Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | November 23, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: Fall System, Stone, clear your lift.
- 0:37Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody? Happy Thursday, Happy Friday, Happy Saturday.
- 0:41Speaker 2: Happy whenever you listen to the show, and I will
- 0:44Speaker 2: stay from the top. You probably are not listening on Saturday,
- 0:46Speaker 2: or if you are, you probably will be disappointed. Because
- 0:50Speaker 2: three a m. Eastern start time Saturday morning, the UFC
- 0:54Speaker 2: is headed over to China, and you can see we
- 0:57Speaker 2: are sharing the stone like we always do over here.
- 1:00Speaker 2: This will all be filled out, ownership projections, et cetera.
- 1:03Speaker 2: The members color coded as well. I'm a made the stone,
- 1:07Speaker 2: as you can see, though, we have a lot of
- 1:10Speaker 2: names that I'm absolutely going to butcher. That is when
- 1:13Speaker 2: you know it is a three AM card, it will
- 1:15Speaker 2: be butchered. You guys will know what we're talking about.
- 1:17Speaker 2: We're gonna go on to the top like always. How
- 1:20Speaker 2: we're doing, No big Marley.
- 1:23Speaker 3: Man, we're doing.
- 1:25Speaker 4: I don't know if I want to wake up at
- 1:26Speaker 4: three o'clock. I don't know how many lineups I'm gonna
- 1:29Speaker 4: have for this card. I actually did my research like
- 1:32Speaker 4: two two or three days ago, two and three days ago,
- 1:36Speaker 4: and right before we got on, I was doing ownership
- 1:39Speaker 4: and I'm like, which.
- 1:41Speaker 3: One is this guy? Which one.
- 1:42Speaker 4: Yeah, I have I need pictures. I have pictures up
- 1:45Speaker 4: to remind me of who is who. But it's kind
- 1:47Speaker 4: of starting to fade on me. This is gonna be
- 1:50Speaker 4: this like the toughest card of all time because I
- 1:52Speaker 4: don't even remember who's who, who's good it was. It's
- 1:55Speaker 4: gonna be a tough.
- 1:55Speaker 2: One, absolutely, I will say though. It's a great DFS card.
- 2:00Speaker 2: There's no doubt about that. Price are a little smaller
- 2:02Speaker 2: than usual because it is three am. I will be
- 2:05Speaker 2: getting up, no doubt about that. Me and the boys. Hey,
- 2:07Speaker 2: right away, I want to shout out my man Siggy.
- 2:09Speaker 2: Last week, shout out Big Marley. Big Marley wins ten
- 2:13Speaker 2: thousand dollars qualifier seat. I'm not going to take any credit.
- 2:16Speaker 2: It was Big Marley, but he tweeted it out chippin Nation.
- 2:20Speaker 2: We were over the news, SIGGI texted me again, I'm
- 2:23Speaker 2: not taking any credit. That's a buddy that was over it.
- 2:26Speaker 2: Nothing was announced that the fight Eric Candor's fight was
- 2:28Speaker 2: going to be off, but saw a couple reports trickling in.
- 2:32Speaker 2: I take the discord, I said, I don't know what's
- 2:34Speaker 2: going on. I was driving, I lost my connection. I
- 2:37Speaker 2: could even swap. I was tilted Global Swap. A lot
- 2:40Speaker 2: of people learned about that. I know Big Marley did
- 2:42Speaker 2: that hoop to that. We were all over the news.
- 2:45Speaker 2: I heard other people weren't. I'm not sure ownership wise though,
- 2:48Speaker 2: widen and still got a lot. Andrews still got some
- 2:51Speaker 2: a huge leg up and they got shout out to
- 2:53Speaker 2: our man. Big Marley last week got himself a qualifier
- 2:56Speaker 2: seat Needa. John Jones at the end, I saw you.
- 2:59Speaker 2: I was sweating with the John Jones. Your boy got
- 3:02Speaker 2: the job done. I will say, actually, I want to
- 3:04Speaker 2: ask you Tom Aspinall John Jones, who wins um?
- 3:11Speaker 4: I mean, I'll say John Jones because he's the greatest
- 3:13Speaker 4: of all time. But if anyone's gonna beat John Jones,
- 3:15Speaker 4: it's Tom Aspinalls. I think he's super left.
- 3:18Speaker 2: John looks a little slow, man. I think Tom pieces
- 3:21Speaker 2: them up, knocks him out. But anytime I take that,
- 3:24Speaker 2: anytime I think that John Jones or whoever the goats
- 3:28Speaker 2: are the greatest, try and bet against. They always prove
- 3:30Speaker 2: you wrong. But man, I don't know Tom Aspinall. I
- 3:33Speaker 2: think for me, when we get to that fight, hopefully
- 3:36Speaker 2: we get that fight, will be my pick, but Tom's
- 3:39Speaker 2: not on the earth Tom or John's not on the card.
- 3:41Speaker 2: In terms of this one though, again, I think it's
- 3:43Speaker 2: a great DFS card. Thirteen fights, fingers crossed. We keep
- 3:47Speaker 2: all thirteen. Pricing is very fair. Ownership again, this will
- 3:51Speaker 2: be up. You have to be a pre you have
- 3:52Speaker 2: to be a member at SCHIF the nation. Ownership is
- 3:55Speaker 2: very important on this site or on the IMMA in general.
- 3:58Speaker 2: Nobody above fifty percent. We have Peter Young the highest
- 4:02Speaker 2: at forty seven percent. In the main event. I do
- 4:05Speaker 2: think ownership spread out that's good. Thirteen fights is good.
- 4:08Speaker 2: One favorite, big boy, favorite, big girl favorite. I should
- 4:11Speaker 2: say minus nine hundred. Otherwise no one else about minus
- 4:14Speaker 2: four fifty. Great DFS card in my opinion, I think
- 4:19Speaker 2: play who you think is gonna win and score well,
- 4:21Speaker 2: can leave a little money. I think there's zero dollar
- 4:24Speaker 2: lineups that will also be good. Clear leverage spots, low
- 4:27Speaker 2: owned places that we can attack on this card. Any
- 4:29Speaker 2: initial thoughts, I see you have your fight rankings up,
- 4:32Speaker 2: your stars, otherwise you can get right into it, go
- 4:34Speaker 2: bottom to top.
- 4:36Speaker 4: Yeah, I kind of think it's it's more of a
- 4:37Speaker 4: like Stars and Scrubs type A week a lot of
- 4:40Speaker 4: people will be going around that nine K range and
- 4:44Speaker 4: then targeting the five round fight. But is just a
- 4:48Speaker 4: tough one. I need you to kind of refresh my
- 4:50Speaker 4: memory as we go along. But congrats to Sean Sullivan
- 4:54Speaker 4: on fifty K the other night or was it last night?
- 4:56Speaker 2: Yesterday?
- 4:57Speaker 3: Yeah, yesterday? Congrats man, that's huge.
- 5:00Speaker 2: Shout out Sean Salivan, always supporting Sean. Awesome stuff. NBA
- 5:04Speaker 2: is going on right now, NFL is going on. No
- 5:06Speaker 2: better time. Get over ship the nation. Let's talk some
- 5:09Speaker 2: fights again. I'm gonna butcher every single name. You do
- 5:11Speaker 2: not need to tell me in the comments. We are
- 5:13Speaker 2: gonna go bout in the top so you can figure
- 5:16Speaker 2: out who I'm talking about. And a lot of times,
- 5:18Speaker 2: like when we get to this next fight, I'm gonna
- 5:20Speaker 2: say long, I'm gonna say quaint. You guys can figure
- 5:23Speaker 2: it out from there. But let's start first fight of
- 5:25Speaker 2: the night. Mahashate taking that Nicholas Moda minus one ninety
- 5:29Speaker 2: is Mahashate plus one sixty five is Nicholas Mota. I
- 5:33Speaker 2: did want to mention other thirteen fights, only four are
- 5:36Speaker 2: expected to finish. This is one of them, minus two
- 5:40Speaker 2: fifty to finish. I also want to point out, like
- 5:42Speaker 2: always I put these in Tuesday, these initial odds I
- 5:46Speaker 2: do like for myself. Comparing the initial odds are the
- 5:49Speaker 2: current odds that I'm reading right now versus what it
- 5:52Speaker 2: was Tuesday. To track that kind of line movement, the
- 5:55Speaker 2: most significant line movement is the week of the fights.
