Latest / In the Loop AI / Tesla's Flying Roadster Is Really About SpaceX
Transcript
- 0:00It's been almost a decade since Tesla debuted the Roadster, their flagship car,
- 0:04and last week on Thursday, Elon Musk finally showed us the car.
- 0:09I watched a Tesla Roadster car drive up a ramp, turn upside down while stationary,
- 0:15staying stuck to the ramp, launch itself off said ramp,
- 0:20fly through the air, and then land perfectly into cruise control without a single
- 0:26dent or bit of damage on the car.
- 0:28Now, I understand what I just described to you sounds like AI,
- 0:32but it is anything but AI.
- 0:34And it uses some really neat physics tricks that I'm going to get into.
- 0:37But I realized it is the perfect combination of SpaceX and Tesla engineering
- 0:43that is going to propel, pun intended, cars, manufacturing and automobiles into the future.
- 0:49We are actually getting flying cars. But it also told me another story and the rumor mill is going.
- 0:55That Tesla and SpaceX might actually merge by the end of the year,
- 0:58forming what is going to be the fifth largest company in the entire world.
- 1:03I'm still in Japan. It's my final day. I've got my kimono on,
- 1:06but I'm excited to get into it and back to the regular schedule starting on
- 1:10tomorrow's episode. So all of this and more on today's episode of In The Loop
- 1:14brought to you by Qualcomm.
- 1:19Okay, so first we have to watch this video. There's jets of air propelling itself out of the car.
- 1:25It's spinning the car onto its front. It's landing it perfectly.
- 1:29There's a loud whirring noise when you listen to this video of air suction.
- 1:33You're wondering what on earth is going on.
- 1:35And then you're thinking, is this video sped up or slowed down?
- 1:38How on earth is a car able to stay stuck to the wall?
- 1:41Well, there's actually three neat physics tricks happening here,
- 1:44which combines SpaceX's engineering with that of Tesla's, which has produced
- 1:48a new type of car which can only be classified as a flying car and this wasn't
- 1:52the only neat trick that they showed us at the pre-launch event for the roadster i watched this car
- 1:58fly over trucks and cars i watched it go from 0 to 60 mile per hour in 0.81
- 2:04seconds which is the fastest of any road car ever and it basically got me questioning
- 2:08everything that i know about cars and what they're about to become
- 2:12so i wanted to understand the first trick which is
- 2:15how on earth did they get a car to stick to the wall because what you're seeing on your screen.
- 2:21Is in real time. And so no way could a normal car stay stuck to the wall,
- 2:25it would have fallen and crashed to the ground.
- 2:28Well, this car is equipped with an immense fan suction system.
- 2:33So it's embedded on the underbelly of the car, and it is sucking out all the
- 2:39air from underneath the car.
- 2:40And what this does is it creates an immense downwards force or downwards pressure,
- 2:46pushing the car onto any surface that it is driving on.
- 2:49Now the power of this force is up to 4,700 kgs, which is around 4.7 tons.
- 2:57That is a lot of force, 2 g's worth of force.
- 3:00And so therefore when the car is upside down or perpendicular to the ground,
- 3:04it's still enough to stick it to whatever surface that it's riding on, in this case, the ramp.
- 3:10And so that's what effectively is happening underneath the car that causes it to maintain traction.
- 3:14Now you might be wondering what is the physical or practical reality of this?
- 3:18Well, you can imagine if the car is moving at high speeds and you don't want
- 3:21it to barrel roll, or if you want it to have the best traction or safety when
- 3:25you are turning the steering wheel, this gives you that added traction.
- 3:30Now, the second trick that you saw were these jet streams that were shooting
- 3:34out of the car at weird times to try and stabilize its direction and help it
- 3:38land beautifully after it propelled itself off of the ramp.
- 3:42What I'm showing you on your screen now is something that Tesla's calling their thruster.
- 3:48But this thruster isn't like any
- 3:49typical thruster that you would see on a rocket or that of any other car.
- 3:54It contains highly pressurized compressed gas in this spherical shape that you're
- 4:00seeing on your screen right now.
- 4:02And this gas is basically released and it expands super aggressively or very
- 4:07quickly in milliseconds, such that it creates this immense force that can push
- 4:12the car in multiple different directions.
