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The Favorites - Kentucky Derby Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites of the podcast. We are part
0:11
Speaker 1: of the Volume Podcast Network. I I I'm Chad Millman
0:14
Speaker 1: of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by
0:19
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Mike Compadre might beff professional
0:22
Speaker 1: better sign in hunt, Simon, Chad.
0:26
Speaker 2: How are we doing, dude?
0:28
Speaker 1: May first, you know what that means the calendar turns.
0:32
Speaker 1: The mar Key event on the betting calendar in May
0:38
Speaker 1: is the Kentucky Derby, which is this Saturday at Churchill
0:44
Speaker 1: Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The one hundred and fifty first
0:49
Speaker 1: running of the Roses, the greatest two minutes in sports,
0:55
Speaker 1: an American gambling event like none other. Here to help
1:00
Speaker 1: all of us bet and profit on all the festivities
1:03
Speaker 1: in Louisville. Because it's not just about the Derby. Is
1:05
Speaker 1: our Action Network horse racing contributor, one of the very
1:09
Speaker 1: best handicappers in the business, Chicago's finest. We do nothing
1:16
Speaker 1: if not promote anybody from the great city of Chicago.
1:21
Speaker 1: Mister Mike Conti, how are.
1:22
Speaker 3: You, buddy, I'm great. Thanks for having me, guys, super excited.
1:26
Speaker 3: One of my favorite weekends of the year.
1:28
Speaker 1: Listen before we get deep deep, into Mike and all
1:32
Speaker 1: his handicapping knowledge. Quick announcement, I want everyone this is big.
1:37
Speaker 1: This is very big. As a brand new everyone listening
1:39
Speaker 1: to the show needs to go subscribe to at Real
1:43
Speaker 1: Chad Milman on YouTube. That's right, I'm launching a YouTube channel.
1:48
Speaker 1: We're gonna air clips from the favorites. We're gonna air
1:50
Speaker 1: the show live there. It's gonna signlecast on Action and
1:54
Speaker 1: on at at Real Chad Milman. We're gonna have clips
1:59
Speaker 1: on a Egeler basis. I'm going to react to news
2:02
Speaker 1: and infro from the betting world. I'm going to throw
2:04
Speaker 1: up opinions. I'm going to share nuggets from the book
2:08
Speaker 1: I'm reporting, which anybody who likes anything about sports betting
2:13
Speaker 1: is going to enjoy. Like the nugget I had the
2:17
Speaker 1: other day, why do people call it handicapping? Go subscribe
2:21
Speaker 1: to at Real Chad Melman. We are just launching it.
2:25
Speaker 1: Get after it. I will remind you often at Real
2:29
Speaker 1: Chad Melman. Mike, we talked about this on the show
2:32
Speaker 1: the other day. Do you know why it's called handicapping?
2:37
Speaker 3: You know when you just said that chat, I was
2:39
Speaker 3: thinking about it and I, much to my mother's dismay.
2:43
Speaker 3: I could read a horse racing program before I could
2:45
Speaker 3: read a book. I actually don't know why it's called
2:48
Speaker 3: handicapping though.
2:49
Speaker 1: It's called handicapping because the guy who ran the Jockey
2:55
Speaker 1: Club in London in I think the late seventeen hundre
3:00
Speaker 1: undreds or eighteen hundreds, in order to make the races
3:04
Speaker 1: more interesting and get more action from betters, he would
3:10
Speaker 1: add weights to the horses that were the fastest to
3:14
Speaker 1: handicap them. And so they continue to call it handicapping
3:19
Speaker 1: throughout the history of all of sports betting. Isn't that cool?
3:24
Speaker 3: I love that. I had no idea.
3:25
Speaker 1: That's amazing, great little nugget, right, that's what Listen, Mike,
3:29
Speaker 1: you can get stuff like that at at Real Chad
3:31
Speaker 1: Moment on YouTube. So I hope you'll go subscribe. Can
3:34
Speaker 1: you explain for people you just said you knew how
3:39
Speaker 1: to read basically the daily racing form before you could
3:43
Speaker 1: read anything else. Explain how that happened.
3:48
Speaker 3: Yeah. So, growing up, my father owned a sports bar
3:53
Speaker 3: in New Haven, Connecticut, and you know, lo and behold,
3:57
Speaker 3: there was this is back in the day when you
3:59
Speaker 3: had to call in your bets and there was a
4:01
Speaker 3: phone booth in the corner of the bar, and that
4:04
Speaker 3: phone booth was reserved to go make your bets. And
4:07
Speaker 3: so every Saturday morning we'd go, we'd open up the
4:11
Speaker 3: bar and we'd sit there with the Daily Racing Form
4:14
Speaker 3: and learned how to read the papers from all of
4:16
Speaker 3: the cast of characters that were at the bar at
4:19
Speaker 3: eight am on a Saturday morning. And that was my
4:22
Speaker 3: first kind of soire into horse racing.
4:26
Speaker 1: God, that's amazing, you know what's great? A I love
4:29
Speaker 1: that it was New Haven, which is about forty five
4:31
Speaker 1: minutes from where I am in West Hartford, Connecticut. But
4:35
Speaker 1: since we're on the subject, the Daily Racing Form was
4:39
Speaker 1: like the key driver of the modern way sports betting
4:49
Speaker 1: happens in the country because the entire thing was about
4:53
Speaker 1: the dissemination of information and it was owned and there
4:56
Speaker 1: were literal wars. There were wars over the the control
5:00
Speaker 1: of this information gangster wars. Simon, you're shaking your head
5:04
Speaker 1: like you've either heard this or you're excited about it.
