Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 213: Insider Trading Speculation and the Rollercoaster Cattle Market with Samantha Cozza-Wright

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213: Insider Trading Speculation and the Rollercoaster Cattle Market with Samantha Cozza-Wright · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  In today's market report episode, Samantha Kozar, right,
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  We are breaking down everything in the US cattle markets that we
• 0:06
  are seeing. This week is a very volatile
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  time out there and Samantha is breaking everything down from
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  what we are seeing on the board to what we are also seeing in
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  the live cattle market. We touch on a little bit of
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  everything today and bringing in a lot of current events, some
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  speculated insider trading that we may be seeing in the
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  industry. And then we're also touching on
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  what we can anticipate and expect for the rest of 2025 and
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  as we go into 2026. Without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and hear from Samantha. But before we do, if you guys
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  could take a second. If you're watching on YouTube,
• 0:35
  make sure that you subscribe to our show and that you like this
• 0:38
  episode. If you're watching on any of our
• 0:40
  other podcasting platforms, make sure you take a second to go
• 0:43
  rate and review this episode and also go follow our show.
• 0:47
  Without further ado, let's hear from Samantha.
• 0:53
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 0:56
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the update
• 1:00
  shaping agriculture today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Samantha, welcome back to the
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  podcast. How are you?
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  How was your Thanksgiving? How was life and north northwest
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  Kansas, North Central Kansas, whatever you consider.
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  It's good you're starting to get right into winter.
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  We had a light dusting of snow on Monday.
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  Temps are dropping, so getting pretty cold.
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  I saw that you guys had some snow in Manhattan maybe over the
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  weekend. Yeah.
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  Quite a bit, quite a bit of snow at least waited until December
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  1st to really stick to the ground.
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  It did snow this weekend, but then it waited until Monday to
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  actually accumulate, which was perfect timing.
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  I'm like, you know what, it's December.
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  I can be OK with this. I can be OK with some snow
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  accumulating, but I tell you what, it is slicker than shit
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  out there right now. It is just an ice skating rink.
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  I had spin class this morning at 6:00 AM, bright and early, and
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  we went to it and I was like, I feel like a grandma driving on
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  these roads right now because I don't think Manhattan, the city
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  of Manhattan, was ready for the snow.
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  Yeah, I would rather drive in anything but ice.
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  That is the worst. Oh, I I agree with that tenfold.
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  But winter is here. It is here in full force.
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  I am, I don't care when it starts.
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  I don't think we're ever fully ready for it as producers.
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  I am not ready for the phone calls back from the ranch saying
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  like, hey, we need your help calving or things like that.
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  But it's it's the joys of it so. Yeah, I didn't realize how late
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  into the year we were until we pray.
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  Checked and you know our cows were seven months along and it's
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  like holy crap, calving season is going to be here in two
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  months. Not ready for it?
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  Literally, before we know it, before we know it, you're going
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  to have a newborn. And you know what?
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  When you get up for evening feedings to feed your baby, your
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  husband can get up at the same time and go to go.
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  Check out Yeah. Yeah, like, hey, we're both just
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  not going to get any sleep right now.
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  Schedules. What's that?
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  Exactly. Jeez.
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  Well, what is going on with the markets this week?
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  We've had kind of a all over the place week, but what are your
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  thoughts on what we're seeing right now?
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  A lot of volatility. That seems to be a very popular
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  word in the cattle industry they these days, but I think it
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  speaks a lot of volumes for lack of better terms.
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  You know, in a week's time, more so just four days because we had
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  that Thanksgiving holiday off. We went from being limit down on
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  Monday to you know up $19.00 a hundred weight on January feeder
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  cattle. So your Friday and your Saturday
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  sales, if you were able to catch them in the auction barns last
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  week definitely caught the positive end of that market.
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  Cash was really strong, especially in the north on some
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  spots. We we were even back up to those
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  October highs. So that was very positive, a
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  very positive ways and the holiday week there and then with
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  nothing but a weekend in between already closed lower at the
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  start of this week. That kind of just brings me back
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  to the level of uncertainty on the board that has us all in
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  that fight or flight sort of mindset and other market news.
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  I do believe there's been some insider trading.
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  So I think that's at play to a certain degree.
