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The American Dream Costs More Than Most People Make · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: is The Financial Exchange with Chuck Zotta and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: It's Chuck, Mike, and Tucker with you here. And as
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  Speaker 2: we head towards the end of the trading week, stocks...
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  Speaker 2: are attempting to rebound today while bonds are attempting to
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  Speaker 2: fall further. Tell me if you've heard that over the
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  Speaker 2: last month or two. S & P 500 up 32
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  Speaker 2: points to 77.97. Dow's up 218 to 51.450. NASDAQ composite
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  Speaker 2: up 136 to 27.330. 10-year treasury is up 4.5 basis
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  Speaker 2: points to 5.278, so a day after bond yields came
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  Speaker 2: down a bit. Moving back up just a touch. Dollar
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  Speaker 2: moving up a little bit as well. Up 0.16% to $ 102. 09.
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  Speaker 2: Interesting thing there is even with dollar strength and rising rates,
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  Speaker 2: you've got gold up $ 50. 90 an ounce to $ 42. 0790. So
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  Speaker 2: gold finding its footing the last couple days. We'll see
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  Speaker 2: if that continues or if it resumes its downward move
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  Speaker 2: next week. But today it's shrugging off those higher rates
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  Speaker 2: and saying, yeah, I want to go higher. Crude oil
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  Speaker 2: up another $ 0. 18 a barrel on West Texas Intermediate to $ 91. 67.
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  Speaker 2: AAA national average for gas prices moving up a cent
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  Speaker 2: overnight to $ 4. 37 and one-tenth. Diesel down six-tenths to $ 6. 27
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  Speaker 2: and eight-tenths right now. So not a ton of movement
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  Speaker 2: on gas and diesel prices. Mike, we've got a piece
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  Speaker 2: in the, well, not the, in Investopedia, on Investopedia. Where
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  Speaker 2: do you qualify, like, we have a piece in the
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  Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal, but you find something on Investopedia. Is
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  Speaker 2: it just website versus print?
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  Speaker 3: I think it's, yeah, any institution that has ever had print.
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  Speaker 2: Because you put the print inside, you have to open it,
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  Speaker 2: whereas you read on your screen, not in your screen.
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  Speaker 2: What about newspapers that no longer have print editions?
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  Speaker 4: We say in the New York Times. But we also say, like,
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  Speaker 4: on Bloomberg. So, yeah, just print versus website.
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  Speaker 3: If it was in the web version of Time Magazine,
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  Speaker 3: since that doesn't do print anymore, what are we calling it?
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  Speaker 2: So we say, on if it's a website, but riddle
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  Speaker 2: me this, the files are in the computer. Inside the computer.
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  Speaker 4: In the computer?
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  Speaker 2: Exactly. Exactly. What is this, a school for ants? Peace
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  Speaker 2: on Investopedia with really big print. The American Dream now
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  Speaker 2: costs more than $ 5. 3 million. So that's pricey. So here's
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  Speaker 2: the deal. The good news, you don't need to have
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  Speaker 2: all that money right away. And so this, I think,
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  Speaker 2: is a little bit of a deceptive headline because it's like, well,
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  Speaker 2: you need $ 5 million to get the American Dream. And really,
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  Speaker 2: it's saying, no, this is over the course of your
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  Speaker 2: lifetime that Here's what it will cost for you to
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  Speaker 2: have all of these things. So if we assume that
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  Speaker 2: the average person works 45 years. Fair point, Mike? Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: 20 to 65. 22 to 67, like 45 years. Median
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  Speaker 2: earnings right now is what, somewhere around $ 65, 000 a year?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Times $ 65, 000.
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  Speaker 2: So you get $ 3 million in earnings just from the
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  Speaker 2: work that you do. And then you're going to get
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  Speaker 2: Social Security for, let's call it, 15 years afterwards, which is,
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  Speaker 2: I don't know, median benefits like $ 12, 000, $ 15, 000 a year.
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  Speaker 2: So $ 15, 000 times 15 is another $ 225, 000. So you're like $ 3. 2
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  Speaker 2: million for the median American today. So here's what this $ 5. 3
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  Speaker 2: million American dream costs, where the breakdowns are. First, you're
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  Speaker 2: going to have a $ 40, 000 wedding. That seems high. I mean, Chuck,
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  Speaker 2: how long ago did you get married? Okay, to be fair, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I got married 10 years ago.
