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SEC 2026 Predictions and Best Bets · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

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  Speaker 1: On today's show, we're previewing and predicting the twenty twenty
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  Speaker 1: six SEC Football Conference. Welcome in. This is winn He
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  Speaker 1: Cures Everything, a college football podcast. I'm your host, Gary
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  Speaker 1: Siegers at Gary WCE on all different socials and today
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  Speaker 1: we're diving into the SEC for twenty twenty six. And
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  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be honest with you, this is a weird
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  Speaker 1: version of this conference, maybe the weirdest that I've broken
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  Speaker 1: down in a long time. There's a lot of questions here,
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  Speaker 1: and it's not because it's down. It's not down. It's
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  Speaker 1: still absolutely loaded. Like, don't let the talking heads fool you.
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  Speaker 1: Sp plus has ten SEC teams in their national Top twenty.
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  Speaker 1: Like thirteen of the sixteen programs are sitting at seventy
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  Speaker 1: percent or better to make a bowl game. Even the
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  Speaker 1: teams we're gonna rank near the bottom have enough talent
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  Speaker 1: on their rosters to wreck somebody Saturday if the matchup
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  Speaker 1: line's upright, which is what makes the conference so tough now,
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  Speaker 1: especially since they moved to nine conference games. So here's
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  Speaker 1: the actual problem. It's a fun one, right, where's the monster,
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  Speaker 1: Like there's where's a team that you rank as the
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  Speaker 1: the clearly best team in the country, Like nobody's touching them.
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  Speaker 1: I don't see that in this conference. Texas has got arts,
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  Speaker 1: manning and an offense that looks like it was built
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  Speaker 1: in a lab somewhere. Maybe they might be staring down
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  Speaker 1: one of the harder schedules in college football. And there's
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  Speaker 1: still questions about Steve Sarkisian, Right, George has got the
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  Speaker 1: best mix of defense, stability and a favorable slate. But
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  Speaker 1: we're we're kind of asking the same question that we
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  Speaker 1: asked last year, Like it is this offense actually capable
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  Speaker 1: of creating explosive plays when the game gets tight, like
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  Speaker 1: they did it against Tennessee. There were some other problems
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  Speaker 1: out there like it, you know, LSU went out and
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  Speaker 1: spent like a like an eighteen year old that just
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  Speaker 1: got handed a million dollars, right the Howard Lange Kevin
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  Speaker 1: brought in Sam Levit at quarterback, but they basically rebuilt
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  Speaker 1: the entire supporting cast around him. Texas A and M
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  Speaker 1: they won eleven games last year. They bring their quarterback back,
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  Speaker 1: they got one of the better overall rosters in America,
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  Speaker 1: and nobody's really talking about them like a real championship team,
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  Speaker 1: and then you keep going down the list. Alabama might
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  Speaker 1: be sitting on a future superstar quarterback. Ole Miss has
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  Speaker 1: already got a superstar quarterback who took them to a
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  Speaker 1: playoff semi final last year. Oklahoma might roll out of
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  Speaker 1: top ten defense. And every single one of these teams
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  Speaker 1: has at least one crack in the foundation that could
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  Speaker 1: turn a championship year into an eight and four year.
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  Speaker 1: That's the SEC in twenty twenty six. Basically, in a nutshell,
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  Speaker 1: there might not be one unbeatable team in this league.
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  Speaker 1: But what there might be is ten teams capable of
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  Speaker 1: beating the brakes off each other on the right Saturday.
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  Speaker 1: And as I mentioned earlier, the conference is moving to
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  Speaker 1: nine conference games this year. That means everybody gets exactly
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  Speaker 1: one by week, less recovery time, fewer places to hide
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  Speaker 1: a banged up roster, almost zero margin for a bad Saturday.
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  Speaker 1: So this isn't a who's got the most talent conference anymore.
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  Speaker 1: It's a it's a schedule conference, it's a depth conference,
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  Speaker 1: it's offensive line right, and more than anything is shaping
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  Speaker 1: up to be a quarterback development conference. We're gonna get
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  Speaker 1: into all of it today. The Tiers the new coaches,
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  Speaker 1: the quarterback rooms, the best units in the league, the
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  Speaker 1: brutal schedules, the race to Atlanta, and yeah, the betting
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  Speaker 1: markets too, because you know that's what we do here.
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  Speaker 1: So let's get into it all right. The simplest way
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  Speaker 1: I can describe this league right now is incredibly balanced
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  Speaker 1: at an extremely high level. Right Georgia is probably the
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  Speaker 1: safest team on the board. Texas probably has the highest
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  Speaker 1: offensive ceiling in the country. But right behind those two,
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  Speaker 1: you can make a real case for LSU, Alabama A,
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  Speaker 1: and m Ole miss Oklahoma all punching a ticket to Atlanta.
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  Speaker 1: That's six teams with a legitimate path. And then there's
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  Speaker 1: the next tier down, which is deeper than I think
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  Speaker 1: a lot of people realize. Tennessee is projected to have
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  Speaker 1: one of the best offenses in America, sends their quarterback.
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  Speaker 1: Missouri has built a real foundation under Eli Drinkwitz. They
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  Speaker 1: bring back experienced offensive line, but they're bringing in a
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  Speaker 1: new quarterback in Austin Simmons. You know, who knows what
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  Speaker 1: that's going to look like. I think by now, if
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  Speaker 1: you've been following the show, you know I'm not a
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  Speaker 1: big fan of their offensive coordinator higher, but it's Eli's offense.
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  Speaker 1: We'll trust it. So Florida they got talent all over
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  Speaker 1: the roster. They just hired John Summerle. I think he's
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  Speaker 1: going to come in and change the culture there pretty quickly.
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  Speaker 1: South Carolina's got Leonora Sellers, Nick Harbd, Dylan Stewart. Like
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  Speaker 1: you got three legitimate stars there and a deep roster.
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  Speaker 1: I mean they are over what fifty percent of fifty
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  Speaker 1: five percent as far as the latest what's the mind
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  Speaker 1: went blank? Blue Chip Rush show? There you go. Last
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  Speaker 1: year they were under fifty percent. This year they're over
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  Speaker 1: fifty five percent, So we'll see what that means. Auburn
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  Speaker 1: Byron Brown Alex golesh flipping that thing from USF over
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  Speaker 1: to Auburn. Uh. They are trying to really get Auburn
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  Speaker 1: back on track. Vanderbilt hadn't even brought them up coming
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  Speaker 1: off a ten win season. They're at a point now
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  Speaker 1: where Bowl eligibility isn't like a far off dream anymore.
