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NFL Week 2 BEST BETS | React to the Overreaction · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Hold on.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: Hold on, not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Let me pull you out.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: That fell apart by.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Its heart But it don't get the crown Hold on,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: hold on Stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you with
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: Toadstool Sports for the NFL Week 2. We went 2-1
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: in Week 1, so I'm going to try to deliver
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: another winning week here, obviously. Week 2, I don't want
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: to jinx anything, but Week 2 historically is one of
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: the better weeks to handicap because there are massive overreactions.
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: Because all you have is one game from every team
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: to go off of, and everybody overreacts to it. So
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: you get... You get to look at the look-ahead lines
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: that were out before the Week 1 games were played,
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: and you can see how the lines shifted just based
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: on what happened in Week 1. And read into it
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: as is appropriate, I guess I would say. Yeah, I mean,
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: let's get right into it, man. Why not try to
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: go through these? This is quicker than the college football show,
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: at least I will tell you that. Carolina-Atlanta is the
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: first game here on the schedule. 1 p.m. on Fox.
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: A lot of Fox games up top here. Big divisional game, really.
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: Not really high on either team this year, but I
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: think Carolina was the team that clearly looked like the
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: better team in the first game, and they are. I mean,
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: they're favored on the road here. Carolina, they lost. They
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: were our one loss last week, and it was, you know,
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to say it was misleading, but they
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: had three turnovers in the game. They got outgained, but
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: it was just, tons of offense on both sides of
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: this game. It was a ridiculous offensive game or very
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: bad defensive game. You might want to look at it
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: that way between Chicago and Carolina, but it's a good
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: looking loss because everybody thinks Chicago is really good. Carolina
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: losing like that while scoring a ton of points, the
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: public will not want to be off of Carolina after
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: a performance like that. And they will not want anything
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: to do with Atlanta here because Atlanta's quarterbacks are all
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: injured and they were complete ass last week against the Steelers.
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: This is a game that had no offense, no offense,
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: but neither team really did anything on offense. Atlanta kind
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: of threw the game away with turnovers as well. The
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh was the slightly better team in the game. It
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: was an ugly, ugly game. TJ Watt had an interception
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: return that really changed the game. And it was just
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: a horrific play by Cooper Rush there. I don't know
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: what Rush is doing, and I believe he is going
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: to be the quarterback again. Penix is hurt, and Tua is,
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: I guess, hurt, but he sucks. Dude, I'm going to
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: tell you, Atlanta, I mean, they just got to go
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: to Strand. I'm sorry, but Cooper Rush, he's not going
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: to get you anywhere. Like, what are you trying to
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: do here? Like, just stave off elimination, you know what
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: I mean? Like, Cooper Rush is a mediocre quarterback. backup
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: quarterback basically like he's not gonna win you games like
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: he's out there to basically not lose you games and
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: he lost you the game last week so what are
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: we doing here see what if you're atlanta fuck it
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: you have nothing to lose this season i think you're
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: gonna come in last place in the division just use
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: strand that's what i would say i think he might
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: actually be good uh if my quarterback analysis skills are
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: actually on but all that being said i think i
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: would lean atlanta in this game i mean it is
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: monstrously ugly but In week two, you want to fade
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: the teams that looked too good in week one. You
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: want to play on the teams that looked bad, and
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: Atlanta was definitely the team that looked worse. The look
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: ahead on this game was, let me see. Of course,
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: the look ahead didn't help us on the Thursday night game,
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: which was three, and then the Bills were a four-and-a-half
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: point favorite, and they covered anyway. The look ahead on
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: this game was a one-and-a-half on the Panthers, so it
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: has gone up a little bit just because of last
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: week's results. It is up to about two and a
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: half here. They're very public, 84% of tickets and cash.
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: I don't have a strong opinion on this one at all.
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: It's a somewhat low total, though, which is kind of interesting.
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: 43 and a half, so the output offensively is expected
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: to be a lot less in this game than it
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: was in Carolina's first game. Is Atlanta's defense that good?
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: I don't know, but you know what Atlanta's going to do.
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: They're going to run the ball with Robinson, and that
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: might make their offense one-dimensional, which would worry me, but
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: I think I'm going to lean Atlanta in this game.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: At least for now, that would be the fade of
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: the public in that game, at least. Both teams will
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: show up for it because it's a divisional game. Divisional
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: home underdogs, I believe, have at least a decent hit rate.
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: When I have nothing else to go on, that's my
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: lean there. Another divisional game, Minnesota and Chicago. Chicago, of course...
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: They continue to be massively hyped. Oh, my God, this
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: offense is insane. They had four rushing touchdowns. I think
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: two of them were Caleb Williams. I'm still not sold.
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: I'm sorry. I don't think Williams is that good. His
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: completion percentage last year wasn't really that good. Chicago won
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: a lot of games that they pulled out of their
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: ass last year. Beating Carolina, whatever, man. It really doesn't
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: impress me that much. Minnesota should at least be a
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: better defense that they have to go up against here.
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: rather than Carolina although I don't really love the spot
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: that Minnesota's in I mean they're coming off a big
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: win over the Packers they have to play two divisional
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: games in a row that was at home and this
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: was a misleading result man Minnesota outscored the Packers 22
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: to nothing in the fourth quarter that's not what is
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: misleading about it although yeah Green Bay was beating them
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: 22 to 10 in the third quarter and looking like
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: they're well on their way to a win What's misleading
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: about it is Green Bay outgained Minnesota by almost 200
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: yards in this game, and somehow Minnesota won the game
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: by 17 points. It's a bullshit result. The scoreboard does
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: not tell you anything about what actually happened in this game.
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: So normally when I see something like that, and it
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: was a big divisional win for Minnesota, and misleading, I'd
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: be looking to fade Minnesota here, but I think Chicago
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: is a team that you want to fade this week
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: as well, so... This game is not going to be
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: a play for me at all, but I think I
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: would just lean to the divisional dog here towards Minnesota.
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: It is going to be Carson Wentz again. As we know,
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: Minnesota basically, they don't have a quarterback right now pretty
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: much because Kyler Murray got hurt last week, and Carson
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: Wentz still won them the game. I don't know if
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: he won them the game. Maybe Green Bay kind of
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: threw the game away to them, but it will be
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: Carson Wentz, but That actually makes me like Minnesota a
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: little bit more because what's one thing that I talk
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: about on this show? The injured player theory. And when
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: your team's quarterback goes down, and I know it happened
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: early last week, but the first game that that backup starts,
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: a lot of times that team puts in a huge effort,
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: and you know they will because it's a big game
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: anyway at Chicago, but usually you get extra line value
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: because the line usually over-adjusts to that quarterback injury. I
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: think that might be what you're seeing here, because I
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: think Kyler Murray does get some respect in the market.
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: So the look ahead on this game was Bears minus three,
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: and now you're looking at a five and a half.
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: So some of that's an overreaction to last week a
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: little bit, but I think most of it is because
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: of the quarterback change. And the line is actually down
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: from five and a half to four and a half
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: right now, but at least it didn't go through a
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: key number or anything. But yes, I would have a
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: slight lean towards the Vikings in this one, plus the points.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's at least an experienced quarterback, and he
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: played last year, too, and he had some– I think
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: he was at least decent in some games last year.
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: Although I remember we faded him with the Chargers, though,
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: and I think he got injured in that game and
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: got knocked out, but whatever. And we won that game
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: easily on one of my Thursday night games. 74% of tickets,
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: 64% of the cash on the Bears, so the Bears
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: are definitely a public side here. I would, again, lean
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: against the public in that one. That would be my
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: opinion there. BC, what's up, man? Underdog to make it
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: deep into the playoffs. You mean in the NFL? Define underdog,
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: I guess would be... How are we defining underdog? Because
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: every team is an underdog against the field. But you
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: mean not the popular opinions, basically? I was pretty much saying...
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs, although people are going to be more...
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: inclined to actually want to take them after what they
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: looked like on Monday night. But before the season started,
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: I said I thought the Chiefs were very undervalued. I
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: thought Detroit was pretty undervalued, although they haven't looked great
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: so far, but they're 1-1, and you don't really necessarily
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: expect them to win on a short week in Buffalo necessarily,
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: even though, yes, I did think they would cover that game.
