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The US accuses Canada of meddling in midterm elections · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: The relationship between Canada and the U.S. has been worsening
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  Speaker 1: recently over their trade disputes, but now the row has
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  Speaker 1: taken a more political turn. In the last few weeks, U.S.
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  Speaker 1: officials have been talking about what they describe as potential
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  Speaker 1: Canadian interference ahead of next month's midterm elections. The U.S.
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  Speaker 1: Embassy in Ottawa has released a list of actions and
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  Speaker 1: comments from Canadian politicians that it says show attempts to
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  Speaker 1: to influence American politics. It points to retaliatory tariffs, meetings
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  Speaker 1: with US politicians, and an advertising campaign in Ontario. Among
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  Speaker 1: the senior figures named is Ontario Premier Doug Ford. This
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  Speaker 1: is how he responded to the allegations.
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  Speaker 2: I have no interest at all interfering in American elections.
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  Speaker 2: I am a strong believer. I spent 20 years of
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  Speaker 2: my life down in the US. I love the American people.
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  Speaker 2: We're going to focus on what we can do here
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  Speaker 2: in Ontario and in Canada to make sure we protect
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  Speaker 2: our economy, protect the people and protect communities. That's what
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  Speaker 2: we're going to focus on. And the people of the
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  Speaker 2: United States will make that determination in the midterms.
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  Speaker 1: Prime Minister Mark Carney also rejected the embassy's claims, saying
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  Speaker 1: Canada was responding to measures from the U.S. He said
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  Speaker 1: the United States initiated a series of trade actions. We've
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  Speaker 1: responded to concerns. those to protect Canadian jobs, to protect
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  Speaker 1: Canadian companies and develop our economy. Stephanie Carvin is an
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  Speaker 1: Associate Professor of International Relations at the Norman Paterson School
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  Speaker 1: of International Affairs at Carleton University. Stephanie, it's good to
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  Speaker 1: have you with us.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you so much for having me on to discuss
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  Speaker 3: this extremely bizarre story.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, bizarre indeed. I mean, this is unusual. Looking at
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  Speaker 1: the allegation, the U.S. embassy raises several complaints relating to
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  Speaker 1: Canadian government officials having meetings, commenting on local U.S. politics,
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  Speaker 1: I guess is the issue here. We say it's unusual,
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  Speaker 1: but does this constitute interference?
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  Speaker 3: If we're talking about the Canadian actions, I would say no.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, they're talking about times when ministers are commenting
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  Speaker 3: in open press stories about very pressing concerns that we
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  Speaker 3: have here in Canada with regards to the trade discussions
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  Speaker 3: that are happening or sometimes not happening. And, you know,
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  Speaker 3: concerns that also affect Americans as well. And, you know,
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  Speaker 3: this is very much most of the allegations, I think,
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  Speaker 3: are just bizarre in the sense that, you know, would
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  Speaker 3: you expect a minister who was talking to people in
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  Speaker 3: the United States who are very much involved in some
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  Speaker 3: of these trade issues to be some kind of interference?
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  Speaker 3: I mean, we can't. We can't have discussions without having discussions,
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  Speaker 3: and those discussions are not interference. Now, you showed a
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  Speaker 3: clip of Ontario Premier Doug Ford. The complaint there and
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  Speaker 3: the thing that really made Trump mad was that last
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  Speaker 3: year he ran a campaign highlighting clips of former President
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  Speaker 3: Ronald Reagan, which effectively said that tariffs were a bad idea,
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  Speaker 3: tariffs hurt the American people. And in some ways, you know,
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  Speaker 3: kind of really throwing it in Trump's face. And did
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  Speaker 3: that constitute interference? Well, certainly it was a very persuasive
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  Speaker 3: attempt at trying to show Americans just exactly where Canadians stand.
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  Speaker 3: And I could maybe see some complaints with that. But
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  Speaker 3: for the most part, I think most Canadians saw this
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  Speaker 3: list yesterday. And just, you know, we may have all
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  Speaker 3: have a headache from how hard we rolled our eyes
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  Speaker 3: at some of the claims that were in fact being made.
