Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/29/26: UK Terror Suspects On Bail, Texas Diesel Emergency, Trump Diehards Jump Ship

Transcript

9/29/26: UK Terror Suspects On Bail, Texas Diesel Emergency, Trump Diehards Jump Ship · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here and we
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Speaker 1: here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we
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Speaker 1: can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.
0:20
Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody.
0:26
Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What
0:28
Speaker 2: do we have first of all?
0:29
Speaker 1: Indeed we do. We've got some pretty odd updates for
0:32
Speaker 1: you in the alleged terror attempt in the UK. So
0:36
Speaker 1: some theories we can float of what exactly the hell
0:38
Speaker 1: is going on here. So we'll break that down for you.
0:40
Speaker 1: We've also got Trump out denying a Barack Ravid report
0:43
Speaker 1: that he had offered some concessions to the Iranians. So
0:47
Speaker 1: we'll dig into the very latest there. Logan Phillips is
0:49
Speaker 1: going to join us for an update on where things
0:51
Speaker 1: stand as we get closer to the midterms. We're going
0:54
Speaker 1: to look in particular at the state of Mississippi, where
0:57
Speaker 1: Democrats are urging donors to spend money. Is this a
1:01
Speaker 1: fool's errand or is something real happening there? We've also
1:05
Speaker 1: got Garrison Lovely joining us to talk about his new book,
1:09
Speaker 1: which is about the automation threat against American workers posed
1:13
Speaker 1: by AI. But there's also a lot of other developments
1:15
Speaker 1: there as well. Open AI is actually pulling their new
1:19
Speaker 1: model that was supposed to be released out of safety concerns.
1:22
Speaker 1: They've also halted all training of new models internally. So
1:26
Speaker 1: it seems like something big is going on there. We
1:28
Speaker 1: don't know exactly what. We're also going to turn our
1:32
Speaker 1: eyes to Israel, where there are new revelations about just
1:34
Speaker 1: how much Netanyahu knew before October 7th. This comes as
1:38
Speaker 1: he is also facing an election. I think it's literally
1:40
Speaker 1: the day before the U.S. election for the midterms. here.
1:43
Speaker 1: And finally, we're going to take a look at DraftKings.
1:45
Speaker 1: There was a ProPublica reporter that posed as a gambler
1:49
Speaker 1: with problematic habits, instantly was flooded with offers and VIP status,
1:54
Speaker 1: et cetera. So revealed an awful lot about DraftKings business practices.
1:58
Speaker 3: Yeah.
1:58
Speaker 2: I want to take everybody through this just to show
2:00
Speaker 2: how these companies operate. And there's also a lot of
2:02
Speaker 2: other updates that are on the gambling front. Continues to
2:05
Speaker 2: sweep the nation. Week three of the NFL set a
2:08
Speaker 2: new record on PolyMarket and everywhere else. And so, you know,
2:12
Speaker 2: the mass bankrupting of America continues. Thank you to everybody
2:15
Speaker 2: who has been signing up, breakingpoints.com. Do not use $ 10
2:18
Speaker 2: on a parlay. Put it towards our free month trial instead.
2:22
Speaker 2: There you go. You know, that's a good pitch. The
2:24
Speaker 2: other pitch is if everybody signs up today, if we get,
2:27
Speaker 2: let's say, 50 people who sign up today, I will
2:30
Speaker 2: buy baklava for the entire crew. I was telling Chris,
2:33
Speaker 2: I said all day yesterday after baklava, all I could
2:36
Speaker 2: think about is sitting in Turkey having a glass of
2:40
Speaker 2: A glass of apple, elma chai, apple tea if you've
2:42
Speaker 2: never had it. It's incredible. And a nice baklava. And
2:45
Speaker 2: so that's what I'm going to buy for all of
2:46
Speaker 2: our crew. If 50 people.
2:48
Speaker 1: Make it happen, people.
2:49
Speaker 2: So make it happen. Don't do it for me. Do
2:51
Speaker 2: it for everybody else. I'll even buy baklava for Ryan.
2:54
Speaker 1: Sagar, did you see that on the DraftKings thing? Did
2:57
Speaker 1: you see Lula is banning gambling apps in Brazil?
3:00
Speaker 2: Glenn always sends me all the updates out of it. Brazil,
3:03
Speaker 2: thank you. Thank you so much. for what you're doing.
3:06
Speaker 2: You know, sorry, aside, I'll just say it here. What
3:08
Speaker 2: has happened in Brazil is the future of our country.
3:11
Speaker 2: So remember that they had the mass cash wealth, the
3:14
Speaker 2: wealth transfer program, which was one of the most successful
3:17
Speaker 2: poverty alleviating programs for a decade. Then they legalized sports gambling.
3:20
Speaker 2: Almost 70% of that cash went right back into the
3:23
Speaker 2: sports betting companies and everybody in the poverty class, which
3:28
Speaker 2: was you know, largely it was using the money actually
3:30
Speaker 2: for good up to that point, massively addicted to soccer betting.
3:34
Speaker 2: So banning it there is incredibly important. It eviscerated the
3:38
Speaker 2: entire efficacy of their welfare program. And so I think,
3:41
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously I think we're going to have the
3:42
Speaker 2: same problem here. So thank you, Brazil, seriously, for finally
3:46
Speaker 2: waking up. They were ground zero for sports betting. And
3:49
Speaker 2: I think that's what it's going to look like here
3:51
Speaker 2: very soon. Anyway, with all that out of the way,
3:53
Speaker 2: let's get to Iran. As Crystal said, some updates on
3:56
Speaker 2: the terror attack. Let's put A1 up here on the screen.
4:00
Speaker 2: As one does after uncovering a national state-sponsored terrorist attack,
4:07
Speaker 2: all five men have now been arrested, have now been
4:11
Speaker 2: released on bail over the alleged Royal Air Force Base
4:15
Speaker 2: Fairford terror plot. And so what they say is that, quote,
4:20
Speaker 2: they are subject to stringent conditions on their movement and
4:23
Speaker 2: contact with others, They remain under investigation as we explore
4:27
Speaker 2: multiple lines of inquiry. Well, obviously, as we all know,
4:32
Speaker 2: anybody seriously accused of being an Iranian sleeper agent building
4:37
Speaker 2: bombs about to blow up a U.S. B-1 or a
4:40
Speaker 2: B-2 is not getting released on bail. And as I
4:44
Speaker 2: understand it in the U.K., there are two types of
4:47
Speaker 2: conditions where if you are booked on a criminal charge,
4:50
Speaker 2: like You know, just like normal criminal stuff. You are
4:54
Speaker 2: eligible for bail, which is what these guys were released on.
4:57
Speaker 2: If you are charged under terrorism circumstances, the police there
5:02
Speaker 2: have up to two weeks to actually hold you before
5:05
Speaker 2: they can release you. So that tells you a little
5:08
Speaker 2: bit about what's happening here. What also is what we
5:11
Speaker 2: know out of it is that, quote, no viable explosives
5:15
Speaker 2: were even found. Let's put A2 on the screen. This
5:18
Speaker 2: is from Alex Wickham. He is the UK political editor
5:22
Speaker 2: over at Bloomberg News. He says, after examination, the three
5:25
Speaker 2: white vans found at Fairford did not contain, quote, viable explosives.
5:30
Speaker 2: If they had, fairly obviously, they would not have been
5:33
Speaker 2: released on bail. That does not mean the case is closed,
5:36
Speaker 2: the incident is still being considered serious, and the men's activity, quote,
5:39
Speaker 2: potentially nefarious. They remain under investigation. They're pursuing multiple lines
5:43
Speaker 2: of inquiry, including that they were acting either knowingly or
5:46
Speaker 2: unknowingly at the behest of a foreign state. And UK
5:49
Speaker 2: authorities were aware of an increased threat at Fairford and
5:52
Speaker 2: had heightened security at the base as a result. So
5:55
Speaker 2: I think this is my personal theory outside of justifies
5:58
Speaker 2: false flag. And this is what's being floated out there.
6:01
Speaker 2: Either this was literally just a bunch of like criminal
6:04
Speaker 2: thugs stealing diesel from a bunch of farmers, which is
6:08
Speaker 2: being floated widely in the UK. Or or it's some
6:13
Speaker 2: sort of like weird false flag incident gone wrong because
6:16
Speaker 2: Miss Farmer happened to be driving down the road at
6:19
Speaker 2: midnight and watch these guys all just like kind of scram.
6:23
Speaker 2: And I mean, these aren't even mutually exclusive. They had
6:26
Speaker 2: to blow the whole thing up and now they have
6:27
Speaker 2: to kind of cover their tracks and hopefully the entire thing.
6:31
Speaker 2: What is confusing on top of all of this is
6:34
Speaker 2: that the administration still continues to talk as if it's
6:37
Speaker 2: some potential terror attack by Iran. But no, they never
6:41
Speaker 2: say the word Iran. Right. The word Iran has not
6:43
Speaker 2: yet appeared from the president or the secretary of state.
6:46
Speaker 1: So put a five B up because this is the
6:48
Speaker 1: diesel thief theory, which is kind of does make some
6:53
Speaker 1: sense here. This person says it makes sense. The five
6:56
Speaker 1: men arrested were out stealing red diesel, which is the
6:58
Speaker 1: particular dyed red diesel. I did not know any of this,
7:01
Speaker 1: by the way, until the diesel crisis that's used in agriculture.
7:04
Speaker 1: from vulnerable farm bousers. I guess that's how that's pronounced.
7:08
Speaker 1: Do you know that word?
7:09
Speaker 2: Bousers.