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  Speaker 3: And it was not less than $ 40, 000, I bet.
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  Speaker 2: I don't recall, but I don't know. I think that
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  Speaker 2: counts towards the American dream. And I think, unfortunately, yep.
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  Speaker 2: These costs have gone crazy. That's not crazy. This next
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  Speaker 2: one doesn't make sense to me. Pets, $ 40, 000. You're going
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  Speaker 2: to go through $ 40, 000 of pets in your lifetime? It's
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  Speaker 2: not as far-fetched as it sounds, actually. I mean, so
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  Speaker 2: here's the deal.
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  Speaker 4: Dog is once every 12 years.
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  Speaker 2: All right, so if you're doing this throughout... My wife
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  Speaker 2: and I, we had a cat for like 13, 14 years.
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  Speaker 2: The cat came from the SPCA where I think we
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  Speaker 2: had to make like a $ 40 donation. Yeah, but.
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  Speaker 3: To get the cats. The cat's not the American dream, Chuck.
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  Speaker 3: The American dream is the golden retriever.
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  Speaker 2: Exactly. Well, I mean, like, yes. I'm not saying it
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  Speaker 2: should be, but like... If you need a purebred golden
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  Speaker 2: retriever every 12 years, like, sure, okay, like, I understand that, but... Like,
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  Speaker 2: I get hamsters, Chuck, you know?
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  Speaker 1: Um.
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  Speaker 2: Gotta tell you, the goldfish I have are just great. Yeah. $ 40, 000.
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  Speaker 2: Ant Farm, even better. Yeah, let me think. Like, You're
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  Speaker 2: going to spend $ 1, 000 a year? You're going to spend $ 1, 000
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  Speaker 2: a year on pets?
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  Speaker 4: Sure.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, it's easy. Easily, Chuck.
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  Speaker 3: I think my dog's food alone might be the $ 1, 000
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  Speaker 3: a year.
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  Speaker 4: It might be more. What?
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  Speaker 2: Our cat came nothing close to that.
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  Speaker 1: Hold on.
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  Speaker 3: So I've got an 85-pound dog. This food costs $ 75
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  Speaker 3: a bag. That's bigger than you. And I go through
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  Speaker 3: a bag a month. So that's... Carry the one.
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  Speaker 2: That's what? Nearly $ 1, 000 in food. Okay, $ 40, 000 in lifetime
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  Speaker 2: for pets. Got it. Yeah, toss in a vet visit and... Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: that's $ 30, 000 right there.
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  Speaker 3: Talking to somebody who got a knee replacement for their
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  Speaker 3: dog recently.
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  Speaker 2: Like, oh, yeah, that adds up. Next one, yearly vacation, $ 186, 000. Again,
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  Speaker 2: figure over 60 years, $ 3, 000 a year. Yep. That seems reasonable. Like,
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  Speaker 2: no argument there. The one where I do have an argument...
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  Speaker 2: You're going to spend $ 1. 2 million on owning new cars
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  Speaker 2: over the course of your life? Yeah, what's in there?
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  Speaker 2: Is that insurance? That's high. Repairs? That does seem high
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  Speaker 2: to me, too. That seems unnecessary. That's a tough one
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  Speaker 2: for me to get to now. Okay, so let's do
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  Speaker 2: the math here. New car today. I know that the
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  Speaker 2: average new one is like $ 48, 000, but you can get
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  Speaker 2: perfectly cromulent ones for.
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  Speaker 1: $ 40, 000.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. Or $ 30, 000.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, a three-year-old car for $ 30, 000 is not
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  Speaker 3: unheard of.
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  Speaker 2: But this is a new one. This is a new one.
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  Speaker 2: Is a new car the American dream? Well, I'll say this.
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  Speaker 2: I think it was in the 80s. Let's say that
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  Speaker 2: it is, okay? I'll allow that. I'll say yes. So $ 50, 000,
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  Speaker 2: let's say. And new car, the question is how long
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  Speaker 2: are you going to drive it? Average car on the
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  Speaker 2: road is 11 years old. So let's say 10 years,
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  Speaker 2: you buy five of them over the course of your life.
