Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | February 24, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | February 24, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:00
Yeah, all systems go clear the left. What's going on, everybody?
0:38
We're back talking some fights, coming off a huge weekend. My man Rio
0:42
and I were at the fights. Was a great time for sure. Didn't
0:45
have as great as a time as our man hoo Tho did shift the m
0:49
M A Streets flagship, all the tournaments shifts golf. No one runs better
0:54
than Hoop right there, but a lot of members had very good weekends as
0:57
well. I think we were spot on and a lot of stuff you got
1:00
Ellie are right. Both definitely costing me some cheese, but it was a
1:03
fun card. No dogs coming through val Woodburn at thirty nine on the winter
1:08
was pretty interesting. We do have I'll throw it to Marley first. We
1:12
do have the two winners from the YouTube comments last week, closest significant strike,
1:17
so I'll get to that in a sack. But big Marley. Friday
1:19
afternoon, at least for you, still in the morning over here drinking a
1:23
high noon. What's going on, man, what's on the agenda? Yeah?
1:26
Man, just celebrating Hoops quarter Millie victory last weekend between UFC and golf.
1:34
Yeah, I was. I've just been working on this card. Was
1:37
getting pumped up for the podcast, figured out cracking Nooner for this one because
1:41
I think it's a tough card, man. I'm excited for it for DraftKings.
1:44
I think there's lots of ways to go, but it's hard to narrow
1:47
down like specific lineups that I like trying to handbuild them so far. So
1:51
I think it could be a solver card, but I'm not sure you.
1:53
I'm excited talking out with you. I think there's just a handful of fights
1:57
that we could target heavily and hope to hit the right combinations, but not
2:00
a lot of big time stands I'm looking to take this week. Yep,
2:05
I'm with you. So I'm typing in the chat to two winners. It
2:07
was trick Shots Gaming and rob bb Capital B thirty nine, both guests on
2:15
Info Shit. Two things that once is pretty tough, Three things that once
2:19
actually both guests ninety seven significant strikes and eighty two was the correct number.
2:23
So I'm dropping it right here. And this is again courtesy of our man
2:27
Coolan, who had the big A two hundred and fifty thousand dollars win in
2:31
the Best Ball playoff streets right there. So congrats to you two. You
2:35
guys. Guess ninety seven, which was the closest to eighty two. You
2:38
guys get a free membership from cooland over here at Schipen Nation as our man
2:44
right there, cooland in chat. What's going on? Man? I hope
2:46
everything going well with you? But again, trick shots Gaming and rob BBB
2:51
thirty nine. All you have to do is take a picture of your YouTube
2:54
email info at chipenation dot com. You guys get a free month courtesy of
2:59
our man Cooling. We got my man, Siggy and Chad. Devon's in
3:02
here, SIGI's in here, Benjizzy Lone Wolf, Jackie Pepper's, Devin Davis
3:07
what is going on? Everybody? Michael Peterson in here as well? Man,
3:12
it was a fun card last week. About that. We appreciate those
3:15
words, Matt. Matt, hopefully everything going on well with you. I'm
3:19
with you though. On this card, Marley, I'm really happy that we
3:22
have the two five round fights. Obviously no title fights in this one,
3:25
but two five rounders makes it fun because if we didn't have two five rounders.
3:30
Man, this card's I already think it's stuff. A lot of big
3:32
favorites three over minus five hundred, right, now mid tiers solid. I
3:38
think there's four clear fights on the slates that we want to target. However,
3:42
one of those fights we have everyone weighed in so far, Edgar Tyra's
3:46
and Daniel Decerta. Tyra's missed by five pounds, Aserta missed by one pound.
3:52
Hopefully that fight stays on. That is one of the best fights in
3:54
my opinion. Two target any Daniel Aserta fights are, So we'll get to
3:59
that. We'll talk like it's on and if it is canceled throughout, let
4:02
us know what's going on. John Kelly, hope everything going well with you.
4:05
Robert Ping is in the building, Rummy's in here as well. What
4:09
is up? Everybody? Appreciate everyone hanging out. We have a lot.
4:12
What is it like, thirteen how many weeks in a row? Was it
4:15
eleven weeks of MMA? You know the number? Yeah, so we still
4:17
got plenty to talk about. Fights on the screen every Saturday. We lose
4:21
Sunday nfls, but plenty of money to be made. And hey, if
4:26
you're fans of Bellotour, there's a lot of fights going on this weekend.
4:29
Isy over here, I'll probably just be watching the UFC for the most part.
4:31
But if you want fights, plenty of fights to be watched any broad
4:36
slate overview any initial stuff you want to talk about again to five rounders,
4:42
which makes it really interesting thirteen fights. Hopefully we keep that lisertive fight,
4:46
but any initial thoughts before we go bottom to top like always no, not
4:50
really. I am glad that the yeah year or take a fight is five
4:56
rounds. I think that's what really throws off this slate and makes it more
4:59
difficult with just more fights that I'm really trying to squeeze into my lineup,
5:03
but we'll get to them all. I'm hoping you can maybe change my mind
5:08
or sway me one way or another on a few of these fights. Maybe
5:11
not a few, but a couple. But other than that, I feel
5:15
fairly decent about this card. Absolutely, And before we get into it,
5:18
if you do want all the content at shippination dot com, of course,
5:21
MMA shout out with that man right to my ooh, this way right to
5:25
my left, Big Marley. Best ownership in the business, A corner sheet
5:30
who has been tracking it ever since Shipping Nation has started. Ownership the most
5:33
important I'd argue, I mean, you don't need to know anything about MMA.
5:36
A lot of the sharpest people out there a dfs don't even know the
5:40
sports or watch IMMA is most definitely an ownership duplication, unique sports and unique
5:46
good ownership. Marley shout out to you have absolutely been crushing that we have
5:51
that on the site. Projections, we'll talk through it. It'll all be
5:54
on the site after slate plan, tier rankings, fight rankings, everything you
5:58
need to be success MMA. NBA shut out our man Hinsey won the four
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dollars twenty entry max seventy five hundred bucks in the NBA streets, so assassins
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won the showdown content. We have showdown content for MBA Golf with djen.
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If you do want to join, use that promo code djen fifteen gets you
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fifteen percent off as well. Golf absolutely on fire. Showdown content of course,
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great projections and ownership over there as well. No better time NHL next
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thing you know, MLB is going to be back to very excited for that
6:30
as well. No better price, no lower price in the industry for great
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content. Shipinnation dot com and if you do join monthly, six month or
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annual, get in the discord. If you just want to check out the
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content. The weekly package we do have for as low as twenty four to
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ninety nine does not include the discord though, if you want to just check
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out what we got though, make sure to check that out Big Boy NBA
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slates later on as well. All the MMA content will be up shortly after
6:57
this show. Let's get into it though. That like button from everyone out
7:00
there as well, hope everybody having a good week having a good Friday,
7:04
has some fun plans throughout the weekend. First fight of the night, big
7:09
Boy favorite to start it off, Muhammed Naimov taking on Eric Silva ninety one
7:14
hundred. Naimov seventy one hundred is Eric Silva. Looking at the odds in
7:18
this one minus five fifty, Eric Silva plus four hundred. This fight is
7:23
minus two hundred to finish nim off minus one fifty inside the distance, Eric
7:28
Silva plus six hundred. Looking at the ownership we have on this fight,
7:32
we have Naimov at thirty six excuse me, thirty six percent, Eric Silva
7:36
at ten percent. I wouldn't even be surprised if Niamov got a little more
7:42
than thirty six, maybe around forty according to his price at ninety one hundred
7:46
compared to the money line, compared to the inside of the distance prop.
7:48
He definitely grades out one of the best in the top tier for sure,
7:51
So definitely gonna come with ownership. Silva will be pretty low owned. Throw
7:56
it right to you in this one, Marley, how do you see it?
8:00
Yeah, man, I think this line is getting out of control.
8:01
To be honest with you, I mean, I'm not super sold on Naimov
8:05
in general. Came into the UFC on short notice, dropped the first round
8:09
to Jamie Malarky, who's not a great UFC fighter, and ends up knocking
8:13
him out in the second, I believe. And then and then I was
8:18
very impressed in his last fight because he beat Nathaniel Wood. I'm very high
8:22
on Nathaniel Wood, but he had to cheat his way to get there a
8:24
little bit. And it was also he's just a lot bigger than Nathaniel would
8:28
My complaint with Wood was that I think he's in a weight class heavier than
8:31
he should be, and I don't think Naimov can just bully real one hundred
8:37
and forty five pounders. So on the regional scene, if we're just comparing
8:41
regional scene tape on these two, Silvia was more impressive men. He was
8:46
just going in and running through guys in the first and second round and like
8:48
the fat in the last five fights before he got to the UFC. And
8:52
Namov comes in as a big underdog to Jamie Malarkey. So his stock is
8:56
just completely risen in the UFC from those two wins. And then Eric Silva
9:01
is just now coming off of a I mean, a pretty bad loss,
9:03
I guess to TJ. Brown. I mean, but if you gave me
9:07
TJ. Brown at these odds, I'm definitely taking it over to name OFV.
9:09
So I just don't get it. For me. It's dogg or pass
9:13
at the current line. I also think that you're probably right. I probably
9:16
do need to raise that ownership a little bit because this line just keeps going
9:20
up and up, and now he's even minus one fifty inside the distance,
9:24
so he's gonna get the ownership for sure, but I'm not so sure he's
9:28
even the better fighter in the first round of this fight. My biggest issue
9:31
with Silva, well, I guess there's two, would be his age.
9:35
He's getting up there in age now, and then his gas tank would be
9:39
the other issue. And now we're fighting at elevation, So that just leads
9:43
to me thinking that name Mov does takeover down the stretch, probably wins the
9:46
second and the third round if it goes to the scorecards, or he finishes
9:50
in the second or third round. But at all his ownership at his price,
9:54
is that gonna be enough. I just don't know if he's gonna go
9:58
out there and land a whole lot of takedown especially early in this fight.
