Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Jobs, Markets, and The Economy

Transcript

Jobs, Markets, and The Economy · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
0:04
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
0:06
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
0:11
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
0:15
Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, so we
0:22
Speaker 1: had the I s M number come in a little
0:27
Speaker 1: bit of a disappointment there. Um, the jobs number was
0:31
Speaker 1: a little bit of a disappointment to four and thirty
0:33
Speaker 1: one thousand. We were looking for four ninety although still
0:36
Speaker 1: um solid, robust is the word being used, and we
0:40
Speaker 1: had an upward revision last month. But as Katie, as
0:44
Speaker 1: you pointed out earlier, the UH two's ten still inverted?
0:47
Speaker 1: Is it still inverted? Still inverted? Oh mg? Sarah House
0:50
Speaker 1: joins us right now, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities. Sarah,
0:55
Speaker 1: we are terrified now because you know, the yield curve
0:59
Speaker 1: was able to predict the pandemic before we even knew
1:02
Speaker 1: COVID existed. What is it telling us now? I told
1:06
Speaker 1: us a little about the potential for a recession over
1:09
Speaker 1: the past cycle or so, especially given the feeds involvement
1:13
Speaker 1: in in asset purchases. And I think one of the
1:16
Speaker 1: things we learned from today's employment report is that even
1:19
Speaker 1: as we have some moderation and growth, momentum overall remains
1:23
Speaker 1: strong in the US economy. So I think there's still
1:26
Speaker 1: a lot more growth to be squeezed out out of
1:28
Speaker 1: the economy before we need to get too worried about
1:30
Speaker 1: recession fears. Right now, Okay, so growth to be still
1:33
Speaker 1: squeezed out of the economy. What about the labor market?
1:36
Speaker 1: Because again Headline disappointed, there were definitely some bright spots
1:40
Speaker 1: in their net net. What is your takeaway net net?
1:45
Speaker 1: I think this is a still solid report. So yes,
1:47
Speaker 1: it was a little bit lighter than expectations, but you know,
1:51
Speaker 1: only by roughly sixty versus of the Bloomberg insensus, So
1:54
Speaker 1: that's not a big miss in the grand scheme of
1:57
Speaker 1: the post COVID recovery. And I think in certainly it
2:01
Speaker 1: showed that we still have pretty decent momentum. So you
2:03
Speaker 1: have to remember this is a much cleaner read on
2:06
Speaker 1: the underlying trend and hiring. So in January that number
2:10
Speaker 1: was boosted by some really favorable seasonal factors. February was
2:15
Speaker 1: likely reflecting a bounced back of the amicron waves that
2:18
Speaker 1: was hidden by those those favorable seasonal factories in January.
2:22
Speaker 1: So we're still seeing a real solid pace of of hiring,
2:26
Speaker 1: and importantly, it's still strong enough to keep that labor
2:29
Speaker 1: market tightening even as you have more workers coming back
2:32
Speaker 1: into the labor force. Yeah, we see wages up five
2:34
Speaker 1: point six percent year over year. That's a number I
2:38
Speaker 1: like to see as high as possible, Sarah, because I
2:41
Speaker 1: love it when people get paid more. But are we
2:44
Speaker 1: going to start hearing people worry about a price wage spiral?
