Latest / Blaze Media / Predictable with Stu Burguiere - You Won’t Believe this MAJOR Twist in Critical Senate Race

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Predictable with Stu Burguiere - You Won’t Believe this MAJOR Twist in Critical Senate Race · Blaze Media

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  Are you new to prediction markets?
• 0:03
  Are you just trying to figure them out?
• 0:05
  We've got resources for you.
• 0:06
  Predictable101.com has a little short,
• 0:09
  like 3 minute,
• 0:09
  4-minute videos,
• 0:11
  plus uh extended guide to how to get started on prediction markets,
• 0:15
  how to uh fund your account,
• 0:17
  go through the entire process,
• 0:18
  predictable101.com.
• 0:20
  We have so much coming up for you.
• 0:22
  Whether you're a beginner or you've been doing this for a long time,
• 0:24
  we've got the candidate
• 0:25
  countdown coming up.
• 0:26
  We've got a,
• 0:27
  a,
• 0:27
  a,
• 0:28
  a really a major development
• 0:30
  in
• 0:31
  a key Senate race
• 0:33
  that we've been watching very closely and,
• 0:35
  you know,
• 0:36
  could determine the control of the Senate.
• 0:38
  We'll get into that,
• 0:39
  uh,
• 0:39
  and we've got NFL.
• 0:40
  Golf,
• 0:41
  lots of other fun stuff to talk about as well.
• 0:44
  So thank you so much for joining us.
• 0:45
  We're at predictableShow.com.
• 0:47
  Great website.
• 0:48
  Lots of stuff behind the scenes,
• 0:49
  great chat,
• 0:50
  uh,
• 0:50
  active,
• 0:50
  uh,
• 0:51
  chat room going on right now as well as
• 0:53
  people talk about their positions and what's gonna happen
• 0:55
  in the election and sports and so many other things.
• 0:57
  So join us predictableshow.com.
• 1:00
  Let's get started.
• 1:15
  All right,
• 1:16
  here we go.
• 1:17
  Predictable with Stu,
• 1:18
  we've got 40 days,
• 1:20
  40 days until the midterm elections,
• 1:23
  less than 6 weeks away.
• 1:25
  And I'm noticing some things.
• 1:28
  About this election and how it's working out.
• 1:31
  And every once in a while you notice you uncover a little nugget
• 1:34
  that might give you a little edge,
• 1:35
  a little hint as to what is going to happen.
• 1:38
  And I don't know if this is one of them,
• 1:40
  but it's,
• 1:40
  it's a pattern I'm noticing,
• 1:42
  OK?
• 1:43
  It's pretty central
• 1:44
  to this program
• 1:46
  and what we've seen so far.
• 1:48
  Let me give you an example of it.
• 1:50
  We,
• 1:50
  uh,
• 1:50
  featured,
• 1:51
  I think maybe on our very first candidate countdown,
• 1:53
  Ashley Hinson.
• 1:54
  She's in Iowa.
• 1:55
  She's running for Senate
• 1:57
  against Josh Turerick.
• 1:58
  She's a Republican.
• 2:00
  And I told you,
• 2:01
  I think she's good.
• 2:03
  I like the value there.
• 2:04
  There's,
• 2:04
  yeah,
• 2:04
  you know,
• 2:04
  really big returns,
• 2:05
  a little bit of risk there.
• 2:06
  I mean,
• 2:06
  you know,
• 2:07
  she's had some risk,
• 2:08
  uh,
• 2:09
  because it's a pretty close race.
• 2:10
  And as I mentioned at the time,
• 2:12
  The Democratic gubernatorial candidate
• 2:16
  is way out ahead of the Republican there.
• 2:18
  So,
• 2:19
  I think what a lot of people were doing was looking at this and saying,
• 2:21
  well,
• 2:21
  wait a minute,
• 2:22
  you know,
• 2:22
  they're kind of
• 2:24
  putting these two races together,
• 2:25
  thinking people won't split their ticket,
• 2:27
  but,
• 2:27
  you know,
• 2:27
  this is still a pretty red state,
• 2:29
  and that's why I liked Ashley Hinson there.
• 2:31
  Uh,
• 2:32
  since then,
• 2:33
  she's had a couple of bad polls.
• 2:35
  And in fact,
• 2:36
  she just had one this week.
• 2:37
  Ashley Hinson
• 2:38
  trails Turek now by 8 points
• 2:41
  in the Iowa Senate poll.
• 2:42
  This is by far the worst result of the entire campaign
• 2:46
  for Ashley Hinson.
• 2:48
  It's interesting.
• 2:51
  Kind of annoying.
• 2:52
  It's a Marist poll,
• 2:53
  by the way,
• 2:54
  and Marist,
• 2:55
  you know,
• 2:55
  uh,
• 2:56
  I would say has a little bit of a leftward lean,
• 2:59
  a legitimate pollster,
• 3:00
  a little bit of a leftward lean,
• 3:02
  but not.
• 3:03
  Certainly not 8 points,
• 3:04
  uh,
• 3:04
  that they're not known for an 8-point average lean,
• 3:07
  though they do miss from time to time.
• 3:09
  Possible they're just off,
• 3:10
  it is sort of an outlier in this race,
• 3:12
  but
• 3:12
  the worst result
• 3:14
  of the entire campaign for Ashley Hinson
• 3:17
  happening after
• 3:18
  I picked her on candidate countdown.
• 3:19
  This is what this,
• 3:20
  uh,
• 3:20
  this,
• 3:21
  uh,
• 3:21
  Senate race looks like right now.
• 3:23
  And,
• 3:23
  uh,
• 3:24
  here's the market for you.
• 3:25
  It is,
• 3:25
  uh,
• 3:25
  you know,
• 3:26
  it's been
• 3:26
  an interesting one because,
• 3:28
  uh,
• 3:28
  here it is.
• 3:29
  You kind of see,
• 3:30
  uh,
• 3:31
  a narrowing,
• 3:32
  if you will,
• 3:33
  uh,
• 3:33
  uh,
• 3:34
  kind of a big narrowing over the past few weeks.
• 3:36
  Give me a look at,
• 3:37
  go back to,
• 3:37
  uh,
• 3:39
  let's say,
• 3:39
  um,
• 3:40
  a couple of months ago here,
• 3:41
  Adam,
• 3:41
  uh,
• 3:42
  you know,
• 3:42
  if you can kind of look at that,
• 3:43
  yeah,
• 3:43
  like you see
• 3:44
  Hinson at around 60.
• 3:46
  Um,
• 3:47
  I thought she was getting honestly a nice value at 60,
• 3:49
  61.
• 3:50
  Keep going,
• 3:50
  uh,
• 3:50
  toward today.
• 3:52
  Uh,
• 3:52
  no other way.
• 3:53
  Yeah,
• 3:53
  there you go.
• 3:53
  Uh,
• 3:54
  you see it did drop there for a little bit,
• 3:55
  but Rose,
• 3:56
  what's the peak there right before a couple weeks ago?
• 3:58
  Uh,
• 3:58
  right there at 64 she was at
• 4:00
  a couple,
• 4:01
  uh,
• 4:01
  maybe a week or two ago before this poll,
• 4:03
  and since then has narrowed all the way down to what is it today,
• 4:05
  Adam?
• 4:06
  We're at,
• 4:07
  uh,
• 4:07
  55%.
• 4:09
  Now,
• 4:09
  I will say this.
• 4:11
  If you like Ashley Hinson at 64%,
• 4:14
  you're gonna love her at 55%
• 4:17
  because,
• 4:18
  uh,
• 4:19
  everything's on sale
• 4:21
  after I featured her on
• 4:23
  Candidate Countdown.
• 4:27
  Some good developments,
• 4:28
  I guess,
• 4:28
  if you,
• 4:28
  if you,
• 4:29
  if you didn't buy in yet,
• 4:30
  you believe in Ashley Hinson,
• 4:31
  look,
• 4:31
  good news,
• 4:32
  better price.
• 4:33
  However,
• 4:33
  she's fallen a little bit since I talked about her.
• 4:35
  Let's go to,
• 4:36
  uh,
• 4:36
  Texas.
• 4:37
  Uh,
• 4:37
  new poll puts Texas Senate gubernatorial races
• 4:40
  in play
• 4:41
  for Democrats.
• 4:43
  This
• 4:43
  is the article.
• 4:44
  This poll,
• 4:45
  uh,
• 4:45
  featuring another Marist poll,
• 4:47
  surveyed 1,139 Texas registered voters from September 17th through the 20th.
• 4:52
  Uh,
• 4:53
  said that James Tallarico
• 4:54
  is out in front of Ken Paxton,
• 4:56
  50 to 44,
• 4:58
  and,
• 4:59
  uh,
• 5:01
  And,
• 5:01
  uh,
• 5:02
  the Democrat Gina
• 5:04
  Hinajosa,
• 5:05
  which is just a fun name to say,
• 5:07
  to be honest with you,
• 5:08
  might be the best thing about her candidacy.
• 5:10
  Gina Hinajosa
• 5:11
  is,
• 5:12
  uh,
• 5:12
  leading Republican incumbent,
• 5:14
  Greg Abbott,
• 5:14
  49 to 46.
• 5:16
  That's his worst result.
• 5:18
  Of the entire campaign.
• 5:22
  Right after I featured him on Candidate Countdown,
• 5:25
  because the concept here was Abbott is a,
• 5:27
  uh,
• 5:27
  look,
• 5:27
  Paxton has his problems,
• 5:29
  but they're pretty unique to Ken Paxton.
• 5:31
  Uh,
• 5:32
  decisions he's made,
• 5:33
  scandals he's been involved in,
• 5:34
  we'll leave it all,
• 5:35
  uh,
• 5:35
  there.
• 5:36
  Uh,
• 5:37
  and believe me,
• 5:38
  I still think he would be much better than James Tallarico,
• 5:40
  and I still think he's got a very decent shot of winning that race,
• 5:43
  even though he's now a significant underdog in it.
• 5:45
  I think he still has a chance.
• 5:46
  We will see.