7:09
Speaker 1: I presume that's the storage tanks on farms. Anyway, thefts
7:12
Speaker 1: of farm diesel are up over 300% in 2026 as
7:14
Speaker 1: the diesel price shot up. After Trump-Netanyahu's elective war against Iran,
7:20
Speaker 1: the fake fuel company signage would be good cover for
7:22
Speaker 1: diesel thieves. Because on their white vans, they had fake, like,
7:27
Speaker 1: fuel company signs indicating that they were the type that
7:31
Speaker 1: would distribute fuel to a farm or pump your fuel
7:34
Speaker 1: or whatever. Oil barrels in the vans also consistent with
7:37
Speaker 1: fuel thefts. Pumps for emptying farm vows were probably found
7:40
Speaker 1: as well. Just some London lads nicking diesel from vulnerable
7:43
Speaker 1: farms would explain the early release on bail while the
7:45
Speaker 1: media hyperventilation about terrorism continues. I think that's probably the
7:49
Speaker 1: most likely explanation. However, I will say one weird thing
7:54
Speaker 1: here is that the farmer who spotted the men says,
7:58
Speaker 1: number one, no authorities have reached out to her to
8:02
Speaker 1: be like, what did you see? Tell me everything. That's
8:06
Speaker 1: kind of weird. Even if it is just, like, fuel theft,
8:10
Speaker 1: you would want to know, okay, what happened? What did
8:12
Speaker 1: you see?
8:12
Speaker 4: Where?
8:13
Speaker 2: When? Why?
8:14
Speaker 1: Like, how many men? And that's the other piece, is
8:16
Speaker 1: she says there were more than five. So remember, they
8:19
Speaker 1: arrested five. Five have now been released on bail. She's
8:22
Speaker 1: adamant that there were more than five men who she
8:25
Speaker 1: saw involved in this. Let's go ahead and play A5.
8:28
Speaker 5: We suddenly saw a large group of men And they
8:32
Speaker 5: were panicking. And I think the reason, well, I suppose
8:35
Speaker 5: they were panicking because anyone saw them, but our vehicle
8:37
Speaker 5: is quite similar to the patrol vehicles that they use.
8:40
Speaker 5: And we had our lights on main beam because there
8:43
Speaker 5: wasn't another car. So I think we sort of dazzled
8:45
Speaker 5: them and they started to run. And some of them
8:48
Speaker 5: ran straight ahead across the road into the field and
8:51
Speaker 5: some turned and started going down towards Kempsford, which is
8:55
Speaker 5: our next village. And also a slightly more obvious part
9:00
Speaker 5: of the fence that runs along the airbase so then
9:05
Speaker 5: I they was it's really hard it's such a flash
9:09
Speaker 5: moment of seeing them but there were definitely more than
9:12
Speaker 5: five we think maybe between eight and ten of them
9:16
Speaker 5: were there at that point And a lot of them
9:20
Speaker 5: had their faces covered. They were all wearing like, it
9:22
Speaker 5: looked like similar, almost you'd have thought perhaps it was
9:25
Speaker 5: like what they've been told to wear, quite similar, like
9:29
Speaker 5: slim fitting clothes. So then I realised this was probably
9:35
Speaker 5: something a bit more unusual than undercover policemen parked in
9:40
Speaker 5: some vans.
9:41
Speaker 6: How do you feel that West Reading defence secretary said
9:45
Speaker 6: you didn't have the full picture?
9:47
Speaker 5: I just don't know how he knows what picture I've got.
9:49
Speaker 1: I've never met him.
9:51
Speaker 5: Nobody, literally nobody in any sort of official capacity has
9:57
Speaker 5: been in touch with me or anyone else.
10:00
Speaker 1: No one in any official capacity has been in touch
10:04
Speaker 1: with me she says that there were more than five
10:07
Speaker 1: she does say look it was quick I just got
10:09
Speaker 1: a glance but she says I'm confident there were more
10:11
Speaker 1: than five I'm thinking eight to ten I don't know
10:13
Speaker 1: it's it's all a little odd it's all a little odd.
10:16
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, the Secretary of State was on Fox News last night.
10:19
Speaker 2: He says, quote, it's a foreign actor. Take a listen.
10:23
Speaker 7: Well, let me preface by saying that I have to
10:25
Speaker 7: be careful. There's some things I cannot say on the
10:27
Speaker 7: air for a lot of different reasons. Suffice it to
10:29
Speaker 7: say that what happened, what almost happened, what could have
10:32
Speaker 7: happened in the UK over the weekend is a very
10:34
Speaker 7: serious situation. It's one that clearly involves the hands of
10:38
Speaker 7: a foreign actor. I won't get into great detail about
10:41
Speaker 7: that yet. I do want to thank the authorities in
10:44
Speaker 7: the United Kingdom who have been very cooperative. And on
10:46
Speaker 7: top of it, I know a lot of people are
10:47
Speaker 7: disturbed by the news that some of these people have
10:50
Speaker 7: been released on bail as it was some of the
10:52
Speaker 7: people who are being investigated. And obviously we're engaging with
10:55
Speaker 7: them on all of that. But suffice it to say
10:57
Speaker 7: that beyond that, I would argue that they've been very
10:59
Speaker 7: cooperative and very helpful on something that's very serious incident.
11:02
Speaker 7: And I think it ties us to the reality here.
11:04
Speaker 7: And that is we are dealing with elements in the
11:06
Speaker 7: world And in the case of Iran, for example, who
11:09
Speaker 7: have openly threatened to attack American interests globally. We're going
11:13
Speaker 7: to always take that very seriously. There'll be repercussions for
11:15
Speaker 7: that if it ever were to happen or even attempted.
11:18
Speaker 7: But what happened this weekend could have been and was,
11:20
Speaker 7: I think, a very serious threat. And I want to
11:23
Speaker 7: thank the UK for their cooperation and their help on it.
11:25
Speaker 7: There's a lot more news that will come out on
11:26
Speaker 7: this in the days to come. But there's only so
11:29
Speaker 7: much I can say right now at this point about
11:31
Speaker 7: it other than this is a very serious thing. And
11:34
Speaker 7: it was responded to appropriately.
11:37
Speaker 2: A very serious, I don't know, this whole thing stinks
11:41
Speaker 2: to me. Very serious situation. They won't blame me. If
11:44
Speaker 2: it was Iran, they would say it, okay? They would know.
11:47
Speaker 2: What are they waiting for to play out? It's not
11:50
Speaker 2: like they're going to affect the UK legal process. Is there, what,
11:54
Speaker 2: their handler or something that they're trying to target? Between
11:59
Speaker 2: the woman and spotting them, the circumstances that this all
12:03
Speaker 2: went down, And on top of them being released on bail,
12:06
Speaker 2: the fact that nobody will actually say Iran in an
12:09
Speaker 2: official capacity, you take from that.
12:11
Speaker 1: He just gestures towards, and keep in mind, we have
12:14
Speaker 1: this adversary who said blah, blah, blah. But he doesn't
12:17
Speaker 1: directly tie the two things together. You're just supposed to
12:19
Speaker 1: infer that that's what they think is going on here.
12:22
Speaker 1: And then they found no explosives.
12:24
Speaker 2: There's no explosives. It's a bunch of dudes in a van.
12:27
Speaker 1: In a van. Well, like a fuel tank. pumping van.
12:31
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's all very odd. And then you
12:33
Speaker 1: add to that, remember, maybe Rubio was just trying to
12:36
Speaker 1: cover for the fact that Trump said this nonsense about like, oh,
12:39
Speaker 1: we've been watching them a long time and we've had
12:41
Speaker 1: our eye on them and finally got them or whatever
12:43
Speaker 1: bullshit that he said.
12:44
Speaker 2: Here's what Trump said. A4, take a listen.
12:47
Speaker 5: What's your reaction to that?
12:49
Speaker 6: And is this connected to Iran?
12:51
Speaker 8: Might be, but I will tell you, I would have said,
12:54
Speaker 8: don't let them have bail, cashless bail. I wonder, is
12:59
Speaker 8: it cashless bail, I guess? That was one of the
13:01
Speaker 8: problems that we had, which started the whole mess of crime.
13:05
Speaker 8: And we're ending cashless bail. But over there, I'm surprised
13:10
Speaker 8: that they released him. I wouldn't have done that. Look,
13:12
Speaker 8: they've been very good. They worked with us very closely.
13:15
Speaker 8: We know everything about him. We would not have released him.
13:19
Speaker 2: It's very vague. They don't know anything. It's just so
13:23
Speaker 2: obvious that they're just talking out. Their mouths. And, you know,
13:27
Speaker 2: another theory I saw was this Fairford base has been
13:30
Speaker 2: under crazy security because of these IRGC threats. And so
13:34
Speaker 2: they could have just been heightened and freaked out.
13:37
Speaker 1: Right.
13:37
Speaker 2: I mean, it's very possible that that's what happened as well.
13:40
Speaker 2: And look. As always with these things, you got to
13:43
Speaker 2: keep a very skeptical mind. Not in the age of
13:45
Speaker 2: Nord Stream. Even today, I see Berlin police says the
13:48
Speaker 2: Kremlin responsible for something. Yeah, all right. Prove it, okay?
13:51
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, it's like you got to release
13:53
Speaker 2: a whole lot of proof before we believe a damn
13:55
Speaker 2: word that you people say.
13:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if I had to guess on this one,
13:58
Speaker 1: they were fuel thieves. Farmer saw them. There's, you know,
14:02
Speaker 1: some maybe a few of them were able to escape
14:04
Speaker 1: and get away. And that's why they only caught five
14:07
Speaker 1: of them. And Trump is just trying to use this
14:10
Speaker 1: incident to further the alleged threat of Iran. To me,
14:14
Speaker 1: that's the most logical explanation. But given the like weird
14:18
Speaker 1: facts around it, you just can't rule anything out, I
14:20
Speaker 1: would say.
