Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Making Big Decisions In NFL Week 16

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Making Big Decisions In NFL Week 16 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman and I am going to be
0:16
Speaker 1: joined by my compadre, my BFF, my very own professional
0:24
Speaker 1: better Simon Andrew Simon. I have a very simple question
0:29
Speaker 1: for you. Are you ready? Yes? Are you there in
0:34
Speaker 1: the head? No, don't forget. This is an audio medium,
0:37
Speaker 1: so people need to hear you respond. That's true. We
0:42
Speaker 1: need to change it up this week. Is it possible
0:44
Speaker 1: to reach peak football? To reach peak football? And by
0:48
Speaker 1: that I mean, you know, on Monday night I texted
0:51
Speaker 1: you and I said I could not even watch I
0:54
Speaker 1: can't watch the Steelers Bengals game. Instead, um, I watched
0:58
Speaker 1: the show Gets Shorty with my wife with Stacy, the
1:01
Speaker 1: TV series starring CRUs o'down. You know, he's that that
1:05
Speaker 1: very charming Irish fellow who was the cop in Bride's Maids.
1:09
Speaker 1: I love Elmore Leonard. He's one of my favorite writers.
1:11
Speaker 1: It's based on his book, which they also turned it
1:13
Speaker 1: into a movie with John Travolta, which was amazing. But like,
1:16
Speaker 1: I couldn't watch football on Monday. I just had it,
1:19
Speaker 1: Like I I was almost sick of it. And like
1:22
Speaker 1: even on Sunday night. Sunday night, we needed the Giants
1:27
Speaker 1: for our lungs. I went to bed in the third
1:30
Speaker 1: quarter like before, like before the game was out of reach.
1:33
Speaker 1: I went to bed earlier in the day for the
1:36
Speaker 1: late games. In the middle of the lake games, I
1:38
Speaker 1: took the dog for a walk in the snow, and
1:42
Speaker 1: then I wrote the Peloton and like, I just couldn't
1:44
Speaker 1: even watch football anymore. I'm bursting at the moment. For Melbourne,
1:51
Speaker 1: what happened. That's why you're not a pro chat that
1:53
Speaker 1: was just another Sunday for your guy signing. But for Chad,
1:56
Speaker 1: that was just the end of the world kind of
1:58
Speaker 1: sunday for football. That's hilariously just beat you down. But
2:01
Speaker 1: it wasn't like I honestly feel like and I've look,
2:04
Speaker 1: I've been doing this a long time, right, Like I've
2:06
Speaker 1: been a media professional covering like the NFL, either as
2:12
Speaker 1: a reporter or a writer or an editor or having
2:15
Speaker 1: general oversight over various sized media entities, and U NFL
2:22
Speaker 1: is always the only thing that matters, so of course
2:23
Speaker 1: I have to pay attention to it. And like, like,
2:28
Speaker 1: I've never had a feeling where I was just like
2:30
Speaker 1: burnt out. Yeah, now we're the three cs here, You're
2:35
Speaker 1: you're cursed. I'm a coward. And man Mitchell was a contortionist.
2:41
Speaker 1: He's a flexible guy. Uh, it was on like right
2:45
Speaker 1: there with you. Like then I woke up Sunday morning.
2:48
Speaker 1: We're seriously it's crazy down. We're just so good on
2:50
Speaker 1: these Tuesday shows, and then we were just complete buffoons
2:53
Speaker 1: come the weekend. It's just a pressure like you for us,
2:56
Speaker 1: everyone else is feeling the pressure. Like I texted you,
2:59
Speaker 1: the top three eyes all went one and four. So
3:01
Speaker 1: even though we went to and three last week, we're
3:04
Speaker 1: still if we just somehow win four or five, we
3:07
Speaker 1: go four or five and oh we'll be We're gonna
3:12
Speaker 1: get We're gonna get to that part. I don't want
3:14
Speaker 1: to pre empt like our our sort of round up,
3:16
Speaker 1: but it is. It is a very good lesson, right
3:18
Speaker 1: because we were so honored on Tuesday and then like
3:23
Speaker 1: Sunday morning, there were two games that you sent me
3:26
Speaker 1: that we were on complete opposite sides of on Tuesday. Um,
3:31
Speaker 1: we ended up going with we liked Uh, you sent
3:35
Speaker 1: me Seattle, and I'm like, dude, Seattle. Liking Seattle was
3:39
Speaker 1: never part of the equation. It was either Washington or nothing,
3:42
Speaker 1: just liking Seattle was never on. It was never on
3:46
Speaker 1: the menu. And then New England, and like I had
3:49
Speaker 1: completely convinced you on Tuesday that New England was the
3:52
Speaker 1: wrong side, and here's what happened. By Sunday morning, I
3:58
Speaker 1: had heard so many people saying they were on New
4:00
Speaker 1: England and it being like the right side that I
4:02
Speaker 1: had flipped. And the game played exactly the way I
4:06
Speaker 1: felt like you would play and not really because that's
4:10
Speaker 1: literally totally did It was sixth nothing and then Gilmore
4:13
Speaker 1: towards a c L, like the defensive player of the
4:16
Speaker 1: year who shuts down half a field towards a c L.
4:19
Speaker 1: Miami scored three touchdowns. They scored a touchdown every possession
4:22
Speaker 1: from that point on. So yeah, we were we were
4:25
Speaker 1: dead on Tuesday. We both said this is a sharp trap.
4:28
Speaker 1: They're they're sucking us in on this number with the
4:30
Speaker 1: New England, and we were right. It was Miami was
4:33
Speaker 1: the right side. So it was even more painful for
4:36
Speaker 1: me just because, like like what I'm saying that Sunday morning,
4:39
Speaker 1: I literally had the Ravens in for us, and I
4:41
Speaker 1: had the Jets in and the Ravens were minus fourteen.
4:46
Speaker 1: I take in the contest, so I said, this name,
4:49
Speaker 1: this number is a minus twelve and a half. Chad's
4:50
Speaker 1: gonna hate this number. So I took that one out.
4:53
Speaker 1: The Jets was plus sixteen and it had gone up
4:56
Speaker 1: to seventeen and a half by that point. In Sunday morning,
4:59
Speaker 1: I go, Chad's gonna hate this do there's no value
5:01
Speaker 1: in the Jets even though that Jets game. Like I
5:06
Speaker 1: told you, I give out the big bets. So this
5:08
Speaker 1: this year, I was two on one coming into this
5:09
Speaker 1: weekend on my big bets, and the Jets just jumped
5:13
Speaker 1: off the page. Where that was just like I tweeted out,
5:17
Speaker 1: ninety seven percent of the money was bet on the rams.
5:23
Speaker 1: It was just the classic It makes honestly the Sony Times.
5:26
Speaker 1: I told you these games making you think the NFL's fixed.
5:29
Speaker 1: That was one of them. I said, in the world,
5:32
Speaker 1: is this number gonna come? And because if it's if
5:34
Speaker 1: it's of the money or on the rams, that's like
5:38
Speaker 1: a percent of the money, and teasers a dent of them.
5:41
Speaker 1: The money line parlays are all on the rams. This
5:44
Speaker 1: is just lined up where that was one of my
5:47
Speaker 1: bigger bets and even I cowered out putting that in
5:50
Speaker 1: our competition, Like I'm embarrassed by Like that was a
5:52
Speaker 1: coward not to I don't know what is going on
5:54
Speaker 1: with us signing we're afraid to fight, staying up this
6:01
Speaker 1: place of honor. God damn we We started with with
6:07
Speaker 1: the Broncos, which we loved, even though we had promised
6:09
Speaker 1: ourselves we'd never bet the Broncos again. We started out
6:13
Speaker 1: betting the Broncos A plus six of the money was
6:16
Speaker 1: coming on the bills. We were convinced, like go against
6:18
Speaker 1: the public where they when they're betting on the road.
