Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / WASDE Takeaways | Grain Market Talk April 10th, 2026

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WASDE Takeaways | Grain Market Talk April 10th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Green Market Junk Podcast.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the green news you need right now.
• 0:12
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• 0:16
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• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: Good, Mike.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: How are you?
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: We are really good.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: It is Friday.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: It is almost the weekend here.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of uh markets are already in the weekend, anyways.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: It's the Masters, and we had a pretty fun market week.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: Let's just put it that way, Pat.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_02: The sun is shining this afternoon here in southwest Minnesota as well, and spring is on our minds.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: That it is.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about a little bit of the futures activity we had here this week.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we're gonna start chatting with about that, break into the WASD airport we had this week, talk about the big meal market movement we had as well, and then maybe mix in the relationship between corn and soybeans here.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: But I just want to get your take on uh a couple of charts here.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: We've seen some pretty uh interesting chart development.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: We've had a pretty hard breakdown.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: This would be a chart of December corn, for example, here, Pat, and just a few keynotes as we've really pulled back in this market.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh crude oil kind of helped lead us lower as well.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the wheat market has pulled back 70 of the buck 25 it had gained as well.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: So corn kind of getting pulled down in a few different directions, but we're getting to some key points here.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: We're right about at the 61% retracement.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: We're approaching uh a couple of key moving averages there as well.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: So this December contract, a little bit of support between about 470 and kind of that like 465 area.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: You kind of break through that, then things open back up to the downside.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: But I think the futures right now, a lot of traders, there's a ton of volume that has been had at these levels.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: And I think there's a a lot of folks really watching this corner.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: All of the things that you just mentioned there from a technical perspective, I I just a simple uh kind of that that low that we were at uh um back a couple months ago there, the the low from January 14th um up to that 498 high um in uh the first part of March there.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: Why um this is a 50% retracement from that little move too, right?
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_02: So um again, just agreeing with your observation that we are uh at an important uh consideration point here as it relates to just market movement.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_02: So hopefully this area holds for us here.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: Now that'd be the December chart, which I'd probably argue looks the best or strongest.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: Now you look at like old crop May futures, that thing's kind of a train wreck here, isn't it?
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: And the balance sheet I think is showing that, right?
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: We've got a billion bushels more corn right now than we did last year at this time.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: That May contract is just struggling a little bit relative to some of the other months.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, good point.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_02: And and and to your and to your point, the old crop balance sheet um always has been sloppy enough, right, to uh to to maybe put a little bit of a of a lid on on rallies here.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: And and um we were forced to face that again on the stocks and acres report that that recently came out.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_02: Um shouldn't have been or isn't a significant surprise, but but you get that on paper and you force everybody to pay attention to it again, it matters.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_02: Um, particularly here in the Western Corn Belt, right?
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, we we continue to experience um wider than normal basis levels, we continue to experience relatively robust movement, particularly in the Northwest Corn Belt.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_02: And and so um having a little bit of an impact for sure on on basis levels, Mike, as we start to work into a seasonal time of year, we start to see a little basis appreciation.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: For sure.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: I um uh a little pullback here helping the bases out.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like it's short-lived a little bit as we just especially try to fill up specifically at the ethanol plants, April, May, kind of this little gap we got here.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: Once we kind of get past that hump, we'll see if that sticks around or not.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm I am curious on that.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_02: So on the new crop balance sheet, um, again, coming off the stocks and acreage report, that 95.2 or 0.3 million acre planted number um was uh um a little bit uh uh just again, let's just get perspective on that.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_02: How did that number stack up versus expectations?
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_02: I and and I guess where I'm heading with this portion of the conversation is is I I don't know that we should be all that terribly surprised that we ultimately printed a 2 billion bushel ending stocks number, but the market hasn't reacted very favorably since then, and there can be other things going on, but but I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm interested in this discussion about how perhaps this market is is sort of putting more faith in those numbers than what we were uh would originally guessed that they were going to.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: It would sure seem like it.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you don't hear nearly as much talk about Iowa corn yield, things like that, being left out.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um I still do hear rumblings, even myself.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just wondering if that feed and residual number is gonna change at some point as well.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: But it at this point it stuck around for so long that it, you know, why would they fix it now?
