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Transcript

Might Turn into War Correspondents · I Think Less of You Podcast

• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: That was great.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: I like when you make the joke before the record goes in.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: You had to get it in.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's always good to fade it on laughter.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we have a hard time.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: We never laugh.
• 0:33
  um how you doing i'm doing all right how are you i'm doing i it
• 0:37
  is snowing in
• 0:37
  colorado this is you're getting a brief snow you're actually
• 0:42
  you're actually seeing
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: winter for a moment yeah a couple flakes i'm so excited i'm so happy
• 0:49
  i'm sitting in my room just like looking at the snow over the
• 0:52
  mountains and i could
• 0:53
  not ask for anything more in life except i am a little sad
• 0:57
  spring has sprung that
• 0:58
  well no go ahead i'm sorry go ahead you're what you're sad oh
• 1:02
  i'm sad that my
• 1:03
  husband had to go on a work trip but you know i on monday i
• 1:08
  will be leaving on one
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_03: Exactly.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_03: On Monday, I will be leaving my home for two weeks.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_03: My poor wife to fend for our children on her own.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_03: But she'll be fine.
• 1:22
  She was last night saying,
• 1:24
  yeah,
• 1:25
  see,
• 1:25
  it's easier when you're here,
• 1:26
  obviously.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_03: I know it is.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_03: This gives you time to really appreciate me and all I do.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_03: Important.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I am going to have to deal with you in the next week.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_03: It's true.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_03: I am going to Washington, D.C.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_03: to cover a small conference there.
• 1:47
  And then I will be joining you in a currently undisclosed
• 1:53
  location where we will be
• 1:55
  uploading content from there for a bit as we check out this
• 1:59
  fascinating place.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we're going to a different country.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: I am very excited.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: I go there before you and I am staying later than you are there.
• 2:11
  And then I might find myself in other countries because
• 2:14
  sometimes when I fly to
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: Europe,
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: I just call my husband and I'm like,
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you next week.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_03: Just wait.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see how it goes.
• 2:26
  We're going to a part of the world that is a little bit
• 2:30
  interesting at the moment.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, it's all going to be fun.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: We might turn into war correspondence next week.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_03: It'll be fine.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_03: It'll be a delightful time.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be absolutely fine.
• 2:43
  I wouldn't go somewhere if I thought there was going to be,
• 2:47
  like,
• 2:47
  actual bad things going on.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: But, yeah.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_03: Today,
• 2:51
  we're probably going to have a relatively short chat here
• 2:54
  because we have this
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_03: stuff to do.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_03: We're preparing for preparing for travel and whatnot.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_03: Speaking of the war,
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_03: I see in the notes here you have,
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_03: why aren't we stating China's role in equipping Iran better?
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: These notes were from last episode and you walked all over them.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I haven't touched that.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: But why aren't we?
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we did kind of.
• 3:22
  You just yelled at me for saying that me saying we aren't
• 3:27
  messaging this well was wrong.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: And you shut down all discussion on that.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: No, I just had things to say.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: Uh-huh.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: I know your things to say are that I'm wrong in every way.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: Not always.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Not always.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_03: Sporadically.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Just usually.
• 3:46
  Do we know how much China is actually,
• 3:50
  how much material China is providing to Iran?
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_03: Obviously, we don't know.
• 3:55
  But I wonder if American government even is aware of exactly
• 3:59
  where what is coming from.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if you click through that tweet, there were actual receipts given.
• 4:06
  I'm going to have to open it up because I prepared this for
• 4:09
  Tuesday and it is now Friday.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you're making me look really smart today.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_03: You can just cut out the awkward silences in post.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_03: It's a drone factory for Russia.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_03: Iran was acting as a drone factory for Russia, I know.
• 4:29
  They were manufacturing drones and missiles and shipping them
• 4:32
  up,
• 4:32
  selling them to Russia.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 4:34
  The issue is that China and Iran were finalizing a deal for
• 4:39
  supersonic anti-ship
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: missiles,
• 4:42
  and those missiles would have radically changed the outcome of
• 4:49
  any kind of
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: conflicts with Iran.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: So when I put this in the notes for Tuesday,
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: I meant it because at the time,
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of people were like,
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: Iran wasn't actually posing a threat to the U.S.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: And that was a really good refutation of,
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: yes,
• 5:06
  they were actually imminently posing a danger to us and to our
• 5:11
  ships in the Middle
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: East and to our bases in the Middle East.