2:50
Speaker 1: I think, if anything, some of those fears have have
2:53
Speaker 1: abated a little bit over the past couple of months. So, yes,
2:56
Speaker 1: you're seeing wages up five point six percent over the here,
3:00
Speaker 1: but if you look at what the recent trend is,
3:03
Speaker 1: so over the past three months, average hourly earnings have
3:07
Speaker 1: increased at a four and a half percent annualized rates,
3:10
Speaker 1: we're actually seeing a little bit of moderation. And this
3:13
Speaker 1: fits with the fact that while overall demand for workers
3:16
Speaker 1: remains really strong, that the pace of increase in that
3:19
Speaker 1: demand has has really leveled off. So you know, from
3:23
Speaker 1: from outright standpoint, demand remains strong, but it's not increasing
3:27
Speaker 1: without abandoned. So I think that's keeping employers perhaps a
3:30
Speaker 1: little bit more um. They're they're able to perhaps um
3:35
Speaker 1: not to raise wages at such a frenzied pace and
3:38
Speaker 1: and hopefully prevent that that wage price file. Let me
3:42
Speaker 1: ask you to be so dangerous. Let me ask you
3:44
Speaker 1: kind of a political question, Um, are the wage increases
3:48
Speaker 1: keeping up with inflation? I mean, it's not really a
3:50
Speaker 1: political question, right, it's a matter of fact, depending on
3:53
Speaker 1: which indexes you look at. Yeah, I'd say that's more
3:57
Speaker 1: of a mathematical question. So whether you're looking at the
4:00
Speaker 1: PC deflator, the CPI on an average hourly earnings basis, no,
4:05
Speaker 1: they're not keeping up for the typical worker. But I
4:08
Speaker 1: think you have to take take into consideration the fact
4:12
Speaker 1: that we've added so many jobs over the past year.
4:15
Speaker 1: So we've added six and a half million jobs, and
4:17
Speaker 1: so when you look at the aggregate income being derived
4:20
Speaker 1: from the labor market, it is enough to outpace inflation.
4:23
Speaker 1: And so that's limiting or at least blendings on the
4:27
Speaker 1: impact of the fiscal support of stride up and what
4:31
Speaker 1: that means for real household income um over over the
4:35
Speaker 1: coming months. So it is certainly tight for you know,
4:38
Speaker 1: for individual workers and individual households. But in terms of
4:41
Speaker 1: the aggregate income picture, the fact that we're adding so
4:45
Speaker 1: many jobs is supporting the overall income outlook. Well, Sarah,
4:49
Speaker 1: I am going to ask you political questions since we
4:51
Speaker 1: are awaiting remarks from President Biden on today's numbers. Curious
4:55
Speaker 1: how you think the administration is probably reacting to some
4:59
Speaker 1: of the figures we saw this morning. So I think
5:03
Speaker 1: in as I said, I mean, overall, this is a
5:05
Speaker 1: pretty decent report. So we see that the labor market
5:08
Speaker 1: continues to tighten. We're getting more workers back into the
5:11
Speaker 1: labor force, so that's signaling that they are able and
5:15
Speaker 1: willing to work. And so I think this is this
5:17
Speaker 1: is still strong, strong report, even if we did see
5:20
Speaker 1: that that pace of hiring temper versus versus the past
5:24
Speaker 1: few months, and we'd expect that pace of hiring to
5:26
Speaker 1: just slow as we get into a more mature phase
5:29
Speaker 1: of the recovery. Sarah, Um, just just looking at inflation
5:35
Speaker 1: here looking out, are you sanguine that it's going to
5:40
Speaker 1: come back down as we get into um, you know,
5:44
Speaker 1: as we get into the base effects of what we
5:46
Speaker 1: saw at the end of last year. So the base
5:49
Speaker 1: effects will certainly help, but I think it's still going
5:52
Speaker 1: to be pretty painful over you know, the next year
5:55
Speaker 1: year and a half or so. So we're still looking
5:58
Speaker 1: for the core PC deflator, so you know, kind of
6:00
Speaker 1: level setting with with the fence two percent target. So
6:04
Speaker 1: we still expect that to be around four and a
6:06
Speaker 1: half percent at the end of this year. So while
6:09
Speaker 1: we're probably close to a peak um here in the
6:11
Speaker 1: next month or two, a lot of that depends on
6:13
Speaker 1: just what happens with the oil and gasoline prices. We're
6:16
Speaker 1: still looking at a pretty painful rate of inflation for
6:20
Speaker 1: consumers and for policymakers for that matter. All Right, Sarah,
6:24
Speaker 1: great to get um your inside. Thank you so much
6:26
Speaker 1: for joining us. Always a pleasure talking to you. Sarah
6:28
Speaker 1: House there, senior economist over at Wells Fargo Securities. I
6:36
Speaker 1: am sitting in the interactive broker studio with four unmasked people.
