Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / FED Flips in 48 Hours 📈 + Stock Market News 29 April 2024

Transcript

FED Flips in 48 Hours 📈 + Stock Market News 29 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: drilling a great big hole for itself and a lot more stuff going on.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We need to talk about what the fed's about to do 48 hours till papa powell speaks and fed interest rate decisions and, um, no jackie today.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: It's just too hot.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: It's properly hot and steamy and sticky here today.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I love you for tuning in.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Let me just find the live chat as well.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Ask your questions, please.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: And why do I not see the live chat?
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: It's set to private.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to wait a second and let people in the room here, so we'll get cracking in.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Just a moment.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Let me just check what our little technical issues are here this morning.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: We are now live.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Let me check.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Yes, okay, brilliant, all right, I can see you pouring into the channel.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Here we are.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Sofi big hit to the downside.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Indeed, tesla is rallying.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Sofi is getting hit down 4.4% right now, and I'll explain to you why that's happening.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: This wasn't apparent from the headline numbers, but it's becoming apparent from the actual conference call.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Here we also want to talk about what Papa Powell is doing with interest rates and what we expect him to do in the middle of the week.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Head of there, everybody.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Good morning, good afternoon, happy Monday.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Get your audio checked before videos, says Pete.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: It's a touch loud, isn't it?
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: What's going on here today?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: What's going on here today?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I know what you're saying.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Normally NVIDIA takes care of these things, you see.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think I just moved the mic slightly further away because it seems to touch on the loud side.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Like for Tesla says Caelan.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: All right, yeah, tesla.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So let me show you what's going on over here.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: That's the long banner too.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Crikey, what is going on here today are doing a live trading training tuesday evening.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: If you haven't signed up for that yet, you are very welcome to.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Okay, first is first fed feds.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: What matters, bloomberg has a sort of ai tool that analyzes all the headlines uh, 60 000 of them and they track head speak, which, basically, are we going hawkish or dovish?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I never know how you say that.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: They're basically saying we're going to get more hawkish tone from Powell.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I think they're wrong.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I could be wrong, of course, but I think they're wrong.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Why do I think they're wrong?
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Well, because we did have a minor bank failure over the weekend.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Minor bank is as much a minor bank failure over the weekend.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: You know, minor bank, this is as much as a bank failure can be minor, cost the FDIC about $680 million and half the deposits are uninsured, and that should spook him to not get too carried away with being a hawk.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: So no, he's not going to say I'm going to cut rates five times, but I do think he's going to.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I think there'll be hints towards slowing down quantitative easing, which is money tightening, which is money shredding.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I think the money shredding will go fast and then rate cuts will come later in the year and Wall Street hasn't really priced that in right now.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Wall Street's saying we're basically going to get two price cuts for June and that's still not.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I think we could very much live with that, but I just don't think he's going to come out swinging because he knows if he does, he breaks more banks and that's not really what he wants to be doing.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: So I think overall we are going to get a somewhat restrained, happy pal.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: What's down this morning?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Google and Meta.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Well, what happened?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Google went up 10% on Friday, so this is a bit of profit taking and we might do a trade on that when it opens.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: I'll see where it opens.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Right now we're trading here at the bottom range of Friday's candle and we could set up a trade that would be, say, up here at 181, which would mean that we make money.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: You know the good stuff, the green stuff.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: We make money if the stock comes down.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: We make money if the stock goes sideways or if Google goes up 6.5%, or if Google goes up 6.5%.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: So we can be wrong by 6.5% and still make money.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: I'm tempted to do that.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I'll have a look at that when the market opens.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Anthony Noda never said AI, absolutely Big mistake, big mistake.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: So SoFi opened with sort of a bit of a hopeful here were earnings a bit of a spike up, bit of down, bit of a hopeful here were earnings bit of a spike up, bit of down, bit of up.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: We have about 2% and we've been as low as 720, but we're still 4.7% down now pre-market.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Why is that?