• 5:16
  Because if they obtained this deal,
• 5:19
  if this deal went through with China and
• 5:21
  they would have had technology that would have made so many
• 5:25
  American assets sitting ducks.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: And on Tuesday, I was saying that we should be talking about that more.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: I think since then, you know, we're in it at this point.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't really matter.
• 5:39
  But I am a little upset that we're not talking more about the
• 5:43
  fact that China was
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: going to,
• 5:46
  that they did have this deal that was going to go through that
• 5:49
  would have changed
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: the game for us.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_03: Well, we're, I've said before, we're in a,
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_03: unacknowledged Cold War with China.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, you know, Iran was within China's sphere of influence.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_03: I think it is,
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_03: for practical reasons,
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_03: we like to pretend that we are not in a Cold War with China,
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_03: but I don't know how anyone could see that we aren't.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_03: Well,
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_03: as with the real regular Cold War of the mid-20th century,
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_03: we hope it doesn't turn into a hot war with China.
• 6:21
  They are facing some serious...
• 6:23
  They are hitting a cliff in a lot of ways.
• 6:26
  I saw they revised their projections for GDP growth for the
• 6:32
  next year are below 5%.
• 6:35
  I believe they set them at 4.5%,
• 6:37
  which is the first time in a very long time that they have...
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_03: done that,
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_03: which is a problem for China because the social compact in China,
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_03: to my understanding,
• 6:47
  has been for a very long time that the people put up with very
• 6:52
  repressive regime
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_03: and with the operation,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_03: the weird operation of the government in exchange for prosperity.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_03: Basically, you keep hauling us up.
• 7:05
  You keep giving up,
• 7:06
  making sure everybody is getting pulled up into the 20th
• 7:08
  century.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_03: we will put aside all the stuff you're doing.
• 7:17
  And if the engine of their economy starts to slow down,
• 7:20
  that's a big problem for them.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 7:23
  I also think a large problem for them has been the fact that a
• 7:27
  lot of this
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: technology is not operating as though China and Iran thought it would.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it's operator error, but there are a lot of misfires.
• 7:39
  It seems like the payload on some of these isn't doing as much
• 7:44
  damage as Iran
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: thought it would be.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: And it has not been...
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: Very hard work for the U.S.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: to slow some of this down.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think Iran and China were relying on this to be a lot more deadly.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_03: Well,
• 8:01
  there's always been the open question of how much of a paper
• 8:03
  tiger China has been,
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_03: because America has...
• 8:08
  for as much as people complain about the various imbroglios
• 8:11
  we've been involved in
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_03: overseas for the last,
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_03: 20 years.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_03: You just wanted to say imbroglio.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_03: I love imbroglio.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_03: It's a great word.
• 8:22
  We have field tested our troops and we field tested our
• 8:26
  equipment and we have been
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_03: able to refine things and make our fighting capabilities better.
• 8:35
  better uh china has been building things but they've never been
• 8:39
  tested china hasn't
• 8:40
  been in a modern war uh which is entertaining given how much
• 8:45
  they rattle their
• 8:45
  saber and talk big and show off all their equipment it is
• 8:49
  someone now i'm not
• 8:51
  trying to goad china into entering a modern war by any stretch
• 8:54
  i don't i'm not
• 8:55
  saying go take taiwan from china prove to us prove to us you
• 8:59
  can but um all right
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: tom nichols slow down
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_03: But,
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 9:08
  their stuff is getting stress tested in the field and it's
• 9:10
  coming up short for one
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_03: reason or another.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_03: And I don't know.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_03: That isn't a good look for China either.
• 9:17
  Not to mention,
• 9:18
  fundamentally,
• 9:19
  China had inked defensive agreements with both China and
• 9:22
  Russia.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_03: Iran had.
• 9:27
  And both China and Russia,
• 9:30
  when push came to shove,
• 9:31
  they both said,
• 9:32
  oh,
• 9:33
  well,
• 9:34
  sorry.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_03: I mean,
• 9:36
  Iran had to expect that watching what happened with Armenia and
• 9:40
  Azerbaijan,
• 9:41
  because Armenia similarly has a defense pact with Russia and
• 9:45
  Russia did nothing
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: when Azerbaijan attacked two years ago.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_03: Now, granted, Russia's busy.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_03: Russia's got its own stuff going on.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_03: Although Hungary apparently is ready to join.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, yeah.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_03: You weren't talking.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's okay.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: There was a little lag, but.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_03: No, we're both getting lagged.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_03: So I feel like this is going to probably be a mess in recording.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_03: The whole Hungary thing, I don't.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know what's going on over there.