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  Speaker 1: I think there could be some growing pains with a
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  Speaker 1: freshman quarterback and you're losing the engine that kind of
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  Speaker 1: made that thing go so but think about it for
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  Speaker 1: a second. The gap between the second best team and
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  Speaker 1: this conference and the tenth best team. I don't think
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  Speaker 1: it's that big at all. Like eleven SEC teams are
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  Speaker 1: projected somewhere between four and six conference wins. Eleven. Half
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  Speaker 1: of the league's games last year were decided by one score.
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  Speaker 1: Now tack on an extra conference game for everybody take
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  Speaker 1: away that second by week. I mean it's a recipe
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  Speaker 1: for chaos. We could spend the entire fall arguing about
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  Speaker 1: whether a nine to three SEC team deserves a playoff
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  Speaker 1: spot over an eleven to one team from somewhere else,
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  Speaker 1: and the committee might have to make that call more
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  Speaker 1: than once this year. And look, the SEC hasn't won
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  Speaker 1: the last three national titles. The Big Ten has taken
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  Speaker 1: all three of those. SEC teams have only grabbed two
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  Speaker 1: of the eight semi final spots across the first two
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  Speaker 1: years of the expanded playoff. That doesn't mean that the
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  Speaker 1: league got weak. The underlying numbers still say this is
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  Speaker 1: the strongest conference top to bottom in the sport. Even
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  Speaker 1: the bottom tier teams here would be competitive in pretty
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  Speaker 1: much every other league. The real question is whether the
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  Speaker 1: SEC has a team built to win three or four
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  Speaker 1: straight playoff games in a row, or if it's just
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  Speaker 1: gonna have to if it's got a pile of really
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  Speaker 1: good teams that just beat each other up before the
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  Speaker 1: postseason even starts. I think the biggest structural change here
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  Speaker 1: is pretty obvious that the eight conference games becoming nine,
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  Speaker 1: No new members, nobody left. It's this ain't a realignment story.
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  Speaker 1: It's survival. Like we're talking about a survival story. The
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  Speaker 1: contenders cannot ease into anything anymore. A team could play
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  Speaker 1: well enough to finish in the top ten nationally and
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  Speaker 1: still drop three games along the way, and that matters
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  Speaker 1: a lot when you're talking about the Texas, Oklahoma, A,
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  Speaker 1: and m LSU Like none of those teams, they don't
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  Speaker 1: get to take it slow. The nine games slate also
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  Speaker 1: messes with the tiebreaker mat for Atlanta, You're not gonna
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  Speaker 1: have a clean two horse race. We could easily be
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  Speaker 1: se in November with four, four or five teams tied
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  Speaker 1: up on two conference losses, all waiting on help. And
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  Speaker 1: we kind of had that last year where A and
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  Speaker 1: m Ole, Miss, Alabama, and Georgia all had only one
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  Speaker 1: loss in conference. But it had to do with strength
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  Speaker 1: of schedule all that kind I mean, you had to
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  Speaker 1: wait until the very last Saturday to figure out exactly
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  Speaker 1: what was going to happen. So then there's the coaching
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  Speaker 1: caresel in this offseason was Bunanas. LSU got Lane Kiffin
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  Speaker 1: running the show. Now Charlie Weis Junior is handling the offense.
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  Speaker 1: There Blake Baker's State put on defense. He didn't take
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  Speaker 1: the two lane job. That's about as bold at swing
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  Speaker 1: as LSU could have taken. And boy, it was messy
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  Speaker 1: and it was ugly, and it was all those things.
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  Speaker 1: Florida brought in John some Rall with Buster Faulkner, the
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  Speaker 1: offense coordinator from Georgia Tech, Colling plays and Brad White
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  Speaker 1: running the defense. And we know some roll like his
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  Speaker 1: reputation is built on fast turnarounds. He's walking into enough
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  Speaker 1: talent that this doesn't have to be a full tear down.
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  Speaker 1: But it was kind of There wasnt a whole lot
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  Speaker 1: of fanfare about some ro All taking that Florida job.
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  Speaker 1: It wasn't like a huge thing because all of the
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  Speaker 1: oxygen got sucked up by the Kiffin hire. But it's
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  Speaker 1: possible that some Raw was the best hire of this offseason.
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  Speaker 1: Auburn brought in Alex Golesh kept DJ dirking around, which
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  Speaker 1: y'all know how Auburn works. Go Lesh brought quarterback Byron
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  Speaker 1: Brown with him from USF along with a handful of
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  Speaker 1: other pieces, which should speed up the install Kentucky hired
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  Speaker 1: Will Stein, former Oregon offensive coordinator, went hard in the
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  Speaker 1: portal there. Arkansas hired Memphis Ryan Silverfield. That hired Ron
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  Speaker 1: Roberts to rebuild that defense from scratch. Roberts has been
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  Speaker 1: all over the place. He was at Florida. He did
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  Speaker 1: work with Dave Randa at Baylor for a little bit.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Roberts has been all over the place.
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  Speaker 1: Ole miss entering year one of the peak Golden era
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  Speaker 1: with him as the new full time head coach, replacing
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  Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin. He was the defense coordinator there. He needs
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  Speaker 1: bringing in John David Baker as offense coordinator from East Carolina.
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  Speaker 1: Trying to keep the speed in the aggression and they
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  Speaker 1: made the Kiffin offense so dangerous. And it's not just
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  Speaker 1: head coaches, right. The coordinator changes are a pretty big deal.
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  Speaker 1: Jim Knowles has taken over the Tennessee defense will must Champions,
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  Speaker 1: replacing Pete Kwakowski. At Texas, Kendall Briles is now in
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  Speaker 1: Columbia to fix South Carolina's offense. I already brought this
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  Speaker 1: up once. Chip Lindsay he's got an interesting Missouri attack
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  Speaker 1: to run. A and M has new coordinators on both sides.
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  Speaker 1: Halman Wiggins is going to be your offenseive coordinator, replacing
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  Speaker 1: Colin Kleine that went over to Kansastate and then you
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  Speaker 1: got Lyle Hemphill on defense. The league has an unbelievable
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  Speaker 1: coaching group top to bottom. We just don't have any
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  Speaker 1: continuity right, Like, there's more upside, sure, but there's a
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  Speaker 1: lot of uncertainty, which brings me back to the quarterback situation,
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  Speaker 1: because that divide might be the big storyline in the
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  Speaker 1: whole conference. At the top, there's real national star power.
