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The Launch · No Dirt No Flowers Podcast

0:01
Hello, my name is Andy Roy, and I would like
0:03
to thank you all for joining us on the very first
0:05
episode of No Dirt, No Flowers, hosted by Mike
0:09
Roy and Drew Gaskell. On this podcast, they will
0:12
explore the broader ag world while discussing
0:14
and dissecting the hop industry, where we currently
0:16
are, how we got here, and where we can go in
0:19
the future. Join Mike and Drew as they spend
0:22
the next hour discussing their hopes and goals
0:24
for the podcast going forward. Filled with insights,
0:27
hopes, random tangents, and several squirrel
0:29
moments, we hope you enjoy, and welcome to the
0:31
show. Okay. Ready? Oh, yeah. Where do we start?
0:47
Did you start recording? Mm -hmm. Well, I think
0:50
we start something like this. Welcome to the
0:52
first ever Mike Drew. Podcast. No dirt, no flowers.
1:01
No, why are we doing a podcast? Why are we going
1:03
to do a welcome to no dirt, no flowers? We can
1:06
do a welcome to no dirt, no flowers. All right.
1:09
No dirt, no flowers. There you go. First podcast.
1:13
What are we talking about here? I mean, why are
1:15
we doing it? Are people going to be interested?
1:18
Yeah, they're going to be interested. How could
1:20
they not be? Well, that's what I think. I mean.
1:24
Think of all the fun topics we're going to cover
1:26
on this. Oh, there's so many fun topics. But
1:29
I think we're doing this because there's a lot
1:33
to talk about. I think it's the most interesting
1:36
time in the hop industry I've seen. There's a
1:38
lot to talk about. Oh, yeah. And we've gone through
1:43
so much change in the last 15 years in agriculture,
1:52
in craft beer. in hops, in farming. And this
1:58
industry is like this magical and complex and
2:03
confusing and wonderful place to get to work
2:09
in and do life with people in. And there's so
2:14
many nuances and things that go on that need
2:18
to be talked about and that'll be fun to talk
2:21
about. and challenging so i think ultimately
2:25
what we want to do is help bring more transparency
2:29
to the industry build stronger relationships
2:31
with growers and with brewers and with our environment
2:36
and stakeholders workers on the farm the community
2:41
we live in and help keep family generational
2:46
farming you know yeah and we come at least i
2:50
come from an upbringing where you just don't
2:53
talk about stuff for different reasons. And that
2:57
doesn't help solve any of the problems. And so
3:00
I think this is a great platform and a great
3:03
time to start that conversation. I agree. Yeah,
3:07
what's your topic you're most excited to talk
3:09
about? I mean, the obvious one that's been chewing
3:12
at me lately is just everything that's happening
3:14
in the hot market. So that's the one that I feel
3:18
like I need to get off my chest. there's a strong
3:21
passion for anything farming related. If we're
3:25
going to talk about that, when we talk about
3:26
that down the road, but yeah, the one that's
3:28
just been gnawing at me because it's our reality
3:31
right now is, is everything that's going on in
3:33
the hop market and how market share is moving
3:36
around. And I don't know all of the interesting
3:38
dynamics and storylines that are happening behind
3:42
the scenes. Maybe that's the, maybe that's the
3:45
best way to say what our podcast is. It's like,
3:48
If you said that the hop industry is like a sitcom
3:53
or something like that, we're like the behind
3:55
-the -scenes Netflix video that actually talks
4:00
to different stakeholders and talks about what's
4:04
going on. Well, it's more like reality TV. Yeah.
4:08
There are so many times that I have thought up
4:11
like, and I know I'm not alone on this, but different
4:14
TV. programs or movies or or whatever and how
4:19
you could either relate like different actors
4:23
in the industry to like game of thrones or you
4:30
know you could make some pretty funny reality
4:32
tv shows out of all of this stuff uh what's your
4:36
favorite i guess i have topics that i'm excited
4:40
about but i'm probably more excited about like
4:45
where this goes and you know feedback that comes
4:49
from people that say hey i want to i want to
4:52
come be a part of that or chat on that or i've
4:55
got a topic that'll be fun to discuss you know
4:58
again from my perspective i think that the industry
5:01
needs needs some sort of a platform like this
5:04
where you talk and people can listen and they
5:06
can interact and get questions answered and like
5:11
you said a lot of stuff just it doesn't get talked
5:13
about or it gets talked about behind the scenes.
5:15
And, you know, I don't think it's because there's
5:18
like bad actors or anything like that. I think
5:20
it has more to do with like the history of families
5:25
and merchants and relationships with brewers
5:28
and how long that goes. I was talking to somebody
5:33
the other day and they were talking about some
5:35
disagreements between two farms and. Two hop
5:40
farms. Two hop farms. Organizations. It's more
5:46
nuanced than that. I won't share. Yeah, we don't
5:49
need to use names. Although we will share more
5:52
and more stuff. But basically the idea that the
5:57
issues that exist between these organizations.
6:01
is not like 10 years old. It's not like 20 years
6:04
old. It's like goes back to grandpas and great
6:07
grandpas and like, well, this person did that.
6:11
And so like, there's always just been this tension
6:13
there, you know, that it's fascinating. And I,
6:19
I'm excited to see some of those walls get broken
6:21
down. Yeah. I mean, that's a good point. I'm
6:24
excited about opening up those lines of communications,
6:26
breaking down walls. Because, yeah, it's multigenerational
6:30
sometimes. And I found myself reflecting maybe
6:35
just in the last year about why some of these
6:39
emotional scars still exist. And in some cases,
6:43
I had to go ask my dad what happened 25 years
6:48
ago and why is it manifesting itself in this
6:51
way today? And it'll have something to do with
6:55
like, well. There was this one obscure piece
6:58
of land that had some hops on it. And really,
7:03
if you distill it down, somebody didn't turn
7:04
the water on or something like that. You're like,
7:06
what? Yeah, sometimes it's for legit reasons.
7:09
But most of the time, it's something that in
7:12
my mind just seems completely ridiculous. Or
7:15
it was because they don't even know why. It's
7:19
just they didn't talk about it. And then they
7:21
just went their separate ways. And they both.
7:24
wrote their own narratives. Like, both parties
7:26
wrote their own narratives about what happened.
7:28
It's like a mountain out of a molehill. Exactly.
7:32
Like, I think they're upset with me. Yeah. And
7:35
so I didn't talk to them. I don't think they
7:38
like me. I don't like them. Yeah. Oh, there's
7:41
a rift. Oh, no, they're not getting included
7:44
in. Who knows? Back to your guests. That's one
7:50
I did overlook. I'm really excited about having
7:51
guests on here. other people's perspectives,
7:54
other people's stories, other people's experiences
7:57
related to what's happening right now and what
8:00
I think is going to unfold over especially the
8:03
next two to three years as everything kind of
8:05
resets into a new norm. Oh, yeah. Hop industry
8:09
-wise, I'm not sure about some of these other
8:12
ag commodities and crops because we're not so
8:17
tied into those. Yeah, but maybe there's something
8:19
that we can learn or they can learn. Oh, for
8:21
sure. I think we should branch out into other
8:25
crops for sure. Like I think back to, you know,
8:28
discussions we've had over the last year since
8:30
I've been here and like talking to some big brewers
8:32
that Roy Farms is rebuilding relationships with
8:37
that, you know, for whatever reason in the craft
8:40
run up, maybe we didn't work well together for
8:45
whatever reason. And going back and just being
8:48
really intentional and upfront about the discussions
8:51
that we have and saying, well, here's from our
8:54
perspective, here's where we screwed up. Here's
8:56
where we're at. Here's where we're going. And
8:58
it seems like there's a short memory and a willingness
9:01
for everybody to start getting over or moving
9:05
forward. And I think that's exciting. And I think
9:09
that to your point about how the industry is
9:12
going to change over the next couple of years.