6:21
Speaker 1: Favorite didn't didn't hit. Then we were so depressed we
6:25
Speaker 1: didn't play the Panthers even though like of course loved
6:28
Speaker 1: it and like we would have won that game. Then
6:32
Speaker 1: we ended up going with the Cowboys, which was the
6:34
Speaker 1: exact right style. Loved it. No debate. Uh. We went
6:37
Speaker 1: with Arizona with UM switched switched Atlanta out to which
6:42
Speaker 1: we had in Atlanta all week plus six. I mean
6:45
Speaker 1: that was a lucky cover, but we still we were
6:47
Speaker 1: on that right side. We had Atlanta and we ended
6:49
Speaker 1: up going with UM. We had UH Dallas and we
6:54
Speaker 1: had Arizona. Arizona like that was just gut ranching. So
7:01
Speaker 1: we're two and two going into the night game with
7:06
Speaker 1: the Giants, and look they had it. I mean that
7:09
Speaker 1: they had three red zone three red zone trips and
7:15
Speaker 1: and just came away with three points. And the first
7:17
Speaker 1: Yeah that as soon as that punter of throw that ball,
7:20
Speaker 1: I go up meat Chad's bets dead in the first quarter.
7:23
Speaker 1: That was the maker, big play. Like that's some momenting
7:26
Speaker 1: flipping game, uh like play right there, and that just
7:29
Speaker 1: completely Cleveland, just steam rolling after that place. So yeah,
7:32
Speaker 1: that was it was a tough weekend. But like we
7:34
Speaker 1: just talked about somehow, everyone else is feeling the pressure too,
7:38
Speaker 1: and people are taking dump pis. Like a lot of
7:40
Speaker 1: guys in this pick contest, they had Pittsburgh like they
7:44
Speaker 1: took a road team getting over eight percent of the money.
7:46
Speaker 1: So you know, these guys here they can they can
7:49
Speaker 1: keep feeling this pressure and hopefully we can just bounce
7:51
Speaker 1: back here. Because once again this is a great slate.
7:54
Speaker 1: Let's to coming week. Here's what I do appreciate it.
7:56
Speaker 1: Like Sunday morning, we agree simply debated the Seahawks and
8:01
Speaker 1: the Giants. And because you're a class act and you
8:06
Speaker 1: do this out of the goodness of your heart, and
8:07
Speaker 1: you want to make people better, and you're you, you
8:10
Speaker 1: genuinely want us to win. I think you want us
8:12
Speaker 1: to win more for me than you want to win
8:14
Speaker 1: for yourself. And so, uh, you let me play with you.
8:18
Speaker 1: And like I wanted, you wanted the Seahawks, I wanted
8:21
Speaker 1: the Giants. I went out, I wrote, I wrote to you,
8:25
Speaker 1: I own it. It's on me, give me the ball.
8:29
Speaker 1: I'm not afraid of the decision. I mean, Seattle didn't
8:34
Speaker 1: cover either, and so that ended up being okay. But
8:36
Speaker 1: if they had covered and the Giants did not, like
8:39
Speaker 1: I would have been gut just yeah, I still still
8:43
Speaker 1: want to gave you anything, though, because it was the
8:45
Speaker 1: exact same place last while I like Cincinnati last like,
8:48
Speaker 1: it was same reason why we like the Giants. There
8:49
Speaker 1: are home teams getting no money. Everyone left. The Giants
8:53
Speaker 1: are dead. They left the Cincinnati for dead. Unfortunately we're
8:56
Speaker 1: on the wrong side of the Giants. For the Cincinnati
8:58
Speaker 1: was the exact way I thought that Giant game was
9:00
Speaker 1: gonna play out, just the home team, that things hadn't
9:03
Speaker 1: gone right for that things were going to go right
9:04
Speaker 1: for them in that situation, and it just didn't work out.
9:07
Speaker 1: So yeah, I didn't beatch up about the Giants, but
9:09
Speaker 1: because I was right there with it, it's like, that's
9:11
Speaker 1: that's a that was a smart game, a smart number.
9:13
Speaker 1: We looked like idiots on it. But then the next
9:15
Speaker 1: day all the people call us idiots were the same
9:17
Speaker 1: people taking Pittsburgh. So it's like, you know, if we
9:20
Speaker 1: bet these homes, you bet these home dogs, you take
9:22
Speaker 1: these money lines on these big dogs, it doesn't matter
9:25
Speaker 1: if you only hit it once out of every four
9:27
Speaker 1: or five. The values just there on these teams were
9:30
Speaker 1: like that. I saw Darren twet down. I hate when
9:33
Speaker 1: people tweet these things because it makes all of us
9:35
Speaker 1: hate ourselves for not doing it. But like a thousand
9:38
Speaker 1: dollar wager on the money line of the Jets and
9:40
Speaker 1: the Bengals together would pay d k. It's like, of course,
9:44
Speaker 1: but who's gonna bet that next hundred twenty times? You know?
9:47
Speaker 1: So that was just insane back to back days, that
9:51
Speaker 1: that that happened, that whole situation. I do appreciate that
9:55
Speaker 1: after I texted you last night that I cannot watch
9:58
Speaker 1: football anymore, you responded, like with the most positive, upbeat message.
10:04
Speaker 1: If we go five and oh, like you said, and
10:06
Speaker 1: everyone ships the bed like this week, we can still
10:09
Speaker 1: finish in the top twenty. My response to you, do
10:12
Speaker 1: you remember my response to you? It was something about
10:15
Speaker 1: a foxhol right. I said, you are great in a foxhole,
10:19
Speaker 1: like you just need when you're down, you need people
10:22
Speaker 1: with a good attitude who can tell you like it
10:25
Speaker 1: doesn't matter that there are snipers on every single hill,
10:31
Speaker 1: We're going to find a way. Ah yeah, buddy, It's
10:33
Speaker 1: it's the classics saying we might have lost the battle,
10:36
Speaker 1: but we didn't lose the work. We're still fighting here.
10:38
Speaker 1: So that's if you're ever trying to get in this lifestyle,
10:41
Speaker 1: like you want to be a pro. Like I'm not
10:44
Speaker 1: gonna lie. I I won that big bend the Jets,
10:48
Speaker 1: But I cried on Sunday when I put on Twitter
10:52
Speaker 1: and my Survivor pool if I should take the forty
10:55
Speaker 1: nine years with the Bucks or should I do the
10:58
Speaker 1: Bucks with the Bears? And and I joke all the
11:01
Speaker 1: time to fade the public, and I should have I
11:03
Speaker 1: should have listened to myself, but like I wanted to
11:06
Speaker 1: win it with the fans, and I was like, all,
11:08
Speaker 1: I'll do the Bucks in the forty niners and like
11:12
Speaker 1: that's a it was a high six figure loss from me.
11:14
Speaker 1: So I would have won the contest outright, yeah, because
11:18
Speaker 1: no one else had taken the Bear. So if I
11:19
Speaker 1: had done the Bears Bucks Comba, oh god, I would
11:23
Speaker 1: have so much money right now. So I like, I
11:26
Speaker 1: was just like, like you know, you said you couldn't
11:27
Speaker 1: be watched foot point where I literally was like melting
11:29
Speaker 1: into my couch. I I like literally felt like someone
11:32
Speaker 1: had just dumped lava on top of me. I was
11:33
Speaker 1: dying because it was so much money there for the taking. Because,
11:38
Speaker 1: like I said before, we haven't I want to chop
11:40
Speaker 1: the pot with everyone, but we have. We have these
11:42
Speaker 1: two guys who have been real stingy about it, but
11:44
Speaker 1: luckily one of them got knocked out, so we only
11:45
Speaker 1: have one guy left who doesn't want to chop it
11:48
Speaker 1: um for my survivor pool. But like, yeah, high six figures,
11:52
Speaker 1: big money, Like I would have won on that survival
11:54
Speaker 1: pool if I had just taken the Bear. So it
11:57
Speaker 1: was if that if that Jets game hadn't covered, I
12:00
Speaker 1: wouldn't be here right I literally, I'm with you. I
12:02
Speaker 1: would have just been done for the season because that
12:04
Speaker 1: would have been too much money lost and one day
12:06
Speaker 1: if your boy to recover from. But luckily the Jets
12:09
Speaker 1: came through. So I'm still standing. I'm still fighting, and
12:11
Speaker 1: we have one more week. We have one more week.
12:14
Speaker 1: Remember reminder, Simon Hunter is a professional better You have
12:18
Speaker 1: joined us every single week of the pod and we
12:21
Speaker 1: enter the Draft Kings Pro Football pick Um National Championship.
12:25
Speaker 1: Every week we put in five picks. This is it, folks.
12:27
Speaker 1: It ends in week sixteen. These are the last five picks.