• 10:22
  Hungary and Slovakia are all up in Ukraine's business about
• 10:28
  because Ukraine isn't
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_03: allowing Russian oil to pass down into Hungary.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_03: I would have thought this would be more of an issue in the winter.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_03: It's obviously getting less cold.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_03: So I don't know why they chose to do this now.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: But that's LNG.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: This is actual petroleum that they're upset about.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 10:47
  So I think Ukraine is saying that Russia bombed the pipeline,
• 10:52
  that there's nothing they can do.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_03: With the Hungarians are saying that isn't true.
• 10:56
  The pipeline,
• 10:59
  you broke the pipeline to keep the Russians from being able to
• 11:02
  give us oil.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_03: I've seen people saying, you know, it's entertaining.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_03: I've seen Europeans,
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_03: Western Europeans saying,
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_03: well,
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_03: this is Hungary's fault for being so dependent on Russian oils.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, meanwhile, they are dependent on Russian LNG.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Like, look, I am on I'm pro Ukraine.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: I want Ukraine to win Ukraine.
• 11:29
  I also understand,
• 11:31
  and this is hard,
• 11:32
  right,
• 11:33
  because this is an election year for Viktor Orban.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: The election's in April.
• 11:38
  I understand there's some political pressures to all of this,
• 11:41
  and I do want Ukraine to win.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: Also, I think it's really hard...
• 11:46
  When we're looking at stuff like advocating for your own
• 11:49
  country and there's a
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: cheap gas supplier who isn't necessarily adversarial to Hungary,
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: this is where the EU gets really complicated.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: Today,
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: if you look,
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: all of the EU is coming down on Hungary,
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: who is an EU member,
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: and they are standing up for Ukraine,
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: who is not an EU member.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: And it just gets really messy and complicated and all of this.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm not I don't know.
• 12:13
  I think at some point it is a really big ask for all of Europe
• 12:18
  who has very
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: different priorities to take up.
• 12:22
  the ukrainian cause first and foremost in every single um in
• 12:28
  every single venture
• 12:29
  yeah this is where the eu just yeah the eu is a i've always
• 12:35
  thought the eu is a
• 12:36
  doomed project from the start so uh just because there's so
• 12:39
  many there's so many
• 12:40
  countries in it with competing competing histories and
• 12:44
  competing needs and
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_03: Which is why I think they have in many,
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_03: I wrote one thing a while ago that was discussing that the,
• 12:55
  I think that one of the reasons they're importing the EU is
• 12:59
  very in favor of
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_03: importing in large numbers of outside people isn't a racial thing,
• 13:03
  it's a cultural thing and they're importing people in who are
• 13:06
  beholden to the EU
• 13:07
  and not to the specific cultural histories of the constituent
• 13:12
  parts of the EU.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_03: So, no, that's, I, yeah, I understand we're hungry.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_03: It sounds like Orban may lose the election,
• 13:23
  which is entertaining because it's my understanding that he is
• 13:26
  a heartless dictator
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_03: who is ruling over his land with an iron fist.
• 13:31
  So it's always entertaining when these cruel,
• 13:36
  heartless dictators lose a Democratic election.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_03: You're shaking your head.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_03: You don't think he's going to lose.
• 13:43
  I don't think he's going to lose based on projections by a lot
• 13:48
  of people who know
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: far more about European polling models.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of people are saying, you know, oh, he's down in the polls.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: He's down in the polls.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_00: But the polls, the way they conduct polls is different.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't think he's down by enough.
• 14:07
  in the polls to actually lose because a lot of his base will
• 14:11
  turn out regardless
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: and don't respond to polls.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Polling is a very different thing in Europe.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: You're also watching,
• 14:19
  we watch a lot of Western media and a lot of pro-Ukraine media
• 14:23
  that's putting out
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: those polling results.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: So it is very complicated.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know that he's going to lose.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: He could.