9:14
There's going to be the falling out of growers,
9:17
which sucks to say, but it is part of the byproduct
9:21
of everything that's gone on. And there's going
9:24
to be a shakeout of brewers and all of that sort
9:26
of stuff. But as an industry, and hopefully we
9:30
are leaders in this space, obviously, by doing
9:33
this, being able to talk about things and get
9:36
questions answered and create more transparency
9:38
and more. Hopefully other people listen to it.
9:42
Hopefully our competitors listen to this and
9:44
say, that's a good idea. We should listen to,
9:46
you know, they had so -and -so from Moxie Brewing
9:49
Company. I don't, for the record, think there
9:51
is a Moxie Brewing Company. I'm sure there's
9:53
a trademark out there. Unless it's like Moxie,
9:56
like M -O -X -I -E. Yeah, I think there is actually
9:58
something like that. You know, whenever we have
10:01
enough money to have like somebody in studio.
10:04
So 10 years. That can like. Maybe we'll get some
10:11
sponsors or something. Yeah. But we can have
10:13
like, you know, the person that sits over on
10:15
the side that has like a computer. And like when
10:18
we ask these questions, you can. Well, it's going
10:21
to be Liz. Yeah. So once we get Liz. Oh, yeah.
10:24
She's going to be great. She's kind of upset
10:27
that she couldn't be here this morning. For the
10:29
four listeners that we're going to get on this
10:31
episode. They're probably going to share our
10:34
last name. Just so you know. Liz is going to
10:39
be fantastic when she is in studio and we can
10:43
buy her microphone so she can say stuff. Oh,
10:45
yeah. Okay, where were we? This is going to be
10:48
a common theme, too, where we will squirrel off
10:51
and then we'll come back. The weave. The weave.
10:56
I don't want to be associated with the weave,
10:58
personally. That's not a political statement.
11:01
I mean, it is, but let's digress from that. Uh,
11:07
yeah, we'll, we'll go all over as we are right
11:10
now, but that's okay. Uh, one thing you said
11:13
that I thought was interesting was the short
11:15
memory and like Ted Lasso be a goldfish. Yeah,
11:19
it's great. Uh, which is interesting because
11:23
we just got done talking about how long some
11:25
of these unknown riffs last. Oh yeah. And then
11:29
we immediately got into how there really is a
11:33
short memory at the end of the day, which I think
11:35
is great. And this industry that we're in, I
11:38
mean, agricultural, brewing, Yakima Valley, it's
11:45
all so small at the end of the day. It just really
11:49
seems odd that there's so much competition when
11:55
sometimes it doesn't seem like it needs to be
11:58
that complicated. I know that's a simplistic
12:01
statement, but that's really how I feel sometimes.
12:06
Oh, yeah. You know, the other interesting thing
12:08
about that is that the the rifts that exist are
12:13
all professional, to my knowledge. That's a good
12:16
point. Like there are there are certainly organizations
12:20
or individuals or whatever that maybe don't see
12:24
eye to eye with Roy Farms and what we what we
12:30
do or how we do things for whatever reason, because
12:33
it's probably tied to some rift from. however
12:36
long ago or whatever. But on the other side of
12:39
that, there's not a single individual that's
12:41
in that organization that I couldn't, or those
12:44
organizations, whoever it is, that I couldn't
12:46
call up and say, let's go grab a beer and catch
12:50
up because we're still friends. It's a really
12:54
interesting industry. There's, like you said,
12:58
competition in this very small industry, but
13:02
there's also... Yeah, I wonder if some of it
13:04
has to do with the fact that, I mean, at least
13:08
for the current period, we're on the backside.
13:11
And there was a different backside at the end
13:14
of, you know, a lot of that alpha run up, or
13:17
the periods where alpha run ups were happening,
13:20
where there was just such a building mentality.
13:23
Like we're building, we're building, we're building.
13:26
And there's different ways of building that.
13:29
And there was no right or wrong. But and maybe
13:33
this is a generational thing, but there was almost
13:35
a me, me, me, not in a selfish way, but a me,
13:39
me, me, my way of building this is the right
13:42
way. And if there was any opposition or even
13:45
healthy debate around it, there was a lot of
13:48
walls that were put up. I think if everyone could
13:52
have taken a step back and just looked at the
13:54
fact that there are different ways to build the
13:57
industry, there are different ways to build our
14:00
individual farms, that's okay. And if we took
14:04
the best pieces from everywhere, it would probably
14:07
be a more functioning system instead of being
14:09
so protective of my idea and the way that I see
14:14
it. And if you oppose that, then there's something
14:17
wrong with me. Yeah. Well, it's almost like a
14:20
weird herd mentality that exists. Like your individual,
14:24
how you're doing it is the right way. And then
14:27
everybody does that. And then they think it and
14:30
they move forward. And then the next thing you
14:32
know, we've got two years of inventory in the
14:34
system and everybody's like, whoa, what just
14:36
happened? Well, we could probably all very easily
14:40
look in the mirror. Yeah, everyone needs to look
14:44
in the mirror on that one. Everyone. Oh, yeah.
14:47
But now we work through that and we emerge as
14:52
an industry better and stronger. You know, our
14:56
different breweries around the country and around
14:59
the world. hopefully we can well we don't have
15:02
a choice as an industry we have to figure out
15:06
how to work better with our customers and interact
15:09
better that's something i'm really excited uh
15:11
to do bring on some brewers yeah and talk about
15:15
like hey we get to see what it's like on this
15:17
side yeah but like maybe we'll get some good
15:21
funny stories i hope so i hope this is a forum
15:25
for i mean the first word that comes to mind
15:28
is transparency but that Doesn't seem to really
15:31
capture it. It's like a format to... It's like
15:36
a medium of dirt where you plant and it grows
15:40
into flowers. Sorry, keep going. I was just helping
15:47
you finish your sentence. That's all I'm doing.
15:50
I don't even know where I was at. That it's a
15:52
forum for... Just for a different type of conversation.
15:56
Oh, yeah. And I was thinking about that. Like
15:59
in terms of of interacting with brewers, because
16:02
like if we go and we do a collab or something
16:06
like that, or we go on a sales trip, while there
16:10
might be some, you know, ancillary conversations
16:13
that branch out of that, they're really pretty
16:18
focused in the tone and the approach and everything
16:21
is as as lighthearted as we try and make it is
16:25
still kind of geared in one direction. And so.
16:29
Except for when you go in and you spend the entire
16:31
time talking about hiking mountains and we never
16:34
talk about hops over an hour. That's relationship
16:37
building. That's called relationship building.
16:39
That's my specialty. I know. It's one of your
16:42
love languages. And water. Yeah. Okay. So as
16:47
an example of what we're talking about, hopefully
16:49
I can connect these dots because I was just thinking
16:51
about water. Okay. So I've always thought this
16:55
is interesting because like. There's a lot of
16:59
fear that comes out of this industry. I think
17:01
that's what drives a lot of it. Oh, it's so much.
