Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NCAAF + NFL Best Bets Thanksgiving 11/27/25
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:11Speaker 2: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:14Speaker 2: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
- 0:17Speaker 2: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 2: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
- 0:24Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all all
- 0:26Speaker 1: in four that have not had a good season. Man
- 0:31Speaker 1: with wickends slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
- 0:36Speaker 2: I've reached into peak.
- 0:38Speaker 1: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hack Man, I
- 0:42Speaker 1: don't know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
- 0:45Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
- 0:47Speaker 2: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
- 0:51Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. I don't even know what
- 0:53Speaker 2: data is anymore. Man, back with you after the worst
- 0:57Speaker 2: day that I could.
- 0:58Speaker 1: Possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
- 1:01Speaker 2: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
- 1:05Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me.
- 1:07Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:11Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
- 1:13Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. To the Slump series,
- 1:16Speaker 1: The Slump.
- 1:17Speaker 2: Discontinuous, The Slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:22Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
- 1:25Speaker 1: point other than potentially.
- 1:27Speaker 2: End it all. What's up, everybody, It's Toad back with you.
- 1:34Speaker 2: This is Toadstool.
- 1:36Speaker 1: Sports for Thursday aka Thanksgiving, November twenty seventh.
- 1:43Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving everybody.
- 1:44Speaker 1: Hopefully everybody is going to be joining in the festivities today,
- 1:49Speaker 1: seeing family, having good food, et cetera.
- 1:52Speaker 2: It's what it's all about, mister Pinsey. What's up man?
- 1:55Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. We are we are the hot.
- 1:57Speaker 1: Hand, not not just because of all my masturbating, but yes,
- 2:04Speaker 1: we've been really hot on the show four and oh yesterday,
- 2:08Speaker 1: for six and oh yesterday, for eight, four and oh
- 2:11Speaker 1: the day before that, for ten and oh over the
- 2:13Speaker 1: last two days.
- 2:14Speaker 2: Man.
- 2:16Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean possibly got a little bit lucky on
- 2:18Speaker 1: a couple of the games yesterday.
- 2:20Speaker 2: Hold on, I gotta make sure my audio levels are
- 2:22Speaker 2: all right here? Yeah see here? Are we good or
- 2:25Speaker 2: we good? Or were good? Yeah? Yeah, I think I'm
- 2:29Speaker 2: all right all right.
- 2:30Speaker 1: I just do not like my voice ever, yeah, we
- 2:33Speaker 1: started out nice in the afternoon. Texas Tech, I mean,
- 2:36Speaker 1: they don't look great in the first half. I think
- 2:38Speaker 1: they're only up like nine at the half or something.
- 2:40Speaker 1: I'm like, well, the dominant team sometimes can put it
- 2:44Speaker 1: away completely in the second half, and they definitely did that.
- 2:48Speaker 1: They covered every number. The line was up till like
- 2:50Speaker 1: twenty nine when the game went off. So again, these
- 2:53Speaker 1: college basketball lines move like crazy, so hopefully you can
- 2:56Speaker 1: get the better number by me doing this. Sometimes number
- 3:00Speaker 1: goes in the other direction. Although that is kind of
- 3:03Speaker 1: what I said with the other game. I said on
- 3:04Speaker 1: the other game, I thought you could wait and get
- 3:06Speaker 1: a better number, which was also true. Neither of them
- 3:09Speaker 1: really actually mattered, But yeah, Texas Tech won by I
- 3:11Speaker 1: think thirty two, so they covered every single number, although
- 3:15Speaker 1: it was a lot more comfortable at the twenty five
- 3:17Speaker 1: and a half. We have people revving their engines out there.
- 3:21Speaker 1: You probably can't hear it. Sounds like a motorcycle.
- 3:24Speaker 2: Oh my god.
- 3:27Speaker 1: Kansas got us the outright win as well. That as
- 3:30Speaker 1: I pointed out on the show, I thought you could
- 3:32Speaker 1: wait and get a better number on it. It got
- 3:34Speaker 1: up to six at its peak, I believe, probably I
- 3:37Speaker 1: think I'm assuming the people who play people who played it,
- 3:40Speaker 1: probably the majority of people were able to get about
- 3:42Speaker 1: five and a half on that. But it didn't even
- 3:44Speaker 1: matter because they won outright. So Kansas, they were hanging
- 3:48Speaker 1: in the game. They were behind, but not by a lot,
- 3:50Speaker 1: and then they had a nice push at the end
- 3:53Speaker 1: and won the game outright. And then Hockey swept the
- 3:56Speaker 1: board four and Zho Pittsburgh got the job done for US.
- 4:00Speaker 1: I think it was a pretty easy win with Pittsburgh
- 4:02Speaker 1: to start it off. The New York Rangers pretty easy
- 4:05Speaker 1: win as well. I think they won by multiple goals,
- 4:07Speaker 1: so the puck line didn't even come into play. They
- 4:10Speaker 1: hit on the money line, so either way we did it.
- 4:14Speaker 2: That was a win. Toronto. Toronto might have been a
- 4:19Speaker 2: little bit lucky man.
- 4:20Speaker 1: The game statistically, I think was pretty close, but they
- 4:23Speaker 1: were losing that game one to nothing with three minutes
- 4:26Speaker 1: to go. But after the way the Ducks took me
- 4:29Speaker 1: out with four seconds left. When they tied the game
- 4:32Speaker 1: with four seconds left against Utah the other night, I'll
- 4:35Speaker 1: take a game like Toronto. Toronto scored with three minutes
- 4:39Speaker 1: left in the game and then they won in overtime,
- 4:41Speaker 1: so we got the win on Toronto in fairly dramatic fashion.
- 4:45Speaker 1: And then Vancouver they got out played in the game.
- 4:48Speaker 1: Like if you look at the statistics, they well, I
- 4:51Speaker 1: think they were actually the more physical team in their game,
- 4:53Speaker 1: but they actually got outshot by a lot. So it
- 4:56Speaker 1: was like a game that maybe Vancouver shouldn't have won,
- 4:58Speaker 1: but they but they were inning three to one. They
- 5:01Speaker 1: get to the third period, I think, so I was like,
- 5:04Speaker 1: or maybe it was late in the second period, I
- 5:06Speaker 1: was like, all right, we're looking pretty good here for
- 5:08Speaker 1: Vancouver at least to push this thing and cover on
- 5:10Speaker 1: the puck line. But I'm like, you know, or yeah,
- 5:15Speaker 1: cover on the puck line part of it. Yeah, But
- 5:17Speaker 1: I'm thinking I want to sweep today, you know. I'm thinking,
- 5:19Speaker 1: we have everything is going our way. We have the
- 5:22Speaker 1: six and zero right in our grasp now. And then
- 5:25Speaker 1: Vancouver blew the lead and the game became a three
- 5:27Speaker 1: to three tie. But then Vancouver was able to take
- 5:30Speaker 1: the lead back late and make it four to three,
- 5:32Speaker 1: and then I think they scored another goal. I don't
- 5:34Speaker 1: know if it was an empty net or what, but
- 5:36Speaker 1: they were up five to three, and then Anaheim scored
- 5:38Speaker 1: once more, just garbage time again, Anaheim's scoring late, but
- 5:42Speaker 1: this time it didn't matter because Vancouver had the two
- 5:45Speaker 1: goal leads, so we got to win on that one too. Yeah,
- 5:49Speaker 1: rolling into Thanksgiving, it's gonna be a light card today.
- 5:52Speaker 1: I'm in the board is not very heavy. I'm gonna
- 5:55Speaker 1: give some opinions on some of these, on all of
- 5:57Speaker 1: the games basically, but we have one play in college basketball,
- 6:01Speaker 1: in one play in the NFL. That's That's what I've
- 6:03Speaker 1: narrowed it down to for today. So hopefully everybody's alright
- 6:06Speaker 1: with that and be it selective?
- 6:08Speaker 2: Yes, sir Jeffrey, what's up man, bad Andy? What's up? Man? MVP?
- 6:15Speaker 1: And what what sport are we talking about? We're talking
- 6:18Speaker 1: about NFL? Probably, ah Man. It's like almost always a quarterback.
- 6:25Speaker 1: It's almost always on a team that's a winning team.
- 6:28Speaker 1: Do they announce the m v P at the end
- 6:30Speaker 1: of the regular season or does it I forget when
- 6:32Speaker 1: they announce it, because it's always gonna be a team
- 6:35Speaker 1: that's winning. Oh my god, man, I mean something is
- 6:41Speaker 1: telling me it's gonna be mahomes dude. That that's what
- 6:45Speaker 1: I think. I think the Chiefs they're gonna go on
- 6:48Speaker 1: a run. They're like almost obviously gonna make the playoffs.
- 6:51Speaker 2: They're under the radar.
- 6:52Speaker 1: There's still one of the like top teams in football,
- 6:55Speaker 1: so you probably know which way I'm leaning in the
- 6:57Speaker 1: Thanksgiving game that they're in today as well.
- 6:59Speaker 2: But that would be what I think right now.
- 7:01Speaker 1: What are the Let me look at the odds on
- 7:03Speaker 1: it right now, because I do actually not know. Let
- 7:09Speaker 1: me see, I don't have to leave for a little while,
- 7:12Speaker 1: so hold on looking at MVP odds here. Oh wait,
- 7:15Speaker 1: it could be Matthew Stafford. I guess right, they're they're
- 7:17Speaker 1: a winning team. But I just, I mean, for some reason,
- 7:21Speaker 1: I just never really even think about Stafford like in
- 7:26Speaker 1: that way, like is he really that good or is
- 7:28Speaker 1: it more that the Rams team is just that awesome.
- 7:31Speaker 1: You can get pat Patrick Mahomes at twenty five to
- 7:34Speaker 1: one right now, though it seems like a decent, decent
- 7:37Speaker 1: option there. He has lower odds than Josh Allen. Matthew
- 7:40Speaker 1: Stafford is the favorite, and then Drake may Is at
- 7:43Speaker 1: two to one.
- 7:45Speaker 2: I don't know if they're gonna give it to may
- 7:47Speaker 2: Man his like first full season.
- 7:49Speaker 1: It just doesn't seem like that's gonna be the case.
- 7:51Speaker 1: I think the Patriots are They've had a really really
- 7:54Speaker 1: easy schedule, let's just put it that way. I think
- 7:57Speaker 1: at some point the wheels are gonna come off of
- 8:00Speaker 1: that train, that wagon to some extent, the Patriots, I mean,
- 8:07Speaker 1: Stafford is obviously in the mix. But dude, I just
- 8:10Speaker 1: I just don't know, like you get like an old
- 8:13Speaker 1: dude like that. Again, it's like his team is just
- 8:16Speaker 1: really really good. Is he really that good? The Predators won,
- 8:20Speaker 1: I'm I mean I leaned that way, but I I
- 8:23Speaker 1: never want to touch the predators, man, unless I'm unless
- 8:27Speaker 1: I'm performing a what is it of civilians arrest?
- 8:33Speaker 2: What do they call that?
- 8:34Speaker 1: That That's the only time I'm gonna touch a predator
- 8:37Speaker 1: or to beat them up.
- 8:39Speaker 2: That's true.
- 8:40Speaker 1: I never lose, correct Cole. Cole cannot do this. Cole
- 8:44Speaker 1: does not like my take.
- 8:45Speaker 2: On the Denver Washington game on Sunday night.
- 8:50Speaker 1: The Predators touch me, Yeah, well I look like a baby,
- 8:53Speaker 1: so they're like all over me. All right, Yeah, let's
- 8:59Speaker 1: get into today's late man. But yeah, obviously I never lose.
- 9:02Speaker 1: But you know, we're running so hot that there's gonna
- 9:06Speaker 1: be some regression in there.
- 9:07Speaker 2: I know we've had a couple of bad days.
- 9:08Speaker 1: In here, but man, it's been a couple of awesome
- 9:11Speaker 1: months on the show. I want to try to continue it.
- 9:13Speaker 1: Let's let's try to do it. We'll start off with
- 9:16Speaker 1: college basketball. Unfortunately for these students.
- 9:20Speaker 2: A lot of these students are having to.
- 9:21Speaker 1: Play in random locations and whatever for college basketball on
- 9:26Speaker 1: Thanksgiving when they probably would rather be attending Thanksgiving festivities.
- 9:30Speaker 1: So you kind of have to try to gauge, like
- 9:34Speaker 1: is this team gonna want to be somewhere else?
- 9:36Speaker 2: I mean, there is that aspect of this.
- 9:38Speaker 1: Like sometimes I think some of the bigger like cold
- 9:41Speaker 1: weather teams, if they're not competing to like try to
- 9:44Speaker 1: win this tournament that they're in or wherever, they might
- 9:46Speaker 1: just say they might just lose focus.
- 9:49Speaker 2: Let's just say, but.
- 9:51Speaker 1: We do have a game at eleven am, and this
- 9:53Speaker 1: is Terry's Chocolate Tournament in Kassimmi, Florida with Richmond and Furman.
- 9:58Speaker 1: I mean, I have absolutely noion on this, although I
- 10:01Speaker 1: could tell you Richmond is a four point favorite down
- 10:04Speaker 1: for four and a half. They're public eighty nine percent
- 10:06Speaker 1: of the tickets. Although again, as I talk about with
- 10:09Speaker 1: these games, I think there really isn't like there's not
- 10:11Speaker 1: heavy public action on most of these games the real degenerates.
- 10:17Speaker 1: Maybe all we gotta have action. At eleven am Eastern Man,
- 10:20Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on Richmond. I mean,
- 10:22Speaker 1: the actual money appears to be on Richmond in that
- 10:26Speaker 1: game as well. They're the somewhat better team, but I
- 10:29Speaker 1: just have no feel for that.
- 10:32Speaker 2: Vandy and VCU.
- 10:33Speaker 1: Vandy at twenty fourth in the country and kem Bam
- 10:35Speaker 1: actually has them ranked in the teams, so he actually
- 10:39Speaker 1: is telling you, according to his metrics, Vandy actually a
- 10:41Speaker 1: little bit under ranked. VCU pretty good team as well,
- 10:45Speaker 1: though this is at noon in the Bahamas in the
- 10:47Speaker 1: Battle for Atlantis.
- 10:49Speaker 2: Vandy, I think they're in.
- 10:51Speaker 1: A better spot here because they had a scare yesterday
- 10:54Speaker 1: against or I think this was yesterday against Western Kentucky.
- 10:57Speaker 2: Yeah, this was yesterday.
- 10:59Speaker 1: Of course, ESPN is screwing me over as much as
- 11:02Speaker 1: they can, right, Like they put the ESPN bet graphic
- 11:06Speaker 1: bat or not graphic but like widget back up here,
- 11:10Speaker 1: and then they and then they take away the game
- 11:13Speaker 1: flow where I want I want to see, like what
- 11:15Speaker 1: was the score, like, when did it get to its closest,
- 11:18Speaker 1: what were.
- 11:19Speaker 2: The win percentage of like what were the win percentages
- 11:21Speaker 2: at that point in the game.
- 11:23Speaker 1: No, ESPN's got to take something away from me, make
- 11:26Speaker 1: it more difficult for me to handicap.
- 11:28Speaker 2: Thank you, ESPN.
- 11:28Speaker 1: But what I can tell you is Western Kentucky was
- 11:31Speaker 1: down ten late in this game, and they came back
- 11:33Speaker 1: to within three late in the game, and then Vandy
- 11:36Speaker 1: wound up winning by five on a couple of free
- 11:38Speaker 1: throws at the end of the game. I think Vandy
- 11:40Speaker 1: did not hit a field goal for the last I
- 11:44Speaker 1: don't know, five minutes of the game, maybe something like that.
- 11:47Speaker 2: So Vandy really had.
- 11:48Speaker 1: An escape here as the much better team, as they
- 11:51Speaker 1: were an eighteen and a half point favorite, and when
- 11:53Speaker 1: that happens, usually that team is going to refocus a
- 11:56Speaker 1: little bit in the next game. So I think that
- 11:57Speaker 1: is going to be the case with Vandy. A VCU
- 12:01Speaker 1: is coming off beating you. South Florida. VCU is a
- 12:06Speaker 1: small favorite in this one. But looking at oh they
- 12:08Speaker 1: put the game flow up for this one. Oh, thank
- 12:09Speaker 1: you ESPN. How nice of you. South Florida was terrible
- 12:14Speaker 1: from three point range in the game. That was really
- 12:16Speaker 1: the one like outlying metric here at fourteen percent from three.
- 12:20Speaker 1: Although Vandy was the better rebounding team, they were pretty
- 12:23Speaker 1: much the better team in the game.
- 12:24Speaker 2: They won the game. I would lean to Vandy in
- 12:28Speaker 2: this game, though.
