Latest / Best of the NFL Podcast Network / Week 7 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Transcript

Week 7 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund · Best of the NFL Podcast Network

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're going streaking. I'm here
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Friedland.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Streak in college, of course, not I'm talking about a winning.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: Streak that me and you were freaking on the quad.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: No, I definitely was not a person that did that.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I didn't really know anyone there was that really a thing.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think so well.
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: Boston College didn't have like sororities or fraternities, so I
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: think that's like a like a frat situation.
• 0:31
  Speaker 4: Not like I.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Might urizing this, but I was in a fraternity which
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: was at Two Lane University at O.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Okay, what's the like acronym? Like, what is it?
• 0:40
  Speaker 4: Alpha, taue, mega, and uh, like what's.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: The like you know, Essay is saying everywhere.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: It's a it's a great embarrassment to me. And yet
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: we had a lot of fun, you know, like it
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: wasn't It wasn't like fraternities everywhere else where. Like I
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: didn't live in the house, I didn't ever pay any dues.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: It was just you went out to bar and you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: had fun. It was New Orleans, Okay. When I said
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: we're going streaking, Yep. I'm mentioning how the sun is
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: shining brighter on us in Los Angeles. The food is
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: tasting better because me and you between us have had
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: two straight winning weeks. So if you add it all up,
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: that's four straight winning weeks between the two of us.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: And yeah, if you're watching on YouTube, you can see
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: our season total. We're still under five hundred, but we're
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: getting close. And the reality is we're on the right
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: track right now. Another two in one week. And if
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I had just stuck with my Seahawks, I was worried
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: about them last week. They were they would have been
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: my third game I got right. But I got Atlanta
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: and the Rams right. You got Miami and New England
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: right last week? Where are you going first this week?
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Three games every week against the spread.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: So I'm doing this more for the comedic effect than
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: any thing, because I know that there is a team
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: that has really, like you've been chasing this team all
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: season long and they have done you dirty, and my
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: model finally picked them to win, so and I know
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: we did. One of those losses has been this stupid team. However,
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: I think that the Jets, I think that they win
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: straight up wow, which means that the Jets are let's
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: see the what's the one if it was one or
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: one and a half, But does it really matter.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: I know they're one and a half point underdog. Sorry,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: but I think they started as favorites. People bet it
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: the other way. We're taping this. They are one and
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs to the Carolina Panthers at three
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: and three.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: Okay, so for whatever whatever side of it says the
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: Jets win, I'll take whatever.
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: Side of it.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, so even if they lost by one, then I'm
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: so you would be good in this scenario.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: That's right.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I stopped chasing them two weeks ago. I finally got
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: off that narcotic It's felt great. Although they did cover
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: last week against the Broncos.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: That game was hard to watch. It was a hard watch.
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: Are you you were in person?
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: You got to London on Friday evening and then we're
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: gone Monday morning.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: That is a quick turnaround.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: And the Jets while you were there, they left Europe
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: with more less passing yards than when they arrived.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: That's not a good that's not a good sign. And
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: I love this season. Okay, so, but I so give
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: me the Jet's case. The real football case. Two things
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: really stand out in this matchup against the Panthers. The
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: Panthers who have not brought a lot of pressure all season.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: Now I watched a breaking point from the sideline there.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: Those teammates were not happy for Jets s Garett Wilson.
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: So now we see something where I mean just a
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Field was holding onto the ball for far too long.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: He shouldn't have been sacked nine nine times. That's a
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: ridiculous number. So they're going to have to change some things.
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: It is time. It is hard to lose all of
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: your games in a season. This is a good opportunity
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: to leverage Breeze Hall's effectiveness in the rung game. He's
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: tied for the second most explosive runs with fourteen in
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: the NFL.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: That's a huge deal.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: On the other side, Jermaine Johnson being back, that is
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: a huge upgrade. Michael Clemens and Jermaine Johnson. It's two
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: ends of the spectrum here. And I don't mean to
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: be mean to him because he is I'm sure he's
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: a very nice man.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know him as a professional. He's made a
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: lot of money doing what he did.
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: And Michael Clements correct, Yeah, but he can't set the edge.
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: Big upgrade for Jermaine Johnson. Yeah, he looked good last week.
