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The Favorites - NFL Week 5 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: We've made it to October, folks. Today is our Tuesday
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Week five episode. We're going to break down the entire
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exec decision and
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: our as Simon says, we'll start to narrow down the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: options for five faves to put in the Favorites podcast
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick contest. We went
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: four and one this past week, which means we did
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: not get any emails from any listeners who were worried.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: I was basically on suicide watch after going one and
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: four the week before. We are happy, We're proud one
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: of us. One of us felt so relaxed after the
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: podcast on Sunday night. He might have said to his wife, Hey,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: let's watch that new Kristen Bell sitcom on Netflix instead
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: of watching Sunday night football.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Jeez.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: And for the other one, he just went back to
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: doing his job. I am live from our Tommy John
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Holmes Studios and I'm joined as always buy my co host,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: my companion Mike Compadre might BFF professional better sim In
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Hunter Hello, so I.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Am in Hello, Chad off the top, we would be
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: messing up. We didn't talk about rested peace to our
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: legend Pete Rose, everyone knows passed away. This is a
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: gambling show. I know, we don't want to talk about
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: a lot of the real world stuff, but me and
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: Chatta both are namored with Pete Rose. We had a
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: writer on in the off season with a book written
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: about him, and yeah, I just wanted to bring it up,
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: get to say a little love and just you know
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: it's me and you think we both agree he probably
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: just because of the legalization of sports betting, should have
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: got into the Hall of Fame.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: So a little bittersweet day.
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: Now they're here in October and playoff baseball this year
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: and the Philadelphia legend, Read's legend, Pete Rose has passed on.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, it's it's so interesting, right. We did have
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: a writer on during the spring talking about talking about
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: the book, Keith O'Brien who's written a bunch for the Atlantic,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: and I thought the book was really good, and I
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: thought he was a great guest, and he had great
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: stuff in there. And one of the stories he told
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: was about how this was so well known what Pete
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Rose was doing that they referred to the guys he
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: was hanging out with in the locker room Sparky Anderson,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: the Reds manager at the time. They would joke about
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: the gamblers that were hanging out with Pete Rose in
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: the locker room, as if it was nothing right. And
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, and this was great context
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: for today because Keith came on and his book came
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: out right when the Otani interpreter scandal happened, and.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: And Thenani goes up and puts out the greatest baseball
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: season we've ever seen.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: So thanks didn't.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Right, But in that moment, like the contrast between it
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: was totally illegal, but everybody who Pete Rose hung out with,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: who were his runners, basically the people he gambled with
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: all hung out in the locker room and everybody knew,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: and now it's totally illegal. And the contrast of Otani
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: being connected to this guy and this being a scandal
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: that could potentially bring down baseball right now when it
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: happened was fascinating. Yeah, and Pete Rose was sort of
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: the first Domino in all of these conversations. Complicated guy, uh,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: not just the gambling scandals, but scandals, personal scandals, domesstic scandals.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Then again, one of the greatest baseball players who ever played.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: And that's why it's so hard when you're a fan
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: to separate the people from the performance. It really is.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: And now, oh, as always, athletes are not role.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Models, not role models, not at all so true. I'm
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: rip Pete Rose. Listen. In a moment, We're going to
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: recap the results of week five in our contest, announce
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: the winner of our thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: you haven't yet, be sure to sign up for the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: free Free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Pick Them contest presented by Bet three sixty five. Visit
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As a reminder, the Favorites
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you bet five dollars sign up
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: using promo code Favorite deposit ten dollars in place a
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never
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  Speaker 1: ordinary at bet three six five must be twenty one
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, eighteen and older.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler one
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioning restrictions apply
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: all right, easier week In the contest, six percent of
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: participants win five and oh congrats to Week four first
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: place winner Angelou's Bird. Angelou went five to zero in
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: the contest and missed the tie breaker by twenty five yards.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: As always, our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Cup award to the entry that finished dead fucking last
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: in the contest.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Have you heard.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: About the lordsome lose? He's a Louisa, but he still
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: keeps on tide.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to Ka Simoto, who went
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: on five and missed the tiebreaker by four hundred and
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: thirty six yards. Ka please email Matt at podcasts at
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: actionetwork dot com to claim your prize. All right, last
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: bit of housekeeping here, I do want to share a
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: quick story. Matt Mitchell told us about this yesterday.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: In week three of our contest, ad listener and naval
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: veteran Jacob Kve went five to zero and almost nailed
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: the tiebreaker, but he did not finish first because of
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: our new additional tiebreaker, which is time of submission of Unfortunately,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: he got an auto email telling him he had one,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: and our contest team had to explain that it was
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: an error. Instead of screaming himself hoarse at us, this
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: wonderful listener simply asked that you make a donation. Listen
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: up donation to the Denver Animal Shelter. Encourage any pet
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: loving listeners to do the same if you're feeling generous,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: If you want to honor Jacob's very thoughtful, selfless request,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: we've added a Denver Animal Shelter link in this episode's description.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, Thank you for your service, Thank you
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: for being so thoughtful, Jacob Kfey, Jacob Cavy. Moving on
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: to the NFL Week five. Okay, ready, Simon hard game
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: to start the week Tampa Bay at Atlanta. Lanta's a
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: one and a half point favorite. It's a fascinating game.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I can say five weeks into the season, was anyone
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: thinking these two teams would be among the class of
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: the NFC And yet Simon, here we are.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's a game you were on Sunday night
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: you said you like tamp I think they're plus two
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: and a half. So I was a little wary of it.
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: I was like, of course, everyone likes Tampa. They just
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: looked amazing. This is kind of where I want to
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: sell them in a short week after that big win.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: But I have no real filth for this game.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: I'll probably end up taking Atlanta just because of their
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: home team on Thursday night, and it's only they're only
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: a one and a half point favorite. But there's a
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: lot of trends that point to the Bucks. There's a
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: lot of things alike about this Bucks team compared to
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: to Atlanta team. So I totally get where you're coming from.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: What a lot of people are thinking here. And you know,
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: looking at the Action app, a lot of the money
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: and the tickets have come in on the Bucks. It's
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: moved down a point, makes sense right, they look like
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: the better team right now.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a game We're happy we don't
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: have to pick or really put in our contest.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's actually interesting, Like I'd honestly want to fade
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: both of these teams. Mentioned it seriously, like the Bucks
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: have been a pretty predictable team to bet. I think
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: up until this week. You know, we nail them as
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: a fade against the Broncos, classic spot, and then we
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: got him right against the Eagles. Well, you got him right,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I followed along. Meanwhile, Atlanta, they're just grinding out games,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I know, and so like it's hard to discount the
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: fact that they are playing to their strengths. They are
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: playing well defensively. Raheem Morris is a really good coach.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: They barely lost that game to the Chiefs. They ground
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: out another win last week with the last second field goal. Like,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: I don't want to play either of these teams, neither
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: of the trends that you just mentioned. You want to
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: play the home teams on Thursday nights. You want to
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: play against the division dogs when they are You want
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: to play against division dogs, especially short dogs, you know,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: like forty five against the spread home division faves. I
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, Yeah, it's tough, the tough one. I
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: think it's it's a total like watch and enjoy and
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: maybe put together a ten dollars you know, SGP from
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: whatever we've got running on the Action Network. See what
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Nick Giffen has to say. But I don't, I don't
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: really have an opinion on this game. I don't. I
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: can't force it. The New York Jets, Minnesota, it's the
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: London game. Minnesota is a two and a half point favorite.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: And look, this one got hit really fast. We didn't
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: even talk about this on Sunday night. The game opened
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: late Sunday afternoon and the Vikings were like a half
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: point favorite, and within less than an hour the Vikings
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: were all of a sudden at two and a half.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: And so what is that telling you right now.