- 12:29Speaker 1: Vandy is a step up from South Florida quite obviously
- 12:33Speaker 1: their six point favorite for a reason, eighty seven percent
- 12:37Speaker 1: of the tickets we see ninety nine percent of the
- 12:39Speaker 1: cash on Vandy. I don't really agree with. I mean,
- 12:42Speaker 1: I don't think that percentage is accurate. But yeah, I
- 12:45Speaker 1: would lay the points with Vandy. I think they're in
- 12:47Speaker 1: a focused spot after getting a scare from Western Kentucky
- 12:51Speaker 1: in the prior game. So that's what I would do
- 12:53Speaker 1: in that game. Uh. Yes, Terry's chocolate's orange and mint
- 12:59Speaker 1: shape like an orange. You know, I would try it
- 13:03Speaker 1: sounds interesting to me. I've had orange chocolate, I've obviously
- 13:06Speaker 1: I love mint and chocolate. I may have had the
- 13:08Speaker 1: combination of the two. I would do it, though, Andy Andy,
- 13:13Speaker 1: Vandy Andy, right, Andy I think is a Vandy fan. Yeah,
- 13:18Speaker 1: I'm saying I like them in that game though. So
- 13:20Speaker 1: there you go, all right, skipping talking about some of
- 13:25Speaker 1: these other games. We do have some bigger games here
- 13:27Speaker 1: as well. Out in the Las Vegas michelob Ultra Arena.
- 13:31Speaker 1: Part of the players are a tournament. We have Oregon
- 13:34Speaker 1: and Creighton. I believe in the loser's bracket. Both of
- 13:37Speaker 1: these teams have lost both games in the tournament. Oregon,
- 13:41Speaker 1: I mean not really much of a shame in losing
- 13:42Speaker 1: to Auburn and San Diego State. I mean those are
- 13:45Speaker 1: good teams. Oregon not quite as good this year. Really, Creighton.
- 13:50Speaker 1: I believe Creighton is the better team ken Bum. I
- 13:53Speaker 1: think is Creton about twenty ranking spots higher than Oregon.
- 13:56Speaker 1: Creighton also lost. They lost to Baylor and Iowa State,
- 14:00Speaker 1: so they pretty they debatably lost to the better teams
- 14:05Speaker 1: than Oregon did in this tournament. So Creighton, I guess
- 14:08Speaker 1: a little bit more battle tested. Both teams are coming
- 14:10Speaker 1: off losses that were not close, So I think as
- 14:13Speaker 1: far as the situation, I don't really think it benefits
- 14:16Speaker 1: one team or the other. I would lean towards Creighton
- 14:20Speaker 1: in this game, but the money is like completely opposite this.
- 14:23Speaker 1: Oregon is up to one point favorite, even though again
- 14:26Speaker 1: according to Kenbump's metrics, Creighton should be like a favorite
- 14:29Speaker 1: of a couple of points. I think Creighton is public
- 14:32Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of tickets only seventy five percent of
- 14:35Speaker 1: the cash, So there's.
- 14:36Speaker 2: Reverse linme movement.
- 14:37Speaker 1: It looks like Oregon is the market read in this
- 14:40Speaker 1: one and getting the live movement against the public. So
- 14:43Speaker 1: I don't really want to fade a market read like that,
- 14:45Speaker 1: especially when I don't really have any strong situation to
- 14:48Speaker 1: rely on there. Though looking at the metrics, the metrics
- 14:52Speaker 1: differ from the from the market in that one. I
- 14:54Speaker 1: don't know if there's an injury going on or what's
- 14:56Speaker 1: going on there, but ken Bum's metrics have Creighton is
- 14:59Speaker 1: the better team. So just putting all that information out there,
- 15:03Speaker 1: no NBA, no NHL, I like it. It makes it
- 15:06Speaker 1: easier for me. Although there's a bunch tomorrow. Brad, what's
- 15:09Speaker 1: up man?
- 15:10Speaker 2: Thank you sir.
- 15:13Speaker 1: Bad beat on the Wolves. I did not think the
- 15:16Speaker 1: Wolves really had a shot to do it. As I
- 15:19Speaker 1: pointed out on the show yesterday, the Timberwolves have zero
- 15:22Speaker 1: wins against winning teams this year. Like, yeah, you figure
- 15:25Speaker 1: they're gonna step it up for a game against OKAC.
- 15:28Speaker 1: I mean, okay, see is the I mean, they're the
- 15:32Speaker 1: best team in the league, so teams are gonna try
- 15:33Speaker 1: to step it up against them. And okay see, they're
- 15:36Speaker 1: continuing to win by margin. They're winning by like at
- 15:38Speaker 1: least thirteen points at home on average. Again, Minnesota has
- 15:42Speaker 1: not won against the winning team all season, as crazy
- 15:46Speaker 1: as that sounds, so I didn't even think they were
- 15:47Speaker 1: gonna cover, although they did. I had the game on
- 15:51Speaker 1: over here. I was up here last night. I had
- 15:54Speaker 1: the game on and it was I know, it was
- 15:55Speaker 1: close later in the game after it looked like, okay see,
- 15:58Speaker 1: it started running away with the game, and then all
- 16:00Speaker 1: of a sudden it was really close in the fourth quarter.
- 16:02Speaker 1: But yeah, Minnesota could not get there. They did cover, though,
- 16:06Speaker 1: So what was the bad beat? I don't know they
- 16:08Speaker 1: if you got like plus ten or whatever. I think
- 16:10Speaker 1: they covered every number. They lost by eight, and I
- 16:13Speaker 1: think the opener was eight and a half, so they covered.
- 16:17Speaker 1: And yes, the Celtics, that was a lean for me.
- 16:20Speaker 1: I'm kind of surprised that they won. But it seemed like,
- 16:23Speaker 1: I don't know, it seemed like a spot where the
- 16:25Speaker 1: Celtics might be able to do it. And there was
- 16:27Speaker 1: all this talk about like Detroit needs to win this
- 16:30Speaker 1: game because they're gonna set a franchise record for fourteen
- 16:34Speaker 1: straight wins.
- 16:34Speaker 2: And like fourteen wins in a row.
- 16:36Speaker 1: I don't know that was like all I was hearing,
- 16:38Speaker 1: like from the media, fourteen wins in a row, Detroit's
- 16:41Speaker 1: gonna do it.
- 16:42Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 16:42Speaker 1: That seemed like it was kind of it seemed like
- 16:46Speaker 1: Detroit was just a little bit too hyped in that game.
- 16:49Speaker 2: They're good.
- 16:50Speaker 1: I don't think they're quite as good as that record.
- 16:52Speaker 1: Celtics a little bit under the radar. Zach, what's up man,
- 16:55Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out again. Yeah, Black Fry, We're gonna
- 17:00Speaker 1: have Yeah, there are gonna be a lot of games
- 17:04Speaker 1: to talk about tomorrow.
- 17:06Speaker 2: We have in Palm Springs.
- 17:08Speaker 1: We do have an interesting one here with San Francisco
- 17:10Speaker 1: and Colorado, which I don't really have. I don't have
- 17:15Speaker 1: much of a situation to talk about in this one,
- 17:17Speaker 1: although San Francisco did just beat Minnesota, which is a
- 17:20Speaker 1: pretty nice win for them over a Big ten team,
- 17:22Speaker 1: although not a great Big ten team. San Francisco is
- 17:25Speaker 1: actually they actually opened the favorite in this game, and
- 17:28Speaker 1: they went off as an underdog, although I thought they
- 17:30Speaker 1: deserve to be the favorite. I actually think San Francisco
- 17:33Speaker 1: is better than Minnesota. The location wasn't great for them,
- 17:37Speaker 1: up in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. That was a favorable
- 17:40Speaker 1: location for Minnesota, but San Francisco got it done anyway.
- 17:44Speaker 1: Now they're back in California, so I do think the
- 17:47Speaker 1: venue does help them in this one against Colorado. Colorado's
- 17:52Speaker 1: I believe Colorado's not as good as San Francisco and
- 17:55Speaker 1: they're sitting at five and zero, but their only good
- 17:57Speaker 1: wins against Providence, and that was a win I gave
- 18:00Speaker 1: on the show here because I talked about that was
- 18:02Speaker 1: that not being a very good spot for Providence having
- 18:05Speaker 1: to go out true road game into elevation. Colorado got
- 18:10Speaker 1: it done for us, but they really have not impressed
- 18:12Speaker 1: so far. I actually think San Francisco may be the
- 18:14Speaker 1: better team, and they're more battle tested because they've won
- 18:18Speaker 1: against Bradley that's a good win. They played Memphis to
- 18:21Speaker 1: within six, which is a pretty good result as well.
- 18:25Speaker 1: So I actually do like San Francisco in this game.
- 18:27Speaker 1: And this is gonna be Colorado's first time I believe
- 18:30Speaker 1: their first time playing on the Pacific Coast because they
- 18:32Speaker 1: played UC Davis, but I think it was at home,
- 18:35Speaker 1: so Colorado having to go to the Pacific Coast don't
- 18:38Speaker 1: love that either. The money seems to agree with San
- 18:41Speaker 1: Francisco here. They're up to a one and a half
- 18:42Speaker 1: point favorite, seventy seven percent of tickets, ninety four percent of.
- 18:46Speaker 2: The cash on them.
- 18:47Speaker 1: That is what I would do in that one, I
- 18:49Speaker 1: would I would go with San Francisco probably money line
- 18:52Speaker 1: on that one deals on underdogs. I'll try to give
- 18:57Speaker 1: you underdogs tomorrow. I don't know what I'm gonna wind
- 18:59Speaker 1: up having tomorrow today. I do not, though, you're not
- 19:03Speaker 1: gonna like today because it's my two players are both favorites,
- 19:08Speaker 1: all right, Yeah, I like I like favorites today. Man,
- 19:13Speaker 1: what can I say? Virginia Tech and Saint Mary's playing
- 19:16Speaker 1: in the Bahamas. Saint Mary's is the better team, even
- 19:19Speaker 1: though they're from a lesser conference. This game is gonna
- 19:21Speaker 1: be an ESPN. It's a good game Virginia. Virginia Tech
- 19:26Speaker 1: is coming off a win over Colorado State. I think
- 19:29Speaker 1: that game was like pretty closely lined though in Colorado
- 19:32Speaker 1: State a little bit down this year. Virginia Tech five
- 19:34Speaker 1: and a half point favorite in that one. They're actually
- 19:37Speaker 1: undefeated right now, although they haven't faced a very difficult schedule.
- 19:41Speaker 1: Their best win is against Providence, who seems to be
- 19:44Speaker 1: a little bit down this year. It'll be a step
- 19:47Speaker 1: up game for them. I expect both teams to show
- 19:49Speaker 1: up in this game. Saint Mary's is legit, although they
- 19:53Speaker 1: haven't totally been battle tested either. They have wins against
- 19:56Speaker 1: some pretty good big some pretty good mid major teams,
- 19:59Speaker 1: and it's a good sign that they blew some of
- 20:01Speaker 1: these teams out, like Saint Thomas and North Texas. Those
- 20:05Speaker 1: are actually solid teams and Saint Mary's annihilated them. And
- 20:08Speaker 1: then they did beat Arkansas State. Not a horrible win
- 20:11Speaker 1: there either. I mean, what win is horror? The only
- 20:14Speaker 1: win that's horrible is when you barely win against a
- 20:16Speaker 1: horrible team. And they beat Witchitime their last outing, and
- 20:19Speaker 1: it wasn't their greatest game. They did not cover as
- 20:23Speaker 1: nine and a half point favorites, which was in this tournament.
- 20:26Speaker 1: So I kind of expect Saint Mary's to maybe turn
- 20:29Speaker 1: it on a little bit more in this one. So
- 20:32Speaker 1: I would agree with the Saint Mary's side, and this
- 20:34Speaker 1: one they're a four point favorite with juice now fifty
- 20:37Speaker 1: two percent of the tickets eighty six percent of the
- 20:39Speaker 1: cash on Saint Mary's. I would probably lay it if
- 20:42Speaker 1: I was gonna do that. Although Saint Mary's, I mean,
- 20:46Speaker 1: I still have a speaking of Vandy and Andy, I
- 20:50Speaker 1: still have kind of a bad taste in my mouth.
- 20:52Speaker 2: Not just because I just belched up.
- 20:54Speaker 1: My pumpkin pie oatmeal that I hate this morning for Thanksgiving.
- 21:00Speaker 1: Make it maked Thanksgiving right when I wake up man
- 21:02Speaker 1: with pumpkin pie oatmeal. But in the tournament last year
- 21:07Speaker 1: Saint Mary's against Vandy, laying the minus four or whatever,
- 21:10Speaker 1: it was one of my plays that I gave out
- 21:12Speaker 1: and they won and didn't cover and they had to
- 21:14Speaker 1: make a huge comeback to even get the win in
- 21:16Speaker 1: that game. So I'm still pissed off at Saint Mary's
- 21:19Speaker 1: for that. They're not They're not a very good favorite,
- 21:23Speaker 1: I will say that because they play so slow, although
- 21:26Speaker 1: it's not really a huge line to have to be
- 21:27Speaker 1: laying in that one. We've TCU in Florida in the
- 21:32Speaker 1: Jenny Craig Pavilion, so we'll have some weight loss program
- 21:39Speaker 1: going on. The weight loss program is playing basketball in
- 21:42Speaker 1: this case. Florida's ranked tenth in the country. I mean,
- 21:45Speaker 1: everybody I think still loves Florida because they won the
- 21:47Speaker 1: championship last year. They're likely to be the public side here.
- 21:51Speaker 1: I mean, they're obviously going to be the favorite here.
- 21:53Speaker 1: TCU is not that good. This is in I forget
- 21:56Speaker 1: what the tournament even is in. It's some sandy a tournament.
- 22:00Speaker 1: I don't even know. It's the Rady Children's Invitational. So
- 22:05Speaker 1: it probably benefits some children's hospital maybe or something like that.
- 22:11Speaker 2: It's for the kids with cancer. TCU. I don't know
- 22:15Speaker 2: what to think about this TCU team. I don't think
- 22:17Speaker 2: they're very good.
- 22:18Speaker 1: But they did have a very close game against Michigan,
- 22:20Speaker 1: which looks pretty good after what Michigan did in the
- 22:24Speaker 1: Las Vegas tournament there, although maybe the teams Michigan was
- 22:27Speaker 1: playing just didn't show up. I mean, I don't think
- 22:30Speaker 1: Michigan is quite as good as they've looked over the
- 22:32Speaker 1: last three days. TCU bounced back with a win over
- 22:35Speaker 1: a bad Kansas City team. I still don't think they're
- 22:39Speaker 1: that good though Florida. I mean, they the time that
- 22:44Speaker 1: they stepped up the most in class. They lost to Arizona.
- 22:47Speaker 1: We know Arizona is quite good. I mean they've looked
- 22:49Speaker 1: quite good so far. They beat Yukon in a true
- 22:53Speaker 1: road game at stores, Connecticut, so that Arizona team seems legit.
- 22:57Speaker 1: Florida barely got by Florida State, but you know Florida State.
- 23:01Speaker 1: They're always gonna step it up for Florida. Huge rivalry
- 23:04Speaker 1: in Florida State is the little brother to them and
- 23:07Speaker 1: has been for a while in basketball, basically always is
- 23:12Speaker 1: in basketball at least. And Florida did beat Miami in
- 23:15Speaker 1: the other rivalry game. Those are their big wins. TCU
- 23:18Speaker 1: not a huge opponent from them, with Florida does have
- 23:20Speaker 1: to face Duke and then Yukon Duke. Almost that was
- 23:24Speaker 1: almost the matchup in.
- 23:26Speaker 2: The championship last year.
- 23:27Speaker 1: A lot of people had Florida Duke in their brackets
- 23:29Speaker 1: and it wound up being Florida Houston. Of course, I
- 23:32Speaker 1: had Houston losing to Auburn, but let's not go there.
- 23:36Speaker 1: Almost at Houston winning the whole thing, and I think
- 23:38Speaker 1: they should have. Florida could be looking ahead to Duke maybe,
- 23:43Speaker 1: although I mean, I don't know. I think they'll still
- 23:44Speaker 1: show up for this one against TCU because they have
- 23:47Speaker 1: a break before they have to play the rest of
- 23:49Speaker 1: these games.
- 23:50Speaker 2: Money is coming in on Florida.
- 23:52Speaker 1: Although they dropped a little bit to a thirteen point favorite,
- 23:55Speaker 1: fifty one percent of the tickets eighty nine percent of
- 23:57Speaker 1: the cash on Florida. I mean, I guess if you
- 24:01Speaker 1: force my hand, I would probably lay it Florida. They're
- 24:04Speaker 1: gonna be trying to just speed up the game and
- 24:07Speaker 1: try to run TCU out of the building pretty much.
- 24:09Speaker 1: Although I don't even know what pace TCU plays at
- 24:12Speaker 1: this year. They're actually a slow tempo team this year,
- 24:15Speaker 1: so that's probably not good for TCU because again, Florida
- 24:19Speaker 1: is the better team and they like to go fast,
- 24:20Speaker 1: so that's gonna be a pacing mismatch for TCU.
- 24:25Speaker 2: There.
- 24:27Speaker 1: They're like all the overs in the NFL games today.
- 24:30Speaker 1: I mean, the night game kind of seems like it
- 24:33Speaker 1: might be an over, but I would have some hesitations
- 24:36Speaker 1: with that.
- 24:39Speaker 2: There are a lot of short weeks.
- 24:41Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean all the teams are on short weeks,
- 24:43Speaker 1: but a lot of times short weeks.
- 24:46Speaker 2: It kind of depends.