5:07
Speaker 1: Of people getting killed because to control what was basically
5:11
Speaker 1: the wire services that communicated who was winning and losing
5:16
Speaker 1: horse racing bets throughout the country. Mike, do you know
5:19
Speaker 1: this story.
5:21
Speaker 3: I actually did not know that story either, Simon.
5:23
Speaker 1: Do you know this story.
5:25
Speaker 2: I've heard about it just from Yeah, like what you're
5:28
Speaker 2: talking about old guys telling stories about horse racing.
5:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, so like the Annenberg media fortune. Annenberg, which I
5:35
Speaker 1: think you know, endows the USC Journalism School. It's a
5:39
Speaker 1: massive philanthropic organization in Philadelphia, Simon, because it owned the
5:46
Speaker 1: Annenberg family owned the Philadelphian Choir. The guy made his
5:49
Speaker 1: money as a circulation director for William Randolph Hurst and
5:56
Speaker 1: he was running newspapers in Chicago, in Milwaukee, Matt Mitchell
6:01
Speaker 1: in Milwaukee. And this was literally like bloody, bloody business.
6:06
Speaker 1: People were being killed to own street corners where they
6:10
Speaker 1: could distribute newspapers because it was so much money. Annenberg
6:14
Speaker 1: was really good at this. Hearst loved him. He made
6:17
Speaker 1: a lot of money, and then he bought the Daily
6:18
Speaker 1: Racing Form, and the Daily Racing Form became his primary
6:21
Speaker 1: driver of income as he grew a massive, massive media empire,
6:27
Speaker 1: and he had the Daily Racing Form for twenty years
6:32
Speaker 1: and this became the primary way through the telegraph that
6:37
Speaker 1: a lot of information was distributed for sports betters. It's
6:41
Speaker 1: a phenomenal story and everyone's going to get to read
6:44
Speaker 1: about it in my book when it comes out in
6:46
Speaker 1: August of twenty twenty seven. And now you get to
6:48
Speaker 1: see this clip on at Real Chad Nolan god on YouTube.
6:52
Speaker 1: I did that all off the top of my head.
6:54
Speaker 1: It just happened, Jenn.
6:56
Speaker 2: I feel like all you're doing right now is figuring
6:58
Speaker 2: out that America's literally built on guys with sports betting
7:00
Speaker 2: and a lot of killing. All these businesses in America
7:03
Speaker 2: you're finding out are like, oh yeah, this guy want
7:05
Speaker 2: to buy sports betting, this guy wanted by horse racing.
7:07
Speaker 2: It's like, what are you uncovering right now? It seems
7:10
Speaker 2: pretty incredible.
7:11
Speaker 1: It's pretty incredible simon how many businesses that we know
7:17
Speaker 1: of today as being legit businesses started as completely illegitimate
7:24
Speaker 1: businesses with deep, deep roots in criminal activity that over
7:29
Speaker 1: time evolved. And we can look at it right now,
7:31
Speaker 1: look at sports betting, look at a lot of the
7:34
Speaker 1: drug trade, like in every single capacity, some of these
7:38
Speaker 1: things over time, by the way alcohol distribution in the twenties,
7:42
Speaker 1: you know, then became something that was legit and legal,
7:46
Speaker 1: like all these things. So much of what powers the
7:51
Speaker 1: domestic economy started as stuff that was very very illicit.
7:55
Speaker 1: But what's not illicit, it's trying to win money. The
8:00
Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, Mike, the Derby is a different race for
8:03
Speaker 1: people who don't know, explain how it's different than you know,
8:07
Speaker 1: regular stakes races, than the other triple Crown races. Give
8:11
Speaker 1: people the differences.
8:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, first and foremost, a horse can only run
8:16
Speaker 3: in the Kentucky Derby one time in his or her life.
8:19
Speaker 3: It is only for three year old horses. I say
8:23
Speaker 3: his or hers. Most of the time it is for
8:27
Speaker 3: three year old colts, male horses. That's not to exclude
8:31
Speaker 3: the phillies, the females. They can run. It is always
8:35
Speaker 3: the first Saturday in May. Most of the time it
8:38
Speaker 3: is the most it's the deepest field. So there are
8:41
Speaker 3: twenty horses in every year's Kentucky Derby. Most of the
8:45
Speaker 3: time these horses at most have run against ten twelve
8:48
Speaker 3: other horses. So they get one chance at this they
8:52
Speaker 3: you know, you get one chance. It's the deepest field
8:55
Speaker 3: that they're going to run in, and up to this
8:56
Speaker 3: point in their careers, this is the longest race out
8:59
Speaker 3: of my in a quarter that these horses have ever run.
9:04
Speaker 1: Is it harder for these horses.
9:07
Speaker 3: Absolutely, you know, I think for a number of reasons. One,
9:10
Speaker 3: you talk about the crowd noise, right, horses definitely react
9:14
Speaker 3: to the noise. And when you think about, you know,
9:16
Speaker 3: how packed the stands are and how packed Churchill Downs is,
9:19
Speaker 3: the infield and the grand stands, there's a lot of
9:23
Speaker 3: noise for these horses. There's a lot going on. Again,
9:26
Speaker 3: it is a twenty horse field. A couple of years
9:29
Speaker 3: ago they actually just created a new starting gate for
9:32
Speaker 3: the Kentucky Derby so that the one hole wasn't at
9:34
Speaker 3: such a disadvantage starting on the turn. But with that
9:39
Speaker 3: now the starting gates are a little bit tighter, So
9:41
Speaker 3: now you've got a deeper field, a tighter starting gate,
9:44
Speaker 3: all of the noise going a mile and a quarter.