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  Speaker 1: Arch Manning is the biggest name in the room. Closed
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  Speaker 1: out twenty twenty five, playing the best football his career
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  Speaker 1: thus far. From November on he had the best QBR
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  Speaker 1: in the entire country. Now Texas surrounds him with Leak Brown,
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  Speaker 1: Hollywood Smothers, Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo and at Mosley. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: it's an absurd amount of skill talent. Trinidad Chambliss is
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  Speaker 1: back at Old miss he put up over forty four
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  Speaker 1: hundred yards. Last year, he drugged the Rebels to a
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  Speaker 1: playoff semi final against Miami and was really just a
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  Speaker 1: play away from being able to win that game. When
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  Speaker 1: a play breaks down, he has got answers that most
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  Speaker 1: other quarterbacks do not. Sam Levitt comes over to LSU.
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  Speaker 1: He up there is on a state reach to twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty four playoff. He already knows how to run a
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  Speaker 1: high level offense, and now he's got Kevin drawn up
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  Speaker 1: the plays in one of the best transfer receiver rooms
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  Speaker 1: in the country. A and M's got Marcel Reid threw
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  Speaker 1: for over three thousand yards, ran for over five to
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  Speaker 1: fifty last year for A and M. When protection breaks down,
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  Speaker 1: he's tough to bring down right But and the reason
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  Speaker 1: a lot of people are questioning A and M twelve
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  Speaker 1: interceptions for fumbles, that number has got to come down.
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  Speaker 1: Oklahoma's got John Mattier and he was in all of
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  Speaker 1: the Heisman discussions before he got hurt last year. Like
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  Speaker 1: he's got experience, he's got toughness. Gunner Stockton is in
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  Speaker 1: at Georgia. Continuing at Georgia has won the last two
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  Speaker 1: SEC championships. You got efficiency, you got continuity there. South
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  Speaker 1: Carolina has got Leonora's sellers, Byron Brown is at Auburn,
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  Speaker 1: and we haven't even talked about who Kentucky's gonna have,
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  Speaker 1: Who Alabama's gonna have, who Florida's plan. Like, there's just
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  Speaker 1: a lot, like a middle and bottom of this league.
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  Speaker 1: Things get kind of shaky. Let's talk about these like Bama,
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  Speaker 1: Keeland Russell, and Austin Mack. The ceiling is pretty obvious,
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  Speaker 1: especially with Russell. Neither one has real major conference reps
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  Speaker 1: under his belt, and Bema's only bringing back thirty five
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  Speaker 1: percent of their offensive production. Tennessee has got a three
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  Speaker 1: way battle. I think it's really only a two way battle,
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  Speaker 1: but George McIntyre, Faison Brandon, and Brian Staub. The surrounding
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: talent is excellent, but there is no experience among those three.
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  Speaker 1: And then Texas is showing up there in week four,
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  Speaker 1: so you got to have something pretty close out the gate.
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  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt is expected to hand the keys over to Jared
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  Speaker 1: Curtis after they lost Diego Pavia. Curtis has five star talent,
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  Speaker 1: but he's also inheriting an offense that replaces four starting
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  Speaker 1: linemen and three of its top four receivers. Arkansas has
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  Speaker 1: some pretty athletic pieces in place. You got kJ Jackson,
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  Speaker 1: You've got AJ Hill, but neither has proven he can
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  Speaker 1: run a consistent sec passing attack. Right Florida. Florida and
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  Speaker 1: Kentucky might have upgraded their long term outlook at quarterback, right,
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  Speaker 1: I think Aaron Filo. It may not be Filo, I
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: don't know. We'll talk about that more in a little bit,
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  Speaker 1: but Filo is the most. He knows Buster Faulkner's system
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  Speaker 1: much more. But either way, Kentucky's got Kenny Minchie, who
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  Speaker 1: was neck and neck with CJ. Carre at Notre Dame
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  Speaker 1: last year, but both there are still projections at this
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  Speaker 1: point like that. There's no proven answers on Florida or Kentucky.
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  Speaker 1: And that's why I proven quarterback play matters so much
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  Speaker 1: early in this league. Texas, Ole, miss Oklahoma, Georgia already
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  Speaker 1: know who their guy is. A big chunk of the
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  Speaker 1: rest of the conference is just trying to figure it out.
• 13:18
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  Speaker 1: you don't miss any of our college football coverage this season.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: So let's get into the tiers. Tier one is small
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  Speaker 1: and is the title contenders. And there's there's only two teams.
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  Speaker 1: It's Georgia and Texas. Really, George is my real liability pick.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, they've won through the last four season titles,
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  Speaker 1: they made it to Atlanta and eight of the last
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  Speaker 1: nine seasons. And that's not a fluke. That's a program, right.
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  Speaker 1: They got Gunner, stocked him back, one of the deepest
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  Speaker 1: running back rooms in the country. You got Nate Fraser,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: you got Chauncey Bowens, you got Dante Dowdell, and you
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: got an experienced offensive line in front of them, which
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: really matters. On defense, you got thirteen guys who logged
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: at least two hundred snaps last year. Like, that's awesome.
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  Speaker 1: I don't see a lot of obvious structural holes on
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  Speaker 1: this roster. The front should be outstanding, the linebackers have experienced,
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  Speaker 1: the secondary's got emerging stars. There's no defense in this
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: league that I trust more heading into this season. The
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: one question that keeps following with Georgia round is the
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: same one from the last few years, and that's Mike
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Bobo's offense. Right. Can the offense manufacture explosive plays against
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: the very best defenses on the schedule. They have shown
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  Speaker 1: that capability. Stockton has shown he can run the operation.
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  Speaker 1: He's going to keep it on schedule. Georgia should be
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: able to run the ball efficiently all year, but in
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a playoff against another elite defense, can they hit the
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: twenty five and forty yard plays that kind of flipped
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: the game? And then it turns into can they stop them?
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  Speaker 1: Because they could not against Olemis last year. But that's
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: beside the point. The reason I keep Georgia at number
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  Speaker 1: one the schedule. They avoid Texas, they avoid Texas A
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  Speaker 1: and M, they avoid LSU entirely. They get six of
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  Speaker 1: the projected bottom eight teams in the league. And you
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: know there are multiple people that have rated Georgia's schedule
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  Speaker 1: as the easiest in the conference. Now their projective favorites
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: in every single game that they play. They're sitting at
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  Speaker 1: plus three ten to win the SEC with a win
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  Speaker 1: total of nine and a half. It's not a huge
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  Speaker 1: discount price, but when it's this close to Texas's number,
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  Speaker 1: the schedule gap really makes a difference there. As far
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: as an upside pick, Texas has got to be the
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: upside pick right if you're building an offense purely on
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  Speaker 1: ceiling like this is the one arch Many finished last
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  Speaker 1: season playing at a Heisman level. Cam Coleman comes in
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  Speaker 1: from Alburn, gives them a legit outside threat Ryan Wingo
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  Speaker 1: and Emmit Mosley. They're both dangerous. Relie Brown, Hollywood Smothers
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  Speaker 1: come in, one from Arizona State, the other Vermancy State.