- 24:47Speaker 1: Because the divisional games actually tend to be less high
- 24:50Speaker 1: scoring because on the short week, divisional teams know each
- 24:53Speaker 1: other so they know how to prepare. The teams that
- 24:56Speaker 1: don't know each other, like Kansas City and Dallas, that
- 24:59Speaker 1: could actually be more of an over type of game,
- 25:01Speaker 1: although I don't know if I like the over in
- 25:03Speaker 1: that game.
- 25:03Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about that game in a little while.
- 25:08Speaker 2: We have.
- 25:09Speaker 1: Probably the biggest matchup of the day is at four
- 25:11Speaker 1: thirty pm in college basketball, number sixteen, North Carolina, number
- 25:15Speaker 1: eleven Michigan State in Fort Myers.
- 25:18Speaker 2: Florida, in whatever. This is the.
- 25:20Speaker 1: Fort Myers tip off. This is a good game, man,
- 25:23Speaker 1: this is a big game. Both teams have looked pretty
- 25:27Speaker 1: good so far. North Carolina one big win over Kansas.
- 25:31Speaker 1: Kansas got us a win yesterday. I mean, they're not
- 25:33Speaker 1: a bad team Kansas, so that's a decent win for
- 25:36Speaker 1: North Carolina.
- 25:37Speaker 2: That was their only time that they stepped up in class.
- 25:39Speaker 1: Michigan State a bit more battle tested with nice wins
- 25:42Speaker 1: over Arkansas and Kentucky. However, in this game, I kind
- 25:47Speaker 1: of think that the perception, the public perception is going
- 25:51Speaker 1: to be relying on what have we seen recently, what
- 25:54Speaker 1: did we see last year? And last year it was
- 25:56Speaker 1: Michigan State was the better team in Michigan State made
- 25:59Speaker 1: the Elite eight.
- 26:00Speaker 2: Michigan State was a little bit overrated.
- 26:02Speaker 1: Going into the tournament, although they were always battle tests,
- 26:05Speaker 1: because that's what tom Izzo does again, they're getting battle
- 26:08Speaker 1: tested early in the season with some big games here.
- 26:11Speaker 1: I think that perception might kind of be wrong in
- 26:15Speaker 1: this game to some extent. And North Carolina obviously they
- 26:19Speaker 1: made the tournament last year, but everybody was making fun
- 26:22Speaker 1: of them for even making the tournament, and then they
- 26:24Speaker 1: somewhat silence everybody by just annihilating San Diego State in
- 26:28Speaker 1: the play in game. I thought North Carolina was actually
- 26:31Speaker 1: gonna go on a run in the tournament, which they
- 26:33Speaker 1: did not do, although I thought they were.
- 26:35Speaker 2: Capable of it.
- 26:36Speaker 1: They almost came back and beat Ole Miss in the tournament.
- 26:39Speaker 1: But I think the perception is still there. The perception
- 26:41Speaker 1: is that Michigan State is the way better of these
- 26:44Speaker 1: two teams, but I actually think it's close. I think
- 26:47Speaker 1: Michigan State is better, but not by that much. We
- 26:51Speaker 1: have a lot of reverse line movement in this one.
- 26:53Speaker 1: We have Michigan State already down from a two point
- 26:55Speaker 1: favorite to a pick. Them nine the tickets and sixty
- 26:59Speaker 1: four percent of the cash in Michigan State, so they
- 27:01Speaker 1: are the public side with the line moving against them.
- 27:05Speaker 1: I mean, I lean to North Carolina. I agree with
- 27:07Speaker 1: the market in this one. It's gonna be a pacing
- 27:12Speaker 1: mismatch and this or apacing collision. I guess we should
- 27:14Speaker 1: say so whichever team wins out as far as the
- 27:17Speaker 1: tempo battle is probably.
- 27:18Speaker 2: Gonna win the game.
- 27:20Speaker 1: The total has gone up, which is a good sign
- 27:22Speaker 1: for North Carolina because they want to play fast and
- 27:25Speaker 1: Michigan State wants to play slow. Eighty two percent of
- 27:28Speaker 1: the tickets, eighty four percent of the cash, and the
- 27:30Speaker 1: over for what it's worth there, I think in this game,
- 27:32Speaker 1: Michigan State and the under or correlated.
- 27:34Speaker 2: In North Carolina and the over are correlated. So I
- 27:38Speaker 2: lean towards North.
- 27:39Speaker 1: Carolina and the overall though I don't know about a
- 27:41Speaker 1: Pickham price here because I do think Michigan State does
- 27:44Speaker 1: deserve to be a slight favorite against them on a
- 27:46Speaker 1: neutral but I think North Carolina may be able to
- 27:49Speaker 1: get out of that one with that win there.
- 27:52Speaker 2: So that's my opinion on that one. Stacks. What's up? Man?
- 27:58Speaker 1: So do I suggest DraftKings lineups like the daily Fantasy
- 28:03Speaker 1: I have not done that in a long time. I
- 28:05Speaker 1: still am in I do fantasy football like an actual
- 28:07Speaker 1: fantasy football league. Back when DraftKings was literally just fantasy,
- 28:12Speaker 1: I did actually do it. For a while, so, but
- 28:16Speaker 1: I haven't done it for probably a decade now something
- 28:20Speaker 1: like that.
- 28:23Speaker 2: Maybe I should.
- 28:24Speaker 1: I mean, I know it was like a grind, but
- 28:26Speaker 1: if you get it the way that I do it,
- 28:28Speaker 1: I can tell you this. I do like the fifty
- 28:30Speaker 1: to fifties, That's what I would do there, because then
- 28:32Speaker 1: you only have to get up into the top fifty
- 28:35Speaker 1: percent of the people that are in your game, or
- 28:38Speaker 1: do head to head against one.
- 28:40Speaker 2: Person, you know what I mean. But the fifty to
- 28:42Speaker 2: fifty I think.
- 28:42Speaker 1: Is better because if you basically you just have to
- 28:46Speaker 1: know a little bit about what you're doing, and then
- 28:47Speaker 1: you'll be able to make money long term doing it.
- 28:50Speaker 1: Although it's a grind, you just have to come in
- 28:52Speaker 1: the top fifty percent. UNLV and Rutgers are playing in
- 28:56Speaker 1: Las Vegas as well. UNLV sort of the defact to
- 29:00Speaker 1: a home team here obviously because they're in Las Vegas,
- 29:02Speaker 1: so this is not their home arena.
- 29:05Speaker 2: Rutgers is.
- 29:06Speaker 1: Both these teams have not looked very good in the tournament,
- 29:08Speaker 1: although UNLV they just got blown out by Alabama. Although
- 29:13Speaker 1: Alabama's they're still good. I don't think they're as good
- 29:15Speaker 1: as their rankings suggests, but they're good UNLV. I mean,
- 29:18Speaker 1: they're probably gonna want to say face. I would imagine
- 29:21Speaker 1: in the final game in the Las Vegas Tournament here,
- 29:24Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be kind of in an embarrassed
- 29:27Speaker 1: mood here and want to show up Rutgers. I mean,
- 29:30Speaker 1: this is the loser bracket here. Rutgers played more competitively
- 29:33Speaker 1: yesterday against Notre Dame. I think maybe Rutgers just kind
- 29:39Speaker 1: of has run out of steam in this thing. They're
- 29:41Speaker 1: not very good either, so I kind of like UNLV
- 29:44Speaker 1: in that game. I mean, I don't have that strong
- 29:46Speaker 1: of an opinion on UNLV is the favorite. Rutgers is
- 29:50Speaker 1: really not that good for a Big Ten team, and
- 29:53Speaker 1: UNLV gets the chance to beat a power conference team here,
- 29:55Speaker 1: so they might consider that to be somewhat.
- 29:58Speaker 2: Of a big deal.
- 29:59Speaker 1: They're from two and a half to three and a
- 30:01Speaker 1: half unlv is, although part of the reason why they're
- 30:04Speaker 1: favored by that much is because they're in their home city.
- 30:07Speaker 1: Eighty four percent of the tickets, eighty eight percent of
- 30:09Speaker 1: the cash on them. They look like maybe the public side,
- 30:12Speaker 1: although I don't know if the public is really getting
- 30:14Speaker 1: that involved in this game, but yeah, I would lean
- 30:16Speaker 1: towards UNLV in that game. Lane three and a half
- 30:19Speaker 1: isn't as tempting as two and a half, but that
- 30:22Speaker 1: is probably what I would do Washington and Nevada. This
- 30:25Speaker 1: is actually one of my stronger opinions here. This game
- 30:28Speaker 1: is in Palm Springs, which I don't know if that
- 30:31Speaker 1: really is more of a benefit to one team over
- 30:34Speaker 1: the other. I mean, both teams are in the Pacific
- 30:37Speaker 1: time zone, so I don't think it really matters that much.
- 30:39Speaker 1: But I think this is a positive spot for Washington
- 30:42Speaker 1: because they haven't played since they barely escaped against Southern
- 30:47Speaker 1: at home, which was a game I talked about it
- 30:49Speaker 1: because I faded Southern coming off of that game and
- 30:51Speaker 1: I gotta win. I forget who they even played, but
- 30:54Speaker 1: we got to win on the show Fading Southern.
- 30:56Speaker 2: After this, it was with San Jose State. That's right.
- 31:01Speaker 1: Washington were twenty three and a half point favorites in
- 31:03Speaker 1: this game and they had to go to double overtime
- 31:06Speaker 1: to get by Southern in this one. So Washington, they
- 31:08Speaker 1: played a bad game. They just barely escaped, and when
- 31:12Speaker 1: you have a very heavy favorite like that the barely escapes,
- 31:16Speaker 1: they usually refocus and played better in the next game,
- 31:20Speaker 1: so I think you will get a much better effort
- 31:22Speaker 1: from them.
- 31:23Speaker 2: They haven't played in a while, though, that kind of
- 31:24Speaker 2: worries me.
- 31:25Speaker 1: They've actually been off for like a week, and sometimes
- 31:27Speaker 1: that can hurt your momentum.
- 31:28Speaker 2: Though. I think you could consider them to have gone into.
- 31:32Speaker 1: That break on a bad note though, because that was
- 31:34Speaker 1: a bad game against Southern, so I do think they're
- 31:36Speaker 1: gonna be working on fixing things. You can also kind
- 31:38Speaker 1: of explain why they didn't play well because they were
- 31:40Speaker 1: coming off a loss to Baylor, which was a true
- 31:43Speaker 1: road game I guess, which was a close game for Washington,
- 31:46Speaker 1: big game, and then they came back to Washington and
- 31:49Speaker 1: they played their rivalry game against Washington State and beat them.
- 31:53Speaker 1: So I think they just kind of came into this
- 31:55Speaker 1: Southern game flat and overlooked them. So I think you
- 31:59Speaker 1: can kind of explain why that happened. You can explain
- 32:01Speaker 1: the bad performance. My other hesitation though with Washington here
- 32:05Speaker 1: is that they do have UCLA next, which is a
- 32:07Speaker 1: bigger game for them, and then USC after that, so
- 32:09Speaker 1: a couple of former PAC twelve matchups there in Washington.
- 32:13Speaker 1: Those actually are both big ten matchups now as odd
- 32:17Speaker 1: as that sounds, I still hate that, and it is
- 32:21Speaker 1: possible that Nevada does want to step this up for
- 32:23Speaker 1: a game against Washington, so that would be my hesitation here.
- 32:26Speaker 1: Nevada had a nice win to kind of erase that
- 32:30Speaker 1: losing momentum that they had.
- 32:31Speaker 2: They beat you see Santa Barbara. That's a pretty good win.
- 32:33Speaker 1: I mean, you see, Santa Barbara is one of the
- 32:35Speaker 1: better teams in the Big West almost always, So Nevada
- 32:39Speaker 1: got that win. Now they're having a play in California.
- 32:43Speaker 1: Both these teams are down in southern California. I believe
- 32:47Speaker 1: I would probably lay it with Washington, and I considered
- 32:53Speaker 1: adding this to my card, but then I had some
- 32:54Speaker 1: reservations with it, so I'm not doing it. But Washington
- 32:57Speaker 1: is only a five and a half point favorite now
- 32:59Speaker 1: they opened seven and a half. So I don't know
- 33:01Speaker 1: what drove that line down, because it looks like Nevada
- 33:04Speaker 1: is a public underdog here at seventy eight percent of
- 33:07Speaker 1: the tickets and only seventy six percent of the cash.
- 33:09Speaker 1: Don't really know why they would be public against a
- 33:13Speaker 1: power Conference team, you know, with the records not being
- 33:16Speaker 1: that much different between the two teams.
- 33:18Speaker 2: Actually Washington's I think is better.
- 33:20Speaker 1: So I don't really understand why the public looks looks
- 33:22Speaker 1: like they're on Nevada, but I would lay the points
- 33:24Speaker 1: with Washington. We got number nine BYU and Miami in Kassimi, Florida,
- 33:29Speaker 1: so the venue is more beneficial for Miami in this one.
- 33:34Speaker 1: BYU they're coming off two big games. Man, they came
- 33:38Speaker 1: back against Yukon. I believe that game was I believe
- 33:42Speaker 1: in Boston Garden TD, not Boston Guard, and that's along
- 33:46Speaker 1: gone the TD Guarden in Boston. BYU made a huge
- 33:50Speaker 1: comeback in that game and got to within two. Then
- 33:52Speaker 1: they turned around and they still played well and they
- 33:54Speaker 1: beat me on the show. Because I liked Wisconsin with
- 33:57Speaker 1: BYU coming up that huge effort traveling all the way back,
- 34:01Speaker 1: plus it was a tournament revenge spot for Wisconsin, didn't matter.
- 34:06Speaker 2: BYU blew them out.
- 34:07Speaker 1: Now BYU is coming up those big wins and they
- 34:09Speaker 1: gotta go to Florida. Although at least for BYU, they
- 34:13Speaker 1: did play on the East Coast already because they did
- 34:15Speaker 1: play that game in Boston, so this is not the
- 34:17Speaker 1: first time they're traveling to the Eastern time zone.
- 34:19Speaker 2: But still I don't.
- 34:22Speaker 1: Love the spot. Really, it looks like it could be
- 34:23Speaker 1: a bit of a letdown spot for them.
- 34:25Speaker 2: Miami.
- 34:26Speaker 1: I know they're five and one, but they're pretty untested.
- 34:29Speaker 1: Their only test really was against Florida and they lost,
- 34:32Speaker 1: although they weren't horrible in the game. I would lean
- 34:36Speaker 1: to Miami in this one. You're gonna get them as
- 34:37Speaker 1: a fairly big underdog. I would imagine byus up to
- 34:41Speaker 1: a nine point favorite, fifty two percent of the tickets
- 34:44Speaker 1: and ninety eight percent of the cash on Miami. I
- 34:46Speaker 1: agree with taking the points with Miami and that one.
- 34:48Speaker 1: That's what I would do in that game. Next up
- 34:51Speaker 1: is my best bet, my only one in college.
- 34:55Speaker 2: So let's get to it.
- 34:57Speaker 1: And this line is already on the move, man. It's
- 35:00Speaker 1: it's getting close to a key number. South Florida minus
- 35:04Speaker 1: six is the play. We're gonna lay it with South Florida.
- 35:07Speaker 1: But the line is already moving up, so there is
- 35:09Speaker 1: agreement with me here. It might be the line movement
- 35:13Speaker 1: might be slowed down by the fact that Western Kentucky
- 35:16Speaker 1: looks like they're getting the public ticket percentage here eighty
- 35:19Speaker 1: two percent of the tickets and only seventy percent of
- 35:21Speaker 1: the cash on them. The line has already moved up
- 35:24Speaker 1: to seven. I would lay seven or less with South Florida.
- 35:28Speaker 1: Seven is the key number in college basketball in basketball
- 35:31Speaker 1: because teams stop intentionally fouling there or usually but at
- 35:35Speaker 1: first as we saw, sometimes they file down six and
- 35:37Speaker 1: then they go down eight. But yeah, I would probably
- 35:40Speaker 1: still do it at seven. We're gonna lay South Florida here.
- 35:44Speaker 1: This is mostly about fading Western Kentucky. This is out
- 35:46Speaker 1: in the Bahamas, which I guess you could argue that
- 35:50Speaker 1: venue is better for South Florida because they're closer to
- 35:53Speaker 1: the Bahamas. But Western Kentucky they just took their first
- 35:57Speaker 1: loss of the season. But not only that, it's the
- 35:59Speaker 1: game that our already already talked about. Man, they really
- 36:02Speaker 1: stepped up their game and tried to beat an SEC
- 36:04Speaker 1: team here Vandy. Andy's Vandy eighteen and a half point
- 36:09Speaker 1: underdogs in this game, and they got to within three
- 36:11Speaker 1: late in the game. Huge comeback for Western Kentucky in
- 36:15Speaker 1: that game, almost were able to pull it out. Now
- 36:18Speaker 1: after that they fell short, took their first loss.
- 36:21Speaker 2: Of the season.
- 36:23Speaker 1: Both of those things can hang you over into the
- 36:25Speaker 1: next game, man, like ending your undefeated streak. And having
- 36:29Speaker 1: a huge game like that where you almost pulled off
- 36:31Speaker 1: the upset that turns into a major flat spot in
- 36:34Speaker 1: the next game. That is my opinion here, so I
- 36:39Speaker 1: think they're gonna be flat coming into this one.