- 5:58Speaker 2: That's when most people do look at them, and then
- 6:00Speaker 2: I'll update it tomorrow morning. So as you can see
- 6:03Speaker 2: minus two hundred, the fight is supposed to finish Tuesday
- 6:05Speaker 2: now minus two fifty. People like the under That makes
- 6:09Speaker 2: me like it more for DFS fair price takes on
- 6:11Speaker 2: both sides. Mahashate minus one twenty inside the distance Nicholas
- 6:15Speaker 2: Moda plus three to ten. I'll stay right from the
- 6:18Speaker 2: get go. I like this fight a lot. I'm gonna
- 6:21Speaker 2: play a lot of it. It is striker versus striker, though,
- 6:24Speaker 2: as you can see on the stone, no takedowns, so
- 6:26Speaker 2: if it goes to decision, it probably doesn't get their
- 6:30Speaker 2: favorite to finish, though again, not many favorite finishes on
- 6:33Speaker 2: the card. Last thing that stands out on the stone
- 6:36Speaker 2: seven year age difference for mahashat three inches in height
- 6:40Speaker 2: for Masata, take it away, What do you see.
- 6:44Speaker 4: Yeah, striker vers striker matchup. I don't really see either
- 6:46Speaker 4: one of these guys shooting for takedowns. They're live if
- 6:50Speaker 4: they get the knockout in the first or second round,
- 6:54Speaker 4: third round, probably a little bit too late, even Mada
- 6:57Speaker 4: because he Mada's just not high volume at all.
- 6:59Speaker 3: He's super low volume.
- 7:00Speaker 4: He's got heavy hands and he throws some bombs, so
- 7:03Speaker 4: he is live for the knockout. But I just think
- 7:05Speaker 4: Mahasht is the better overall boxer, probably more durable. I
- 7:10Speaker 4: trust him a little bit more at this point. I
- 7:13Speaker 4: think he's gonna be a little higher volume as well.
- 7:16Speaker 4: So I'm picking ma Shate to get the win, but
- 7:18Speaker 4: I got it as a three star there because of
- 7:22Speaker 4: the whole knockout or bus. I'd rather target fights that
- 7:24Speaker 4: have more grappling upside. But I'm fine throwing either one
- 7:28Speaker 4: of these guys in my lineups. I doubt it'll end
- 7:30Speaker 4: up in my single entry. But if I was, like,
- 7:34Speaker 4: I don't know, ten to twenty, ten to thirty percent
- 7:37Speaker 4: on either side, I'd probably be cool with that.
- 7:40Speaker 2: I'm with you, I'm with you, but I like to
- 7:43Speaker 2: fight more than you. I'd probably do a four star
- 7:45Speaker 2: my preferred side actually is Mashate because I think there's
- 7:50Speaker 2: plenty of live dogs on this car, and I'm just
- 7:51Speaker 2: picking Maleschate to win. I think he's more durable. I
- 7:54Speaker 2: think that's what it comes down at the end of
- 7:56Speaker 2: the day. Both guys have power, but I'll take Mashatte's
- 7:59Speaker 2: big dome and his chin over Moto, who's been crracked.
- 8:02Speaker 2: I think four or five times he's been knocked out.
- 8:05Speaker 2: But again, I'm not one hundred percent on this fight.
- 8:08Speaker 2: I'm not actually making Rule teen one hundred percent of
- 8:10Speaker 2: any fight, assuming we do keep all thirteen and the
- 8:13Speaker 2: reason for that in this one and again primary strikers,
- 8:16Speaker 2: both of them pretty low volumes so far. If they
- 8:19Speaker 2: respect each other's power and it goes to the distance
- 8:22Speaker 2: or just the third round, it probably doesn't get there.
- 8:24Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm in on this fight, no doubt. I
- 8:27Speaker 2: do like to see fifty cents on the under as well.
- 8:30Speaker 2: Let's keep it rolling, gonna get into some of these
- 8:32Speaker 2: names that I'm absolutely gonna butcher. Again, I'm keeping it
- 8:35Speaker 2: easy though. We got Long taken on Quang minus one
- 8:39Speaker 2: forty six is Long plus one. Twenty six is Kuang
- 8:42Speaker 2: plus one forty for this fight to finish. Long plus
- 8:46Speaker 2: two seventy inside the distance, Quaang plus three fifty. Take
- 8:50Speaker 2: it away. What do you see?
- 8:53Speaker 4: Yes, one I'm not too sure about. I don't even
- 8:57Speaker 4: have a real lean in this one. I think Quang.
- 8:59Speaker 3: Is the better overall wrestler.
- 9:04Speaker 4: I kind of like Long just to be the more exciting,
- 9:08Speaker 4: more active fighter. I think from my memory, I feel
- 9:12Speaker 4: like he's decent everywhere. I don't know if he's He's
- 9:16Speaker 4: not really good like any anywhere, but I feel like
- 9:19Speaker 4: he could beat Kwang on the feet, whether it be
- 9:21Speaker 4: a knockout or fifteen minute striking match. We probably need
- 9:25Speaker 4: the knockout though, or grappling for him to have any
- 9:29Speaker 4: real upside though, And I just don't know what kind
- 9:32Speaker 4: of game plan he's gonna come with, honestly. And then Quang,
- 9:34Speaker 4: if he wins, I would imagine there's a takedown or
- 9:37Speaker 4: a few takedowns along the way. He could keep top
- 9:40Speaker 4: control for a while. I'm just fine with either side
- 9:44Speaker 4: of this fight. It's kind of like the last one.
- 9:46Speaker 4: Just give me either guy, But I'm not gonna force
- 9:48Speaker 4: it into lineups. I just have no idea how this
- 9:51Speaker 4: one's gonna play out I was more impressed, or I
- 9:54Speaker 4: guess I enjoyed Long's fights more so I picked him
- 9:59Speaker 4: as the winner. But real lean, I'd probably prefer the
- 10:02Speaker 4: plus money side either way if I were to bet it.
- 10:05Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have a strong lean on this one too,
- 10:08Speaker 2: And I'll admit, like a lot of these road to
- 10:10Speaker 2: UFC fights, I was kind of gonna try and lean
- 10:12Speaker 2: on you, I'm leaning on props. Like we've seen Long fight.
- 10:16Speaker 2: Quain made his UFC debut against Chris Gutierrez on short notice.
- 10:20Speaker 2: He only land in sixteen strikes. That's not good at all. Yes,
- 10:23Speaker 2: Chris Cutiers is tough, though he made it all fifteen minutes.
- 10:27Speaker 2: Coutier is way better than Long. Quainn did get two takedowns,
- 10:31Speaker 2: which you do like to see there, but Long can
- 10:33Speaker 2: get some takedowns himself. As you see one takedown per
- 10:36Speaker 2: fifteen minutes. The volume's fine. I think the volume is
- 10:40Speaker 2: just better than Quang, which is why I'm leaning that side.
- 10:42Speaker 2: And I also like to see again. Looking at the
- 10:44Speaker 2: stone minus one twenty two on Tuesday now, Minus won
- 10:48Speaker 2: forty six. I value that twenty cents, especially in fights
- 10:52Speaker 2: that I'm really close on. I definitely do value that.
- 10:55Speaker 2: What I will say in a lot of my queen lineups,
- 10:58Speaker 2: I will probably be leaving two hundred plus right there.