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  Speaker 1: Gives Texas two premium backs, and on the other side
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  Speaker 1: of the ball, Colin Simmons might be one of the
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  Speaker 1: most disruptive pass rushers in this entire country. The talent
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  Speaker 1: here is championship caliber, but the schedule is absurd. ESPN
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: has Texas face and the hardest late in the country
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  Speaker 1: eight projected top twenty opponents in early date with Ohio State,
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  Speaker 1: and then their final three games are all on the road,
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  Speaker 1: including trips to LSU and am M. I mean, Texas
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  Speaker 1: could get better as a football team this year and
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  Speaker 1: still win fewer games than they did last year. And
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: that's not a knock on the roster obviously, that's just
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  Speaker 1: the reality of the road that they've got in front
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  Speaker 1: of them. There's also some depth questions after a pretty
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: aggressive portal cycle, right, and what must champ taken over
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: the defense? I mean, it's just another variable at a
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: program that has championship of expectations. There's no more excuses
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  Speaker 1: for this team anymore. Texas is the market favorite plus
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  Speaker 1: three hundred to win the conference win total of nine
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  Speaker 1: and a half. They could absolutely win the league and
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  Speaker 1: they could win the national title. But eight and four
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: is also on the table. So that's why I feel
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: like Georgia is the safer pick. Texas has the flashyar offense,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Georgia has fewer ways for the whole season to kind
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: of fall apart. Moving on to Tier two, and this
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: is where the conference gets interesting, right, because there's a
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: lot of question marks here and a lot of teams
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: that all have a legit path to Atlanta, LSU A
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: and m Alabama, Ole Miss Oklahoma. LSU might be the
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: most fascinating team in college football right now. Lane Kiffin,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Charlie Weis, junior Sam Levitt. They're building the offense, Blake
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Beaker is still running the defense, and they brought in
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: a premium transfer receiver class to go with the roster
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: that was basically reconstructed with championship expectations out of the gate.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: And we all know what the ceiling is here, right Keivin.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: He's got one of the best offensive mines in the sport.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Levit's already won big games. LSU's defense is projected second
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: nationally in defensive sp plus. The issue could be chemistry,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: particularly upfront. The offensive line has been rebuilt, the defensive
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: line has new pieces. The cast around Levitt is talented
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: but pretty unfamiliar with each other, and LSU doesn't get
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: much runway to sort that out. You know, you got Clemson,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss and Texas A and m All showing up
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: before October even starts. If you win those games, LSU
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: becomes the biggest story in the country almost overnight. If
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: you lose two of them, while the line is still
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: figuring things out, while the chemistry is still gelling, the
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: whole season shifts before the roster's even settled in so
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: LSU at plus eight point fifty to win the league
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: with a total of eight and a half. That price
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: is it's a good mix. It's pricing in both the
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: upside and the risk at the same time. A and
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: M is probably the least talked about contender in this
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: whole conference. And I don't get it, but I do
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: get it right. It was an eleven win team last year,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: but the schedule was super easy. Marcel Reid is back.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: The secondary should be one of the better ones in
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the league. They've got some real skill talent. They ranked
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: ninth nationally and projected s P plus like there's a
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: version of this season where the Aggies win ten or
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: eleven games and it shouldn't shock anybody. I mean, Reid
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: is the key to all of this. His ability to
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: create outside of structure is a massive weapon. But he
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: can't keep giving the ball away. Twelve picks, four fumble.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: That's too many for a team with these kind of expectations.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: And the other worry is in the trenches. A and
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: M could start four transfers on the offensive line. There's
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: new pieces up front on defense that are being asked
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: to replace some real production there. They also draw six
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: projected Top twenty opponents, four of them on the road,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: with five sec road games. Overall, that's not a friendly slate.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: But they're also at plus eight fifty and A and
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: M offering A and M is offering a lot more
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: returning production than Bama and more continuity than LSU, etc.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: It makes them, It makes them an appealing alternative to
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Georgia and Texas on the board right now. But you
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: got to remember they lost both of their coordinators as well.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: We don't know exactly what we're gonna get from this team.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: Alabama is the ultimate projection team this year. The defensive
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: backfield should be elite. Recruiting talent is still excellent, Kaitlin
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Debor has continuity within the program, and incoming quarterback Keaelan
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Russell could absolutely be special. Like Phil Steele has actually
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: pegged Alabama as his top national surprise team, which tells
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: you exactly how high the ceiling is. If Russell's ready
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: to go right out of the gate. But you start
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: looking at like s P plus's returning experience numbers, you're
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: going to see exactly why Alabama isn't in Tier one.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: They're only bringing back forty eight percent of total production,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: just thirty five percent on offense. Defensive line has got
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: to replace some important pieces. Quarterback has almost no meaningful experience.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: It's at this level, and the good news is the schedule.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: Bama doesn't face the top twenty opponent until Week six,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: which does by either Russell or Mac time to grow
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: into that job. The bad news is five sec road
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: games are waiting on the back half. At plus eight
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: fifty and eight and a half wins they got, It's
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: not a clean edge, like the range of outcomes is
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: too wide to feel good about either side. Bama could
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: be right back in the playoff, or they could spend
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: the whole year looking like a supremely talented team that
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: is maybe still a season away because they got a
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: lot of young talent right now. Oh miss, I've got
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: him at number six here, one of the highest weekly
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: floors in this league, purely because Trinidad Chambliss can bail
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: out or broke and play better than anybody. He's almost one,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: not almost, he has already won playoff games. Keewan Lacy
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: back at running back. That's awesome. Joshua die Makai Frasier
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: adds depth behind him, Golding got credibility after last season,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: and John David Baker keep that offensive tempo humming. But
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: there are certainly questions, Right, you're losing Kiffin, You're losing
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of faces. Can the new receiver room or
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: place what walked out the door? Like? Does the secondary
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: hold up? How clean is the transition after Kiffin? And honestly,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: how many coin flip games can win team survive in
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: a single season? Like Ole Miss has eight games projected
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: inside one position this year. They played Louisville at a
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: conference right out of the gate. They travel to Florida,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: they traveled to Texas, they traveled to Oklahoma, Like this
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: could be a legit top fifteen power ranked team and
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: still finished seven and five. Ole Miss sits at plus
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: one thousand to win the league, and they've got a
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: seven and a half win total. Yeah, I mean, the
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: upside is real, but the volatility could certainly be there.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: And then as far as our last dark horse Tier
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: two team, Oklahoma might be the most dangerous team in
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: this whole second tier, Like this is more than likely
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: a top ten defense. Printventables has got the program with
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: the real identity right now. Taylor Ween, David Stone, Kip Lewis,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the Bowen defensive backs give Oklahoma some really high end
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: talent at just about every single level. John buttier Back
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: at quarterback. The offensive line's got more continuity. The receiver
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: room should be deeper than last year. Like if they
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: can get a functional run game going, This offense doesn't
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: have to be spectacular. It's just got to stop putting
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: the defense in bad spots. And I think the biggest