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: That this game is over in Europe? That's really what
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: this line's telling me you. Historically, if you just are
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: trending better, you're always better the favorites when it's over
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: in England. It's just historically that's the team that usually
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: covers and wins. To me, this is a game I
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: wanted to be all over the Jets, and I was
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: pissed when I found out this was in England, because
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, if this was in Minnesota, you know,
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: this line probably would have been four and a half
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: five the Valley would have been on the Jets. And
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: this is a good matchup for Aaron Rodgers. Like this,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: this defense that floors is running. It's really good against young,
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: inexperienced quarterbacks. I really haven't seen a lot of extic,
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: you know, type of defenses.
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers has seen it at all. He'd be able
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: to figure it out and pick it apart.
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: And you know, now I want to join the general
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: public and just take the Vikings because this is an
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: international game. I usually just blindly bet the favorites here,
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: but I'll wait. If this gets the three, I'll throw
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: a lit on the Jets. But same kind of thing.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: It's just a game. I'm not gonna really be betting
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: heavy because I just hate betting these international games. And
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: there's any type of rain, there's no way I'm betting
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: on the Jets. They looked so horrible in that rain
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: last week. It just that's more reasons to bet this
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: Vikings team. They just look like the more comfortable and
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: more complete team.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Right now.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: But this is usually the type of game we like
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: to go the other way on, especially against a team
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: that's four and oh against the spread and four and
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: oh against the season.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: But I have to wait another week. CHAT don't know
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: if we're going to mess with this international one now.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Look, the favorites are thirty four and ten straight up
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: and thirty ten against the spread.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: I know, right, that's crazy.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: There is a bigger question here, and like you're right
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: about Brian Flores and what he has been able to
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: do this Jets team. I feel like when you have
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: to manage people as a boss, you have to be
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: so cognizant of what you're saying at all times, and
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: oftentimes you need to play to the nuance of language,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: and I feel like to make sure that everyone is
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: on the same page, or to make sure that people
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: aren't getting upset about the way you're saying something or
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: what you're saying. I feel like Robert sala is at
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: that stage of the relationship with Aaron Rodgers where every
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: week they are trying to explain something to show that
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: their relationship is fine. Two weeks ago it was the Hug,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: right this week, there's a story when he's talking about
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: the cadence, he's talking about the operation. Then he needs
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: to backtrack and say, our operation is great. We're trying
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: to push the edge of the envelope with the Cadence.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: All because there were five fall starts for the Jets
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: this past week and they look like an undisciplined, poorly
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: coached team and Aaron Rodgers is getting frustrated with this.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: But do you get what I'm saying, Like, have you
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: noticed that? Do you see that? To me? That doesn't
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: builde well for this Jets team right now?
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind that stuff at all. Honestly, I
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: think it's a good open dialogue. But I liked what
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers said back of well, maybe we should just
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: hold people accountable, which is the damn truth. It's like,
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: you're out of your mind, sal if you think Aaron
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: Rodgers should change the type of style he plays, especially
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: what he does the offensive line. It's a rhythm thing.
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: They'll they'll get it together. That's just a classic throw
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: the game out. You know, if their Kickerdy missed that
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: field goal, they would have won the game. Then who
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: really cares?
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: Right, But obviously it's not ideal, But at the same time, it's.
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: Like, yeah, I don't care, it's it's just that's the
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: way their team's gonna be, right. I think Aaron Rodgers
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: the type of guy that he will always speak his mind,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: especially to the media.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: We've seen that when he goes on his weekly show
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: every week.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: So it's like he's not he doesn't worry, it doesn't matter,
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: put it out there. So if Sala is gonna open
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: himself up to that stuff, you know, Sala's gonna gonna
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: get a lot of pushback.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, poor Sala. He finally gets a quarterback that
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: can maybe help this team win, and it just happens
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: to be the most unmanageable quarterback who's going to make
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: him look come on, he cannot control this team in
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: any way, shape or form. At any time.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: I would say he can control his defense. But this
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: is Aaron Rodgers' offense.
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: So that's why I think Aaron was a little pissy
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: where it's just like, you know, he had a dog
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: shit game. The offense played like shit, the defense played great,
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: And I think that's why there's a.
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: Little bit of head button there.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: But yeah, not ideal, like you're saying, all right, well,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: we're over too so far. Normally this would be a
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: spot where we smash.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: We can't put this in the contest anyway, No, well.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Why we can't put a Sunday London game in the contest.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: I thought last year we couldn't, but I could be wrong.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: That's that is correct, all right.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: We can't do that.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: We can't play get it together.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: God, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Sorry. It's been a very
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: long day so far, Miami at New England. If we
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: wanted to put this in the contest, we could. I
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: feel like this is a game, one of those games where,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: all right, somebody's got to win the game. We think
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the line has flipped since last night, when the Dolphins
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: looked worse than they possibly could and Mike McDaniels actually
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: said after the game there will be some changes. And
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: yet the Pats looked there worse for a second week
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: in row, completely uncompetitive against the Niners. And I don't
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: like betting a flipped favorite. So it feels like this
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: is another pass.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: Right it is, I know, and I mean there are
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: there are again, there are games coming up that I
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: absolutely love, So don't don't freak out people, But this
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: is another game you're right, It's like I wanted to
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: take the Patriots. They were going to be a home dog.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: This was gonna be like a no brainer play. Now
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: it's flipped and it's like, at what point does their
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: value on this Miami team? Because you're right, these are
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: just two terrible teams. I guess we'll just bet the under.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: Let's see what the total is down to now, because
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: I know it was it was moving last night. Yeah,
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: it's you know, it's down to thirty five and a half,
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: so probably not gonna take it, but it was it
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: was thirty seven last night, and it's like, oh, that's
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: there's some value there. So yeah, just both both teams
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: look like they're going to finish down towards the bottom
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: of the AFC this year. It's just not going well
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: for either team right now.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: I hope Mike McDaniels doesn't get fired. I think the
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: NFL is more fun and more interesting with him in it.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: You're not as sentimental like as I am on.
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: That no, and especially because like I liked him at first,
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: but I knew if there was any if there was
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: a if they're ever going to start losing games, people
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: are gonna hate this guy.
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: Immediately.
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: They're just there's a quality to him of like, why
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: are you so cocky nonchalant, dude, You've never even won
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: a playoff game? Like what is this always wearing white
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: with the cool shades down in Miami type of attitude.