12:30
Speaker 1: The POD's going to continue. I don't want people to
12:32
Speaker 1: think that pad is not going to continue. We're gonna
12:34
Speaker 1: keep doing the picks. We're gonna keep going through the
12:37
Speaker 1: end of the season. We're gonna keep going through the class.
12:39
Speaker 1: We're gonna go through the Super Bowl. It doesn't end,
12:41
Speaker 1: but this is our last chance to win some money
12:43
Speaker 1: in the Draft Kings Pro Football pick Um National Championship.
12:47
Speaker 1: And don't forget. From now through the end of the
12:49
Speaker 1: season through the Super Bowl, we are giving a lucky
12:52
Speaker 1: listener one dollars for every game we win each week,
12:56
Speaker 1: and we are giving the equal amount to the charity
12:58
Speaker 1: of the winner's choice to be eligible. Go review the podcast.
13:02
Speaker 1: This week's phrase that pays. Simon says, own your decisions,
13:11
Speaker 1: Own your decisions. Simon says, own your decisions. If Matt
13:14
Speaker 1: Mitchell randomly chooses it, you will win the money. Everything
13:17
Speaker 1: we're discussing, every pick we make. It's all in the
13:19
Speaker 1: Action Network Gap downloaded. It's free, it's award winning. Go
13:23
Speaker 1: get it. Follow at Simon Hunter follow me. That's where
13:26
Speaker 1: you can see all of the picks that we end
13:28
Speaker 1: up making. All right, we went two in three so
13:31
Speaker 1: last week the contest we are in sixty first place.
13:35
Speaker 1: Right now, we dropped seven places. Um on the year,
13:40
Speaker 1: we are thirty eight and twenty seven. That's a winning
13:44
Speaker 1: percentage of fifty unbelievably good. Like that is professional. You know,
13:49
Speaker 1: make your money in six months record overall, including the
13:53
Speaker 1: picks we put in the app because we had to
13:56
Speaker 1: have two bye weeks, but we still made picks thirty
14:00
Speaker 1: four win percentage of Again, follow Simon Hunter in the app,
14:05
Speaker 1: that's where we put them all. On Sunday morning, we
14:08
Speaker 1: got a big balls bet of the week. We got
14:10
Speaker 1: a hornets nest. We gotta well, we don't have a
14:12
Speaker 1: survival im sorry we do. So it worked out where
14:17
Speaker 1: everyone else won one on one, so we only had
14:19
Speaker 1: one guy get knocked out. He went out, and two
14:22
Speaker 1: the rest of us wont won on one. That's that's
14:23
Speaker 1: what I'm saying. I would have wanted. If I wouldn't want,
14:25
Speaker 1: would have you still? So you're not out of it? Okay, okay, good,
14:30
Speaker 1: No sitting on a podcast right now. I'm an idiot,
14:34
Speaker 1: got it, You're an idiot. Idiot. We got the big
14:36
Speaker 1: balls bet last week it was the Saints a plus three. Uh.
14:40
Speaker 1: We ended up pushing that. We got the Hornets nest,
14:43
Speaker 1: we were on the Vikings. We switched to the Bears. Um,
14:46
Speaker 1: so you know, sorry about that. We gotta we got
14:52
Speaker 1: so many games to talk about. Man, it's like yeah,
14:54
Speaker 1: and for and for people thinking that like you were
14:56
Speaker 1: just saying, the show doesn't end after the season. Like
14:58
Speaker 1: last year on the playoffs, I came on and I
15:01
Speaker 1: gave out features on the Chiefs. We every week. I
15:04
Speaker 1: gave out the picks of the Chiefs. I also gave
15:05
Speaker 1: out the Titans money line against the Ravens. So if
15:08
Speaker 1: you if you like the show, we'll keep it going.
15:10
Speaker 1: Even in the playoffs. We are keeping it going, whether
15:15
Speaker 1: they honestly, whether they like it or not we can
15:18
Speaker 1: take their medicine. Yeah, all right. So we have a
15:22
Speaker 1: Friday game. We got the Vikings visiting the Saints on
15:26
Speaker 1: what looks like Christmas Day and the Vikings are seven
15:30
Speaker 1: point dogs at New Orleans. Look. New Orleans looked great,
15:34
Speaker 1: top notch defense, Drew Brees finally came into form at
15:37
Speaker 1: the end of that game. The Vikings just they never
15:41
Speaker 1: got it together. Like I kept thinking their defense would
15:43
Speaker 1: come around. My examiner would find the way. Uh the
15:46
Speaker 1: bets fifty of the money coming in on the Saints.
15:50
Speaker 1: What say you, Simon, what a great uh great game
15:55
Speaker 1: for Christmas? Just a holiday treat. Just one team that's
15:58
Speaker 1: completely going in the tank and the Saints they're dying
16:01
Speaker 1: for a bounce back game. But you just said it.
16:04
Speaker 1: All the money on Christmas Day is gonna come in
16:07
Speaker 1: all the Saints. This is a pro pro line seven
16:10
Speaker 1: and a half. We've taken the Vikings this year as
16:12
Speaker 1: a dog, and that's when they've been covering for us.
16:15
Speaker 1: That that that Tampa Bay one that was brutal, that
16:17
Speaker 1: was on the kicker, that was one of the few
16:18
Speaker 1: games didn't covered as a big dog. So I gotta
16:21
Speaker 1: to take the Vikings here, especially with the hook. It's
16:24
Speaker 1: it's a lot of points right now. I'm only seeing
16:26
Speaker 1: seven at DraftKings. That's brutals, Like draft I hate. I
16:31
Speaker 1: don't want to talk about about DraftKings. So they're killing
16:33
Speaker 1: us with these lines because there's so many books out there.
16:35
Speaker 1: Seven and a half and that's like, that's what we
16:37
Speaker 1: want to play the contest. We like the seven a
16:39
Speaker 1: half because that's just a great number, and we alf
16:43
Speaker 1: don't do pushes to here, but like, I don't want
16:45
Speaker 1: to bet the fucking Vikings. Give me the give me
16:47
Speaker 1: the forget about the emotion, give me your number here.
16:52
Speaker 1: That's what it is at seven. This is like a
16:54
Speaker 1: touchdown game. The Saints have a great defense last week
16:58
Speaker 1: that was unbelieve well, that guy pushed that ball at
17:01
Speaker 1: the end zone, Like if that that guy recovered that
17:03
Speaker 1: formal for the Saints, Saints probably would have won that
17:06
Speaker 1: game because they wouldn't have been tied at that point,
17:07
Speaker 1: and we saw it happen in the second half. They
17:10
Speaker 1: played really well to the Saints. But man, you're exactly right,
17:14
Speaker 1: this is one of those that no one wants to
17:16
Speaker 1: take to the Vikings. Everyone's sick of the Vikings. That's
17:18
Speaker 1: why it's a smart time to take him. It's just
17:20
Speaker 1: a lot of points. And I know the Saints are
17:22
Speaker 1: desperate they need to win, but seven a half a
17:24
Speaker 1: lot of points the leg against that Minnesota funds. All right,
17:29
Speaker 1: Well we'll wait and see. Maybe it'll get to seven
17:31
Speaker 1: and a half. I mean, but the bets are coming
17:34
Speaker 1: in on the Saints, so you know there's a chance.
17:37
Speaker 1: I'm saying there's a chance. So you're telling me there's
17:41
Speaker 1: a chance. Yeah, you know what I'm saying. Yeah, alright,
17:48
Speaker 1: let's get into the Saturday games. First lot, First one up, Buccaneers,
17:52
Speaker 1: resurgent Buccaneers against the Lions, who are looking no good.
17:58
Speaker 1: And I don't half point favorites on the road though, Yeah,
18:00
Speaker 1: I mean, the professional of me wants to tell you
18:03
Speaker 1: to take the home dog, the plus ten, the plus
18:05
Speaker 1: nine and a half. But if Stafford's hurt, he's playing hurt.
18:09
Speaker 1: He's just not right. Like that game, he did all
18:12
Speaker 1: he could, but that defense just got absolutely torched by Tennessee.
18:16
Speaker 1: And we've seen the Bukan hears. Just like last week.
