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What does the NCAA settlement mean for college sports? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 3: No?
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Speaker 4: No, it's relatively quiet out there. And the big stuff
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Speaker 2: So that's what we're going to be eagerly anticipating. If
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Speaker 2: we get something during this hour. Great, We're happy to
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Speaker 2: chat about it. Otherwise it might be a Tomorrow or
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Speaker 2: Wednesday thing. There has been some chatter that these US
2:20
Speaker 2: China talks may drag into tomorrow, and so we'll see
2:25
Speaker 2: where things go. I want to talk a little bit
2:29
Speaker 2: about what's going on with the NC DOUBLEA. So the
2:33
Speaker 2: NC DOUBLEA, if you're not familiar with them, you probably
2:36
Speaker 2: aren't from around here, because they are the organization that
2:39
Speaker 2: runs college sports.
2:41
Speaker 3: And the former governor is the president.
2:44
Speaker 2: Charlie Baker, Yes, former governor of Massachusetts is the president
2:47
Speaker 2: of the NC Double A. Look, I was an NC
2:51
Speaker 2: DOUBLEA athlete. To toot my own horn, I was a
2:54
Speaker 2: very bad kicker on a football team, and that was
3:00
Speaker 2: my experience with the NCAA in my own career. I
3:03
Speaker 2: didn't have anything good or bad to say about them
3:05
Speaker 2: because I was not going to make any money playing
3:07
Speaker 2: college sports. I was a bad kicker on a team
3:11
Speaker 2: that wasn't great either, and so like I didn't have
3:14
Speaker 2: any NIL deals that we're going to be coming down
3:17
Speaker 2: my door anyways. But the last couple of years with
3:20
Speaker 2: the NIL name image and likeness rules that have been
3:24
Speaker 2: in place have kind of turned college sports into the
3:28
Speaker 2: wild West in that you have. And I don't blame
3:31
Speaker 2: the players, by the way, for you know, doing what
3:33
Speaker 2: they're doing. They're going out and saying, hey, how much
3:36
Speaker 2: can you give me for this year? Especially if you're
3:38
Speaker 2: in a you know, contact sport like football where your
3:42
Speaker 2: career could be cut short on any particular play. Yes,
3:46
Speaker 2: you should always be asking who's going to pay me
3:49
Speaker 2: the most in order to let me be there. It's
3:53
Speaker 2: led to some unseemly things like who was it, Like
3:58
Speaker 2: I think it was the quarterback for ULV last year
4:01
Speaker 2: that basically like stopped playing for his team midseason and
4:03
Speaker 2: you know, was rumored to be asking for all these
4:05
Speaker 2: new deals and stuff. But this is by virtue of
4:08
Speaker 2: the way the landscape is currently built today, where there
4:11
Speaker 2: aren't a ton of rules and kids are incented to
4:15
Speaker 2: grab as much as they can as quickly as they
4:17
Speaker 2: can because it could all be over tomorrow. So you
4:21
Speaker 2: have a settlement that was just approved by a federal
4:25
Speaker 2: judge between the NC double A and really it's it's
4:31
Speaker 2: tying together a few cases that were out there. It's
4:33
Speaker 2: called the House versus NC double A settlement, and it's
4:36
Speaker 2: not because this is you know the House of Representatives,
4:40
Speaker 2: or you know Eddie House who played for the Boston
4:44
Speaker 2: Celtics for a couple of years. Rather, House is a
4:47
Speaker 2: former Arizona State swimmer named Grant House who brought a
4:52
Speaker 2: lawsuit in twenty twenty basically saying, hey, I can't earn
4:56
Speaker 2: nil money. And the reason why like House actually had
4:58
Speaker 2: a case on this was, look, people in the swimming
5:01
Speaker 2: community actually knew him. And there was another one a
5:04
Speaker 2: few years before this that it never went to trial,
5:06
Speaker 2: but there was a It was a distance runner who
5:10
Speaker 2: was just fantastic and a water bottle company wanted to
5:13
Speaker 2: pay him for, you know, promoting their product, and he
5:16
Speaker 2: couldn't because of the NCAA, which again to me, is
5:19
Speaker 2: just silliness, silly. And I know that a lot of
5:23
Speaker 2: people listening probably have this like dressed up idea of oh,
5:26
Speaker 2: these are kids who you know, should play for love
5:29
Speaker 2: of the game and this and that and everything, to
5:30
Speaker 2: which I say, okay, fine, Like should the adults that
5:33
Speaker 2: are supervising them coach for the love of the game too,
5:35
Speaker 2: Because last time I checked, college football coaches get paid
5:38
Speaker 2: pretty well, same with college basketball coaches, and even in
5:41
Speaker 2: today's world, like college softball coaches and so like, Yeah,
5:45
Speaker 2: if we want to say it's love of the game,
5:47
Speaker 2: then let's make everyone play for the love of the
5:49
Speaker 2: game and not have a whole bunch of money flowing
5:52
Speaker 2: through institutions that helps to support them in many cases.
5:55
Speaker 4: Likewise, again, was not a collegiate athlete, but how many
6:00
Speaker 4: hours of your week chuck during season were dedicated to
6:03
Speaker 4: requirements that you train.
6:05
Speaker 2: I can't remember what we were capped at. It was
6:07
Speaker 2: something it was either like twenty or thirty hours a
6:09
Speaker 2: week that we were capped at, but it was like
6:11
Speaker 2: it was a heavy lift that you had to do it.
