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Bowl Season rolls on!! We've got more bets! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
Hello everybody, welcome to targeting Winners Day college
0:06
football betting podcast. Thank you for listening on
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Spotify and Apple. Thank you for watching us on
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YouTube. Please don't forget to click
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like and subscribe. It's free, it's easy and it
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helps us out. We appreciate all of you and I'm
0:21
Tim. I'm here in my bunker under ISIS
0:23
captivity, and I'm also joined today from the beaches of
0:27
Mexico. Pedro, how are you doing, Sir?
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Not too bad, Sir, not too bad. And I'm moving quickly toward
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Christmas. Here it is bowl season, so we're
0:35
doing a little bowling here and all is all is looking OK.
0:39
I was looking OK, Darren, up in upstate New York, freezing up
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there, I'm sure. How are you?
0:44
It's cold, it sucks here. It's already snowed twice.
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I cannot wait till you get me a place to live in Florida.
0:52
Well, I know it's cold down here.
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I got my sweatshirt on. It's like 58 is too low today.
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That's kind of cold so. There's 87 here, so.
1:02
Literally, you can both share a bag of juice.
1:04
I'm sorry, that's all I got to say about that.
1:09
Sorry. You remember when you shoveled
1:11
snow Bend from the knees. They don't want.
1:13
To I got one of those shovels that's got like the arc to it to
1:16
save my back because, you know, 87 years old and you know,
1:20
nobody's here to shovel it for me so.
1:23
OK, well before we get into the pics, we had another coach fired
1:25
for cause gets Sherrod Moore off the off the burner for now.
1:30
If it was a bigger coach, but it was in the Mac I believe Ohio
1:33
University. Have you heard anything about
1:35
that, Darren or Pete? Just came out today, got fired
1:38
for cause. Details not available at the
1:41
moment, but I'm sure given the most reliable news source on the
1:45
planet, Twitter, something will come out shortly.
1:48
But that that gets us to three openings.
1:52
I would imagine whoever gets it along with Michigan and I
1:56
believe is the other one, Missouri State is the other one.
2:00
I would expect that all these get filled before the January
2:02
2nd opening day of the portal. We had like 1/2 a dozen
2:06
quarterbacks say they're going to enter, probably more than
2:09
that, but half a dozen that we've all probably heard of.
2:13
It's going to be nuts, man. I, I kind of can't wait to see
2:16
where everybody goes. Yeah.
2:18
It's going to wait to see. Yeah, I I'm still holding on
2:21
hope Lane Kiffin leaves LSU to go to Alabama somehow.
2:24
They say, they say it's they say it's not going to happen, but
2:27
I'm praying for it. That's my dream.
2:29
Just having Lane Kiffin set the entire SEC on fire.
2:31
I have the whole place. Hate them.
2:32
That'd be great. I think they already hate them,
2:36
so we're good. But yeah, I don't, I don't know.
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As far as I know, the Ohio coach was not also arrested, though.
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So he's got to, he's got to raise his game up a.
2:42
Little bit, yeah. There we go.
2:44
They got you got. To get a little better.
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So he's, he's in better standing, sort of he he's.
2:48
He might actually get hired again somewhere else eventually.
2:51
You know he has a chance of the. Future yeah, there's that.
2:55
Once you serve time, I guess you don't have much chance to get
2:57
into a new job so. Yeah, break down your
2:59
girlfriend's door, hold a knife to your neck.
3:02
That's that that that's a little bit of a problem, you know, so.
3:05
That's frowned. Upon I did see a tweet, you
3:08
know, not to make light of everything that's going on, but
3:10
then he went in there and grabbed a butter knife.
3:12
Somebody had treated. No wonder he got fired.
3:14
He had no idea how to use his weapon.
3:19
Thank you, I'll be here all week.
3:21
Try the meatloaf all. Right, All right, well, we got
3:26
the first batch of bowl games here, or the second batch
3:29
actually. We had a few bats last week.
3:31
They're starting to sprinkle in day by day.
3:34
The first one we have here is the Myrtle Beach Bowl, Kennesaw
3:36
State against Western Michigan. So it's their first FBS bowl
3:42
game for Kennesaw State. At the time of this recording.
3:49
So far, no one opting out. We did have one player for
3:52
Kennesaw State going to the transfer portal, but he still
3:55
plans to play anyway. The opening line is Western
3:58
Michigan -3 1/2 with over under 49 1/2.
4:03
Darren, let's start with you. We got the, let's say Conference
4:05
USA and the Mac here playing. How are you feeling?
4:08
Yeah, my my two favorite conferences.
4:12
I do have a lean towards the under here only because I had a
4:18
couple of bets on Western Michigan during midweek action
4:21
in November and man, I don't even know if they even throw the
4:24
ball at this program. I mean, I love Brock Lowry as a
4:27
running quarterback, but the last three games he played in he
4:30
hasn't thrown for more than 111 yards and one of those three
4:33
games he threw for 32 in a game where the team scored 35.
4:39
Kennesaw State also a very run heavy offense, 49 1/2 or 48 1/2,
4:46
whatever it is now just seems way too high.
4:49
I mean, I know Kennesaw does like to run, but Western
4:53
Michigan's got a pretty legit defense.
4:55
So Buckley, they're running back.
4:57
Suppose he had a hand injury, but he's supposed to go.
5:01
No official bet, but I I got Aleni under here.
5:04
That's way too high for two teams that are like in the top
5:06
30 in the country at at running the ball.
5:10
I was saying the same thing, Peter, How about you and?
5:12
I could not agree more. I strongly considered playing
5:14
the under here. I mean this.
5:15
I mean, especially the 9:00 AM kick off, right, that is.
