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Will There Be a Blue Wave in 2026? · Pod Save America

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  Speaker 1: Positive America is brought to you by MS Now. We
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• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Welcome to Positive America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. One year ago,
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump won the popular vote, swept all seven battleground
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  Speaker 2: states and made major gains, Latino voters and younger voters.
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  Speaker 2: But earlier this month, Democrats notched big wins in New Jersey,
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  Speaker 2: Virginia and several other states, thanks in part to winning
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  Speaker 2: back some of the very same voters who had swung
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  Speaker 2: to Trump last year. So what happened? What does it
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  Speaker 2: tell us about the midterms next year? Can Democrats actually
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  Speaker 2: take back the House and the Senate? And where do
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  Speaker 2: things stand with Donald Trump's ongoing efforts to rig the
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  Speaker 2: midterm elections? Joining me to break all of this down
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  Speaker 2: is Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: Amy is one of the sharpest political analysts in the
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  Speaker 2: country with a granular understanding of races in every corner
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  Speaker 2: of the map. There is no better person to give
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  Speaker 2: us a lay of the political landscape as we head
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  Speaker 2: into the midterms. Amy Walter. Welcome back to Pod Save America.
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  Speaker 3: Well, hello. Can I just say, Dan, that I got
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  Speaker 3: cool points from my sister.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, interesting.
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  Speaker 3: Who said, oh my gosh, my friends heard you. They
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  Speaker 3: don't have any idea what I do. But if I'm
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  Speaker 3: on Pod Save America, now suddenly I'm cool.
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  Speaker 2: There's nothing that says cool like an appearance on a
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  Speaker 2: political podcast run by a bunch of 40-somethings. Yes. Exactly.
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  Speaker 3: So now we are hip.
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  Speaker 2: All right. We got a lot to talk about today.
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  Speaker 2: I want to get into the 2025 elections, the state
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  Speaker 2: of redistricting, battles for the House and the Senate. This
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  Speaker 2: is an important podcast because it's going to air on Sunday,
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  Speaker 2: the historically worst travel day in America. So people are
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  Speaker 2: going to get our takes as they are stuck in
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  Speaker 2: airports or in traffic going up and down I-95 or
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  Speaker 2: wherever else. So we got a lot to talk about here.
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  Speaker 2: All right, let's start with the 2025 elections. The Democrats
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  Speaker 2: had huge wins. It was a rare positive day for
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  Speaker 2: the Democratic Party in the last year or so. One
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  Speaker 2: in New Jersey, one in Virginia, one in California, one
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  Speaker 2: in New York City, one in Georgia. You know, sort
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  Speaker 2: of one everywhere, one by bigger margins than people expected.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: What was your take on what powered those wins? And
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  Speaker 2: were you surprised by the margins?
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  Speaker 3: Definitely surprised by the margins. Yeah. if you look at
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  Speaker 3: the margins in Georgia and New Jersey, right, you could, look, Dan,
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  Speaker 3: you know well enough that the focus inside the Beltway
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  Speaker 3: is often where it's, where are we closest to? And
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  Speaker 3: so Virginia got a great deal of attention. New Jersey
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  Speaker 3: doesn't get as much. Certainly Georgia didn't get as much.
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  Speaker 3: So to see big double digit wins there by Democrats,
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  Speaker 3: certainly pretty instructive. I think What I learned from it is, first,
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  Speaker 3: there is, despite all of the hand-wringing among Democrats for
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: these last, well, eight months since the election, that the
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  Speaker 3: party is fractured and leaderless and rudderless. Democratic voters want
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  Speaker 3: to show up and vote. They may not like the party,
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  Speaker 3: but they dislike Trump and they dislike Republicans more. So,
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  Speaker 3: The party is motivated. I think that was answered question
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  Speaker 3: number one. Number two was the question about whether this
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  Speaker 3: realignment that we saw in 2020 for was just was
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  Speaker 3: a realignment or a dealignment or just a one off.
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  Speaker 3: I don't think we can answer that question until we
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  Speaker 3: get to 2028. So I want to be very careful
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  Speaker 3: how I say this.
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  Speaker 2: Could you explain why that is? Why 2028 is more
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  Speaker 2: indicative than 25 or even 26?
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  Speaker 3: That's right. Just the kinds of people who show up
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  Speaker 3: in an off-year election are very different than the people
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  Speaker 3: who show up in a presidential election. And also, as
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  Speaker 3: we know, Dan, in the next four years, people are
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  Speaker 3: going to move in and out of the electorate, whether
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  Speaker 3: they age in or they leave for reasons they didn't
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  Speaker 3: really want for other purposes.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, for other actuarial reasons.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, yes. So I think you have to be really
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  Speaker 3: careful not to look at the results, say, of 2025
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  Speaker 3: and say, wow, okay, well, Democrats, quote unquote, fixed their
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  Speaker 3: Latino problem or fixed their young people problem. Or Donald
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: Trump now has so alienated Latinos that they're never going
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  Speaker 3: to come back to Republicans. I don't think you can
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  Speaker 3: say that. What you can say, though, is that the
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  Speaker 3: kinds of people who are showing up to vote in
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  Speaker 3: these off-year elections, which a midterm election will have higher
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  Speaker 3: turnout than, say, a 2025 electorate, but it suggests that
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  Speaker 3: the people who are the most interested in turning out,
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  Speaker 3: especially among these voters of color, also happen to dislike
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  Speaker 3: what Republicans are selling or what Republicans have done. So
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  Speaker 3: if you are sitting in, let's say, in New Jersey,
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  Speaker 3: there's the ninth district there, which is one that swung,
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  Speaker 3: I think, the most of any state, of any district
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  Speaker 3: last cycle. And it went for Sheryl this time by
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: 20 points. So won by Trump by barely a point,
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  Speaker 3: swung to Sheryl by 20 points. I think that has
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  Speaker 3: implications for districts in Texas, districts in the Central Valley
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  Speaker 3: in California, obviously in New Jersey. So that was instructive.
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  Speaker 3: And I do think that this idea we hear affordability
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  Speaker 3: as the watchword. I do think the fact that every
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  Speaker 3: candidate talked about that in a way that voters were
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  Speaker 3: saw as believable. And to me, New Jersey was the
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  Speaker 3: best test of this because it is a, obviously, this
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  Speaker 3: was a gubernatorial race. Theoretically, the top concern for voters
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  Speaker 3: in a gubernatorial race should be what's happening in my state.
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  Speaker 3: Do you think things are going well in your state?
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  Speaker 3: Do you think they're not? The nationals shouldn't influence it.
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  Speaker 3: But what became very clear was that even as voters
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  Speaker 3: in that state, frustrated by Trenton, definitely liked the idea
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  Speaker 3: of a change from having a, you know, Democrats were
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  Speaker 3: in charge of the government for two years, open to
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  Speaker 3: that idea, think taxes are too high in the state.
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  Speaker 3: It was their opinions about Trump and the national environment
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  Speaker 3: that really moved them. And Virginia was the same. I mean,
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: Glenn Youngkin, people liked If you look at the exit polls,
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  Speaker 3: people like Glenn Youngkin. People think the state of Virginia
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  Speaker 3: is doing pretty well. That would be a reason if
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: you're a Republican, if you just saw Glenn Youngkin's approval
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  Speaker 3: rating and how people felt about Virginia, that looks like
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  Speaker 3: a pretty good environment to be a Republican.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the New Jersey, Virginia is like,
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  Speaker 2: I think sure. Spanberger's margin is quite notable, but it's
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  Speaker 2: also just historically, this is what Virginia does. Yeah.