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: the biggest concern here is probably Materi's durability. Right he's aggressive,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: he plays a physical style. Oklahoma cannot afford to lose
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: him for any stretch of this schedule. They traveled to
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Michigan in week two, Georgia in week four they face
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: they may be back to back. I don't have the
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: schedule in front of me, but by week four they
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: faced both of them, Michigan and Georgia. They faced three
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: projected top fifteen opponents in the first five games. They
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: closed the year with forced trait projected top twenty opponents.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it gets more brutal than that,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: but they're plus twelve hundred to win the SEC. They've
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: got a seven and a half win total that opened
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: at six and a half. The schedule is exactly why
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: that numbers being pushed down, But that does create an
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: opportunity if you believe that the defense is ch championship
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: caliber all right, looking at Tier three and this giant,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: dangerous middle class of the conference, right, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, Auburn, and Vanderbilt. Every one of them is
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: capable of knocking off somebody above them on a given Saturday.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's projected fourth nationally in offensive sp plus Deshaun Bishop,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Braylan Staley, Mike Matthews. They're all back five of the
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: six primary offensive lineman return. Josh Heipel has built a
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: system that creates stress on defenses even when the quarterback
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: isn't finished product yet. But that projection hinges on one
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: of you know, George McIntyre, Faison, Brandon, Ryan Staub one
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: of those guys being ready almost immediately, and Jim Knowles
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: coming in. He inherits the defense with real turnover. His
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: system has historically improved teams over time, but year one
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: almost always comes with growing pains. The schedule is manageable
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: relative to other contenders. You got five of Action Networks
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: projected bottom six SEC teams and then you got Texas, Alabama,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: and LSU all coming to Knoxville. Like Tennessee's total of
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, the range could run anywhere from
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: seven and five to nine and three. So there's an
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: outcome range of like two wins two losses. There. Missouri
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: has become a program that I was gonna say that
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: you could count on, but you basically know what you're
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: gonna get with Missouri right The offensive line has experienced
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: We'll see if Amad Hardy's back. Jamal Roberts does give
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: him a pretty strong backfield assuming that Hardy's healthy. Austin
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: Simmons has the arm to create some explosive plays, but
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Simmons also brings turnover risk Missouri. He's got to replace
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: thirteen of its top fifteen tacklers from last year, which
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: is a massive number on defense. That's stupid, but that's
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: the way it goes in the portal. The total is
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: six and a half for Missouri, and that's a pretty
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: wide range. I think he could be a six and
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: six team and the defense doesn't figure itself out or
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the line in the run game carry him to another
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: eight or nine win season Florida. That's another one, another
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: high variant situation. Some are all we know his track record.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Jayden Baw is an excellent running back. There's enough defensive
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: talent to keep Florida competitive most weeks. The longer I
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: get into into the summer, I think Aaron Filo is
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: gonna win this job because he already knows Buster Faulkner's
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: offense and that should smooth out the transition. But Filo
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: is still unproven at this level. And Tremaine Jones is
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: also Tremaine Jones Junior is awesome. I mean, he looked
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: good in the spring game. But Florida draws Texas, Georgia,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: and Oklahoma in three straight weeks, and that stretch alone
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: might decide whether this is a you know, a legit
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: top twenty team or another six and six club with
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: some flashes. Right when total sits at seven and a
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: half for them, it feels aggressive, like ID I probably
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: wouldn't bet on this one, just because, how do you know?
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think anybody's gonna know what to think of Florida,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Like no idea. South Carolina is an interesting one, might
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: be the most attractive team in this whole tier to me,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Leonora Sellers, Nick harverd Dylan Stewart. They got a new
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator there, They've got legitimate stars, their fifth nationalland
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: returning production. Kendall Browles is it. You can think whatever
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: you want to about the name Briwles, but he's a
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: pretty good offensive coordinator and he can add answers that
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: South Carolina has not had. He's a proven oc. The
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: issue that they've got is protection. They allowed forty three
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: sacks and eighty eight tackles for loss last year. And
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: you can have a great quarterback in dangerous receivers, but
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: none of it matters if the line just keeps getting
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: the whole operation knocked off schedule and like that. The
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: protection doesn't have to be elite. It just has to
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: be average. Like if Seller stays healthy and the close
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: game results normalize even a little bit. Seven wins is
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: certainly in play here. Eight wins, maybe nine wins. I mean,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: this team was close to the playoff just two years
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: ago with a lot of these same guys. Auburn that's
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: another one that's starting a reset. But you know there's
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: a little jews to this reset, right go Lesh brought
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: in by Brown with him from USF and brought in
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: a ton of the production from South Florida, and he
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: gives Auburn an immediate feel for out of this offense
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: is supposed to run Jeremiah Cobb, bryceon Washington, the Kay Davenport.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: It gives some options in the backfield and Dirk and
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: staying on defense provides some continuity there. The problem is
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: almost every key unit depends on transferse clicking right away.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Auburn has also dropped twelve of their last thirteen to
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: one score games. That number usually points towards positive regression,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: but it didn't guarantee anything like the midseason run that
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: they've got Tennessee, Georgia, lsu Ole, Miss Like that's gonna
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: tell us whether whether Auburn is actually turned a corner.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna I'm tossing Vanderbilt into the Bowl hopefuls
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: into the Tier three here because they do deserve some
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: respect here. Clark Lee has built a real sec program.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: They won ten games last year. They legitimately changed the
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: expectation around Nashville and that is a good problem to have.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: But but this year's team is replacing Diego Pavia I
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: mentioned earlier four starting lineman, three of the top four receivers,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: most of the defensive front. I mean, it is a
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: lot of turnover at once. And Jared Curtis might eventually
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: be the best quarterback in this league. He is outstanding,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: but he is a freshman coming into the SEC with
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: a roster that is not as good as everybody else's, Like,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: nobody should expect him to instantly replace everything that Pavia
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: gave the team, especially with so much else changing around him.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: The total has moved to five and a half, which
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: is I think a lot more reasonable than a six
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: and a half would have been. Now as far as
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: the Tier four, here you got Kentucky, Mississippi State in Arkansas.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Kentucky has the most immediate upside of the three. Will
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: Stein modernizing the offense, Kenny Minshi's got intriguing tools. CJ. Baxter,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Javonte Barnes. That's some real juice in the backfield with
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: you know, a pretty physically impressive Excuse me, I knew
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: that was coming, a pretty physically impressive group of offensive
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: line transfers that are at it on top. Kentucky could
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: start twelve to fifteen transfers this fall. That's the kind
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: of number that either produces fast improvement or two months
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: of learning how to play together on the fly. And
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: the schedule is one of the ten hardest in the country.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Win total set at four and a half. Like, okay, okay,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: I see where they're going here, Considering one of their
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: non conference games is Louisville, there's not a lot of
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: gimmes on this schedule. Mississippi State, that is an interesting
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: one interesting young arm there with Camario Taylor brought back
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Zach Arnett to run the defense. Six of the top
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: seven offensive linemen are gone, and the Bulldogs open a
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: stretch of six straight projected top twenty five opponents starting
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: in Week three. That's a brutal way to develop a
