Latest / Financial Survival Network / The Future of Global Currency - Eric Hadik #6094

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The Future of Global Currency - Eric Hadik #6094 · Financial Survival Network

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Whole dollar currency war perspective that I take where it's almost like a almost like
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a game of rock paper scissors, But I also equate it to an algebraic
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equation of a tiny B. We'll ce where you've got your the dollar in
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fiat currencies representing one of those factors, Golden heart currency representing another, and
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then bitcoin and cryptoslash digital currency representing the third. You are listening to Carrie.
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Let'sa's financial survival network where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere
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and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than and welcome. You are listening
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to the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey,
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Eric Attock is with us now. You find him at inside track Trading dot
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com. That's I n side Tracktrading dot com. So Eric. As far
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as precious metals go, h we've been seeing some activity there record high gold
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prices, but not so much for silver. I think that gold and silver,
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particularly gold at this time, has reached a new plateau where it will
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probably spend some time throughout the last six months. My work had been ever
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since, ever since it turn positive in October last year, it was projecting
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a surge up to into the April May time praying with the potential for a
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final spike high in July. I'm still treating that as a possibility, although
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I've had one or two indicators start to turn negative on gold for the one
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to two month outlook, so I am looking at more of a consolidation phase
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up here. When gold and silver surged into April and right into that April
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nineteenth timeframe that I think we even talked about in some past discussions, gold
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had reached its three to six month upside targets right around the twenty four forty
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twenty four to fifty level. And then when we had that pullback into early
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May and a new search where silver reached some of its three to six month
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upside targets around the forty two dollars with gold only retesting its highs. You
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began to get a little bit of that divergence at the at the highs,
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with one of the markets making a significantly higher high, the other just making
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a double top. And then as I alluded to a minute ago, gold
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turned a weekly trend indicator that I follow closely turned that down. That's a
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bit of a lagging and confirming indicator, but it just reinforced to me that
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gold had probably set a three to four month top back in April, retested
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it in May, and as I said before, it could see a retest
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of it in July. But most of the other technicals are just showing me
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that it needs some time before it can see a new advance. And with
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that said, I do think there's going to be more upside out over the
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six to twelve month timeframe. I think there are a lot of factors,
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some that aren't even on traders readars, that are are positive for gold and
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silver and probably will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. All Right,
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so intermediate high and I think the same for silver, Yes, I
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do. Silver. By reaching that thirty two dollars level. A little bit
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above thirty two is where some of the targets I had came into play.
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It fulfilled a multi month upside targets and usually when a market has had a
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couple of surges like that, it needs some time to just establish a comfort
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zone up at that new plateau and also awaked some slow send upwards sloping averages
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to start to catch up with the markets. Anytime you get a market going
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too far away from that moving equilibrium, it usually wants to come back to
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it. And sometimes that's just by trading sideways and waiting for the averages to
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catch up. Sometimes it's by declining enough to meet that rising average. But
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that's one of the things that I think you're needing to see in gold and
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silver at this time. Okay, so yeah, the tree does not grow
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to the sky, and it needs time to consolidate, and that's kind of
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kind of the natural course of events. So what about bitcoin that hit new
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all time record highs Now it's hovering in the mid sixties to low seventies,
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same situation there, A little bit different in bitcoin. I've often talked about
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the whole dollar currency war perspective that I take when it's almost like a almost
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like a game of rock paper scissors. But I also equate it to an
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algebraic equation of a timey b we'll c where you've got your the dollar in
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fiat currencies representing one of those factors golden hard currency representing another, and then
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bitcoin and crypto slash digital currency representing the third. And usually you'll only get
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one of those three moving significantly at any point in time, and the other
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two are usually staying in more of a trading ring. When Bitcoin finally came
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into a peak in the first half of March, that kind of allowed gold
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to accelerate to the upside, even though they were both showing strength against the
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dollar. They do it in different stages, and it's almost like one or
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the other is attracting a lot of the speculative interest from anti dollar traders.
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When bitcoin rallied into mid March, it fuld fill a lot of three to
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six month cycles that I was watching. I had kind of laid out a
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scenario last year where I thought we would see an overall serve into late February
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early March of twenty twenty four, and then bitcoin would have to march some
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time see seven corrections. But the long term outlook was still for higher highs
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in twenty twenty five, and I think that's where Bitcoin has been now for
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a few months, is trading at or below that mid March peak, and
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I expect that peak to continue to hold for the coming months, So it
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wouldn't surprise me to see some additional sell off in this time period over the
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next couple months as bitcoin and cryptos just kind of similar to gold and silver
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in that respect, as they set a new plateau and developed some comfort levels
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up at those higher levels. Okay, and so let's talk about the dollar.
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Since you brought it up hit its all time peak back in I guess
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it was October, well not all time, but the recent October of twenty
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two at one thirteen. Now it's been trading, you know, still trading
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pretty robustly one oh six, one oh five. Right today, as we
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talk on June twenty fourth, it's trading at one oh five five. I
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think the last time we spoke to you were thinking it would be declining at
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some point. I am looking at the dollar primarily from a longer term perspective,
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and I do think that that late twenty twenty two peak was a major
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top in the dollar, and there's many factors that go into that in my
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thinking. But stepping back to the broadest perspective, I often discussed that what
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I call the forty year cycle of currency war, and I trace it back
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for hundreds of years in America at even many more hundreds of years in Europe.