- 36:41Speaker 2: Western Kentucky.
- 36:42Speaker 1: Also, I know that they have a decent name, like
- 36:45Speaker 1: a college basketball from years past. They're not a horrible team,
- 36:48Speaker 1: but they've been really, really unbattle tested. I know they
- 36:51Speaker 1: look pretty good against Vandy, but the rest of their
- 36:54Speaker 1: schedules and very easy. I think they did step up
- 36:57Speaker 1: their a game for that one game, and the public's
- 36:59Speaker 1: gona like them because they're four and one, But obviously
- 37:02Speaker 1: they're not the better teams as South Florida's favored. Even
- 37:05Speaker 1: though South Florida's three and three South Florida, they have
- 37:08Speaker 1: faced the more difficult schedule. They lost to George Washington
- 37:11Speaker 1: early on. George Washington is probably gonna be in the
- 37:14Speaker 1: mix in in the top part of the Atlantic ten there.
- 37:19Speaker 1: South Florida beat Kennisa on the road. That's a decent win,
- 37:21Speaker 1: and then they took losses to Oklahoma State, who is
- 37:24Speaker 1: still a power conference team. Even though they've been down,
- 37:27Speaker 1: they actually have They're off to a pretty good start
- 37:29Speaker 1: this year Oklahoma State, so.
- 37:30Speaker 2: They might not be that bad. And then.
- 37:34Speaker 1: And I didn't like the spot for South Florida in
- 37:36Speaker 1: that game either, by the way. And then South Florida
- 37:38Speaker 1: lost in this tournament to VCU, but I did point
- 37:41Speaker 1: that out that was kind of an ugly performance from
- 37:44Speaker 1: them where they really didn't shoot well. Although I don't
- 37:46Speaker 1: know if South Florida is necessarily known for shooting that well,
- 37:48Speaker 1: but this is gonna be a big step down in
- 37:51Speaker 1: class for South Florida. Man after that loss to VCU,
- 37:54Speaker 1: South Florida should shoot better in this game. Western Kentucky
- 37:58Speaker 1: is significantly worse than VCA Ken Bomas VCU like somewhere
- 38:03Speaker 1: around like forty fifth in the country. Western Kentucky is
- 38:06Speaker 1: like outside the top one hundred, probably by about twenty
- 38:09Speaker 1: ranking spots. So the spot looks good. The misperception based
- 38:14Speaker 1: on the records looks good to me. Yeah, we're gonna
- 38:16Speaker 1: go South Florida minus the points. That is my only
- 38:19Speaker 1: college basketball play.
- 38:23Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 38:23Speaker 1: This is why again, this is why I want every
- 38:27Speaker 1: book to be available to me, because if you only
- 38:30Speaker 1: have one book, like, you're gonna potentially get screwed, especially
- 38:33Speaker 1: when it's like fan Duel seven and a half. That's
- 38:36Speaker 1: that is bullshit, And they're giving it to you at
- 38:39Speaker 1: like lower juice, like because they don't want to offer
- 38:42Speaker 1: the seven. I don't know if they have, like kid,
- 38:44Speaker 1: will they let you like buy back onto the seven.
- 38:47Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't even do that though in basketball, I
- 38:50Speaker 1: mean the seven is a lot more key in football.
- 38:54Speaker 1: That's still total bs though, Like, I don't know, I could.
- 38:57Speaker 1: I could look at the Massachusetts books right now. You
- 39:00Speaker 1: what the number looks like here. I'm almost positive there
- 39:04Speaker 1: are gonna be seven's out there. Yeah, there's a straight
- 39:07Speaker 1: seven at Caesar's. Bally has a six.
- 39:11Speaker 2: And a half minus one twelve in Massachusetts.
- 39:14Speaker 1: They lagged behind. Man, that's a good number there. Yeah,
- 39:19Speaker 1: I mean, I unfortunately the num these dude, I talk
- 39:22Speaker 1: about it all the time. These college basketball lines move
- 39:24Speaker 1: so fast. This number was at six when I looked
- 39:27Speaker 1: at it, like right before I started the show. And
- 39:30Speaker 1: we do have a seven at well BET's bet three
- 39:33Speaker 1: sixty five. I don't think they exist in Massachusetts. I
- 39:36Speaker 1: don't know, fan Duel is giving us a similar number
- 39:38Speaker 1: to yours. They're screwing us better juice on it, though,
- 39:42Speaker 1: But yeah, Caesar's and Bally are giving us good numbers. Again,
- 39:44Speaker 1: it's the the advantage of being able to line shop there, man,
- 39:50Speaker 1: uh in San Diego, at this Jenny Craig weight loss whatever,
- 39:54Speaker 1: Wisconsin in Providence or actually, yeah, I forget what it
- 39:58Speaker 1: is already.
- 39:59Speaker 2: It's oh, it's eighty Children's.
- 40:00Speaker 1: Well, you know, having cancer is a weight loss program
- 40:03Speaker 1: as well, So all right, chemo chemo is weight loss therapy. Man,
- 40:10Speaker 1: I'm sorry, don't nuke my channel. Wisconsin, they're coming off
- 40:15Speaker 1: that tough game against BYU Mental that they did get
- 40:18Speaker 1: kind of blown out in the game.
- 40:19Speaker 2: But it was their first loss of the season.
- 40:22Speaker 1: Sometimes that will hang you over a little bit coming
- 40:23Speaker 1: into the next game. I don't know that this venue
- 40:27Speaker 1: is really good for either team because I don't think
- 40:29Speaker 1: either Wisconsin or Providence has played in the Pacific time
- 40:33Speaker 1: zone yet. Both teams have gone out into Mountain time
- 40:35Speaker 1: already and did not farewell. Providence is of a nice
- 40:39Speaker 1: win of Penn State, though that was a nice win.
- 40:41Speaker 1: It was their first Power Conference win, so maybe Providence,
- 40:46Speaker 1: you could argue, was in maybe a little bit of
- 40:47Speaker 1: a letdown spot after that, although I think they'll still show.
- 40:50Speaker 2: Up for a game against Wisconsin.
- 40:52Speaker 1: I expect both teams to show up, but that being
- 40:55Speaker 1: the case, Wisconsin is the better team.
- 40:57Speaker 2: So that is probably the way that I would lean
- 40:59Speaker 2: the up from four.
- 41:00Speaker 1: We're gonna half to six and a half, eighty five
- 41:02Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash, and
- 41:04Speaker 1: then the money does look like it's heavy on Wisconsin.
- 41:07Speaker 1: But if you do like them, you're you've lost a
- 41:09Speaker 1: little bit of a value on the line there with
- 41:11Speaker 1: Wisconsin again, college basketball lines moving like crazy, Brad, what's
- 41:16Speaker 1: up man?
- 41:17Speaker 2: Oh that's all right? Oh Wolves on the money line? Yeah?
- 41:22Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, you're right. Playoff revenge is definitely a thing.
- 41:25Speaker 1: You were correct about that. Uh I forgot about that.
- 41:28Speaker 2: That was one thing I did not even mention in
- 41:30Speaker 2: my Uh wait was it playoff revenge? Now? I'm trying to.
- 41:34Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess it was because Minnesota knocked out of
- 41:37Speaker 1: the Lakers, right, so then okay, see beat Okay, see,
- 41:40Speaker 1: I guess they beat Minnesota in the conference final. I guess, right,
- 41:43Speaker 1: so that is pretty big playoff revenge. Then I guess yeah,
- 41:47Speaker 1: was it them or was it the Warriors? I don't
- 41:48Speaker 1: remember now, but yeah, I think you are right.
- 41:52Speaker 2: I believe.
- 41:52Speaker 1: Hold on, I'm gonna I'm gonna look right now because
- 41:55Speaker 1: I dude, I forget. Although I think did Houston get
- 41:59Speaker 1: their play have revenge last night? Because that was my
- 42:01Speaker 1: opinion in that game, was Houston to get playoff revenge
- 42:04Speaker 1: against Golden State. I'm looking at Minnesota right now in
- 42:08Speaker 1: the postseason last year just to remind myself.
- 42:13Speaker 2: Yeah, it was the conference finals. So they they beat
- 42:15Speaker 2: Golden State and then they.
- 42:17Speaker 1: Lost to okay See. So yeah, that is correct. Yeah,
- 42:19Speaker 1: conference finals. You're right, that's that's a bigger form of revenge.
- 42:22Speaker 1: So I I totally overlooked that part of the handicap,
- 42:27Speaker 1: although I still would not have been on Minnesota, you know,
- 42:31Speaker 1: just for my own purposes, I would not have done it,
- 42:34Speaker 1: but they did cover. But you needed them on the
- 42:37Speaker 1: money line. If you were gonna be on Minnesota, I
- 42:39Speaker 1: would have. I would have taken the points and then
- 42:41Speaker 1: put a little bit of the like put ten of
- 42:43Speaker 1: the bet on the money line.
- 42:44Speaker 2: That's usually what I do.
- 42:47Speaker 1: But I mean that that is a tall order asking
- 42:50Speaker 1: them to win at at okay See when okay See
- 42:54Speaker 1: is just dominant at home and Minnesota still has not
- 42:57Speaker 1: beaten a team with a winning record this entire season.
- 43:03Speaker 1: All right, we have Santa Clara Saint Louis out in
- 43:05Speaker 1: Palm Springs as well. This venue definitely is better for
- 43:08Speaker 1: Santa Clara because they're in California, so they get to
- 43:11Speaker 1: play in their own time zone.
- 43:12Speaker 2: At the very least, they're a good team, man.
- 43:15Speaker 1: I mean, they might maybe make some noise in the
- 43:17Speaker 1: Western West Coast Conference, even though I know it's always
- 43:21Speaker 1: Gonzaga Saint Mary's.
- 43:22Speaker 2: Still those are the two teams to beat.
- 43:24Speaker 1: But Santa Clara and San Francisco might make some things
- 43:26Speaker 1: interesting out there.
- 43:28Speaker 2: And Grand No Grand Canyons in the Mountain West. What
- 43:30Speaker 2: am I saying?
- 43:31Speaker 1: But yeah, those two teams are not bad. Saint Louis
- 43:34Speaker 1: Is also not bad with Kareem Abdul Jabbar Robbie Avila
- 43:38Speaker 1: still there. Santa Clara is off to a nice start.
- 43:42Speaker 1: They're undefeated. They got some wins over a Xavier and
- 43:45Speaker 1: Nevad although both those teams look like they're down this year,
- 43:48Speaker 1: but they blew out Xavier in a true road game,
- 43:51Speaker 1: so that is that's still pretty good to do that
- 43:54Speaker 1: to a.
- 43:54Speaker 2: Big East team. So Santa Clara, they're not bad.
- 43:58Speaker 1: They're coming off annihilating Luisi, but whatever, Saint Louis has
- 44:02Speaker 1: also looked pretty good.
- 44:03Speaker 2: They're also undefeated.
- 44:04Speaker 1: Their best win is at home, I believe, over Grand Canyon,
- 44:08Speaker 1: so Santa Clara is a little bit more battle tested.
- 44:11Speaker 1: Saint Louis is having to, I believe, leave home for
- 44:14Speaker 1: the first time.
- 44:15Speaker 2: I don't know that.
- 44:15Speaker 1: Maybe they've played in a neutral site game, but I
- 44:18Speaker 1: don't believe they're played on the Pacific Coast yet at all,
- 44:21Speaker 1: so I think this will be difficult for Saint Louis
- 44:24Speaker 1: to have to do that. I like Santa Clara in
- 44:26Speaker 1: this one. Although the money seems to start it seems
- 44:29Speaker 1: to have started disagreeing with that. Saint Louis dropped from
- 44:31Speaker 1: a three and a half boay favorite to a one
- 44:33Speaker 1: and a half way favorite, but now eighty one percent
- 44:35Speaker 1: of the tickets and only seventy one percent of the
- 44:37Speaker 1: cash on Santa Clara. It's making Saint Louis look like
- 44:40Speaker 1: an anti public favorite, which I like anti public favorites,
- 44:44Speaker 1: which I gave you.
- 44:45Speaker 2: One as my best bet here, But in this one,
- 44:48Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't really see it.
- 44:50Speaker 1: I lean to Santa Clara in that game, getting some
- 44:54Speaker 1: amount of points at least there ESPN two. In the
- 44:58Speaker 1: Terry's Chocolate and cassime, we have Georgetown and Dayton playing
- 45:01Speaker 1: each other on the night slate here. Georgetown off to
- 45:05Speaker 1: a nice undefeated start. They got a couple of good wins.
- 45:08Speaker 1: They beat Maryland on the road and that was Maryland
- 45:10Speaker 1: before their best player went down, and they beat Clemson
- 45:13Speaker 1: at home. Those are decent wins for Georgetown. Although those
- 45:16Speaker 1: teams are probably down from where they were last year.
- 45:19Speaker 1: Dayton is also probably a little bit down from what
- 45:21Speaker 1: we've seen out of the last couple of seasons from them.
- 45:23Speaker 1: Dayton's been al right this year too, though, I mean
- 45:25Speaker 1: they had a loss at Cincinnati that wasn't I mean,
- 45:29Speaker 1: it's not an embarrassing.
- 45:30Speaker 2: Loss, like they lost by twelve.
- 45:32Speaker 1: They played alright in the game, and they did beat
- 45:34Speaker 1: Marquette on the road, which is their big their big
- 45:38Speaker 1: win against a decent Big East team. Now they get
- 45:41Speaker 1: to face another Big East team here. But Georgetown, I
- 45:44Speaker 1: believe is actually the better team right now. They are
- 45:48Speaker 1: the team that's in the better conference. Although I know
- 45:50Speaker 1: conference play hasn't started yet, Georgetown seems to be slowly
- 45:54Speaker 1: turning this thing around, man, and they're slowly getting better.
- 45:57Speaker 2: They flipped from a one point dodge to a one point.
- 45:59Speaker 1: FAI although we see fifty eight percent of tickets ninety
- 46:02Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on date, and I don't
- 46:04Speaker 1: know if I buy that cash percentage, but I would
- 46:06Speaker 1: probably lean toward Georgetown in that game. I just I
- 46:09Speaker 1: think they're the slightly better team. And I think that's
- 46:12Speaker 1: the way to handicap a game like that where there
- 46:14Speaker 1: isn't really a situation to fall back on, which usually
- 46:18Speaker 1: those are not games We're gonna play the number. It's
- 46:21Speaker 1: the numbers are actually the way to look in games
- 46:23Speaker 1: like that. So like when you have when the situation
- 46:26Speaker 1: seems pretty much even on both sides, then I think
- 46:29Speaker 1: the numbers are the way that you want to look.
- 46:31Speaker 1: But like that's always kind of the battle, like between
- 46:33Speaker 1: the handicappers.
- 46:34Speaker 2: You got like numbers.
- 46:35Speaker 1: Guys will say one thing and then I'm on the
- 46:37Speaker 1: situational side and we say another thing, and I want
- 46:40Speaker 1: both things to line up ideally, but I'll just throw
- 46:43Speaker 1: out like kind of what the numbers say and just
- 46:45Speaker 1: kind of rely on the odds makers like kind of
- 46:48Speaker 1: knowing what they're doing and being close and just not
- 46:50Speaker 1: quite accounting for the situation. So I think the situation
- 46:55Speaker 1: is better to look at because it's just not as
- 46:57Speaker 1: you can't really quantify it. So if the odds makers
- 47:00Speaker 1: are really just having to rely on mostly just numbers,
- 47:04Speaker 1: then you know, if the number isn't off, then then
- 47:06Speaker 1: what do you really have left? Well, you have the situation,
- 47:09Speaker 1: and that the situation. If it's heavily on one side,
- 47:12Speaker 1: that does mean that the then you know, the numbers
- 47:14Speaker 1: should move a little bit in the other directions. Sometimes
- 47:16Speaker 1: the odds makers will skew it in that direction, knowing
- 47:19Speaker 1: some of those situational angles, but still I don't think
- 47:22Speaker 1: it gets accounted for enough.
- 47:23Speaker 2: So that's what I do.
- 47:26Speaker 1: And yeah, like the numbers, numbers are good like to
- 47:29Speaker 1: you know, to give you the overall like perspective here
- 47:32Speaker 1: like where is this number? How far off is it whatever?
- 47:35Speaker 1: But it's not like the only thing and situation matters
- 47:40Speaker 1: because human behavior is a thing. These are humans here,
- 47:43Speaker 1: they're not robots. So if there were robots then then
- 47:46Speaker 1: the numbers would make sense. You just relying on the numbers.
- 47:51Speaker 2: But because they're human, then that's how you get you know, that's.
- 47:54Speaker 1: How upsets happen and stuff like that that's why we watch sports,
- 47:58Speaker 1: all right, And then we do have a big game
- 47:59Speaker 1: on CBS in the United Center in Chicago, the Bulls
- 48:03Speaker 1: Arena here I think also where the Blackhawks play number
- 48:07Speaker 1: four Duke number twenty two Arkansas playing in this one.
- 48:10Speaker 2: It's a good matchup. Although I think Duke is.
- 48:14Speaker 1: Legitimately a top five team and Arkansas, I think is
- 48:17Speaker 1: actually not a top twenty five team right now. So
- 48:21Speaker 1: I do think the rankings makers have have this a
- 48:23Speaker 1: little bit off.