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, Cincinnati, could be one of
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: those teams like they might be able to get through
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: like the AFC you know what I mean just if
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: their offense stays healthy enough and then I don't know
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: man like I don't like that many teams in the
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: NFC as far as like oh yeah like this team
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: is like an honor like I thought the Rams would
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: be the team would still win the NFC even though
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: that was kind of a that was the hyped, uh, team,
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean? And now they already lost
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: the miles Garrett, but they, well, I'll talk about the
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: Rams when I get to it, but I think the Rams,
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: they're not as bad as they looked in week one.
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: I will, I will tell you that much. Although I
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: would say the 49ers, uh, were another team that I
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: thought would bounce back from a bad, like, well, not
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: really a bad season, but maybe if they could stay healthy,
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: they should have a little bit of an improvement this
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: year as well. Uh, so the 49ers maybe, um, I
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: know none of those teams are really teams that people
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: consider to be bad. I don't think some team that
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: we consider to be bad is going to make some run.
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: I would say maybe the Saints, although I think the
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: Saints will make the playoffs. I think they're going to
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: win their division, but I think if they do, they
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: might kind of be like a one and done. So
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: they were kind of my real kind of crazy pick
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: to make the playoffs, if you want to call it that,
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: although that division is so bad that I don't think
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: it's that crazy. And the Saints looked pretty good in
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: their first game. Um, no, I mean, I, I just don't,
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: I don't think any ass team is going to pull
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: it out of their ass. You know what I mean? Uh,
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: like I think it's going to be some at least
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: like decent team that's going to rise up and be
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: able to do it. Like I'm more inclined to say
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: that there are certain, like, uh, I'm more inclined to
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: say there are certain teams that people think are really
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: good that might not even make the playoffs. Like, the
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: Patriots and Seattle. Like, I think they might both miss
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. So, like, I have some crazy opinions like that, maybe. Although,
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: I do think Seattle might be 2-0 here to start
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: the season. Anyway, Philadelphia, Tennessee. This one almost made my card. Like,
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: if I was going to add another play, it would
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: be in this game. And it is an insane play
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: that nobody's going to want. But I like Tennessee in
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: this game. And you know... Man, I mean, it is
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: so close to being a play for me because this
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: is a low total, too. So taking the home underdog
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: in this one looks really good to me. Tennessee, nobody's
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: going to want them. I mean, they lost to the
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: Jets at home in their opener, so everybody thinks that's bad. But,
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: you know, I said I thought the Jets would be
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: better than they were last year. I think the Jets,
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean, last year they had no interceptions
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: on defense and whatever. I mean, it was kind of
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: a crazy outlier season where they should have won a
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: couple more games than they did at least. So I
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: don't think the Jets are that bad. I'm not going
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: to knock Tennessee that much for that, but you know
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: Tennessee's going to get up for this game against the Eagles,
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: and I think it's a bad spot for the Eagles.
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: Tennessee's staying at home. The Eagles just won a divisional
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: game against Washington. My one concern with the Eagles would
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: be that they almost lost that game, even though they're
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: like a five-point favorite. The Eagles should have won that
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: game more easily, though, I would say. They're winning the
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: game by more points. I mean, they were up eight late,
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: and then there was the Washington late touchdown. But then
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: Philly did kind of get a shock there, though, because
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: they had to avoid a two-point conversion attempt from Washington
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: that would have tied the game at the end there.
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: Philly was the better team, but only slightly. But still,
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: I think that's a big divisional battle, man. And then
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: who does Philly have next, by the way? Oh, yeah,
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: they got the Bears next, and then the Rams. So
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: this Titans game is the game that means the least
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: to them, and it's also an out-of-conference road game. And
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: you know I always mention this. That's the game that
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: means the least on a team's schedule because it's the
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: last on the list in tiebreakers. The road out-of-conference game
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: means the least to a team, even though I'm going
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: to go against that and play a team that's in
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: one of those spots, but as an underdog.
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Philly.
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: I do not think you want to be laying points
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: with them here. I think Tennessee is absolutely the right
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: side here. Next up, Philly has the Bears, as I
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: was saying. That's a revenge game, because if you remember,
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: Philly was a home favorite against the Bears last year,
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: and that was during that run where the Bears just
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: kept winning, and I didn't know how they were doing it,
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: and it was a Black Friday game, I'm pretty sure.
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: So it was like this huge publicized game, and Philly
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: kind of got embarrassed in that game and lost as
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: a big favorite, if you guys remember that. So I
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: think Philly is going to, Have this Bears game circled, man.
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: It's a much bigger game. I could see Philly looking
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: right past Tennessee here. And Tennessee, you know they're going
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: to get up for this game. So this game, yeah,
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: this is going to make my pick five entry at
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: the very least. very close to making the cut for me.
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: Philly is an insanely public side, 93% of the tickets,
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: 91% of the cash on them, the money coming in
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: on the under, and we have a low, low total.
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: Like I said, 39 at this point, although some of
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: that has to do with Tennessee's offense being garbage, but
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: Philly's offense wasn't very good last week either. So I
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: could see this being a low scoring battle, Tennessee plus seven,
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: you get seven everywhere right now. Like sevens are everywhere. Um,
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: You could even probably wait and maybe even get a 7.5
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: on this. That's how public Philadelphia is right now. So
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: I might not even take it right now. I might
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: just wait. You're going to get a 7 at worst
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: probably on Tennessee. So yeah, that's definitely the way I
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: would play that game is to take Tennessee plus the
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: points in that one. And as I should point out,
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: I think I already did point it out, but playing
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: 0-1 teams to cover against 1-0 teams is also a
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: winning strategy. Bet long term in week two. And I
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: think in week three, when you have two and O
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: versus O and two, it's like the same thing. You
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: want to play on those winless teams against the teams
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: that haven't lost yet in these early season matchups because
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: people are overreacting to the small sample size they've seen
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: so far. The one CBS game that we have at
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: 1 p.m. here, well, there are a few, but the
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: first one, Pittsburgh at New England. I've heard some professional
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: opinions on the Pittsburgh side here, but I don't really
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: agree with that. I think the spot's better for New England,
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: even though they're coming off the big Super Bowl revenge game.
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: So you might say, well, they're going to be in
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: a flat spot here because they're coming off that Super
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: Bowl revenge game where they blew the 10-0 lead against
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: the Seahawks. Yeah, but the way that I look at
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: it is, That was an ugly-looking game, man. The Patriots
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: did not look good in that game, losing a low-scoring
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: game like that. And they lost to a backup quarterback,
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: if you remember. Sam Darnold was out of that game early,
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: and Drew Locke was the winning quarterback in that game.
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: So people, I think, are not going to be high
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: on the Patriots after a game like that. Now they're
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: coming back home. They're going to play the Steelers here.
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: Steelers did not look good in Week 1. And by
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: the way, the Steelers are a 1-0 team. Patriots are 0-1,
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: yet the Patriots are laying like 5.5 points here. So
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: what gives, right? The public, I think, is going to
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: be looking at this and thinking, why would I lay
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: that many points with an 0-1 team right now that
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: couldn't score, basically? So the public, to me, it looks
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: like they're not really on New England here. Like 67%
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: of the tickets are on New England, but 86% of
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: the cash on New England for now. That is a
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: pretty big gap that makes me think the money really
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: is on New England here. I'm agreeing with that for now.
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: The Patriots do have extra time off because they played
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: on Wednesday in that game against Seattle. So New England
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: has a bunch of extra rest here, which I think
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: should help them overcome any, oh, there might be a
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: hangover spot of a big game, whatever. It was a
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: bad effort still. They lost the game. So I think...
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: The rest should help New England. Pittsburgh's on the shore
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: to turn around time. Pittsburgh does have a divisional game
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: next against the Bengals, by the way, so that might
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: be a look-ahead spot for Pittsburgh to a bigger game
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: there against the Bengals. And I believe this is— I don't
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: want to call it revenge necessarily, but I believe the
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: Patriots lost in a very misleading result last year against Pittsburgh,
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: if I remember correctly. Yeah, New England lost at home here, which,
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: by the way— Aside from the Buffalo loss New England
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: took late in the season, that was the only other
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: loss the Patriots had taken at home since week one
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: last year against Las Vegas. So since they lost at
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: home to Pittsburgh, they had not lost a home game.