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: young quarterback. Their total is also at four and a half.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't touch the under at the number, but you know,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: if you can find a five and a half, I
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: think that'd be kind of interesting, because I don't I
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna be able to get to a
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: bowl game. But hey, not like they don't have talent,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: so they've got some. It's just not as much as
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: everybody else. Arkansas might have the strongest positive regression case
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: in the league. And maybe the toughest rebuilt at the
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: same time. Went two to ten last year, lost seven
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: of those games by one possession. I mean the record
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: could improve by winning the close ones at just an
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: average rate, they could have made a bowl game. There's
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: athletes on offense, the defense is being rebuilt from scratch.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: The quarterback spot is unsettled Ryan Silverfield and he inherited
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the toughest sc draw in my opinion. Like they travel
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: to Utah outside of conference play, they might only be
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: favored in three games all season. Like a bowl game
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: is possible. It's just really tough to bank on what
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: extra winning cures everything content and a way to support
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: the show directly head over to buy me a coffee,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: dot com slash winning cures and become part of the
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: community today. The clearest strength in this league right now
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: is probably the defensive ceiling. Georgia is the most trustworthy
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: unit in the conference. LSU projected second nationally and defensive
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: SB plus, but Blake Baker still calling the shots. Alabama
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: might have the best secondary in all the college football.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma has already proven that their defense can carry a
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: program to the playoff, and A and M put up
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: forty three sacks one hundred and ten tackles for loss
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: last season. With the secondary that could be excellent again.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: All of that gives those offense the offensive rooms time
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: to develop without the defense holding them hostage. The quarterback
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: star power at the top is pretty legit too, right,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: And I've already mentioned a bunch of these names, but Manning, Chambliss, Levitt, Reed, Mattier, Stockton,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: Sellers Brown, They're all going to be nationally relevant names
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: this fall. And that's not even including who Alabama's got,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: who Florida could be playing, et cetera. Right, So, the
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: league might not be equally strong at quarterback from top
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: to bottom, but the ceiling at the top of that
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: group is excellent. Running Back might be the deepest position
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: in the whole conference. George's got Fraser, with Bowen's and Dwell,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Texas has got Brown and smothers Ole, miss has got
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Lacey Dian Fraser, Missouri maybe has Hardy and Roberts. Florida's
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: got baw Auburn has got a couple of capable options too.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a stacked room across the board. The
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: coaching obviously remains outstanding. Kirby Smart, Steve Sarkisian, even if
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: there are questions about some of them. But Kirby Smart,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Steve Sharkusian, Lane, Kevin Kaylin de boor Mike Elko, print Vnables,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Josh hipel Eli Drinkwitz. I mean it's it is a
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: league that's got proven championship level leadership. Well, you've got
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: new faces in as well. Some are all go leesh Stein.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: They all bring fresh ideas into the mix. Now as
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: far as the weakness on this conference, and it's gonna
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: be the same thing for a lot of conferences because
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: it's just tough to do this now. Offensive line volatility, right,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: ik you Texas A and m Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State, and Arkansas all needed new lineman or transfers
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: to joie really fast. And it's the trap that we
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: all fall into. We look at a bunch of transfer
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: editions and just assume it's an automatic upgrade. But offensive
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: line play is about communication and chemistry and knowing what
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: to expect from the guy that you're working next to.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Just a pile of talented individuals does not turn into
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: a functional unit overnight. Just because September rolled around like that,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: could mean some genuinely ugly early season offensive football across
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: the big chunks of this league. So you're gonna need
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: that defense to really step up. I mean, you saw
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: it last year with Texas and Ohio State right fourteen
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: to seven. In that game, it was who but because
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: both teams had pretty good defenses that helped as well.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Quarterback inexperience is the other saw spot Bama, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Arkansas.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's real legit question marks at the most
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: important position on the field. And also you've got the
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: conference central contradiction, which is the thing that makes the
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: league both great and maddening at the same time, and
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: that's that everybody can beat everybody. It's fantastic television. It
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: builds really strong resumes across the board, but it might
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: also be what stops the SEC from producing a a
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: clean eleven and one team that just walks into the
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: playoff risted and healthy and battle tested and whatever. Instead,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: everybody's gonna be banged up, everybody's going to have battle scars.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: He's going to be a thing. Now, let's talk some
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: key players here, some key units at quarterback. Arch Manning
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: walks in with the highest ceiling in the country. I
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: think the only question is whether the guy that we
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: saw down the stretch in twenty twenty five is the
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: guy that Texas gets for all twelve games this year.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Trinidad Chambliss is the most proven improviser in this league.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: He's already let all missed through a playoff run and
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: gives that offense an answer even when the plays break down.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Sam Levitt might have he might have the best scheme
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: fit with Kivin calling plays for him. Well, it's not
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: just Kivin, it's Charlie Weis Junior as well, Marcel Reid.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: I'll consider him maybe the most dangerous athlete on this
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: whole list, But obviously there's questions there with giving the
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: ball away, et cetera. John Mattier needs to survive the
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: schedule physically. Gunnar Stockton needs to find a little more
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: explosive juice in that offense. Sellers needs better protection and
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: needs to make some better decisions. Byron Brown has got
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: to prove that his USF production travels against SEC caliber defenses,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: and that is a real thing. I had a lot
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: of Auburn fans jump in on my Auburn te team preview,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: and I mentioned the line about how he's not a
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: proven passer at this level. Yes, he has numbers. You
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: can generate numbers. What you can't do is show that
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: you can hit a window against a really tight defense
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: when you've got somebody in your face. He hasn't. He's
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: not a proven passer at this level. I'm not gonna
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: back down on that. So the best projected offense on
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: papers Tennessee fourth nationally in offensive s P plus, but
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: that number rides entirely on whichever quarterback wins that job.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Georgia has got the safest offensive structure in the league.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Texas probably the highest skill position ceiling, not even probably.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna put that hands down, like the
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: talent they've got is just stupid. Ole Miss has got
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: the best combo of a proven quarterback and proven running backs.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: A and M can manufacture explosive plays outside of structure.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: LSU has the best shot at making a genuine one
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: year leap because their their offense was terrible last year.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: On defense, george is probably the best unit full stop,
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: fewest question marks out of anybody. LSU is probably the
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: most aggressive group in this league. I've mentioned Bama's secondary
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: multiple times, but they're gonna have to fix their linebackers
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: and their uh, well, just the front seven in general, right,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss, not ol Miss Oklahoma. Oklahoma has the strongest
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: established identity outside of Athens, and then A and M
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: has enough talent to stay disruptive even while they're replacing
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of front seven production. Like cash is outl
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: being gone, it's that one's rough upfront. The best offensive
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: lines walking into this season probably look like Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri. Uh,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Georgia has got the best defense front of the league. Alabama, Georgia,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: A and M and Oklahoma league the way in the
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: secondary conversation. And as far as special teams, I mean,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss is projected first nationally and special teams s