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: So I get why their fans are just starting to
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: turn on this guy because if he was a Philly guy,
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: oh my god, I would I would absolutely hate this
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: guy if he was up in Philadelphia. But if he
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: was my offensive coordinator, kind of love him. Think he's
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: kind of a genius. So I'm with you, Chad. It's like,
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: I think the guy has the skills, I just don't
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: know if he's got the head coach qualities.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: This might be the shortest podcast we've ever done because
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: we clearly can't find a game that we're going to
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: bet on. Simon, once again, I'm going to ask you
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: one of the bed rock questions of our relationship. What
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: is the best ticketing app in the United States?
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's Game Time. As longtime listeners, now, I'm
• 18:36
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• 19:43
  Speaker 1: dollars off. We're getting to a game, okay, Carolina at Chicago.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: We cash betting the Bears in the exact right spot
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: last week, Simon. Indeed, this Sunday, the first game we
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: identified on the show Sunday Night Carolina plus five. The
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: line was down to three and a half Monday afternoon.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Now it's it's settled in at four. Give me your
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: thoughts here.
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was your first bet, A game I loved
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: as well. I think, you know, a couple of books
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: had popped all way up to five five and a
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: half and we talked that was just way too high.
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: Now it's right where it should be. Like, I still
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: like Carolina, still think this is a nice number, especially
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: with Andy Dalton. You know, I think this is gonna
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: be a good back and forth. But it's all about Carolina.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: Run the ball against your team, right, can Chrue Hubbard
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: and Miles Sanders the one two punch really dominate this
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: game because that's how they're gonna have to win this game.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: They're not gonna be able to win it with any Dalton, right.
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: I just think your secondary is just too good. And
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: another side, Caleb's got to do it here. Like you know,
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: me and Evan did a show before this and Maven
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: had a great bet. It was like, who you gonna
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: bet this week to throw over a touchdown and a
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: half Watson against this terrible Commanders defense or Williams against
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: this horrible.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: Secondary of Carolina.
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: And it was tough, but picking between those two guys,
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: it's like, man, Caleb's got to do it here, like
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: this is a good matchup for him passing, and why
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: so not not one of the games I'm like super
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: happy to take now that it's moved so much. But again,
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: if it's four to four and a half, I could
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: get there. Like it just feels like that's too much
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: respect to a rookie that really hasn't deserved that much respect.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: And a team we've seen historically have you know, good
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: wins and then just played terrible the next game, right,
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: because they're a young team. It's just it's been up
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: and down this season with this Bears team. So yeah,
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: once again, great initial read by you, but the professionals
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: will follow it, and they've bet this down by two
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: points point and a half.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Well, the professionals often bible me. I know they're listening
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: to the show and they hear my insight. They're like,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: we better get that number before it moves. I don't mind.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: I thought it was two much at five. Having watched
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: every snap of every Bears game, I feel like I
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: know this team and when they're trending and which way
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: in that they shouldn't be five point favorites against anybody.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: And if you've watched football the last two weeks. The
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers are just a better team with Andy Dalton right,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: and their pass blocking is number two in the NFL
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, and that does neutralize what
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: is probably one of the best elements of the Bears
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: defense right now, which has been their pass rush. And
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: we saw it last week. It's a bad offensive line,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: like they were all over Matthew Stafford. So I think
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: four is probably a little bit too high. Still, it
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: feels like it should be three. If we can get
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: it four and a half in the contest, I bet
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: it gets in there. It will not be It will
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: not be my executive decision. All Indianapolis at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: This is a tough one, really tough one. On Sunday night,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: we leaned Indie plus three. It's down to two and
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: a half. Good instincts by you. We have the classic
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Bilo cell high philosophy versus the historical trend philosophy, the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: culture high. Jags are low. Last week we bought low
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: or sold high on the Bears, Steelers, Raiders, Baltimore and
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: it totally worked. But we played the Division Dogs and
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: the Chargers and the Vikings, and we faded home division
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: faves in a bad spot in Houston and Green Bay.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: So do we fade the division fave in the Jags?
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Did we buy the failing team in the Jacks?
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: And I'm shocked, Like when I talked to you know,
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: I was in Atlantic City yesterday, I'm talking to bookmakers.
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: I'm like, you guys aren't getting any Jags money, right, Like,
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: no one's everyone's taking the Colts.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: And he's like, shockingly, it's the cementa Jags money.
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: And I think everyone's looking the same thing where it's like,
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: are they really about to be zero for five? I
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: mean they're the only zero to four team right now
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: in football? And if this ain't it, this is it? Right?
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: Like this feels like this is the game for Doug Peterson,
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: Like if this team likes him at all.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: They show up here. It's a lot, a lot to
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: put onto this team.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: And obviously, you know, me and you both thought fright
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: away were like that's too high with the Colts.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Why is this number not down to one?
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: That's my big concern here, Like that means professional money
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: is still keeping this up on this Jaguars team. So
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, this is a game where I'll have
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: a better read on Thursday once we know what Anthony
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: Richardson's doing. Because to me, if it's Anthony Richardson coming
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: back from an injury being forced into this game.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: I like the Jaguars.
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: If it's Joe Flacco after a full week of taking
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: first team reps, I kind of like the Colts there,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: especially at a plus number. I just think that offense
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: will be better suited with a veteran like Joe Flah.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: Then what me and you have experienced every time we
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: bet the Colts this year, right, you never know what's
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: gonna happen on the next play with Anthony Richardson, which
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: you know we didn't mind because we're like, you know what,
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: they'll figure it out. They have a good offense with
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: Joe Flacco. It's like, Okay, he might give us one
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: or two really bad throws that could turn into a
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: really bad interception, but the rest of it's just so smart.
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: Like even going back watching that game, he came off
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: the bench. I mean, that's why you get a guy
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: like that, like he came in no first team reps.
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: The offense isn't built around him, right, I know, obviously
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: they switch it up on the fly there, but it
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: was like, this is this is why he's such a
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: good guy to.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: Have as a backup here.
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: So yeah, that's my view on this right now, Chad.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: It's like a game I'll bet on Thursday, but right
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: now I'm just gonna keep holding our Colts plus three ticket,
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: not really doing anything with this game.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Joe Flacco is elite, as he likes to say. This
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Jacks team is a freaking mess. So think about the
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: trends for a second home faves against division opponents since
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: twenty fifteen forty five percent against the spread, short home
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: faves since twenty sixteen against the division opponent forty five
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread. This Jacks team, Evan Ingram likely
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: still out. Josh heinz Allen left the game with a concussion.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: The defense is terrible, and that was before they were
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: missing defensive backs who won't be on the field this
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: week as they were not last week. They are one
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: to nine since they won in Houston in November to
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: get to eight to three last season, thirty first in
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: point margin at minus forty nine, only above the Panthers,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: who by the way, are getting better, Like would you
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: rather be a Panthers fan or Jaguars fan. Right now,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: that's the problem with this Jacks team is like it is,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: it is just so so ugly, and yet we might
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: want to bet him.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, might not bet them this week.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: That's terrible, that's awful. So kind of another one Buffalo
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: with Houston. Houston is now a one point favorite. Neither
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: of these teams are making it really easy, right, Like
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: the Ravens were really exposed, really exposed the Bill's weaknesses,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: especially in the middle field, especially against the run. Derrick
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Henry finished the game with almost two hundred yards one
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: ninety nine and nearly ten yards per carry. Like, the
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Texans are not as good without Joe Mixon, but CJ.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Shroud like should be able to carve up this defense
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: with Nico Collins, who is a giant of a human
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: being running over the middle.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, brutal too, and Nico Collins mean chat made a
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: bet on Cooper Cupp who's going to lead the league
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: in receiving yards and the other guy on my list
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: was Nico.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: Collins And now, oh, you never told me that.