14:20
Speaker 2: I still I'm not ruling out some. I mean, it's
14:22
Speaker 2: like remember Watergate, right? got you guys break into the
14:26
Speaker 2: Watergate Hotel. You don't really know anything about it. It
14:28
Speaker 2: seems a little sketchy. You dig a little deeper. They
14:31
Speaker 2: happen to have some connections to the RNC and their
14:33
Speaker 2: cash and all that. But the fact that they got
14:36
Speaker 2: caught is what blew the whole thing open, which initially
14:38
Speaker 2: just seemed like a small burglary. So I'm not ruling
14:41
Speaker 2: out some sort of state operation or something to try
14:45
Speaker 2: to have a precipitating incident and then play it off
14:48
Speaker 2: and say, oh, no, it actually was Iran. And like
14:50
Speaker 2: with a lot of those things that they blamed previously
14:52
Speaker 2: on Iran or Russia in the past, Then it just
14:54
Speaker 2: fades off into the distance. Nobody asks.
14:56
Speaker 1: Don't you feel like, though, if they were trying to
14:58
Speaker 1: pull off some sort of a false flag bullshit narrative,
15:01
Speaker 1: they would have kept these guys under lock and key
15:03
Speaker 1: and not released them on bail? To at least keep
15:05
Speaker 1: up appearances.
15:07
Speaker 2: Well, you know, again, on Watergate, it's like they didn't
15:10
Speaker 2: know what to do. They're like, oh, God, you know,
15:12
Speaker 2: release them. And then hopefully they don't talk. You tell
15:15
Speaker 2: them not to talk. It's like. People have an idea
15:17
Speaker 2: of a well-oiled machine. By the way, the UK may
15:20
Speaker 2: not have even known about it, right? It could have
15:23
Speaker 2: been a US-sponsored thing. It could have been somebody else,
15:25
Speaker 2: some other cutout or something like that. So I'm not
15:29
Speaker 2: ruling anything out. We'll see. We'll see. The diesel fuel thing,
15:32
Speaker 2: it would make sense as well, although that could be
15:34
Speaker 2: a cover. All right, let's get to the next part. Okay,
15:39
Speaker 2: let's turn now to some of the negotiations that were happening.
15:42
Speaker 2: Yesterday was kind of a dizzying day of reporting. It
15:45
Speaker 2: initially appeared that Iran was willing to at least make
15:49
Speaker 2: some negotiation on nuclear issues. Put this up here on
15:53
Speaker 2: the screen. It originated from a Saudi outlet, Al-Hadath. Iran
15:59
Speaker 2: has agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for U.S.
16:03
Speaker 2: sanctions relief. The news comes minutes after reporting indicated that
16:07
Speaker 2: President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and
16:10
Speaker 2: release frozen Iranian funds in return for, quote, concrete steps
16:15
Speaker 2: regarding their nuclear program. Oil prices then turned negative on
16:19
Speaker 2: the news, and I believe actually remains so. So I'm
16:22
Speaker 2: looking right now, Brent crude around $ 96 a barrel. It
16:25
Speaker 2: was at 108 sometime last week. So meaningful change actually there.
16:30
Speaker 2: And you will see some of that show up in
16:32
Speaker 2: gas prices relatively soon. So the all kind of sparked
16:36
Speaker 2: off of this report. Let's put the next one up
16:38
Speaker 2: here on the screen, Barack Ravid, who largely has been
16:40
Speaker 2: the mouthpiece for the administration, said, U.S. officials tell me
16:46
Speaker 2: President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and
16:49
Speaker 2: release of frozen funds for concrete progress on nuclear. Now,
16:53
Speaker 2: that is obviously what set this entire firestorm off until
16:57
Speaker 2: very late yesterday. Let's go to the next part. Trump
17:00
Speaker 2: released this Truth Social post. Axios just released a story
17:05
Speaker 2: that Trump offered sanctions relief and frozen fronts to Iran.
17:07
Speaker 2: This is untrue. I offered them nothing. Axios story, like
17:12
Speaker 2: most others, is a hoax used only for purposes of
17:15
Speaker 2: satisfying their Trump derangement syndrome. They should immediately withdraw this
17:20
Speaker 2: fake story. This is a little bit of a head scratcher, right?
17:23
Speaker 2: Because Barack Ravid is somebody who is taking calls and
17:28
Speaker 2: literally often does. You'll be like, President Trump tells me.
17:31
Speaker 2: I mean, it's very obvious that Steve Witkoff and Everybody
17:35
Speaker 2: else in the White House is leaking to this guy
17:37
Speaker 2: all the time, right? So I don't think he made
17:39
Speaker 2: it up. And so where did it come from? My
17:42
Speaker 2: guess would be that this would be something behind the
17:45
Speaker 2: scenes which had been offered. Steve Wyckoff or one of
17:48
Speaker 2: these other people leaked it to Ravid probably for this
17:51
Speaker 2: purpose of lower oil prices. Trump saw it, though, and
17:54
Speaker 2: doesn't want to appear weak. So we're right back to
17:57
Speaker 2: where we've been this entire time. I don't know when
18:00
Speaker 2: these oil guys are going to wake up. I just
18:02
Speaker 2: I don't get it. They just every single time they
18:05
Speaker 2: take the loaded, they're like, oh, yeah, let's take it.
18:07
Speaker 2: I'm like, guys, at the end of the day, you've
18:10
Speaker 2: seen this story a million times. I mean, what are
18:13
Speaker 2: you doing? And look, the bigger problem is, is that
18:17
Speaker 2: right now we just don't have a grasp on what
18:21
Speaker 2: is happening. The propaganda is awash in the U.S. media.
18:26
Speaker 2: And I'll give everybody an example, A9. And I'm not
18:29
Speaker 2: going to actually dismiss this all out completely. They say
18:33
Speaker 2: Iran touts Hormuz attacks as oil flows increase despite tensions.
18:37
Speaker 2: So yesterday, if you spend any time online, the entire
18:40
Speaker 2: pro-war crowd is passing around this new post, an analysis
18:46
Speaker 2: of something called Kepler data, right? And Kepler is one
18:50
Speaker 2: of those firms. They do real-time intelligence for markets, and
18:54
Speaker 2: they've been trying to compile the amount of oil going
18:58
Speaker 2: through the Strait of Hormuz. What they found, again, according
19:02
Speaker 2: to their data, is that Hormuz traffic has now returned
19:06
Speaker 2: roughly to pre-war levels, right? And so that would be
19:11
Speaker 2: a huge problem for Iran. That would mean their leverage
19:14
Speaker 2: on the Strait has decreased. you know, they've basically lost it. Now,
19:17
Speaker 2: when I say their leverage, they can still do pot shots, etc.
19:20
Speaker 2: But that the U.S. convoy system is working. And I
19:24
Speaker 2: don't think that that's actually a crazy thing to imagine
19:27
Speaker 2: after speaking with Sal, because Sal shows us how the
19:32
Speaker 2: full force of the U.S. Navy is currently focused on
19:35
Speaker 2: getting oil out of the Strait. I don't think anybody
19:38
Speaker 2: thought that Iran could shut this thing down completely. They
19:41
Speaker 2: can be a nuisance. They can be a menace. They
19:43
Speaker 2: can disrupt things. And we shouldn't say that any of
19:47
Speaker 2: this has come costless. It used to be a ship
19:49
Speaker 2: could sail right through. Now you've got armed U.S. Marines,
19:53
Speaker 2: Black Hawk helicopters, everybody's moving under the cover of night.
19:57
Speaker 2: So this is not free, you know, in terms of
19:59
Speaker 2: the way that all this oil is coming out. And
20:02
Speaker 2: to sustain this would require tens of billions of dollars
20:06
Speaker 2: a month. to keep it going. So let's make that
20:09
Speaker 2: very clear, like whenever we say that what's happening. But
20:11
Speaker 2: at a military level, what you can see right now
20:14
Speaker 2: is that largely the Navy blockade of Iran seems to
20:17
Speaker 2: continue to operate very well. Iran has not been able
20:20
Speaker 2: to export any oil. This morning, again, a lot of
20:23
Speaker 2: the hawks are passing around. The Iranian rial sank to
20:26
Speaker 2: its all-time low, some insane 2.5 million rial to the dollar,
20:30
Speaker 2: you know, crazy exchange rates. So their economy, you know,
20:33
Speaker 2: they have real problems. Like, let's not put that out
20:36
Speaker 2: of the realm whatsoever. The point though, is that this
20:40
Speaker 2: was all being couched as in Iran was willing to
20:43
Speaker 2: negotiate because they're beginning to lose control of Hormuz. However,
20:47
Speaker 2: as we covered in our show yesterday, 19 ships were
20:49
Speaker 2: struck overnight. There were no ships there. So I just very,
20:53
Speaker 2: I really caution people to say, we really don't know.
20:56
Speaker 2: And it's not like the market is reliable to tell
20:59
Speaker 2: us about the amount of physical oil because it's so
21:03
Speaker 2: easily manipulated. by these U.S. officials, by propaganda, et cetera.
21:08
Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of it.
21:09
Speaker 1: Well, and we're still at $ 100 a barrel.
21:11
Speaker 2: Right, we're still at $ 100.
21:12
Speaker 1: So it's not like the crude oil prices are reflecting
21:17
Speaker 1: a pre-war reality. It's still much elevated over the pre-war reality.