6:41
Speaker 1: It's amazing. It brings a tear of joy to my eye. Um,
6:46
Speaker 1: Lisa Brahmowitz and Tom Keene in here at Bloomberg Surveillance Fame.
6:50
Speaker 1: Katie Greifeld she'll be famous someday for Bloomberg et f
6:56
Speaker 1: i Q. That's a show that we co host together. Actually,
6:58
Speaker 1: thank you every Monday on one PM. That's the middle
7:01
Speaker 1: of surveillance NAP. I had quite a rudening route awakening,
7:07
Speaker 1: I should say. Last week. You guys are all apartment dwellers, right,
7:11
Speaker 1: you all live in the city. I got a gas
7:14
Speaker 1: bill for five hundred and fifty dollars natural gas for
7:17
Speaker 1: the month that I wasn't really counting on, and I
7:20
Speaker 1: just thought, yeah, that that kind of thing can throw
7:23
Speaker 1: a real wrench into your finances. And the reason I
7:26
Speaker 1: bring it up is because overnight in the UK the
7:29
Speaker 1: cap was lifted on the natural gas um for residential customers.
7:33
Speaker 1: Their bills are going to go up more than fifty
7:35
Speaker 1: percent overnight. That for a lot of people can drive
7:39
Speaker 1: you into poverty. That can cross the line. And this
7:41
Speaker 1: is what we're talking about earlier, which is the new
7:43
Speaker 1: inflation is frankly a memory for those with a bit
7:46
Speaker 1: of gray hair of the frenzy we lived in where
7:49
Speaker 1: it was item to item. I looked at cheese pizza
7:51
Speaker 1: slices today, But like you say, it's utilities as well,
7:55
Speaker 1: and certainly every report we have from Europe is as
7:58
Speaker 1: grim as the appropriate word, and not just Europe. In
8:01
Speaker 1: Sri Lanka, I saw there were uh riots, people gathered
8:06
Speaker 1: around the palace. Social issue in Indonesia. This is really serious.
8:11
Speaker 1: And this is where you get into this word controls
8:13
Speaker 1: or you have price controls and such. And it goes
8:15
Speaker 1: back to Lisa. This goes back to Japan and y
8:18
Speaker 1: CC yield curve controls. It is institutions trying to control
8:23
Speaker 1: whatever cards are dealt right now. The big card is
8:26
Speaker 1: inflation and then of course how much people are getting
8:29
Speaker 1: paid and how that dovetails into it in otherwids can
8:31
Speaker 1: they afford it? And okay, if they kind of afford it,
8:35
Speaker 1: and this is sort of the big fear. Does that
8:37
Speaker 1: mean that companies will just keep jacking up prices more?
8:40
Speaker 1: I mean, yes, you're getting the like that's the spiral, right.
8:43
Speaker 1: I wonder how much of this average hourly wage growth
8:46
Speaker 1: real people see? I mean, how many times a year
8:49
Speaker 1: do you get a raise if you're um an hourly worker? Actually,
8:53
Speaker 1: you know what? I will take the other side of that.
8:55
Speaker 1: There have been a number of reports about how Amazon
8:58
Speaker 1: other manufacturing kinds of jobs, other areas where there's scarcity
9:02
Speaker 1: of labor, they're actually getting quarterly raises. There even some
9:06
Speaker 1: places you're starting to see doing away of the annual
9:10
Speaker 1: review and a regular pace of increases in doing the
9:14
Speaker 1: way of the annual review. That's music to my ears. No,
9:17
Speaker 1: but I mean I've heard of this time. I mean honestly,
9:20
Speaker 1: I we hear about it all the time and how
9:22
Speaker 1: much wages are going up. To me, I have a
9:24
Speaker 1: daily review with alf New Jersey. No, it does not
9:29
Speaker 1: most definitely not lucky. The badge works the next day.