- 48:24Speaker 2: I don't think Arkansas is quite as good as that.
- 48:26Speaker 2: Duke is a pretty.
- 48:27Speaker 1: Big favorite Othery a ten and a half point favored,
- 48:30Speaker 1: although it looks like they are public, although.
- 48:31Speaker 2: That does make sense Duke.
- 48:33Speaker 1: You know, people at home tonight, they're gonna want something
- 48:36Speaker 1: to bet on. There is NFL in college football, but
- 48:39Speaker 1: if they're gonna bet on a basketball game tonight, it's
- 48:42Speaker 1: most likely gonna be this game. Though, so it is
- 48:44Speaker 1: the type of game where you do kind of want
- 48:46Speaker 1: to fade the public more often than not. Seventy one
- 48:49Speaker 1: percent of tickets on Duke sixty percent of the cash
- 48:52Speaker 1: on them, so they are public with less of the
- 48:54Speaker 1: money on them. Fading the public makes sense in games
- 48:56Speaker 1: like this because the oddsmakers know the public's gonna come
- 48:59Speaker 1: in on this and they want to try to split
- 49:01Speaker 1: the action, so they know they have to skew the
- 49:03Speaker 1: line more towards the public favorite there the public side,
- 49:07Speaker 1: So you're not really getting any line value on Duke,
- 49:09Speaker 1: even though I think they're the better team. So I
- 49:11Speaker 1: don't really want to fade them here. But Arkansas, the
- 49:15Speaker 1: one time they step up in class, they lost to
- 49:18Speaker 1: Michigan State. Orough it was a close game, so not
- 49:21Speaker 1: really there's not really shame and losing by three to
- 49:23Speaker 1: Michigan State. Duke is kind of a similar team, and
- 49:26Speaker 1: that they slow the pace down. Although Arkansas is gonna
- 49:30Speaker 1: want to go faster than Duke. Duke hasn't been as
- 49:33Speaker 1: slow this year as they were last year, but there's
- 49:36Speaker 1: still a lot slower tempo than Arkansas is, so they're
- 49:38Speaker 1: gonna want to slow it down and that might throw
- 49:40Speaker 1: Arkansas out of their preferred style, kind of like Michigan
- 49:45Speaker 1: State did, even though that game was close. So that's
- 49:49Speaker 1: another kind of knock against Arkansas on this one. Another
- 49:51Speaker 1: reason why I kind of don't want to do it
- 49:54Speaker 1: at Duke. I mean, Duke is an exactly totally battle
- 49:57Speaker 1: tested either.
- 49:58Speaker 2: They do have two pretty good wins against Texas and Kansas.
- 50:02Speaker 1: Kansas is probably better than Arkansas right now though, so
- 50:06Speaker 1: they have beaten the team better than Arkansas.
- 50:08Speaker 2: At least.
- 50:09Speaker 1: Duke does have to face Florida after this, but I'm
- 50:11Speaker 1: not really sure they're gonna overlook a big ranked matchup
- 50:14Speaker 1: like this though, going up against John Calipari.
- 50:17Speaker 2: So we have the matchup of the Johns the Johns.
- 50:21Speaker 1: As far as the coaches are concerned, shy or versus
- 50:25Speaker 1: Cali PERI there.
- 50:28Speaker 2: Pumpkin pie jewel pods? Do they not do that? Are
- 50:32Speaker 2: those those are like vapes? Right? I don't know.
- 50:34Speaker 1: I'm not a I'm not a vape guy in the Bahamas.
- 50:40Speaker 1: You do of Colorado State and Wichita. Colorado State coming
- 50:44Speaker 1: off of a loss to Virginia Tech. I mean, that
- 50:45Speaker 1: was a big game I think for Colorado State trying
- 50:48Speaker 1: to step it up against an acc team, and I
- 50:50Speaker 1: thought they would bounce back potentially from that game against
- 50:53Speaker 1: Denver where that was an ugly loss to an in
- 50:56Speaker 1: state little brother in Denver. Colorado State did cover though,
- 50:59Speaker 1: so that that was my opinion was that Colorado State
- 51:01Speaker 1: would cover the number against Virginia Tech. So I was
- 51:04Speaker 1: right about that, although I did not give that out
- 51:06Speaker 1: as a play. So they are coming off that that
- 51:09Speaker 1: was a big game for them. They do have Colorado next,
- 51:12Speaker 1: so though it's not until December sixth, that's gonna be
- 51:15Speaker 1: a big game for them too.
- 51:16Speaker 2: The big rivalry between the two teams there.
- 51:19Speaker 1: It's possible maybe Colorado State starts packing it in here.
- 51:22Speaker 1: I don't know how much attention they're gonna give to Wichita.
- 51:25Speaker 1: Wichita though they're coming off a close game against Saint
- 51:27Speaker 1: Mary's and Saint Mary's they'll slow you down and kind
- 51:30Speaker 1: of punish you, so.
- 51:32Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 51:33Speaker 1: Man Wichita coming off that close call playing well as
- 51:36Speaker 1: a big underdog. I don't love them in this spot either,
- 51:39Speaker 1: So both both teams are kind of in a negative
- 51:42Speaker 1: position in this one. Colorado State has dropped from one
- 51:45Speaker 1: and a half to one, sixty seven percent of tickets
- 51:48Speaker 1: on them eighty six percent of the cash on the
- 51:49Speaker 1: Wichita side, So the cash coming in on Wichita, I'll
- 51:53Speaker 1: agree with it.
- 51:54Speaker 2: I think maybe Wichita will step it up to.
- 51:56Speaker 1: Face a Mountain West team because I think they consider
- 51:59Speaker 1: the Mountain West to be bigger conference than the American,
- 52:02Speaker 1: which is where they are, and the American's been awful recently.
- 52:05Speaker 2: So yeah, those are my thoughts on that.
- 52:08Speaker 1: And then we have Stanford and Minnesota playing in Palm Springs,
- 52:11Speaker 1: so I think the location is more helpful to Stanford
- 52:14Speaker 1: because they get to at least play in the Pacific
- 52:16Speaker 1: time zone.
- 52:17Speaker 2: Stanford's coming up.
- 52:18Speaker 1: An ugly loss to Seattle. Stanford, we're ten and a
- 52:22Speaker 1: half point favorites in this one. I think they were
- 52:23Speaker 1: at home too, so that's really ugly. Yeah, that was
- 52:26Speaker 1: in their home arena too. That was a pretty ugly loss.
- 52:29Speaker 1: So though Seattle's not a horrible team out in the
- 52:32Speaker 1: whack there, but bad game for them. So I could
- 52:36Speaker 1: see it going two ways though, because now Stanford's have
- 52:39Speaker 1: an ugly loss. So sometimes you will bounce back from that.
- 52:42Speaker 1: But that first loss of the season. Man, again, like
- 52:44Speaker 1: I say, sometimes that will hang you over.
- 52:46Speaker 2: Although I do think they'll show up.
- 52:48Speaker 1: For a game against a Big ten team like Minnesota. Minnesota,
- 52:52Speaker 1: I mean they have not stepped up well in class.
- 52:54Speaker 1: I mean they had a road game where they lost
- 52:56Speaker 1: at Missouri. They played really poorly act against Green Bay
- 53:01Speaker 1: and Chicago State, so teams they should have probably easily beaten,
- 53:07Speaker 1: and they did not. You can kind of give them
- 53:08Speaker 1: a pass for the green Bay game because they were
- 53:10Speaker 1: coming off that big Missouri game. But after that game,
- 53:13Speaker 1: how do you have another bad gaming at Chicago State,
- 53:16Speaker 1: very very bad team, worse than Green Bay significantly, I think.
- 53:20Speaker 1: And then Minnesota lost by twelve to San Francisco up
- 53:24Speaker 1: in South Dakota, so it was a it was a
- 53:26Speaker 1: venue closer to Minnesota, and they took that loss too.
- 53:30Speaker 1: So that's like four pretty bad performances in a row
- 53:33Speaker 1: from Minnesota.
- 53:35Speaker 2: They're not that good. It doesn't look like man.
- 53:37Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, looking at this game, I would
- 53:41Speaker 1: I would lean towards Stanford here. Stanford is already up
- 53:44Speaker 1: to a two and a half point favorite from a
- 53:45Speaker 1: pick them, eight to nine percent of the cash on them,
- 53:48Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the tickets around Minnesota. Yeah, I mean,
- 53:52Speaker 1: I think it's a bounce back spot for Stanford after
- 53:54Speaker 1: that that ugly loss.
- 53:56Speaker 2: That's the way I would lean in that one.
- 53:57Speaker 1: I just have a few concerns about it, but yeah,
- 54:00Speaker 1: I think Stanford is the right call in that game.
- 54:03Speaker 1: I agree with the money in that one. The Beatles
- 54:08Speaker 1: anthology for No.
- 54:09Speaker 2: What's on it? Is there any like unreleased stuff on it?
- 54:13Speaker 1: I'll talk well, actually, I don't even know if I
- 54:15Speaker 1: should talk to my dad about it, although he might
- 54:17Speaker 1: watch this show sometimes too, but I don't know. I mean,
- 54:21Speaker 1: you have mentioned that before, and it did give me
- 54:24Speaker 1: a thought. Although if we're saying that that's online, if
- 54:28Speaker 1: it's on like Spotify or something, he may have already
- 54:30Speaker 1: checked it out. But I have an idea for something,
- 54:36Speaker 1: all right. And then we have Oklahoma State and Northwestern
- 54:40Speaker 1: playing in the United Center in Chicago late night. Northwestern
- 54:44Speaker 1: is sort of a semi home team there because they're
- 54:46Speaker 1: Chicago area school. Oklahoma State they might be on the
- 54:49Speaker 1: way back up a little bit. Man, they're maybe under
- 54:51Speaker 1: the radar right now. They have a win over Texas
- 54:53Speaker 1: A and M, which is pretty solid, although A and
- 54:56Speaker 1: M looks like they're a bit down this year.
- 54:57Speaker 2: But A and M did win.
- 54:58Speaker 1: For US is a big favorite. The other day they
- 55:00Speaker 1: covered for US Oklahoma State. They have a win over
- 55:03Speaker 1: South Florida too, which is not bad. But now now
- 55:06Speaker 1: they gotta go on the road here.
- 55:07Speaker 2: This is not a.
- 55:08Speaker 1: True road game, but it's a semi road game. This
- 55:11Speaker 1: is the CBS Thanksgiving Classic. Northwestern coming off a run
- 55:16Speaker 1: of big games where they played They beat to Paul,
- 55:19Speaker 1: big East team, although not a very good one. Then
- 55:22Speaker 1: they came close against Virginia and then beat South Carolina.
- 55:26Speaker 1: So they played three hour conference teams in a row.
- 55:29Speaker 1: Maybe they'll have run out of steam a little bit here.
- 55:31Speaker 1: South Carolina is not very good in the SEC, though
- 55:35Speaker 1: they may be bottom complete bottom of the SEC, but
- 55:39Speaker 1: still a decent win, nonetheless over an SEC team. Now
- 55:42Speaker 1: they get Oklahoma State on Thanksgiving. I think they will
- 55:46Speaker 1: show up, even though they do of Wisconsin and Ohio
- 55:48Speaker 1: State looming on the horizon.
- 55:50Speaker 2: Those are big conference games there. But I mean you
- 55:55Speaker 2: could argue it's a look ahead Yeah.
- 55:59Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what else I have to
- 56:00Speaker 1: say about that game. I kind of expect both teams
- 56:02Speaker 1: to show up, But the money seems to be indicated
- 56:05Speaker 1: on Oklahoma State, maybe because of that look ahead component
- 56:09Speaker 1: for Northwestern.
- 56:10Speaker 2: They're up to a.
- 56:11Speaker 1: Two and a half point favorite here from one and
- 56:14Speaker 1: a half eighty percent of the tickets on Northwestern fifty
- 56:16Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash though on Oklahoma State. So
- 56:20Speaker 1: the money is saying Oklahoma State, I'm not going to
- 56:23Speaker 1: really disagree with that.
- 56:25Speaker 2: All right, let's go to We'll go to football.
- 56:30Speaker 1: Well football is the only thing left, but we'll go
- 56:32Speaker 1: to college football where we have ESPN at seven thirty pm.
- 56:36Speaker 1: One college football game, so the public might get involved
- 56:40Speaker 1: in this one. It's Navy and Memphis. It's an interesting matchup, man,
- 56:44Speaker 1: it is. I have an opinion on this game. It
- 56:45Speaker 1: has not made my card. This is a battle in
- 56:50Speaker 1: the whatever it is, the American Conference here now. Memphis,
- 56:56Speaker 1: they've fallen short of their goals. So they're a disappointed team, man,
- 56:59Speaker 1: because they were two weeks ago, basically they were a
- 57:02Speaker 1: one loss team and they were looking like they could
- 57:05Speaker 1: they had a chance to get into the American Championship
- 57:08Speaker 1: game and potentially get into the playoff maybe, although that
- 57:11Speaker 1: lost to UAB was gonna be pretty damning though that
- 57:15Speaker 1: was a fire coach spot. I think for UAB I
- 57:18Speaker 1: should have given it out as a play given that.
- 57:20Speaker 1: But Memphis, they were huge favorites in that game, over
- 57:23Speaker 1: twenty point favorites in that game, and they lost. They
- 57:26Speaker 1: bounced back nicely with a big win over USF but
- 57:29Speaker 1: then after beating Rice, they've fallen apart. Man, they took
- 57:32Speaker 1: a loss to Tulane, and then that I think was
- 57:35Speaker 1: the game that set up the dream crusher from Memphis.
- 57:37Speaker 1: And then after that, I think they were kind of
- 57:39Speaker 1: a dead team and they had to go on the
- 57:41Speaker 1: road to East Carolina and they took that loss too.
- 57:44Speaker 1: So now Memphis, they're already in a bowl obviously because
- 57:47Speaker 1: they have eight wins, but they wanted to get to
- 57:51Speaker 1: the American Championship. They can't do that now, so their
- 57:54Speaker 1: season is over. But will they show up for this game?
- 57:59Speaker 1: I think they might because that was an embarrassing loss
- 58:02Speaker 1: to East Carolina. But now they have an isolated Thanksgiving
- 58:06Speaker 1: primetime game that they're hosting on ESPN and they have
- 58:09Speaker 1: the chance to knock Navy out of the conference championship.
- 58:13Speaker 1: So maybe that's enough to motivate Memphis here in this
- 58:17Speaker 1: final game. I think it might be, so I kind
- 58:21Speaker 1: of lean towards Memphis in the one. In this one,
- 58:23Speaker 1: I think they might show up. Now, Memphis does have
- 58:26Speaker 1: to prepare for the triple option, but they did face
- 58:28Speaker 1: one when they faced Rice. Although Rice is not a
- 58:31Speaker 1: good example of one. Rice has started to do it
- 58:33Speaker 1: this year. Memphis is not faced Army this year, who
- 58:37Speaker 1: is better at it?
- 58:38Speaker 2: Than Rice.
- 58:39Speaker 1: Navy is probably the best out of all of them,
- 58:41Speaker 1: so there is that, But Memphis does have extra time off.
- 58:45Speaker 1: Both these teams haven't played since Saturday, November fifteenth, so
- 58:48Speaker 1: it's like basically coming out of a bye here. So
- 58:52Speaker 1: Memphis they went into the buy on that bad note
- 58:54Speaker 1: of losing two games in a row.
- 58:56Speaker 2: Man, So that's a positive.
- 58:59Speaker 1: Like I say, when you go into the the extra
- 59:01Speaker 1: rest on a losing note, a lot of times you'll
- 59:03Speaker 1: use that extra rest to fix things, and in this case,
- 59:06Speaker 1: they can use it to prepare for the triple option
- 59:09Speaker 1: for Navy here. Now for Navy, they got to win,
- 59:14Speaker 1: So I do worry about this a little bit because Navy,
- 59:17Speaker 1: I would worry about laying the points with Memphis because
- 59:20Speaker 1: when you have a team that like they need to
- 59:23Speaker 1: win to get into the championship game, but they're also
- 59:26Speaker 1: an underdog, that's kind of a little bit different because
- 59:29Speaker 1: a lot of times these teams that like need to win,
- 59:31Speaker 1: they'll be favored, so you're like really getting value in
- 59:34Speaker 1: fading them, and I think you still might be getting
- 59:36Speaker 1: value fading Memphis, excuse me fading Navy here. But Navy
- 59:40Speaker 1: is an underdog though when you get a team that's
- 59:42Speaker 1: gonna be motivated like Navy as an underdog.
- 59:45Speaker 2: I don't know that I can quite do it.
- 59:47Speaker 1: But Navy, they went into their break, they've had the
- 59:50Speaker 1: same amount of time off. They went into their break
- 59:52Speaker 1: on the best note possible.
- 59:54Speaker 2: Man.
- 59:54Speaker 1: They beat South Florida as big time underdogs in that game.
- 59:58Speaker 1: That was a huge win for Navy. They're staying alive
- 1:00:01Speaker 1: in the for their conference championship hopes here and they
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: were underdogs at home in this game and they won.