- 4:15Now, the car itself is fitted out to the max with these thrusters.
- 4:19They have about 10 of them.
- 4:20And coincidentally, these are the same thrusters that SpaceX used on the Falcon 9.
- 4:26So the spherical storage tank that you're seeing right at the end of this thruster
- 4:30basically is the container for
- 4:33this highly compressed gas. It's usually a mixture of nitrogen and oxygen.
- 4:37The cool thing about this is there's zero fuel or petroleum involved anywhere. It is just gas.
- 4:43And then you have an electric valve, which basically opens at a given point
- 4:46or time due to various different sensors and allows the gas to release and expand.
- 4:52And then Newton's law of motion applies here, where if it pushes a car in a
- 4:56certain direction or forces enough gas in one particular direction it can push
- 5:01the car stabilize the car in a particular different way
- 5:04and so as you're going back to the original demo that i showed you when it propels
- 5:08or launches itself off of the ramp
- 5:11these gas streams from these different thrusters help stabilize it now the scene
- 5:15i immediately think of when i watched this was that scene when matthew mcconaughey in interstellar.
- 5:21Docks the ship and he uses his robot tars to control this pretty precarious
- 5:26situation using these highly pressurized jet streams of gas to make sure or ensure.
- 5:32That the spaceship lands in a very specific way.
- 5:36That's exactly what this Tesla car does. And it's worth pointing out that SpaceX's
- 5:40supply chain is probably the only one belonging to any space company or any
- 5:45company in the world that could do this at scale.
- 5:49Now, Elon Musk did go on to say that the release of this car is probably going to be sometime in 2028.
- 5:55But the point is, if you are any other space company that wants to try and recreate
- 5:57this, there's no way that you could get it down to a cost optimal path.
- 6:01I'll get into prices later. But the idea here is,
- 6:04this is a first of a kind. But the third and final trick is something that is a lot more relatable.
- 6:10It is wings on the back of the car that you're seeing on the screen here fold
- 6:14out from the trunk like area of the car.
- 6:17And it does so in a very sleek and subtle way. Now, if you're a fan of Fast
- 6:21and Furious or any racing movie, you typically see this kind of architecture
- 6:25on the back of a car that goes super fast because there's less drag.
- 6:29It's way more aerodynamic.
- 6:30And it creates, most importantly a downward pressure as the car is moving fast.
- 6:35Now think about it if you have a car that's moving incredibly fast but doesn't
- 6:39have any downward pressure as soon as you steer the car it goes out of control
- 6:42and it starts to barrel roll but if you are able to generate downwards force
- 6:47then we have a different situation.
- 6:48Now this version or this form of the car is known as track mode and I believe
- 6:53it's towards a model that doesn't have the expensive fan suction system that
- 6:57you're seeing in the earlier demos that I showed you.
- 7:00But it's still cool nonetheless, and it achieves downwards force.
- 7:04Bigger than any other car or road car or land car that is accessible to an average user.
- 7:10And it's almost to the level and point of an F1 car. And you're achieving something
- 7:14similar at a regular consumer car.
- 7:17Pretty insane. And honestly, I have to give it to Elon and SpaceX and Tesla
- 7:22in general, because they managed to keep this a secret for so long.
- 7:27And on this video here, you'll see the footage that they released afterwards
- 7:31of all the test runs that they did to try and create the thrusters that would
- 7:36be repurposed from SpaceX rockets to make sense
- 7:39for a regular consumer car to show the jet streams propelling the car up and
- 7:44making sure it lands in a safe-like manner.
- 7:46I'm guessing they went through so many different types of crashes.
- 7:49The formation of the fan suction system to make sure that it generates enough
- 7:53downward pressure so that you can literally drive your car upside down and to
- 7:57create the wing system as well to do this for an average regular car that doesn't
- 8:01have the fan suction system. Now, in terms of price.
- 8:04They didn't really release any at all. But they did say that if you want the
- 8:08performance version, it's a $50,000 deposit.
- 8:11If you want the thrust version, which was the Jetstreams that you saw on your
- 8:16screen, it's a $250,000 deposit, a quarter of a million dollars.
- 8:21And then you have the rocket version, which is, as far as I'm concerned,
- 8:25undefined, which is invite only.
