Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / How 'open' is the Strait of Hormuz

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How 'open' is the Strait of Hormuz · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC World Service.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I'm Will Chalk.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Well.
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  Speaker 1: Today we're looking at the Strait of holl Moose and
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  Speaker 1: exactly what the situation is there right now. We're joined
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  Speaker 1: by John Donoson, our correspondent in Jerusalem. So, John, we've
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  Speaker 1: seen the US and Iran exchange strikes again over the weekend,
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  Speaker 1: and at the heart of it was the fact that
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  Speaker 1: Iran struck a cargo ship in the Strait of holl
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  Speaker 1: Moose because it said it was taking the wrong route.
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  Speaker 1: So John, let's talk about those roots through the Strait
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  Speaker 1: of Hormose. Then why are they so important?
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  Speaker 2: Well, look, what America wants out of this deal is
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  Speaker 2: for the strait to fully reopen, and that was clearly
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  Speaker 2: a priority of President Trump given the damage that its
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  Speaker 2: closure has done to the global economy. It's meant higher
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  Speaker 2: energy prices, higher petrol prices, global inflation, higher interest rates,
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  Speaker 2: So it has really affected the amount of money in
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  Speaker 2: people's pockets for billions of people around the world. However,
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  Speaker 2: what Iran wants is to administer how that reopening happens,
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  Speaker 2: and what's been happening, according to the Iranians is the
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  Speaker 2: Americans have been routing ships closer to Aman, which is
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  Speaker 2: on the other side of the Strait of hoe Moos
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  Speaker 2: from Iran, and the Iranians say that's not acceptable. They
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  Speaker 2: want to be deciding the route that they say was
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  Speaker 2: set out in this memorandum of understanding, and essentially they
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  Speaker 2: want to control who goes in and out.
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  Speaker 1: But you use the phrase there the Strait of hor
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  Speaker 1: Moos is open, how open actually is it? Because traffic
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  Speaker 1: is nowhere near is it the levels it was before
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  Speaker 1: this all started.
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  Speaker 2: No, So before the war there were around about one
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  Speaker 2: hundred and thirty ships so tankers, cargo ships passing through
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  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormos every day. Twenty percent of the
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  Speaker 2: world's oil passes through the Strait of horn Moos. Now
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  Speaker 2: we know that since the Memorandum of Understanding was announced
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  Speaker 2: two weeks ago, we think around two high hundred ships
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  Speaker 2: have passed out in total, so nowhere near those pre
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  Speaker 2: war levels, and there are still hundreds of ships stranded
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  Speaker 2: in the straight of four Moves. Sailors on boards have
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  Speaker 2: been there four months, desperate to get out, and despite
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  Speaker 2: America's efforts to get ships moving, that hasn't really happened,
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  Speaker 2: and quite a high proportion of the ships that have
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  Speaker 2: been allowed to leave have been carrying Iranian oil because
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  Speaker 2: one of the key concessions that the Iranians got out
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  Speaker 2: of this memorandum of understanding was the lifting of oil
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  Speaker 2: sanctions on a temporary basis on Iranian oil, and that
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  Speaker 2: will allow the Iranians to get billions of dollars back
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  Speaker 2: into their economy, which has been hit incredibly hard, of course,
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  Speaker 2: by sanctions four years now.
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  Speaker 1: All that there has been so much discussion about what
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  Speaker 1: the aims of this war were, what it's achieved from
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  Speaker 1: a US perspective, is it fair to say that one
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  Speaker 1: thing it definitely has achieved is almost woken or ran
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  Speaker 1: up to what incredible bar argeting power its blockades of
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  Speaker 1: the Strait can have.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you've hit the nail on the head there.
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  Speaker 2: And I think what we've seen over the weekend where
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  Speaker 2: we've had Iran carrying out drone strikes on ten because
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  Speaker 2: it said if strayed out of the shipping lane that
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  Speaker 2: they want, is Iran exercising that leverage which it now
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  Speaker 2: knows it has. So one of the questions that still
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  Speaker 2: to be decided when this broader deal is concluded and
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  Speaker 2: we've got like a sixty day ceasefire period supposedly now
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  Speaker 2: to negotiate that broader deal. Is will it go back
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  Speaker 2: to the status quo as it was before the war,
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  Speaker 2: when there were no tolls for passing through the still moves,
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  Speaker 2: or will Iran start to begin imposing tolls. And we've
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  Speaker 2: had different messages from the Iranians over the past few weeks,
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  Speaker 2: but certainly they have said that things will not go
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  Speaker 2: back to the status quo before the war. So, you know,
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  Speaker 2: that is quite a major loss for the United States
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  Speaker 2: and frankly the global economy.