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  Speaker 2: So you spend $ 250, 000 on the actual new cars, index
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  Speaker 2: it for inflation, make it $ 350, 000. Yeah, $ 1. 2 million is crazy.
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  Speaker 2: That's too much. Where's the other $ 750, 000 coming from? Because
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  Speaker 2: that means you're spending $ 10, 000 a year on insurance and maintenance.
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  Speaker 2: And I got to tell you, even though those things
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  Speaker 2: are expensive now, it's still probably a quarter of that. Fuel? Okay,
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  Speaker 2: like tossing another... Fuel, I'm just trying to think through that.
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  Speaker 2: Toss another $ 2, 000, so it's $ 4, 000. I still can't get
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  Speaker 2: to this. I can get to like $ 700, 000 if you
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  Speaker 2: need a new car every 10 years, but not $ 1. 2 million.
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  Speaker 2: With you. Raising two children and paying for college, $ 953, 000.
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  Speaker 2: No argument there.
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  Speaker 1: No.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, most families don't end up paying that, but
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  Speaker 3: that is the gross cost easily.
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  Speaker 2: Owning a home, $ 1. 275 million. I'm guessing that is a
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  Speaker 2: median priced home and all the interest associated with it now?
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  Speaker 4: Yep.
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  Speaker 2: No argument there. No argument there. Healthcare, $ 413, 000. Got to
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  Speaker 2: be honest, seems light. Does seem low. That one seems like,
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  Speaker 2: I've said on a couple of these, they seem high.
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  Speaker 2: Healthcare seems low. I feel like healthcare is not $ 413, 000.
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  Speaker 2: I feel like that should be close to like $ 800, 000. Yeah. Retirement, $ 1. 2 million.
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  Speaker 2: This is obviously in today's dollars. No argument there. I
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  Speaker 2: don't think, like if you look at this in the
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  Speaker 2: aggregate and say, okay, new car, you should take like $ 400, 000
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  Speaker 2: or $ 500, 000 off there and add $ 400, 000 or $ 500, 000 to healthcare.
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  Speaker 2: The $ 5. 3 million number, if you assume all of these
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  Speaker 2: things are what you need for the American dream, I
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  Speaker 2: don't think is actually a crazy number over the course
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  Speaker 2: of a lifetime today.
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  Speaker 3: Nor do I, and based on the numbers, it is, again,
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  Speaker 3: for the median income, it is not possible without duality.
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  Speaker 2: Working incomes or inheritances. Let's take a quick break. I
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  Speaker 2: want to dig more into this because we also got
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  Speaker 2: some consumer sentiment data. And I want to talk about
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  Speaker 2: why this matters and how this has evolved historically. So
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: let's take a quick break. And when we come back,
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  Speaker 2: let's do that. We've also got some trivia next.
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• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Michael, last segment we were discussing this piece from Investopedia
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  Speaker 2: where they state that the American dream now costs $ 5. 3
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  Speaker 2: million over the course of a lifetime. And obviously that's
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  Speaker 2: more than a median American makes in their lifetime. And
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  Speaker 2: so I wanted to have like kind of an additional
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  Speaker 2: conversation about like, What that means in terms of, has
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  Speaker 2: the American dream always actually been out of reach for
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  Speaker 2: most people, but it just wasn't talked about? Or is
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  Speaker 2: this something that's fundamentally different?
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  Speaker 4: Oh.
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  Speaker 2: Because.
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  Speaker 3: So the question then is, could median income have bought
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  Speaker 3: these things back in 1980?
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  Speaker 2: Right. You think about the quintessential time of the American
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  Speaker 2: dream is post-war America, like 1950s. Yeah. You know, it
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  Speaker 2: gets stereotypical, like, white picket fence, two and a half kids,
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: golden retriever, like, drives the Woody station wagon, goes on,
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  Speaker 2: you know, vacations to the beach every year. Like, that's
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  Speaker 2: what we think of when we think of the American
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  Speaker 2: dream stereotypically, right? Yeah. But, like, the 1950s, for an
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  Speaker 2: awful lot of people, kind of sucked economically. Like, I'm
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  Speaker 2: not saying for everyone, but... there were large swaths of
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  Speaker 2: America that were really, really poor. And if you continue
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  Speaker 2: this through the 70s and 80s, the 70s you had
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  Speaker 2: cities that were hollowed out by poverty and things like that.