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And the only reason I didn't want to hammer
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: him on the show was just because of Stefan dis
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: like I let that get me too scared off, or
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: it's like, well they'll spread the ball around or at
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: least Cooper Cup. If Puka goes down, he's the guy
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: we don't have to deal with the tank Dallas Dick.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: So I think Nego Collins is like two hundred yards
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: up on the closest guy and second something crazy like that.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: You're right.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: We talked Sunday night. I said, grab the Bills plus
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: two right now, just in case they roll this Ravens
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: team and you get a good number. They got blown
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: out and this number has moved three points in that direction.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: Chet. So the professionals don't care. They love the Bills in.
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: The spot, and I think they kind of have the
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: same view a lot of us did coming in the
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: year of Okay.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: CJ.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: Stroud did great last year, but he was so great
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: because no one saw it coming, and defense doesn't have
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: a ton of tape to build off of it. This year,
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: it all feels like it's been a grind for them,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: right that all their games they win are close. Right now,
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: they're three to one with a minus fifteen point differential,
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: like it's the only team with that, Like they're the
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: only team that has that type of record with that
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: type of point differential on. It's just because you know,
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: they've won close games and they got rolled against that
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: Vikings team. So to me, this is now at the
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: point where Evan's gonna have the trendses too. But like,
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: we're gonna have to take Houston, especially if this number
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: keeps going. If this touch is two two and a half,
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: this is an automatic play in the contest because that's
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: just too much disrespect for this Houston.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Team at home.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: And me and you like to bet CJ is a
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: dog like that. Till last year we kind of were
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: stayed away from as a favorite, but as a dog,
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: we love CJ. He's just really good when he's kind
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: of counted out in these positions. So this is like
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: a perfect spot for a Houston team that they're zero
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: to four against the spread. Because the books, they knew
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: the public will keep coming in on them. They could
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: set the line and every week, whether it was a
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: half a point they wouldn't cover by or they were
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: a getting rolled, they kept not covering. I think we're
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: finally gonna get caught up here with the book chat.
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: I think we're gonna finally get a good number year
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: on Houston. That's gonna have the value for them and
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: top you said the name Joe Mixon, That to me
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: is what I'm waiting for here. Like, if he's guaranteed
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: to play this game, he's good to go. That to
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: me is a huge dealt to this Houston team. You
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: just seen his identity really changed his team early in
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: the season when he was playing, how they could just
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: lean on their run and make everything else so much
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: easier on offense. So I like that you brought up
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: his name. Just that's something people to keep an eye
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: on this week. If Joe Mix is going to be
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: finally practicing.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: The line flip also is something, yeah, a trend that
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: we always like to look at it, And now it feels
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: like we're getting a at least a comparable team to
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: the Bills at home. Also might be getting them at
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: a little point. So I like the idea of playing
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Houston here. I do think it has a good chance
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: of getting into the contest, depending on how this number moves.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: I think it's optimistic to think it might get to
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: two or two and a half. I think it's probably
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: settling in at that one. To two range. I still
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be that afraid to play the Texans, though, if
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: I can get them as underdog in the contest, I
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: kind of like it either way.
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: You're right, the books will eventually take a stand, but
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: I think I'll just keep moving because it's professional money
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: moving it right now, like action app it's what bets.
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: Eighty percent of the money right now is on the bills.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: So yeah, you know, eventually you're right. The pros will
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: come back in on it, but they're going to keep
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: moving it eventually.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: I'm always right, just sometimes it takes time, but I
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: tell my wife, eventually I'm going to be right. Give
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: it five years, ten years, thirty years, whatever it takes.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: One of these days, it's gonna happen. You know, what
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: is right, Simon, what's right is Tommy John. I mentioned
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: to you at the top of the show that we
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: are coming live from the Tommy John Home studios. That's
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: because great games start with great underwear, and Tommy John
• 31:48
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  Speaker 1: our big balls better of the week since we started
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: wearing our Tommy John underwear on the Thursday show. When
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: we make that call I don't think so oh, got
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: a huge box of swag from Tommy John yesterday. I'm
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: wearing wearing right now, very soft, like I don't even
• 32:09
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• 32:29
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• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Simon Baltimore's Cincinnati we got a good spot here, Cincinnati
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: plus three home dog. It's a good spot for home dogs.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Are we primed to sell high on the Ravens here
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: and buy a struggling Bengals team.
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: Simon says, grab the plus three right now. When Simon says,
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: we do what Simon says.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: There's no way this last. It's gonna go to plus
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: two and a half. It has to come back down.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: This is just way too much movement. I knew coming
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: into this week we were probably gonna be on them.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: I think we talked Sunday night. I said the number
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: was plus one on Cincy. Don't touch this weight. Even
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: if they lose the Ravens Rockets still see that number moving.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: And they went the other way where they blew that
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: team out, And now it's moved the whole point in
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: a half and now it's two and a half. Some
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: books up to three. Like you just said, so too
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: much of a reaction to this team. And we talk
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: all the time, these divisional games are just different. You
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: have to think about them differently. You have to view
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: it differently because these teams are just so familiar with
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: each other. And you know, as dominant the Ravens looked
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: in that game, there was still some part of me
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: that's just like, there's still a way to attack this team,
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: and there's still a way to get away with why
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: they're not you know, this overwhelming the league diminant team
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: like they were last year. So to me, the line
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: reflects the public reaction to this. But I am shocked
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: and moved this much. I'm just shocked professionals that have
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: moved this much because I already loved Sinceanty come to
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: this game, and now you know, when you really dive
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: into the numbers, Joe Burrow, he's playing an MVP level.
