Latest / The Game Business Show / Is Nintendo Switch 2 a legitimate rival to Xbox and PlayStation this time? | Here’s The Dring

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Is Nintendo Switch 2 a legitimate rival to Xbox and PlayStation this time? | Here’s The Dring · The Game Business Show

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  SPEAKER_00: So here's the drink.
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  SPEAKER_00: By the way, that's the name of my new series of opinion pieces.
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  SPEAKER_00: If you hate the name and feel I should be frankly ashamed of myself,
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  SPEAKER_00: head to thegamebusiness.com,
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  SPEAKER_00: click on the story,
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  SPEAKER_00: is Nintendo switched to a legitimate rival to Xbox and PlayStation?
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  And there's a poll at the bottom where you can insist that I
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  change it immediately.
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  SPEAKER_00: On the other side,
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  if you think it's a work of journalistic genius that should be
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  commended and never altered,
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  SPEAKER_00: also head to the same place and vote for me to keep it.
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  SPEAKER_00: The choice is yours.
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  SPEAKER_00: Now, where was I?
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  SPEAKER_00: Oh yes, here's the dream.
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  It feels almost inappropriate to be talking about Nintendo's
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  business strategy at a
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  SPEAKER_00: time like this.
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  SPEAKER_00: The tariffs imposed on Asian countries by the US,
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  the very countries that produce the chips and machines that
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  play our games,
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  SPEAKER_00: feels frankly existential.
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  SPEAKER_00: We just have to hope the various governments reach an agreement or the
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  Entertainment Software Association can make an effective case
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  for our industry.
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  SPEAKER_00: In a time when video game growth is slow to non-existent,
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  SPEAKER_00: this really couldn't come at a worse time.
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  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, Nintendo.
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  I've been caught somewhat off guard by the hysteria around the
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  price of Nintendo Switch 2.
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  SPEAKER_00: The retailers I spoke to,
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  SPEAKER_00: they all thought it was reasonable,
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  SPEAKER_00: the analysts didn't shift their sales estimates,
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  and it was roughly in line with what people were suggesting
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  before the Direct was aired.
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  I've personally spent £430 on the Mario Kart World bundle,
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  although I'd hardly call that cheap.
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  SPEAKER_00: I didn't think it unreasonable.
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  SPEAKER_00: But I guess that's just it with value.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's subjective.
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  £430 for a games console and a game that will likely be a
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  fixture in my household
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  for me and the kids for the next seven years doesn't feel
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  astronomical to me.
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  SPEAKER_00: But someone else may have a very different perspective.
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  SPEAKER_00: I'll give you an example.
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  SPEAKER_00: When Nintendo charged full price for Super Mario 3D All-Stars,
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  SPEAKER_00: do you remember that back in 2020?
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  SPEAKER_00: It was a pretty basic port job done by Nintendo of three old Mario games.
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  personally i saw a product that was at least 80 hours of
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  guaranteed joy i was going
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  to get a lot of fun out of this it's going to last me all
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  christmas i felt like it
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  was a bargain but some fans were outraged how could nintendo
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  justify that price tag
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  SPEAKER_00: when it's clearly spent so little in putting it together
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  SPEAKER_00: It's an argument I've always found hard to follow that.
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  It's not like we expect romantic comedies to be cheaper at the
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  cinema than
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  SPEAKER_00: superhero movies because the budgets are less.
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  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time,
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  SPEAKER_00: when other game collections come in at a far more wallet-friendly price,
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  SPEAKER_00: Rare Replay,
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  SPEAKER_00: for instance,
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  SPEAKER_00: featured 30 iconic games,
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  SPEAKER_00: including the Banjo-Kazooie platformers,
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  SPEAKER_00: for £30.
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  SPEAKER_00: I can see why some fans felt short-changed.
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  In the end,
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  though,
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  that Mario collection shifted 9 million copies in just a few months.
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  SPEAKER_00: People did see the value.
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  SPEAKER_00: But will the same thing happen this time?
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  SPEAKER_00: For all the hand-wringing,
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  will Nintendo Switch 2 just carry on where its predecessor left
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  off and sell huge
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  SPEAKER_00: amounts of units?