10:01
And if Silva does win, I think it's gonna be in the first round
10:05
or first half of the fight and he breaks the slate, yeah, like
10:07
sixty nine. So my preferred play is going to be Eric Silva in this
10:11
one, just because I don't think he'll get any ownership. I think he
10:15
has slate breaking potential, and I think that this line is just getting out
10:18
of control. But ultimately I think Nameov should win it more often than not,
10:26
and mostly the second and the third round is where I see all that
10:28
happening. Once Eric Silva starts to slow down, Name Of probably picks it
10:31
up. He is powerful. He can you know, land some takedowns,
10:35
keep top control time, and the longer this fight goes, the more it
10:37
should help Name off, so he's the pick ultimately, but there's no way
10:41
I'm laying anywhere near minus six hundred dollars on that. Yeah, it is
10:45
worth noting. I should have said it from the top. This fight is
10:48
or this part is in Mexico City at elevation. A good amount a lot
10:52
of these fighters have been at training at elevation or went to Mexico City early
10:56
to get there. A lot of some of the shoots a box guys we
11:00
have three on this card, did arrive this past week, which we will
11:03
get to that, but it is worth noting just like Colorado, Utah's a
11:07
little elevation. Longer these fights go, you might see some of these guys
11:09
gas a little earlier than usual. I don't have too much more to add.
11:13
I mean my initial thought stance. I mean, the line's definitely too
11:18
wide. And Eric Silva primary wrestler, if solid grappler, if he does
11:22
win, almost surely will be on the optimal I was going back, I
11:26
guess, not necessarily back and forth on him as a fade. But if
11:28
you had to pick one of daniel Lecerta or Eric Silva, which one would
11:33
you play? Because I was going Aserta just because of that fight and just
11:37
how he fights like someone I think is going to be optimal in that fight,
11:41
assuming it is there. But do you have a lean on that man?
11:46
I would say not really because I like the same things about Laserta,
11:52
like the same points are going to be made about him, to be honest
11:54
with you, So if either of them win, I expect a high score.
11:56
And if they both win, they're probably both on the opp don't line
12:00
up, so I would say they're rated like really close to each other.
12:03
For me, Yeah, that's fair. I'm My plan right now is still
12:07
to avoid a lot of these big dogs like plus four hundred and greater in
12:11
twenty entry and below, leave an at least some salary. Maybe just play
12:13
one of the five rounders jam Moore, the mid tier stuff like that.
12:18
So I don't think I still get too much. Eric Silva, you talk
12:20
me into a little. If I build over twenty teams, I'll get some
12:24
there again as the wrestler, the grappler, and I'm off looks great on
12:26
paper for sure, the money line inside inside the distance prop et cetera.
12:31
I said in the sleigh plan, which will be up if I had twenty
12:35
percent love my script. I'm fine. If I had sixty percent love my
12:37
script, I'll be fine. Like I'm not really worried about what I get.
12:41
Name of he's gonna be I think thirty five to forty percent if I'm
12:45
around there, fine. But there's enough people in the upper tier that have
12:48
upper tiers pretty strong this week, and a lot of them could put up
12:52
I think one hundred and ten plus, so I'll use name of in lineups.
12:56
And I'm kind of more contrarian or maybe fading a five round fight.
13:00
Maybe go mixing some of the lower owned nine K fighters. And I'm already
13:03
getting talky, is how I think I'm gonna play name off here and fifty
13:07
feet elevation, Eddy coming in as always with the stats. Good morning,
13:13
Thomas, Good morning. Oh that's not Matt. Matt was already talking.
13:16
What's up Matt though? And Sheets? All right, just stopping in for
13:18
a few minutes. We'll catch a show on playback. My favorite play is
13:22
ridiculously obvious, and if title does not know it, I will give a
13:26
free month to ship a nation to whoever ridiculously obvious obvious. I'm gonna go
13:33
Chris Duncan. Sheets, That's what set out to me first, I do
13:37
not think Le Serda would be the crazy thing that you would say either.
13:41
But because of the money line and everything, I'm gonna say, Chris Duncan
13:43
sheets. So let me know if that is it in chat and if I'm
13:48
wrong, that means he will He said obviously low so I think that is
13:52
it. Yeah, we'll get to that fight. But that didn't make sense.
13:54
It wasn't as obvious as I expected. We have. We'll get to
13:58
that fight. We'll talk about it soon. But both sides will get ownership.
14:01
Tour is definitely we'll get a lot of ownership. But unfortunately people,
14:05
you do not get a ship in nation membership for free on sheets because I
14:09
got it right stead of on the other way. Sheets come on, what's
14:11
going on? Tyler reappreciate those words? Man? So yeah, that's name
14:16
al Silva. Hey Silva is gonna be low owned. Marley made cases for
14:20
him if he wins, almost surely in the optimal has to be dogger pass
14:22
on the betting line though, but my focus, especially namely on the DFS
14:28
streets, keep it going. Next fight on the card, Felipe do Santo's
14:31
victor Alti Morano ninety two hundred Felipe seven k for Alti Morano. We got
14:37
Flipe minus two ninety plus two forty five on the way back for al To
14:41
Morano. This fight is the most likely fight to go the distance on the
14:46
card at plus one sixty, which, hey, that means we're expecting some
14:48
violence, expecting a fun card. Pretty much all that finish equity on the
14:54
Do Santo side at plus one eighty Alti Morano plus nine hundred. I'm interested
14:58
in your take on this one, Marley, because right now I have this
15:01
fight as a full fad. I definitely don't like Alti Morano. I do
15:05
not think the upside is really there. I don't think he's really a good
15:09
fighter. But if I'm gonna I'm kind of circling back a little bit.
15:13
If I'm gonna fade Felipe Do Santo's and just naturally on a car where dogs
15:18
are pretty tough, maybe a seventy five point win at seven K would be
15:22
enough. I don't love the upside as much for al To Morano, but
15:26
both guys could mix in takedowns here. All To Morano poor takedown defense.
15:31
Dosanto's still a young kid. I mean, probably this this line. A
15:35
lot of it has to do is he came on short notice against Menel cop
15:37
shooter box guy, young kid, and looked solid. He's unanimous decision,
15:43
probably lost thirty twenty seven, but he pushed the pace, landed ninety nine
15:46
significant strikes, showed heart, he showed he was solid. But you look
15:52
at the other tape that I was watching, looks like a lot of holes
15:56
in his game. He's definitely hit able, and he's one of the shooter
15:58
box guys that coming over to Mexico Mexico City late hasn't trained really as much
16:03
at elevation al To Morano's been there, so I guess I might circle back
16:08
a little bit. I don't love this fight, relatively speaking in terms of
16:12
ownership, though this fight will be one lowest owns on the card Dosanto's twenty
16:17
one percent, Ultra Morano eleven percent. I have more interest in the dog
16:22
in alt Morano now that I'm talking about it more, and especially if that
16:25
Lecerta fight gets canceled, I definitely think I'll be playing some of my Leserta
16:30
ownership to Alta Morano right here, but in a vacuum. Thirteen fights with
16:34
two five rounders not a fight I like too much. I like others in
16:37
the nine K more than Dosantos. I like some others in the lower seven
16:41
K range. I guess seven point five and below more than al To Moranos.
16:45
So here's to hear your take on this one. Though. Yeah,
16:48
I think I'm closer to the the full fade side. I don't mind full
16:53
fading this fight because I do prefer other underdogs priced around al To Morano more
16:59
than him, and I think there's a handful of better looking favorites on paper.
17:04
But for me, I think I have more interest in do Santos just
17:07
to get a little bit different from the field, starting your lineups different by
17:11
getting him in there. But he's gonna need a finish in order to pay
17:15
off that ninety two hundred dollars price, and I do think he is just
17:19
more skilled everywhere anywhere this fight goes, I think he's more skilled, and
17:22
I think he's more dangerous as well. But alt To Morano is an awkward
17:27
striker who can mix in takedowns, and he is a guy who can go
17:33
for a hard fifteen at a high pace. He'll slow down as the fight
17:37
moves along, but he can fight at a high pace, and I think
17:40
if he's gonna win this fight, it's just gonna be him outworking Dose Santos
17:42
and just doing a little bit more than do Santo's do. Do Santos looks
17:47
flashier, lands the better shots, but out to Morano, lands an extra
17:51
takedown, lands ten extra punches on the feed or something like that. So
17:56
I'm ultimately on I'd rather just not have this fight in my line, but
18:00
I'd rather go contrarian the other way with the favorite. And I think I
18:03
am a little bit high actually, at twenty one percent Dos Santos. I
18:07
might move that down a little bit in name of up. Yeah, I
18:11
would. I would do like four or five I think so too, like
18:12
a sixteen forty one something like that. Yeah, I probably end up doing
18:17
that before we even get out of this show. But for me, I
18:19
would rather get contrarian with the favorite. I am going to pick him to
18:22
get a finish at some point in this fight. I just think that the
18:25
skill gap is gonna be there. And it is also, like you said,
18:30
it's kind of judging him off of a loss, but damn man,
18:33
that was a really impressive loss against the title contender. So I don't think
18:36
ant to Morono has that in him. Give me Do Santos to get a
18:38
finish, But if he wins a decision, I would expect him to score
18:41
like seventy points and that's just not gonna cut it. Yeah, not at
18:45
all. So who do you think is more likely? Shout out you Sheets,
18:48
We see that man, he could have tang said, I wouldn't do
18:52
that to you giving it to the people. Marley, think of something,
18:56
Marley, if you're not a member, say something in chat Marley, will
19:00
someone on this show in the YouTube chat watching live, if you're not a
19:03
member, want to be one, say why you want one? Courtesy of
19:07
sheets. Shout out to that. I would never do that to you,
19:10
sheet Sheets, like you, she So who do you think is more likely?