5:18
Historically brutal. That just doesn't go well for
5:22
officers at all. If you look back across history,
5:25
teams that just don't score that much, as Darren mentioned,
5:27
right? They they barely throw the ball.
5:29
It seems these days that Western does.
5:31
I don't know what's going on here.
5:32
So I mean, this seems like a, you know, whoever scores 21
5:35
points first wins the game. I, you know, I think this is AI
5:38
think it's going to be a low scoring game.
5:40
So yeah, I didn't bet it, but at the moment I'm kind of wishing I
5:43
did. I still might, Who knows?
5:46
But at the moment it's a very strong lead under here.
5:49
Yeah, just two things. I just checked.
5:50
I got DraftKings up. That's actually down to 47 1/2
5:53
as we speak. So by the time you get in this
5:57
video, it might even be below a somewhat key number of 47.
6:00
That's actually an 11:00 start time according to DraftKings.
6:03
I don't that's what it says. I don't know.
6:06
I saw 9 eastern tent at. That could be also.
6:09
I mean, I I just, I just pulled up the game.
6:11
It says 11. I don't.
6:13
I. Don't I don't I got it there.
6:16
Yeah, I don't know, maybe. Anyway about it?
6:20
It's in the morning, so. Either way, yeah, either way,
6:22
it's before noon. I'm.
6:25
Hoping to be out of bed by the time that, well, Oh no, it's
6:28
this Friday, so yeah, they. Used to play the Gator Bowl.
6:30
They used to play the Gator Bowl like 10 AM or something from the
6:33
kid or something. It was to be early in the
6:35
morning. Yeah, there used to be like a
6:36
bunch of New Year's Day bowls and they would always start at
6:38
like 11:00 at. The Yeah, I remember.
6:40
Like waking up and it was like early morning bowl, like
6:42
whatever the heck they play the early time.
6:45
Yeah, so all right, we're going to move on to the Gasparilla
6:49
Bowl. We got Memphis taking on NC
6:52
State. Reggie Howard, the interim coach
6:55
for Memphis. Also, as of this recording or
6:58
when I last made these slides, no opt outs.
7:01
I didn't see any in the transfer portal.
7:04
This is also a Friday. I did not get the time, but it
7:07
is in Tampa, FL Peter, we can start with you on this one.
7:11
The opening line is NC State -5 1/2 at over under a 57 1/2.
7:16
Yeah, that number feels a little inflated to me.
7:19
Not tremendously, but a little inflated to me.
7:22
I we tend to see it when you get like SECACC kind of games that
7:25
that number seems to come in and opens a little bit inflated.
7:29
So I think that's a a little bit high.
7:31
You know, NC State, their defense tends to historically
7:34
travel well, so I'd expect to see some defense from that side.
7:38
Memphis is explosive, but they're a bit inconsistent
7:41
against physical fronts. I'm not sure what we're going to
7:44
see here. I mean, I do think you're going
7:46
to see some scoring. This is not going to be a low
7:47
scoring game. But you know, you're, you're
7:49
almost touching on 60 there. I don't know if we're going to
7:52
quite see that. And I could see a, you know, 27,
7:56
yeah, 23, something like that. I would not be surprised at
7:59
scoring of, of that nature. So that's another or I'm leaning
8:03
on the under, not nearly as heavily as the last game, but
8:06
leaning under. Definitely not playing it.
8:08
But I still think it's going to be a kind of a fun game to
8:10
watch, but I certainly think it's going to go under here.
8:13
So those are my thoughts. They got Memphis.
8:16
They have the longest streak in the American Conference of 12
8:19
straight postseason appearances, so they got that going for them.
8:23
NC State looking for their first bowl when I believe since 2017.
8:28
Darren, do you have any thoughts on this one?
8:29
Well, first of all, if you're in the American, you made a bowl 12
8:32
straight times as like being the greatest hockey player in
8:34
Ecuador, who really cares? But I do have a bet on this
8:38
game. This is not a four and a half.
8:39
And that's a little too low for me.
8:40
So I took NC State, I laid the 4 1/2 here.
8:45
I mean, we talk about it and we we complain, the three of us
8:47
together and in our group text about how bowl games are are
8:50
really tough to bet. You never know from day-to-day
8:52
basis who's staying, who's not staying.
8:56
But one of the things that that I use as a handicap is like the
8:58
coaching situation. Now you look at NC State, Dave
9:01
Doran, pretty businesslike dude. He he's, he's all about the bowl
9:05
games. His thing is basically like, as
9:08
long as you can play, I expect you to play.
9:11
The reason I made this bet, CJ Bailey, their quarterback is
9:13
expected to play. Obviously that could blow up in
9:16
my face, but I I figured he's going to go anyway.
9:20
Memphis, a big coaching change, their coach left to go to
9:24
Arkansas, took his coordinators, at least took his offense
9:27
coordinator with him. Don't know what to expect from
9:31
Memphis. Yeah.
9:31
And also we talked about it last week comparing the stats from
9:35
different conferences. You got a Power Four team
9:38
against a group of Five team. NC State's stats as far as
9:41
running and passing are are actually better than what
9:43
Memphis has and and Memphis had lesser competition.
9:46
So I expect kind of a a business like effort here from the
9:50
Wolfpack. I expect them to cover this 4
9:52
1/2. So I like it.
9:54
Like Tim said, no major opt outs yet.
9:55
They may have a few. But also like Pete said, you
9:59
never know what you're going to get from Memphis.
10:01
I have to assume that, you know, again, they choked away their
10:03
regular season just like they did last year.
10:06
I have to assume that they probably don't want to be here.
10:11
So yeah, that that's I was holding out for the four, but
10:14
nobody looked like they were getting 4 anytime soon.