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  SPEAKER_00: I know a lot of the issues actually aren't about the console price,
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  but they're around the $80 price associated with the game Mario
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  Kart World,
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  SPEAKER_00: although it is cheaper in the bundle.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I have to ask, who's buying Switch 2 without Mario Kart?
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  SPEAKER_00: Anyway.
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  SPEAKER_00: Anyway,
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  SPEAKER_00: the point is,
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  it's the highest price we've seen yet for a AAA video game and
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  a big leap over the
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  SPEAKER_00: Switch 1 pricing.
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  SPEAKER_00: Is it too high for a video game?
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  SPEAKER_00: Will people find it hard to justify that in a cost of living crisis?
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  Or does its inevitable longevity and quality make it a more
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  palatable purchase?
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  SPEAKER_00: Ultimately, the market will decide this thing.
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  SPEAKER_00: Nintendo, PlayStation, Xbox have all got the pricing wrong in the past.
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  SPEAKER_00: Nintendo with the 3DS,
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  SPEAKER_00: PlayStation with the PS3,
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  SPEAKER_00: Xbox with the Xbox One,
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  SPEAKER_00: and they all reacted accordingly.
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  Nintendo Switch 2 looks like a pretty good console with a bunch
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  of great looking games.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's the main thing.
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  SPEAKER_00: You can't fix a bad product,
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  SPEAKER_00: but the price can always be amended,
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  SPEAKER_00: assuming the tariffs don't make that financially untenable.
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  SPEAKER_00: The other thing about the Direct that sort of spoke to me a little bit,
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  SPEAKER_00: surprised me in a way,
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  is that it felt like very much like a PlayStation and Xbox
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  press conference or video.
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  It's been a long time since I've considered Nintendo a direct
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  rival to either of those people.
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  They're competitors,
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  of course,
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  in the modern entertainment age where nobody has any time.
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  SPEAKER_00: Everyone is competing with everyone.
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  SPEAKER_00: Movies, books, TikToks, walks in the park, you name it.
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  SPEAKER_00: But ever since Wii,
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  SPEAKER_00: Nintendo has largely avoided targeting traditional gamers,
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  SPEAKER_00: bar a very brief spell at the launch of Wii U.
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  It's focused its efforts on families with novelty control
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  schemes and brightly
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  SPEAKER_00: colored games.
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  SPEAKER_00: Of course, the Switch did successfully appeal to older gamers.
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  The machine's portability has attracted time-poor adults who
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  don't get much TV time.
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  SPEAKER_00: I'm one of those adults.
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  SPEAKER_00: But it's still not quite a direct competitor to Xbox or PlayStation.
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  The most popular franchises on Sony and Microsoft's machines
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  remain largely absent
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  SPEAKER_00: from Nintendo,
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  SPEAKER_00: Call of Duty,
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  SPEAKER_00: Madden,
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  SPEAKER_00: Assassin's Creed.
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  SPEAKER_00: Even the Switch versions of FIFA,
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  SPEAKER_00: at least up until the EA Sports FC rebrand,
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  SPEAKER_00: were the significantly inferior legacy editions.
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  SPEAKER_00: However,
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  the Switch 2 release date is filled with games that have sold
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  very strongly on
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  SPEAKER_00: PlayStation and Xbox formats.
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  SPEAKER_00: There will be Call of Duty,
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  SPEAKER_00: there will be Madden,
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  SPEAKER_00: EA Sports FC,
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  SPEAKER_00: the full version,
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  SPEAKER_00: Final Fantasy,
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  SPEAKER_00: plus modern hits like Elden Ring and Cyberpunk 2077.
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  At this point,
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  I'm half expecting a Switch 2 version of Grand Theft Auto 6.
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  Switch 2 is clearly powerful enough to run capable versions of
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  modern games.
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  SPEAKER_00: With publishers,
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  SPEAKER_00: developers and even platform holders targeting PCs with various specs,
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  SPEAKER_00: including the Steam tech,
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  SPEAKER_00: plus of course the existence of the Xbox Series S,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's not unreasonable to suggest Switch 2 might be able to run most,
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  SPEAKER_00: or at least a lot,
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  SPEAKER_00: of things that this generation throws at it.