21:23
Speaker 1: So that is... some signal. I mean, I think it
21:26
Speaker 1: seems very clear that what Trump is trying to do
21:28
Speaker 1: is like jawbone his way through the midterms without things
21:31
Speaker 1: getting worse and ideally for him getting a little bit
21:34
Speaker 1: better in terms of gas prices. You actually have a
21:38
Speaker 1: number of governors, Republican governors in particular, Greg Abbott in Texas,
21:42
Speaker 1: who is himself facing a very tough, unexpectedly tough reelection bid,
21:46
Speaker 1: declare state of emergency on diesel prices. so that they
21:50
Speaker 1: could get rid of any state taxes and bring down
21:53
Speaker 1: prices even just a little bit. So they recognize this
21:56
Speaker 1: really dire. So in any case, I think Trump's plan is,
21:59
Speaker 1: let me go on my way through the midterms, and
22:01
Speaker 1: then after the midterms, potentially go back to some sort
22:04
Speaker 1: of bombing campaign, do something. The other factor that we
22:07
Speaker 1: haven't talked about as much recently in all of this
22:09
Speaker 1: is Israel, because we're going to talk about this later
22:11
Speaker 1: in the show. Netanyahu, who is a survivor of all
22:16
Speaker 1: survivors politically, he is the longest serving prime minister in
22:20
Speaker 1: Israeli history, in spite of being constantly embroiled in all
22:24
Speaker 1: sorts of controversy and scandal, etc., He is facing very
22:28
Speaker 1: difficult reelection. He is under a lot of pressure because
22:31
Speaker 1: of some of these reports about his failures to do
22:35
Speaker 1: anything to stop October 7th in spite of receiving significant
22:39
Speaker 1: warnings from multiple directions, whether it's their country or his
22:43
Speaker 1: own intelligence or other countries with his own intelligence services.
22:46
Speaker 1: So in any case, he may feel like I got
22:49
Speaker 1: to do something before my election to secure my reelection,
22:54
Speaker 1: make sure that I can stave off the opposition. So
22:56
Speaker 1: there might be a lot of pressure coming from the
22:58
Speaker 1: Israelis in advance of midterms because this is his strategy
23:02
Speaker 1: of political survival. This is what he has done when
23:04
Speaker 1: he is under political pressure or when he's facing corruption allegations,
23:09
Speaker 1: serious ones that could land him in prison. He goes
23:12
Speaker 1: and attacks somewhere and starts another war. And that's the
23:15
Speaker 1: way that he holds on to power and maintains some
23:18
Speaker 1: semblance of political support. So I think that's an important
23:22
Speaker 1: thing to just keep in mind, that that's hanging out
23:25
Speaker 1: there as well. And as I said before, those elections
23:28
Speaker 1: are happening just before the American midterm elections. They're basically
23:32
Speaker 1: timed to be at exactly the same time. So that's
23:34
Speaker 1: another factor to consider here. And obviously, we saw at
23:36
Speaker 1: the beginning of this war How influential by the admission
23:40
Speaker 1: of Marco Rubio and, of course, Joe Kent saying the
23:42
Speaker 1: same thing in his resignation letter, how influential Israeli opinion
23:47
Speaker 1: is about what we should be doing and how we
23:49
Speaker 1: should be conducting this war.
23:50
Speaker 2: Great point. Phenomenal point. I do. So I just want to,
23:54
Speaker 2: you know, picking up a little bit on what we
23:55
Speaker 2: said yesterday, where the Iranian strategy, like a lot of
24:00
Speaker 2: people fully trust that Iran's strategy because it got them
24:05
Speaker 2: to where they are now. has been the right move.
24:08
Speaker 2: But they are still in this weird strategic doldrum where, yes,
24:13
Speaker 2: oil is 100, but that is not going to kill
24:16
Speaker 2: the U.S.
24:16
Speaker 1: Economy.
24:17
Speaker 2: It's just not. I mean, look, America's a very rich country.
24:20
Speaker 2: And at the end of the day, as horrible as
24:23
Speaker 2: $ 4 oil, and obviously I oppose all of this. I
24:26
Speaker 2: don't think it should be any of this at all.
24:27
Speaker 2: We are surviving. Now, I'm not saying we're thriving, but
24:30
Speaker 2: we're surviving. To beat the United States of America is
24:34
Speaker 2: you will have to make it completely intolerable and a
24:37
Speaker 2: long war, even though, you know, yes, their population is
24:42
Speaker 2: on side, et cetera. Watch what has happened now. Like
24:44
Speaker 2: we've poured the full force of the empire into the
24:48
Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz. Of course that will work. I mean,
24:50
Speaker 2: nobody can stop that entirely. Is it sustainable in my opinion? No,
24:54
Speaker 2: especially if something else happens, but this, they're just letting themselves,
24:58
Speaker 2: I think, get stuck in this position where If they
25:02
Speaker 2: don't do something soon, I think that things are beginning
25:04
Speaker 2: to tilt more in the U.S. direction. I could be wrong,
25:07
Speaker 2: of course. They still have escalation dominance and the ability
25:11
Speaker 2: to do, you know, really they need to decide are
25:14
Speaker 2: we all in or not. Like, you know, they keep,
25:16
Speaker 2: you know, Golobov today, if we can't export oil, then
25:19
Speaker 2: nobody will. Dude, you've been saying that for like four months, right?
25:21
Speaker 2: And it's like, guess what? Saudi, Kuwait, they got U.S.
25:24
Speaker 2: Marines on their tankers. They're exporting plenty of oil. Not enough,
25:27
Speaker 2: definitely not enough for the global market, but you're exporting some.
25:30
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I feel like they just got
25:31
Speaker 2: to put up or shut up at a certain point
25:33
Speaker 2: because they're getting ground into the dust over a period
25:36
Speaker 2: of time. I'm not saying they're dead, and I'm definitely
25:38
Speaker 2: not counting them out. But I do think– honestly, this
25:41
Speaker 2: makes the situation much more dangerous.
25:43
Speaker 1: They've got to change the paradigm in some way.
25:44
Speaker 2: Exactly. It's just not working.
25:46
Speaker 1: Very likely capable, although we have more insight, frankly, into
25:50
Speaker 1: the U.S. military difficulties than we do into whatever is
25:55
Speaker 1: going on in the Iranian side. But, yeah, I saw
25:57
Speaker 1: one of the officials was making a comment about, oh,
25:59
Speaker 1: we have these new weapons that we can unveil if
26:01
Speaker 1: things continue. And it's, again, a similar thing. Like, okay,
26:04
Speaker 1: we've been hearing that the whole time.
26:05
Speaker 9: Yeah.
26:06
Speaker 1: So we'll see if they just allow a status quo
26:09
Speaker 1: to continue. That is much more punishing to their economy
26:12
Speaker 1: than it is to our economy. Not to say that
26:14
Speaker 1: it's great if they just sort of allow that to
26:16
Speaker 1: continue and hope for the best or whether they do
26:19
Speaker 1: something to try to change the strategic calculus.
26:20
Speaker 2: Agreed. OK, we got our friend Logan standing by. Let's
26:23
Speaker 2: get to him.
26:27
Speaker 1: All right, we are joined once again by our great
26:28
Speaker 1: friend Logan Phillips of Race the White House to break
26:31
Speaker 1: down the very latest in terms of the midterm elections.
26:33
Speaker 1: Great to see you, Logan.
26:34
Speaker 2: Good to see you, man.
26:35
Speaker 6: Great to be on.
26:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course.
26:36
Speaker 1: So we wanted to dig into a couple of really
26:38
Speaker 1: interesting developments here. Let's put this first one up on
26:41
Speaker 1: the screen. You have a report from The Wall Street
26:43
Speaker 1: Journal that Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, are actually urging
26:48
Speaker 1: Democratic donors to put money into the Mississippi... Senate race.
26:54
Speaker 1: You have an incumbent Republican there because, of course, you do.
26:57
Speaker 1: It's a, you know, a state that has went some
26:59
Speaker 1: 20 plus points for Trump. However, the polling has been
27:04
Speaker 1: scant and Democrats are feeling very confident. And some of
27:07
Speaker 1: the rationale that's offered in this piece is that maybe
27:09
Speaker 1: we won't win this time, but maybe we can do
27:11
Speaker 1: some good work building something for the future. What do
27:15
Speaker 1: you make of this? Is this just like a preposterous
27:17
Speaker 1: thing for Democrats to be throwing money at this year?
27:19
Speaker 1: In a year, especially when they are really being outspent
27:21
Speaker 1: by Republicans? Or is there some there there in terms
27:24
Speaker 1: of their political calculations?
27:25
Speaker 6: Well, I think this is one of those states where
27:27
Speaker 6: they are asking outside donors who aren't necessarily giving the
27:30
Speaker 6: money directly to the party that the party is then
27:32
Speaker 6: redistributing into this race. So it's less of a sacrifice.
27:35
Speaker 6: It's not in the area where the party itself is
27:37
Speaker 6: going to spend, especially, as you said, in a year
27:39
Speaker 6: where they're getting outspent by so much. However, I think
27:43
Speaker 6: the thinking is this is one of those cycles that
27:45
Speaker 6: has potential to have a random race or two that
27:49
Speaker 6: just shocks the country. You'll certainly definitely see some of
27:51
Speaker 6: those in the house unless it ends up being a
27:53
Speaker 6: way smaller wave than we think. But the real question
27:56
Speaker 6: is if this ends up being huge, if you put
28:00
Speaker 6: a little money into some of these places, it might
28:02
Speaker 6: make the difference between, oh, you actually had a chance
28:05
Speaker 6: because maybe there's a surge in black turnout or maybe
28:08
Speaker 6: this is the year. White voters are a little less
28:10
Speaker 6: polarized in Mississippi due to economic concerns. And so I
28:15
Speaker 6: wouldn't look at it as just Mississippi. It's looking at
28:17
Speaker 6: all of these types of races, Mississippi, South Carolina.