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: Jermaine Johnson is a big deal, and in this one
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: where I don't think they're sure. Tedorow McMillan is great,
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: but this is not the same. You know, the Broncos
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: defense is really scary, like you got to. I mean,
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: that's a hard defense to navigate no matter who you are.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: I just think that the balance point of this will
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: be better.
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: I'm hoping you're right. I'm staying far away from that one.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: I kind of just think it's funny more than anything else.
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: Like I'm here for the comedy as well.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I don't have a hot take on that game at all.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I actually really like four games this week. So Okay,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: it's very difficult because we have to narrow it down
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: by one. So I might go through all four and
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: you can help me maybe cancel one out, but I'm
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: going to start with Arizona plus six and a half
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: hosting the Green Bay Packers.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: Who do you think the quarterback is?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: I think it's probably Jacoby Brissett, but Kyler Murray was
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: at practice on Wednesday. Generally, if a starting quarterback is
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: limited at practice on a Wednesday. He will start that game.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not worried about who the quarterback is. I might
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: prefer Jacoby Brissett. Their offense looked good last week, more
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: under center round.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: I have a greater output for Arizona with Jacoby Brissett
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: than Kyler Murray as well.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Just so, okay, so they have a bye next week,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: and just reading between the lines with the National Insiders,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: it sounded like they would prefer to rest Kyler through
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: the by to make sure that he stays one hundred percent.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: We will see, but the number here is too big
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: for me either way. Okay, nobody's beating the Cardinals by
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: more than four so far, and they've played some good teams.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: They played Seattle, they played San Francisco, they played Indianapolis.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: They actually have a plus scoring differential on the season.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: They are they are the example of what the NFL
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: is all about this year, which is one score games
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: and a big fat middle.
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: They are more like a three and three team.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, even their wins this year are by wine score,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: so they played in seven sixth straight one score games. Meanwhile,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: the Packers, I think they should be one of the
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: best teams in the league, but they haven't really performed
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: like it on a consistent basis. They're like seventh or
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: eighth in DVOA. Overall, I just think this Cardinals team
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: needs this game so bad, and I do sometimes go
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: with desperation. They're at home, they're before the bye, it's
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: a big moment for them. They have their offensive line
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: in place for the first time really since the very
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: beginning of last year. I think their defense is well coached,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: and show me the Green Bay game other than against Cincinnati.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: They didn't even really do it against Sin tonight where
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: they're like running away. Yeah, that's a long time ago.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: That's Week one. So on the road, I do not
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: trust them to go and get this done. I just
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: think it's going to be a close game at the end. Yeah, no,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, Okay, I have the same.
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: I have the same I do have the Packers winning
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: the Packers, I have them winning, but I have Arizona
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: keeping it close.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I I thought for our show game debut of taking
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals straight up, I just I just can imagine
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: it that they have a win that turns their season around.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: But I don't need the win here. It's like why
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: I talked about last week. When I went with Atlanta,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I was like, I don't need the win, they just
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: need to cover. And same thing with the Patriots a
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: couple weeks ago. Maybe they will win. So if you're
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: into that, whatever, whatever the number is on the you're
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't I wouldn't tell you not to do that.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: So Arizona plus six and a half is my first one.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: All right, you're up next.
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: Okay, what's the number you're seeing for Jacksonville and the Rams?
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: The Rams are favorite IC three. Yes, okay, I think
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville wins.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Wow, straight up, straight up? Now tell me interesting. Are
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: you really gonna love NFL Daily forever?
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: You know? Yep?
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: Oh oh oh okay, yeah, we're old. We're really old.
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: If anyone gets that, congratulations.
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: People are going to get it's popular song.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: It's a great song. A couple of things.
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: One, I don't think Poka nukula will play, and I
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: don't think that's accurately priced into this line. So without pukakua,
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: the math becomes quite different. Matthew Stafford's passer rating with
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: targeting Devonte Adams or everyone else just a lot worse.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: Pooka is so important to this offense, and not to
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: say that Sean McVay can't figure some things out, but
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: the Jags defense is pretty good.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: They're without Devin Lloyd, who is the league's interception leader,
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: but they've got a number of other pieces that are
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: also pretty good. Even though they're not getting a ton
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: of pressure up front, the things that they're doing on
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: the back end are helping them out significantly so. And
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: the Jags, by the way, like London's their second home.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: They have this is we talk about it all the time.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: They've played fourteen games abroad or something. This will be
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: their fourteenth game. They're seven to six all in London.