6:13
Speaker 2: It was like having a significant part time job in
6:16
Speaker 2: addition to going to your classes and stuff like that,
6:18
Speaker 2: and still finding time for you know, a beer two
6:20
Speaker 2: here and there. So I think ultimately, when when you
6:24
Speaker 2: look at this, the thing that we first need to
6:26
Speaker 2: admit is that college sports are not for love of
6:29
Speaker 2: the game, and there's nothing amateur about them. The only
6:31
Speaker 2: thing that's been the only thing that's been even pretending
6:35
Speaker 2: to be you know, amateurized there is the fact that
6:38
Speaker 2: the kids haven't been able to get paid because the
6:39
Speaker 2: NC DOUBLEA has prohibited it. And the reason why dates
6:43
Speaker 2: back to the nineteen twenties, thirties and forties, where the
6:47
Speaker 2: nc DOUBLEA, in trying to get out from a bunch
6:49
Speaker 2: of workers comp lawsuits that they were facing from college
6:53
Speaker 2: football players who were getting injured playing football, came up
6:56
Speaker 2: with the term student athlete to say, no, these are
6:58
Speaker 2: not employees of the school. They are student athletes, and
7:02
Speaker 2: so we don't have to pay workers comp. That's literally
7:05
Speaker 2: where the NCAA came up with the tournament it came from,
7:08
Speaker 2: was trying to get out of paying kids money.
7:11
Speaker 4: Further evidence that it's not amateur. What's the primary training
7:14
Speaker 4: source for Olympic athletes in this country?
7:17
Speaker 3: Dan c double a.
7:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's again to toot my own horn, not
7:21
Speaker 2: mine personally, but my schools. The Dartmouth College ski team
7:24
Speaker 2: basically is a good portion of the United States ski
7:27
Speaker 2: team in any particular Winter Olympics. And so when you
7:32
Speaker 2: look at what this means, this settlement effectively allows D
7:37
Speaker 2: one universities to begin directly revenue sharing with their athletes
7:42
Speaker 2: as of July first, So three weeks from now.
7:45
Speaker 3: What do you mean by revenue sharing? Is it just
7:47
Speaker 3: we can pay you a salary?
7:49
Speaker 2: Yes? Okay, So previously you had to come up with these.
7:52
Speaker 2: What they're called is NIL and name, image and likeness collectives,
7:55
Speaker 2: which is basically the school soliciting money from wealthy alumni
7:59
Speaker 2: and everything, saying hey, we'll pay you to represent you know,
8:01
Speaker 2: companies if we can, and then they go around and
8:04
Speaker 2: try to find actual NIL deals, which may or may
8:07
Speaker 2: not actually exist in a lot of cases. In this case,
8:11
Speaker 2: there is a revenue sharing cap where the Division I
8:14
Speaker 2: schools can spend up to twenty point five million dollars
8:18
Speaker 2: in year one, and that number can increase based on
8:21
Speaker 2: how revenue may grow in the future. But that's how
8:24
Speaker 2: much they have to spend on their students. And that
8:29
Speaker 2: cap is in place to try to you know, cap out,
8:31
Speaker 2: you know, to try to form you know, kind of
8:33
Speaker 2: a level playing field. But the NIL world is still
8:36
Speaker 2: going to exist on top of this, and so you know,
8:38
Speaker 2: who knows how level it's actually going to be. Actually,
8:41
Speaker 2: I'll tell you it's not going to be particularly level. Sure,
8:44
Speaker 2: But here's the thing. This still doesn't actually fix the problem.
8:51
Speaker 2: And the problem, in my opinion, is one where the well,
8:59
Speaker 2: there are a couple different ones. In my opinion. The
9:02
Speaker 2: first is there is no incentive for a student or
9:08
Speaker 2: coach to have any kind of long term relationship with
9:11
Speaker 2: a school, and I think that's bad for the viewing
9:14
Speaker 2: experience in a few different ways. And believe me, I
9:17
Speaker 2: don't want kids to be like tethered to a school.
9:19
Speaker 2: Other coaches just you know, globe trot around to wherever.
9:22
Speaker 2: But I want you to think about March Madness just
9:25
Speaker 2: as an example. Mike's not really a huge March Madness fan.
9:28
Speaker 2: He doesn't believe in basketball, but Tucker and I do,
9:31
Speaker 2: and and that's great.
9:32
Speaker 3: True.
9:32
Speaker 4: I love the gambling part of March Madness. I just
9:34
Speaker 4: don't have any interest in watching any of the games.
9:36
Speaker 2: It's fine, which I just love. I love that whole
9:39
Speaker 2: sentence right there. But this March Madness, a couple things
9:44
Speaker 2: were true, Tucker, was this arguably one of the most
9:47
Speaker 2: boring March Madness is as far as upsets confirmed.
9:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was. It was Mike's practice right on.
9:52
Speaker 2: It was a chalk tournament. Guest, if you were a
9:55
Speaker 2: high seed, you were basically moving on aside from like
9:58
Speaker 2: a couple of little upsets here and there. And part
10:00
Speaker 2: of the reason for that now is unlike in prior years,
10:03
Speaker 2: where hey, if you're a good if you're like a
10:06
Speaker 2: great talent that happens to be at a small school.
10:09
Speaker 2: Remember the old transfer rules, you basically had to stay there.
