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SuperData's Van Dreunen on Nintendo: Stick to Content (Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Business flash. You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hay
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  Speaker 1: and Pim Fox on Bluebird Radio Nintendo shares plunging today
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  Speaker 1: by the most since after the company said late Friday
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  Speaker 1: that the financial benefits from the worldwide hit Pokemon Go
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  Speaker 1: will be limited. And of course this correction comes after
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  Speaker 1: Pokemon goes released almost doubled Nintendo's stock through Friday's Clothes.
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  Speaker 1: Joining us now is Yost von Joyning. He is CEO
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  Speaker 1: of Super Data Research, to talk about what this means
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  Speaker 1: for Nintendo and more broadly, what Pokemon means for the
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  Speaker 1: gaming industry. Yo, welcome to the show. Thanks for having
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  Speaker 1: me so U. They put out the news, they put
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  Speaker 1: it out ahead of their earnings report. Is this a
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  Speaker 1: one day wonder? This sell off? What does this mean
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  Speaker 1: over the overtime? So the I think it's a sort
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  Speaker 1: of a damage control for a mistake that was not there,
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  Speaker 1: not there. I think that the investor community has been
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  Speaker 1: very excited to see Nintendo sort of move into mobile games,
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  Speaker 1: which is everything that alludes to, but it's not going
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  Speaker 1: to be that quickly for them, So it's a correction.
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  Speaker 1: If nothing else. That is that is of all times,
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  Speaker 1: mobile gaming in general has become this big market that
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  Speaker 1: everybody has to respond to, and Pokemon Go is that
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  Speaker 1: sort of obvious answer. At the same time, you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's not going to be that easy even for Nintendo
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  Speaker 1: to pull that off. Can you give us an idea
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  Speaker 1: of how much Pokemon Go is making per day? Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: so it's uh, in terms of install and earnings, we're
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  Speaker 1: already registering a decline. Uh. Then we were noticing a
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  Speaker 1: clear peak after last week. And so lifetime earnings across
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  Speaker 1: platform so far in our end are about seventy five
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  Speaker 1: million dollars. And then if you add that all up
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  Speaker 1: and sort of running through the numbers, you know, after
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  Speaker 1: platform fees for Apple after you know, and then it
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  Speaker 1: really gets its share of what it owns of the
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  Speaker 1: Pokemon company, you know, not much left and that certainly
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  Speaker 1: won't really move the needle for a company that big. Well, uh,
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  Speaker 1: what will move the needle then? For a company is big,
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  Speaker 1: it is, It is big. It is solid. But the
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  Speaker 1: growth of the gaming industry, as you have pointed out
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  Speaker 1: in a recent article, has has seemed to slown a bit.
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  Speaker 1: It's in some areas it's better than others as usual,
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  Speaker 1: So the game's industry is a little bit of a
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  Speaker 1: mosaic of different pockets of growth. Right where we see,
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  Speaker 1: for instance, the councile market doing pretty well, the PC
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  Speaker 1: market is a little bit more flat, and then the
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  Speaker 1: mobile market has been upuntil at least this year, been
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  Speaker 1: delivering double digit year for year growth. So that's all
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  Speaker 1: very good and great, right, So the question is, in general,
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  Speaker 1: how are these legacy companies, these big pump companies like Activision,
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  Speaker 1: Electronic Arts, and also hardware providers and platforms like Nintendo.
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  Speaker 1: How are they adjusting to this new market. So the
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  Speaker 1: hard part for them is to kind of figure out,
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  Speaker 1: like what do we do? Do we become you know,
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  Speaker 1: do we go after the mobile hardware bit where we've
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  Speaker 1: done really well traditionally by vertically integrating where we have
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  Speaker 1: strong third party relationships and then build our platform for there.
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  Speaker 1: Or do we say, well, we're gonna go sort of
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  Speaker 1: the Sega route where we take our franchises and our
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  Speaker 1: i p our intellectual property and then try to license
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  Speaker 1: it out to others. And so this is a really
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  Speaker 1: interesting sort of intersection for them to kind of go.
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  Speaker 1: The way that they could resolve this is to stay
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  Speaker 1: true to their own which is to make solid games,
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  Speaker 1: and then from there I think that they can command
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  Speaker 1: a lot of control. But what ultimately sells a lot
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  Speaker 1: of this stuff is really strong content, and that's what
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  Speaker 1: Nintendo itself. You know, what does super data research do
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  Speaker 1: and what can it tell us about artificial or virtual reality?