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  SPEAKER_00: That certainly wasn't the case last time.
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  SPEAKER_00: In addition,
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  SPEAKER_00: one of the biggest surprises of the Switch 2 reveal was the Dustbloods,
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  SPEAKER_00: a new hardcore action game by Elden Ring developer From Software.
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  SPEAKER_00: Nintendo signs games like this from time to time,
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  and they're largely designed to bring a new audience to the
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  Nintendo ecosystem.
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  SPEAKER_00: So someone comes in for Dustbloods,
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  SPEAKER_00: they might go and play Metroid,
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  SPEAKER_00: they might buy an extra controller,
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  SPEAKER_00: they might sign up to the online service.
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  SPEAKER_00: But here's the thing,
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  SPEAKER_00: the audience for Dustbloods is,
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  SPEAKER_00: frankly,
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  a PlayStation audience from software's games that are closely
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  associated with PlayStation.
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  SPEAKER_00: Now,
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  I'm not suggesting from software fans are going to start
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  trading in their PS5s for
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  SPEAKER_00: a Switch 2,
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  nor am I suggesting PlayStation or Xbox fans would ever choose
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  Mario Kart over Gran
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  SPEAKER_00: Turismo or Metroid over Halo.
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  SPEAKER_00: But what about as an additional purchase,
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  SPEAKER_00: a means to take something like Elden Ring,
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  SPEAKER_00: which they've already played,
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  SPEAKER_00: on the go?
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  We know there is a decent crossover between PlayStation slash
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  Xbox owners and the
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  SPEAKER_00: Switch audience.
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  The difference this time is that there appears to be more of
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  the same games coming
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  SPEAKER_00: to Nintendo's systems.
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  SPEAKER_00: In this engagement era,
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  any platform that's hoovering up some of those valuable Madden
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  or Call of Duty
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  SPEAKER_00: hours is a competitor to PS5 and Xbox consoles.
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  SPEAKER_00: And although PS5 and Xbox Series X are technically superior machines,
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  SPEAKER_00: Nintendo is the more flexible option,
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  SPEAKER_00: at least for now.
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  SPEAKER_00: I've often felt PlayStation,
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  SPEAKER_00: Xbox,
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  SPEAKER_00: and Nintendo play slightly different versions of the same sport,
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  SPEAKER_00: and I still feel that way,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's just now they appear to be playing more on the same park.
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  SPEAKER_00: I know certain third-party developers that will be hoping I'm right.
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  SPEAKER_00: At a bar at GDC,
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  I spoke to one leader of a major independent studio who was
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  openly concerned by
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  SPEAKER_00: Xbox's strategy of moving away from the console.
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  He was concerned it would negatively impact future negotiations
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  with Sony.
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  It's tough negotiating with somebody when they know that you
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  are their only real choice,
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  SPEAKER_00: he said.
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  SPEAKER_00: Perhaps Nintendo Switch 2 could be that alternative choice,
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  a viable option for third-party developers that's an
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  alternative to PlayStations.
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  Outside of the third party games,
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  let's talk a little bit about the first party games.
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  SPEAKER_00: In our reaction podcast last week,
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  GameSpot's Lucy James talked of her surprise that there weren't
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  more first party
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  SPEAKER_00: games on display during the Switch 2 reveal.
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  SPEAKER_00: In truth,
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  SPEAKER_00: there was plenty,
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  including some pretty big franchise games in the form of Mario
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  Kart and Pokemon.
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  Yet I understood where Lucy was coming from because it did feel
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  like something was missing,
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  SPEAKER_00: namely a big new Mario or Zelda game that can,
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  SPEAKER_00: alongside Mario Kart,
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  SPEAKER_00: appeal to both mainstream and hardcore audiences alike.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yet what if, and bear with me here, Donkey Kong Bonanza is that game?
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  SPEAKER_00: Let me jump back a bit.