10:12
Speaker 2: Otherwise you had to sit out a year and miss
10:14
Speaker 2: time and YadA YadA, you could build a program at
10:17
Speaker 2: a small school. In today's world, if someone is, you know,
10:21
Speaker 2: a late bloomer who happens to have like a great
10:23
Speaker 2: freshman year, they either end up going to the NBA
10:25
Speaker 2: Draft now or they get scooped up by another program
10:28
Speaker 2: that can pay them more. So, those small mid major
10:30
Speaker 2: schools can't develop the continuity that let those you know,
10:34
Speaker 2: Gonzaga teams of the early two thousands go on runs.
10:37
Speaker 3: Or you know.
10:37
Speaker 4: I have a family member who does fundraising for a
10:41
Speaker 4: local university in the Boston market, and his argument is
10:44
Speaker 4: basically this that, yeah, we will never be able to
10:47
Speaker 4: have a program like that because the second we find
10:49
Speaker 4: a good player, they're gonna go somewhere else. They'll spend
10:51
Speaker 4: a year here if that, and then go somewhere else.
10:53
Speaker 2: Now, I'm not saying that you want to hold those
10:56
Speaker 2: kids down, because I'm a big believer of no. Like,
10:59
Speaker 2: every one has to compete in order to get talent.
11:03
Speaker 2: But the way to do this, in my opinion, is
11:07
Speaker 2: by allowing schools to sign kids two multi year contracts
11:14
Speaker 2: if they want to. So if you are a kid
11:17
Speaker 2: with an uncertain future who doesn't know how great you're
11:20
Speaker 2: gonna be, and you get no one really given you much,
11:23
Speaker 2: but hey, one school says, yeah, we'll give you three
11:25
Speaker 2: hundred thousand dollars for the next you know, three years,
11:28
Speaker 2: but you got to stay for that time period.
11:31
Speaker 3: Great.
11:31
Speaker 2: That allows a school to build a program and develop
11:34
Speaker 2: it while still properly compensating that kid for where they
11:37
Speaker 2: were at that time. Remember, no, like NBA player NFL
11:40
Speaker 2: player signs a lifetime contract, they get a three year
11:44
Speaker 2: a four year deal and if they play well, great,
11:45
Speaker 2: you get a new, bigger one. So I think this
11:48
Speaker 2: is something that I think, you know, really makes some
11:50
Speaker 2: sense to potentially do. I want to talk more about
11:53
Speaker 2: this because there's a lot.
11:54
Speaker 3: Of meat here.
11:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's another question that I have which I think
11:58
Speaker 4: is pretty important to it, and maybe it's not an
12:00
Speaker 4: important maybe once we explain it's non important, But I
12:02
Speaker 4: want to understand what this means for the ninety plus
12:06
Speaker 4: percent of college and university attendees that are not athletes. Yeah,
12:11
Speaker 4: and definitely economics for the schools themselves and how all
12:15
Speaker 4: that works out, because that, to me is a massive
12:17
Speaker 4: question here. If you're turning on this income stream for
12:20
Speaker 4: the student athletes, how did that previously subsidized non student athletes,
12:24
Speaker 4: and what does that mean for the economics.
12:26
Speaker 2: Just take a quick break here, we'll talk about that.
12:27
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14:04
Speaker 4: So we're talking about the settlement over the weekend between
14:08
Speaker 4: the NCAA and it's member athletes, and basically what it
14:14
Speaker 4: gets to is a twenty point five million dollar cap
14:17
Speaker 4: that Division one schools can then use to pay their players.
14:22
Speaker 2: So the question that Mike asked during the previous segment was.
14:26
Speaker 4: What does this do to the non student athletes and
14:29
Speaker 4: just the economics of the school in general. Because I
14:32
Speaker 4: didn't attend one, but I'm sure there are a lot
14:35
Speaker 4: of schools out there where the football and basketball programs
14:39
Speaker 4: in particular, but others in general, subsidize some of the
14:43
Speaker 4: other costs born by the school.
14:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so just to give you a sense of this,
14:47
Speaker 2: and this is data for it looks like it's twenty
14:50
Speaker 2: twenty three finances for schools, because again we don't have
14:53
Speaker 2: twenty four yet because that year is still going right now.
14:58
Speaker 2: But so for the fiscal twenty twenty three year, twenty
15:01
Speaker 2: four year, what you have here, you know, it was sorry,
15:04
Speaker 2: the twenty two to twenty three year. And by the way,
15:07
Speaker 2: we only have this really for public universities, just because
15:10
Speaker 2: private ones don't. They don't have to tell you. The
15:13
Speaker 2: school with the highest athletic department revenue for let's see, yeah,
15:21
Speaker 2: for that year was Ohio State, which brought in two
15:24
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty one million dollars in athletic department revenue
15:28
Speaker 2: and spent two hundred and twenty five million. So still
15:31
Speaker 2: a net contributor of twenty five million dollars to the broader.
15:34
Speaker 4: School's Narrower than I would have thought it was, though
15:37
Speaker 4: some of these Mike some of these get get pretty
15:39
Speaker 4: dodgy here. In fact, you don't have to go down
15:42
Speaker 4: too far to get to where was it? Hang on,
15:44
Speaker 4: I'm just finding it here. Here we go, so you
15:46
Speaker 4: don't have to go down too far to find the
15:49
Speaker 4: University of Tennessee which brought in one hundred and fifty
15:52
Speaker 4: four million dollars in revenue and spent one hundred and
15:55
Speaker 4: fifty seven so the athletic department was a net loser
15:59
Speaker 4: for the School of Tennessee. So your tuition is subsidizing
16:03
Speaker 4: the athletic programs in those cases.
16:06
Speaker 3: Correct.
