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Personnel schematics and trends for the Buffalo Bills offense | DC · Disguised Coverage

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  Speaker 1: It's thirty eight. All bills can win.
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  Speaker 1: A and T in this offline edition of Disguised Coverage
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  Speaker 1: that I am pre recording and uploading due to the
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  Speaker 1: hecticness of my schedule the past several weeks. Apologies for
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  Speaker 1: not having a show the past two weeks. Didn't want
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  Speaker 1: to go a third week without having a show, but
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  Speaker 1: was going to be a little bit difficult, So still
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  Speaker 1: want to get an episode in. Hence the offline, pre
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  Speaker 1: recorded nature of this episode. And in this episode, we
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  Speaker 1: are going to dive into personnel pieces for the Buffalo
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  Speaker 1: Bills in twenty twenty five and anticipating some of those
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  Speaker 1: personnel pieces in twenty twenty six. As you know, we've
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  Speaker 1: gotten to the slow part of the offseason before training
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  Speaker 1: camp starts to rev up. This is the time on
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  Speaker 1: the show where I really like to dive into a
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  Speaker 1: bunch of schematic and structural elements for this Bills team,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: looking into the team themselves, looking at other teams across
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  Speaker 1: the league, trying to dive and dip into trends and
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  Speaker 1: aspects of the game across the entire league. Who's at
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  Speaker 1: the forefront of what movement, you know, what are teams
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  Speaker 1: doing well, how can the Bills tap into that, dapt
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  Speaker 1: into some of those pieces as well. And so that's
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  Speaker 1: kind of, you know, what's set the stage and the
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  Speaker 1: foundation for this episode, and in that vein as we
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: start to deep dive into several elements of the Buffalo
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  Speaker 1: Bills for the next several weeks, we're gonna start with
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  Speaker 1: this episode and the thirteen personnel conversation and how that
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  Speaker 1: ties into the Buffalo Bills, how that ties into their
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  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel usage, what we can expect for twenty twenty six,
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  Speaker 1: and just overall what their heavier quote unquote personnel groupings
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  Speaker 1: looked like last year, and how that ties into the
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  Speaker 1: go forward as well. For those who don't know, thirteen
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  Speaker 1: personnel has become a large discussion point in the offseason
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: this year, largely because of the Los Angeles Rams usage
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: of it. Sean McVay one of the best offensive minds
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  Speaker 1: in football, honestly, one of the best offensive minds in
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  Speaker 1: football of all time. Already, even at this you know,
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  Speaker 1: stage of his life and his career, he tends to
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: be one of those guys that when he starts to
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: do something and you know, the NFL being the copycat
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  Speaker 1: league that it is, he tends to be one of
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  Speaker 1: those guys that you know, people look to in point
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  Speaker 1: two and pick from and pull from when it comes
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  Speaker 1: to you know, hey, what can we tap into a
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  Speaker 1: little bit more?
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  Speaker 3: What can we do?
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  Speaker 1: What are the trend setters and the league leaders doing.
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  Speaker 1: Who's ahead of the curve in certain aspects and it
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  Speaker 1: feels like, whether right the or wrongly, Sean McVay tends
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  Speaker 1: to be at the forefront of league trends and movements
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  Speaker 1: on the offensive side of the ball. And you know,
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  Speaker 1: their big one, or one of the big ones from
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  Speaker 1: last year was their thirteen personnel usage. Thirteen personnel for
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  Speaker 1: those who don't know, that means one running back, three
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  Speaker 1: tight ends. The Rams overshadowed the NFL in thirteen personnel
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  Speaker 1: usage last year with four hundred and ten plays out
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  Speaker 1: of thirteen personnel. These Steelers were second in thirteen personnel
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  Speaker 1: usage at one hundred and forty two plays.
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  Speaker 3: The Steelers, though, was a little bit different.
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  Speaker 1: They kind of had to go to more tight end
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  Speaker 1: sets and looks because of their questions in the wide
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: receiver room and just kind of from a roster built standpoint,
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  Speaker 1: roster built standpoint. I should say, you know in that
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  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel usage rate for the Rams was a thirty
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  Speaker 1: point four to eight usage rate, again also first in
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  Speaker 1: the league. So they dwarfed everyone when it came to
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  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel usage rate. And when you look at the
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  Speaker 1: Bills the Bills in twenty twenty five, they ran sixty
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  Speaker 1: four plays from thirteen personnel, which was eleventh.
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  Speaker 3: Average league wide was sixty five plays.
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  Speaker 1: But they were good, very good in fact, when they
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  Speaker 1: did go with thirteen personnel. Though again the sample size
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  Speaker 1: it is much smaller, you know, versus the Rams. Again,
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  Speaker 1: the Rams having four hundred and ten plays most in
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  Speaker 1: the league, the Bills being eleventh.
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  Speaker 3: With sixty four.
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  Speaker 1: Again even the Steelers at second one hundred and forty two,
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  Speaker 1: the Bills more middling sixty four. So again sample size
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  Speaker 1: is smaller, which will skew some numbers potentially. But the
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  Speaker 1: Bills thirteen personnel advanced metrics. They were first in EPA
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  Speaker 1: per play, They were setecond in success rate, They were
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  Speaker 1: second in EPA per pass, They were first in passing
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  Speaker 1: success rate. They were third in explosive pass rate, which
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: is passes a fifteen or more yards. They were third
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  Speaker 1: in EPA per rush, they were fourth in rushing success rate,
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  Speaker 1: and they were second in explosive run rate, which is
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  Speaker 1: runs of ten or more yards. So, you know, a
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  Speaker 1: trend potentially coming forward into this year for twenty twenty six.