• 5:47
  Uh,
• 5:47
  but,
• 5:47
  uh,
• 5:48
  with Abbott,
• 5:49
  he was,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:50
  I don't know where he was,
• 5:51
  show us the market here,
• 5:52
  uh,
• 5:52
  Adam.
• 5:52
  Um,
• 5:53
  you know,
• 5:53
  when we did candidate countdown,
• 5:54
  he's a little bit higher.
• 5:54
  You see,
• 5:55
  he's come down here
• 5:56
  in the last couple,
• 5:58
  couple of weeks.
• 5:58
  He's now at 74%.
• 6:00
  Where was he?
• 6:00
  I don't know,
• 6:00
  a month ago or,
• 6:02
  uh,
• 6:02
  two months ago in there,
• 6:03
  like these peaks.
• 6:03
  Look at this.
• 6:04
  He was in the 90s at one point.
• 6:05
  Now,
• 6:05
  I didn't recognize,
• 6:06
  I did not,
• 6:07
  uh,
• 6:07
  recommend him in the 90s.
• 6:08
  I was recommending him in the mid 80s,
• 6:10
  I believe,
• 6:11
  like right around,
• 6:11
  you know,
• 6:12
  a couple of weeks ago.
• 6:13
  Um,
• 6:13
  but now he's at 74.
• 6:16
  74 is definitely less than 80.
• 6:20
  Everything's on sale after you go on candidate countdown,
• 6:23
  apparently.
• 6:24
  Uh,
• 6:24
  so if you were excited about Greg Abbott at 82
• 6:27
  and 85,
• 6:29
  you are gonna be thrilled to hear
• 6:31
  he's available now at 74 cents.
• 6:34
  Again,
• 6:35
  very,
• 6:36
  very interesting
• 6:38
  after I featured him
• 6:39
  on Canada Countdown.
• 6:40
  But you might say,
• 6:41
  well,
• 6:41
  still,
• 6:43
  of course,
• 6:43
  this has happened because,
• 6:44
  you know,
• 6:44
  you've picked a,
• 6:45
  uh,
• 6:45
  uh,
• 6:45
  uh,
• 6:46
  I,
• 6:46
  I don't know why you,
• 6:47
  why you're having this conversation with me through me,
• 6:49
  but
• 6:51
  You still,
• 6:51
  you picked a a varying amount of Democrats and Republicans on candidate countdown,
• 6:55
  you feature a new candidate every single day.
• 6:57
  And so,
• 6:58
  obviously the polling recently has been bad
• 7:01
  for Republicans.
• 7:02
  So the Republicans,
• 7:03
  obviously the ones that you've picked that are Republicans,
• 7:06
  are gonna be in worse shape,
• 7:07
  so it's got nothing to do with you featuring them on candidate countdown,
• 7:10
  obviously.
• 7:14
  Oregon governor's race tight as
• 7:16
  poll shows a 2-point margin.
• 7:18
  Now,
• 7:19
  I haven't picked all Republicans.
• 7:21
  I even picked Tina Kotak,
• 7:24
  uh,
• 7:24
  one of my picks
• 7:25
  on candidate Countdown.
• 7:27
  Now,
• 7:27
  I have over 300 picks.
• 7:29
  They're all available
• 7:30
  on predictableShow.com for premium subscribers.
• 7:33
  I can't hide
• 7:35
  my picks.
• 7:36
  They're out there.
• 7:37
  You can see them,
• 7:38
  you can view them,
• 7:39
  you can make fun of me all,
• 7:40
  all you want.
• 7:41
  I think that when you go through them,
• 7:43
  and,
• 7:43
  and we've seen this from the premium subscribers,
• 7:45
  you'll find that most of them have been really,
• 7:47
  really good,
• 7:47
  but the ones I picked on
• 7:48
  Candidate Countdown,
• 7:50
  maybe not so great so far.
• 7:52
  Kind of interesting.
• 7:54
  Especially when you think of Tina Kotak,
• 7:55
  who's a Democrat in Oregon.
• 7:57
  We've had a massive slew of polls
• 8:00
  that have come out
• 8:02
  all across the country,
• 8:03
  almost exclusively.
• 8:06
  Good for Democrats,
• 8:08
  bad for Republicans over the past few weeks.
• 8:12
  Yet Tina Kotak,
• 8:13
  one of the people that I feature on Candidate Countdown,
• 8:15
  has a poll come out against Christine Drazen.
• 8:17
  She's the Republican,
• 8:18
  and Drazen leads
• 8:20
  45 to 43.
• 8:22
  This is a DHM research poll,
• 8:24
  only 600,
• 8:24
  uh,
• 8:24
  likely voters.
• 8:25
  This is basically a tie.
• 8:27
  But how is a Democrat in Oregon
• 8:29
  in a tie
• 8:31
  in this environment?
• 8:33
  It all happened
• 8:35
  right after.
• 8:37
  She appeared on Candidate Countdown.
• 8:40
  Hm,
• 8:41
  this is what the market looks like right now.
• 8:43
  I see this hasn't moved
• 8:45
  all that much.
• 8:47
  In fact,
• 8:47
  it's now back to about where I rec uh recommended it,
• 8:50
  or I don't wanna say recommended it,
• 8:52
  but
• 8:52
  told you that I picked it.
• 8:54
  Uh,
• 8:55
  but it,
• 8:55
  you've seen some falls there and it's seemingly a pretty close race.
• 8:58
  I mean,
• 8:58
  how does a Republican have a 15% chance of winning in Oregon in this environment?
• 9:04
  I don't know,
• 9:05
  but
• 9:06
  a lot of it's happened since.
• 9:07
  After candidate countdown.
• 9:10
  And I started thinking about it like what's.
• 9:13
  What's exactly going on here?
• 9:15
  OK.
• 9:16
  What exactly is happening?
• 9:18
  Why is it that every single time
• 9:22
  I seem to pick somebody on Candidate Countdown and feature them in that one segment,
• 9:26
  1 out of probably over 100 positions that I have in the markets.
• 9:30
  A lot of those have gone the right way.
• 9:32
  And yet this one.
• 9:34
  Has gone the wrong way.
• 9:35
  The previous two went the wrong way.
• 9:39
  Hm,
• 9:40
  what exactly is going,
• 9:42
  is going on here?
• 9:43
  I've come up with a theory.
• 10:01
  It's the curse of candidate countdown.
• 10:04
  My theory is,
• 10:06
  whenever I put someone in this segment,
• 10:08
  Their campaigns start blowing up.
• 10:10
  That's,
• 10:10
  that's my theory,
• 10:11
  my working theory right now.
• 10:14
  And I will tell you this.
• 10:20
  I don't know how to explain it exactly.
• 10:22
  But I will say something's going on here,
• 10:24
  and I think I need to think about this very carefully because
• 10:28
  yesterday on Candidate Countdown,
• 10:30
  I featured someone who's had basically
• 10:33
  exclusively good news.
• 10:36
  For months.
• 10:38
  Someone who has been rising in the polls,
• 10:41
  someone who is doing very,
• 10:42
  very well,
• 10:42
  and again,
• 10:43
  a Democrat.
• 10:47
  And then almost
• 10:49
  right after we air the segment,
• 10:50
  what happens?
• 10:52
  Mm.
• 10:54
  This story breaks in of all places,
• 10:57
  the New York Times.
• 10:58
  Angry outbursts,
• 11:00
  slurs and firings,
• 11:02
  tumult
• 11:03
  rocks a key Senate campaign.
• 11:06
  Democrats hope that Mary Peltola,
• 11:09
  yesterday's.
• 11:11
  Candidate of the day on candidate countdown,
• 11:13
  uh,
• 11:14
  uh,
• 11:15
  they hope they can,
• 11:15
  he can flip a Republican,
• 11:17
  uh,
• 11:17
  she can flip a Republican Senate seat in Alaska.
• 11:20
  Former aides describe a campaign and congressional office marked
• 11:23
  by chaos.
• 11:24
  Now,
• 11:25
  I have never,
• 11:25
  I will be honest with you,
• 11:27
  one of the reasons why,
• 11:28
  uh,
• 11:28
  Peltola was a,
• 11:29
  a nice pick,
• 11:30
  uh,
• 11:30
  and I liked the pick and I liked the value
• 11:33
  was because she's kind of known.
• 11:35
  As like
• 11:37
  someone that everybody kind of likes,
• 11:38
  doesn't make a lot of waves,
• 11:40
  no big deal,
• 11:40
  she's gonna cruise to this thing,
• 11:42
  she's got this easy path,
• 11:43
  blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.
• 11:45
  I laid out all the reasons yesterday why I thought,
• 11:47
  why I thought she was a a good selection.
• 11:49
  And,
• 11:50
  you know,
• 11:50
  I,
• 11:50
  I,
• 11:51
  I,
• 11:51
  I'm not thrown off of this,
• 11:53
  uh,
• 11:54
  by this particular thing.
• 11:55
  By the way,
• 11:55
  I should point out,
• 11:56
  none of those positions I'm thrown off of.
• 11:59
  I understand if you are nervous about them and you don't want to take them.
• 12:01
  I,
• 12:02
  I never encourage you to follow me in a position.
• 12:04
  I,
• 12:04
  I only tell you what I have.
• 12:06
  What I'm thinking,
• 12:08
  and then,
• 12:08
  uh,
• 12:08
  you know,
• 12:08
  say,
• 12:09
  hey,
• 12:09
  you can either go along with me,
• 12:11
  you can ignore me,
• 12:12
  you can make fun of me,
• 12:13
  you can think about my thinking and look
• 12:15
  for another position that's similar or opposed,
• 12:17
  whatever you think.
• 12:18
  It's just another tool for you to be able to use
• 12:20
  as you go through and try to find positions of your own
• 12:23
  to be profitable in prediction markets.
• 12:25
  We look at these,
• 12:26
  you know,
• 12:26
  we look at this very much like investing here.
• 12:28
  We don't look at this as,
• 12:29
  you know,
• 12:30
  massive risks or anything.
• 12:31
  I,
• 12:32
  you take a position you believe has
• 12:34
  value.
• 12:34
  And I think all of those positions,
• 12:36
  I'm still comfortable with,
• 12:37
  I'm not selling any of those positions.