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: except for the Buffalo game since then. So I think
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: the Patriots are going to remember that because they only
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: had a few losses last year. They're going to remember
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: they lost here at home to Pittsburgh, and you know
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: they're going to make adjustments to try to fix what
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: went wrong there, although Pittsburgh's got a new coach here now.
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: They got Mike McCarthy, so Pittsburgh is going to have
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: a different look to their offense here this time. But
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: if you look at what happened in that game last year,
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: this is an extremely misleading result. The Patriots had five
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: turnovers in the game, They dominated the game. They won
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: the time of possession. They won the first down battle
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: by quite a bit. They won the yardage battle by
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: almost 170 yards, basically. The Patriots should not have lost
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: this game, yet they did. So people, if they look
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: at that last year, they might draw the wrong conclusions
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: from it. It was a very misleading result. So I
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: don't know if that is going to have a huge
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: factor here, but yeah, I'm going to lean New England
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: and laying the points with New England in this one.
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: All right. The next game is Green Bay and New York.
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: I struggle with this one because, you know me, I
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: like to take these home underdogs, and it's an out-of-conference
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: road game for Green Bay, right? Like I just said,
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: those games mean the least on your schedule. However, Green
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: Bay's an 0-1 team. The Jets are 1-0. So, I mean,
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: the public is still on Green Bay in this game, though. Like,
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: they're actually still laying the points with Green Bay, even
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: though they're an 0-1 road team here because the public
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: still thinks the Jets are ass. They don't care that
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: the Jets beat the Titans. And yes, it is true
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: that Green Bay is coming up a much bigger game
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: against the Vikings, but I don't know, man. Something tells
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: me that Green Bay might be kind of in bounce
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: back mode. Green Bay was... like I said, so much
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: better than the Vikings in this game. It was an
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: unbelievably misleading result. So this is a game where I
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: think Green Bay is actually going to show up focused
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: coming off a loss like that. I think they will
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: actually show up where normally they might not. I think
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: they actually will. For this game against the Jets. And
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: if Green Bay is actually going to be focused. I
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: think they should get the job done here. Yeah it's
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: the Jets home opener. But you know. Green Bay is
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: still the better team. I think it just depends on
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: how focused are they. Now the money doesn't agree on this.
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: 69% of the tickets. And 58% of the cash on
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: Green Bay. So the money is fading them. But I
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: think I'm going to lean laying the points with Green Bay.
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: They're about 3.5-3 here. I keep forgetting to look at
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: the look-aheads. The look-ahead on this game, by the way,
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: was Green Bay 5.5. So I think you're getting some
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: value on Green Bay based on that at least. They
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: were going to be a 5.5-point favorite, and I don't
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: think there are any really significant injuries here. I mean,
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: we already know Josh Jacobs is out. By the way,
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: for the Patriots, A.J. Brown is going to be out
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: for like four weeks, I think, so keep that in mind.
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: They lost their top wide receiver, but I still like
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: the Patriots. Steelers lost Michael Pittman, though. So something to
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: be aware of. Michael Pittman is not going to play
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: tomorrow in the game against the Patriots. And the Steelers,
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: I think, have some other injuries going on there, too.
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: And yes, the Packers do not have Josh Jacobs right now.
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: He's on my fantasy team waiting for him to come back, man,
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: from being exempt from the league right now because of
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: assault or whatever. But we'll see if he comes back. Still,
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: I think I kind of lean backers in that one.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: And by the way, the Eagles look ahead was five
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: and a half, and now that line's on that key
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: number seven. So that line has overreacted to last week.
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: So I think you are definitely getting line value on
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: the Titans based on the look ahead. That line has moved. Yeah.
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: All right. So, yeah, I think that's all I got
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: here on these. What was the New England line? New
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: England was four and a half, and now they're five
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: and a half. Really, they're actually kind of four and
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: a half against. That line hasn't really moved from the
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: look ahead. No real huge reaction to what happened last week.
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: All right, Cleveland and Tampa Bay. I think Tampa Bay
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: is going to be my survivor pick here. I know
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: picking against Cleveland again, but Tampa Bay is a big
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: favorite here. You got to think they're going to get
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: the job done here, at least in win. I don't
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: know about covering, but they better just at least get
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: out of here with a win, man, because they're an
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: 0-1 team here. They are the better team, and I
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: know Tampa Bay is one of the public picks this week,
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: so that's not great, but Jacksonville was last week, and
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: I used them because I'm trying to weigh everything, and
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: the future value is not strong for Tampa Bay. The
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: other games are going to be a decent-sized favorite or
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: home divisional games, and I don't really love that for Survivor.
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: Those tend to be battles, so I think this is
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: probably the week where we have to use Tampa Bay
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: and just hope they get it done here. cleveland cleveland
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: looks terrible though and i don't like what's coming out
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: of their coach they have a new coach there the
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: stuff that he's saying about the quarterback battle doesn't make
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: any sense to me it's a second straight road game
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: for them although at least for them they're staying in
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: florida because they were in jacksonville so at least cleveland
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: the travel spot's not that bad for them buccaneers are
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: coming in from cincinnati and the bucks do uh I
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: think the game was a little bit misleading, I would say.
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: So at Cincinnati, they lost by six. Now, Cincinnati did
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: out-game them, though, by about 70 yards. So Cincinnati did
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: win the game yardage-wise. But Tampa Bay also had a
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: ton of turnovers. They had four turnovers in the game.
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: So that made that result maybe a little bit misleading,
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: even though the yardage differential does kind of tell you
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: that Cincinnati kind of won that game legitimately. But Tampa Bay,
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: you got to think they're going to clean up those mistakes.
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? Coming into this game, do
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: I think Tampa Bay is going to cover? I'm not
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: so sure. I mean, nobody's going to want Cleveland here.
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: So Tampa Bay is going to be public. 86% of tickets,
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: 88% of the cash. And then they're laying eight and
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: a half. And you know the look ahead was definitely
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: not that high. The look ahead was six and a half.
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: So that number has gone through that key number seven
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: just because of what we saw last week. Now, is
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield going to be extra motivated to play against
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: his former team? I don't know. I mean, he's probably
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: played against Cleveland since then because he's been on Tampa
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: Bay for years now, so I don't think he cares
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: that much. But Tampa's 0-1. They've got to get a
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: win here. They are the better team. I think they'll win,
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: but I don't know. I might have to lean towards
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: Cleveland to cover here. As bad as that seems, it's
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: just nobody wants Cleveland, man. And the public is... Definitely
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: going to want no part of it. And the total
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: is pretty low at 41 and a half here. It's
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: gone up a little bit though, which I played a
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: low total game with Jacksonville and survivor last week as well, though.
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: And it's because Cleveland can't score. I mean, that's really
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: the reason why I did have Cleveland in my pickums
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: last week, but not for any of the like pick
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: fives or whatever, just the one where you have to
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: pick like every game. Maybe Cleveland does hang around and
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: hang within this number, man. I mean, you know, I
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: don't think Tampa Bay is that good either. So, I
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: might lean Cleveland slightly against the spread, but Tampa Bay
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: just better get it done for me survivor-wise, man. That
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: game is not a game that I have a good
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: read on. Out of the games so far, love Tennessee
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: almost enough to put it on my card. I really
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: like Tennessee. Second strongest so far, probably New England, which
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: sounds kind of ugly, but I do have three plays
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: this week, but they're all in the later games, and
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: two of them are in the primetime games. New Orleans
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: and Baltimore. also at 1 p.m., CBS game here. Baltimore
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: looked really good. They annihilated the Colts, my Colts, in
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: week one, and it was not misleading. Baltimore destroyed the
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: Colts yardage-wise in that game. It was not close at all.
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: Derrick Henry lit it up for my fantasy team. Don't
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: know if Baltimore's going to have as much success here
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: against the Saints, though. The Saints are actually not that
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: bad of a defense, although the Saints... Didn't look like
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: they were that good defensively last week. However, the Saints
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: did put on a good defensive performance in the second
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: half of that game. Remember, that game went into overtime
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: against the Lions, so that game was 24-24 at the
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: end of regulation, so it wasn't that high scoring. But
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I like the Saints' spot here, man,
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: because that was a huge game for the Saints. It
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: was an NFC battle against the Lions, and the Saints
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: almost were able to steal that game. They made a
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: huge comeback. In the second half, they were down 21 points,
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: came all the way back, sent it to overtime, and
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: then they tried the two-point conversion to win the game, which,
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: like I said, I like that decision to go for two.