- 11:01Speaker 2: Easy pivot and that's a way to eliminate dupes. Just
- 11:04Speaker 2: build a long team, drop long down to Kuang. That'll
- 11:07Speaker 2: get you a little different right there. So not much
- 11:10Speaker 2: more to add. But again I agree with three star
- 11:13Speaker 2: right there. Like I like the Mashat fight more. But
- 11:15Speaker 2: a lot of these fights coming up, these road to
- 11:17Speaker 2: UFC fights and stuff a lot of three stars for
- 11:20Speaker 2: me on this car. But the thing is, we need
- 11:23Speaker 2: six winners on the optimal ownership, no one over fifty
- 11:26Speaker 2: percent we have right now and thirteen fights. So I
- 11:29Speaker 2: think this is very well a card that could have
- 11:32Speaker 2: under five dupes and that always excites me more so
- 11:35Speaker 2: I'll be up at one am my time, i will
- 11:38Speaker 2: be playing some tournaments and I'm excited to hopefully make
- 11:40Speaker 2: some cheese. Let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card,
- 11:44Speaker 2: we got Lanier Cavana taking on Jose Ocha conye or
- 11:51Speaker 2: how do you pronounce his name again? Covana Lanier Kavana
- 11:56Speaker 2: Kavana sounds right to me. So covin A taking on
- 11:58Speaker 2: Ocha minus one spot. I would have thought Kevianna minus
- 12:03Speaker 2: won sixty five plus two ninety on the Ocha side
- 12:06Speaker 2: minus won forty for this fight to finish Cavanaugh plus
- 12:09Speaker 2: one thirty Ocha plus three sixty five. What stands out
- 12:13Speaker 2: to me right away in this one, Big Marley Ocha
- 12:15Speaker 2: is the only one who has not had like a
- 12:17Speaker 2: road to UFC fight, has not had a Contender series
- 12:20Speaker 2: fight just making his UFC debut. Both of these guys
- 12:24Speaker 2: seven to zero, twenty five years old for Cavanaugh, twenty
- 12:28Speaker 2: three for Ocha. Kevina did take the Dana White Contender
- 12:31Speaker 2: Series approach, which is why I do think the line
- 12:33Speaker 2: is where it's at. Ochas fought some bums. He will
- 12:36Speaker 2: be three inches bigger though I could not find a
- 12:39Speaker 2: reach advantage, but he looks to be big for the
- 12:42Speaker 2: division and watching the tape again, the opponents are not good,
- 12:45Speaker 2: so it's hard to put much stock into it. He
- 12:48Speaker 2: seems just like a brawler though, like he's willing to
- 12:50Speaker 2: fight and he's gonna fight for your money. Young kid,
- 12:53Speaker 2: looks like you could take some shots. I'm expecting a
- 12:56Speaker 2: banger in this one. I'm gonna play Cavin on no
- 12:59Speaker 2: doubt about he's expensive, he's a fair price tag. The
- 13:02Speaker 2: fight supposed to finish plus one thirty is good, But
- 13:05Speaker 2: I do think Ojis actually probably might preferred play because
- 13:08Speaker 2: any win could be optimal. This line feels wide because
- 13:12Speaker 2: there's a lot of unknowns on the Oja side. So yeah,
- 13:15Speaker 2: tell me how you see it? Do you see it
- 13:16Speaker 2: the same?
- 13:18Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm looking forward to this fight.
- 13:20Speaker 2: This is my.
- 13:23Speaker 4: Second favorite fighter on the card probably, Uh. I think
- 13:26Speaker 4: both of these guys are pretty good. Kavanaugh he's got
- 13:29Speaker 4: I'd say he's got more one punch power. He's probably
- 13:32Speaker 4: the more overall technical striker. I'd say he's the better wrestler.
- 13:37Speaker 4: But Ochoa was I thought he was good everywhere and
- 13:40Speaker 4: he's exciting.
- 13:40Speaker 2: Man.
- 13:41Speaker 4: He brings it every single fight. He's coming forward right away,
- 13:44Speaker 4: full action. So I think that's gonna help the Kavanaugh
- 13:48Speaker 4: side as well. Otherwise, I think Oho is super live
- 13:51Speaker 4: to just beat him on volume, just outwork him over
- 13:54Speaker 4: the course of three rounds. Ochoa hasn't even been to
- 13:57Speaker 4: a decision yet, but I think that's live if it
- 14:00Speaker 4: goes the distance.
- 14:01Speaker 3: But either one of these guys could get a finish.
- 14:03Speaker 4: Ocho is probably a little bit more reckless uh and
- 14:07Speaker 4: more likely to get caught.
- 14:09Speaker 3: But maybe his.
- 14:10Speaker 4: Aggressiveness will be too much for Kavanaugh. So I just
- 14:13Speaker 4: like both sides of this fight.
- 14:14Speaker 3: I thought the line was a little bit too wide,
- 14:17Speaker 3: so I leaned with in this one. I'll be higher
- 14:20Speaker 3: on him.
- 14:21Speaker 2: I like it two for two. I'm definitely on the
- 14:23Speaker 2: show aside too, I plan on having more. I'm gonna
- 14:26Speaker 2: play some Cavanaugh too. I think it's a fun fight.
- 14:28Speaker 2: But yeah, at this price tag, the odds feel disrespectful.
- 14:32Speaker 2: And again, Kevanaugh's fought the better competition and it's still undefeated,
- 14:37Speaker 2: while Ocha has fought at competition. But I'll embrace the
- 14:40Speaker 2: unknowns we see these. Last week, Yan Top Junkyard dog
- 14:45Speaker 2: Man eight big shots absolutely put it on hoofy Hoof.
- 14:52Speaker 2: He still got to win, but he didn't look minus
- 14:54Speaker 2: nine hundred, minus eleven hundred whatever he closed that So
- 14:57Speaker 2: hoping a similar performage four minutes for Ocha. Keep it
- 15:02Speaker 2: rolling to the next fight on the card. We have
- 15:05Speaker 2: Carlos Hernandez taking on Tumin Barel. Absolutely Butcher the name,
- 15:11Speaker 2: you guys get who I'm talking about. I do not
- 15:13Speaker 2: know how many letters is in that name. It is
- 15:16Speaker 2: way more than I'm saying. Tumin is what we're gonna
- 15:18Speaker 2: go with. As I wrote in the slate, playing Tom,
- 15:21Speaker 2: that's all you got for me. But Hernandez minus one
- 15:23Speaker 2: eighty three plus one fifty eight plus one ten for
- 15:27Speaker 2: this fight to finish, we have both actually take that
- 15:31Speaker 2: back Toom is or plus two to fifty to finish.
- 15:34Speaker 2: Hernandez is plus two eighty five. So looking at the stone,
- 15:38Speaker 2: plus one twenty, this fight was Tuesday to finish. Now
- 15:41Speaker 2: it's plus one ten, so money came in on the
- 15:43Speaker 2: under a little bit. Both Carlos Hernandez and Tom have
- 15:46Speaker 2: been on the under a bit as well. My initial
- 15:50Speaker 2: thought was Carlos Hernandez at eighty six hundreds too expensive,
- 15:55Speaker 2: But I actually think I'm gonna and I was not
- 15:57Speaker 2: gonna really get any I might keep them in my
- 15:59Speaker 2: pool now he can be a junkyard dog. He has
- 16:02Speaker 2: a UFC experience. Finnish chick prop has gotten a lot
- 16:06Speaker 2: better at plus two eighty five now, so yeah, I
- 16:08Speaker 2: actually have a little more interest in this fight than
- 16:10Speaker 2: I thought. Tom is still my preferred side, though for
- 16:12Speaker 2: the one case savings, I do think he has the
- 16:15Speaker 2: wrestling grappling upside. As we can see in the stone,
- 16:18Speaker 2: But how do you see this fight?
- 16:22Speaker 3: Yeah, Tom Tum over here he is.