19:15
So at the end of the day, someone said five? I told
19:18
you someone has five takedowns to the fight. Someone has two? Who has
19:21
five in this one? Yeah? Who's more prone to wrestle? Because I
19:26
think both are live to wrestle for sure, But like I think Dos Santos
19:30
is the better striker, the faster strike, like that he won't need to
19:33
take him down. But ault to Moronald's tadown defense is trash like he can
19:37
if he wants it. But is he even gonna go there? I would
19:41
actually probably think al To Mirando because that would lead me to thinking it's gonna
19:45
go fifteen minutes. And I think do Santo's is kind of comfortable off of
19:48
his back, so he would almost accept takedowns more so than out to Morano.
19:52
Be either way, it wouldn't shock me two to five, uh either
19:56
either side? Yeah, man, this yeah, and you said it from
19:59
the and I'll reiterate it for sure. This card is most very very tough
20:03
in dfs. For sure. I'll definitely, I think, be taking a
20:04
little volume often what I usually play. I'm really happy there's two five rounders,
20:11
but like you have to, I try and always have at least four
20:12
fades on this card, and I want one of them to at least be
20:15
a favorite in the upper tier. And you can make cases for all of
20:18
these guys up there beyond the optimal. So yeah, Tricky fight the most
20:23
likely to go the distance, but you can definitely make a case for both
20:26
guys and Pass to be on the optimal Dosantos. There is a bunch of
20:30
volume. Al To Moronto throws good volume, both guys poor takedown defense to
20:34
mix and takedowns dos Santo's coming to Mexico City lay to elevation. So if
20:38
aul To Moronto survives early takes over, I'm picking Noseantos just because I don't
20:45
think al To Moronto's very good. To be honest, the one word I
20:48
described al Toronto grit. He'll fight for your money. He's tough, he's
20:52
gritty. The skills though, I think he's pretty outclassed in these areas.
20:56
But mine is two ninety just because of one fight from a now cop in
20:59
a loose using effort kind of reminds me like the I guess Diego lopezs has
21:03
shown to be the real deal against mobs or evilov, but similar situation like
21:07
that is how I see it. What's going on? Rio ourmends hopping in
21:12
title the Freshlight. The Rio was with me when I did get it.
21:17
What's going on? G kai for very excited for this one as well.
21:19
Seven pm Eastern little late starts this week, So you're on the East coast
21:23
and there's no football Sunday, you can stay up till the early morning watching
21:27
some fight, sweating nowse some money keep it going. Next fight on the
21:30
card, we got hold on Denise Bondar, Luis Rodriguez, eighty two hundred
21:37
for Bondar, eight thousand for Luis Rodriguez. And this fight when I wrote
21:42
it up yesterday, and that's some books minus one twenty Rodriguez plus one hundred
21:48
Bondar. I'm bet online right now it's minus one ten a pop. This
21:52
fight's plus one fifteen to finish, Rodriguez plus two to sixty inside the distance
21:56
Bondar plus two to ninety. Looking at the these ownerships, we have Bonder
22:02
at sixteen percent and Rodriguez at sixteen percent. Okay, that's interesting because when
22:08
I was seeing minus one twenty plus one hundred, I was thinking, all
22:14
right, the lower or the cheaper fighter by two hundred, as the small
22:17
favorites will be seven ten percent owned something higher on something like that. But
22:23
when you look at who's in this range, you're comparing some of the five
22:26
round fights, you're comparing the manual Tours fight. A lot of better fights
22:30
are in this range. So I do think it is lower owned. But
22:33
it's interesting you have them both the same and now it's a coin flip.
22:37
Maybe that will be the case. How I wrote it up is I prefer
22:41
the Bonder side just because I thought he was going to be lower owned,
22:44
usually like a minus one twenty minus one thirty to a plus one ten on
22:48
the other side. When the minus one thirty is the cheaper fighter, I'm
22:52
almost always going to game theory side. It's pretty much a coin flip minus
22:55
one thirty plus one ten minus one one ten apiece. I don't value too
23:00
different. Give me the ownership discount and the leverage all day in MMA and
23:03
the most variant sport there is. But if they're both gonna be like sixteen
23:07
percent, I think Rodriguez is the more dangerous fighter, has more ceiling.
23:15
But I definitely don't love this fight, relatively speaking, comparing it to the
23:18
five rounders, comparing it to the Torres Duncan fights, etc. So what's
23:22
your thoughts on this. I don't love the fight. I was leading Bondar
23:25
side, but if I see no they're both sixteen percent, I like the
23:29
Rodriguez side more. Yeah. See, this is the one I was hoping
23:33
you could sway me on, and it was also one I was struggling with
23:37
on ownership. I really didn't know on this one, So I just started
23:40
them both at fifteen and then I went to the rest of the fights and
23:42
I just started adjusting at the end. So I could definitely move this one
23:48
either way on both sides. But to me, I think you're right.
23:52
I think that Rodriguez is the more dangerous striker anyways. I also think he's
23:57
probably the better wrestler and the better control wrestler, but Bonder might be the
24:03
more dangerous submission grappler. And I also think he's the guy that could be
24:07
striking at a higher pace because Rodriguez does waste a little bit too much cage
24:12
time for my liking, like he can'll sit back and throw punches when he
24:15
wants to. But in Bonder's last fight, he was active the whole time,
24:19
which I like to see, and I have not seen that really from
24:22
Rodriguez. So I just feel like Rodriguez is gonna be a little bit better
24:26
in the striking and the wrestling, but Bonder might just do a little bit
24:30
more and maybe we get a split decision either way. And that's kind of
24:33
leading me to just not wanting this fight. But it's priced right there in
24:38
the mid range, and if either one of these guys got ninety plus.
24:41
It really wouldn't shock me at all, So I'm not sure. I think
24:44
what my plan's gonna be is to just try to avoid it with my handbuilds,
24:48
you know, ten to twenty handbuilds, and then I'll get my exposure
24:52
through the solver where I'd be fine getting my favorite bonder lineup and just duplicating
24:57
it with Rodriguez type of thing. But I have no real lean on this
25:00
one. I think you're right, just give me the lower owned side of
25:03
the two if we know that going into it. If you had a full
25:07
fade this fight or the last fight, which one you pick him? Right
25:11
now? I have this as a three star because of my unknowns, and
25:15
I put the last one as a two star, so I prefer to fade
25:19
the last one. So yeah, we're both on the same page that we
25:22
don't love these fights relatively speaking to the whole card. But I mean plus
25:26
two sixty inside the distance for AK or for AK is definitely solid. Plus
25:32
two ninety inside the distance for eighty two hundred solid, especially when you'd say
25:36
they're both in the sixteen percent range comparing them to who is in it.
25:40
So yeah, this card is really really tough, and I always I have
25:44
all my breakdowns done on my sleigh plan. It's not on the website now
25:48
because I value a lot what Marley says and this discussion. Then I mix
25:52
around my tags and stuff like that, and right now I have Bonder overweight.
25:56
I have actually this fight is overweight because sixteen percent low and I had
26:02
the alt Morono Felipe No Santo's fad is a fade, but I am I
26:04
am, I don't know. I might be circling back and messing with that
26:08
a little bit. So again, everything will be up on the site pretty
26:11
shortly after the show. Projections, ownership, slate, plan, tier rankings.
26:17
But it's a very tough card, and these two fights for sure going
26:19
to be two of the lower own fights on the card. But I mean
26:23
plus one fifteen to finish plus one sixty to finish the Dosanto side at plus
26:29
one sixty five inside the distance, these two better than plus three hundred.
26:33
Like pretty much everyone's live on this card outside of I guess Sam Hughes might
26:40
even be live. But it's a tough card, there's no doubt about that.
26:41
I don't love these fights in general, relatively speaking, I'll be mixing
26:45
them in chalk. Your lineups leave a little money, and that's so I'll
26:48
be getting different. Bondar is my preferred play though, because I do think
26:52
he will be lower owned, given he is two hundred dollars more expensive.
26:57
What's going on, Ross, I assume, yep, I think he'll be
27:00
higher owned as well. And the great and here a lot of familiar faces,
27:03
a lot of people hanging out. David's in here as well. What's
27:07
going on? Let's keep it rolling, Big Marley. Next fight on the
27:10
card, we have uh fairra Zeum Claudio Poias class of styles right here.
27:17
Minus one ninety five is Zeum. One plus one seventy is Poias. We
27:22
have this fight minus one thirty to finish far As Zem plus one sixty five
27:26
Claudio Poiez plus three hundred. Looking at the odds in this one, far
27:30
As Zeum one of the lowest owned in the upper tier at fourteen percent.
27:34
Claudio Poia is at seventeen percent. Now, I wouldn't even be surprised if
27:37
Poyas was a little higher owned due to the lack of dogs down low solid
27:42
inside the distance prop we have a kickboxer against a guy that's gonna roll around
27:48
and try and grab your leg and take your leg off. Marley, I'll
27:52
throw it to you. Is it gonna look like Dan Hooker who pieces him
27:53
up forever? Or is Poye is gonna find the leg be able to stay
27:56
on top and win that one. So I'm picking Pueis to get a submission
28:04
in this one. He's not a really good wrestler and he's gonna get picked
28:10
apart on the feet, So he is submission or bust here. But I
28:12
think if he gets the submission, it's more likely early than late, and
28:18
at seventy five hundred dollars, he's got a really good chance of breaking the
28:21
slate if he gets a first round submission. So I just prefer to be
28:23
on his side, whereas Zium is almost like first round knockout or bust at
28:30
eighty seven hundred dollars because you're not going to expect him to go out there
28:33
and look for takedowns because that's where he puts himself in danger. And he's
28:37
also not a knockout artist, so man, it's hard to want to pay
28:42
eighty seven hundred dollars for him. But at the same time, I don't
28:47
think that Pueis can go a full three rounds with this guy's striking if the
28:52
takedowns are not there. I just feel like he's going to look for a
28:53
way out at altitude at some point, and Zium finds a way to a
28:57
TKO finish in the second or the third round. What does the second or
29:02
the third round do enough? Though? At eighty seven hundred dollars, I
29:04
don't even know. So I would rather just be underweight. I won't say
29:10
fade Zim because I do want a little bit of exposure, like with one
29:12
fifty, but I don't see me getting to him with my ten to twenty
29:17
handbuilds. And then on the playside, I will be overweight to him.