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  Speaker 5: Right.
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  Speaker 2: And every year by 2013. And what is this? It's 1975.
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  Speaker 2: The Republican Party that lost the previous presidential election wins
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  Speaker 2: the election. We've been flipping, you know, every year.
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  Speaker 3: Every year. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: But New Jersey, like you really hit on something really
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  Speaker 2: important about New Jersey, which is if you were mad
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  Speaker 2: about affordability based on your own like financial circumstances, theoretically.
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  Speaker 2: you should be really mad at the Democrats who've been
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  Speaker 2: in charge of Virginia for the last eight years. And
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  Speaker 2: then you have- Of New Jersey. Of New Jersey, yes. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: New Jersey, yes. If you live in New Jersey, you
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  Speaker 2: should be because, and every election, every election is a
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  Speaker 2: change election. It's why Democrats were pretty worried about Sheryl
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  Speaker 2: was winning the third, even in a Democratic state, winning
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  Speaker 2: the third gubernatorial election in a row is very hard. Yet,
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  Speaker 2: not only did you see Democrats turn out for a Democrat,
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  Speaker 2: which is notable and important, but you saw a, you know,
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  Speaker 2: based on exit polls, which we'll have all the caveats
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  Speaker 2: with them, but seven percent of in the expo seven
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  Speaker 2: percent of trump 2024 voters voted for a democrat and
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  Speaker 2: that's even more voted for cheryl but what's even more
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  Speaker 2: interesting about that to me is the if you are
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  Speaker 2: voting in a off-year gubernatorial election new jersey you're a
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  Speaker 2: pretty engaged political that's right person and so that you
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  Speaker 2: know i sort of think of this in concentric circles
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  Speaker 2: right you have off-year special election voters who are the
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  Speaker 2: most engaged of all then you go out one circle
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  Speaker 2: and you have the midterm election, which has some people who,
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  Speaker 2: you're still pretty engaged in politics, you vote in the midterm,
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  Speaker 2: but you're not so dialed in that you're not missing
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  Speaker 2: the special bond election or city council election in your town.
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  Speaker 2: Then you have presidential electioneers, people who come.
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  Speaker 3: In all the time.
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  Speaker 2: And the fact that like, these highly engaged voters who
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  Speaker 2: voted for Trump switched is, despite Democrats being in charge,
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  Speaker 2: I think is a pretty notable fact that tells us
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  Speaker 2: something about at least the political environment where it is in.
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  Speaker 3: November of 2025.
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  Speaker 2: Exactly.
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  Speaker 3: Where it sits right now. And, you know, I looked
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  Speaker 3: at this poll that came out over the weekend, the
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  Speaker 3: CBS poll. And to me, what would worry me the
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  Speaker 3: most as a Republican is not simply that Trump's approval
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: rating on the economy is low. It's that when you
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: ask voters, do you think Trump has anything to do
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  Speaker 3: with prices going up? And 65% say yes, including like
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  Speaker 3: a third of Republicans. that is a very tough place
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  Speaker 3: to be, right? So when Republicans talk about, well, we
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  Speaker 3: need to do a better job on the affordability, right?
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  Speaker 3: We need to tackle this head on. Part of the
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  Speaker 3: challenge is that they believe that the president himself and
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: his policies have gotten us to this point. It was
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  Speaker 3: when you guys were in the White House, you did
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  Speaker 3: have a certain amount of time in which people gave
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: you a benefit of the doubt because they said, look, ugh,
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  Speaker 3: Obama didn't create this mess. This was there. He walked
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: into it. You got some of that cushion. And I
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  Speaker 3: think Republicans started their initial reaction to why are we
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: getting blamed for inflation when inflation isn't our fault is correct, right?
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  Speaker 3: You'd say, we didn't start this fire. This was started
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: before we came into office. We're dealing with the after
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  Speaker 3: effects of COVID, of the Biden administration, policies and inflation
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  Speaker 3: that accompanied that. But voters think that you do, that
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: Trump and the White House do have something to do
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: with the rising cost of stuff, right? So how do you,
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: you can't do the traditional, which I'll just blame it
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: on the guys who came before me. So now you
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: have to really figure out, all right, how do we
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: tackle affordability in a way that voters believe is, one,
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  Speaker 3: actually working, and two, isn't just passing the buck.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the Obama comparison is really interesting because it was
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: up until 2012. So we've been in office for three
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  Speaker 2: years at that point that people still blame George W.
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  Speaker 2: Bush more than Obama for the state of the economy
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: because there was this precipitating event of the financial crisis
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: and the crash of Lehman Brothers and all that that
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: happened before Obama was president. Everyone knew that. Trump had
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: this gift wrap for him, right? Everyone blamed Biden for
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: the economy. Biden's numbers on inflation were abysmal, came in,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: focused on a bunch of things that weren't inflation, and
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: then did several high-profile announcements to raise people's prices, which
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: is truly one of the more insane things you could
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: possibly do politically. And when you see Navigator Research, the
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: Democratic-aligned polling organization, do word clouds of what they know
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: about Trump, And what they hear in tariffs is always
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: like giant in the middle. It is the thing that
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: people know and they believe Trump's raising their costs. And
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: it really is a pincer movement here for him because
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: they think he raised their costs. They also think in
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: the CBS poll, they ask people, what's the most important
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: issue that you want Trump to focus on? Overwhelmingly, it's inflation.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: What do you think Trump is focusing on? It's like
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  Speaker 2: a fifth of voters say he's focusing on inflation the most.
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  Speaker 2: And so he's both causing the problem. And then being
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: seen as not trying to solve the problem, which is
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: why his numbers are now as bad as Biden's were
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: right before the election on inflation. Right.
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  Speaker 3: And so if you're a Republican looking forward to 2026,
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: you say, all right, so how can we get out
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: of this pincer that we're in? And as you very
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: well know, it is very difficult, even pre the Trump
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: grip on the party. But it is very hard to
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  Speaker 3: run against your party. the party of the president in
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: the White House in a midterm year and be successful.
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: And we see it year after year, right? The Democrats
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: who voted against Obamacare in 2010, they campaigned on that. See,
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: I'm independent. I didn't vote with this Obamacare thing. Voters
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: want to punish the party in power, and you will
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: be punished. The thing you can hope for is, yes,
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: Those same people don't want to punish you as much
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: because they like you for other reasons. And also your
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: base turns up. So you depress your base when you
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: try to distance yourself from the president. But I think
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: in this case, this is why this health care debate
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: has become so fascinating, right? Because in many ways, Trump
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: is correct. He looks at the environment. He sees people
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: are blaming him for high costs. He knows that this
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: ACA extender would— be one tangible piece of evidence to
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: show I'm actually bringing costs down. But he can't do
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: it because Republicans or Congress are like, we voted against
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: Obamacare 60 times. Remember that? Remember how we overturned? And
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: now you're asking us to extend it? But as a
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: political move, if I'm a Republican in a swing district, yes,
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: I would like to vote for something. that I say,
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: I actually am here to lower your costs of healthcare.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: The Obamacare extension thing is interesting because, well, two things. One,
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Trump is making it much harder for himself by coming
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: up with these crazy plans that basically are akin to
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: repealing Obamacare, which is quite an unpopular move and one
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: of the reasons why they lost so many seats in 2018.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: So he could just take the money on the table
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: and just do the two-year or three-year extension, but that's
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: not available to him. And this is where his lame
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: duck status matters because if he was running for reelection
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: in 2028 and he came and said, I need to
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: do this, a rising tide lifts all boats. We got
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: to do this. They would do it. But here you're,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: he's not going to get the swing, the swing Republicans
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: of which there aren't a ton would like to vote
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: for it.