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  Speaker 2: I guess what I'm just trying to get at is
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  Speaker 2: if you look at the actual data right now, and
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  Speaker 2: we've talked about this on the distribution of classes based
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: on incomes, The bigger problem that we're seeing right now
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  Speaker 2: is actually that there are more Americans making higher incomes
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  Speaker 2: than ever before, even in inflation-adjusted terms. And so they're
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  Speaker 2: just competing for the same resources. And so there's a
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  Speaker 2: population below that clearly is like, I'm nowhere near that
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  Speaker 2: and I can't get there because all of those wealthy
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: people are driving the costs up. But I'll actually make
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  Speaker 2: the case that there is a larger percentage of Americans...
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  Speaker 2: They can afford the American dream now than ever before,
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  Speaker 2: but they're just making it more and more unreachable for
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: everyone else.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: So I just don't have enough data on what this
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: same package of stuff would have cost in 1970. Obviously,
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  Speaker 3: the housing costs as well as the education costs would
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  Speaker 3: have been far, far lower, as would have been the
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: household median income. And so you have to adjust for
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: all of that. Yeah. I think on the margins, maybe
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: it's possible that when you look, again, at medians here,
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: it's possible that that specific packaged American dream was cheaper
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: back in the day and more achievable for the median income.
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  Speaker 3: In the aggregate, I'm with you, Joe. We make this
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  Speaker 3: point all the time. But you cannot look at these
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: eight without considering the context of war, poverty, death, you know,
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: mortality rates, like all of these things were way worse
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: in the 50s, 60s, and every decade prior to now.
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: And so in the aggregate, I'm with you, that quality
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: of life, I don't think you can really argue was
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: better at any point in US history.
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  Speaker 2: But I think the dream of.
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  Speaker 3: A single person supporting a household on their incomes without
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: needing to go and get a, you know, PhD.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: Is, you know, that dreams out the window, right?
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: I think of, like, the Homer Simpson dream, right? Like,
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: you know, as much as, you know, Homer complains about everything.
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  Speaker 2: Don't!
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  Speaker 3: The dude has a high school degree, white picket fence,
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: home in the suburbs, and supports his whole family on
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  Speaker 3: a blue-collar job. That dream's dead.
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  Speaker 2: But... Boo!
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  Speaker 3: And I think that might be a lot of what's
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: frustrated households today.
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  Speaker 2: That dream's long gone. Yeah, yeah, I think so. When
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: did The Simpsons start? Oh, 88, I want to say.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: 80 or 89, yeah. Yeah. Somewhere in that ballpark. This actually,
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: I'm going to see if I can find any older
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: data on this just to see how it may have evolved.
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: 89, by the way.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: 89. 37 years old. Yep. It's a good run. Yep.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: It's a good run. Are they ever going to end? No.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: No.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: Okay. Yeah. Okay. So let's move on from that American
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: dream discussion and now talk about the labor market a
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: little bit. Peace and market watch. Layoffs haven't been this
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: low since the 1960s. It's great if you have a job,
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: but not if you don't. I think things are actually
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: starting to change now on the if you don't have
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: a job. It's not across the board, but just like
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: we saw in the spring where we saw these green
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: shoots in the winter and early spring and then it
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: faded out over the summer. There's more signs of green
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: shoots right now, again, in the labor market. I think
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  Speaker 2: the real question is, do they fade again like they
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: did in the summer, or do we get a little
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: bit of uptick here and it carries us through the winter?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if I was going to rephrase this,
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: I would say, yeah, it is great if you have
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: a job. It's still kind of okay if you don't
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: have a job, right? We are not dealing with, when
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: you look at the average time of unemployed, Chuck, there
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: have been long swaths of history where it is far
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: worse than it is today. The unemployment rate that we
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: bring up all the time is quite low. Yes, the
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: hiring rate is not in a comfortable place. I think
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: the pace of hiring is somewhere in the 2015 range,
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  Speaker 3: to give a time frame.