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  And that just amplifies these moves even more and adds a lot
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  of uncertainty around every corner, especially when we've
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  seen cases of manage money pull out, you know, in the past few
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  months without any really clear explanation as to why.
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  And then all of a sudden you see a news release a day or two
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  later that sort of clears things up.
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  So just to add, you know, a little bit of speculation, but I
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  do think that's at play. So that's kind of what we're
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  seeing there. And you know, it's one thing to
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  be on the outside looking in, but when you've got actual skin
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  in the game, it hits a lot harder.
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  And for people that don't live it, I'm sure a lot of these
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  people are watching do. But for people that don't, I
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  mean, seriously, imagine riding your livelihood on markets that
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  are totally out of your control. So another thing to keep in
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  mind, if just, you know, a few social media comments and
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  Washington narrative that beef's too high can send things into a
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  spiral, It increases the concern for what real physical shifts
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  can do. And those physical shifts that
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  I'm referring to right now anyway, being the beef plant
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  closure in the North. And, and what's kind of been
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  overlooked by that beef plant closure also is the major cut to
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  a single shift facility and Amarillo, Tyson's Amarillo
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  plant, you know, suddenly slaughter capacity gets a lot
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  tighter. When you combine this with live
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  cattle trade soon to be reintroduced from the South and
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  Brazilian beef imports coming in, I could see this putting
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  some heat on the market and giving a lot of leverage to the
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  Packers. Less room to kill cattle and
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  cheaper, cheaper product coming in definitely works in favor of
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  your Packer margins and your corporate feeders, but it
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  doesn't do a lot of good for your producer or or lower the
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  price of beef at the retail counter.
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  So in fact it has the opposite. You know, we've already seen
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  live cattle take a hit. The weighted average price on
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  the negotiated fed cattle trade out of your 5 area feeding
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  region there end of the week at two O 978.
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  You know that's 7O9100 weight lower for the week on your
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  weighted average. So some higher trade late in the
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  week, but not enough volume to pull up that weighted average.
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  I think if we're able to get the fads cleaned up in the north,
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  especially as this colder weather starts to set in, my
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  think that'll also help. But there's not been a lot of
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  volume traded at the negotiated level.
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  So I'd like to see that pick up at some point.
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  But I think we still potentially see fundamentals drive a bullish
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  market or at least help us find sort of a a temporary bottom
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  through the holiday season as far as futures go.
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  Dan made a really good point in his market commentary yesterday
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  and he said, you know, manage money, doesn't have to trade the
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  fundamentals. So that puts more bears in the
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  bullpen on a positive note. Like I said, cash is good.
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  There's a lot of high demand right now for placements and
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  feeder stock in the market. So I think as we get into year
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  end, cash will carry us through. Yeah, absolutely.
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  There's a lot going on with the markets right now.
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  And I think the biggest thing is like we are seeing so much
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  pressure from Washington and so much pressure from the media to
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  drop these prices of beef. And you said it so perfectly
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  that everything that is happening right now is going to
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  have the opposite effect. Like we are seeing so much
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  pressure be put on these markets from different outside factors.
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  And it is it's crazy right now. And it it does truly make you
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  feel it a lot more when you've got that skin in the game
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  because you're sitting here saying, OK, like my entire
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  livelihood is based on what social media saying today.
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  What Washington decides to put a report out on what the futures
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  markets decide to do and people that live in a high rise in the
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  middle of a major metropolitan area decide to do on trading
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  this day. It so just up to the odds and it
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  puts a lot of pressure on us as producers to sit and live that.
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  I'd love to hear kind of, I know it's all speculation, but some
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  more thoughts on the insider trading thing that you're kind
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  of speculating on right now, Samantha?
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  We've been seeing and as specifically going back to the
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  tariff news that was released, released when we removed that
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  40% Brazilian beef tariff, we saw the markets kind of actually
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  there were limit down on the Wednesday prior to the actual
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  news release on Friday. So I think that had a lot to do
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  with insider trading. As we move into the more recent
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  news of the Packer plant closures, you, you know, see a
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  lot of market analysts in the news.
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  You see a lot of different speculators come out and say, Oh
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  yeah, it was leaked. Really.
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  OK, well, that's insider trading.
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  Think of all these people that put hedges on when this news
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  leaked and then cashed out when the market fell.
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  And, you know, they gained a lot of money from that.