10:16
So as much as I hate having the hook there, I do have a one unit
10:20
play on NC State -4 1/2. Yeah, I try to pump up Memphis a
10:24
little bit and you just got to piss all over it, you know?
10:26
Debbie Downer. They would rather be in Ecuador,
10:28
but I don't know what to tell you.
10:29
I just, I, I got a feeling NC State's going to going to get it
10:33
done here. I'm sure it's warm down there.
10:35
You're pretty close to Ecuador, Pete.
10:36
I was. You.
10:40
Should travel down there for a weekend, see what it's like down
10:42
there. I thought about it.
10:45
All right. Also, Friday in the 19th, 8 O
10:47
clock, Norman, OK Alabama and Oklahoma, the first game of the
10:52
College Football Playoff. Alabama -1 1/2 the over under a
10:56
40 1/2. Got a rematch of the regular
10:58
season. Let me see.
11:01
We started with Darren last time.
11:03
All right, so we'll go with Pete.
11:05
Any thoughts on this one? I do I actually have a bet on
11:09
this one. So over under 40 1/2 obviously
11:12
that this one had a bit of interest with me with Caitlin de
11:15
Boer and all of that. I don't think he's coming to
11:17
Michigan. So I think he's staying.
11:18
So that's AI think he's I think it's a good thing for Bama.
11:23
I think they're going to play like it's a good thing for Bama.
11:26
I think they're going to be happy about that.
11:27
So I think they're going to come out and play well.
11:29
Oklahoma's been a little bipolar a bit this year, right?
11:34
You don't quite know what you're going to get.
11:37
I think you're going to get the good Oklahoma here.
11:39
That's what I expect to see. This is generally the kind of
11:42
game for me. I look at like this like, you
11:43
know, kind of an SEC type of battle, right?
11:46
And that and that way, you know, those games have usually look at
11:49
the under. But this number is a little
11:51
light for me, right? 40 1/2 is a little low and I, I
11:54
do think we're going to get some scoring here.
11:55
I mean, not a ton. This is not going to be a
11:57
scoring fest. This is not Lane Kiffin.
11:59
We're not going to see that. But I do think we're going to
12:02
breach that number. I I do think we're going to see
12:04
something, you know, north of, you know, north of maybe 404445,
12:09
something like that in total. So yeah, so I'm going over on
12:13
this game 40 1/2 with one unit just because I do think Bama is
12:17
going to once again, be quite happy with the fact that I think
12:21
the coach is going to stay there.
12:22
And and I do think that Oklahoma is going to come out with their
12:26
with their a game. So it should be should be
12:27
interesting. Darren.
12:31
Went back and forth on this game multiple times, could really
12:35
care less. I I don't think either of these
12:37
teams are playing well enough to even be here in this situation,
12:40
but we touched on that a week or two ago.
12:43
Jam Miller is supposed to play for Alabama.
12:45
Not that they have any kind of a running game worth talking
12:48
about, but at least that can't hurt.
12:50
I don't know what version of John Mateer I'm going to get.
12:52
Obviously I don't know how the hell they cashed at least eight
12:54
regular season wins for me. I'm glad they did, but they
12:58
certainly have looked like they were a four and eight team as
13:01
opposed to 10 and two or whatever hell they went.
13:04
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if Alabama goes in and gets this
13:07
win here. If I had to lean one side, it
13:11
would be Alabama, as much as that pains me to say it.
13:15
But I just don't know what I'm going to get from from either
13:17
team here. So for me, that's a stay away.
13:20
But I can certainly see 2417 with no problem cashing pizza
13:23
over there. But no, no play for me here.
13:28
You don't think the Boars going to leave if they lose this one
13:31
back-to-back four loss seasons? No, I don't.
13:34
I mean, let's think like that. They're not.
13:36
They get. Blown out or something?
13:37
I don't, I don't see that happening.
13:39
I I just don't know. I don't.
13:41
Now you're just being a downer for me, so killing my dreams
13:44
here. All right, we're going to move
13:46
on to Saturday. Boy, the team I hate against
13:50
Texas A&M, we got my implied money line bet here with Texas
13:55
A&M to win the national championship from back in June
13:58
when I made this opening line. A&M is -3 1/2 over under a 51
14:03
1/2 matchups going to be one in the trenches.
14:07
So I've Miami's in having not won the ACC, so they are still
14:12
not back. Darren, we'll start with you on
14:14
this one. What you're thinking?
14:16
Much like the other game, went back and forth on this one
14:19
multiple times. So I can depend on which version
14:21
of the Texas A&M defense shows up here.
14:23
Are we going to get the, you know, the one that actually
14:25
played well in certain situations?
14:27
Are we the one that gave up what, 40 points to Arkansas or
14:31
whoever it was playing in that stadium?
14:36
If Carson Beck threw 3 picks, that wouldn't surprise me
14:39
either. I mean, the guy is certainly
14:41
capable of being rattled. I expect that to be an
14:44
environment like Miami has not seen all year.
14:48
The 3 1/2 kind of scares me a little bit that laying that
14:51
hook. I do think Texas A&M wins this.
14:55
As a fan, I'll be rooting Tim for your 30 to one bet here to
14:59
to last another game. But like you said, I don't know
15:04
which version of Carson Beck I'm going to get.
15:06
I don't know which version of the A&M defense I'm going to
15:08
get. I will enjoy it and from a fan
15:11
perspective, I also am anti Miami and again, somebody on the
15:16
show's got A&M win it all. So I'll be rooting for the
15:19
Aggies, but I am not putting my money on anything about this
15:23
game at all. Peter.
