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How the U.S. Midterm Results Will Reshape Transatlantic Relations · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: As you can imagine, many people in Germany also watch
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: the midterm elections very, very closely, especially here. I'm in
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: one of the buildings of the German parliament. And we'll
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: talk about the results of those midterms and what they
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: mean for Germany. And I'm with none other than Peter
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Beyer today, who is one of the foreign policy experts
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: and also U.S. experts of the CDU, so the party
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: of Chancellor Metz. Very happy to have you with us today.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Happy to be here.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks. So the first question is, is Trump now a
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  Speaker 1: lame duck or is he foreign policy wise an angry bird?
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  Speaker 2: Depending on your perspective.
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  Speaker 3: I think from day one onwards, after the elections, which
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  Speaker 3: is today, November 4th, he will concentrate on his legacy.
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  Speaker 2: He has two more years. He's still the incumbent president.
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  Speaker 3: So he has a lot of executive power.
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  Speaker 2: It's going to be more.
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  Speaker 3: Difficult for him because the Democrats are controlling both sides,
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  Speaker 3: both chambers, Senate and House.
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  Speaker 1: That's clear. Is he going to be angry? Do you
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  Speaker 1: expect a backlash?
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  Speaker 3: So with regard, I think, interesting question. Of course, this
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  Speaker 3: is a question that we ask ourselves. A lot of
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  Speaker 3: things are possible. So I think we can say for
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  Speaker 3: sure we will see very soon another joint strike with
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  Speaker 3: the Israelis on Iran And then the implementation of his
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  Speaker 3: Monroe Doctrine Western Hemisphere, Venezuela, Cuba. So he will be
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  Speaker 3: more dynamic, if you so will, aggressive in these parts
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  Speaker 3: of foreign politics. With regard, which interests us very much,
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  Speaker 3: to tariffs, trade, which is really horrible for us and
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  Speaker 3: our businesses, we want to do transatlantic trade and still
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  Speaker 3: doing that. This is something I think we will see
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  Speaker 3: a continuation, hopefully no further regression, But this will not
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: go away. We have to see this will stay in place.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Is there a message in these midterm elections for Trump,
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  Speaker 1: foreign policy-wise?
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  Speaker 2: Not so much. Again, what I said earlier, I mean, continuation.
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  Speaker 3: I expect personally, and this is when I talk to
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  Speaker 3: my colleagues here, I mean, the results are still fresh,
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  Speaker 3: but a continuation in foreign politics, maybe with one slight exception,
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  Speaker 3: but also this is not sure. This is the question
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  Speaker 3: of all questions for us here. It's support for Ukraine.
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  Speaker 3: So what does that mean?
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  Speaker 1: So that would be the exception.
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  Speaker 3: This can be the exception, might be the exception, remains
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  Speaker 3: to be seen.
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  Speaker 2: But with regard to U.S.
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  Speaker 3: Taxpayers' monies, these questions have been raised not only by
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  Speaker 3: Republican senators and House representatives, but also on the Democratic side.
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  Speaker 3: This is something that is not new, will not go away.
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  Speaker 3: So this will be, you know, going, not very strong,
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  Speaker 3: I think, with regard to support of Ukraine, which is
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  Speaker 3: super important for our security here in Germany.
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  Speaker 1: You touched upon Iran. quickly. Do you think that the
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  Speaker 1: results of the midterms influence what he's going to do
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  Speaker 1: there or he had these plans all along?
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  Speaker 3: Look, I expected even that he will lead a strike
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  Speaker 3: on Iran before, shortly before the midterm elections. I know there's,
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it's not very much like because he promised
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  Speaker 3: to his voters, I will end wars. and not start
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  Speaker 3: new ones. So it's not very popular in Iran. Anyway,
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  Speaker 3: I thought he would do this before.
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  Speaker 2: So I don't think it's very much influenced by the results.
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  Speaker 2: He will do this anyway.