16:07
Speaker 2: One of my favorite interviews of all time Jim Calhoun,
16:10
Speaker 2: who was the head coach of the Yukonbatman's basketball team
16:14
Speaker 2: for decades. Someone asked him once like, hey, does it
16:19
Speaker 2: never bother you, like how much money you get paid by,
16:23
Speaker 2: you know, the university, because you know you're you're a
16:25
Speaker 2: public employee. And his answer was, go look at like
16:27
Speaker 2: the p and L like, go look at how much
16:29
Speaker 2: money we bring into this university. No, I'm not ashamed
16:32
Speaker 2: of my paycheck. We are a net contributor to the university.
16:36
Speaker 2: So like, don't ask me those questions anymore. Yukon, by
16:39
Speaker 2: the way, not as big of a program as you know.
16:43
Speaker 2: Ohio State they spent about ninety nine million dollars last year.
16:46
Speaker 2: They I'm sorry, they brought in ninety nine million, They
16:50
Speaker 2: spent ninety six so still contributed three million as a
16:52
Speaker 2: whole to the school.
16:54
Speaker 4: So then what this means to me is that athletics programs,
16:57
Speaker 4: if they were profitable previously, and we're a net contributor
17:01
Speaker 4: to subsidize, how the costs of universities, that's gonna narrow
17:04
Speaker 4: because they now probably have to pay student athletes to
17:07
Speaker 4: remain competitive.
17:08
Speaker 2: Or they're gonna be Two other things are the possibilities
17:12
Speaker 2: Number one higher ticket prices yeap. Number two getting rid
17:17
Speaker 2: of thinning out the athletic department administrative state.
17:22
Speaker 4: Oh why why wouldn't you kill teams here too? But
17:25
Speaker 4: why would Yukon still want It's not gonna save you
17:29
Speaker 4: enough money? Sing team in this case not gonna.
17:31
Speaker 2: Save you enough money. Now here's the thing. In certain cases,
17:34
Speaker 2: based on how certain conferences are set up. Now, like
17:38
Speaker 2: the ACC, I mean it's not just the AEC like
17:40
Speaker 2: everyone's a joke at this point, but it's like, okay,
17:42
Speaker 2: freaking Stanford's in the ACC. Like you gotta be flying
17:45
Speaker 2: people on the fencing team back and forth. Like, think
17:47
Speaker 2: about the cost that you have instead of just renting
17:49
Speaker 2: a bus. So yeah, like some of this stuff adds
17:52
Speaker 2: up and maybe you see a little bit of that. Yeah,
17:54
Speaker 2: most likely it's gonna be, hey, we're gonna raise you know,
17:58
Speaker 2: either fees or costs or you know for you know
18:00
Speaker 2: this and that.
18:01
Speaker 4: Remember too, that killing programs is you know, it might
18:05
Speaker 4: affect the current P and L, but it's also one
18:09
Speaker 4: of the heavily sighted reasons that alumni donate to their
18:13
Speaker 4: schools is their experience as student athletes and attending those matches.
18:17
Speaker 4: And so you know, you have a couple of big
18:19
Speaker 4: donors that were previous fencers, and that keeps a program
18:22
Speaker 4: alive even if it's unprofitable.
18:24
Speaker 2: The other thing, buy and large, this is gonna affect
18:26
Speaker 2: three sports football, men's and women's basketball. Everything else is
18:31
Speaker 2: kind of on the periphery. You're gonna have certain athletes
18:35
Speaker 2: and certain you know sports that are still gonna you know,
18:37
Speaker 2: potentially be eligible. Again a look at all.
18:40
Speaker 4: Of the Wisconsin will play pay a hockey player or two,
18:45
Speaker 4: and there'll be a few others in those types of
18:47
Speaker 4: areas that are profitable sports for those specific schools, but
18:51
Speaker 4: nothing like those are the two programs in the program.
18:53
Speaker 2: Honestly the biggest schools that are gonna be influenced here,
18:56
Speaker 2: it's the big ten in the SEC like that is
18:58
Speaker 2: where the deep pockets are. Once you get out of
19:00
Speaker 2: those two conferences, there's not gonna be anywhere near the
19:03
Speaker 2: maximum spending in a lot of cases. I mean again,
19:07
Speaker 2: the thirty fifth sorry, the thirty sixth largest spender in
19:12
Speaker 2: college athletics is Utah. They spend one hundred and fifteen
19:16
Speaker 2: million dollars. Like they're not gonna say yeah, like, let's
19:18
Speaker 2: raise our athletic department budget by twenty percent in order
19:21
Speaker 2: to max this out. They're gonna do what they can.
19:25
Speaker 2: So it's not gonna be universal even across D one.
19:28
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break.
19:29
Speaker 4: When we come back, we got Wall Street Watch trivia
19:31
Speaker 4: answer and then we're talking inflation after this.
19:40
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day,
19:44
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19:50
Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street Watch a complete look at
19:53
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19:56
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19:58
Speaker 5: Will not much move women on Wall Street as investors
20:02
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20:04
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20:07
Speaker 5: resuming trade talks. Right now, the Dow is down by
20:12
Speaker 5: two tenths of a percent, SMP five hundred is completely flat,
20:15
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20:19
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20:22
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20:24
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20:27
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20:31
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20:33
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20:47
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20:51
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20:54
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20:59
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21:02
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21:10
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21:13
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21:17
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21:21
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21:26
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21:29
Speaker 5: by about a third of a percent ahead of its
21:31
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21:34
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21:38
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21:42
Speaker 5: Apple Intelligence, among other items. I'm Tucker Silvan, That's Wall
21:46
Speaker 5: Street Watch. Trivia question for today was what was the
21:49
Speaker 5: name of the TV show starring Johnny Depp from nineteen
21:52
Speaker 5: eighty seven to nineteen ninety thou be twenty one Jump Street.
