Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Best NFL Divisional Round

Transcript

Best Best NFL Divisional Round · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Divisional Round Best Bets episode. This
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: is the episode where we will get feedback from the
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: wise guys who listen to the show. We will build
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: our money line underdog Parlay. We will get to our
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: fox hole in Big Balls Bet of the Week. We
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: will narrow down our favorite NFL picks, of which there
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: can only be four because there's only four games for
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the entire NFL Playoffs slates. As our old pal Colin
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: Coward likes to say, there's a ce money out.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: There, because there's a sea of money out there.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: you can check them out in the award winning Action
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Network app by following the Favorites podcast. Let's bring in
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Micha and Padre my BFF
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter. Eto's how I'm in?
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: Hello, I shout how are we doing? Brother dude?
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: It's got check time.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: We got seven games left Saturday Sunday.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: I'm running out of.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Reasons to sit on the couch and say that I'm
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: working for days on end. I already feel lost about
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Thursday nights. After this weekend, I don't know what I'm
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: going to do with myself. That's how I feel, poor, Chat.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: I can help you if you need to.
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: The greatest excuse ever is coming up is the draft.
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: Be like, honey, I need to scout these quarterbacks for
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: the draft. I mean, there's no better time for nerds.
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: It's another reason to be like, Hey, I'm busy until April.
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: I gotta I really got to dive into this draft,
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: especially you got the number one pick, Chat, you got
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: to act like you're a scout for your own team.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: You got you got a plethora of excuses.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: Don't you look at to you going back to the plethora?
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: Wow?
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Did you give her a shout out? Lucy?
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: She's one of her favorite words? She was like, can
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: you please use it more often? It's like, I'll force
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: it in there.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Guy.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: You know eventually you're gonna have to flip the page
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: on your word of the calendar.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just you can't just leave it on whatever. Take platform.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Fact, It's true, though, the Bears will not be able
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: to make a decision until I weigh in and whether
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: or not we should keep Justin Fields, which continues to
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: be a conversation in my house even last night. My
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: son and I went to Gamble Pavilion on Yukon's campus
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: to watch the number one ranked Yukon Huskies, and during
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: the game we were still talking about Justin Fields and
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams Simon Lanter are bouncing around some in the
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: wrong direction from what we wanted based on our Tuesday convo,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: so we'll have to dig into that before we get
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: to all of that. A quick programming note, if you
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: aren't paying attention, lean a little bit closer to your
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: radio dial and focus. We have two final Sunday Night
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: recap episodes left. We are going to do both of
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: those immediately after the last game concludes on Sunday nights,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So this Sunday we'll go live on YouTube after the
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Chiefs Bills game around nine to forty five pm Eastern.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I'm actually I actually can't wait. Wait, it's way past my bedtime,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: but yeah, this game is so full of drama, so
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: full of opinions, so full of Matt Mitchell freaking the
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: freak out. I'm almost more excited for seeing Matt Mitchell
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: in whatever state after that game than I am talking
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: about the game or betting the game itself. Will Matt
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Mitchell have eaten wings? Will he have worn gloves? Will
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: he be able to come on if the Bills don't win?
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: Oh? My god?
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Who cares?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Simon, there's a lot of subtext with that game.
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: Say it's probably the game of the year.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: We're gonna get to it. We're going to dig in deep.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: bet three sixty five.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: Bet three sixty.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get more boosts
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: with them than with anyone else. Every day they powered
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: the odds one hundreds of bets to give you a
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: chance to win more. Bet three sixty five boost specific markets.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: You're winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: keeping out for their biggest and best odds with the
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: incredible super Boost. Check out the boost and see why
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. Bet three sixty five must be twenty
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: one or older in president in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling Problem called one
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right, kicking off the
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: divisional round, which is approaching opportunities all over the board,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: It's time for sharkalls.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Hello, who's there?
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: I'm talking Ray telephone ring somebody saying maybe wanted to
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: do man. Yeah, and since we only have four games,
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: show will kind of do this pretty quick. I would say,
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: shocking to no one. About sixty percent of the pros
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: I talked to like Houston. They like Houston at that number,
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: it's such a big number. If people want to view
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: of how the pros view this game. I think they're
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: scared off about all the points, like we are with Lamar,
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: and they're just paying them money line with the forty
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: nine ers money line, and it feels like that's the
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: bet they like. If they're going Chalky, they're just pairing
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: those two favorites together. So pretty interesting that I haven't
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: really talked to that many people that like the Ravens
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: on the spread, and I feel like when I look
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: in the app, it reflects that right, Like it looks
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: like all the money is on Houston. I kind of
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: dealt with this last week with the rams, like people
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: kept messaging, ar'tie scared about back in the rams all
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: the money is on the rams and talked a little
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: bit about it. But it was just like last week
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: was the Pros dream of a bet. Right, the Pros
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: took the three and a half and they took the
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: Lines money line when the line came down and they
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: crushed the middle. And you know, the books didn't fire anybody,
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: but they probably should have, right, that was a bad,
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: bad line. They shouldn't have hunt their three and a half.
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: The numbers should have been three, should have dropped the
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: two and a half, they would have got Lines money
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: and you know they would have made off pretty well. Instead,
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: they got crushed. They got middled terribly by a lot
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: of professionals. So and so, I mean, you talk all
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: the time about these key numbers. That was last week
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: was the definition of that, like a three and a
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: half such a key number.
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: They had to move it down just because they got so.
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Much money on their rams, and I mean, their worst,
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: the worst case scenario happened for them was that that
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: landing in between three just just just terrible. So you
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: know this this next game with green Bay. It's the
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: same thing of I know plenty of pros who like
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: green Bay. They liked them at ten, they believe in it.
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: And then there's pros like being you that are okay
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: with taking the forty nine shore We liked the spot
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: and we're you know, we're trying to break down this
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: is a seventh seed in green Bay for a reason.
