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UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall systems go clear, we lift.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What is going on? Everybody Happy Wednesday.
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: If you're watching Thursday, Friday, Saturday, like most, hope you're
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: having a good day. Hope you have some exciting plans
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: for the weekend and if not, Saturday.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: We have twelve fights.
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: Sorry, we went on a couple minutes late, and the
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: reason for that, Big Marley just notified me. This fight
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: got announced today and this is actually really big for DFS.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: We're only looking at eleven fights, which is terrible for DFS.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: So I was not excited one bit. We did get
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: a twelve added, though, Carl four to zh GG Canado,
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: I have not looked into one bit. Again, I just
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: found out ten minutes ago, so I was adding it
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: to the stone and everything. Big Marley did look at
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: it though, he said it's a clash of styles. Clash
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: of styles always excites me. So yeah, I was gonna
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: come into this card and say I never lied to everyone.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: This card's cheeks for DFS, Now, I take that back.
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, not the best card, but definitely not the
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: worst card. Phenomenal main events. As you guys can see,
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: the only five star fight. Big Marley has. Hey, I'm
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: a little more excited to talk about these now, Big
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: Marley twelve fights versus eleven's Night and Day in my opinion,
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: So how are we doing today?
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah? Now bad. I've just looked into those two.
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: I still gotta watch some film on them, but got
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: the overall idea of it. But yeah, bring it up
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: to twelve fights does help another card where people aren't
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: gonna know.
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: I mean a handful of these names I love.
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: The main event is gonna be awesome, but aside from that,
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: there's no real amazing fight to really look forward to.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: So hopefully it's a good DFS and that'll make it better.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Absolutely no one to say hi to right now.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: All we ask when people watching live watching on playback
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: is to hit that like button. Hit that subscribe button.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: Helps us out a ton any broad Slate overview for you,
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: Big Marley. Before we jump fight by fight.
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: I'm probably just gonna be loading up on that main event.
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: That's my only five star right now. Hopefully you can
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: talk me into making another one's five stars as we go,
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: but I feel like that's the one I really want
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: to target, and then I can really just get different
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: on the rest of the card. Might I might even
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: load up on this first fight. I started it off
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: with a three star. I'm gonna move it to a
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: four star right now just because of the clasher styles.
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: But yeah, we'll talk about it.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Sweet.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: Let me just look real quick at the pricing and where.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: That fighting might be. Price.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: I mean, if they don't want to duplicate any salaries,
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: which is usually what they try to do, but it
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: doesn't always work that way, it would have to be
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: a ninety three hundred, sixty nine hundred, which they might do.
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: I mean Ty Miller, who's the second highest price in
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: ninety two hundred minus three eighty nine. That would feel
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: a little steep, though if they went that route, I
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: think mainly a minus two forty. That's more comparison to
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: Alexi Thayanara right now, and we have Thayanara at eighty
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: eight hundred, So if they want to go, based on
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: what it should be, I'm expecting it to be an
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: eighty nine hundred seventy three hundred or eighty eight hundred
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: seventy four hundred.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: To start off the card.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: I would prefer if they went that route versus versus
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: if they go ninety three hundred and sixty nine hundred,
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: Other than that for my broad slid overview, I do
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: think the mid tier is solid. You got nurgoz Eye,
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: Bruno Lopez minus two fifty to finish, Sutherland Montana minus
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: two fifty to finish, and of course the main events
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Cell killed Gamrat would a fight that will be minus
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: one eighty to finish, So we do have all three
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: fights in the mid tier expected to finish. I think
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: you can leave money on this card as well, and
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of that does stem from the mid tier.
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: I think you could easily pick or plugging the plug
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: in the favorite and any of those fights drop down
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: into the dog. In those fights, you're not sacrificing much upside,
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: and that was actually gonna be I mean, this Tol
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: fight changes a lot for me because that was gonna
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: be my strategy, Like all right, you're gonna plug and
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: make a lineup plugin sall killed, takes all killed out,
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: go gam rot, which again that only gets you different
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: to an extent. But leave the four hundred plus, go
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: to Nergozay, take up Nergosaye Go Lopez, leave six hundred plus.
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: That's kind Sutherland Montana leave seven hundred plus that was
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: my strategy, or eight hundred plus that was my strategy.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: But again because this uh, this twelve fight was added,
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: that's gonna take ownership, that's gonna spread stuff out, the
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: combinations go up. It's a huge difference in dfs. So
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: I'm pumped actually, But we will start off with the
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: first fight of the night. We only have money line
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: odds for it. And let's see when they came out
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: come on fight odds. Sometimes it uh well, of course
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: is tweaking right now. I'll get to one when it
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: does load. I'll see what over.
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: An hour and fifteen minutes ago, what did it opened
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: at minus two hundred for four uh.
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: Okay, and then it went right to minus two forty
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: and say there or any other line.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Movement moved yeah, two minutes later, okay.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: Two minutes yeah, I was able to click on the
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: other one and not that okay, yeah minus two hundred
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: plus one seventy four. Two minutes later moved to minus
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: two forty plus two hundred and no other change there.
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: But again, this line is very fresh without too much
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: money on it, so I will be keeping a close
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: eye on where that goes. The only uh in the
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: only prop on this is under two and a half
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: and that is actually favored open plus one thirty. Now
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: it's minus one sixty eight. So right away looking at that,
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: this fight's favored to finish minus one sixty eight on
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: under two and a half. That kind of goes what
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: you said right away, you say, class the styles and
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: it's expected to finish. I'm already I'm gonna play this fight,
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: That's all I know. And two girls on short notice,
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: hoping they don't have cardio and they just go banging out.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: One's way better than the other.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: I'm I'm interested in this fight right away, right away,
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: regardless of the pricing. I'll let you take or break
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: it down though, because again I haven't looked at it
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: one bit.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Besides those couple of things.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's a good DFS fight.
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'm much more excited about it for DFS
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: than I am for watching purposes. Four oh was on
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: Dana White's Consentder series, and she landed one hundred and
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: seventeen strikes, significant strikes and three knockdowns in that fight.
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: She's just a short tank. She's got some decent boxing,
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: really good powerful hooks. She's only like five with two,
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: but she has knockout power. And what was I gonna say,
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: oh yeah, And she stuffed eleven takedowns in that fight
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: as well, which is good to see because Gigi looks
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: like she's not gonna want to strike with four row
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: at all. If she's gonna get her hand raise, it's
• 6:45
  Speaker 5: gonna have to come through the ground. It could be
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: a submission in round one, or she could just grind
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: out time on the ground. I don't know that she's
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: a good enough wrestler for that. I saw a lot
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: of trip takedowns, which I'm not a big fan of,
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: So I am.
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: Gonna pick four.
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: Oh, I'm gonna get four stars to four to zero
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: two stars to gg in this one. But I think
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: it's just a great DFS fight to start off our
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: night because of the class of.
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: Styles, either one of them dominates the fight.
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: We got one hundred points upside from either one, and
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: I also don't think that we'll get too much ownership
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: on either side as well. I feel like a lot
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: of people won't even know about this fight until late
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: in the week, and then they'll still have to do
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: the research. It's girls, so they're not gonna be too
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: stoked about that. So I think this is gonna be
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: my shoot a top three fight for me to target.
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: Possibly.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna be right there with you. I
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: mean class of styles expected to finish probably the or.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: It looks like it's gonna be the first fight of
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the card.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: Girls name people don't recognize. I'm expecting ownership to stay
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: in check. I am curious to see what the inside
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: the distance prop will beyond both of them.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: But I'm in.