• 14:30
  But just the fact that we're saying he could lose is exactly
• 14:34
  backing up what you're
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: saying right now.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: He's
• 14:38
  What what you're saying is that the polls exist to provide to
• 14:43
  generate a narrative
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_03: to claim that he stole the election when he wins.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not not saying that.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: But no,
• 14:52
  I was really just saying like polling methodology is very
• 14:56
  different in Europe and
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: polling responders are very different in Europe.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: They're not very accurate.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: And typically with aren't that hot either.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: much like polls in America overstate the left and understate the right,
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: they have the same issue in Europe.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: Also,
• 15:20
  the way Orban did do some things that are a little a little
• 15:27
  interesting with how
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: elections are set up and there are some built in protections for him.
• 15:35
  And I don't think the polls being where they are right now is
• 15:40
  enough to overtake.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: His built-in voter base and some of those protections.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_03: On the one hand, I think it is free and fair.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_03: Free, open, and fair elections are generally best.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_03: On the other hand...
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_03: Given the state of the EU now,
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_03: and I come back to this periodically,
• 16:02
  that with the Romanian election where they had what appeared to
• 16:07
  be was a free,
• 16:08
  fair and open election that the EU literally just invalidated
• 16:13
  because it's because
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_03: they said,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_03: well,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_03: the Russians spent some money in this campaign.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_03: So, you know, they're supporting the guy who won.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_03: So we can't have that.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_03: So we're going to toss that result.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_03: I don't.
• 16:24
  Don't know anyone is having necessarily free,
• 16:27
  fair,
• 16:28
  open elections in Europe at this point.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_03: So I don't – on the one hand,
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_03: yeah,
• 16:35
  I think that it would be best if Orban was not – did not feel
• 16:39
  the need to and
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_03: wasn't messing around with these electoral structures.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_03: On the other hand,
• 16:46
  how much of it is a counterweight to the stuff that is
• 16:51
  happening on the EU side?
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: I mean –
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: I it's all very messy and complicated.
• 16:58
  And we as Americans like to think of everything as very linear,
• 17:02
  black,
• 17:02
  white.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: Like we have to put Ukraine first and everything.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm like, OK, yeah, I got it.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: And also,
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: if you're the leader of Hungary,
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: you want your people to be able to fill their cars up.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: So it most people do.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, most people can't keep two ideas in their head at the same time.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_03: I'm just going to go ahead and say it.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_03: This is just a thing.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_03: A lot of people are not deep clinical thinkers in this world.
• 17:29
  If they're focusing on one thing and they take their focus on
• 17:32
  another thing,
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_03: they just forget about that first thing.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_03: It's like a goldfish.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: I also,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: again,
• 17:36
  as someone who wants Ukraine to be prosperous and not to be
• 17:40
  invaded by Russia and
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: think it's very important to hold Russia back.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: And Ukraine is a prime example of that.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: I'm also someone who has a problem with some of the Ukraine first policy,
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: especially for the EU,
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: of which Ukraine is not a member.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I think that the I'm very pro-Ukraine.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_03: I want Ukraine to win, I think.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_03: But at the same time,
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_03: I think that Trump's moves in various other places are,
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_03: in fact,
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_03: meant to to help in that situation overall.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, you know what?
• 18:19
  Reasserting American military primacy is good for everyone in
• 18:26
  all of these global situations.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_03: It is good for Ukraine because it says to Putin,
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_03: Putin has spent,
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_03: what is this,
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_03: four years now,
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_03: bogged down along this fairly static border in Ukraine.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_03: It's saying to Putin,
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_03: when we tell you to do something,
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_03: don't mess with us because we're actually effective.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I agree.
• 18:55
  I think I think our maneuvers in Iran are going to end up
• 19:01
  strengthening other regions.
• 19:03
  We are showing that China is a little bit of a paper tiger and
• 19:07
  we're showing that
• 19:08
  Russia is not actually a great ally and not someone that
• 19:11
  countries should align
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: themselves with.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: For anything outside of their own material interests,
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: like if you're getting cheap gas from them,
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: I guess,
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: go for it.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: But I sure wouldn't rely on them for anything outside of that.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think all of this is becoming really apparent.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_00: I think that it is only a benefit to the entire world that U.S.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: is seen as the strength that we are.
• 19:36
  um we thought look we thought that venezuela was gonna end up
• 19:42
  with widespread
• 19:43
  regional violence that we weren't going to be able to control
• 19:46
  and we made child's
• 19:47
  play out of it um we're looking at iran yes there is regional
• 19:54
  violence breaking out
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: and yet it's also kind of contained somewhat so
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think all of this is ending up showing what a strength the U.S.
