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Powell Pullback Coming?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Todave Powell could be setting up for a pullback. Maybe
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: not a rate cut coming or is this a headfake?
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: You guys don't want to miss it. My name is
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Paul Barrew, Welcome back into the show. I want to
• 0:08
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• 0:24
  Speaker 1: It's going to help you guys get moving as the
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: markets are in a little bit of a dip. I'll
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: get into the charts in a second, but I want
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: to go over to a few points here. Obviously, the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Jackson Hole event is where everybody is watching right now,
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  Speaker 1: everybody looking at kind of this balancing act that we're
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  Speaker 1: dealing with right now with chair Palell and what he
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  Speaker 1: is going to do. There are many factors that play
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  Speaker 1: into this. A couple of points I want to get to.
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  Speaker 1: Is this right here that we could see some unemployment
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  Speaker 1: continue to rise, and remember that unemployment. Jobs are often
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  Speaker 1: lagging data points, and this is what the FED is
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: unfortunately dealing with, is lagging data points. It's what's happened
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  Speaker 1: in the past versus what's going to happen in the future.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: This is a big issue right now. So this is now,
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  Speaker 1: This particular share has doubled over the last seven months.
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  Speaker 1: This of course indicates that we could see unemployments exceeding
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  Speaker 1: five percent. That would be significant if we saw a
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  Speaker 1: five percent unemployment, and it would be an immediate catalyst.
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  Speaker 1: But again, by that time, it would be too late
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  Speaker 1: for a rate cut because at that point we are
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  Speaker 1: dealing with major job loss, major market downturn, and also
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: a big issue on small business if we saw those
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  Speaker 1: kind of numbers. Now, the Fed of course is looking
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  Speaker 1: at it right now because some people are pointing at
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  Speaker 1: it and saying, hey, maybe he's not going to go
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  Speaker 1: dubvish in Jackson holl And if he does not, that
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  Speaker 1: could be a problem for Wall Street. In fact, it
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  Speaker 1: could wreck the markets going forward, especially if people are saying, well,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: you know, we've started to see performance coming out of
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  Speaker 1: Wall Street with a lot of earnings over the last
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  Speaker 1: couple of weeks, a lot of the restaurant chains, a
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  Speaker 1: lot of the retailers starting to play into it. The
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  Speaker 1: big one though to watch, of course is Walmart. They,
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  Speaker 1: of course, along with Loew's, will be reporting this week.
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  Speaker 1: In fact, right before I think Palell's speech. A couple
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  Speaker 1: of points you got to look at is that they're
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  Speaker 1: set to do the report. The point is is that
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  Speaker 1: this is all performance of what they have done over
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  Speaker 1: the past quarter. What you've got to pay attention to
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  Speaker 1: is how do they look forward? And this is a
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  Speaker 1: critical point right now if there is any concern in
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  Speaker 1: these executives, because listen, fed Rakecut has already the fed
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: holding has already been in place for quite some time.
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  Speaker 1: So the performance of these companies has been based on that.
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  Speaker 1: Once we start to see a outlook along with what
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  Speaker 1: we're seeing in the jobs market that says, hey, things
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  Speaker 1: are not so rosy. We actually see a problem here
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  Speaker 1: that I think is when Palell starts to pivot a
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  Speaker 1: little bit. I want to go to a clip real
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  Speaker 1: quick because this will get into what is going to
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  Speaker 1: be most important about Jackson Hall.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look, I mean, whether the flow through of
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  Speaker 2: inflation from tariffs's twenty forty sixty or eighty is really
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  Speaker 2: beside the point. I mean, I do think there's going
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  Speaker 2: to be a point, maybe a point and a half
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  Speaker 2: bump in the CPI. It's going to be a one
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  Speaker 2: time but that doesn't mean to fetch a titan for that.
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  Speaker 2: You were talking about how important this meeting is on
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  Speaker 2: Jackson Hole. This is by far J. Powell's most important
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  Speaker 2: talk at Jackson Hole. And in my opinion, if he
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  Speaker 2: just says, oh, we're going to wait and see we
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  Speaker 2: have data on both sides, I think the market's going
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  Speaker 2: to take it very badly.