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  Speaker 2: So yeah, that's not great.
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  Speaker 3: But in the broader context, it's also not 2011. So
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  Speaker 3: I'm just not sure how detrimentally bad it is for
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  Speaker 3: those who currently don't have a job compared to some
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  Speaker 3: of the worst times in our history.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, it's challenging because you look at the aggregate
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  Speaker 2: numbers and you're like, okay, it's not that bad. But
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: then the ones that we covered yesterday, just in the
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: construction sector, okay, data center construction's up 65% in the
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: last year in terms of spending, but every other part
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: of the construction industry has spending down aside from utilities.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: And so it's like, OK, I can understand how someone
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: who even in like construction, if you happen to be
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: in a niche that just isn't, you know, growing, you
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: can be like, yeah, it's really hard for me to
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: find work. And, you know, I'm not getting like any
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: calls to, you know, come in and this like I
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: get that, too, because it's just so unequally distributed in
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: terms of the growth. It's not happening broadly.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: And that's where flexibility is key in this economy.
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: If you are flexible enough to be willing to relocate
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: your family for three months and go take a construction
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: job that's not next to home, you can get a job.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: If you're willing to move.
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: Into blue-collar work or nursing from where you were previously,
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: you can get a job. But you might have a
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: tough one finding a job as a web designer.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. We have the trivia answer
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: coming up next.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street Watch. Tracking the stocks, the data,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: and the headlines driving markets so far today. Right here
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: Markets in positive territory with a modest rebound in tech
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: as Wall Street's keeping a very close eye on the
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: energy impact from Hurricane Isaiah. Right now the Dow is
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: up half a percent or 253 points higher. S &
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: P 500 is up above four tenths of a percent.
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: NASDAQ is also up four tenths of a percent or
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: 110 points higher. Russell 2000 is up four tenths of
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: a percent. Ten-year treasury yield is up three basis points
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: at 5.263%. Oil is up, you guessed it, four tenths
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: of a percent at $ 91 a barrel, while Brent is
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: up about half a percent at $ 104 a barrel. Delta
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: reported earnings that missed street expectations for the first time
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: in two years and cut its 2026 profit forecast as
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: a result of elevated fuel costs. However, CEO Ed Bashan
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: said demand remains strong. Delta shares are down 2%. Meanwhile,
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: SpaceX is up nearly 2% after it reached a deal
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: to buy cellular spectrum licenses from grain management to help
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: build a Starlink mobile network. Other telecom carriers are seeing
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: losses on the day. Humana rallying nearly 13% after the U.S.
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: government improved its rating for the company's Medicare Advantage plans,
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: putting it in line for more bonus payments. And Apple
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: is down over 1% after Nikkei Asia reported that the
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: tech giant told some of its suppliers to cut production
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: of parts for its new iPhone 18 lineup due to
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: softer demand. I'm Tucker Sullivan. That is Wall Street Watch.
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: And in the previous segment, we asked you the trivia question,
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: how old was John Lennon when he met Paul McCartney?
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: He was 16 years old. And Barbara from Lempster, New
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: Hampshire is our winner today, taking home a Financial Exchange
• 21:43
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• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Congrats to Barbara.
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: We play trivia every Friday here on the Financial Exchange.
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: See complete contest rules at financialexchangeshow.com.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Mike, last segment we were continuing our discussion of the
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: American dream and its relative unaffordability today. Yeah. And I
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: have a few follow-ups on that. First, Tucker sent over
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: a bunch of different emails, texts. Texts. That's the one.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: And I wanted to go through a few of these. First,
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: from someone, quote, I got married in 1988. My wedding
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: was $ 10, 000. It was not an extremely fancy wedding. So
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: make the case that that $ 40, 000 today is reasonable. And yeah,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: going through it, actually, I'm like, okay, I don't know
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: why I thought that that was crazy expensive for A
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: wedding today.
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: $ 10, 000 adjusted for inflation is $ 29, 000.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: But if you take a look at.