- 16:26Speaker 4: He's my pick, but it's kind of just like I
- 16:28Speaker 4: haven't seen enough of him to see the flaws. He's
- 16:32Speaker 4: still kind of green. He's young in his career, but
- 16:33Speaker 4: I think he's like eight to no and he's aggressive,
- 16:37Speaker 4: and he's another one where on the feet he was
- 16:39Speaker 4: super aggressive, swinging bombs high volume, and then he could
- 16:43Speaker 4: shoot takedowns. He looked like a pretty decent wrestler and
- 16:45Speaker 4: grappler as well, So he's my preferred play. I think
- 16:48Speaker 4: he just has more upside. I think he's probably a
- 16:51Speaker 4: better wrestler, more likely to shoot, just the higher volume
- 16:55Speaker 4: striker as well. So I would rather have my money
- 16:58Speaker 4: on one thousand dollars less of a salary and then
- 17:01Speaker 4: Hernandez eighty six hundred.
- 17:04Speaker 3: I really don't want any Hernandez, but if.
- 17:06Speaker 4: I'm gonna end up high on Tom Tum, then I
- 17:10Speaker 4: think I want a little bit of hedge money on
- 17:13Speaker 4: Hernandez just in case, like forty percent of my lineups
- 17:17Speaker 4: are dead with that guy. So I don't really see
- 17:20Speaker 4: Hernandez like from what I saw, I don't see him
- 17:23Speaker 4: being better.
- 17:26Speaker 3: I don't know anywhere.
- 17:27Speaker 4: I guess at least early in the fight, but maybe
- 17:29Speaker 4: he could tire this guy out and then put it
- 17:31Speaker 4: on him late. He's got some decent volume himself. When
- 17:34Speaker 4: he wants to, he can mix in some takedown. So
- 17:37Speaker 4: I'm not against Hernandez, but I just like to pay
- 17:40Speaker 4: up a little bit more for the nine k rnge instead.
- 17:43Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm coming around to Hernandez a bit. So we
- 17:45Speaker 2: have his ownership in nineteen percent. Let's say that he's
- 17:49Speaker 2: plus two eighty five to finish. That equals twenty six
- 17:52Speaker 2: percent probability eighty six hundred. Do you tell me Carlos
- 17:55Speaker 2: Hernandez gets a finish, I'd want to be overweight. So
- 17:58Speaker 2: I'm actually going to reverse the little bit. I still
- 18:00Speaker 2: prefer Tom Tum is my preferred play. Again, he's plus
- 18:03Speaker 2: two fifty and he's cheaper, but Hernandez is lower owned,
- 18:07Speaker 2: and I do think Tom Tom will be higher own
- 18:09Speaker 2: and we do have that as well. So Hernandez is
- 18:12Speaker 2: a clear direct leverage play on this slate. I wouldn't
- 18:15Speaker 2: be surprised and Fernandez was like fifteen percent, Tom Tom
- 18:18Speaker 2: was twenty five or something like that. I keep saying TomTom,
- 18:21Speaker 2: I keep seeing you smile every time. But yeah, people
- 18:25Speaker 2: know who we're talking about. No disrespect, of course, I
- 18:28Speaker 2: just I'm not gonna try and butcher that name every
- 18:30Speaker 2: single time I say it. Yeah, I have a little
- 18:34Speaker 2: more interest in Hernandez than I initially thought. Do think
- 18:37Speaker 2: this fight Hernandez I low own Tom time, gets some ownership,
- 18:42Speaker 2: keep it going to another fight on the card. And
- 18:44Speaker 2: this is where we get to the actually no, oh yeah,
- 18:48Speaker 2: the first of three you rod to UFC championship fight.
- 18:52Speaker 2: So this fight right here, this next fight CHOI, and
- 18:56Speaker 2: then you fight. All three of these road to UFC,
- 19:00Speaker 2: So they're not currently in the UFC. They're still going
- 19:03Speaker 2: to be scored the exact same as normal. Just expect
- 19:06Speaker 2: lower level competition, a skill gap difference for the most part.
- 19:09Speaker 2: But as you can notice as well before you get
- 19:12Speaker 2: into it, all three of them are expected to go
- 19:14Speaker 2: the distance plus two seventy five plus one forty plus
- 19:18Speaker 2: one twenty two finish. Let's start off with the second
- 19:21Speaker 2: most likely fight to go the distance on the card,
- 19:24Speaker 2: but also the second biggest favorite on the card, and
- 19:27Speaker 2: she has taken money since Tuesday. We have feg taken
- 19:32Speaker 2: on Ming again, I'm not doing the whole names. Fang's
- 19:35Speaker 2: the favorite, Ming's the dog. Minus four to ten for Fang,
- 19:39Speaker 2: plus three ten for Ming, plus two to seventy five
- 19:42Speaker 2: for this fight to finish, Fang plus three to fifty
- 19:45Speaker 2: inside the distance, Ming plus seven hundred. So I'll throw
- 19:49Speaker 2: it to you. Obviously you don't like this fight. Two stars,
- 19:52Speaker 2: I have in agreement. You have all of it on
- 19:54Speaker 2: the Fang side. I'm in agreement as well. I am
- 19:56Speaker 2: fading Ming and twenty in below. But I really don't
- 19:59Speaker 2: know how much Fang I even want. She's ninety two hundred.
- 20:02Speaker 2: She has to do something back inside the distance prop
- 20:05Speaker 2: plus three fifty. I definitely would much prefer Peter Jan.
- 20:09Speaker 2: But of course, if she somehow outscores Yan too the world,
- 20:13Speaker 2: that's when you can get solo ship or She is
- 20:15Speaker 2: definitely a pivot in the upper tier. How do you
- 20:18Speaker 2: see this fight going out?
- 20:21Speaker 3: Yeah? I like Fang. She's like twenty two years old.
- 20:24Speaker 4: I thought she looked pretty good already, and I just
- 20:26Speaker 4: expect her to improve each time Outming didn't really look
- 20:30Speaker 4: good anywhere. I didn't see enough of her to see
- 20:33Speaker 4: where she looked good. Anyways, I feel like she was
- 20:35Speaker 4: even losing a lot of the fights that I saw.
- 20:38Speaker 4: I'm gonna x meing out of my lineups, evenough with
- 20:40Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty, I think I'm just gonna x
- 20:42Speaker 4: her out. But Fang, I don't know what her ownership's
- 20:46Speaker 4: gonna be like, but I feel like she's someone I
- 20:48Speaker 4: could see me being over the field on. She can
- 20:51Speaker 4: throw out decent volume. She's the one I expect to
- 20:54Speaker 4: be marching forward. She could get a TKO, but I
- 20:58Speaker 4: like when she mixes in her wrestling, and I think
- 21:00Speaker 4: she is gonna get the If she wants to fight
- 21:02Speaker 4: to the ground, I think she's gonna get it there,
- 21:04Speaker 4: and I think she could probably dominate the fight and
- 21:07Speaker 4: maybe get a ground and pound finish or a submission
- 21:09Speaker 4: at some point. So I like Fang, I will get
- 21:12Speaker 4: exposure to her. But Ming is just a full X
- 21:15Speaker 4: out for me.
- 21:18Speaker 3: Yeah, even one hundred and fifty line's not gonna have.
- 21:19Speaker 2: Any I'm with you if I had one hundred and fifty,
- 21:23Speaker 2: which I probably won't have. They lowered the contest a
- 21:26Speaker 2: little bit this week, but I might have one hundred teams.
- 21:29Speaker 2: I'm not gonna play any of Ming either. She beats me,
- 21:31Speaker 2: She'll beat she beats me. I still don't think I'm
- 21:34Speaker 2: gonna have a ton of fang, but I wouldn't be surprised, honestly,
- 21:37Speaker 2: if fan's like twenty five percent owned something like that.
- 21:40Speaker 2: She's the second biggest favorite on the card. How much
- 21:42Speaker 2: wrestling upside do you think she has in this one?
- 21:44Speaker 2: Or do you think she just keeps on the feet.
- 21:46Speaker 4: I would imagine she goes for at least a takedown.
- 21:50Speaker 4: I would say one and a half takedowns before setting
- 21:52Speaker 4: a prop.