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: ESPN of course doesn't have the ESPN bet thing. Oh no,
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: they do here it is. They were eight and a
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: half point underdogs. They won the game outright. Yeah, it
- 1:00:16Speaker 1: was a huge win for Navy there. So they went
- 1:00:18Speaker 1: into that extra time off on the best note possible.
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: So that's not good because sometimes you go into the
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: buy and the extra rest on a good note like that,
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: it's like, what do you have to fix? You have
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: nothing to fix. So I think that's a negative for Navy.
- 1:00:33Speaker 1: And they do still have their huge Army Navy game
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: up after this. It's always after the rest of the
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: regular season is over. That's coming up on December thirteenth.
- 1:00:41Speaker 2: But will they really look ahead to that that I
- 1:00:44Speaker 2: don't really think so.
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: I think the bad part of this is more than
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: they're coming off a massive win and that the buy
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: is going to be unhelpful to them. I think that's
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: the bad part of this. So I like Memphis in
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: this game. I think Navy They're run might come to
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: an end here. Man, Memphis is favored. You're getting a
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: better number on them, not four seventy percent of the
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: tickets on Navy. The public coming in on Navy. Man,
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: the public likes the team with the better record here.
- 1:01:11Speaker 1: They don't like what they've seen out of Memphis recently,
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: public very recency bias and fickle only sixty two percent
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: of the casual Navy though, So Memphis is setting up
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: as an anti public home favorite, which is it's a
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: decent way to look a lot of the times because
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: then you basically the oddsmakers are telling you you're getting
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: the better team and the public doesn't want them.
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: So that's what's going on here. I would lay it
- 1:01:35Speaker 2: with Memphis.
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: The totals dropped a little bit, the money's coming in
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: in the under for what it's worth.
- 1:01:41Speaker 2: I think the under is more.
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: Correlated to Navy, though, because Navy obviously runs the football constantly.
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: So I think if it's gonna be a lower scoring.
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: Game that benefits Navy, Memphis is gonna need to be
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: scoring in the game because that's what they do.
- 1:01:56Speaker 2: But that's the way that I lean.
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: We have a lot of college football tomorrow, and Black
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: Friday is gonna be It's gonna be an insane show. Tomorrow,
- 1:02:02Speaker 1: there's an NFL game, There's a lot of college basketball,
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: huge college football.
- 1:02:06Speaker 2: Slate that you see here.
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: I'll probably have at least one play in college football,
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: all these rivalry games coming up, and then yeah, today's
- 1:02:14Speaker 1: the break and we and it's still like an hour
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: show just for two plays. Tomorrow is gonna be brutal.
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: We got hockey and NBA as well tomorrow. I'm probably
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: gonna die, all right, And then we get NFL here.
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: I have an opinion on the side on all three
- 1:02:28Speaker 1: games here, and one of them is a play for me.
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: Let's get into it, man. NFL first game up is
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: at one. I'm used to it being at noon, though,
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: I think, right, isn't it usually noon or twelve thirty?
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: I don't know, Maybe I'm wrong about that. Lions Packers,
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: it's a big matchup, Man, huge NFC North matchup here
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: with a lot of implications. Lions are three point favorite,
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: seventy one percent of tickets, seventy two percent of the
- 1:02:52Speaker 1: cash on the Lions. I think there were various points
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: where you could get two and a half on the Lions.
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: Maybe you still can because I do like the Lions
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: in this game. This is revenge for the Lions, although
- 1:03:03Speaker 1: I know revenge might matter a little bit less in
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: a situation like this where both these teams are fighting
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: in the in the division here, man, so it is
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: a big game for both teams. But this is Dan
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: Campbell in pissed off mode though, I think, Man, because
- 1:03:17Speaker 1: you got Detroit lost to Green Bay in the season
- 1:03:20Speaker 1: opener twenty seven to thirteen at green Bay. And you know,
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: Dan Campbell was really angry after that because he came
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: out and he was angry about that and about people
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: saying that Detroit's offense was no longer good. After we
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: saw green Bay stifle Detroit's offense, people were like, Dan
- 1:03:37Speaker 1: Campbell can't do anything without Ben Johnson. And then Dan
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: Campbell got to face Ben Johnson in Chicago the next week,
- 1:03:45Speaker 1: and what did Dan Campbell do in that game, he
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: ran up the score and they scored fifty something points
- 1:03:50Speaker 1: in the game, so we might. I'm not saying they're
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: gonna score fifty They're not. Green Bay's defense is really good,
- 1:03:56Speaker 1: but I think it's gonna be a better game from
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: Detroit than that game was. Now for green Bay, they
- 1:04:02Speaker 1: just beat Minnesota last week. I know that's a decent
- 1:04:04Speaker 1: divisional whim. They looked pretty good, but I think it
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: was more than Minnesota looked awful. Yes, green Bay's defense
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: is good, I'll give them that. That was the first
- 1:04:13Speaker 1: time green Bay actually covered as a big favorite this
- 1:04:16Speaker 1: entire season. I'm pretty sure green Bay as a six
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: and a half were greater favorite. I think they had
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: failed to actually cover every single time they did here.
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy was awful in this game, though, so it
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: wasn't all green Bany. Green Bay's offense has been struggling. Man,
- 1:04:34Speaker 1: The green Bay's offense was not good in this game,
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: as Minnesota as was horrendous, unbelievably bad, and yes, some
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: of it was. The green Bay's defense is good, for sure.
- 1:04:43Speaker 1: I think green Bay is the better defense here. Detroit
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: is the better offense, And I know I usually say
- 1:04:50Speaker 1: better defense getting points, which is green Bay here. I
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: usually like to look that way, but in this case,
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: I do not. Detroit is coming off a scare, dude.
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: I know it's a short week and they did have
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: to play overtime, so that's a little bit of a concern.
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: But they almost lost to the New York Giants. Dude,
- 1:05:07Speaker 1: I think Detroit I thought they were gonna be a
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: little bit angry after that horrible offensive performance against Philadelphia.
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: They did still get over their team total, though they
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: had to do it in overtime, but yeah, it was
- 1:05:20Speaker 1: not the greatest performance. I think maybe they were looking ahead.
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: I mean this Thursday game, especially a Thanksgiving game, a
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: revenge divisional game against Green Bay. I think it was
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: a major look ahead component there. So I think Detroit
- 1:05:32Speaker 1: did get caught looking ahead in that game. I expect
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: them to show up. The monkey is already off Detroit's
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: back as far as there was a long period of
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: time where Detroit was just not winning on Thanksgiving, like
- 1:05:44Speaker 1: they hadn't won under like the new Golf, you know
- 1:05:46Speaker 1: whatever era. But they have since then. I think they've
- 1:05:49Speaker 1: won at least twice since then. I know last year
- 1:05:52Speaker 1: was a little bit bad Detroit had like a pretty
- 1:05:56Speaker 1: big lead on Thanksgiving last year, if you remember, against Chicago,
- 1:05:59Speaker 1: and they blew the lead and they came close to
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: losing the game, and then there was some clock mismanagement
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: on the part of ever Flush Eberflus, who was the
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: coach of Chicago at the time, who's now Dallas's defensive
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: coordinate her for some reason.
- 1:06:14Speaker 2: And they have a horrible defense. So that's great.
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: They'll be playing in the next game, by the way,
- 1:06:19Speaker 1: and Detroit's playing Dallas next too, So a lot of
- 1:06:22Speaker 1: things coming full circle here. But yes, the monkeys off
- 1:06:26Speaker 1: Detroit's back. They can win on Thanksgiving. They've proven that.
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: I think maybe they're gonna remember last year where they
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: almost blew the game and remind themselves to not do
- 1:06:34Speaker 1: that this time. Two years ago, I believe Detroit had
- 1:06:36Speaker 1: a horrible game against green Bay if I remember correctly,
- 1:06:39Speaker 1: I think it was just two years ago. Thanksgiving was
- 1:06:42Speaker 1: Detroit against green Bay if I'm not mistaken right, and
- 1:06:45Speaker 1: Detroit was the favorite, and Detroit had like three turnovers
- 1:06:48Speaker 1: and completely.
- 1:06:49Speaker 2: Lost the game. Do I remember that correctly?
- 1:06:51Speaker 1: I think I do, so Detroit might remember that as well,
- 1:06:54Speaker 1: because that was still with Dan Campbell, Jared Goff, whatever. Yeah,
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: I liked Detroit in this one. Detroit also seems to
- 1:07:03Speaker 1: not really have the hype anymore, man Like. People are
- 1:07:06Speaker 1: talking about how Detroit was so bad against the Giants
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: last week, which I just explained why that was the case.
- 1:07:12Speaker 1: People are saying Detroit might not even make the playoffs. Whatever, playoffs.
- 1:07:17Speaker 2: I don't know. It's all a little bit crazy. Playoffs.
- 1:07:21Speaker 2: Don't talk about playoffs, you kidding me? Playoffs? I just
- 1:07:26Speaker 2: hope we can win a game another game.
- 1:07:29Speaker 1: Yeah, so, but yeah, I think the anti Detroit hype
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: is getting a little extreme at this point.
- 1:07:36Speaker 2: Man.
- 1:07:36Speaker 1: And by the way, the Giants a lot of what
- 1:07:39Speaker 1: they did in that game were fluke plays. If you
- 1:07:41Speaker 1: saw that the first touchdown from the Giants was on
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: a flea flicker or sort of a flea flicker. It
- 1:07:47Speaker 1: was like a I think it was a lateral to
- 1:07:49Speaker 1: a wide receiver running back who then lateraled it back
- 1:07:52Speaker 1: to Winston and then he chucked it deep and Detroit
- 1:07:55Speaker 1: got fooled and there was just a guy wide open deep.
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: And then there was another play where Winston caught touchdown pass.
- 1:08:01Speaker 1: It made a ridiculous move to get into the end zone.
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: So there were a lot of just the Giants were
- 1:08:06Speaker 1: just deciding let's take Detroit by surprise, because the Giants
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: they're a huge underdog with nothing to lose, man, and
- 1:08:12Speaker 1: with Winston out there getting all fired up, you know,
- 1:08:15Speaker 1: the Giants, they were just willing to try whatever. They're
- 1:08:17Speaker 1: willing to run a bunch of trick plays. That's not
- 1:08:20Speaker 1: gonna be the case here. This game is gonna be.
- 1:08:23Speaker 2: Tight butt home, man.
- 1:08:24Speaker 1: With the Packers, they're not gonna be running all these
- 1:08:26Speaker 1: trick plays out there. And the Lions their defense is
- 1:08:30Speaker 1: not quite as bad as what it looked like last week. Yes,
- 1:08:32Speaker 1: the Packers have the better defense here. The Lions definitely
- 1:08:35Speaker 1: have the better offense here. With the Lions defense is mediocre,
- 1:08:38Speaker 1: it's not terrible. So yes, I like the Lions in
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: this game. It used to be twelve thirty. Stop changing tradition, man,
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: Although this one, I'm not too mad about this one though,
- 1:08:52Speaker 1: because I get more time to get everything done. Do
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: I ever get mad when the Lions get blown out?
- 1:09:01Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, only only if I.
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: Have something on the Lions, which I think I actually
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: did two years ago.
- 1:09:08Speaker 2: I think I might have.
- 1:09:10Speaker 1: I don't remember, I don't remember, I'm not gonna do
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: it this time, but I will. I'll have a pick
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: on the Lions, and I have to decide whether I'm
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: gonna add them to my pick five or not. I
- 1:09:20Speaker 1: don't know if I will. I don't know if it's
- 1:09:22Speaker 1: strong enough. But I leaned to the Lions in this game.
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: Sob what's up man?
- 1:09:28Speaker 2: Nashville?
- 1:09:28Speaker 1: Yeah, I wasn't really willing to do it, even though
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: I leaned to Nashville. Did my other leans win? By
- 1:09:34Speaker 1: the way, I don't remember. Let me look real quick.
- 1:09:36Speaker 1: The I had the two other leans that I gave
- 1:09:38Speaker 1: out where Montreal even though the money looked like it
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: was completely against it. Did I get that one right?
- 1:09:46Speaker 1: And then I forget what the other one was? I
- 1:09:49Speaker 1: don't remember, Man, wasn't I thought it was Montreal?
- 1:09:52Speaker 2: Yeah? It was, yeah, Montreal one? So I was right
- 1:09:55Speaker 2: about that too. And then what was the other one?
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: Uh?
- 1:10:00Speaker 2: I don't remember? Man? Yeah, I forget.
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: I had one other opinion. I was wrong about the
- 1:10:06Speaker 1: Bruins opinion. But I'm glad about that because they won
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: the game. So yeah, what was the other one that
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: I said almost made my card?
- 1:10:14Speaker 2: I don't remember. Now there was one other one? And
- 1:10:17Speaker 2: now it's gonna bug me.
- 1:10:18Speaker 1: Oh Chicago, they lost in overtime, but I mean an
- 1:10:23Speaker 1: underdog taking the game into overtime and that was close too,
- 1:10:26Speaker 1: So all right, I'm still the goat. Basically, Yeah, the Islanders,
- 1:10:33Speaker 1: I don't know. The Bruins just seem to have. The
- 1:10:35Speaker 1: Bruins match up well against the Islanders because the Islanders
- 1:10:38Speaker 1: don't play a lot of offense, I think, so the
- 1:10:40Speaker 1: games are always close, and then the Bruins are able
- 1:10:43Speaker 1: to like play into that style as well. Well, yeah,
- 1:10:48Speaker 1: we'll talk about the NHL tomorrow. I have not looked
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: at the NHL tomorrow at all. Rangers Bruins.
- 1:10:56Speaker 2: Highly unlikely. It's gonna be a play for me there.
- 1:10:58Speaker 1: All right, let's finish the NFL and then I'll be
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: able to get my picks in and then leave and
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: celebrate Thanksgiving baby.
- 1:11:07Speaker 2: All right.
- 1:11:08Speaker 1: Kansas City and Dallas, Now this is an interesting one.
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: And you already know what my thoughts are on this
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: because Robin was in the chat yesterday. She's a fan
- 1:11:18Speaker 1: of Kansas City. You guys know, I lean to Kansas
- 1:11:20Speaker 1: City in this game.
- 1:11:21Speaker 2: Now.
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: I did just see i VESPN on here and they
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: were talking about this game, and they had the panel
- 1:11:27Speaker 1: on I don't know whatever the NFL show is there,
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: and all of the talking heads picked Dallas to win
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: this game outright, except Joe Fortenbaugh was in studio and
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: he's like a known Las Vegas I believe he's a bookmaker,
- 1:11:42Speaker 1: but he also gives out like picks and stuff. Fort
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: and Baugh was the only one of the panel to
- 1:11:49Speaker 1: pick Kansas City. So that tells you something to when
- 1:11:51Speaker 1: you have all the talking heads or just a bunch
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: of morons.
- 1:11:54Speaker 2: And they're basically representative of the public.
- 1:11:57Speaker 1: Mike Greenberg and all those dudes, all of them picked
- 1:11:59Speaker 1: down this game even though Dallas is an underdog, and
- 1:12:02Speaker 1: then you have the bookmaker.
- 1:12:03Speaker 2: Out there being like, nah, Kansas.
- 1:12:05Speaker 1: City's favorite, I'm picking the Chiefs. That is something of note.
- 1:12:10Speaker 1: You know, maybe I should watch more of these idiots,
- 1:12:13Speaker 1: just because that gives me a better gauge on where
- 1:12:16Speaker 1: the public is, although I think I have a good
- 1:12:18Speaker 1: gauge anyway on it. The public likes Dallas, I think
- 1:12:21Speaker 1: man to at least a decent extent.
- 1:12:23Speaker 2: Dallas has all this hype.
- 1:12:24Speaker 1: Now everybody's on the Dallas train because they won a
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: Monday Night and then they won again last week mostly
- 1:12:31Speaker 1: because of that, because I mean Monday Night. I mean,
- 1:12:33Speaker 1: that was a play I gave out on the show.
- 1:12:35Speaker 1: Cowboys came out of a very beneficial buy. They started,
- 1:12:38Speaker 1: they played really well for their player who committed suicide,
- 1:12:42Speaker 1: and that was against the Raiders. I mean, come on, man,
- 1:12:45Speaker 1: the Raiders. The Raiders might be the worst team in
- 1:12:47Speaker 1: the NFL. So that's not an impressive win for the Cowboys.
- 1:12:50Speaker 1: I'm glad we got it right on the show. For
- 1:12:53Speaker 1: a winner there last week was impressive though, I gotta
- 1:12:56Speaker 1: say that, And I gave out the Cowboys as a
- 1:12:58Speaker 1: lean and I put them in my pick five, which
- 1:13:01Speaker 1: luckily because it was my last pick in that was
- 1:13:04Speaker 1: between Dallas and Pittsburgh, and with Pittsburgh they lost by
- 1:13:08Speaker 1: three and we had a two and a half in
- 1:13:10Speaker 1: our game, so I went with Dallas because we got
- 1:13:12Speaker 1: plus three and a half on it.
- 1:13:14Speaker 2: I'm really glad that I did that.