17:03
Something that I've thought about a lot is that
17:05
everything is, there's truth that is rooted in
17:10
everything that gets said and communicated in
17:13
the industry. But like there's truth tactics
17:17
and then there's fear tactics. So an example
17:20
that I was thinking of is water. So what can
17:25
happen? Now, actually, in 2025, this is probably
17:30
true, so I'm going to contradict myself a little
17:32
bit here. But when we talk about water, so Yakima
17:37
is in a drought right now. And it looks like
17:43
it could be ugly. That is just full transparency.
17:47
We just saw a report from Rosa Irrigation District
17:51
last week, I think, right? And it said we are
17:53
the third lowest reservoir level. since 1971
17:57
are snow packs and like the 80 yeah snow packs
18:02
looking good percentile or whatever but there's
18:05
not enough reserves right now and it could really
18:09
impact agriculture so there's people calling
18:11
around trying to buy water from their neighbors
18:13
and all of that sort of stuff and so the truth
18:16
is that brewers should know about that and they
18:22
should say i need to contract my volumes to make
18:26
sure that, or do the best you can to make sure
18:29
that there's an adequate amount in the ground,
18:32
because there's a very real possibility that
18:35
25 crops going to go short, but the fear tactic
18:40
could be for multiple reasons, not just water
18:42
budgets. Oh yeah. Under capacity, under capacity,
18:48
not growing enough because of inventory, not
18:51
farms, not having enough money to spend. on yeah
18:55
all of these are truths and realities but where
18:58
it can get twisted but water but like in any
19:02
of those but let's use water where it can get
19:03
twisted is going to brewers and saying you need
19:09
to contract you know 100 or even maybe even 110
19:12
percent of your needs because if there's a shortage
19:14
you're not going to get your hops yeah and then
19:17
brewers go over contract and then something gets
19:20
planted and then you get a huge You know, even
19:23
if Washington comes in at like 80 % or 90%, but
19:28
then Oregon has enough water. And if it's, I
19:32
mean, Oregon can go huge on yields. If they have
19:35
a good growing season, they can have monsters
19:39
and so can Idaho. And so it could all come out
19:42
to be a normal crop. And now you've got more
19:44
hops in the ground and you're over -contracted
19:48
again. And I've seen this happen, you know. the
19:51
buildup for overcontracting from brewers happened
19:54
for a number of reasons, right? We've had enough
19:56
discussions. Some of it is like growth was going
19:59
to be green pastures and people were going to
20:01
keep drinking craft beer, you know, and COVID
20:05
had a, you know, impact in all kinds of ways,
20:08
like college drinkers. And there's all kinds
20:11
of different stuff that gets talked about in
20:12
that area. But so there's overcontracting in
20:16
the first place because of that. But then there's
20:17
also like, I can remember many times talking
20:21
to brewers and like, I can't remember what was
20:23
the big drought years, like 2017 or something
20:26
like that. Yeah. Something like that. And brewers
20:29
were really aware of it because they were still
20:31
growing. And so they would just contract to buffer
20:35
their needs. And if this person is short, but
20:38
as an industry, we didn't do anything to say
20:41
that the mechanisms are in place to help you
20:44
out. Like if you were to take. I'm trying to
20:48
think of a variety right now that is in a decent
20:51
position. I mean, there's certainly varieties
20:54
that there's plenty of inventory out there. And
20:56
so if we went short as an industry, which it's
21:00
already being undergrown because you've got to
21:02
eat through inventory. That makes sense. But
21:04
even if we were short on top of the forecasts
21:07
that I would imagine different merchants are
21:12
using, there's still inventory. You could still
21:14
get hops. But then, like, let's use Centennial
21:20
would be a good example right now. I would say
21:24
from what we're seeing, and obviously we don't
21:26
have any insight into what anybody else has seen,
21:28
but from what we're seeing, it's probably relatively
21:32
balanced. If we have an average crop, we don't
21:36
have a lot of inventory of it. But if we went
21:41
way short on Centennial. as an industry there's
21:45
still probably you know some 23 crop lying around
21:49
like there's ways to fix it where we don't have
21:52
to go overdo it i know this is a humongous monologue
21:58
but it's probably pretty big my point being is
22:02
like how these little issues that we need to
22:05
talk about and we need to be aware of and connected
22:08
they can become like drivers of fear of missing
22:13
out on supply or something like that and cause
22:15
supply chain disruptions everywhere. Yeah. Well,
22:21
first of all, what was funny is when you're trying
22:23
to come up with an example of a variety that's
22:25
in a good position, I was doing the same and
22:27
I couldn't think of that many. I can think of
22:31
one that has a significant amount of supply built
22:36
up beyond kind of what I would call the normal
22:40
inventory issues. Which one starts with an M
22:45
millennium? No, but a lot of the other ones are,
22:52
um, I mean, there's inventory there, but when
22:55
you look at what, uh, a year and a half of kind
22:58
of desired inventory. Yeah. Like my perspective,
23:03
like from an inventory standpoint, you want 1
23:06
.3 years of, or you want, you know, call it 16
23:12
months of inventory at harvest because you get
23:16
through enough time to process, package, ship.
23:19
The ideal scenario is that you have 12 months
23:22
of inventory on January 1st, right? Yeah, so
23:26
what varieties have that or have a huge amount
23:31
of, here's a better way of phrasing the question,
23:34
what varieties in your mind will be in an ideal
23:39
position? after this coming harvest oh that's
23:44
a good question well i can only speak obviously
23:46
like i said we don't have some of this is speculation
23:49
but i think so like if you look at let's use
23:53
cascade right now yeah so cascade's a funny one
23:57
because you can watch the acreage reports and
24:00
you know when people are coming and asking for
24:02
it and when they're not and the thing's all over
24:06
the place it's always been all over the place
24:09
Oh yeah. And right now I would say it is, I mean,
24:14
we are, we do not have very much inventory on
24:17
that variety and we've had spot sales pick up
24:21
like crazy over the last like four months or
24:25
something like that. And we're not going to add
24:28
any more this year because there's not contracts
24:31
because people are buying, you know, there, there's
24:33
a lot more contract buying happening right now
24:35
or a spot buying happening right now in general.
24:38
Yeah, which is a whole different conversation
24:40
about how that landscape, specifically spot buying,
24:44
has just accelerated over the last couple years.
24:48
Oh, yeah. Well, I think people are scared to
24:50
get in a position where they've got, you know,
24:53
Brewer can't handle having two years of inventory.
24:56
This frustrates me. Nor can we, but it just comes
24:59
back. Nor can we. Anyway, when this inventory
25:04
gets worked out of the system, or even... before
25:08
there's better ways to do this oh for sure i
25:12
mean that's like it's a roy farms podcast so
25:17
sponsored by roy farms although if anybody wants
25:22
to sponsor you just let us know but from roy
25:27
farms perspective that's why we're doing flex
25:29
contracts where you can adjust the volumes and
25:34
the varietal mix Because it's not doing the brewers
25:41
any favors to be locked into a three -year set
25:44
volume contract for a set variety when maybe
25:48
that beer is on the decline or it's on the incline.
25:54
And then what happens is on the farm, we end
26:00
up getting to the end of a contract. And if it's
26:04
a big enough contract, you know, if it's a...
26:06
60 70 000 pound contract that's a whole hop yard
26:09
and maybe we could have sold those hops to somebody
26:14
else but if we make them whoever contracted those
26:18
keep taking the hops and they don't need them
26:21
then at the end of three years we're taking that
26:25
field out well that's how you ended up with basically
26:28
35 of the ranch sitting idle is because of those
26:34
big contracts and people don't want to buy them.
26:36
So they're doing spot, but spot doesn't help
26:39
anybody either because there's no demand indications.
26:42
And so nobody knows what to plant or what to
26:45
grow. Yeah. And so, yeah, there's definitely
26:49
from, you know, why are we doing this? There's
26:51
definitely a self -serving aspect to it. Yeah,
26:54
we need to be authentic in that, right? It's
26:56
also to get the Roy Farms message out there because
26:59
it's just hard to get. our message out there
27:03
it's hard to get any message out there so yeah
27:06
so there's a self -serving but ultimately we
27:09
want as an industry as a total supply chain we
27:15
want there to be better ways of doing this exactly
27:19
we want to participate in that and i think the
27:23
other thing is you know related to guests um
27:28
there's been a lot of pain in the industry in
27:33
the last especially year and i think we're going
27:35
to see another round of it this coming year oh
27:38
my gosh yeah and so for those that survive just
27:43
because they survived it doesn't mean that they're
27:48
going to be immune to to that and so i think
27:51
those stories are important to tell because i
27:55
just at the end of the day i think this industry
27:57
is small enough that it can find some sort of
28:03
balance over the long term and i don't know i
28:07
mean i hopefully if these stories are heard it
28:11
it acts as a motivator to to just do things differently
28:15
better i agree stories of resilience stories
28:20
of resilience but i want to circle back around
28:23
to the variety question because i think that
28:24
that's interesting and i think at some point
28:27
our viewers when they go back and look at previous
28:32
episodes, they'll find this little tidbit interesting.
28:36
So what varieties will be in a healthy position?
28:41
And by healthy, I mean kind of balanced. What
28:45
varieties will be in a good balanced position
28:47
after this 2025 harvest? So if by that we're
28:53
saying that the brewer will be able to have access
28:58
to the variety, And there's not just a huge glut
29:03
of it sitting there. Yes. So relatively in balance
29:07
where brewers get what they want, farmers and
29:11
merchants are happy. I think across the board,
29:14
everybody's trying to figure that out. And there's
29:19
some varieties that have crazy inventory levels
29:23
right now. So I can only speak from a Roy Farms
29:27
perspective. I think that... Chinook, Cascade,
29:33
Centennial are all really close to where they
29:36
should be. Do you think they're under or over
29:41
that ideal inventory level? I bet by the time
29:46
we get to the end of harvest, they're going to
29:48
be right dead on. But there's probably going
29:51
to have to be a little bit more that goes in
29:53
the ground next year. Just looking at my opinionated
29:57
crystal ball. Well, mine too. I would have guessed
30:01
they're just slightly under ideal. That would
30:04
be my guess. And then there's, you know, what
30:07
else do we grow? I mean, I think Azaka is in
30:10
a really good position right now. If that one's
30:13
maybe even more, it's kind of hard to tell. That
30:17
one might be a little shorter. That would be.
30:21
So I know this year we grew through the whole
30:26
breeding program. We grew. really close to our
30:31
contracted level and it's shipping at a good
30:35
rate and all of that sort of stuff. We've, we
30:38
had, you know, some spots, but not a lot from
30:43
an inventory standpoint. You know, I don't know
30:47
what the other people that carry it have in their
30:52
inventory, but I know for us, we have one lot
30:58
of, 23 that's sitting there that puts us a little
31:05
bit out of balance. But generally speaking, I
31:08
think that's getting to aged inventory right
31:12
now. I mean, they're still good hops and will
31:15
be for several years if nobody takes them. But
31:18
generally speaking, I think Azaka's in a really
31:19
good spot. I think... you know from my understanding
31:26
and what we could see on acreage reports and
31:28
then also pull rates with brewers i think strata
31:30
and amarillo are in a good spot you know then
31:33
we grow some other smaller varieties that's that's
31:37
harder to tell um because we're just not very
31:40
big piece of the market but um i don't know i
31:44
know the guys that that manage the proprietary
31:47
hops you know your citrus and mosaics and those
31:51
and they're they've been really good about communicating
31:55
you know how they're gonna uh correct their supply
31:58
issues and seems pretty consistent alpha now
32:01
on the other hand that one is just that one's
32:05
really confusing to me it's the most confusing
32:09
right now like if there's too much alpha how
32:12
come it's still getting bought up just at cheap
32:14
prices when there's a lot of inventory how do
32:18
we get like huge brewers on here oh we'll we'll
32:21
do that like multinationals Show us your playbook.
32:27
We want to see. Yeah. I don't know. I'm excited
32:36
about talking about all of those things. I'm
32:39
really excited about this podcast. Yeah. You
32:44
know what I'm kind of excited for? And for our
32:46
listener group, if you don't know Leslie Roy.
32:52
you're gonna get a real treat oh i totally forgot
32:56
about that pre -programmed episode that we have
32:59
i mean we just gotta let him go i know that's
33:03
that's the one not the one time it's one of the
33:07
few times we're just gonna give him a lot of
33:10
leash oh yeah you know if we are really really
33:14
smart about that one yeah is we would bring on
33:18
not just leslie but like get I don't know. I'm
33:23
thinking kind of some of the old guard, like
33:24
Steve Peralta, like they grew up together or
33:27
Mike Smith or Steve Carpenter. Like, you know,
33:31
I'm sure there's plenty of names that you could
33:34
throw in there, but like it just let them go
33:37
and talk about the history of everything. I just
33:41
imagine this scenario where you have like all
33:43
of them around this table. And you and I just
33:47
like throw a topic card on the middle of the
33:49
table and just say, go. Can we make sure that
33:51
one's on YouTube? Yeah. Can we all like we can
33:55
have like a like a buzzer, like a shot caller,
33:58
too, if we're like, OK, we like you can stray
34:01
like a standard deviation off the topic, but
34:04
you can't go like like somehow we can't start
34:09
with like. well the desert ranch was acquired
34:14
in 2008 and be talking about that and somehow
34:20
you know get into like and we knew desert alts
34:26
through this and then it goes into you know relationships
34:30
in kindergarten and then political theory on
34:33
on uh you know Childhood education. Like, well,
34:36
we're going to have to reign him in on that stuff.
34:38
We definitely need to hit the buzzer when it
34:40
hits political land and it will. There's. Yeah,
34:48
we can work through that. He's going to be fun.
34:53
That's going to be really fun. Yeah, let's take
34:56
a minute and talk about some of the episodes
34:58
we got coming. Oh, yeah. The transparency one
35:02
is going to be really. Because I think it's,
35:08
you know, we all show like the part of our face
35:14
that, or the part of our business that we want
35:20
to be shown. And we call that transparency. Actually,
35:23
I was listening to a podcast talking about transparency
35:26
and vulnerability. And it said, they said that
35:32
transparency. is like we communicate transparency
35:37
as you have somebody comes to your front door
35:44
and you open the door and they can see what they
35:51
can see through the doorway. And we call that
35:54
transparency. But really it's only seeing what
35:57
you're allowed to see versus vulnerability. they
36:02
describe is letting the person who goes to the
36:04
front door, step into the house and walk around
36:08
and see things. And I think that's more of what
36:11
we're wanting to do. Oh, for sure. Like we're
36:18
going to talk about stuff that, you know, share
36:22
realities about Roy farms and some stuff that
36:25
we've been through and are going through and
36:28
decisions that had to be made that are going
36:30
to make us, Typically, you wouldn't want to share
36:33
because you don't want to look weak to a customer.