21:57
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22:00
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22:03
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22:10
Speaker 2: Mike, we got a couple of pieces here talking about
22:13
Speaker 2: four to one k blunders. I guess I'll describe them
22:18
Speaker 2: as what.
22:18
Speaker 4: Do we have Yeah, so piece from CNBC as well
22:20
Speaker 4: as one from the Wall Street Journal, and they both
22:23
Speaker 4: describe different features of four oh one k's that kind
22:28
Speaker 4: of drive you to the conclusion that they can be
22:31
Speaker 4: really good tools for accumulating money while you're working for
22:34
Speaker 4: the employer and then suddenly come with a bunch of
22:37
Speaker 4: pitfalls once you're done working there. So in the CNBCPS
22:41
Speaker 4: they point out that a lot of the fees that
22:43
Speaker 4: are usually covered by your employer while you are working
22:46
Speaker 4: there with maintaining this four oh one K suddenly get
22:49
Speaker 4: forced onto the previous employee if the account stays there.
22:54
Speaker 4: In some cases, in fact, the four to one K
22:56
Speaker 4: providers will just cash out the four oh one K
22:59
Speaker 4: and send you a check if the balance is too small,
23:01
Speaker 4: but otherwise they might start hitting you up for monthly
23:04
Speaker 4: maintenance fees and all sorts of stuff that was previously
23:07
Speaker 4: covered by the employer. I've also seen weird things like, hey,
23:10
Speaker 4: if you want to take money out of the four
23:12
Speaker 4: oh one K, we're going to charge you a per
23:14
Speaker 4: you know, electronic funds transfer fee and all sorts of
23:17
Speaker 4: stuff that you wouldn't really expect. In the twenty first century,
23:21
Speaker 4: but do exist sometimes in four to one K accounts.
23:25
Speaker 4: The nice thing, you know, the believe it or not,
23:28
Speaker 4: four oh one k's do get lost. Occasionally people change
23:31
Speaker 4: addresses and fail to keep up on their account statements.
23:35
Speaker 3: The Department of Labor just.
23:36
Speaker 4: Created this new retirement Savings Lost and found database to
23:40
Speaker 4: help you find those. So let's say you have moved,
23:42
Speaker 4: you know, moved addresses five times while you're in your
23:44
Speaker 4: sore twenties and lost track of one of these.
23:47
Speaker 3: This will help you track it down.
23:49
Speaker 4: But the point that they are making is and this
23:52
Speaker 4: is not universal because frankly, four to one k's are
23:54
Speaker 4: confusing and are different at every single provider, in every
23:58
Speaker 4: single company. But the general conclusion that both of these
24:02
Speaker 4: seem to come to is not the greatest tool to
24:06
Speaker 4: keep long term. If you're no longer working at the
24:09
Speaker 4: employer and you're starting to take out distributions, and that
24:13
Speaker 4: can vary from account fees that start to pop up
24:16
Speaker 4: when you're retired and taking money out. It can come
24:19
Speaker 4: down to how the methodology works within the four oh
24:22
Speaker 4: one K in terms of what money it takes the
24:25
Speaker 4: funds out of which can be problematic. Think if you're
24:28
Speaker 4: automatically taking all the money out of fixed income, for instance,
24:32
Speaker 4: you're automatically making yourself more aggressive when you're retired and
24:35
Speaker 4: trying to make yourself more conservative. The point would be,
24:40
Speaker 4: if you are approaching a change in employment or a
24:44
Speaker 4: soon to be retirement, it may make sense for you
24:47
Speaker 4: to at least understand whether or not this is the
24:49
Speaker 4: tool you're going to stick with. Once you reach that point,
24:52
Speaker 4: you can get a whole bunch of information if you
24:55
Speaker 4: dial into the fee disclosures, but they are big, long
24:59
Speaker 4: documents that you have to read through and educate yourself on.
25:02
Speaker 4: And if you're trying to evaluate your own retirement savings
25:06
Speaker 4: where it should be long term is the current tool
25:08
Speaker 4: to write one for you. Give the folks at Armstrong
25:11
Speaker 4: Advisory Group a call. We can take a look through
25:13
Speaker 4: those with you, understand what the costs and benefits are
25:16
Speaker 4: of having what you have today and compare that to
25:19
Speaker 4: other options that are out there. The phone number for
25:21
Speaker 4: the Armstrong Advisory Group is eight hundred three nine three
25:24
Speaker 4: four zero zero one. Again that's Armstrong Advisory Group at
25:28
Speaker 4: eight hundred three to nine three four zero zero one.
25:32
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong advisory group a
25:34
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
25:37
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
25:40
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax into state planning advisors before making
25:43
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
25:46
Speaker 1: advisory services.
25:47
Speaker 2: Piece in the Wall Street Journal, it's titled get Ready
25:50
Speaker 2: for inflation to matter in markets again, to which I reply, Well,
25:53
Speaker 2: it has mattered. It's just that the inflation data has
25:55
Speaker 2: been better over the last few months, and so it's
25:58
Speaker 2: mattered for markets going up, not for them going down.
26:03
Speaker 4: Inflation mattered for markets in the seventies, and in twenty
26:06
Speaker 4: twenty two, it hasn't been a whole.