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: I'm in on the favorite, I'm in on the underdog.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: And again I have to look into a little more,
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: but I've seen enough. It doesn't matter how good, how bad,
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: whatever it may be. I mean, both of them taking
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: on short notice too. I do like that because if
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: it gets extended to the set or third, hoping at
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: least one of them has better cardio and can take over.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: So I like it. And again I got way more
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: excited to talk.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: About this card for DFS after coming on and finding
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: out we did just get a twelve fight added. Pretty late,
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: I should have said from the top, this is an
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: Apex card as well, five pm Eastern at the Apex.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: This one is going down, all right, We'll keep it rolling.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: Next fight on the card five and four were Juliana
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: Miller taking on seven and four Ravena Olivera minus two
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: excuse me, minus three oh five is Miller plus two
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: forty nine is Olivera minus one seventy nine for this
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: fight to finish, Miller minus won ten.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Inside the distance Olivera plus four thirty five.
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: As you can see going on on the Monday, I
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: put all these odds up on Monday. Miller was minus
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: two sixty Monday. Now find yourself at minus three oh five,
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: and then this fight was minus one fifty five to
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: finish on Monday. Now it's minus one seventy. Miller opened
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: plus one four forty five. Inside the distance was plus
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: one oh five Monday, and now is minus one ten.
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: It's not every day I am confident in a five
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: and four fighter, But I am confident in Juliana Miller.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: I like her a lot this week because she wants
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: to get the fight to the mat. I think she
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: will have a big advantage on the mat. She has
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: plus one thirty five by submission. Big Marley open plus
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: two hundred. I'm gonna have a bunch of Juliana Miller
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: at eighty nine hundred. I think she very well could
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: be the highest score on the slate, and I would
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: not be surprised. I do expect Ownership to be there
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: a little bit, though I don't think it's gonna sneak
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: past people.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: I hope it does.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: But on the other side, I'm going to play a
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: little Olivera just because if I am correct on the
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: more the higher own Miller is, the more interest I
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: have in Olivera because of the leverage, and Juliana Miller
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: pushes a pace, she blocks, punches with her head. Olivera
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: will have the striking advantage. So this is another fight
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: I'm looking as a class of styles. I'm definitely on
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: the Miller side. I think she'll get her down eventually
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: submit her. I like her a lot eighty nine hundred,
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: but when we're talking dogs, if their wins, I do
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: think she has passed the score.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: So another fight.
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: Two ladies fights to kick off the card, and two
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: I am definitely interested in.
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I am much more interested in the Miller side.
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: I really don't. I'm not confident in her. But for DFS,
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: if anyone's gonna score one hundred plus in this fight,
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: it's gonna be Miller. Olivera will have the striking edge,
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: but she's just too low volume to score well in
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: the decision period, I think. So I think we're gonna
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: need a TKO for OLIVERA to have a chance at
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: the optimal lineup. But as you mentioned, Miller blocks punches
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: with her face, and I think that the TKO is
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: somewhat possible, So for emmy, I'd be okay with it.
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: A little bit of Olivera, but I like Miller in
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: all four mats. I think she should be looking for
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: takedowns early and often, and the biggest advantage in this
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: entire fight will be her grappling edge. So I think
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: it could be a three round grappling clinic, or it
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: could be a submission, and we're gonna get a big.
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: Score for Miller, So I do like her.
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: I almost made it five star Miller, one star Olivera
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: just because it is DFS, but I think Olivera will
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: be super loan TKO is a possibility, so I'd be
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: okay with like ten to fifteen percent or so.
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And again for me, the higher own Juliana Miller
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: is obviously the more interest.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: I haven't oli there, and I do expect her to
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: get a.
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: Decent amount of ownership at only eighty nine hundred has
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: continued to take money, and that's still chalk I'm gonna
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: eat again now with twelve fights. Excuse me, it makes
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: me feel better about eating some chalk with more combinations
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: and more spread out ownership. L Right, we'll keep it
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: rolling to the next fight on the card, one that
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: is expected to go the distance. Miles John's minus one
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: fifty five taking on Jesse Rojas Rosas plus one thirty
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: five plus one ten. For this fight to finish, we
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: have Rosas the underdog with the better inside the distance
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: profit plus two hundred Miles John's plus three seventy five.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, this one's easy for me.
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: I like, never play Miles John's in DFS hasn't got
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: to finish since twenty twenty one, low volume. As you
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: can see on the stone, I am not playing him
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: at eighty six hundred if i'd only a handful of teams.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: And yeah, I mean, anytime you have a seventy six
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: hundred dollar fighter who's plus two hundred inside the distance
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: plus three point fifty by submission, I think it's really
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: clear now to make it things even better, Jesse Rosas
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: is Rahul Rosas Junior's brother, so you also do have
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: that as well. Obviously, training with him can get it
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: on the mats is good when he does get down there.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: With all that being said, I'm picking Miles Johns by
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: decision because I think his takedown defense is enough to
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: keep the fight on the feet, and John's definitely fought
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: the way better competition. But again, we're playing for ceiling.
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: I don't really care who I'm picking. If Johns wins
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: the decision, it doesn't matter for DFS.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: So I definitely have way more interest in Rosas. But again,
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: He'll probably be one of the more popular dogs for
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: all the reasons I just said Rosas are passed. I
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: don't even love Rosas, but he definitely has upside as
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: you can see by the inside the distance prop.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: What do you think?
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm on Roslas. I'm picking him to win.
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: He's gonna be one of my highest to one hunderdogs
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: on the card. I'm probably not gonna play any Johns.
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: The advance would give to Johns would be like one
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: punch knockout power, but I just don't expect that from him.
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: He is low volume as well.
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: He's a good wrestler too, but he just doesn't wrestle enough,
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: so I don't know who I even give the edge
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: of there too, But Rosas on the feet, he's more aggressive.
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: I think he'll throw more volume.
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: He has worse striking defense, which could we do him
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: getting knocked out, But I just like his all around
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: game where I think he's the better submission grappler.
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: I think.
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: He's the better scrambler. I think he'll be the more
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: active striker with more tools in his striking toolbox. So
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: my preferred play, preferred bet, everything in this one is
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: gonna be Rosas. And I do think it's good that
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: Ravul Rosas is his brother. I believe he's his younger
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: brother as well, so maybe he's learning from Jesse and
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: I like that as well. You got eleven or nine
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: years younger than John's. I believe it's John's last fight
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: on his contract too. I think just everything lines up
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: for this being a good fight for Rosa. So if
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: I'm making limited lineups, so I'm gonna x out John's,
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: I'd be okay tossing them in a couple if I
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: was mming.
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: But Rosas is somebody I will be targeting.