29:21
I put him at seventeen all for sure, be overweight to seventeen, but
29:26
you're right, I could see him being around twenty, maybe even a little
29:30
bit higher than twenty, but I'll be overweight to that too. And it's
29:33
not that I feel good about him winning. It's just that I feel good
29:36
about his chances of winning are going to be submission. It's probably gonna be
29:38
early. Bu Zium has been submitted by lesser grapplers before, so I think
29:44
Pays is very live early in the time. Yeah, you pretty much said
29:47
the exact same thing that I was writing my write up. So and this
29:51
I was like, Zum's gonna get completely overlooked in this range eighty seven hundreds
29:55
solid price plus one sixty five inside the distance solid, Like I'm good with
30:00
that. But then i'm writing it up, I'm like, it feels like
30:03
he's first round or bus So then I go look at the first round prop
30:07
and he's plus it took a little money plus four to fifty. Now it
30:11
was plus five fifty when I looked, but still plus four fifty, Like
30:15
I mean, I'm scared about the light kicks. But even if he gets
30:18
a knockdown on Poias, Poise can fall to his back and just chill there
30:22
like Oliver against Gaechee, Like what's z I'm gonna do? Jump in the
30:26
guard like it's really tough to finish guys like that. You can. Of
30:29
course, Delima kicked off his leg off like last week. I do think
30:33
like kick by tkoh if you getting real exact is in play there, But
30:37
I'm changing ZM to a fade Headham is underweight. I'm gonna fade him now
30:41
on twenty entry in below get a little do Santos that I was gonna get
30:45
the z M route, But like I said, I'm on the Poia side
30:48
too, especially in dfs, like if he wins, you'll take any win
30:52
as a dog, Like if you told me right now, I can predict
30:55
the future seventy five hundred below. You tell me a dog wins, I
30:59
very well might even have one hundred percent. Not saying that's the right move,
31:02
but I could see it kind of like last week. Not many of
31:04
these cheap dogs win with a lot of big favorites up top. POI is
31:08
very live, fits DK scoring very well if he grabs an ankle something like
31:12
that. I think ZM is first rounder. Bus if you tell me it's
31:15
a second round, ko is that eighty five ninety? Of course it can
31:19
be over one hundred. Like I wouldn't full faded if I knew he was
31:22
gonna get a second round finish. But I still think there's plenty of routes.
31:26
It's not on the optimal Brandon Moreno's one hundred dollars more. The Ortega
31:30
fight is two hundred dollars less. There's still manual toras like there's a lot
31:34
of other big boy fights with big boy ceilings in that in this range.
31:40
Yeah, I'm fading ZM. I like the pois aside for sure, wouldn't
31:42
be surprised if he gets a little steam twenty percent something like that, But
31:45
I'm still playing them with the lack of dogs we have. So yeah,
31:49
no ZM for me, and we see this fight very similar. I think
31:52
he probably his first round or bust. That doesn't mean I would go be
31:56
betting pois Is because at range, I think that like its gonna bee a
32:00
POI his problems early. I think he probably is more likely for an early
32:02
finish than a late finish because if he gets it on the mat, I
32:06
think he eventually subs them. But I'd be surprised, like do you see
32:10
him getting like a three takedowns, one each round, ten minutes of control
32:15
time? Like can do you see him winning like that? Because I struggle
32:19
to no. I mean, especially at elevation, I just don't think he's
32:22
gonna have really any wrestling cardio, you know, the last half of this
32:28
fight. But if somehow he did win a decision, I mean it's gonna
32:32
come on the ground, So it would mean he controlled this fight for probably
32:36
nine plus minutes and does have three plus takedowns. So yeah, I mean,
32:40
I just don't see that happening, but it's in play, I guess,
32:44
yeah, for sure. Yeah, it's pois aside for sure for me
32:45
in DFS, if you do want if you have all chalk to five rounders
32:50
manual torres like you're eating all the chalk, I think playing zim is a
32:53
fine way there to get different in those bills, But it'll take me over
32:58
twenty line ups to get to any z what's going on, Marquee? Hope
33:00
you're doing well, my man, keep it rolling. Next fight on the
33:04
car thirteen to talk about. This is the fight with the only weight misses.
33:08
Edgar Charas, Daniel Liserta da Silva whatever it may be. Minus one
33:13
five fifteen is Tarres plus three ninety on the way back is Lacerta. This
33:17
fight is minus six hundred to finish. Chara is minus two sixty five inside
33:22
the distance, Daniel Aserta plus four hundred and again Chara's missedweight by five pounds,
33:29
Leserta one pound. I don't know, we'll see if this fight stays
33:32
on, If anybody in here if anyone sees that it's canceled or has any
33:37
update, let us know. But man, Marley, so I wrote this
33:42
fight up. It feels like I've wrote up like ten Aserta fights that never
33:44
came to fruition. These guys fought in September. Chris Tanyoni, donkey,
33:51
come on, man clear, Guillotine in Deserta is gonna tap eventually, Tinoni
33:55
steps in. No contests, They're gonna run it back. A month after
33:59
knocked over, the Silva pulls out on way in day. Now the USC
34:04
still wants to see this fight for some reason. Hopefully we get it this
34:07
week, no guarantee. Now the line has definitely swelled from when it was
34:12
last time. He was in the minus three hundred range. Now it's minus
34:15
five fifteen. What we know about this fight, though, Iszanniel Aserta is
34:20
a mad man. At least he was, he's been a mad man.
34:23
But against that first Charas fight, he did slow the pace down a little
34:27
bit. He didn't come out guns blazed in. He was a little more
34:30
controlled, but he just got picked apart all day. So his best chance
34:34
of victory's be the old Leserta he knocked out Moronto down at ZJ. Bergara
34:38
on the ropes in the first round. Another shoot the box guy with no
34:42
cardio. Now it's at elevation, so the cardio is even worse. Chia
34:45
is by far one of the best plays on the slate. Not telling you
34:49
anything you don't know, though, forty four percent we have that Charres,
34:52
fourteen percent at Leserta. I'm definitely playing a lot of Charres and fourteen percent
34:58
Aserta man, he's still dangerou, he can crack, he's fast. If
35:01
he does win, it's probably in the first round, and you definitely need
35:06
him on the slates. So even though I don't like playing plus three ninety
35:08
dogs, when he wins, it's gonna be optimal. I'll play some,
35:14
definitely like the Chara side though. One of the best fights to target.
35:15
How do you see it? Yeah, definitely a fight that will probably be
35:21
important on DraftKings. Minus six hundred implies that this fight ends early or just
35:27
over eighty five percent of the time, so I feel like that's probably where
35:30
I'm gonna max My ownership is around the eighty five percent because I do want
35:34
some some with the fade on this fight because of a Chyres win and just
35:39
not getting there. I mean, let's say you got that the Guilla team
35:43
in the first fight and he won, he gets ninety five points. You
35:45
don't want that, Yeah, yeah, at ninety three hundred, we don't
35:47
really want that. At eighty seven hundred, it would have been cool the
35:51
last time they were fighting, but at ninety three hundred now now that might
35:54
not be enough. So I do want to fade this in a few of
35:59
my lineups, But at the same time, I expect it to end in
36:01
the first seven minutes or so. Laserta is a very good, explosive,
36:07
fast fighter for three or four minutes, and that's at sea level. Now
36:14
we're at elevation, so maybe we're cutting that in half. Maybe he's got
36:15
a solid two minutes in this fight, but if he wins, it's gonna
36:20
be in that first two minutes and he's gonna break the slate. I also
36:24
think, man, what I'm worried about is that Chyras has bad takedown defense.
36:30
So if La Serata's like trying to change up his style, go out
36:32
there wrestle this guy. Maybe I'll have some success. He'll land two three
36:36
takedowns in that first round. But then he's gonna have nothing left and then
36:38
Chyrez will finish him in the second round and score eighty points and then kill
36:43
all my lineups. So that's kind of my point to fade it in some
36:45
lineups. But Chyres after the first let's say three minutes of this fight,
36:51
I expect the skill gap to start closing, and then it'll be a Chyra's
36:55
skill gap. The longer this fight goes, and I don't see it going
36:59
to the third round that Chyros could knock him out. I believe Lasa has
37:04
been knocked out or t k o't anyways four times, and then Chiro's was
37:07
gonna submit him the last time they fought. Uh Lasira has been submitted once,
37:12
So either way, I think Chyros is gonna finish him at some point,
37:15
probably in that second round. But will he score enough if he loses
37:19
that first round, I would say he's not gonna score enough. But if
37:22
he goes out there and he's the better fighter in the first round, he
37:24
could He could also get the first round finish, of course, and then
37:28
he's gonna score well. But if he wins the firm, then he finishes
37:31
in the second round. Do you think that is gonna be enough. The
37:34
thing is that pretty much was the CJ. Bergara fight. I mean,
37:37
Errgaro is running circles for his life, getting dominated in the first round,
37:40
and then the second round Bergara out lands him seventy four to five significant sdrikes
37:46
with some top control, and I CJ put up a pretty big score there.
37:51
I don't know if it was one, I'd have to go back,
37:52
but Lacerta show kind of toughness in that fight. Seventy four significant strikes.
37:58
Obviously you need the rough to go on a little bit too and get that.
38:01
So I'm not saying I don't think you'd be completely dead. But if
38:05
you tell me right now, Charles gets a second round finish at this ownership,
38:07
I don't want any of this fight, no doubt about that. But
38:10
if you look at the odds at some books, Bobattam minus one twenty five
38:15
this fight to finish in the first round, I do think that is the
38:19
more likely outcome. Now. I do like your point, though I'll kind
38:22
of gets broad slate overview. I have four fights. I love this fight,
38:27
Tours Duncan, and the two five rounders. I'm gonna make a rule
38:30
to have at least two of those fights in all my builds. Now,
38:34
that's not a hot like, that's not like wow, what a rule that
38:37
is or anything. I'm just making sure I get at least two of them.