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  Speaker 3: For me, it's like 99.9% sure, not influenced by the
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: results of yesterday's elections.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Let's talk a bit about should Germany actually be more
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  Speaker 1: worried because of these elections, or is this a good sign?
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  Speaker 1: What's your take on it?
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  Speaker 2: Neither one of them.
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  Speaker 3: So, first of all, we respect the American voters' results
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  Speaker 3: and their votings and everything.
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  Speaker 2: The U.S.
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  Speaker 3: Will remain our closest ally, both with regard to defense, security,
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  Speaker 3: but also trade outside of the European Union. We think
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  Speaker 3: on a daily basis, especially under the continued threat by
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  Speaker 3: the Russian Federation, by the Russian President Vladimir Putin, that
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  Speaker 3: we have this concept.
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  Speaker 2: Of, nuclear sharing, the U.S.
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  Speaker 3: Protection umbrella above Germany is very precious to us and
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  Speaker 3: secures our sheer existence here. So there's one thing, this
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  Speaker 3: will continue and there's no sign whatsoever that this will
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  Speaker 3: fade away in any regard. Should we be worried, yes
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  Speaker 3: or no? I don't think so. These changes that have
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  Speaker 3: started already under the Obama presidency. So many years ago,
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  Speaker 3: with regard to pivot to Asia is one thing, then
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  Speaker 3: from burden sharing to burden shifting, that is with regard
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  Speaker 3: to defense spending, taking care of our own security, taking
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  Speaker 3: up more responsibility for our security here. The USA are
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  Speaker 3: not just going away. Withdrawal of troops, defense culture. Yes,
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  Speaker 3: something is changing. We know that, which is okay. I
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  Speaker 3: want to add one thing to that, which is very
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  Speaker 3: important to understand is burden shifting. I have full understanding,
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  Speaker 3: which is okay for me, it should be okay to
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  Speaker 3: all of us, that the U.S.
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  Speaker 2: Will save and secure.
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  Speaker 3: Also our interests in the South China Sea, in the Indo-Pacific,
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  Speaker 3: straight of Taiwan, where we have business and trade interests,
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  Speaker 3: and we don't have the capabilities.
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  Speaker 2: We cannot do that.
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  Speaker 3: If the American friends are secure in not only their interests,
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  Speaker 3: but also ours, in this part of the world, it's okay.
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  Speaker 2: It's actually a good thing. At the same time, We.
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  Speaker 3: Need to step up here to take care and build
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  Speaker 3: up a defense industrial base in Europe, which is just underway.
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  Speaker 1: But you're talking about Trump like he's a rational actor.
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  Speaker 2: He's not. We know that.
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  Speaker 1: He wasn't. He was not. And let me get back
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  Speaker 1: to that picture of an angry bird. If he's now angry,
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  Speaker 1: he has nothing left to lose. Isn't that something we
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  Speaker 1: here in Germany should be worried about?
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  Speaker 3: Again, I mean, I would not say worried. Concerned is
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  Speaker 3: a different word. We should focus and concentrate on our
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  Speaker 3: own interests. There's a lot of things that are going
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  Speaker 3: very well, smoothly across the Atlantic. In the defense sector,
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  Speaker 3: joint operations. Just recently, the German defense minister was in Washington, D.C.
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  Speaker 3: in the second half of September. Both administrations, Pete Haxeth
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  Speaker 3: and Boris Pistorius, who's our defense minister, signed an agreement,
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  Speaker 3: an MOU on a more intensified, closer defense cooperation, which
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  Speaker 3: is a good sign. As I said earlier, trade and
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  Speaker 3: business are doing fine. So with regard to the U.S. president,
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  Speaker 3: you see my point. He is the most powerful man,
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  Speaker 3: person on this planet, being the U.S.
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  Speaker 2: President.
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  Speaker 3: You cannot turn a blind eye on him. You cannot
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  Speaker 3: ignore him. So he's super influential and powerful and everything.
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  Speaker 3: He makes decisions that also have an effect on us.