• 12:39
  Um,
• 12:39
  but
• 12:40
  it is interesting,
• 12:41
  and I don't know what this is gonna do to this campaign.
• 12:45
  It might be one of those scandals that just pops up and goes away.
• 12:48
  Uh,
• 12:48
  but this is to give you a sense as to what was going on.
• 12:51
  Uh,
• 12:52
  here's a couple of texts that were revealed.
• 12:54
  Uh,
• 12:54
  uh,
• 12:54
  Mary Peltola texting,
• 12:56
  I hope Planned Parenthood knows that if we don't win,
• 12:59
  it's more their loss than ours.
• 13:01
  F those bees.
• 13:05
  Who is this person?
• 13:07
  She was supposed to be the soft-spoken,
• 13:10
  uh,
• 13:10
  lady of the Senate.
• 13:11
  Uh,
• 13:12
  then you have this one
• 13:13
  where she types,
• 13:14
  F
• 13:15
  that,
• 13:15
  uh,
• 13:16
  I don't know,
• 13:16
  R word retard.
• 13:17
  I,
• 13:17
  you know what it is.
• 13:18
  I'm not gonna,
• 13:19
  uh,
• 13:20
  hide it from you.
• 13:20
  Um,
• 13:21
  and then,
• 13:21
  uh,
• 13:22
  and then he honestly,
• 13:22
  the other thing she says is,
• 13:23
  honestly,
• 13:24
  I nothing him,
• 13:25
  which I guess is,
• 13:25
  is a Scrubs reference.
• 13:27
  I didn't watch Scrubs,
• 13:28
  but I read in the story that it was a Scrubs reference.
• 13:30
  Now,
• 13:32
  There's a bunch of stuff in here,
• 13:33
  she's firing people,
• 13:35
  she's had to come out and basically admit that she said
• 13:37
  the R word over and over again that she shouldn't have.
• 13:41
  She also had an excuse,
• 13:42
  here's what it says,
• 13:43
  at the time of uh the passing of her mother
• 13:47
  and her husband.
• 13:49
  She was parenting kids through their own grief,
• 13:51
  serving full-time in the US House,
• 13:54
  uh,
• 13:54
  thousands of miles from home,
• 13:55
  and running a competitive re-election campaign,
• 13:57
  all while shouldering an enormous burden of grief,
• 14:00
  said their Hearst spokesman.
• 14:01
  Like any person who's gone through multiple personal
• 14:03
  tragedies in the span of a few months,
• 14:05
  Mary sometimes struggled to deal with her grief.
• 14:08
  I'm sure that's true.
• 14:08
  By the way,
• 14:09
  her husband died in a plane crash.
• 14:11
  So I mean it really was a,
• 14:12
  a,
• 14:12
  a terrible,
• 14:12
  terrible time for her.
• 14:14
  And look,
• 14:17
  Let's be honest about it.
• 14:18
  Uh,
• 14:19
  if you go through your texts,
• 14:20
  you go through your emails,
• 14:21
  eventually you find something that you're probably not proud that you wrote.
• 14:24
  So,
• 14:24
  I,
• 14:24
  I don't know,
• 14:24
  is this that big of a deal?
• 14:26
  I think at some level,
• 14:27
  probably not.
• 14:28
  Um,
• 14:28
  and honestly,
• 14:29
  at some
• 14:30
  level,
• 14:31
  there's,
• 14:31
  uh,
• 14:32
  there's a part of me.
• 14:34
  The,
• 14:34
  uh,
• 14:35
  there's a a little slight,
• 14:37
  you know,
• 14:37
  conspiratorial slice of me that make honestly makes it sound like,
• 14:42
  are they,
• 14:42
  are they releasing this on purpose so that people think,
• 14:45
  oh gosh,
• 14:45
  well,
• 14:45
  she's,
• 14:46
  you know,
• 14:46
  she's trying to appeal to fishermen right in Alaska right now.
• 14:50
  Her,
• 14:50
  her,
• 14:50
  her
• 14:51
  campaign is something like
• 14:52
  fish,
• 14:53
  oil and freedom or something like that.
• 14:55
  She,
• 14:55
  I mean,
• 14:56
  she's doing everything she can to deny that she actually is a Democrat.
• 14:59
  And,
• 15:00
  uh,
• 15:00
  that's been her campaign the entire time.
• 15:03
  Um,
• 15:03
  so,
• 15:04
  frankly,
• 15:05
  I think this is a sort of a,
• 15:07
  a,
• 15:07
  a,
• 15:08
  a.
• 15:08
  There's
• 15:09
  they're gonna try to,
• 15:10
  this might not be such a negative.
• 15:11
  How about that?
• 15:12
  I don't know,
• 15:12
  I'm sure they didn't want this out there,
• 15:14
  but
• 15:15
  because she's also using the,
• 15:16
  uh,
• 15:17
  the F word to describe,
• 15:18
  uh,
• 15:19
  you know,
• 15:19
  uh,
• 15:19
  people of an alternative lifestyle,
• 15:21
  if you were,
• 15:22
  uh,
• 15:22
  if you will,
• 15:23
  uh,
• 15:23
  throughout the article.
• 15:25
  And so,
• 15:25
  I don't,
• 15:26
  I don't know if this was released intentionally,
• 15:28
  but I,
• 15:28
  I,
• 15:28
  it also like she's trying to appeal to people who
• 15:31
  don't like cancel culture,
• 15:33
  right?
• 15:33
  So maybe this actually helps her in a roundabout sort of way,
• 15:37
  but
• 15:38
  it is interesting,
• 15:39
  right after Candidate Countdown,
• 15:41
  the curse of Candidate Countdown strikes.
• 15:43
  If I feature you on Candidate Countdown,
• 15:46
  Some part of your life is gonna be ruined.
• 15:49
  Might be your professional life,
• 15:50
  might be your personal life.
• 15:51
  Who knows what's coming out
• 15:52
  right there.
• 15:53
  Let's look at this market,
• 15:54
  by the way.
• 15:54
  This is the market for
• 15:55
  Alaska and then as you say,
• 15:57
  uh,
• 15:57
  you know,
• 15:57
  since we've been talking about this,
• 15:58
  and it's,
• 15:59
  it,
• 15:59
  we've actually had a good run up,
• 16:00
  uh,
• 16:01
  but a little,
• 16:01
  you could see it drop a little bit.
• 16:02
  What,
• 16:03
  give me a week on this,
• 16:04
  uh,
• 16:04
  chart here,
• 16:05
  Adam,
• 16:05
  if you can.
• 16:06
  I wanna see if it shows any of that detail.
• 16:07
  Go to the highest point and the lowest point.
• 16:09
  You know,
• 16:09
  it looks like we're a little,
• 16:10
  we're at about 76 for her,
• 16:12
  and now we're down to what?
• 16:15
  Uh,
• 16:15
  74.
• 16:17
  So a couple of points,
• 16:18
  no big deal,
• 16:20
  just a minor curse for Mary Peltola,
• 16:23
  who had the worst,
• 16:24
  uh,
• 16:24
  moment of her campaign
• 16:25
  almost immediately after we feature her
• 16:27
  on Candidate Countdown.
• 16:29
  Who would have thought?
• 16:32
  That's just the way this works.
• 16:33
  Now,
• 16:33
  I don't know what I should do with this information.
• 16:36
  Because,
• 16:36
  you know,
• 16:36
  you're all involved in this as well.
• 16:38
  You know as well as I do that you're,
• 16:40
  something you're doing watching this show
• 16:42
  is causing this curse.
• 16:44
  I don't know what it is.
• 16:45
  I don't know what you're guilty of,
• 16:47
  because I'm crystal,
• 16:48
  crystal clear,
• 16:50
  completely clean.
• 16:51
  But something we're doing
• 16:53
  together
• 16:54
  is causing this curse,
• 16:55
  and I don't know what to do about that.
• 16:57
  Because part of me thinks this is unfair
• 16:58
  to these candidates featuring them on the segment.
• 17:00
  Should we just end the segment?
• 17:02
  Maybe.
• 17:03
  It's a,
• 17:03
  it's a,
• 17:04
  it's a consideration.
• 17:05
  The other part of it is,
• 17:06
  do we just try starting to use this strategically?
• 17:10
  Do I realize the power that I have to curse these candidates
• 17:14
  and then just start featuring
• 17:16
  candidates
• 17:17
  specifically with that thought in mind.
• 17:18
  And I will say this,
• 17:19
  we are open.
• 17:20
  Our email boxes are open,
• 17:21
  predictableShow.com.
• 17:23
  Uh,
• 17:23
  our,
• 17:23
  uh,
• 17:24
  you can do questions at predictableShow.com,
• 17:26
  you can put it in the chat at predictableShow.com,
• 17:29
  drop it in a comment on social media,
• 17:30
  whatever you want.
• 17:32
  We,
• 17:32
  I,
• 17:33
  and I wanna be clear about this.
• 17:35
  We're gonna stay within the the means of the law.
• 17:39
  But if applicable,
• 17:41
  we will take campaign donations
• 17:44
  to feature your opponent
• 17:46
  on Candidate Countdown.
• 17:48
  That is something we,
• 17:49
  this is a new business.
• 17:50
  I'm a startup here.
• 17:51
  I gotta come up with all different ways
• 17:53
  to try to pay for all the stuff that's going on.
• 17:54
  Look at the studio.
• 17:55
  There's,
• 17:56
  it's all fancy behind me.
• 17:57
  This is not just some podcast.
• 18:00
  Where's we,
• 18:00
  look at all the money we spent on this stupid thing.
• 18:03
  We gotta pay for it somehow.
• 18:05
  If you are running in a race and you're like,
• 18:07
  I want my candidate to,
• 18:08
  uh,
• 18:08
  sink
• 18:09
  their campaign within the next week.
• 18:12
  Our,
• 18:12
  our email,
• 18:13
  our communications are all open,
• 18:15
  OK?
• 18:15
  Write to us,
• 18:16
  tell us to feature them,
• 18:17
  maybe we will,
• 18:19
  if the price is right.
• 18:20
  That's all we're saying.