- 21:53Speaker 2: I like it. Yeah, that definitely adds more interest for sure,
- 21:56Speaker 2: and I pivot in the upper tier, no doubt about that.
- 22:00Speaker 2: The first of three road UFC fights. Getting the next
- 22:03Speaker 2: one right here, dong Hun Choi taking on Sahota. We
- 22:08Speaker 2: have a straight up pick'em homie, as the kids like
- 22:11Speaker 2: to say, minus one ten apiece on both sides, plus
- 22:15Speaker 2: one forty for this fight to finish, both guys the
- 22:17Speaker 2: same inside the distance prop at plus three to zero five.
- 22:21Speaker 2: So looking at yours, you have it a two star good.
- 22:23Speaker 2: I like it. I'm fading Choi. I'm putting a little
- 22:26Speaker 2: Hernandez ownership. I'm fading Choi. In twenty teams in below,
- 22:30Speaker 2: I will play some Sahota again a minus one ten
- 22:34Speaker 2: and you get six hundred dollars savings. I do think
- 22:37Speaker 2: it's just pretty much on the feet though, and it
- 22:40Speaker 2: probably goes to decision. So I don't like this fight.
- 22:42Speaker 2: I want to be underweight. I do prefer the six
- 22:44Speaker 2: hundred savings with Sahota unless you talk to me in
- 22:47Speaker 2: the CHOI, which based on your rankings, I don't think
- 22:50Speaker 2: you will. I'm gonna now fade him in twenty below.
- 22:55Speaker 4: Yeah this is this is that tall guy Sahota.
- 23:00Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, So how does the five inch reach advantage?
- 23:03Speaker 3: Yeah, yep, yeah he was.
- 23:06Speaker 4: He was my picking this one because I really didn't
- 23:08Speaker 4: I wasn't super impressed with either side, but I did
- 23:12Speaker 4: think that his heightened reach advantage could come into play,
- 23:15Speaker 4: especially if this is a striking match.
- 23:18Speaker 3: I just have no lean in this one.
- 23:20Speaker 4: So it's another one where it's like, give me the
- 23:22Speaker 4: plus money if I had to bet it type of way.
- 23:24Speaker 4: But I didn't see enough to be super impressed with
- 23:27Speaker 4: either side. I'm not gonna ex either one of them
- 23:29Speaker 4: out of my pool just because I don't really know
- 23:30Speaker 4: too much about him. But I was a little bit
- 23:33Speaker 4: more impressed with the Shota side. I think he can
- 23:36Speaker 4: use that length and take two rounds on the cards,
- 23:39Speaker 4: but that's probably not gonna do us any good on Draftking.
- 23:42Speaker 4: So mostly gonna be a fade for me, but I'll
- 23:44Speaker 4: keep a little bit in there just in case makes sense.
- 23:48Speaker 2: Right now, I'm gonna fade joy, But if I see
- 23:50Speaker 2: line movement again, any late steam stuff like that, if
- 23:53Speaker 2: the under gets hit, maybe that'll change again. All the
- 23:56Speaker 2: content will be up tomorrow. Projections, ownership, slate, plan everything,
- 24:00Speaker 2: ship a Nation. You do want to get in the
- 24:02Speaker 2: discord though, again that's right tagged everyone. Four minutes is
- 24:06Speaker 2: all the time we had get in the discord. If
- 24:08Speaker 2: you do play as well, have an MMA notifications on
- 24:12Speaker 2: in our discord instead of like you getting blown up
- 24:14Speaker 2: from PGA, NASCAR, Baseball, etc. If you play the sports,
- 24:18Speaker 2: you turn on the notifications. If you don't, you won't
- 24:21Speaker 2: get flown up with that. So no better spot to
- 24:23Speaker 2: be again. Scroll up ship a Nation dot Com Join
- 24:26Speaker 2: the Nation weekly, monthly, annual packages, ship Tomizer included as
- 24:31Speaker 2: well our own optimizer. No better time to join. Look
- 24:34Speaker 2: at the NFL's going, College football is going, NBA is
- 24:36Speaker 2: going NHL is going, MMA is going. No better time
- 24:40Speaker 2: to head over Thanksgiving next week. Big boy football Slades
- 24:44Speaker 2: can't wait for that, Big Marley. Let's keep it going.
- 24:46Speaker 2: Next fight on the card four star right here again,
- 24:50Speaker 2: This is the last of the road to UFC fights.
- 24:53Speaker 2: Four stars good and I agree with you. We got
- 24:55Speaker 2: you taking on Bear. That's how I'm gonna say again,
- 25:00Speaker 2: right but you taking on Bear makes it very easy.
- 25:03Speaker 2: We have you minus one sixty three Bear plus one
- 25:07Speaker 2: forty three plus one forty five for this fight to finish.
- 25:10Speaker 2: Both guys again, the same inside the distance prop this
- 25:13Speaker 2: time plus two to eighty five. What stands out to
- 25:16Speaker 2: me in this one, Big Marley, the first of all
- 25:20Speaker 2: Bear three inches in height, five inch reach advantage mainly
- 25:24Speaker 2: what stands out you? Six takedowns. That is only a
- 25:28Speaker 2: two fight road to UFC sample eight takedowns and one
- 25:31Speaker 2: but this dude looks to chain wrestle for days. Not
- 25:34Speaker 2: even the best control two like minutes and forty seconds
- 25:38Speaker 2: off control of time and eight takedowns not great, but
- 25:41Speaker 2: that's a DFS dream right there. Bear has some takedowns
- 25:44Speaker 2: two one point nine Another thing I love to see
- 25:47Speaker 2: both guys submission prop is better than their KO prop.
- 25:51Speaker 2: So everything I'm seeing this fight is gonna play out
- 25:53Speaker 2: on the mat quite a bit. That's great for DFS
- 25:57Speaker 2: price right in the mid tier, all the fights in
- 25:59Speaker 2: the mid tier to go to the distance. This is
- 26:01Speaker 2: my favorite in the mid tier, one of my favorite
- 26:04Speaker 2: fights on the card at price and ownership. How do
- 26:07Speaker 2: you see this fights? Yeah? Take it away.
- 26:11Speaker 3: Yeah. I think this is a good fight to target because.
- 26:15Speaker 4: You is primarily a grappler, Like he's just all It
- 26:19Speaker 4: looks like he's just always shooting for a takedown at
- 26:22Speaker 4: some point he wants to be in top control. When
- 26:24Speaker 4: he gets it there, he's pretty decent. I mean, he's
- 26:26Speaker 4: not great. That's why he's able to get like six
- 26:28Speaker 4: or eight takedowns. It's because eventually the guy gets up.
- 26:31Speaker 4: But I mean while he's in top control, he looks
- 26:33Speaker 4: like he knows what he's doing at least. But that's
- 26:35Speaker 4: what he's gonna have to do to win. I think
- 26:37Speaker 4: that's all he's really good at. And then bear Gang.
- 26:40Speaker 4: I think Bear Gang's decent on the ground too. He
- 26:42Speaker 4: could submit him, he could get takedowns of his own.
- 26:44Speaker 4: I think he's a lot quicker on the feet. The
- 26:46Speaker 4: better overall, striker more dangerous on the feet, so I'm
- 26:50Speaker 4: gonna prefer the.
- 26:52Speaker 3: Underdog in this one.
- 26:54Speaker 4: Both of them have high ceilings though in my opinion,
- 26:56Speaker 4: so it's closer to a five star than three star probably,
- 27:01Speaker 4: But it's all because that U side just wants to
- 27:04Speaker 4: grapple at all times. So I'm hoping that Bear gang
- 27:08Speaker 4: beats him to the punch and he beats him at
- 27:11Speaker 4: his own game.
- 27:12Speaker 3: But I'll get exposure to both sides of this fight.