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  Speaker 1: You know, not just for the Bills, I think league
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  Speaker 1: wide is and the not even just thirteen personnel, but
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  Speaker 1: more tight end usage in general. But I do think
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  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel is kind of going to become more of
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  Speaker 1: an in fashion thing, especially if we look towards this
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  Speaker 1: past draft and we saw more of you know, the
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  Speaker 1: more traditional in line or why tight ends making a
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  Speaker 1: big comeback. The Jags kind of started that run on
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  Speaker 1: tight ends and the draft class, but we saw a
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  Speaker 1: lot of them. We're seeing teams, you know, these past
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  Speaker 1: several years, and it's not just with the Rams.
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  Speaker 3: The Bills are tied.
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  Speaker 1: Into it too, right, this movement towards okay, defenses are
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  Speaker 1: in nickel. How can we kind of create some mismatches
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  Speaker 1: and force a defense's hand a little bit. Let's go
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  Speaker 1: with more tight ends on the field. Let's go twelve personnel,
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  Speaker 1: Let's go thirteen personnel. This idea of having guys on
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  Speaker 1: the field who are viable is both run blockers and also.
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  Speaker 3: As pass catchers. Kind of puts that defense into a bind.
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  Speaker 1: Do you match with bass, do you match with bigger
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  Speaker 1: bodies and bigger personnel. Do you match with lighter bodies
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  Speaker 1: and play for more of the pass aspect? Now some
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: of that, of course, and you know this ties into
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  Speaker 1: the Bills, especially, some of that is tied into are
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  Speaker 1: your tight ends viable as both run blockers and pass catchers?
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  Speaker 1: And I think that's where you know, there are still
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  Speaker 1: questions with the Bills, especially with Dalton Kincaid. You know,
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  Speaker 1: what can he truly be as a run blocker? You know,
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  Speaker 1: even on the other end of the spectrum, Jackson Hawes
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  Speaker 1: no questions about him as a blocker in any way,
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  Speaker 1: shape or form. What can he be as a pass catcher?
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  Speaker 1: And then you have Dawson Knox who kind of lives
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  Speaker 1: in the light of the dark in terms of pass
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  Speaker 1: catching ability and blocking ability overall. But the Bills success
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  Speaker 1: out of thirteen personnel in twenty twenty five is notable,
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  Speaker 1: very notable. And again, so what does that mean going forward?
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  Speaker 1: Do they use more thirteen personnel this year? Dalton Kinkaid
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  Speaker 1: being hurt last year, maybe they would have had a
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  Speaker 1: higher usage rate of thirteen personnel. If he doesn't go down,
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  Speaker 1: maybe the offense looks different. Maybe offense looks even more
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  Speaker 1: different if Josh Palmer doesn't get hurt, if there aren't
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  Speaker 1: the questions at wide receiver that they had, if Keyan
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  Speaker 1: Coleman kind of stayed the course and continued on that
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  Speaker 1: upward trajectory that he showed in camp. So there's a
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  Speaker 1: multitude of variables going through, you know, when it comes
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  Speaker 1: specifically the bills, but when you're talking about league trends
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  Speaker 1: and league wide, this idea of heavier personnel groupings twelve personnel,
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  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel, twenty one personnel for some teams, six offensive
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  Speaker 1: linemen sets and going jumbo for some teams. This idea
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  Speaker 1: of using personnel groupings to create mismatches for a defense
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  Speaker 1: and disadvantageous situations for the defense, using personnel groupings to
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  Speaker 1: dictate to a defense, and something that I have said
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  Speaker 1: on the show for a lot of you, you know,
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  Speaker 1: being able to access more of the menu without having
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  Speaker 1: to turn the page, being in personnel groupings where it
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  Speaker 1: could be a run, it could be a pass, it
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  Speaker 1: could be a condensed formation. It could be a spread
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  Speaker 1: formation and you got to have the right body types
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  Speaker 1: and the skill sets. It could be heavier guys or
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  Speaker 1: bigger body guys that are athletic like Dalton Kinkaid, or
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  Speaker 1: it could be you know, wide receivers that can bang
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  Speaker 1: a little bit in block like what Tyrol Shavers was
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  Speaker 1: last year. Wide receiver, but the type of you know,
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  Speaker 1: a wide receiver that if you're an eleven personnel, it's
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  Speaker 1: almost like eleven and a half personnel because he can
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  Speaker 1: bang with some dudes and clear out some guys.
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  Speaker 3: He was very good last year as a blocker and
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  Speaker 3: a really fun piece.
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  Speaker 1: And again the bill of success out of thirteen personnel
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  Speaker 1: last year very notable, but I also thought was notable.
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  Speaker 3: What I also thought was.
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  Speaker 1: Notable, I should say, was their diversification in terms of
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  Speaker 1: their heavy personnel package overall, like bigger bodies. What are
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  Speaker 1: they doing so twenty two personnel to running backs, two
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  Speaker 1: tight ends twelve point seven percent drate, twelve personnel one
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  Speaker 1: running back, two tight ends eleven point one percent usage rate,
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  Speaker 1: twenty one personnel two running backs, one tight end eight
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  Speaker 1: point nine percent usage rate, and then thirteen personnel we
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: talked about the overall snaps, but from a percentage standpoint
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  Speaker 1: five percent usage rate in twenty twenty five, So a
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  Speaker 1: little bit of everything you're looking at there, you know,
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  Speaker 1: so almost thirteen percent twenty two personnel, eleven percent twelve personnel,
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  Speaker 1: almost nine percent twenty one, and then five percent thirteen.