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: Is is the other side of it.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: So um at this point, I was a little concerned about we saw a decrease in that quarterly stocks report, didn't get it reflected in the WASD report yesterday.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: They left that number the same for beginning stocks.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: So uh we'll see what we walk into for uh for that number.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: But what did you make of the WASD report yesterday, Pat?
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: Specifically corn, no changes to the balance sheet.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty easy to make uh any observations there.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: The world balance sheet, no major changes on corn.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: So wheat was a pretty big miss.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: There's quite a bit more wheat around than maybe what they expected.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think about the soybean one?
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: We did change crush by 35 million bushels.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: They increased that, they offset it with a lowering of 35 million bushels of exports.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, what did you think about the the balance sheet and what we saw yesterday?
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I didn't the this particular monthly report probably didn't uh do this observation justice, but I would just say that um demand still seems to be sneaky good, right?
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_02: And and it's it's it's that's true um from a corn, especially a global balance sheet perspective.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_02: And I think it's I think it's I think it's it's true from a saving balance sheet perspective too.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_02: So if I have a takeaway from all of that, it would just be um for sure get why you know we're increasing domestic um uh crush numbers here and should, especially with those margins, and especially with the investment uh uh taking place in that industry.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_02: But um I'm not so sure that we should be um um correcting that with uh a soybean shipment number on on the export side of things because the U.S.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_02: does have the opportunity, I think, to be somewhat competitive in that space.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_02: And um there are some a little bit of delays in harvest down in Argentina, nothing of significance, but the combination of a little bit slower progress and uh and currency challenges withholding uh the desire for the Argentine producer to transfer ownership, I think it's creating for a little bit better opportunity on both the soybean um product and soybean meal front in terms of exports.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_02: And so, anyway, uh little tightening balance sheet in the oil sed complex is maybe part of the reason why, you know, we've we've already talked a little bit, Mike, about uh correction in the new crop balance sheet on corn.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_02: There hasn't been one in the November contract, right?
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_02: So soybeans have been are maintaining this nice steady um uh uphill climb here, and uh and and maybe uh uh maybe just a little bit of those reasons that I just cited are the reasons why.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it's gonna have to figure out what byproduct it wants to trade to, because I mean you talk about soybean oil being down today, so then meal was up and then some other factors as well, but it's having to decide daily, you know, okay, which one do I want to follow today?
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: And a lot of it's been soybean oil lately, but it seemed like today meal definitely had an impact on it.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: And that likely has to go back to your observation about Argentina, don't you think?
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: That's part of what's going on.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and then and then circle around to the technical aspects of it too, right?
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_02: We spent uh um we tried again to uh uh trade meal down into that you know 305 to 310 support area, kind of all the way through in those deferred slots, and uh and the market was technically at risk earlier this week and it and it held those support levels pretty nicely.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_02: And so I think there was uh a bit of a motivational there from a technical rebound in that meal complex, and then and then maybe you just got you know money following trends there just a little bit.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_02: But yes, technically coupled with um some delays in in uh in export opportunities in Argentina certainly provided, I think, for this correction or rebound today.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_02: It'll be interesting to see in that meal complex what uh kind of momentum that can build off of that next week.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: One of the bigger moves I've ever seen in the meal market today, up$14 on that front month.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh a pretty massive move there for sure.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh crude oil ending the day, pretty red actually.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: We're down over a buck and a half now in the front month.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: Seems like it's giving up going into the weekend.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: And we kind of saw that out of soybean oil most of the day, too.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: But that puts your front month at 96 and a half, you know.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: And uh when I look at the impact crude oil has been having on the grain market specifically, it they've been decoupled a little bit lately.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: However, uh big, big moves out of the crude oil market still tend to push the grains.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I I don't think it's a coincidence that the other day when we saw$10,$15,$20 sell-off in the crude oil market, we s we've been seeing a pretty red sell-off through corn and and wheat as well.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, it seems like they're still tied together a little bit.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: It's just gonna have to pick what days it wants to trade along with it, and that's likely the big movers and shakers that we see each and every day.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: But that's not going away.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: It's a two-week ceasefire that we're only a couple days into that has been somewhat fragile.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of folks are calling it.