38:39
But at least two means I can fade this fight in some I can
38:43
fade the Duncan or whatever. I'll probably have at least three of them in
38:45
a lot of lineups. If you're playing four of them, I think you
38:49
should go with Duncan or Leserta probably at least one of those spots, because
38:52
then you're just really jamming chalk and have to get different elsewhere. But by
38:57
far four favorite fights on the card. This fight tours in two five rounders.
39:01
I'm just making her rule at least two of them, and yeah,
39:05
I'll have some fight faith for all the reasons you said if it goes like
39:07
last fight. But sort of did. Like he didn't come out like he
39:10
all like he has in the past against alt Morano, against CJ et cetera.
39:15
He slowed the pace down. He tried to because he knows he doesn't
39:17
have cardio, trying to fight like the Terrence McKinney against uh, why is
39:23
that name going past me? Who who did McKinney take down in the first
39:28
round control and then second round comes out he has died or he got taken
39:32
down and submitted. Whoever it was, it was on the card that the
39:36
chick broke her arm. Yeah but Sarah crew but yeah, yeah, side
39:40
cout something like that. But anyway, you saw McKinney come out and he
39:45
literally talked about it after Romano, So I don't freaking know he talked about
39:51
said said Kay said, Kyle, there we go. Thank you, Tyler,
39:54
thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you. But he
39:58
came out and he literally talked about f to that fight, like he changed
40:00
his style because of like how coaches were saying, like be more composed.
40:05
It was that fight. I believe, No, it was a bomb them
40:07
fight. I think he talked about anyway, you have seen fighters like that
40:09
who come out guns blazed in most fights, try and be more reserved.
40:14
It doesn't work for him. They go back to the old one. That
40:15
is what we saw in the first Tyro's fight. If Licerta comes out that
40:20
way, I think this fight has a chance to bust for sure, if
40:22
it gets to the second round. Not even close to guarantee to be on
40:25
the optimal ninety three hundred, but I'll be making a role at least two
40:30
of them, and I definitely will have a good amount of this fight.
40:32
I love the Chara's side though a lot more than Lecerta, like forty four
40:36
percent. I still think I want to be overweight on Charis because I mean,
40:39
Liert is just free right now. He just gives three points three hundred
40:44
pluses. I think Charas does get a first round finish here, so great
40:46
fight to target, no doubt about that. If it does stay on the
40:50
card. Monitor that with Chyra's missing by five pounds, assert to one pound,
40:54
and people will at like the weight miss doesn't do anything for me.
40:58
I'm trying to read it like Marley I talked about a good amount of trying
41:01
to read into weight misses and stuff is pretty tough. And five pounds is
41:05
like did he even try? Like is he gonna? Is he saving his
41:08
energy? Like the lay of the fight goes, is gonna have more stamina
41:12
because he didn't cut those five pounds? I don't know, So yeah,
41:15
give me the Charis side. Great fight to target, though, let's keep
41:19
it going. Next fight on the card mateus Modonka taking on Jesus agular Anddonka
41:24
eighty four hundred Eggular seventy eight hundred. This fight is minus one thirty two
41:30
on the Modonka side eg R plus one twelve minus one eighty for this fight
41:36
to finish both guys plus one seventy five inside the distance. I really like
41:40
this fight, and this is another reason I think that Bonder Rodriguez fight.
41:46
I might go underweight on it the more I talk about it, because I
41:49
like this fight a lot more than that fight as well. I prefer side
41:52
is the ag Yar side. I love the six hundred dollars savings. A
41:55
lot of it is game theory. Plug build a lineup, plug in Madonna
42:00
take Madonka out. Plug an egg Yar can cut plenty of dupes. I
42:04
don't think you're really giving up much. I'm actually on the a Yar side.
42:07
He's very short, no reach, so he's definitely gonna be giving up
42:10
stuff there. But man, he throws overhands clip no no chin s hand
42:15
and ross. He clipped him, but he can wrestle, solid grappling.
42:19
I think he can get top control in this one as well. Mindonka,
42:22
I don't know. Man, definitely wasn't impressed against Nate Maness absolutely got dominated
42:28
that one, trying to go for the heel hook. Give me the a
42:30
Yar side on this one. I do think Mondonka's fine, but again,
42:35
the teams plugging Madonca take him out plugging a yar. I'll be doing a
42:38
lot of that with my stuff. What about you. Yeah, I'm on
42:43
the same side. I like Aguie lar in this one, and I definitely
42:49
like him more than the Bondar Rodriguez fight. I'll have more of him than
42:53
both of them, for sure, But I don't know about them mondonsa side.
42:58
I might have more that ranged fight over him because I'm picking Aguilar to
43:02
win where I'm just not sure on the other one. But what I do
43:07
think that Mendonza is the better striker here for sure. I also think he's
43:12
the better wrestler, as in, like he could go out there and land
43:19
two out of three takedowns in this fight, you know, sixty six sixty
43:24
takedown accuracy. But I think Aguilar is more of the type of that land
43:30
five out of eighteen type of takedowns, and I would rather have that guy
43:34
because he's just gonna be hard to deal with. He's not gonna go out
43:37
there and accept a striking match with Mendonza, so I think he's gonna be
43:40
looking to chain wrestle, and if he fails his first five, he's still
43:44
gonna be going for six, seventh, and eighth, and if he wins,
43:47
most of that work is gonna come on the ground. I think he's
43:50
live for the submission in any round. Actually, he when he fought Edgar
43:55
Chirez on this card, he was just he was taking him down over and
44:00
over and over early in the fight, just not giving him any any second
44:02
to breathe, and then he ended up getting a guillotine in the fifth round
44:07
of that fight. So even at altitude, I think Aguilar is live for
44:09
a third round sub or even three rounds of wrestling and win this fight.
44:15
So he's gonna be my preferred play, my leverage play. I will be
44:17
underweight to mentone Venotza that Mendonza, but I think he's live for the knockout.
44:23
It's just he probably needs it, especially if he's spending time on his
44:27
back, So underweight to him. Give me the underdog to win this one.
44:30
I love it two for two on that one. Definitely will have a
44:32
lot of ag r in this one at seventy eight hundred and easy stuff.
44:37
Like I said, I'll repeat it one more time. I'm a mad.
44:40
A duplication sport, a unique sport you have. If you leave zero dollars
44:45
on the table, I would try and get in a low owned fighter.
44:47
If you're just jamming all the chalk in it, you can split, You
44:51
can win and split with everyone. Which hey, if you told me the
44:53
winner will be this lineup and it'll split a million ways, you still play
44:57
it, but you don't know what's gonna happen. So when you win,
45:00
how much do you win? Is how I try and play the MMA game
45:04
and how I recommend it. So love the seventy eight hundred egg yard.
45:07
Leave six hundred on the table from Mandaco, or even four hundred on the
45:10
table, whatever it may be, is how I'll be playing this fight like
45:14
the aer side. Glad you're on that side as well. Keep it rolling.
45:17
Next fight on the card, Hani Barcellos taking on Christian Cononas Barcellos minus
45:24
one six. It depends where you look always price shot Fandle Barcello's minus one
45:29
ninety two bet online minus won sixty three. Christian Cononas is taking some money
45:35
this morning plus one forty three on the way back for him looking at the
45:38
odds or looking at the inside of the distance prop minus two hundred, we
45:43
have Barcello's plus one fifteen Connonas plus two forty. This fight is eighty six
45:50
hundred and seventy six hundred Barcello's fifteen percent, and we have Cononas at nineteen
45:54
percent. Well, if that's the case, I'm definitely gonna be playing coonas
46:00
like as as much upside as anybody in the lower tier. Plus two forty
46:05
inside the distance is solid, he can crack, he has power fits on
46:08
the feet. I think it's gonna be competitive. He was my pick.
46:13
I guess I do like seeing the line go his way because it makes me
46:15
feel better about my pick. I don't like it going that way because I
46:20
think ownership probably goes up the more it does go down. And if that's
46:23
the case, man, maybe Rightoni's the play right here at eighty six hundred
46:29
plus one fifteen inside the distance, I think he has wrestling upside in this
46:32
one. If he doesn't like how it's going on the feet, I mean
46:36
he can wrestle. I think that's the easiest path to victory on this one
46:38
minus two hundred to finish. I like this fight. I do know that
46:42
I want to be overweight on it. I pick Cononas still my pick.
46:46
But man, if he's going to be more popular, which I do think
46:49
he will be, and if the line keeps going his way, this might
46:52
be the leverage spot. If you're eating the five round chalk towards chalk whatever,
46:55
bugging in Barcells can get you a little different. So what are your
46:58
thoughts here? Yeah, I don't really know on this one. I think
47:05
that Barcellos is the better fighter all around. If this is a fifteen minute
47:08
striking match, it's probably pretty close. But I would side with Barcellos there.
47:14
But like you mentioned, Quinonas has good hands and he's got power to
47:16
Barcelos been knocked out at least once, maybe twice I think, in the
47:21
last couple of his losses. So Quinonas is live for ae hundred point knockout
47:24
win in this one. But if he's gonna win a decision, I wouldn't
47:29
expect him to score much more than ten x and I don't think he's taking
47:32
Barcelos down, not even once. Would be my guess. But on the
47:37
Barcelos side, it's that is he gonna spend a lot of time striking in
47:40
this match. If he is, then I don't really like him. But
47:44
his biggest advantage, and well, the reason I'm picking him to win a
47:46
unanimous decision is because I think he could go out there and wrestle in every
47:51
round. And if that's the case, then he has not only could he
47:53
finish the fight on the ground, but even in the decision, he could
47:57
score over ten x. So I would say this is gonna be one where
48:00
I'm not gonna make it a point to get them into my handbuilds. But
48:05
if I'm overweight to both sides in my one fifty, I'd be totally okay
48:09
with that. And I don't think they're gonna get a whole lot of ownership,
48:12
so it won't take much to get overweight. But with my prediction,
48:16
I feel like Barcelos goes out there, wins to maybe three rounds by mixing
48:22
in a little bit of wrestling, and he probably scores around eighty points.