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  Speaker 1: They're kind of dipping into everything a little bit. It's
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  Speaker 1: not okay, you know, when we go heavy, we go thirteen.
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  Speaker 1: When we go heavy, we go twelve, we go heavy,
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  Speaker 1: we go twenty one. It was a little bit of
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  Speaker 1: you know, three main buckets and then a little sprinkling
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  Speaker 1: of that fourth bucket in thirteen personnel. Now the twenty
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: two and twenty one personnel grouping should see a dip
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, now that Reggie Gilliam is no
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: longer with the Buffalo Bills. He saw two hundred and
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: fifty nine snaps in twenty twenty five. So not having
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Gillium on the field just by removing him, even if
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: they replace him with a true fullback, I don't think
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that if they go with a true fullback on the
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: roster this year, that player is going to see the
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  Speaker 1: amount of snaps or the quality of snaps that Reggie
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Gilliam saw, So I think it's fair to expect to
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  Speaker 1: dip in twenty one and twenty two personnel, you know,
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  Speaker 1: usag rate in twenty twenty six, expecting that to drop
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  Speaker 1: a little bit, but they're still going to go heavy
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  Speaker 1: a little bit. So I would expect if they're going
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  Speaker 1: to dip in twenty two and twenty one, that should
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  Speaker 1: lead to a rise in twelve and thirteen. Even if
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Gilliam state, I think twelve and thirteen would have seen
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: a boost just because of a healthy Dalton Kincaid. I
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: think when he's healthy, they want to get him on
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the field as much as they can because he is
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: a mismatch creator. Granted, and I don't want to get
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: too much in this conversation this episode, but granted, you
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: know there are certain limitations to how you can use
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: him because of his lack of inline ability. Although he
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: has put on roughly I think ten pounds of muscle
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: this offseason. We'll see if there's more viability to him
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: and more of the y or the inline tight end
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: aspects this year, but twelve and thirteen is going to
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: see a rise. I also think you could see Dalton
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Jackson Hawes, I should say, I'm sorry. I expect to
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: see Jackson Hawes and more of like a full back
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: h tight end usage role kind of all over the
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: place a little bit. He can line up in the
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: backfield and be kind of your offset full back or
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: your you know, I formation full back and do some things.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: You can have him be static and move on the snap.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: You can send him in glass motion is you know,
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  Speaker 1: shifts with him. There's a lot of different things you
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: can do with Jackson Hawes. So I expect to see
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  Speaker 1: a rise in twelve and thirteen, which we're going to
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: talk about a little bit later as well. I also
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: think this will tie into you know, what the Bills
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: offensive wrinkle or tweak will be in twenty twenty six.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: So this past year, again Kincaid hurt some questions at
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: wide receiver variables all around, but we saw a lot
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: of heavy personnel package diversity in twenty twenty five. Another
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: thing that we also saw was Jackson Hawes essentially replacing
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bill six offensive linemen books from previous years.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: So the Bills in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: four led the NFL in six plus offensive lineman rate.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: They were at twelve point eight percent in twenty twenty
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: three and fifteen point two percent in twenty twenty four,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: league leading in both of those, twelve point eight in
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, fifteen point two in twenty twenty four.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of Bills fans know, you know,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the inclusion of Alec Anderson a couple of years ago,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: David Edwards the year before, you know, some years before that.
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: You know, it was that six offensive lineman.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: It was a nice weapons piece for the Buffalo Bills,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: even to the point that we were all kind of
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: all waiting, Okay, they go six offensive linemen their mastioning teams,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: when is it going to be play action and we're
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: going to get the pass to Alec Anderson or David
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Edwards and we're going to get that touchdown, which unfortunately
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: never came to fruition. But Bills were league leaders in
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: those six offensive lineman sets twelve point eight percent in
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, fifteen point two percent in twenty twenty four.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: That dropped to one point nine percent sent in twenty
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: twenty five, which was twentieth overall. So they went from
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: leading the league in twenty three and twenty four, and
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I should say in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: four to being twentieth in twenty twenty five, and again
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: the rates twelve point eight and twenty twenty three, fifteen
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: point two and twenty twenty four down to one point
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: nine in twenty twenty five, and I think a lot
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: of that was due to the drafting of Jackson Hawes.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Now you've got this tight end who can mash and
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: block and hold his own against edges and defensive ends
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: and linebackers, and can pass block a little bit against
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: those dudes as well, but is very very viable against
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: those dudes in the run and offers you more of
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: a pass catching route running component than you know your
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: six offensive lineman, whether it's an offensive tackle or guard
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: or whoever it is.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: So they bring.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Hawes in that was a big tweak and a big
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: change essentially him replacing their six offensive lineman looks for
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: previous years. This upcoming season, I'm personally looking for more
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel with Dalton Kincaid split out and or detached
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: from the formation, to take it advantage of his ability
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: as a route runner and pass catcher and get him
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: more favorable blocking matchups. This could also again tie into
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: the Bills going heavy but operating from more traditional spread looks,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: so it doesn't have to be Okay, we're in thirteen
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: personnel and all the tight ends are kind of attached
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: to or close to the formation or line of scrimmage
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: where we're creating you know this, you know, seven eight
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: man surface type of deal. It could be there in
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel, but they're aligned in a three x two
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: gun empty type of formation.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: I expect that from the Bills. I also expect more
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: of that league wide.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: I'm going to get into a little bit of why
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: I expect that as we be for it in this episode. Also,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: like I mentioned, I'm anticipating you know more Jackson Hawes
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: as a full back or you know, an F and
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: H type look. He's going to be an inline tight end.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: He could be hipped off the inline tight end. He
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: could be in the backfield, he could be shifted, he
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: could be motioned out on the snap pre snap. All
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: these things I think you can do with him and
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: tie into his blocking ability and the bind can put
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: a defense in because of that. I also think he's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a bit of an underrated pass catcher, and I don't
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: expect him to be Tucker Craft, you know, as a
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: guy after the catch, or George Kittle or Travis Kelce,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: you know, some of the tight ends who've been the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: best in the league to pass rever yeers. I don't
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: think he's going to be Brock Bauers or Trade McBride,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: but I do think he is serviceable to above serviceable,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: depending on how you want to quantify it or classify