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  Speaker 1: I suppose the timing is also what's sensitive because you've
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  Speaker 1: got the midterms coming up. But I suppose because of
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  Speaker 1: the sensitivity of US politics, because of the polarisation there,
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  Speaker 1: maybe Canadian officials should be a bit more cautious about
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  Speaker 1: how they engage.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah. And I think to a certain extent, we saw
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  Speaker 3: a news story break today in Canada. I believe it
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  Speaker 3: was Bloomberg that first reported it, which basically stated that
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  Speaker 3: even before this list came out, that there were orders
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  Speaker 3: from the Canadian government to not for their diplomats not
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  Speaker 3: to be seen at any public event with any candidate
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  Speaker 3: whatsoever and to really just avoid any attempt at trying
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  Speaker 3: to influence them. the election, the midterms in the United States.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, the reality is, and this is slightly off topic,
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  Speaker 3: but I don't think most Canadians feel that the midterm
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  Speaker 3: elections will have any immediate impact on the current trade
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  Speaker 3: battles that are happening between our two countries. I think
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  Speaker 3: that's a separate story. But there is a real concern
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  Speaker 3: about being seen with one side or the other. And
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  Speaker 3: so even before this, we'll call it the airing of
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  Speaker 3: the grievances came out yesterday, there were a lot of
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  Speaker 3: concerns that, you know, we don't want to be seen as,
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  Speaker 3: you know, interfering in any way.
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  Speaker 1: We've heard from, as I mentioned, those clips there from
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  Speaker 1: the Prime Minister and the Ontario Premier arguing that they're
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  Speaker 1: responding to tariffs and protecting Canadian jobs. Is that a
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  Speaker 1: legitimate response?
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  Speaker 3: I think so. I don't know how we make these
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  Speaker 3: arguments without speaking to the American people.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 3: And explaining our position, you know, America, you know, even
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  Speaker 3: though Canada signed a trade agreement with, you know, President
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  Speaker 3: Trump in his first term, he now describes it as
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  Speaker 3: the worst deal ever made, you know, which is which
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  Speaker 3: is odd. And I think, you know, diplomacy is discussion
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  Speaker 3: and it's not just with officials. But I think there's
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  Speaker 3: also a bit of a backstory here that needs to
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  Speaker 3: be addressed as well, which is that in Canada recently,
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  Speaker 3: there has been a lot of concern about American foreign
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  Speaker 3: interference in a number of democratic processes that we've been having. So,
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  Speaker 3: for example, I don't know if it's been covered on
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  Speaker 3: this network, but there was a referendum held in Alberta,
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  Speaker 3: which would have discussed effectively whether that province should have
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  Speaker 3: some kind of vote on whether or not to become
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  Speaker 3: an independent province. And we do know that State Department
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  Speaker 3: officials met with some of the members of that independence movement. Now,
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  Speaker 3: I think to a certain extent, we have to remember,
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  Speaker 3: it is the job of diplomats to speak to all
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  Speaker 3: sides of in a campaign. But where I think Canadians
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  Speaker 3: have been concerned is that when you have a president
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  Speaker 3: who has actively talked about making Canada the 51st state,
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  Speaker 3: was there something going on there besides just information gathering?
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  Speaker 3: Were certain promises made? Was certain support given? And I
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  Speaker 3: think that's the suspicion, even though I don't know if
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  Speaker 3: any evidence of that has ever really publicly come to light.
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  Speaker 3: There was a second story recently in the last month
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  Speaker 3: or so that American officials may have been trying to
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  Speaker 3: meet with the Parti Québécois, which is the separatist movement
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  Speaker 3: in Quebec. And they have now taken government. So they have,
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  Speaker 3: you know, both the Parti Québécois and the State Department denied,
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  Speaker 3: even though there does seem to have been some record
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  Speaker 3: of a planned meeting that never took place. So I
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  Speaker 3: think Canadians, you know, there's been a lot of media
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  Speaker 3: coverage as to whether or not the American administration under
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  Speaker 3: Trump has been trying to interfere in our politics. So,
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  Speaker 3: you know, I hate to call it projection, but certainly
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  Speaker 3: I think this list has come out at a time
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  Speaker 3: when that discussion about U.S. interference has been very much
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  Speaker 3: on the minds of Canadians.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting. I mean, as we hear a lot from
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  Speaker 1: President Trump and even his predecessors a lot about what's
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  Speaker 1: happening in foreign politics and other elections. So I guess
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  Speaker 1: you would say, would you say there's a double standard there?