18:19
Speaker 1: Their offense pulled him out of that big hole, and
18:21
Speaker 1: Tom Brady just put up a ton of points. So right,
18:25
Speaker 1: I don't want to touch this game because it's too
18:27
Speaker 1: too large of a team to take on the road here,
18:28
Speaker 1: But I'll be on the buck int your side. It's
18:30
Speaker 1: just I can't trust Stafford, all these injuries polling up.
18:33
Speaker 1: He just doesn't right right now. So you like it,
18:35
Speaker 1: you like it as a bet, but you don't think
18:37
Speaker 1: it's good for the contest. Yeah, that's just a scary number,
18:41
Speaker 1: Like I had this at eight. So I think you're
18:43
Speaker 1: getting good value on the lines, but I don't think
18:47
Speaker 1: my system taking into enough. How much banged up Stafford
18:50
Speaker 1: is he? Just in that game, he in that second half,
18:53
Speaker 1: he looked exhausted like he every time he would drop back,
18:57
Speaker 1: I was just scared he's gonna take a hit and
18:58
Speaker 1: that's gonna be end of it for the year. M
19:00
Speaker 1: So I'm getting good value here on the on the lines,
19:03
Speaker 1: but I'm not doing I can't take the line. So
19:05
Speaker 1: I would take the Bucaneers because of that. I want
19:07
Speaker 1: to put the competition as we go through this. We
19:09
Speaker 1: also have to think about is our strategy right now?
19:13
Speaker 1: Find the five games we think will make us go
19:15
Speaker 1: five and oh, find the five games that we think
19:17
Speaker 1: we'll move us up dramatically in the contest that nobody
19:19
Speaker 1: else is going to take. At this point, we just
19:22
Speaker 1: gotta go five, you know, we we we can't worry
19:24
Speaker 1: about anyone else. We we just need to go five
19:26
Speaker 1: and os. So that's why I like this week. Honestly,
19:29
Speaker 1: whatever we pretty much say on this Tuesday's show, I'm
19:31
Speaker 1: gonna try to stay to it. I'm not gonna try
19:33
Speaker 1: to be a decisive Sunday Morning like. I feel like
19:35
Speaker 1: we're gonna nail these numbers once again this week, Like
19:38
Speaker 1: I'll go over next week at the end of the
19:40
Speaker 1: year show. I've tracked all of our picks from this
19:43
Speaker 1: show and it's gonna make you so sad the percentage
19:47
Speaker 1: of what we want on on this show compared to
19:49
Speaker 1: what we did on Sunday. So I'll say that for
19:51
Speaker 1: next week, God, oh my god, that is going to
19:55
Speaker 1: be a brutal, brutal show. I can't well can't wait
20:00
Speaker 1: for that. We got you know it. By the way,
20:03
Speaker 1: that's why the phrase that pays you gotta own your decisions.
20:06
Speaker 1: You gotta forty Niners. The team we used to love
20:11
Speaker 1: to bet against, the Cardinals. The current team we love
20:14
Speaker 1: to bet the Cardinals are four and a half point
20:16
Speaker 1: favorites at home, which is essentially a home game for
20:19
Speaker 1: the forty Niners right now, I would take the Cardinals here,
20:23
Speaker 1: you would, well, what did I would? I not? I'm
20:26
Speaker 1: not do I not one to No. It's it's one
20:30
Speaker 1: of those where I think that everyone's done with the
20:34
Speaker 1: forty Niners. That was an awful game against Dallas. They
20:37
Speaker 1: had two red zone turnovers themselves. They had two muff punts.
20:40
Speaker 1: I think, uh, the four Niners in their own red zones.
20:43
Speaker 1: So I have to buy a lot in them here.
20:46
Speaker 1: The Cardinals, I love them last week because I thought
20:49
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts was gonna lay an egg. That was a
20:51
Speaker 1: rookie QB and his first start on the road, and
20:55
Speaker 1: I as a joke, but I'm kind of for real
20:57
Speaker 1: like this. This kid is incredible, Jadale Hurts. He's made
21:00
Speaker 1: in plays that only a handful of guys in the
21:03
Speaker 1: entire league can make the place you made against the
21:05
Speaker 1: Cardinals team. So Cardinals are a good team. They're getting
21:09
Speaker 1: in the playoff for him here. They need to win
21:11
Speaker 1: a divisional game plus four for the fourty Niners, and
21:15
Speaker 1: no one's gonna betting. I have to it's the pro
21:18
Speaker 1: it's the pro side. You have to take the plus
21:19
Speaker 1: four year for the forty Well, you're a right. And
21:22
Speaker 1: as soon as I said I want to take the Cardinals,
21:24
Speaker 1: I looked. I scrolled over on the Action Network website
21:28
Speaker 1: to see the percentage of bets coming in on the
21:30
Speaker 1: Cardinals and it was so, uh, we're getting four and
21:35
Speaker 1: a half. The draftkicks on this, So we're getting forty
21:38
Speaker 1: nine four and a half. It feels like an automatic take. Yeah,
21:42
Speaker 1: that's that's crazy that much more like I thought it was
21:45
Speaker 1: was gonna be something like sixtent but eight percent. Like
21:49
Speaker 1: the public does get games right, like you just said
21:50
Speaker 1: with that Buffalo game, they were they were on that one.
21:53
Speaker 1: They were on the Cleveland that was good picked by them.
21:55
Speaker 1: But we have to take this divisional game. But everyone's
21:59
Speaker 1: given up on the forty Niners. Like you just had
22:01
Speaker 1: all that money come on the Cardinals, like four and
22:03
Speaker 1: a half, that that's a good number, bing ming ming
22:05
Speaker 1: ming ming, forty Niners plus four and a half. That's
22:08
Speaker 1: how that's the road to five and oh starts with
22:11
Speaker 1: professional picks. And the forty Niners plus four and a
22:14
Speaker 1: half is a professional pick on Sunday on. That's by
22:17
Speaker 1: the way, this is Saturday game, Saturday morning, Saturday morning.
22:21
Speaker 1: I don't want to get a fucking text from you, Okay,
22:24
Speaker 1: I don't want to, Like, I don't want to get
22:26
Speaker 1: it to text that says the numbers no good, you know,
22:30
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. I've been thinking we're fucking in Okay,
22:37
Speaker 1: all right, but yeah, that is what I do with
22:39
Speaker 1: the numbers, is true? Man Like I that's my job
22:41
Speaker 1: is to find you value. Like you wanted to do
22:43
Speaker 1: the Saints. I said, why would we do the Saints?
22:45
Speaker 1: And we could have got three and a half? Three
22:46
Speaker 1: that was a bad number. So sometimes it does matter,
22:48
Speaker 1: but you're right. For the most part, the final number
22:51
Speaker 1: really doesn't matter. So I'm with there. If this, if
22:54
Speaker 1: this moves down to three and a half, I'll probably
22:56
Speaker 1: be still cool to fort niners. But four and a
22:58
Speaker 1: half we love that number. Dolphins minus two and a
23:01
Speaker 1: half on the road at the Las Vegas raidsts. Wow. Yeah,
23:07
Speaker 1: people are gonna see a theme here of me just
23:08
Speaker 1: taking these home dogs. But this is what I have
23:12
Speaker 1: to do. It to stick life. This is the life
23:14
Speaker 1: I chose to live. I take home dogs, specialty home
23:17
Speaker 1: Dogs in the public doesn't like, so the Raiders they're
23:21
Speaker 1: gonna be I don't even know what the percentage of
23:23
Speaker 1: the money is, but right so, like I was gonna say,
23:28
Speaker 1: I can promise you the public will come in heavy
23:29
Speaker 1: on the Dolphins. They've played really well here the last
23:32
Speaker 1: few weeks. But the Raiders are awful. They have played terrible.
23:38
Speaker 1: I refuse to put them in this contest because they've
23:40
Speaker 1: just been on such a bad slot. Like some of
23:42
Speaker 1: these teams I just stay away from because it just
23:45
Speaker 1: seems like they're falling apart. Like no, two teams are
23:49
Speaker 1: worse than NFL right now the last three or four weeks,
23:51
Speaker 1: and the Raiders and the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I love
23:55
Speaker 1: the Raiders here. I'll be betting then professionally, but I
23:57
Speaker 1: will not ask you ever to put this in the competition.