9:33
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's been a crazy march. It's it's
9:35
Speaker 1: truly an historic quarter. And as I said to Lisa
9:38
Speaker 1: eight hours ago, the measurement of uncertainty into this April
9:43
Speaker 1: is we're where we were in January. We have no
9:45
Speaker 1: clue what's coming. Well, I just am concerned about the inflation.
9:49
Speaker 1: And a client wrote in this morning and said, could
9:53
Speaker 1: this be, you know, the beginning of a new Arab
9:55
Speaker 1: spring where we start to see real uh social str
10:00
Speaker 1: life when it comes to rising prices. Imagine if you
10:04
Speaker 1: imagine you're in the UK, you're someone barely above the
10:06
Speaker 1: poverty line, and all of a sudden, your monthly gas bill,
10:09
Speaker 1: which you have to pay to power your appliances and
10:12
Speaker 1: heat your home goes up. Let's not conflate all inflation
10:16
Speaker 1: as the same. Right, The Arab spring is partly because
10:19
Speaker 1: of the idea of Ukraine and what's going on there
10:21
Speaker 1: with the wheat output, the idea that a lot of
10:23
Speaker 1: that goes directly to Northern Africa, goes to some of
10:27
Speaker 1: these areas that are less privileged, So you're gonna see
10:30
Speaker 1: wheat prices surge. You're seeing oil and gas prices surge
10:33
Speaker 1: in certain places on the heels of what's going on
10:35
Speaker 1: all all places, in all places in the US. It
10:39
Speaker 1: is a unique story because they're also is wage inflation.
10:44
Speaker 1: There's also positive signs, and it's stemming not just from
10:47
Speaker 1: the stiflationary shock that we're seeing out of Europe. And
10:51
Speaker 1: I think that that's an important distinction. There's not much
10:54
Speaker 1: going on. We have fourteen and a half percent nominal
10:56
Speaker 1: GDP last quarter. This court will be half that. I
11:01
Speaker 1: like what Neil Irwin said over to Exios in the hour.
11:03
Speaker 1: He said, this is a boom economy. It's a boom
11:06
Speaker 1: economy for everyone. No, it never is, but look around
11:10
Speaker 1: New York City, right now, I mean rents are ridiculous.
11:13
Speaker 1: The home price I I, at least I can't get
11:16
Speaker 1: used to home prices. No, that's also not the case.
11:21
Speaker 1: It's also not just a US problem, right, that's another
11:24
Speaker 1: problem that you see, at least in the UK and
11:26
Speaker 1: in Germany. Um, I think prices rising are more painful
11:31
Speaker 1: than maybe do you think even if wages are coming up?
11:34
Speaker 1: And I think, um, when I when I hear about
11:37
Speaker 1: the boom economy, I wonder, then how come recession odds
11:41
Speaker 1: are so high for next years? Katie, question Katie. The
11:45
Speaker 1: path for those younger is you live with four people
11:49
Speaker 1: in Chelsea or the Lower East Side, and then you
11:53
Speaker 1: live with two people, and then there's that big jump
11:56
Speaker 1: where you live with yourself. Someday I'll live in Brooklyn.
11:59
Speaker 1: If hip and cool and all that is that broken
12:04
Speaker 1: with this New York City inflation, that path, It's interesting.
12:08
Speaker 1: I was having a conversation with a friend my age.
12:10
Speaker 1: It's okay, it's surveillance. You can say I was having
12:12
Speaker 1: a conversation in a bar with a friend of mine. Okay,
12:15
Speaker 1: we're actually a rooftop bar. It was lovely. The weather
12:19
Speaker 1: wasn't as terrible as it is now. But she moved
12:21
Speaker 1: to London after college to work at a bank over there,
12:24
Speaker 1: and she would like to come back to the US.
12:26
Speaker 1: But she was saying, I am almost thirty. I don't
12:30
Speaker 1: want to live with a room. Are you ready for this?
12:32
Speaker 1: But that's the only way that I can live in
12:35
Speaker 1: New York. I can't believe I say I'm saying this.
