Latest / UK Column Radio / Iran War, Taiwan's U Turn & De-Dollarization | Silk and Steel

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Iran War, Taiwan's U Turn & De-Dollarization | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

0:02
Speaker 1: Joining us today on Typology is a storyteller who bridges
0:07
Speaker 1: the gap between ancient history and modern geopolitics. He is
0:12
Speaker 1: the host of the Silken Steel podcast. Karsha, Welcome to Typology.
0:18
Speaker 2: Hi Angelica, thanks for inviting me. Allow me a chance
0:21
Speaker 2: to fix my hair. Okay now, no, I'm good, Let's talk.
0:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, Karl and I have known each other for a
0:29
Speaker 1: few years, back when I was still like the Taiwan's
0:35
Speaker 1: Boba liberal. Now with surprising me found ourselves agreeing on
0:41
Speaker 1: a lot of different topics, and it's been a delight
0:45
Speaker 1: to be on your podcast. And I have to say, Carl,
0:48
Speaker 1: there's nobody I'd rather be processing this moment with than you,
0:54
Speaker 1: because I feel like you have a lot of breath,
0:56
Speaker 1: you have a lot of knowledge, and you're pretty calm.
1:00
Speaker 1: And I have to say, I have to say this,
1:04
Speaker 1: This moment is giving me flashbacks to like twenty twenty,
1:08
Speaker 1: that moment where nobody knew what was going on and
1:12
Speaker 1: we only knew it was going to be a big deal.
1:15
Speaker 3: But the s hasn't hit the fan yet.
1:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, very close. We're getting very close. Like I was
1:23
Speaker 2: telling you earlier, we're at the frog boiling stage of
1:28
Speaker 2: the water just being lukewarm. But the water, the fire
1:32
Speaker 2: is still there. We know where we're headed, but it's
1:36
Speaker 2: a it's a disaster. And I can't believe, you know,
1:41
Speaker 2: I can't believe there's very little organized political opposition in
1:46
Speaker 2: the United States right now. But I because this could
1:50
Speaker 2: be even potentially be even worse than COVID. I mean
1:54
Speaker 2: COVID at that time. You know, a lot of the
1:57
Speaker 2: problems were self inflicted by governments. And and now we
2:03
Speaker 2: have a situation where there's no fuel. There's no fuel,
2:07
Speaker 2: and people are starting to wake up to how really
2:11
Speaker 2: important hydrocarbons are to our lives. You know, no no oil,
2:16
Speaker 2: no gas means no plastic. Uh no, no plastic means
2:21
Speaker 2: no And no fertilizers, no chemical fertilizer. That's a big
2:25
Speaker 2: one because right now it's a planting season. The farmers
2:28
Speaker 2: are ready their crops for the for this year, and
2:32
Speaker 2: if they don't have fertilizers, we're gonna have food shortages.
2:36
Speaker 2: Uh and and later later this year. That that's that's
2:39
Speaker 2: huge and and something you know, I see a lot
2:42
Speaker 2: of Americans say, oh, this doesn't affect us because we
2:45
Speaker 2: have plenty of oil, right like, like we are self sufficient. Uh,
2:52
Speaker 2: but I just look up. The United States actually depend
2:57
Speaker 2: heavily on India for generic drugs, and the main ingredients
3:04
Speaker 2: going to a lot of these generic drugs is the
3:07
Speaker 2: chemicals that extract it from you guessed it, Hija Garvin.
3:14
Speaker 2: So yeah, so this is this is pretty bad. I mean,
3:17
Speaker 2: I'm laughing right now because it's it's pretty bad. It's
3:21
Speaker 2: it's actually pretty serious. My laughing is my kind of
3:24
Speaker 2: self defense mechanism where the world gets too ridiculous. We're
3:28
Speaker 2: living in this tragic comic comedy hour. And I don't
3:34
Speaker 2: know how things are in Taiwan, how hard things in Taiwan.
3:37
Speaker 1: You live there, Yeah, I live here, and I feel
3:40
Speaker 1: like a lot of people are checked out. I feel
3:44
Speaker 1: like I don't see as much like Pan Green online celebration,
3:52
Speaker 1: like yeah, she better watch out because he's gonna be
3:57
Speaker 1: next Venezuela done Iran on it China next. You saw
4:04
Speaker 1: a little bit of that at the beginning of the conflict.
4:06
Speaker 1: And people go quiet really quickly. Sometimes they're defensive because
4:11
Speaker 1: Taiwan is primed to be concerned about energy, and of
4:15
Speaker 1: course energy is a huge problem because more than forty
4:18
Speaker 1: percent of our electricity generation comes from LNG and famously
4:22
Speaker 1: we only have eleven day supply of it on hand
4:25
Speaker 1: now in a way where we're going to be one
4:28
Speaker 1: of the last frogs to boil because we're also a
4:32
Speaker 1: wealthy country and our government is well primed to basically
4:38
Speaker 1: outbid all the poor countries on cargoes. So you're going
4:41
Speaker 1: to have really bad problems in Africa, the poorer South
4:46
Speaker 1: East Asia countries. You're going to have problems in Laos, Philippines, Thailand,
4:53
Speaker 1: and all that is going to happen before Taiwan even
4:56
Speaker 1: feels it. But eventually it's like every single gold country
5:00
Speaker 1: has a clock. And the thing that really concerns me
5:04
Speaker 1: about this misadventure is how many irreversible things are getting
5:10
Speaker 1: baked in the cake all the time, Like the strait
5:14
Speaker 1: of hormone situation. I just don't see that getting back
5:16
Speaker 1: to normal. But at least it's a straight right it
5:19
Speaker 1: can be reopened. But if the US does this, I
5:24
Speaker 1: don't know how far they're going to get with the.
5:25
Speaker 3: Boots on the ground.
5:26
Speaker 1: But if they do that and they end up causing
5:30
Speaker 1: the oil facilities on carg Island to be destroyed, we
5:34
Speaker 1: know pretty much at that point it's like used or
5:36
Speaker 1: lose it. The Iranians are going to attack the GCC
5:40
Speaker 1: countries oil facilities, and I don't think anybody really realize
5:46
Speaker 1: how badly this could spiral if those facilities are destroyed,
5:49
Speaker 1: because they took decades to build and it'll take decades
5:52
Speaker 1: to rebuild. So I feel like I'm freaking out a
5:55
Speaker 1: little bit.
5:56
Speaker 2: Maybe, I mean, I mean everybody should be, because even
6:01
Speaker 2: even if the Street of Hormos were to open today,
6:04
Speaker 2: you will take I SAW industry expert estimate it will
6:08
Speaker 2: take month up to six months to restore production to
6:12
Speaker 2: the pre war level because a lot of facility has
6:15
Speaker 2: already been hit. And and also the the insurance company
6:21
Speaker 2: need to to rework the Lloyd of London need to
6:24
Speaker 2: rework the insurance policies because right now a lot of
6:27
Speaker 2: the oil tankers are not willing to go that direction
6:31
Speaker 2: because and like all these shipping companies, why are we
6:35
Speaker 2: sending our tankers through through straight o Homus when we
6:39
Speaker 2: can send them to Africa, you know, to to to
6:42
Speaker 2: get the oil from there or to Brazil and then
6:46
Speaker 2: then ship it to to the country that desperately need them.
6:49
Speaker 2: Right now, you know, we don't need to risk our
6:51
Speaker 2: neck for this, and so there's gonna be a lot
6:55
Speaker 2: of un resolve issue. And and speaking of Taiwan, you
6:58
Speaker 2: are actually quite vindicated because you are a big advocate
7:03
Speaker 2: for nuclear energy in Taiwan, and Taiwan was one of
7:07
Speaker 2: the early adopter of nuclear energy. But there was a
7:10
Speaker 2: reversal which you were quite upset about because the current
7:14
Speaker 2: Taiwan government put a kabash on the nuclear power plan.
7:17
Speaker 2: Maybe you can tell us about that.
7:18
Speaker 1: Thank you, actually, thank you for bringing that up, because
7:24
Speaker 1: I have been trapped in a bit of a bitterness
7:28
Speaker 1: cycle because I feel like this restart that was announced
7:32
Speaker 1: by the government finally last week, it's so frustrating because
7:37
Speaker 1: it could have been done earlier.
7:39
Speaker 3: And it would have helped in this crisis.