48:24
Eighty points I'd rather just pass on. So I'm not sure on this one.
48:29
I put it as a three star. I might move it to four.
48:30
I might move it to two. I'm not sure. I haven't even
48:34
written this one up yet, so it'll be up on shipping nation dot Com
48:37
within the next couple hours. And I don't know, you might be able
48:43
to sell me with your right off. I'll be going to checking yours out,
48:45
and if you're overweight, it might be able to push me a little
48:47
bit overweight too. I'm gonna be overweight because Barcelo's right in between. So
48:52
you got yeah, you're at eighty five hundred, you have Moreno, eighty
48:55
eight hundred. I know I don't want zm right there, like eighty six
49:00
hundred for minus plus one fifteen inside the distance with wrestling upside at fifteen percent,
49:05
even though I didn't even pick him to win, Like, there's no
49:07
way I'm gonna say no to that when I know a lot of my line
49:09
is we'll be eating chalk. I'm playing at least two of those four fights.
49:14
I like like that ownership. Get if Zo's fourteen percent, Barcellos fifteen
49:17
percent. Which one do you think has more upside? Marley? Like,
49:24
I mean, for me, it's easy Barcellos he has the wrestling upside,
49:28
he has better inside the distance prop by like fifty cents. Yeah, I
49:30
would say I'm more cheaper. I don't know. It's kind of different because
49:32
I feel like more likely upside is Barcelos, but Quinonas's upside puts him on
49:38
the OPTA on lineup, whereas Barcellos, I don't know, he still got
49:42
to compete with these other guys who can score well up top, and I
49:45
think if Quinonas wins a fight, it's probably a first round not out.
49:50
I love Cono. Yeah, I'll definitely be playing Cononas even Tho. If
49:52
he's the Donkey side, he's gonna be twenty one percent or whatever. It
49:55
kind of comes down to, like the playlists though, Like I just don't
49:59
like many dogs this card I'll be eating. I'll probably be eating chalk dogs
50:04
on this card and having them sprinkle. Hione fading one of the five rounders
50:08
fading or going Duncan. I mean, Sheets talked about a lot. I'll
50:12
definitely be having Duncan over Tours in a lot of lineups at that ownership discount.
50:15
Not that I don't like Tours either, but you have to think of
50:19
the ownership route. I'm definitely gonna be playing Barcelos at eighty six hundred to
50:22
get different, my preferred play is kenonez. He might be like twenty four
50:27
percent. I wouldn't be surprised if he got some steam, especially with this
50:30
line going his way on a card that's tough for dogs though, so I'll
50:34
be overweight on this fight. My last question on this one, Barcelos gets
50:37
a finish TKO or submission I hate like I would say submission his biggest edge
50:45
in this in this fights his submission grappling in my opinion, but he doesn't
50:47
use it as much as I would like him too. If I was his
50:51
coach, it would be submission for sure, But I don't know. I
50:53
would say it's kind of a toss up with the way he fights. Bet
50:57
online has both at plus three twenty five, so I pick pick whatever method
51:00
you want and then and it has plus two to fifty for decision, so
51:05
very I mean he can win any three ways. The books have a pretty
51:07
close a lot of other books have the KO prop a little better than the
51:13
submission prop. But yeah, I mean, I think on that pretty interesting
51:15
because if he wrestles, I think the submission more likely than a TKO round
51:20
and pounds something like that, So that was my lean as well. Kenona
51:23
Is definitely has the power there, but I'll be overweight on this fight.
51:27
Barcellos low own. I prefer him over Zeum. I'll use him in lineups
51:30
to get difference. I'm picking Canona's to win by knockout, though, Dicky
51:35
chins Barcellos, who's getting a little up there in age. Keep it rolling.
51:39
Next fight, the big fight on the card, Chets giving away a
51:44
monthly membership again. If you do want that membership, say why. I
51:46
know someone in chat already talked about it. Big Marley will be picking a
51:51
winner at the end. Very big fight in this one and cheats. Favorite
51:53
play on the slate Chris Duncan, Manuel Torres Chris Duncan minus one eighty six
51:59
for Torres plus one sixty one for Duncan. The or the pricing eighty three
52:04
hundred is Torres, seventy nine hundred is Duncan. The odds in this fight
52:08
minus six fifty for to finish tours minus one fifty Duncan plus two hundred.
52:15
It's a game theory play. This is why Sheets talked about it. We
52:17
have ownership right now in this one at Torres at forty one percent and Chris
52:22
Duncan at twenty seven percent eighty three hundred seventy nine hundred and four hundred ownership
52:29
gap. Torres is definitely under price in terms of money line value and inside
52:34
the distance value, like minus one fifty. That's the same as Nimov.
52:37
That's better than Brandon Moreno, that's better than or Teg Yeah, year all
52:42
of that. So he's gonna be played very heavily at eighty three hundred and
52:45
MMA, how do you get different? Play the other side in a good
52:49
fight, the lower own side. I probably will have more Chris Duncan than
52:52
Taurres. Now when I'm breaking down this fight and watching tape, I picked
52:57
Torres because I think he's gonna push a pace. The dude throws bombs.
53:00
I think he lands on the chin. What I think happens though, is
53:04
trying. Is not really how I play DFS. I play when I win,
53:07
how much do I win? And I do think Duncan is the sharp
53:09
side in DFS with game theory, with leverage, can also build a team.
53:15
Plug in Torres, take Torres out, play Duncan leave four hundred right
53:20
there. He just cut out ownership and left money on the table. That
53:23
is stuff I look to do. You can break it down how you want,
53:27
Big Marley. It's a great fight to target again. I will have
53:30
at least two of this fight, the charist fight and the main events,
53:35
so I'll have some of this fads. But I love this fight. It's
53:37
the most likely to finish on the card. Duncan is my preferred DFS play.
53:43
I'm picking Tores though, but hey, that's what happens. Yeah,
53:46
I would actually say, if I had to go on any fight, this
53:52
is it. I don't think I will be one hundred percent on any fight,
53:54
but I probably want ninety plus percent of this fight. I mean,
53:59
it's expected to end inside the distance eighty seven percent of the time, and
54:06
both sides have have just big time slate breaking up side Torrez at only eighty
54:10
three hundred. That's a good price for a guy who is plus one fifty
54:15
to knock out his opponent in the first round. And I don't even know
54:21
what's his ITD line in the first minus one fift. So now we got
54:24
a sixty percent chance of finishing the fight in the first round. So damn,
54:31
that's kind of you. That's where I like to be. I want
54:32
to be like sixty percent. I just want to match his first round line
54:36
I think because if he gets the first round knockout or even a first round
54:38
submission at eighty three hundred dollars, I think he's got a really good chance
54:44
at the optimal lineup. So let's say i go sixty percent Torres, because
54:49
that's what I'm picking to happen first round knockout, and really it's a lot
54:52
of recency buyas too. To that elbow in his last fight was one of
54:54
the nastiest knockouts I've ever seen it, and I loved it, so I
54:59
was like, that come up a little bit for me. So but if
55:02
he does not get that first round knockout, not only is Duncan alive to
55:06
get a first round knockout himself, but the longer this goes, the more
55:09
I would expect it to play into Duncan's favor. And he's the wrestler in
55:14
this one. If if we're getting a gassed Torres in the second and the
55:16
third round, Duncan can probably do whatever he wants with them on the ground
55:20
and he could score one hundred and twenty plus points. So that's why I
55:23
kind of want to be one hundred percent on this fight. Give me sixty
55:25
Torres forty percent Duncan and get overweight to both sides. But I could also
55:31
see just Torres. I don't know what's the case for this not being on
55:36
the optimal lineup, actually, because I'm the more I talk about, the
55:38
more I want one hundred percent. Duncan always fought the past couple fights using
55:44
wrestling clinch control, cage control, try and press it up against and not
55:47
stay at range, and yeah seven six in his last fight, I would
55:54
have thought it was more than that. And dude broke his arm early in
55:58
that fight too, like and then against Morale is like he's coming off the
56:00
antenna series as this guy a punching power, all this takes him down five
56:05
times and like puts on the wrestling shoes. So I do see a path.
56:09
I actually like that Charres assertive fight a little more than this fight,
56:14
not necessarily the prices, I guess, which takes me back a little bit,
56:17
and which is why I'm not going all in on any of these fights
56:20
on a thirteen fight car. But that's how I see the path is Duncan
56:23
trying to play it greasy clinch control, slow the pace down a little bit
56:28
in that way. Yeah, and there are lots of live underdogs on this
56:30
car, so yeah, I could get down with that. But still I'm
56:34
closer to like, give me ninety percent of this fight. This is my
56:37
favorite of all the fights because before their priced, and I think that we're
56:42
gonna get a hundred points from the winner in this one, so I'm loading
56:45
up my pick. Though Torre's first round knock out, I like it.
56:49
We got five fights left. I've been I know you got to get your
56:52
kid in fifteen minutes. We've talked a lot about these fights. We're gonna
56:55
keep it rolling rapid fire through these last five and again, all the content
57:00
will be up at shipitanation dot com. We appreciate you Whaler hanging out with
57:04
us. Next fight on the card Yasmin Hereguai taking on Sam Hughes's biggest favorite
57:08
on the card is Yasmin at minus six hundred and the highest price at ninety
57:12
five hundred taking in Sam Hughes plus four twenty five and sixty seven hundred.
