Latest / INSIGHT TODAY / Heatwaves and record-low water levels threaten European energy crisis

Transcript

Heatwaves and record-low water levels threaten European energy crisis · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Well.
• 0:00
  Speaker 2: Europe's heat waves are no longer just threatening lives. They're
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: threatening to shut down the power supply. Romania's military is
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: blowing up rock formations in the Danube in an attempt
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: to redirect more water towards the country's Serena Voda nuclear
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: power plant. After months of drought and extreme heat, the
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: river is running solo that one reactor has already been
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: shut down. A second could follow.
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: The forces that we have mobilized here will work shoulder
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: to shoulder to achieve this submerged threshold on the Balat
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: arm with the hope that by Tuesday we will have
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: achieved this goal and have the expected effect an increase
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: in the level on the old Danube and further to
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: the Chernavoda nuclear power plant.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: In Hungary, the Danube has fallen to its lowest level
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: on record, leaving the country's main nuclear power plant at
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: Paks close to a complete shut down. The plant normally
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: provides almost half of Hungary's electricity, but without enough river
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: water to cool its reactors, it is now producing only
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: a fraction of its usual power. The government has asked
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: factories and households to cut consumption, particularly during the evening peak.
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: Electric freight trains are also being restricted to save power.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Serbia is facing similar pressures as falling river levels reduce
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: hydropower and nuclear generation, Just as another heat wave pushes
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: demand for air conditioning higher, and with little rain in
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the forecast, governments across Central and Eastern Europe are now
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: trying to prevent a shortage from becoming a full scale
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: energy crisis. When I'm joined now by Chris Rosslock. He's
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: a senior Energy analyst for Europe at Ember that's an
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: independent energy think tank. He uses electricity data and energy
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: modeling to track Europe's transition from fossil fuels, and his
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: latest analysis found that solar supplied a record quarter of
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: the European Union's electricity in June. Chris, it's good to
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: have you with us. Let me just ask you, how
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: serious is the immediate risk of electricity shortages across Central
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: and Eastern Europe.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: I think so far this summer, it's obviously been an
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: unprecedented summer for heat waves. The European system has held
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: up relatively well. Obviously, we're now at the end of
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: a very prolonged period of heat and we're seeing an
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: unprecedented situation in terms of the nuclear power reactors in
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Romania and Hungary being being closed down. So I think
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: indeed we are entering quite a serious moment in the summer,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: after a long summer of extreme heats.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: When nuclear and hydropower output falls simultaneously, how much flexibility
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: does I guess the regional electricity system have to replace
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: that lost generation.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I think the interconnectedness of Europe is one of its
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: key strengths when it comes to energy, so that these
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: links between countries are a really important source of resilience
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: at all times of year, but especially at times of
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: year like this, where we have certain power sources in
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: certain regions experiencing trouble. But I think it's worth saying
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: it's not just nuclear and hydropower that kind of experience
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: difficulty in extreme heat, but basically it's only I think
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: it's fair to say only solar power performs relatively well
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: in these conditions, and that for us just underlined the
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: importance of having a diversified mixed financial sources.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: I need to ask you about Hungary's packs planted. I mean,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: it normally provides almost half of the country's electricity. How
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: difficult is it to compensate when a source that importance
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: suddenly loses most of its output. Can you count on
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: other sources such as solar to compensate.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I think Hungary will be relying on imports more than
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: more than usual with the absence of this It's nuclear
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: power plant. Also, I've seen the government is taking the
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: very sensible step to ask its power consumers to consume
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: a bit less, especially over that tight evening period where
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: we see the power market being typically the tightest at
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: times like this. So yeah, it will have to draw
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: on everything everything it can, including into connection, ramping up
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: other sources to get through this period.