28:20
Speaker 2: Et cetera.
28:21
Speaker 6: Even though I think South Carolina is a lot more
28:23
Speaker 6: likely combined, maybe one of them crosses the line.
28:27
Speaker 2: Interesting. So what's the big question to me? This is
28:30
Speaker 2: what Mississippi yesterday we covered South Carolina. This just feels
28:34
Speaker 2: like hubris. You know, Crystal brought up a very good
28:38
Speaker 2: point yesterday. about how Hillary, in retrospect, you could say,
28:41
Speaker 2: you didn't even go to Wisconsin, you're spending money in
28:44
Speaker 2: New Mexico. There's something about this which just seems outrageous, obviously,
28:49
Speaker 2: in our current political paradigm. But what are you seeing
28:52
Speaker 2: just in the numbers? What does your gut tell you
28:54
Speaker 2: about some of these different plays?
28:55
Speaker 6: My gut tells me that Mississippi is going to.
28:57
Speaker 2: Go red, right?
28:58
Speaker 6: I can give you the reasons of what it would
29:00
Speaker 6: take for Democrats to win if you'd like.
29:02
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
29:02
Speaker 6: Yeah. OK, sure. So in 2024, this is completely different
29:06
Speaker 6: than the rest of the country where normally, yeah, Republicans
29:09
Speaker 6: clearly won white voters. But it's a very competitive block. Mississippi,
29:12
Speaker 6: not so much. They won 17 percent for Democrats, 82
29:17
Speaker 6: percent for Republicans. And black voters were literally the opposite,
29:21
Speaker 6: 82 percent for Democrats. 17% for Republicans. You can leave
29:27
Speaker 6: it on for now. So for Democrats to break through here,
29:32
Speaker 6: they're going to have to need, in my view, at
29:34
Speaker 6: least 26% of white voters. They're going to have to
29:37
Speaker 6: get black turnout up from 32% to 36%. And they're
29:39
Speaker 6: going to have to win some of those black voters
29:42
Speaker 6: under 45 who wandered over to Republicans. Now, the last one,
29:45
Speaker 6: that's the easiest of them to do because Gen Z
29:47
Speaker 6: voters are down on Republicans.
29:49
Speaker 1: Right.
29:49
Speaker 6: But I think for the first one, white voters, which
29:51
Speaker 6: is the hardest part by far, these voters are voting
29:56
Speaker 6: much more along cultural means.
29:57
Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
29:58
Speaker 6: Like, A, it's evangelical, and that's a huge part of it,
30:00
Speaker 6: like much higher percentage of evangelicals here than most of
30:02
Speaker 6: the country. But that doesn't explain all of it, right?
30:05
Speaker 6: There's a reason that Cindy Hyde-Smith is talking a lot
30:09
Speaker 6: about transgender issues. And so essentially, you need Scott Collins' argument,
30:14
Speaker 6: the Democrat, where he's saying, like, he's talking about Medicaid,
30:17
Speaker 6: he's talking about the cuts to Medicaid that Cindy Hyde-Smith
30:20
Speaker 6: voted for could shut down all these rural hospitals. And
30:22
Speaker 6: that's a huge concern. Essentially, you need the voters to say, like,
30:26
Speaker 6: why are we talking about these issues that really have
30:28
Speaker 6: no impact on their life at all when you're taking
30:32
Speaker 6: away some of the key services that in a place
30:34
Speaker 6: that's as poor as Mississippi, people rely on a lot
30:36
Speaker 6: more than they do in most of the country.
30:38
Speaker 2: Yeah.
30:39
Speaker 1: So we actually pulled some of their ads to give
30:41
Speaker 1: a flavor of what you're talking about. And so you
30:43
Speaker 1: have Cindy Hyde-Smith is the incumbent Republican, longtime state-level legislator
30:48
Speaker 1: as well. So well-known in the state, presumably, very tied
30:52
Speaker 1: in with the farmers in the rural areas, at least
30:54
Speaker 1: among the white population. And then you have Scott Colum,
30:57
Speaker 1: who is a district attorney, who is the challenger here.
31:01
Speaker 1: And so the ad we pulled from him is sort
31:05
Speaker 1: of like he actually talks about the Epstein files is
31:06
Speaker 1: kind of funny, sort of like giving a permission structure
31:10
Speaker 1: for some of the white voters who previously were voting
31:13
Speaker 1: Republican to maybe change their vote or just be disenchanted
31:17
Speaker 1: and stay home. And then her ad, she's calling him the,
31:20
Speaker 1: quote unquote, transgender defender. So let's go ahead and take
31:23
Speaker 1: a listen to the two of those, because I think
31:24
Speaker 1: it lays out your argument pretty well.
31:26
Speaker 9: I voted Republican for 20 years, but I won't this November.
31:30
Speaker 9: When Cindy Hyde-Smith voted to block the release of the
31:33
Speaker 9: Epstein files, I was shocked. It's just wrong to protect
31:37
Speaker 9: billionaire pedophiles from being held accountable. If Cindy Hyde-Smith will
31:42
Speaker 9: not stand up against child abuse, she won't stand up
31:45
Speaker 9: for Mississippians. Cindy Hyde-Smith has lost her way, and that's
31:48
Speaker 9: why I'm voting for Scott Colon. Scott Colon for U.S.
31:52
Speaker 2: Senate.
31:53
Speaker 9: Because Mississippi Matters.
31:56
Speaker 4: Meet the most radical Senate candidate in our lifetime, Scott Colombe.
32:01
Speaker 4: Twice nominated by Biden, beholden to the far left. As DA,
32:05
Speaker 4: violent crime doubled on his watch. He supports sex change
32:09
Speaker 4: surgeries for minors and men in girls' restrooms. They call
32:13
Speaker 4: him the transgender defender. Colombe bragged, you can't run to
32:17
Speaker 4: the left of me.
32:18
Speaker 2: Believe him.
32:20
Speaker 4: Mississippi's better choice, Cindy Hyde-Smith for U.S.
32:23
Speaker 6: Senate.
32:24
Speaker 1: I'm Cindy Hyde-Smith, and I approve this message. So you
32:27
Speaker 1: can see Scott Colum's calculation there is he needs to
32:30
Speaker 1: persuade some previous white Republican voters to vote for him.
32:34
Speaker 1: Do you think that that is feasible and plausible in
32:37
Speaker 1: this year?
32:38
Speaker 4: Yes.
32:39
Speaker 6: And I do think he will. I don't. The question
32:41
Speaker 6: is enough.
32:42
Speaker 2: Yeah.
32:43
Speaker 6: Do I think he has a chance?
32:44
Speaker 4: Yeah.
32:45
Speaker 6: I do see some signs in how they're overperforming in
32:47
Speaker 6: some of these governor races. Cindy Hyde-Smith is the lowest
32:50
Speaker 6: hanging fruit of the GOP and Mrs.
32:51
Speaker 2: Hippie.
32:52
Speaker 6: She only won by 10% last time.
32:54
Speaker 8: Oh, wow. Interesting.
32:55
Speaker 6: And that is in a year where Donald Trump won
32:57
Speaker 6: by like 16, 17. Well, it's back in 2020. Yeah.
33:01
Speaker 2: Oh.
33:02
Speaker 6: So the problem is like 2020 wasn't like a bad
33:06
Speaker 6: year for Democrats. Okay, it was worse in the House
33:08
Speaker 6: and Senate races than the presidential. But the gap alone
33:12
Speaker 6: between what we're going to see this year and what
33:13
Speaker 6: happened that year isn't going to be enough to push
33:15
Speaker 6: it over, right? She's going to have to underperform even more.
33:19
Speaker 6: Or it's going to have to be a much bigger
33:20
Speaker 6: wave than we think.
33:21
Speaker 4: And.
33:22
Speaker 1: The fact it was 10 points actually is making me think, huh,
33:25
Speaker 1: because I mean, it's I don't think it's crazy to
33:28
Speaker 1: imagine a 10 point swing in favor of Democrats, just
33:32
Speaker 1: given the level of disenchantment with them. So, you know,
33:36
Speaker 1: I would say still very much a long shot, but
33:38
Speaker 1: it makes it feel a little bit less crazy to
33:40
Speaker 1: me that she was such an underperformer previously.
33:43
Speaker 6: Yeah. I mean, there's also a difference in opinion among
33:46
Speaker 6: people like me. I have it at like 11 percent.
33:49
Speaker 6: Nate Silver has it, I think, like two or three percent.
33:52
Speaker 6: My thinking is, one of the things my model does
33:54
Speaker 6: is when there's different indicators pointing in opposite directions, it
33:57
Speaker 6: starts to increase the uncertainty in a race and say, okay,
34:00
Speaker 6: something could be wrong here, even though the most likely
34:02
Speaker 6: outcome is a clean Republican win. There's a possibility for
34:05
Speaker 6: things to go haywire here.
34:07
Speaker 2: Interesting. Let's talk about the models and, again, to this discussion.
34:10
Speaker 2: Can we put B4 on the screen? I talked about
34:12
Speaker 2: this yesterday. Chris and I had a big discussion about it.
34:15
Speaker 2: I'm curious for yours. So this was Luxor Jane. This
34:18
Speaker 2: kind of set the polling election sphere up. on fire.
34:21
Speaker 2: He said, our model is built on a lot of polling,
34:23
Speaker 2: including our own. It really bothers me how absurdly different
34:26
Speaker 2: the drop off of white respondents are in our polling.