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: We know how well they played towards the end of
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: the season and still a team that their defense can
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: give up a ton of points. I mean, we joke,
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: what was that four or five weeks ago? They made
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield look like a Hall of Famer and they
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: made Tommy DeVito the player of the week.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: So you know, that's that's my pushback.
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: When I had a bunch of pros telling me like,
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: how do you not take this Green Bay team? How
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: do you not take the money line? I just felt
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: like that was the most public play of the week, right,
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: people are just going to be backing this Green Bay team,
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: especially after.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: The beat Dallas. So I'm not sure if there's still
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: the biggest money line play of the week.
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: But I did see what was that Tuesday when I
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: flew out before I left that they were like the
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: heaviest bet play at the books.
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: Right now was their money line.
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: So not shocking that the public likes them so much,
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: but I was shocked that there's pros that like green
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: Bay that much. Where it's like I did it first too,
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: But the more you dive into the numbers, it just
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: feels like the right side.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Like you and me, Simon the key phrase there you
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: just said it pros like you, you being Chad.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: If people don't realize, I am sleep deprived. I have
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: traveled across country. Uh, survived multiple babies on an airplane.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Don't don't try to give excuses for why you called
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: me a pro.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: That's an excuse to the fact. No, no, don't bring
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: babies on airplanes. Don't.
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: Don't even don't even have me get into a chat.
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: Next one, I was undecided about it. I think I'm
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: getting bullied and they're taking Detroit and again we'll we'll
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: dive into it, but people want to know who the
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: pro is.
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: Like most of the.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: Pros I've talked to really like Detroit in the spot,
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: which I'm just shocked by. So that's when we'll dive
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: into obviously. And yeah, this last one, it's not a
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: shocked anybody. It's not exactly what I talked about. If
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: you can get a three, a lot of the Pros
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: are going to take the three on the Chiefs, and
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: that's just to them the smart play, like you just
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: they're playing the numbers and historically taking the homes as
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: a dog, especially at that number three is a big deal.
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: So I knew going into it the public side was
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: going to be the Bills.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: You know, obviously we're about to break it down.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: But it's just not shocking like that's that was probably
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: the most boring game, worst boring conversation of the week.
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: Why I wouldn't the pros take the plus three on
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: my homes like they know that long term it's it's
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: been good to them, it's been a winner. I would
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: just bummed out that not enough of them are taking
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: this Bills team. I don't think enough respects being paid
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: to this Bills team. So yeah, definitely a game I'm
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: looking forward to breaking down with you today.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: I am too. I'm really excited.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: To me, it's that game wraps up everything you want
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: to talk about from a handicapping point of view. As
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: a reminder, catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: For those who enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: All Right, we got to get toward foxhol We got
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: to get to our big balls. We got to do
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: our money line parlay, which I think might go heavy
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: on favorites this week. I don't know if we have
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: a tr but let's start Houston at Baltimore. You hinted
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: at this a little bit. Baltimore nine and a half
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: point favorite Tuesday when we spoke, the line was at nine,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: trending to eight and a half, and then it zoomed
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: back up to nine and a half, and you just
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: said something really specific and interesting. You look in the app,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: the money and the tickets are coming in on Houston.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So somebody's moving this game in Baltimore's direction, and I
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: can't figure out where that money is coming from. Do
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: you have any idea?
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: Can you suss it out?
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: What's your instinct for why that line moved back up
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: even though the wise guys and everybody seems to like Houston.
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: There's a bunch of factors.
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: But I mean, Evan just put in our chat the
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: weather that could be a factor why it moved, right,
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: it's supposed to be twenty degrees, he's saying it's thirteen
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: to fifteen mile wins.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: That alone would move to the number.
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: Right, Like, why would you not want to take the
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: Ravens in a bad weather game?
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: That's a big that's a big deal.
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: Like they're they're a team that they can they can
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: thrive in that where we don't know a Houston indoor
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: team that plays better on indoor you know fields, We've
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: seen it with CJ. It's a big deal, So that
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: makes sense. I would say it was pretty crazy. I
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: was getting a lot of questions about a book we
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: can't name is kind of new into the whole gambling spear,
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: and they're trying to get new customers, and they went't
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: really bullish, and they moved I believe it was a
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: forty nine ers and the Ravens down to like eight
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: seven and a half at their books, and.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: People were asking why they were doing that.
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: And if you obviously, if you don't know what this
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: book is, you probably miss a number then. But basically,
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: this book is trying to get new customers, and the
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: perfect time to get new customers is during the playoffs.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: So that's why people were wondering why that line was
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: a point or two off every other book. It's that
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: simple fact. They're trying to get new people in there.
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: So I mean people are freaking out there, like if
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: you don't you love the forty nine ers share at
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: this number, yeah, of course, I mean every other book
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: had nine and a half for nine ers, that book
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: had eight. Yes, I would love to take it at
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: that book. But it's it's basically they're they're they what
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: they wanted to do. Happened, right, If you hadn't had
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: any money on the site, you added money to it,
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: and then you took that number because there was such
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: a great number. So some of the books movements have
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: been bs. But what I think the movement is is
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: the weather and then the other fact of what I
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: just told you, all those teasers, all those moneyline parlay
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: is coming in really heavy, all that Ravens team.
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: You know, that's that's what the public wants to do, right.
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: They wanted they want to take Baltimore like the Baltimore which.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: I get it.
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: Like we talked about them a nauseum after that fort
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: nine Ers game. How incredible of the team they are
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: with that defense. But Kyle Hamilton's playing well with Rokwan
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: Smith is playing well. It's like they got all the pieces.
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: They're an incredibly talented team. It's us fading them is
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: more about playing the numbers, right, Like we talk all
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: the time, we love Lamar under three, he's two and
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: a half favorite, he's a dog. Me and Chat hit
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: him almost every time like it's very rare. We won't
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: take that number, but when it gets over three and
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: a half, we pause, and then when it gets over
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: seven and a half, it's an automatic fade on him.