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: So I I just have a feeling that, especially going into this time of the year, volatility isn't going away anytime soon.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, agreed.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_02: And just as it relates to energy and crude oil and and then crude oil versus corn and versus renewable diesel and soybean oil and all that, I would just, I would just instead of of trying to guess what happens next in the next couple weeks, I like to try to extend this conversation beyond that a little bit with the following observation, which is uh I believe that we've done some systemic damage to the infrastructure in the Middle East.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_02: I think it will have a lasting impact on crude oil supply and also fertilizer supplies.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_02: And so um I think it's appropriate for producers to at least consider the possibility that we need to kind of reset our energy expectations in terms of input costs here and and and and think about how that could both negatively and positively impact our business.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_02: And so um love to have that discussion uh one-on-one with producers.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_02: That's very industry and and producer specific.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_02: And so um we would appreciate that engagement if we had had the opportunity to do so, Mike.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_02: But it you know, it it's uh it again, I just say that I I I think that that um you know the other part that pushed crude oil quite a bit lower prior to this engagement was a pretty steady stream of uh of supply exceeding uh demand and building uh inventory and capacity.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_02: I mean that that was really the story of 2025.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_02: And and uh you know, we would um we would submit to you that there was going to be a little bit of a supply versus demand dynamics change taking place at some point this year anyway, right?
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_02: And then you sort of build on top of that, this the supply disruption um with with this with the Middle East conflict.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_02: I uh I think it really has the potential to sort of pile on here just a little bit.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: So um at any rate, certainly something we should keep an eye on.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: Talk about a really big whipsaw waiting for us, that if this does abruptly end at some point this summer, especially.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Trump, he's well known, he loves cheap gas, cheap oil prices.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: He's also known for cutting a lot of red tape, you know, and trying to increase oil production in the U.S., which our stocks are already high, like you said.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: Uh talk about the the fall that could potentially have in energy prices here if this does get resolved anytime soon, in the US specifically.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I uh well, I I'm not sure.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_02: Like I'm I'm guessing, I'm thinking that that uh um we have done enough uh infrastructure damage that to the rest of the world.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: That the the the the world supply uh of of energy is gonna remain tight.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_02: And so far, there hasn't been any discussion about um about how world energy prices aren't US energy prices, right?
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_02: And and so I don't think that Trump wants to pull that lever as it relates to limiting um our ability to export energy.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but I mean until those types of conversations start to happen, Mike, I I'm under the impression, or at least my bias at this point is is that is that the downside on this thing is relatively limited um you know to be because of the the changing uh global dynamics.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: And then you start to mix in what crude oil price globally is priced through, which is the US dollar, that as well as coming up in some conversations, which can really be some interesting times ahead of us in the in the Black Sea region for sure.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: So all right, any other final thoughts before we wrap up today, Pat?
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I just think you had a couple of did you want to talk about the corn versus bean relationship just a bit?
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think so.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: We're at 2.45 today.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: So soybeans are 2.45 times greater than corn, uh getting pretty extreme real recently here.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: That would show the the soybean market's been rallying here while corn is sold back off to levels that we saw very frequently through the earlier part of the year here at 470.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: So uh at this point going into planting, it looks like it might not be too bad of a deal if you have to plant soybeans, especially with the increased uh input costs.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: You're using less fuel, less machinery, uh less fertilizer on soybeans, for example.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: So these guys that were worried about they didn't have uh, you know, corn on corn fertilizer bought, it's pretty easy to switch soybeans today.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that is something relevant this time of the year, especially, Pat.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_02: Interesting dynamic for sure.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_02: And and as we as we work into to spring here very quickly, right?
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_02: Those are some decisions that that potentially could be made on the fly a bit.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_02: So thank you for that, Mike.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Planning progress locally.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: I've heard a little bit, Northwest Iowa, seeing some guys working grounds, strip till stuff like that, kind of the end of next week locally.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of folks are gonna get started, but just a little bit here and there.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing, no one really going real hard uh at this point here.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: Just people out trying to trying to get that first piece done, breaking stuff, it sounds like to me.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_02: That's how it works, right?
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, pretty much.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for joining us, Pat.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for tuning in today.
• 15:28
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• 15:35
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