24:00
Speaker 1: I'm happy to stay away from this one. Dolphins Raiders
24:02
Speaker 1: is the prime time Saturday night game. And by the way,
24:05
Speaker 1: if we end up I wrote it down like, if
24:08
Speaker 1: we end up thinking the Raiders are disgusting, but if
24:13
Speaker 1: we're going to go five, you know that's how we're
24:14
Speaker 1: going to do it, and we gotta do a baby.
24:18
Speaker 1: We'll see if, like if we actually do go through
24:20
Speaker 1: and to take the four niners and that comes through,
24:22
Speaker 1: and I'm feeling myself, chat, I might, we might do
24:25
Speaker 1: it to take the Raiders, but right now I don't
24:27
Speaker 1: want to do that to us or the fans. Chicago
24:29
Speaker 1: Bears are on the road seven and a half point
24:31
Speaker 1: favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even my fourteen year old
24:37
Speaker 1: son said to me this morning, how are the Bears
24:39
Speaker 1: touchdown favorites on the road. Sickening? It's sickening, That's what
24:46
Speaker 1: I'm saying, Like these home dogs. This is what I
24:48
Speaker 1: have to do. You have to take the jack seven
24:50
Speaker 1: and a half. I know they're horrible. I mean that
24:54
Speaker 1: game last week against the Ravens. I like the Ravens
24:56
Speaker 1: simply just because they beat up on bad teams last week,
24:59
Speaker 1: but had the over in that game for a decent
25:01
Speaker 1: amount of money and it was a horrible, horrible existence.
25:06
Speaker 1: Really needing the Jacks get a touchdowns in the game.
25:08
Speaker 1: They got it, like this offense did get the fourteen points.
25:11
Speaker 1: But like you just said, why why are the Bears
25:15
Speaker 1: seven and a half favorites or any anybody? They're inconsistent? Yeah,
25:19
Speaker 1: They've played really well here. They made a switch of
25:22
Speaker 1: offensive coording and it's worked for him. They've had good
25:24
Speaker 1: offense last couple of weeks here. But I have to
25:27
Speaker 1: take a home dog, especially the one that's getting no money.
25:30
Speaker 1: Like all the money's coming in on the Bears, and
25:33
Speaker 1: this is prime time to take the Jags last time
25:36
Speaker 1: of the year. We'll probably take the Jacks here, but
25:38
Speaker 1: we'll take this number even though I'm gonna we'll talk
25:40
Speaker 1: about it when at the end the Bears who I
25:42
Speaker 1: have left for survivor. So I'm gonna be trying to
25:44
Speaker 1: play the middle here and just laying on the seven.
25:46
Speaker 1: But I like the Jacks here. I I am not
25:49
Speaker 1: uncomfortable at all taking the Jags a plus seven and
25:52
Speaker 1: a half. I think we're getting the best of it
25:54
Speaker 1: right now. And everyone's thinking the Bears are amazing after
25:56
Speaker 1: that Vikings game. Everyone righting off the Jags after that
26:00
Speaker 1: Ravens game. Uh, that is the best of the number,
26:03
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, All of a sudden. As we
26:05
Speaker 1: continue in the Sunday afternoon, in early games, the Colts
26:09
Speaker 1: are favorites on the road against the Steelers. Yeah, this
26:19
Speaker 1: might be my chalkiest pick. Of the week. But I'm
26:22
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Colts. I I have a
26:26
Speaker 1: lot of money on Pittsburgh's their futures, Like I'm gonna
26:29
Speaker 1: have to hedge it out. It's stead. I think it's
26:31
Speaker 1: gonna come down in this Browns game. So hopefully the
26:33
Speaker 1: Browns they're underdogs and I can get a good plus
26:36
Speaker 1: number on the Browns because I'm have to hedge. I
26:38
Speaker 1: have a big futures bet on the Steelers and when
26:40
Speaker 1: the FC um north, So this is a game where
26:43
Speaker 1: just feel like they're gonna drop it there playing against
26:46
Speaker 1: a great Colts defense. The Steelers defense has two many
26:49
Speaker 1: injuries that have called up to him, and we've seen
26:52
Speaker 1: with Big Ben he's terrified back there. He's got guys
26:55
Speaker 1: streaking downfield open, but he doesn't care. He's just looking
26:58
Speaker 1: underneath because he just wants to get the ballock quick.
27:00
Speaker 1: And we just saw a Bengals defense is not that
27:04
Speaker 1: good dominate the Steelers, and I think maybe maybe the
27:08
Speaker 1: gig is up. Maybe Washington showed everyone how that's really
27:10
Speaker 1: stopped this offense, just playing up front and letting them
27:13
Speaker 1: take the deep shots. So the public is coming on
27:16
Speaker 1: the Colts and I'm gonna ride with him here, like
27:18
Speaker 1: it's ready for me to go back to home Dog.
27:19
Speaker 1: But I just think that Big Bend's injuries and the
27:23
Speaker 1: injuries to that defensive comptrom finally, so I think you're
27:26
Speaker 1: getting good number as long as Stay's under through the Colts.
27:29
Speaker 1: That is really interesting that the Steelers clearly UM since
27:36
Speaker 1: the injury too. Was it Bud Dupree the other day?
27:41
Speaker 1: Since his injury, they haven't been the same team. And
27:43
Speaker 1: and I think in the first game after that, a
27:46
Speaker 1: lot of people didn't really take that into account. And
27:51
Speaker 1: we've seen consistently like this team just getting worse and worse. Uh,
27:56
Speaker 1: and it's really hard for them to get a pressure.
27:58
Speaker 1: Everyone is all over t JJ like it's um despite
28:03
Speaker 1: the sack record, like it's it's kind of tragic, Like
28:05
Speaker 1: you feel bad for him because their defense was so
28:07
Speaker 1: prominent and they lost two key players to a c
28:09
Speaker 1: l S one of the first game of the year.
28:11
Speaker 1: Now this past few weeks, UM, I'm with you on
28:15
Speaker 1: the Steelers futures. I have them with you as well,
28:17
Speaker 1: just we talked about in the podcast. So I'm putting
28:21
Speaker 1: the Coats down at minus one and a half that
28:22
Speaker 1: we're gonna put them in the contests. Yeah, we'll go
28:26
Speaker 1: over it to next week. Probably we'll talk about because
28:28
Speaker 1: we gave about I posted the show today actually about
28:30
Speaker 1: our our futures from May, and then we did another
28:33
Speaker 1: show in August we talked about futures. But um, I'll
28:37
Speaker 1: recap some of those because we had some big like
28:40
Speaker 1: we had a big bet on the Bills going over
28:42
Speaker 1: their total and went in the division and that's obviously
28:45
Speaker 1: both cash. So we'll review all that next week. Though,
28:48
Speaker 1: look at you bringing it back. You would truly have
28:50
Speaker 1: become a media professional. The New York Football Giants, they
28:54
Speaker 1: are eleven point underdogs on the road against the Ravens.
28:58
Speaker 1: The Giants, yea big underdogs. We're not talking about this
29:02
Speaker 1: game right, Well, there's no way we're investing in the Giants.
29:04
Speaker 1: Like we gave we gave him a shot. It's over. Yeah,
29:08
Speaker 1: like it's your boy cult, We get it. You love
29:11
Speaker 1: Colte McCoy, but it burned us. We're off of it.
29:13
Speaker 1: We will have to talk about it, but yeah, I'll
29:15
Speaker 1: probably be on the bear of the Giant side just
29:17
Speaker 1: because everyone's leaving for dead. But we're not putting this in.
29:20
Speaker 1: There's no way uh. The Chiefs. Mine is tending a
29:24
Speaker 1: half against the Falcons. Ah gad e ah, No we
29:34
Speaker 1: have to do it though, No, no, the Chiefs get
29:37
Speaker 1: back door it every time. I know. But the fucking
29:39
Speaker 1: like you know who's not going to back to the Chiefs.
29:42
Speaker 1: You know who's not flying through that back door? The
29:45
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons. You can know it's coming. I I honestly,
29:55
Speaker 1: I'm cool and not putting this in just because I
29:58
Speaker 1: am so blessed that in a plus six cash like
30:01
Speaker 1: I think the Bucks were like minus seven or minus
30:03
Speaker 1: seven and a half and a half time. So I said,
30:05
Speaker 1: oh sweet, I'm gonna get out a nice little middle here.