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  So I'm like I said it, it's all speculation, but I definitely
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  think that it's something that comes into play.
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  And like I said, when we see these more drastic moves one way
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  or the other, it puts that into perspective.
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  And you're thinking, OK, what news is around the corner that's
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  fueling this and how deep is it going to go?
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  Yeah, absolutely. I think that that's a question
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  that so many producers have on their mind these days,
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  especially with the volatility that we have been seeing in the
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  market over the past few weeks. We come on every single week,
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  you and I and sometimes Dan have the same discussion of what hit
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  the news cycle this week, like what's making the market go up
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  or down this week. And I mean that's just the
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  markets in general, like out any commodity that is, that is what
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  it is. It's kind of the name of the
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  game, but I feel like it is accentuated at a much higher
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  level right now with how much outside pressure we are seeing
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  on the cattle industry and just on the markets in general and
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  how much people are feeling that as we're going into the month of
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  December. What are kind of your thoughts
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  as we go into the holiday season and as we kind of prepare to
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  round out the rest of 2025? I really think holiday demand is
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  going to drive us through the end of the year.
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  Like I said, there's a high demand for replacements and
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  feeders right now. Feed lots need the placements.
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  We're getting into the end of the year and looking at, you
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  know, the end of a tax year as well.
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  So I think people, especially in this industry, producers, what
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  have you, would rather have that money invested then hand it over
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  to the government on a silver platter.
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  So like I said, I really think that we're going to see cash
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  drive us through the end of the year.
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  As we get into the first of the year, I think that's when we're
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  really going to start to see the hits of, like I said, these just
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  different aspects in the industry, whether it be the
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  Tyson plant closure in Lexington, whether it be the
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  shift cutbacks in Amarillo, whether it be the tariff news,
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  the South border opening. I think that's really where
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  we're going to see the effects of that really come into play
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  instead of just the speculation of it.
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  So I think, I think the end of the first of the year is begin
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  going to become more volatile than even what we're seeing now.
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  And like I said, that could really shift in any direction.
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  I think the fundamentals are still leading us.
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  But like I said earlier and like Dan said in his market
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  commentary, people don't have to trade based off fundamentals.
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  So that's something that you also have to take into
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  consideration. Yeah, absolutely.
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  We're definitely seeing a very emotional and kind of trigger
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  happy trading scene right now. And just what the most recent
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  news story is and going back to what you said earlier, we are
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  going to start seeing those physical aspects of pressure on
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  the market going into the new year and going into the rest of
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  this year rather than just the speculation of it.
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  Like right now, we have been seeing a bunch of volatility
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  based on news reports of the southern border opening, news
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  reports of Brazilian beef being imported, news reports of, of
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  shift closures or like Tyson being closed down.
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  We, we haven't quite felt that in the market yet because
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  that's, that's still new, right? And so everything else that is
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  going to continue to happen in the beginning of 2026, we're
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  definitely going to be seeing more of that actual physical
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  push on the market rather than just the emotional news chasing
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  push of market demand, which will be really interesting to
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  see. Hopefully we can make it through
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  calving season and get to spring processing and people are able
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  to see a little bit of recovery by then and not get hit in the
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  same way we did this fall. Right.
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  And then you also factor in, you know, maybe also the uncertainty
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  that's hanging over the market of these things happening has
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  more of effect than the actual physical, you know, moves.
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  So like I said, it could go either way.
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  I think we, as we look into further into 2026, we look at,
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  you know, the regrowth of our domestic herd.
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  And just to throw these numbers out out there, I was looking at
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  some numbers over the weekend and we were talking a little bit
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  about heifer retention in last week's podcast.
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  And I did see that heifer, the heifer to slaughter, heifer to
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  steer ratio in our placements is about 34 per, excuse me, 38%.
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  So really we want to be at that 34% level to really see and
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  signal that we are retaining heifers think we are to some
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  extent, but not to the measures that we need to be to start
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  seeing hard regrowth. So could we see more imports
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  replace that domestic demand, that's something we could also
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  see. So like I said, it'll be it'll
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  be very interesting as we move into the first of the year.