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: I think that they have a better like like the
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: day they get the schedule is more set.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: The Rams will get there till Saturday. Do you know
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: your heart?
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: That is?
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: I mean, I just did that, and I'm like, I'm
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: an old a regular old analyst. I'm not trying to
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: run at people and hit things and be violent. I
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: was just trying to get to London, you know.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Right knowing that organization, there's certainly one that is into
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: sleep science and everything like that, and I think there's
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of disagreeing theories of what's better for your
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: body clock. They determined that staying in Baltimore all week.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: They're not doing any media over there. They're arriving, like
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: you said, Saturday morning, and then we'll play twenty four
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: hours later. That is the latest any team's ever showed up.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Plenty of teams have showed up on Friday. The Chiefs,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I think, traditionally show up late in the week. That
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: do you feel weird getting off the plane? Absolutely, it
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: takes it's a it's a problem. If anything else, maybe
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: this is what the science is saying. I feel better
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: for the first twenty four to thirty six hours. Maybe
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: it's like it's almost still like a rush, and then
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: it sets in. That is difficult. I am with you.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I had the Jaguars covering the spread. It's not one
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: of the games I considered. I have the Rams winning,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: so I don't feel strong about that game. I do
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: wonder if this Jaguars offensive line is not as good
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: as we thought. They played some good opponent for them,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: like easy opponents early, and then last week they did
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: not look good. They're without they were without their center.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: I think that could be a big deal if he
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: doesn't return. But we don't know that far.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: I think both things are true.
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think it's as good as the I
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: think it was like three sacks or four weeks something crazy.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Either four sacks or three weeks or three sex beforeus
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: either way.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: And they had two games where they didn't give up
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: a pressure that's right, including against the fact I.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Think that was a little food gayzy.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: But I also think that it's a little bit false
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: to say that they're as bad as they looked against
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: the Seahawks as well. So I think both things are true.
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: I mostly think that the ability for Travis etn to
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: get some chunk yards plays. I know he was held
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: to just what twenty seven yards last week against Seahawk
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: sets very different defense. They don't have the back end
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: pieces on the Rams that are quite as great at
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: helping out, especially in that kind of run situation coverage
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: than they do on compared to the Seahawks. So the
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: Rams are they're just a different there's different teams.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you attack them on the ground. I think the
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Jaguars have an advantage there that the Rams one of
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: the best rushing teams in the league. The Jaguars maybe
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: a little better set up to stop the run.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: That's close to a coin flip game for me.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I am glad that we're sending all our UK London
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: residents a better game this week because the two games
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: overseas so far, really all three, if you go back
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: to Dublin, have been very close down to the wire
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: and they've all had moments.
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: But that I do feel a little bad about.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Sending Broncos Jets over there, And so I think we're
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: wrapping up the London portion with the best game yet.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Two good four and two teams. Okay, Like I said,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I have four picks. You're gonna help me cancel one out.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: The first one was Arizona. The second one is such
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: a funky line Tampa Bay plus five and a half
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: that I feel like Vegas is trying to get everyone
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: to go with the Bucks. Or maybe they don't think
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: like that, like Patrick says, and maybe that's just what
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the numbers say. And I know if you peek beneath
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the hood, the Bucks haven't been as good really as
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: the record would indicate. But you know, they are like
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: number one in a lot of people's power rankings. They're
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: number literally the number one seed in the NFC right now.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I think for a reason, and that's that they're getting better.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: They're actually getting healthier. And the reason I love this
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: and man, I have a hard time even picking the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: lines to win straight up, although I did, but I
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: have it as a one point game is the Lions injuries.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: It's a disaster week for them. They don't have their
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: two starting cornerbacks and they have to go up against
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield, and they don't have Brian Branch who's suspended.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, Kirby Joseph doesn't look one
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: hundred percent. He's not really at practice. Taylor Decker, the
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: left tackle, might return to practice. He's up up in
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: the air as we're taping. Put it all up there,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: and like, man, you're giving me five and a half
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: points for one of the best teams in the NFL.