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: The items that go into a wedding, I can assure
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: you the inflation on those items is a fair bit higher.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: And all those prices are jacked up. Anyone I've talked
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: to actually now who's gotten married recently is like, yeah,
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: it's insane. Also, as far as vets go, they charge $ 1, 000
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: for teeth cleaning, blood work, at least $ 400. Yeah, the
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: vet stuff is really expensive as well. So maybe on
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: the pet side, I was wrong there. Uh, text on
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: the car side of things. Cause we were talking about
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: like how this is pricing like new cars at like,
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: you know, average new car price of like 50 K.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: Have people never heard of the Toyota Corolla Honda Civic
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: or Mazda three? They're all fine cars and all three
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: start in the mid twenties. Right. Totally agree. Again, like
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: I drive a Subaru that didn't cost me anywhere near,
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: you know, the, the average new car price, but this
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: is what people pay for cars. Unfortunately.
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: Like it's, I'm not saying that like they should or shouldn't, Well, actually,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: they shouldn't. Most people should buy a cheaper car than
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: they do. Yeah, I don't know when people spend this.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know when the American dream changed from a
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: station wagon to a suburban. But like, yeah, that wasn't
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: the American dream. If we're trying to like the white
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: picket fence, single family home has been pretty consistently the
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: American dream.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: The $ 60, 000.
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: SUV was not always part of the American dream.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: That's new.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Yep, that's fair. Other texts. Here we go. Al Bundy
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: supported his family with a house and a car and
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: a dog, working as a shoe salesman. Well, to be fair,
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: it was also a TV show. No, you could do it.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: You know, so.
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, if we're going to say The Simpsons could
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: do it, then... Again, Bruce Willis went into space to
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: blow up an asteroid. Yeah.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: You know, so... I did have... And Mike, this is...
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: In full disclosure, I haven't gone through and done a
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: full audit of it, but it passes the sniff test
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: just looking at it off the bat. During the break,
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: I did have AI run. I showed it the study
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: from Investopedia, and I said, I want you to recreate
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: this for every year going back to 1946. How'd it do?
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Pretty darn good, I think. Now, again, I haven't done
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: a full audit, but it basically said, look, For lifetime earnings,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: it's pulling that from census data because we have that
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: for each year. So it's doing that. For home, we
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: have single-family home prices going back based on CPI data.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: So we have all of that. Cars, we have that
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: in the CPI, so it grabs that. Same with college,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: health care. So it basically uses current pricing and CPI
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: to get you to where things were. Here's what it shows. Now,
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: with the caveat, to be fair, the AI actually did
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: a pretty good job here. It gave me a big
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: disclaimer at the end. It says a 1946 family didn't
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: buy two new cars every decade. They didn't pay for
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: center-based childcare or pay for vacations the same way each year.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: So the early figures are asking, answering the question of
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: what would today's dream have cost then, not what did
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: people actually spend? Because some of those costs didn't exist
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: back then.
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: But as an example, annual income for a household was $ 2, 800
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: back in 1946. Lifetime earnings were $ 97, 000. The cost of
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: this American dream then was $ 227, 000, which is a difference
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: of 57% in the earnings versus the cost. Today, that
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: difference is just 32.3%.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: Did it data mine any specific time period where it
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: was more affordable than today?
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: No, there was not a single one.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: And the interesting thing, like some of this stuff, it's like, oh,
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: like in the early 1980s, things got worse because of
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: inflation and interest rates going up. So like homes got
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: worse then. But the piece that is interesting, and again,
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: this makes sense when you think about it conceptually, historically
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: for the last 70 to 80 years, we have seen
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: rising real wages. Wages have risen faster than inflation, meaning
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: that your money is able to buy more. There are
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: periods where that's not the case. The 80s, the last
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: couple of years, like we saw one back in 2022
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: and 2023, things got worse then from an affordability perspective.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: And it's reflected in this data because it went from
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: a 31% gap in earnings versus the cost to To
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: a 36% gap. So, like, again, this is why just, like,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: looking at it intuitively, what this data is telling me,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: it makes sense. But I haven't done, like, a full
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: audit of everything. But, again, I think that the problem
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: that we have now in terms of the affordability of
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: the American dream, number one, the biggest thing is just
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: on the house side of things. I was going to
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: say the biggest problem is social media, but yeah. Yes, well.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: But again, home prices went up, they haven't come down,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: and mortgage rates have made it just crazy expensive for
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: people to buy a house. So that's the part I
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: think that feels most out of reach for people. And
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: it's just so visible also. But it's also a case where,
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: if you're looking at this, the other place where, and again,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: this even notes it in here, it's like, look, college
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: costs have gone up way faster than earnings. And so like, again,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: it's a big ticket item and another very visible one
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: where it's like, okay, I'm not going to be able
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: to buy a place to live and I'm not going
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: to be able to educate my kids. Great that I
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: can buy the new car every 10 years. It's the
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: little things in life, Chuck. You know, but again, like
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: if we're talking about like the power of AI, some
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: of the, like, I couldn't have done this on my own.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: It gave me like all these great charts and stuff.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: How quick was that? It was done before the break
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: was I put it in before the break. And by
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: the time we came back, it was done. And I
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: had given it one modification that I wanted. Which was?