30:07
Speaker 1: The Bucks will come back, They'll still lose. I'll still
30:10
Speaker 1: cash my Atlanta money line and my Atlanta plus uh
30:13
Speaker 1: plus six. But I had in my competition. I have
30:17
Speaker 1: a lot of teams left side and survivor. I had
30:19
Speaker 1: the Bucks. So I was in a weird spot where
30:20
Speaker 1: it's like I kind of hedged myself just in case
30:22
Speaker 1: the Bucks did lose, and holy heck did Atlanta fall apart.
30:27
Speaker 1: So I'm with you, I don't want to test fade
30:29
Speaker 1: here because Atlanta after that loss, they could all those
30:32
Speaker 1: guys just quit on the season, like that could have
30:34
Speaker 1: been the one that just they fold up shop there.
30:36
Speaker 1: So I will take this number because the Chiefs have
30:39
Speaker 1: been good to me. They just been letting teams back dorm.
30:41
Speaker 1: The three and a half of the Saints came through
30:42
Speaker 1: the three pushed good three. But I'm with you. I'll
30:46
Speaker 1: just stay away from this one. I put them on
30:49
Speaker 1: whist dress in case rounds. The Browns are ten point
30:56
Speaker 1: road favorites, the streaking Browns. The Browns can be beat.
31:00
Speaker 1: The Browns will go into the meadowlands as favorites, increasing favorites,
31:05
Speaker 1: and they still cover his touchdown favorites. Has Baker may
31:09
Speaker 1: feel figured it out? Has Kevin Stefans he figured it out?
31:12
Speaker 1: Is that defense is as good as we think is.
31:14
Speaker 1: Their offensive line just outstanding. A bunch of Pro bowlers
31:18
Speaker 1: on that offensive line, even though there was injuries. Was
31:21
Speaker 1: that the Jets best effort this past week against the Rams.
31:24
Speaker 1: Is now the time to take a huge double digit
31:27
Speaker 1: favorite known as the Cleveland Browns. I refused to take
31:34
Speaker 1: the Browns here. This is like this is sickning, but
31:39
Speaker 1: like the funniest part, the most fun I had ever
31:42
Speaker 1: on Twitter. It's probably tweeting out that Jets thing because
31:46
Speaker 1: people don't want to listen, like people listen to this
31:48
Speaker 1: show a lot of especially if we get stuff on
31:50
Speaker 1: like God, what are these guys now? But that Jets one.
31:53
Speaker 1: I will never you will never hear me saying the
31:55
Speaker 1: Jets are free money, okay, And I put that literally
31:57
Speaker 1: out to the universe on Twitter, that the Jets that
31:59
Speaker 1: sweet last week for free money and no one was
32:04
Speaker 1: happy when they won that game. Jets fans weren't happy.
32:06
Speaker 1: Every joe you know at the local bar had at
32:09
Speaker 1: o N sixteen ticket on the Jets because they're a sucker.
32:12
Speaker 1: And it's like, this is football, It's it's all every
32:16
Speaker 1: game any given Sunday is the truest statement. That's what
32:19
Speaker 1: like makes that what the Chiefs are doing so incredible
32:21
Speaker 1: is that everyone knows. Everyone's given the Chiefs their best
32:24
Speaker 1: shot every week and my home just keeps winning. Where
32:27
Speaker 1: the Jets eventually a team was gonna sleep on them,
32:30
Speaker 1: and that was such a snowball effect where it was
32:33
Speaker 1: Jared Goff, who was just a bipolar quarterback. One weeks
32:36
Speaker 1: is good. One week he's just the worst keeping the league.
32:39
Speaker 1: And this week, like you just said, the Browns. I've
32:42
Speaker 1: been wrong on him. I didn't think the year one
32:44
Speaker 1: was the fans gime they'd figure out the offensive. Bakers
32:47
Speaker 1: played so well in this offense. But I talked about
32:50
Speaker 1: it early in the show. Home Dogs. That's what I'm
32:53
Speaker 1: here for, like like this is what professionals do. We
32:55
Speaker 1: take this plus ten and we'll throw a little the
32:57
Speaker 1: Jets money line. If the Jets go up ten, sin
33:00
Speaker 1: seven been nothing. We had you out in the Browns
33:01
Speaker 1: win and you just hit a nice little medals. So
33:04
Speaker 1: once again I'll make back here on the Jets. They've
33:06
Speaker 1: been playing well. I know they laid a stinker with
33:09
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, but if you look at the other games
33:11
Speaker 1: they have a couple of games this year they could
33:12
Speaker 1: have won that Oakland one they should have won. They
33:14
Speaker 1: should have beaten New England when they were at home.
33:16
Speaker 1: They like let them come back in the game and lose.
33:18
Speaker 1: So I still think the public is still thinking themselves
33:21
Speaker 1: this Jets team is just awful. When I think, just
33:24
Speaker 1: like last week, we're gonna get good value. He especially
33:26
Speaker 1: if it's at plus ten. That's that's crazy. This home
33:29
Speaker 1: team is plus ten, So we'll take the Jets, right
33:31
Speaker 1: now we're putting the Jets plus ten potentially in the contest.
33:35
Speaker 1: We are. I'm not gonna let it get scared off
33:36
Speaker 1: because I'm so mad at myself for moving them out
33:39
Speaker 1: just because it was Draft Kings are smart. They do
33:42
Speaker 1: these weird things like that plus sixteen. I didn't see
33:44
Speaker 1: a plus sixteen in any book this whole week with
33:47
Speaker 1: the Jets, but Jet that somehow Draft Kings knew that
33:49
Speaker 1: would scare people off, and they put that number in
33:51
Speaker 1: plus sixteen. So like, if they move this to plus
33:54
Speaker 1: nine and a half plus nine, I'll still take the
33:57
Speaker 1: Jets here, all right. We still got to get to
34:00
Speaker 1: a big balls bet. We still got a hornet. I
34:02
Speaker 1: should have said it there. That's why far the big
34:05
Speaker 1: Oh my god, big balls better than week. I can't
34:15
Speaker 1: wait till we get that one sponsored by like the
34:18
Speaker 1: local urologist. Now we I told you, we gotta get like,
34:24
Speaker 1: you know, the guy that men's clipper clippers wherever trim
34:27
Speaker 1: in the area downstairs. We gotta get those guys a sponsor. Yeah,
34:31
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, get on that Bengals Texans. Bengals on the road,
34:36
Speaker 1: nine point dogs to the Texans. I mean, it's gonna
34:42
Speaker 1: be we can. We'll do it quick. Like we don't
34:44
Speaker 1: spend time on Les's gonna put it in, But I'm
34:46
Speaker 1: gonna take the Bengals here. But it's there's no no
34:49
Speaker 1: smart rationality than the Houston smid favorite more than seven
34:52
Speaker 1: over anybody. Like we saw the Jags back door, They're
34:55
Speaker 1: just the Houston is not a good team. So I'll
34:57
Speaker 1: take all those points for the Bengals. What is your
34:59
Speaker 1: number on this? Because I've feel the same way, like
35:01
Speaker 1: I look at this, I'm like, what that doesn't make
35:03
Speaker 1: any sense? Seven and a half, So, like I thought
35:06
Speaker 1: for sure they would hanging at seven a half or seven,
35:08
Speaker 1: But it's interesting they have it at that high. So
35:11
Speaker 1: they're kind of tempting you that. That's why I don't
35:12
Speaker 1: want to put it in because it feels like they're
35:14
Speaker 1: sucking me in on the Bengals. You don't want to
35:16
Speaker 1: give an a temptation. No late games, late games, Oh boy. Look,
35:22
Speaker 1: we could bet the Broncos as three point road dogs
35:26
Speaker 1: against the Los Angeles Chargers. Those are teams that we
35:29
Speaker 1: love betting on. That's how we think we're going to
35:31
Speaker 1: get back in the money in the Draft Kings Contest yeah,
35:34
Speaker 1: we're passing. But three and a half for the Broncos
35:36
Speaker 1: Divisional game, I'll take it. Like last week. People can
35:40
Speaker 1: give us crap all the time about the Bills, but
35:41
Speaker 1: that's that's an anomaly game. That's how people think Vegas
35:45
Speaker 1: is so stupid. Why wasn't that number seven then if
35:47
Speaker 1: the Bills were such a lock? It was six all
35:49
Speaker 1: weeks five and a half, it was just ann league game.