34:28
Speaker 2: Whites who completed our polls swing 10% to the left.
34:31
Speaker 2: Whites who don't barely swing at all. I'm guessing this
34:33
Speaker 2: is not unique to our polling. If the model whiffs badly,
34:36
Speaker 2: it'll probably whiff on whites. And it would mean that
34:38
Speaker 2: far more lower propensity R's showed up to vote. And
34:42
Speaker 2: you know, TLDR for people, that is the same thing
34:46
Speaker 2: that has happened in every polling mess in the last decade.
34:50
Speaker 2: Like 2016 on, it's like for some reason they just
34:53
Speaker 2: can't poll working class whites and specifically like lower propensity
34:57
Speaker 2: Republican lean-ish voters. And that kind of comes to my
35:00
Speaker 2: mind when we're talking about Mississippi, South Carolina. Before the show,
35:04
Speaker 2: we were all talking about these Marist polls, right? Like Ohio,
35:07
Speaker 2: for example. What is it, the generic ballot for Democrats?
35:10
Speaker 2: They have it like 50%, right? And Republicans under a couple.
35:15
Speaker 2: This is a state where even in a bad year,
35:18
Speaker 2: For Democrat or for Republicans, J.D. 's winning the state
35:20
Speaker 2: by six. People were like, oh, God, he underperformed.
35:23
Speaker 8: Right.
35:24
Speaker 2: It's like, OK, he won the state by six points.
35:26
Speaker 2: I'm just pointing out like that one particular race. So
35:29
Speaker 2: there is a fancifulness to a lot of this type
35:32
Speaker 2: of polling, which just given my experience looking at this
35:36
Speaker 2: over the last decade, I have a lot of questions
35:38
Speaker 2: about a potential same error, especially white college educated Democrats.
35:44
Speaker 2: Everything that Trump has done is like poster fake. child
35:47
Speaker 2: of like everything they don't want to do so they're
35:49
Speaker 2: going to be the most motivated to answer polls and
35:51
Speaker 2: to be upset but we don't have enough of a
35:54
Speaker 2: sense of like what the rest of the country potentially
35:56
Speaker 2: feels we have an idea but we don't know for
35:58
Speaker 2: sure how are you thinking.
35:59
Speaker 6: Yeah i think i think it's a great point yeah
36:01
Speaker 6: uh i would say democrats should be feeling confident going
36:04
Speaker 6: into election day but they also should be aware that
36:06
Speaker 6: there's a chance for things to go wrong here because
36:09
Speaker 6: think about it right almost every single state it seems
36:10
Speaker 6: like in the country that is remotely competitive democrats have
36:14
Speaker 6: like a zero to five percent lead in That's true
36:16
Speaker 6: for Ohio. That's true for Kansas. That's true for Maine.
36:20
Speaker 6: That's true for Michigan. That's true for Iowa, Texas. So
36:25
Speaker 6: if things really go south, it could go badly.
36:29
Speaker 2: Okay.
36:30
Speaker 6: That being said, there's a chance it goes in the
36:32
Speaker 6: other direction on that same logic in this particular cycle.
36:35
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
36:35
Speaker 6: Because pollsters are trying really hard to overcorrect. Not to overcorrect.
36:38
Speaker 6: They're trying to just correct for this.
36:40
Speaker 2: Mm-hmm.
36:41
Speaker 6: And if the drop off in response rate is reflective
36:44
Speaker 6: of the fact that these voters are depressed about what's
36:46
Speaker 6: happening because he is underperforming a lot on average with
36:51
Speaker 6: almost every group. But that includes rural voters, includes white
36:54
Speaker 6: working class voters.
36:55
Speaker 8: Right.
36:55
Speaker 6: So it could be a sign that they're just not
36:58
Speaker 6: going to turn out in the same rate.
36:59
Speaker 2: Good point. They might just not vote. Might as well.
37:02
Speaker 1: Wasn't the midterm election in 2022, everyone thought red wave,
37:08
Speaker 1: red wave, red wave was not a red wave. The
37:10
Speaker 1: polling miss was in the other direction.
37:12
Speaker 6: Yes.
37:13
Speaker 1: So what has been the story of the polling misses
37:16
Speaker 1: in midterms? Because it seems to me like when Trump
37:19
Speaker 1: is on the ballot is when you most see this
37:22
Speaker 1: dynamic of a lot of infrequent voters who aren't being
37:26
Speaker 1: picked up by the pollsters show up to vote that
37:28
Speaker 1: were not included in any of the calculus.
37:31
Speaker 6: Yeah, I was actually talking to the pollster for Qantas,
37:34
Speaker 6: who is a smart guy, leans Republican. And we were
37:37
Speaker 6: talking about, I personally have a theory that the reason
37:40
Speaker 6: the polling miss is a lot bigger, especially for the
37:42
Speaker 6: Senate races in presidential years, is because there's a lot
37:47
Speaker 6: of Trump voters that don't love the GOP, but they're
37:50
Speaker 6: going to choose the GOP if they have to. And
37:53
Speaker 6: so they're saying they're undecided going into the election. And
37:55
Speaker 6: that's not necessarily even a polling miss. It's like, now
37:57
Speaker 6: that I'm here, I guess I'll vote for Cindy Hyde-Smith.
37:59
Speaker 6: versus I love Cindy Hyde-Smith. And so they're going to
38:04
Speaker 6: underrate that, right? Because those undecideds who are Trump voters
38:07
Speaker 6: are going to break very hard for Republicans. Some of
38:10
Speaker 6: those voters maybe just don't turn out in midterms.
38:12
Speaker 2: Right, right. That's a good point.
38:13
Speaker 1: Here's the other thing. Put B3 up on the screen.
38:15
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw this. This is anecdotal,
38:19
Speaker 1: but I feel like these are different anecdotes than we've
38:22
Speaker 1: gotten in previous elections, where it genuinely looks like some
38:25
Speaker 1: of Trump's previous candidates Hardcore supporters are questioning or have
38:30
Speaker 1: actively moved and feel the sense of betrayal over a
38:33
Speaker 1: combination of whether it's the terrorists, the Epstein files, the war.
38:37
Speaker 1: I actually think the Epstein files is a big part
38:39
Speaker 1: of this. But Politico talked to some of what they
38:42
Speaker 1: call Front Road Joes, which was a roving band, they say,
38:46
Speaker 1: of the president's most ardent supporters who would sort of
38:48
Speaker 1: compete with each other to show up as many Trump
38:50
Speaker 1: rallies as they possibly could. And they talked to a
38:53
Speaker 1: couple of them and have completely turned on Trump. So
38:56
Speaker 1: this one woman, Trisha Hope, she says that Trump is
38:58
Speaker 1: a fraud and a liar. Rick Frazier, another one of them,
39:01
Speaker 1: says he can't be trusted. They say Hope joined the
39:04
Speaker 1: Front Row Joes in 2018 after publishing a book of
39:07
Speaker 1: Trump's posts on Twitter called Just the Tweets. which helped
39:10
Speaker 1: pay for travel to rallies across the country in an
39:13
Speaker 1: RV she bought after giving up her apartment in Texas.
39:16
Speaker 1: During his impeachment, she spent two weeks in Washington roaming
39:19
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill to defend the president. Now she says the
39:22
Speaker 1: one scenario that would bring her back to Washington for
39:24
Speaker 1: Trump's sake, if we do lose the midterms and he's impeached,
39:27
Speaker 1: I will be walking the halls of Congress in support
39:29
Speaker 1: of that impeachment. And you had a similar story from
39:33
Speaker 1: Rick Frazier, who's just completely disenchanted with the situation as well.
39:37
Speaker 1: They hope actually named Epstein vials as she describes it
39:41
Speaker 1: as a quote, dagger in my heart. It was like
39:43
Speaker 1: a light switch went on, a veil lifted. I saw
39:46
Speaker 1: him for who he was. I've not been able to
39:48
Speaker 1: unsee it since.
39:49
Speaker 2: Okay.
39:50
Speaker 1: Anecdotal. However, we do see that within the Republican Party,
39:56
Speaker 1: you now have more people saying, I'm a Republican, not
39:58
Speaker 1: a Trump supporter. Like that's where my primary loyalty is.
40:01
Speaker 1: You do see a huge erosion in the number of
40:04
Speaker 1: people that say they strongly support Trump. You have a
40:07
Speaker 1: lot more tepid support there. And then you just have
40:10
Speaker 1: the economic numbers where some of his strongest supporters are
40:13
Speaker 1: the people that are getting screwed the hardest because of
40:15
Speaker 1: the choices that he has made. So it does. If
40:19
Speaker 1: this midterm ends up being more of a wave, then
40:23
Speaker 1: we have seen more than the typical sort of like
40:25
Speaker 1: partisan swing backlash. These types of people, to me, will
40:28
Speaker 1: be the story of why that happens. Yeah.
40:31
Speaker 6: You know, I think the best way to think about
40:32
Speaker 6: the Epstein files is it's not what most voters are
40:35
Speaker 6: thinking about when they're going into the polls. But it
40:37
Speaker 6: was the moment that Trump lost the benefit of the doubt.
40:40
Speaker 2: It was a catalyst. Yeah, exactly.
40:41
Speaker 6: That has been his superpowers. The benefit of the doubt
40:43
Speaker 6: and controversy after controversy, people assume he's fighting for the
40:46
Speaker 6: right reasons and he's going to have their back even
40:49
Speaker 6: if they don't like everything. But at that point it
40:51
Speaker 6: was something where people, almost everyone, like 80% of the
40:54
Speaker 6: country could say like, this is clearly wrong. Why is
40:56
Speaker 6: he doing it? And it created an opportunity for future
40:59
Speaker 6: things to be viewed in a much more negative light.