15:26
Yeah, these are two teams that are inconsistent and looking at
15:29
that number, that 51 1/2 and I could make an argument under, I
15:33
could make an argument over. I could have gone either way on
15:35
this thing to exactly Darren's points.
15:38
What's Carson Beck going to do? Is he going to come up and come
15:40
out and light it up if Texas A&M's defense just isn't on that
15:44
day possible. Could he throw 3 picks?
15:46
Could he throw three pick sixes? He could, but I don't know.
15:50
I really have no idea where that's going to go.
15:52
I think it's just with him, with Carson himself, who knows with
15:56
that A&M defense, I have no flipping idea.
15:59
I didn't know where to go with this thing because it literally,
16:01
it could be a tight game or it could turn into a blowout.
16:05
I have absolutely no idea. So I stayed the heck away from
16:08
it. I was probably leaning toward
16:10
the under, but I could not even get myself to do anything with
16:13
it so. Yeah, this game gave me a pit in
16:16
my stomach, man. I feel nauseous because, you
16:20
know, this year has not been good to me.
16:22
The football gods do not want me to have nice things.
16:26
So my last 30 to one national championship bet could be wiped
16:30
out by the team I hate the most. I I at least the game is not on
16:35
Friday night so I like stay away from the Friday night games.
16:38
I kind of like it that it's at noon and not in prime time.
16:41
I did place a bet on here. I bet the over of 51 1/2.
16:48
I'm guessing a hybrid of the good and bad A&M defense.
16:52
I'm still think they're going to give up probably about 24 to 30
16:55
points in this one. They can easily score enough to
17:00
get the get the rest. Miami's pretty good on 3rd down.
17:04
They convert almost 50% of them. You don't need to shoot out, you
17:09
know, 30 to 26 gets it done. That's not exactly a light em up
17:14
running gun kind of game. So yeah, I like the over here.
17:19
I'm scared to death. I'm going to be sweating this
17:21
one for more than other reasons. I just want Miami to lose so bad
17:26
if more than anything else. I mean, Miami could be playing
17:29
anybody. I'm going to want them to lose.
17:30
But but yeah, I took the over in this one.
17:34
I'm just guessing. It's just going to be a very
17:36
high scoring. I think Carson Beck won't throw
17:38
3 interceptions. He might throw one or two.
17:40
Hopefully that's enough to get it for for A&M, but maybe get a
17:44
couple short fields, some quick scores.
17:47
Marcel show out today or Saturday in this case.
17:50
So yeah, going with the over 51 1/2.
17:54
That is interesting. See, when I was thinking over
17:56
under, I was thinking, oh, if it were over it would it would lean
18:00
Miami. If it were under it would lean A
18:02
and MI mean that's the way I was thinking about it.
18:04
You're you're thinking about the opposite, right.
18:05
You want you want Miami to lose and and you're thinking that
18:08
would over would support A&M and I was actually thinking about
18:10
the opposite way. So that's interesting.
18:12
I'm. They can score.
18:15
I mean, even when they when they've even like we saw them
18:17
play Arkansas, they gave up like 42 points that they scored 49 or
18:21
whatever it was. They can they can easily put up
18:23
the points If they're faced with a crisis where they just can't
18:27
stop the other team. They can probably match and then
18:30
just hope they get the ball last and be able to, you know, or get
18:33
it in overtime. They do have a couple defenders
18:35
coming back. They have a linebacker coming
18:37
back. I think #7 they're running back
18:39
will be coming back as well. Moss, I think his name is.
18:44
I think he's coming back. I don't know how much he's going
18:45
to play, but you should be coming back from an injury.
18:49
Yeah, fingers crossed, man, for nothing else for Miami to lose.
18:51
But that's all my game. Really interesting.
18:55
Worry about like a a playoff bracket game.
18:57
Are you going to get that first quarter where like nobody really
19:00
shows like what they want to do and you get like a zero like the
19:04
feeling out process? Is it like 3 nothing at the end
19:06
of the first quarter? And then did they go nuts?
19:10
You know, I made me think about it.
19:12
I mean, Miami, I mean, there's their schedule is kind of asked,
19:16
but they're in the ACC, it's kind of asked by default.
19:19
And and then you look at A&M, yeah, they were one of four
19:21
teams that were seven and one in the conference, but they didn't
19:23
play any of the other three teams that went 7:00 and 1:00.
19:25
So I don't even know like how good they really can be.
19:28
I was told there are no bad teams in the SEC, Darren.
19:31
Well, that means more. That's a fairpoint.
19:34
That's a fairpoint. Football talent ever assembled.
19:37
Turn off ESPN. Just means more ESECPN.
19:42
Oh, yeah, they're a great network.
19:43
Yeah. I I just don't know what to
19:44
expect here. It's like you kind of look at
19:46
the schedule, like, wow, these guys did what they were supposed
19:48
to. Both teams, you know, they beat
19:50
for the most part who they were supposed to beat, say, for a
19:53
couple of duds from Miami, but. I think somebody, I think one of
19:57
these teams is going to get exposed in this game.
19:59
I think it's going to be Miami, honestly.
20:02
I think so too. Yeah, they said one of the
20:04
lineman said something about Bane for Miami.
20:06
On the other side. I'm like, great.
20:07
And I got to piss that guy off. So praise beat a fine bomb.
20:12
So we go with the mighty SEC. So all right, the Lane Kiffin
20:16
less Ole Miss Saturday, 3:30 in Oxford, Ms. opening line.
20:23
We'll miss -17 1/2 over under 56 1/2.
20:26
I'm still not touching this game.
20:27
I don't care if Lane Kiffin's gone.
20:30
So we'll start with I think we Pete last time.
20:33
Darren, let's start with you on this one.