9:47
Speaker 3: And you know, these young three year old horses. You know,
9:51
Speaker 3: for those that don't know, horses cannot start racing until
9:54
Speaker 3: they're two, and most of them start racing, you know,
9:57
Speaker 3: mid summer of their two year old year. So you're
10:01
Speaker 3: talking about horses that have less than a year of
10:03
Speaker 3: total experience ever racing, that are now coming into the
10:07
Speaker 3: biggest race of their lives.
10:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, whenever I watch the Derby and you see them
10:13
Speaker 1: packing the horses into the gates. I always feel the
10:17
Speaker 1: worst for the horses that have to be in there
10:20
Speaker 1: early because even though it takes maybe two minutes total
10:26
Speaker 1: to get twenty horses into the gate, these are really
10:29
Speaker 1: young horses. And the horses in the number one position
10:35
Speaker 1: and the number two position versus if it goes all
10:38
Speaker 1: the way out to twenty, they're in there for a
10:41
Speaker 1: long time, and it seems like it starts to stress
10:43
Speaker 1: the animal a little bit like that in itself seemed
10:46
Speaker 1: like a disadvantage.
10:48
Speaker 3: Without a doubt, you know. And that's it's a very
10:50
Speaker 3: interesting thing, is like how does and you have to
10:52
Speaker 3: give the assistant starter. So those are the guys who
10:54
Speaker 3: are loading the horses and then they're standing in the
10:56
Speaker 3: starting gate with the horses. Their job is to help
10:59
Speaker 3: keep those horses calm. Obviously, the jockey, you know, is
11:02
Speaker 3: on board, and that's part of the jocks job. But
11:04
Speaker 3: you know, an overlooked aspect of this is the assistant
11:07
Speaker 3: starter helping these horses to stay calm while they load
11:11
Speaker 3: before they open the gates.
11:13
Speaker 1: When you watch this, uh, do you get a sense
11:17
Speaker 1: even from that moment, like if you've got a bet
11:21
Speaker 1: that is going to crash as as soon as the
11:25
Speaker 1: gates open, just by how the horses are reacting to
11:30
Speaker 1: being put in the starting.
11:30
Speaker 3: Gate without a doubt. I mean, there's a couple of
11:33
Speaker 3: things you look at right like how are the horses
11:35
Speaker 3: acting in the starting gate? Are they relaxed or you know,
11:37
Speaker 3: are they tossing their head around? The worst thing, obviously
11:40
Speaker 3: is if they have to back a horse out, because
11:42
Speaker 3: that's only going to delay the start even further. And
11:45
Speaker 3: then once you know those starting gates open, there's a
11:48
Speaker 3: huge roar from the crowd and you're talking about twenty
11:51
Speaker 3: horses all sprinting right to that first turn. You know,
11:55
Speaker 3: there are horses, especially the speed horses, that the race
11:58
Speaker 3: is one or lost in the first few jump for them,
12:00
Speaker 3: depending upon how well they break.
12:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, you just said, this is such a huge feel
12:04
Speaker 2: of twenty horses, Like what jumps out to you? Those
12:07
Speaker 2: horses you're just right away getting out of there. You
12:09
Speaker 2: don't only want to bet out of this field right now?
12:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, So you know, in terms of horses that I'm tossing,
12:15
Speaker 3: the first horse is the number thirteen publisher. He's a maiden,
12:19
Speaker 3: and for those unfamiliar, a maiden means that they've never
12:22
Speaker 3: won a race. So it is so unique that we
12:26
Speaker 3: have a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. In recent memory,
12:30
Speaker 3: I can't remember another maiden that ran in the Kentucky Derby.
12:34
Speaker 3: So first and foremost, I'll be tossing the number thirteen Publisher.
12:38
Speaker 3: I'm also tossing the number eleven Flying Mohawk, the number
12:42
Speaker 3: twelve East Avenue, who appears to be the pace of
12:45
Speaker 3: the race and the fastest early horse. I don't think
12:48
Speaker 3: that he's going to be able to last. The number
12:50
Speaker 3: twenty zeroen Almighty. The trainer actually didn't want to run
12:54
Speaker 3: in this race, but obviously every owner's dream is to
12:57
Speaker 3: get their horse to the Kentucky Derby. So the owners
13:01
Speaker 3: of number twenty on Almighty are the ones who really
13:03
Speaker 3: pushed for this race because of that. If the trainer
13:06
Speaker 3: doesn't want to really be in the race, I don't
13:08
Speaker 3: really want that horse on my ticket. Number fifteen Render Judgment.
13:12
Speaker 3: The cool story to number fifteen Render Judgment is he
13:15
Speaker 3: is Toby Keith, Rest in Peace. He owns a stable
13:20
Speaker 3: of horses, and did own a stable of horses that's
13:22
Speaker 3: still in his name. Render Judgment is one of Toby
13:25
Speaker 3: Keith's the first runner for Toby in the Derby, but
13:30
Speaker 3: I am tossing that horse. The number one Citizen Bull
13:33
Speaker 3: is another horse that I will be tossing. And then
13:36
Speaker 3: there are two Japanese horses in this race, one of
13:38
Speaker 3: whom I like. The other one I'm tossing. The one
13:40
Speaker 3: that I'm tossing is number six, Admire Daytona.