7:42
Speaker 1: But of course it takes a while for nuclear power
7:44
Speaker 1: plants to get started, so if they come on two
7:46
Speaker 1: years later, that's not helping us now. But you know,
7:50
Speaker 1: I'm trying to have a good attitude about it, because
7:52
Speaker 1: at least we're not Germany, which has faced down two
7:58
Speaker 1: once in a lifetime energy crisis sees in a row
8:02
Speaker 1: and the industrialized and still stubbornly refused to go back
8:06
Speaker 1: to nuclear power but yes, I have been advocating for
8:10
Speaker 1: this nuclear power we start in Taiwan for a few
8:14
Speaker 1: years now, and I can't believe it's finally going to happen. Yes,
8:19
Speaker 1: Taiwan was a very early adopter in nuclear energy. By
8:23
Speaker 1: the mid eighties, we had almost fifty percent actually more
8:27
Speaker 1: than fifty nuclear energy, and that was the firm basis
8:33
Speaker 1: that gave us the economic takeoff later. And I'm really like,
8:40
Speaker 1: it's really impressive. You look at Taiwan back in the eighties,
8:44
Speaker 1: many people would have considered that a third world country.
8:48
Speaker 1: We did have manufacturing, but we didn't make chips. We
8:50
Speaker 1: made Barbie dolls. But from that vantage point in the eighties,
8:55
Speaker 1: we had the foresight to see ourselves making semiconductor, so
9:00
Speaker 1: we built that those nuclear power plants so that we happened.
9:03
Speaker 2: I remember I still remember in the early nineties when
9:07
Speaker 2: I first came to the United States, I think I
9:09
Speaker 2: watched either a TZ drama or or a movie starting
9:14
Speaker 2: George Clooney, and there was a scene when George Clooney
9:17
Speaker 2: was trying to open an umbrella and he was you
9:19
Speaker 2: wouldn't open and he said, he said, dismissively. Oh, made
9:23
Speaker 2: in Taiwan. Right, that was like early nineties.
9:27
Speaker 1: I've seen that clip actually believe it or not, made
9:31
Speaker 1: it to TV news in Taiwan when people are like
9:34
Speaker 1: what in Taiwan? But yeah, that was a perception back then,
9:39
Speaker 1: and you know what, it's not the perception now. But
9:44
Speaker 1: in a way, that was the best time of the
9:47
Speaker 1: Taiwanese economy, the nineties, where everything.
9:51
Speaker 3: Was growing really quickly.
9:53
Speaker 1: And since then, I don't I don't think real wages
9:55
Speaker 1: have made much of an improvement since then, which is
9:58
Speaker 1: which is totally pathetic.
10:00
Speaker 3: But here we are at least we were making chips.
10:04
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, Taiwan is a developed economy now, which means
10:08
Speaker 2: he has all the same problem that's all the Western
10:10
Speaker 2: economy faces, you know, economic stagnation, uh you know, youth,
10:15
Speaker 2: not much economic prospect for for the youth to look
10:19
Speaker 2: forward to high high housing prices. It's all part of
10:23
Speaker 2: the mix. And and plus even the same political problem.
10:28
Speaker 2: I mean, I think like like the same two party
10:31
Speaker 2: system on Taiwan, and that was you know, didn't really
10:36
Speaker 2: serve the people. I mean, I see a lot of
10:38
Speaker 2: similarity actually between Taiwan and the United States. Uh, you know,
10:42
Speaker 2: both economically and politically. The thing about the chip production.
10:49
Speaker 2: You know, one big concern is also Taiwan realies on
10:54
Speaker 2: helium from the Gulf, you know, I think, yeah, some
10:58
Speaker 2: seventy percent he uh that Taiwan needs is coming from
11:03
Speaker 2: the Golf region, and helium is used to make advance semiconductors.
11:09
Speaker 2: So you know, I was joking. Now, like Iranians actually
11:13
Speaker 2: started the Buttellarian chihad for for people who who read
11:17
Speaker 2: the book, do you you know that, I don't know
11:20
Speaker 2: if you read them. So the idea of that, but
11:23
Speaker 2: you know the movie right Doom, So supposedly before the
11:27
Speaker 2: movie took place, before the timeline of the movie took place,
11:31
Speaker 2: there was something called Btellarian Chihad. Is because the humanity
11:35
Speaker 2: rebelled against thinking machines, you know, essentially like AI robots
11:40
Speaker 2: and all that. And well guess what advanced chip is
11:45
Speaker 2: the building block of the AI revolution, right, I mean,
11:49
Speaker 2: you know, without chips from Taiwan, they're not gonna be
11:52
Speaker 2: able to continue to sustain the AI bubble. So that's
11:56
Speaker 2: why I was joking. Iranians started the Buttellarian Chihad. They're
11:59
Speaker 2: they're they're killing the thinking machine right now in the
12:02
Speaker 2: cradle before they enslave humanity.
12:06
Speaker 1: They're doing it in more ways than one, right, I
12:08
Speaker 1: wonder where the AI bubble will go without funding from
12:13
Speaker 1: the GCC, because that's where a lot of the capitol
12:17
Speaker 1: is coming from. So there's that multiple multiple ways in
12:22
Speaker 1: which this war was just an act of self harm
12:25
Speaker 1: on the part of the United States and harm for others.
12:28
Speaker 1: I'm like, it's really heart wrenching to see how the
12:33
Speaker 1: cruelty has spread. I feel like once Gaza happened and
12:41
Speaker 1: the reaction wasn't big enough from the world to stop
12:45
Speaker 1: it in a horrible way, it was almost like a
12:48
Speaker 1: validation and almost like a well, they went this.
12:51
Speaker 3: Far and nothing.
12:53
Speaker 1: Happened, so we can go free to go this far
12:57
Speaker 1: in so many different places. And yeah, I feel like
13:02
Speaker 1: Israel is seriously overplaying its hands and it's it's it's
13:08
Speaker 1: hard to say right now, but I think in the
13:10
Speaker 1: long run, what it's doing, it cannot be strategic, cannot
13:14
Speaker 1: be good for the viability of Israel in the long run.
13:17
Speaker 3: So I don't even understand why.
13:18
Speaker 1: It's like everybody is self harming, Like the United States
13:23
Speaker 1: is self harming, Israel, self harming Iranian. Iran is hurting
13:28
Speaker 1: itself and the surrounding countries because they don't have a choice.
13:32
Speaker 1: But with Israel and the United States, I just I
13:36
Speaker 1: don't think they have had a plan at least Americans
13:40
Speaker 1: certainly didn't have a plan beyond like Kildayatola dot dot
13:45
Speaker 1: dot regime change.
13:46
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I think, you know, I mean, it's
13:50
Speaker 2: pretty obvious right now they have no plan. Because United
13:54
Speaker 2: States that have withdrawn from their strategic oil reserve ever
13:59
Speaker 2: since Biden days, you know, nobody bothered to fill it
14:04
Speaker 2: back up. You know, back then they took oil from
14:07
Speaker 2: the strategic oil reserves. The goal was simple. They wanted
14:11
Speaker 2: to alleviate inflation pressures, you know, making sure people can
14:16
Speaker 2: still have reasonably priced gas, so they still you know,
14:20
Speaker 2: so the political party in power would still win elections.
14:24
Speaker 2: But when Donald Trump started this war, as you mentioned,
14:27
Speaker 2: this war is an existential fight for the Iranians, they're
14:31
Speaker 2: fighting for survival. But this is a war of choice
14:34
Speaker 2: for United States and Israel. They chose to start this war.
14:38
Speaker 2: But yet Trump did not even bother to fill up
14:43
Speaker 2: the strategic oil reserve of the United States before he started.
14:47
Speaker 2: Because I think the whole ven Isuelan operation really got
14:50
Speaker 2: to their head. They thought, oh, Okay, we did that
14:53
Speaker 2: in Venezuela. Let's do the replicate our success decapitation strike
14:57
Speaker 2: and then the Iranian government will fall in live and
15:00
Speaker 2: then we get control of the oil. We can control
15:03
Speaker 2: the world oil flow. So by the time Trump traveled
15:07
Speaker 2: to Beijing to Shijimpin, he will have Hi Jimpin buy
15:10
Speaker 2: the balls, you know, like I mean, this is literally
15:14
Speaker 2: what's been published by Hudson Institute, right, they say this
15:18
Speaker 2: is actually five D chess by Trump to control all
15:20
Speaker 2: this oil supply going to China.
15:23
Speaker 1: Uh.
15:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, they did not think. They did not plan. They
15:27
Speaker 2: did not plan what happens if Urana doesn't vote.
15:31
Speaker 3: And guess who's going to see She jin Ping before
15:34
Speaker 3: Donald Trump?
15:37
Speaker 2: No wait wait, wait, no way, no before before Donald
15:40
Speaker 2: Trump's trip.
15:42
Speaker 3: Well, okay, I'll tell us.
15:44
Speaker 2: About that for people who don't know that.
15:47
Speaker 1: I want to catch everybody up because the KMT chairwoman
15:52
Speaker 1: Jenny Wan has no announced that she wants to go
15:55
Speaker 1: to China and meet with Sitting King, And those announcements
16:01
Speaker 1: were so high profile and so frequent that I, you know,
16:06
Speaker 1: I kind of knew that it was going to happen,
16:09
Speaker 1: but I just saw the official confirmation on Chinese state
16:15
Speaker 1: media that she is indeed going to lead a group
16:20
Speaker 1: to China and meet with She.