20:35
I didn't bet this because I was holding out for a 17.
20:38
A lot of the plus 17 and a halfs were kind of juice.
20:41
And, you know, since these bets for us are locked in before we
20:44
record, I couldn't get 17. So kind of bummed about that.
20:50
But I think Ole Miss is going to roll here.
20:51
I mean, this is a rematch earlier in the season.
20:53
I think it was like 45 to 1041 to 10 or yeah, something like, I
20:57
mean, Ole Miss destroyed them. And and I think just the way
21:00
Kiffin ditched this team, I think there's going to be a
21:04
little chip on the shoulder for the Rebels.
21:05
They're just going to be like, all right, man, we're going to
21:07
show you what you left behind. Something similar to the first
21:12
meeting. Would not be surprised if it
21:14
happens again. I mean, Reds laugh.
21:16
Couldn't do anything in that first game.
21:19
I just expect more of the same here.
21:21
But I didn't get the 17 because the old backdoor cover scares
21:24
the crap out of me because, you know, Tulane's going to play all
21:26
60 minutes. Yeah, I mean, I could see like a
21:30
45 to 17. And then here comes a couple of
21:34
cheap scores from Tulane in the fourth quarter when Ole Miss is
21:37
playing their backups. But yeah, I don't see how Ole
21:41
Miss does not roll here. Peter.
21:45
Yeah, I mean, I think I was going to play anything here to
21:47
be laying the points goal miss, right?
21:48
I, I just, you know that that's a high number with with lane
21:52
gone. So I mean, yeah, you'd be you'd
21:53
be playing the fact that they're going to, you know, have their
21:56
fingers in the air at lane and they want to show him that
21:59
they're just fine without him, right.
22:00
That's what you're that's what you're playing if you're going
22:03
to play the over in this thing, because that's a big number,
22:05
which I just I really consider the under here.
22:10
But and because I do, I do think you're going to see the same
22:14
similar to what we saw during the season.
22:17
The the same would be an hunter, right?
22:20
So I mean, even if, you know, even if they completely destroy
22:23
them, you know, 50 to 3 or something, that's still a
22:25
hunter, right? So to me, you know this, this
22:28
really does lean pretty heavily under unless Tulane can find a
22:31
way to do something. Or to Darren's point, right,
22:35
you're just getting late garbage touchdowns.
22:38
And that is always a concern in a game like this is when nobody
22:42
gives a shit anymore near the end and you're just getting late
22:45
garbage touchdowns which inflate the score, which is always
22:49
dangerous in games like this. So that's why I didn't touch it.
22:52
But if this were a regular a season game that actually
22:56
mattered for some reason that I would, that would definitely go
23:00
under. But I'm not touching it here.
23:02
All right. OOP.
23:05
More playoffs here. We got James Madison, Oregon
23:09
opening line of Oregon -21 1/2 over under a 50 1/2.
23:15
Darren, let's start with you. I've got to play on this one.
23:17
I think you had one too. I did not, but if I did, it
23:23
would be Oregon or nothing for me.
23:25
I was not impressed with how James Madison looked in their
23:28
conference title game against Troy, considering all the pieces
23:32
that Troy was down. I mean, it took to like the
23:34
fourth quarter for them to even win that game.
23:35
Pete's futures bat was really looking good for like 3 1/2
23:38
quarters. Had a pretty solid chance to
23:40
come home here. Yeah.
23:43
I mean, I mean, the only, I mean, if you wanted to say
23:46
anything. OK, so both of Oregon's
23:47
coordinators are taking coaching jobs elsewhere.
23:50
Maybe that's a distraction, but I just don't see it.
23:54
I'm not impressed enough with Jamie Madison to think that they
23:57
have a shot here. It's Oregon or nothing for me.
24:01
But again, 21 1/2, you know, the fear of the back door cover.
24:04
I can see along the Barnett doing something.
24:07
Yeah, 31 to 10. And he just scooches in for a
24:10
touchdown when when the game's out of reach.
24:12
So I'm avoiding this here. But if I had to make a bed, be
24:15
the Ducks or nothing. Peter yeah, I mean, it's 50 1/2
24:20
in the slide, but I, I, I got it a 47 1/2.
24:22
So it came down a bit. And I, I really like the over
24:26
here in this game. I think Oregon is going to
24:29
score. I think they're going to score a
24:30
bunch. I don't know what James
24:32
Madison's going to do. Yeah, Troy played quite nicely
24:35
against them now. So hats up to Troy for having a
24:38
good, a good season. Yeah.
24:41
I, I, I think James Madison's going to have to score to, to, I
24:44
mean, a bit to try to keep up here.
24:46
I don't know if they can. I, I, I'm not sure after, yeah,
24:49
after that game, I'm not sure they're capable, to be honest
24:51
with you. So I do think Oregon's going to
24:54
score with the, you know, with the coordinators leading to go
24:57
elsewhere. You know, I think especially on
24:59
the offensive side, cause Oregon does have talent.
25:01
Yeah. I think that might play around a
25:03
little bit. I think you might see some, some
25:05
fun and games coming out of the offensive side, which could lead
25:07
to some points. So I think it could be
25:08
interesting. Yeah.
25:10
I, I'm, I'm expecting a bit of a blowout here and I'm expecting
25:14
Oregon to score some points. So I really do like the over
25:17
here. So I'm going one unit on the
25:19
over. I almost won 2 units but I'm
25:21
going one unit on the over of I got 47 1/2.
25:25
Before tip, before you give out your bed, I just want to say
25:27
DraftKings is down to 21 as we speak.
25:31
So if anybody's listening as a DraftKings account, there you
25:34
go. All right.