• 18:22
  But I do think at the very least,
• 18:25
  I should start using this power
• 18:27
  strategically.
• 18:29
  So
• 18:30
  Coming up next
• 18:32
  A new episode
• 18:34
  Of candidate counting
• 18:59
  Ah yes,
• 19:01
  the curse
• 19:02
  of the candidate countdown
• 19:04
  is here,
• 19:05
  and we're using our powers in a very responsible manner.
• 19:10
  Um,
• 19:10
  we'll just make sure that we're,
• 19:12
  we're not sinking any candidates here that are,
• 19:14
  that you might,
• 19:15
  you might be a huge fan of.
• 19:16
  I hope that's not the case.
• 19:18
  But that's,
• 19:18
  of course,
• 19:19
  not why I picked this person at all,
• 19:21
  uh,
• 19:21
  today.
• 19:22
  But actually,
• 19:22
  I do think there's some really good value.
• 19:23
  So let me give it to you.
• 19:25
  Candidate countdown.
• 19:25
  We've got 40 days left until the midterms.
• 19:27
  We pick a different candidate every day to feature out of my picks
• 19:30
  and talk to you about what my thinking was,
• 19:33
  uh,
• 19:33
  on it.
• 19:33
  And I don't know if this one actually,
• 19:35
  I think I've only picked up in the last few days,
• 19:37
  but I do like it.
• 19:38
  Um,
• 19:38
  and the candidate of the day,
• 19:40
  it is total coincidence with the curse,
• 19:42
  total coincidence.
• 19:43
  Uh,
• 19:44
  you should totally believe that.
• 19:45
  Uh,
• 19:46
  the candidate of the day is JB Pritzker.
• 19:50
  Democrat from Illinois,
• 19:51
  a guy that we all
• 19:53
  know and love.
• 19:54
  Wait a minute,
• 19:54
  I gotta
• 19:56
  I gotta call out,
• 19:57
  uh,
• 19:57
  the production staff here for a second.
• 19:58
  Go back to the initial,
• 20:00
  uh,
• 20:00
  screen here.
• 20:02
  OK,
• 20:02
  look at that spot shadow.
• 20:03
  That is not JB Pritzker.
• 20:05
  This is just a generic human being spot shadow,
• 20:08
  cause look at the difference between that,
• 20:10
  that little spot shadow and that picture.
• 20:12
  That is not the same guy.
• 20:13
  I just wanna make sure
• 20:14
  that you know,
• 20:16
  um,
• 20:16
  you know,
• 20:17
  it's important.
• 20:17
  Well,
• 20:17
  I will say,
• 20:18
  uh,
• 20:19
  the rumor is
• 20:20
  JB Pritzker's been losing some weight.
• 20:23
  And you know he wants to run for president now.
• 20:25
  You can tell he's gonna,
• 20:26
  and this is,
• 20:26
  by the way,
• 20:27
  I would.
• 20:28
  I don't remember what the market is on this.
• 20:30
  I think I do.
• 20:30
  I may have a position on him running for president.
• 20:32
  If not,
• 20:33
  I should,
• 20:33
  uh,
• 20:34
  because he's,
• 20:34
  I think he's gonna run.
• 20:35
  Uh,
• 20:36
  but yeah,
• 20:36
  he says he's lost a bunch of weight.
• 20:38
  In fact,
• 20:38
  Axios has a report on it.
• 20:39
  Pritzker reveals
• 20:41
  an 80-pound GLP1
• 20:43
  weight loss.
• 20:44
  Now,
• 20:44
  as a very Very,
• 20:46
  very,
• 20:46
  very happy
• 20:47
  Eli Lilly shareholder.
• 20:49
  I cheer him on,
• 20:51
  uh,
• 20:51
  by the way,
• 20:51
  on this,
• 20:52
  uh,
• 20:52
  particular,
• 20:53
  uh,
• 20:53
  situation.
• 20:54
  Uh,
• 20:55
  good job.
• 20:55
  Good job,
• 20:56
  JB,
• 20:56
  uh,
• 20:57
  you've got,
• 20:57
  uh,
• 20:58
  80 pounds lost,
• 20:59
  but like,
• 20:59
  the wording on that is
• 21:00
  weird.
• 21:01
  Uh,
• 21:01
  he revealed it.
• 21:03
  Like
• 21:04
  Was he in a cabin?
• 21:06
  Did he go away?
• 21:06
  Did he disappear?
• 21:07
  He's the current governor of a state.
• 21:09
  What do you mean he revealed it?
• 21:10
  Wouldn't we notice the weight loss,
• 21:12
  right?
• 21:12
  Like it's not like one of those things like,
• 21:14
  Hey,
• 21:14
  wow,
• 21:14
  look at this.
• 21:15
  He went on a sabbatical for six months and came back and he weighed 80 pounds less.
• 21:20
  It's not really revealing it.
• 21:22
  I guess he's revealing the GLP one usage.
• 21:24
  I don't know.
• 21:26
  Uh,
• 21:26
  but what I will say is,
• 21:27
  um,
• 21:28
  I got the side by side pictures here,
• 21:29
  2025 to 2026 and,
• 21:31
  uh,
• 21:34
  Hm.
• 21:38
  Looking back at this headline.
• 21:40
  No,
• 21:40
  it does say 80 pounds.
• 21:41
  I thought maybe it said 80 ounces.
• 21:42
  Is it possible he
• 21:44
  he lost 80 ounces?
• 21:46
  In the past couple of years,
• 21:47
  cause I
• 21:50
  Not that much difference there,
• 21:51
  JB.
• 21:53
  But congratulations on the weight loss.
• 21:55
  Hopefully it's,
• 21:55
  uh,
• 21:56
  made you much,
• 21:56
  much healthier.
• 21:57
  Now I will say this,
• 21:58
  this race,
• 21:59
  generally speaking,
• 22:00
  is pretty boring,
• 22:01
  and I,
• 22:01
  I didn't just feature feature him to
• 22:04
  destroy his political career,
• 22:06
  uh,
• 22:06
  because there's more to this race that I do think there's some interesting stuff on.
• 22:10
  Uh,
• 22:10
  here's the,
• 22:11
  the only general election poll,
• 22:12
  it's very old,
• 22:13
  it's from Victory Research back almost a year ago now,
• 22:16
  um,
• 22:16
  but he was up by 20.
• 22:18
  That's what you,
• 22:18
  of course,
• 22:19
  would kind of expect out of a race like this,
• 22:21
  right?
• 22:21
  It's Illinois.
• 22:22
  He,
• 22:23
  the challenge isn't typically there in a race like this from
• 22:26
  the Republican to the Democrat in a state like Illinois,
• 22:28
  and in this environment,
• 22:29
  it makes it even much more difficult.
• 22:31
  Uh,
• 22:32
  let me give you some of the rundown here
• 22:33
  on some of the stats,
• 22:34
  and I,
• 22:34
  I apologize.
• 22:35
  I did actually
• 22:36
  forget to print this out,
• 22:37
  uh,
• 22:37
  today.
• 22:38
  So I only have it on my phone.
• 22:39
  I'm gonna put it up here and,
• 22:40
  uh,
• 22:41
  give you some of my notes.
• 22:42
  But,
• 22:42
  uh,
• 22:42
  so Pritzker had,
• 22:43
  uh,
• 22:43
  uh,
• 22:44
  has already beaten,
• 22:45
  uh,
• 22:45
  the same guy,
• 22:46
  Bailey statewide,
• 22:47
  uh,
• 22:47
  in 2022.
• 22:48
  He won by 12.5 points over the same person.
• 22:51
  And,
• 22:51
  and that's kind of shows what the Republicans in that state think.
• 22:53
  They're like,
• 22:53
  OK,
• 22:54
  well,
• 22:54
  hey,
• 22:55
  12.5 is pretty good.
• 22:56
  Let's run the same guy.
• 22:57
  Um,
• 22:57
  he,
• 22:58
  uh,
• 22:58
  he won,
• 22:59
  uh,
• 22:59
  over a Republican incumbent,
• 23:01
  uh,
• 23:01
  in,
• 23:01
  in 2018,
• 23:04
  which was,
• 23:04
  um,
• 23:05
  a very Democratic year.
• 23:06
  He won by 15.7.
• 23:07
  So you see kind of the range there,
• 23:09
  right?
• 23:09
  Uh,
• 23:09
  2022
• 23:11
  was a relatively good,
• 23:12
  not great,
• 23:12
  but relatively good Republican year.
• 23:14
  He won by 12.5,
• 23:16
  and in a good Democratic year,
• 23:19
  similar to the one we have now,
• 23:20
  at least at some level,
• 23:22
  he won by 16.
• 23:23
  Um,
• 23:24
  his vote share has been pretty consistent.
• 23:26
  He's been over 50% pretty easily.
• 23:28
  Um,
• 23:29
  he's also rich.
• 23:30
  I don't know if you know this about the guy.
• 23:31
  Uh,
• 23:31
  you know,
• 23:32
  uh,
• 23:34
  he,
• 23:34
  you know,
• 23:34
  he,
• 23:35
  he would overindulge in certain things,
• 23:37
  uh,
• 23:37
  like,
• 23:38
  let's say,
• 23:38
  um,
• 23:38
  food.
• 23:39
  Uh,
• 23:39
  but he also is a very wealthy guy and does
• 23:41
  not mind pouring his own money into the campaign.
• 23:44
  Uh,
• 23:45
  he's contributed $65 million last month
• 23:48
  into his campaign.
• 23:49
  He's a billionaire,
• 23:50
  so he's got tons and tons of money.
• 23:51
  Um,
• 23:52
  and,
• 23:52
  uh,
• 23:53
  he's going to obviously
• 23:54
  well overraise and overspend
• 23:56
  against his opponent.
• 23:58
  Uh,
• 23:58
  his approval is,
• 23:59
  you know,
• 24:00
  OK.
• 24:00
  It's around 50%.
• 24:01
  In a Democratic state,
• 24:02
  you'd think that's not great.
• 24:03
  It should be better than that.
• 24:04
  You know,
• 24:05
  if you're a left-wing governor in a left-wing
• 24:07
  state that's planning on running for president,
• 24:08
  you'd think you'd be in the 60s maybe.