26:08
Speaker 2: Lot of you mean negatively in markets.
26:10
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, give me any other circumstance where it did.
26:16
Speaker 3: I don't think this is a really story here.
26:18
Speaker 4: Like, yes, people are more hyper aware of inflation, I suppose,
26:23
Speaker 4: and the downside risk for markets to it should it
26:27
Speaker 4: start coming back, than really at any point since the
26:29
Speaker 4: nineteen seventies. But I don't think you can count on
26:33
Speaker 4: that volatility until you start to see indications that the
26:36
Speaker 4: inflation is really back. And while I can paint a
26:39
Speaker 4: picture of how it might come back, it isn't yet.
26:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's I remember, I don't know. It was probably
26:46
Speaker 2: like seven or eight years ago. Now, I attended a
26:50
Speaker 2: conference where there was a manager from Fidelity speaking there.
26:54
Speaker 2: I can't remember his name quite honestly, but one thing
26:57
Speaker 2: that he said stuck with me. This was before or
27:00
Speaker 2: like twenty twenty two. This was like twenty seventeen, eighteen nineteen,
27:03
Speaker 2: somewhere in that range, and one of the things that
27:05
Speaker 2: he said was, look, if you're nervous about inflation, wait
27:08
Speaker 2: for it to print before you actually do anything. And
27:11
Speaker 2: it's basically been like the right way to approach it
27:14
Speaker 2: in just about every environment because if inflation doesn't actually
27:19
Speaker 2: show up, then you just waste a whole bunch of time, money,
27:21
Speaker 2: and effort chasing something that is not there.
27:27
Speaker 4: And be clear, inflation can cause really big problems. It
27:30
Speaker 4: led to one of the worst years, or maybe the
27:32
Speaker 4: worst year for balanced portfolios in twenty twenty two that
27:35
Speaker 4: we have ever seen, and that was inflation.
27:38
Speaker 2: But you gotta wait for it to print. Yeah, And
27:40
Speaker 2: that's the thing I mean, even when we talk about
27:44
Speaker 2: you know, twenty two, remember inflation started ratcheting up Q
27:49
Speaker 2: two of twenty one. That's when it started ratcheting up
27:54
Speaker 2: was in Q two of twenty one, as people were
27:57
Speaker 2: you know, kind of emerging from twenty twenty and starting
27:59
Speaker 2: to spend a whole bunch of money. And it didn't
28:01
Speaker 2: reach its crescendo until March of twenty two, when you
28:06
Speaker 2: had actually June it was June. Yeah, so I was
28:10
Speaker 2: looking at pp animation. Yeah, you get to nine point
28:12
Speaker 2: zero six, uh in June of twenty two, so it
28:15
Speaker 2: was you know, a solid year build up there that
28:18
Speaker 2: you had to this point. You take a look at
28:20
Speaker 2: what we've seen, you know, so far this year and
28:25
Speaker 2: again I'm just looking year to date right now, and
28:28
Speaker 2: I've got I don't know CPI. Let's look at CPI.
28:31
Speaker 2: CPI has gone from two eight nine down to two
28:33
Speaker 2: three one, Okay, like inflation has mattered, but it's mattered
28:38
Speaker 2: because it's gone down. I take a look at Core CPI,
28:42
Speaker 2: which has gone from three two one to two seven eight. Again,
28:45
Speaker 2: it's mattered because it's gone down, Like it hasn't been
28:48
Speaker 2: an issue PCE Corpate, Like you can look at all
28:52
Speaker 2: these there, every measure has come down since the start
28:54
Speaker 2: of the year. The question that is out there is
28:59
Speaker 2: what is the tariff situation going to due to inflation
29:03
Speaker 2: really probably starting in the June number. So I think
29:05
Speaker 2: you'll see a little bit maybe in May and in
29:07
Speaker 2: a couple of areas, but the June numbers that we
29:10
Speaker 2: get about a month from now, June, July, and August.
29:12
Speaker 2: Show me what those numbers are going to do for inflation,
29:17
Speaker 2: and then we can talk about it, because we'll get
29:19
Speaker 2: ready for inflation to matter markets. No, everyone's been looking
29:21
Speaker 2: at inflation. It has mattered. It's just the inflation data
29:24
Speaker 2: has been good. And so if the inflation data stays good, great,
29:28
Speaker 2: it'll continue to matter because it's good. If the inflation's bad,
29:32
Speaker 2: it'll continue to matter because it's bad now, just as
29:35
Speaker 2: it always would have. The inflation data always matters. It's
29:38
Speaker 2: just that from nineteen eighty through you know, twenty twenty one,
29:42
Speaker 2: there was none. It was good. You didn't have to
29:44
Speaker 2: worry about it. It's still mattered. But I mean, my goodness,
29:48
Speaker 2: when I started in this business, I still remember the
29:50
Speaker 2: people tell me to watch out for inflation back in
29:52
Speaker 2: twenty ten and twenty eleven. Oops, good job, good effort.
29:58
Speaker 2: You know, Like again, we all have these errors that
29:59
Speaker 2: we because like none of us are one hundred percent
30:01
Speaker 2: in this business.
30:02
Speaker 3: But I don't know.
30:04
Speaker 2: I always go back to that idea, like, hey, if
30:05
Speaker 2: you're worried about inflation, wait for it to print and
30:07
Speaker 2: then start worrying about it, because otherwise you're kind of
30:10
Speaker 2: just chasing the ghost. Let's take a quick break. When
30:13
Speaker 2: we come back, stack Roulette.