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: And I don't know if you saw Evan's article, but
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: it's like Evan put up the numbers. I knew we
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: had some of the numbers that kind of backed it up,
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: but it really stands out when Evan posted it. Well,
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: this is one that doesn't involve that. But on twelve
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: days rest in Lamar's career, he's won and six against
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: the spread. So that right there is something that pops
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: out to where it's like, in seven games he's won
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: and six on twelve days rest.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: Okay, that's pretty interesting. Now we factor hih.
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: We talked about the past three seasons and minus three
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: and a half or higher. He's six and sixteen against
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: the spread, Like that's such a big deal, the fact
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: that these struggles is a big favorite. Now when it
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: goes above seven and a half, he's one in eight
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: against the spread. Me and you already talked about only
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: cover he had was in Week one of this season
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: against a rookie head coach and a rookie QB making
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: their first start together. So it just all lines up.
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: But we already loved it, and then the trends kind
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: of back it up as well, So you know, Lamar,
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: I would be happy to be proven wrong, but me
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: and you were up so big right now, it doesn't
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: even matter, especially if you've been listening to the show
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: for the last three four years. Like that was one
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: of our best calls we've ever had, was that Titans call.
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: Like that was a great call where Titans, I believe
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: we're a ten point underdog and they went out right.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: If you go back and.
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: Watch that game, the Ravens should have won that game
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: thirty times over. Like it was the flukiest thing ever.
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: But Dad's playoffs. That's what I'm trying to beat into
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: people's heads here, is that's how playoff is so It
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: is tough trying to convince be able take the Texans
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: here just because I get where they're coming from about
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: the Ravens love and how well they played this year.
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: But I just I love the Texans in the spot.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Shat Simon, I believe we owe people of big balls,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: we owe people of Foxhole. We've already committed to the
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Bills and the Chiefs, as Assigmon says, and the Packers
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: and the Niners. As an exec decision, I believe this
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: needs to be our big balls better the week, say
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: allowed him proud Big Balls Better the week Houston Texans
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: plus nine and a half against the Baltimore Ravens.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: Because this is what we're doing. There's no coming back
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: from it.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: And look, this is a bit more of a controversial
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: call than you would think for people who want to
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: back big underdogs in this spot as professional betters, which
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: is what Simon and I would normally do, because there
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: is money come in on the Ravens and there is
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: a sentiment about the Ravens. For everything we can say
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: about Lamar Jackson as a favorite, he's been a home
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: favorite thirty eight times.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: He's covered just fifteen of those.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Games over the last twenty years, he is ranked two
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: hundred and thirteenth of two hundred and twenty quarterbacks against
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: the spread. As a home favorite, he is just historically
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: struggled as a favorite at home. That is the trend
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: we are going to back right now.
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: Another amazing staff from Evan I love. In the last
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: twenty years in the playoffs, there's only been four teams
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: Chad that were underdogs of have a TD or more
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: that closed with over sixty percent of the tickets. So
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: four teams have ever done this. So in twenty fourteen,
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: we had the Saints at plus ten. They lost to Seattle,
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: but they covered. In two thousand and eight Giants against
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: New England, if you remember that the Super Bowl, they
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: were a Day one twelve point dog. They won seventeen
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: to fourteen. So right now we're two and oh on
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: covering these big dogs, big public dogs in the playoffs.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: Two thousand and eight Giants plus seven against Dallas they
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: won twenty one to seventeen.
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: So not only are.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: We have three and oh on taking these big dogs,
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: we have two that have one outright, and then two
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: thousand and eight Seahawks plus nine they got smoked. That's
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: why I want you to throw a little on the
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: money line just because if you play this spot long term,
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: it's it's a nice trend so far. I know it's
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: only four game sample, but it's been profitable taking these
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: big dogs not only on the number, but on the
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: money line as well. So I had a couple questions
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: about why even mess with the Texans money line? If
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: I have a future, I want it all, baby, Like
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: I said, if you don't want to take the money line,
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: you just want to write your future, go for it.
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: But it's like if I like a spot, I'm going
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: to keep throwing money on it. So obviously I love
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: the number. Yes, like Chad said, a little scary, it
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: came back up. And now if it makes a little
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: bit more sense now when we're talking about weather, because
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: that is a big deal the factor in the weather here.
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: So if you've been riding these unders too, these wind unders,
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: if it holds and we're getting fifteen twenty more prior
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: wins by kickoff, if you're wondering what me and try
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: to like it a total in that game. But it's
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: the under. We like the unders. We play wind unders here,
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: so double play on that one. Taking the dog, taking the.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Under speaking of double play, Green Bay at San Francisco.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is a nine and a half point favorite.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: This was my exec decision.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: I still love it. I love it even more because
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: the majority.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Of the bets, meaning the squares, are coming in on
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: the Packers.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: They are a public dog.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: I'm so thrilled about this. Just the value on this
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: team is inflated. This team should be a eleven to
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: twelve point underdog in this spot. And we have seen
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: this too many times, too many times with a team
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: coming in hot and then getting demolished. They are one
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: of the youngest teams in the league. They're just happy
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: to be here. This is all a surprise to them.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: In November, they were on the outside looking in. They
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: needed a run in the last two months of the
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: year just to get to this spot. The Niners have
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the best shot to win the Super Bowl they have
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: had during Kyle Shanahan's reign. There is no dominant team
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: in the AFC right so to me. Remember, the Packers
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: lost to the Giants second half of the season, lost
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: of the Steelers second half of the season, gave up
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: thirty points to the Panthers second half of the season,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I'm betting the Niners. I might even be tempted Simon
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: to take some of the out lines Niners minus twenty
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: one plus three thirty five minus twenty four plus forty six.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna sprinkle. I feel so good about this game. Sprinkle, sprinkle, sprinkle.