• 24:11
  He's not great,
• 24:11
  but 50% is probably enough to get this done.
• 24:14
  Um,
• 24:14
  the polling obviously is,
• 24:16
  you know,
• 24:16
  20 point margin.
• 24:17
  There's not much on the other side when you're talking about victory for Bailey.
• 24:21
  I took a few things down here.
• 24:22
  Um,
• 24:23
  you know,
• 24:23
  again,
• 24:23
  they,
• 24:24
  they did have a Republican governor not that long ago,
• 24:26
  so it's not impossible.
• 24:27
  Again,
• 24:28
  if you've,
• 24:28
  if you've missed me talk about this before,
• 24:30
  there's sort of a hierarchy of certainty.
• 24:32
  We should do a graphic of this at some point,
• 24:33
  Adam.
• 24:33
  Let me talk you through this,
• 24:34
  but hierarchy,
• 24:35
  hierarchy of certainty in these races.
• 24:38
  I tend to look at the presidential race as when I feel most confident in a,
• 24:41
  in a,
• 24:41
  in a thing.
• 24:42
  Like when there's a state,
• 24:43
  I like to look at a particular state,
• 24:45
  I feel really,
• 24:45
  really confident.
• 24:46
  Next level is senator.
• 24:47
  I feel more confident in senatorial races statewide than I do
• 24:51
  gubernatorial races,
• 24:52
  um,
• 24:53
  uh,
• 24:53
  or house races.
• 24:54
  Next level is governor because it's a statewide race.
• 24:56
  I could feel more confident there,
• 24:58
  and then House races are always a little more itchy.
• 25:00
  Like,
• 25:00
  uh,
• 25:00
  oh,
• 25:01
  gosh,
• 25:01
  I hope,
• 25:01
  you know,
• 25:02
  you never know.
• 25:02
  I mean,
• 25:03
  really big upsets have happened
• 25:04
  at the level of the house.
• 25:06
  Um,
• 25:06
  and,
• 25:06
  you know,
• 25:07
  again,
• 25:07
  most of these go the expected way,
• 25:09
  but there are surprises sometimes,
• 25:11
  the smaller the electorate is
• 25:12
  that you have.
• 25:13
  So,
• 25:13
  you know,
• 25:14
  that being said,
• 25:14
  look,
• 25:14
  JB Pritzer is gonna win this race,
• 25:15
  and he's probably gonna win it by a lot.
• 25:17
  The question is not necessarily that.
• 25:18
  Let me go to the,
• 25:19
  uh,
• 25:19
  Illinois
• 25:20
  gubernatorial winner here,
• 25:22
  uh,
• 25:22
  and I'll show you where my position,
• 25:23
  uh,
• 25:24
  is on this race.
• 25:24
  Now,
• 25:25
  JB is at 97%.
• 25:26
  I talked to you about this yesterday.
• 25:28
  Um,
• 25:28
  if you're looking to shield yourself against the potential
• 25:32
  Democratic wave that could be coming,
• 25:33
  at least possible now,
• 25:35
  you wanna maybe look for some value on Democrats that can offset
• 25:39
  the Republicans if things don't go that well,
• 25:41
  and,
• 25:42
  uh,
• 25:42
  if you have Republican positions as well.
• 25:45
  JB Pritzker,
• 25:46
  unfortunately is not a good example of this because he's at 97.8% chance to win.
• 25:50
  So yes,
• 25:51
  you can probably guarantee yourself a couple of percent
• 25:53
  over six weeks.
• 25:54
  By the way,
• 25:55
  I'll note just at the surface,
• 25:57
  once again,
• 25:58
  that's much better than you're gonna do in your bank account.
• 26:00
  And I will also note that both Cal Calsie and Polymarket will pay
• 26:03
  you basically the same rate you're getting in a savings account anyway,
• 26:07
  not FDIC insured.
• 26:08
  Important thing to know,
• 26:09
  but they're gonna pay you on that even if your money's invested.
• 26:11
  Someone asked me this the other day,
• 26:12
  like,
• 26:12
  what do you mean they'll pay you if you're sitting,
• 26:14
  if your money's sitting in the account,
• 26:15
  even when your money's invested,
• 26:17
  they're paying you 3.25% or something like that
• 26:20
  on those investments.
• 26:21
  So,
• 26:22
  again,
• 26:23
  I,
• 26:24
  I,
• 26:24
  I,
• 26:24
  you know,
• 26:24
  I obviously I'm a fan of prediction markets.
• 26:26
  I don't need to tell you that.
• 26:27
  But like,
• 26:27
  you know,
• 26:28
  unless you think these companies are going under next week,
• 26:30
  and they're,
• 26:31
  you know,
• 26:31
  look,
• 26:31
  they're,
• 26:32
  you never know.
• 26:32
  This is not FDIC insured money.
• 26:35
  But
• 26:36
  still,
• 26:37
  if you're getting the bank account and you can just lock in,
• 26:39
  let's just say you just do this and just pick JB Pritzker at 97%,
• 26:42
  you make,
• 26:43
  you know,
• 26:43
  2.5,
• 26:44
  3% over the next 6 weeks.
• 26:45
  Is that bad?
• 26:47
  Is that gambling?
• 26:48
  Is it?
• 26:51
  I would argue it is not,
• 26:52
  by the way.
• 26:53
  Um,
• 26:53
  anyway,
• 26:54
  so,
• 26:54
  uh,
• 26:54
  we have that.
• 26:54
  Go back to the market though for a second cause I wanna hit one other thing.
• 26:57
  This is where I'm going on this cause 22% honestly
• 26:59
  not that exciting to me right now in prediction markets.
• 27:01
  I think we can do better,
• 27:02
  but it is a nice option if you want to be really,
• 27:05
  really conservative.
• 27:06
  Uh,
• 27:06
  scroll down on this race a little bit.
• 27:08
  And at the bottom you see,
• 27:09
  and Calci does this a lot,
• 27:10
  I think a lot of the prediction markets do,
• 27:11
  but they'll they'll link other related markets
• 27:14
  toward the bottom of the page,
• 27:16
  and you see there's a voter turnout number,
• 27:17
  there's a vote percent number,
• 27:19
  and Democrat margin of victory.
• 27:21
  I like these markets,
• 27:21
  they're fun,
• 27:22
  and you can often get better numbers there than you can
• 27:26
  in,
• 27:26
  uh,
• 27:27
  in,
• 27:27
  uh,
• 27:28
  in other circumstances,
• 27:29
  uh,
• 27:29
  just by picking the winner.
• 27:31
  So if you see here,
• 27:32
  Pritzker winning by 6 points
• 27:34
  is at 90.2%.
• 27:36
  Um,
• 27:36
  now.
• 27:37
  I have not looked at,
• 27:38
  you know,
• 27:39
  these markets have traded at different points and they've bounced around.
• 27:42
  I don't know how many shares,
• 27:42
  someone may have already cleaned out these shares now that I'm looking at it.
• 27:45
  90.2% of him winning over 6,
• 27:47
  great value there.
• 27:48
  He's gonna win by more than 6 points,
• 27:49
  in my opinion.
• 27:50
  9,
• 27:51
  I think is really good value.
• 27:52
  You see that one says 97%.
• 27:54
  This is why there's not tons of,
• 27:56
  um,
• 27:57
  there's not tons of,
• 27:58
  uh,
• 27:59
  uh,
• 28:00
  liquidity in these markets,
• 28:01
  meaning
• 28:01
  There's not a lot of people in them.
• 28:03
  There's not a lot of money in them right now.
• 28:04
  So the prices sort of bounce around.
• 28:06
  You gotta kind of catch it at the right time to get these prices.
• 28:09
  You can't just go on and get them.
• 28:10
  So,
• 28:10
  97%
• 28:11
  at 9%.
• 28:12
  Yeah,
• 28:12
  he's probably gonna win by that.
• 28:13
  12 is interesting there though.
• 28:15
  You have,
• 28:15
  uh,
• 28:15
  him winning by 12 points at 72%.
• 28:19
  That is a nice trade.
• 28:20
  Now,
• 28:20
  you do see that some of those cars have been shares have been cleared out.
• 28:23
  Right now,
• 28:23
  it looks like you could buy them,
• 28:24
  buy yes shares at 90%.
• 28:26
  I still don't hate that value,
• 28:27
  not quite as sexy.
• 28:29
  Um,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:30
  and then you see at 15+ points,
• 28:32
  which I think is
• 28:33
  very possible,
• 28:34
  if not likely
• 28:35
  in this particular race.
• 28:37
  Uh,
• 28:38
  there have been shares that have been trading at 54 cents.
• 28:40
  Now,
• 28:40
  you gotta kind of poke around and you gotta get those at the right time.
• 28:43
  It's a good place to put some standing order money.
• 28:46
  If you can put that out there and just pick your price,
• 28:49
  let the market come to you.
• 28:50
  Don't necessarily chase it to 97,
• 28:51
  98.
• 28:53
  Um,
• 28:53
  but,
• 28:53
  you know,
• 28:53
  sit back and put it at,
• 28:54
  OK,
• 28:55
  hey,
• 28:55
  I'm gonna put this at 15.
• 28:57
  Uh,
• 28:57
  you're gonna put this at 50% or 60% or whatever the market looks,
• 29:00
  uh,
• 29:00
  gives you the opportunity on
• 29:01
  and let that money sit out there.
• 29:03
  Uh,
• 29:03
  our,
• 29:04
  our,
• 29:05
  uh,
• 29:06
  we've got a,
• 29:06
  let's see,
• 29:07
  what are we,
• 29:07
  um,
• 29:08
  it's one of these,
• 29:09
  uh,
• 29:09
  14th Amendment.
• 29:10
  The 14th Amendment to the predictable Constitution
• 29:12
  is,
• 29:13
  it never
• 29:14
  hurts to ask.
• 29:16
  And what does that mean?
• 29:17
  Look,
• 29:18
  you might think what you're saying,
• 29:19
  hey,
• 29:19
  there's way more than a 50% chance X,
• 29:22
  Y,
• 29:22
  or Z happens.