- 27:16Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have a If I had to pick
- 27:18Speaker 2: a pervert side, it's you again. The main reason for
- 27:21Speaker 2: that Tuesday minus one forty five was you. Now he's
- 27:24Speaker 2: minus one sixty three. He actually opened minus one thirty
- 27:28Speaker 2: so line movement on the U side. I love all
- 27:31Speaker 2: the takedowns, but at the end of the day, I
- 27:33Speaker 2: want a lot of both. If I had more Bear
- 27:35Speaker 2: I'd be fine. And what I love about the Bear
- 27:37Speaker 2: side four hundred dollars price difference. You can always leave
- 27:41Speaker 2: four hundred plus on any team. Eliminate stoopes that way
- 27:45Speaker 2: didn't pull up pair By's comment, we appreciate you. Pair
- 27:47Speaker 2: By probably in the NBA discord right now. Grind in
- 27:51Speaker 2: Og always love to see a pair buy let's keep
- 27:55Speaker 2: it rolling. Next fight on the card again thirteen to
- 27:57Speaker 2: talk about three am Eastern in China, So definitely set
- 28:00Speaker 2: an alarm our. Content will be up tomorrow afternoon. I
- 28:03Speaker 2: will definitely be building on Friday. Next fight Ning Yang
- 28:07Speaker 2: Zang taking on OsmAnd Diez. We have Ozsi Diaz. Yeah,
- 28:13Speaker 2: I don't know why fight Oz had it. I thought
- 28:15Speaker 2: it was wrong Ozzi Diz minus three twenty five is
- 28:18Speaker 2: Zaying plus two to seventy five is Diz minus seven
- 28:22Speaker 2: hundred for this fight to finish, we have Zag minus
- 28:26Speaker 2: two to seventy five inside the distance DS plus three
- 28:30Speaker 2: seventy five, so you look at it minus six hundred
- 28:33Speaker 2: on Tuesday. Now, it's minus seven hundred to finish minus
- 28:36Speaker 2: three oh five saying now minus three twenty five minus
- 28:40Speaker 2: two seventy five for him to finish this fight in
- 28:43Speaker 2: a tier of his own, no doubt about it. When
- 28:45Speaker 2: it comes to that, under one and a half minus
- 28:48Speaker 2: two to sixty round one props in this one. Zang
- 28:51Speaker 2: plus one twenty five DS plus five fifty. I mean,
- 28:55Speaker 2: I don't really know what more needs to be said
- 28:57Speaker 2: than great fight to target. I'll have a you have
- 29:00Speaker 2: it as a five star, and I cannot agree more
- 29:03Speaker 2: with your rankings, so take it away.
- 29:06Speaker 3: Yeah, someone's probably getting finished in this one. These guys have.
- 29:12Speaker 4: Thirty four combined pro fights, thirty three of them have ended.
- 29:17Speaker 3: Inside the distance. I thought that.
- 29:21Speaker 4: Zaying just looked like the better overall striker, cleaner, overall
- 29:25Speaker 4: more dangerous. I actually got plus money on Joe Pifer
- 29:31Speaker 4: over Ozzi Diaz though, so I mean that's kind of
- 29:34Speaker 4: respect that they were giving him. It was like a
- 29:36Speaker 4: very slight favorite over Joe Pifer, So I mean that's
- 29:39Speaker 4: that's respect right there.
- 29:40Speaker 3: If you want to go on that. I do think
- 29:42Speaker 3: it's kind of it's kind of close like skill wise.
- 29:45Speaker 4: So with that gap in the line, I'm not against
- 29:49Speaker 4: going down to Ozzi Diaz, but meng Yang is my pick.
- 29:53Speaker 4: I'm gonna pick him to get the knockout, just not
- 29:56Speaker 4: as much confidence as as Vegas has, I guess this point.
- 30:00Speaker 4: So that's one I'm not gonna make a rule to
- 30:02Speaker 4: be all in, but this is probably one I want,
- 30:04Speaker 4: like eighty percent of my lineups just go hard on
- 30:07Speaker 4: this one. Expect or hope for the early knockout, but
- 30:11Speaker 4: give me Zag to get it.
- 30:13Speaker 2: I like it. I absolutely like it. I'm gonna have
- 30:16Speaker 2: a bunch of it. Zang is still my preferred play though,
- 30:18Speaker 2: because I think enough dogs on this card and where
- 30:21Speaker 2: we're looking at ownership, it's spread out enough. Give me
- 30:24Speaker 2: the guy that's minus two seventy five to finish this fight.
- 30:26Speaker 2: He looks to be the better striker. He will be
- 30:29Speaker 2: higher on Diaz is great leverage that way, and I
- 30:31Speaker 2: will have some with a big with his big ceiling.
- 30:35Speaker 2: But I mean, if Zang, what do we have met
- 30:38Speaker 2: right now? We have him at thirty five percent, give
- 30:40Speaker 2: me forty five percent, give me fifty five percent. Like
- 30:43Speaker 2: he's got a bunch of upside.
- 30:44Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'm gonna up him and lower Hernandez
- 30:47Speaker 4: a little bit.
- 30:48Speaker 3: Ownership wise though, Yeah.
- 30:50Speaker 2: I agree with you. Again. Everything will be up tomorrow,
- 30:52Speaker 2: so that's the benefit of being a member. Projections will
- 30:57Speaker 2: be up as always if anything changes, we always let
- 31:00Speaker 2: everybody know in discord. Keep it wrong. I'm excited for
- 31:04Speaker 2: this fight, Carlos Alberg, I know these names taking on
- 31:06Speaker 2: Vulcan uz Demir minus two forty Alberg plus two h
- 31:10Speaker 2: five is uz Demir minus one ninety for this fight
- 31:13Speaker 2: to finish, So one of four fights Alberg minus one
- 31:16Speaker 2: time to finish uz Demir plus three seventy five. Too fast,
- 31:21Speaker 2: too powerful is Carlos Alberg. I think he knocks out Volcan.
- 31:26Speaker 2: The thing is, with all that being said, I still
- 31:29Speaker 2: don't know how much I love Carlos Alberg. And yeah,
- 31:32Speaker 2: you have it the exact same four star all calls
- 31:35Speaker 2: Carlos Albert. I was gonna pick Alberg against my guy
- 31:38Speaker 2: sweet dreams. I think he's if Perere beats anklive. I
- 31:43Speaker 2: think in the fight I want to see most is
- 31:45Speaker 2: Pereira Alberg. He's a great kickboxer. One of is these
- 31:48Speaker 2: guys powerful, can stay composed, hits like a truck. How
- 31:53Speaker 2: he blitzes in and out like his speed is crazy.
- 31:56Speaker 2: Light kicks are good. I mean, yeah, I think Carlosberg
- 32:00Speaker 2: knocks out Volcan. I think the speed difference is too much.
- 32:03Speaker 2: The thing is, though even a second round Alberg ko
- 32:07Speaker 2: might not be enough. I think we need one ten
- 32:10Speaker 2: a setter. We got Peter Jan one hundred more than
- 32:12Speaker 2: Alberg Zang. We just talked about two hundred more. We
- 32:16Speaker 2: need a good score. Last thing, I want to mention
- 32:19Speaker 2: about those scores and I'll throw it to you for
- 32:21Speaker 2: Carlos Albert his uh his first round finishes one O six,
- 32:26Speaker 2: one O six, one o five, and ninety seven, and
- 32:30Speaker 2: then when he did get the first minute bonus, he
- 32:33Speaker 2: got actually no. One O six, one o six, one
- 32:35Speaker 2: oh five for normal first round knockouts one to twenty
- 32:38Speaker 2: eight when he got the bonus, and ninety seven for
- 32:40Speaker 2: a third round finish. I don't know if one O six,
- 32:43Speaker 2: one o six, one oh five and ninety sevens enough,
- 32:46Speaker 2: and he got a first round knockout in three of those,
- 32:48Speaker 2: so yeah, that's my only concern. Take this one away.
- 32:53Speaker 3: I would say give me one o six at that price.