13:45
Speaker 1: Bob Baffert coming back, been away a while? What do
13:51
Speaker 1: handicappers think about Baffort? What do they think of his history?
13:55
Speaker 1: Both the good and the bad. For those who don't know,
13:58
Speaker 1: Bob Baffert obviously decade long, decade's long career as a
14:02
Speaker 1: legendary trainer, winning Triple Crown races, but also suspended the
14:06
Speaker 1: past few years because of drug because he was drugging horses.
14:12
Speaker 1: Is that right? Am I allowed to say that?
14:13
Speaker 3: Yeah?
14:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, because he was drugging horses. So this is
14:17
Speaker 1: his first year back. Do you have an opinion on
14:21
Speaker 1: Baffort as a trainer, both the good and the bad?
14:25
Speaker 3: Look this is so. Bafford's got two horses in here.
14:27
Speaker 3: One of them is one of the horses that I'm tossing,
14:29
Speaker 3: number one Citizen Bowl. The other one we'll talk about
14:31
Speaker 3: in a little while. Is number four Rodriguez? Look like
14:36
Speaker 3: you said, Chad, Bob Bafford is one of the greatest
14:39
Speaker 3: horse trainers of all time. He's had two Triple Crown
14:41
Speaker 3: winners in terms of winning the actual Triple Crown, not
14:45
Speaker 3: just winning the Derby or one of the other Triple
14:47
Speaker 3: Crown races. He's a top notch trainer. You know, Do
14:52
Speaker 3: I love Bob Bafford, No, But he's a trainer that
14:56
Speaker 3: you know when he's putting a horse in the race,
14:58
Speaker 3: that the horse is going to most likely be live.
15:01
Speaker 3: And so you've got to consider even though I'm throwing
15:04
Speaker 3: out one of his two runners in.
15:05
Speaker 1: Here, here's a random question. Can you make a living
15:11
Speaker 1: as a handicapper of horses these days?
15:17
Speaker 3: There are people that do? You know? For me, it's
15:20
Speaker 3: much more of the fun and the hobby of it,
15:23
Speaker 3: But there are definitely people that make a living handicapping
15:26
Speaker 3: the horses, right, And these weekends are the best weekends
15:29
Speaker 3: because you mentioned before, Chad, you know, graded steaks races
15:32
Speaker 3: are the premier races of horse racing, and there are
15:36
Speaker 3: three graded stakes races, Grade ones, which is the highest level,
15:39
Speaker 3: Grade two, and Grade three those are your top tier races,
15:44
Speaker 3: and that's where, in my opinion, you get horses that
15:47
Speaker 3: most likely are going to run to their form. You have,
15:50
Speaker 3: you can draw a better opinion of it, you know,
15:53
Speaker 3: But on any given Thursday afternoon when they're running a
15:57
Speaker 3: you know, a claiming five thousand dollars race, meaning that
15:59
Speaker 3: if any of us showed up to the track with
16:01
Speaker 3: five thousand dollars, we could buy the horse out of
16:03
Speaker 3: that race. Those races obviously much harder to handicap, but
16:07
Speaker 3: there are guys and gals that do make a living
16:09
Speaker 3: a handicap and the horses.
16:13
Speaker 1: Journalism, sovereignty. It sounds like this is a theme, like
16:19
Speaker 1: we're turning this into a politics podcast about the state
16:23
Speaker 1: of the country. It's actually the name of two of
16:27
Speaker 1: the horses that have the shortest dots currently as we
16:31
Speaker 1: head to post coming out of Whisper Wednesday, Sandman, do
16:38
Speaker 1: you have an opinion on any of these horses and
16:42
Speaker 1: their chances to win the Derby or do you think
16:45
Speaker 1: they're overpriced and you're going to stay away?
16:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'll start with the last one that you mentioned, Sandman.
16:51
Speaker 3: A couple of months ago. He was a top my
16:54
Speaker 3: selections for the Derby. The interesting thing with Sandman a
16:58
Speaker 3: couple of things. One a closer meaning that he's going
17:01
Speaker 3: to do his best running late. He's not going to
17:04
Speaker 3: be involved in the early stages of this race. So
17:07
Speaker 3: if you bet Sandman and he's towards the back, that's
17:10
Speaker 3: actually where you want him to be. You're hoping for
17:13
Speaker 3: a fast, hot pace up front so that he has
17:16
Speaker 3: something to run into. The challenge, as we talked about,
17:20
Speaker 3: is in a twenty horse field. That means he's going
17:22
Speaker 3: to need to work out a trip. Not always the
17:24
Speaker 3: easiest thing to do, but I do see him, you know,
17:28
Speaker 3: flying late and being in the mix. The other interesting
17:32
Speaker 3: note on Sandman is he's breaking from the seventeen post.
17:36
Speaker 3: The seventeen post is the only post that has never
17:40
Speaker 3: won in the Kentucky Derby, so there's a little bit
17:43
Speaker 3: of a curse and a jinx to the seventeen post.
17:45
Speaker 3: So just something interesting there. Journalism. You mentioned he is
17:49
Speaker 3: the morning line favorite. He is, you know, from all aspects,
17:54
Speaker 3: he looks to be the best horse in this field.
17:57
Speaker 3: Am I going to allow him to beat me? No?