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: I love that one. I'm taking the bucks.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I have.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: I have a three point win for Detroit. So I'm
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: on the same side as you about that one. I
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: did not. I think that it was the combination of
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, a mecha Buka is not playing for sure,
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: Mike Evans.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: I think he's back.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I'm going to assume Evans is priced is into my
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: pricing as back just on the optimism that Todd Bowles is.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Saying, sure, but is he one hundred like back or back?
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: Right?
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Because Chris Godwin was back a couple of weeks back,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: you know, like, so he's not back anymore, by the way.
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: No, he's unback. He went back to being unbacked whatever the.
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: Finn at receiver. But yeah, they've shown that they can
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: overcome that.
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: Of course, but but it helps against the that helps
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: the Lions, because I mean, look what we saw from
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: the Lions last week against Patrick Mahomes was getting crushed
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: when Patrick used an intermediate pass. Just death by a
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: thousand paper cuts, right, like or intermediate passes are the
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: paper cuts here. But I don't think that the see
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: the difference is is Baker's ability to have you know,
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: there's no Xavier Worthy plus Hollywood Brown plus Travis Kelce
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: plus they just don't have that debt.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: I give you a Ted Johnson. How about a little.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: You try to sell me on a test?
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: How about like an aged nineteen or in maybe two
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: thousand nineteen version of Sterling Shepherd's kind of like popping up,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: I hear you. But that's why I took the lines
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: ultimately to win, and I trust their organization. They haven't
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: lost too straight for three years. Now, you trust me,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: I've seen it. You don't think that matters, but I
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: do think, like great teams, great organizations, it's tough for
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: them to lose twice in a row. I think they
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: have a big time home field advantage, and that's why
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's a coin flip. I'd absolutely picked the
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Bucks if it was in Tampa, but since it's in Detroit,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the minds to win. But I wouldn't be
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: surprised with Bucks win straight up, doesn't matter. Five and
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: a half points.
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: Is a lot.
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: It's a lot. It's like they're begging us, which I'm
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: I'm a litri. It does feel like a little right,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: I'm at a little kid. Here's some candy for you.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: That does kind of feel.
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: I feel good about it. So Bucks plus five and
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: a half, let's go with your third pick.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: I'm going for some symmetry here. I'm gonna end this
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: one with the Denver Broncos, and I think that they
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: win by more than seven. I think that as good
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: as we've seen the Giants, and I know it's been fun.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: I know they just beat the Eagles. I did watch it.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: I saw it.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: I saw everything, and I saw what happened against the Jets.
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: But ahead of the game, all of those Denver players
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: who had been a week and on the East coast
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: in Philadelphia ahead of going to they were just over it.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: And not to say that that's like you can't factor
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: that into the math. But what I'm looking at here
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: is JK. Dobbins, another guy who's grated explosive runs. That
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: is where the Giants can get got. I also watch
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: these screen passes, and what do the Denver Broncos do
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: screen screen?
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: You want?
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Do you want to? Let's run a screen line? The
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: Giants screen screen screen.
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: And you know who gives up a ton of yards
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: to screen passes?
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: The Giants.
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: So as good as their front is, I think that
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: the O line plus the screen pass plus the run
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: game for the Broncos, and plus how nasty that Denver
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: defense is there, that defense is firing on all cylinders.
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: Nick Bonito is I'm not suggesting that the that the
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: that the front isn't great for the Giants, but the
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: back end and the linebacker level nowhere near the caliber
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: of what the Broncos are bringing.
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: Love it.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: What does your computer model do with extra rest?
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: Does it matter at all?
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Depends It depends on the extra rest.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Right, So the Giants in this case, you have four
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: extra days rest and.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: They get weak neighbors back.
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: No, oh okay, now that would be a difference.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: He's going to be out the rest of the year.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: That's priced into all their numbers. They get the extra rest,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: and Denver's coming all the way back from London. Sometimes
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if you can factor that in,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: but that does seem like a lot.