• 20:05
  is and how short-sighted a lot of Europe has become when it
• 20:12
  comes to America and
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: relationships with us.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_03: Well, Europe's become short-sighted about a lot of stuff.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, yeah.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_03: Not just America.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_03: Much of the world has been...
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_03: Much of the world has.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_03: America certainly has a habit.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_03: One of the problems—I don't want to come off as a monarchist here.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_03: I play one on the Internet, and I'm not entirely actually a monarchist.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_03: However— You have to be careful with me, too, because we all know I am.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_03: One of the problems with modern democratic structures—
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_03: is that it encourages short-term thinking.
• 20:52
  Ideally,
• 20:53
  in a monarchist system of some kind,
• 20:56
  you are in fact thinking about dynastic issues.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_03: I am a smaller part in a long,
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_03: proud lineage of people who are entrusted with rule over this land.
• 21:11
  I have to try to leave it better than it was for my children,
• 21:15
  and so on,
• 21:16
  and so on,
• 21:16
  and so on.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_03: Whereas,
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_03: There is...
• 21:21
  We were founded by some of the most brilliant philosophical
• 21:26
  minds of their age who
• 21:28
  believed that the people who followed them would be equally
• 21:32
  philosophically deep.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_03: And some have been, but many aren't.
• 21:37
  And if you look at the state of American politics today and
• 21:39
  European politics
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_03: today,
• 21:41
  it's hard to say that anyone is really thinking 10 to 15 years
• 21:46
  down the road for
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_03: the most part.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_03: I would say Trump is an exception.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_03: Trump,
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_03: I think,
• 21:50
  is actually thinking – this was one of my rants in our last
• 21:54
  episode where I said
• 21:57
  that he has clearly moved on to an outcome-based mindset rather
• 22:03
  than a how do
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_03: people feel about things now mindset.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_03: So I think that,
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_03: but for the most part,
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_03: everyone's just,
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_03: they're just looking to the next election.
• 22:13
  It's,
• 22:14
  you know,
• 22:14
  to the next election or after this term,
• 22:17
  I'm done anyways.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_03: It doesn't matter what I do,
• 22:20
  which is a dark place to be because that shouldn't be how
• 22:23
  you're thinking.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_03: You're entrusted.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_03: You're entrusted by people.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_03: with power over them and their lives, and you need to act like it.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, no notes.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_03: I'm good at these stem winders.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_03: What can I say?
• 22:37
  Well,
• 22:41
  frankly,
• 22:41
  if I say anything back to you,
• 22:43
  you'll just tell me why I'm wrong.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's probably true.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: No, no, I don't have a whole lot else to say about that.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 22:55
  I guess I'm a little bit annoyed that so many in our country
• 23:00
  don't see this.
• 23:01
  It seems so clear,
• 23:02
  black and white to me,
• 23:04
  and it's annoying that others don't.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, I do think we need to be better at our messaging.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: I do think we need to be...
• 23:15
  investing in anti-communist anti-marxist education i think that
• 23:23
  we stopped doing a
• 23:24
  lot of that we stopped looking at the commies as the bad guys
• 23:28
  um i don't know when
• 23:29
  that stopped but some point between when i was growing up and
• 23:32
  my kids we have kind
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: of taken away all of that and um
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: I will continue to to bang on the beat the commies drum.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm a little distressed that our country has moved away from that.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_03: Well,
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_03: after because it was a mistake,
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_03: a tactical mistake,
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_03: I think,
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_03: for the we just communism was very much integralized with Soviet Union.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_03: Like when people thought about communists,
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_03: still,
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_03: I think if you say communists,
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_03: pictures of the Soviets spring to mind.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry, I laughed so hard at how you say Soviet.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_01: It sounds like Serviette.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_03: It's Soviet.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_01: Soviet.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_03: Soviet.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_03: But so you end up with after after the Soviet Union fell,
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_03: people go,
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_03: well,
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_03: communism's done and that we don't really need to worry about it anymore.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_03: We won.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_03: The West won.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_03: Freedom won.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_03: Yay.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_03: Let's move on.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_03: And then we stopped talking about it.
• 24:41
  And then it insidiously worked its way back into because it
• 24:46
  never went away,
• 24:47
  never died.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_03: No.
• 24:50
  I've said before,
• 24:50
  Stalin— And now it's entrenched in American educational system.
• 24:57
  The Democratic Socialists of America are an overtly communist
• 25:03
  party that is,
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_03: in fact,
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_03: eating the Democratic Party from the inside.