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: I'll be clicking on, you know, early in my lineups
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: rather than a last spot in my lineups, and I
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: think is a pretty good fighter.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't argue with any of that. I just
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: I do want people to be cautious.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: If they're gonna go ros Sauce Junior to start, and
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: then they're gonna go Juliana Miller, and then they're gonna
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: go Quill and Soul Killed and then diego Ferrera or
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: whatever may be, you are kind of start. Look, you're
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: asking to hold hands with a lot of people. So
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: because I do think Rosace is one of the more
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: chalky dogs on the slave.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: But uh yeah, twelve fights.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: You can definitely get different in plenty of ways, Miles
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: John's is not a way that I'm looking to get
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: very different. All right, let's head over to the ship
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: a Nation homepage. As you can see, as many of
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: you guys saw, the main deal we have going on
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: right now is our all Ex's special usually ninety nine
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: dollars for your first month. You get Discord, you get
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: sabers In, you get all of the sports listed above,
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  Speaker 3: only forty nine dollars for your first month bottom left
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: joined the Nation. There are also multiple other deals if
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: you want to just give us a try, and you
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: don't want to pay the full forty nine to start,
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: you get it five days, four nineteen dollars as well
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: with Sabersim, with the Discord, PGA locks Tomorrow, MLB every
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: single day of course MMA NASCAR on Sundays, shout out
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: to Eric does a phenomenal job in the NASCAR streets,
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: and just the Discord alone, in my opinion, is worth
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: any package. So we would love to have you five days,
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: nineteen dollars all act As special or if you just
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: play MMA and you want that far right single sport MMA,
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: you can see the options right there. Twenty nine dollars
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: for our content. If you do want to add Sabersim,
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: just twenty dollars more, we.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: Would love to have you.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: And if you do join any package, I highly recommend
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: getting in the discord. All right, let me zoom back in.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: You're gonna go to the next fight on the car.
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: This one is expected to finish Manuel Sosa minus two
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: sixty taking on Richie Miranda plus two fifteen minus one
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: fifty for this fight to finish Sosa plus one fifteen
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: inside the distance Branda plus four hundred Sosa round one
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: plus three twenty five.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: I'll let you take this one away to start.
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, another good fight. I want to target both sides
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: of this one. Sosa crazy knockout power. He had two
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: knock downs in his UFC debut and knocked out Oki cold.
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's just a nasty striker, but he really
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: is going to rely on his striking. I don't see
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: him going for any takedowns. He's not crazy volume, but
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: he doesn't need to be with his type of power.
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: If he hits once, it could be over Miranda. I
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: think he's a pretty good boxer if we're turning knockouts off.
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: I think he would be okay in a striking match here,
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: but he's gonna need to mix in takedowns, and he
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: looked like a pretty damn good wrestler to me. I
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: think that if that's his, you know, his main goal
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: in this fight, I like him to actually win the fight.
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: I think he could land, you know, two to five takedowns,
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: control the fight for a decent amount of time on
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: the ground, and the more that he could wear out Susa,
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: the more power he could take away from those knockout shots.
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: Even though he got that knockout late and the Okie
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: fight I mean he carries his cardio will Soso. That is,
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: so I would still worry even in the third round
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: about those knockout shots. But at seventy one hundred dollars
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: man Miranda, I think it put up ninety plus in
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: a decision win. But I also think he could get
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: a submission at some point as well. I'm definitely gonna
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: be overweight on Miranda, but Susa is just a type
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: of fighter that I would just be afraid to fade
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: too much because he could. I mean, really, he could
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: get a first sixty second knockout. He's got that much power,
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: and then you're probably you're probably dead at eighty six
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: hundred dollars, so or not.
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: I mean he's ninety one. Okay, at ninety.
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: One hundred dollars, I mean, I don't love that as much,
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: but I'm still gonna have to play a little bit
• 17:42
  Speaker 5: of Sosa my preferred play to click on those Miranda.
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: And I think he will be less owned than Rosas, which.
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: I like as well.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I pretty much agree with all that. He'll definitely
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: be lower owned than Rosas. Yeah, I'm I think I'm
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: in a cap or at least be right around probably
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: CAP because if I had twelve so so I think
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: I'd be fine with that. But as round one prop
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: at twenty three and a half percent, he's kind of
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: low volume. He relies a lot on that power and
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: he's just a striker. And if we're already talking about
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: Julianna Miller, who I like a lot, the new girl,
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Carlo Fora, who I'm gonna like a lot right in
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: that same range Asplan throws a lot of volumes, Diyanaro
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: wants on the mat. I think Diego Ferrera is interesting.
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: There's a nuper tiers absolutely loaded. So someone that's not
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: expected to really finish in round one, he's actually not
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: even expected to finish period at plus one point fifteen.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: As just a striker, he does follow down my list
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: a little bit. And I agree with everything you said
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: about Miranda. Actually was pretty impressed with him. And if
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: you do look at where this line opened, Sosa opened
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: at minus five hundred, two minutes later was minus two
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: eighty one, and Miranda still has taken a little money
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: after that, so the market has bought some Miranda. He's
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: only seventy one hundred, and yeah, I think he can
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: maybe outwork Sosa a little bit as long as he
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: does not get knocked out.
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: So I'd prefer Miranda in this one.
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: Well again, Sosa has a lot of power. Like everything,
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: Big Marley said, the fight's expected to finish. I don't
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: think you should fade, but I do think the run
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: one prophet plus three twenty five, which is twenty three
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: and a half percent. I do think right around there
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: is probably the max that I want to be on him,
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: as I do prefer Miller, and I do prefer four
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: to Zho as the favorites that we've talked about thus
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: far more than him. All Right, we're gonna take it
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: to the heavyweights. We got Louis Sutherland minus one seventy,
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: Jose Louise plus one forty nine minus two fifty for
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: this fight to finish, Sutherland plus one forty inside the distance,
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: Louise plus one seventy. And again I looked, I said,
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: Jose Louise, because that's what has on fight odds, and
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: that's where I'm reading it off.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: Jose Montana. You guys get who I'm talking about.
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: On Monday, Louis Sutherland was minus one fifty five now
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: finds himself as a minus one seventy favorite. So little
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: money has come in on him. But I kind of
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: said it from the top. I like the mid tier.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: All three mid tier fights are expected to finish minus
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: two to fifty is one of the best on the card.
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: I think you can easily plug in Sutherland and drop
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: to Jose as a way to get different, and that
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: will leave eight hundred plus. Obviously, you don't need to
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: just all leave all eight hundred. You can upgrade if
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: you want to. Yeah, To be honest, don't have that
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: strong of a lean. Before I came on this show,
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: I thought we had eleven fights, and I was gonna
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: say my preferred is plug in Louis, drop lose Louis
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: to Jose, and leave the eight hundred. You have to
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: get different on eleven fight cards. I still don't hate that.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: Maybe that still is my.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: Favorite approach for this twelve fighter, but I just like
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: this fight in general. What are your thoughts.
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: I don't know why Montana got to call up to
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: the UFC, to be honest with you, He's got six wins.
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: Four of those wins were against zero and zero records,
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: Like he's done nothing to earn this spot in the UFC,
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: and he looks like he is a heavyweight grappler, which
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: is a not a good thing in the heavyweight division.
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: I don't think I don't think he's a good wrestler.
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: If we're just starting on the ground, I think he
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: would be okay. He's gonna be shooting for shooting for
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: submissions here. I just don't think he's good enough to
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: get takedowns against a big guy in Sutherland. Sutherland, I
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: think you get takedowns and be fine in top control
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: if he wanted to. But I like Sutherland to knock
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: this guy out. I just don't believe in Montana. If
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: Sutherland doesn't get takedowns and doesn't get a knockout, I
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: really don't want exposure to him.
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: But those are the reasons I am playing him.
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: Plus, he's only eighty five hundred dollars going against what
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: I believe to be a scrub. So I want to
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: be overweight to Sutherland here and hope that it doesn't
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: go the distance, and I'm gonna be underweight, maybe even
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: fading Montana. To be honest with you, I just think
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: he is almost submission or bust from what I've seen,
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: and I haven't seen enough.
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: There's not a lot of tape on him.
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: Well, the tape that I did see just was not impressive,
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: and his opponents were even less impressive. So give me
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: Sutherland here. I think the lines not wide enough.