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: The base. doesn't care if Trump is reelected. So absolutely not.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: They care about their own primary. And so you can't
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: do the obvious easy thing, which is, this is like
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: the tariffs. Like it is insane that in an election
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: when affordability is the top issue, the Republicans refuse to
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: open the government or, you know, unshut it down or
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: whatever words you want to use for something that would
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: have benefited them politically on the affordability issue. I mean,
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: there was that polling memo from Tony Fabrizio, who's Trump's
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: pollster from back in the summer. Yeah, which basically said, like,
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: in the swing districts, the generic ballot would go to
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: Democrats plus 15, which I'm a little skeptical of those numbers,
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: and I'm skeptical about who paid for that poll. But
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: either way, Trump's own pollster believes this is very, very
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: bad for them, and they can't fix the problem, which
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: does make me think, and we'll get more deeper into
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: the 2020 election in a second, but it does make
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: me think that they're best play is not going to
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: be to solve the affordability problem. It's going to be
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: hope and pray the economy gets somehow better. And the
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: salience of that issue goes down and try to raise
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: the salience of something else. This is the equivalent of
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Trump in 2018 when the election was about healthcare and taxes,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: tried to make it about the caravan of MS-13 members
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: marching on the border. And so I fully expect to
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: see something like that. I don't think it's a likely
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: successful play, but it is probably their more likely play
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: than trying.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: To come up with some sort of affordability agenda. I mean,
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: and again, what that issue is going to be. Look,
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: if we had been talking at this point in 2021,
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: there was no scenario in which Democrats were not going
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: to lose lots and lots of seats in that midterm, right?
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: After what we saw in New Jersey- and Virginia in
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: those elections, and a Democratic base that was so deeply
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: demoralized and just checked out, and a Republican base that
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: was fired up, and inflation hitting, which we knew was
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: going to be the, you know, sort of real Achilles'
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: heel for Democrats, and then boom, comes the Dobbs announcement
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: in June, and that's where the race, right? Where we
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: went from it being all about inflation to, yes, inflation
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: is still the number one issue, but now we also
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: have this piece. So, I mean, you and I know
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: we've got a long way to go in a year.
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: So it's whether it's we, if there's nothing that is
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: happening outside of the control of the two parties, i.e.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: something that the Supreme Court does or a natural disaster war, yes,
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: I would, you know, if you look at Again, that
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: CBS poll, what I found interesting is even on the
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: issue of immigration, just specifically, if you just ask big
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: picture way, do you approve or disapprove of what the
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: president's doing in enforcement? Not just on is he keeping
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: the border safe, but they specifically used the words like
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: enforcement and dealing with illegal immigration. And he was only
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: underwater by 10%. two or three points. And it's because
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: Republicans support him 90-10 on that, whereas on affordability, he's
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: still losing a third of Republicans on those issues. So
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: independents still don't love how he's dealing with immigration, which
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: is why it's not necessarily going to save those swing
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: state or swing district Republicans. But if you're in a
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: Republican enough district, right, a Trump 9, 10 plus, that
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: could be enough.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the turnout differential isn't enough to eat you over,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: even if you're losing an independence 30-70. Exactly. Exactly.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: This message comes from the International Rescue Committee. I know
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• 21:32
  Speaker 2: To redistricting, right? So earlier this year, Trump sends out
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: a truth. Texas immediately says they're going to redo their maps,
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: pick up five seats. All of a sudden, other states, Missouri, Indiana,
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: are starting to talk about how they're going to do it.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: Democrats are in a full state of panic that, you know,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: They're going to be able to rig themselves into at
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: least a permanent majority of sorts, right? We're just going
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: to be– they're going to take the slight Republican House advantage.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: We're going to make it much bigger. We're not going
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: to– even at a good Democratic year, we weren't going
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: to win the House. As we sit here today, a
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: lot has happened. California has passed Prop 50. Some states
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: have redistricted. Some Democratic states have talked about redistricting. Courts
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: are involved. Where does the battle for the House through
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: this redistricting process stand right now?
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: You don't have to go state by state.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to go state by state, but I
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: think if we just put it in, I'll start really
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: big and then we can go narrow. Right now, my
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: colleagues here at the Cook Political Report, Erin Covey, especially
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: who's tracking this intently. And if you want to look
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: at her redistricting tracker on our site, it's fantastic at cookpolitical.com.
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: But right now she's projecting just if the Texas map,
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: even if the Texas map is upheld, that Republicans gain
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: just two to three seats from the coal process.
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Does that include Florida moving?
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: It does. So what would happen if the new Texas
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: map is upheld?
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: So here's what's happening. Right now, between Texas, North Carolina... Ohio, Missouri,
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: and Florida gets you, let's say, the best case scenario, two, three, four, five, six,
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: that's like nine seats there, something like that, nine or
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: 10 seats there. But then between California, Utah, and now Virginia,
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: which could get you two seats, Now we're talking about
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: Democrats being able to get five or seven seats. So
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: that's where you net out the Republicans getting two seats.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: seats out of this.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: A narrow advantage that would be- Very.
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's very, very narrow. And so these numbers, literally, Dan,
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: like our tracker of how many seats gain or lose.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: I know you guys use fractions in there.
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: Well, it started at Republicans likely to pick up as
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: many as a dozen seats, which is where we started.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: To your point.
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: Net a dozen. A dozen seats, which to your point,
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: when this all first started- and it was this concept
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: of California, maybe having this ballot initiative to, okay, well,
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: maybe now they'll net seven or eight seats.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: Maybe they'll net five to six seats.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: Maybe now it's four. Okay. Now maybe it's, so we're
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: definitely in the low single digits. What happens with Texas
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: becomes really important. And then You know, as I said,
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: Virginia and Florida are the only two really outstanding states.
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: But they could also end up canceling each other out.
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: If Virginia's passed and they get two seats out of
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: that and Florida has two seats, well, there you go.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: And what's interesting is the way that some of these
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: things have fallen, which is Utah, which is obviously a
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: Republican state. Democrats are going to pick up a seat
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: there because of a court decision. Right. in a very
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: Democratic district that's so Democratic that the guy who held
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: it the last time probably can't win the primary there.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: He's too moderate. He's too moderate for the district, which
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: is a wild thing to say about Salt Lake City.
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: And then Ohio, I think this speaks to the Republicans'
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: challenges here, is the Republicans in Ohio cut a bipartisan
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: deal to protect themselves. And so they might pick up
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit there, but the Republicans But they did
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: not push, they did not gerrymander to the max. That's right.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: That's interesting. And then Indiana, they're refusing to do it.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: And I think it does, that to me tells me
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: like two things. One is the reality of gerrymandering, as
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: I said, partisan gerrymandering is there's real risk because there's
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: like this simple mathematical fact that you have a static
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: number of Republicans in the state. And then when you
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: move them into other districts, you're taking some districts and
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: taking them from Democratic to Republican, but you're taking Republican
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: districts and making them less Republican. So in a good year,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: the wave goes over the levy they've built. And so
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: Republicans are seeing that, not Republicans in Texas, they don't
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: necessarily do that, but like in Indiana and elsewhere are saying,
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: Trump's not going to be around. He's not going to
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: be on the ballot, you know, ever again. Why would
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: we put ourselves at risk here? And it has limited their,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: the playing field in a pretty interesting way.