12:38
Speaker 1: Paris was cheap. I can't believe I'm saying that Europe
12:42
Speaker 1: right now. That was her point. My quality of life
12:45
Speaker 1: in London is so much higher than it would be
12:48
Speaker 1: in New York. This is a huge deal for Mayor Adams.
12:51
Speaker 1: It's very true you left the city. Well, look, I
12:55
Speaker 1: just moved from Berlin. Childcare is free to Scarsdale, where
13:00
Speaker 1: it's going to cost me three grand amuntiple by kid
13:02
Speaker 1: in a basement. You know, oh crime a river in Scarsdale.
13:06
Speaker 1: I mean, into all honesty, okay, this is like, you know,
13:08
Speaker 1: top tier. You just hold on a second. I mean
13:13
Speaker 1: it's somebody who raised your kids in the city. And
13:16
Speaker 1: I will be honest. You're right, You're not wrong to
13:18
Speaker 1: bring this up, So I'm not I'm not undercutting this issue.
13:21
Speaker 1: There is a larger point here, and this is what
13:23
Speaker 1: I'm wrapping my head around right now, So I apologize
13:26
Speaker 1: because you're all my guinea pigs and what I'm trying
13:28
Speaker 1: to think about. But that actually one of the biggest
13:31
Speaker 1: good things that could happen in the U. S. Economy
13:33
Speaker 1: that could keep the boom economy that you're talking about,
13:35
Speaker 1: Tom going, would be a profit margins strike. Basically if
13:40
Speaker 1: companies paid employees more and then just took it out
13:45
Speaker 1: of their profits rather than passing it along to consumers,
13:49
Speaker 1: so you actually got a better living because you're not
13:53
Speaker 1: paying that much more. But we see from the earnings
13:56
Speaker 1: reports that they are passing a consumers exactly who are
13:59
Speaker 1: being order in the stock market, well, I mean the
14:01
Speaker 1: stock market. Basically the stock market is not the not
14:04
Speaker 1: the economy, and vice versa. And at the stock markets
14:07
Speaker 1: benefited the economy's lag behind. Are we seeing a reversal
14:10
Speaker 1: of that? Not quite yet, but could we. Tobb's looking
14:13
Speaker 1: at me like, go just jump off a bridge. I
14:16
Speaker 1: don't know if that's going to be a good thing.
14:18
Speaker 1: If she said that with me and Pharaoll early in
14:20
Speaker 1: the morning, we'd be apoplectic. I'm just I just am
14:25
Speaker 1: surprised by the optimism here. Let's bring in Rebecca Ray
14:31
Speaker 1: right now. She joins us from the conference board, where
14:34
Speaker 1: she is executive vice president of Human Capital. Rebecca, let
14:38
Speaker 1: me first get your take on the job's number. Um,
14:41
Speaker 1: what does it mean to you as you passed through
14:43
Speaker 1: the data? Good morning and thanks for having me Um.
14:49
Speaker 1: You know, I think it's very encouraging. We've got another
14:51
Speaker 1: strong report. We're closing the gap on the number of
14:56
Speaker 1: jobs that we lost since the pandemic hit US, and
14:58
Speaker 1: I think all that's very encouraging. There's some very bright spots.
15:02
Speaker 1: I think we've got a tightening labor market and people
15:05
Speaker 1: who want to to work or having I think some
15:08
Speaker 1: some good luck in finding positions. You see wages rising
15:12
Speaker 1: in many industries, So I think there's a there's a
15:15
Speaker 1: that's a great deal to be to be pleased with.
15:17
Speaker 1: But I think at the point that you just made, UM,
15:20
Speaker 1: some of that may be mitigated by rising inflation, and
15:24
Speaker 1: so that's that's going to play that's going to play
15:27
Speaker 1: into this as well. And we're back on the topic
15:29
Speaker 1: of the labor market. The conference Sport has a new
15:32
Speaker 1: survey out on work life Balanced Struggles, and I want
15:35
Speaker 1: to hear about this. What your findings found because it's
15:39
Speaker 1: been an interesting labor market and that it took a
15:42
Speaker 1: long time to fill that whole and employment because you know,
15:46
Speaker 1: we're it feels like workers have had more, say, more power.