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: To be honest, man, I will say fading Montana, that's
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: gotta be tough. He's plus one seventy inside the distance
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: and plus two to seventy five by sub those are
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: pretty strong numbers. If he does win at seventy seven hundred,
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: he more than likely is optimal on this card.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: So I totally get what you're saying.
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: He's fought nobody doesn't look great because he's eight hundred cheaper.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: I think he is my.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: Preferred side in this one, but I'll play both sides.
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: I do like this fight a decent amount. I love
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: how they put these fights next to each other because
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: it's both in the mid tier. It's also minus two
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: fifty to finish. It's a clash of styles. Like it's
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: pretty much copy and paste last fight in this fight
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: in my opinion, But we got the year Ergas forty seven,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: Bruno Lopez plus one twenty seven minus two fifty for
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: this fight to finish Dear minus or Dear plus one
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: hundred inside the distance Lopez plus two fifty inside the distance,
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: uh Nergazey in round one plus two fifty again like
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: the last fight, uh Nergaze on the feet, well have
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: the decision. He's plus with one to fifteen by Ko,
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: Lopez plus six seventy five Lopez by sub plus four
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: hundred Ergozai plus two thousand on the feet in Ergazai
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: on the mat is Lopez now Ergoza.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: I will give him props.
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: He had the back to back fights where he got
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: submitted and looked terrible off of his back. He didn't
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: make improvements last fight though, so like gun to my head,
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: if I'm making a pick, I am on the Ergazai side.
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: With that being said, though you can easily leave six
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: hundred plus, you're not giving up much on the money line,
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: You're not giving up much ceiling on the eleven fight card,
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: I was for sure gonna go with more Lopez so
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: I could leave that money. It's a little closer now
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: with twelve fights, but I think it's close still enough
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: with the money line, ceiling props that I'm gonna go
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: with the underdog.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: And this is just pure pure game theory.
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: It's not like all right, I think Lopez is the
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: better fighter, because I actually don't think that, but it's
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: close enough with the lines that I'm gonna probably lead
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: to the saving six hundred, or at least saving the
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: money with the dog.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: What about you?
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I like Lopez more than I like Montana, but
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: I am picking Ergoza this one. I think most of
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: this fight will take place on the feet, and I
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: think Norgose is just a better all around striker. I
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: think he has more knockout power as well. But again,
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: with him, I would definitely worry about a decision, especially
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: if he's gonna be spending any time on his back
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: and not scoring.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: I just don't think a decision is gonna be enough
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: for him.
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: So this is gonna be closer to a three star
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: fight than it is a five star fight for me.
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: But the clash of styles is why I put it
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: at four stars. Lopez, I mean, he's a big guy.
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: He could get a knockout, but he should be looking
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: for takedowns in this fight, and if he does get takedowns,
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: I think he's decent at controlling fights and Nergose does
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: not have a bottom game. So for that reason, I
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: am cool with Lopez and I would be fine getting
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: different and taking a Nergose lineup down to Lopez and
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: leaving that money on the table. But I feel like
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: there's there's better fights on this card, especially if Lopez
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: wins the first round and then he starts to tire out,
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: Nergose comes back, wins the second, maybe knocks them out
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: in the third. I don't even think that's gonna be
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: enough at that point, and especially not gonna be enough
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: if he just wins the second and the third on
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: the scorecards. So I don't know, Man, I like that
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: it is in the mid range, but I feel like
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: there's a decent chance it's gonna go the distance. So
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: I'm on the Nergose side, but I don't really want
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: to be overweight to either of these guys.
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: You like the Sutherland Montana fight more?
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: I do, because I like Sutherland the most of the four.
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: Okay, I like this fight a little more because I
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: think it's gonna be higher paced. I always worry about
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: heavyweight fights that they can be staring matches, especially with
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: the classes styles. That way, I do like them both.
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: I like them both more than you like them. A
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: lot of that again, though, comes down to salary, like
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: you can plug in, man, walso said ninety one hundred
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: and just drop to Sutherland and leave six hundred right there.
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: And I don't think you're giving up much ceiling. Actually
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: you might even be getting inside the distance prop. What
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: was You're definitely getting it with nergozay at plus one
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: hundred versus plus one fifteen, no, plus one forty for Lewis.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: You're giving up a little bit there.
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean go drop and save seven hundred
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: and Ergozi, you're getting a better inside the distance prop.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: So mainly the pricing being able to leave money when
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: you do play those two fights minus two fifty to
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: finish is good on this card. But I do understand
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: your hesitancy, and I will not lock this fight by
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: any means. As you can see, only one five star
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: fight for Big Marley. All right, what's up, Little Neck?
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: Great to see you. Great to see you for sure?
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: Preseason football. I know you're pumped tomorrow man. That's awesome too. Yeah,
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: that's another thing for the discord. As you can see,
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: we're not gonna have excuse me, paid preseason contents, but
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: we will have Little Neck and others in the Discord
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: playing the Hall of Fame game and other stuff. They
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: do a phenomenal job. I'm sure little neck will have
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: his towers. So just another reason to get in to
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: ship a nation dot com and get in the discord.
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: Next fight on the card, heavyweight fight, Steven Asplin minus
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: two ninety two gearmet PAT plus two thirty nine minus
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: one forty five for this fight to finish Asplin plus
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: one hundred inside the distance PET plus five twenty five
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: Asplin in round one plus three twenty five. Looking at
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: it on the stone, it was minus one fifteen to
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: finish on Monday. Now it's minus one forty five.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: And then it was minus two ninety or it was
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: minus two to seventy Stephen Asplin.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Now it's minus two ninety two.
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: So some money coming in on the under and the
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: Asplin side. Yeah, a lot of people are gonna see
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: that ten point zero five significant strikes per minute. I
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: will say it's a three fight sample, and a lot
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: of that was in one fight again Sean Sheriff.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: If you haven't watched it, go back and watch it.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: If you have, you were definitely remember the fight because
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: it was insane. Sheriff took a lot of damage Asplin
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: kept throwing it out, scored big on DraftKings had a
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: great speech after nine k though, is a big boy
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: price tag for some that doesn't wrestle.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: So what do you think?
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not sure on this one either. I feel
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: like Pat, they're both strikers. I think Pat is the
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: cleaner striker, maybe more knockout power, but he's lower volume.
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: Aspalin is gonna be the one with the volume. He's
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: a lot tougher too. I think he would have the
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: cardio edge, the aggression edge, which maybe that helps Pat
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: as well. If Asplind is going to be aggressive, I
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: think that that kind of opens Pat up for a knockout.
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: But if Asplin's not getting knocked out by Patrino, I
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: just don't know that he's gonna get knocked out by Pat.
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: And I do like Asplind to be our overall minute
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: winner in this one. So my main word is just
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: the nine K pricetag. I don't expect what we saw
• 28:45
  Speaker 5: in his UFC debut because Pat's not as bad as
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: Sean Sheriff, but I do like Asplin to still bring
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: a pace and even in a three round striking match,
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: I think he could. I think he could score more
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: than ten x that nine K price tag, So I
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: probably prefer Asplin in this one, but I like other
• 29:05
  Speaker 5: favorites more, and if that leads me to Pat in
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: my lineup, I think I'd be cool with that. But
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: my thing is at seventy two hundred, I would rather
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: drop one hundred and go down to Miranda. So I
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: can't like Pat too much either in my opinion. So
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: maybe a fight where I'm in line with ownership, not
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: really taking a stand on either side, but I don't
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: want to fade either side as well.
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: I think both of them have a chance of being
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: on the oppo line.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: You see who Sheriff's fighting next.
• 29:34
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I hate these matchup from Gable Stephens
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: like what it was?
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: Something better than that?