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: And it's also, I mean, when I started covering politics
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: and I probably would, Dan, if you remember in the
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: old days of redistricting, it really was a, an incumbent
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: protection racket, right? That, that it, The individual members did
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: have incredible influence because they were protecting their friends, they
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: were protecting their own districts, and they would, to get
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: a deal cut, would say, I'll protect yours, you protect mine,
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: and here we go. Wasn't necessarily the best way of doing,
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: I'm not advocating this is the best way of doing business,
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: but they did have agency in this. And I think
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: what we're seeing, and Kansas did the same. They rebuffed
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: the president as well. What we're seeing in Kansas and
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: Indiana is we are red states. We get it. But
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: we also have our own individual priorities that, as you said,
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: are going to outlast Donald Trump. And whether it's something
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: as small as, you know, I don't like the idea
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: of taking whatever county and chopping it up five ways, right?
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: in the hundred years of this county, it's never been
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: chopped up before, and it should always have one representative, right?
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: There are those things that still, we think all politics
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: is national, but there is a very parochial part of
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: politics that still exists. And especially if you're a state lawmaker,
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: you think, I have, I'm thinking not just about are
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: we going to win or lose, because in Kansas or
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: in Indiana, like, you're going to be the majority party forever.
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: It is what do we need to do beyond just
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: winning and losing. So if you're a swing state where
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: you're constantly, you're Pennsylvania and you're constantly thinking about that
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: little edge you have and maybe swinging your state is
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: different from, you know, if you're a deep red or
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: a deep blue state. And that's why the Virginia State
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: ballot initiative is so interesting, too, because like California, this
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: independent redistricting passed overwhelmingly when it was on the ballot.
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: It's now part of the Constitution. But are people willing
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: in the state to say, I'm going to give up
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: my local, what I felt was like a vote for
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: something unique in my state in order to make a
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: broader statement nationally. And I think Democrats have been more
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: willing to do that. I'm also kind of impressed, quite frankly,
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: to see, but Republicans, you're right, they gave up some
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: of their territory, although they're not, they have not put
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: themselves in really dangerous positions, right? They're not taking the
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: kinds of risks like, oh, we're going to put you,
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: you've gone from a Republican plus 20 to a Republican
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: plus two. But they do have new territory they're going
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: to have to introduce themselves to, which no member wants
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: to do that. They are comfortable in their district. So yes,
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: at the end of the day, I think there is
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: the short term, which is, okay, let's say that Republicans
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: end up netting a couple seats out of this, two,
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: three seats, pad their majority. So now Republicans have a
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: six seat, or the other way to think of it
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: is Democrats need to, instead of winning just three seats
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: to get a majority, now need six or seven. But
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: the longer term implications, I think this goes to your
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: point about, you know, you redrew these lines, assuming a
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: certain environment, what is it going to look like in
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: a presidential year? What is it going to look like
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: four years from now? And so we don't know that. And,
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: you know, you have also really soured the public that
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: already thought that this process is corrupt. Now they think
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: it's just, it's all really looked at as pretty contemptuous.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be interesting. It's going to be
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: a very busy year for Cook Political is when they
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: have to redraw the districts again before the 2032 elections
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: and how.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: People handle that. How people handle that. And also, okay,
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: just from a software update sort of thing, okay, we
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: think about redistricting every 10 years and like, what do
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: we need to have on the site and what do
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: we need to build and how do we do it?
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: We were not prepared to do that for.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, Dave Wasserman needs nine years to recover every
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: time we do this. Now we're redistricting every five years.
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: We're only giving him, right, like a year.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, North Carolina's redistricting every cycle. Hasn't had a
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: new map every cycle for like the last however many cycles.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: Every cycle. Yeah.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: Since 1992. Yeah.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: The other thing that hangs over this conversation is the
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: pending Supreme Court decision on Section 2 of the Voting
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: Rights Act.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: That's what I was going to do on VRA.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: That's right. And so... So Supreme court for people who
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: have not been following this, if you're a Democrat, very,
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: very alarming, uh, situation is Supreme court is reviewing section
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: two of the voting rights act, which prohibits discrimination, uh,
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: on racial lines and what, and the specific question is
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: about whether. Is about whether majority minority districts, the districts
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: that are drawn to specifically include mostly black voters in
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: the south, but it could also be Latino voters in
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: the Southwest wherever else, um, is unconstitutional. if they were to,
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: even though they just upheld this like pretty recently, but
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: if they were to strike that down, there would be
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: a rash of redistricting that would happen again, mostly, but
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: not entirely in the deep South. Mostly in the South. Because,
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: you know, people was like Alabama, the states like Alabama, Mississippi,
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: that Republicans win by, you know, 20 points and presidential
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: electioneers have one or two Democratic districts because they have
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: large concentrated Black populations. They can read all the statistics
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: to divide those populations up and ensure there's no Democratic
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: districts in the South. That could happen before the 2026 midterms,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: but they'd have to move pretty quickly. Not likely, yeah.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: Not likely, yeah. They'd have to basically have a decision
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: like now or January, I think would probably be the end.
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: Because you really have to do it before the primaries
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: in March. How are you thinking about that? And have
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: you guys have done any math, any sort of like
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: range of outcomes for what that would mean? Let's say
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: it's for 2028 in terms of net Republican gains.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: I know. So we have not done it here. I
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: know Nate Cohn over at the New York Times has
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: done a good look at that. And I think his
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: was something like five seats that Republicans get of it. Now,
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: Texas is an interesting story because in Texas, this Supreme
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: Court fight is not, the case in front of the
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: Supreme Court right now is constitutional on the, I know
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: we have to like parse all of this, but the
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: case there is a constitutional argument versus the Voting Rights
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: Act argument. So this would not, right now what's happening
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: in Texas is separate from this. However, you're right. This
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: would definitely mean fewer seats in the South, Black seats
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: in the South. So let's just say now if Democrats
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: were to win the House in 2026, and let's say
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: they have an eight to 10 seat majority and VRA
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: struck down, and now we go into 2030 with five
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: or six fewer Democratic seats, right? You can see how
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: the math now.
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: Works going in into the next election. But, um, the,
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: to me, what it really highlights to Dan is that
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: this idea that the house is going to ping pong
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: every two years between the parties is something we have
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: not really dealt with, um, fully. You know, when I
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: first came to Washington in the early 90s, Democrats had
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: had control of the House, unbroken control of the House
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: for 40 years. And Democrats lose it in 1994. Republicans
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: hold it all the way to 2006. And.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: And after that, it just starts flipping pretty quickly, right?
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Democrats lost it in 2010, we won it back in 2018, yeah.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: We lost it again in 2020, right?
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: And then now you could see Democrats get it back
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: in 26, and then you go, oh, is it going
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: to flip again in 30? So what does that mean
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: for just the body in general? Like, what do you
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: do when you are just constantly ping-ponging between majority and minority?
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: You know, the The historically, at least in the last
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: 30 years, a president comes in with the House, the
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: Senate and the White House gets to do one really
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: big thing. Right. Bill Clinton gets to do his budget. Obviously,
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: for Obama, it's Obamacare. Trump gets to do the the
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: tax cut.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: You know, you do.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: And then this year or whatever, Biden does Inflation Reduction Act.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Trump does the big, beautiful bill, right? You use your majority.