- 8:28So it's been, what, almost a decade since they announced the Roadster,
- 8:31and it's gonna be another two years until we actually get access to this thing.
- 8:35So it's still TBD whether this actually gets mass produced, but it's such a
- 8:40cool car demo. But stepping away from the sci-fi of it all, there is a more
- 8:45strategic reason why I think Elon Musk is creating this car.
- 8:49He's demonstrating that he can merge some of the most powerful capabilities
- 8:53and technologies from both companies to create something net new that the world has not seen.
- 8:58Now, it's no secret that Elon Musk has been incredibly bullish on space.
- 9:02He's been bullish for various different reasons. He believes getting humans
- 9:05to extraterrestrial planets is one of the most important things.
- 9:09Kardashev's law of scaling to kind of harness the energy of the Sun,
- 9:12in this case, to power AI models and generate compute, an abundance of compute
- 9:16that he thinks will help power the world and generate tons and tons of wealth
- 9:20for anyone and everyone in the future.
- 9:22But also to create as many robots, and robots come in the form of cars or humanoid
- 9:26robots in Tesla Optimus.
- 9:29As we can so that you can help humanity propel as AI and robotics merge.
- 9:34So then it would only make sense if Tesla and SpaceX would merge.
- 9:38Now, if you watched one of our early episodes almost a year,
- 9:42maybe a year and a half ago, you knew that we predicted it on this show.
- 9:46We predicted well before SpaceX actually IPO'd that SpaceX should end up merging
- 9:53with Tesla because there's so much synergies between the two.
- 9:56Tesla has all these different battery packs that would be required to power
- 9:59the data centers that SpaceX and its AI efforts were trying to push out.
- 10:03And simultaneously, SpaceX could benefit from all the humanoid robots that they
- 10:06were building to help autonomously build spaceships, to refuel rockets,
- 10:10and help achieve Elon's cadence of launching a rocket every hour,
- 10:14whatever that is, by 2032.
- 10:16And the rumor mill says that we may get an announcement as early as December
- 10:21or first week of December from Tesla announcing that they have plans to merge.
- 10:27Now, Elon has been a little vague about this, but he has been suggestive,
- 10:32and it wouldn't surprise me if this deal ends up happening.
- 10:35Now, the rumor also says that the most likely structure is SpaceX acquires Tesla
- 10:41in an all-stock deal, where Tesla shareholders get about 0.7%.
- 10:46SpaceX shares per Tesla share, plus a likely premium.
- 10:50And so Barclays says that Musk would own about 37% of the combined company with
- 10:55roughly 56% voting power.
- 10:58Now, the combined valuation of both of these companies would put it at the fifth
- 11:02largest company in the world. And listen, I have thoughts about all of this.
- 11:07I get the camp of critics that say that Elon is just doing all these different
- 11:12fancy demos to raise as much money as he can so that he can kind of keep the wheel going.
- 11:19And there's a lot of validity behind it, because although these concepts are
- 11:23very cool to watch and talk about and show because it's pretty viral, blah, blah, blah.
- 11:27The question about whether they can actually scale this to a mass audience is
- 11:31still uncertain, and it's still probabilistically a harder feat to actually pull off.
- 11:38We have to figure out the manufacturing of all of these things.
- 11:41We have to figure out getting the cost down so people can actually afford and buy it.
- 11:45You need to figure out the safety laws behind this. There has never been a flying car.
- 11:50There needs to be a lot of regulation and laws formed around these different kinds of things.
- 11:54And of course, Elon is very infamous for having delayed production times and
- 11:58the Roadster is actually the most delayed product that has come from one of Elon's companies.
- 12:03But on the other side, Elon is the only entrepreneur and innovator that is doing
- 12:09stuff like this. He's the guy that had the wacky wild idea of launching GPUs into space.
- 12:13And now it looks like it is very likely over the next couple of years.
- 12:17He was the first one to say that electric cars will become way more popular than petrol or gas cars.
- 12:23And back then, I remember, everyone thought he was crazy and he was able to pull it off.
- 12:27Everyone thought he was crazy when he said launching rockets and reusing them.
- 12:31So catching them and reusing them was impossible and he's been able to demonstrate it. Now of course.
- 12:36Demonstrating it and mass scale, as I said earlier, is a very different thing.