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: You know this is happening. It's the beginning of August.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: We've still got quite a bit of summer left. This
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: is happening during a heat wave when demand for air
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: conditioning is rising. How much additional strain is that place
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: on the grid.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: So heat waves actually impact the I would say in
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: three main ways. The first one, as you mentioned, is
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: this higher than expected power demand from air conditioning and fans,
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: et cetera. The second one is that grids themselves actually
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: have thermal limits, and when the temperature is high, we
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: get closer to those thermal limits, which can cause problems
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: and the third main one is that almost every source
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: of power generation struggles in extreme temperatures, with the possible
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: exception of solar, which performs relatively well. So Yeah, the
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: grid praises multiple challenges at times like this for sure.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: And governments are asking households and industry to reduce consumption.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: Are these precautionary measures or are they assigned that the
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: system is already close to its limits.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: I think there are several signs that the system is
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: close to its limits. In parts of Europe, we see
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: the main sign being high prices. We've seen extreme price
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: spikes in the previous seat waves this summer, and we're
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: seeing them again in this latest s heap wave, especially
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: in central and eastern Europe, so the signs are definitely there.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I think the demand shifting is a big unknown, so
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: it could definitely have a meaningful impact on the system.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I think we're still in fairly early days of experimenting
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: with just how much demand realistically can be shifted away
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: from periods of peak consumption, but it would certainly help
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: enormously to avoid even as extreme prices and in the
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: worst case, avoid a blackout.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned that Hungary will be importing a lot
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: more energy. Now, how important are cross border electricity imports
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: in preventing blackouts and what happens when you've got several
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: neighboring countries needing additional power all at the same time.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: M well, luckily in the case of in the case
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: of Hungary, Hungary is one of the most interconnected countries
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: in Europe relative to its own demand. But interconnections are
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: a really important source of resilience for power systems at
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: all times of year. They've prevented more than one blackout
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: in the past in the past few years in Europe.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: You mentioned the issue of sometimes it's not as much
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: help as it could be because neighboring countries maybe experiencing
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: similar similar effects. But the kind of more regional scale,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: they're very, very important because not every country is always
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: impacted by extreme heats, you know, exactly simultaneously. Also, the
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: way that the weather systems work in Europe, it can
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: be maybe windy, you know, one hundred kilometers away, not
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: windy in a certain countries. So these interconnections they help
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: between neighboring countries. Also they help at a regional level
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: to balance the European system. So they're really vital that
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: we certainly need more of them.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: What role could battery storage and other forms of simple
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: generation play during an emergency like we're seeing, So.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: I think there's a there's a highly complementary set of
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: technologies here. So I would say solar, air conditioning and
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: battery storage are a highly complementary trio of technologies, and
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: the hot these heat waves really really highlight that. So
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: during the day, of course, right now, we're getting a
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: lot of generation from solar and a lot of demand
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: for air conditioning, so there's a very high overlap there
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: in terms of that demand and that supply. The problems
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: for power systems tend to come in the evenings where
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: the sun goes down, but the demand for cooling is
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: still there, and this is exactly when more batteries on
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: the system could could come in cover those few hours
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: in the evening where the system gets really tight. We're
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: not yet at the scale of battery storage in Europe
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: whereably seeing that that happen, but certainly that's the theory
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: and this battery investment is coming into Europe now at
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: an increasing rate.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: This crisis, Chris, does it expose in over reliance on
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: large nuclear and hydro elic plants in parts of Central
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: and Eastern Europe.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it exposes an overreliance on any single
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: technology as I was saying before. I think what it
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: really underlines is the importance of having a diversified mix.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: And it reminds us again and we already knew this,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: that the European system now needs more flexibility from different sources.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: So that could be battery storage, that could be more interconnection,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: that could be demand demand shifting like we're seeing in
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the request for in Hungary. So I think the more
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: flexibility for me is the is the main takeaway to
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: ensure delience in the future and for future heat waves.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: All right, Chris russelo Edinburg, good to have you on
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: the program.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: Chris.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: We appreciate your analysis tonight. Thank you, assass