15:50
Speaker 1: But what did your survey find? Yes, so we just
15:56
Speaker 1: are about to release it today and I'm pleased to
15:59
Speaker 1: to share a bit about what we found. You know,
16:01
Speaker 1: I think in these last couple of years, certainly everyone
16:04
Speaker 1: has had their own particular reaction to the events of
16:08
Speaker 1: the world and what they did in terms of their
16:10
Speaker 1: work arrangements. But there are many who are very concerned
16:14
Speaker 1: that during that time, the work and the life, the
16:18
Speaker 1: boundaries get very blurred, and some of that hasn't necessarily
16:21
Speaker 1: shaken back out. And in fact, some of the concerns
16:24
Speaker 1: that we UH that we saw among both those who
16:27
Speaker 1: are fully remote and those who are UH and and
16:31
Speaker 1: hybrid you know, sometimes in the workplace and sometimes not
16:34
Speaker 1: as well as those who are full time, they're all
16:36
Speaker 1: a little concerned about blurred boundaries. I think the balance,
16:41
Speaker 1: the pendulum will swing eventually, but I think a lot
16:44
Speaker 1: of people are concerned that the advent of technology, regardless
16:47
Speaker 1: of the way in which you work, is going to
16:49
Speaker 1: mean that people are going to expect the continuation of
16:52
Speaker 1: being always on, always available, and particularly for those who
16:56
Speaker 1: are fully remote workers, that's a real concern. Yeah, because
17:00
Speaker 1: remote workers we hear often that they put in more time,
17:05
Speaker 1: um than those who come to the office. How does
17:08
Speaker 1: this return to work thing than pan out? Rebecca, What
17:11
Speaker 1: do you think? Are we just looking at a hybrid
17:13
Speaker 1: model for the future. Do we ever go back to
17:15
Speaker 1: the old days of you just come in from you know,
17:17
Speaker 1: eight to six every day, five days a week. How
17:21
Speaker 1: does it? How does it turn out? You know, I
17:24
Speaker 1: think most most of us begin to feel that they're
17:28
Speaker 1: going to be in a hybrid situation of some type
17:30
Speaker 1: or another for a very long time. I think the
17:33
Speaker 1: game has permanently shifted. And I know that in this
17:36
Speaker 1: latest survey, those who are millennials in particular, very concerned
17:41
Speaker 1: about the increased cost of commuting. Many workers have found
17:46
Speaker 1: that they made great strides in work life integration and
17:50
Speaker 1: they're reluctant to give that back now. You know, companies
17:53
Speaker 1: will argue that they need to come back to the
17:55
Speaker 1: workplace because they're concerned about you know, the absence of
17:59
Speaker 1: network working and building relationships that it's going to have
18:02
Speaker 1: an impact on collaboration that their culture will suffer. I
18:05
Speaker 1: think those are all valid reasons. I think employees workers
18:09
Speaker 1: tend to agree that those are some really valid reasons
18:11
Speaker 1: for going. But I think we need to begin to
18:14
Speaker 1: think about the workplace, the physical workplace as sort of
18:17
Speaker 1: the way we used to think about an off site.
18:19
Speaker 1: You know, you planned for an off site, you knew
18:21
Speaker 1: when it was happening. There was a reason to go.
18:22
Speaker 1: You had expectations, but what was going to be accomplished.