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  Speaker 3: To a certain extent, I mean, like for, you know,
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  Speaker 3: the concerns that have been expressed about American involvement in Canada, again,
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  Speaker 3: if true, is that these actions are more or less clandestine,
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  Speaker 3: that there's some concern about promoting the breakup of Canada,
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  Speaker 3: which would make it a lot easier for the United
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  Speaker 3: States to um have influence over canada even if quite
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  Speaker 3: frankly we were just merely um you know in the
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  Speaker 3: throes of discussing um you know the potential breakup of
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  Speaker 3: the country that's going to put canada in a much
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  Speaker 3: weaker position as vis-a-vis the united states certainly within the
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  Speaker 3: trump administration's interest so um yes i do feel that
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  Speaker 3: um this document which came out yesterday which i mean
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  Speaker 3: quite frankly i don't think anyone in canada took particularly
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  Speaker 3: seriously i'm sure there's there's a few but But the
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  Speaker 3: fact that, you know, we do think that there is
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  Speaker 3: this attempt to perhaps I know you are, but what
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  Speaker 3: am I method of foreign policy happening within this wider
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  Speaker 3: context of which definitely seems to be degrading tensions between
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  Speaker 3: or degrading relations between the two countries.
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  Speaker 1: What's your reading into the fact that this has come
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  Speaker 1: from the U.S. embassy and not necessarily from Washington directly?
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  Speaker 3: Well, Pete Hoekstra has been extremely critical of the Canadian government,
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  Speaker 3: certainly was critical of Justin Trudeau, our former prime minister,
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  Speaker 3: and has been critical of Carney. Yes, the U.S. ambassador.
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  Speaker 3: And he is someone who is very outspoken about, you know,
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  Speaker 3: seeing Canada as basically backstabbing the United States, as having
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  Speaker 3: taken advantage of the United States. He never really hesitates
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  Speaker 3: to make his views known and his views are very
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  Speaker 3: much aligned with the president. So I think when we
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  Speaker 3: see a memo like that go out, yes, it didn't
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  Speaker 3: come from the Trump administration, but there is no doubt
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  Speaker 3: in my mind it comes from an ambassador who is
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  Speaker 3: very much aligned with the views of Trump, which of
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  Speaker 3: course is natural for an paid attention to what the
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  Speaker 3: headline was, that it was the fact that it came
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  Speaker 3: from the U.S. embassy versus the fact that it came
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  Speaker 3: from the State Department versus the fact that it came
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  Speaker 3: from the president's mouth. We all kind of see it
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  Speaker 3: as coming from one very loud voice.
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  Speaker 1: All right. If the midterms turn out bad for the
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  Speaker 1: Trump administration, for the Republican Party, do you think Canada
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  Speaker 1: could be made a scapegoat? Do you think this is
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  Speaker 1: sort of laying the groundwork for that?
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  Speaker 3: That is interesting. And to be honest, it hadn't quite
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  Speaker 3: occurred to me yet, but that would make sense. We do,
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  Speaker 3: you know, I think a lot of individuals, I think
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  Speaker 3: I saw a survey today that something's like seven out
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  Speaker 3: of 10 Americans themselves believe that Trump will not accept
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  Speaker 3: the results of the midterm election. And I think there
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  Speaker 3: will be a lot of look. There'll be a lot
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  Speaker 3: of effort to to look and point at things for blame.
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  Speaker 3: We've seen this before. In fact, in the 2020 elections,
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  Speaker 3: there was a lot of or like even during the
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  Speaker 3: first Trump administration, there was a lot of concern about
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  Speaker 3: Dominion Election Systems, which was a vote tabulation software company.