- 32:55Speaker 4: I'm heavy on it. But yeah, I like I like
- 32:58Speaker 4: Olberg here. I mean he should be undefeated. I don't
- 33:03Speaker 4: know how Kennedy and Chuku survived that on slot crazy.
- 33:08Speaker 2: But I think it was the best thing that could
- 33:10Speaker 2: have happened to his career.
- 33:12Speaker 4: Yeah, unless he could have just walked through everybody that way,
- 33:14Speaker 4: that's sick. Yeah, but yeah, I think he's dangerous man.
- 33:22Speaker 4: He's a much better overall striker. He's a lot more dangerous.
- 33:26Speaker 4: We've seen him work on his ground game as well.
- 33:29Speaker 4: I don't know that even Vulcan is better at wrestling
- 33:33Speaker 4: at this point. Vulcan's got knockout power too, but I
- 33:36Speaker 4: don't think he can hang with Oldberg in a three
- 33:39Speaker 4: round striking match, especially if Olberg's actually throwing volume. This
- 33:44Speaker 4: is almost Olberg are past for me. I'm thinking that
- 33:47Speaker 4: the field's gonna be a little bit higher than I
- 33:49Speaker 4: want to be on Vulcan. So I'll let him have him,
- 33:52Speaker 4: and I'll get me some Oldberg. Maybe I'll get some leverage.
- 33:55Speaker 4: I won't be too far underweight. I don't know how
- 33:57Speaker 4: much leverage I'll get, but he's somebody I'm definitely interested
- 34:00Speaker 4: in that.
- 34:01Speaker 2: I agree. I mean, I think minus two forty's too short,
- 34:04Speaker 2: and I don't say that very often. I mean, I
- 34:06Speaker 2: think alert Alberg walks them parlay piece. Yeah, yeah, someone's
- 34:09Speaker 2: gonna clip this and I'm gonna look like a donkey.
- 34:11Speaker 2: That's MMA, but I mean it's yeah, I love Alburg
- 34:15Speaker 2: at this price, and I really don't say that about
- 34:17Speaker 2: many minus two forty favorites in MMA.
- 34:20Speaker 3: Same. Yeah, yeah, I like it.
- 34:23Speaker 2: I'm with you. I'm actually very well might hit as well.
- 34:25Speaker 2: I'm not even parlay just a couple of unit play
- 34:29Speaker 2: on a big money line and Jake Paul type thing.
- 34:31Speaker 2: Shout out to you, Big Marley though, Jake Paul collected
- 34:34Speaker 2: us big boy bucks. So that was awesome. Yeah, yes
- 34:37Speaker 2: it was. Jason Turner. What's going on? Ooh, sweating first
- 34:41Speaker 2: place for NHL. Great stuff. You use the stone. Hey,
- 34:46Speaker 2: I'll show the people real quick. Don't get back to MMA. NHL.
- 34:49Speaker 2: The stone. This is what our man, Jason Turner used.
- 34:51Speaker 2: This is what we have a chipping nation, the stone
- 34:53Speaker 2: for all sports. How many games do we have today? Two? Three, four?
- 34:57Speaker 2: Big boy slates? Look at that nothing but or everything's
- 35:00Speaker 2: confirmed hockey. It's just like baseball. If you like baseball
- 35:04Speaker 2: and correlation. It shows the color scheme. Nothing better. The
- 35:07Speaker 2: stone is the nuts for NHL. The line. You want
- 35:10Speaker 2: to stack lines because you get assists, assist goals, power
- 35:13Speaker 2: play lines, shots on goal, projection, ownership. Man, that is
- 35:17Speaker 2: a beauty looking at the NHL stone. Total spreads good stuff, Jason,
- 35:21Speaker 2: Good luck to you there. Shut out our mannates runs
- 35:24Speaker 2: the NHL departments.
- 35:25Speaker 3: Hell yeah, I'm gonna have to play some NHL sometimes.
- 35:28Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's definitely. Uh. We don't have shift tomizer
- 35:32Speaker 2: over here for it. So but like if you have
- 35:34Speaker 2: solver or you want to handbuild, but it's clear, like
- 35:37Speaker 2: baseball five to one stacking stuff. You just stack teams,
- 35:41Speaker 2: you stack lines because when they score again, you can
- 35:44Speaker 2: get multiple points from different guys in one outcome. So
- 35:47Speaker 2: it's really easy that way. Not much mental thought where
- 35:50Speaker 2: it's NBA's someone asked me yesterday, it's like there is
- 35:53Speaker 2: no correlation. You pick the best value, the best guys.
- 35:56Speaker 2: You hope they do well. Like there's no quarterback to
- 36:00Speaker 2: a receiver and a run back. Stuff like that hockey.
- 36:03Speaker 2: There is set rules. So yeah, getting the discord. I'm
- 36:06Speaker 2: sure Kim, big maids all that would like to help
- 36:09Speaker 2: you out. If anyone wants to dabble, Let's get back
- 36:11Speaker 2: to talking fights. Our man, our man, Our woman. Wang
- 36:16Speaker 2: Kong is the biggest favorite on the card. It was
- 36:19Speaker 2: minus eight hundred now minus nine hundred taken on Gabriel
- 36:23Speaker 2: Fernandez plus one fifteen. For this fight to finish, we
- 36:27Speaker 2: have Wang plus one thirty Fernandez plus nine hundred. I
- 36:31Speaker 2: will not play Gabriel Fernandez with five thousand teams. Wang interesting,
- 36:38Speaker 2: I'll play some big boy strikes per minute, big boy
- 36:42Speaker 2: takedown per fifteen. I will say that as a small
- 36:45Speaker 2: UFC sample, But man, did she make a statement or
- 36:48Speaker 2: UFC debut under a minute knockout or whatnot? Was it
- 36:51Speaker 2: a minute two seconds? I believe minute too. I think
- 36:54Speaker 2: she just missed it, but showed some power for the division.
- 36:57Speaker 2: I'll throw it to you, how much you see grapple
- 37:00Speaker 2: or wrestle? I should say, do you think she just strikes?
- 37:04Speaker 3: Now?
- 37:04Speaker 4: I think she just strikes. She's primarily a striker from
- 37:06Speaker 4: what I've seen. I would actually say if anyone wrestles
- 37:11Speaker 4: in this one, it's Fernandez. But she is a striker too,
- 37:16Speaker 4: so this should be a striking match, both of them
- 37:18Speaker 4: getting what they want. But Kong just looks like the
- 37:20Speaker 4: better and more dangerous striker. So that's why I think
- 37:23Speaker 4: Fernandez could shoot, just because she's not winning the striking game.
- 37:28Speaker 4: But Kong's gonna need a finish at ninety six hundred
- 37:32Speaker 4: and that's a big time price tag, and I just
- 37:34Speaker 4: don't think volume is gonna be there for her to
- 37:36Speaker 4: even get like a third round knockout and be enough.
- 37:40Speaker 4: So I'm guessing I'm gonna go underweight to Kong. I
- 37:43Speaker 4: definitely don't want Fernandez either, but I have thought about
- 37:47Speaker 4: I'm okay, using her at sixty six hundred if that
- 37:50Speaker 4: gets me everything else I like on the card because
- 37:53Speaker 4: I could see her even losing a decision and scoring
- 37:57Speaker 4: like thirty five points, and maybe that cuts it on
- 38:00Speaker 4: this card. And I also think she's live to win
- 38:02Speaker 4: that decision if it does go the distance. So throw
- 38:05Speaker 4: on thirty points. Now we're sitting at sixty five. I
- 38:09Speaker 4: don't know that she has much more than ten x ceiling,
- 38:12Speaker 4: but I don't know that we needed at that price egg,
- 38:13Speaker 4: so I'm gonna keep her in like a max of
- 38:16Speaker 4: ten percent, prefer closer to five.
- 38:18Speaker 2: Though that makes sense, that makes sense. I'm not playing Fernandez.
- 38:22Speaker 2: I'll play some Wayne Kong. Do I love it? No?