41:01
Speaker 6: Much like Afghanistan, for Biden or sometimes positions that Democrats
41:05
Speaker 6: have on Israel do for voters under the age of 35.
41:08
Speaker 6: Great point.
41:12
Speaker 2: Let's take a look at Ohio, or sorry, Iowa, where
41:15
Speaker 2: Trump recently announced yesterday in the Oval Office, kind of interesting,
41:19
Speaker 2: Ashley Hinson, the candidate there, she had previously been like, hey,
41:23
Speaker 2: this war needs to end. I'm working with Democrats. But
41:27
Speaker 2: apparently Trump, I guess, dragged her to the Oval Office.
41:29
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's to her benefit or not
41:31
Speaker 2: to announce some new, you know, $ 15 billion steel plant.
41:35
Speaker 2: And he was asked about some of this. Let's take
41:37
Speaker 2: a listen.
41:38
Speaker 3: And now we're going to continue to be a part
41:39
Speaker 3: of the American manufacturing story. And with 1,700 jobs, I
41:44
Speaker 3: just think about the countless opportunities for Iowa families and
41:47
Speaker 3: what this means for them. It is a game changer
41:50
Speaker 3: for our state and, frankly, for the country. And if
41:52
Speaker 3: you look at the jobs numbers that you've been posting
41:55
Speaker 3: every single month, they're not government growth jobs. They're private
41:58
Speaker 3: sector jobs, and that is what is so critical for
42:01
Speaker 3: our economy to move our economy forward. The working families
42:04
Speaker 3: tax cuts, the certainty that we provided families, I think
42:07
Speaker 3: we should make those all permanent because people love them,
42:10
Speaker 3: and we need to make sure that they can rely
42:11
Speaker 3: on those going forward, Mr.
42:12
Speaker 1: President.
42:13
Speaker 3: Thank you for what you and the entire team did
42:15
Speaker 3: to solidify this investment in American greatness and American manufacturing.
42:19
Speaker 8: Well, and I'm going to come to Iowa. I got
42:21
Speaker 8: more votes than anybody in history during the last election.
42:24
Speaker 8: All three I went up, up, up. And I think
42:27
Speaker 8: I'm more popular now than I was then.
42:29
Speaker 3: Why are Republicans, do you.
42:30
Speaker 8: Think, having to work so hard to hold on to
42:32
Speaker 8: the seats? I don't know.
42:33
Speaker 2: I love Iowa.
42:34
Speaker 8: I've always been very strong with Iowa. There's been some
42:39
Speaker 8: things that the Democrats have done that are, very bad
42:43
Speaker 8: for our country. You know, they had high prices. I've
42:47
Speaker 8: reduced the prices. But they like to say affordability. But
42:50
Speaker 8: they're the ones that caused the affordability problem. They're the
42:53
Speaker 8: ones that caused all of these problems. And they were
42:55
Speaker 8: unwilling to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon. They said,
42:59
Speaker 8: let somebody else. Of course, I could say that about
43:02
Speaker 8: many people. We have stopped them from having it. They'll
43:04
Speaker 8: never have a nuclear weapon. And they understand that. And
43:07
Speaker 8: they're willing to say that.
43:09
Speaker 2: But....
43:10
Speaker 8: I'm surprised. First of all, the polls are fake.
43:14
Speaker 2: What do you think?
43:15
Speaker 6: I think that Trump needs to work on making the
43:17
Speaker 6: American people feel that he has heard their concerns.
43:21
Speaker 2: But he can't because then that would invalidate everything that
43:23
Speaker 2: he's done.
43:24
Speaker 6: Yes, and that's his biggest problem also in general is
43:26
Speaker 6: that he can't admit that he's not perfect. And voters,
43:29
Speaker 6: I mean, oh my gosh, Kennedy, after he completely blew
43:32
Speaker 6: the bay of pigs in one of the biggest foreign
43:34
Speaker 6: policy mistakes in American history, his approval rating surged because
43:37
Speaker 6: he said, I messed up. Americans love when you can
43:40
Speaker 6: be humble, especially if it doesn't sound like it normally.
43:42
Speaker 6: I agree that's not going to happen.
43:43
Speaker 2: It wasn't his fault. I don't want to go into
43:45
Speaker 2: this room. It wasn't his fault. It wasn't.
43:48
Speaker 4: Yeah.
43:49
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the antithesis of the Trumpian quality. So
43:52
Speaker 1: what he would say back to you is, this is
43:54
Speaker 1: the way I've been operating. You know, never say you're sorry.
43:57
Speaker 1: Keep barreling forward. And that's the way that he's ended
44:00
Speaker 1: up in the White House for two times.
44:02
Speaker 2: What I've learned from Tucker, he believes he's touched by God, basically.
44:06
Speaker 4: Right?
44:06
Speaker 2: You know, or whatever, some force, I don't know about God,
44:09
Speaker 2: but he believes he's been touched because you see this
44:12
Speaker 2: in his comments about Iran. He's like, it's going to
44:15
Speaker 2: work out. It always does. You know, people die. It happens.
44:19
Speaker 2: You know, you all, we all got to die some way. Uh,
44:22
Speaker 2: to be honest, I mean, every time that they counted
44:26
Speaker 2: him out, he has won 2016, the indictments 2020, two impeachments.
44:32
Speaker 2: I mean, he won the popular vote. You can understand
44:35
Speaker 2: the psychology of somebody who, where a bullet misses you
44:39
Speaker 2: by millimeters that could have blown your brains out, and
44:41
Speaker 2: then you become the president, right? So all of this
44:44
Speaker 2: is understandable from a far away distance. But in this
44:50
Speaker 2: particular instance, it does seem like, okay, it's cooked. But
44:55
Speaker 2: But that's part of why I've just heard it so
44:57
Speaker 2: many times that it's really hard to reconcile with, like, wow, well,
45:00
Speaker 2: Trump is going to Iowa. And, you know, candidate behavior,
45:04
Speaker 2: I guess that's a real question. How indicative is candidate behavior? Like,
45:08
Speaker 2: do they really have better data than us? Because there's
45:10
Speaker 2: always an assumption, like, oh, they must have better data.
45:13
Speaker 2: The internals. I'm like, well, you know, internals are kind
45:15
Speaker 2: of bullshit sometimes. Ashley Hinson's behavior seems to indicate what
45:19
Speaker 2: we see in the national mood. But having seen this
45:22
Speaker 2: story before... Sometimes these candidates just know just as much
45:25
Speaker 2: as we do. They're all on Twitter reading the same polls.
45:28
Speaker 6: I think they know more about their race because we're
45:30
Speaker 6: focusing on everything.
45:31
Speaker 2: That's true.
45:32
Speaker 6: I also think that the data they're seeing is a
45:33
Speaker 6: lot better than the data they're releasing because they're not
45:35
Speaker 6: going to release. They're either like Roy Cooper trying to
45:37
Speaker 6: convince everyone that, no, North Carolina is still like this close.
45:40
Speaker 1: You got to spend money here.
45:41
Speaker 6: He's the only guy that releases polls that I have
45:43
Speaker 6: to turn off the bias for the internal polls because
45:45
Speaker 6: they're going in the other way.
45:47
Speaker 2: That's funny. That's interesting. Right?
45:48
Speaker 4: Yeah.
45:49
Speaker 6: And like, but normally, you know, they're only going to
45:51
Speaker 6: show things that make them look good. But their actual
45:54
Speaker 6: data is going to be a lot more substantive. And
45:55
Speaker 6: they also have qualitative data where they're talking to voters
45:58
Speaker 6: all the time.
45:58
Speaker 2: That's true.
45:59
Speaker 6: And they have a whole network of people talking to
46:00
Speaker 6: them about what they're seeing in their community. So I
46:02
Speaker 6: do think they know a lot more than we do.
46:03
Speaker 1: They're making calls. They're knocking doors.
46:05
Speaker 8: Right.
46:05
Speaker 1: They're marking down, oh, this Republican is now sitting on
46:08
Speaker 1: the fence. They're now voting Democrat. So they do have
46:12
Speaker 1: that sort of granular knowledge. Yeah.
46:13
Speaker 6: You know, sorry, back to your broader point, though. I
46:16
Speaker 6: actually think the thing that is most unique about this
46:18
Speaker 6: term is this is the time that political gravity has
46:21
Speaker 6: finally actually caught up with Donald Trump and the rules
46:24
Speaker 6: of politics, which are not ironclad like the rules of physics,
46:27
Speaker 6: are starting to actually affect him in almost everything. Because
46:31
Speaker 6: he's completely ignoring polls, what voters think. He surrounded himself
46:35
Speaker 6: with a cocoon of Natalie Harp lights who are telling
46:38
Speaker 6: him what he wants to hear. And the one time
46:41
Speaker 6: as they're finally trying to make him look at some
46:43
Speaker 6: negative press he starts banning news networks in response right
46:46
Speaker 6: and so I think that like if you do things
46:49
Speaker 6: voters really don't like You make their lives worse, and
46:52
Speaker 6: then you pretend that everything is fine, and you keep
46:54
Speaker 6: going further with another trade war of Canada People are
46:58
Speaker 6: gonna be thrilled about it, but.
46:59
Speaker 2: Like why that why right? I've seen him do so
47:02
Speaker 2: many things right why this like I could rationally could
47:05
Speaker 2: understand okay finally inflation and We had high inflation in COVID.