25:36
Yes, well when I think of this game, you think, you know
25:38
location efficiency and mistakes.
25:42
Well, the location obviously favors Oregon.
25:46
The mistakes. Oregon is a + 8 turnover ratio
25:49
and James Madison is -1 so I'm liking that as well.
25:53
I took Oregon, I laid to 21 1/2. I also, you know, when I think
25:58
Oregon, I think over. So I also along with Pete, I bet
26:01
the over, but I bet it earlier and I got it at 50 1/2.
26:04
I still don't care. I think it'll that'll still hit.
26:08
Both teams seem to be moving the ball.
26:10
I just think James Madison may, you know, keep it close early
26:16
and then at the end I think Oregon just pulls away.
26:18
They end up being too much once they get the lead, you know,
26:22
that's it. And they take James Madison out
26:24
of their game. It could just fall apart.
26:27
So yeah, I know what it's this. This Oregon team at home is a
26:30
different animal. So I'm expecting the final score
26:33
to be something, you know, 42 to, you know, 17, something like
26:38
that. And.
26:39
I don't think it'd be I don't think it'd be sweating this man.
26:41
I think Oregon's have come out firing and I think they're just
26:43
go. I don't know, they'll be they'll
26:44
be gone. That's.
26:47
So yeah, so again, I have Oregon.
26:49
I don't mind laying the 21 1/2 and I don't mind laying the over
26:52
50 1/2. Any final thoughts on this one?
26:56
Love your bets. Great, because that's every time
26:59
you've loved them. They've worked out wonderfully
27:01
this year. There you.
27:05
Go wonderful. So move on.
27:09
We got the Idaho Potato Bowl. We got Utah State -3 1/2 the
27:14
over under is 52 1/2. Got a couple of players in the
27:19
transfer portal for Washington State, got a backup quarterback
27:25
for the other. For Utah State, we got Tony
27:28
Freeman, Utah State. Braden Pagan is the wide
27:33
receiver. He's in the transfer portal I
27:35
believe. So we'll start here with Darren.
27:38
We got over under a 52 1/2. The this line is Utah State -3
27:44
1/2 where you fall on this one. I, I almost went Utah State
27:49
here, but this line is dropping. It's down to Utah State favored
27:53
by a point and a half. Again, you know, I look at this,
27:58
I see more opt outs for Washington State and again, you
28:03
know, the thing about the coach is all leaving.
28:05
Well, Washington State's coach is gone.
28:08
Their new head coach is the old offense coordinator of Missouri.
28:11
He's not going to be there coaching.
28:13
And when that happens, sometimes you'll get kids who decide, you
28:16
know what, I'm going to opt out and follow my coach to wherever
28:18
he goes. So if you're interested on
28:21
either side here, I would suggest just kind of wait and
28:25
check the opt outs on the day of the game.
28:28
I didn't have anything here, but I would lean Utah State.
28:32
Like I said, if if you're on DraftKings, you can only lay a
28:34
point and a half. But that's my lean.
28:36
But it's not even, not even a strong lean.
28:38
But that's where I would go. Peter, how are you?
28:42
Yeah. The only thing I wouldn't wait
28:43
on is the under, right. That number's already down three
28:45
points. It's going to keep coming down,
28:46
I think. I know this.
28:48
This is an under play. I didn't play it, but to me,
28:50
this is absolutely an under play.
28:51
I think that number's going to keep coming down.
28:53
I see anywhere between like 49 1/2 and 50 1/2 this morning.
28:56
It might have come down more right now, I don't even know,
28:58
but. DraftKings half 49 1/2.
29:01
Yeah, so with people, you know, possibly not playing and such, I
29:04
think I think you're going to see a a lower scoring game here.
29:07
So I think it's a pretty sweet opportunity to get the under.
29:10
But if you're going to play the under, I would play it soon and
29:12
don't wait 'cause that number's going to keep coming down.
29:16
But yeah, I don't, I don't expect fireworks here.
29:18
I expect a lower scoring game. So those are my thoughts.
29:22
OK, now we're going to move on to the Boca Raton Bowl, December
29:27
23rd, 2:00, Louisville against Toledo, Louisville's given 7 1/2
29:32
over under 50 1/2. That actually has gone down
29:36
since I made put that up there. Toledo and the transfer portal,
29:42
Malachi Davis, defensive end. That's all I've seen as of a
29:45
couple days ago. I don't know if that's been
29:47
updated or not. I haven't seen any.
29:50
Dan, we'll start with you. Or were you coming down in this
29:52
one? Yeah, I was when I went to make
29:55
my bets yesterday, I was gonna play Louisville cause but it was
29:59
7 so I, I stayed away. Now I'm looking at DraftKings at
30:02
6 1/2 and this totals all the way down to 45 1/2 and the under
30:06
is still juice. So now I'm scared to death of
30:09
like who the Hell's in and who's out for Louisville.
30:12
I know they've had some running back injuries, but the two guys
30:15
that they brought in his backup, I believe one was a converted
30:17
wide receiver. The last game of the season
30:20
against Kentucky, he rushed for like 200 yards.
30:22
So the running game doesn't worry me.
30:25
This would all be whether Miller Moss is 100% healthy and if he
30:29
is, if he's going to play from when you made this graphic, the
30:33
total's come down five points. Yeah, I'm just like, I'm just
30:38
kind of pulling up here real quick.
30:40
I'm just seeing if there's any updates with.
30:43
Five and six, it's 44 1/2 also in some places.
30:46
Oh my gosh. Yeah, I mean, there's nothing.
30:50
I mean, again, you got the another coaching thing.
30:52
The Toledo coach left to go coach UConn.
30:55
So the QB coach is taking over as the interim.
