Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 6 - 3/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 6 - 3/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode six of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday, but more importantly, Happy March
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Madness. The madness is upon us, guys.
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No more first fours. We got the official bracket, the
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official tourney. It's already under way.
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We already have teams punching their tickets to round two as
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Michigan State just had a big win over Mississippi State.
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We got a lot of sweats going on as we speak and we have a lot to
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get to on today's pod because I have A5 pack of sweats for you
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guys. I have 4 college basketball best
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bets for you in terms of March Madness for today, looking at
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some very contrarian opportunities as well as a very
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sharp dog to faith line move. And then I am going to have an
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NHL bet for you. I know it's going to be wall to
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wall March Madness, which of course it deserves to be because
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this is the best time of year to be betting on sports.
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But we aren't going to be in NHL because we've been hot here
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recently in the NHL. So we have a bet on a money line
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play in a really good rest first tired situation advantage play
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that we'll talk about in the NHL.
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So overall 5 pack 4 college hoops one NHL.
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And I do want to mention a couple things.
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One thank you to everyone who tuned in to the first ever.
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Josh Applebaum James Santor, all systems Go rhythm live stream on
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Twitter. Me and my buddy James put it
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together. James representing rhythm.
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Of course I'm representing of course the All Systems Gopod,
1:51
but we had a live stream from noon to two and it was the first
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time we've done it. I didn't know how it was going
1:57
to go. I was pretty confident that
1:58
we're going to have a good time. But I was wondering, hey, what
2:00
kind of reception will we receive?
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What kind of audience would we generate?
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And we had a lot of fun. We went up to 1400 people
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watching the live stream at one point.
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So it means a lot that you guys tuned in.
2:11
We went through all the games. It's also you can even if you
2:14
missed it you can go to my Twitter page or the All Systems
2:17
Go Twitter page or the Rhythm or James Santor's Twitter page and
2:21
you can rewatch the whole thing if you want.
2:23
But we're also joined by Brian who is one of the sharpest guys
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behind rhythm Fascinating guy. We are picking his brain and
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we're talking about each game. My take on it what does rhythm
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have? Oh I got the dog.
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Oh we got the favorite oh we both got the under.
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So it's really cool to go through all the games answer use
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your questions gave away a few rhythm subscript, few free
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rhythm subscriptions as well but 1400 people tuned into the the
2:47
live stream. So thank you all for tuning in.
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Now real quick before we dive in our sweats for today guys.
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Yesterday 2 and 2 -, 0.4 units a bit of a wash had a good couple
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good hits on the Kings didn't have to sweat that thing at all.
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NHL which is why I don't want to abandon NHL.
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I got a bet for you here for tonight but the Kings little 6.
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Nothing win Little baseball score with a really good
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back-to-back take the favorite system match then also Grambling
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State was a nice hit early in the in the day.
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Grambling State was down big at one point, came back one in
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overtime and that was a line freeze.
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Public was Montana State but we had a conturian Ken Palm edge
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with Grambling. Ken Palm only had him losing by
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two. So getting the 4 1/2 even if you
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got a 5. Great hit there toward Grambling
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State. The annoying ones were Princeton
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because Princeton we did our part.
3:32
We beat the closing line. We got Princeton on the money
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line when they were -3 they end up closing.
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Do you guys see where they closed 4 1/2?
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They end up losing the UNLV which is disappointing.
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And also Boise State had Boise State getting 3 1/2 top
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contrarian play of the night. Tip your cap to the public.
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They got a they got a winner there in Colorado.
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But Boise State had a couple chances late and they actually
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had a lead with like under 3 minutes to go and coughed it up.
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So either way guys turning our attention toward today, see if
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we can post a winning day on the first round, official first
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round, beginning of March Madness here.
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So let's starve it into our sweats because I have a few for
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you here that I want to get to and they're coming up shortly,
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so I want to get this pot out in time.
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So if you want to ride with me, you can get my insights here.
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So anyway, first but on the board for me, as I mentioned, 4
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bets in college basketball. Oregon, South Carolina.
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I'm going with the Oregon Ducks, baby.
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Give me ducks on the money line. Shop around.
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I got Oregon around -120. Oregon is now around -130.