16:23
Speaker 3: I think she herself will meet.
16:24
Speaker 1: With She, and it's it's like it's coming up, it's
16:29
Speaker 1: coming up next week. Basically, she's going April seventh, and
16:36
Speaker 1: now I'm just that's my conjecture. My conjecture is that
16:39
Speaker 1: she is going because sorry she she kept the announced.
16:45
Speaker 1: The announcement was kept until the last minute because there's
16:49
Speaker 1: just so many ways that this can be spun politically,
16:54
Speaker 1: and in a way it could be a politically damaging
16:59
Speaker 1: thing for the CAM if the DPP spins it right.
17:02
Speaker 1: There's also the possibility that I didn't think of until
17:05
Speaker 1: somebody reminded me, is that.
17:08
Speaker 3: The DPP could come up with an.
17:11
Speaker 1: Excuse like a BS national security excuse to prevent her
17:15
Speaker 1: from going. So I think they're thinking, let's just announce
17:19
Speaker 1: it really close to the time so that there's less
17:22
Speaker 1: of a chance for DPP countermeasures.
17:25
Speaker 3: But yeah, she's going. She's gonna be there in a week.
17:29
Speaker 2: That's huge. And also the fact that the mainland China
17:33
Speaker 2: side confirmed it and make it official, which by the way,
17:36
Speaker 2: I don't think China has actually confirmed the date of
17:39
Speaker 2: Trump visit because Trump said, Oh, We're gonna visit May,
17:44
Speaker 2: and I look at the official Chinese releases, there's like, oh,
17:48
Speaker 2: we're in the still in the consultation with American side
17:51
Speaker 2: on the working on the dates when Trump will visit.
17:55
Speaker 2: So otherwise, like the Trump trip, the whole Trump trip
17:59
Speaker 2: is still in flad. So so this when when when
18:02
Speaker 2: when China confms it, that means it's going to happen.
18:05
Speaker 2: And so this is actually pretty huge for our audience
18:08
Speaker 2: who may not know the difference between k m T
18:11
Speaker 2: and DPP.
18:13
Speaker 1: UH.
18:13
Speaker 2: DPP is a current ruling party for on Taiwan. So sorry,
18:17
Speaker 2: I always have to break down the basics for my
18:21
Speaker 2: audience because some of them do not know they're now
18:23
Speaker 2: it's a conversion in Taiwan politics and k m T
18:27
Speaker 2: is the main opposition party uh sometimes being accused of
18:31
Speaker 2: being quote unquote pro China party. But but but now
18:35
Speaker 2: there's a real I think the last time I had
18:38
Speaker 2: you on my show, we were talking about potential political
18:43
Speaker 2: uh tectonic plate shift on Taiwan that people are so
18:49
Speaker 2: sick and tired of DPP because they have been ruling
18:53
Speaker 2: for Taiwan for a long time and now there was
18:55
Speaker 2: a real chance for a k m T to stage
18:58
Speaker 2: your comeback, and now the new came to chairwoman, you know,
19:03
Speaker 2: who is very popular, is going to mainland China. This
19:07
Speaker 2: is a big This is big news. You know, I'm
19:10
Speaker 2: actually surprised we haven't get any kind of the coverage
19:13
Speaker 2: in the English language media. Well, I know all the
19:16
Speaker 2: eyes are in uh In Iran right now, but still
19:20
Speaker 2: you know, they often you still see articles about how
19:23
Speaker 2: Taiwan is the most dangerous place in the world, or
19:26
Speaker 2: like China, my plan and move on Taiwan taking this
19:31
Speaker 2: opportunity and all that, But they they don't seem to
19:34
Speaker 2: really interested to like what's actually going on in Taiwana
19:38
Speaker 2: like this, this is a big news.
19:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know what it would take to get
19:44
Speaker 1: it through the Western mind that attitudes have changed on
19:50
Speaker 1: the island with regards to the DVP, with regards to independence,
19:54
Speaker 1: and a lot of people have changed their minds on China.
19:58
Speaker 1: It's not just me, right, I think when I interact
20:01
Speaker 1: with people, a lot of people think, well, Angelica's gone crazy,
20:05
Speaker 1: or Angelica's now on the CCP payroll. They don't think,
20:09
Speaker 1: wait a minute, if somebody who was as pro DPP
20:14
Speaker 1: as Angelica is all of a sudden seeing of a
20:17
Speaker 1: different tune. She's not the only popcorn that popped in
20:21
Speaker 1: that pot, right, And yeah, there's a whole ecosystem of
20:26
Speaker 1: people who are on different points of the spectrum who
20:29
Speaker 1: have changed their minds on the cross straight issues. Just
20:34
Speaker 1: the fact that Johnny One can get elected as KMT
20:39
Speaker 1: chairwoman on a very pro China platform, and the fact
20:44
Speaker 1: that she's going to China to meet with c those
20:48
Speaker 1: are huge signals and things that we wouldn't have expected
20:51
Speaker 1: a year ago. Now, having said that, this is still
20:54
Speaker 1: a bold move and a risky move for her because
20:59
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people, even within her party
21:04
Speaker 1: are scared that this is a step too far electorally
21:08
Speaker 1: for the Taiwanese people. And the elections are coming up
21:12
Speaker 1: in November, so it's very disappointing to see. But there's
21:16
Speaker 1: actually something of a whisper campaign against her within the
21:21
Speaker 1: KMT and they're saying, basically, we're going to underperform in
21:28
Speaker 1: November's elections because gen d One is too pro China
21:33
Speaker 1: and going to China, etc.
21:35
Speaker 3: Et cetera.
21:36
Speaker 1: And when we underperform in November's elections, she must pay
21:40
Speaker 1: the price by stepping down.
21:42
Speaker 3: And it's just like, what the what It's March, what
21:45
Speaker 3: are they doing?
21:47
Speaker 2: You know what this reminds me of. This reminds me
21:50
Speaker 2: of the Democratic establishment in the United States, you know,
21:53
Speaker 2: back when they said Bernie Sander is too radical, you know,
21:57
Speaker 2: like we got to have a more acceptable, most centrist
22:00
Speaker 2: candidate like Hillary Clinton, despite that she was not a
22:06
Speaker 2: good candidate at all. And then uh, you know again
22:09
Speaker 2: you know with with with Kamala it's almost like they
22:13
Speaker 2: set them up to fail. This is what what I'm
22:16
Speaker 2: scared of about kim t if you you know, like
22:20
Speaker 2: that that they if they if they manage that, that
22:26
Speaker 2: that would be that would be a big, huge disappointment
22:28
Speaker 2: because you know, just like Democratic Party that failed in
22:32
Speaker 2: their election against Trump, you know, first with Hillary, then
22:36
Speaker 2: with Kamala. If they're gonna continue their own ways, guess what,
22:41
Speaker 2: they're not gonna win.
22:43
Speaker 3: Yeah.
22:43
Speaker 1: It really makes you think what is the possible game here,
22:48
Speaker 1: because let's say they did successfully remove Jennie one after
22:54
Speaker 1: November's UH mayoral and state magistrate election, they're dead in
23:03
Speaker 1: the water for twenty twenty eight. If they don't have
23:05
Speaker 1: the energy of flipping enough districts in twenty twenty six,
23:10
Speaker 1: So it's like, well, you're not going to gain anything?
23:14
Speaker 1: Is it just like infighting and factionalism is baked into the.
23:20
Speaker 3: KMT, DNA or something.
23:22
Speaker 1: I really it's very, very perplexing, But I'm trying to
23:26
Speaker 1: have a good attitude about it because I think Jenny
23:31
Speaker 1: Wynn has overcome a lot just to get to where
23:35
Speaker 1: she is, and she has a lot of support among
23:39
Speaker 1: the RNTK and file in the KMT. So it's time
23:44
Speaker 1: to hope for the best and hope that just by
23:47
Speaker 1: sheer numbers you can overcome the old guard in the
23:52
Speaker 1: KMT that really don't like her. I call them the
23:55
Speaker 1: old blue males, although they're not all male.
24:00
Speaker 2: You know, you know, a what angela Angelica? Somebody might
24:03
Speaker 2: say you you just always go for the girl bosses,
24:05
Speaker 2: you know, because you supported Tie England the girl boss.
24:09
Speaker 2: Now your sports a new one that's girl boss.
24:13
Speaker 3: It's true, you know, I love a good girl boss.
24:17
Speaker 1: And I think even though I now really vehemently disagree
24:23
Speaker 1: with Taie Win's policies, and I think she was bad
24:26
Speaker 1: for Taiwan, and I also think specifically on energy, she
24:30
Speaker 1: was disastrous.