- 12:40But consolidating all these companies is going to help him achieve his goal
- 12:45versus keeping them as separate entities. So I'm glad to see that some of this
- 12:49consolidation might be happening.
- 12:51And it's a huge win for SpaceX, especially after their IPO and for Tesla,
- 12:54whose stock has been fairly flat over the last year.
- 12:58Now, speaking of IPOs, Anthropic is set to have a blockbuster IPO at $2.2 trillion valuation.
- 13:04And they're set to have their IPO roadshow start in about two weeks' time.
- 13:10And the idea here is they'll release their S1 prospectus, which will basically
- 13:14reveal all the details of their finances over the last year and a half to two years,
- 13:18and also their pitch as to why you should invest in their IPO,
- 13:22except the tide seemed to have turned recently on Anthropic.
- 13:26I'm showing this tweet by Andrew Curran here, where he basically goes,
- 13:30there was a meeting that happened between Anthropic and investors where they revealed some numbers.
- 13:34And the headline number is Anthropic's third quarter revenue rose 45% to $16.8 billion.
- 13:43Now, to put that into context, that is humongous. In the first quarter of this
- 13:47year, they earned about $4.3 billion, and the second quarter was $11.5 billion.
- 13:52So between the first and the second quarter, it jumped up over 100%.
- 13:56And then in this third quarter, it jumped up another 45%, except investors are
- 14:00reading that as things are slowing down, which is, I guess, accurate,
- 14:05but still a crazy take because that is a heck ton of money.
- 14:08And they are on track to hit in Q4, an ARR of about $116 billion.
- 14:15Now, that is a far cry from what Dario initially predicted at the start of the
- 14:19year of $10 billion. So Anthropik is easily one of the fastest growing companies in the world.
- 14:25And yet the market is still reading it as bearish. That Anthropica promised to keep.
- 14:31Growing their revenue, and they're currently showing a slowdown.
- 14:34And people are attributing the reasoning to losing enterprise market share to
- 14:39their competitor, OpenAI, who have launched, in their defense,
- 14:43a really good coding model that has improved drastically over the last six months.
- 14:47Codex, people have been shifting over to it.
- 14:49I think this is a bit of a nothing burger. I'm showing this tweet from John
- 14:54Dunnigan on my screen, where he basically talks about Anthropic agreeing to
- 14:58license this technology from a company called Opaque Systems.
- 15:02Now, Opaque Systems basically helps you or your models train on proprietary
- 15:07data, like from an enterprise, in a completely encrypted and secretive manner,
- 15:11which should give enterprises the confidence that they can use cloud models
- 15:14without knowing that they're going to steal from them.
- 15:16So I think this is a nothing burger. I think that Anthropics revenue is still
- 15:20soaring. And I think the fact that their revenue is down due to adjusted basis
- 15:24performance or whatever that might be, is because they have to spend so much
- 15:28money to acquire compute.
- 15:29If you've noticed, the cards or the tables have sort of changed between OpenAI
- 15:33and Anthropic. Typically, OpenAI is the one that has most of the compute and
- 15:37Anthropic has to hold back on releasing their models or rolling out to anyone
- 15:41and everyone specifically.
- 15:42But that has flipped over the last couple of weeks when OpenAI has suddenly
- 15:46become constrained and raising the prices of their subscription whilst halving
- 15:50usage capacity. And Anthropic has actually had more abundance of compute rolling
- 15:54out to as many users as they can.
- 15:56So I think that after Anthropic announced, I believe a few weeks ago,
- 16:00that they wanted to or they plan to spend over half a trillion dollars over
- 16:05the next 10 years on compute, that this is probably where the money is going
- 16:10to. But there's also another reason.
- 16:11I think that these AI labs, not just Anthropic, are very close to achieving
- 16:16something called recursive self-intelligence, where basically
- 16:18you have an AI model that can build and design the next version of itself,
- 16:22which means that this whole acceleration of AI models, the improvement of them,
- 16:26the power of them will be reached much, much quicker.
- 16:31As these models work 24-7 overnight.
- 16:33And Dwakesh on an interview this week actually confirmed, or he said,
- 16:38at least from himself, his own claim that Anthropic employees have been talking
- 16:41to him saying that RSI will be achieved as close as within the next nine months.
- 16:47OpenAI has said something pretty similar, but it's not without evidence.