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But this is a game that has a really, really sharp dog to fave
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line move in favor of Oregon. So Oregon comes in as the eleven
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seed versus you have South Carolina, the sixth seed and
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right off the bat Oregon's -2. So we're talking about fishy
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lines and we were getting ready for March Madness on Monday.
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What do we say? We said don't go off the
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seeding, go off with the betting market is telling you.
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Remember the seeds are created by humans who are biased versus
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the betting market which is much more efficient.
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So we're off the bat, Oregon's the 11, S, Carolina's the 6th,
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yet Oregon's favored by two. That should tell you at the very
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beginning there that we have fishy play in favor of Oregon
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because you would assume that obviously the six would be
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favored over the 11, not the other way around.
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But even if you throw that out, look at the betting market.
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Sharp move here toward the Oregon Ducks.
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The Ducks opened about a point and a half dog They flipped to a
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-, 2 favorite. So dog to fave line move.
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The other thing I like is that it's all game day movement.
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Like when I woke up this morning Oregon was at -1.
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Now they're two. So even further movement toward
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Oregon throughout the morning and early afternoon tells us
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that smart money has continued to come in on the Ducks, which
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is a great sign that they continue to be sharp.
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You also look at the bet split about 60% bets 70% money is
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Oregon is on Oregon here and the Ducks really got hot at the
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right time. They didn't have the you know
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the best regular season but they won their conference tournament
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got hot late and we do have a good sharp dog to fave line move
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again open South Carolina favored.
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Now he flipped to Oregon favored.
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I love this spot here to go in favor of the Ducks.
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So I money line the Ducks I got Oregon -120 again.
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Now you're looking at the Ducks around -130.
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Next bet for you Nevada Dayton. Now I'll be honest, I was torn
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with this one. I have sweat Nevada late night.
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I'm a I'm a Boston guy. East Coast guy.
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I can't tell you how many games you know 10:00 late night sweats
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that were on you know CBS Sports or Fox Sports 1 or Spock Fox
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Sports 2. But Nevada was a team that I did
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like to bet on quite a bit. Blackshear's great Jared Lucas
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likable team. But this is the time of year
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where you don't let what happened in the regular season
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kind of push you into a bad bet or talk you out of a good bet.
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So what I'm getting at here is even though Nevada has cashed
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some tickets for me during the regular season, the betting
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market tells me that Dayton is the sharp play here.
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So I'm going with Dayton. I got Dayton plus 1 1/2 shop
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around because there's a lot of ones, but there are some 1 1/2's
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out there. But what I like in favor of
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Dayton is a really sharp contrarian reverse line move.
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So this game open Nevada -1 1/2 and we pretty much, you know,
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won one and a half 1 1/2 so quickly.
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Up to one is mostly 1 1/2, but the public plays Nevada kind of
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what I remember. The public remembers Nevada has
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been a good team this year in the Mountain West.
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However, Nevada is getting 70% of bets.
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Yet the lines falling away from Nevada, Nevada open -1, 1/2 the
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lines down to one. Again, shop around, try to get
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the hook on the 1 1/2. Even if you can get, because I
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see 1 1/2 out there, there's a lot of ones that are juiced up.
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But you can even look at a -, 1 at -115 toward Nevada and by
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updating, you know, plus one at plus 1, 1/2 at like -120, that
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sort of thing. So I'm going to take a shot here
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out with Dayton in the points, but they're super contrarian,
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one of the top contrarian plays the day.
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Dayton is only getting around 30% of bets, they have late
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movement plus 1 1/2 down to one. And here's where it gets good.
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Ken Palm Woo, Woo, Ken Palm. Sound the alarm.
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He has Dayton winning this game. He's got Dayton winning the game
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by one point. So for super contrarian.
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And we are against the public and we have late movement in our
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favor and we have a Ken Palm Edge that's a pretty good angle
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there to take a shot and back and back Dayton.
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Now Dayton also we're going to bank on their offense.
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Better offensive efficiency, 19th in the country versus 36th,
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better effective field goal percentage, 57% versus 53%,
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better three-point shooting, 40% versus 37%.
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So I'm going to hold out for the hook, either wait for it or buy
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it up. But I'm going Dayton in the
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points contrarian sharp buyback. Ken Palm Edge.
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I'm on the Dayton Flyers plus 1 1/2.
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Keep on cruising. Now this one I've been a little
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bit surprised by. It's been a little bit back and
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forth. Colorado State and Texas.