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: I think the first call I got when we got
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: off our call on Tuesday was a buddy or a
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: pro saying, fucking chat. As soon as you guys said
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: take the forty nine ers minus ten and moved to
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: nine and a half, I said, yeah, sounds about right.
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just we love it. I got. The more
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: I dive into it, I'm with you.
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: And then I read Evans about you know, Shanahan as
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: a home favorite, you know.
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: Big favorites like this.
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: It's all there, like I have no fear in taking
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: this number and I feel like it nailed it too,
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: where we're getting a good number just because of what
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: happened last week with Dallas, like that blowout.
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I went back and watched the tape.
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: It's like Jir Jordan Love is next level right now,
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: Like his confidence is out of this world. And that's
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: the way they stay in this and that's why the
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: pros are backing a little bit of the screen Bay team.
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: It's because of that. It's like at the ten I
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: understood why.
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: It's like, Okay, you're hoping for a backdoor Jordan of love,
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: because that's why I'm in agreeance with you, which feels
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: like this forty nine Ers offense is going to absolutely
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: roll on this Green Bay defense, Like there is not
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: going to be a bunch of pick sixes, right, Like
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: I just can't see brock Purty having a meltdown, Like yeah,
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: the first thirty plays are going to be totally scripted
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: by Shanahan, So it's like I have no fear at
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: all compared to Shanahan's script with McCarthy's script against that
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: Green Bay's defense. Yeah, ched like the fact that we're
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: getting nine and a half again. I kind of wanted
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: to make in my foxhole, but I don't know if
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: that'd be sacrilege, just because I just love it that
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: it's come down and it's like I don't mind it,
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: and again like I already bet it again. I used
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: that book I talked about that were like weird enough
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: to give us the minus eight where it's like, all right,
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: your sons of bitches. I'll be a new customer to
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: your shit site and bet this number. If that's what
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: you guys want, that's what I'll do. So yeah, it's
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: it's crazy, It's it moved like it did, and I'm
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: shocked every book is holding steady at nine and a half.
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: Like you said, it's the public dog of the week
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: is Green Bay. So the books you're saying, all right,
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: we don't want to give anyone else to ten, then
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: we'll just hold it the nine and a half and
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: I'll be interested if it pops by game time, just
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: because of all the teasers and all the bets coming
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: in on the forty nine ers, I think late.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: For the record, I said the niners were my executive
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: decision at nine and a half, not at ten. They
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: were not at ten on Tuesday when we had the
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: podcast number.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: One, you were looking to live numbers.
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: So I was it was ten at bet three sixty
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: five when you said it, and Matt Mitchell had the
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: graphic cup at ten.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Oh he did, correct.
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: Okay, I wouldn't lie to you, brother, Come on now.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: I wrote it down as nine and a half. I
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: didn't write it down as.
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: N Yeah, no, just because we were in studio, like
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: you couldn't see what the live number was.
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: Ten. That's why Matt Mitchell had it as such.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Which is fair, all right, that's fair. Fine, I'll take
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: it at ten, totally fine. Number one, number one, number two.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: This is a luck over. The luck rankings this past
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: week went five and one. This is a luck over.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: And what did I say the other day? I think
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: the final score is going to be forty two to fourteen.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: So we like the over in this game. I'm betting
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the over. I'm betting the Niners. I'm betting some all
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Niners as huge favorites, as high as I can get it,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: at the biggest number I can get it. Here's a
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: great stat if you like Green Bay to pull the upset.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Consider this.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Since twenty eleven, eighteen underdogs one outright in the wild
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: card round, seventeen of those eighteen lost in the next round.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan at home and.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: As a favorite in the playoffs four to zer straight
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: up and against the spread in both spots since nineteen
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: ninety the only coach.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: Four and oh were better in that spot. But here's
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: why I like the forty nine ers so much. This weekend.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: They have nine wins of sixteen or more points this season,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: most this year, with the Cowboys eleven wins of ten
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: points or more this season, most in the NFL. This
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: is just a great spot for this team that is
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: probably the best team in the league right now.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and like you said, it took me a minute
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: to come around. I think the biggest one for me
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: is just their defense, where I know the forty nine
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: ers defense will be able to get stops and I
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: don't know if the Green Bay defense will even if
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: Purdy comes out a little rusty from this extended rest,
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: and you know, they start out sloppy in the first quarter.
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: We've seen it. I mean even when they played the Eagles,
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: we saw them going, you know that run. I think
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: they scored five straight times where it's like once a
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: Fortnitas offense gets going, it's just you can't stop them.
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: And like everyone's healthy, Like just going through their injury
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: report right now, like it's all good. Like it's crazy,
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: how you know, not that I thought McCaffrey is gonna
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: miss time, but like he was banged up towards the
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: end of the season. I mean they held him out,
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: They pulled him out of a game because I think
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: he took a shot right on his knee, and it's
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: like they got the rest. All their guys are good
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: to go. It's just it's so crucial getting that one seed,
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: especially a team like this that's so physical. So yeah,
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: couldn't couldn't have picked the worst spot for Green Bay
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: to walk into, especially when they're overinflated, like he talked
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: about it. Just the line moved too much based off
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: of what happened last week.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: It's like, I do think Green Bay is good. I
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: think they are.
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's crazy to say I would have them
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: higher rated obviously than a bunch of teams, like even
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: the Eagles, who were ahead of them. It's like they've
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: passed them right, Like how they're playing right now, they
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: are a better team than yous that we're playing. So
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: nothing but respect green Band what they've done this season.
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: It's just it's just a bad spot against a really
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: high powered dolphinse with the forty nine ers, and just
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: I just can't see how they keep this one closed.
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: So I get where you're doing the all line.
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: Stuff and betting all that, but yeah, like the fact
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: you're getting nine and a half.
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: That makes me so happy.