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: It's another little bet I'm gonna steal from Evan. If
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: you like me and you like the Bengals to pull
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: the upset off and win this game, you might as
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: well go through a little bet on Joe Burrow to
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: b MVP because if he wins this game and he's
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: all right, so this team starts zero for three this year,
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: they win this divisional game. Now they're two to three,
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: you know, just like the Ravens, and we see the
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: season play out and he does win this division. I
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: could see it being a great value bet right now
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: in Joe Burrow because he just played so well this
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: season and just the way their defenses as well. I
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: feel like he's always gona keep putting up stats. Right
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: He's got seven touchdowns win interception right now, I see
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: that keep being getting better throughout the season because there's
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: just going to be so much put onto his shoulders
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: to lead this offense. So I love the offensive style
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati matching up for this Baltimore defense. And then on
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: the flip side, we've just seen it before, like Cincinnati
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: always plays them really tough, Like defensively, Eve only had
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: their backup in last year that came down to the
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: last possession type of game. So I do like the
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati team, but I am shocked. Shocked you can get
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: a plus three right now.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe Burrow has been playing great. We loved this
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: team heading into the season. It's been disappointing that they
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: are zero and three and look for talking about one
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: in three now, I mean one in three Home division
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: dog trends September October the division dog in the last
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: decade at home sixty percent against the spread fifty four percent,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: so a slight ROI positive since twenty two, three to
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: zero to one against the spread this season home division dogs.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it's the exact right spot to play the Bengals.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: You gotta do it. Here's a crazy stat though about
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. Forget about how well he played the other
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: night against Buffalo, one hundred and ninety nine yards first
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: play the game, eighty seven yard touchdown run Simon he
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: reached twenty one point two nine miles per hour when
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: he was running for that touchdown. According to Next Gen Stats,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: that's the fourth fastest speed by anyone any ballcarrier this year.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think of Derrick Henry and automatically think, oh, yeah,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: this guy's so speedy. He's reached a speed of twenty
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: miles per hour or faster twenty seven times since twenty eighteen.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Only one player has done it more than him. We kill.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: Is that insane?
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: He's just when you think of like the great freak
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: athletes ever played this sport, you know, Calvin Johnson, Derrick
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: Henry is like right up there. Like I always think
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: of all those old bow Bow Knows commercials when it
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: was like, yeah, this is what we envisioned him to be,
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: and it's like, Derrick Henry's him times ten. Right. It's
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: just especially what it's a year thirty he's I mean,
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: he's thirty years old this year.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: It's year it's year thirty for him in the NFL.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: I mean I just thought he would be dropped off.
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: I was one of those people where was like, uh,
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: it's an upgrade for the Ravens at the running back position,
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: but how much tread does he have left in.
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: The tires apparently a lot.
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: Apparently last year he might have taken the year off,
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: and he's got a plenty left. So yeah, that first
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: play was just it's the best. I like, there's nothing
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: like first play. Run, hits the whole right, and then
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: they're just gone. I think it's I'd have that fact check,
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: but I believe it was like the longest play or
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: running back has ever had in Ravens history.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: So fat he's running. Evan says that is correct simon
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: the fact he's running twenty miles an hour and doing
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: it more often than anybody in the league's since since
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: other than Tyreek Hill. Is phenomenal because you only think
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: about him as being the guy who gets the hard yards,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: who stiff arms people, who runs people over, who makes
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: people look bad. I don't think I really had a
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: full understanding or appreciation of just how superhuman he is
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: as an athlete. I'll tell you what those State Farm
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: commercials don't do it.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: You're alive.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at Washington. Washington is a three point favorite. I
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: want to fade the Commanders so badly here. But this
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Browns team, it's not even Deshaun Watson. It's their offensive line,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: like now Ethan Poseick, the center who left the game
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: last weekendst the Raiders. He's day to day with an
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: ankle injury. And when you look at the Browns, don't
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: forget last week we had the Raiders at like a
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: short number is a favorite, one, one and a half, two,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: whatever it was. I don't know, I don't remember talking
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: to you about this. When the Raiders all of a sudden,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: we're underdogs because Crosby was out, Adams was out whatever.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I didn't buy out of my bet. I just let
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: it ride with the Raiders that win and a AX,
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I don't think it matters. I don't think
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: this Cleveland king team can do anything.
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we actually we did talk a upon of contentst
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: because they're two and a half in our contest. We're like,
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: should we take it?
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: And then we just again we didn't want to lose
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: the numbers we.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Had, But yeah, that's that Cardinals bet in there.
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Now, I think it was honestly because we didn't
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: want to lose the seven and a half on the
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: charger because that was six and a half, which being
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: the right move.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it's I don't know what to deal with
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Because it's really you want to bet the Browns.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: It's honestly, we're making a bet though on Schwartz in
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: this defense. That's that's like the position here.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: It's like, okay, the defense that is getting crushed right now.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: I know, and we talked coming in the year.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: This is why I didn't like the Browns though, because
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: we've seen in his circle of data with Schwartz, his
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: defense is really dominant one year and then the next
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: year they're they're completely not the same, like whatever that is.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: They just don't carry it over from year to year.
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: And that's usually how it is with defenses, right, It's
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: just so hard to carry that type of momentum from
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: year to year, you know, mixing that MOUs Garrett's you know,
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: gonna have to get Shurger're on his feet whenever this
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: whenever he is and ever the season is over.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: What are we betting here?
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: Like everything in my body, even my model likes Washington, Like,
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: I still think this number is too low fishy and
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: like someone someone messages me like, oh, it's because Nick
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: Chubb's coming back.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: I promise you.
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: The sports books aren't holding this number here because Nick
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: Chubb's coming back. That's that they do not care, and
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: I'm the same thing. I him coming off a major
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: knee injury in his first start. Yeah, it's good for Cleveland,
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: but like, does it really move the needle that much?
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: I don't think so.
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: So maybe I'll have the better read my talk to
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: some other professionals. But like, I haven't made a single
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: bet on this game. It got the three at one
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: point Washington. As soon as I called the book to
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: make a bet on it, they moved it right back
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: up to three, and so I never was able to
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: get the three on Washington.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: So fishy, fishy line this week. This is one of
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: the fishy air lines this week, and.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: I just have no read on it where it's like
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: the pro in me is like, dude, you got to
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: take Cleveland hearing me, But the guy who's watched football
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: through four weeks is just like one team has never
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: been more sure of itself and confident in its ability.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: The other team has totally lost. And Chad just said
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: they have even more injuries now to that offensive line.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: The Commanders are averaging thirty points a game and they
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: have scored more points each week than they did the
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: week before.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: That's crazy.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels, who I feel like you started talking about
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: him as potential offensive rookie of the year before the
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: season started. Am I remembering that correctly?
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we loved them.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: We said it was just basically that why should Williams
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: be the odds on favorite guy? It's like their skill
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: level wasn't that different. I just my whole pushback was just,
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: at the end of the day, if they're both six
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: and ten, seven to ten, it's like if it's a
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: coin flip, they're gonna get it to every's a better
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: stat So I thought it should have been closer number.
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: But yeah, it wasn't a I wish it was a table.
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: I was like banging on the table, being like, you
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: have to bet Jaden Daniels, but nothing like that.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Well, Jaden Daniels has completed more than eighty two percent
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: of his passes. Crazy eighty seven for one oh six.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: That's not that's like for the season. It's the two
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: most accurate back to back performances against Cincinnati and Arizona
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: the past two weeks by anyone. Ever. No one has
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: ever had a more accurate first four games. And by
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the way, he's got two hundred and eighteen rushing yards.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: It's the second most by a quarterback in his first
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: four games other than RG three. We talked about those comps,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: like this guy is flashing CJ. Stroud vibes for this
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: Washington team, and after four games, I feel like the
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: projection what you see is what you get. It's not
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: he's going to all of a sudden crater. He might
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: toe play well like he's he's a good quarterback, like
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: he's fitting into this league. He's going to make the
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: right decisions. He's not a rookie quarterback who you need
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: to desperately be afraid of.