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Now Colorado State obviously had a huge win for us a couple days
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ago when they crushed Virginia who should be relegated and
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never play in March Madness ever again because they're so
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freaking boring. But anyway, Colorado State
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already has a win under their belt this game Open and again,
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Colorado State is the 10 seed. Texas is the seven, but this
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one's been back and forth now. Texas opened as a three-point
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neutral site favorite. The line this morning, early
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this morning got all the way down to Texas -2.
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But once it got down to -2 it came back and it's now back up
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to Texas -3. And there are some shops that
9:15
are juiced up like it may go to 3 1/2.
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So what I'm going to do is I'm sticking with Colorado State
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again. Maybe that that was a head fake.
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Billy Walters is famous for the head fake of, you know, maybe he
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hit tech Colorado State early. Drop the line down to two
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because you want to get a better number on Texas, that sort of
9:31
thing. But I'm going to stick with
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Colorado State here. I'm going to shop around, try to
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get a 3 1/2 if I can. If not, I'll take the three.
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But what I like about this one is it's a contrarian play only.
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Only. Sorry, 60% of bets on Texas, so
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Publix on Texas, bigger name school.
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Colorado State's only getting 40%.
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It's been a line freeze or reverse line move in their
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favor. Again, if it goes to 3 1/2 then
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it'll technically be taking up toward Texas 33 up to 3 1/2 but
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open 3 still 3, but in between it's gotten all the way down to
10:00
two. So basically reading between the
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lines, all movement liabilities. And on the Colorado State side,
10:05
but then also Colorado State is contrarian and a really good bet
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split. Colorado State is only getting
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40% of bets but 50% of the money.
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So it tells us the bigger sharper wagers here are on
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Colorado State and also Ken Palm.
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Ken Palm has Colorado State losing by 1, so if we're getting
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A + 3, Ken Palm's got him losing by one.
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Again, that's actual value right there to back Colorado State.
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Better defensive efficiency, 30th in the country versus 61st,
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better at taking care of the ball and not turning it over
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54th and turnovers versus 156 for Texas.
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And also if you are looking at Colorado State here, kind of the
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rest versus rust. Yeah, Texas has rested, but
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Colorado State has already played a tournament game,
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already gotten a win. Can they carry that momentum
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into today? But Long story short, if you can
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get a 3 1/2, even better you can hold out for it is a 6:50 PM
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game. Although none of these games
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start on time, they'll always be 1020 minutes late.
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But anyway, I'm going Colorado State here.
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We'll call it a + 3 or we can get the hook on the 3 1/2.
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Even better then last bet of the Night, which is a late night
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game and it is the number one Conturian play of the night.
11:13
Drake and Washington State. And I'm going with Wazoo baby.
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Let's go Washington State. Now everyone and their mother is
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on Drake. First thing you got to know
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about this one. Drake is your ten seed.
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Washington State is your 7th seat, but everybody is on team
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Drake here. Drake is getting 81% of spread
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bets. That's the most popular bet of
11:35
the day across the sports betting market.
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So before we even talk about line movement, system matches,
11:39
anything like that? Got a note that this is the
11:42
number one public play on Drake, which creates an opportunity to
11:45
take the number one contrarian play and fade Drake and take
11:48
Washington State. Now if you tell me like Drake,
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the early move was in your favor.
11:52
This game opened some shots shops, Washington State favored
11:56
by one. It flipped to at one point Drake
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-1, 1/2 even got up to Drake -2. But even though 80% of bets, 81%
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of bets of DraftKings are on Drake, they got up to -2 -, 1
12:08
1/2, and now they've come back down to -1.
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So if everyone's betting Drake, why don't we get up to Drake -2
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1/2, -, 3? No, it's come back the other way
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and come back down toward Washington State.
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So that tells me we have sharp buy back on Washington State.
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They're only getting 20% of bets again, last game of the night
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this year, chase game like your Hawaii game in NBA or in college
12:28
basketball or college football, if the public has a good day,
12:31
they're going to double down, triple down on Drake.
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If they have a bad day, they're going to chase Drake.
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So this is going to be the ultimate Drake thirsty Thursday
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late night play, but I'm going to take Washington State.
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Not only are they contrarian, not only did they get up to plus
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2 + 1 1/2 down to +1 again, wise line going toward wazoo.