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: P plus Georgia is third and Vanderbilt seven. So in
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: a league where so many games come down to one scores,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: the hidden yards there are gonna matter a lot more
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: than people think. Now, you can't evaluate a single projection
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: in this league without talking about the schedule, because it
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: might matter more in this year than it ever has.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Texas has got the hardest path overall in the country
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: in my opinion eight projected top twenty opponents. Ohio State
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: early three straight road games to end the regular season
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: that includes LSU and to A and M. You got
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: a nine to three Texas team that could genuinely be
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: an excellent football team. Arkansas. My buddy Duck over at
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Action Network, he has Arkansas with the toughest SEC draw
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: and they also travel to Utah at a conference. Oklahoma
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: has to visit both Michigan and Georgia. By week four.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: They close with four consecutive projected Top twenty opponents. Mississippi
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: State runs into six straight projected Top twenty five teams
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: starting in week three. I mean Kentucky's got a top
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: ten national schedule. They're trying to install a new staff
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: and blend in a transfer heavy roster all at one time.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: A and M faces six projected Top twenty opponents, four
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: of them away from home, which is a major shift
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: from what they faced last year. Their schedule last year
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: was insanely favorable, and once they ran into tough teams
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: at the end of the year, lose to Texas, lose
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: a home to Miami, and yes, those are really good teams,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: but you know this year you're gonna have six of
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: those kind of teams. On the flip side, Georgia's got
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: the best path among true contenders. They avoid Texas, they
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: avoid LSU, they avoid A and M. They faced six
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: of the projected bottom eight, and they're projected as favorites
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: in every single game on the schedule. That Bama game
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: is I think that could be a toss up. Bama's
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: got time to let the quarterback grow before they face
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: a projected top twenty opponent. They do still have Florida
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: State and Kentucky and South Carolina in their first five games,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: but then they face Georgia. But they get Georgia at home.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: They've had some success against Georgia, so but Alabama does
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: have five SEC road games and those are still those
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: are still difficult. Tennessee draws five of the projected bottom six,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: and they get Texas, Alabama, and LSU all at home
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: in Knoxville. South Carolina's conference draw is relatively manageable. The
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: back half is insanely difficult, so you got to take
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: advantage of that early slate. But they get Clemson at
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: the end and that keeps the slate from being easy. Right.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: There are some real land mines buried in the schedule too.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: LSU's opening month could define their entire season. Not brought
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: it up before, but Clemson, Old Miss, and A and
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: M all show up before October. Oklahoma could genuinely be
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: a better football team this year and still open two
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: and two because they've got road trips to Michigan and Georgia.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Georgia goes to Oxford right after the Florida game, and
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: ole Miss has already proven it can beat the Bulldogs.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Texas closes with back to back road trips to LSU
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: and A and m Auburn. I mean they run into Tennessee, Georgia, LSU,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: and ole Miss back to back to back to back.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: That's so difficult. Florida plays Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma consecutive weeks.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt opens SEC play at Auburn, at Georgia, and then
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: at home against ole Miss. Like, where do these games
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: fall on the calendar is gonna matter almost as much
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: as who's actually planning them. These schedules are rough shirts, hoodies, hats,
• 43:32
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• 43:58
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about the tampionship race. I'll go on,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: let the cat out of the back. My projected SEC
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: championship game is Georgia against Texas. Again, it wasn't that
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: last year, but they're the top two teams in the market.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: It's the top two teams in projected conference wins over
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: at s P plus. Georgia at six point nine, Texas
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: at six point three. Both sit among the top six
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: teams nationally in SP plus. Georgia has the cleaner path,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Texas has the higher offensive ceiling. But then I mean
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: the challengers that I've brought up before, lsu A and
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: m Alabama, Ole Miss and Oklahoma. Any of the five
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: could crash that party. Like my pick to actually win
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: it is Georgia best defensive foundation in the league, returning quarterback.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: You got a good running game, championship infrastructure, favorable schedule
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: like at plus three ten, That price isn't a massive discount,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't think a ten cent gap between Georgia
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: and Texas properly reflects the difference in what each team
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: is actually facing on the schedule. The risk with Georgia
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: is still offensive explosiveness. They should be efficient enough to
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: get to Atlanta. They may eventually need more efficiency to
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: be able to win it all in January, but as
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: you know, for the conference race specifically, Georgia is the
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: most dependable pick on the board in my opinion. All right, now,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: let's talk money. The team I've got overvalued is Texas,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: and that's not me saying that Texas is a bad
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: football team. They might be one of the six best
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: teams in the country, but they are priced as the
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: SEC favorite at plus three hundred with a win total
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: of nine and a half. ESPN's actual projection has them
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: at eight point six wins, and that gap is it's
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: because of the schedule, like eight top twenty opponents three
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: straight road games close it out that there's almost zero
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: margin for air here. And do we trust Steve Sarkisian
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: against all of the other good coaches in this conference.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Texas can finish nine to three the underhits. They can
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: still sit in the top ten nationally and still lose
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: the over nine and a half ticket. Right. That's why
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: the under nine and a half is my preferred side here,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: even at a price here. Number Tennessee is another one
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: that I would tread carefully with the offensive projection looks outstanding,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: but the quarterback room and the defense, I mean, there's
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: real uncertainty there. They got eight projected toss up games,
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: and Jim Knowles's system might need a full year to
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: settle in. My initial thought was this team would go
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: over eight because oh well, you can just you know,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: the schedule is easy enough. They've got enough around them
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to get to eight wins. I think,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: based on what I'm looking at with the schedule, everything
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: I've read about this team, et cetera, under seven and
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: a half is probably my lean here because I don't
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: think seven and five is terrible, knowing what we know
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: about Chess Coleman being off the team, and just how
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: long it takes a gym Noles defense to kind of
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: build up, and the fact that you're gonna have an inexperience,
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: a completely inexperienced quarterback. Vanderbilt team whose perception has shifted
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: a lot. I told you about all the pieces that
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: they're missing. Five and a half. I think that number
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: is fair enough. I would lean to the under on this.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: If the market pushes it back up to like six
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: and a half, then I've put on here that it
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: gets interesting at six and a half, but I would
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: bet under six and a half. Another team I've got
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: or no. I guess the team that I have undervalue
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: probably TEXTA, A, and M. The price of the exact
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: same plus eight to fifty is bam in LSU, but
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: they bring back more proven production, They've got more continuity
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: than Alabama or than LSU. It's an eleven win team
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: with its starting quarterback, returning line player's got to hold up, obviously,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: but plus eight to fifty gives you a better mix
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: of experience and price than anything else that's close to that.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma is probably my aggressive long shot. At plus twelve hundred,
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: you're betting the top ten caliber defense and a healthy
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: job Terier can survive just a gaultlet of a schedule,
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: and it's not a safe bet. But if the Sooners
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: get through that first month, that what three and one?