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  Speaker 1: That's a good question. So the what we do is
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  Speaker 1: we are a market researcher that looks at what we
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  Speaker 1: call personal media. UM. We collect spending data on forty
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  Speaker 1: eight million digital gamers for instance, months and months, and
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  Speaker 1: that gives us an insight into, you know, the sort
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  Speaker 1: of digital distribution markets that lives on the entertainment side.
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  Speaker 1: Entertainment in general has shifted away from a product based model,
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  Speaker 1: and so we service ponese both financial and publishing for instance,
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  Speaker 1: that focus on these markets. UM. And then when it
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  Speaker 1: comes to a R and VR, that's really the sort
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  Speaker 1: of next thing, right, So there's a lot of talk
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  Speaker 1: about how virtual reality is going to be the next
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  Speaker 1: platform after we've seen all these other ones come around. UM,
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  Speaker 1: We've to be very fair over the last year that
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  Speaker 1: we've been really covering this. It's the uh you know
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  Speaker 1: that down We have to cut our forecast down twice
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  Speaker 1: because there's a huge amount of noise as a usual
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  Speaker 1: amount of enthusiasm. Right, there's a sort of this expectation
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  Speaker 1: that VR will grow, that the oculus for Facebook for instance,
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  Speaker 1: will you know, so show us the same numbers as
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  Speaker 1: Mobile has for Apple. Um, that's not going to happen
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  Speaker 1: anytime soon. There's going to be three to five year
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  Speaker 1: period in which companies really sort out their third party relationships,
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  Speaker 1: where we have sort of some innovative content. You know,
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  Speaker 1: what's going to be the angry birds of VR for instance,
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  Speaker 1: Like all those questions still have to be answered on
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  Speaker 1: top of you know, it's it's hardware, so it has
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  Speaker 1: to be manufactured, it has to be you know, shipped
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  Speaker 1: for one in to the next and so on. Um.
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  Speaker 1: You know, for us, we see Sony Prince and do
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  Speaker 1: really well because it has the PlayStation v R which
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  Speaker 1: sort of seamss these clicks into its assistance install base.
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  Speaker 1: But some of the other experiments out there, like the
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  Speaker 1: HTC five and the Auction is riff. You know, those
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  Speaker 1: are some higher end experiences on the PC with a
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  Speaker 1: more narrow market. Right, It's a it's a bit more
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  Speaker 1: difficult and the actual technology is a little less successible.
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  Speaker 1: Just you know, you you do seemly quite fired up
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  Speaker 1: about this whole question of Pokemon Go and whether or
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  Speaker 1: not it really is authentically a are authentically uh you know,
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  Speaker 1: augmented reality, but you say it can be the gateway
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  Speaker 1: drug if people understand what it actually is. I want
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  Speaker 1: to broaden ou blends to people beyond gamers who follow
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  Speaker 1: all the stuff you follow. Who is it going to
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  Speaker 1: draw in? What do you have to do to get
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  Speaker 1: a broader universe now into this market so the sales
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  Speaker 1: can keep growing, so companies like Nintendo can boost their
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  Speaker 1: share price. Um so for a R to do well,
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  Speaker 1: we need you know, so if we're talking to about
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  Speaker 1: a new platform, we need a killer application, right and
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  Speaker 1: so this is where the equationman then Pokemon go so
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  Speaker 1: so obvious to many people saying, well here we are right.
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  Speaker 1: So here it is that we can now figure out
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  Speaker 1: a way to make obvious to a mainstream, a large
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  Speaker 1: mainstream audience, what it is that augmented reality actually can
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  Speaker 1: do for us. So the sort of silver lining for
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  Speaker 1: me is that over time, other companies will take this
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  Speaker 1: instance and say, you know what, we're going to build
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  Speaker 1: something in a artist just like it, because clearly there's
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  Speaker 1: demand for it. You've got to leave it there. Thank
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  Speaker 1: you very much, yost Van Dyinen. He is the chief
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  Speaker 1: executive of Super Data Research, telling us about a Nintendo
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  Speaker 1: the shares are down nearly eighteen. This is Bloomberg coming
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