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Well, they did beat on every metric, but the profit beat seems to be largely a one-time event related to those convertible bond thingamajiggies that they issued.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So it's not like you know, it's not like real profit and we're going to test on a second.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: And the revenue growth guidance is better than expected, but it's still fairly light 17%, I think, revenue growth for 2024.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: It's a little on the light side, like what happened to 30, you know.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: But bear in mind, anthony Nojo is the sandbagger of all sandbaggers, so he might just be putting in really low expectations so he can beat them easily, but right now stocks not liking it, not liking it at all.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: So let's have a look where support sits.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: For so far, this is options watch IO, if you haven't seen this website before.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So for the week, support still sits at seven.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: See that big red bar here.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: That's support, and if we go out till yeah, it's still $7.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: So right now we're trading at $7.50.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: So I don't think, you know, I think we just looks like we're just going to continue sideways here.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: The retail army and so on is going to wake up in about 20 minutes.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: They might just read the headlines and go beat and they might buy.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So it could be reversed somewhat, but right now it's not looking brilliant.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Could we trade it?
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Let me see.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: 5% is not enough, is it?
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I have to go pretty close in for this to start to make money.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Can we do that?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Could do You're at 10%?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I have to go pretty close in for this to start to make money.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Can we do that?
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Could do you make 10%?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: It's not.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's really worth it.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's really worth it, so I'd say probably not, probably not to trade Tesla.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Double good news Elon's China trip seems to have turned out well.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Double good news Elon's China trip seems to have turned out well.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: He's got the amen for FSD.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: He's got a new lover in Baidu.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Baidu is the Google of China, if you didn't know, and they are the map in China.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: No other map works there.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Actually, I think Alibaba has a map, but basically Baidu is the map that everybody uses.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: So they're going to get access to mapping and navigation function provided by Baidu.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: That's what you need.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: And they've also been approved for data security, which means I guess they're probably storing all the data in China on Chinese servers and that kind of thing Same flip side of the coin that US regulators have.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: And so it's a very good thing, very, very good thing for Tesla.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Hence the fund in Tesla.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Look at that $190.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Whoa, that's really something.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Actually.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Let me open that over here.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Tesla, so we're trading here.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Where's the moving average line?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, that was here.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So in a day, in one foul sweep, we look to be gapping up to above the previous March gap down, which is pretty sweet.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So, yes, the party will keep going.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Next resistance level will then be 205, basically 200, 205.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: We go out a little bit, yeah, 200 here.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: That will be a little bit resistance there.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Big move, big move, that is, and it's just yeah, china is going to be their biggest market, right?
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: So therefore, this is a good sign.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: It's a very, very good sign for Tesla's future.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: What do you think about PayPal earnings?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: I'm cautiously optimistic.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: It's a good phrase, isn't it?
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: It means I've got the faintest idea.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: No, I just I don't have high hopes because I still think it's too early for management to really like hit us over the head.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Really, what they can do is do an Elon and tell a good story, and if they do that, that'll be helpful.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Or they give us a bit of insight into the app improvements, maybe some insight into ad revenue and stuff like that.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: That's really what we want to see.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, the market's going to judge PayPal by margins and guidance on margins improvement.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: That's really what it's all about.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I am long-term bullish PayPal.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: I keep saying that.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: So I think there is a good chance that it'll be a catalyst of sorts, but proof will be in the pudding, so I don't have like massive expectations here, I just have like limited expectations.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Really, I'm late, starting at the beginning.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: So okay, you can see me joining this call when I was on my own because we forgot to put this live, which isn't brilliant really.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: You talked about SoFi yet Jay, yeah, and I said I will never mention the stock again.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: No, numbers were good, but A guidance is a little on the.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: It's not soft, it's still beating, but it's light and the reason for the profit beat is a one-time event, so not looking quite as glorious as it once was.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I have quite a lot of SoFi crew on Twitter, so the look of anybody else puts out something on SoFi Not listening to the call.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: But apparently they said something the street didn't like.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, amit says it's the most uninspiring call.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: How can these guys sound this bored after a triple beat?
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: It's a problem.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: You need to be like.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: You know I was going to say coked up for the call.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I meant, of course, on Coca-Cola.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: You know you need to have some energy on those.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Deutsche says.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Deutsche says given our outlook on lending, there's no reason to change outlook on our business.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Our decision wasn't driven by capital.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: We had excess capital, so they didn't deny raising new capital.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, all right.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's not great.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: So it seems the call isn't super.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Normally Noto is a pro at this yeah, so we have to kind of analyze that in detail.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I will do that.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I will do a read-through of the call afterwards.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: You know, not everything's bad.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: The market's looking pretty good.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Apple is up 2.6%, tesla is up 13%, amazon up 1.7%.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Google and Meta is just a little bit of profit taking after the bonanza from Friday, which you'd kind of expect.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: The market zigs and zags, but things looking pretty good.