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, that ticket looks a whole lot better South Carolina.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go as my favorite over. They're at six
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: and a half plus money available on the over. The
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: game Cocks don't need to be championship contenders, like I've
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: told you all the stuff that they gotta get right.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Line's gotta be competent, sellers has got to stay a
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: little healthier. Close game luck needs to land somewhere near
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: average in that combination will probably get them a seven wins.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: Auburn they're six and a half. I've got less confidence
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: there given how much of that roster depends on transfers,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: mession quickly and do we I used to think that
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: like returning experience mattered, like bringing in guys that have
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: a lot of reps and all that kind of stuff,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: that that matters. But you're bringing in a lot of
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: guys from USF that I don't know how quickly they
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: can I don't know what kind of an advantage that
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: is over sec defenses. Does that make sense? I hope
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: that makes sense. A few other numbers that are like
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: Georgia over nine and a half makes sense given the schedule.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma over seven and a half is appealing if you
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: buy into that, but you've already missed the best price
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: there because like I've already got them at six and
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: a half, so you gotta trust that defense. And I
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: think I would with venables Ole miss slight Lean at
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: seven and a half over just because, like i mean,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: look all the there's a bunch of toss up games there,
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: so I'm not super confident in it. But Trinidad Chambliss
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: and a pretty decent defense, I figured they ought to
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: be able to they should hit eight wins A and
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: M over eight and a half. That's interesting number, I mean,
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: is it plus money? So you know this is a
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: team that at least they have a winning culture. Now,
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Arkansas under four and a half is the clean bottom
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: of the league fade, you know. Yeah, the regression stuff,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: I understand all that, but they're the one that I
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: feel the most comfortable in going under four and a half.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: So my core positions going into the season South Carolina
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: over six and a half, Texas under nine and a half.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a smaller Oklahoma ticket and a smaller
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: A and M ticket both of those who win the SEC.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: And my Arkansas under four and a half is a
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: ticket that I'm gonna have, all right, My surprise team
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: this year is Oklahoma. That defense has got top ten
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: potential Jeometiers back, the offensive line has got more experience,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: and the receiver room should be better. This offense doesn't
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: need to be elite. It's just got to run the
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: ball at a functional level. Like I said earlier, If
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: you can keep Matier upright and let that defensive front reload,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: good things can happen. And the first month of the
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: season decides everything for them. You split those road games
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: in Michigan and Georgia. Oklahoma then gets they build up
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: that confidence and they've got a real path to ten
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: wins and an SEC championship appearance and a playoff Berth.
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: My disappointing team is gonna be Texas, but I think
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: it needs a little context because I don't think it's
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be a collapse here. I think they can go
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: nine to three. I think they can finish top ten nationally,
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: and I think they can still make the playoff. At
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: nine and three. That would still count as a disappointment
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: for anybody that bet them at plus three hundred to
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: win the conference or took the overall nine and a
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: half wins, But between the closing stretch the defensive court interchange,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: playing in Ohio State early, all their depth questions, I mean,
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: market price is just hard to kind of justify right now.
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: My final read on this conference, the SEC doesn't look
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: like it did back when Alabama and then Georgia stood
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: heading shoulders above everybody else. Like Georgia is the stability program,
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: but Texas, lsu A and m Bama. It's that there's
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: questions for everybody. Like ole Miss with the proven playmakers,
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: but there's so much change around him, right There's so
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: much change around Chambliss and Lacy. Oklahoma's got the defense,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: but they're also insanely volatile on offense. You got another
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: half dozen teams that can drag any of these contenders
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: into a four quarter dog fight on a random Saturday.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: We talk about how bad Kentucky was last year, but
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: they were this close to beating Texas last year. And no,
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: it's not that Texas was great, but that Texas team
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: still won ten games and now they're the projected favor
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: in the league. Like moving to nine conference games means
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: this championship might get decided by health, by offensive line chemistry,
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: and what kind of one score game luck. You got
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: more than pure talent alone. So Georgia is my pick
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: to win the league. A and M is my favorite
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: value play. Oklahoma is probably my surprise team. Oh South
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: Carolina is my favorite win total. Texas is the team
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: that I'm fading at the current number. And the SEC
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: probably doesn't produce an undefeated team in twenty twenty six,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: but it might produce ten teams that nobody wants to
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: see show up on the schedule. It's not bad. Let's
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: gonna do it for the SEC preview. Go ahead and
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: hit that like button. Subscribe to Winning Cures Everything, whether
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: that's on podcast or here on the YouTube, and drop
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: a comment telling me who you got one in the conference?
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: Like what team am I too high on? Who am
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: I too low on? What quarterback ends up to side
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: in the race? Which unknown quarterback? I say unknown? Which
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: unproven quarterback comes out and just takes this thing over? Now,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: you guys tell me let me know in the comments.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: All right, until next time for Winning Cures Everything, Take
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: care of yourself, take care of each other. God bless
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: college football, and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a
• 54:21
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• 54:25
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