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with what you were saying.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: So how abouts, because I like oiv Era more than Pat,
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: I'm picking Aspalin to win, like you said, if you're
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: not getting knocked out by Roberto like the dude like
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: Aspalin just has a great chin, has very good cardio
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: for the division, like, I just don't see him getting
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: knocked out, And Pat's low volume enough feels difficult for
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: him to win a DECI So I like Mirando more.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: I like OLIVERA.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Moore.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: That's that Pat sandwich in between. How about for you?
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: I definitely like Juliana Miller more than Asplin.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: What's your thoughts on Sosa versus Asplin though, right there
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: with one hundred apart.
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: Well, I like Asplin more because I'm picking Sosa to lose,
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: but I would I like Pat more than ala Vera though.
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: Okay, that makes sense. But you do like Asplin more
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: than Sosa because you're picking. Yeah, I agree. I like
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: Asplin more just because the sheer volume he can throw
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: up and his inside the distance prop is better. Ron
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: oneprop is about the same. So I do prefer Asplin,
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: but I definitely prefer Juliana Miller. I prefer Carl Carl
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: Furrow to start it off, and then we'll get to
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: some other ones above.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: But I don't love Asplin. I don't hate them.
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: I like it more than Sosa, but again, I'm probably
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: gonna cap his ownership Kapam at thirty percent for sure,
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: and probably even a little lower than that.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: So not my favorite fight.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: I got Asplin winning, probably by decision, Yeah, probably by decision.
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: But it is the small cage, which is a big
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: deal when you get to the heavyweights. It's a lot
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: easier for them to close the distance, all right, And
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: as was my preferred play in this one too, I
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: don't like Pat too much in this next fight.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: I'm excited for this one. I think it's gonna be
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: pretty good. We got Ty.
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: Miller taking on Billy ray Goff. Ty Miller minus three
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: eighty nine, which is the second biggest on the card.
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: Billy Goff plus three ten minus one seventy for this
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: fight to finish, Miller minus won twenty inside the distance,
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: Goff plus five hundred. We're looking at it's what it
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: was on Monday. Ty Miller has taken some money. He
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: was minus three fifty. Now he's minus three eighty nine.
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: The under has also taken some money. It was minus
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: one sixty now it is minus one seventy. Ty Miller
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: is inside the distance prop open plus one hundred now
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: minus one twenty. Goff open plus four to fifteen now
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: plus five hundred. Everything I said, ty Miller is taking money,
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: the under is taking money a little bit. Twenty six
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: years old, seven to zero. I think this kid's pretty good.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: Billy ray Goff's gonna come and fight for your dollar, though,
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: which is what you want if you're gonna play Ty Miller,
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: because he's just a striker, so another guy that's not
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: gonna wrestle. I do prefer ty Miller, even at probably
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: higher ownership and a higher salary. I do prefer him, Man, Sosa,
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: and Asplin though all three air strikers, all three air
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: price next to each other.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: Break down this fight. Compare those three as well.
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I like ty Miller.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: This kid looks really good. He is tall, long, high volume,
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: really good punches, but he's got solid kicks, I mean
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: knees as well. I think he's the best striker that
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: Goff has ever faced, and he's just gonna continue to
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: get better as well. So I am picking Miller to
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: get a knockout in this one. I do definitely like him,
• 32:55
  Speaker 5: but Goff at seven k Man, if he wins the fight,
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: I feel like he is on the optimal lineup because
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: he is.
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: Also a high paced fighter. He's a brawler.
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: He would be more of a wrestler as well, but
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: I think he is live for a first round knockout
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: or a wrestling based win.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: Either of those I'm cool with.
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: But the longer the fight goes and the longer it
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: stays on the feet, the more I think Miller starts
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: to read him and just starts to pick him apart,
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: and those punches start to add up.
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: And I think he puts him away at some point.
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: But I also think if he's not spending time on
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: his back, I think there'll be enough volume even in
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: a late knockout for him to be on the optimal
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: lineup here. So he is my favorite of that group
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: him the nassplend and Susa, but goff Man at seven K,
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: I don't want to be too far under the field
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: on him. I think he is the lowest I'm looking
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: to go salary wise, but I'd be fine with twenty
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: percent Goth, but I would imagine I got double that
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: in Miller.
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I will say not the hottest, take
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: that the lowest salary. The only one below him is
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: Darren Elkins, who we will get to.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: In a little bit.
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: But for Billy Ray, Goff pretty similar to Gilbert or
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: Bina last week, which we did talk about as well,
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: or being ahead a lot going fro him with Seppo.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, who man, what an absolute bomb.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: But they're being very high owned the fight expected to
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: finish all that Billy ray Goff. Miller is not gonna
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: be as high owned as Chepo was last week. But again,
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: most of Billy ray Goff's wins will be optimal at
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: seven k. If you're just looking at his money line
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: plus three ten, you go to odds convert plus three
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: ten is twenty four point four percent. I do think
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: that'll be well over the field if you do have
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: twenty four percent, which I think is probably a pretty
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: solid number to get to get to his money line.
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: When he wins twenty four percent of the time, Big
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: Marley sounds like he thinks he's going to be optimal,
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: like twenty three of those twenty four percents. So yeah,
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: I think it's a pretty easy math equation there to
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: get overweight golf, and you can get overweight on Miller.
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: Just load it up on the fight and if it's optimal,
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: you will be happy. So I like to fight quite
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: a bit. I agree with everything you said. Before we
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: go to the next fight again, we got four fights left.
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: Just want to say I appreciate everyone hanging out with
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: many watching on playback. Just do us a second or
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: take a second and do us a favor. Hit that
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: thumbs up, hit that subscribe button. We greatly appreciate it. Also,
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: if you got any hot takes in terms of underdogs
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: for this card, I would love to hear them in
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: the YouTube comments below. All right, next fight on the card,
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: another class of styles, good amount of class of styles
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: on this one. Back to some ladies. We got Alexa
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: Thiyanara minus two sixty, Amanda Laimos plus two to fifteen
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: plus one sixty for this fight to finish, Diyanara plus
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: two to forty inside the distance Lamos plus five hundred. Obviously,
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: I mean this fight was plus one thirty five to
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: finish on Monday now plus one sixty. Dyanara was minus
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: two thirty five now minus two sixty five. So the
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: under or minus two sixty. Excuse me, the under no,
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: excuse me. The over and Diyanara have taken money. The
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: over is taken quite a bit of money, which at
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: first you'd be like, all right, that Lowerd's interest in
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: this fight. But that being said, if you look at
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: thyan r As three UFC wins one oh six, one
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: oh three, and one nineteen. The one O three and
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: the one to nineteen were decision wins. Ten minutes plus
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: of control of takedown. She wants to wrestle Lamos wants to.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Keep it on the feet.
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: If she does get Lamos down, she will probably control
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: her most of the fight. We have seen in Lamos's
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: last two fights against Gillian Robertson and Tatiana Suarez, obviously
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: two good grappler and wrestlers. Once they got her down,
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: no getting up from Lamos, but she did say defensively
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: sound and was not submitted in either. So I guess
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna go base and everything I've seen recently,
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna say Thianar gets a takedown around, spends it
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: on top, wins the unanimous decision.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: Does she score enough.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: At eighty eight hundred if that is the route that
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: goes down, and then I'll let you talk about what
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: you think happens.
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: Man. I don't know. I feel like it definitely I'd
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: be okay with eight hundred. It's not something I would
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: want to be for.
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: Then the lineups, but I am I think Dyinar is
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: my preferred play in this one.