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: Everyone can get that number now, just because the public
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: have bet this down.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Go get it and now a quick word from our sponsor,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Hello Fresh. With HelloFresh, you get farm fresh, pre portioned
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: ingredients and seasonal recipes delivered right to your door. Are
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: you too sad from seeing Mike McCarthy coach your football
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: team to leave your house?
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: No problem.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: With HelloFresh, you skip trips to the grocery store, And
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: unlike betting on the Dolphins, they make home cooking easy,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: fun and affordable. That's why they're America's number one meal kit.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: This time of year, everyone's looking to revamp their eating habits.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: Look to Hello Fresh as wholesome options every week. They
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: know breakfast is the most important meal of the day.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: In fact, they're giving all subscribers free breakfast for life.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: That means you'll enjoy a totally free breakfast item with
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: every single Hello Fresh delivery. So go to HelloFresh dot
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: com slash favorites pod free and use code Favorites pod
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: free for free Breakfast for life one breakfast item per
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: box while subscription is active. That's free breakfast for life
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: at HelloFresh dot com slash Favorites Pod Free with code
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: favorites Pod Free, HelloFresh, America's number one meal kit, Tampa
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Bay at Detroit Simon, I think this has to be
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: our foxhil we Lean Bucks on Tuesday didn't pull the trigger.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: We hadn't done all of our diligence yet it was
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: seven at the time. I think it cost us half
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: a point in value. I think we both still like
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: the Bucks a lot here. You can find a seven
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: at somewhere take it. The majority of the bets are
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: coming into the Lions. That's why I'm thinking it's got
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: to be our foxhole. The trait got outgained by the Rams,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: and if you look at the matchup, Baker Mayfield is
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: going to torch this Lion's secondary and everyone knows what
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Todd Bowles is gonna do. He does not disguise it.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Blitz Blitz, Blitz. There's one thing Jared Goff has not
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: been as effective against.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: It's the blitz. It's extra pressure. I feel like we
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: got to go with the Bucks.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, my model likes the Bucks. I wanted to take
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: the Bucks.
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: It just sucks all the pushback I got where I
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: get where the pros are coming from.
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: Why they love the Lions.
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: Here, you know, no one thinks the Bucks are a
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: better team, right, The Lions are obviously the better team.
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: They deserve to be this big of a spread number,
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: but means I just think it's too high. That's why
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: we want to take the Bucks, as simple as that.
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: Where we're just playing the numbers here. So yeah, I
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: think I guess Lions fans are just very sensitive right
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: now because they haven't been this position. They haven't won
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: a playoff game in thirty years, and they're kind of
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: puffing their chests out and they quickly went from this
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: lovable underdog character. So I think every NFL fan kind
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: of hates them now a week into the playoffs, are
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: just it's too much. Lions fans, like, I don't know,
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: they're just they're being aggressive Like me and Chad, it's
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: all business here. It's all business, like I got nothing
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: against the lines. We're not begging you to take the
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: Bucks in the money line. We're just telling you to
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: cover this number like that's that's the key here. It's
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: like the numbers too big. We think it should be
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: closer below six. It's six and a half seven. Like
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: Chad said, did a couple of books, you can still
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: get seven's how can we not take that number like this?
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: This team, the back door is always open, and people
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: point to they played early in the season.
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: Me and Chad were on the Bucks.
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: Yes, people kept reminding us that we took the Bucks
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: there against this Lions team at home. They lost twenty
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: to six, and I went back and watched it, and
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: my biggest takeaway was it was just a bad Baker game.
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: Baker played terrible in that game, and they were just
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: never gonna be in a Baker camp play. So Sam
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: goes here, Baker lays an egg. Yeah, of course the
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: Lions are gonna dominate and win this game. But Chad
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: just talked about it. It's like their secondary can be
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: moved on. They're not a team that is going to
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: shut down another offense. They're a team that needs to
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: outscore you. And that's the fear with back in the
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: alliance here. It's just like, are we gonna get the
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: same exact thing that happened last week where golf looked
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: incredible in the first half and then just totally fell
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: off a cliff after a team that made the adjustment
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: for the second half like that really did happen. He
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: put up three points at home against that Rams team.
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: He did struggle in that second half. As much as
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: I like to make fun of these dinosaur coaches like
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: Todd Bowles, you know I expected him able to make
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: adjustments to give golf problems. So you know, Chad, Chad,
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: you're you've talked me into it. I did get bullied
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: pretty hard about this where people are like you guys
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: got to stop overthinking. This is just taking the Signs
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: team because the shotgun of pros do like the Lions here.
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: I just I can't get there. This big of a number,
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: especially at the seven, just feels way too big. So yeah,
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: the the.
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: Lions team have to do what they did last week
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: against the Rams. Their their their defense, gotta what.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: I talked about.
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: They gotta play like the old school football style. They
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: gotta be rough, they gotta be hitting guys every play.
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: They gotta be all over Mike Evans and Gywins. And
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: you know that's how they could win this game and
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: stopping those two guys. But me and you are betting
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: they won't be able to and like I feel confident
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: in doing that. When you look at the numbers, it's
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: just how bad they are against the past. I mean,
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: we just saw what Pooka and Cooper did. Mike Evans
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: and Guywin aren't there fall far of the step down?
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: Like these guys are such producers, especially Mike Evans had
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: such a bad week last week.
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: Chad. I love that bounce back spot.
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: I know we don't do props on here, but I
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: do love Mike evans props this upcoming week. I like
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: his anytime touchdown, I like his over receiving yards. It's
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: just a great bounce back spot for a Hall of
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: Famer who just had a bad week last week. And
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: you know we talked about this week in interviews. It's
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: like he wants to get that back. Oh there we go.