47:10
Speaker 2: It's not like 2020 was a dream year. Exactly. He
47:14
Speaker 2: won a ton of votes. So I'm just like, what
47:15
Speaker 2: makes this all that different?
47:17
Speaker 6: Yeah, no, it's fair. First of all, it's a midterm.
47:20
Speaker 6: You are fighting a losing battle to begin with. Second
47:22
Speaker 6: of all, I mean, he did lose in 2020. And
47:25
Speaker 6: then third, it doesn't mean that he's now going to
47:28
Speaker 6: lose everyone. It just means like even if there's a
47:31
Speaker 6: big polling miss, like he is– you can understand to
47:36
Speaker 6: a degree, like I think the patients wore out on
47:38
Speaker 6: COVID for Biden eventually, but it hadn't yet fully people
47:42
Speaker 6: understood what was happening here. It's like, This isn't forces
47:46
Speaker 6: beyond Trump's control that's causing these problems. It's like, wow,
47:49
Speaker 6: this guy literally campaigned on lowering my prices.
47:51
Speaker 1: I think that's a really important part. Because COVID, the
47:54
Speaker 1: handling of it was bad in a lot of ways.
47:56
Speaker 1: But it wasn't his fault. Like, he didn't cause COVID.
47:59
Speaker 8: No.
47:59
Speaker 1: He reacted poorly to something that was thrust upon him.
48:03
Speaker 1: The Iran war, that's all him. And by the way,
48:06
Speaker 1: in these farm states, the tariffs are a big deal, too,
48:08
Speaker 1: which we can't lose sight of. That was like a
48:10
Speaker 1: first economic blow that maybe farmers were willing to kind
48:13
Speaker 1: of like, OK, maybe there's a plan here. But then
48:15
Speaker 1: once you get hit with freaking six, seven dollar diesel prices,
48:19
Speaker 1: you're going under. In fact, we can put this Axios
48:21
Speaker 1: report up on the screen. We'll add this in post
48:24
Speaker 1: about how they're seeing a farm crisis. The headline here
48:28
Speaker 1: is brace for losing everything. Farm crisis fears grip GOP
48:32
Speaker 1: in Iowa. And so when you have a combination of
48:36
Speaker 1: you're being screwed and it's very clear who to blame.
48:40
Speaker 1: And I do think the Epstein piece was an eye-opener
48:42
Speaker 1: for a lot of people because it went so contrary
48:45
Speaker 1: to the brand that he had cultivated among his own
48:47
Speaker 1: base of, I'm going to be the one to come
48:49
Speaker 1: in and expose all the wrongdoers and clean house and
48:53
Speaker 1: drain the swamp. And then when push comes to shove,
48:57
Speaker 1: not only are you doing the cover-up, your name's all
48:59
Speaker 1: over that thing. Turns out you were Jeffrey Epstein's bestie.
49:02
Speaker 1: So I think it was very and they never really
49:04
Speaker 1: came up with a story that was going to land
49:06
Speaker 1: on that. They just kind of moved on. So I
49:09
Speaker 1: do think that opens some eyes. And then when you
49:11
Speaker 1: look at your own material conditions, it creates a very
49:14
Speaker 1: different landscape than what we've seen before. And the reason why,
49:17
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not buying that they're going to win Mrs.
49:19
Speaker 2: Democrat.
49:20
Speaker 1: Are going to win Mississippi or Kansas or these things,
49:22
Speaker 1: although I don't think it's completely insane to think it.
49:24
Speaker 1: But the reason why has less to do with the polls,
49:27
Speaker 1: more to do with the way we see the candidates acting.
49:30
Speaker 1: Trump is going to campaign in Texas and Iowa and Alaska,
49:35
Speaker 1: like these are places that should not be on the table.
49:37
Speaker 1: And that's where his people are sending him saying, well,
49:39
Speaker 1: you got to do what you can in these places.
49:41
Speaker 1: So you see that you see the way the candidates
49:43
Speaker 1: are behaving. And then you also see these special election results.
49:46
Speaker 1: When real voters have showed up at the polls, the
49:49
Speaker 1: swing towards Democrats has been enormous. So to me, when
49:52
Speaker 1: I put that together with the polling data, which continues,
49:56
Speaker 1: by the way, just to get worse and worse for Republicans,
49:58
Speaker 1: the generic ballot keeps widening in favor of Democrats, et cetera.
50:01
Speaker 1: When I look to that to put all of that together,
50:04
Speaker 1: I say this seems like this is a real phenomenon
50:06
Speaker 1: that's happening.
50:06
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think so, too. And look, I have a
50:08
Speaker 6: little system that I built for my forecast that takes
50:10
Speaker 6: all the special elections in the country. and what happened
50:13
Speaker 6: in the Alaska open primary, California and Washington. And that
50:16
Speaker 6: number collectively would suggest a D plus eight cycle. And
50:20
Speaker 6: since then, the GOP's polling has fallen off a cliff.
50:23
Speaker 6: So I don't know for sure what's going to happen.
50:26
Speaker 6: I think we all should be humbled after we've seen
50:28
Speaker 6: three presidential elections where there's been a big miss against Democrats.
50:32
Speaker 6: I mean, overrating Democrats, but there's a lot of indicators
50:35
Speaker 6: suggesting that it's bad for Republicans and the polls can
50:38
Speaker 6: still miss by a lot and it can still be
50:40
Speaker 6: bad for Republicans.
50:40
Speaker 2: So I'm looking at your forecast on the Senate. Let's
50:42
Speaker 2: talk about this. You've got 70 percent chance of Senate majority.
50:45
Speaker 2: That's very bullish, I think, for, you know, compared to
50:48
Speaker 2: some of the other ones. Your mean projected seats is
50:51
Speaker 2: 52.5 percent. You even have Texas lean D. So talk
50:55
Speaker 2: through some of those races for us.
50:57
Speaker 6: Sagar, that lean D for Texas makes me nervous. It's
51:00
Speaker 6: all quantitative.
51:01
Speaker 2: Dude, I'm from Maine.
51:02
Speaker 1: Maine is a toss-up. And Texas as lean D. That
51:06
Speaker 1: would be a weird math.
51:07
Speaker 6: You know what? Voters are getting depolarized to some degree
51:10
Speaker 6: in this particular electorate. I think that they don't like
51:13
Speaker 6: either party, and so maybe we're having more decision makers
51:16
Speaker 6: that are basing it off of candidates.
51:18
Speaker 2: That's a good point.
51:18
Speaker 8: Yeah.
51:18
Speaker 2: I think about that.
51:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, maybe this is the beginning.
51:20
Speaker 1: You also have very different demographics, Texas versus Maine. Maine
51:24
Speaker 1: is like literally, I think, the whitest state in the country.
51:26
Speaker 1: Texas is majority minority.
51:28
Speaker 6: Yeah, like we talked about last week, Latino voters are,
51:32
Speaker 6: along with Gen Z men, are the groups that are
51:33
Speaker 6: swinging the furthest against Republicans relative to the last presidential election.
51:38
Speaker 6: And so that's what creates an opportunity in a state
51:41
Speaker 6: like Texas. But it's also Susan Collins is Joe Manchin, basically,
51:44
Speaker 6: except she's a Republican. This is a very hard person
51:47
Speaker 6: to beat.
51:48
Speaker 8: Right.
51:49
Speaker 2: What about Alaska? So you have Alaska as a toss-up.
51:52
Speaker 2: You actually have Peltola at a 56% chance. You want
51:54
Speaker 2: to talk through some of the dynamics there?
51:55
Speaker 1: Yeah.
51:56
Speaker 6: I think there's two things in Alaska that are particularly
51:58
Speaker 6: important here, right? And this is a very small state.
52:00
Speaker 6: I know it's the biggest state, but it's also one
52:02
Speaker 6: of the smallest states in population. It's fish and it's
52:07
Speaker 6: the price of gas, which is really hurting Alaskans who
52:10
Speaker 6: often need to buy a lot in advance. And then.
52:13
Speaker 2: It's $ 5 a gallon.
52:14
Speaker 6: Yes.
52:15
Speaker 2: Right now.
52:15
Speaker 8: Yes.
52:16
Speaker 6: And, you know, they're price of fish, which is the
52:20
Speaker 6: vast majority of the food that Alaskans eat, has gone up.
52:23
Speaker 6: And there's a massive fishing industry there that has been
52:26
Speaker 6: crushed by climate change. I think if there's any place
52:28
Speaker 6: where climate change is hurting the U.S. the most, it
52:30
Speaker 6: is Alaska. And it actually has caused the state to
52:32
Speaker 6: be the fastest moving state in the country to Democrats.
52:35
Speaker 6: It's not the only reason, but it's a big part
52:36
Speaker 6: of it.
52:37
Speaker 2: Interesting.
52:37
Speaker 6: It used to be like 20 points to the right
52:39
Speaker 6: of the country plus. Now it's like 12 to 10
52:43
Speaker 6: and it's been moving at such a fast rate. It
52:44
Speaker 6: probably will continue. Interesting.
52:47
Speaker 1: Just wanted to say I pulled up Nate Silver's model.
52:49
Speaker 1: Very similar percentage likelihood of Democratic control of the Senate
52:53
Speaker 1: two years at 71 percent for for Nate Silver. So
52:57
Speaker 1: very interesting stuff. We could talk to you all day,
52:59
Speaker 1: but instead we'll just have you back next week. So
53:01
Speaker 1: we can dig into some other races and some other
53:03
Speaker 1: dynamics that are unfolding. Great to see you, Logan.
53:04
Speaker 2: Race to the White House dot com. Check it out.
53:06
Speaker 2: Logan is the best. Thank you, man. Thanks, guys.
53:08
Speaker 6: Great to be on.