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: I don't know why I put two stars for this spot.
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: I think it's closer to a three or four star
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: fight actually, because of Thianar's wrestling I don't even know
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: that she it's really a clash of styles. It's it's
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: gonna have to be a clash of styles for her
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: to look like a minus two sixty five dabor because
• 37:25
  Speaker 5: she's a decent striker, but Lamos is probably the better striker,
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: more knockout power, just more experienced. Overall, She's beat the
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: current champ, which is a good thing, and she's only
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: seventy four hundred dollars, So I'm cool with Lamos exposure,
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: but I don't think Lamos is gonna score one hundred
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: plus where Thianara. If she is going to wrestle and
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: land five plus takedown, she could score one hundred plus,
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: especially because she'll strike on top of that as well.
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: So I prefer Thyanara. But if I if I need
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: to get to Miller instead and that puts me onto Lamos,
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: I'd be okay with that. But I think it's a
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: decent fight to target and one that maybe the UFC
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: wants Diyanar will win. I'm not sure about that, but
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: if that's the case, then I would like her even
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: more because I would imagine they think she's gonna go
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: out there and wrestle because they love to feed lambosh
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: to wrestlers. She is thirty nine towards the end of
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: her career. Thyanaar is on the up and up, so
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: I think it does make a lot of sense. She's
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: got the looks as well, So yeah, give me thyan
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: R to win this fight on the ground. But I
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: think the money line should be a little bit closer
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: than it is.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: I do think the UFC wins Tyanaar Lamos has lost
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: your last two.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: She's thirty nine years old. She has that big win.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: Like you mentioned, tyan are only twenty eight years old,
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: fourteen and one. I mean you can see it opened
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: minus three hundred Tayanara like thirty minutes later ish, and
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: the forty minutes later was minus two twenty five. Seven
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: hours later after that was minus two oh five, and
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: then ever since she was minus two o five she's
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: continued to take more since then. I do think that
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: the UFC wants Thyanara Lamos. She's pretty tough to take down.
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: But once she is flat on her back, if she's
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: not against the fence, and even if she is, she
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: doesn't get up much. But when Thinara is closing the distance,
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: Lamo hits like a dude, Like, I mean, man, she
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: throws hard and she can crack, and if she does
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: land on the chin of Thyanara, it's probably gonna be
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: trouble for her. But I mean, I hate to see
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: Lamos open plus four hundred inside the distance now plus
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: five hundred. It's not going the right way. Money line
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: going against her, inside the distance going against her. The
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: overtaking money not too much is lining up for the
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: Lamos side, so she does fall down the list. In
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: terms of dogs, I'm fine with Thyanara, And what I
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: think about Diyanara is the ass one time, Miller and Sosa.
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: I'd be fine plugging all of them in, taking them out.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: Leave four hundred and go down from Time Miller, leave
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: two hundred from Aspa and leave three hundred from Sosa.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: She at least is gonna try to wrestle unlike those three.
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I like Thyanara. I do like four to
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: Zho and Miller more for their upside, but I will
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: have some as I do think she's gonna want to
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: get it to the mat early and often. All right,
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: let's get to the highest priced and the biggest favorite
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: on the card, ninety six hundred Yah DIVI is minus
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: an eight twenty five favor Tarren Elkins plus five seventy
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: four minus three twenty five for this fight to finish
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: DIVI minus three hundred inside the distance Elkins plus one
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: thousand yadier in round one plus one hundred. I mean
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: all the money has caught, like round one to VI
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: Open plus one fifty now plus one hundred inside the
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: distance to I Open minus two thirty five now minus
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: three hundred money line to VY Open minus three twenty
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: five now minus eight twenty five. I don't really say
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: this often, but like, I feel bad for Darren Elkins.
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: It's actually hard for me to watch his fights nowadays. Again,
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: I don't say that about many people, but you see
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: this stuff about plenty of I mean the Anthony Smith
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: very said knows what's true and what's not.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: But I mean, these guys are getting CT, and.
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: I think he probably already has some kind of CT,
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: and it's only gonna get worse.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: They're in the damage.
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: Like he's put on amazing fights, but he's taken a
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: whole lot of damage at forty two years old. I
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: hope the UFC cuts them even if they do, though
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: he could sign somewhere else it's one way traffic. Even
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: though Yadie pretty much was exposed as a fraud in
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: that last fight against Jordan Levitt, that Dulgarian fight had
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: to ben fixed from what we saw. I mean, I'm
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: not gonna say you're beating up Darren Alkins because obviously
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: that's not true. But you know what I'm saying, Like
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: bottom of the barrel is Darren Alkins nowadays ninety six hundred,
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: though Rebeccy did it last week. I mean, if you
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: get him in that position where you can't move and
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: you keep getting punched in the face and you get
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: a buzzer beater in round one, yeah you're gonna be
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: optimal at ninety six hundred.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: But we say it all the time.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: That's a big boy price tag and you have to
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: do a lot and you need some other things go
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: your way for underdogs. So I think I'm gonna continue
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: not playing as much. With all that being said, though
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: last week Elkins or not. Last week, Rebecy came in
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: at like twenty two percent, so I was like even
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: with the field because he came in lower than I expected.
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: Curious here where you think his ownership will be? And yeah,
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: I assume you're gonna say, Yahde's gonna kill him in
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: round one.
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, Elkins just taking more damage than like anybody,
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: it seems. I mean, he's here for a good time,
• 42:22
  Speaker 5: not a long time at this point, dude, he I
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: don't know what he's gonna look like in ten years
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: if he's still around, but it is scary and at
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: this point, the only edge I would give him would
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: be a possible early wrestling edge. I just don't expect
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: him to be able to eat punches. I don't expect
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: him to look good at forty two years old. I
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: wish he already retired. So ye give me del Vie
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: to win this fight however he wants. But I don't
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: like the ninety six hundred dollars price tag. Even in
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: a fixed fight, he's only scoring one oh one, so
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: I feel like one hundred is a really likely score
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: for him in this one, and I don't think one
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: hundred will cut it at ninety six hundred since he
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: is by far the biggest favorite on the fight.
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, on the card.
• 43:05
  Speaker 5: I think that the ownership will be there. I don't
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: know that it's gonna be high, but I'd say I
• 43:10
  Speaker 5: put him around thirty to start, and then I'll work
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: with the rest of the card and see where it
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: puts me. But give me doviaa to win this fight,
• 43:17
  Speaker 5: probably in the first round, and hopefully it's a quick
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: takedown and the submission so we don't have to see
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: Elkins get punched in the face. But I just I'm
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: not gonna play any Elkins at this point. If he wins,
• 43:28
  Speaker 5: good for him, I'm happy for him. I just won't
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: be winning as well. So for me it's gonna be
• 43:33
  Speaker 5: completely deVie or passed. But my pass is gonna be
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: my favorite player.
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I said with eleven fights, like, I
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: don't hate if you want to play Darren Elkins at
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: his money, and I guess I still wouldn't. If you see,
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: like Sheets, who's gonna play shut out? Sheets always always
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: the man. If he plays one hundred and fifty lineups,
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: he's probably gonna play some Divide or some Elkins. He's
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: fourteen point eight percent to win, And I will say
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: the thing with Elkins, he does push a pace, he
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: does wrestle. In his fourteen percentants to win, thirteen point
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: eight percent are gonna be optimal.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: So when you put it that way, you could do worse.
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: But yeah, it's as as you and I that study
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: fights and watch fights and try and make use some
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: game theory with our own thoughts. It's really hard to
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: click that Elkins name. But again, I mean the books
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: have it up for a reason.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: It's fourteen point four fourteen point eight percent chance to
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: win right now, if you get fourteen per second wins.