35:51
Speaker 1: Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong, and Josh
35:54
Speaker 1: Allen played ab his mind. The Bills, make something to
36:00
Speaker 1: throw your hands, something to throw your hand back to troll.
36:04
Speaker 1: Now the Bills, I'm making it happen now. So I'll
36:08
Speaker 1: buy allow again on the Broncos. The Chargers coming off
36:11
Speaker 1: back to back wins, maybe they're maybe they're just going
36:14
Speaker 1: on the right team right now. The Chargers because they
36:15
Speaker 1: have played well last couple of weeks. But Divisional game
36:18
Speaker 1: three and a half, I'll take the Broncos all right.
36:23
Speaker 1: Next up the Carolina Panthers. Teddy covers plus two and
36:27
Speaker 1: a half at the Washington Football team. Dwayne Haskins celebrating
36:32
Speaker 1: his near victory. He's twenty three come from behind loss
36:39
Speaker 1: by allegedly going to a strip club. Uh we're not
36:43
Speaker 1: only were they, I'm assuming topless but also maskless to
36:52
Speaker 1: the phrase topless and fairs. To him, it was a
36:55
Speaker 1: dollar wing night. So who knows what if he was
36:57
Speaker 1: going there just for the wings or the strippers, but
36:59
Speaker 1: it's clubs are known for their great wings. My man
37:02
Speaker 1: has millions of dollars being paid on to play his
37:05
Speaker 1: dream sport and he's risking all of that to go
37:08
Speaker 1: to a strip club after a win, like breaking all
37:10
Speaker 1: the COVID guidelines. Not a win a lost. It's true
37:18
Speaker 1: cover Twayne Haskins covered, He's like, we covered, let's hit
37:22
Speaker 1: the club. Oh my god? So what do we do?
37:26
Speaker 1: We always talk Teddy. Teddy is a dog. We love
37:28
Speaker 1: Teddy is a dog. So if it's Alex Smith, will
37:32
Speaker 1: revisit it because we love Alex Smith and we love
37:34
Speaker 1: when he's playing for this Washington team because he's just
37:36
Speaker 1: such a good QB. But no way, no way, I
37:39
Speaker 1: would take Haskins especially is a favorite. So if it's
37:42
Speaker 1: uh fits Tim playing this week, he's not kicked off
37:45
Speaker 1: the team. Yeah, well we'll be on the Panthers this week.
37:50
Speaker 1: Are all right? You're Philadelphia Eagles with Jalen Hurts are
37:53
Speaker 1: now two point two and a half point favorites on
37:56
Speaker 1: the road against the Cowboys. Listen, I love Jalen, her
38:00
Speaker 1: big fan. I think you performed admirably and gave me
38:04
Speaker 1: a scare um. But I still like the Cowboys, his
38:08
Speaker 1: home dogs. Like they're just playing better, Like they're they're
38:11
Speaker 1: playing better and people are sleeping on him. Yeah, and
38:16
Speaker 1: sixciting times right now, Chad, I got a quarterback and
38:18
Speaker 1: Hurts Matt Mittell was a quarterback and Josh Allen and
38:22
Speaker 1: you have a quarterback. You have a quarterback, and it's
38:25
Speaker 1: your biscuit. One of the best kivs in the league
38:27
Speaker 1: right now. So yeah, said, I have to take my
38:31
Speaker 1: emotion out of it. Of course I want to bet
38:33
Speaker 1: on the Eagles and paying me to fade them last
38:35
Speaker 1: week and knowing that this is the game that the Eagles.
38:38
Speaker 1: They win this they can win this division. But like
38:41
Speaker 1: you just said, Cowboys have been playing better, the defense
38:43
Speaker 1: has been playing a little bit better. Uh, home dog
38:47
Speaker 1: public coming in heavy on the egos, I'm presuming. Because
38:50
Speaker 1: this number moved from minus one of plus two, so
38:52
Speaker 1: that means wow, that's terrifying as an Eagles fan. So yeah,
38:58
Speaker 1: the egos fan of me. I hope the US win
39:00
Speaker 1: this game, but the sharp to me, the better. I'm
39:02
Speaker 1: happy to take the Cowboys if this went to plus three.
39:05
Speaker 1: This is an automatic cleaner and competition. We got a
39:08
Speaker 1: lot of games we're building up here, A lot of
39:10
Speaker 1: games are gonna have to choose from on Saturday and Sunday.
39:13
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Cowboys and I'm thinking we're walking
39:16
Speaker 1: into the hornets Nest. Do you want that to be
39:18
Speaker 1: the hornets Nest? Check? Because you might be my only
39:20
Speaker 1: companion walking in with me on that one. I'm walking
39:23
Speaker 1: to a fucking hornets Nest. All right, I'll be my companion.
39:26
Speaker 1: You are my companion. We are in the foxhol We're
39:30
Speaker 1: in the Hornets Nest. Got the Jets of the big
39:32
Speaker 1: balls better? The week Rams are one point dogs the
39:36
Speaker 1: game that will decide the NFC West O stay away
39:41
Speaker 1: from me. I'll be on the Seahawks side. But I
39:44
Speaker 1: don't want to put this thing competition. There's too much,
39:46
Speaker 1: too much going on here where the Rams always play
39:50
Speaker 1: the Seahawks really tough. The Seahawks, I don't know how
39:54
Speaker 1: if I don't, it's not that I don't trust them.
39:56
Speaker 1: It's just that there's too many things going on the
39:57
Speaker 1: Shawks lately that it's like some expressed Wilson's playing really bad.
40:01
Speaker 1: He's completely falling off the map in the m v
40:02
Speaker 1: P race, like he's just not even in the top three,
40:06
Speaker 1: top four conversation anymore. But the Rams that I just
40:09
Speaker 1: don't want to bet against. I don't want to put
40:11
Speaker 1: this competition or simply because the Ram just had that
40:13
Speaker 1: loss against the Jets, like, how how do they not
40:15
Speaker 1: play crazy fired up this week? But I like the
40:18
Speaker 1: Seahawks here, so I'm cool to stay away from this one.
40:21
Speaker 1: How do you not play crazy fired up against the Jets? Honestly,
40:24
Speaker 1: if you're a professional, you know the opportunity in front
40:26
Speaker 1: of you, you take that opportunity, you win it. You
40:29
Speaker 1: don't put yourself in a position where you have to
40:32
Speaker 1: go on the road against the Seahawks. I mean, I
40:34
Speaker 1: know the Jets are you know, in name and professional
40:37
Speaker 1: football team, and there are people with pride in your side,
40:39
Speaker 1: but that that was a stunning lack of professionalism. I
40:45
Speaker 1: agree with you on the Titans, so I don't want
40:46
Speaker 1: to Titan. The money coming in and the tip on
40:48
Speaker 1: the bets coming in and the Titans right now as
40:50
Speaker 1: three and a half point dogs. I do think um
40:54
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry may end up running for three yards in
40:58
Speaker 1: this game. Yeah, so like I get it too. That's
41:02
Speaker 1: this is a point truly a coin flip games. So
41:03
Speaker 1: you are getting like I had this said three, I
41:05
Speaker 1: think you are getting good value on the Titans, but
41:07
Speaker 1: the fact that they're the public dog this week, just
41:09
Speaker 1: like last week Eagles were the public dog. I stay
41:12
Speaker 1: away from public dogs, or I tend to stay them.
41:14
Speaker 1: So primetime game here with the Packers. Hopefully the money
41:17
Speaker 1: keeps coming in on the Titans and I can get
41:19
Speaker 1: the best of the number and get the Packers of
41:21
Speaker 1: minus three mins two and a half. But we'll stay away.
41:25
Speaker 1: That's what's gonna happen this last game. Look Monday night
41:28
Speaker 1: game fitting fitting coda to the end of the season,
41:33
Speaker 1: because you've got the Bills, who have just taken over
41:36
Speaker 1: as the a f C champions, going against the longtime
41:41
Speaker 1: champions New England Patriots. The Bills. Matt Mitchell, Matt Mitchell
41:47
Speaker 1: of Western New York. The Bills are seven point favorites
41:52
Speaker 1: on the roads in the same old Bills. Man, We're
42:00
Speaker 1: not gonna let anybody on the outside tell us who
42:02
Speaker 1: we are. Come on, whatna who gonna be? Who they
42:07
Speaker 1: want to talk about our blue collars and our rust belts.