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  Yeah, absolutely. Going back to that heifer
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  retention conversation that we had last week, it's definitely
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  one of those things that you look at it and you're like, we
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  would love for people to be retaining heifers at a rate that
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  we are able to produce what we need to supply that domestic
• 14:20
  demand. But at the same time, you look
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  at the markets and you look at every single area that producers
• 14:27
  have been absolutely getting backhanded in the past six
• 14:30
  months to a year when those decisions have been being made.
• 14:34
  Like those decisions got made this fall.
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  And you looked at the markets. And it's hard to validate when
• 14:42
  our input costs are so high to sit there and say, yeah, I can
• 14:47
  afford to keep this heifer right now and feed her for two years
• 14:52
  before she actually produces anything for.
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  Me right? It's a really difficult scene
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  for a lot of producers out there and I know so many people are on
• 15:00
  both sides of the fence. Some people have been like, I'm
• 15:02
  just biting the bullet right now.
• 15:04
  I'm going to go get another operating loan, it'll be OK in a
• 15:07
  couple years. And then there's some people
• 15:08
  that are like, no, those girls are going to the sale barn and
• 15:11
  I'm going to buy 2 year olds that are bred and get that
• 15:15
  immediate return. I've been seeing both ends of
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  the coin there and it's very interesting to see how producers
• 15:21
  in different regions, different areas have been making those
• 15:24
  decisions for their operations as we move forward.
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  Yeah, that's exactly right. And if there was that certainty
• 15:29
  in the market as we move further into the year, I think more
• 15:32
  people would be retaining efforts.
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  But when you have this level of volatility, it doesn't give you
• 15:37
  a lot of certainty to be able to follow through with that.
• 15:39
  I mean, at the end of the day, you got to look out for yourself
• 15:42
  and it and your livelihood. And like you said, when you have
• 15:45
  all these high input cost factoring in and you have
• 15:48
  Washington and the media coming into it and wrecking your your
• 15:52
  markets, $80 a hundred weight on feeder cattle and makes things
• 15:56
  tough. Yeah, it absolutely does.
• 15:58
  It really makes it difficult to be a producer that is back home
• 16:03
  at the end of the day, relying on what the media is saying.
• 16:07
  And going back to what we've talked about at the beginning of
• 16:10
  this, the fact that there is so much out of our control in these
• 16:13
  markets and it makes it really difficult sometimes to be a
• 16:16
  cattle producer because of those aspects.
• 16:19
  But I know that there is a lot of hope going into the new year
• 16:22
  that we're able to start seeing some more stability in the
• 16:25
  markets. Going back to what you just
• 16:27
  said, Samantha too of the fact that like that's my hope for the
• 16:29
  New year, like some predictability, not it's only so
• 16:32
  predictable, right, Like we're dealing with a commodity at the
• 16:35
  end of the day, but at least a little bit of that stability for
• 16:38
  these producers as we go into the spring and as we get ready
• 16:41
  to make those decisions again with our spring cavers of what
• 16:45
  we're going to be doing there and the decisions that are going
• 16:47
  to be made going forward for our cattle industry.
• 16:50
  Right, I completely agree. Absolutely, absolutely.
• 16:54
  Any other closing thoughts as we run out the podcast today,
• 16:57
  Samantha, on anything else market related, anything else
• 16:59
  that we kind of missed today? I don't think so.
• 17:02
  Wonderful. Awesome, awesome.
• 17:04
  Well, thank you so much for your thoughts, your insight,
• 17:07
  everything like that. To all of our listeners out
• 17:09
  there, it is a very volatile time in the cattle industry
• 17:12
  right now. If you are looking to get
• 17:14
  coverage on anything, look into LRPS, anything like that, make
• 17:19
  sure you head down to the show notes down below.
• 17:20
  You can get a hold of Samantha or another team member from our
• 17:23
  Cattle USA insurance team to discuss your options for you and
• 17:27
  your operation. Every single cattle business is
• 17:29
  completely different and it is always great to just get on the
• 17:32
  phone with someone and hear what can work for you in your
• 17:35
  operation and just hear from someone from our team.
• 17:38
  So if you are interested in any of that, check out the show
• 17:40
  notes below and you can get in contact with our team to do
• 17:42
  that. Samantha, thank you for your
• 17:44
  time and to all of our listeners.
• 17:45
  We will see you next time on another episode of the Cattle
• 17:47
  USA Daily Podcast. Have a good one y'all.