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  Speaker 3: And that's Canadian, right? And so there was some aspersions
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  Speaker 3: on that particular company. They actually ended up taking, I believe,
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  Speaker 3: Fox News to court and sued them for several hundred
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  Speaker 3: million dollars for all the claims that they had made.
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  Speaker 3: So this wouldn't exactly be the first time that a
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  Speaker 3: Canadian entity had been held responsible for a Trump administration loss.
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  Speaker 3: And I wouldn't be surprised if the claims about this
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  Speaker 3: were being made. But You know, I personally believe that
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  Speaker 3: after the results of the midterm elections, if they go
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  Speaker 3: as the polls are suggesting and, you know, polls don't vote.
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  Speaker 3: So I'll just put a note of caution there. But
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  Speaker 3: I think one of the things that we need to
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  Speaker 3: keep in mind is that Americans are going to be
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  Speaker 3: so focused on their own internal battles for the next
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  Speaker 3: few months that Canada may also very much just fall
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  Speaker 3: to the wayside. Yeah. That would be an interesting development.
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  Speaker 3: We are, you know, your viewers should be aware that
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  Speaker 3: there is a second tariff package that will be targeting
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  Speaker 3: the Canadian auto industry in January. I believe something that
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  Speaker 3: will raise the tariffs on Canadian auto parts to something
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  Speaker 3: like 50%, which is quite frankly going to cripple the
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  Speaker 3: North American auto industry. So, yeah. I imagine we're still
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  Speaker 3: going to be taking part in the debate somehow, but
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  Speaker 3: it also wouldn't surprise me if there's just so much
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  Speaker 3: attention on the aftermath of the election that, you know,
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  Speaker 3: the United States kind of forgets that we exist for
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  Speaker 3: a little while, which is actually the normal state of affairs.
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  Speaker 1: Right. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has spoken about this relationship
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  Speaker 1: between the US and Canada, basically saying that it's got
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  Speaker 1: to a point where it's irreparable, the damage is permanent.
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  Speaker 1: Do you see it that way at the moment?
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  Speaker 3: So right now, I think there's two camps, right? You
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  Speaker 3: have the kind of Doug Ford view that there's irreparable damage,
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  Speaker 3: that we need to start trading more with the EU,
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  Speaker 3: with Indo-Pacific partners, with really anyone. Canadian trade right now
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  Speaker 3: is somewhere between 65% and 70% all going to the
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  Speaker 3: United States. So you can see our dependency. But that's
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  Speaker 3: actually down something like 10% than it was two years ago.
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  Speaker 3: So you can see the efforts already being made. On
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  Speaker 3: the other hand, you have a very quiet but very
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  Speaker 3: firm business community here in Canada, which really does believe
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  Speaker 3: that things can go back to normal, that there can
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  Speaker 3: be a deal even with the Trump administration. And they
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  Speaker 3: are putting a lot of pressure on the Carney government
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  Speaker 3: to get just there. So I think in some ways,
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  Speaker 3: even though the what we call the elbows up crowd
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  Speaker 3: is is very much the loud and proud and people
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  Speaker 3: being very disappointed in Trump. you know, a country that
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  Speaker 3: has been something like a big brother to us. That
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  Speaker 3: is kind of the dominant discourse. There is a number
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  Speaker 3: of very powerful, you know, individuals in the business community
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  Speaker 3: that are trying to push forward. So I guess I
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  Speaker 3: kind of land somewhere in between. We are geographically connected
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  Speaker 3: to the United States. We will have to work out
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  Speaker 3: some kind of arrangement. But I think what we have
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  Speaker 3: to understand is that the certainties upon which Canada rested
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  Speaker 3: for the past, you know, 70 years are no longer
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  Speaker 3: going to be there. That the United States has learned
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  Speaker 3: to weaponize its dominance over other countries and that other
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  Speaker 3: administrations that come in, even if it's a democratic one,
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  Speaker 3: will probably be willing to use both tariffs and trade
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  Speaker 3: leverage over us. And really the new stability is going
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  Speaker 3: to be instability.
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  Speaker 1: Stephanie Carvin, thank you very much for your thoughts on
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  Speaker 1: this story.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: And thank you for watching. I am Tommy on Lighting
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  Speaker 1: More in Berlin.