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: I just did not like the play call that they ran.
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? When you're on the road
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: against a superior team, and I believe NFL games in
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: the regular season can still end in ties. I think
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: we had a Green Bay-Dallas one last year maybe. So
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: I like it. Don't play for the ties. You know
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: what I mean? The tie is a cop-out. Go for
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: the win. The problem was the play call wasn't good.
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: But I think New Orleans might be a little bit
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: flat after that, to be honest. So New Orleans seems
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: like they're in the slightly worse spot to me here,
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: even though I know New Orleans is an 0-1 team.
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: The Ravens are 1-0. Normally I'd be looking towards the
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: underdog here, but I don't know. I think maybe the
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: favorite is the right side here. It'll be Baltimore's first
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: home game under their new coach, Minter. Um, And Baltimore,
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: their offense was humming in that last game against the Colts,
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: so they did not look like they had any problems.
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: The money is coming in against them, although Baltimore's not
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: a heavy public side, though. 59% of the tickets, 55%
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them, minus 8.5 is the number.
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: The value is not necessarily there, but the Ravens were
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: a 7.5 on the look ahead, so the line has
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: only moved up to 8.5. That did not go through
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: a key number, so that's not really much of a move. Um,
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: some of it might be to kind of start killing teasers.
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? Um, like some of the
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: books might wind up in a nine on this because
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: I think Baltimore might be one of the teaser plays
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: this week. You know what I mean? So like, uh,
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: the recreational guys might tease them on like a six
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: point teaser. They'll try to tease them down to three
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: or something like that. Whereas, uh, I haven't talked about
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: teasers yet this year in the NFL, but The only
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: time that teasers are ever advantageous is if you do
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: a two-team six-point teaser in the NFL specifically, specifically a
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: Stanford Wong teaser, which means that you're going through both
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: key numbers of seven and three. So specifically, you need
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: a line that's seven and a half, eight or eight
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: and a half, specifically just those three numbers on a favorite,
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: and you're going to tease them down to below the
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: field goal. So you get through those key numbers, or
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: you have an underdog that's one and a half, two
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: or two and a half, and you get to tease
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: them up above the seven and a half. Those are
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: the only options that are actually plus EV, and you
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: have to get charged the right price for it. It
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: has to be, I believe, minus $ 130 or less that
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: you have to pay for that teaser. Bookmakers know it, too,
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: so they charge you $ 130 now, where I believe they
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: used to charge you $ 120 for it, so there's not
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: as much value to be had there. But those are
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: the only plus expected value teasers there. Period. That you
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: can play, I believe, in any sport. And it's because
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: NFL games, the lines are just so tight in the NFL.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: That's why. And if you listen to some of the
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: professionals like Ace, Vegas Runner on this, Yanni the Greek,
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: he'll tell you that you actually want to wait until
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: right before kickoff, the closing number, which is the most
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: accurate number, and tease those numbers. Because then you're getting, theoretically,
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: the most expected value because the number has been the
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: number is the closest to the real number, basically. You
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? After all the money... has come
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: in told the bookmakers all the info that they need
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: pretty much so but what I was talking about is
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: teaser killers so what the books will do if they
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: have a favorite that's going to be somewhere in that
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: neighborhood 7, 7.5 if they're worried about the teasers they
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: might push that number up to 8.5 or 9 really
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: to 9 because then You can only tease it down
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: with a six-point teaser to a three, and the whole
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: goal is to get it below three. So if you
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: see something like that, a lot of times the favorite
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: actually might be the right side, because the oddsmakers actually
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: are kind of worried about people teasing it down. But
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: if you see a number like Philadelphia, where it's seven,
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: and the bookmakers have not teaser killed that thing, and
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: you have a massive amount of the public on Philadelphia,
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: 93% of the cash on them, and yet... The oddsmakers
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: haven't moved the number, except I think it might have
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: been six and a half for a little while. Now
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: it's seven. They have not moved it to a teaser kill,
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: and you know Philadelphia is going to be a very
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: popular teaser just to get Philadelphia to win the game,
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: but the oddsmakers not moving it up to the teaser
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: killer number, that tells you they're not as concerned about
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: doing that in that game. So they actually think there's
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: a decent shot that Philadelphia actually loses the game outright.
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: That's what the oddsmakers are telling you there. So that's
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: how to read into what the books do around that
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: number seven specifically in the NFL specifically as far as teasers.
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think I slightly lean the Ravens in
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: that game against the Saints. All right. Cincinnati and Houston.
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: This game is one of the ones that I struggle
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: the most with because Houston's the better defense. So I
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: do like the better defense against the offense that's usually
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: a hyped offense but neither team won last week and
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: Houston looked really good in a loss last week huge
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: game against the Bills and the way Houston lost that
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: game was brutal dude if you didn't see it I
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: talked about it after that game happened Josh Allen basically
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: threw an interception in the end zone and Houston dropped
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: it and gave and gave Buffalo another chance and then
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: Buffalo wound up winning the game on a touchdown after
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: Houston had a slim lead right near the end of
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: the game brutal way to lose, so in my opinion,
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: it might be difficult for Houston to get up after
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: that game, and Houston does have a divisional game next
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: against the Colts, so I don't know if it's possible,
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: maybe they think that game's a little bit bigger than that,
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: so I kind of like the Bengals in this game,
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: the Bengals lost to the Buccaneers, like I said, now
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: they're going out on the road, or, oh no, the Bengals,
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: excuse me, won against the Buccaneers, excuse me, but they
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: they did so, you know, by capitalizing on turnovers, but
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Like I said, I'm not sure it
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: was that misleading because they still won the yardage battle, whatever.
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: And I think Cincinnati, people are still remembering like last year.
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: Oh yeah. Like since, you know, Cincinnati hasn't been good
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: for a couple of years now, but yeah, it's because
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: borrow was hurt for all those games, but he's not
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: hurt right now. He's playing. Although actually I take that back.
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: He actually is hurt right now. He has like back
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: tightness or something, but I think he's playing anyway. Like
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure he's, He's definitely playing because the line
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: has not moved in any significant fashion to indicate that
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: he's not. It looks like the market read is saying Houston, though.
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: 57% of the tickets, 68% of the cash on Houston
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: at minus two and a half here. I was a
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: little bit high on both these teams this year. Normally,
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: I do like the better defense, but it's Houston in
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: kind of a tough spot after what happened last week
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: and laying points here. although really they can't afford to
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: lose two straight home games like this. But I think
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: that's kind of what people are going to say. Houston
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: can't lose two games in a row at home. You
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? Houston's game in game one was
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: way more impressive, right? Like in the public eye, Cincinnati
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: beating Tampa Bay is like kind of whatever. Like it
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: was expected. Houston playing really, really close high scoring against Buffalo.
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: That's a really good looking loss for Houston. You know
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: what I mean? So my instinct here is telling me
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati is but the money is kind of disagreeing with that.
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: We'll see where I land in the pick-ems, but that
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: is not a game I have a strong opinion on. Now,
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: a lot of the rest of these games I do
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: have a stronger opinion on, though. Starting with Jacksonville and
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: Denver on CBS, I like Denver in this game, and
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: a lot of it is because of what we just saw. Yes,
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: Denver's on a short week. I get it. They're traveling
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: back from Kansas City, but they're used to a travel
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: spot like that because... it's a divisional game that they
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: played against the chiefs. You know, they're familiar with it.
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: They're familiar with coming back home from that. So I'm
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: not worried about that. What I'm looking at is the
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: fact that Denver looked awful on Monday night. And when
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: you have a team that looked that bad in a
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: primetime game that everybody watched, nobody wants them the next week.
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: And I think that's where you want to jump on
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: them because you'll actually get a little bit of value
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: playing that team. So I like Denver. Even though I'm
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: not high on Denver this year, I'm also not really
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: high on Jacksonville this year. But what did Jacksonville do
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: last week? They beat Cleveland? Okay. What does that tell us?