- 16:50Anthropic's code changes that they've been pushing autonomously via their models,
- 16:54via their agents. And by the way, I think it's 50% of all code is currently
- 16:58being pushed autonomously or generated autonomously by their models.
- 17:02And almost 90% of all code generated has had AI models involved.
- 17:08So we're not too far off AI models just taking over the whole process,
- 17:11but where the gap is, where the delta is, is taste. These AI models...
- 17:17Whilst they're good at executing, aren't really good at figuring out what tasks
- 17:21they should do or what the design of the research is that they should go after.
- 17:25And Anthropic researchers are
- 17:26basically saying, we're going to get there within the next nine months.
- 17:29And if you look at the data, changes merged per day on Anthropic's monorepo,
- 17:34it has absolutely shut up.
- 17:36It has 10x'd since May. As this tweet says, Claude is able to autonomously iterate
- 17:41on research loops, micro-optimize complex programs, and build new services from
- 17:45the ground up at a speed and scale we haven't seen before.
- 17:49Now, speaking of Frontier Labs, one which is relatively new to the scene,
- 17:52Meta, has been doing some pretty awesome stuff in the open source world.
- 17:55So let's get into that on today's episode brought to you by Qualcomm.
- 18:02Mark Zuckerberg started his whole AI effort at Meta, pushing open source forward.
- 18:07It started with the Llama series of models and ended with Llama 4,
- 18:11which was at the time a huge disappointment.
- 18:13Since then, Meta has basically fired their entire AI team, spent upwards of
- 18:18$50 billion to acquire around 150 to 200 people and form Meta Super Intelligence
- 18:25Labs. And they've pushed out a bunch of AI products, which I've absolutely hated.
- 18:28But recently, a bunch that I absolutely love. And part of this is their series
- 18:33of models called MuseSpark. You've got 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3.
- 18:37And 1.3 is a really good model. It's a coding model and an agentic reasoning model.
- 18:43It's not necessarily frontier, but it works really well for specific niche use
- 18:48cases or specific work that you might want to kind of point and shoot an AI agent or AI model at.
- 18:54And this week, Mark Zuckerberg decided to open source that model.
- 18:58Now, think about this. This is a model that they have spent billions of dollars
- 19:02pre-training, post-training, proprietary designing, and then now releasing to
- 19:07the wide world to actually use.
- 19:09Now, there was a lot of critics, including myself, that basically thought that
- 19:13once Meta had fired and hired a new AI team, once they had failed on their initial
- 19:18open source LLAMA series, that they would not open source models.
- 19:20So it's pretty awesome to see that the American frontier of open source is so
- 19:25back and it's led by none other than Meta.
- 19:28But the coolest part about this story is that this new model,
- 19:31MuseSpark Open, can actually run on the latest Mac Studio, and they launched
- 19:37it in partnership with Apple.
- 19:39John Turnus, who is the new CEO and actually a hardware guru at Apple,
- 19:43he's been there for 18 years building some of the most popular devices that
- 19:46you and I use in our daily lives, and.
- 19:49Was the man that kind of helped engineer or make sure that the design of the
- 19:53Mac Studio was something that could befit a model as large and as big as Muse Spark Open.
- 19:59Now the stats for this thing is pretty cool. Alexander Wang basically says that
- 20:03this is an 816 billion parameter model, which is fairly big.
- 20:07And let me tell you, the American frontier for open source was way,
- 20:10way, way behind. So seeing something like this become available to anyone and
- 20:14everyone in the West is pretty awesome to see.
- 20:16Also, it's just good to see competition in general. And when you look at the
- 20:19benchmarks, it is great at GDPVAL, which is essentially general common knowledge work.
- 20:25So if you want to give it access to a tool to help you do your work,
- 20:28it's really good at that.
- 20:29But it's also good at agentic reasoning and long horizon tasks,
- 20:32which basically means if you give it a task that is meant to typically take
- 20:36days, it can actually keep working on it and have between a 40 to 50% chance
- 20:41of actually getting it right.
- 20:42And I expect to see that stat increase in.
- 20:45Many times over as these models start to improve, which begs the question, how soon will that be?
- 20:50Well, technically, Meta has released seven new models over the last three months.
- 20:55So that's a new model every, I think it's 11 or 13 days, which is absolutely insane.