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: I call it sort of a, it's like a smash
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: and grab now is our politics that you have, you've
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: got a majority, you know, it's only going to be
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: for two years. And so you use it really to
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: get one thing, go in, you smash, you grab what
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: you can, you lose. Maybe you can come back four
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: years later, two years later and do something else. But
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: It's not a great way to do big things because
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: really what we're doing is one party gets in control
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: and uses that as their opportunity to fulfill the dreams
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: of the base. They get one thing that they dreamed
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: of to get done. They fulfill that one dream. But
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: there's not like a, hey, let's think about the really
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: big consequential issues that are impacting American society. Let's really
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: tackle AI. Let's really tackle the disintegration of institutions and
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: what that's going to mean. Let's really fundamentally think about
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: this question of affordability. What does that mean in a
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: world where, right, we've got more billionaires, but yet than ever,
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: and the gap between rich and poor is bigger than ever.
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: So I don't know that. It's not a great way
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: to run a company.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: And the thing that's really changed here is the way
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: it used to work. As you said, you'd come in,
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: you'd do your big thing, mostly on a party-line basis.
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: You would lose the House or the Senate. The president
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: would get reelected, then would do something big and bipartisan
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: with the other side because the other party would be
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: chagrined by the presidential loss. They feel like they should
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: do some sort of compromising. And this all sort of
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: fell apart. A after Obama won in 2012 and Republican,
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: the Republican house bailed on immigration. It's like, that was
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: the exact model, you know, Obama wins by a bigger margin.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: They thought John Boehner stands up the next day and says,
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Obamacare is now the law of the land. Every Republican
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: from Rupert Murdoch and Sean Hannity down says we gotta
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: do comprehensive immigration form, passes the Senate, gets to the
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: house and dies in part because the house already lost
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: the whip, lost his primary over immigration. And then now
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: we're just in this world. Also, there's this house pinging
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: back and forth dynamic, but we also have had two
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: one-term presidents in a row. row, which is not something
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: we've had in a long time. Exactly. Yeah. So now
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: we're just really pinging back and forth.
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: Pod Save America is brought to you by Bombas. This
• 39:43
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• 39:46
  Speaker 4: we're still chasing, it's cozy. And Bombas has the sock
• 39:49
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  Speaker 4: I wear them every goddamn day. They're my go-tos when
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• 41:25
  Speaker 2: Let's actually just pivot to the House writ large here.
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: So we started this conversation about 2025. Democrats are super excited.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Trump's numbers are in the toilet. Affordability is the top issue.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: Trump's numbers on affordability are in the toilet. You know,
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: looking at the 2025 results, we're winning back Latinos. Things
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: are feeling great for us. People on my side here
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: feel great. They open up Cook Political. They read Amy
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Walter's latest column, which says basically Democrats are ascendant, but
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: we have a very low ceiling. So my question for
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: you is why are you such a buzzkill here? Hey.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Let us have our moment. It's been a long year.
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: Math is math. Math is math. So part of the
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: reason we're ping-ponging back and forth, right, is that there
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: are just so few swing districts and that the House
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: is pretty evenly divided between seats that Kamala Harris carried
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: and seats that Donald Trump carried. And there are very
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: few crossover seats. So if you're in a Harris district,
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: you're a Democrat. If you're in a Trump district, you're
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: a Republican. And there are also very few seats that
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: Trump won narrowly. Like usually after, especially this one, which
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: was a close election, right? This wasn't a landslide in 2024,
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: but there were only 14 districts of the 222 that
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: Republicans hold, only 14 of them are districts that Trump
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: lost or won by less than five points.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: That's a wild statistic.
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: That is just such a small number. It's like when
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: you look at, not to sort of, you know, make
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: you go to PTSD land, but 2010, you know, there
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: were so many, there were 48 Democrats in McCain districts
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: in 2010, right? Because there were a bunch of districts that,
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: you know, they voted for John McCain for president, but
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: the Democrat was able to hold on because, right, they
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: were unique to that district. They were used to voting
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: for Democrats there even as they were voting for Republican
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: for president.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: And Obama did better in those districts than a typical Democrat. Correct, correct.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: Because that election is fascinating because that's one of the
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: rare times where there are two wave elections in a row.
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: 2006 was a wave election and 08. And so you
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: had all these people who won on the back of
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: those two waves. Because normally you have a wave election
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: in an off year. Then you have the presidential. The
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: tide comes back in. You lose a bunch of seats.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: We just kept winning people. And so there was this
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: huge list. And now that does not exist.
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: That does not exist anymore. And- The challenge then comes in.
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: So that's 14, quote unquote, I won't call them easy seats,
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: but those are the most fruitful to flip. So even
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: if you win all of those, that's just a gain
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: of 14 seats. And let's say you need six seats
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: to win. So that gives and you don't lose any
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: of your own. That gives you an eight seat majority.
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: It's not bad.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, no.
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a narrow majority. So you could have a
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: wave election, which would look like 2010, 2018, in which
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: the party outside of the White House wins almost all
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: of the seats between zero and five, and those seats
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: won that are crossover seats, and come up with a
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: much smaller number. Now, to me, the big question then is,
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: could we see a wave that is even bigger than that?
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: And I'm not seeing evidence of that yet, of one
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: in which districts that Trump won by double digits start
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: to go, right? That there's a real collapse there because
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: of what, either because of the political environment or this
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: idea that Trump was just so unique and so skilled
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: at putting together a coalition that just can't hold without
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: him on the top of the ticket. But this is
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: where I'm going to go back to where we started, Dan,
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: from the conversation, our conversation where we started about Virginia
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: and what we learned from the off-year elections. Democrats had
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: a great night at the legislative level, too. They picked
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: up Fort 13 seats at the state legislative level, but
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: all of them were in districts that were basically Trump
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: zero to five or were Harris districts. So even on
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: a great night in Virginia, you say, oh my gosh,
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: Abigail Spanberger wins by 15 points. They win all of
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: the row races, the statewide races, and pick up 13 seats.
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: But they didn't win in districts that are.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: Red.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: In other words, they're winning all the swing districts, which
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: is what you need to do to win an election.
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: But what you're not doing is dipping into these deep
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: red areas. Those areas are going to stay red. They
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: may be a little less red. And so it's not
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: going to be the kind of election that at least
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: at this point that we're seeing, that you can say
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: you're going to see big shifts that would make Republicans
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: absolutely reassess either what they're doing or what they're saying
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: or how they're thinking about their coalition. The other way
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: I think about this is the Senate map is basically
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: getting a win, in order to win control of the Senate,
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: Democrats need to win in Trump plus 10 states or more, right?
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: And so winning in Ohio, winning in Iowa, winning in Texas, that's,
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: if they are winning there, then they are going to
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: be winning 30 or more House seats too.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Looking at your data, it's like, so you have
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: 14 Republicans in CC, either Harris won or Trump won
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: by less than five points. Another 14 in Trump's districts
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: that Trump won by five to 10 points, right? Which is,
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: those are some possibly attainable, but hard. But the thing
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: that really is stunning, and this does show why the
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: House will ping pong back and forth and why the
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: days of large majorities are gone, for now at least,
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: is 187 of the Republicans are in districts that Trump
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: won by more than 10 points in a year in
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: which he won the popular vote by the smallest margin
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: of any candidate since Al Gore in 2000. So this
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: is not Obama 08 or Biden winning the popular vote
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: by 7 million votes or whatever it was in 2020.
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: This is an incredibly narrow popular vote win. And even
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: under those scenarios, 187 of the sitting Republicans feel that
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: they are in no danger of possibly losing the election,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: which does go back to the point about why they
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: don't really care about extending the Obamacare tax credits because
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: their only fear is losing. The only election they're ever
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: going to lose, most of them, are ever going to
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: lose is the primary. And so they're not really concerned
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: about the other thing. The reason we're in that position,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: is that a combination of polarization and gerrymandering or mostly polarization?