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If everyone's betting Drake, but also Ken Palm has Washington
12:51
State winning this game, he's going to winning by 1.
12:54
Washington State is also ranked higher, 38th versus 51st.
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And if you also look at the offensive rebound percentage,
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33% versus 24%. Better defensive efficiency,
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28th versus 72nd. So I'm going to go Washington
13:09
State here guys. Shop around.
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You may be able to find a book at 1 1/2 if you can find that
13:14
I'm taking the 1 1/2. If not I'll take the plus one.
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But I'm going to go Washington State here.
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The ultimate bet against the public play.
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I'm going wazoo. Ideally 1 1/2 if not one.
13:24
So best bets for tonight. Oregon Ducks money line, Dayton,
13:28
Colorado State and Washington State with the points.
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Those are your three spread bets.
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Keep on cruising. Got one more play for you on a
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big March Madness Thursday. Let's go to the NHL.
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So one game in particular caught my eye in the NHLI.
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Know it's March Madness wall to wall and I'll be sweating all
13:47
these games today, of course, alongside you guys.
13:50
But this one caught my eye. The Nashville Predators and the
13:53
Florida Panthers, I'm going to go Panthers here, give me the
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Panthers. I got the Panthers, shop around.
13:58
I got them at -175. So it's a money line bet of
14:02
course whether you're Oregon money line, Florida money line
14:05
any any any bet we make is always bet Tris first bet to
14:08
win. So I always want to mention this
14:09
because we have new people listening to the pod which is
14:13
which is great as the pod continues to grow as we're now
14:15
ranked 46th among sports pods, which is great because this is
14:19
only episode 6 so it's only the beginning.
14:21
But anyway, I want to make it very clear that not only should
14:25
what I recommend a flat better So you're always risking 1 unit,
14:29
but you're also bet to risk, not bet to win, because betting to
14:32
win will make you risk more and you're going to get in trouble
14:35
if any favorites lose. So if you bet to win on Florida,
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you're risking 1.75 units to win one unit.
14:42
No, no, no, no, no. We're always risking 1 unit and
14:45
then letting the price of the odds determine our payout.
14:47
So Florida is a risk of one unit at -175.
14:51
If they win the game for us, hopefully tonight we're going to
14:53
get a, you know, a little bit more than 1/2 unit back.
14:56
That's very important because if they lose, you know we don't
14:58
want to lose at all. But if we do lose, we only want
15:00
to lose 1 unit, not 1.75. S always want to make that
15:03
clear, but anyway, I like Florida for a couple reasons.
15:05
It's not a huge line move play. You know Florida pretty much
15:09
open -175. I do see some books up to -180,
15:12
so it is moving a little bit toward Florida here.
15:14
Shop round again. -175 is your best price here.
15:18
But this is a really good rest first tired play.
15:20
If you look at the Florida Panthers, they have been off
15:22
since the 16th. Hockey obviously is a really
15:25
grueling sport, but they haven't played since Saturday.
15:27
So that is a big, you know, four or five days between their last
15:30
game. Now if you look at Nashville,
15:33
they last played on the 19th, so they've only had one day off
15:36
here. So it's a really good rest.
15:37
First tired in favor of Florida. Also, it's a buy low on Florida
15:41
because they have lost two straight games.
15:44
So when you lose two straight, you got to sit on that for a
15:47
long time and and think about your loss and you know it eats
15:50
at you. To me that's more added
15:52
motivation to get back in the green, to play well, to kind of
15:56
erase that bad memory of your last bad loss.
15:58
Always like good teams that are on a long layoff after a loss
16:01
after two losses. Again, another even even greater
16:04
of a motivational edge here. But also you look at, you know,
16:08
offensively these teams about even.
16:09
They're both averaging around 3.3 goals per game, but
16:12
defensively much better. For Florida, they're only giving
16:15
up 2.4 goals a game versus 3 for Nashville.
16:19
Also better power play, 26% versus 20%, better penalty kill,
16:24
82% versus 76%. And I'm really going to bank on
16:28
the goaltending tonight because it looks like it's a big edge in
16:31
favor of Florida and against Nashville here because Nashville
16:36
is expecting to start Kevin Lincoln and it's not going to be
16:39
UC Soros. It's Lincoln.
16:40
That's their backup. He's got a three-point O nine
16:42
goals against 897 save percentage.