• 25:08
  I don't think most Democrats are not aware of the extent to
• 25:12
  which their party is
• 25:13
  being devoured from the inside to later be worn as a skin suit
• 25:18
  by the DSA.
• 25:19
  I'm going to link,
• 25:22
  actually upload it in because it was an Instagram I downloaded.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't text it to you yet, but I was going to text you.
• 25:29
  It's an Instagram reel of this girl who's looking at Tucker
• 25:32
  Carlson's merch shop.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_00: And this girl is an avowed New York socialist.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: And she's scrolling through his merch and she's like, yeah.
• 25:41
  so she's like i hate it they're so funny they're so great and
• 25:45
  literally it's just
• 25:46
  tucker like marketing socialist merch at this point and talking
• 25:51
  about how neocons
• 25:53
  are gay for israel and i'm like and she's just like ah it's so
• 25:57
  great i'm buying all
• 25:58
  of this and i'm like okay this is who we are now we we gave up
• 26:03
  on the slamming the
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_00: commies and it
• 26:06
  I don't even know if it's a horseshoe theory thing or if it's
• 26:09
  just that it's
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_03: actually just slid all the way around to the other side.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that is horseshoe theory.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: He just completed the loop.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_03: Horseshoe theory implies a gap in between.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_03: I don't think it's a gap.
• 26:22
  There's a lot of these people are just literally just extreme
• 26:27
  hard left liberals now.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: even like one of my best friends who has always been very liberal,
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_00: I always say that she's very Marxist.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_00: And she's like, I don't think I'm that far left.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I was like, no, you are.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's fine.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, I send her these things all the time.
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'm like, you're on Tucker Carlson and Nick Bontus' side now.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_03: No, no, no.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_03: So that's increasingly they're largely indistinguishable.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_03: Fuentes, as far as I can tell, has never actually voted for a Republican.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_03: You know,
• 26:59
  he pretends he's talking about the Republicans and like right
• 27:02
  before every
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_03: election,
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_03: I can't vote for them.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_03: I'm voting for Harris.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_00: He's also never felt the warmth of a woman and never will.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_03: True.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_03: But he doesn't want to, though.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_03: With Tucker, it's just he's being ridden by a demon.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_03: That demon that attacked him never left.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_03: It's still with him.
• 27:28
  But he was nuts before that,
• 27:29
  so I don't think that's actually the reasonable argument.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_03: He's just...
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_03: But however,
• 27:33
  I am heartened because I feel like a lot of these people's
• 27:35
  influence is waning very
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_03: badly.
• 27:38
  And Trump basically called Tucker a loser who he doesn't care
• 27:41
  about yesterday.
• 27:42
  So,
• 27:43
  you know,
• 27:43
  that is heartening for me and should be disheartening for J.D.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_03: Vance.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_03: We're still connected.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'm back.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_03: Hello.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_03: I don't even know.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_03: Have you already locked up again?
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_03: No, you did lock up.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_03: Now you're back.
• 27:55
  I gave a little speech because I was trying to kill time until
• 27:58
  you reconnected,
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_03: and now it's like it's gone.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, well, I'm back.
• 28:02
  I don't even know how usable this is going to be because it's
• 28:04
  all fractured.
• 28:07
  yeah there's that look if it sucks i'll clip just this part um
• 28:14
  i think we may have
• 28:14
  to call it because my starlink is loaded with snow and i am i
• 28:21
  don't know if you can
• 28:22
  hear my kids screaming in the background um i'm gonna have one
• 28:26
  of them get up onto
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_00: the snowy roof and clear off the dish but
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_03: Good call.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_03: All right.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_03: Well, I will see you.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a really good mom.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: So really quickly.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_00: Amen.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_00: Really quickly.
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_00: We next week is going to be spotty.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_00: If this wasn't already, you know, ridiculous.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_00: We will both be traveling.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: Lee will be in Washington, D.C., which we will hear about.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_00: We will probably try to do a recording at some point next week,
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_00: maybe when I get to our undisclosed location ahead of time.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_00: If not...
• 29:03
  Please be patient and stay tuned because we have what we think
• 29:08
  is going to be very,
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_00: very interesting coming up soon in this little field trip.
• 29:15
  But be patient because it might take a bit because outside of
• 29:19
  the fact that I don't
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: have reliable Internet at home,
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: I am going to be going to a place where hopefully they have Internet.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_03: So yes, indeed.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_03: All right.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_03: Goodbye.