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: It didn't give me the gap of earnings versus cost.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: And so I was like, I want you to give
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: me a percentage gap that it's filling. And it did
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: it right away. And I have a full dashboard. I
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: can sort by year. If I hover over years, it
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: shows me. It would have taken me a month to
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: do this on my own.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: And six months ago, it probably wouldn't have been capable
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: of doing it. And I would imagine today it probably
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: made up two to three percent of the statistics, whereas
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: a year ago would have made up a third of them.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: But this is why I like one of my other
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: main things about A.I. is people use it wrong. Like
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: you don't use it as a glorified search engine.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Because you don't need it like. Use it to actually
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: do stuff for you. Not, like, using sensitive data. Because, like,
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: here's the thing. If this screws up, what's the real problem?
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: yeah nobody's publishing research based on like right I'm not
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: publishing this or anything I'm just like okay let me
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: see what it can do in five minutes but like
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: there's no like personal data in here like my social
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: security's numbers not floating around but like that's what you
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: think Chuck look deeper oh interesting Now that you mention it,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: it is in there. Oh, there's my kids' names. But
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: if you ask AI to actually do things for you,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: you'll be amazed at what it can do. I'm not
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: saying connect it to all of your systems and this
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: and that, but ask it to do something like this.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: I was like, hey, extrapolate this back 70 years using
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: these data sources. Boom, here you go. Okay, I would
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: have had to fiddle with Excel for a week or
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: two at least to do this. So, well, I know
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: that we talk about the scary part of AI a lot,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: and I have those fears. If you've listened to our show,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: you hear them. But I just asked it to do
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: something that would have taken me weeks, and it did
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: it in five minutes. And that's pretty cool. The problem is,
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: for these AI companies, I have a $ 20 a month subscription.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: How are you going to scale a $ 20 a month
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: subscription up to paying for $ 5 trillion in data centers?
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: You're not. Nope. I can't make the math work on that. Yeah,
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: and you wouldn't be willing to pay a whole lot
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: more than that. No, well, here's the thing. What I'm
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: doing right now is going to be in a cheaper
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: model six months from now. Right. And I don't need
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: to do more than this. Like, this is punty. Let's
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: take a quick break. We got Stack Roulette next.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Markets. Money. business the financial exchange brings it together every
• 31:23
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• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: The 2026 DAV 5K Boston is officially sold out. The
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: race is Saturday, November 7th at Fort Independence on Castle Island.
• 32:03
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• 32:06
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• 32:09
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• 32:13
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• 32:17
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• 32:21
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• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Mike, what do you got for Stack Roulette? Another fun
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: AI agent story.
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: This one was a guy down in Nashville, Tennessee, who
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: runs his own business. And he's been using AI agents
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: both in his personal life as well as his work life.