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: I saw something for what it's worth.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: They're the they're the first team, like in Mountain or
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Pacific to ever come back from London and play the
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: next week. It's usually up to the teams if they
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: want to take the buy the next week after going overseas,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: they do not have.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: It's also alumni weekend, and if you're into like this
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: sort of thing, they're honoring de Marius Thomas in this one,
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: so and you know he's like the heartbeat up. I'm
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: just saying, so if you're looking at these extra factors,
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: it's alumni weekend. DT's getting his whatever. The version of
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: the Broncos Ring of Honor is whatever that.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Is, and so I've kept this in my pocket. But
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: I disagree who I strongly disagree. But I'm happy that
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: you took the Broncos minus seven because what it did
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: for me is it made up my mind which pick
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: of mine I'm going to eliminate because Giants plus seven
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: was one of my four picks I really liked. And
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: I want us both to shine right now. We are
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: both on a winning streak despite one of your only
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: two losses in the last two weeks combined was when
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: we went head to head. I don't want to guarantee
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: one of us is getting a loss when we each
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: winning weeks back to back weeks. So I will just
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: put that in my pocket. That's just an extra pick.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Everyone who's listening knows I feel differently, and I will
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: make the case just briefly, which is okay. I made
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: the rest case, which I think matters a little bit
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: to me. They both just played Philadelphia. If you're going
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: to do the pythagoream theorem, I mean, who looked like it.
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: Was like the biggest thing ever was.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: When j Where's Jalen Carter? How do you factor him
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: not playing? Okay, that's fair he's like, I don't like this,
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: I'm just playing.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: We both are feeling great after beating the Eagles. I mean,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: the Giants looked even more impressive beating the Eagles. I
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: liked what I thought saw out of the Giants defense
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: last week. I thought they were more creative, really.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Confused, they more creative or I think they.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Stole some stuff from the Broncos because they were sure,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: but they were showing more of like.
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: Tell me what you're thinking about that Eagles offense being
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: creative and I will wait.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: Right, fair, I will wait.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: But what they did was they showed some of the
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: simulated press that they wanted wanted. They showed some post
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: snap movement, like the things that we haven't seen out
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: of Shane Bowen and that Giants defense very often. I
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: thought they did well, like some run blitzes, all this stuff.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, that's great. And then the bigger
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: factor here is you know since Jackson Dart took over. Yeah,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: they're two and one and they've covered twice the Broncos.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: And I was thinking about this because they are not
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: they the Saints and you know why five Street term
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: uh huh.
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: You know, you know what happens when you have a
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: lot of pressure, like the most pressure in the league.
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that could happen.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: You know how many times the Broncos have covered all year,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: because I was thinking about it.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: They have not really had many convincing games.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: And that's why when I see seven and I wouldn't
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: be that shocked if the underdog wins the game, which
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: I personally would not be that shocked this week obviously
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: you would.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: Then I just like taking that many points.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: The Broncos have only covered twice all year, you know,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Once was as the underdog to the Eagles, which by
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: the way, was my pick that week.
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: The other time was against the Bengals.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: You pack them straight up, but they've They've had some
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: spots where they're heavy favorites against the Titans and and
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: other times where their favorites and they and they haven't won.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: So I just thought, if you look at these two teams,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I think they're closer than people think.
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: But you disagree.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: And the math the model has been right again and
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: again over the years for good reasons. So I'm happy
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: to just have that be my just put put it
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: in the pocket. So what's the official Oh, that's right,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: I need it's Chiefs minus eleven and a half. It's
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: not fun. You made fun of me last week for
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: switching into like rams or like that's not exciting. And
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: their minus seven and a half against the Ravens. It's
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: all exciting when you know, you get exciting. Yes, so
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: to be this is just an old school Kansas City team.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: You you probably don't have these numbers right in front
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: of you because they might ask you ahead of time,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: But just do you have an overall efficiency metric for
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: offense and defense? Because okay, what what is the Chiefs
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: right now on offense?
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: Well?
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: If factors in the whole season? Are you talking week?
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: I mean even the whole season, the whole season.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I'm guessing it's really high for what it's worth.
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: I'll let you look it up.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: Look at it.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, DVOA has them as the number two offense now
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: in the league and the number eighteen defense. No, that's perfect,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: and like what is the defense? Somewhere more in the middle.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I would guess it's an old school Chiefs team, is my.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: After last week it's fourteen?