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: it as a pass catcher. And I think that's more
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: than enough given how good of a blocker he is. Also,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five, the thirteen personnel used to rate
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: for the Bills. They had a twenty four percent pass
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: rate out of thirteen personnel in twenty twenty five, which
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: is twenty fourth. So long story short there, if they
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: were in thirteen, they were likely running the football. I
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: expect that pass rate out of thirteen personnel to go
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: up and the Bills to weaponize their tight ends as
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: pass catchers against the backdrop of that.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: Bill's run game being a threat.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: And if defenses don't account for the Bills tight ends
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: as pass catching threats in terms of what personnel they
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: match with, the Bills can just mash him on the
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: ground like they have in the past. So if teams
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: come out and they say all the Bills are in thirteen,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: we're still going to stay in nickel. You know, we think,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: you know, we can, we can deal with the pass
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: game that way, and we'll kind of take whatever happens
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: against the run. The Bills will say, Okay, we're just
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: gonna grind you to dust and mash you for six, seven, eight,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: maybe twelve thirteen yards a pop or more on the ground.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: And then if you start to go heavy, if you
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: match with more linebackers or bigger personnel to try and
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: combat that run game. Now it's like, okay, we're seeing
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: that call from you know, from upstairs. You know this
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: is the personnel. They're going heavy. They're going big to
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: try and match our thirteen. Okay, now maybe we go
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: spread a little bit, and now some of those bigger
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: body types have to contend with Dalton Kinkaid in the slot,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Dalton Kinkaid out wide, James Cook in the slot, or
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: out wide Dawson Knox where you want to put him.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Even Haues again to a degree, So I expect to
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: see the Bills leaning into more thirteen personnel this year
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: because one, they were so good at it last year
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: when they did use it. Two, it is part of
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: a league trend that I think a lot of teams
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: are going to go into more.
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: Three.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: I expect them to go into it because they'll be
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: able to run the football from it.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: And it helps Kinkaid a little bit.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: You can go thirteen but have him you know, be
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: in the slot or have him be out wide, and
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: you can have haws and knocks as your tight ends
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: attached to the formation and on the surface so they
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: can people move and do all that kind of stuff.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: So it just makes sense from a league trend standpoint,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: also something they were good at last year in the
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: air and on the ground. It also helps one of
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: their better players in Dalton Kincaid. And I also think
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: it could give them a schematic advantage if they expand
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: upon it and start to go with thirteen personnel, but
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: go from more of a spread look or an empty look.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: You know, you don't have to be you know, condensed.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Still thirteen personnel here comes condensed formations and you know,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: getting vertical with the run game or whatever it is.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: You can go thirteen but go spread, So I think
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: it'll be a mixed thirteen personnel condensed run the football,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel spread run the football, pass it also pass
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: out of the condensed looks, play action, all these things
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: that one personnel grouping I think could really be a
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: good weapon for this Bills team, given how they're built,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: given their success out of that personnel grouping last year,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: and then given where league trends are going in terms
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: of what offenses want to do to kind of put
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: defenses into a bind a little bit. Also tying into that,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: you know, I mentioned that that passing aspect of the
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Bills with thirteen personnel this year, the low pass rate
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: last year, passing more a bit this year, but also
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: going spread kind of throwing defenses off even further. In
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: that vein, you know, I started to look at thirteen
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: personnel teams and how they were using thirteen personnel to
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: pass the football, and then also you're just looking at
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: you know, so looking at the rams and teams in
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: general in that vein to try and look forward to
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six teams that either had a lot of
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel reps or team and or teams that have
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: good young tight ends that they want to get into
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: space or use to exploit defenses, and or teams that
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: are just good at using their tight ends, or offensive
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: coordinators or play callers or designers who are good at
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: using their tight ends.
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: And that led me to several teams.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: The first one I really want to lead off with
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: and hone in on the Chicago Bears with Ben Johnson,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: head coach now for the Bears, formerly the offensive coordinator
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: for the Lions.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: He is one of the best.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's a very good play caller and play
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: designer in general, but I think he's arguably the best
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: when it comes to tight end usage and designed This
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: goes back to his time with Detroit, like what he
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: was doing with Sam Laporta and how he was creating
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: advantageous looks for him and what they were doing pre
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: and post snap and working in the tight end and
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: marrying the run in the past. He's so good in
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: that regard and I really do think he's arguably the
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: best when it comes to utilizing tight ends. And he
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: comes in last year takes over the Bears their first
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: pick in Round one. His tight end Coaston Loveland, And
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: now you have Loveland and Cole Kmet and durham smythe
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: you have these three tight ends that can allow you
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: to live in the light, in the dark, the run
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: in the past in a variety of ways. They had
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty one thirteen personnel plays in twenty
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: twenty five. That was the third most in the NFL
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: last year. Could have been even more if Loveland didn't
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: get banged up during the year. What I really liked
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: about what the Bears are doing with their tight ends
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: and what Ben Johnson was doing. And I wanted to
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: show the film for this, but YouTube's been really wonky
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: lately with what they're flagging and penalizing and dinging when
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: it comes to showing film, so I decided not to
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: show it in this one.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: Apologies for that.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: But just the creativity and putting defenses into a bind
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: with the tight ends like Ben Johnson does. And so
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: you know, there's a hyper specific example in that playoff
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: game against the Green Bay Packers, Bear score a touchdown,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: it's twenty seven to twenty two, they are going for two.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: They come out in thirteen personnel. Actually they come out
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: with thirteen personnel and an extra offensive lineman on the field,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: so it's like a thirteen jumbo type of deal, like
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: a heavy, heavy type of deal. Because of that, the
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: Packers match with only one dB. It's safety Xavier McKinney.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: There's just one dB, and the Bears come out and
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: it's your typical like.