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: How do we get there?
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I do think it's a lot about polarization, but
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: gerrymandering too, that went and benefited one side or the other.
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: But the fact that you just have so few people
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: willing to give the other party the benefit of the
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: doubt and split their ticket means that you're just not
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: going to get these crossover kinds of districts that when
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: we were starting out in politics were just so commonplace.
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: And so you're right. If each party has, you know,
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: 180 plus seats sitting in deep red, deep blue, we're
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: going to fight over the same 30 seats every two cycles.
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: And the, the only way that changes is, um, Either one,
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: there is a big decoupling at some point, and it
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: does feel as if, you know, this is, to me,
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: the really great paradox of our time is that people
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: are less aligned to party than ever. Our politics is
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: not as linear, meaning in terms of thinking about a
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: scale of conservative to liberal. I think there's a recognition
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: of voters being more heterodox on policy than politicians are.
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: So there is this ability to sort of cobble together
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: a coalition of voters that looks very different than what
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: we have seen in the last 30 years. Yeah.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: And I'd add to that a decoupling as we've, we've
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: become less racially polarized, um, So it was like politics
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: is a little bit detached from demographics in that sense.
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: There we go. All of that should expand this playing field.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: It expands it on the presidential level, but not at
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: the House level.
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: Not at the House level where you're able to draw
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: these districts that take out any of the uncertainty, right?
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: In the Senate too. Now what do we have? One
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: Republican Susan Collins in a solid blue state and no
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: Democrats in a solid red state. Is that correct?
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: Yep. So Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, because they ping pong back
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: and forth, you know, those are right. How many other
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: states have split delegation? Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: It's Maine. Maine's the other one.
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: There we go. But we had that.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: Is that it?
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: So it's just three? I think that's... I think that's right.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: That I can think of off the top of my head, yeah.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 52:03
  Speaker 5: That's pretty... Pretty dark, yes. Well, it's dark for Democrats
• 52:09
  Speaker 5: because we're very good at winning lots of electoral votes
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: and not so good at winning lots of states. And
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: so that really puts a ceiling on the debt, which
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: we can pivot to the Senate. Actually, before we pivot
• 52:21
  Speaker 5: to the Senate, I do want to go back to
• 52:23
  Speaker 5: just one thing on the House map. There was this
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: Politico story the other day that was about Texas.
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: And, you know, Texas, as we mentioned, has this question,
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: is the current redistricting gerrymandered map going to be tossed out?
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: Then go back to the old map. But it had
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: a bunch of Democrats from Texas and D.C. saying that
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: they are optimistic about winning seats in Texas under the
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: current map, Texas map, if it were to stay in
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: the place, the one that Trump wanted, because of the
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: shift in the Latino vote they saw, particularly in New Jersey.
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of bloviating from the people in charge
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: of winning the House and Senate on both sides at
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: this point because you want donors and people to believe
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: you have a chance to win. But there is this
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: interesting dynamic in Texas, which is they did draw those
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: maps largely assuming that the 2024 gains that Trump made
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: with Latinos, particularly along the Rio Grande Valley, those are
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: Republican gains, not Trump gains. And You know, I do
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: always point out that according to exit polls, at least
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: Beto O'Rourke won Latinos against Greg Abbott in the last
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: time he was up in a midterm. And so there
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: is this world in which they made this bet in
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: Texas that Latinos were going to operate at a 2024
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: level and they may not going forward. But looking at
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: your guys essential, I would say for everyone's watching essential
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: race ratings at Cook Political, if you want to know
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: where to donate your money, what races to watch. You
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: should look at those race ratings. But I don't think
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: you guys have any of those races in the toss-up
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: or lean Republican category. Or maybe one. Maybe Mayra Flores,
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: I think, maybe the one.
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: Now, that would be one, to your point. She fits
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: into the Trump, again, this is under the map that
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: is on pause, but is the redistricted map. is a
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: Trump plus, I think it's like plus eight, nine, something, 10,
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: something like that.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: So that would be interesting. That is definitely one to
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: keep an eye on, right? To say, it's one thing.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: So I think there are two conversations when we're talking
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: about Texas and Latinos. The first is Republican said, we
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: can gain five seats with this map. That five seats
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: depends on winning, knocking off two Democrats in South Texas
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: based on, as you said, the performance of Donald Trump
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: in that area. So you could argue that at the
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: very least, Democrats are able to hold those two and
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: Republicans come out of Texas and Winning three seats.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: Plus three, yeah, plus three.
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: Right, instead of five. The other is that you could
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: look at, okay, again, this is a Republican-held seat, the
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: 15th district, and say, well, that also should be considered
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: more competitive if these numbers with Latinos hold up across
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: the country. And as we know, you know, The results
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: in New Jersey are about New Jersey. They may not
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: translate into the Central Valley.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: They may not.
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: It's that whole like Latinos are Latinos everywhere, and they're
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: obviously not. So Rio Grande or San Antonio or this
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: is not what it's like saying like all women vote
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: this way.
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: It is very much so. We're not saying all Latinos
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: are going to vote a similar way. I do think that,
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: and the folks over at the ECCI's project just put
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: out their big survey of Latino voters, and their bottom
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: line is, their assumption is that the vote will look
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: a lot more like it did in 2022 than it
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: did in 2024. In other words, Democrats are going to
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: do better with Latinos, but it's not like it It
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: won't look like it did in 2020. It won't look
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: like it did basically pre-Biden. We're not going back there.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, 2016. Exactly.
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: 2016 was the high watermark, and we're not... Their point is,
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: we're not going back to that 20... At least.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: Right now, they don't see it. Don't look at that
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: as the baseline number, that if Democrats don't hit that,
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: they have failed. Look instead at how... Democrats did in 2022.
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: And I think that Texas is going to be a
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: great place to see just where that number ends up.
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: When we come back, more of my conversation with Amy Walter.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: But before we go, if you're someone who lives and
• 57:35
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• 57:42
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• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the Senate real fast here.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: So the Democratic path to a Senate majority, which I
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: think most people thought was off the table earlier this year,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: or pretty close off the table. There has been a
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: lot of optimism, I think measured optimism, from the people
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: who don't have a very specific political interest in making
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: people optimistic about it, that Democrats, we've been fortunate in
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: Republican recruiting failures. Like, even at the beginning of the year,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: we think Brian Kemp's running against John Ossoff. We think,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: you know, the governor of New Hampshire is running against
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: what we thought would be Gene Shaheen at that point.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: You know, Republicans can't recruit their best candidates. We get
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: some really good recruiting wins in Roy Cooper and Sherrod Brown.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: But our path, for some people to know, is We
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: got to defend open seats in Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: We have to defend John Ossoff in Georgia, have to
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: beat Susan Collins in Maine, win in North Carolina, which
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: Susan Collins theoretically should be, for all the reasons we
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: talked about, a very winnable race for us, although she
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: has defied partisan dynamics before, um, have Roy Cooper win
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: in a state that Trump won by a little, by
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: a few points in 2020, and where we haven't won
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: a Senate race since, uh, 2008, I believe was Kay
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: Hagan was the last one, but have won statewide a
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: couple of times now, um, Roy Cooper, Josh Stein, et cetera. Um,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: and then we have to win two of the following four, Texas, Ohio, Iowa,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: or Alaska. And the, the, the big asterisk I put
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: for Alaska is you need Mary Peltola to run for that.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: She was the statewide rep. Um, Of those four, all
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: of which Trump won by double digits, and all of
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: which have been trending Republican over the last eight years here,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: what is your assessment of the Democratic path? And if
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: there is one, what do you think is the most
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: viable path right now?