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  Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with that, but I will argue the
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  Speaker 1: point that hopefully Powell is looking at it. And this
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  Speaker 1: is the issue, as I've reiterated, is jobs and the
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  Speaker 1: forward looking statements from some of the big retailers because
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  Speaker 1: we're going into a holiday season. Likelihood is you're not
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  Speaker 1: going to recover from that if we do see some
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  Speaker 1: more hawkish opinions right now. If you look at the
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  Speaker 1: decision for September, it's still a quarter point, holding it
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  Speaker 1: around seventy two percent, but it is down from what
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  Speaker 1: we were at just here recently on the quarter point,
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  Speaker 1: and that is let me kind of zoom in on
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  Speaker 1: that for you guys at eighty percent, now we're hovering
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  Speaker 1: right around seventy one percent. This over on poly market
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  Speaker 1: in terms of a potential rate cut in September, and
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  Speaker 1: if we get one quarter point in September, likelihood is
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  Speaker 1: I think that starts to create a domino effect over
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  Speaker 1: the next few FED meetings, which will mean additional rate cuts.
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  Speaker 1: I want to go to another clip real quick because
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  Speaker 1: this will get into expectations and what to look for
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  Speaker 1: as we go into the SOUL conference. Take a look to.
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  Speaker 3: Your point, when you look at the FED funds futures,
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  Speaker 3: we're pricing in about an eighty five percent chance of
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  Speaker 3: a FED rate cut in September. So the market wants
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  Speaker 3: to see a little bit of an inclination. Listen. I
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  Speaker 3: think he's still going to to kind of whole thing
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  Speaker 3: Someway type because we do have two inflation reports and
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  Speaker 3: probably the most important point in my mind is the
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  Speaker 3: September fifth employment report to see if the revisions that
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  Speaker 3: we saw were maybe somewhat overdone. But to your point,
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  Speaker 3: I think, you know, expectations are somewhat high and you
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  Speaker 3: could get a little bit of a setback, but all
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  Speaker 3: in all, I don't think that's the disrupt the underlying
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  Speaker 3: trend for the market, which is still higher. What I
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  Speaker 3: think could happen is really what you're seeing in like
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  Speaker 3: the small caps, the home builders. They're really banking on
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  Speaker 3: that cut. So that's where I think you'll see more
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  Speaker 3: of the action.
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  Speaker 4: So if he were to kind of indicate that there
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  Speaker 4: are a fifty basis point cut in September is off
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  Speaker 4: the table, maybe something like twenty five, and then reserve
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  Speaker 4: optionality for October and December, how do you think stocks
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  Speaker 4: would react to something like that.
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  Speaker 3: I think the market would would act well to that. Again,
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  Speaker 3: I don't know that he's going to come out and
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  Speaker 3: really say that we're going to get the cut. But
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  Speaker 3: again we're looking for a little bit more of a
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  Speaker 3: dubbish language, a little bit of a hint that the
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  Speaker 3: balance between inflation and employment has changed to let them
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  Speaker 3: at least have an insurance cut in September. And I
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  Speaker 3: think if if he does do that, then maybe you'll
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  Speaker 3: see a little more of this rotation that we've seen
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  Speaker 3: the last few weeks.
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  Speaker 1: I'll continue, all right, So there's there's still a lot
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  Speaker 1: of bullishness in the market. Blackrock came out and said
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  Speaker 1: we think it's the best environment ever. Look at what
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  Speaker 1: they had to.
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  Speaker 5: Say, because and by the way, it doesn't mean necessarily
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: everything's going up, But there's a couple of things a
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  Speaker 5: play that are pretty extraordinary. First of all, as you
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  Speaker 5: take the equity side, for the technicals and equities are crazy.
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  Speaker 5: You know, we've talked about it before. Mount of cash
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  Speaker 5: on the sideline, the amount of buybacks relative the IPO calendar,
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  Speaker 5: i e. The demand versus supply is pretty extraordinary. And
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  Speaker 5: these companies, you know we've talked about on the show,
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  Speaker 5: the multiple is not that attractive. These companies are thrown
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  Speaker 5: off these earning the earnings growth. So I looked at
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  Speaker 5: twenty twenty four. If you strip out Tesla for obvious reasons,
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  Speaker 5: max seven year on year growth is like fifty four percent.
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  Speaker 5: You get through multiple pretty quickly when you're growing that fast.
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  Speaker 5: Then you take the other side of it is you've
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  Speaker 5: got an income and fixed income, you're getting yield levels.