36:38
But if you don't actually share the full picture,
36:43
how are you going to solve for future problems?
36:47
Make sure you don't get there again. I think
36:50
that's really important. Yeah, so I'm excited
36:53
about that episode. As I sigh about being vulnerable.
36:56
You're great at it. You might have a little edge
37:00
sometimes with it. Oh, yeah. Yeah, there's an
37:04
edge there sometimes. That's okay. What other
37:07
topics you got? People misunderstand my edge.
37:09
I like it. Thanks, buddy. Do you have a list
37:17
of topics there? No, I don't. I was trying to
37:19
remember the list of topics that we came up with.
37:22
Oh, yeah. Well, we're going to talk about water.
37:26
Oh, yeah. Environmental issues. Farm worker issues,
37:30
that's going to be really interesting, like talking
37:32
about immigration. I personally have, and I know
37:38
you do too, have a passion for the people that
37:40
work on the ranch and talking about pay rates
37:44
and what we'd like to be able to do and the challenges
37:47
that come with that. Would love to have some
37:50
of our long -term employees on the show. I was
37:52
just going to say that. That's definitely something
37:54
that we have planned. Oh, yeah. International
38:00
MRLs. Oh, yeah. The challenge of that in organics.
38:05
That one just lights a fire underneath me. Oh,
38:09
yeah. I don't understand it. It's the most ridiculous
38:13
thing ever. Yep. That's a whole bunch of money
38:17
we'll never see again. They're not cheap to grow.
38:22
No. I won't get on the soapbox. But that whole
38:28
thing just completely lights me up that the organic
38:32
standard, in my microwave opinion, is completely
38:35
outdated. It needs a complete revamp. If the
38:39
goal is safe food, I think that the standard
38:45
that was born out of opposition to chemical farming
38:48
needs to be updated. Yeah. That's all I'll say
38:52
for now. Excellent. You know what else on topics?
38:56
Yeah, we had a whole list, but in typical Drew
38:58
and Mike fashion, we didn't actually print it
39:02
off. No, it's in our computers somewhere. Oh,
39:07
yeah. We have a whole year of content programs.
39:10
And this is before even getting feedback from
39:12
our loyal listeners. Yeah, that's one thing that
39:14
we need. We need feedback. Good topics to...
39:17
Yeah, stuff that we didn't even think about.
39:20
Oh, yeah. You know who I'd love to have on here
39:23
is representatives from the Hop Quality Group.
39:26
yeah they're such good people and they're they're
39:29
trying new things and really trying to connect
39:31
and i think there's opportunity there and you
39:37
know we've seen like some tension with that over
39:39
the years for a variety of reasons yeah why fun
39:42
to just talk about yeah why this is a topic that
39:46
we will talk about more in depth but why is there
39:50
so much why is there so much friction between
39:53
public and private breeding I know that's a whole
39:56
episode. No, it's a great question. It almost
40:01
feels like both public and private have like
40:04
half of the puzzle fit together. I mean, let's
40:11
be honest. Generally speaking, public varieties
40:12
have a price point that's more attractive to
40:15
brewers, but because they're not managed in a
40:19
way that creates like... great novelty and yield
40:24
and all of that sort of stuff they're not putting
40:27
out varieties that can compete with the horsepower
40:30
and intentionality that and that's nothing against
40:32
like public breeding programs it's just there's
40:35
more resources there's more management all of
40:39
that in the private breeding programs in that
40:41
that is needed for a variety to work you have
40:44
to have management well and right or wrong i
40:47
think there's usually more of a singular focus
40:51
within these private breeding programs. It might
40:54
be alpha, it might be sustainability, it might
40:56
be yield, it might be aroma. But usually somebody
41:00
has picked something as their driver and they're
41:05
really focused on it. I think the problem that
41:07
we run into in the public breeding program is
41:10
that those programs try and serve too many masters.
41:15
Oh, that's a good point. It would be interesting
41:19
to see how functional or non -functional these
41:22
public breeding programs could be if there was
41:25
just more of a focus on an individual goal or
41:31
two goals. I think you just have too many stakeholders
41:36
and you're trying to serve too many masters.
41:39
And for the record, the lion's share of, not
41:43
the lion's share, but a good... chunk of our
41:46
portfolio is public varieties oh yeah so i straddle
41:53
i straddle the fence on that one you know i see
41:55
the value in public i see the value in in private
41:58
but to that point like it seems like there's
42:02
always this tension between the two yeah and
42:05
i've been a part of tons of roundtable discussions
42:08
over it and it seems like discussions happen
42:13
and then I don't really know. I mean, it would
42:18
be good to, that would be a wall that would be
42:22
fun to break down or healthy to break down and
42:25
like let into the room. I mean, I know from a
42:29
grower perspective, we have zero interest in
42:34
having a variety that's interesting that gets
42:38
released and then everybody and their dog can
42:40
plant as much as they want of it because it's
42:42
just, we're just going to have to yank it out
42:44
in a couple of years. and it just costs us way
42:48
too much money and then quality gets all over
42:51
the board and then so like the management that
42:53
the private breeding programs have is really
42:56
valuable the the problem though is that and i've
43:01
i thought about this for a long time is that
43:04
i think as humans we inherently want choice and
43:09
we want agency over our lives and so i think
43:12
what some of the Private breeding programs bump
43:16
up against and Latitude 46, you know, the breeding
43:19
program, the private breeding program that we're
43:21
involved in hasn't been immune to this either.
43:25
Is it you start limiting access to market? And
43:31
I think it bumps right up against limiting an
43:34
individual's choice. It's way more nuanced than
43:38
that. But I think sometimes the answer. lies
43:42
within those like overarching issues i agree
43:47
i think it's interesting i've always thought
43:49
like apple was a really good example of market
43:54
share giving the customer choice and because
43:59
when they started out with the iphone it was
44:01
only available through like singular or and then
44:04
that became 18t or something like that and that
44:08
got it out but customers maybe were happy with
44:12
verizon or us cellular whoever their cell phone
44:17
carrier was and then once apple they still manage
44:22
the product they still manage intellectual property
44:26
and all that sort of stuff and quality control
44:29
and have the you know that great network of support
44:32
throughout the world with apple stores and all
44:35
of that jazz but then you can get them anywhere
44:39
in the the customer has that choice i've always
44:43
thought that was an interesting model but like
44:47
you said it's all more nuanced than this too
44:49
and i want to say a lot of it has to do with
44:53
control but i don't think that's the issue i
44:55
think it's fear like to your point earlier it's
44:58
not they're controlling that they we whoever
45:03
You know, there's no finger pointing here. For
45:05
clarity, we have a breeding program. Well, that's
45:07
why I said we, you know. Like, as an industry.
45:10
We're trying to dive into all those same things,
45:12
right, with our breeding program. Like, we have
45:15
some ideas on how we can do it better moving
45:17
forward. But that's why I say we. We're not,
45:19
you know, it's a we thing. We is an industry
45:21
thing. Or we is a private breeding program thing.