57:16
This fight is plus one thirty five to finish with all the finish equity on
57:22
the Yasmin side at plus one twenty five compared to Sam Hughes at plus sixteen
57:27
hundred. I will say this fight or Yasmin was plus one fifty earlier in
57:30
the week inside the distance has taken a little money to finish. We have
57:35
her at fourteen percent or twelve percent, excuse me, and Sam Hughes at
57:38
seven percent. I'll throw it to you with the question of I think Yasmin's
57:44
gonna win. She's just I think she's gonna keep it on the feet.
57:46
Tell me if you think I'm wrong. So does she need a first round
57:50
knockout in this one? And do you think it's worth playing the biggest favor
57:52
at the highest priced at twelve percent ownership because she definitely has one ton plus
57:59
upside? But I guess the other question, I'll say, is there enough
58:01
value in dogs on this card to make that work? So I don't I'm
58:06
not playing Sam Hughes. I'm really curious to take your take on Yasmin.
58:09
I'm keeping her in the pool and I'm playing her in chalk your lineups to
58:14
try and get different, But man, it's definitely tough. Leaven some money
58:17
and Yasmin teams, which is stuff I like to do. So what do
58:20
you see on this one? Yeah, I'm gonna fade all right, Devin
58:23
on, Devin, I'm I'm I put this up here. So if she
58:27
does on the optimal, I'm gonna get a video this one. Yeah,
58:31
I'm gonna be fading, Hughes, and I do I will be overweight on.
58:35
I like to call her war Aggy. I'm just really high on.
58:38
That's probably that's probably right. I think it's your eggy or something like that.
58:43
But you're right. And no, I don't think she needs a first
58:46
round knockout because in her second UC fight she scored one hundred and twenty nine
58:52
DraftKings points with the second round knockout, and I think that's in play here.
58:55
I mean, this is the worst striker in this matchup. Okay,
58:59
So Sam Hughes, her insurance into the UFC was fighting t Sha Torres.
59:05
T Sha Torres has like like twenty five fights something like that, and she's
59:09
knocked out, got a TKO one time. And that's that's Sam Hughes right
59:13
here, WHEREGGI is so much more dangerous, so much of a better striker
59:16
than t Sha Torres. I just love this girl's striking. I've even said
59:22
that she's potential title contender. She's coming off of a bad knockout, so
59:25
I was really hoping to get a decent line on her coming in here,
59:29
but now she's still minus six hundred, so apparently other people really like her
59:32
as well. I don't think the field will be on her at ninety five
59:37
hundred dollars. She is gonna need a knockout at some point, or at
59:39
least multiple knockdowns in order to pay that off, because she's not gonna go
59:45
out there and look to wrestle. She can't strike at a high pace,
59:47
but not high enough to pay off a ninety five hundred dollars price tag in
59:51
a decision with no knockdowns. But I'm predicting that she gets a TKO in
59:55
this fight. I think I picked the third round, which does make me
1:00:00
not really like her as much. But I think she's live to get a
1:00:02
first round knockout, live to get a second round knockout, and more live
1:00:06
than the field thinks she is to get the knockout. So I will be
1:00:08
overweight to WARREGGI I will even get her in my handbuilds. I'll make it
1:00:12
a point to get her in a couple of handbills, to be honest with
1:00:14
you, but give me WAREGGI to just pick Hughes apart and probably to a
1:00:21
point where they're refacing enough and he steps in. Yeah, I really hope
1:00:24
so, because I want to see Devin Davis eat Ashue. That'd be pretty
1:00:29
interesting. I said underweight for Yasvin, but I was going to keep her
1:00:32
my pool and Kapra fifteen percent, but fifteen percent would be overweight. So
1:00:37
I'll probably be somewhere around the field. Use her and chalk your lineups with
1:00:42
the two five rounters, with the Torres of the world and more than mid
1:00:45
tier, while I have the value and I'll use her to get different and
1:00:47
maybe one other spot. Leave some money on the table. But like I
1:00:51
like Taras a lot more, like the five rounders a lot more. I
1:00:53
like leaving money on the table. All of that's really hard to do at
1:00:58
ninety five hundred, especially with a lot of big dogs. But that is
1:01:00
why she's coming in at twelve percent, not every day to get a minus
1:01:04
six hundred favorites, biggest favorite on the card at twelve percent, So definitely
1:01:07
we'll be playing a little bit there. Keep it rolling. Next fight on
1:01:10
the card, Ryul Rosas Junior taking on Ricky Tertios minus two to twenty is
1:01:16
Rosaus Junior plus one eighty five is Ricky Tertios de fight is minus one fifteen
1:01:22
to finish Rosas plus one thirty five inside the distance Tertios plus five hundred.
1:01:29
I'm on the Rosaus Junior side. I think the UFC knows what they're doing.
1:01:32
Tertio's poor takedown defense. Rosas Junior one dimensional grappler. He's working on
1:01:37
the striking. But yeah, I mean he knocked out Mitchell. Congrats that
1:01:42
Big Marley's knocking out Mitchell right there. So I think Rosas gets the takedown,
1:01:46
gets to the back, controls it most of the fight. Does he
1:01:51
get the submission? Is the question or a finish in this one, which
1:01:53
I think we probably, I don't know for sure if we need definitely one.
1:01:58
At nine thousand, you can see ultiple takedowns, a lot of control
1:02:00
time. But I'm definitely gonna be playing some Rosas Junior, and I'll be
1:02:05
honest like, I'll be playing some lineups to have five hundred on the table
1:02:07
where I could get up to Yasmin from Ray uhl. But you're skipping a
1:02:12
couple of things. You're leaving money on the table, and I think,
1:02:14
yes, just as much upside with this style. So yeah, I'm on
1:02:17
Rosaus Junior. I think the UFC knows what they're doing. Tertios man,
1:02:21
he's been in some The Heastan fight was fun. Still got taken down seven
1:02:24
times. It's a hobby fight. One of the worst fights you'll ever see.
1:02:29
Haven't seen him fighting a little bit. I put him as underweight,
1:02:32
but I guess I'm gonna throw this to you as well, him or Victor
1:02:36
Altimurano Turkyos for me, Yeah, all right? Cool? Really? Because
1:02:44
all right, so I agree with everything you said. I am on the
1:02:45
Roses side. I think we don't even need the finish. You could go
1:02:49
out there and land takedowns in each round, get ten takedowns even in this
1:02:52
fight, and score well in the decision. I also thank he's a love
1:02:55
for an early submission. And it's all because Turkyos just doesn't have good takedown
1:03:00
defense. And it's probably gonna be a fairly high paced fight. But in
1:03:06
those fights where Turkios was taken down like four and seven times, maybe even
1:03:10
more than that, he went. He won those fights, and he scored
1:03:14
one hundred and twenty and one hundred and fourteen DraftKings points in those fights,
1:03:17
and Roses is nineteen years old. That was the reason I got That was
1:03:22
the reason I picked him over. I was like, at the end of
1:03:23
the day, the dude's still nineteen years old and a lot of there's a
1:03:28
lot of things that can go wrong at nineteen years old against a grown man
1:03:30
at thirty. So that was literally, yeah, I don't a galaxy brain,
1:03:35
whatever it may be, but I know what I was at nineteen years
1:03:37
old. Shit like yeah, yeah, well yeah, no shit, uh
1:03:42
but yeah. I mean I think if Turkios wins his fight, he's gonna
1:03:44
score over ten x and he's got one hundred points potential in his fight,
1:03:47
And it could just be the fact that Roses is nineteen years old. He's
1:03:52
just not ready for the UFC quite yet. He's beat nobody's and Turkios could
1:03:55
beat nobodies as well. So yeah, I just like this fight a good
1:03:59
am. It's gonna be in more lineups than it won't be. But I'm
1:04:06
I'm thinking I'll kind of start my lineups with Roses, start building from their
1:04:11
handbuilds that is, and then if I need to find some salary to move
1:04:15
up elsewhere, I'll move down to Turkyos and then start building a game.
1:04:18
But I'm fine with either one of these sides in my single entry. But
1:04:21
my preferred play is Ross Junior, and I'm picking him to win probably thirty
1:04:27
twenty seven. I mean, I think that the hype is fairly real.
1:04:30
I think that the UFC knows what they're doing. They want this guy to
1:04:32
get the wins, and this is a good matchup for him to do it.
1:04:36
But I'm just worried that there's a lot of questions. I think that
1:04:39
there's a good chance this is on the optimal lineup either way, so I'll
1:04:43
get a good amount to both guys. I like it before we get to
1:04:46
the next fight. We have three fights left. I always saw two people,
1:04:49
Tyler and Brent want the membership, So big Marley, give you a
1:04:54
secon, I'm gonna pick there you go. I was gonna go with Brent
1:04:57
because I like that they're golf as well. No better place to be for
1:05:00
golf than ship at Nation. Hey, there we go, Brent. We
1:05:03
have a very very I would argue the best golf product in the industry.
1:05:09
Definitely not the most expensive by far. Showdowns to gen I mean Hoop.
1:05:14
We saw Hoop and Tambody last week, Dambo sixty k third and the Millionmaker
1:05:17
third or fourth, Hoop two hundred and twenty k whatever it may be.
1:05:21
Another day ending and why for Hoop djen coming over one of the best golf
1:05:26
mines in the industry. Projections ownership Brent Golf, you won the membership,
1:05:30
shout out to our man sheets. Take a picture of your YouTube, ship
1:05:32
it or and then email info at chipinnation dot com and we got brother.