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  Speaker 5: So I think the fact can cut rates. But for
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  Speaker 5: until then you got yield levels. You can create portfolio
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  Speaker 5: six and a half seven percent yield. That's pretty good.
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  Speaker 4: And the Fed's going to cut in September listen.
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  Speaker 5: I think they can cut, you know, I think it's
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  Speaker 5: almost a given that they cut. And you know, particularly
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  Speaker 5: if you've got a payroll report that shows what is
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  Speaker 5: heretofore happened. You're seeing some sogginess around job hires, around
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  Speaker 5: job openings that I think the Fed's got. You've got
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  Speaker 5: more slack coming into the labor market. But boy, you
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  Speaker 5: see the where the technicals are. Where the amount of
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  Speaker 5: cash we were looking at it, amount of money that's
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  Speaker 5: going into money market funds, including last week, is extraordinary.
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  Speaker 5: Some of that is going to move in equities and
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  Speaker 5: other fixed income and other as.
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  Speaker 1: We have all right, so you can see right now
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  Speaker 1: Wall Street very very bullish, and there are some other
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  Speaker 1: things in the market that may potentially continue to push
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  Speaker 1: this way. One of course, is what's happening in Ukraine.
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  Speaker 1: And President Trump issues a statement right now, just hours
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  Speaker 1: before this He's basically set to meet with the Zelenski
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: over there, and it looks like there's some sort of
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: potential agreement coming, even though there is a lot of
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: pushback from Selensky on yielding some land and yielding some territory.
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  Speaker 1: But I think this is something that possibly could get
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  Speaker 1: into some positive elements. I know, when they came out
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  Speaker 1: of the Alaska meeting with Putin, the big issue was
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  Speaker 1: that they got into Article five quite a bit in
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  Speaker 1: the sense that they were securing NATO. And also that
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  Speaker 1: is a very positive thing for the EU, which could
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  Speaker 1: also play into these negotiations to hopefully get to peace
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: other things that we're dealing with right now. Speculators have
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  Speaker 1: now built the largest leveraged ether short position in history.
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  Speaker 1: This could backfire heavily if eth starts to turn. Now,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: there are other things that are happening in the market
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  Speaker 1: that may indicate Ethereum could get a spin here and
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: there are some things that I think you need to
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  Speaker 1: pay attention to. One of the reasons if you look
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: at Japan approving their first yen peg stable coin, this
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: is going to be it's called JPYC. This is going
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: to be launching on both Avalanche, Polygon and also ethereum.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: That again more push to ethereum. And you've got, of course,
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  Speaker 1: the Trump's out there buying the dips. And this is
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Eric Trump going in and I'll show you something that's
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: kind of interesting around that. This is Tom Lee saying
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  Speaker 1: we think we still see a fifteen thousand dollars ETH
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: by December. Now, this is the number one investor on
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Wall Street right now. His capacity for and his ability
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: to call what happened with bitcoin during a time when
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of people were saying Bitcoin was not the game,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: and he was able to perform on that is pretty significant.
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  Speaker 1: The fact that he's going with ethereum in such a
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: strong asset play. Now, granted, he's got a lot of
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: dogs in the hunt there in the sense of BM
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: and R, which is an ETH treasury company. But the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: other thing that you got to look at is Trump's
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: ethereum exposure continuing to rise. His crypto portfolio now ninety
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: two percent based on ETH. So what does Trump know?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: What is the digital asset arm of the Trump nation
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: know around ethereum? And how is this going to play out?
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  Speaker 1: If you look at the charts real quick, Bitcoin sliding
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  Speaker 1: off that high right there at around one twenty three
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  Speaker 1: has retraced back down here to as low as one
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  Speaker 1: fourteen negative sentiment right now. Going in general, the ethereum
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  Speaker 1: kind of in the same position, but not falling back
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: quite as much. And what's interesting about ETH is that
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: we're starting to see a little bit of positive sentiment brewing.
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  Speaker 1: So that's something that I'm watching right now. Could this
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: spin around and see ethereum start to trace back above
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: the forty four hundred dollars mark. We're gonna be watching
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: very closely. We'll also come to you guys with the
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Powell event later this week. Make sure if you're not
• 10:34
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• 10:35
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• 10:40
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• 10:46
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