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: He will hit the rookie wall, though. That's inevitable. Everyone
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: everyone hits it. That's just why, Like you know, Ev't
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: had that amazing stat a couple of years ago, and
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: pretty minute the NFC Championship game, and they lost because
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: no rookie ever makes it pass that championship game.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: Even they lost that because they tore his arm off.
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but I'm saying, just historically, even go back further,
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: I'm saying it never happens, just because eventually you do
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: hit that wall, Like eventually they do get enough film
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: on these rookies that a team they run into a
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: team that is good enough to figure out that game
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: plan right now. It's like, even if they it's the
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: best defense in football, how do you not feel confident
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: right now in this kid? Even I know he's beat
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: up on bad defenses, but he just looks so cool, calm, collected,
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: and you just right off to all those numbers. It's like,
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: even if he takes a little step down, it's still
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: an all pro level. That's what's so impressive about this
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: kid right now.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: If he takes a little step down, then all of
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: a sudden, he's having a slightly worse start to his
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: career than Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes right right, Seriously,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: that's what happens.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: So I don't know what to deal with it.
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: Like I said, I eventually it's gonna come the other
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: way though, because teams will get more film on them,
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: and it just like, there's a reason these coaches are getting.
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: Paid millions of dollars.
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: They're really good at what they do, and they do
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: eventually figure you out and how to make you uncomfortable
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: and get in your head a little bit. But he's
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: playing like a quarterback that is not thinking totally immersing
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: the offense and he looks like someone that's never taken
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: a really bad hit in the pocket, right He just
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: he's so confident in the pocket right now. Even in
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: games where he's gotten blown up, he gets back up
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: and he's just so cool. Calm doesn't even phase him.
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: So again, Washington fans, you just I can't imagine being
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: a fan of Washing right now.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: It's gotta be the best filling in the world.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Bears fans might disagree with you about. These coaches are
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: really good at what they do and that's why they
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: get paid millions a million. These defenses are right, Yeah,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: I'm not talking about that. I'm not talking about our
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator Las Vegas and Denver. Denver is a two
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Look, this is a spot
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: where we should probably want to fade the home division favorite.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: I've said this a bunch of times. What's weird to
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: me is we both talked about this on Sunday. It
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: was a two and a half. It's the game we
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: wanted to bet at two and a half. This number
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: went down to two, but then all of a sudden
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: yesterday it went up to two and a half, and
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: then it was at three, and I don't understand now
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: it's back down to two and a half. I don't
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: understand why it went up to three and why the
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: wise guys aren't pouring in on this game because I
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: think I still love the Raiders here.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do too. I think it's a view of it.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: The vibes might be horrible in Las Vegas and what's
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: going on with all the injuries there.
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: So I'm sure you saw this morning, DeVante Adams is
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: getting asked all these questions by Ky Adams. It's like,
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: why is your coach liking post about you being traded?
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: Have you have you heard anything from the team? And
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: Adam Schefter is reporting that apparently this team's exploring trade
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: options for Devonte Adams. So you know, maybe this guy's
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: a cancer and he's helping drag this team down this week.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: And that's what guys are thinking.
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: It's like, well, I don't want to bet this team
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: with all this turmoil going on where they're trying to
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: trade their number one receiver.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: I kind of look at the other way. It's like
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: he didn't play last week.
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: In the offense, they seem like they moved the ball
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: pretty well, right, and obviously they'd be better if he
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: was in there, but they're not totally reliant on him.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: I think, I mean you, the biggest reason we wanted
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: to take this is we're getting to fade. Bo Nicks
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: is a favorite, yes, like automatically right already, where it's
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: like we want to be on divisional dogs in the
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: first place. Now you're mixing that it's a rookie QB
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: favoriteed same reason we kind of like like the Panthers,
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: it's like, as much as respect we want to give
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: you these rookies, all three of them are favored right
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: now this week, and it's like that usually does not
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: bode well for a bunch of rookies, And the only
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: one we're really terrified to fade is the best looking one,
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: right Jay and Daniels and the other two, I think
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: we're both in the same mentality of like, yeah, i'll
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: take that plus three on the Raiders, I'll take that
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: plus two and a half. So it's another bet where
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: I bet it. No need to put any more on
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: it if you've already bet it. Let's wait and see
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: what if Max Crosby's back, Like what the injury report
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: is for this upcoming week for this Raiders team, but
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: this is like a game I was like, this is
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: probably be one of me and Chad's five. Now, if
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: this gets up to three three and a half and
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: we can put in our contest at that number, this
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: is a no brainer play if we're catching over three
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: against boon Nicks in a divisional game. So yeah, this
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: is a game I really like. Only fear is we
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: don't really know what's going on with the health wise
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: of this Raiders team.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: I'll be very interested to see what the sharp calls
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: are here, because this also might end up being a
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: foxhol Like you and I just might be liking the
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: Raiders and everyone else might be seeing something. And it's
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: not about the Broncos offense. It's really about is their
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: defense better than people think.
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: I do have a really good pass rush, I'll say, like,
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: thanks for bringing that up. They do have some dogs
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: up front.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: They've got like their defense is much much better than
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: I think people are giving them credit for. And it's
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: why they've been able to stay in games against the Seahawks.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: It's why they were able to stay in the game
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: against the Jets and ultimately win that game. Obviously the
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: weather held, But when you've got a quarterback who is,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: by the way, having the worst outing in a game
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: since nineteen sixty five. He had a whopping sixty yards
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: and averaged two point four yards per pass, the third
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: lowest average YPA by any quarterback with twenty five or
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: more pass in modern history. In the Super Bowl, I
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: love him.
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: And guess what your early four games, four wins away
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: for Denver hitting their win total over So yeah, that's
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: that was a pretty big win last week.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: We love us some Sean Payton, We truly do. He's
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: the better's friend Arizona at San Francisco. San Francisco seven
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. A couple of trends are
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: forcing us to take the Cardinals seriously right now, Home
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: division faves forty five percent since twenty fifteen, dogs of
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: six or more, eight and five straight up against the spread,
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: twelve and one through twelve and one against spread through
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: the first few games. I'm sorry, I got update that
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: it's nine to eight straight up, fourteen to two to
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: one against the spread through the first four weeks. We
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: don't want to take the Cardinals, but I think we
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: have to take the Cardinals.
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: I think we might have to take the forty nine
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: ers some well respected guys, friend, like the forty nine ers,
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: and I don't want to go against them. I know
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: I wanted to be on the Cardinals here, like this
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: is a big number. Big big dogs have been covering
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: this number. Big dogs have been winning outright at this number.