• 29:23
  Uh,
• 29:24
  why would I put an order in that says,
• 29:25
  hey,
• 29:25
  there's only a 50% chance,
• 29:26
  no one's gonna buy it.
• 29:28
  Never hurts to ask.
• 29:30
  Who knows what they're thinking is?
• 29:31
  Maybe they're really smart,
• 29:32
  maybe they're smarter than you,
• 29:33
  who knows?
• 29:34
  Uh,
• 29:34
  but you wanna put in an offer at 50 cents when you think the real value is 90 cents.
• 29:39
  Someone may buy that and you might get a nice run up from
• 29:42
  50 all the way to 100 instead of just 90 to 100.
• 29:44
  So,
• 29:45
  that's our candidate of the day.
• 29:45
  It is JB Pritzker.
• 29:49
  May the curse last forever,
• 29:50
  or at least uh for the next few days.
• 29:52
  Uh,
• 29:52
  JB,
• 29:53
  uh,
• 29:54
  not my favorite candidate.
• 29:55
  OK,
• 29:55
  we're gonna take a break,
• 29:56
  come back with some sports.
• 29:57
  Uh,
• 29:57
  predictableShow.com,
• 29:58
  by the way,
• 29:58
  is where you can see every single one of my picks,
• 30:00
  not just the candidate of the day ones that get cursed.
• 30:03
  Go past that
• 30:04
  and go to the place at predictableshow.com where you
• 30:07
  can see over 300 of my prediction market positions.
• 30:09
  They're all there,
• 30:11
  kind of like
• 30:12
  looking for you to look at them and say,
• 30:14
  hey,
• 30:14
  gosh,
• 30:14
  that was dumb.
• 30:16
  Uh,
• 30:16
  you might find some that are dumb,
• 30:17
  hopefully you find some that are great.
• 30:18
  We've seen lots of really great returns and results
• 30:21
  from people
• 30:22
  in these prediction markets and that have followed along on these positions.
• 30:26
  We did very,
• 30:26
  very,
• 30:27
  very well
• 30:28
  throughout the primary season.
• 30:30
  If you are a member,
• 30:31
  you probably know that already.
• 30:32
  We'd love to have you at predictableshow.com.
• 30:34
  Back in a second.
• 30:47
  Well,
• 30:47
  a terrible tragedy occurred yesterday as America's sweethearts,
• 30:52
  America's team,
• 30:53
  the Toronto Blue Jays were eliminated from playoff contention.
• 30:56
  And,
• 30:57
  uh,
• 30:57
  that sucks for me cause I am
• 30:59
  America's,
• 30:59
  I think,
• 31:00
  one of very few,
• 31:01
  uh,
• 31:02
  Toronto Blue Jays fans and
• 31:04
  Uh,
• 31:04
  there's not many of us here that are American and have
• 31:07
  been to Canada like twice and love the Blue Jays,
• 31:09
  but it's a long story.
• 31:10
  It goes back to my childhood.
• 31:11
  Long story short,
• 31:12
  uh,
• 31:13
  they,
• 31:13
  they,
• 31:13
  after going to the World Series and losing by like
• 31:16
  0.25 of an inch
• 31:18
  multiple times in the World Series last year,
• 31:20
  they were eliminated
• 31:21
  from contention.
• 31:22
  Now that sounds bad for me and it is bad for me and I'm tortured by it,
• 31:25
  but
• 31:26
  what do I do in those situations?
• 31:27
  Well,
• 31:28
  I hedge my life.
• 31:29
  I get paid for my pain,
• 31:31
  and I hope,
• 31:32
  as I told you,
• 31:32
  by the way,
• 31:33
  on this,
• 31:33
  on,
• 31:33
  uh,
• 31:33
  here's one I kind of like episode a couple of times,
• 31:36
  uh,
• 31:36
  there's some value here.
• 31:37
  This team is distraught,
• 31:39
  destroyed with injuries.
• 31:40
  These things are not going to,
• 31:41
  it's just not happening for this team this year.
• 31:43
  Uh,
• 31:44
  so,
• 31:44
  I was able to,
• 31:45
  uh,
• 31:45
  get a nice profit out of that.
• 31:46
  Hopefully,
• 31:46
  you joined on.
• 31:47
  Actually,
• 31:47
  a bunch of people
• 31:48
  on our,
• 31:48
  uh,
• 31:49
  on our site predictableShow.com talked about this,
• 31:51
  uh,
• 31:51
  you know,
• 31:51
  as I'm pointing.
• 31:52
  It out,
• 31:52
  hedge your life,
• 31:53
  get paid for your pain.
• 31:54
  Patrick says,
• 31:55
  made a nice 20% profit.
• 31:57
  Thank you,
• 31:57
  you made 20% off my pain,
• 31:59
  Patrick.
• 31:59
  I congratulate you for that.
• 32:01
  Uh,
• 32:01
  Jim,
• 32:02
  uh,
• 32:02
  he made 26%,
• 32:04
  uh,
• 32:04
  return over a short period of time on this,
• 32:06
  uh,
• 32:06
  particular selection.
• 32:07
  And he also had an Eagles logo,
• 32:09
  so I had to say go Birds.
• 32:09
  The point though,
• 32:10
  there
• 32:11
  is that,
• 32:12
  uh,
• 32:13
  I hope,
• 32:13
  I hope you took advantage
• 32:15
  of the pain that I was.
• 32:16
  I was suffering through.
• 32:17
  Unfortunately,
• 32:17
  there's no way for you to do that for my broken elbow,
• 32:20
  but,
• 32:20
  uh,
• 32:20
  you know,
• 32:21
  it is what it is.
• 32:21
  I want to talk a little sports.
• 32:22
  I wanted to bring in,
• 32:23
  uh,
• 32:23
  Brent Evans.
• 32:24
  He's actually the president of Predictable Media,
• 32:27
  runs this company,
• 32:27
  and is also
• 32:28
  the guy kind of behind the scenes who does a lot of,
• 32:30
  uh,
• 32:30
  building the research,
• 32:31
  the predictable terminal that we use
• 32:33
  to look at,
• 32:33
  uh,
• 32:33
  positions,
• 32:34
  uh,
• 32:35
  and works in the,
• 32:36
  uh,
• 32:36
  our sports world quite a bit.
• 32:38
  Uh,
• 32:38
  and,
• 32:38
  uh,
• 32:39
  Brent,
• 32:39
  welcome to the program.
• 32:41
  Oh wow,
• 32:42
  look at you,
• 32:42
  you're on the course today.
• 32:45
  I just wanted you to see what,
• 32:46
  what you would have had,
• 32:48
  had you not broken both of your elbows.
• 32:49
  This is actually the course that,
• 32:51
  uh,
• 32:51
  the President's Cup is,
• 32:53
  is featured at this weekend,
• 32:54
  but,
• 32:54
  uh,
• 32:54
  yeah,
• 32:54
  it's great to be on.
• 32:55
  Yeah,
• 32:56
  there's a,
• 32:56
  there was a trip I was on that I was actually going to go play or not play,
• 32:59
  honestly,
• 32:59
  cause I,
• 33:00
  I screwed my shoulder up too.
• 33:02
  Uh,
• 33:02
  but,
• 33:02
  uh,
• 33:02
  at least go visit this course,
• 33:04
  and it's an incredible course,
• 33:05
  very well known.
• 33:05
  What is it called?
• 33:06
  Is it Medina,
• 33:07
  Medina?
• 33:07
  I don't know how to pronounce it.
• 33:09
  Yes,
• 33:10
  OK.
• 33:11
  One of,
• 33:11
  one of the two,
• 33:12
  whatever it is.
• 33:13
  Uh,
• 33:13
  before we get to the golf though,
• 33:14
  uh,
• 33:14
  Brent,
• 33:14
  I wanted to,
• 33:15
  uh,
• 33:15
  first of all,
• 33:15
  bring up the NFL tracker.
• 33:17
  We did an NFL draft on the show.
• 33:18
  We're tracking results.
• 33:19
  You were tracking your results as well for people who got in.
• 33:22
  Let's look at what this looks like right now.
• 33:24
  And if you see right now,
• 33:25
  first place is KT,
• 33:27
  uh,
• 33:27
  with,
• 33:28
  uh,
• 33:28
  what,
• 33:28
  what I can't read the percentages.
• 33:29
  My eyeballs are terrible.
• 33:31
  Uh,
• 33:31
  but he's up,
• 33:32
  uh,
• 33:32
  a lot,
• 33:33
  uh,
• 33:33
  well,
• 33:34
  well ahead of any of the actual people on the show.
• 33:36
  Brent though,
• 33:37
  leading the staff,
• 33:38
  uh,
• 33:39
  up.
• 33:39
  Uh,
• 33:39
  up,
• 33:40
  uh,
• 33:40
  you know,
• 33:40
  30%,
• 33:41
  something like that.
• 33:42
  Uh,
• 33:42
  I can't read it.
• 33:43
  I really just need to get my eyeballs or 12%,
• 33:45
  15%,
• 33:46
  something like that.
• 33:47
  I don't know.
• 33:47
  I'm down.
• 33:48
  Dan is down.
• 33:49
  Keith
• 33:50
  having a catastrophe so far.
• 33:51
  I actually was doing really well.
• 33:52
  I think it was one of
• 33:53
  near first place after the first week,
• 33:55
  but week two was devastating.
• 33:56
  We will see where this goes to the end of the year.
• 33:58
  Uh,
• 33:58
  but thanks so much for joining us on,
• 34:00
  on that.
• 34:00
  Uh,
• 34:01
  congratulations,
• 34:01
  Brent,
• 34:02
  since you're the guy,
• 34:02
  uh,
• 34:03
  leading the staff right now,
• 34:04
  I guess you're the guy to go to
• 34:06
  for some NFL positions
• 34:07
  this weekend.
• 34:08
  What are you looking at?
• 34:10
  Yeah,
• 34:10
  the point of that whole thing is y'all were all in the red.
• 34:12
  I'm in the green,
• 34:13
  so that's all that matters.