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: He thought that he had pretty successfully segregated them, which,
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: you know, tip, maybe just don't use the same AI agent, uh,
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: even company for these things. If you are trying to
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: segregate these things, uh, but he was using Grok bot,
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: which is SpaceX is always on agent. And, uh, he
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: got a, he got a note from his employee. Hey boss, uh,
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: you might want to go take a look at the
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: team Slack channel or whichever, you know, internal messaging tool
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: they use because, uh, Your AI agent just posted your
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: entire bank statement on there with a whole bunch of
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: details about spending plans, how much it was going to
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: cost you to renovate your home, and a whole bunch
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: of little stuff. He asked the bot what happened. He said,
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: so many of these AI agents, because of who designs them,
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: just make me think of a bro. But the bot
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: explained itself and sort of apologized. That's on me, it said.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: Wrong audience for personal cash, period.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: Okay. Yeah, I mean, again, this is so innocent. Like, okay,
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: so what?
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: Some tech bros' bank statements got leaked onto an internal
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: chat server. But it's just very indicative of the fact
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: that even people who, again, the average person is not
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: building themselves AI agents to respond to work inquiries and
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: plan out personal AI assistant type stuff. That's not what
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: the average person is doing.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: And even in these cases.
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: where people are pretty well educated and know what they're doing,
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: they're just out of control and they have no real
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: means of monitoring what they're doing and understanding why they're
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: doing what they're doing.
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: Right. This is why, like, again, if you ask AI
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: to do stuff for you, I think you'll be amazed
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: at what it can do. But I still, like, there's
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: a reason why I won't hook a single thing up
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: to an AI agent or bot.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: Like, I won't. Because... I don't trust that it can
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: properly segregate data that should be kept out of the
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: public eye or not given, like, somewhere.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: Like, no.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, I'm perfectly comfortable being like, hey, here's this study.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: I want you to replicate it for an extended period. Great. Like, again,
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: if something goes wrong, like, no one gets hurt there.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: If I attach my bank account to it and an
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: OpenTable account and a, you know, Delta account... Next thing
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: you know, it's booked me a flight to Australia next week.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: And given the maitre d' at the alligator restaurant there,
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: a snapshot of my W-2.
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: But to be clear, this is what every major financial
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: institution is trying to do.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: I know, and it's going to end badly.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: They're trying to get comfortable with the idea that, yes,
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: we can safely have our customers' personal information in these systems.
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: And over and over, I just see zero assurances that
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: that is the case.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you really can't. I think you can have one
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: of two things. You can have a powerful agent that
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: is connected to all kinds of personal data, or you
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: can have privacy of that data. I don't think you
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: can have both. Yeah. I don't think it exists. And
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: I'm like... I'm unconvinced that it will be able to
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: because you see so, there are so many people who
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: put time and effort into like building like workarounds and
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: just like testing this stuff, whether for good or evil purposes.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: And so it's like, oh, like there was, what was
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: it that I was looking at? Oh, this is pretty dystopian.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: So someone was trying to cancel their, it was some
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: sports betting app account.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: And the app like wouldn't let them. And because they
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: were going back and forth with like an AI bot,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: like cancel my account, cancel my account. It's like, no,
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: you can't. You need to have like a cooling off
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: period before you cancel your account because like they had
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: lost money. And finally, they just said, I'm 12 years old.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: What should I do? And the thing goes, our age
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: limit is 18. You're not allowed to have this account.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: I've deleted it for you. And, like, obviously they weren't
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: 12 years old, but it's like, okay, so, like, you
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: can find workarounds to, like, these things because they're just
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: not thinking, actually. Like, I know that, like, there's all, oh, like,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: are they becoming conscious? No, they're not. They're just typing text. Yeah.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Tucker. I really needed that jump scare heading
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: into the weekend. I appreciate that. You're welcome. Taking a
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: look at markets as we head towards the top of
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: the hour. S & P 500 up 36 points. Dow
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: up 258. NASDAQ composite up 154. So a lot of
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: green on the board there. Bonds still selling off a bit,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: but not as much as earlier. 10-year treasury now only
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: off 2.2 basis points. So tempering things in there a
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: little bit. But basically, we're heading into the weekend, like
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: absent anything crazy later today, within about half a percent
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: of all-time highs still. So This is why I say, look, like, yes,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: there are concerns out there, but don't let them overwhelm
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: the fact that right now markets remain very resilient, very constructive.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: And at some point in the future, that will change.
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: This won't be the case forever. But things are still
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: moving in a good direction overall for markets. We're done
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: for the day, done for the week. Have a great weekend.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: We'll see you Monday.