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And the conclusion that I had from that overall cycle is that you will
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usually see finalees, you know, big significant culminating moves at the leading into
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its transition of that cycle. And I was looking at twenty twenty one,
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twenty twenty two as being the transition, kind of entering into a new forty
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year cycle. And so from that perspective, the dollar was already looking like
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its bull market, which really started in two thousand and eight, was coming
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to a close. It had traced out a very classic textbook five wave advance.
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From that two thousand and eight low I published many of my upside targets
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surrounding one ten to one thirteen at the time, and I think you just
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mentioned the dollar peaked at one thirteen, and there were a lot of corroborating
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factors that went into that analysis that the dollar was studying a multi year high,
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and that I think from a fundamental perspective, the handwriting was already on
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the wall that when you looked through the through the previous decade, through the
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twenty tens, that you saw a slowly developing but gaining momentum move for a
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lot of other large trading nations attempting to move away from the dollar, attempting
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to combat the dollar supremacy and hegemony throughout the world. And that just fits
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so perfectly with this ongoing forty year cycle of currency war that the dollars supremacy
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was coming to a close, coming to a culmination. And it doesn't mean
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that suddenly the dollar is going to be replaced on the world stage as a
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primary reserve currency. But when you factor in all of the debts of the
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US and who holds that debt and what goes into the dollar valuation, it
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wouldn't take that significant of a shift in the global reserve currency hierarchy to really
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recavoc on the dollar, on the US economy, on interest rates. And
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I think that's what we're looking at in the coming years. And you just
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kind of keep hearing more and more events communicates into nations that are moving in
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that direction. You know, is the year last year when the bricks Brazil,
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Russia, India, China, and South Africa that monetary union, when
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they invited another six nations to join, and several of them Middle East oil
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producing nations. And that is moving towards a greater union, and one of
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their primary things is combating a dollar supremacy and starting to do more international trade
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in other currency. But even just in the last week or two, you
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had some information coming out of Saudi Arabia talking about the rethinking the whole dollar
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oil connection that had been in place since nineteen seventy three seventy four. That's
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really what has propped up the dollar for this past fifty years, and now
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there's more and more talk of starting to adjust that as well. And like
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I said, it doesn't mean that suddenly the dollar's going to dry up and
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disappear. That's often the conflicting feedback that I get. Well, how can
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you say the dollars, you know, not going to be I never said
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that. All I'm saying is that it's unmitigated supremacy is going to be challenged
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and likely reduced, and that reduction will have serious ramifications as a result.
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All right, Well, I guess it's been coming for a long time and
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we shouldn't be too surprised by it. Should wake so, you know,
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kind of ante and I should I didn't really, I guess I step on
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the the big broad perspective there, just to follow up with that and answer
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the rest of your question. I think that the dollar index saw an initial
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sharp sell off into July of last year, and you can count that as
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the first wave or a large A wave and a giant ABC correction, whatever
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you want to turn it from, like an Elliot wave perspective. But when
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you see a big sell off like that after market has been in a bowl
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market for so long, then you often get a very extended and trading range
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bound market in its fee wave or two wave kind of the reaction back towards
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the upside. And I think that's what the dollar has been in for a
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year now that it's it's more congestion, and as I was mentioning with bitcoin
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and gold, they're adjusting to a higher plateau. I think the dollar is
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setting a secondary lower plateau from where it peaked, and that when the time
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is right, you'll start to see another wave of selling and something that starts
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to break more significant support levels and starts to catch the attention of more and
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more of the masses, and then you get that sudden rushing for the exits
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type of thing. From a speculative standpoint, where it's like, oh wait,
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a minute, we just broke multi year support. There's something going on
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here. Oh look, you know there's been this move for ten years now
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to start to unseat the dollar. And why wasn't I paying attention to this
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type of reaction? Yeah? All right, Hey, so interest rates somehow
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fit in with all this, don't they? Yes, they do, And
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I think that they are going to go through a lot of kind of a
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tug of war, a lot of push and pull where right now, I
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don't think that that discussion of the dollar is a big factor in interest rates.