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: Right. So the Ohio seems the next most vulnerable for Republicans,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: simply because the you've got a very well-known and well-established
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: brand in Sherrod Brown. The current, uh, Republican isn't particularly
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: well-known there. Um, he's more of a traditional Republican. He
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: kinds of comes out of a Mike DeWine style, uh, Republican,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: which in some ways you'd say, oh, well, that makes
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: it a safer bet, right? Because if anybody remembers the last, uh,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: Senate race in the state. That was the Bernie Moreno race,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: which was a lot closer than people had expected against
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: Sherrod Brown. There, of course, was J.D.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: Vance.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: There was a lot of hand-wringing by Republicans when he
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: first ran about his campaign. They didn't think he was
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: running a strong enough campaign. He wasn't a good fundraiser.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: So that.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: And Jamie Vance, I would say, just notably underperformed every
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: other Republican in the state by a fair amount, even
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: if he did end up winning by.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: Exactly. And so there are two ways to look at that.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: One is, even when you have candidates who don't run
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: great campaigns as Republicans in the state, they're still able
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: to win against well-known, well-established, and well-funded Democrats. The other
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: way to say it is, yes, but You could also
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: make the case that, you know, the last two elections
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: have been relatively decent ones for Republicans. And the last
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: time that the environment was as weak as this for
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: Republicans was 2018. And Sherrod Brown won in 2018 in Ohio.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: Of course, he was the incumbent then. But, you know,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 3: you also think about a place like Ohio and go.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: I just don't see places where the Trump brand is
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: receding enough to get you over the finish line. Iowa,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: to me, is really fascinating because you've got a state
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: where there are clear implications. Really, in Iowa, you've got
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: there's been real consequences to Trump's tariff policy there, right?
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: This is a farm economy. The soybean farmers and ranchers
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: and cattle. And I just saw a tweet, I think
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: it was today or yesterday, from Senator Grassley upset at
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: an appointment to one of the bodies that HHS Secretary
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: RFK Jr. oversees, who wants to ban pesticides, which, again,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: just another blow to farmers in the state, right? They
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: are just getting really pummeled by the policies of this administration.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: If you look at off-year special elections in that state,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: Democrats have outperformed by significant amounts in Iowa. So It
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: seems like there's some weakness there for Republicans. I think
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: the hardest part for Iowa, and even Democrats will privately
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: admit this as well, is as an open seat, it
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: actually may be harder for them to win than if
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: Joni Ernst were still there because she just had a
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: lot of that baggage. Now, the one thing I'll say,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: Ashley Henson, who is the Republican nominee, is a very
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: strong candidate. She's a former TV host. reporter. So she's
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: got some name ID. She is very polished and a
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: very good campaigner. But she also has a voting record, right?
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: She's not an outsider. You know, part of what made
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: Joni earn such a great candidate when she won the
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: seat in 2014 was she was known just All right,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: she was known as the castrating pig lady, right?
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: For people who were not around in 2014, she has
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: a farming background and was a veteran, but I believe
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: she was a veteran, but also ran an ad about
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: castrating pigs, which in a time before things went truly
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: viral politically, this was an ad that everyone knew about
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: and was quite excellent.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: But that's been the last 11 years now. That's the
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: castrating pig lady, yes.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: Right, that is the lady that's ought to make... she'll
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: make Washington squeal, right? So everybody got a little squeamish.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: So they're like, oh, but, um, so Hinson does not
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: come in with the outsider-ness, right? She still will have
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: to carry the baggage of all that's going on in Washington.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: So while I think she does not have some of
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: the obvious weaknesses and for, for Ernst, that was this
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: last viral moment where at a, At a town hall,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: she told folks who were worried about Medicare cuts and
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: Medicaid cuts causing people to die. And then she said, well,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: you know, everyone's going to die. So I'm very, very
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: intrigued by Iowa. There's a very big Democratic primary, though.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: And we have to see the caliber of candidate that
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: comes out of that primary. Now, Texas, you know, the
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: shorthand is, oh, well, if Paxton wins, that puts Texas
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 3: in play Here's the thing, and you and I will
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: probably be talking about this for years, for the next
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: couple of years, but I also look at who's in solid.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: So Florida, there's really no effort being made by Democrats
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: to win Florida. We know that Democrats haven't won Florida
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: in a while. It's a tough state. It's an expensive state.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: But to not put Florida and Texas in play two
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: years before a presidential election, we're Like, if you're Democrats,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: you're looking at the electoral college map, going into 28
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: and then going into 32. Like, if you're not competing
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: in those states, what are you doing? You know, right? Like,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: at some point, you can write off, you can say,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: all right, fine. Ohio's not a swing state anymore. Iowa's
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: not a swing state anymore. Fine, fine, fine, fine. We're
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: going to give up those ghosts. You can't also say, well, Florida,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: we're going to give up there, and Texas, it's so expensive,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: and it takes a lot of money to move just
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: a point. So we're just going to go all in on,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: you know, Georgia, North Carolina, sure. Yeah, Arizona, Nevada, great.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: But that's not enough, especially as the Midwest continues to
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: become not just more competitive and that blue wall thing,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: get smaller, but those states are literally shrinking. New York
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: is going to have fewer electoral votes.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: This is the most important point.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: This is so important. This is the thing. This is
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: one of the things I worry about in the Democratic
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: Party post the 2025 election is we have to think
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: much bigger than how do we just win the majority
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: in 2026 or even how we just win the White
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: House in 2028, although those are high priorities for us,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: is they're going to redraw the maps after the 2030
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: census and The most likely scenario, as we sit here today,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: is that Florida, California is going to lose some seats.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: Texas is going to lose some seats. The blue wall
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: is going to lose some seats. Florida and Texas are
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: going to gain five to seven net electoral votes. And
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: so the blue wall path no longer exists for us.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: Like that does not exist. And so we are going
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: to have, and in the coalition, which we currently have
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: will be, unless we can improve, we can actually make
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: those gains. We saw in 2025 Latino voters. will not
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: be sufficient to ever win a national election. And so
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: we cannot seed Florida and Texas going forward because we
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: have to believe the Democrats can get back to something
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: that looks like Obama's 2012 coalition with Latino voters and
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: white voters, frankly. Because if you cannot do that, you
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: cannot win.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: You can't win a national election.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: You cannot. The Republican electoral advantage is going to get
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: so severe that we cannot do that. And so that
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: is the argument for running vigorous Senate races in those
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: states in 26, in 28, in 30.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 3: Even if you say, okay, so we've lost, and it
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 3: is a lot of money.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: You're right.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: It's a lot of money to put into two states
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: that literally just A million dollars gets you nothing, right?
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 3: A million dollars in Iowa can actually get you something.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: So I get the math of that. I really, really do.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: And yet, I also take your point that if you're
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: not going to at least just say, let's just play here.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: Let's see what we can do. This is the, and
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: nobody wants to do that because, right, you say, well,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: You spent way too much money on Florida and Texas
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: and you didn't spend any money. You didn't spend enough
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: in Ohio. And that's why we didn't win this control
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 3: the Senate. Right.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: I think that is such myopic thinking because for two reasons, one,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: maybe we could spend less money in these other states
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: where we are just basically running a bailout program for
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: local television stations by running. Like there is a, there
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: are such diminishing returns, particularly in this media environment to
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: linear television advertising. And so we were just dumping money,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: mostly super packed money at huge, at a huge cost
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: markup into these states with small media markets and like
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: to what end. And also you can run vigorous races
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: for less money now, if you are good at communicating.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: Like poor Maine, do we need, how much more can
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: you put into the state of Maine?