45:24
Well, and to the better thing, like, something
45:27
that we've been saying a lot, we, Roy Farms,
45:29
we. Mm -hmm. And I've heard other people in the
45:32
industry say this, too. But when we say we need
45:36
to do it better, that's not pointing fingers
45:39
in any way, shape or form. It's as an industry.
45:44
Clearly, we have misstepped. Well, I'm pointing
45:48
a finger. I'm pointing a finger at the entire
45:50
hop industry. Yeah. Yeah. But, you know, but
45:54
like point being, we need to have. nobody has
45:57
ever gone through the craft boom before yeah
46:00
no grower no brewer there were craft brewers
46:03
out there but you know the big ramp up started
46:07
in you know the real big ramp up started in like
46:10
13 14 but it's a relatively craft hops and craft
46:16
beer are a very young industry relatively speaking
46:21
But hops and beer is not. No. And sometimes I
46:23
think we use the, oh, we've never experienced
46:26
craft beer boom to just walk away from some of
46:30
the same issues, the sins that we've repeated.
46:34
This is where we need the elders in the room.
46:36
Yeah, that's a good point. You know, from my
46:39
limited perspective on history, there's been
46:44
booms. Now, they may have been shorter cycles,
46:46
but there's been booms all throughout hops history,
46:49
right? Oh, yeah. And so is the craft beer boom
46:54
really that different? I mean, we have a bunch
46:57
of the growers weren't even around a generation
47:01
ago. They entered into the industry. All anybody
47:04
knew was growth for 10 years straight. And then
47:09
it was like, oops. I think these are all very
47:12
valid points. And the thought that comes to mind
47:17
is. As long as I've been involved in contracting.
47:21
It's been a dumpster fire. That doesn't matter
47:28
if it was 20 years ago, yesterday, small or big.
47:34
That's a good point. And you've been riding bulls
47:39
in this rodeo longer than I have. Which doesn't
47:43
mean I'm any better. It just. Well. You know
47:48
you always get bucked off. Oh, Jesus, I've got
47:51
bucked off. A lot. But you know what? You get
47:54
right back up and keep riding. Sometimes I don't
47:58
want to. I do. I have so far. Oh, yeah. But,
48:03
I mean, point being, there's a lot to learn.
48:06
Like when we talk about the proprietary and public
48:09
thing, to your point, I think we have to learn
48:13
to do it better. That's my whole point is no.
48:17
Like, we've been through a cycle. And it's well
48:20
taken that these cycles have happened. We've
48:23
been through another cycle. Slightly different
48:28
cycle. Still a cycle. Yeah. Well, it's exciting.
48:36
But it's painful, but it's exciting. It's painful
48:39
and it's exciting. I'm finding more excitement
48:42
in this rebound than... any other one that i've
48:48
been through because i mean and i don't think
48:51
everyone is seeing or experiencing this or has
48:53
chosen to engage in it but i do think there's
48:56
more creativity this time around oh i think so
48:59
well i assume so because i wasn't around yeah
49:04
i mean i did work in the hop industry in 2003
49:07
and 2004 actually i can't i don't know if that's
49:11
an accurate statement i feel like i may offend
49:13
somebody by saying that because farmers in general
49:17
hop farmers specifically are some of the most
49:22
creative people that i know oh yeah and to say
49:25
there's more creativity or collaboration this
49:28
time around i don't know if that's i don't know
49:31
if that's an accurate statement there's more
49:33
opportunities for it i gotta think because there's
49:35
more customers there's more varieties i don't
49:40
know you know this more this is probably a whole
49:42
topic in and of itself is that uh Roy Farms has
49:46
chosen to not be so much of an island. So I think
49:52
for me and... Like you mean because historically
49:55
they were an island? Yeah, kind of. I mean, there's
50:00
kind of this unofficial, official, I guess, statement
50:03
that, well, we just don't play well in the sandbox
50:06
with others. And I think that that's really limited
50:08
us over the years. I've heard that before. But
50:10
yeah. And so, you know, you start saying that
50:12
type of stuff as a joke and then it just kind
50:14
of manifests itself and it becomes part of the
50:17
culture. And so and then me really wanting to
50:23
see creativity just as a general practice across
50:29
all ways of life that can be pretty limiting.
50:35
It can be emotionally damaging. Yeah. And so.
50:39
I guess maybe that statement was more related
50:42
to Roy Farms and the opportunities and the creativity
50:45
that I see us weaving, engaging in. I would like
50:52
to believe that it's broader than that and that
50:56
it is actually different. But I think that's
51:00
yet to be seen. I think that the accuracy of
51:02
that statement will be revealed in the next year
51:05
or two. And it's going to depend on how willing
51:09
people are to work together. I agree. It's weird
51:12
because it's like a self -fulfilling prophecy
51:15
that exists in this industry where like a narrative
51:20
will get written about someone or some company
51:26
or something. And there are example after example
51:30
of growers. and merchants and i'm sure this is
51:35
true in the brewing industry as well but where
51:37
like if you take roy farms well they don't play
51:41
well with others or they like to go it alone
51:45
or or whatever well then if you continually say
51:50
well no i want to collaborate and i want to work
51:52
with you and here's some ideas but they get shot
51:57
down because there's a label it forces Roy farms
52:04
to be more of an Island, more of an Island. And,
52:10
but again, that's, you know, some of that, it
52:14
looks like is, is changing a little bit, but
52:16
I think everybody just wants the best for growers
52:21
and merchants and, and their own farm. I do believe
52:27
that at, at times I reject that because. of the
52:32
decisions and actions by others. I do want to
52:37
believe that. So then where does it all get lost?
52:40
Well, that's what we're talking about on this
52:44
show. All we want to do is have fun, bring transparency,
52:50
vulnerability, talk about things that should
52:54
be talked about. Hopefully not offend anybody,
52:59
but I imagine. We're going to offend people.
53:01
We're going to offend people. There's no way
53:03
around it. Just the fact that we're talking about
53:05
stuff that's going to offend people. Oh, yeah.
53:07
And they'll get over it. And that's one of our
53:10
goals is to not point fingers. I'm sure there
53:13
will be some. I know that some of the topics
53:16
we're going to talk about I'll probably get fairly
53:19
emotionally charged about. Oh, yeah. But the
53:23
intent is not to point fingers. It's to talk
53:28
about the issues. Oh yeah. Well, and for clarity,
53:31
like a lot of the stuff that has happened or
53:36
a lot of challenges we've been, I've been part
53:42
of the problem on like I've, I've contributed
53:45
to some challenging relationships out there and
53:48
I've contributed to, you know, participating
53:51
in some decisions and things like that, that,
53:54
you know, and we're human, we're always going
53:56
to screw up and not do things. I must be the
54:00
only one that hasn't contributed. You've just
54:06
been out here on your island, on the Roy Farms
54:08
Island. Yeah. Just doing no wrong. Just checking
54:11
out the empty trellis. There's a lot of empty
54:17
trellis out there. Was. Was. Was. Was a lot of
54:22
empty trellis. We have had some traction and
54:24
we've been pretty successful at getting the trellis
54:27
back filled up. There's an interesting comment
54:29
by someone the other day. They're like, wow,
54:30
if you're out there pulling drip tube when it's
54:33
10 degrees outside, you got some stuff in the
54:36
works. Man, I wish we could get out in the fields
54:43
now and go look at some roots. What roots? Roots
54:49
we have to dig. What variety? I thought we're
54:53
not saying specifics. About what we're growing?