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: Absolutely nothing. Yeah, Denver played a more difficult opponent, that's
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: for sure. Denver's way more battle-tested after that game, and
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: they got totally embarrassed. So I think Denver's showing up
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: for this one. I think Denver's going to get the
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: win here. I think I would lay the points if
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: I was going to play this game. It's not going
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: to be on my card, but this one might be
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: the last one I put on my pick five, maybe. Um,
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: now if we remember, by the way, this is also revenge.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: If you remember, if Denver cares about that, Denver got
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: embarrassed here last year, uh, at home against, um, the
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: Jags last year. They didn't have many home losses. They
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: lost in the playoffs at home to New England, but
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: that was without Bo Nix, if you remember. Stidham played.
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: We did get a win with Denver covering, where I
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: thought the line massively overreacted. It was that weird snow game, whatever.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: Neither team did well offensively in that game. But we
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: got a win with Denver plus the points in that one.
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: But anyway, aside from that game, the only other home
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: game Denver lost, the only regular season home loss Denver
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: had all of last year was to Jacksonville. And they
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: lost by 14 points. And I believe I was definitely
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: at least leaning Jacksonville. It might have been one of
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: my plays because that was a huge look ahead spot
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: for Denver because look at what they had next. Even
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: though Mahomes was out by then. I'm pretty sure. Maybe
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: Mahomes got... Was Mahomes out by then? I think he was.
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong about that. But Denver's next game was
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: against Kansas City. Yeah, Mahomes didn't play in that game.
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: It was still a huge game on Christmas for Denver
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: at Kansas City, though. You know what I mean? So
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: Denver had a huge look ahead with a really quick
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: turnaround time. So they got caught in a really bad
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: spot by Jacksonville. They were coming off kind of a
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: big comeback against Green Bay the week before that. so
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: it was an explainable loss kind of for Denver there.
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: Cause it was a bad spot. And yeah, Jacksonville went
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: in there and they lit it up. They put up
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: a bunch of points, but you gotta think Denver's going
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: to remember that because that was their only regular season
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: loss last year. It was a bad spot. I think
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: they're going to have something to say about that. And
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: they're going to play a much better game this time.
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: I like Denver in this one. Um, What's the market
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: looking like? Jacksonville might wind up being a public underdog,
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: and you know I warn about public underdogs. It's kind
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: of a red flag when the public is all on
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: one side, and that side's not even supposed to win
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: the game, especially with a low number like this, where
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: basically if Denver wins, they're probably going to cover. They're
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: minus three basically right now, or two and a half
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: in some places, although we have 60% of tickets, 70%
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Jacksonville for now, so it looks
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: like some of the money is on that side. I'm
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: not sure it's going to wind up that way, but
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: the way that I handicap this stuff, Denver makes the
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: most sense to me. And I like Denver in that game.
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: So that's what I have to say about that. The
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: look ahead, by the way, I think it was right
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: at the same number. The look ahead in the game
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: was three. So there's actually no change in the number, really.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: Maybe a slight drop downward to Denver two and a half.
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: But yeah, so that's what I got on that game.
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: But I still like Denver in that game. Vegas and
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: the Chargers. Now, this line may have overreacted. The Chargers
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: were going to be an eight and a half point
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: favor here against the Raiders. But we know what the
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: Chargers did last week or didn't do. What they didn't
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: do was beat the Arizona Cardinals and it knocked a
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: bunch of people out of Survivor. Not me. But. Usually
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: when that happens, that team bounces back, okay? Like the
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: Chargers are at home here. They're staying at home. They
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: had an embarrassing loss in week one as a double-digit favorite.
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: They lost to Arizona. Usually a team like that's going
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: to bounce back, especially a well-coached team like the Chargers.
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: So I do like the Chargers to get this thing done. Yeah,
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: Vegas won their first game. They beat Miami. But now
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: you're looking at Vegas 1-0 against the Chargers 0-1, and
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: yet the Chargers are laying 6.5 here. But I like
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: the Chargers in this one, man. And the Chargers are
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: not that public because the public is hesitant to want
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: to play them after the public got killed by the
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: Chargers last week. So the public is not really that
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: heavy on the Chargers this time. So I'm not as
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: worried because the books haven't really moved this thing off
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: of six and a half. And normally that would worry
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: me because it looks way too inviting to play the Chargers, right?
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: And below a touchdown. But I think it's value. Like
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: I said, the Chargers were going to be 8.5 in
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: this game. Now, yes, the line may have moved a
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: little bit because Ladd McConkie is going to be out
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: in this game. So the Chargers do have some injuries
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: going on here. But even given that, I still think
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: the Chargers should get this done. The Raiders are still
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: not a good team. They're still in a rebuild mode here.
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: The Chargers got totally embarrassed in the first game. Vegas, yeah, again,
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: they beat Miami, but Miami might be the worst team
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: in the league. So I don't really care that much
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: about that. And it was kind of a close game statistically.
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: Now it's an easy travel spot for Vegas, but nonetheless,
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: I think taking the value of the Chargers and laying
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: the points below a touchdown is the way to play this.
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: 61% of tickets, 74% of the cash on the Chargers.
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: The money seems to agree with that one. That's what
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: I would do if I was going to play it.
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: I would lay the points with the Chargers there. Washington
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: and Dallas. Dallas is on a little bit of a
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: short turnaround time because they did play in New York
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: on Sunday night, but they lost. And that game seems
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: to have skewed perception a little bit because Dallas was
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: the favorite in the game. The public was on Dallas
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: in that game. And what happened? Well, of course, the
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: home underdog wound up winning the game, the Giants. And
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: I did have them as a pick in my pool
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: and in my money pick five, but it was not
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: a play on my card. But after that, I think
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: Dallas may be a little bit underrated coming into this one, man. Yeah,
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: Dallas' defense isn't very good. I get it. But they
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: still have a really, really potent offense, man. And they're
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: going up against Washington. Washington is not a good defense.
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: So one other way to look at this game, you
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: might be able to play the over in this game, too,
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: because you're looking at just two bad defenses, man. Although
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: I would hesitate a little bit because divisional matchups like this,
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: the teams know each other, so they kind of know
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: Each team knows what the other team's going to call,
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean? And neither team has changed
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: their coach or anything like that. So that makes it
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: easier for the defenses to predict what the offenses are
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: going to do when you're familiar. So a lot of
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: times divisional matchups go under. And plus... It's also because
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: teams just play more focused defense because it's usually a
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: bigger game. Now, I think Washington is in the worst
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: spot here, though. Coming off that big game against the
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: Eagles where they almost pulled off the road upset. Second
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: straight road game now. Both teams coming down from the
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: Northeast here, but that was a big game for Washington.
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: They could have had the game if they got the
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: two-point conversion there. Fell just short. Meanwhile, the Cowboys might
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: be in a little bit of a bounce-back mode. And
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: everybody saw the Cowboys not look very good on Sunday night.
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: So I like the Cowboys in this game. Let me see.
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: The money seems like it agrees. 60% of the tickets
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: are on Dallas. Dallas tends to be a public side
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: most of the time, even though they're not that good
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: right now. 71% of the cash on Dallas as well.
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: Dallas is up to a four-point favorite at some shops, though.
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: It looks like it's four. The majority of the numbers
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: are four out there. But the look ahead in this
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: was four and a half. So the number is actually
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: still lower than that. So yeah, maybe a slight amount
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: of value there in the number with Dallas. But yeah,
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: not through a key number or anything, though. But yes,
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: I lean Dallas in that game. I think Washington's too overhyped, man. Still,
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: I think it's like, oh, Jaden Daniels is back. They're
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: going to bounce back. I'm not so sure about that.
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: The oddsmakers are telling you Dallas is the better team.
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: This will be their home opener for the season. I
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: think Dallas' offense is better than Washington's. Possibly their defense
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: might even be as well, just because both these defenses
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: are bad. Anyway, let's get to one of my plays finally. Oh, no, wait. Sorry. No,
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: that's not next. Seattle, Arizona. I keep looking ahead. This
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: is not one of my plays. Seattle, Arizona. But what
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: you will notice in this game is the look ahead
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: is going to be the Seahawks minus 10 at Arizona.
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: And now you see what the line is. Yeah, it's
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: like four, three and a half.
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: Well.
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: Hold on a little bit because obviously that's not just
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: a reaction to, oh my God, Arizona upset the Chargers.