- 1:13:17Speaker 1: So Dallas, they're coming out a huge win, dude, Like,
- 1:13:21Speaker 1: I think that game meant more to them than this
- 1:13:23Speaker 1: game than this Thanksgiving game. To be honest, I know
- 1:13:27Speaker 1: Thanksgiving it's a big hyped event whatever, but come on, man,
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: Dallas just beat the Philadelphia Eagles.
- 1:13:34Speaker 2: Those teams hate each other.
- 1:13:36Speaker 1: It was a revenge game, divisional game that was a
- 1:13:39Speaker 1: massive win, and Dallas overcame a twenty one to nothing
- 1:13:42Speaker 1: deficit in that game to win the game in front
- 1:13:45Speaker 1: of their home crowd. And after this next week, they
- 1:13:48Speaker 1: have to play the Thursday Night game next week. Mister
- 1:13:51Speaker 1: Thursday Night me, I'll see what my opinion is gonna
- 1:13:54Speaker 1: be on that game when it happens. But they got
- 1:13:57Speaker 1: to play the Detroit Lions. Man, that is a big
- 1:14:00Speaker 1: conference game because right now Dallas and Detroit they're fighting for.
- 1:14:04Speaker 2: The final playoff spots right now. That is a huge game.
- 1:14:07Speaker 1: So I don't think this game actually matters as much
- 1:14:10Speaker 1: to Dallas. Kansas City actually kind of needs this game
- 1:14:13Speaker 1: a little bit more.
- 1:14:16Speaker 2: I think, Well, I don't.
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: Know, because both teams they still need it because it's
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: you know, they're fighting to make the playoffs basically, so
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: both teams do still need it. But it isn't out
- 1:14:26Speaker 1: of conference game for both teams, So I don't know,
- 1:14:28Speaker 1: it means a little bit less when it comes down
- 1:14:30Speaker 1: to it on the tie breakers and whatever. I know,
- 1:14:31Speaker 1: I usually say fade teams that are in road out
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: of conference games, which is what Kansas City is here.
- 1:14:38Speaker 1: I know, I usually say fade teams that are coming
- 1:14:41Speaker 1: off a big win. Kansas City is coming off a
- 1:14:43Speaker 1: big win, two big games in a row, actually actually three,
- 1:14:46Speaker 1: but they had to buy after the Buffalo loss, Kansas
- 1:14:49Speaker 1: City lost to Denver, big game there. They turned it
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: around and they had a huge comeback actually against Indy
- 1:14:55Speaker 1: last week.
- 1:14:56Speaker 2: That was a big win for Kansas City. Man. So
- 1:15:00Speaker 2: those are some of.
- 1:15:01Speaker 1: My hesitations about Kansas City. That and now on a
- 1:15:03Speaker 1: short week, they do have to travel. But going from
- 1:15:06Speaker 1: Kansas City to Dallas is not really a huge travel
- 1:15:09Speaker 1: spot I wouldn't say, but it is still, you know,
- 1:15:11Speaker 1: kind of an unfamiliar venue, right, So the home team
- 1:15:14Speaker 1: does have a preparation edge on Thursday because they don't
- 1:15:18Speaker 1: have to go anywhere. Dallas is just staying at home,
- 1:15:21Speaker 1: So there is a little bit of an edge there, which,
- 1:15:22Speaker 1: by the way, same thing with Detroit.
- 1:15:24Speaker 2: Detroit staying at home.
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: Green Bay is having to travel from green Bay, although
- 1:15:28Speaker 1: it's not a huge travel spot either, but ever green Bay,
- 1:15:32Speaker 1: I mean, they are a divisional teams, so it means
- 1:15:34Speaker 1: a little bit less like on a short week divisional
- 1:15:37Speaker 1: teams usually like they're more well equipped to go on
- 1:15:41Speaker 1: the road for a divisional game because they play at
- 1:15:43Speaker 1: that place every year and they know that team pretty well.
- 1:15:47Speaker 1: So the teams that are unfamiliar with each other, it's
- 1:15:50Speaker 1: actually worse for the road team in this case Kansas City.
- 1:15:53Speaker 1: But I still like Kansas City in this game. I
- 1:15:56Speaker 1: think Dallas is in the bigger letdown spot. I actually
- 1:15:59Speaker 1: think the game means less to Dallas. And then the
- 1:16:02Speaker 1: oddsmakers are also telling you what to think, just like
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: Fort and Bod did over there.
- 1:16:06Speaker 2: Chiefs are three point favorite. With juice.
- 1:16:08Speaker 1: You probably have to lay three and a half on
- 1:16:11Speaker 1: this maybe, well depends like you could lay three minus
- 1:16:13Speaker 1: one twenty I guess if you want to, and then
- 1:16:16Speaker 1: you get off that hook at least if you do
- 1:16:18Speaker 1: want Kansas City or you could money line. It probably
- 1:16:21Speaker 1: have to pay minus one eighty something on the money line,
- 1:16:25Speaker 1: which is a little bit expensive. Maybe money line parlay
- 1:16:29Speaker 1: fifty four percent of tickets, sixty six percent of the
- 1:16:31Speaker 1: cash on the Chiefs. The actual money's coming in on
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Yeah, I agree with the Chiefs.
- 1:16:37Speaker 2: In the game.
- 1:16:37Speaker 1: That would be my lean. It's not a play for me.
- 1:16:40Speaker 1: I was kind of considering it. I have some reservations
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: about it, like I said, but I think the Chiefs
- 1:16:45Speaker 1: get it done in that one.
- 1:16:48Speaker 2: As far as the totals. By the way, the total
- 1:16:50Speaker 2: did drop a little bit in.
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: Packers Lions seventy six percent of tickets on the over,
- 1:16:54Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the cash on the over. I
- 1:16:56Speaker 1: still think the Lions are kind of thought of as
- 1:16:58Speaker 1: this high flying off even though I like the Lions
- 1:17:01Speaker 1: in that game, and you gotta think the Lions are
- 1:17:03Speaker 1: somewhat correlated to a higher scoring game, correlated to an over,
- 1:17:07Speaker 1: because if Green Bay is gonna cover and or win,
- 1:17:10Speaker 1: they're probably gonna do it with their defense. But all
- 1:17:14Speaker 1: that being said, I mean, I don't really disagree with
- 1:17:17Speaker 1: the under in that game. I think it's gonna be
- 1:17:18Speaker 1: a tight divisional game. It's gonna play like a playoff game.
- 1:17:21Speaker 1: But I still like the Lions to get out of
- 1:17:23Speaker 1: there with the win and cover because it's a pretty
- 1:17:26Speaker 1: small number, especially if you get two and a half
- 1:17:30Speaker 1: and then yeah, this game is a much higher total.
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: By the way, Chiefs Cowboys fifty two and a half,
- 1:17:35Speaker 1: so it's gone kind of threw that key number of
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: fifty one and a half sixty nine sixty nine percent
- 1:17:41Speaker 1: of the tickets on the over fifty six percent of
- 1:17:43Speaker 1: the cash on the over, So the money looks like
- 1:17:45Speaker 1: it's coming back a little bit on the under. The
- 1:17:48Speaker 1: Chiefs I think are also correlated to an under in
- 1:17:50Speaker 1: this game. The Chiefs, I mean they're I know, they're
- 1:17:54Speaker 1: the favorite, but they're the team that plays defense.
- 1:17:56Speaker 2: Out of the two.
- 1:17:57Speaker 1: Okay, Like the Cowboys do have the better offense out
- 1:17:59Speaker 1: of the two, Chiefs offense is decent, but the Chiefs
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: are like a top five defense man and the Cowboys
- 1:18:05Speaker 1: are a bad defense. Even though they seem to be
- 1:18:08Speaker 1: improving a little bit. They did make some trades, it's
- 1:18:11Speaker 1: still ever flus in there. And the Cowboys, I mean,
- 1:18:15Speaker 1: what can you take away from their defense what they
- 1:18:17Speaker 1: did against Philly.
- 1:18:18Speaker 2: I mean, they're not the.
- 1:18:19Speaker 1: Greatest offense and the Raiders are just god awful, So
- 1:18:22Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know what you can really
- 1:18:24Speaker 1: take away from that. I do think the Chiefs will
- 1:18:26Speaker 1: be able to score against the Cowboys, though that defense
- 1:18:29Speaker 1: is still not totally fixed for the Cowboys, Like it's
- 1:18:32Speaker 1: still probably a bottom ten defense, So I think the
- 1:18:36Speaker 1: Cowboys are gonna be correlated to an over in this game,
- 1:18:39Speaker 1: I would probably lean towards more of an under there
- 1:18:41Speaker 1: because I do think the Chiefs will win, although I
- 1:18:44Speaker 1: think the Chiefs could win in a high scoring game too.
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: I mean, they do have offensive weapons, but the Chiefs
- 1:18:50Speaker 1: just don't really have the ability to run the football though,
- 1:18:52Speaker 1: so that kind of causes their offense to struggle a
- 1:18:55Speaker 1: little bit, even though they kind of supplement or they
- 1:18:57Speaker 1: supplay what's the word I'm looking for. They they use
- 1:19:01Speaker 1: short passing in lieu of the rushing attack.
- 1:19:05Speaker 2: Pacheco is gonna play. It looks like, by the way,
- 1:19:07Speaker 2: I don't even know if that really matters for the
- 1:19:09Speaker 2: Chiefs because he doesn't really ever.
- 1:19:10Speaker 1: Do anything anyway. Now we'll get to my actual play.
- 1:19:15Speaker 1: SOB what is that? That's wait, you're plus twenty two
- 1:19:20Speaker 1: hundred on what on Dallas to win the Super Bowl
- 1:19:24Speaker 1: or on the Chiefs.
- 1:19:28Speaker 2: You're talking about the Chiefs?
- 1:19:29Speaker 1: I assume, right, Actually, no Chiefs are gonna be way
- 1:19:33Speaker 1: better than twenty two hundred. Right, The Chiefs probably have
- 1:19:36Speaker 1: the best odds to win the AFC right now, even
- 1:19:38Speaker 1: though they're sitting at six and five.
- 1:19:40Speaker 2: The Chiefs are really.
- 1:19:40Speaker 1: Really good Baltimore Ravens is what I hope it is, man,
- 1:19:46Speaker 1: because they were my preseason pick to win the whole thing.
- 1:19:49Speaker 1: I still think they're definitely gonna win their division. I
- 1:19:52Speaker 1: think the Ravens still are gonna win the AFC. They're good,
- 1:19:55Speaker 1: They're sleeping giant. I think people are still sleeping on them.
- 1:19:59Speaker 1: And Green was my pick to win the NFC, and
- 1:20:01Speaker 1: I think they still could do that. Let's go to
- 1:20:04Speaker 1: the best bet, man, this is the only other best bet,
- 1:20:07Speaker 1: dirty sock, I see you in there. Thanks for hanging out.
- 1:20:12Speaker 1: I gave out South Florida on college basketball already, and
- 1:20:14Speaker 1: now the final play is going to be, Oh, you played.
- 1:20:21Speaker 2: Baltimore to win the Super Bowl when they were one
- 1:20:23Speaker 2: and five.
- 1:20:23Speaker 1: I love that bet. I recommended doing it when they
- 1:20:27Speaker 1: were one and five. I recommended Baltimore to win the
- 1:20:29Speaker 1: division though which there were only a small underdog at
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: that point to win the division. But that was my
- 1:20:35Speaker 1: recommendation Baltimore to win the division. They were like plus
- 1:20:38Speaker 1: one twenty when they were.
- 1:20:39Speaker 2: One and five.
- 1:20:40Speaker 1: There were only plus one twenty. And now my recommendation
- 1:20:44Speaker 1: before tomorrow's game is that you play the Bears to
- 1:20:46Speaker 1: miss the playoffs. At plus one twenty, which seems like
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: a ridiculous price, Like, how could the Bears be that
- 1:20:52Speaker 1: close to missing the playoffs? But I already told you
- 1:20:55Speaker 1: they're gonna be an underdog in every remaining game except
- 1:20:58Speaker 1: the home game against Cleveland, so the Bears, and that
- 1:21:01Speaker 1: game is in a Packer sandwich, So the Bears might
- 1:21:05Speaker 1: lose every single game for the remainder of the season.
- 1:21:08Speaker 1: But my play tonight, we know what it is. It's
- 1:21:11Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens minus seven. We're getting extra value on
- 1:21:15Speaker 1: this number now, and we're gonna go with it. The
- 1:21:16Speaker 1: money looks like it agrees. Hopefully you can get the
- 1:21:19Speaker 1: seven and not seven and a half. I think you'll
- 1:21:20Speaker 1: be able to do it. The public might start coming
- 1:21:24Speaker 1: in and taking the Bengals as well. I think if
- 1:21:26Speaker 1: you keep looking, you'll get a seven. If you can't
- 1:21:30Speaker 1: find the seven and it's seven and a half, I
- 1:21:32Speaker 1: might tease the Ravens because I really don't think they're
- 1:21:34Speaker 1: gonna lose the game. This should have been the one
- 1:21:37Speaker 1: I recommended as a teaser along with the forty nine
- 1:21:39Speaker 1: ers on the Monday night game, because I think the
- 1:21:42Speaker 1: Ravens are gonna win the game.
- 1:21:44Speaker 2: For sure. So I would tease that thing. You could
- 1:21:46Speaker 2: tease it down.
- 1:21:47Speaker 1: To one and a half if it's at seven and
- 1:21:48Speaker 1: a half, and then find another game to tease it
- 1:21:51Speaker 1: with this week, which I haven't really analyzed the rest
- 1:21:53Speaker 1: of the games this week yet, but I'm sure there's
- 1:21:55Speaker 1: something that would make a decent tease otherwise this week,
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: although I haven't actually looked yet. Like I said, actually, yeah,
- 1:22:04Speaker 1: I would tease it with the Patriots on Monday night. Actually,
- 1:22:06Speaker 1: if you haven't set up a teaser yet, I do
- 1:22:09Speaker 1: not think the Patriots are gonna lose that game on Monday,
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: So that's what I would do. I would do Ravens Patriots,
- 1:22:15Speaker 1: tease them both down to one and a half if
- 1:22:17Speaker 1: you want to do a teaser. But we're gonna go
- 1:22:19Speaker 1: with the Ravens minus seven.
- 1:22:21Speaker 2: Here. The seven's are out there now.
- 1:22:23Speaker 1: The Ravens are a ten and a half point favorite
- 1:22:26Speaker 1: on the opener, and now the line has moved. They're
- 1:22:29Speaker 1: actually probably around eleven and now it's moved to seven.
- 1:22:32Speaker 1: And why it's because the Bengals, for whatever reason, are
- 1:22:35Speaker 1: rushing Joe Barrow back out there, even though they're a
- 1:22:38Speaker 1: three and eight football team or whatever.
- 1:22:40Speaker 2: They are. I don't know why they're doing that.
- 1:22:43Speaker 1: The money's coming in on the Ravens, sixty nine percent
- 1:22:45Speaker 1: of ticket seventy eight percent of the casual on the Ravens.
- 1:22:47Speaker 1: Seems like there still are not many raven believers out there.
- 1:22:50Speaker 1: Man sitting at six and five, But yeah, I know
- 1:22:54Speaker 1: they've reeled off a bunch of wins. They've won every
- 1:22:56Speaker 1: game since their bye, but nobody's impressed by any of them.
- 1:23:01Speaker 1: Even though the Ravens won twice for me as well
- 1:23:04Speaker 1: on the show, they beat Chicago and Minnesota. Those are
- 1:23:06Speaker 1: both plays for me on the show. Nobody's looking at
- 1:23:11Speaker 1: Baltimore beating Chicago. Everybody kind of loves Chicago right now,
- 1:23:14Speaker 1: with though I actually put less talk into that win
- 1:23:17Speaker 1: because it was just a really good spot for Baltimore.
- 1:23:21Speaker 1: And I think Chicago is the most overrated team in
- 1:23:23Speaker 1: NFL history, so but the public seems to just ignore
- 1:23:27Speaker 1: that at this point. And now they see, oh, Baltimore
- 1:23:29Speaker 1: beat Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland, and the Jets. Nobody's impressed by
- 1:23:33Speaker 1: any of that. They didn't cover against Cleveland, they didn't
- 1:23:35Speaker 1: cover against the Jets. But I like that because Baltimore
- 1:23:39Speaker 1: has all this momentum right now.
- 1:23:40Speaker 2: They're doing what they're supposed to do.
- 1:23:42Speaker 1: They're beating bad teams and they're not over exerting themselves.
- 1:23:46Speaker 2: That's what you want. Now they have this big game.
- 1:23:48Speaker 1: This is a big game. I know it's a big
- 1:23:50Speaker 1: game for both teams. With Baltimore winning this game could
- 1:23:53Speaker 1: put them in sole possession of the AFC North, or
- 1:23:56Speaker 1: at least it will temporarily at least, and then they
- 1:23:58Speaker 1: face Pittsburgh next week, so they kind of have control
- 1:24:02Speaker 1: over their own destiny here because they still have to
- 1:24:04Speaker 1: face Cincinnati and Pittsburgh again after that too, So Baltimore,
- 1:24:10Speaker 1: they definitely have everything in front of them. Man, I
- 1:24:12Speaker 1: think they're absolutely gonna win the division. I think they're
- 1:24:15Speaker 1: gonna show up for this game. Osmakers are telling you
- 1:24:17Speaker 1: the better team. And now we have the situation where
- 1:24:20Speaker 1: we're getting line value because Joe Barrow is coming back
- 1:24:22Speaker 1: and that makes this a reverse injured player spot now,
- 1:24:27Speaker 1: which I always talk about. Man, when your star player
- 1:24:29Speaker 1: comes back and he's been off for a long time,
- 1:24:31Speaker 1: sometimes he has to get back into the rhythm, get
- 1:24:34Speaker 1: back into it.