18:25
Speaker 1: Give workers a reason to return to the workplace. It
18:29
Speaker 1: isn't simply about returning to the way things were checking
18:32
Speaker 1: a box. Make it about celebrating your accomplishments, or understanding
18:37
Speaker 1: a new product launch and how you're gonna be successful
18:39
Speaker 1: in the marketplace. Make it about developmental opportunities. To be
18:42
Speaker 1: intentional about it. But give give a really good reason
18:45
Speaker 1: for coming back, not simply let's just get back to normal,
18:48
Speaker 1: because I think those days are gone. Rebecca, thanks so
18:51
Speaker 1: much for joining us. Great to get your insight. As always,
18:53
Speaker 1: Rebecca Ray, their executive vice president at the conference board,
19:01
Speaker 1: Let's continue to talk about the jobs numbers. Then with
19:05
Speaker 1: Tom Gimbal, founder and CEO of the sound network when
19:09
Speaker 1: of leading staffing firms, UH the biggest staffing firms in
19:13
Speaker 1: the country. Tom, thanks so much for joining us. I
19:16
Speaker 1: gotta ask first about UM, the people you're placing. Are
19:19
Speaker 1: they getting paid a lot more? Well, they're getting paid more.
19:22
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it that this market is what
19:25
Speaker 1: people are seeing is talent is hard to come by.
19:27
Speaker 1: There is a labor shortage. We have yet to place
19:30
Speaker 1: anybody for two and twelve million dollars. That would be
19:32
Speaker 1: quite a fee, um. But but overall we're seeing it.
19:36
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's not usually you say, oh, in
19:39
Speaker 1: the tech based developers, elite sales people, things like that,
19:44
Speaker 1: But in this market, people are getting five sometimes increases
19:50
Speaker 1: when they make moves. And are they also demanding Tom
19:55
Speaker 1: to work from home or to be able to UM
20:00
Speaker 1: or to not be required to go to the office
20:02
Speaker 1: five days a week. Well, that's the interesting thing is
20:05
Speaker 1: now more and more companies are moving away from fully
20:09
Speaker 1: remote and looking for people who are within a commuting
20:12
Speaker 1: distance for some sort of hybrid. The more unique the
20:16
Speaker 1: skill set or UH in high demand and individual is,
20:20
Speaker 1: the more preference they have. But we're not seeing that
20:24
Speaker 1: to be a big deal. What you are seeing is
20:26
Speaker 1: people won't even listen to a job. If something there
20:29
Speaker 1: are people who want remote so badly they won't even listen.
20:32
Speaker 1: It's not something that comes up in the negotiation. If
20:34
Speaker 1: you're going into interview for a job, you're under the
20:37
Speaker 1: assumption that usually it's gonna be a hybrid at the
20:40
Speaker 1: very least, unless they're telling you upfront. So what does
20:44
Speaker 1: this report? Then? If you step back, Tom and look
20:47
Speaker 1: at this report from the thirty five thousand of you, Um,
20:50
Speaker 1: how does it look to you? It looks fantastic. If
20:53
Speaker 1: I would have said to somebody a year ago, uh,
20:56
Speaker 1: that twelve months later we'd have our twelfth consecutive month
20:59
Speaker 1: of over four a thousand jobs, Unemployment would be at
21:02
Speaker 1: three point six percent UM and uh, the wages would
21:06
Speaker 1: be increased and the participation rate would be increased. Everyone
21:09
Speaker 1: would say, sign me up for that program. And if
21:12
Speaker 1: the economists had predicted four thousand jobs instead of five thousand,
21:15
Speaker 1: we'd be doing backflips, right, you know. The the the
21:18
Speaker 1: economists get to get the judge statistically what they think
21:21
Speaker 1: will happen, and us on on main Street, we're actually
21:24
Speaker 1: doing the heavy lifting. And this job market is still
21:27
Speaker 1: as good as I've ever seen, and we're seeing the
21:29
Speaker 1: CEOs I'm talking to every single day. They're they're not
21:33
Speaker 1: worried about the Ukraine, they're not worried about Russia. As
21:35
Speaker 1: far as what's going on, they only have one fear,
21:37
Speaker 1: and that's inflation. And and that's where I think we
21:40
Speaker 1: should be really focusing our concerned domestically. Yeah, I mean, um,
21:46
Speaker 1: it's okay for now. I guess as as companies pass
21:51
Speaker 1: on inflation to consumers, they're able to increase wages. But
21:55
Speaker 1: how long can that last. You're gonna be in a
21:59
Speaker 1: in a real tough situation. And I don't want to
22:01
Speaker 1: be the doomsday guy. I think we're gonna be in
22:03
Speaker 1: a really good market for the next twenty four to
22:05
Speaker 1: thirty six months. However, you get people that are renting
22:09
Speaker 1: places and buying places, uh, based on an inflated salary,
22:14
Speaker 1: and you hit a real recession. And what we had
22:17
Speaker 1: wasn't a recession, it was a blip, you know. Two
22:19
Speaker 1: thousand one, h two thousand nine, those were recessions. You
22:23
Speaker 1: get that situation. People aren't gonna be able to pay
22:26
Speaker 1: those rents and people are buying above their means. So
22:29
Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit about inflation that continues
22:32
Speaker 1: at this rate. Uh. And it's gotta it's gotta impact
22:36
Speaker 1: commutes as well. Right, This is something that I guess employers,
22:41
Speaker 1: or at least many employers are paying. Yeah. It's an
22:44
Speaker 1: interesting dynamic, man, because what you have right now are
22:48
Speaker 1: people that want to work from home or they want
22:49
Speaker 1: subsidies to come in. But then they also want their
22:52
Speaker 1: Walgreens to be open seven, They want the stores to
22:56
Speaker 1: deliver all the time, they want the products on the shelves,
22:59
Speaker 1: they want their athletes and spring training. You know, white
23:02
Speaker 1: collar workers have a very um selfish view from time
23:06
Speaker 1: to time about what should be remote work and what
23:09
Speaker 1: shouldn't be. And I'm I'm a firm believer that if
23:12
Speaker 1: we want society to come back, we want inflation low,
23:15
Speaker 1: uh at at a lower rate. We've got to make
23:17
Speaker 1: sure that we can get the dry cleaners back open
23:20
Speaker 1: in the sundry stores, and and people going back into
23:23
Speaker 1: the office because that goes to auto repair shops and
23:26
Speaker 1: keeps the gasoline prices lower and and all of those
23:29
Speaker 1: things that fuel the economy. So you can't you can't
23:31
Speaker 1: have your cake and eat it too. Yeah, you should
23:33
Speaker 1: see the I mean the stores around here in Midtown Manhattan,
23:36
Speaker 1: which is an office society or an office culture, half
23:42
Speaker 1: of them are still closed. It's just unbelievable because you know,
23:45
Speaker 1: the entire workforce that used to supply all these delays
23:49
Speaker 1: with the revenue, UM, has just stayed in Long Island,
23:52
Speaker 1: New Jersey or Westchester rather than coming in and and
23:55
Speaker 1: buying sandwiches. So yeah, I I totally understand what you're saying. Um,
24:00
Speaker 1: do you think about the possibility of a wage price spiral?
24:03
Speaker 1: Are you concerned about that? Our employers concerned about that? No?
24:07
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think right now things are
24:09
Speaker 1: gonna things are starting to level off a little bit.
24:12
Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting because you know, every May, June, July,
24:15
Speaker 1: we've got recent college graduates and none of the workforce,
24:18
Speaker 1: and those salaries are a lot higher, it looks like
24:20
Speaker 1: coming out than they were a year and two years ago. Um,
24:24
Speaker 1: you know, the worst time to have come out was
24:26
Speaker 1: in right, wages were really low. They've jumped up now
24:30
Speaker 1: this year that they're they're a lot more. But I
24:32
Speaker 1: don't think anything is gonna be too crazy, all right, Tom,
24:35
Speaker 1: Great to get your take as usual, Tom, gimbal Is,
24:38
Speaker 1: the founder and CEO of the Sound Network, talking to
24:40
Speaker 1: us about the jobs report. Thanks for listening to the
24:44
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
24:48
Speaker 1: with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
24:53
Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller. Yet on
24:57
Speaker 1: Fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before of
25:00
Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radient.
25:03
Speaker 1: M