17:59
Speaker 3: But what I will say is that in his last
18:02
Speaker 3: three starts he's only beaten a combined twelve horses his
18:07
Speaker 3: last three starts, they were five horse fields. Yes, he
18:10
Speaker 3: won all three of those races. He's going to need
18:12
Speaker 3: to beat nineteen others come Saturday at post time. And so,
18:17
Speaker 3: you know, I don't know as though that I love
18:19
Speaker 3: that for him. And he found himself in some traffic
18:22
Speaker 3: trouble in a five horse race. Imagine what it's going
18:25
Speaker 3: to be in a twenty horse field. But again, I
18:28
Speaker 3: do feel as though that he's the most talented horse
18:31
Speaker 3: on paper and visually, and all signs are saying, you know,
18:35
Speaker 3: he's training extremely well and he's ready to fire. But
18:39
Speaker 3: you don't have a top jockey trainer combination for journalism
18:43
Speaker 3: with trainer Mike McCarthy and jockey Umberto Respulli.
18:47
Speaker 1: What do you mean You're not going to allow journalism
18:51
Speaker 1: to beat you.
18:53
Speaker 3: What I mean by that is in the way that
18:55
Speaker 3: I structure my bets, is that I will be including
18:57
Speaker 3: journalism in all of my bets. Nothing worse than when
19:01
Speaker 3: you handicap a race, and you handicap it pretty accurately
19:05
Speaker 3: and you're like, well, this is the best horse in
19:07
Speaker 3: the race. I'm gonna look elsewhere to try to increase
19:10
Speaker 3: the value for myself in the race. But I don't
19:13
Speaker 3: want that horse that I genuinely believe to be the
19:16
Speaker 3: most talented, best horse in the field to beat me,
19:19
Speaker 3: to ruin my bets right, to blow my bets up,
19:22
Speaker 3: So I will be including him in everything that I'm doing.
19:26
Speaker 1: Chad just wanted to make sure so I understand.
19:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's interesting too, the Derby. The last three
19:32
Speaker 2: years we've had some long shot horses win. Do you
19:34
Speaker 2: have any bets for this season, like long shuts you're
19:36
Speaker 2: taking a shot on, or do you think it's gonna
19:38
Speaker 2: be heavily chalk this year. The one year I remember, Chad,
19:40
Speaker 2: was the year I think we were That was the
19:43
Speaker 2: same year we went down to Kentucky ourselves. The guy
19:46
Speaker 2: was like added that day won the Derby. I mean
19:49
Speaker 2: that was like the craziest one ever where some cross
19:53
Speaker 2: right hit that at like one hundred and twenty to one,
19:55
Speaker 2: betted down to I think what it closed that like
19:57
Speaker 2: you remember was.
19:58
Speaker 3: Seventy eighty one.
20:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, y I hit it.
20:01
Speaker 2: The books couldn't believe it. They moved it. They still
20:04
Speaker 2: at that and it guy won it. So I would
20:06
Speaker 2: love you for any long shots this year.
20:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, So you know, and to your point, Simon, I
20:10
Speaker 3: mean the last four years, we had Mandaloon in twenty
20:13
Speaker 3: twenty one at twenty six to one, we had rich
20:15
Speaker 3: Strike in twenty twenty two at eighty to one, we
20:18
Speaker 3: had Mage in twenty three at fifteen to one, and
20:21
Speaker 3: last year we had missed a Dan at eighteen to one.
20:24
Speaker 3: Interestingly enough, my top choice in this year's Kentucky Derby
20:29
Speaker 3: is the number seven Luxor Cafe, who is fifteen to one. So,
20:33
Speaker 3: you know, trying to continue with that trend before the
20:36
Speaker 3: last four years, I believe it was like eight straight
20:39
Speaker 3: years that we had the favorite win. So you know,
20:42
Speaker 3: it's either been favorite or pretty heavy long shot. And
20:45
Speaker 3: the thing is, in a twenty horse field, even a
20:47
Speaker 3: favorite typically you're going to get three four to one.
20:51
Speaker 3: And in you know, in typical sports betting, you look
20:53
Speaker 3: at three or four to one and we salivate, right
20:56
Speaker 3: in horse racing, you look at three or four to
20:57
Speaker 3: one and you're like, eh, that's okay because of these
21:01
Speaker 3: the field sizes and what we've got going. So yeah,
21:04
Speaker 3: but you know, to your point, Simon, the number seven
21:07
Speaker 3: lux Or Cafe, he is coming over from Japan and
21:11
Speaker 3: so he has run in some pretty high quality races
21:15
Speaker 3: over in Japan. He's run against deeper fields ten twelve,
21:19
Speaker 3: sixteen horse fields and he's been able to win. He
21:23
Speaker 3: also the father or the sire of Luxor Cafe is
21:28
Speaker 3: American Pharaoh who back in twenty fifteen won the Kentucky Derby,
21:31
Speaker 3: went on to win the Preakness and then won the
21:33
Speaker 3: Belmont to break the Triple Crown streak. So he's bred
21:37
Speaker 3: to get the distance, and so he's the horse that
21:40
Speaker 3: I'll be using on top. And then in terms of
21:42
Speaker 3: some other long shots to consider, the number three, Final
21:47
Speaker 3: Gambit is a price that I really like. He's another
21:50
Speaker 3: one of these horses like we talked about Sandman, Final
21:53
Speaker 3: Gambit is going to do his best running late, so
21:56
Speaker 3: he is going to be far back early. So when
21:58
Speaker 3: you see him far back early, don't mail it in.
22:01
Speaker 3: Know that he's going to be coming late, which is
22:03
Speaker 3: really exciting. We talked about Bob Bafford before he's got
22:06
Speaker 3: the number four Rodriguez at twelve to one. Rodriguez ran
22:10
Speaker 3: in a race called the Wood Memorial about a month
22:14
Speaker 3: ago now and won that race fairly easily. He had
22:19
Speaker 3: a pretty easy early pace and ended up opening up
22:24
Speaker 3: in the lane on those horses and didn't really appear
22:27
Speaker 3: to be asked. So those are the three horses that
22:30
Speaker 3: interest me the most at longer odds.
22:35
Speaker 1: Hold on A second luxer Cafe is the child of
22:43
Speaker 1: American Pharaoh. How many children of American Pharaoh have run
22:49
Speaker 1: in the Triple Crown since a three year old? Since
22:56
Speaker 1: since American Pharaoh could have sired a three year old,
22:58
Speaker 1: which would have been eighteen or nineteen, So the past
23:02
Speaker 1: six years have any children of American Pharaoh run in
23:07
Speaker 1: the Triple Crown?
23:08
Speaker 3: I do not believe.
23:10
Speaker 1: So how is this not a bigger story?
23:13
Speaker 3: I agree? And you know it was funny because when
23:15
Speaker 3: American Pharaoh first went to be a sire and in
23:19
Speaker 3: the breeding shed, he had one of the highest prices
23:22
Speaker 3: in order to breed to him. That price has come
23:25
Speaker 3: down because none of his offspring have won one of
23:28
Speaker 3: these three Triple Crown races. So it's only a matter
23:31
Speaker 3: of time before we get an American pharaoh sired horse
23:36
Speaker 3: to win the Triple Crown. I loved American Pharaoh when
23:39
Speaker 3: he won in twenty fifteen, so again, definitely not gonna
23:42
Speaker 3: miss out. When you have a horse at fifteen to one,
23:45
Speaker 3: like lux or cafete.
23:46
Speaker 1: Do we have any idea how much Luxer cafe cost
23:51
Speaker 1: to be made.
23:53
Speaker 3: Let's see, let's see if they have it listed. He no,
23:58
Speaker 3: because it was a private purchase, so don't know how
24:02
Speaker 3: much you know it cost to acquire.
24:05
Speaker 1: How much was American Pharaoh getting per pop? You know?
24:09
Speaker 3: So he when he was first in the breeding shed,
24:12
Speaker 3: it was like one hundred and fifty thousand dollars per
24:15
Speaker 3: live offspring for American Pharaoh. It's now down under one
24:20
Speaker 3: hundred thousand, but it's still crazy to think just to
24:23
Speaker 3: breed to American Pharaoh that you're spending that kind of money.
24:28
Speaker 1: I feel like for me to get my kids off
24:33
Speaker 1: my hands, I might have to pay someone one hundred
24:35
Speaker 1: and fifty thousand dollars. In fact, if we're talking about
24:38
Speaker 1: college that it's more than that, like usually do double.
24:43
Speaker 1: So that's quite that's quite the package for American Pharaoh, Simon,
24:49
Speaker 1: it's pretty good.
24:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a bad stud feed, but it's also pretty interesting.
24:54
Speaker 2: The fact that what you just brought up, it's like genetics.
24:57
Speaker 2: No one's cracked the code. They're just it's still doing
25:01
Speaker 2: the same thing they did, you know, back when they
25:04
Speaker 2: first established breeding horses, and was Saudi Arabia who takes crown?
25:09
Speaker 2: Like is that who? Yeah, they take So it's just
25:11
Speaker 2: funny that it's been thousands of years, Chad and it's
25:14
Speaker 2: still the same old nothing's changed.
25:16
Speaker 1: Dude, you're not joking. Literally. I did this story for
25:22
Speaker 1: Sports Illustrated in nineteen ninety eight. Okay, like Mike, Mike
25:28
Speaker 1: played football at Ithaca and this is like when Mike
25:31
Speaker 1: was still playing pee wee in you know, in New Haven,
25:37
Speaker 1: but which is probably a rough pee wee league, if
25:39
Speaker 1: I got to say. But like I went out to
25:42
Speaker 1: simon a horse farm in outside Philadelphia because like, there's
25:47
Speaker 1: a ton of farms with horses outside Philly. And the
25:51
Speaker 1: story was all about humans as as runners, especially in
25:58
Speaker 1: speed races, have been able to evolve over the one
26:03
Speaker 1: hundred or so years that people have been running the
26:05
Speaker 1: one hundred meters dash or whatever it is, Like they
26:08
Speaker 1: have gotten faster, right, They've improved their training, they have
26:10
Speaker 1: improved their form. You know, bodies have evolved over time
26:15
Speaker 1: to allow humans to run faster. Horses basically run the same,
26:21
Speaker 1: and nothing has changed in the evolution of horses. Mike,
26:27
Speaker 1: do you have any idea why that is like not
26:30
Speaker 1: to put you on the spot as sort of an
26:32
Speaker 1: equine specialist. But isn't that strange that to Simon's point,
26:37
Speaker 1: nothing in this sport has changed. They cannot figure out
26:40
Speaker 1: how to draft a quarterback, they cannot figure out how
26:43
Speaker 1: to make a triple crown winner, and they cannot figure
26:46
Speaker 1: out how to get these horses to run faster.
26:49
Speaker 3: It chatted, So it really is. It's wild. You know.
26:52
Speaker 3: One of my favorite horse racing movie, Secretariat, so Ogden Phipps,
26:56
Speaker 3: who is you know, a predominant horse breeder and owner.