30:59
Louisville's got a couple of defensive lineman that have
31:01
opted out. But again, potential opt outs.
31:03
You know, Miller Moss, even though it says he's supposed to
31:05
play Chris Bell, they're a good wide receiver.
31:08
He's got a torn ACL, so he's out.
31:10
Isaac Brown's out. Kawan Brown is out.
31:13
Duke Watson's out. I mean, those are the three of
31:14
their top running backs. And then a note here, Jeff
31:18
Brohm, still unsure about the status of the running backs.
31:20
He said he hopes at least one plays.
31:22
Well. That doesn't inspire a whole
31:24
hell of a lot of confidence. So I hope a lot of things, too,
31:29
Jeff. I hope Sidney Sweeney will call
31:31
me and ask me if I would like to go out.
31:34
So yeah, just reading that now, even with the 6 1/2, that total
31:40
dropping five points, I can't run away from this game fast
31:44
enough at the moment. So yeah, nothing for me here.
31:49
I, well, I went ahead and I did play the under here, 44 1/2.
31:55
You know, Louisville's defense is probably the best unit that's
31:57
going to be on the field that day.
31:58
Toledo, I think they rely on a lot of big plays.
32:02
I think Louisville can limit that.
32:05
I think they're definitely be one of the toughest challenges
32:07
they've had all year. You know, the total is low, but
32:13
I guess that were all the players out and everything.
32:16
I do like this under, even though it went down, I wish I
32:20
played it when I made the made the graphic at 50 1/2, but I'm
32:25
still pretty comfortable at 44 1/2 landing under for those
32:28
reasons. And yeah, I think the if any
32:31
team scores, it's going to be probably Louisville, like 24 to
32:34
three or something like that. So that's the way I'm leaning on
32:38
that. Peter, any final thoughts on
32:40
that game? No, I think Nail, I mean, I was
32:42
going to play under all day. I mean, that 50 1/2 was to me
32:45
way too high. But when I went to play it, it
32:48
was already down to 45 1/2 and I was like, Jesus, now we're
32:52
talking almost a touchdown down. That's that's a lot, right?
32:55
And and that's just screams to me what the hell, right.
32:59
And yeah, I'm to difference point.
33:01
I just ran away. Like I don't know what's going
33:03
on. Yeah, it's all feels like an
33:05
under to me, but that's just too much and I'm not throwing the
33:10
money at that thing. So yeah, I tapped out of it.
33:12
Understood. Understandable too.
33:15
All right, the New Orleans Bowl played in New Orleans, go
33:19
figure. Tuesday, December 23rd we got
33:21
Western Kentucky -3 1/2 with the over under a 56 1/2 against
33:26
Southern Miss, a couple of players in the transfer Port of
33:30
Western Kentucky, cornerback Down Flowers and running back
33:33
Livelle Wright. I didn't see anything for
33:35
Southern Miss so we'll start with Peter on this one.
33:38
Where are you coming down? Yeah, when I looked at this, the
33:41
number is 57 1/2. It's been kicking around that.
33:44
That level is not that much different.
33:46
I was leaning under on this. You know, I think Western
33:49
Kentucky's offense is a bit less explosive away from home.
33:53
You know, Southern Miss likes to get into some defensive battles
33:56
to a degree. So, you know, and I do think
33:58
with bowls, we do tend to see at least some conservative
34:01
coaching, at least in the first half, which kind of leaned
34:04
toward an under with a number that high.
34:06
So I mean, there were certain factors here leaning into under,
34:11
but I didn't feel all that comfortable with it.
34:13
I I just don't know Western Kentucky good enough to to be
34:16
able to strip it apart like that.
34:18
But to me, it feels like an under.
34:19
But I wasn't I wasn't overly confident in it, but I'm still
34:22
leading that direction. So that's that's my thought,
34:25
Darren. Yeah, I agree with the lean to
34:28
the under here. This spreads up to Western
34:29
Kentucky, laying 5 1/2 now. And all right, so here's what
34:33
scares me to death about this one Southern Miss who had
34:36
Charles Hough as their head coach.
34:38
Remember, he coached Marshall last year, was unceremoniously
34:41
booted from that position, brought like 742 players with
34:46
him to Southern Miss. Well, Charles Hough is on his
34:50
way to Memphis. So if I wake up Tuesday on the
34:55
23rd and half the Southern Miss teams opted out, you know, the
35:00
spread could go up to 6 1/2. So yeah, I mean, just because
35:06
Charles Hough apparently pretty popular with the players to to
35:10
get, you know, 20 some odd guys come over with him from
35:12
Marshall. Why wouldn't that happen again?
35:16
I remember last year, like, Marshall had to drop out of a
35:18
bowl bid because they didn't have enough players.
35:20
And I don't see that happening with Southern Miss here.
35:23
But I think if you're going to do anything on this, I would
35:28
maybe take Western Kentucky because I got a feeling this
35:30
spread might actually go up as we get closer and and we see
35:34
more opt outs come in. But Western Kentucky are nothing
35:37
for me, even though the best of numbers obviously gone.
35:40
I just don't know who Charles Hough is, is stuffing in his
35:44
luggage and taking a memo with him.
35:45
So avoiding avoiding this like no other game.
35:51
OK, we're the key move. We got the Scooters coffee
35:53
Frisco bowl. I have seen no opt outs in this
35:56
between UNLV and Ohio. Opening line is UNLV -4 1/2 with
36:01
over under of 62 1/2. I was leaning UNLV.
36:06
Decided to back off on this a little bit but we'll start with
36:09
Peter on this one. How you feeling?