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: Madden goal line formation.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: That's the easiest way to put it, where you know
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: you've got your offensive line quarterback under center I formation,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: So it's Caleb Williams derham smythe the running back behind
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Smith I believe is Manangai, and then the tight ends
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: are all attached. Coleston Lovelin is next to the left tackle,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and then Cole Kamet is off of the extra offensive
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: lineman who's off of the right tackle, and they get
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: to the line of scrimmage. So everything looks we're gonna
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: run or could be playing action, right, but we're in
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: the standard goal line formation thirteen personnel plus the extra
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: offensive lineman. Packers match heavy with heavy there's only one
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: dB on the field. Bears get to the line before
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams even gets under center, kind of just gives
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: the signal. They back up and they explode the formation.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: It essentially turns into a three by one where that
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: extra offensive lineman is the in line tight end next
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: to the right tackle, but durham Smyth goes into the
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: slot to the right. Cole Comet gets split out wide
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: to the right and then into the boundary one on
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: one to the left of the formation. The offense is
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: left is Colston Loveland one on one with a depth
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: linebacker for the Green Bay Packers, and long story short,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Colston Loveland routes that dude up. It's kind of quote
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: unquote easy pitch and catch as much as it can
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: be from Williams to Loveland and the Bears convert the
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: two point conversion that I love that example one because
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: you come out in that grouping and again if Green
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Bay is seeing that. But again this is a hyper specific,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: a niche example, right two point conversion scenario. You're on
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: you're in the low low red zone, so they match
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: and go heavy with heavy, but you come out and
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: you're just creating that miss match example. And I think
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: the philosophy of that can be expanded upon, especially for
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: the Bills, especially if you've got tight ends like Kincaid
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: and Knox and even Hawes to a degree, anything where
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: you can get the defense to have to put more
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: heavy guys on the field right to try and match
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: that run game, and again just can get wonky because
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: how are team's going to see Dalton Kinkaid. Do they think, Okay,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Kincaid's out there, we need a linebacker. No, our Nickel
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: can run through Kincaid's face and beat him as a
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: run blocker. But if you get that opportunity to match
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Kinkaid outside in any type of space as a pass
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: catcher against any type of linebacker or safety, that's advantage
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: for the Bills. And then if you get more heavier guys,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: it's still Knox can still move a little bit, he
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: can run, he's athletic knocks against a true linebacker in space,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: it could be advantage Dawson Knox. It just forces all
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: these defenses to start to ask questions. Then there's another
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: example I put out on socials and for everything I'm
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: talking about it. It's on my Twitter, it's on Blue Sky,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: it's on all of it. There's an example against the
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings with cole Comet. You know another thirteen personnel example.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Cole Comet is kind of split off the formation. He's
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: you know, the quasi X that could be Dalton kin Kaid,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Colston Loveland is lined up in line. He gets put
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: in motion and is moving on the snap. That could
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: be your Dawson Knox. And then you got Durham Smythe
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: at full back again, that could be your Jackson Hawks.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: It ends up being a play action pass and the
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Bears complete and easy one to Colston Loveland. He comes
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: in motion, engages the edge for a little bit. Who
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: is Andrew Van Ginkel, then lets him through. You know,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: let's a little tight end delay or leak. He engages
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the edge for a little bit, sheds him, releases wide
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: open underneath, and it's like an easy nine yards on
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: first down.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: Again.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Ben Johnson great with tight end usage. He's somebody who
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: every offseason I study to see what he's doing with
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: tight ends. I did this several years with when he
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: was in Detroit, did it again here with the Bears.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: He's great with tight end usage. I looked to him
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: a lot for the creativity and the scheme ability with
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: the tight ends. And I also think the Bears tight ends,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: although it's not you know, like for like, especially because Loveland,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Comet and Smythe all have much more inline capability than.