24:33
Speaker 3: She at least.
24:34
Speaker 1: Compared to Lei Chinda, I think she plays the game
24:38
Speaker 1: a lot better. She has much better situational awareness of
24:42
Speaker 1: where everybody's red lines are, and she at least had
24:47
Speaker 1: the presence of mind not to do anything too rash
24:52
Speaker 1: or too irreversible. I feel like Lei Chinda doesn't have
24:57
Speaker 1: any of those instincts. He just knows what he wants,
24:59
Speaker 1: and you know, he pushes towards his goals, like there's
25:04
Speaker 1: an imperviousness to lighting the that I find really unfortunate
25:10
Speaker 1: in such a such a chaotic time. There's an imperviousness
25:15
Speaker 1: to his directions, Like once he decides on a direction,
25:20
Speaker 1: then he moves, moves, moves, moves all the political obstacles
25:24
Speaker 1: so that he can move another step towards that direction.
25:28
Speaker 1: And he's very inflexible. And uh yeah.
25:33
Speaker 3: So that's that's where we are today.
25:35
Speaker 1: You know, in in Taiwan, I've heard somebody say that
25:40
Speaker 1: if if Gauscheon and Tainan, which are the highly pro
25:46
Speaker 1: green PRODPB districts, if they can flip this year, we
25:50
Speaker 1: have a chance. And you know, I hate to say
25:52
Speaker 1: it because nobody wants a disaster, but I think if
25:56
Speaker 1: the energy situation gets bad enough. I think people people
26:00
Speaker 1: are not not I mean to it.
26:02
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, this is the thing. This is I mean,
26:06
Speaker 2: I'm still worried because I know what we talk about
26:11
Speaker 2: is like the silver lining, right, Okay, there's some good
26:14
Speaker 2: that can come out of this crisis, but the crisis
26:18
Speaker 2: itself is still very bad, gonna be bad for a
26:21
Speaker 2: lot of people, a lot of people's livelihoods. You know.
26:24
Speaker 2: For example, I'm here in Bali. We heavily depend on
26:28
Speaker 2: tourism here and Australia, which is one of the main
26:32
Speaker 2: source of tourism to Bali, depend on thirty They import
26:40
Speaker 2: most of their jet fuels and thirty two percent of
26:44
Speaker 2: the jet fuel in Australia is important from China, and
26:49
Speaker 2: China just says okay, guys, we need to serve save
26:53
Speaker 2: those fuels for ourselves. We're gonna stop exporting. So thirty
26:57
Speaker 2: two percent of the jet fuel supply for Australia, it's
27:00
Speaker 2: just gone like that. And their other big supplier is Singapore.
27:04
Speaker 2: But the price at the pump in Singapore is continually
27:08
Speaker 2: shot going up, so you know that's going to affect
27:12
Speaker 2: a number of people who come to Bali from Australia.
27:15
Speaker 2: Because you know, the jet fuels prices going up, air
27:20
Speaker 2: tickets will be more expensive, and if they don't find replacement,
27:25
Speaker 2: there will be no planes flying because there will be
27:27
Speaker 2: no fuel. So yeah, so a lot of people will
27:32
Speaker 2: be affected around the world. We're just at the very
27:36
Speaker 2: early stage yet, especially if Trump is going to go
27:39
Speaker 2: through with this ground invasion thing. I'm still hoping, you know,
27:45
Speaker 2: this is probably hopeless, but I'm still hoping that this
27:48
Speaker 2: is just a Trump's bluffing tactic trying to force Irun
27:53
Speaker 2: to negotiation table, because if he does go through with
27:57
Speaker 2: the ground troops deployment, this is looking increasingly like a
28:01
Speaker 2: Vietnam situation because you know, first Trump sending what one
28:07
Speaker 2: hundred marines from Okinawa, and then he's sending few couple
28:11
Speaker 2: thousands of eighty second Airborne and now that while Street
28:17
Speaker 2: Journal reported another ten thousand troops out of the way,
28:20
Speaker 2: so all together, now they're the TUPE deployment. So currently
28:25
Speaker 2: Middle East region United States already had fifty thousand plus troops.
28:30
Speaker 2: Now they're sending additional seventeen thousand troops there. You know,
28:36
Speaker 2: the amount of TUPE build up make it increasingly likely
28:40
Speaker 2: is not going to be a bluff because it's too
28:42
Speaker 2: expensive to be a bluff the amount of hardware and
28:47
Speaker 2: people that are moving. But if they do move, man,
28:53
Speaker 2: this is giving me all the Vietnam War vibes again.
28:56
Speaker 2: Because Vietnam War, the US ground operation in Viennam started
29:01
Speaker 2: u with the Operation Rolling Thunder, which originally was supposed
29:06
Speaker 2: to be an air aerial campaign. You know, they bomb
29:08
Speaker 2: all the all the infrastructures in North Vietnam, they bound everything,
29:13
Speaker 2: you know they have and then and then in nineteen
29:16
Speaker 2: sixty five, BJA authorized thirty five hundred Marines to Da
29:24
Speaker 2: Nan to secure the airports there. So that's how it started.
29:28
Speaker 2: Thirty five hundred marines. And then four years later, that's
29:32
Speaker 2: half a million American troops on the ground in Vietnam.
29:35
Speaker 2: That's not even including all those so called US allies
29:39
Speaker 2: you know, like Consau's Korea, Australia, Philippines, that the Austin
29:43
Speaker 2: troops there. Yeah, it's this could be really bad. And
29:48
Speaker 2: Uran is a much larger country than Vietnam. At the
29:51
Speaker 2: time of Vietnam War, Vietnam didn't have nearly as much
29:55
Speaker 2: population as you run today. You run today has like
29:58
Speaker 2: ninety million people and have some very difficult terrains. I
30:03
Speaker 2: just I just don't see how this could end well
30:07
Speaker 2: if they do decide to commit troops. Because even during
30:11
Speaker 2: Vietnam War, the American top leadership in the Pentagon, they
30:15
Speaker 2: knew this is not a war that US could win,
30:18
Speaker 2: you know, like a traditional war, because Soviet Union and
30:22
Speaker 2: China at the time was providing a lot of support
30:26
Speaker 2: resources to support the North Vietnamese. But there was no
30:31
Speaker 2: political courage in Washington at that time say okay, let's
30:34
Speaker 2: cut our losses. Let's just you know, let's just wash
30:37
Speaker 2: our hands and walk away. So the war dragged down
30:41
Speaker 2: from and the scope keep on expanding from you know,
30:44
Speaker 2: thirty five hundred Marines two half million Americans on the ground.
30:48
Speaker 2: Is that's the worst case. This is this is what
30:51
Speaker 2: I'm afraid of, which is looking increasingly likely.
30:56
Speaker 1: The parallels are chilling right down to the small contingent
31:02
Speaker 1: going in for a special operation, which is which is
31:04
Speaker 1: where we are now. But I wonder if things can
31:08
Speaker 1: be even worse than that.
31:09
Speaker 3: In some ways, I don't see you going in.
31:11
Speaker 1: The Vietnam way, because domestic support is so low for
31:16
Speaker 1: this war. I just can't imagine mass mobilization in the
31:21
Speaker 1: face of that low support. But I myself, I mean,
31:26
Speaker 1: I don't know. I've been told I'm paranoid about it,
31:29
Speaker 1: but I'm just like, we could see a tactical nuke
31:31
Speaker 1: being used in Iran if things go badly enough. I mean,
31:35
Speaker 1: I see Trump going there or the Israelis for that matter.
31:39
Speaker 2: It's it's possible. And even if US were to change course,
31:44
Speaker 2: because people bring up, oh, this is a midterm season, right,
31:48
Speaker 2: but look, electually is in November. If the issue have
31:51
Speaker 2: to wait till November to be resolved, we're going to
31:55
Speaker 2: be in deep doodo, you know, Like now we're still
31:57
Speaker 2: in March. Like if if the if the straighter hor
32:01
Speaker 2: Mooves were to open, there will be still be major
32:05
Speaker 2: disruptions to the world economy, but at least it's still salvageable. Maybe,
32:12
Speaker 2: like if there if this war were to last on
32:15
Speaker 2: until November and the straighter hor Moose are closed till then,
32:19
Speaker 2: you know, forget it. What this is gonna be worse
32:22
Speaker 2: than COVID, you know, like because the world is gonna
32:25
Speaker 2: run out of fuel, A lot of places is gonna
32:27
Speaker 2: run of food by then, because by November that would
32:31
Speaker 2: be end of the year. Like that's that's a time
32:33
Speaker 2: of harvest, but there won't be any harvest because they
32:36
Speaker 2: didn't have fertilizer like right now to plant crops. So yeah,
32:40
Speaker 2: like I just it's just not good to you know,
32:44
Speaker 2: sometimes I dread, you know, I dread what's gonna happen,
32:48
Speaker 2: but you know, it is what it is. We it's
32:51
Speaker 2: this is why it's it's very disappointing to see like
32:55
Speaker 2: United States is like a drifting ship, like with nobody
32:59
Speaker 2: at the helm right now, it's it's an auto pilots
33:02
Speaker 2: and nobody in the there's no organized political opposition into
33:09
Speaker 2: to like going into Abyss. You know, everybody kind of
33:14
Speaker 2: just watches, you know, monitoring the situation. But God, and
33:19
Speaker 2: just let Trump get away with anything. It's it's really ridiculous.
33:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Democrats are not front and center on this.
33:28
Speaker 1: I feel like they haven't been for a long time.
33:31
Speaker 1: There's there's the desire for people to go to the
33:34
Speaker 1: streets as a desire for people to be political. We've
33:38
Speaker 1: seen that with Minnesota. We've seen that with the continual
33:41
Speaker 1: large turnout to the No King's protests. But where are
33:45
Speaker 1: the Democrats. I feel like they're just there's cowardliness there.
33:51
Speaker 1: It's kind of like the AMT. They just want to
33:53
Speaker 1: sit back and shut up and then win the election
33:56
Speaker 1: in November exactly exactly cult of taking a politic, taking
34:02
Speaker 1: on a tough political fight to stop Trump, even though
34:06
Speaker 1: that might be what the country needs because they know, Okay,
34:10
Speaker 1: he's making all these mistakes. There's probably gonna be some
34:13
Speaker 1: easy pickups in November.
34:15
Speaker 2: Well, you're you're assuming they want to stop Trump because let's,
34:19
Speaker 2: let's face it, Democrats, Republicans, most of them are in
34:24
Speaker 2: the pockets of Israeli lobby anyway. They're all getting a
34:30
Speaker 2: fact's money. So I don't know, I don't know if
34:32
Speaker 2: they're actually interesting into stopping this war. But this is
34:36
Speaker 2: gonna be bad. It's going to be bad for everyone,
34:39
Speaker 2: everyone involved. And yeah, I just hope it's it's just
34:44
Speaker 2: it's just degree. Like you said, it's just a degree
34:46
Speaker 2: of hurt. Some people will be less hurt than others,
34:50
Speaker 2: but everybody will hurt, you know, even China. Yeah, yeah,
34:54
Speaker 2: even China, they will still hurt, even though they are
34:57
Speaker 2: they are more cushion than everybody else.
35:00
Speaker 1: I want to talk to you on China, but I
35:03
Speaker 1: just want to take a minute to say that. I'm
35:05
Speaker 1: very disappointed by the online neolibs, you know, like the
35:09
Speaker 1: people who actually call themselves neolibs.
35:11
Speaker 3: I used to be one of them, and I feel
35:14
Speaker 3: like they.
35:15
Speaker 1: Are basically supporting this war. I mean they'll say things like, oh,
35:18
Speaker 1: it's stupid or whatever, but they're basically in agree as
35:22
Speaker 1: to the goals of this war. They're basically saying things like, oh,
35:26
Speaker 1: we need to find a way to do regime change
35:28
Speaker 1: that doesn't kill so.
35:29
Speaker 3: Many people and it works better.
35:31
Speaker 1: I'm just like, well, if you're going to be like
35:37
Speaker 1: portrayed and pro globalizations and stuff like that, does that
35:43
Speaker 1: how does that come in a package with you know,
35:45
Speaker 1: we get to destabilize whoever we want and just put
35:50
Speaker 1: our own guy in there. I mean, it's it's very disappointing,
35:55
Speaker 1: but here we are.
35:57
Speaker 2: They just want to do imperialism but smart, you know,
36:00
Speaker 2: like like Obama, put a good face around it, you know,
36:04
Speaker 2: put a nice, urbane face imperialism, like like Obama. You know,
36:09
Speaker 2: I always say like Obama is basically Wall Street in blackface,
36:14
Speaker 2: because that's who he represents, and you know, a lot
36:18
Speaker 2: of people and he got a lot of people go
36:20
Speaker 2: And I was Initially I was an Obama supporter, you know,
36:23
Speaker 2: I thought, oh wow, change, Yeah, it's type of change. Yeah, but.
36:32
Speaker 1: It's like he doesn't make a fetish out of the cruelty,
36:35
Speaker 1: but he's still doing all the drone strikes. Right, But
36:40
Speaker 1: let's move on. This is a podcast about the sinosphere,
36:44
Speaker 1: so we definitely we definitely have to talk about both
36:49
Speaker 1: China's preparation and China what China would do next.
36:54
Speaker 3: So I feel like a lot of the.
36:55
Speaker 1: Things that China does that people make fun of it for,
36:59
Speaker 1: like you know, overbuilding, over investment in EV's and batteries.
37:09
Speaker 3: Man, all that.
37:10
Speaker 1: Over preparation really came in clutch when you have a
37:15
Speaker 1: crisis like this. I'm sure if I go to Michael
37:18
Speaker 1: Pettis's X timeline, he is going to still be complaining
37:25
Speaker 1: about how China is over investing in batteries and EV's
37:30
Speaker 1: and that is bad for its economy and bad for
37:33
Speaker 1: its soul. But I think anybody with eyes can see
37:38
Speaker 1: that China really played this really well. I think They've
37:44
Speaker 1: been buying oil like crazy in the run up to
37:48
Speaker 1: this crisis, so they have like more of course you guesstimate,
37:52
Speaker 1: but probably have more than a billion barrel of oil.
37:56
Speaker 2: I saw somewhere between one point two to one point
37:59
Speaker 2: five billion also oil. Yeah, in their research.
38:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they they they're last dependent on oil thanks
38:08
Speaker 1: to their new technology, batteries and evs exactly the things
38:14
Speaker 1: that they overinvested in. The demand for their solar panels,
38:18
Speaker 1: their evs, and their batteries are going to be through
38:21
Speaker 1: the roof because of this crisis. Even if it's magically
38:24
Speaker 1: over tomorrow, I don't think people are going to fully
38:27
Speaker 1: trust the system again to deliver petroleum to them where
38:34
Speaker 1: they needed, whenever they need it. It's going to change
38:37
Speaker 1: people's mindsets.
38:40
Speaker 2: Definitely, I think, you know, I think this is analogous
38:44
Speaker 2: to nineteen seventies oil shock, you know, but by the way,
38:49
Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies that oil shock only like the Arab
38:53
Speaker 2: embargo on oil that only lasted a few months, but
38:58
Speaker 2: the impact was k long. One of the things was
39:02
Speaker 2: consumer habits. Japanese car became very popular because they're more
39:06
Speaker 2: fuel efficient, and I think that's likely the case for
39:10
Speaker 2: Chinese evs. You know, I'm very happy to be a
39:13
Speaker 2: owner of a Chinese EV so I don't need to
39:16
Speaker 2: worry about a fuel price increased for a while until
39:20
Speaker 2: they jack up electricity price. But so far, so far,
39:23
Speaker 2: I'm good. And I'm even thinking about getting solar panels
39:26
Speaker 2: on my roofs, so you know, I can get electricity
39:29
Speaker 2: as well. But yeah, a lot of people's gonna mindset change.
39:34
Speaker 2: And again, China is best set up to take advantage
39:39
Speaker 2: of the shift because they are the largest manufacturer of
39:42
Speaker 2: solar panels, wind turbines, and they have the most expertise
39:49
Speaker 2: in electrification of the country. So so yeah, definitely China
39:54
Speaker 2: stands to benefit, but they will also have to, you know,
39:58
Speaker 2: pay higher energy costs. You know, China is still getting oil.
40:02
Speaker 2: They're still getting oil from Russia. Fun you wrong, You're wrong,
40:06
Speaker 2: is selling more oil to China than they have ever before,
40:09
Speaker 2: even before the war. But they're paying higher prices right
40:13
Speaker 2: for those oil, So so there will still be a
40:17
Speaker 2: price increases, but at least they're getting their essential needs.
40:22
Speaker 1: And he made a really good point, which is that
40:26
Speaker 1: Iranians basically lifted the sanction on themselves because they can
40:30
Speaker 1: sell the oil, right and in fact, the US also
40:33
Speaker 1: said they can sell the oil, so.
40:37
Speaker 2: They're not just themselves. They also helped to lift the
40:40
Speaker 2: sanction of Russian oil.
40:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, right, I don't know.
40:46
Speaker 2: Well, actually, you know, if you listen to Scott Beson,
40:49
Speaker 2: you know he's trying to spin this as a victory.