36:12
Man, that just feels high. I know you're only a heavy
36:16
tempo. They play a fast tempo fine,
36:19
yes, sure. But I mean, Ohio can slow a game
36:23
down a little bit. Not that they're going to stop
36:25
them, but they can slow it down with that big of a number.
36:28
You get 1/4. That's a little sluggish.
36:31
I it gets, gets slowed down, a turnover to anything, right?
36:36
That's just a big number. You know, you need Ohio to do
36:39
something as well, by the way, you know, and, and Ohio's pretty
36:43
good at forcing some longer drive.
36:44
So they don't, they don't, I don't expect a lot of quick
36:46
scores over and over again. I don't expect to see that.
36:49
So that does feel like a under to me.
36:51
It's just a big number here. So yeah, I mean, I, I wouldn't
36:56
UNLV is probably going to win the game.
36:57
I wouldn't be wouldn't be surprised by that.
36:59
But yeah, that number just feels high to me.
37:02
So I'm I'm definitely leaning on the under here, but I I did not
37:05
play it. Darren.
37:08
Yeah, I agree with that. Under and and this game, I was
37:10
actually going to bet UNLV until I found out we were actually
37:13
going to record next Tuesday, like four or five hours before
37:16
this game kicks off. So I'm holding off here,
37:20
especially with the Ohio head coaching news today.
37:25
And I know kids can't do anything until a replacement is
37:27
hired, but nothing is stopping any of them from from from not
37:32
playing. I did rear somewhere where
37:34
Parker Navarro may not play. I'm afraid if that happens the
37:38
Reds going to go sky high, but I am going to hold off until we
37:44
record on Tuesday. But right now I have a serious
37:48
lean towards UNLV and I think this total is kind of high.
37:50
Pete, I agree with you. When I saw that I'm like wow,
37:52
that's ridiculous. But I mean UNLV was playing such
37:55
ass defense early on. But last month of the season it
37:58
hasn't been that bad. So I just wondered this is if
37:59
this is the case of a team way out West.
38:03
Everybody that reads anything, oh defense sucks, defense,
38:05
defense sucks. Last month it has not been bad.
38:08
So I agree that this total is way too high.
38:12
I've watched some Ohio games and have been bored to tears
38:15
watching them on offense. It's not pretty.
38:18
UNLV is not going to get, you know, 51 on their own here.
38:21
But all things being equal, I would have bet this.
38:25
But because we're recording again hours before this game
38:30
kicks off, I'm going to. I'm holding off for right now.
38:34
Just don't hold off on the under.
38:35
If anybody wants the under out there, don't hold off on.
38:38
I agree with that. What's?
38:40
Going to happen in Ohio, that number's going to come down.
38:42
So take that now if you want the under.
38:45
Exactly. All right, Well, this game,
38:48
we're also going to hold off until next week, correct?
38:50
Yeah, we thought we were going to record on the 24th, but the
38:54
23rd worked better for us. So we'll hold off on that 'cause
38:57
I know Pete's Pete's got Pete and I actually welcome my
39:01
Rainbow Warriors here. We'll wait for the opt outs.
39:05
We'll cover that one on Tuesday. All right, so we're going to
39:10
move along. Let's just wrap this up a little
39:11
bit. All right, guys, what you got,
39:15
Pete, Let's start with you. All right, ODU.
39:18
And southern Florida over 55 1/2.
39:22
Missouri State, Arkansas State 154 1/2, Alabama and Oklahoma
39:28
over 40 1/2 and James Madison and Oregon over 47 1/2.
39:34
All right, I got South Florida -6 1/2 tonight over all.
39:37
Dominion gave that picked out last week.
39:39
Oregon -21 1/2 over James Madison.
39:42
I also have the over of 50 1/2 in that game.
39:45
I have the under of 44 1/2, the Toledo, Louisville game and
39:50
Miami and Texas A and M / 51. Darren, All right, yeah, just a
39:57
heads up on the the numbers that you might have met there.
39:59
Pete did have a play on Army Navy, which was technically now
40:02
it's disappeared. I can't read it.
40:04
There we go. That was the last regular season
40:08
game. Since Tim and I did not have
40:11
anything on it, I threw that into Pete's record.
40:13
So he did hit the under there and those season numbers that
40:17
you see, that is the official tally for the regular season for
40:22
us. Everything else is bowls.
40:24
Tim, unfortunately, Boise State did not get well.
40:28
They scored 38 or no, I'm sorry, Washington scored 38.
40:30
Boise State did not help. And as we're sitting here, the
40:34
this one game, the Old Dominion South Florida game that you guys
40:36
have a bet on, that's kicking off about 10 minutes ago that
40:39
started. But tonight, later on, I do have
40:41
Delaware plus three over Louisiana.
40:43
I also have NC State land four and half over Memphis.
40:45
And apparently I did bet old mess on 17 1/2.
40:48
Sometimes I thought I did not, but yeah, I did.
40:52
So yeah, forget everything I said about holding off.
40:55
There's not going to be any opt outs here.
40:57
It's a bracket game, for crying out loud.
40:59
Yeah, I did. Later.
41:02
All right, well, that's going to wrap it up.
41:04
Also, we do have another episode out with myself and Craig from
41:08
Final Score Podcast. We're arguing about the playoff
41:12
structure. We're trying to change it.
41:14
That'll drop sometimes that up yet, Darren is that.
41:17
No, I'm probably going to put that up probably on Sunday,
41:20
because the last Sunday video I posted actually did pretty.
41:23
Well, for us, all right, we'll put that up Sunday.
41:25
Be sure to look out for that again, please like and subscribe
41:30
to our YouTube channel and on Spotify, leave us your picks for
41:33
the bulls. We'd love to hear from you.
41:35
Thank you all very much for listening, and we'll see you
41:38
next week.