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  Speaker 3: But I want to come to the point, not only
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  Speaker 3: comment and concentrate and focus only on this single individual
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  Speaker 3: called the US President, Donald Trump, there's so much more
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  Speaker 3: that we can do on our side of the island.
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  Speaker 2: We have to do.
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  Speaker 3: We should not waste time on only focusing on Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 3: Invest time on what we can do over here.
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  Speaker 1: And what will you change in your work? Also with
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  Speaker 1: your links to the United States?
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  Speaker 3: A very pragmatic matter is There will be different colleagues now,
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  Speaker 3: for example, chairperson of the subcommittee for European affairs. Used
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: to be Bill Keating, a Democrat, now it's Keith Self,
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  Speaker 3: Republican from Texas. So I don't know who's going to.
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  Speaker 2: Be the next one.
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  Speaker 3: It's an important congressman or congresswoman who's chairing that because
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  Speaker 3: this is one of our main colleagues on the House
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  Speaker 3: side to engage. about European politics, discussing these things. You know,
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  Speaker 3: what does that all mean for us? Where do we
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  Speaker 3: have a, can we create a joint transatlantic agenda?
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  Speaker 1: For terrorists, for example, because that is within the realm
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  Speaker 1: of Congress?
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, look, there's a lot of talk about it,
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  Speaker 3: and I think we will see some change in the
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  Speaker 3: very high-ranking, cabinet-ranking personnel. So Secretary of Defense slash War,
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  Speaker 3: Pete Hexer, might be one of, you know, this is
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  Speaker 3: the name that always comes up, that might be changed.
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  Speaker 2: Even in USDR.
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  Speaker 3: So, might, you know, or commerce, there might be changes.
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  Speaker 3: So that means, on a very practical matter, there are
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  Speaker 3: different persons that we're meeting, that we're talking. And I,
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  Speaker 3: you know, I never experienced, and there's like over 17
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  Speaker 3: years of being who I am now, member of the
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  Speaker 3: Formulations Committee, Transatlantic Rapporteur, as we call it, here in
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  Speaker 3: the Bundestag, never in this over 17 years experienced that nobody,
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  Speaker 3: that people didn't didn't show an interest in sitting together
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  Speaker 3: with someone like me or my colleagues, having an open ear,
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  Speaker 3: and we might not agree on everything. And we don't
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  Speaker 3: need a 100% alignment in all things.
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  Speaker 2: That's good.
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  Speaker 3: I would expect that from different countries thousands of miles apart.
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  Speaker 3: But so on a practical matter, getting to know your
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  Speaker 3: new counterparts, who is that, where can we have overlapping interests,
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  Speaker 3: where we can do things together and not concentrate on
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  Speaker 3: what divides us, but rather on where we can agree
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  Speaker 3: on things.
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  Speaker 2: So that's, I think, a solid basis, and it's there.
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  Speaker 2: I see that.
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  Speaker 3: Democrats and also Republicans, we have a solid fundamental basis
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  Speaker 3: for a joint transatlantic agenda.
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  Speaker 1: What is your message in a nutshell to the new Congress?
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  Speaker 2: Empowered. You are empowered.
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  Speaker 1: U.S.
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  Speaker 2: Congress is empowered.
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  Speaker 3: You are more in control of the government because both
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  Speaker 3: sides are now under control of one party, the Senate
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  Speaker 3: and the House.
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  Speaker 2: The House. So use that.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, this democracy, separation of power, balance of power,
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  Speaker 3: use that. And also think of us over here on
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  Speaker 3: this side of the Atlantic. Talk to us. Don't surprise
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  Speaker 3: us with decisions. that are not good for both sides,
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  Speaker 3: do something together with us, coordinate, cooperate with us. We
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  Speaker 3: are your closest allies and partners. We're both on the
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  Speaker 3: same side.
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  Speaker 1: Mr. Bayer, thank you very much for finding some time today.
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  Speaker 2: It was my pleasure. Thank you very much.