40:52
Speaker 2: We're jiu jitsu in their oil. We're using their oil
40:56
Speaker 2: to against them. And it's so ridiculous. You said, oh,
41:00
Speaker 2: because those oil are if we don't lift the sanction,
41:04
Speaker 2: those oil are going to China anyway. Girani is gonna
41:08
Speaker 2: sell oil to China anyway. But if we do lift
41:11
Speaker 2: the sanction, now our allies in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan,
41:15
Speaker 2: et cetera can also bid on those Iranian oil that
41:19
Speaker 2: would otherwisely go on to China. But now, hey, here's
41:22
Speaker 2: just where we get them. Here's just we get them
41:25
Speaker 2: when they're pay for that oil in US dollars. We
41:28
Speaker 2: as US Treasury, we have visibility on where this money
41:31
Speaker 2: get deposited, and we can freeze them at their bank account.
41:36
Speaker 2: Now look, look, you just announced that to the whole
41:38
Speaker 2: world on a TV interview. Now, why would Iranian accept
41:43
Speaker 2: dollars after that? And you know, like you said, you said,
41:48
Speaker 2: you know, if they the uruan only except yuan and
41:54
Speaker 2: sell the oil to China, that circulation is kipped. Between
41:57
Speaker 2: Iran and China and there's nothing you can do. Well,
42:00
Speaker 2: guess what, that's exactly what your audian is gonna do.
42:03
Speaker 2: They're gonna keep on demanding to be paying you on
42:06
Speaker 2: and that will again another kick towards the the dollarization worldwide.
42:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just watching Noja and.
42:17
Speaker 1: It can be read as an allegory against the American
42:21
Speaker 1: empire and the dollar system is discord is basically represented
42:28
Speaker 1: by this huge cauldron where they.
42:32
Speaker 2: Put so for for for people, for my audience who
42:35
Speaker 2: might not be familiar with Chinese film industry. Nutsa is
42:39
Speaker 2: like this blockbuster Chinese animation that that was the highest
42:43
Speaker 2: grossing animation film of the you know ever, and and
42:48
Speaker 2: that we're talking about nuts A too, actually the sequel,
42:51
Speaker 2: which was a bigger blockbuster, but yeah, go ahead, sorry, sorry, So.
42:57
Speaker 1: The dollar cauldron absolutely represents dollar supremacy in the movie,
43:04
Speaker 1: and in the movie, the climactic struggle was basically all
43:09
Speaker 1: the enslaved, the enslaved mystical demons or whatever breaking out
43:18
Speaker 1: of the dollar quadron.
43:19
Speaker 3: It was a.
43:20
Speaker 1: Climactic, like, very very cinematic moment. But if you look
43:28
Speaker 1: at what Trump is doing right now, he's basically breaking
43:31
Speaker 1: his own dollar quadron. He is basically screwing it up
43:35
Speaker 1: for himself. I don't think he has any awareness. I
43:38
Speaker 1: think he might be senile. I think we're looking at
43:40
Speaker 1: a totally different landscape going forward. I don't think sanctions
43:44
Speaker 1: are going to be as ever as strong of a
43:47
Speaker 1: weapon as it was before.
43:49
Speaker 2: Marco Rubio said it himself, he said, five years from now,
43:54
Speaker 2: we won't be able to sanction anybody if they keep
43:57
Speaker 2: on moving off the dollar system. You know, that's why
44:00
Speaker 2: we got to stop the bricks, because they're trying to dedollarize,
44:04
Speaker 2: and which is it's like a contradiction. The more they do,
44:10
Speaker 2: the more they push towards the de dollarization, because the
44:13
Speaker 2: more sanctioned they do, they create more incentive for people
44:17
Speaker 2: to move off the dollar system, like like what's going
44:20
Speaker 2: on right now. And one of the biggest propping up
44:24
Speaker 2: of dollars of a store of value is a petro
44:26
Speaker 2: dollar because the back in the seventies, Kissinger workout that
44:31
Speaker 2: deal with the Saudi Royales to price dollar in price
44:35
Speaker 2: oil in dollars. So anybody, any countries who need to
44:39
Speaker 2: import energy from the golf, they need to have a
44:42
Speaker 2: huge dollar reserve in order to pay for that oil,
44:45
Speaker 2: so that creates the demand for the US dollars. US
44:48
Speaker 2: treasury can just print, can print and be like make
44:52
Speaker 2: that the world reserve currency. But if people are not
44:57
Speaker 2: going to sell a oil in dollars, that create less
45:03
Speaker 2: incentive for people to keep a large dollar reserve, especially
45:07
Speaker 2: when that dollar reserve can be freezed at any time
45:11
Speaker 2: by the US government by decree, like the case of
45:14
Speaker 2: Russian sovereign funds. Then yeah, then then that's gonna be
45:17
Speaker 2: a problem. And you know the whole Right now, US
45:22
Speaker 2: consumers are able to kind of live high is in
45:26
Speaker 2: large part because the dollar hegemony makes everything cheaper for them.
45:31
Speaker 2: But if the dollar were to lose their value, jeez, man,
45:35
Speaker 2: it's not gonna be pretty Yeah.
45:38
Speaker 1: Well, I think we need to talk about what China
45:41
Speaker 1: is doing in this in this war, because it can
45:46
Speaker 1: just sit back and relax and just wash the US
45:50
Speaker 1: make its mistake. I happen to think that as such
45:55
Speaker 1: a powerful country in the world and one that has
45:59
Speaker 1: decent relationship with all.
46:01
Speaker 3: The players that are.
46:04
Speaker 1: Around, even even with Israel, right, they have a decent relationship,
46:10
Speaker 1: maybe not the best relationship with the US, but definitely
46:14
Speaker 1: very sole relationship with Iran.
46:16
Speaker 3: Is there something that they can do in.
46:19
Speaker 1: This situation to make things go a little bit better.
46:25
Speaker 2: Well, I'm sure in the background China wished nothing more
46:31
Speaker 2: than to restore stability in Middle East, because China actually
46:36
Speaker 2: have a lot of investment in countries like UAE, which
46:39
Speaker 2: is bombarded by your totally destroyed by Iran in the
46:44
Speaker 2: south and Jones right now. So and China, like you say,
46:51
Speaker 2: it has good relationship with Saudi Arabia, with other GCC
46:54
Speaker 2: countries and with Iran. China broker the Young Saudi Peace Deal.
47:01
Speaker 2: But I said, the problem is right now, it's not
47:04
Speaker 2: between g c C and Sali. Right now, it's really
47:08
Speaker 2: between the United States. I mean, the decision, the initiative
47:12
Speaker 2: is on the hands of US and Israel. These are
47:15
Speaker 2: the parties who initiated the war and don't I just
47:20
Speaker 2: don't see any wiliness on their part too kind of
47:26
Speaker 2: desist because like they, I think, the only only way
47:31
Speaker 2: to bring them to face reality if they hit their
47:36
Speaker 2: head on a rock, which I think it's I think
47:40
Speaker 2: we're seeing a beginning of that. We're seeing a beginning
47:43
Speaker 2: of that, but not enough, not enough to deter them
47:48
Speaker 2: from continue their path. Unfortunately, you know.
47:52
Speaker 1: Like I think, unfortunately, Iran came to the very reasonable
47:56
Speaker 1: conclusion that any kind of premature holding back or ceasefire
48:06
Speaker 1: will be interpreted as weakness and then they'll just have
48:09
Speaker 1: to do this again in another year or something. So
48:14
Speaker 1: they're they are committed to continuing, I think, until they
48:20
Speaker 1: restore deterrence. I personally think it's going to be way more,
48:27
Speaker 1: way more bad then, you know.
48:29
Speaker 3: I think it's going to last a long time.
48:33
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be worse than the oil
48:36
Speaker 1: shocks by a long time, long run, which means we'll
48:39
Speaker 1: be dealing with the repercussions for years potentially.
48:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's I think that is the truth.
48:46
Speaker 2: Because if you look at their demands, you know, you're
48:50
Speaker 2: wrong issue a set of demands for negotiation and Trump
48:53
Speaker 2: issue at demands, they're totally opposite.
48:56
Speaker 3: You know.
48:56
Speaker 2: The US Israeli demand is urram Us disar not only
49:00
Speaker 2: nuclear weapons, but also Uruan must agree to a cap
49:04
Speaker 2: to their missile stock pile to be under a thousand.
49:08
Speaker 2: I mean that that that's just non negotiat. But because
49:11
Speaker 2: because that's the main weapon of Uron right now, that's
49:15
Speaker 2: what that's what gives them power at the negotiation table
49:19
Speaker 2: is their ability to be able to lob missiles on
49:22
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv and US basis. There's no way they're going
49:25
Speaker 2: to agree to that. And on the on the Uranian side,
49:28
Speaker 2: their demand is US pull out the Middle East right,
49:31
Speaker 2: which will be a very hard pill to swallow. You know,
49:35
Speaker 2: these are the alliances the US have been built up
49:38
Speaker 2: for decades since World War Two. For them to give
49:43
Speaker 2: give that up, I just that that's a collapse of
49:46
Speaker 2: US system, in the US empire system in West Asia.