42:10
Speaker 1: We'll just keep baking guys out of their shoes. And
42:14
Speaker 1: that was one of the best things I saw all
42:16
Speaker 1: weekend was josh An posted a video of them getting
42:19
Speaker 1: in and I think it was like two or three
42:20
Speaker 1: in the morning back in New York and he was driving.
42:23
Speaker 1: All the fans had come. I mean, I know, like
42:26
Speaker 1: I shouldn't be saying that because I had COVID, and like,
42:28
Speaker 1: of course I want these people to be safe, but
42:31
Speaker 1: who cares man Bills fans twenty years like die or
42:36
Speaker 1: like some are. Everyone loves the Bills. My offfield this
42:41
Speaker 1: is bush. I had some bad experience with Bills fans,
42:45
Speaker 1: but come on, I'm from Philly. We have the worst
42:47
Speaker 1: fans in the world. So like, I can't say anything
42:48
Speaker 1: bad about Bills fans. They're passionate. I love it. I'm
42:51
Speaker 1: so happy for like that's someone that bet on the
42:54
Speaker 1: Bills that when they have ceased, it's a great feeling
42:57
Speaker 1: knowing that. In the summertime, I kind of was like,
43:00
Speaker 1: and am I really been against the Patriots to win
43:02
Speaker 1: this division. But now, I mean, you're sitting here feeling
43:05
Speaker 1: like geniuses because the Bills ran away of this division.
43:08
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna keep my trend going Bill of fading
43:10
Speaker 1: the Bills and losing money, because once again I told
43:13
Speaker 1: you this week as a home dog week. There's all
43:15
Speaker 1: these home dogs and new Lands awful, Cam Newton's awful.
43:21
Speaker 1: No one should have been on New England. Everyone should
43:23
Speaker 1: bet on the Bills, the smart sides of the Bills.
43:25
Speaker 1: But I have to take New England, especially if they're
43:28
Speaker 1: up some books seven plus seven and a half. I
43:31
Speaker 1: cannot take the Bills minus seven and a half on
43:33
Speaker 1: the road, especially after they just clinched the third division.
43:35
Speaker 1: I have to take the Patriots here a hundred degree.
43:39
Speaker 1: Do we love them enough at seven point dogs to
43:43
Speaker 1: put them in the contest. Now, I'm banning us from
43:46
Speaker 1: going against the Bills in the contest. We every time
43:48
Speaker 1: we've gone against the Bills, we've lost in the contest.
43:50
Speaker 1: So I can't do it to something and we have
43:52
Speaker 1: to go five and ow Alright, So right now, right now,
43:56
Speaker 1: are big balls better? The week I to you buy
44:01
Speaker 1: eulogy is us the New York Jets, Hornets Nest Game
44:07
Speaker 1: of the Week. We're walking into the Hornets Nest together
44:10
Speaker 1: with the Cowboys. The survivor pick has gotta be the Bears.
44:15
Speaker 1: It's looking like I'm gonna do the Bears. And I
44:17
Speaker 1: can't believe I'm saying this, but my best option might
44:20
Speaker 1: be the Jets. So I'm gonna keep people posting I'll
44:24
Speaker 1: post it online. But that's what I have left here
44:25
Speaker 1: at the end. Are you freaking kidding me? It's awful.
44:31
Speaker 1: You're gonna put the Jets in over the Browns as
44:34
Speaker 1: a survivor pick. We did. Yeah, Like I'm telling you,
44:37
Speaker 1: I have nothing left. Like I played every team you
44:41
Speaker 1: can think of, because we've been doing two teams here
44:43
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. So it's like you have
44:45
Speaker 1: to do the lines the Um or the Jets or yeah,
44:51
Speaker 1: I can't do the Jets. I'm taking the Bears. That's
44:53
Speaker 1: who they're going to get, so I literally have no
44:54
Speaker 1: other options. Oh my god, that is dreadful to have
44:59
Speaker 1: little money on the line. That's why I'm so sick
45:02
Speaker 1: about not winning it. This should be over. It should
45:04
Speaker 1: be over. I hate myself, dude, I'm so mad. These
45:07
Speaker 1: are the games we're talking about right now. We're gonna
45:09
Speaker 1: choose five from this list forty Niners plus four and
45:13
Speaker 1: a half, Jags plus seven and a half, Colts minus
45:18
Speaker 1: one and a half, Falcons plus eleven, Jets plus ten,
45:25
Speaker 1: Panthers plus two and a half, Cowboys plus two and
45:29
Speaker 1: a half. We got some gems on here, and I
45:32
Speaker 1: do feel like we've got some professional decisions to make.
45:36
Speaker 1: We're gonna own our decision. Speaking of owning our decision,
45:42
Speaker 1: that is the phrase that pays this week. Reminder, we
45:48
Speaker 1: have been asking fans all season long to rate and
45:50
Speaker 1: review the podcast. Those who do and use the winning
45:54
Speaker 1: phrase in their review have been eligible to win up
45:57
Speaker 1: to five hundred dollars A hundred dollars for every game
45:59
Speaker 1: Simming and I win. Thank you for all your reviews
46:03
Speaker 1: all season long. The phrase the pays will continue through
46:06
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Are let's see, we're doing another one. We're
46:10
Speaker 1: bringing it back. We're gonna match that number with a
46:15
Speaker 1: donation to the winner's favorite charity. If you rate and
46:18
Speaker 1: review the podcast using the phrase Simon says, own your
46:24
Speaker 1: decisions and Matt Mitchell randomly chooses it, you will win
46:31
Speaker 1: some money your favorite charity will win some money. Simon says,
46:34
Speaker 1: own your decisions. The winner of this week's contest is
46:40
Speaker 1: reviewer Betton mick Fly. Betton mc fly, I don't have
46:45
Speaker 1: your real name, brother, you god to send it to
46:47
Speaker 1: Matt dot Mitchell at Action network dot com to claim
46:50
Speaker 1: your prize two peas in a pod. Let me just
46:55
Speaker 1: say I'm so happy to have stumbled upon this podcast.
46:59
Speaker 1: I normally don't listen podcast the entire length, but this
47:03
Speaker 1: is a must listen. Listen from beginning to end. I
47:06
Speaker 1: just want to say thank you to Chat and Simon
47:08
Speaker 1: for sharing your insights and knowledge on sports betting. Not
47:11
Speaker 1: only do they provide great picks, but they have great stories,
47:14
Speaker 1: which keeps me entertained. I've only been listening for a
47:17
Speaker 1: couple of weeks and my bank roll is already up.
47:20
Speaker 1: These guys have a great dynamic when it comes to
47:23
Speaker 1: discussing their picks. I look forward to the next one.
47:30
Speaker 1: Thanks for their for you man, Yeah hopefully. Uh, Like
47:32
Speaker 1: we'll talk about next week the numbers. If you just
47:34
Speaker 1: listen to this show and just bet what we talk about. Man,
47:37
Speaker 1: have you had a good year? You really have? You
47:40
Speaker 1: really can go in five this week? Like you're gonna
47:43
Speaker 1: be over. That's what you got to do to be
47:46
Speaker 1: profitable in sports betting. Like like, you don't become a
47:50
Speaker 1: millionaire betting on sports betting on football in one season,
47:53
Speaker 1: but you can't be profitable, and we've done that for you.
47:56
Speaker 1: We can go. So we gave out like seven picks.
47:58
Speaker 1: I think you just did there. We can go or
48:00
Speaker 1: seven and we'll still finish on just the pis giving
48:03
Speaker 1: out on the pot about six for the season. Oh
48:06
Speaker 1: my god, does that make you sick? That actually makes
48:10
Speaker 1: me sick too. Oh my fucking guy, that makes me sick. Awful.
48:17
Speaker 1: That's all. We got to own our decisions. Simon has
48:20
Speaker 1: owned your decisions. This has been the favorite podcast from
48:24
Speaker 1: the Action Network for Simon Hunter at Simon Hunter Tan
48:27
Speaker 1: on Twitter. I'm Chad Melman at Chad Milman down on
48:30
Speaker 1: the podcast, Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever do you get your podcast?
48:34
Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you,