1:05:39
You want a membership, We have a lot of options weekly, monthly,
1:05:43
six month, and annual. Make sure to use that code djen fifteen for
1:05:46
fifteen percent off your membership. And again it's not just MMA, NBA shout
1:05:51
out to a lot of people yesterday, NHL going on as well. MLB
1:05:56
will be here before you know it. Of course, PGA fights left Big
1:06:00
Marley Daniels, El Hubert, Francisco Prato. This one should be a little
1:06:03
bit of fun. Minus two seventy is sal Huber. Plus two thirty is
1:06:08
proto minus one thirty five for this fight to finish, Zel Hubert plus one
1:06:12
fifty inside the distance, Proto plus three twenty five. Looking at the odds
1:06:16
in this one, sal Huber fourteen percent and Proto fifteen percent. I agree
1:06:23
with it, and I had put overweight on both of these guys. Zel
1:06:27
Huber kind of like Hioni Barcelos. I think the upside's there. Long and
1:06:31
lengthy guy plus one fifty inside the distance is good. I think he has
1:06:34
more upside than Zium, and he's gonna be low owned, so I'll use
1:06:39
him and chalk your lineups with the yeah ye otega fight, the main events,
1:06:43
the tours of the world, et cetera. So I'm playing Barcelos inzel
1:06:46
Hubert to get different in the upper tier. I like Prato more, though
1:06:50
in a vacuum, because I just don't like the lower tier options. Proto
1:06:55
hits like a truck. Sal Huber is still very young, he's hit able.
1:06:58
I think product can connect them. I hope want to play as as
1:07:02
Prato are on the Optimal because I'll have a good bit of them. But
1:07:06
how do you see this fight going? And how do you rang sel Huberhyoni
1:07:11
and uh far Zeum. I would go zel Huber's more on the ZM level,
1:07:17
he's kind of a fade for me. So Barcelos first of the three,
1:07:23
and then I don't even care on the next two. They're kind of
1:07:25
just both. I won't get to any zel Hubert and I won't get to
1:07:28
any Zeum with my ten to twenty handbilts. I know that much. But
1:07:31
at the same time, I'm fine keeping them in my one fifty pool.
1:07:36
I would say that zel Huber is the better all around striker, and he
1:07:43
can really strike at a high pace when he wants to, but he I
1:07:47
would only expect him to want to strike in this match. If anyone's looking
1:07:50
for takedowns, in my opinion, it would be Proto. Prato is also
1:07:54
super young. I expect him to improve each time out. He lays some
1:07:59
bombs, so I think Proto's in play for the early knockout, and I
1:08:02
just think that it's if Proto gets the early knockout, he's on the optimal
1:08:05
lineup. If zel Huber gets an early knockout, he's still got to compete
1:08:10
with other people, and if Prado wins a decision, I think he competes.
1:08:14
It's about ten x is where I would see zel Hubert or I'm sorry
1:08:16
Prado. If he wins a decision, maybe a little bit more than ten
1:08:19
x, But if zel Huber wins a decision, definitely give me the under
1:08:24
on ten x here. And I mean, this is the guy who lost
1:08:27
a striking match to a grappler like I just don't trust him that much,
1:08:30
especially at this line. So I'm picking zel Hubert to win because I do
1:08:33
think he is the better minute winner over the course of fifteen minutes staying on
1:08:38
the feet. But my preferred draftings play is definitely going to be Prato.
1:08:42
At seventy three hundred, I don't think he'll get a lot of ownership,
1:08:45
but I think he has one hundred plus point potential. By cracking zel Hubert
1:08:48
early, Christostiago's cracked zel Huber early in the last fight could have finished him.
1:08:54
Maybe Proto does. So I'll be overweight to Prato, I think,
1:08:58
and I will be fading xel Huber in my handbills, but I'll probably still
1:09:01
be underweight with my one fifty. Yeah, we see it the same.
1:09:05
I'm dicking zel Huber. I like the Prido side more for the upside and
1:09:09
the price, and I'm really just playing zel Huber for the ownership when I'm
1:09:12
jamming it a lot of the chalk in a vacuum. He's probably is a
1:09:15
fade for me, but Ziem is gonna be the fain I have him ranked
1:09:18
the last of those three. Definitely big news. Appreciate that Siggy that fight,
1:09:23
Lesertachyras staying on massive, massive news, and Devin fifty seven watching only
1:09:28
seven likes. That is hurtful, no doubt about that. We do appreciate
1:09:30
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1:09:38
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1:09:43
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1:09:47
Two fights left. Marley doesn't have much time, so let's keep it
1:09:50
rolling now here. Rodriguez Brian Ortega comin event five round fight eighty five hundred
1:09:57
is Yeah Year. Seventy seven hundred is Ortega. Yeah Year. Sitting at
1:10:00
minus one forty three plus one twenty three on the way back is Ortega.
1:10:04
This fight's minus two hundred to finish. Yeah Year and Ortega both plus one
1:10:10
seventy inside the distance. A couple quick notes, Ortega open minus one fifty
1:10:15
immediately, Yeah, Year got by two plus or yeah, I got a
1:10:19
lot of buy to minus like two twenty range and then Ortega got some money
1:10:25
on the way back. Has taken some money the past couple of days.
1:10:28
This fight and the main event we're going to talk about is a rematch.
1:10:31
These guys did fight. Both fights did end in a shoulder injury. So
1:10:35
now we get the second time that fight or take it. I mean it
1:10:40
was a close fight. Yeah, Year definitely was picking them apart at range
1:10:44
one for five on takedowns, it was Artega had some top control. Then
1:10:47
first round the shoulder goes out. Some people said because yeah Year had the
1:10:51
armbar in maybe some people say, Fluke, big Marley, how do you
1:10:56
see this fight going? Are you going to be making any rules in these
1:10:59
fights? Not not gonna make any rules, but I do want this and
1:11:02
the majority of my lineups because it's five rounds. If this was a three
1:11:06
round fight, which I thought it was when I first started researching the card,
1:11:12
I was like, Oh, this is one we can get away from
1:11:14
comin event. Big names probably gets a lot of ownership, and I'd be
1:11:16
fine getting away from it with three rounds, but with five rounds, I
1:11:20
would expect the winner, even in the decision, to score ten x or
1:11:27
probably a little bit more. It's just is that gonna cut it. I
1:11:30
don't know. I'm not sure about but they also both have finishing upside.
1:11:34
They're very well rounded, both of them. But Rodriguez is the more dangerous
1:11:39
striker in or Take is the more dangerous grappler. So I really don't have
1:11:44
a preferred play in this one. I'm picking Yaye to win. It's also
1:11:46
in Mexico, which I think helps him a lot if it's on the card,
1:11:50
if it's up to the judges, but I'm probably just gonna start my
1:11:55
handbills with Yaiyir and then start building the rest of my lineup. If I
1:12:00
need the Xtra eight hundred, I'll switch to Ortega even in a single entry.
1:12:03
So I'm absolutely okay with either guy here. I don't really know how
1:12:08
this one's gonna play out. I think it will be close, but I
1:12:11
give the ultimate striking edge to Yayar because Ortega is not a really good wrestler,
1:12:14
So I think most of this fight plays out on the feet. That's
1:12:16
where I favor Yai Yar, it's in Mexico. I favor Aira a little
1:12:19
bit more for that reason. So ultimately I'm picking him to win a decision.
1:12:25
And if I had to put a projection, he's gonna score this many
1:12:28
points in a decision, I would say like eighty nine. Like that,
1:12:31
Maybe that doesn't cut it, but I don't know now, and he does
1:12:34
have much higher ceiling as well, so I don't know what I'm gonna do
1:12:38
with this one. I'll probably be around forty percent on both, and I'm
1:12:42
also fine just making my favorite Yayyear lineup an Ortega lineup and leaving eight hundred
1:12:46
dollars to be a little contrarian. That way gonna be heavy on both sides.
1:12:49
But give me Yayre to win. Yeah, I don't think you could
1:12:53
have said any better. I know you don't got much time, you have
1:12:55
one fight left, but my pick was yeah year. I do not if
1:12:58
I had to pick any fight to go all in on, it would be
1:13:00
this fight. Slightly a lot of it because the pricing, But I'm totally
1:13:03
fine build teams with that year, drop the year Dora Tega, leave eight
1:13:08
hundred dollars. I think that's definitely a way you can get different, but
1:13:12
I do. My pick is yeah, year staying at range, piece him
1:13:15
up right there. Last fight Big Marley Brandon Moreno Brandon Royvel two again.
1:13:19
This one also ended in the shoulder injury. These guys fought a couple of
1:13:23
years ago. Moreno minus two eighty, Rovel plus two forty. This fight's
1:13:27
minus one sixty to finish. Reno plus one twenty five inside of edisance Brandon
1:13:31
Royvel plus three hundred. My take is Brandon Moreno due to wrestling wrestling wrestling,
1:13:38
just like we saw Pantosia. I mean, Revel's game for sure,
1:13:41
not doubt about that short notice. He's training at elevation, so I'm not
1:13:45
too worried. But that man can't stuff a takedown. Moreno can wrestle.
1:13:49
I think Moreno gets the job done, right, do you see it?
1:13:53
Yeah? I like this fight more than the last one, and I would
1:13:57
say this is my second favorite overall fight to target on DraftKings. I'll get
1:14:03
a ton of this fight. Not making a rule to go all in or
1:14:05
anything, but I will be heavy on this fight. I will have one
1:14:10
of them in my core plays over at Shippingnation dot com. I'm picking Brandon
1:14:15
to win. You got to go over there find out which brand in that
1:14:17
is. But they are over there on the core plays. Looking forward to
1:14:20
crushing this card with you and everybody listening. Thank you guys, good luck,
1:14:25
but go sign up man. We got all the sports, best price
1:14:27
around. We're crushing everything. No better place to be, best community as
1:14:30
well, So nothing to not like about Shipping Nation. Oh yeah, we're
1:14:34
growing the merger with djn's awesome. A lot of new faces in the discord.
1:14:39
No better price out there, no better content. Djen fifteen gets you
1:14:43
fifteen percent off, all of the content will be off. And again shout
1:14:46
out Big Marley, best ownership. I'm a mad projections in the industry.
1:14:50
Hi over ship a Nation dot com weekly, monthly, six month, annual
1:14:56
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1:15:00
do mean it's you guys are what drives us. You guys make the show
1:15:02
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1:15:05
Hey, let's win something, Let's shot something big this week and Big
1:15:09
Marley untitled town have a good week and d saying good luck