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: So now we're going to move this line seven points. No,
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: obviously this means Sam Darnold is not playing. That is
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: the case. So this is an injured player spot for Seattle,
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: you know, so Drew Locke will be playing. He did
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: win them the game against New England last week. I
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: think I like Seattle in this game, man. They're public,
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: and the money is not agreeing with it, but I
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: like Seattle here. Seattle has extra rest because they played
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: that Wednesday game. They didn't really look good in their
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: win over New England. The public was definitely on Seattle
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: in that one, and they had to overcome a 10-0
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: deficit and barely escape with the win in that game
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: against New England. Now they have extra time off. They're
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: going on the road to a familiar place, to Arizona.
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: Arizona pulled off the big upset in week one against
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: the Chargers that normally will set up a letdown spot
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: now Arizona is not going to overlook Seattle that's the
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: thing that's kind of why I don't really want to
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: do this that in the market read is also saying
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: no as far as Seattle but. Yeah, to me, it's
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: going to be tough for Arizona to put in another
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: effort like that two games in a row, even if
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: they want to, because this would be a big game
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: for them against Seattle. But maybe Arizona doesn't take Seattle
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: as seriously because it's going to be Drew Locke here
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: and not Sam Darnold. And that does give us, I think,
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: line value with Seattle. I don't think Drew Locke is
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: worth a seven-point drop-off, dude. like that's kind of insane.
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: Like no quarterback drop off is really a seven point
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: drop off unless it's like Tom Brady dropping off to
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: some like quarterback that is, you know, like just total trash.
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: Maybe that would warrant it. But, um, you know what
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: I mean? That's not what we have going on here.
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: Drew Locke is a very competent quarterback. He's had a
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: lot of starts in the NFL and he won the
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: game last week. So he's got some confidence right now.
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: So I'm not worried about that for Seattle. I think
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: Seattle should go in there and get the win in
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: this one. Arizona's still not that good of a team,
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: even though, yeah, they got Brissette. He doesn't make mistakes, whatever,
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: but they're still not a very good team. They're still
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: the worst team in that division. I think we will
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: see that come to fruition here. I would lay what
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: I think is kind of a cheap price with Seattle
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: if I was going to play this one at minus
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: four or three and a half there. Not on my
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: card or anything like that, but yeah, I think I...
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: gave out all the info on that, right? Well, and again,
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: I will say, you know, the injured player spot, the
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: team usually steps up their game a little bit when
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: they know that their quarterback is out. Like, in this case,
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: plus the line overreacts. Now, I don't think that normally
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: the line would move seven points for a Darnold to
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: lock drop off. I think the line moved extra because
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: of what these teams did last week, I think. I
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: think Arizona got some credit in the odds maker's eyes
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: by upsetting the Chargers, but... Yeah, I just think that
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: skewed the line a little bit further. Anyway, Miami at
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: San Francisco, this is going to be a play for you. Yeah,
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: you're going to love this one. everybody's going to love
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: this play, man. You know what I'm doing. You know
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: how I do this. We're going to take Miami plus
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: 13 and a half here. Even though I just said
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: they're the worst team in the league. Yeah, they are probably.
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: I don't care. Maybe Cleveland is, but still, I don't care.
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: This is all about the spot. We were on San
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: Francisco last week in what I thought was a spot
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: to play them because what did I say about that
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: San Francisco game against the Rams? This is going to
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: come into my handicap for both of their games this week.
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: They went to Australia on Thursday. So yeah, San Francisco
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: and LA both have extra time off here. But which
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: of the teams actually adjusted to the time zone? And
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: now they come back, 17-hour difference again, and they have
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: to readjust to this time zone. That would be San Francisco.
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: So what I said about that was that was good
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: for that first game that they were out there a
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: week early and they got adjusted to the time zone.
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: That told me they were really focused on that game.
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: Whereas the Rams didn't do it. Sean McVay was just like, nope,
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: we're not adjusting our bio clocks. We're going to sleep
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: on the plane, whatever. Just go in, play the game
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: at whatever time it is our time. Come back. And
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: obviously it didn't work out well for them. But I
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: think that's going to skew our perception coming into this week.
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: So coming into this week. So San Francisco looked awesome
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: because the Rams were the preseason favorite to win the
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: Super Bowl, right? They had the best odds to win
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: the Super Bowl at least ever. And even I said
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: I thought they did. But now everybody's going to jump
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: ship on the Rams, which I would not recommend either.
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: I still think the Rams are one of the best
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: teams in the NFL, which I'll talk about when I
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: get to the Monday night game. San Francisco, I think
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: they're good and they're going to be better this year again.
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: But even though they did make the playoffs last year,
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: I think they'll be about as good as that at least.
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: But this is just a bad spot, dude. It's a
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: huge letdown spot for San Francisco. That was a monster
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: game for them. Beating the Rams, the preseason favorite, and
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: you go in and you embarrass them 27-7. You got
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: to think San Francisco's feeling real plump and gay right now, man,
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: after that. And yeah, they have extra time off, but
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: I don't think that helps when you're coming off a
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: big win like that. I think you're like basking in it.
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: And yeah, the time off might help them readjust their
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: bio clocks, but they're still having to do that. And
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: guess who's not having to do that? Whereas San Francisco
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: does have a 17-hour time difference to deal with here.
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: even though they have extra days to do it, Miami
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: is not moving at all. You might say, well, how
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: is that possible? Isn't Miami an East Coast team going
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: out to the West Coast? Which, Toad, you usually go
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: against teams that do that. Yeah, that's true, but that's
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: when it's a night game, for one thing, and this
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: is not. This is a 425 p.m. game. Eastern time game.
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: So it is a, it's an afternoon game on the
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: West coast and just a later afternoon East coast game,
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: but it's not even as bad as that because guess
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: what Miami did last week? Oh yeah. They were in
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: Las Vegas. So what happened after that? Yeah. They didn't
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: go home. Miami went out to California, so they stayed
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: in the Pacific time zone, and they practiced somewhere in Napa.
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: So Miami does not have to adjust time zones at
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: all here. So I think that's a huge advantage for
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: Miami over what San Francisco has to do here. Miami
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: staying in the Pacific time zone, and they're coming off
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: an ugly loss to the Raiders, whereas San Francisco looks amazing.
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: way too good after that first game, and San Francisco
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: might just look right past Miami here, and San Francisco
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: does at least have a divisional game next, they're playing
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: Arizona next, and I know it's Arizona, they're not good,
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: they're not expected to be good, but they did beat
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: the Chargers in week one, and they're a divisional opponent,
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: so I see San Francisco overlooking this, even though I know, technically, yes,
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: Miami is in an, oh my god, they're in a
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: road out of conference game. That's the game that means
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: the least on your schedule. Yeah. But that, that's more
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: of a, an angle to look at when it's, when
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: it's a road, like favorite or something like that. You
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? Not a massive underdog like this,
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: where the line has moved way too much, which it has,
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: by the way. Um, The look ahead on this was 10.5
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: on the 49ers, and now we're looking at possibly getting
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: a 14 on this. I would just wait, by the way,
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: on this. San Francisco has 85% of the tickets on them,
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: so they're going to be very public. They have 62%
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them, so the money is agreeing
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: with me on this. It's a big number. And by
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: the way, we have not had a double digit spread.
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: I don't think in week two of an NFL game
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: for five years. And I don't remember if the underdog
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: covered five years ago or not, but this is a
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: very rare situation to have a double digit favorite. in
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: week two of the NFL, it just doesn't happen very often.
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: So that might mean there's some value taking Miami for
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: that reason too. It's the NFL, man. I mean, these
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: teams are not separated by that much. Um, usually, um,
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: I know maybe it's a little bit different, like, you know,
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: the best team and the worst team this year, neutral site.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: There's probably about an 18 point difference maybe, or something
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: like that, but still it's the NFL. No team is
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: that much better than, uh, one of the other teams.