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: Dalton Kincaid and I.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Think overall their versatility and viability is more complete than
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: the Bills three tight ends. But I do think there
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: is some comparability there with Loveland, Comet and smythe versus
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: you know, that trio of Kincaid, Knox and Hass So
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: you don't necessarily have, you know, the universal ability that
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: the Bears tight ends have, but I do think there
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: are some elements that you can pick and choose and
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: grab from other teams that I was studying as well.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: You know, the Cardinals. Terry McBride, one of the best
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: tight ends.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: In football, can live in line a little bit, but
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: is more of your space tight end. That guy who's
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: you know, essentially, you know, running routes from the slot,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: running routes outside. A guy that you're treating as an
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: actual pass catcher end mash a little bit, is a
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: bit physical. I don't think he's as inline capable as
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Coltston Loveland. Is. Cardinals were fourth in thirteen personnel plays
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five with one hundred and twenty three.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Another kind of team in that similar type of mold
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: with a you know, good young tight end, the Indianapolis Colts.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: They were fifth in thirteen personnel plays in twenty twenty
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: five with one hundred and eight. They have rookie tight
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: end Tyler Warren out of Penn State. So really kind
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: of studying those teams and you are seeing them get
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: into certain formations that is going that are going to
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: create a a an isolated mashup for Warren or for
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: McBride that I think you could do with Dalon kin
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: k if you are the Bills, some condensed stuff, but
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: some spread stuff as well and tying into that piece
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: in The Colts are a good example too, where you
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: know they're tight ends. It's Warren, Ogle Tree and Moali Cox.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Moali Cox is awesome. It's just kind of like a
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: football players, football player type of guy. But like I
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: think the Bills tight end room has more versatility and
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: universal capability than the Colts tight end room does. Maybe
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: even a little bit then the Cardinals as well, because
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: it's McBride, Elijah Higgins, and Tip Raymond. So you know,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Raymond is more of your Raymond is more of your
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: Hawes type of guy. Higgins is more of the knocks.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: But I think Knox is a better blocker than he is.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: And then you've got kinkaid is the McBride, but I
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: think McBride is a better blocker than kinkaid is from
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: an inline perspective, although both are lean more heavily towards
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: the pass catching aspect. But you're just seeing let's go thirteen,
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: but some more spread elements. Let's go thirteen, but let's
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: get Trey McBride in the slot next door wide receiver,
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Trey McBride split out wide, similar with the Colts. Let's
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: go thirteen, but let's get Tyler Warren out into space
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: and what we can do with him and kind of
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: move him around and take advantage of his skill set.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: And I think the Bills can dip into those packages,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: into those designs, kind of work through some of that
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: as well. So again just leaning into the tight ends.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: I know so much of the conversation has been about
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: the wide receivers this year, and Josh Palmer.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: Is still kind of hurt a little bit.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe they go on and they get DJ Moore, they
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: draft Skyler Bell, what's going on with Keon Coleman so
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: much as the wide receivers. And I don't think the
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: wide receivers are gonna go away. I still think eleven
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: personnel is going to be the dominant personnel grouping for
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: the Bills, But I think their most effective personnel grouping
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: in terms of the run in the past, being able
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: to dictate the defenses and putting defenses in hell. I
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: do think it is the heavier personnel groupings. And without
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: having Regie Gilliam those heavier personnel groupings this year, instead
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: of having some twelve and some twenty one and some
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: twenty two and some thirteen, you're gonna have much more
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: twelve and thirteen if you are the Buffalo Bills this year.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: Now tying that piece into the expectation for the Buffalo
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Bills in twenty twenty six, again, I wanted to lead
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: off with the thirteen personnel piece because you know, that's
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: the trendy group to highlight league wide, and because the
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Bills are so good at it in an underrated way.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think a lot of people really realize how
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: much how the Bills were out of thirteen personnel in
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: terms of the run and the pass last year.
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: So much of the thirteen personnel.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Conversation is the Rams McVeigh and their tight ends and
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: the Bills again much larger sample size.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: What sixty.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: We go back to my note sixty four plays from
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: thirteen personnel for the Bills versus four hundred and ten
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: for the Rams, so much different sample size, but I
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: wanted to leave with a thirteen personnel piece. But now
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Bills personnel usage overall
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five and then tie end of.
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: The expectations for twenty twenty six.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: So we talked about some of the heavier stuff, but
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: just to put everything kind of in totality, their biggest
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: five personnel groups eleven personnel sixty one point three percent.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: That was thirteenth, and then I'll repeat the heavy ones again.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Twenty two personnel, which was twelve point seven percent. That
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: was the most twenty two personnel usage from a rate
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: perspective in the league last year. Twelve personnel, which we're
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: going to talk about in a bit, that eleven point
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: one percent usage rate. That was twenty seventh, so near
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: bottom of the league. Twenty one personnel again eight point
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: nine percent that is tenth, and thirteen personnel again five
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: percent that was seventeenth. As I mentioned earlier, regig Gillium
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: two hundred fifty snaps in twenty twenty five got to
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: replace those snaps. Could be with a true fullback and
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: or with more tight end usage. And you know, it
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: could just be, hey, we're not gonna go twenty one
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: or twenty two as much. We're gonna go more traditional
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: tight end stuff. Or it could be we're gonna use
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: Jackson Hawes as in more of that full back role
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: in addition to doing some other things that he does
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: as a tight end. So either way, twenty one and
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: twenty two personnel rates I think are both likely to
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: go down, either schematically and or in terms of how
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: they're classified, because even if Hawes is doing regigillium stuff
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: as like a traditional full back role, it's gonna count
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: as a tight end because he's not gonna be listed
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: as a full back. I also expect eleven personnel to
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: go up to some degree. I don't think they'll be
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: a lead leaguer, league leaguer, a league leader, but I
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: expect them to be around or in, you know, the
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: top ten. Again for reference, in twenty twenty five, again
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: they were sixty one point three percent eleven personnel usag rate,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: which was thirteenth. I think it'll stay around there. I
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: could see it bumping maybe like sixty three percent, maybe
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: sixty four. It's really going to depend on how much
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: the wide receiver room can stabilize. But I expect all
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: the personnel groupings because twenty two and twenty one are
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: going to drop without Gilliam, I expect all the other
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: ones to be raised in general. And eleven why more
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: wide receivers on the field. It's really going to depend