30:15
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31:23
Speaker 3: All right, Mike.
31:24
Speaker 2: Over the weekend, Tucker sent sent me this piece from.
31:28
Speaker 4: The New York Times sent to both us. Actually wasn't
31:31
Speaker 4: just me. They occasionally send stuff tout me, but not often.
31:37
Speaker 2: It was from the New York Times title Ferris Bueller's
31:39
Speaker 2: vest Hits the auction Block expected.
31:41
Speaker 4: To go for three hundred to six hundred grand, which
31:44
Speaker 4: is pretty penny if you can get it. Apparently this
31:48
Speaker 4: was previously owned by Darren Rovel. I read in this piece,
31:53
Speaker 4: which I find just funny.
31:57
Speaker 2: You said it.
31:59
Speaker 4: Anyways, So it got us thinking, Okay, what movie memorabilia
32:05
Speaker 4: would you pay the most for?
32:07
Speaker 2: I have a top eight list?
32:09
Speaker 1: Oh eight eight?
32:10
Speaker 3: Now I have a top eight.
32:11
Speaker 4: I thought of a couple more while we were doing
32:13
Speaker 4: Are we going back and forth here or just fire
32:16
Speaker 4: them off?
32:17
Speaker 2: You can go first if you'd like. All right, So
32:19
Speaker 2: my top one, by the way, our qualification. You have
32:21
Speaker 2: to hold it.
32:22
Speaker 4: It has to be something that you can physically lift
32:24
Speaker 4: in your hand. My first one is not that, so I'm.
32:27
Speaker 2: Sorry, Like, because there's a million cool cars and planes.
32:30
Speaker 4: And the shark from Jaws is the you know, number
32:33
Speaker 4: one for me, it'd be like the iconic New England
32:36
Speaker 4: piece of memorabilia, the famous shark from Jaws, which I cannot.
32:39
Speaker 3: Hold in my hands. I would imagine. No, it's a robot,
32:42
Speaker 3: super cool to have.
32:43
Speaker 4: It's not even a robot, it's just this Yeah, nineteen seventies,
32:47
Speaker 4: nineteen seventies. Really like, I think that'd be the coolest
32:51
Speaker 4: thing to have in your house.
32:52
Speaker 5: Okay, I can, Yeah, I'll fit nice in the dining room.
32:54
Speaker 4: I can let it go. Yeah, you put that under
32:56
Speaker 4: the table, like, oh, all the rest of my all
32:59
Speaker 4: the rest of my and you can hold in your hand.
33:01
Speaker 4: But that that was my number one. Like classic New
33:03
Speaker 4: England memorabilia would be.
33:05
Speaker 2: The shark from Josh. Okay, so you got the shark
33:07
Speaker 2: from Jaws. Yeah, these are in no particular order for me.
33:09
Speaker 2: I don't have them ranked. The ring from Lord of
33:12
Speaker 2: the Rings.
33:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, that's a good one.
33:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, I think that would be a pretty good one.
33:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, but it needs to do like the letters glowing
33:20
Speaker 4: when I put it in the fire.
33:21
Speaker 5: By the way, six one, seven, three, six two thirteen
33:23
Speaker 5: eighty five. If you want to chime in with your what.
33:25
Speaker 1: Else you got my items?
33:27
Speaker 4: I've got Enigo Montoya's sword huh in Nigo Montoya from
33:32
Speaker 4: What the Princess Bride?
33:33
Speaker 5: Oh, I never saw that.
33:34
Speaker 4: It's been a while, okay, perfect, Yeah, it's it's the
33:37
Speaker 4: perfect movie.
33:39
Speaker 3: The sword from Nigo.
33:40
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Enigo Montoya swid sword you killed my father
33:43
Speaker 4: prepared to die.
33:44
Speaker 3: Okay.
33:44
Speaker 2: I've got the U the lighter from die Hard that
33:48
Speaker 2: John McClain has when he's in the the ac event.
33:52
Speaker 5: That's a great one.
33:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got that one.
33:54
Speaker 4: I would go with either the bathrobe or the Christmas
33:58
Speaker 4: sweater Dicky Combo from Christmas Vicy.
34:00
Speaker 5: Yep, yep, or Big Lebowski.
34:02
Speaker 2: I thought you were going big Lebowski.
34:04
Speaker 4: But first bathroom from Blebowski. Yeah, okay, so our number
34:07
Speaker 4: of bathrobes would be on the list.
34:08
Speaker 2: Mike during the break was going, I wish I could
34:10
Speaker 2: come up with something from the Matrix. Yeah, I want
34:13
Speaker 2: the red and Blue pills. Want, I want those props.
34:17
Speaker 5: I'd want more pieces sunglasses, though I didn't have the
34:20
Speaker 5: side pieces and somehow stay on his face.
34:23
Speaker 4: This was kind of given to me, but that the
34:25
Speaker 4: Pillars from Fifth Element would be on my list.
34:27
Speaker 3: Okay, I loved that movie. Is that a nineties classic? Yeah?
34:30
Speaker 3: I think so.
34:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was like ninety How many Bruce Willis ninety ninety?
34:33
Speaker 3: How many Bruce Willis movies? We had quite a few.
34:37
Speaker 2: I got from Back to the Future Marty McFly's vest
34:40
Speaker 2: that he wears in the first one.
34:41
Speaker 5: Yeah.
34:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, kind of life jacket ish.
34:43
Speaker 3: So look at that.