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: No team is as good as their best game. And
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: San Francisco just had their best game No team is
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: ever as bad as they look in their worst game either,
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: and Miami just had a pretty bad one against the Raiders,
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: although they actually were decent in that game yardage-wise, so
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: the game should have been a little bit closer than
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: the final score suggested. Yeah, it lines up for me, man. Really,
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: this is about San Francisco letdown spot, a little bit
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: of a sandwich spot, plus the travel spot that I
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: laid out, I think very much favors Miami here. And
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: like I said, I would wait, because the worst you're
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: going to get on this is 13, 13.5, but 14
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: is a very key number. We all know this. It's
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: the two touchdowns. So I would wait and see if
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: you can get the 14 at some point before this
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: game kicks off. But I'm still going to do it
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: at 13 and a half. I like Miami in that
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: game a lot. Nobody's going to want that. Muddy Waters,
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: what's up, man? You got Duran's autograph? Hell yeah, man.
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: Duran gets way too much hate, man. Everybody just hates,
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: oh my God, he yelled out a bad word at
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: fans that were just really giving him a bunch of shit,
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: you know, whatever. That was years ago at this point.
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: And I hate it. Like, these fans, just because of that, oh,
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: it becomes this political thing, and now they're rooting for
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: Durant to not play well. I hate all that. I
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: assume he was a nice dude. Like, I've seen him
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: in interviews and stuff like that, like on the Red Sox,
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: that documentary where they followed the Red Sox around a
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: couple years ago. He was in it a lot, and
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: he seems very open about all this stuff about his,
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: you know, depression and attempted suicide and all that stuff. Like,
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: I think people need to give this guy a break, man.
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: He seems like he's good with fans too. And he'll, um,
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: you know, take time with fans and sign stuff and
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: take pictures and whatever. Yeah. Duran's my dude, man. I
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: like him. I don't like his haircut really though. I
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: don't like his bleached hair. Uh, but I like Duran
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: and I hope he, uh, starts bouncing back and playing
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: better again. I don't, I don't like that. The Red
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: Sox are benching him a lot. Now. Uh, he used
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: to be a staple of the offense, uh, I got,
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: he put it together a good game when I was, uh,
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: one of the few games I went to over the
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: last couple of years last year, he had a really
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: big game against Toronto in a game that I went
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: to in person last year. I saw Duran hit a
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: home run in that game and he had another multi
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: RBI hit, I think in that game, although they lost
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: the game anyway, but, uh, whatever.
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: Duran's my guy, man. I love Duran. I haven't met
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: him though. Uh, but yeah, hell yeah. All right. Uh,
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: All these games are plays for me, by the way.
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: I have three plays, and they're all the last three
• 53:09
  Speaker 4: games here. Sunday night, Indianapolis at Kansas City. Yeah, get
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: ready for this one, too. I don't think you're going
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: to be able to get the key number on this one,
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: although you could wait and see, I guess, if you might,
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: but I don't think it's likely because the number looks
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: like it's dropping a little bit. We're going to take
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: my Indianapolis Colts plus the 6.5 here. Nobody's going to
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: want this. But the fact that this number has not
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: hit 7... That should tell you something right away. Like
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: I said, with reading the market, I said that about
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: the Philadelphia game as well, but especially this one. Look
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: at how public Kansas City is here. 83% of the
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: tickets on them, 78% of the cash, so the money
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: is somewhat coming in and fading KC here. The line
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: looks like it is dropping. It's 6.5-6 right now. You
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: could take the six, I mean, or maybe just still
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: wait and see if it goes back up because it's
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: Sunday night, dude. So it might make sense to just
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: wait because if you lose the six and a half
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: and you have to take six, it's not a big deal.
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: But getting that seven is a big deal and it
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: might still happen because this is going to be a
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: heavily bet game. You know what I mean? Sunday night
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: game is the bailout game. It's a big TV game
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: and people try to win money back on that game
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: and they bet more than they should typically in a
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: game like that. So the fact that you know Kansas
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: City is going to be massively public might do enough
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: in an NFL game to maybe push that line to
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: that key number. But the fact that it hasn't gone there,
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: that should tell you a lot. Like the odds makers
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: are fine with this number. Like they know Kansas City
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: is going to get all the public action here. They
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: don't even care. They're like, nope, six and a half.
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: We're not bringing it to seven. We're definitely not going
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: to tease or kill this thing. So what does that
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: tell me? Well, again, it tells me they're fine with
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: getting all that action on Kansas City. So they think
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: there's a pretty decent chance that Indianapolis can win this
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: game outright is basically what that's telling me. I like it,
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: and Indianapolis does tend to give Kansas City problems. I
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: believe in the Mahomes era, I believe Indianapolis, I think,
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: is two and one straight up, if I'm not mistaken,
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: against Kansas City. You might have to check me on that,
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: but I think every game has been close, too. They've
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: all been within this number. They've all been a single-digit
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: win margin. I think all of them were six or less,
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: I think, for each team. like a couple of games
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: that were three-point games, an overtime game. So Indianapolis tends
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: to play Kansas City close for whatever reason. And this
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: is also about the spot, right? I gave you guys
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: Kansas City as a play last week. It was an
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: easy win. It was a huge game for them. Double
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: revenge plus division revenge, plus nobody even wanted them. They
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: were the favorite against Denver. And I told you Kenneth
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: Walker was going to be a big addition for Kansas
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: City because they didn't have a rushing attack. Now they do.
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: But now people are going to see, oh, Ray Rice
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: destroyed Indianapolis last week, so Walker's going to do the
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: same thing. I'm not so sure about that, man. Indianapolis
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: has some things to clean up, but Kansas City looked
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: way too good last week. Like, you go into primetime
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: and the public doesn't even want you in a primetime game,
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: and you demolish your opponent like that in a huge
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: divisional game. This has to be a letdown for Kansas
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: City here, man. They don't have a big game on deck.
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: They're playing Miami next, I believe. But even so, this
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: is a huge letdown spot, in my opinion. And I
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: think you do want to fade teams that look really
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: good in a highly publicized game, like the Monday night game.
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: When Kansas City looks like that, you want to fade
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: them in the next game. And nobody's going to want Indy.
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: Even though I thought they had a decent chance to
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: hang with Baltimore last week, that did not happen. They
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: got destroyed by Baltimore. I think Indianapolis is going to
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: have a better effort here, man. nobody's going to want
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: them after what they did last week, but as I
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: keep saying, no team is as good as their worst game,
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: or as good as their best game, or as bad
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: as their worst game, and this is kind of the
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: poster child for that type of thing, plus Kansas City's
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: short turnaround time, although yes, they are staying at home, but,
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: and Indy's just traveling in from Indianapolis, which isn't too
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: bad either, but yeah, Kansas City's still one day less
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: to a to recollect themselves after that massive win. They've
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: probably been basking in that. I think staying at home
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: actually makes it worse, actually, because when you go on
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: the road, and by the way, I think this is
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: another reason to like Miami, because they didn't go back home,
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: so what do I talk about in other sports? Coming
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: back home tends to be a distraction, because you have
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: home life to get back to and stuff and those
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: distractions are there well Miami being on the road this
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: entire week that means they can just focus on football
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: no home distractions there you know what I mean so
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: I think that's really good for Miami and I think
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: it might be a negative for Kansas City staying at
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: home basking in that win because you stay at home
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: you're listening to the press oh I'm sorry we were
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: wrong Kansas City's gonna win the Super Bowl again huge
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: win like that's probably what the press is saying in
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: Kansas City right now so that's gonna make them overconfident
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean And they're probably just going
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: to laugh. Oh yeah. Indianapolis, whatever. Indianapolis has lost eight
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: games in a row. In fact, uh, going back to
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: last year, but remember Daniel Jones, I'm pretty sure only
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: played in one of those games and it was last week. Um,
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: he's still getting his footing, I think, but I think
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: you're going to see Jones get back into rhythm, man.
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, he had a severe injury. I kept saying
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: it was a broken leg. It was not, I think
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: it was a torn Achilles actually. Um, Something with the leg.
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: But he's going to be getting better as he gets
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: back into rhythm. You know what I mean? So we
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: should see improvement from the Colts here, from Jones as well.
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: We'll take Indy plus six and a half. I don't
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: really think you're going to get the seven, but again,
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: probably worth waiting around to see if you possibly do.
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: Then we got the Monday night game, which I'll talk
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: about again on the Monday morning show, I suppose, because
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: there's not a whole lot else going on on Monday.
• 58:53
  Speaker 4: Usually it's a smaller baseball board. Giants and the Rams.