54:57
Yeah, we don't want to talk about that right
54:59
now. No, I might need to look at the plant health
55:01
of some different things. Yeah. We'll figure
55:04
that out. We need to go look at some pico roots.
55:07
We do need to go look at some pico roots. There
55:09
you go. See, that feels better. Okay, that's
55:11
fine. But, you know, when there's snow sitting
55:14
out there, it's kind of hard to. I mean, the
55:17
snow is not the problem. It's frozen ground underneath
55:20
it. Oh, yeah. Although it's supposed to heat
55:22
up to like 59 next week. I know, I saw that.
55:25
Just bring us a bunch of rain and snow. Snow
55:30
to the mountains. Snow to the mountains. Or rain
55:32
in the mountains. Actually, a little bit. No,
55:34
a little bit of rain in the mountains wouldn't
55:35
be that bad. Just get us some precipitation.
55:39
That'd be great. All right. I got something I
55:41
jotted down here. Bring it on. When is enough
55:45
enough? As an episode topic or a question? I
55:49
think that should be a future episode topic.
55:51
But I thought about it. And jotted it down when
55:56
we're talking about public versus private. Oh,
55:59
yeah. I mean, there's so much depth to that question.
56:03
What a deep person. Oh, yeah. There's a lot packed
56:08
in that little six foot hundred and... What do
56:12
you go? 160? 160 -ish. Man, I'm like carrying
56:18
around a whole extra mic on me. Not really. You
56:24
are a deep person. I mean, yeah. When is enough
56:30
enough? I thought about it when we're talking
56:32
about public versus private, but I think it's
56:34
pretty applicable to this industry reset. As
56:39
a farm, how much is enough, right? Because for
56:43
a while there, it was just, I want more. Oh,
56:45
yeah. And that seemed, that was kind of like
56:48
across the entire industry. Yeah, yeah. No, it
56:50
was the industry. Hey, we gave more hops as an
56:55
industry. We took care of that program. That's
56:57
something that is completely ridiculous in the
56:59
hop industry is just concern about the neighbor.
57:04
Is the neighbor going to get more market share
57:06
than me? Is the neighbor going to, oh, the neighbor's
57:09
putting up a yard. I must be doing something
57:11
wrong. Oh, yeah. Somebody told me a couple of
57:17
years ago that farmer mantra that. I don't want
57:20
all the land. I don't want to own all the land.
57:23
I just want to own my neighbor's land. Yeah.
57:30
Yeah, we should get into that. And the weird
57:34
thing is I don't think it's necessarily greed.
57:39
I think it might also just be, like you said,
57:41
rooted in fear in some regards. I think that's
57:46
also something that we're going to wrestle with.
57:49
And there's some assumptions in this statement,
57:51
but it's something that we're going to wrestle
57:53
with. And I think that a lot of people are going
57:57
to wrestle with is how much is enough. And that
58:01
could be coming from a merchant, could be coming
58:05
from a grower, could be coming from a grower
58:08
that's forging relationships with other growers.
58:11
I mean, I can tell you how much is not enough.
58:16
That is a whole. Other topic is the farms that
58:22
are currently operating at such a low acreage
58:26
number. It's just the economics just don't work
58:29
at all. Like, so you have to have enough, but
58:33
then how much is enough? I mean, I know my not
58:38
to go too deep into that, but my current theory
58:41
is that we should. to have our acreage full and
58:46
we shouldn't be out buying more land or you know
58:50
let's say roys are successful in what we're doing
58:53
and and the relationships that we have and and
58:56
so we are blessed to get more more market share
59:00
right i don't think that we want to go buying
59:04
capacity anything like that i think we are better
59:10
off to work with other like -minded farms that
59:14
just want to have a healthy supply chain and
59:17
you know aren't trying to say hey well i want
59:21
to put up another 400 acres because some land
59:25
came up if you want to do that go grow corn in
59:27
it that would be fantastic diversify but i really
59:32
think we're stronger together and i think as
59:34
a future industry that collaboration and like
59:38
you can be selfish by being selfless Or not selfish
59:45
in the way like greedy, but like you can look
59:48
out for yourself by working with others and making
59:51
sure they're successful as well. Yeah, it's tricky.
59:55
It's hard. I feel like we've made some progress
1:00:00
in that whole arena. But even having the realization
1:00:05
and, you know, to some degree answering that
1:00:09
question for us, what's enough? Looking outside
1:00:14
of the selfish and trying to be more selfless.
1:00:20
It's still hard. I don't know why. It's hard.
1:00:25
Because you're breaking farmer mentality. It's
1:00:28
true. You know, even taught from birth to just
1:00:32
like expand, expand, expand. Like you always
1:00:36
say, your previous generations had a land buying
1:00:41
habit. Habit. Oh, man. It's kind of like it was
1:00:46
a love for negotiating. That part doesn't surprise
1:00:52
me. And just land. Like, I mean, you know. Did
1:00:59
this thing get up to like 7 ,000 acres at one
1:01:01
point? I don't know, dude. It was ridiculous.
1:01:04
That's so much ground. It's too much. It's enough.
1:01:12
maybe more than maybe more than enough like maybe
1:01:15
if the neighbors want to own part of the neighbors
1:01:17
they could have some yeah yeah oh yeah yeah no
1:01:22
i mean i think you know market share land contracts
1:01:27
and gold everyone's gotta take a hard look at
1:01:31
that and what they have might be enough oh yeah
1:01:35
what they have might be too much what they have
1:01:38
might be too much Is an industry guaranteed we
1:01:40
have too much capacity? We have too much capacity
1:01:43
for sure. Either that or we'd have too few people
1:01:47
drinking beer. Yeah. And that's one of the unfortunate
1:01:49
things about this last cycle and why I feel like
1:01:53
it's one of the worst is because I feel like,
1:01:56
I mean, there's people that made smarter decisions.
1:02:01
Anyway, I don't want to label them as smart or
1:02:04
not smart. People made. different types of decisions
1:02:09
and some made decisions to, you know, expand
1:02:14
and build new facilities. And these facilities
1:02:17
are really expensive. And then the market tanks
1:02:21
and some of it was for expansion or some of it
1:02:24
was to meet this ongoing narrative that, you
1:02:30
know, you need to do this because quality is
1:02:33
important and it's true. Quality is important.
1:02:35
The people that supply quality, will survive
1:02:39
it's it's really important to deliver quality
1:02:43
um does that mean that you need to have a brand
1:02:47
new 20 some million dollar facility to do that
1:02:52
i don't know but there's like eight of them that
1:02:55
went in in the last four or five years that so
1:02:58
just think about all that i don't know misused
1:03:02
capital underutilized capital right now yeah
1:03:08
Also, I don't think if you rewind to 2022, which
1:03:18
I don't think any decisions were made to do that
1:03:21
after that point. You don't think anyone put
1:03:23
anything in? Well, maybe they put it in, but
1:03:26
the decision was already made. I think so. I'm
1:03:29
trying to think of it. I mean, because I know
1:03:30
there was, yeah, from like 2019 to 2022, 23,
1:03:33
there's probably eight new facilities that went
1:03:36
up. Some of them I had discussions with, and
1:03:41
the tea leaves were... There was still an increase
1:03:47
in contracting and activity, so it appeared that
1:03:54
that was going to be needed. So it's not like
1:03:58
pointing fingers. And like you said, a lot of
1:04:01
it's done from a standpoint of quality and being
1:04:04
able to get stuff. The theory was that there
1:04:10
would be acreage to support those. And now there's
1:04:13
not. Yeah. I got to imagine we probably have,
1:04:17
well, the acreage peaked at like 62 ,000 acres
1:04:20
or something. And we probably need something
1:04:24
like 48 ,000 or something like that is an industry.