16:45
Not very good. Who do we have for Florida?
16:47
They're stud goalie Bobrovski, 2.35 goals against 9/16 save
16:51
percentage. So we have the better goalie.
16:54
We have a backup for Nashville. We have rested Florida looking
16:56
to bounce back after a 2 game losing streak and I do have some
17:00
systems here, rested home favorite.
17:02
So if you're a home favorite in the NHL and you've had at least
17:05
three days between your last game and your current game last
17:08
two seasons, that is a 67% system and a sweet spot.
17:12
Big favorite system over the last three seasons is a 69% win
17:16
rate. So those would both match
17:17
tonight on Florida. So I'm going Florida Panthers on
17:20
the money line at -175. So that about does it for
17:26
episode six of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast.
17:30
And of course, I always want to mention that if you enjoy the
17:33
pod, which again, we're like we're like a baby.
17:36
We're we're learning to walk, learning to crawl.
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We're like a little sea that just sprouted out of the ground.
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We want to give it water, we want to give it sunlight.
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If you enjoy the pod and you like what you hear, then I would
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love for you to help us spread the word about the All Systems
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Go Pod. So if you can give this pod five
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stars on Spotify or whatever platform you use to listen to
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it. If you also want to follow the
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All Systems go Twitter page at under score ASG under score
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Podcast. That would mean a ton to me.
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Also, if you want to learn more about data-driven, sharp
18:07
contrary embedding and you want to go buy my book, that would
18:10
mean a lot. Everything I talk about, it's
18:12
all from the data-driven perspective.
18:14
And if you want to have, you know, hold something in your
18:16
hand, have something to write in the margins, have a point of
18:19
emphasis, then just go to Amazon.com and type in the
18:22
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
18:24
You're going to learn more about how lines are set, how and why
18:27
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
18:29
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
18:32
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
18:35
It's all included in my book, the The Everything Guide to
18:38
Sports Betting. You're also going to get a lot
18:39
of March Madness tips. Baseball is right around the
18:42
corner, which we will bet on a daily basis once we get out of
18:45
the International Series and actually start for real in
18:49
America. By the way, everyone see that
18:51
crazy article? Ohtani and his translator.
18:54
What a weird story. Gambling debts.
18:56
He he stole money from him. Who the heck knows That sounds
18:58
like there's more more to that story.
19:01
But don't worry, we will be talking baseball on a daily
19:03
basis. But seriously, support the pod.
19:06
Give it a like. Give it five stars.
19:07
Buy my book, The Everything Guide to Sports Betting if you
19:09
appreciate the pod and want to learn more about sports betting.
19:12
But that all does it. So I I got a busy day today.
19:16
I wouldn't have it any other way really.
19:18
Really want to thank you again for tuning into the live stream.
19:20
It was really just fantastic and I think James and I both said
19:24
hey, we got to do this more often.
19:25
It's a lot of fun. People jump in, give questions
19:28
and what did I say? We'll be up to 1400 people.
19:31
That's pretty darn good. So tells me that we got a great
19:34
community here of data-driven betters.
19:36
But anyway guys, that about does it for the pod.
19:38
Enjoy March Madness. Another huge day for tomorrow,
19:42
so get ready. I'll have another pod tomorrow.
19:44
Hopefully. Maybe get out a little bit
19:45
earlier. Maybe we can touch on some more
19:47
bets here. But I wish you the best of luck.
19:49
Have a fantastic Thursday. The madness is here.
19:53
And of course my parting words as always.
19:56
Stay sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
19:58
Place yourself on the side of the house.
20:00
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
20:02
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
20:05
Look at Princeton. Last night we did our part.
20:07
Anticipated the sharp line move, beat the closing line.
20:09
They just didn't come through. For us that can be.
20:12
The most frustrating part of sports betting, but you got to
20:14
remember it's a long term approach.
20:15
We can consistently find games that fit our model from a
20:18
database perspective against the public, With the house, with the
20:22
pros, Flat bet, avoid parlays, get some CLV.
20:25
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters
20:28
long term. So enjoy the madness everyone.
20:30
Let's see if we can cash some tickets here for tonight.
20:32
I wish you the best of luck and thank you for tuning in to
20:35
episode six of the all systems. Gopod.
20:38
Pardon me, I got to get back to the madness.
20:40
Good luck everybody. See you tomorrow.