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: He's probably gonna score more than ninety points.
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah he will, no, yeah, yeah, I mean he does
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: like he when he wins, he scores.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: It's all hard.
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: It'd probably be Yadier gassing out and Elkins taking over
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: and being a junkyard dog. So I usually don't play
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: one fifty nowadays, even in seventy teams, though maybe I'll
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: get a little bit. Twenty teams are left less. No chance,
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: I'm a I'm clicking Darren Elkins and yeah, I'm gonna
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: be underweight on Yadie as well.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: Two fights left co main events. Man.
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: I was happy to see Billy Cughes name. It's been
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: since twenty twenty four we have him as an underdog.
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: We have minus one sixty seven Diego Ferreira plus one
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: forty seven is Billy Q minus two fifty for this
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: fight to finish fer Ara plus one fifteen inside the
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: distance billy Q plus two fifteen run one props Ferrara
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: plus three twenty five billy Q plus six hundred. I
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: like this fight quite a bit in real life and
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: in DFS. I'll let you take it away. How do
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: you think it goes down?
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah, fun fighting.
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: I definitely worry about both of them being at the
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: end of their career. Ferreira he's forty one years old,
• 45:32
  Speaker 5: but Quaranteo looks like he is getting washed, if not
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: already washed. So I have worries on both sides, but
• 45:40
  Speaker 5: that could also lead to good things for the other side.
• 45:43
  Speaker 5: I think Ferreira is just the more well rounded all
• 45:46
  Speaker 5: around fighter, but he is going to I mean, he's
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: forty one years old, so I just don't expect him
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: to look how he has looked. And Quarantio, the one
• 45:55
  Speaker 5: thing about him is he can bring a pace. I
• 45:57
  Speaker 5: think on the feet he can bring more volume Pereira
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: and win minutes.
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: That way, he could knock out.
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: A forty one year old Ferrera just because he's getting
• 46:05
  Speaker 5: up there in age, and also when he looks to
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: fight on the ground, he is very aggressive, very active,
• 46:11
  Speaker 5: brings the pace on the ground as well. So I
• 46:13
  Speaker 5: think Quarantio is kind of like a golf where but
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: with a better chance of winning, but where if he wins,
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: he probably is scoring more than ten x and he
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: has ninety plus one hundred plus point upside in his
• 46:25
  Speaker 5: wins as well as seventy.
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: Five hundred dollars. You're gonna need that if he gets
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: his hand raised.
• 46:30
  Speaker 5: But if Ferreira is still the same guy at forty
• 46:33
  Speaker 5: one years old, I just don't know that quaranteo I
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: don't even know that he'll be able to eat those
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: shots at that Ferrera was bringing. I mean, he beat
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: the shit out of Rebeccy. There's no way Quarantio is
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: gonna do that. So I just don't know.
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: On this one.
• 46:49
  Speaker 5: I put Quarantio as my preferred play because I do
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: love the pace that he brings. I like that he's
• 46:54
  Speaker 5: only seventy five hundred dollars. I'm looking for underdogs to play.
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: I think I've only talked about too that I really
• 47:00
  Speaker 5: like so far, So he's gonna be the third one
• 47:02
  Speaker 5: that I'm really clicking on and probably getting overweight.
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: Two.
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: I don't love eighty seven hundred dollars for Diego. But
• 47:09
  Speaker 5: I'm also not going to x him out at all.
• 47:11
  Speaker 5: I'm fine being anywhere from like fifteen to thirty five
• 47:16
  Speaker 5: percent on Diego. I think he won't be where I'm
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: starting my lineups, but he's a fine like fifth or
• 47:23
  Speaker 5: sixth click for me in there. And I like other
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: guys other favorites more. But if Quarantino's washed Man Freer,
• 47:31
  Speaker 5: there's a lot of ways he could beat him, and
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: he could finish him on the mat, he could finish
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: him on the feet, So he does have high score potential.
• 47:37
  Speaker 5: I just hate playing guys that are over forty years old.
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't blame you on your last sentence. I
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: like Diego Frere quite a bit. He's probably one of
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: my favorite plays on the slate. When it comes down
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: to ownership, I do think Billy C is going to
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: be one of the chalkier options in the lower tier.
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: I think people see that money lying on Diego, see
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: his price and get away a little bit, and especially
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: Juliana mil two hundred more. And yeah, I mean I
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: saw Diego Farra just three fights ago beat the shit
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: out of Rebeccy. Like you mentioned, wasn't even close, and
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: Rebeccy is absolutely doing terrible things to Billy Q. And
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: when I've seen Billy Q in twenty twenty four, he
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: already looked like he was starting to get washed at
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: thirty seven years old. So even though he's forty one,
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: I think Diego Farra looks better at this point of
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: his career. I think he's probably gonna be lower own
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: than Billy Q. I think he's a good amount of
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: leverage off of billy Q. I think he can win
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: by sub I think he can win by KO. I
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: think he get takedowns, reversals. I like this fight a
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: good amount, like I'm gonna play some Billy Q too,
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: But again, I think he's gonna be higher owned. It's
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: a lot easier to talk yourself into Billy Q than
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: it is Diego Ferreira, and I am talking myself in
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: Diego Ferreira at eighty seven hundred. I'll overspend because I
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: think he has big boy upside in this. I think
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: he's less washed at this point of his career, and
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: I think he finishes Billy Q when it is all
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: said and done. I like this fight quite a bit,
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: though one of my favorites to target on the card
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: as most billy Q fights have been over the years. Alright,
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: obviously a phenomenal fight here in real life DFS big
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: Boy step up for Quill and Sall killed, but he
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: does find himself as the favorites against Mateo scam Rat
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: minus one thirty four, sel killed plus one fourteen is
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: gam rotz come on fight adds open it up minus
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: won seventy five for this fight to finish, Sall killed
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: plus one thirty five inside the distance scam Rock plus
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: two forty Sall killed round one plus four point fifty.
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: Not much has change on the money line since Monday.
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: Not much has changed on the inside of the distance
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: since Monday when where this line opened minus won ten
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: on both sides a straight pick them Sall killed took
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: money he got as low as minus one forty eight,
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: but the line hasn't been moving too much since that
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: initial buy as a pick em. You can see the
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: age difference. Twenty six years old, thirty five years old
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: man seven point two five takedowns five point two two takedowns.
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: I said with eleven five like the only reason not
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: to play it is just pure game theory. Hoping to
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: get a nutshot, a DQ, whatever it may be. I'm
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: just gonna play it and I'll find ways to get different.
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: That's why I'm really happy that twelve fight was added.
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: I'll get different again leaving the six hundred from die
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: Year to Lopez or eighty five hundred, drop that down
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: to Montana and leave eight hundred dollars. I'd rather get
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: different doing stuff like that than fading this mid tier
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: eighty three hundred and seventy nine hundred main event. When
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: it comes down to my pick, I don't even have
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: a strong lean on the pick. I'm going Gamrock because
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: he has the plus money next to him, because it's
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: a big step up, because we've seen him in five
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: round fights, But mainly it's because he's four hundred cheaper.
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: So any soul killed lineup can be Gamrock and eliminate
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: dupes and what I believe to be pretty much a
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: coin flip fight, so I'll go Gamrock. Confidence is not high,
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: but when it comes down to eliminating dupes due to
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: the salary, that is what makes me like him more.