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  A lot has been made about the success of Nintendo Switch
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  because of its 150 million sales.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it's certainly impressive.
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  SPEAKER_00: There's no bones about it.
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  SPEAKER_00: But it's not astronomically bigger than any other era.
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  SPEAKER_00: In the previous generation,
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  SPEAKER_00: the Wii U and the 3DS generation,
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  SPEAKER_00: Nintendo shifted a disappointing 90 million pieces of hardware.
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  For the generation before,
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  the Wii and DS generation,
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  it was over 250 million.
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  SPEAKER_00: The one before that, GameCube and Game Boy Advance, was 100 million.
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  In the 1990s,
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  across the N64,
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  SNES and Game Boy,
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  Nintendo shifted some 200 million devices.
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  As a single product,
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  Switch is one of the most successful games and machines of all time.
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  SPEAKER_00: But if you take a more holistic view of Nintendo's hardware business,
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  SPEAKER_00: selling 150 million machines over eight years is great,
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  SPEAKER_00: but it's not unheard of.
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  Where I believe Switch has really delivered for Nintendo has
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  been in terms of its IP.
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  SPEAKER_00: Before the launch of The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild,
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  SPEAKER_00: the best-selling Zelda game had only sold 9 million units,
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  SPEAKER_00: and that was 2006's Twilight Princess.
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  SPEAKER_00: Breath of the Wild had sold nearly four times that.
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  Super Mario Odyssey is over twice as big as the previous
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  best-selling 3D Mario game.
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  Animal Crossing is three times bigger than the previous
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  best-selling title in that series.
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  SPEAKER_00: Mario Kart,
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  SPEAKER_00: Pokemon,
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  SPEAKER_00: Luigi's Mansion,
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  SPEAKER_00: even smaller brands like Pikmin,
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  Fire Emblem and Kirby are all exponentially bigger today than
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  they were eight years ago.
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  It's this franchise growth that has enabled Nintendo to
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  transform itself into a
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  SPEAKER_00: Disney-like entertainment behemoth.
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  SPEAKER_00: Lego sets, theme parks, movies, live events, museums, alarm clocks.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yes,
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  SPEAKER_00: Nintendo has always had a strong licensing business,
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  SPEAKER_00: but it's now doing a lot of that work itself.
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  SPEAKER_00: It co-developed those Lego sets.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's co-producing the movies.
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  SPEAKER_00: It made the alarm clock.
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  SPEAKER_00: It designed the theme parks.
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  are still a few brands that didn't grow much during the switch
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  generation or at all
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  which those and those are opportunities for nintendo one of
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  those games is metroid
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  which received one admittedly excellent 2d game and a remaster
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  which was also
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  admittedly excellent during the switch era both of which
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  performed very very well
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  SPEAKER_00: by metroid standards
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  SPEAKER_00: But Metroid Prime 4 Beyond,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is one of the games due this year,
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  is a fully-fledged new 3D Metroid that crosses the Switch 1 and
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  2 generations.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's the franchise's biggest launch in more than 15 years.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's an opportunity.
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  But,
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  as I said in last week's newsletter,
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  I think the biggest opportunity could be Donkey Kong.
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  SPEAKER_00: The character had a starring role in 2023's $1 billion Mario movie,
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  SPEAKER_00: and a new Donkey Kong theme area had opened up at Super Nintendo World.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yet game-wise,
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  SPEAKER_00: outside of a few guest appearances and a couple of remasters,
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  SPEAKER_00: he was largely missing from the entire Switch era.
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  So I'm really keen to see how big Nintendo goes with his new
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  Donkey Kong game.
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  SPEAKER_00: Is he going to treat it like a hero product?
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  Because it's the success of the IP like that which will define
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  how successful the
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  SPEAKER_00: Switch 2 generation will be,
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  SPEAKER_00: more than how many units of hardware are sold.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's it for today's episode of Here's the Drink.
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  Join us later in the week for our interview with video game
• 10:44
  analyst Matthew Ball,
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  SPEAKER_00: plus our news and analysis show.
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  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for tuning in.
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  SPEAKER_00: Music.