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: I've already given this out as a play on the show,
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: by the way, or at least I talked about it already. Well,
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: I just mentioned it. We're going to lay the points
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: with the Rams here on Monday night, minus seven. And
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: I know they're coming back from Australia, which. normally I
• 59:10
  Speaker 4: would say that's a bad travel spot and sometimes seems
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: struggle coming back from London and whatever. Although I was
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: talking about last year, how when teams intentionally don't take
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: the buy after the London game, they actually tended to
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: perform well. But over the recent couple of years, that
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: hasn't been the case. This is a different animal though.
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: The Ram, in fact, this is a situation where it,
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: LA does have extra time off, but unlike San Francisco,
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: which I already talked about, San Francisco messed with their
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: biological clock just to get that win against the Rams.
• 59:38
  Speaker 4: The Rams didn't do that. So I think the Rams
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: were basically saying, nope, we're focusing on the season as
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: a whole. If it fucks us up in this game,
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: we lose one game out of it. But I think
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: what that's going to help LA do is it'll help
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: them in this game because they don't have to adjust
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: to the time zone. LA stayed on Pacific time the
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: whole time, even though they did make the travel. They're
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: going to be better off than San Francisco because they
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 4: never adjusted their bio clocks. So I like the Rams
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: for that reason. Now, looking at the look-aheads, by the way,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs were 6.5 on the look-ahead, by the way,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: so they're about the same. That kind of surprises me, actually,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: that it didn't move. The Rams, though, were 9.5 on
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: the look-ahead, man. And now we're looking at the Rams
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: being 7. So you're getting right on that key number
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: of 7 here. And the public doesn't even want them.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: 64% of the tickets were on the Giants. 57% of
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 4: the cash on the Rams. It's a pros versus Joes
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: Monday night, man, where the Giants are a public underdog.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: And you know I keep warning you about public underdogs.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: You do not want to be on the public underdogs, man.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: The public's going to see, oh, my God, the Rams
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: put up seven points or whatever, and they got embarrassed
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: by San Francisco. They looked awful. And now Miles Garrett
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: is out, by the way. So, yeah, that probably moved
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: the line just a smidge, maybe. Miles Garrett's out. But
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: it looks like Aaron Donald is coming back. I don't
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: know how good he's going to be. But I think
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: people are going to overreact to that. Like, okay, yeah,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: Miles Garrett, he's an elite defender. We all know this.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 4: But the Rams are still– They're still one of the
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: best teams in the league, dude. Don't overreact to one game.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? Like, the Rams didn't have
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: Myles Garrett last year, and they probably should have been
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl last year. You know what I mean? So,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: this is not a bad Rams team. They're still better
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: than the Giants. The Rams were going to be 9.5,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: and now they're 7. So, we're definitely getting some value
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: here on that key number 7. You don't have to
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: lay above a touchdown here. The Rams also would probably
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: be fine in, like, a money line parlay situation. Or
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: if you want to parlay their money line with another
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: favorite that you like, you could maybe do something like that.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: But I'm just going to straight up recommend laying the
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: seven here, man. That's what I think. We get the
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: anti-public home favorite here. And the Giants are going to
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: be in a letdown spot, in my opinion, even though
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: I know facing the Rams is a big game. But
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: the Giants just had a huge game on Sunday night, dude.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: So the Rams have a huge rest edge here, at least,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: even though, yeah, they have to travel from Australia. But again,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: they didn't mess with their bio clocks. The Rams haven't
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: played since last Wednesday, whereas the Giants played Sunday night.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: So Giants have to turn around off that massive win.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: They beat the Cowboys. Huge win. Everybody saw the game.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: The Giants looked really good. So now the public, even
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: after last year or whatever, where the Giants didn't have
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: a good year, oh, it's John Harbaugh now, man. And yes,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: I think he is going to turn this Giants team
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: around a bit. You know I like Jackson Dart. I've
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: been saying that since before day one. Since he was
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: in college, I've been saying Dart's going to be good
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: in the NFL. Yeah, that's all good. You know what
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: I mean? I like the Giants. That's all well and good.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: I like what they're doing. I think they're an improving team.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: I just don't think that they're going to be able
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 4: to do it in this particular spot, in this particular game.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: Coming up, that huge win against Dallas. Now they have
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 4: to travel to the West Coast. Here you go. You
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: want to talk about a bioclock spot. Rams are remaining
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: on Pacific time because they never changed their clocks for
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: Australia biologically. The Giants fall into that category of an
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: East Coast team having to go out West and play
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: a Pacific time, a Pacific Coast night game. And it's
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: going to be ending between 11 and midnight their time, basically.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: So I think that makes it worse for the Giants
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: having to go play this late-night game. That makes me
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: like the Rams even more here, man. So let's do it.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: I love it. This is the first one I identified.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: This is the first game I looked at of the
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: week where I was like, holy shit, I like the
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: Rams in this one. Normally I wouldn't be doing it
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: coming back from an international game like this, but it takes...
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: multiple things to make me want to do it. And
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: that is the Rams look awful in week one. And
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: the fact they didn't adjust their clocks. So that tells
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: me that they should be ready to go in this game.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: So I like all that. Plus, you're getting a 1-0
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: Giants team against an 0-1 Rams team. And what did
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: I say? Week two, you usually want to play the
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: 0-1 teams against the 1-0. And in this case, the
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: 0-1 team is a seven-point favorite. This is the heaviest
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: 0-1 favorite that we have. It's close with the Chargers,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 4: but this is the heaviest one this week. So I
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 4: like it. Rams minus seven. And that's the show here, man.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: My plays are Miami Dolphins plus 13 and a half.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: Nobody's going to like these plays, man. You know me.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: It's all contrarian for me, especially in the NFL, which
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: is the most publicly bet sport. You got to go contrarian.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: Miami plus the 13 and a half. And that one,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 4: you might be able to wait and see if you
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: can get a 14 on that. Indianapolis plus six and
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: a half. I don't think we're going to get the
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: seven on that. So that is what it is. You know,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 4: if you wait, maybe you will, but I kind of
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: doubt it on that one. And then we have the
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 4: Rams minus seven, which that I think you can take now.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know if you're going to get
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: a six and a half on that. It looks like
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: probably not. It's just seven across the board right now.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: So I don't know. I would say seven is fine
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: on that one, but we'll see. I mean, maybe if
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: you wait, you will get a better number. I don't
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: know if I would want to risk it because if
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: it goes to seven and a half, you really don't
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: want that. You know, yeah, if it goes to six
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: and a half, you're going to lose out a little bit,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: but maybe just jumping on the seven makes sense. Anyway,
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: that's going to do it. I appreciate it, guys. Learn
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: to tote on Twitter. Learn to tote on Instagram. like
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the channel here, hype it, comment on it,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: boost it, tell people about it, boost the audio stuff
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: as well. We're getting, getting some better numbers on audio here.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: Let's keep that going. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. We have a
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 4: covered in you. Cause my ukulele YouTube channel. So you
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: can check that out. Patreon.com slash learn to toad. If
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: you want to support me that way, uh, the loser
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: cast every Tuesday night and the New York giants G
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: spot podcast. We'll see if we're going to do a
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: show or not. Uh, with the Monday night game. Maybe
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: that'll be our first live watch party of it or something.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: We'll see if we're going to do that or not,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: but that's going to do it for now. Thanks guys.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: I appreciate it. Hopefully we can get a, I think
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: we can still get a winning day out of today.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 4: We had a lot of pushes today and it all
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: depends on if you got the best numbers, man. So
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: I'm not happy about it. Really. I'm really not, um,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: you know, but I'll rant about it tomorrow anyway. And
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: I'm not happy at what it did to my college
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: pick seven either, because we did not have, um, The
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: UTEP number on that better number, we had a half
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: point less, so it wound up being a loss in
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: that game, which is just, it is awful. And it
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: never should have even been really even close, to be honest.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: Looking at how well the first half went in that
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: game for us, I'm pissed. Anyway, go UCLA. I don't
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: know what's going on in the game right now. Last
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: I saw, they were winning by 14, but who knows.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: That's going to do it.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: Peace.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: Not now. Hold on. Hold on. Let me pull you out.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: That bad luck bites hard, but it don't.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: Get the crown.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: Hold on.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Hold on, stay with me now
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on You're still here now