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: Like there's just nothing else.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: It's going to be, it's going to be an absurd
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: amount of money spent there. An absurd amount of money
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: spent in Georgia. all these races, and it's diminishing returns
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: because there is just this closed-minded thinking about how to
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: spend money in presidential campaigns where the only thing of
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: true value is linear television advertising because it's the only
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: thing you can go to your donors and say, we
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: bought this many ratings points and this commercial is going
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: to run this many times during this football game. It just,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: it makes no sense, particularly at a time in which,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: this is now my soapbox that I am at every
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: time I see a donor, but is if you are
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: a younger person 40 and under. There are two elements here.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: One is you were raised your entire life to not
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: believe ads. You skipped them. You fast-forwarded them. You swiped them.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: You don't know them. Your source for... What is to
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: me the McDonald's I'm loving it commercial for people younger
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: than me is an influencer saying they love McDonald's or
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: whatever product they have. It's very different. The other thing
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: is if you... If you are a young person who
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: does not watch sports, because the only way to really
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: reach people right now is sporting events, then you have
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: no way to reach them in the linear television ad
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: because Netflix doesn't take political ads and TikTok doesn't take
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: political ads. So like 80% of the time that they're
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: doing things, you're not, and most streaming television services do
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: not take political ads. And so you just can't reach
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: these people. And it is voters under 40 in 2024
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: we couldn't reach, voters under 45 in 2028 we can't reach.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: Voters under 50, we can't reach voters under 50 in 2032.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: Like this is the world. And so you just have
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: to think more creatively. We haven't talked about Zoran Mondani
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: in this. I think people are over-reading the importance of
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: his win, both as a positive and a negative, and
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: to the House and Senate midterm. But there is a
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: lesson here, which is if you are good at content
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: and you understand the media environment, you can dominate attention
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: for much less money than you would spend. So if
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: we could have, and there are some interesting candidates, particularly
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: in Texas, who are good at attention and particularly both
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: Tallarico and Jasmine Crockett, if she were to run, we can.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: Talk about them.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: But there are people who could, there's a way in
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: which you could spend less money and still win and
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: at least spend less money and run vigorous races. And
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: so Like, and just, we have to expand the playing
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: field or we're never like, it can't be that every
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: single cycle we have to draw an inside straight to
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: get to 51 seats. Like that is not a viable,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: that's not a viable approach to a party with true
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: governing ambitions. Like you can't win because the net, you
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: know what, you know what also sucks? The math. It
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: always sucks for Democrats.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: Cause it's not getting there. As you, we said at
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: the beginning, there's nobody sitting. There's one Susan Collins. That's it.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: And if she got to be Dave McCormick and Ron Johnson,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: and then that's it. And then we got to go
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: to a state that Trump won by a lot to win.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: Like that is where it is.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: And maybe the other seat, North Carolina, I guess, but.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 3: That is the full, but that's still saying that the
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 3: playing field for the Senate is the same five or
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: six seats every single cycle. And that becomes limiting, but
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 3: you're right. If you're thinking more broadly about, well, how
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: do you build an electoral college coalition, that electoral college
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: coalition also is likely the one that's going to win
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: you some... It's not going to necessarily win you in
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 3: a state like Iowa, but it is one that you
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: could take to Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, right?
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, that is.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: Booming, growing states, that's the next step.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah. You have, like, Latinos are the fastest growing population
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: in the United States. You cannot be losing them. And
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: by large, or not, if you're not going to win,
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: if you're going to win a, like a math where
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: we win a tiny percentage of white non-college voters, the
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: largest population currently, and are losing ground with Latinos, the
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: fastest growing population, is not one that wins. All right,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: real quick, because we are getting to the end here.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: There is an election coming up in a couple of
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: weeks in Tennessee. It's a special election in the seventh
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: district where Mark Green retired for a variety of reasons
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: in the middle of the cycle. This is a district
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: that Trump won by like 21 or 22, I think.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: Democrats are somewhat optimistic. Republicans seem quite concerned. Where do
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: you think things stand in that race and what are
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: you looking for?
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: What I'm looking for is The bigger question, I don't
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: think Republicans lose this one. That would be a very,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: very big upset. Is it in the realm of possibility?
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 5: Sure.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: But as you said, it's a Trump 22 district. So
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: the margin here is going to matter. I think if
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: you're Republicans, you're really desperate to make sure that this
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: is a double digit win, right? Because it's one thing
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: to say, It's a Trump 22 district and we won
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: it by 10. It is not as dramatic as a
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 3: Trump 22 district that we barely eked out. Because I
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: think if you barely eked out a race in a
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 3: Trump 22 district, if you're a Republican running in 26
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 3: and you see those numbers, I mean, it's quite notable,
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: by the way, that this is coming, that this election
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: is coming right before the holidays. Well, right after one,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: and then right before the other big holidays. Because we
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: all know members go home over the holidays. They make
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: a lot of decisions about what they're going to do
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 3: in the next year. They sit down with family. They
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: do the whole like, is my life what I want
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: it to be? Do I really want to go through
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: this again? And if you're coming in with, these are
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: the following things you're dealing with already. you know, the
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: whole health care thing we talked about, you look at
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 3: the 2025 elections and what happened there. And then if
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: there's a really close race in a district that Trump
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: carried by 22 points where Republicans poured in money and
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: they aren't ignoring this, they're actually playing here for real.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: What does that say to you if you're a vulnerable
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: Republican or even potentially vulnerable or have a potentially competitive race?
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: Do you want to go through with it? Do you
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: want to come back? And, you know, do you have
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: the sort of fire in your belly to go through
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: a real race? And there will be a lot of
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: people who say, I don't think so. Not really worth it.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: There's a bunch of people on that bubble that we
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: talked about who won by eight points or 12 points
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: who haven't probably run a real race in a long time.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: They haven't done a lot of call time at the NRCC.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: They don't really want to campaign. They may be probably
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: older because it's the United States Congress and everyone's older,
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: and they don't want to do it. And this is,
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: it's interesting.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: Because I think that's where it has the biggest impact.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: If it's, you know, it's not so much the winning
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 3: and the losing. I mean, the losing, if Republicans lose this,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: that would be just shock, like this is world ending
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: for the moment. But even a very narrow win, it
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: says you should not feel comfortable. And you got to
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: get yourself in that play, that headspace. If you're a
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 3: member thinking about reelection, that This is not going to
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: look like 2024, and it's not going to look like
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 3: any other race maybe you've been in.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: Amy Walter, it is always so much fun to talk
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: to you about politics.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: So fun.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: This has been great. I've been talking politics with you
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: for a very, very long time now, and I highly
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: recommend everyone check out the Cook Political Report. It is
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: the Bible for people who follow politics very closely. It's
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: how I track what's happening in the races. It's how
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: I track what's happening in redistricting. Amy, you are no
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: better person to have this conversation with. Thank you.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: This has been really great. Thanks so much. Really appreciate it.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: Happy holidays to you and to everybody listening.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: By the time they listen to it, they will have
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: had a happy holiday. Oh, I hope so.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: Yes, and I hope that the driving and the airport
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: is doing okay.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: Or at least better because you got to hear us.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: There we go.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: Thank you. Very well done.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Amy.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: Bye.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: That's our show for today. Thanks to Amy Walter for joining. John, John,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: and Tommy will be back in your feeds on Tuesday.
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