- 21:00Because just a year ago, we wouldn't get a new model until we waited for three months.
- 21:05And that was from the Frontier Lab. So for Meta to be so far behind and catch
- 21:09up to where they are today is really awesome.
- 21:12And I'm glad to see open source winning. And then the final item on the docket
- 21:15is Google generally releasing their new Gemini 4 model, Argon.
- 21:20Now, I spoke about this last week when I had a conversation around whether Google
- 21:25can actually pull off a comeback.
- 21:26They had the lead or they were near having the lead at the end of last year,
- 21:31which was not that long ago.
- 21:33But since then, they underwent a lot of problems at the company.
- 21:36The DNA of the company decided to spend resources pretty haphazardly.
- 21:41They decided to build models that weren't really engineered around what customers
- 21:46or the market actually desired. They didn't focus on enterprise.
- 21:49They didn't really focus on consumer.
- 21:50They built many different models that worked in different subscription packages.
- 21:53It was a whole palaver and mess, which ended up in Demis Sissibis stepping away
- 21:58from the company or stepping away from his AI role at the company.
- 22:01And also a lot of key staff like Noam Shazir leaving to OpenAI and others leaving to Anthropic.
- 22:07So Google was in a bit of a precarious situation. But they have since released,
- 22:10finally, after delaying their model, Gemini Argon 4. And the reviews.
- 22:14I have to say, are actually quite good.
- 22:17My main concern for this model was that it was benchmarked. Because when I looked
- 22:21at the benchmarks last week, it looked pretty damn impressive.
- 22:25But I had to question how on earth they were able to pull this off.
- 22:29Like, what did it actually feel like to use this product? Now.
- 22:32I'll be the first to put my hands up.
- 22:34I don't know yet. I'm going to spend the weekend actually using the product.
- 22:38And if it's good or if it's bad, I'm going to give you a review next week.
- 22:41So stay tuned for that episode. But from the feedback that has been given from
- 22:45people, Ethan Mollick goes, I spent a decent amount of time with Gemini 4 before
- 22:49launch. Overall, Gemini 4 is a big jump over previous Gemini models.
- 22:53And it is the first non open air anthropic model to pass the fable Mythos Astrobar.
- 22:59So he's basically saying this thing is pretty damn good.
- 23:01It is also much more pleasant and more agentic than previous Gemini models.
- 23:05Basically, the taste of the model, it's much more easier to deal with.
- 23:08In fact, a big advantage is that it has a very different personality and sense
- 23:12of taste than Claude or Astra, which is a big deal.
- 23:15So when I'm using Claude, it is very verbose.
- 23:18It says way too many words, and I have to read an essay every time I have to get an answer from it.
- 23:24Now, with Astra, I don't have to read an essay, but it is quite sycophantic
- 23:28when I don't want it to be. It's quite agreeable when I don't want it to be.
- 23:31I want it to push back more. Ethan basically says that Gemini is not like that.
- 23:35But he also says that it's still not the best model to use when it comes to
- 23:40coding, when it comes to the majority of his work.
- 23:42But it's good to sort of bring into the fold and kind of get it to acclimatize
- 23:47to whatever work you're doing.
- 23:48And maybe in some cases, it actually benefits or excels. Justine Moore from
- 23:52A16Z said that it has really good visual intelligence.
- 23:56And what you're seeing on your screen here is she asked it to create an interactive
- 24:00museum for Apple computers. And it is pretty damn impressive to see. Am I making sense?
- 24:05It's just a crazy world. But Gemini is really pushing the frontier forwards.
- 24:09And, you know, we'll see once I get my hands on it, whether we can do something cool here.
- 24:12And that is it for the roundup. I will be back in the hot seat next week,
- 24:16maybe drop the kimono and wear something a little more normal.
- 24:19But thank you so much for listening. I love interacting with you guys.
- 24:22I love reading all your comments, whether it's good, bad.
- 24:26Criticism is always welcome. I'm always trying to figure out different ways
- 24:28of improving. So, you know, send me a DM, just even say hello or suggestions
- 24:32on any other topics that you have.
- 24:34And yeah, I guess that is it. I will see you on the next one.
- 24:37Thank you for listening to today's episode of In The Loop brought to you by Qualcomm.