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: Great great fight though, maybe sixty to forty Gamrod if
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: I go through my process, and that's what I came
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: out with I'd feel very good about that. I do
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: not want to have too big of a stand. And
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: if you're looking at only a couple of way chop
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: or it doesn't even whatever it is. If you can
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: live in if you live in a legal state or
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: have a bookie, you are gonna ship. If one of
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: them wins, you can bet the other at slight U
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: plus money or slight uh favored money.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: And it won't break the bank and you can lock
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: up profit.
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: Not something I always do really just if it's a
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: big boy sweat, but you always have that option if
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: you go all in on this fight with it being
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: closely lined, great, great fight. How do you see it going?
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: And yeah, I'll ask you how you see it going?
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: But like the wrestling, Gamrock's gonna wrestle, seal Kill gonna
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: wrestle at all?
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: Do you think he has success? How do you see
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: it going down?
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: Dude?
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: I actually have no idea how the saw killed game
• 51:44
  Speaker 5: plan is going to go. But I'm on the saw
• 51:46
  Speaker 5: killed side.
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: Man. I like this kid a lot.
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: I think he is definitely a future title contender, possibly
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: a future title owner. Gam rat Way more experience great wrestling.
• 51:57
  Speaker 5: I like his pressure in his pace, but he is
• 52:01
  Speaker 5: not great at holding guys down. I definitely give salth
• 52:05
  Speaker 5: Kild the striking edge. He's a damn good wrestler and
• 52:07
  Speaker 5: grappler himself, so I'm not even sure that Gamra has
• 52:11
  Speaker 5: the wrestling edge in this one. So I'm gonna take
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: a stand in this one. Salth Kild is my favorite
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: play on the entire slate. I probably want at least
• 52:19
  Speaker 5: sixty percent South killed, but that's gonna leave me with
• 52:21
  Speaker 5: forty percent Gamera. I'm gonna play with twenty or less.
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna make sure this fight is in every single
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: one of my twenty. If I get to maybe over fifty,
• 52:30
  Speaker 5: then I would be okay, hoping for a nutshot with
• 52:33
  Speaker 5: like one of my lineups. But I'm just gonna be
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: loading up on this fight. There's not even a close
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: second on the card. To me, I think this is
• 52:41
  Speaker 5: just miles above every other fight, and it's right there
• 52:44
  Speaker 5: in the mid range where I just don't see the
• 52:46
  Speaker 5: winner of.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: Not being on the optimal lineup.
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: I think we're gonna get a hundred plus from either guy,
• 52:52
  Speaker 5: but Gamra has to wrestle for three to five rounds
• 52:56
  Speaker 5: for him to win, and I don't know that he's
• 52:58
  Speaker 5: gonna be able to do that against a guy Seal Killed.
• 53:01
  Speaker 5: I was hoping I would get south Killed at plus money.
• 53:04
  Speaker 5: I'm still not against betting him at minus one thirty five.
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: To be honest with you, he is my He's my
• 53:11
  Speaker 5: preferred play, and I think this is a fight that
• 53:12
  Speaker 5: the UFC want him to win as well. So give
• 53:15
  Speaker 5: me South Killed. I cannot wait for this fight. And
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: if he dominates Gamrack, I mean throw him into a
• 53:21
  Speaker 5: title picture real soon.
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't argue that one bit. I think sell
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: Kill's the sexy pick. I'm actually surprised the Lion is
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: as close as it is, and that actually made me
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: like Gamrat a little more than I initially did too.
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: Like seal Kill's definitely the sexy pick. And this one
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: has looked absolutely phenomenal. Scores very well. You can see
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: the numbers on the stone. Five point zero one significant
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: strikes per minute, seven point twenty five takedowns per fifteen.
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: You're just gonna have a phenomenal real life fight, one
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: that should translate for DFS. Even if the winner score
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: ninety ninety three, which I think would be pretty bad.
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: They're eighty three hundred and seventy nine hundred ninety three
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: can be a plenty on this twelve fight card, which
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: again makes it very off to fade even if ninety
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: three percent of the field play it. If I have
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: one hundred, I'll just look at it seven percent paying
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: the rake, and if they aren't on the optimal, it's
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: just not my day when it's all said, and I'd
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: be good moving on to next week. So yeah, one
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: hundred percent probably for me in this one gammer at
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: my preferred play, mainly because he's four hundred less. Sell
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: killed Big Marley's preferred play for all the reasons he
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: did mention.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: Man, I'm pumped.
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: I'm pumped for this now that we have twelve fights.
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: It is a night and day change. Then I originally
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: thought again, if you head over to shipnation dot com,
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: multiple different ways to get in for the month, usually
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: ninety nine dollars, now just forty nine dollars for your
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: first month. Sabersim and the Discord are included. PGA, MLB,
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: MMA and NASCAR all going on. Next thing you know,
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: NFL is as well. If you go bottom left, join
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: the Nation five days for nineteen dollars also include SABERSIM
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: also includes Discord single sport. If you're displaying in the
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: MMA streets, you can get in for twenty nine dollars
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: for our content only twenty dollars more for sabers SIM.
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: And again, as you can see Little Neck in here,
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: we do not have preseason football offerings. With that being said,
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: if you do join either the five days for nineteen
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: dollars or the monthly package, you will get access to
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: the Discord that includes NFL and people like Little Neck
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: will be talking preseason football in there and do a phenomenal,
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: phenomenal job to help you keep up with the news
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: MLB's going on. Rio is absolutely been crushing it. We
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: do have an NFL Bestball Chat in Discord as well.
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: If you ever have any questions you want to ask
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: Big Marley or myself, you can do that too.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: I want your final thoughts.
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: Big Marley, and then I'm curious, it's not about MMA,
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: but how many Best Ball drafts you have done so far.
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: I was about to say, I gotta go do at
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: least one draft before I pass out. I think I
• 55:49
  Speaker 5: need to do almost for a day to max out
• 55:53
  Speaker 5: everything before the season starts. I've got one hundred and
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: fifteen done on DraftKings. I want to say one hundred
• 55:59
  Speaker 5: and two on underdog, and I think I just hit
• 56:03
  Speaker 5: one hundred on drafters and almost all of them are
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: fast draft too.
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: So it's a grind, man, it's a grind.
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: But my my exposures are looking nice, so I'm I'm
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: hoping the injuries stay away from me and this is
• 56:17
  Speaker 5: my year. But I'm looking forward to me and I
• 56:20
  Speaker 5: love drafting best ball. It's been a rough last couple
• 56:23
  Speaker 5: of years, man, but this is my year.
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: Hopefully we'll see. But good luck to you title, good
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: You're a beast, and yeah, I mean you said the
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: rough the last couple of years. You're playing tournaments eighteen
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: nineteen percent. Almost all the money is in week seventeen.
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: Even then you need to show out there. There's so
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: much variance. I already got mine done a couple of
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: years back, so I know I'm gonna lose money every
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: single year for the rest. Okay, I'll still be in
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: the green. It only takes one. You gotta get lucky
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: when you win. How much do you win? Got lucky
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: over here? I'm hoping it's Big Marley's year. And yeah,
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: you're putting yourself. You gotta enter the contest to have
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: a chance. And you sure are grinding and all fast drafts.
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: That is very impressive. I'm an all slow draft kind
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: of guy pretty much, so it could not be any
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: more opposite. I will be cheering for you after I
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: cheer for myself, of course. But we appreciate everyone hanging out.
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: Hit that like, hit that, subscribe on the way out,
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: join the nation, get in the discord. If you do,
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: that's gonna do it for us. For bing Marley, I'm
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: titled town. Good luck, be safe, bested.
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: And hands stilled fans and fans
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: Still