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  Speaker 1: In terms of a ceasefire, more generally, in the hopes
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  Speaker 1: for a permanent deal to be signed, Can it feasibly
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  Speaker 1: go ahead unless the issue of the Strait of Hormos
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  Speaker 1: is conclusively sorted out?
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  Speaker 2: Well, look, the reopening of the strait was clearly a
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  Speaker 2: priority for the Americans. It was only really the big
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  Speaker 2: achievement of this memorandum of understanding because all the other
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  Speaker 2: more difficult issues around nuclear program, it's support for proxy
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  Speaker 2: groups such as has Bolla and Lebanon and Hamas in
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  Speaker 2: Gaza were not resolved. Neither was the issue of its
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  Speaker 2: ballistic missile program. So you know, if this deal is
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  Speaker 2: going to progress, then the Strait has got to reopen.
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  Speaker 2: And I do think that on both sides, both the
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  Speaker 2: Americans and the Uranians, there is no real appetite to
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  Speaker 2: resume a full scale war. This has been a very
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  Speaker 2: unpopular war in the United States. President Trump has of
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  Speaker 2: course got crucial midterm congressional elections coming up for his
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  Speaker 2: Republican Party later in the year in November. Polls show
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  Speaker 2: the war has not been a winner for them and
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  Speaker 2: they've been losing support, the Republican Party. And also for
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  Speaker 2: the Iranians, of course, well, they have been absolutely pounded
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  Speaker 2: by US and Israeli military, so there is no real
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  Speaker 2: appetite for them to resume the war either. But they
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  Speaker 2: are both trying to get the best deal they can
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  Speaker 2: out for it for themselves. So if we keep seeing
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  Speaker 2: skirmishes escalations in violence like this, you could see the
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  Speaker 2: deal begin to unravel. Although we're hearing that now an
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  Speaker 2: agreement has been made by both the United States in
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  Speaker 2: Iran to try and stand down from a military their
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  Speaker 2: military positions to allow shipping to resume. We'll have to
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  Speaker 2: see what happens in the next few days weeks.
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  Speaker 1: Now of course, John, this isn't just about Iran and
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  Speaker 1: the US. There is Israel and Lebanon to be concerned
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  Speaker 1: with as well. So how much more complicated does that make.
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  Speaker 2: This Well, it's a big potential complication. Iran has insisted
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  Speaker 2: that Lebanon must be part of this broader deal with
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  Speaker 2: the United States. But Israeli troops continue to occupy a
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  Speaker 2: large chunk of southern Lebanon, about five percent of the country,
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  Speaker 2: and in recent weeks, despite supposedly there being a ceasefire,
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  Speaker 2: fighting has continued there between Hezbola and Israel, and of
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  Speaker 2: course Hezbola have never signed up to any sort of ceasefire.
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  Speaker 2: The ceasefire was done by the Lebanese government and the Israelis,
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  Speaker 2: so you know that also has the potential to see
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  Speaker 2: these talks unravel. Now, since the end of last week,
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  Speaker 2: we have seen a bit of a de escalation in
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  Speaker 2: violence in southern Lebanon, but as I say, Israeli forces
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  Speaker 2: continue to remain there, and while they do that is
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  Speaker 2: completely unacceptable to Hasbolla. Is going to be difficult to
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  Speaker 2: keep a lid on the conflict there too, and the
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  Speaker 2: Ausraelis have stressed over the weekend that they have no
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  Speaker 2: intention of withdrawing their forces from southern Lebanon. So it's
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  Speaker 2: another factor in what is a very complex regional conflict.
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  Speaker 1: This all shows, doesn't it, just how complicated this is.
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  Speaker 1: You mentioned sixty days to do it. I mean, what
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  Speaker 1: are the hopes for these talks and what are the
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  Speaker 1: next steps for them as well?
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  Speaker 2: Well, just a short while ago, President Trump has put
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  Speaker 2: out on social media that talks will resume in Doha
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  Speaker 2: in the Gulf on Tuesday. I've not seen confirmation that
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  Speaker 2: the Iranians are going to attend. We've had announcement of
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  Speaker 2: talks taking place at negotiations taking place before, and then
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  Speaker 2: they haven't actually materialized. So let's wait and see if
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  Speaker 2: that happens. As I say, though, you know all the
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  Speaker 2: really difficult issues, and we've barely talked about that today,
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  Speaker 2: notably Iran's nuclear program, which was the whole reason, or
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  Speaker 2: certainly the biggest reason for which Israel and the United
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  Speaker 2: States said they were going to war to dismantle Iran's
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  Speaker 2: nuclear ambition ambitions. Well, that hasn't been resolved at all,
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  Speaker 2: and we've only got initially sixty days to do it.
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  Speaker 2: So we're making pretty small steps at the moment, with
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  Speaker 2: quite a few setbacks on the way too.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks John. That is John Donison, our correspondent in Jerusalem. There.
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• 8:47
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