27:01
Speaker 3: In the movie, he talks about and obviously based on
27:03
Speaker 3: you know, real life, he talks about when Penny Chenery
27:08
Speaker 3: acquired Secretariat. He had there was a coin flip that
27:12
Speaker 3: they did to choose. There were two horses that they
27:15
Speaker 3: could choose from between Ogden Phipps and you know, mister
27:18
Speaker 3: Chennery's farm and Ogden Phipps chose the horse that was
27:22
Speaker 3: bred to get the distance, that was bred to be
27:25
Speaker 3: this great horse. Yet Penny wanted Secretariat. She got him
27:29
Speaker 3: by luck of a coin flip, and Ogden Phipps, you know,
27:33
Speaker 3: sat there and he said in the movie it was
27:35
Speaker 3: something I forget the exact line, but it was something like,
27:37
Speaker 3: you know, the best looking horse, the prettiest horse in
27:40
Speaker 3: his barn, but you know, couldn't outrun his accountants. And
27:43
Speaker 3: so there's just so much that goes to chance when
27:46
Speaker 3: you're talking about, you know, breeding these animals, and at
27:48
Speaker 3: the end of the day, you have to remember they
27:50
Speaker 3: are animals. We don't always know what's going on, you know,
27:54
Speaker 3: we can't they can't speak to us obviously, So it
27:56
Speaker 3: is just such an interesting phenomenon to think about.
28:00
Speaker 1: My favorite horse racing movie is Seabiscuit, and I happen
28:06
Speaker 1: to see Seabiscuit like right after I think our first
28:13
Speaker 1: son was born, and there's like some child related tragedy
28:18
Speaker 1: in the movie. I don't want to ruin it for
28:20
Speaker 1: people who over the past twenty years haven't seen it.
28:23
Speaker 1: And my wife and I was the first night out
28:26
Speaker 1: after we had had our kid, and I remember my
28:29
Speaker 1: wife and I are in the theater full balling like
28:33
Speaker 1: in the movie because of what happens to the kid
28:37
Speaker 1: in the movie, and we are just in agony. We're like,
28:41
Speaker 1: I can't believe this is our first night out. But
28:44
Speaker 1: Seabiscuit brilliant book great movie, Simon, do you have a
28:49
Speaker 1: favorite horse racing movie?
28:51
Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna say, is Sea Biscuit? Is that
28:54
Speaker 2: the anomaly of like a horse that genetically had a
28:56
Speaker 2: huge heart?
28:58
Speaker 3: Isn't that that secretary of secretariat?
29:01
Speaker 2: So isn't that what you're speaking about chat where it's
29:03
Speaker 2: like we've had one like that, we.
29:07
Speaker 1: Know about one genetic freak freak. Yeah, Simon, you and
29:11
Speaker 1: I are the secretariats of sports betting podcasting. All right,
29:15
Speaker 1: so you've given us long shots, We've gone through the
29:20
Speaker 1: current shortest odds. You know. Reminder of everybody, this is
29:24
Speaker 1: all parimutual. It can all change. These odds are constantly changing, Mike.
29:30
Speaker 1: One of my favorite sayings in all of sports betting
29:33
Speaker 1: it's becoming less and less relevant, is whisper Wednesday. For
29:36
Speaker 1: those who don't know, it's sort of after horses have
29:41
Speaker 1: had a couple days of running and training and practice
29:44
Speaker 1: at the derby, sort of around the stables, all the
29:50
Speaker 1: handicappers start talking on Wednesday. That's a really important day
29:54
Speaker 1: for practice runs, and so odds start to change more aggressively.
30:00
Speaker 1: Have you heard anything about horses that are getting whispered
30:03
Speaker 1: about that hadn't otherwise been.
30:06
Speaker 3: I mean obviously Journalism, right, everybody has said that they
30:10
Speaker 3: love this horse. He's looked really good. The other interesting
30:14
Speaker 3: horse is Burnham Square, the number nine. He's a horse
30:18
Speaker 3: who is gelded, which means that he can no longer
30:22
Speaker 3: have offspring. You can surmize what that really means, but
30:27
Speaker 3: he can no longer have offspring. He's been gelded, yet
30:30
Speaker 3: he has still been, as they've been saying, kicking the
30:34
Speaker 3: barn doors down. He is a somewhat of a quirky horse,
30:37
Speaker 3: but one who just loves being out on the track.
30:40
Speaker 3: So there has been some talk about how he's been training.
30:43
Speaker 3: He's a very aggressive horse. But a lot of the
30:46
Speaker 3: reports are coming back that Journalism looks fantastic, has been
30:50
Speaker 3: training great, and there are a lot of people that
30:52
Speaker 3: are very high on this horse.
30:54
Speaker 1: All right, so you know, we can bet Journalism. By Saturday,
30:59
Speaker 1: probably we'd be down to two to one. So let's
31:03
Speaker 1: have a little bit of fun. You don't have to
31:05
Speaker 1: bet just you know, win play show. You don't have
31:09
Speaker 1: to bet on one horse to just win. There are
31:13
Speaker 1: a lot of exotics you can bet in any horse race.
31:17
Speaker 1: But obviously more people paying attention to the derby. It
31:20
Speaker 1: give us some ideas on what you would bet for
31:23
Speaker 1: exactas trifectas. You just talked about how you'll keep journalism
31:27
Speaker 1: in most of your bets so you can't get beat
31:29
Speaker 1: by it, But explain a little bit of what that
31:30
Speaker 1: means someone's just listening in, and then what kind of
31:34
Speaker 1: boxes you would put together.
31:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, So an exacta is betting on the first the
31:39
Speaker 3: top two finishers, so first and second place. So you know,
31:43
Speaker 3: in terms of normal sports betting, it's almost like a
31:46
Speaker 3: parlay within one game if you will. It's a same
31:48
Speaker 3: game parlay if you will. And so an exacta the
31:51
Speaker 3: first two finishers. And again, as you mentioned, Chad, you
31:54
Speaker 3: can choose multiple horses in each spot, in first and second.
31:59
Speaker 3: So the way I'm going to build my exacta this
32:02
Speaker 3: year is I'm going to have the number seven lux
32:04
Speaker 3: Or Cafe and the number eight Journalism in the first
32:07
Speaker 3: place spot, and then in the second place spot, I'm
32:10
Speaker 3: going to have the number three who is Final Gambit,
32:13
Speaker 3: the number four who is Rodriguez, the seven lux Or Cafe,
32:18
Speaker 3: the eight Journalism, the ten Grande and the seventeen Sandman.
32:24
Speaker 3: If you make that as a one dollar bet. It's
32:27
Speaker 3: only going to cost you ten bucks. The average Derby
32:30
Speaker 3: Exacta payout is in the multiple hundreds of dollars, So
32:33
Speaker 3: you're investing ten bucks to you know, ideally get ten
32:37
Speaker 3: twenty thirty to one odds on that bet. What about trifectus, Yeah,
32:43
Speaker 3: so trifecta similar to an EXACTA top three finishers. This
32:48
Speaker 3: you can do for a fifty cent base bet. So
32:51
Speaker 3: my trifecta ticket is going to look like this, It's
32:54
Speaker 3: going to look like seven to eight in first In
32:57
Speaker 3: the second position it will be three seven eight nine
33:03
Speaker 3: ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. And then in the third position,
33:08
Speaker 3: just gonna repeat that second position three four seven eight
33:13
Speaker 3: nine ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. Sounds like a lot, but
33:18
Speaker 3: for fifty cents, it's a fifty six dollars bet. The
33:23
Speaker 3: average Derby Trifecta pays over twenty two hundred dollars, So
33:28
Speaker 3: you're talking about a fifty six dollars bet where you're
33:31
Speaker 3: gonna get about twenty to one on your bet.
33:35
Speaker 1: Oh my god, we are so in. Simon is punching
33:37
Speaker 1: that in as we speak, because who doesn't like a
33:40
Speaker 1: big powd We are in a big payout fever here
33:45
Speaker 1: in the United States. We love betting a little and
33:48
Speaker 1: getting a lot. We like winning the lottery. We're gonna
33:51
Speaker 1: do it, am I right, Simon?
33:53
Speaker 3: Have you ever hit one of them?
33:54
Speaker 2: As the track chat, I've honestly only ever hitted at
33:57
Speaker 2: a dog park. I've ever hit a I've hitited a
33:59
Speaker 2: dog track. I've never hit it at a horse track.
34:02
Speaker 1: I've never hit it anywhere.
34:04
Speaker 2: No. Oh man, it's a high of eies.
34:07
Speaker 3: It's the best.
34:09
Speaker 1: Hey, Simon, did you know that Mike County I just
34:12
Speaker 1: mentioned he played football at Ithaca. We hear it. The
34:15
Speaker 1: favorites want to shout you out because you are a
34:18
Speaker 1: sports legend. Back in twenty eleven, you had an eighty
34:23
Speaker 1: eight yard pick six to become the first player in
34:26
Speaker 1: Ithaca Bombers football history to score three defensive touchdowns in
34:34
Speaker 1: your career. I know Matt Mitchell wants me to say
34:38
Speaker 1: that on behalf of all Upstate New York's scumbags like himself.
34:42
Speaker 1: Congrats on your status as a regional legend. For that alone,
34:48
Speaker 1: anything you sire is worth one hundred and fifty thousand dollars.
34:53
Speaker 3: Well, thank you, guys. It was a fun four years
34:57
Speaker 3: at Ithaca and was lucky to have some opportunities to
35:02
Speaker 3: see the end zone from the defensive side of the ball.
35:05
Speaker 2: Fantastic we get we do they make you watch road
35:08
Speaker 2: Trip the movie to get into Ithaca?
35:10
Speaker 3: Is that part of it?
35:11
Speaker 2: Is that part of it?
35:12
Speaker 3: You know it? You know it. You've got to become
35:14
Speaker 3: accustomed to road Trip and what's going on?
35:16
Speaker 1: Gotta wait? Was road Trip? Amy Smart?
35:19
Speaker 3: Yeah?
35:19
Speaker 2: I had a huge question on her back then. Yeah,
35:21
Speaker 2: fam get in famous videotape scene with her great call Chad.
35:25
Speaker 1: It's impossible not to have a crush on Amy Smart
35:27
Speaker 1: no matter how old you are. Once you've seen road
35:31
Speaker 1: Trip listen. If you're looking for even more Derby coverage,
35:35
Speaker 1: check out the Betting preview of the Action Network podcast
35:37
Speaker 1: with Mike and our longtime horse racing handicapper Sean Zarillo
35:42
Speaker 1: that's available now. Also, don't forget go subscribe at Real
35:48
Speaker 1: Chad Milman on YouTube. Simon and I Real return with
35:52
Speaker 1: our next episode of the Favorites Tuesday on the Action
35:54
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page. Download from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you
35:57
Speaker 1: get your pods rate would you subscribe? Leave us five stars?
35:59
Speaker 1: Say if you want feedback is again until next time.
36:02
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36:13
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