- 1:24:34Speaker 2: He's only been practicing for a couple of weeks.
- 1:24:36Speaker 1: I think now at most this seems a little bit
- 1:24:40Speaker 1: rushed to me. Sometimes the team has to regain their
- 1:24:42Speaker 1: chemistry and you get line value fading the team, and
- 1:24:46Speaker 1: that team can kind of like ease up a little
- 1:24:48Speaker 1: bit and be like, yes, our star player is back,
- 1:24:50Speaker 1: you know what I mean, So we're getting extra line
- 1:24:52Speaker 1: value now on the Ravens. For that reason, Cincinnati also
- 1:24:57Speaker 1: played a good game last week, man, against New England.
- 1:24:59Speaker 2: So they put in a big effort last week.
- 1:25:01Speaker 1: They almost beat the ten and two Patriots, who were
- 1:25:05Speaker 1: undefeated on the road. The Bengals probably should have won
- 1:25:08Speaker 1: this game, to be honest, the Bengals were losing this
- 1:25:10Speaker 1: game by three down the stretch, and they had chances
- 1:25:12Speaker 1: to win the game and blew it as big underdogs.
- 1:25:16Speaker 1: So the fact that they played that close against the Patriots.
- 1:25:19Speaker 1: They did get out game by close to one hundred yards,
- 1:25:22Speaker 1: but it was a close game, dude, Bengals absolutely had
- 1:25:25Speaker 1: chances to win. Although the scoreboard actually makes it look
- 1:25:28Speaker 1: a little bit better than it was because they did
- 1:25:30Speaker 1: get out game by almost one hundred yards. Now they're
- 1:25:32Speaker 1: going to turn a round off of that and they
- 1:25:34Speaker 1: got to go to Baltimore. I really don't love it, man,
- 1:25:37Speaker 1: and we're looking at this this Bengals team. Man, I
- 1:25:40Speaker 1: don't think they've been that good on the road either
- 1:25:42Speaker 1: this year. Let's see what have they done on the road.
- 1:25:45Speaker 1: They beat Cleveland barely by one, didn't cover. They got
- 1:25:49Speaker 1: blown out at Minnesota somehow. That was the battle of
- 1:25:53Speaker 1: the backup quarterback. So that was that was Carson Wentz
- 1:25:56Speaker 1: from Minnesota and Browning for Cincinnati. So yeah, I know
- 1:25:59Speaker 1: it was brown Browning was there in the Denver game.
- 1:26:02Speaker 1: In the green Bay game, they lost in a blowout
- 1:26:04Speaker 1: to Denver. They actually covered against green Bay on the road,
- 1:26:07Speaker 1: lost and then they got blown out by Pittsburgh with
- 1:26:10Speaker 1: Joe Flacco. They're in the Pittsburgh revenge spot there. So
- 1:26:15Speaker 1: Cincinnati has one cover on the road this season. They've
- 1:26:18Speaker 1: lost every game by nine plus on the road except
- 1:26:22Speaker 1: for the game where they won against Cleveland, but they
- 1:26:23Speaker 1: didn't cover it. So Cincinnati has not been good on
- 1:26:26Speaker 1: the road. They've not been good as a road underdog really,
- 1:26:30Speaker 1: So that's not good obviously. And that first game was
- 1:26:34Speaker 1: with Borrow. Borrow got hurt in the second game. Now,
- 1:26:37Speaker 1: the other thing about Borrow coming back is that we
- 1:26:40Speaker 1: know about Burrow, like when he comes back from a
- 1:26:42Speaker 1: long layoff.
- 1:26:44Speaker 2: He tends to not be that good. We've seen him.
- 1:26:46Speaker 1: Start slow every single season, and it happened again this year.
- 1:26:50Speaker 2: Their offense was terrible in that game against Cleveland.
- 1:26:52Speaker 1: I know Cleveland's defense is good, probably, I mean, they're
- 1:26:55Speaker 1: better than Baltimore's defense, But Baltimore, their defense was horrible
- 1:26:59Speaker 1: at the beginning of the year.
- 1:27:00Speaker 2: Their defense is actually is at least improving.
- 1:27:02Speaker 1: It's at least been better recently, even though they've faced
- 1:27:05Speaker 1: some bad offenses, but still their defense is improving. Cincinnati's
- 1:27:10Speaker 1: offense might not be as good as we're gonna think
- 1:27:11Speaker 1: that it will be with Borrow in his first game back,
- 1:27:14Speaker 1: and we don't know how he's gonna adapt.
- 1:27:16Speaker 2: They're coming back right away.
- 1:27:18Speaker 1: They're having to go on the road on a short week,
- 1:27:20Speaker 1: which is not really that easy, even though I know
- 1:27:22Speaker 1: it's a little bit easier because it's a divisional game,
- 1:27:24Speaker 1: but even so, Baltimore, yeah, man, I mean, I don't know.
- 1:27:30Speaker 1: I think Baltimore might even have the better offense in
- 1:27:33Speaker 1: this state right now with Joe Barrow coming back big time.
- 1:27:36Speaker 1: Question mark Baltimore. I know Lamar Jackson's been dealing with
- 1:27:39Speaker 1: some injuries as well, both quarterbacks actually dealing with toe injuries,
- 1:27:43Speaker 1: which is weird. Lamar Jackson, of course was hurt for
- 1:27:45Speaker 1: a while. He hasn't looked great.
- 1:27:48Speaker 2: Since coming back.
- 1:27:48Speaker 1: But I just think Baltimore part of the reason for
- 1:27:51Speaker 1: it is I think Baltimore just didn't really have a
- 1:27:53Speaker 1: reason to just go full throttle offensively, and now I
- 1:27:57Speaker 1: think they will.
- 1:27:59Speaker 2: And of course we are also what I.
- 1:28:01Speaker 1: Haven't mentioned yet is a Cincinnati probably has the absolute
- 1:28:04Speaker 1: worst defense in the NFL, worse than the Cowboys. This
- 1:28:08Speaker 1: defense is like just horrendous. It is a dumpster fire,
- 1:28:12Speaker 1: the Bengals defense. So Baltimore should absolutely be able to
- 1:28:15Speaker 1: put up points in this one. Yeah, I think they'll
- 1:28:19Speaker 1: be able to do it. They should be able to
- 1:28:21Speaker 1: score enough that being the case, they should be able
- 1:28:23Speaker 1: to cover a number like this. The fact that they're
- 1:28:26Speaker 1: going up against a horrific defense. And remember that if
- 1:28:28Speaker 1: the Ravens are winning, they still got Derrick Henry, so
- 1:28:32Speaker 1: they still have a great running back. And when they're
- 1:28:34Speaker 1: ahead and they're running the football, they're still able to
- 1:28:36Speaker 1: do that and maybe even extend the lead.
- 1:28:39Speaker 2: So that's also good for the Ravens.
- 1:28:41Speaker 1: So yeah, we're going with the Ravens in this one
- 1:28:43Speaker 1: minus seven. That's the play Colts are not going to
- 1:28:48Speaker 1: the super Bowl. No, Yeah, I know the Colts. The
- 1:28:53Speaker 1: Colts are They've played a really weak schedule, They're not
- 1:28:56Speaker 1: as good as they look, and they have a great
- 1:28:58Speaker 1: running back. And yeah, I mean I don't know's that's
- 1:29:02Speaker 1: about it. Like they're gonna get bounced out of the
- 1:29:04Speaker 1: playoffs for sure. I would also put the Patriots in
- 1:29:08Speaker 1: that category.
- 1:29:08Speaker 2: I would put.
- 1:29:11Speaker 1: Broncos in that category. All of them are gonna get
- 1:29:14Speaker 1: bounced in the playoffs. And then obviously I'm gonna put
- 1:29:18Speaker 1: the Bears in that category if they even make the
- 1:29:20Speaker 1: playoffs at all. Yeah, those are the teams that are
- 1:29:24Speaker 1: not actually good and people think that they are good.
- 1:29:27Speaker 1: It's those mostly, it's those four. Well, I don't want
- 1:29:30Speaker 1: to say they're all not good, but they're not as
- 1:29:32Speaker 1: good as people think they are. I'll say the Bears
- 1:29:35Speaker 1: are actually not good though, like the Bears are legitimately
- 1:29:39Speaker 1: a below average offense and a like bottom five probably defense.
- 1:29:45Speaker 1: The Bears are terrible. The Patriots, the Colts, Broncos, they're
- 1:29:51Speaker 1: not bad teams. The Broncos obviously have an elite defense,
- 1:29:53Speaker 1: but those teams are not as good as people think,
- 1:29:56Speaker 1: and again there's inexperience as well with a lot of
- 1:29:59Speaker 1: those teams.
- 1:30:00Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson to the moon.
- 1:30:02Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, let's go with it, man, the Baltimore
- 1:30:05Speaker 1: Ravens as far as the total in that game, just
- 1:30:07Speaker 1: because I talk about these isolated totals sixty two percent
- 1:30:10Speaker 1: to take us fifty two percent of the cash on
- 1:30:11Speaker 1: the overs, the money also coming in on the under.
- 1:30:14Speaker 2: In this one, the total did.
- 1:30:15Speaker 1: Go up to fifty one and a half, so it
- 1:30:17Speaker 1: went through a key number of fifty one, you know.
- 1:30:21Speaker 2: I mean, I think the line.
- 1:30:24Speaker 1: Moved partially because Joe Barrow's coming back, So maybe it's
- 1:30:27Speaker 1: a little bit of an overreaction.
- 1:30:29Speaker 2: I could see this.
- 1:30:30Speaker 1: Game going under just because it is a big divisional game.
- 1:30:33Speaker 1: Both teams played crazy high scoring games last year. And
- 1:30:38Speaker 1: the thing is, we don't know if the Bengals offense
- 1:30:39Speaker 1: is gonna hit the ground running with Borrow coming back
- 1:30:42Speaker 1: after a long layoff, because obviously a lot of my
- 1:30:45Speaker 1: handicap is based on the guests that that will not
- 1:30:49Speaker 1: be the case. So so I think the Ravens offense
- 1:30:52Speaker 1: will score.
- 1:30:53Speaker 2: Yes. Uh.
- 1:30:54Speaker 1: And in the past recent pass they have scored quite
- 1:30:57Speaker 1: a bit against the Bengals, So the other option.
- 1:30:59Speaker 2: Here is team total over. I don't disagree with that either.
- 1:31:02Speaker 1: If you want to just go with the Ravens to
- 1:31:04Speaker 1: score a ton, they'll probably have to score about thirty.
- 1:31:07Speaker 1: But I think they could do that against a train
- 1:31:09Speaker 1: wreck of a Bengals defense. So that's the other way
- 1:31:13Speaker 1: to do it. And the Bengals offense is a question mark.
- 1:31:15Speaker 1: But I'm relying on Bengals offense just being struggling in
- 1:31:21Speaker 1: struggle mode, struggle sessions, and of course the extra line
- 1:31:25Speaker 1: value we're getting on the Ravens here. And by the way,
- 1:31:28Speaker 1: something of note here is that Lamar Jackson versus Joe
- 1:31:31Speaker 1: Burrow their history against each other. Lamar Jackson is six
- 1:31:35Speaker 1: and one against him, and he's won the last five
- 1:31:39Speaker 1: times these two quarterbacks have matched up. So Lamar Jackson
- 1:31:42Speaker 1: has owned the series. I know it's a team sport.
- 1:31:45Speaker 1: Part of it has to do with the team, but
- 1:31:47Speaker 1: Ravens with Lamar Jackson have owned the Bengals with Barrown.
- 1:31:51Speaker 1: I know last year, I think both games are pretty close.
- 1:31:54Speaker 1: I know last year I had to play on the
- 1:31:55Speaker 1: Bengals in the game in Cincinnati, and the Bengals absolutely
- 1:31:59Speaker 1: blew that game. Borrow had a really really untimely interception
- 1:32:04Speaker 1: in the game when the Bengals looked like they were
- 1:32:06Speaker 1: driving to maybe even win the game, and they wound
- 1:32:08Speaker 1: up not even covering. That was brutal. And then we
- 1:32:11Speaker 1: did have and then I didn't have a play in
- 1:32:14Speaker 1: the other game. But in the other game, if you remember,
- 1:32:16Speaker 1: the Bengals tried to go for two at Baltimore, which
- 1:32:19Speaker 1: I didn't mind that decision to try to beat the
- 1:32:21Speaker 1: Ravens on the road as underdogs at that point. But
- 1:32:24Speaker 1: the Bengals missed the two point conversion lost by one.
- 1:32:27Speaker 1: But the Ravens might even remember that and remember that
- 1:32:30Speaker 1: the Bengals gave him a scare in that game. So
- 1:32:34Speaker 1: I still like it. That's gonna do it, man. So
- 1:32:38Speaker 1: once again, only two plays today. A long show still,
- 1:32:40Speaker 1: but South Florida in basketball minus six. I think you
- 1:32:43Speaker 1: got to lay about seven now on that, unfortunately, and
- 1:32:46Speaker 1: then Baltimore hopefully can get the minus seven on that,
- 1:32:49Speaker 1: because that's where we're going in the NFL today. Those
- 1:32:51Speaker 1: are the two plays today that will do it. What
- 1:33:01Speaker 1: are we talking about? The Eagles offense under a lot
- 1:33:03Speaker 1: of pressure it's not gonna be from the Bears defense
- 1:33:05Speaker 1: because that defense sucks. I think the Eagles are absolutely
- 1:33:10Speaker 1: gonna come out with fire in that game because of
- 1:33:12Speaker 1: that ugly blown game against Dallas.
- 1:33:15Speaker 2: You're gonna see a very pissed Eagles team.
- 1:33:18Speaker 1: So you know what, you already know what my opinion
- 1:33:20Speaker 1: is in that game tomorrow. Am I gonna add it
- 1:33:22Speaker 1: to my actual card? Probably not, but I do like
- 1:33:25Speaker 1: the Eagles in that game. Thank you, mister Penzy, Jeffrey
- 1:33:30Speaker 1: sob dirty sock. Thanks everybody for hanging out this morning. Brad,
- 1:33:35Speaker 1: did I miss anybody?
- 1:33:36Speaker 2: Hopefully?
- 1:33:36Speaker 1: Oh Andy, I don't think I'm in Zach. Thanks everybody
- 1:33:39Speaker 1: for hanging out. I think in stacks.
- 1:33:40Speaker 2: Holy crap. Thanks everybody for hanging out. Man.
- 1:33:43Speaker 1: I'll be back tomorrow, I suppose. And it's gonna be
- 1:33:46Speaker 1: a rough one. It's gonna be rough, guys tomorrow. There's
- 1:33:49Speaker 1: a lot of games tomorrow.
- 1:33:51Speaker 2: Oh God. But today we get to take it a
- 1:33:54Speaker 2: little bit easy. That's gonna do it for now. Learned
- 1:33:57Speaker 2: to tode on Instagram, Learned to tode on Twitter.
- 1:33:59Speaker 1: Like, subscribe to you here, leave me some good comments,
- 1:34:02Speaker 1: Give me a good review on Apple on Spotify, and yeah,
- 1:34:08Speaker 1: listen over there. That helps me out as well. Covered
- 1:34:10Speaker 1: in yuke on YouTube. I know I've been doing a
- 1:34:12Speaker 1: couple of uke covers. I did a couple recently, did
- 1:34:16Speaker 1: a Thanksgiving ish one on Twitter. Haven't uploaded anywhere else yet.
- 1:34:20Speaker 1: I gotta do it, I know, but time crunch, baby,
- 1:34:24Speaker 1: I don't know.
- 1:34:25Speaker 2: I got a lot of stuff.
- 1:34:26Speaker 1: Going on and then and I gotta get out of
- 1:34:28Speaker 1: here somewhat soon as well. And Patreon dot com slash
- 1:34:33Speaker 1: learned a tow and you can throw me some support.
- 1:34:35Speaker 1: You get Spotify yuke feed that's not up to date,
- 1:34:39Speaker 1: and you get to request stuff that gets overlooked by
- 1:34:43Speaker 1: me because I haven't been in there recently.
- 1:34:44Speaker 2: I apologize to Charles.
- 1:34:46Speaker 1: Thank you guys for hanging out. Happy Thanksgiving. Everybody have
- 1:34:48Speaker 1: a good one.
- 1:34:49Speaker 2: Everybody.
- 1:34:50Speaker 1: Make sure to eat some really good food today, you know,
- 1:34:54Speaker 1: think about what you're thankful for, Spend it with family,
- 1:34:57Speaker 1: with friends, whatever you do, you know, enjoy it, have
- 1:35:01Speaker 1: fun today, don't overdo it.
- 1:35:03Speaker 2: And yeah, I'll be back out tomorrow. Peace for now, guys.
- 1:35:07Speaker 2: Thanks