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I will often reiterate to my readers what I call my axiom of market
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correlation, and basically what it says, what it attempts to street is that
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when you have two markets that are typically correlated, first off, you need
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to know which is leading the other at any point in time, because they
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often will alternate leadership. But second, it's usually when the leading market,
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whichever that is, is in a very defined off an accelerated trend, that
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that correlation kicks in. And so what I mean by that is, if
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if you had dollar struggles suddenly prompting the need for interest rates to stay stable
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or hire to try and attract value into the dollar. That would only be
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the case, It would only be a strong correlation if the dollar was really
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in a significant accelerated down trend. And conversely, if you're looking at interest
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rates, if interest rates are leading the way, which they've been more the
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leader over the last few years, and when you have higher interest rates attracting
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or supporting the dollar, as they did up until that late twenty twenty two
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peak, you had the anticipation of higher rates, and then once that starts
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to peak or summits and starts to level off, then you get other factors,
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independent factors of those two correlated markets, exerting a stronger influence. So
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right now, I think that interest rates had their own supporting or influencing factors,
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and they have been showing that after the long decline in bonds that we
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saw from twenty twenty to twenty twenty three, conversely, the long upward move
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in interest rates that they need a decent amount of time, probably a year
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or two of more treating range bound markets up and down as we get the
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competing inflation numbers and economic numbers before you'll see a significant move in interest rates
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either direction. Okay, reasonable, So what about oil energy. What are
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we looking at there? I have been looking at oil from the perspective of
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some fairly significant cycles. I have converging in the middle half of July,
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and my thinking all long has been that that would more likely be a multi
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month low in crude. When we had the sell off of the last month
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or two, I had two primary downside targets for crude. One was right
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around seventy three dollars and then the other was down at sixty nine to seventy
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dollars. Crude plunged right to that seventy three dollars one and then has been
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rebounding ever since. There's a couple of indicators I'm watching that are going to
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be really critical on the week. We closed this week on June twenty eighth,
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and as long as they stay the way they're at right now, crude
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would still maintain the potential head back and retest its lows, maybe spike a
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little lower in that middle July timeframe. But from there I think crude does
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have assuming it follows that scenario, I do think that crude has some future
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upside potential from there, but again, it's at a very critical point in
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an overall cycle in an overall trend where I really need to see it validate
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the remaining part of that analysis or the continuing scenario to play out otherwise,
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and may have to say, Okay, this part of the outlook was wrong,
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and it excuse the outlook for crude for the next three to six months.
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But right now, I think that we could see a pretty significant low
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in July, assuming we get another sell off here in the coming weeks.
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Right, okay, so interesting. So any other markets you think we should
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be paying attention to right now at this point? I think there were really
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some of the primary leading markets. I don't know that anything else really stands
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out at me right now. So I'd say that's a pretty good synopsis of
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the big factors in the market, right Yeah. Well, certainly they're the
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ones that we pay attention to every day, every week, and every month,
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and certainly the most important ones by some reckoning, Although you could debate
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whether metals are that big a deal right now. Do you think that focus
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like on precious metals, once they surpass this intermediate plateau, do you think
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there will be more attention to the sector. I think so, And it's
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a little bit like what I was describing about market correlations and if and when
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the dollar breaks some key support, I think that as gold and silver continue
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to break upside find resistance levels, or in the case of gold, setting
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new highs, that I think that will generate more and more attention. And
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it's funny to me that when you go back to that October twenty twenty two
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time frame, which was also the peak and the dollar index, as you
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said, but was also a multi year cycle low in gold and silver,
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they've had They had very consistent seven year lows in twenty fifteen, twenty eight,
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twenty one, and twenty twenty two was the next phase of that cycle.
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But you had these cycles and a lot of indicators saying, okay,
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we should be entering a multi year up trend in gold and silver, and
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then a few months into it, and then a year into it, you
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start to hear and see the data on particularly China and the household buy of
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gold, and that really underpinning that it wasn't just a reaction for the speculation
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thing. It was a prolonged investment perspective. And at the same time,
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you have the dollar starting to get chipped away at by other nations, and
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you have interest rates peaking, which was helping to support the dollar, and
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you had inflation growing even more. It's kind of this perfect storm for continuing
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to support gold and silver out until my next multi year cycle high, which
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comes into play in twenty twenty six. So I do think that there is
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going to be more attention steadily focused on that as it climbs this wall of
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worry or whatever it may be that is prompting gold and silver to head to
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new highs. I even have some work in platinum and palladium that are showing
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that they should be setting some interim bottoms here and they could see some decent
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moves up into the first part of it next year. So it could be
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a combination of factors that continue to support metals and start to draw more attention
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to them. All Right, And finally, one other question, the impact
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of the present election or its participation in these cycles. Are you seeing any
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particular impact from it. It's funny because I've been over the last couple months
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doing a lot of additional research on longer term cycles in in American elections and
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the shift in party control, and I'm actually putting together an article on that
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in my upcoming July Inside Track Newsletter. But I do think that it's going
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to have a significant impact on a lot of these markets. And there are
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future cycles in stock indexes and markets like the dollar that I think are all
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kind of corroborating that outlook, that scenario. So yes, I do think
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that the election is going to play a key role in a lot of these
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markets. All right, all right, Well we're going to leave it at
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that, So you want to go over to inside Track Trading. That's I
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n sidetrack Trading dot com and check out Eric's work. If you've got a
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question for Eric or myself, please shoot me an email kl at Carrie LUTs
28:07
dot com. You'll find a link to Eric's site in the show notes of
28:11
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Please when you're there, sign
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up for your free newsletter. Eric. It's always a pleasure and we will
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talk to you again soon and get your latest sounded great, Kerry, thanks
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for having me, Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot
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com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever