Latest / The 5G Podcast with Fexingo: Wireless Networks, Carriers, and Mobile Infrastructure / How Fixed Wireless Access Is Reshaping Broadband
Transcript
- Lucas: You know, I was looking at the latest broadband numbers this morning, and one number jumped out: fixed wireless access now accounts for nearly 10 percent of U.S. home internet subscriptions. Luna: That's a big jump from just a couple years ago. I remember when FWA was mostly a niche product for rural areas. Lucas: Exactly. And the shift has been driven almost entirely by T-Mobile and Verizon using their 5G networks. They've added something like 4 million FWA subscribers combined in the last year alone. Luna: So what's changed? Is it the network technology, or the pricing, or both? Lucas: It's really the mid-band spectrum they've rolled out. T-Mobile's 2.5 gigahertz holdings, plus the C-band that Verizon and AT&T lit up in 2023 — those frequencies offer a sweet spot of coverage and capacity. You can deliver real home internet speeds without stringing fiber to every house. Luna: Right, because the old fixed wireless on 4G was too slow to compete with cable. Now we're seeing advertised speeds of 100 to 300 megabits per second. That's competitive. Lucas: It's more than competitive for a lot of households. The average U.S. household uses about 500 gigabytes per month — streaming, gaming, video calls. FWA can handle that, especially if the carrier manages the network well. Luna: But there's a catch, right? Capacity. If too many people in one area sign up, the tower gets congested. Lucas: That's the big question. Carriers are banking on the fact that FWA subscribers use less data during peak hours than mobile users. They can prioritize. But analysts at New Street Research have warned that if FWA penetration hits 15 to 20 percent in a given cell sector, performance could degrade noticeably. Luna: So it's a balancing act. Sign up too many home internet customers, and you risk your mobile network quality. Lucas: Exactly. And that's why Verizon has been more cautious than T-Mobile. Verizon's C-band deployment is still ramping, and they're protecting their premium mobile user base. T-Mobile has more spectrum capacity right now, so they've been more aggressive. Luna: I saw T-Mobile added 900,000 FWA subscribers in the first quarter of 2026 alone. They're aiming for 10 million total by 2028. Lucas: And they're not alone. AT&T has started quietly offering FWA in select markets, though they're more focused on fiber. But the cable companies are definitely feeling the pressure. Luna: Comcast and Charter have lost broadband subscribers for several quarters now. Some of that loss is to fiber, but a chunk is definitely FWA. Lucas: Yeah, Comcast reported a net loss of 65,000 residential broadband customers in Q1 2026. Charter lost 77,000. Those numbers would have been unthinkable five years ago. Luna: So FWA is real. But is it a long-term threat or just a temporary disruption until fiber catches up? Lucas: I think it depends on the economics. Deploying fiber costs about $1,000 per passing on average, sometimes more in rural areas. FWA costs the carrier maybe $300 per subscriber for the customer-premises equipment, and no trenching. Luna: So the carriers can undercut cable on price and still make money. T-Mobile's FWA average revenue per user is around $50 a month — similar to cable but with lower acquisition costs. Lucas: Right. And that's the disruptive part. Cable's whole business model relies on high margins from broadband to subsidize video losses. If FWA keeps growing, cable margins compress. Luna: But what about the technology ceiling? FWA speeds today are good, but fiber can offer symmetrical gigabit speeds. As demand for upload bandwidth grows — think video conferencing, cloud backups, user-generated content — won't fiber win? Lucas: For high-end users, absolutely. But the median household doesn't need gigabit symmetrical. They need reliable 100 megabit download and 10 megabit upload. FWA can deliver that today, and with 5G-Advanced and eventually 6G, it'll get better. Luna: I've also heard that some carriers are using a mix: FWA for suburban and rural, fiber for dense urban and business parks. Lucas: That's exactly what Verizon is doing with their 'fiber plus wireless' strategy. They're expanding FiOS in some areas while using FWA as a faster, cheaper alternative in others. It's a hybrid approach. Luna: What about the cable response? They're not sitting still. Comcast has been rolling out DOCSIS 4.0, which can deliver multi-gig speeds over coax. Lucas: True, but DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades still cost money — maybe $200 per passing. And they're competing against carriers who already have the spectrum deployed. The cable companies are also losing the marketing battle: people like the idea of '5G home internet' even if the actual performance is similar. Luna: So is there any scenario where FWA fails to scale? Like if usage patterns change dramatically. Lucas: If the metaverse takes off and every household wants a VR headset streaming 8K video, sure, FWA might not cut it. But we're not there yet. For the next five years, FWA looks like a durable competitor. Luna: What about competition from satellite? Starlink is improving, but it's still expensive and has latency issues. Lucas: Starlink is great for truly remote areas, but at $120 a month plus $600 for the dish, it's not a mass-market product. FWA can be $50 a month with no upfront cost. That's a different league. Luna: So the bottom line: fixed wireless access is not a fringe technology anymore. It's a mainstream broadband option that's reshaping the competitive landscape. Lucas: Absolutely. And the interesting thing is that this is happening quietly. No single headline-grabbing event — just steady subscriber gains quarter after quarter. By the end of 2026, FWA could be 12 percent of the market. Luna: And that means lower prices for consumers, better service in underserved areas, and real pressure on incumbents to innovate. That's a pretty good outcome. Lucas: It is. But the question I keep coming back to is: what happens when the low-hanging fruit is picked? When every suburban home that could be covered by FWA already has it, will the carriers invest in fiber to the remaining homes, or will they just milk the FWA base? Luna: That's the next frontier. And maybe a topic for another episode. Lucas: I think so. For now, it's clear that 5G's biggest impact on the home internet market is just beginning.