34:44
Speaker 2: I got that on there.
34:45
Speaker 3: You got any more, I'm out?
34:46
Speaker 4: Yeah, a cane from Citizen Kane in the Simpsons joke,
34:49
Speaker 4: but okay, that doesn't exist.
34:50
Speaker 2: I've got from a from Goodwill Hunting the piece of
34:53
Speaker 2: chalk that Matt Damon uses to write the answers to
34:56
Speaker 2: the equation on the board.
34:57
Speaker 3: So you got a regional one for us here.
34:59
Speaker 2: I got something little Boston there from Shawshank Redemption. I
35:02
Speaker 2: want the ripped Raquel Welch poster. M Okay, does he
35:08
Speaker 2: rip it it?
35:08
Speaker 3: I'm trying to know he.
35:09
Speaker 2: Throws the rock in it and then and then he
35:12
Speaker 2: rip ripped it.
35:12
Speaker 3: And I would prefer one.
35:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, you can't get this, but I would prefer one
35:17
Speaker 4: with just a hole in it. I wonder if they
35:18
Speaker 4: doesn't exist. Yeah, maybe maybe they had a couple of shots.
35:22
Speaker 3: Yeah maybe Okay?
35:23
Speaker 2: Uh Also uh, sporting wise, I want the seven iron
35:27
Speaker 2: from Tim Cup. Okay, yep, I want the seven iron
35:30
Speaker 2: from Tim Cup. And I think this last one is
35:33
Speaker 2: my top one. Actually, I want the uh mikelove and
35:36
Speaker 2: license from super Bad. That's such a good one.
35:41
Speaker 5: That is the perfect tiniest piece of movie memory. But
35:45
Speaker 5: I want to be able to have that in my
35:46
Speaker 5: pocket at all times. Which of these and if I
35:48
Speaker 5: get pulled over hand it to a cop and and
35:50
Speaker 5: I know I'm getting a warning, then.
35:52
Speaker 3: Which of these would go? Which of these would go
35:54
Speaker 3: for the most money.
35:55
Speaker 2: Out of the marscussed?
35:57
Speaker 4: I think the shark from Jaws would go for the most.
35:59
Speaker 4: I know we discounted that one, but I think that
36:01
Speaker 4: would go for more than any of them.
36:05
Speaker 2: So there's two ways that you have to look at this.
36:07
Speaker 2: The first is which which movie has the most die
36:10
Speaker 2: hard fans out of any of these?
36:12
Speaker 3: Yep?
36:12
Speaker 2: And like even which actor has the most die hard
36:15
Speaker 2: fans out of any of these?
36:16
Speaker 4: And then of those diehard fans, which are the wealthiest.
36:23
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think it's any Bruce Willis movie.
36:27
Speaker 3: Probably not.
36:29
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know which one of these is going.
36:31
Speaker 2: I can tell you which ones are not going for
36:33
Speaker 2: the most. The Seven Irons not it. It's not the
36:35
Speaker 2: chalk from Goodwill Hunting.
36:36
Speaker 3: It's not any of the memorabilia from Christmasification.
36:39
Speaker 5: It would be the Marty McFly vest. That would If
36:42
Speaker 5: Ferris Buelo is going for three hundred k or whatever.
36:44
Speaker 2: I don't know that Lord of the Rings ring is
36:46
Speaker 2: is kind Yeah, that's like you don't think.
36:49
Speaker 3: The shark from Jaws is going for the most?
36:51
Speaker 5: No, because nobody wants that in there.
36:52
Speaker 2: What are you gonna do with it?
36:53
Speaker 3: Yeah?
36:54
Speaker 2: I think how big of a pool do you need
36:56
Speaker 2: to make that useful?
36:57
Speaker 5: Dog will be terrified.
36:59
Speaker 3: I think it's going for the most.
37:00
Speaker 5: Somebody in the text line gave a really good one.
37:03
Speaker 5: The original leg lamp from a Christmas story. Ooh, yep,
37:07
Speaker 5: that would go for pretty penny. Yeah, I'd want the
37:10
Speaker 5: rip jacket from Tommy Boy Fat Guy in a Little Coat. Yeah,
37:14
Speaker 5: well Chris Farley puts that on, and then one of
37:16
Speaker 5: the tucks is from dumb and dumber one.
37:18
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that's pretty good. The blue or the orange orange?
37:21
Speaker 2: I would go orange. You're more of a blue guy,
37:23
Speaker 2: I guess.
37:25
Speaker 3: Yeah.
37:26
Speaker 4: Well, if you have any other great movie memorabilia, I
37:29
Speaker 4: think that covered a lot of it. But if you
37:30
Speaker 4: have any other great memory, biliy, you can text us
37:32
Speaker 4: in at six point seven three six two thirteen eighty five.
37:35
Speaker 3: Well, we'll we'll get back to it this week.
37:38
Speaker 2: Taking a look at markets as we had towards the
37:39
Speaker 2: top of the hour, with the dows off sixteen points,
37:41
Speaker 2: the s and ps up seven, the Nasdaq is up
37:44
Speaker 2: sixty four, so muted too slightly up is what we've
37:49
Speaker 2: got going on here, and we will continue to monitor
37:52
Speaker 2: any potential news out of London on US China trade
37:57
Speaker 2: negotiations as we go. We're done for the day, but
38:04
Speaker 2: we're gonna be back tomorrow and it'll be great.
38:07
Speaker 3: Can't wait. It's gonna be great.
38:08
Speaker 2: It's awesome. See you then,