• 34:15
  We noticed,
• 34:15
  we noticed,
• 34:16
  and I know you did as well.
• 34:18
  Yeah,
• 34:18
  it's a fun,
• 34:19
  it's a fun time to be part of,
• 34:20
  you know,
• 34:21
  sports and looking things on Calci
• 34:23
  all the time.
• 34:24
  There's,
• 34:24
  I mean,
• 34:24
  there's
• 34:25
  so many things this time of year.
• 34:27
  You got baseball,
• 34:27
  you got basketball starting up soon,
• 34:29
  you got hockey,
• 34:30
  of course,
• 34:31
  you got the NFL
• 34:32
  and college football.
• 34:33
  Uh,
• 34:33
  there's still some golf out there,
• 34:35
  we'll talk about it in a minute,
• 34:36
  but
• 34:36
  coming up tonight,
• 34:37
  we've got a,
• 34:38
  uh,
• 34:38
  a,
• 34:39
  a Falcons,
• 34:39
  which I took
• 34:41
  them
• 34:41
  only having
• 34:43
  5 wins or less.
• 34:45
  I mean,
• 34:45
  I took the under on them having 6 wins.
• 34:47
  So,
• 34:48
  uh,
• 34:49
  they're going into Green Bay tonight.
• 34:51
  I don't
• 34:52
  really like
• 34:54
  anything about them
• 34:55
  being in Green Bay.
• 34:56
  I mean,
• 34:56
  their quarterback situation is a mess.
• 34:58
  Um,
• 34:59
  they're,
• 34:59
  they're really not looking like they have a cohesive,
• 35:03
  uh,
• 35:03
  strategy,
• 35:03
  and I know Keith was
• 35:05
  a big,
• 35:05
  a big,
• 35:06
  uh,
• 35:06
  Falcons fan,
• 35:07
  but
• 35:08
  Their,
• 35:08
  their chances tonight aren't great,
• 35:09
  but on Cal Street,
• 35:10
  if you look at it,
• 35:11
  I mean,
• 35:12
  there's,
• 35:13
  there's some probably value there for the Green Bay Packers at 70 cents,
• 35:17
  I would say.
• 35:18
  Um,
• 35:18
  I like them,
• 35:19
  uh,
• 35:20
  there.
• 35:20
  So for me,
• 35:21
  uh,
• 35:23
  I still am not seeing a win in the,
• 35:25
  uh,
• 35:25
  Atlanta Falcons' future tonight.
• 35:27
  Uh,
• 35:27
  you know,
• 35:27
  it's interesting.
• 35:28
  I mean,
• 35:28
  there is,
• 35:28
  I'm surprised it's only 69.
• 35:30
  Although,
• 35:30
  you know,
• 35:31
  look,
• 35:31
  the Packers have their injury issues as well.
• 35:33
  They have not looked good at all,
• 35:34
  really this year.
• 35:36
  Pennix is back at quarterback for the Falcons,
• 35:39
  uh,
• 35:39
  so maybe some of their early season,
• 35:41
  uh,
• 35:42
  issues
• 35:43
  might improve a little bit in this game,
• 35:44
  but you still like,
• 35:46
  uh,
• 35:46
  Packers at,
• 35:46
  at 69 cents.
• 35:48
  Um,
• 35:49
  let's go to your second game here.
• 35:50
  Uh,
• 35:51
  uh,
• 35:51
  Brent,
• 35:52
  we've got,
• 35:52
  uh,
• 35:53
  oh gosh,
• 35:54
  the Eagles,
• 35:55
  Eagles and Bears.
• 35:57
  This is,
• 35:57
  uh,
• 35:58
  I don't know this,
• 35:58
  you're doing this to torture me.
• 36:00
  Uh,
• 36:00
  what,
• 36:00
  what do you have on the Eagles and Bears?
• 36:02
  Well,
• 36:02
  it's an interesting game,
• 36:03
  of course,
• 36:04
  because again,
• 36:04
  you know,
• 36:05
  Caleb Williams got hurt last weekend and
• 36:07
  there were some funny memes kinda like Tim
• 36:09
  was
• 36:10
  President Trump,
• 36:11
  you know,
• 36:11
  raising his fist to mean that people were putting him in that position of,
• 36:14
  uh,
• 36:14
  it's true,
• 36:15
  he looked like he got shot by a,
• 36:16
  by an assault weapon
• 36:18
  and apparently he pulled his hamstring.
• 36:20
  Uh,
• 36:20
  it was,
• 36:20
  it was a very dramatic scene on the field though,
• 36:23
  I will say that.
• 36:24
  Yeah,
• 36:24
  he had his towel over his head for a long period of time and pulls it off and
• 36:28
  shows this,
• 36:28
  but anyway,
• 36:29
  so I think,
• 36:30
  you know,
• 36:30
  there again,
• 36:31
  there's really no
• 36:33
  sense of confidence in the quarterback position there going into it.
• 36:36
  In fact,
• 36:37
  They're saying possibly Case Keenum could be
• 36:40
  the uh starting quarterback who's third string,
• 36:42
  and that's not good.
• 36:43
  And so you've got a situation where I think both,
• 36:46
  both teams want to,
• 36:48
  uh,
• 36:48
  to,
• 36:49
  to make sure that they're sending a message.
• 36:50
  The Eagles are 2-0,
• 36:52
  uh,
• 36:52
  and I don't ever like to see the Eagles go 2-0,
• 36:55
  but they are 2-0.
• 36:56
  They wanna remain,
• 36:57
  uh,
• 36:57
  strong.
• 36:59
  But they're going into Soldier Field,
• 37:00
  so I think there's an interesting,
• 37:02
  uh,
• 37:02
  situation with the
• 37:04
  Bears at 32 cents and you had mentioned before the show that
• 37:07
  you're not super crazy about
• 37:09
  the Eagles
• 37:10
  offensive line and they've got,
• 37:12
  they've got some issues and
• 37:13
  it,
• 37:14
  it's not gonna be.
• 37:16
  I'm,
• 37:16
  I'm sorry to say this,
• 37:17
  dude,
• 37:17
  but it's not gonna be just rainbows
• 37:20
  and,
• 37:20
  you know,
• 37:21
  blue skies forever for your Eagles.
• 37:23
  So I,
• 37:23
  I think there's some value there for the Bears actually,
• 37:26
  uh,
• 37:26
  going into it.
• 37:26
  If you keep a,
• 37:27
  keep an eye on the quarterback situation,
• 37:29
  look at it,
• 37:30
  there might be some value there,
• 37:30
  but I do still,
• 37:31
  I see,
• 37:32
  I see the Eagles pulling out a win.
• 37:33
  The Bears are only at 32% at home because,
• 37:36
  you know,
• 37:36
  it looks like Tyson Bagen,
• 37:38
  but I guess maybe,
• 37:39
  uh,
• 37:39
  maybe Case Keenum gets in there and it was,
• 37:41
  well,
• 37:41
  who knows,
• 37:42
  uh,
• 37:42
  that's the only reason the backup.
• 37:43
  Quarterback situation is the only reason this game looks like this.
• 37:45
  The Eagles have not looked good at all,
• 37:47
  honestly,
• 37:48
  with the exception of a couple of drives.
• 37:50
  I mean,
• 37:50
  Jalen Hurts has been really,
• 37:52
  really good,
• 37:52
  um,
• 37:53
  and he's been very,
• 37:54
  very clutch as well.
• 37:55
  But like the offensive line is not the same offensive
• 37:57
  line you're used to with the Philadelphia Eagles right now.
• 37:59
  They're getting old,
• 38:00
  they're injured,
• 38:01
  and it is a,
• 38:02
  it is a cluster up there,
• 38:04
  frankly.
• 38:04
  And I,
• 38:05
  you know,
• 38:05
  what,
• 38:06
  let me
• 38:06
  give one and throw one other market in here before we move on to golf,
• 38:09
  um,
• 38:09
  Brent,
• 38:10
  because
• 38:10
  Uh,
• 38:11
  I,
• 38:11
  I just told you we did really well with the Blue Jays not winning,
• 38:14
  uh,
• 38:14
  and going into the playoffs.
• 38:17
  Let me show you the Eagles market right now.
• 38:18
  The Eagles right now,
• 38:19
  if you kind of look at this,
• 38:20
  and this is the interesting thing I wanna run by you,
• 38:21
  Brent,
• 38:22
  quickly before we get to this next pick.
• 38:23
  Look at this graph.
• 38:24
  What you see there,
• 38:25
  these two massive spikes.
• 38:27
  Uh,
• 38:28
  those are the wins.
• 38:29
  Right?
• 38:30
  That's when they're winning,
• 38:31
  uh,
• 38:32
  their,
• 38:32
  their expected price has gone up.
• 38:35
  I wonder if there's something to take advantage of and there's just those spikes,
• 38:38
  right?
• 38:39
  Like you take advantage,
• 38:40
  you,
• 38:40
  you take a little,
• 38:41
  uh,
• 38:41
  profit and then just get out of it cause there's no reason it should be
• 38:44
  spiking like that,
• 38:45
  um,
• 38:46
  after a,
• 38:46
  a,
• 38:47
  a,
• 38:47
  a win against the Tennessee Titans of all things.
• 38:49
  Um,
• 38:50
  they,
• 38:50
  uh,
• 38:50
  they have looked worse than I think most people would have expected them.
• 38:53
  The fact that it's 11.5 is a,
• 38:55
  is,
• 38:55
  is the projection of the market.
• 38:57
  But I think there's real value if you go down,
• 38:59
  uh,
• 38:59
  Adam,
• 38:59
  on that market a little bit more
• 39:01
  to the individual numbers.
• 39:03
  Look at like,
• 39:04
  you know,
• 39:04
  1213 wins,
• 39:05
  go down there.
• 39:06
  You know,
• 39:07
  this,
• 39:08
  look,
• 39:09
  this team's not winning 14 games.
• 39:11
  OK.
• 39:11
  That's not happening right now.
• 39:12
  You can get no at 87 for 14 wins.
• 39:15
  It's also not winning 13 games.
• 39:16
  I'm sorry,
• 39:17
  I want them to win 13 games.