1:04:27
So you got, you know, if each machine can do
1:04:32
a thousand acres, which is a gross generalization,
1:04:34
that's probably not accurate. You've got at least.
1:04:38
14 too many picking facilities out there. But
1:04:42
it sucks to say. It really sucks because that
1:04:47
is a massive overshot. Massive. How many facilities,
1:04:54
I wonder, went out in 07 -08? I don't know. If
1:04:58
we had Les Roy here, he could probably answer
1:05:00
that. Yeah, but it'd take like at least half
1:05:03
an hour to get the answer. It's true. And when
1:05:06
you listen to this. Mr. Roy, that's because you
1:05:09
are very detailed and your weave is strong and
1:05:15
wonderful. And in the right environment, very
1:05:20
much appreciated. Absolutely. Oh, I always appreciate
1:05:25
him. I'm so excited for that episode. What's
1:05:31
going to happen, unfortunately, is that, you
1:05:34
know, if... These facilities continue. They're
1:05:39
going to be bought for whatever pennies on the
1:05:42
dollar. But why would you buy one if the demand
1:05:46
isn't there? I mean, it depends on who. It depends
1:05:51
on business. It depends on who. It depends on
1:05:55
how cheap some of this stuff can get bought for.
1:05:57
If you can go buy a farm and basically buy the
1:06:00
facility for zero value and have it there. and
1:06:04
you have a trajectory or access to market where
1:06:10
you can grow your farm, then it can just sit
1:06:15
there and you can rip all the trellis down, farm
1:06:17
whatever you want. You have the land. You have
1:06:20
the facility that you paid, let's just say, nothing
1:06:22
for. And then when the opportunity is there,
1:06:25
you just turn the thing on. And so in that scenario,
1:06:29
it works. It's very unfortunate for the individual
1:06:32
that's going out. very fortunate for the one
1:06:35
that has growth plans but then back to that question
1:06:39
enough is enough was there a different way to
1:06:41
do that was there could we have not we but we
1:06:45
as an industry that participated in this could
1:06:48
we could we construct something to where that
1:06:53
individual gets to can gets to farm into the
1:06:57
future and it doesn't have to be this traditional
1:07:00
well, okay, we're selling and you're buying it
1:07:03
for pennies on the dollar and now I'm out and
1:07:05
you're in and you get stronger. I think there
1:07:09
are going to be a lot of scenarios like that
1:07:11
in the future. I mean, it's interesting because
1:07:16
it's going to be 100 % necessary that some people
1:07:22
are buying up land and picking machines. Because
1:07:25
if right now the industry is it, because we're
1:07:29
down to like... 35 or whatever as an industry
1:07:33
well some farms are only down 10 you know some
1:07:37
of them might have might have managed their fortunes
1:07:40
really well and had you know certain relationships
1:07:44
and and pathways and everything and they might
1:07:46
not be down any i don't know but that means that
1:07:50
there are farms that are at 50 or 30 or 20 of
1:07:54
capacity and I think there's probably a lot more
1:08:00
of those than anybody knows. But because of the
1:08:04
cost of the overhead, to your point earlier,
1:08:07
it's not sustainable. So you'll probably have
1:08:11
something like 15 ,000, 18 ,000 acres of capacity
1:08:15
go, quote, out of business. And then there won't
1:08:20
be enough capacity that's like operating farm
1:08:23
capacity. To fill demand. And so people are going
1:08:27
to have to go purchase other ranches because
1:08:30
those won't be a going concern anymore. Purchase
1:08:35
or partner. That's kind of my point. Well, yeah,
1:08:39
I think we like the idea of partnering. I like
1:08:42
the idea of partnering. Yeah, we got our hands
1:08:44
in a lot of our irons and a lot of fires. Yeah.
1:08:47
Some of those fires will be revealed in future
1:08:50
episodes. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. So let's talk about
1:08:54
cadence of episodes and when our next one will
1:08:59
come out. That's one thing to be successful.
1:09:01
We're really committed to is making sure there's
1:09:04
something consistent and interesting that those
1:09:09
that are willing to spend their time listening
1:09:11
will honor their time. How about that? Yeah.
1:09:14
Yeah. So I mean, that's one of the reasons why
1:09:17
it's taken so long to realize this project is
1:09:21
because. I have not been in a situation where
1:09:26
I could see coming out with regular content,
1:09:29
nor did I have the guest host, not co -host,
1:09:35
guest host, co -host, which is a whole side topic.
1:09:40
Oh, yeah, that'll come one of these days. Okay.
1:09:44
So it's taken a while to realize this. We realize
1:09:47
the importance of. regular content i believe
1:09:51
we have two a month programmed out for the year
1:09:56
yep yeah our goal is to get this one out by the
1:09:59
end of february and then roll into two a month
1:10:02
starting in march yep well we gotta get some
1:10:06
uh portable microphones so that we could do like
1:10:09
live from cbc or something like that portable
1:10:12
microphones you're kidding me oh my gosh you've
1:10:16
thought of everything We went, we went all in.
1:10:19
That's right. You know, to your point about the,
1:10:21
you know, it's taken a while. This has been a
1:10:25
dream of yours for a long time. Oh yeah. As long
1:10:28
as I've known you, like the desire for transparency
1:10:31
and hard discussions and all of that sort of
1:10:33
stuff has been front and center. It's just been
1:10:37
marinating. Just waiting. I've been curled up
1:10:42
in a ball in the corner waiting for my partner
1:10:45
in crime. okay you haven't been curled up you've
1:10:48
been crouched ready to pounce like that stupid
1:10:51
cat that we have actually the cat's getting a
1:10:55
little better now that it's not scratching the
1:10:56
furniture oh good yeah so that's the cadence
1:10:59
and then you know i think this episode was more
1:11:04
about the why and so i feel like we handled that
1:11:09
in somewhat of a roundabout way just a consistent
1:11:12
or a stream of consciousness Hopefully it's interesting.
1:11:17
I think it's interesting. It's definitely an
1:11:20
exaggerated version of what happens around here
1:11:22
on a daily basis. Captured it. Yeah, so we will
1:11:28
be more pointed in our discussions. We do have,
1:11:33
you know, topics pre -programmed here. And we've
1:11:38
tried to structure those so that they're relative
1:11:40
to what we anticipate happening. in the industry
1:11:45
throughout 2025. Oh, yeah. For sure. Even seasonality.
1:11:51
Mm -hmm. Really intentional. Yep. Now, if we
1:11:55
see something coming, hopefully we see it coming
1:11:57
from far enough away so we can pivot. Yeah. Nah,
1:12:00
we want to always be able to pivot, but we also
1:12:05
want to go in with intention. I need another
1:12:12
cup of coffee. What do you think? No dirt, no
1:12:16
flowers.