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: on what is DJ Moore, How healthy is Josh Palmer.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: What kind of jump does Kean Coleman show, or kind
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: of stability or upward trajectory, what does scather Bell look like.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: It's going to depend on those variables at wide receiver
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: being answered. Twelve Personnel, like I mentioned earlier, is the
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: interesting one. So Dalan Kinkaid's injury talked about it earlier.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: That impacted all of their personnel usage rate's across the
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: board right, obviously the tight end ones, but just in general,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: how they designed the offense, the weekly game planning, everything right.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Kinkaid's injury in twenty twenty five impacted all of that,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: either in games that he missed or in the games
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: that he played. He was kind of on some pitch counts,
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: couldn't really go full tilt, but even with him being hurt,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: I guess for me at least, you know, you would
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: think like, kind of giving all the struggles and injuries
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: at wide receiver, even with kin K being banged up,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: given how inconsistent they were a wide receiver, you would
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: think like, okay, twelve personnel was probably super high, like
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: they probably lived in twelve personnel, and granted it was
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: eleven point one percent. And granted again we talked about
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: their personnel diversification, but they were only twenty seventh in
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: twelve personnel usage rate last year, So I think that
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: one will take a jump this year. Again, I expect
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the biggest jumps to come in twelve and thirteen personnel
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: and then a little bit in eleven. But twelve is
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: going to bump up, thirteen is going to bump up
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: with eleven personnel as well. What's interesting is what helped
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: the bills in eleven personnel last year was Tyrrel. Shavers
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: talked about him a little bit earlier, but him being
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: able to block as well as he did. Again, if
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: they were in eleven, it was kind of like them
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: being in eleven point five personnel were eleven and a
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: half and you know, if you want some stats with it,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: the Bills, they led the league in e PA per
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: rush out of eleven personnel at zero point one point eight.
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: And I'm not saying that's all because of Tyrol Shavers, but.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Shaver's ability as a blocker, Khalil Shakir's ability as a blocker,
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: both those guys being able to fit an insert on duo,
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: you know, be able to work on the backside of runs.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: When the Bills would show that same kind of duo
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: look but end up going with mid zone week, it
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: just made things really effective for them. Also, in case
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: you want to know, out of eleven personnel astue, the
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Bills were eighth in EPA per pass at zero point
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: one zero, so top ten in both first and EPA
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: per rush eighth and e p A per pass, both
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: of those out of eleven personnel, but their you know,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: EPA per rush was better than their EPA.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: Per pass Tyrol Shavers.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: We expect, I expect, I would just I should say,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: at least you know that he's out likely for the
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: entire season, or at the very least a significant chunk
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: of this season, someone's going to need to step up
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: to fill his blocking role. It could be Kean Coleman,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: it could be another wide receiver, but you know, within that,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: I expect the twelve personnel rate to go up regardless.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: But if the wide.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Receiver room doesn't stabilize in both the pass and the run,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: I think that's an aspect that is going to be
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: overlooked when it comes to the wide receiver room, like
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: the run blocking capability and who fills the tyrol.
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: Shaver's role as run blocker.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: If the wide receiver room doesn't stabilize as bill as
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: the Bills and Bills fans hope or expected to in
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: both the pass and the run, I think twelve personnel
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: will likely go up even more so. I think we're
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: going to see more tight end usage and sets this year,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: more twelve personnel, more thirteen personnel, a little bit more eleven,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: and then how much twelve, thirteen and eleven we see
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: will be dependent on Dunkin Kaid's health, and then the
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: stabilization that we see or don't see in the wide
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: receiver room. Again, all three of those we're going to
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: jump up in some capacity anyway, because you don't have
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Reggie Gilliam, your two running back sets or your two
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: back sets are likely to go down anyway. But with
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: where the league is moving, and again this idea where
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: you are trying to dictate two defense, we're still in
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: this part of the cycle of the pendulum swinging and
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: defense is trying to take that back a little bit
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: and you're starting to see teams. Okay, can we go
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: more big nickel? Can our nickel be more of a
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: third safety. You're more of a hybrid player, so that
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: way we don't have to we can't be dictated to
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: as much.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: We're more fluid.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, you want to come out in eleven, we can
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: stay in big nickel. Oh you want to come out
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: in twelve, we can stay in big nickel. You want
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: to come out in thirteen, maybe we got to bring
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: another body. But depending on what our safeties look like,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: plus that big nickel, we might be able to stay
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: in that as well. If we got some dudes who
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: can come downhill, fit the run and bang. And that
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: also ties into what kind of twelve and personnel they're
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: twelve and thirteen personnel do you have? Do you are
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: two of your tight ends, guys like Mikeasicki, who aren't
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: gonna block in any way? Shape or form or can't
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: really and so okay, you're going in twelve or thirteen,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: but he can't block or he's not gonna to be
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: a blocker, so we know we can kind of remove
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: him from the equation. He's not going to be a
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: math changer in that regard. It's a really fun conversation
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: to start to dive into. And when you look at
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of the best offensive minds again Ben Johnson,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Sean McVay, their thirteen personnel usage, how they weaponize their
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: tight ends. Again, the Colts offense was phenomenal last year,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: sincerely until Daniel Jones went down, and what Shane Stichen
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: was doing and them leaning into thirteen a bit. Also
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: have a very young, dynamic tight end and Tyler Warren
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: how they weaponized him. The Cardinals, you have one of
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: the best weapons in all the football and Trey McBride
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: what they leaned into. I think you look at the
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: teams around the league who are either very good from
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: an offensive standpoint, where either very good schematically or structurally,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: who have good offensive minds, who used and or who
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: used their tight ends well, and or who have good
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: young tight ends, dynamic tight ends. What are they doing
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: how can you dip into that a little bit? And
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: so I think a lot of that is a league.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: I also think the Bills are built for that league trend,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: given how their tight end room is made, given the
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: success of the run game, and just the conflict they
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: can put defenses into, which isn't anything new at this point,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: right the Bills come out in twelve or thirteen. You
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: have to account for the run game in a variety
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: of ways. But if you can stay in that personnel
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: grouping and one minute be condensed and run through someone's
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: face and then go stay in that same grouping and
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: come out of the huddle, and now you're in three
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: x two gun empty, what do you do or you're
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: in a three by one?