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: I might be getting bullied into the forty nine ers,
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: your brother, just some I'm just telling on you to
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: be careful with this.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Listen, you be careful. You be careful. You know why.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: You know why. We've been getting bullied all season on
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: some games, and every time we get bullied and go
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: against our instincts, we end up being wrong. Number of
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: the Packers. Yes, the Packers last weekend talking Minnesota. True,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: we were talking Minnesota the whole week.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: I love them.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: We talk on Sunday morning. You're like, I'm getting bullied
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: right now, kind of like the Packers.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: I'm like, these guys guys win big money.
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: Brother, you wanted to make the forty nine ers our
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: foxhole bet, and I wouldn't let you do it because
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: a big time sharp message meing was like stay away
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: from the forty nine ers. Now, I fucked up by
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: some because I was like, well, we go ahead and
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: fade that guy and take this team against the Vikings,
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: which was an idiot move.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: But yeah, that I just want to throw caution.
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: There's there's there's some really smart people right now in
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: this forty nine ers team, and it's just I need
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: more time in this one because right now I got
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: this model at six. So it's like I got a
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: point in a half of value on this Cardinals team.
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: I'm clearly missing something here, and maybe it's me being
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: too high on Kyler and not probably rating him because
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: we all got sucked in. He played great against the Bills,
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: you know, first half wise, and then he dominated the Rams,
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: had literally a perfect game, and it's just been shit
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: since then. Like you know that that was a brutal beat,
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: specially for me last week where he drove the field,
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: I just over a touchdown and a half first drive,
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: drives a field, throws a touchdown pass, and then he
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: just does nothing the rest of the game. So I
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: think that's the hesitation chat. I think the pros are
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: hesitating on him. Where Brock Purdy, he's sneakily what the
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: third or fourth best playing quarterback right now football, Like,
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: I know he's not getting the flowers because they're two
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: and two. But man, he's been playing incredible this season
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: rock Purty, So I think that's hesitation here. We have
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: one team playing the best they've looked all season. On
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: the flip side, we don't know what the hell of
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: this Cardinals team is. They just have now looked right
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: these last two weeks.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: This is when you buy.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: I agree.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: What are the stats when you are betting on the
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: team that just blown out versus the team that just
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: blew so right? This is the exact spot to bet
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals. Evan. If before the end of the show,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: you can give us the blowout stats, that would be amazing.
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: Because I like this. This makes no sense, it makes Please.
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Get me on the Cardinals. Man, I don't I want
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: to get there.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: It makes no sense at all. Nobody bullies my bff Simon.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: Nobody, they do. They do Chad New York.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: Giants at Seattle. Seattle's minus six and a half look
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: before before the game last night. Brandon Anderson on his
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: show with Evan Abrams Sunday Nights Action netwrapot download listen,
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: great show. He has his hot reat segment. He liked
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: the Giants or he liked the Seahawks. That I think
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: it was minus five or five and a half. That
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: number lasted for about as long as it took Brandon
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Anderson to say, take the Seahawks at minus five or
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: five and a half. It's settled in at six and
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: a half. Hasn't really moved since the Seahawks were blown
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: out last night. I kind of think Seattle is the
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: right side. The Giants aren't very good, the Seahawks. They
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: just met the Lions team at the exact right time.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: It never made sense to me why wise guys were
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: buying the Seahawks. We talked about this. Now they get
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: to go back to playing bad quarterbacks and bad teams
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: and fooling professionals into thinking they are amazing.
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: But at what point is this number two high? I
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: think you just said it. It's like it's up the
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: plus six. How much respect do we want to give
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: this Seahawks team? Do they just deserve all this respect
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: that this team is getting right now, and especially where.
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: They're on a short week.
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: I know they're at home, but they're playing They're on
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: a short week, playing against a team that had extended rest.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: And we're getting late.
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: I know it doesn't feel like we're getting late to
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: the season here, but this is week five, Like that's
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: a big deal to these guys' bodies to heal that way.
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: So ah, man, I want to be in the Giants,
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: but I'll just wait. Give me, give me a six
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: and a half, sports books. Let me get a six
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: and a half so I can come in the summer.
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: But it's six.
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: I guess I'll just wait here at this point, Chad.
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I actually kind of like the Giants in
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: this spot.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to the Cardinals for a second,
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: because I think I like thee I like I like
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks in this spot. I like it up to
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: seven Cardinals. I don't even know what the final score
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: of that game was. I stopped watching it because.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: I was forty five fourteen.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: I think forty five to fourteen. Teams to lose by
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: seventeen versus a team who won by seventeen the previous
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: week sixty percent against the spread the past twenty years.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: One matchup meets this criteria this week Arizona Cardinals, Evan.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: How about teams that have been blown out by thirty
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: points or more the following week against the spread? Let's
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: see what that one is. And while you look that up.
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: All I heard was I have a four and ten
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: chance of hitting that forty nine ers.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: But well, that that's, by the way, that's the beauty
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: of the betting, right. It is like, and we've talked
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: about this. We go two and three, we go two
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: and three, we go one and four. We just as
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: easily could have gone three two three, two, four and
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: one if not for the tiny, most infinitesimal percentages, the
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: best probabilistic thinking. Green Bay at the Los Angeles Rams.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams are three and a half point home underdogs. Look,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: I think the Packers in the second half last week
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: with Jordan Love started to get back into form. I
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: think this Rams team is unhealthy mentally, unhealthy physically. They're struggling.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: I think if Jaye Alexander comes back. He did not play,
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: and that was a big deal in the loss of
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, justin Jefferson with them up. I like the
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Packers here.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I took the Rams of three and a half.
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, though I thought I was gonna be
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: in the Packers just because it's like, Okay, Jordan Love
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: Hardy got his little you know, bad game out of
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: the way. He should tear up this Rams secondary. Then
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: you kind of dive into it. It's like, this actually
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: isn't that bad of a matchup for this Rams team
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: who wants to run the ball, and it seems like
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: Green Bay that's kind of their weakness right now. Teams
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: could kind of run the ball against him and that
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: sets up the pass, which is what Stafford needs. I mean,
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: you just saw it against the Bears team. It's like
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: once the Bears finally took away the run, that's how
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: they shut down that team last week. So this is
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: a very telling line Chat that it's it's heavy professional
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: money coming in on the Rams. Seeing a couple of
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: books already move this to three, So.
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: Great, great, then I'm taking the package at three.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: Don't get cocky, Chat, this is where they get you.
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: Don't get cocky. This is where they get you. So
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: just be careful.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: You gotta clip that and if the Packers don't cover three,
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: you got play that back on Sunday night.
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: Oh just everyone be careful. Like I already was like,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: what is this line?
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: I'm in total agreece with Chat where I initially wanted
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: to just hammer this, especially now that Jordan loves back, but.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: There's something something going on here. I got this number
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: at three, so if it's three and a half, I'm
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: gonna I'll be on the RAMS side.
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: If it gets down to two and a half, me
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: and Chad will take that value on green Bay here.
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: So this is this is a big, big about the
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: number kind of line.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: I hate when you when you say it like that.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: We have been doing this show long enough for me
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: to know when you say be careful watch out. It's not, oh, Chad,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: like you're being silly. It feels like you know something
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: more about this than you probably feel comfortable saying.