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: Stucky's on Godwin Overs.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: It's like I was just gonna say, Stucky is on
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Godwin's over longest reception. Folks should listen to Stucky and
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Raybound on the Action Network Thursday episode because they went deep, deep,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: deep on a breakdown of this game from the perspective
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: of the Lions secondary against Baker and the Bucks, and
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: a reminder the last four games, the Lions defense has
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: given up Stafford three hundred and sixty seven yards Hookah
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty one yards receiving, Nick Mullins three
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: ninety six, Justin Jefferson one hundred and ninety two yards receiving,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Dak three hundred and forty five yards throwing, Ceedee Lamb
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty seven yards receiving, and then that
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: previous game against Minnesota, Nick Mullins four hundred and eleven
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: yards passing JJ, Justin Jefferson one hundred and forty one
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: yards receiving. Last week, Kate Otton, who has become America's
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: sweetheart as a tight end.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: He was the Action Network Pick of the Week.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: So many player props were one on Kate Otten, including
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and Evan Abrams and Stuckey with a listener
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: at a random bar betting Kate outen alt Lines Live
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Lines on Monday Night. You just have to expect another
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: big game from the receivers in this in this matchup,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: and I think that's what keeps that's what keeps the
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Bucks close, because you said it in that first game,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: like Baker just missed a lot of balls downfield.
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he laid it to a leg.
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: And that's the that's the fear, and that's why I
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: think I'm getting pushed back from guys who like Detroit
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: here where it's like I'm investing too much in Baker
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: after one of Baker's better games. But if you really
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: go into the numbers last week, Baker did play really well.
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: It wasn't like his best game ever, right, he just
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: took advantage of the opportunities the Eagles were giving to him.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: And you know, that's why we like Baker.
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: It's like we talk about his grit and he's just
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: a constant pro where it's like I like where Baker
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: can go over five throwing and it does not fade him.
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: He still has a confidence as if he just won
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: five for five throwing. It's like the guy just does
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: not get shaken that way. And you know, another amazing
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: staff from Evan. Again it's a small sample. Baker in
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: his career is undefeated against the spread in the playoffs, right,
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: Like he's just he covers in the playoffs. He's always
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: a little bit underrated. So this feels again like he's
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: a little underrated here. I have this number five and
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: a half, it's six and a half seven. We love
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: to take that value there, especially on acrossing key numbers
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: here like six and a half and seven. So Yeah, Unfortunately,
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: our book is showing six and a half, so that's
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: what we'll have to play. But like Chad said, there's
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: there's a bunch of sevens out there. You can go
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: get people.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: I do think come Sunday, this will be back at seven.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: I would wait on this one because the money's going
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: to keep coming into the Alliance. They are America's sweetheart team.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: They're a public team. We've seen these lines move as
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: games have gotten closer to kickoff.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: I would hold off. We saw it last.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Week the Chiefs went from four to four and a
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: half to five to five and a half against the Dolphins.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: If you like the dog here, give it a second.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: But the Bucks plus six and a half will be
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: our Foxholt.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: a city.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: I'm a foxhole guy.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: Simon.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: This is just the second time in Lions franchise history
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: that they have been favorites in the playoffs and consecutive games.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: How long ago was the last time, Matt Mitchell please
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: play the hot new number one recording sweeping America. The
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: last time the Lions were favored in consecutive playoff.
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: Games asal Mommy kissing a close.
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: A money the MISSLEO.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: I saw Mommy kissing Santa Claus December nineteen fifty two. Simon,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: I wasn't even born in December of nineteen fifty two.
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: My dad wasn't even born yet, so that is a long.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: Time ago, Thank fucking god. Oh I can say about that.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: All right, Kent City Buffalo.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: It's the game. We got to talk about. Everything else
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: is preamble. This is the game.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: This was your Simon says, been bouncing around two and
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: a half three, two and a half three, It's back
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: down to two and a half to pros Joe's game.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: Bets are on the Chiefs. Money is on the Bills.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I did bet it this morning. I know on Tuesday
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: I was. I was fifty to fifty this morning. Bills
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: by a million. Russeuell Douglas practice on Wednesday. Sean McDermott
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: in his press conference yesterday made it seem like linebacker
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Terrell Bernard, who caught it off the field old could
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: play on Sunday. This was the big issue for me
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: was the injuries.
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: Is a J.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Klein off the street going to be the guy defending
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: the middle of the field. But everything you said about
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: the Chief is right, Like they're not the same team,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: so you gotta This is when it gets really fun.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: You need to understand when the wave is cresting. And
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: that's the scariest part of betting. I believe we are
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: picking a time when the wave is cresting.
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's also like, I remember you were worried
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: about anjel on Tuesday, and we didn't talk too much
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: about it, but it was also in the back of
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: mind of like it's the last game, buddy, Like they'll
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: give them the pain thats he needs, right, It's just like,
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: can you give us one more?
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: That's how every all these guys are so damned tough.
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's like the hockey thing, right, the hockey
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: guys play with all these injuries and the season ends
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: they get about ten surgeries. So the same goes for football.
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: I was shocked that there wasn't as much love for
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: the Bills. I thought there would be, Like, it seems
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: like guys are just scared against the go against my homes, honestly,
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: and they feel like not that it's lazy betting, but
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: they're just like, you know, what, I'm just going to
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: take the three and I haven't worry about this one
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: where it's like, why don't you just do that with
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: the Bills of the two and a half? Like that
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: to me just feels like the smart play, Like like.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: You just said, it's all lined up there the Bills.
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we need those guys in the middle, like you
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: talked about, like we don't want guys who just got
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: up bubble their couch playing middle linebacker for this Bills
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: team against Mahomes. But it's like, I'm just not scared
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: of Mahomes and this team and like just going through
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: this last you know, a couple months with them, it's
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: like they'll have a game where they kind of show
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: it off, right, they're back to their ar whatsoft. I
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: think they had a game where they put up thirty
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: one points in the middle of the season and like
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: everyone jumped right back on them, and then the next
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: week they could barely move the ball against Denver. It's
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: like they're just they're just so inconsistent and the Bills,
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: whatever you want to say about them being inconsistent and
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: Josh Allen turnovers and everything like that, they the inconsistency
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: kind of changed for me when they made a change
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: of oc and they really did find an identity by
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: running the ball more. And it's like that's going to
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: pay dividends to them. I feel like in the playoffs right,
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: like when they need something to lean, I feel like
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: they'll be able to do that. And you know, historically,
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: another thing I stole from Evan, it's like Josh Allen
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: against really good defenses actually plays really well in his career,
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: Like he performs really well against really good defenses. So
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: I know what a couple of pros bring that up
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: where it's like, well, they have the better defense for
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs.