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is these are the Chiefs teams we
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: grew up, you know, we were just little kids when
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: they little whip, when when they were going up and
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: down the field and Patrick Mahomes was winning his first MVP. Uh,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: it's an old school type of Chiefs team that I
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: can recognize. A great offensive line and I'm maybe a
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: good to great offensive line, Mahomes making plays on the move,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Mahomes making plays down the field, and then team of speed.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: You are taking Juju Smith Schuster off the field, going
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: from probably about forty snaps to about twelve. He'll be
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: in there for run blocking. And then you are inserting
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Rashi Rice into those snaps almost the same role, who
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: looked fantastic by the end of last year, who I
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: just think is gonna take off, and you have him
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: and Worthy and when they want to use Thorton on
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: the field all at the same time. Man, this is
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: a fast defense with a lot of pass pro against
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: a Raiders team that just can't protect.
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: Forget it. Yeah, I mean put up thirty five to fourteen.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: I apologize to Gino Smith, but I just think this
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Raiders seems one of the worst teams in the league.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Since twenty eighteen.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: The win margin averaged for the Chiefs thirteen point three points.
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: So I'm actually with you, I have a thirteen point win.
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: Let's go for she Rice. This was interesting. You know
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: how conservative my model tends to be. Yes, well, prior
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: I looked at it like without and with Rashie Rich
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: just because I was curious what difference he would make
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: in this one.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: And it's one full point.
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: That's a lot, lot for a receiver.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: That's a lot for me.
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: Like, that's like, that's I mean, there's some quarterbacks that
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: don't give a one.
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: Point that's great, that's crazy.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: But it's also the matchup, right, the matchup where you
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: now have you know, the secondary of the Raiders, this
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: one where it's not maybe the strongest.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you've talked about the intermediate game last week for
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and you can you can imagine the safeties,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the linebackers for the Raiders getting picked on. All right,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: your picks are Denver plus seven or minus seven rautds.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: I say I'll take Denver plus seven all day. There
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: we go.
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: You have the Broncos as a touchdown favorite at home.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: You have the Jets as a one and a half
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: point underdog doggy at home.
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: Just that's spicy.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: And then you have the Jaguars in London technically a
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: home game, but we.
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: Know that it's a neutral game.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: I would say for this so that the Jaguars will
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: have more fans than the Rams there.
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: I think those fans are hilarious. I was a big fan.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: Like they're just fans of the whole sport, the songs,
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: all of it. You know you've been the fans are great.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: Fans are awesome.
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: I've been to a lot of the international games.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Now, the Dublin crowd was different because it was a
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Steelers home game. It was really crazy to see a
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Steelers home game in Dublin. But so many Dublin and
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Steelers fans and so many people just travel traveled for
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: that game. Patrick Queen even said it afterwards like they
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: were louder throughout than the home crowd in Pittsburgh. But
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: this this week, it'll just be a great celebration of football.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: My picks, you crossed me out from going Giants plus seven.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: I don't want to go against you, so that's just
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: an extra one. But I go Chiefs minus eleven and
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: a half, Bucks plus five and a half and the
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Cardinals the other one.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Just keep it an eye the Cardinals, you're getting five
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: and a half to six and a half, six and
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: a half for the Cardinals.
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: Do not take that point away.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: Sorry, no, no, no, I thought it was five and a half.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: So six and a half.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: It's a juicy one. I was hoping it get up
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: to seven. It did not. I was keeping an eye
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: on that Washington game. But now the injury reports so weird.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: With Deebo and Terry mcclaurin.
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: I think that whatever the number is, whatever the number is, though, yeah,
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: I think that it's too low. I think that's going
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: to be like to the Moon game.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Oh in terms of the over under, I got you. Yeah,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: I agree with you on that as well. So just
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on the injury pere. I do kind
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: of like the Commanders. All right, that is it for
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: our Week seven picks. We're making some progress here in
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: terms of the season, and we're making progress in terms
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: of our picks. We will be back Sunday night myself,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Patrick Claybahn, Jordan rod Rigg, and Nick Shook for your
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Week seven recap.
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: We will see you that