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: No, it's a money thing. If I say what I
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: want to say, I have to pay someone a lot
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: of money for give them out their info. So it's
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: basically just my tongue in cheek way of not having
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: to pay someone six figures for using their good info?
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: Is the truth?
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: Interesting? We feel, but I'm not wrong. It's like you're
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: telling me something I am.
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: Okay, Yeah, this is one of these that jump off
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: the board to me this week. Wow, Yeah, this is
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: big man. The big Man bets Chad.
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: This is probably can be a big balls better of
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: the week. Shut up, Come on, this takes balls. Look
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: at you right now, you're hating every moment of this.
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: I am hating every moment of it. I was gonna
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: go with Arizona speaking of their teams to lose by
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: twenty eight plus points the previous week. More stats, and
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: our dogs are four plus points or more the following week,
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent against the spread the following week. Come on, Simon, like, no,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: you know what, you know what.
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: It's gonna be a fun week of sharp cause I'm
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: already looking forward to our Thursday show.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Oh my god. Now I thought I knew what my
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: exact decision was gonna be, and now you know what.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: I'm sticking with it, all right. So Green Bay Rams
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: like I don't know what we're doing. Clearly we're putting
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: it on a list.
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: I'm on the Rams. I know exactly what I'm doing.
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: Okay. Saturday Football Dallas at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh's two and a
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: half on Sunday night. My first instinct was down.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: Who's your buddy? Who's your buddy?
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: It warned you, Yeah, you wore me off it. You
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: wore me off it, and you didn't like it for
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: the matchup. But also now, like Micah Parsons is doubtful.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: DeMarcus Lawrence is out. Yes, So no strong opinion here.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: No, Still, I still like Pittsburgh.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: I liked him at two. My view of it was
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: they match up well with what this Dallas team wants
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: to do. That Dallas wants to pass the ball. Pittsburgh
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: wants you to pass the ball. That's where they get
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: their turnovers, that's where they make teams to make mistakes.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: So I like that.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: My only hesitation right now with Pittsburgh is, you know,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: their number one, number two running back might be out
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: of this game. Cordella Patterson might end up being their
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: number one running back here, which it's not ideal but
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: lucky for us. Dallas is one of the worst run
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: defenses in all of football. So yeah, maybe I'll get
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: you there come Sunday, Chad, But right now I do I.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: Don't feel Pittsburgh.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: I don't feel like, well, you've gone from like I
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: kind of like Pittsburgh too.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: I really like Pittsburgh just because of the injuries. You
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: just nailed it with injuries, Like I don't have their
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: best defenders are.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: Out, I'm not, and their two best defender is on
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: a team that only has five guys that played different line,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: So I don't I don't hate the Steelers in this
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: spot at all. I just didn't feel strongly about it.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: I think you have good hesitation because this is usually
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: where Toman lets us down right exactly.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: That's why I understand your hesitation prime.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: A favorite as a favorite, and it's Justin Fields. And
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: we saw Justin Fields in his full Justin Fields three
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty degree experience the other day against the Colts,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: and thank god it worked out in our favor. But
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: he was brilliant, made terrible mistakes. Brilliant made terrible mistakes.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: That's that's my hesitation here.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: So I got that stat ringing in my head.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: It's like, the real bad here is is Dallas gonna
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: scored more than twenty points because we know if they can't,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: this is an easy one for Pittsburgh. If they can,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: you're right, we'll probably lose this bet on Pittsburgh. So
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: that's that's definitely something that's ring in the back of
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: my head right now.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. The New Orleans Saints are I mean
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansasity Chiefs are five and
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: a half point favorites now in some spots still five
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: at three six five, but five and a half in
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: other places. Simon, Yeah, the New Orleans Saints.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: There we go.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: Are my executive decision.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: Good man?
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: Are you have your honor's text to kute number executive decision?
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: It was going to be the Cardinals.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: I almost came off it. It's going to be the Saints.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: Chiefs now have a ten game winning streak dating back
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: to last season. Do you know what their margin of
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: victory is in those games? Aggregate sixty one points? Yeah,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: average margin of victory this season five point three points
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: through the first the first three weeks of this season.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: They're now gone wide receiver for she Rice led the
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: league in receptions, was top two in yards, top two
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: in targets and team target share. Howwood Brown for the season.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: He was expected to be a big contributor. Now knows
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Rashid Rice still know Isaiah Piccheco. We saw what happened
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: when they didn't have these players and they were leading
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: into Kareem Hunt on Sunday, mahomes as a favorite three
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: or more thirty ninety three against the spread, Like you
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: just got to fade Mahomes as a favorite of this
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: number in games that are constantly close, when he is
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: consistently losing any of his weapons.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and when I went to sportsbook yesterday, the Bills
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: were still a dog at that point, and the bookmaker said,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: this is basically the number one teaser back to back
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: weeks is Bills in chief So last week it was.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: A number one teaser.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 3: Obviously didn't get there with the Bills getting blown out.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: The public went right back to it. They went all
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: over this Chiefs team and their teasers right with the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: Bills when the Bills were a dog. So I'm right
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: there with you this this feel it was a game
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: where me and you play the Saints, we play them
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: on the money line, and you know, we not that
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: we need a little bit of luck here, but we've
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: seen it, right, We've seen with this this Chiefs team
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: what they lack and skill they get with luck at
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: the end of these games. And it's like, yeah, okay,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: can we just have the refs on our side in
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: this game, get the calls to go our way? And
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: really can we they take away Xavier Worthy in the
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: deep shot, like can they make Mahomes drive the entire field?
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: Because that seems like that's his issue right now, right
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: it's putting together these long, sustainable drives because he just
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: can't depend on Travis Kelce like he used to. Right,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: He always had that kind of get out of jail
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: free car with Travis Kelser. It's like, oh, back against
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: the wall, third and six. I know I can dial
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: up to play here that Travis Kelce will get open
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: through impropervisation or whatever. It's just it's just a different
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: team this year. I mean you, we're gonna keep going
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: back to the well as long as it spreads above three.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: We talk well at the time like this is when
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: we'd like to go after Mahomes.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: So I love this pick, Chad, hoping it gets a
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: six for us, just because so much public money is
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: gonna keep coming in on this team. But I assume
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: the professionals are coming on the Saints team just like
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: we are, and bet the stumber down so happy to
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: grab it while you cant of five and a half.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: All right, So the games that we really like so
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: far that we have found agreement on New Orleans as
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: my exec decision Cincinnati, Simon says, we're still leaning in
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas plus two and a half, but we probably
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: want to get some sharp calls on that. We will
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: look forward to hearing what people have to say about
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals and the Niners. And clearly you've got something
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: you want to say about the Rams A plus three
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: That is I've said too much.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: That is making me rethink my entire existence right now.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: No so, and don't Houston. We like Houston too. Remember
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: to keep going up as well.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: Houston, Houston, Houston plus one all right. As reminder, fun
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: ugly dogs is really fun ugly dogs. As a reminder,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five
• 1:06:06
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• 1:06:45
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• 1:06:49
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• 1:06:52
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