49:49
Speaker 2: So I very I don't see like they have you know,
49:55
Speaker 2: they haven't hit their head hard enough on the rocket
49:58
Speaker 2: to come to realize too to accept that that condition.
50:01
Speaker 2: So unfortunately, I think China could play a role when
50:04
Speaker 2: both sides are have exhausted themselves and and and have
50:09
Speaker 2: a willingness to seek peace, then China can play as
50:13
Speaker 2: an honest broker, you know, because they can't. They can mediate,
50:17
Speaker 2: but I think they need to have some kind of
50:19
Speaker 2: willingness from from the from the belligion belligerents, but particularly
50:25
Speaker 2: from from US and Israel because they're the one who
50:29
Speaker 2: started this whole mess. But for Israel, the Natiyaku has
50:34
Speaker 2: a very strong incentive because for Israel's perspective, they saw
50:39
Speaker 2: this as their best best chance to push for their
50:43
Speaker 2: Greater Israel project, which is to destabilize Irang or balconize
50:49
Speaker 2: Irang or whatever like like Natiaku said, I don't care
50:52
Speaker 2: what happened to Irang regime change or or civil war, balkanization.
50:57
Speaker 2: It's all good. It's all good for me because their
51:00
Speaker 2: goal is to remove any regional power rivals who can
51:05
Speaker 2: present themselves as obstacle to their Greater Israel project to
51:09
Speaker 2: dominate Middle East. This is why that you have that
51:13
Speaker 2: Israeli minister said Turkey is gonna be next after Iran.
51:17
Speaker 2: We're gonna have to go after Turkey, which is crazy
51:21
Speaker 2: thing to say. You know, Turkey is still a natal
51:23
Speaker 2: power member state. So I just don't I think for
51:31
Speaker 2: Israel part, they probably haven't been bombed enough to come
51:34
Speaker 2: to the negotiation table. That's that's the truth. It's unfortunate,
51:38
Speaker 2: you know, like Iran hasn't hit their hit them where
51:42
Speaker 2: it really hurts, which is their power plans and desalination plan.
51:46
Speaker 2: But Yuran did threaten to do that. They say, if
51:49
Speaker 2: Trump was gonna carry out his threat to bomb Iranian power,
51:53
Speaker 2: power grids. They're gonna bomb water desalination plan and power
51:58
Speaker 2: GUIDs of GCC country. And so that actually made Trump
52:02
Speaker 2: back off and say, okay, well I give them ten days.
52:05
Speaker 2: But I think that ten days he's buying time for
52:08
Speaker 2: the Marines and eighty second Airborne to get in place.
52:13
Speaker 2: So right now we're really just waiting kind of see
52:15
Speaker 2: what's Trump's next move, which can really spiral all the
52:20
Speaker 2: control unfortunately.
52:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think at this point, sometimes wars have
52:26
Speaker 1: to be fought to their conclusion, and sometimes ceasefires short
52:30
Speaker 1: of that conclusion is just waiting for both sides to
52:36
Speaker 1: get ready for a rematch.
52:38
Speaker 2: I think like Minsk, like the Minsk Agreement one, a
52:41
Speaker 2: Minska Agreement two, and then then now we're on wrong
52:45
Speaker 2: three you know, the Ukraine War.
52:47
Speaker 1: So yeah, sometimes you just need to come up against
52:51
Speaker 1: one side, have to come up against another, and you get.
52:54
Speaker 2: A But on the more positive side, there are ties
52:59
Speaker 2: where ceasefire do hold. I'm talking about Korean War that
53:04
Speaker 2: was a that was aire that was a ceasefire.
53:10
Speaker 1: Talking to a historian, because you know, I think when
53:15
Speaker 1: you index on history, you have to index on all
53:18
Speaker 1: the history, not just the thing that pops to mind.
53:20
Speaker 1: But you're right that ceasefire held for a long time,
53:23
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, after getting their nuclear weapons
53:30
Speaker 1: at last, North Korea went from unstable thread to the
53:35
Speaker 1: world barely on the news anymore.
53:38
Speaker 3: So isn't that interesting?
53:40
Speaker 2: Yeah? Now I think Jim Kim jung um is like
53:44
Speaker 2: the most vindicated man right now. You know, like like
53:48
Speaker 2: before he's called dictator whatever. Now now people just say, oh,
53:51
Speaker 2: he's just a really good dad. Now he spent time
53:56
Speaker 2: with his daughter, going going out with joy or writing tags.
53:59
Speaker 2: I mean, how cool is that. He's just a girl's dad.
54:04
Speaker 3: He's just a girl dad. He's just a girl dad now.
54:07
Speaker 1: Anyhow, Carl, I actually asked you on this channel this
54:13
Speaker 1: time because what a few weeks ago you had a
54:18
Speaker 1: scare where YouTube actually shut off your whole channel, and
54:23
Speaker 1: I wanted you to have you on to talk about
54:26
Speaker 1: the experience.
54:27
Speaker 3: I'm glad you very quickly got your channel wait.
54:31
Speaker 1: Restored so we could talk about other things, and that
54:34
Speaker 1: was even better.
54:35
Speaker 3: But I still want to ask you.
54:37
Speaker 1: You know, this is getting to be not an isolated case,
54:39
Speaker 1: because I feel like there are a lot of channels
54:42
Speaker 1: in our space that has gotten struck you know, Pascal
54:47
Speaker 1: Lottas got struck. Rick Sanchez and Gonn Deson also got
54:55
Speaker 1: struck once. I believe it was Jeffrey Zas who had
54:59
Speaker 1: to like some strings to get him restored.
55:02
Speaker 3: And what happened to you?
55:04
Speaker 2: What was it like?
55:05
Speaker 3: Did you ever get so?
55:08
Speaker 2: One day? So we actually this was a few days ago,
55:12
Speaker 2: so we actually had an internet outage on the whole
55:15
Speaker 2: island of Bali. This is this plan outage because it's
55:18
Speaker 2: an Uppie Day, which is a bowingie a new year,
55:22
Speaker 2: so on the on the it's also called silent day.
55:24
Speaker 2: So the idea of the silent day is you should
55:29
Speaker 2: spend the day at home without distractions, so no television
55:34
Speaker 2: and no lights, no lights off at night, you know,
55:38
Speaker 2: all the neighborhoods completely dark. You're not supposed to turn
55:41
Speaker 2: on lights. So they also cut the internet so they
55:44
Speaker 2: don't want you to spend time browsing. So I had
55:48
Speaker 2: an entire day twenty four hours of internet outa yeah,
55:53
Speaker 2: for my own serenity. So I had twenty four hours
55:57
Speaker 2: of internet outage, and I woke up next day on Twitter.
56:01
Speaker 2: I was doing my normal ship posting and then I
56:04
Speaker 2: start seeing replies, say Carl what happened to your YouTube channel?
56:07
Speaker 2: I'm like, what do you mean? I went to my
56:09
Speaker 2: YouTube channel. It's like, oh, this channel doesn't exist. And
56:13
Speaker 2: then I saw a notification in my emails and say, oh,
56:17
Speaker 2: you violated our policy on harmful content, so we decide
56:22
Speaker 2: to terminate your channel. There's no they didn't give like
56:27
Speaker 2: specific example which content violated which harmful policy. Instead it
56:32
Speaker 2: tells me you should go read the harmful policy guideline.
56:37
Speaker 2: So it's very vague. I'm like, it doesn't make sense
56:40
Speaker 2: because I don't think I A lot of my content
56:44
Speaker 2: is just talking literally, just me talking to people like you.
56:48
Speaker 2: So I said that this must be a mistake. So
56:50
Speaker 2: I did appeal. I said this must be a mistake.
56:51
Speaker 2: A lot of time just consistent me speaking to kol
56:55
Speaker 2: you know, key opinion leaders and academics about issues, don't
57:00
Speaker 2: see anything that constituted violation of harmful countent policy. This
57:03
Speaker 2: must be a mistake, you know. I try to be polite.
57:06
Speaker 2: But a couple of hours later, they come back says, uh,
57:10
Speaker 2: now we review your content. Now it did violate our policy.
57:14
Speaker 1: Sorry.
57:15
Speaker 2: I know it must be hard news for you, but
57:18
Speaker 2: we decide not to accept you. A feel your channel
57:22
Speaker 2: is still getting canceled. So that's when I posted on Twitter.