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: What do you do?
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: How do you match that? As a defense? You can
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: go spread and throw it. If you're the Bills, you
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: can go spread and run it. You can go condensed
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: and throw it. You can go condensed is run it also,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: maybe you know, going with thirteen personnel and going empty
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: and going more spread, maybe taps into James Cook as
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: a pass catcher a little bit more. Maybe we get
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: to see some of the Pete Carmichael Alvin Kamara mark
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: ingram stuff from his time in the Saints.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: There when Joe Brady was there.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Maybe we dip into that a little bit, create some space,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: spread some teams out. I think that'll start to happen
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: in general now is offensive have gone more condensed and
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: start defenses starting to bring everything in. Eventually offenses at
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: some point are going to start to spread things out again.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: And I think this could be kind of some sprinklings
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: and some inklings that we're getting towards that where you're
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: not necessarily spreading out and going with all wide receivers.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: We're not going to take eleven or ten personnel where
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: it's mainly wide receiver based, but we can go spread
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: and do it out of twelve and do it out
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: of thirteen so we have the right tight ends. And
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: then again all this time into something we've talked about
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: a bunch of this offseason, Dalon Kincaid. How viable is
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: he as a blocker or not? What can that do?
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: How does that hurt you, what does that hinder you
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: from doing? How does that tie in the scheme structure,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: all those pieces and all of those elements. Yeah, I'm
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: excited to see what happens going forward, also excited as
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: always to talk about the best pizza in Buffalo, New York.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: One Pie Pizza.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: If you have not gotten yourself some one Pi pizza, sincerely,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: you are missing out. I don't say they're the best
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: pizza and buff because they sponsor the show. They sponsor
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: the show because they are the best pizza in Buffalo,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: New York. Sweet sauce pie, great cup and char pepperoni,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: a great cheese, the sauce ratio.
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: They can do it, you know, underdone. They can do
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: it well done if you want.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: There's a variety of specialty pizzas and toppings options that
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: they'll sprinkle and set up evenly across the pizza. They
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: do a phenomenal breakfast pizza. They make their own homemade
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: blue cheese and it is immaculate. They do really good salads.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: They have a catering division called Elevated Catering of Buffalo.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: I've had them do several events for me over the
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: past several summers and everything comes out phenomenal. I always
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: get main dishes and stuff from the catering aspect, salads,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: some chicken and rice dishes, different kinds of mac and cheeses,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: and then I also get some pizza on top of it,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: because of course they are absolutely phenomenal. It's summertime. Get
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: yourself someone pie pizza. Enjoy your summer. Let your taste
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: buds enjoy summer by getting the best pizza in Buffalo,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: New York.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: Again.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: The online menu can be found in the episode shown
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: and so they're here on YouTube or whichever podcasting Apple
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: platform listening to this show on. So if you live
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: in Buffalo, get yourself some one Pi pizza. If you're
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: visiting here, get yourself some one pie pizza. Do not
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: miss out. I'm gonna throw up the banners as tootles, folks,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: because we are going to start to wind down and
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: say goodbye here on this episode of Disguised Coverage.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: I hope you folks enjoyed it. If you did, please, please, please,
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: and thank you.
• 41:18
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• 41:51
  Speaker 1: slot and going forward with more deep dives. Maybe we'll
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: get into some more film if I can see how
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: some things are being cleared and or not dinged or
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: flagged by YouTube, I know that would be a nice
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: helpful visual aid. But again, everything I talked about and
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: broke down from a film aspect here I have on
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: my socials that I've broken down in detail as well,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: so you can easily follow along.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm going to start to We've.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Set the groundwork for this offseason in previous episodes and
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: talked about a lot of things high level and kind
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: of picked up some breadcrumbs to to kind of see
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: where things are going to be. And now it's time
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: to start to build the house for the expectations of
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six and see who the bills are going
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: to be, what they're going to be both sides of
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: the ball, dipping into how they are built from a
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: roster construction standpoint, from a skill set and trade standpoint,
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: and a position group standpoint, but also how they tie
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: into the larger league meta and league trends, what's working
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: for teams on both sides of the ball. So this
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: episode really kind of kicks us off in that series.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: I hope you folks enjoyed it. I know our episodes
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: are usually very engagement heavy, so if you have a question, thought, comment, concern, anything,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: obviously I wasn't able to get to it live because
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: we weren't live in this episode, leave it here on YouTube.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: I will go back and answer anything and everything as
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: much as I can. Or again, get at me on
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Twitter at pro underscore underscore ant that's Pro two underscores
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: A n T. Or get at me on Blue Sky
• 43:08
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• 43:10
  Speaker 3: Just p R A n T.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Hope you folks enjoyed this episode. Hope you enjoy the
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: rest of your day week all of that stuff. And
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: I also hope you and your family and friends and
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: loved ones are all doing well and staying safe. Be
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: kind to one another, take care of one another. I
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: will see you when I see you. Godspeed, and as
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: always go Bills.