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: It's like Josh Allen's cancels out.
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: I mean, Josh Allen, can we not agree he's the
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: best quarterback in the draft, like left in the playoffs
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: right from like what the way he's played coming in
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: and him you know him and that Steelers game where
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: it's like that ability to run and be so big
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: and strong, it's just such an X factor.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: We've even talked about the fact that the Chiefs have
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: never played in Buffalo when the Bills have had a
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: full stadium of their fans, Like it's just all points
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: to them. And the only thing keeping this down below
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: the three. It's like it's the professionals taking the three
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: on the Chiefs. So it is just such an interesting
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: line this week where it's like I thought it would
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: be stuck in three all week. I'm shocked the books
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: are taking the two and a halfs, But I have
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: to believe they're laying another bad line, like they've laid
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: a couple bad lines already this playoffs.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: I think this is another bad line by the book.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Every team has that moment where they get over the hump.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: And you and I have loved the Bills the second
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: half of the season. We've been riding them. We think
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: they could be as good, if not better than the Ravens,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: especially as this defense was coming on and getting more
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: comfortable after all the injuries and what they've done with
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: Joe Brady. I mean, we saw it the way Josh
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: Allen ran the ball against the Steelers. As long as
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: they can make the right coaching decisions and stay out
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: of their own way, the Chiefs have only beaten one
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: playoff team this entire year, the Miami Dolphins. They did
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: it twice, and so this is a great spot for
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: the Bills to psychologically, it's an important game for them,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: it's a important game for Josh Allen, important game for McDermott.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Sets up perfectly if they can be healthy playing in
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: front of the home crowd, cold conditions like Yeah, the
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: more we talk about it, the more it seems like
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: the right thing to do.
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, only the way the Bills lose.
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: The Bills beat themselves, right, if Josh Allen has a meltdown,
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: turns the ball over a bunch, they're sloppy, they're not
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: making the right plays.
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: Of course they're going to lose this game. But it's like, if.
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: They just played the way they should, I just don't
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: see a way that this team beats them. And I
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: know you love ref stats, and a couple people send
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: this to me. Obviously, this ref stat is not good
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: for us. I don't know if you saw this. It's
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: Sean Hockley will be the ref for this game. So
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: in this history, Mahomes is eight and two when he
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: refs his games, including two and zero in the playoffs.
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: The Bills, in the other hand, they have forty penalties
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: for three hundred and forty seven yards called against them
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: in four games with hockey, so the average ten penalties
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: a game with this guy when he refs their game.
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: So not the stat we want to see the refs.
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: The ref clearly is not good to this Bills team.
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: But I'm still not worried about. I know a lot
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: of people send it to us. We do love ref stabs,
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: but it's just like they the NFL is going to
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: try to fix this game from a homes people, if
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: that's what you're worried about, they are just as happy
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: moving Josh Allen along and this Bills franchise along. So
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: don't don't don't start started the crazy conspiracies yet.
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: But yes, if if they.
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: Don't cover this game and a ref makes a big
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: call at the end of this I will bring the
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: stat back up and we will bitch about him refereeing
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: this Bills game.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: Look what the NFL is really gonna want? I think
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: they want a Bills Niners super Bowl.
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: It's line up though.
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: I saw I think the actually ever tweeted out someone
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: made that bet for like ten to fifteen bucks to
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: win like five K. It's like, it looks like such
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: a great bet now. But if you made that bet
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: a month ago, people, and I thought you were a
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: crazy person.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I made that bet before the season,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: did you My two best remaining futures are and I
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: wanted to talk about this next week. If it advances
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: to that, how do I hedge? Because my best futures
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: remaining are Niners Chiefs and Niners Bills matchups. And you
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: know why I made that bet because before the season began,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams had a great stat that I think nine
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: of the past ten Super Bowl winners had odds of
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: twelve to one or less when the season began. So
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: I just did a round robin of all the matchups
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: and it was all like it was it was Bengals, Chiefs,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Bills against Niners Eagles in every pairing.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: So I just did that and I've got two remaining.
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: Pretty good, right, Yeah, as I say, you're in a
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: nice spot where it's like, basically with that hedge, it's
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: pretty simple. You just let the first game play right,
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: So next week the Foy Niners are the first game.
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: You'll just let that play out and then you can
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: hedge the next game if you're really scary. But yeah,
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: that's that's a great bet.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we're gonna talk about this on next week's show.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: How much am I hedging at four? Is the question
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: before we get to that. Normally we would do the
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: money line underdog round robin. A reminder, we're on the
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Bills here minus two and a half. Normally we do
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: the money line underdog round robin. We love the Niners here,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: we like the Bills here. I guess we could do
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: a money line underdog round robin of the Texans and
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: the Bucks, but I.
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: Almost rather I wouldn't do Bucks.
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: I know it sounds stupid, but I just I just
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: feel like the Lions will win this game, like the
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: I don't know, just the fact that Campbell is such
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: a high risk guy that to me gives them the
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: edge to win it where I wouldn't bet. I know,
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: I usually like Bend the Dog's on line. It's just
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: I feel like his new age think is going to
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: beat out Todd Bulls old Jage thinking. That's why I
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: just haven't touched their money line. But yeah, the three
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: favorites and the one dog. If the Texans come through,
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: that's gonna be a really nice paid in a money
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: line round robin.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: So I feel like our money line round robin should
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: really be Texans, Lions, Niners.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: And bills.