57:27
Speaker 2: I just says, you know, YouTube removed my channel. Apparently
57:30
Speaker 2: a lot of people retweeted cool tweeted because this comes
57:35
Speaker 2: in aftermath of Rick Sanchez channel getting removed. Uh and
57:39
Speaker 2: also you know the recent debacco with Glenn Nielsen, so
57:46
Speaker 2: so at that point, so this is actually useful part
57:50
Speaker 2: for people who run YouTube channel. The the the Team
57:57
Speaker 2: YouTube account, which is a YouTube support account on Twitter,
58:02
Speaker 2: actually replied to me under that tweet says we will
58:05
Speaker 2: promise to look into it. I think because they saw
58:09
Speaker 2: the public outcry. And then a few hours later later
58:14
Speaker 2: that evening, they said, oh, we restore your we restore
58:18
Speaker 2: your channel, and they didn't say why. We decided we
58:21
Speaker 2: review your thing again and we decided didn't violate any policy.
58:25
Speaker 2: And then so so later but then then I tweet
58:31
Speaker 2: about it again about how I got my channels back,
58:35
Speaker 2: and the Team up account, a Team YouTube account on
58:38
Speaker 2: x again replied to me. He said, oh, you will
58:40
Speaker 2: receive an email from our investigation team and tell you
58:44
Speaker 2: what happened. So this is where interesting thing happens. A
58:49
Speaker 2: few hours later, I got a notification from from the
58:53
Speaker 2: YouTube after my channel has already been restored. I got
58:57
Speaker 2: a notification says I have a violation of community guideline.
59:02
Speaker 2: I got a warning. I'm like what what again? I'm
59:05
Speaker 2: like again, I click on the warning and it's an
59:09
Speaker 2: old video that was posted. So I've got hacked last year.
59:15
Speaker 2: I don't know if people remember I got hacked by
59:17
Speaker 2: my channel got taken over so people. They removed my
59:21
Speaker 2: videos and uploaded a bunch of crypto scam videos on
59:26
Speaker 2: my channel, and I again I had to I sent
59:32
Speaker 2: this is because my bed. Because one day, my because
59:36
Speaker 2: my wife have access to my email com because I'm
59:40
Speaker 2: sometimes I'm not very good at checking emails, so I
59:43
Speaker 2: give access to my wife so she will always alert
59:45
Speaker 2: me if it's something important comes through my email. And uh,
59:49
Speaker 2: one day, in the early in the morning, my wife's like, oh,
59:53
Speaker 2: wake up, wake up, there's an email punk fun Google
59:56
Speaker 2: says you got hacked. I was like what I went
59:59
Speaker 2: He says, your your your account compromise. Click on this
1:00:02
Speaker 2: link to reset your password. So without thinking, without thinking,
1:00:07
Speaker 2: without even checking the email that was sending to me,
1:00:10
Speaker 2: I click on the link and reset my password. And
1:00:13
Speaker 2: that's how I got hacked and this is a very
1:00:16
Speaker 2: common you know, I wasn't thinking so, so people don't
1:00:20
Speaker 2: do that, don't click on random clinks, and definitely after
1:00:24
Speaker 2: click random links don't provide your security information. So anyway,
1:00:28
Speaker 2: so that when what I was hacked, I send emails
1:00:32
Speaker 2: to YouTube support right away. Again no response for a day,
1:00:37
Speaker 2: for a couple of days, so I went on YouTube,
1:00:41
Speaker 2: I search. I found a YouTube video who talk about
1:00:45
Speaker 2: how to recover your account by some content creator. He
1:00:48
Speaker 2: said the best way to actually get humans to contact
1:00:53
Speaker 2: you is post on Twitter and add team YouTube. So
1:00:59
Speaker 2: this piece are I think it would be very important
1:01:01
Speaker 2: for people YouTube content creators. So if you have a problem,
1:01:04
Speaker 2: go to post on x at the team YouTube. And
1:01:08
Speaker 2: so that's what I did. I told them I was hacked,
1:01:11
Speaker 2: and finally they got back to me and they verified
1:01:14
Speaker 2: it was hacked and hand the control back to me
1:01:17
Speaker 2: by distinctly. Remember I went into the count and they
1:01:21
Speaker 2: deleted every single scammer videos. So it's so I'm like, what,
1:01:26
Speaker 2: So this time it saw I got a content warning,
1:01:31
Speaker 2: a new countent warning. It says this video violated our
1:01:35
Speaker 2: harmful policies. And and then I seemed another email from YouTube.
1:01:41
Speaker 2: They say, oh, we review your account. It looks like
1:01:43
Speaker 2: it's because yourcount got hacked last year and the the
1:01:47
Speaker 2: hacker uploaded one of their scam videos which did violate
1:01:52
Speaker 2: our policy, and that's what triggered us to remove your channel,
1:01:58
Speaker 2: you know, termination because of that. But that sounds like
1:02:03
Speaker 2: very I don't know. I don't know, man, that because
1:02:06
Speaker 2: it's kind of plausible. But first of all, I remember
1:02:10
Speaker 2: I removed all those scam videos. I never received that
1:02:14
Speaker 2: warning until I didn't even receive the warning after the
1:02:18
Speaker 2: immediately after they restored my channel. I only receive it
1:02:22
Speaker 2: at the same time when they send an email telling
1:02:24
Speaker 2: me this is a reason originally we uh remove your channel,
1:02:30
Speaker 2: and they still give me a warning. What the heck, man,
1:02:32
Speaker 2: why didn't you just remove the video? They still give
1:02:35
Speaker 2: me a warning. So I had to go take the
1:02:37
Speaker 2: take the community Guideline training in order to remove that
1:02:41
Speaker 2: warning three months from now, because I don't want to appeal.
1:02:45
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just too much trouble. I just just
1:02:47
Speaker 2: lit that that warning expire after three months after I
1:02:51
Speaker 2: take the take their training. But so they do have
1:02:53
Speaker 2: a plausible excuse for terminating my channel. But I think
1:02:58
Speaker 2: you could you know, it could it could be my
1:03:01
Speaker 2: memory got faulty somehow I let this one video slip,
1:03:06
Speaker 2: you know, like I forgot to remove or this is
1:03:08
Speaker 2: just their way to say, okay, so you see we didn't.
1:03:11
Speaker 2: We didn't remove your channel because censorship is because you know,
1:03:15
Speaker 2: we're worried about scam. So who knows, but I think
1:03:18
Speaker 2: Rick Sanchez they got him because he was posting a
1:03:22
Speaker 2: lot of his RT interviews like directly onto his YouTube channel,
1:03:30
Speaker 2: and YouTube hates that because RT is you know, being
1:03:34
Speaker 2: sinsor it's been blocked. So if you if you repost RT,
1:03:38
Speaker 2: you know, that's that's what they will. They will terminate
1:03:41
Speaker 2: you for that. So you guys have to be careful,
1:03:45
Speaker 2: so like make sure your your content, you know, or
1:03:52
Speaker 2: if you have to, if you post RT your interview
1:03:55
Speaker 2: on RT, at least block out the RT logo so
1:04:00
Speaker 2: the AI won't pick it up. You know, I don't
1:04:03
Speaker 2: know how smarter AI that. That's the thing. I was
1:04:06
Speaker 2: talking to another YouTuber about this. I was thinking, like,
1:04:11
Speaker 2: you don't even know if the original decision was made
1:04:14
Speaker 2: by AI or not. You could just just be some
1:04:16
Speaker 2: AI who who now this this is not the content
1:04:20
Speaker 2: we like remove and then yeah, yeah, The only way
1:04:26
Speaker 2: I got touched into human again was go to X
1:04:30
Speaker 2: and add Team YouTube, so that I think that's that's
1:04:33
Speaker 2: a piece of information that will be useful to other
1:04:36
Speaker 2: YouTube content creators.
1:04:38
Speaker 1: Well I hope I never have to use that, but
1:04:41
Speaker 1: if I do, then then I don't know how to
1:04:45
Speaker 1: heal YouTube decisions.
1:04:47
Speaker 2: And the public upward does help, I'm sure because I
1:04:50
Speaker 2: didn't even this last time. I didn't even add them
1:04:53
Speaker 2: is because I just said YouTube reef with my channel
1:04:56
Speaker 2: that a lot of my followers on X they add
1:04:59
Speaker 2: Team YouTube, so I think enough people at them so
1:05:01
Speaker 2: they finally took a look at it. But yeah, so
1:05:05
Speaker 2: that's what happened.
1:05:07
Speaker 1: I'm glad you're back, and I'm so glad you made
1:05:10
Speaker 1: the time to come to my channel, Carl. I was
1:05:13
Speaker 1: a great conversation. We're all monitoring this situation because there's
1:05:17
Speaker 1: so much situation to monitor, and I feel like by
1:05:20
Speaker 1: the time we get through this, it's going to be
1:05:23
Speaker 1: a whole new world yet again, for better or for worse.
1:05:27
Speaker 3: So thank you very much.
1:05:30
Speaker 2: Thank you