• 39:18
  I do not believe they're gonna win 13 games.
• 39:20
  I think there's great value,
• 39:22
  uh,
• 39:22
  to get 27,
• 39:23
  uh,
• 39:23
  cents on your 73 cents investment.
• 39:26
  Uh,
• 39:26
  for 13 or more wins.
• 39:27
  This team is just
• 39:29
  not built,
• 39:30
  uh,
• 39:31
  I think structurally to do that well.
• 39:33
  Uh,
• 39:33
  can they make the playoffs?
• 39:34
  Sure.
• 39:34
  I think they're a good team.
• 39:35
  They have a really good defense that I think will actually
• 39:37
  play probably a little bit better than they have so far,
• 39:39
  but I'm a total skeptic at that point.
• 39:41
  Um,
• 39:41
  Brent,
• 39:42
  uh,
• 39:42
  before we go on,
• 39:43
  uh,
• 39:43
  or before we,
• 39:44
  uh,
• 39:44
  finish here,
• 39:45
  we don't have too much time here to go over golf.
• 39:47
  Can you give me a couple of picks
• 39:48
  that you're looking at at the President's Cup this weekend?
• 39:52
  Yeah,
• 39:52
  just,
• 39:53
  just know that the American team,
• 39:55
  the American team is gonna be very highly favored.
• 39:57
  Uh,
• 39:57
  right now they're sitting at 88 cents.
• 39:59
  So Team USA,
• 40:00
  uh,
• 40:01
  you can go in,
• 40:02
  they've won the last 10 times they've,
• 40:04
  they've competed.
• 40:05
  So the Ryder Cup is America versus the Europeans.
• 40:08
  The President's Cup,
• 40:09
  which is an alternate year,
• 40:11
  is America versus every other country out there.
• 40:13
  So this is all of your Asian.
• 40:16
  You know,
• 40:16
  South,
• 40:17
  South African countries,
• 40:18
  South American countries
• 40:20
  competing for,
• 40:21
  uh,
• 40:22
  the President's Cup,
• 40:23
  and America is just stacked.
• 40:25
  I mean,
• 40:25
  you've just got Scotty Scheffler and,
• 40:27
  and a whole host of,
• 40:28
  of really solid players.
• 40:29
  So
• 40:30
  at 87 cents,
• 40:31
  I think it's a very
• 40:33
  safe
• 40:33
  position to take.
• 40:34
  Um,
• 40:35
  there's already,
• 40:36
  I was watching
• 40:37
  Scotty Scheffler and
• 40:39
  Um,
• 40:39
  their,
• 40:40
  their,
• 40:41
  their team right now is already one up that I
• 40:42
  just saw we're reporting this a little bit earlier,
• 40:45
  uh,
• 40:45
  in the day,
• 40:45
  and so they're gonna,
• 40:46
  they're gonna do really well.
• 40:47
  So I think 87 cents is a good position there.
• 40:49
  There's some,
• 40:50
  there's some prop positions as well that you can go through.
• 40:53
  I would watch it during this.
• 40:55
  Well,
• 40:55
  during this week,
• 40:56
  this weekend you can watch,
• 40:57
  uh,
• 40:57
  it's like the United States can win by 1 to 5 points.
• 41:00
  That's at 80 cents.
• 41:01
  I,
• 41:02
  I do kind of think that's gonna be
• 41:04
  a
• 41:04
  bit of a blowout this weekend.
• 41:06
  I just,
• 41:07
  and then you can go through and look at individual
• 41:09
  players and see who's gonna win the most points.
• 41:11
  Since we're out of time,
• 41:12
  I don't
• 41:13
  wanna put them all out there right now because there's a lot of information,
• 41:16
  but it is fun to go in there and look at
• 41:18
  who all is gonna be positioned to,
• 41:20
  to do really well this weekend as you watch over the weekend.
• 41:24
  Just follow those props because there's gonna be some value there as
• 41:26
  you watch people um uh either do really well cause there's some
• 41:30
  There's some hype around Scotty,
• 41:31
  but Scotty has not done well in these kinds of formats.
• 41:33
  I mean,
• 41:33
  he's really,
• 41:34
  he's the number one in the world for a reason.
• 41:35
  He can close the deal for
• 41:37
  major tournaments,
• 41:38
  but when he's paired up or he's going match play
• 41:40
  head to head in some of these tournaments,
• 41:42
  he's not that great.
• 41:43
  So I think he's overpriced in some places.
• 41:45
  So there's some value there as well.
• 41:46
  But watch the tournament.
• 41:47
  I know you're not a golfer,
• 41:48
  but
• 41:48
  you know,
• 41:49
  see,
• 41:49
  this is a,
• 41:50
  this is still a good time of year to watch a little golf.
• 41:52
  All right,
• 41:52
  do me a favor,
• 41:53
  uh,
• 41:53
  Brett,
• 41:53
  take your expanded position,
• 41:54
  some of these props and stuff,
• 41:56
  drop them in the chat at predictableshow.com.
• 41:58
  Let people see them.
• 41:59
  Uh,
• 41:59
  and then they can judge you like,
• 42:01
  uh,
• 42:01
  you judge me on my NFL picks,
• 42:03
  uh,
• 42:03
  you know,
• 42:03
  where I'm a little bit down.
• 42:04
  Just,
• 42:04
  it's,
• 42:05
  it's week two,
• 42:05
  relax,
• 42:06
  OK?
• 42:06
  We got plenty of time in this season.
• 42:08
  Uh,
• 42:08
  Brent Evans,
• 42:08
  uh,
• 42:08
  he's the president of Predictable Media.
• 42:10
  Uh,
• 42:11
  go to predictableShow.com.
• 42:12
  If you click on the chat,
• 42:13
  uh,
• 42:13
  feature,
• 42:14
  Brent's gonna put his picks right there.
• 42:15
  You can check them out.
• 42:16
  Uh,
• 42:17
  and,
• 42:17
  and,
• 42:17
  and look them over and see if you want to go on or,
• 42:19
  or you can make fun of them as well.
• 42:20
  Brent,
• 42:21
  thanks so much for joining us.
• 42:22
  Uh,
• 42:22
  we'll talk to you soon.
• 42:24
  Thanks.
• 42:34
  It's time for,
• 42:36
  here's what I kind of like,
• 42:37
  and this doesn't mean I've done deep,
• 42:39
  deep research or have some incredible understanding of this.
• 42:41
  It's just someone I saw and I,
• 42:43
  I,
• 42:43
  I kinda like it.
• 42:44
  I maybe take a little position in it to a little get my beak wet,
• 42:47
  that's all.
• 42:48
  Um,
• 42:48
  it's about game of the year.
• 42:51
  Um,
• 42:52
  and it's about Grand Theft Auto 6.
• 42:55
  Now,
• 42:55
  this headline comes out,
• 42:56
  history says GTA 6 may be the biggest game of the year,
• 43:00
  but not the best.
• 43:01
  And that's kind of what
• 43:02
  started me on this and that like,
• 43:03
  it's getting so much hype,
• 43:05
  so much publicity.
• 43:06
  Are the awards gonna go to it though?
• 43:09
  You know,
• 43:09
  everyone's hyping it up.
• 43:10
  It just doesn't seem to me,
• 43:12
  uh,
• 43:13
  I have this inclination to go against hype,
• 43:15
  but I,
• 43:16
  that's not enough to necessarily take a position.
• 43:18
  I ran into this case though I thought was interesting.
• 43:21
  This one's from Odd Shopper.
• 43:23
  Uh,
• 43:23
  Odd Shopper,
• 43:24
  maybe we get this guy on.
• 43:25
  I'd be interested to talk to him about it.
• 43:26
  Uh,
• 43:26
  Game of the year 2026 odds.
• 43:28
  Is GTA 6 even on the ballot?
• 43:31
  Makes a really interesting case.
• 43:33
  Will GTA 6 actually be eligible for this award?
• 43:37
  He says probably
• 43:38
  by one day.
• 43:40
  The game awards publishes a cutoff each year
• 43:42
  and the game has to be out on or before it.
• 43:44
  The cutoff has landed on the 3rd Friday of November in all but the last eight cycles,
• 43:49
  and this year,
• 43:50
  that Friday is November 20th,
• 43:52
  1 day after GTA 6 launches.
• 43:54
  Measured against every cutoff actually used since 2018,
• 43:57
  November 19th release date qualifies exactly half of the time.
• 44:02
  Eligibility is closer to a coin flip than a formality.
• 44:06
  And it is the easier of the two gates.
• 44:08
  Then will the jury vote for it?
• 44:10
  Goes through that case as well.
• 44:12
  They ran some,
• 44:12
  uh,
• 44:13
  you know,
• 44:13
  uh,
• 44:13
  AI models and panels against it.
• 44:16
  They think that it has about a 25%,
• 44:19
  28% chance
• 44:20
  to,
• 44:20
  uh,
• 44:21
  to potentially win in these models.
• 44:23
  Let's look at the actual market here though.
• 44:26
  What you see is Grand Theft Auto,
• 44:27
  the overwhelming favorite at 70% chance to win.
• 44:31
  Now,
• 44:31
  look,
• 44:32
  I'm no game expert.
• 44:33
  I just don't know exactly,
• 44:34
  but
• 44:34
  If the chances are,
• 44:35
  if it's realistic that it's only fifty-fifty that it even gets
• 44:39
  eligible for this nomination.
• 44:41
  I think there's some value there,
• 44:42
  so it's one
• 44:44
  I kinda like.
• 44:45
  Join us at predictableShow.com for more incredible analysis just like that.
• 44:48
  We appreciate you joining us.
• 44:49
  Uh,
• 44:50
  would you make sure to join as a uh sub.
• 44:52
  We're gonna have Stu's picks
• 44:53
  out tomorrow.
• 44:54
  I'm gonna release new ones.
• 44:55
  It'll be over 300 picks for you to see on all prediction markets
• 44:58
  for,
• 44:59
  uh,
• 44:59
  you to judge however you like.
• 45:01
  It's at predictableshow.com as part of,
• 45:02
  part of the premium subscription.
• 45:04
  We'll see you
• 45:05
  a little bit later on.