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I like that.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: Put it in the book.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Make Little Caesars the official pizza sponsor of the NFL
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: part of your game day, Simon, if a genie granted
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: you three wishes, how many of your wishes would be
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: related to Little Caesar's Pizza?
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: All of them?
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: All three?
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: That's right.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: Order online during our pizza pizza pre game one hour
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: before NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick the topics
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: you crave. Assimon, what do you what do you think
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: about this new motto? I invent it. If thy team
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: on Sunday seems tired and lazy, twas simply because thy
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: crust twasn't crazy.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: However, you order your pizza, you win.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, every one scores with convenient delivery
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: or our in store pizze support will pick up. So
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: grab some friends and enjoy a few slices during the game.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: I just got to say, I've had multiple people come
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: up to me to ask me about the Little Caesars
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: reads and if I'm coming up with those mottos on
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: the spot, and the answer is one hundred percent yes.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: That Mitchell has nothing to do with it all, right,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: do you have the biggest bet yet at this point?
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: Shockingly, it's pretty it's pretty close.
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: Like I'm pretty heavy on the Bills because I thought
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: that two and a half would be gone. And I'm
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: pretty heavy on the forty nine ers and nine and
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: a half, so I also thought that'd be gone. But
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: the Texans, like, I'm just I've been hoping to get
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: to ten, so the Texans might end up as my
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: bigger bet my time Saturday comes around. But it's like
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: I threw a really small amount on the ten when
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: it popped on Sunday when we were in New York
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: or Monday morning, and it just hasn't gotten back to it,
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: so that that Texan's my I wouldn't be my biggest
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: bet because I'm just waiting for the ten. But yeah,
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: my two favorite bet ay now definitely Texans and Bills.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: No Niners and Bills.
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah sure, I meant by the time their games, probably
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: my two biggest bets Bills in Texans.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: But right now you really like the nine ers nine
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: I'm in on it nine and a half.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: Like your buddy Chad said, just saying as a reminder
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast. It's presented by Bet three six five.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: get more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: to give you a chance to win more. Bet three
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: sixty five boost specific markets. You're winnings and even parlays,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: and they don't stop there. Keep it out for their
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost. Check
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: out the boost and see why it's never ordinary at
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: and president in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred one eight hundred
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Right before
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: we get out here, our director of research, Evan Abrams,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: who is the engine behind the stats and nuggets you
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: here on the show and across our network, he is
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: joining us.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: Evan, you get the last word. The last word with
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: Evan Abrams. We're finished talking, all right, guys.
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: So if you like the underdogs, this week.
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: I think you're gonna love this one. So teams to
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: win by double digits in the wildcard round facing a
• 47:23
  Speaker 5: team who didn't are seventeen and seven against the spread
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: in the next round over the last twenty years. Not shabby.
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: When those teams are underdogs, they are seventeen and four
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: against the spread. That is the Texans, that is the Bucks,
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: that is also the Packers.
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: Now I gotta put a little bit of water on.
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: The Packers for a second here, because this is Matt
• 47:41
  Speaker 5: Mitchell's favorite trend. If you're into travel trends, this one
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: is a good San Francisco one. So we have a
• 47:48
  Speaker 5: playoff road team traveling from Est Eastern Standard and Central
• 47:52
  Speaker 5: Central Standard to West Coast on short rest. It's only
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: happened eight times since two thousand and six. Those teams
• 47:59
  Speaker 5: have lost seven of eight. Eight also failed to cover
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: seven of eight. So travel in twenty twenty four definitely
• 48:05
  Speaker 5: not what it used to be. But with that and
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: the short rest hasn't been good for history. Now Simon
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: used his stat I'm gonna finish it. So Josh Allen
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: plays really really well against good defenses in his career.
• 48:18
  Speaker 5: He is twenty six and one against the spread seventy
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: seven percent when facing a team allowing under twenty points
• 48:27
  Speaker 5: per game over the last twenty years. That is the
• 48:30
  Speaker 5: second best of two hundred and forty seven quarterbacks. He's
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: sandwiched between two pretty decent quarterbacks and Tom Brady and
• 48:37
  Speaker 5: Peyton Manning at one In third and finally, Chad mentioned
• 48:41
  Speaker 5: this one earlier.
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: I'm also going to finish the loop.
• 48:43
  Speaker 5: If the Lions close above a three and a half
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: point favorite, they'll be their biggest line as a favorite
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: in a playoff game in franchise history.
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: And one more.
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: This is crazy, so in the regular season and postseason,
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: the Lions have been favored by six points or more
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: versus a winning team just twice in the last twenty years.
• 49:03
  Speaker 5: They are oh and too straight up, oh and two
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: against the spread, with the last game coming all the
• 49:08
  Speaker 5: way in twenty twelve. Truly unprecedented times for Detroit.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: It is insane how excited Detroit got a shout out
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: at the Emmys. A guy who won an Emmy for
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Ted Lasso thanked the Detroit Lions.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: Try what do you.
• 49:30
  Speaker 5: Think of that?
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: More people watch our YouTube page than people watch the
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: Ammy's chat.
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: I hope you know that.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a compliment to our YouTube page.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: You're a diss on the Ammies. But now everybody, anyone
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: who wasn't watching the Emmys now knows this. Uh to
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: recap our foxhol is the bus plus six and a half,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: Salmon says Buffalo, minus two and a half our exec decision.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: I guess it's got to be San Francisco, but minus ten.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: I don't give a shooting star. Big Balls Houston plus
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: nine and a half the Round Robin Houston, Detroit, San Francisco, Buffalo.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: Download us from.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Spotify, Apple, Podcast, wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want, feedback as
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: a gift until we see you guys Sunday Night Live
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: after the Chiefs Bills Game.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: I Love You. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: hundred Gambler