- 38:25Speaker 2: Because of the price tag for Peter Yan preferred Allberg
- 38:29Speaker 2: savings prefer Mashade preferred Zaying. So how much do I get?
- 38:35Speaker 2: I don't know, but I do think her ownership's definitely
- 38:37Speaker 2: in check, and it's not like, yeah, you're confidence. She
- 38:41Speaker 2: doesn't wrestle, So I will say that does lower my
- 38:43Speaker 2: interests a little bit. Let's keep her all three fights
- 38:47Speaker 2: left on the card. Some old guys going at it.
- 38:49Speaker 2: Forty year old Muslim Salakov taking on song Kanan. Looking
- 38:53Speaker 2: at the odds of this one minus one seventy five
- 38:56Speaker 2: is Salakov, plus one fifty is Song minus won ten
- 38:59Speaker 2: for the fight to finish, we have plus one ninety
- 39:04Speaker 2: on the Salakov side plus three twenty five on the
- 39:07Speaker 2: song Canon side. I want to shout out Cloud, appreciate
- 39:11Speaker 2: you hanging out. He said, Fade, the old guy that
- 39:14Speaker 2: just lost the ponds his last fight. If you know,
- 39:17Speaker 2: you know, My guess is what he's saying is fade
- 39:20Speaker 2: Salakov because he won against Ponzinnibbio split decision. Yeah, he
- 39:27Speaker 2: got taken down twice. Striking was close. We've seen worse robberies.
- 39:31Speaker 2: I agree, though Salakov I think is more around one
- 39:34Speaker 2: or bust, and I prefer the song Canon's side for
- 39:37Speaker 2: that reason. Low volume. I don't think he's really taken
- 39:41Speaker 2: down song Kanon, you let me know if you do things. So,
- 39:43Speaker 2: I don't know if he has the Cardialo will do
- 39:45Speaker 2: that for fifteen minutes. But I see striker versus striker
- 39:48Speaker 2: Salakov more kicks Song Canon more boxing minus one ten
- 39:52Speaker 2: for to finish, though, so talk to me.
- 39:57Speaker 3: Yeah, Salakov definitely first round or knockout or bust. He's
- 40:00Speaker 3: low volume.
- 40:03Speaker 4: Like he has maybe two takedowns in his game. I'd
- 40:07Speaker 4: say give me the under on even one and a
- 40:10Speaker 4: half because I think song Canon's a better grappler. I
- 40:14Speaker 4: also think son Canon's allowed to leave land a couple
- 40:17Speaker 4: of his own takedowns here. I think Canon's the better,
- 40:21Speaker 4: not better, but just the more the higher volume striker,
- 40:26Speaker 4: and both guys are alive for a knockout.
- 40:27Speaker 3: So at that price, for sure, give me song Canon
- 40:31Speaker 3: as my preferred play.
- 40:32Speaker 4: I'm not I'm probably not gonna play any salad CoV
- 40:35Speaker 4: at eighty five hundred dollars. If you get the first
- 40:37Speaker 4: round knockout, it's gonna burn me. But I twenty or less,
- 40:41Speaker 4: I'm not playing them one hundred and fifty. I'll keep
- 40:43Speaker 4: them in my player pool. But give me like ten
- 40:45Speaker 4: percent something like that. I think this should be closer
- 40:49Speaker 4: to pick him. Give me son Canon to win.
- 40:52Speaker 2: Yeah, let's see plus four fifty and round one in
- 40:56Speaker 2: Saladkov that's eighteen percent. I think eighteen percent would be
- 40:59Speaker 2: a sound number then, And I think eighteen percent honestly
- 41:04Speaker 2: might be overweight, and we do have fed as overweight,
- 41:07Speaker 2: so that's how I don't get it.
- 41:09Speaker 4: Eighteen percent to be honest, give me a I don't
- 41:12Speaker 4: even want fifteen percent salad CV, I'll maximoumz.
- 41:15Speaker 2: If I told you got a first round knockout, you
- 41:17Speaker 2: wouldn't want fifteen percent.
- 41:19Speaker 4: If you told me he was gonna get that, but
- 41:21Speaker 4: he hadn't had that. It's like twenty nineteen. I want
- 41:24Speaker 4: to say for sure, I'm.
- 41:25Speaker 2: Just going based on literally you got me into this
- 41:28Speaker 2: more than anyone is just going odds plugging in the converter.
- 41:31Speaker 2: And then there's been like comparing it to ownership, and
- 41:34Speaker 2: like a first round knockout is eighteen percent, and if
- 41:38Speaker 2: he's gonna be low, Like so I get it though,
- 41:41Speaker 2: like my my brain, my dome is telling me that
- 41:43Speaker 2: same thing, but he is, yeah, yeah, I yeah. I
- 41:48Speaker 2: mean you use him and chalk your lineups. And again
- 41:51Speaker 2: there's very solid zero dollar lineups, like leaving zero dollars
- 41:54Speaker 2: this week, so I wouldn't worry about that. How about
- 41:57Speaker 2: so you prefer Choy for one hundred less than Salakov
- 42:01Speaker 2: and you prefer Hernandez for one hundred more, because to
- 42:04Speaker 2: be honest, I don't like any of these three, but
- 42:07Speaker 2: that's kind of like what I'm deciding, Like who's gonna
- 42:09Speaker 2: be the fade. Who am I gonna get a little
- 42:11Speaker 2: bit of? But yeah, how many rank those three? Eighty
- 42:13Speaker 2: six eighty.
- 42:16Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to fade all three of them.
- 42:18Speaker 2: It's gross.
- 42:19Speaker 4: I'm not gonna get too much exposure to those three.
- 42:23Speaker 4: I would say for the unknowns, give me Choi first.
- 42:29Speaker 3: Oh man um.
- 42:32Speaker 2: Mind Hernandez Salakov Choi, I think, but I don't know.
- 42:38Speaker 3: I'm honestly gonna fade all three. Yeah, there you go,
- 42:41Speaker 3: using any of them.
- 42:42Speaker 2: There you go. I love to hear. It's two fights
- 42:44Speaker 2: left on the card. Again, all we asked from you
- 42:47Speaker 2: guys like button subscribe but helps us out a ton
- 42:50Speaker 2: three a m. Eastern time, the UFC is headed to China.
- 42:54Speaker 2: Get your tournaments in and uh gross yeah gross is right. Yeah,
- 43:00Speaker 2: get those lineups in Friday. Everything will be up. Head
- 43:03Speaker 2: over to ship in nation dot com comin event time.
- 43:06Speaker 2: The Woman's division most likely fight to go the distance
- 43:09Speaker 2: on the card Yan Jean Nahn taking on Tabitha Ricci.
- 43:13Speaker 2: Minus one ninety is Yan plus one sixty five is Ricci.
- 43:18Speaker 2: This fight is plus two seventy five to finish. Yan
- 43:22Speaker 2: plus four hundred inside the distance Ricci plus six hundred
- 43:26Speaker 2: what I'll say right here, I don't like yan either,
- 43:29Speaker 2: like I don't even know. I'll throw Yawn in that
- 43:31Speaker 2: same Muslim like the same category eighty eight hundred. So
- 43:35Speaker 2: she's more expensive than all of them, worst inside the
- 43:38Speaker 2: distance propped by double than Saladkov, she's plus four hundred.
- 43:42Speaker 2: What she does have going for her is she's a
- 43:45Speaker 2: very good striker, and she's it's clearly striker versus wrestler.
- 43:50Speaker 2: And she has solid volume, but she's never scored more
- 43:53Speaker 2: than ninety. She did score ninety once, but never more
- 43:56Speaker 2: than ninety in a decision to win. And when she
- 43:58Speaker 2: scored ninety, she's still land at one hundred and fifty
- 44:00Speaker 2: significant strikes, like plus four hundred, like that'd be the
- 44:04Speaker 2: most i'd want. And again it's twenty percent, then you
- 44:08Speaker 2: gotta I don't even know if that's enough, Like I
- 44:10Speaker 2: don't want. I don't want twenty percent, yon, I do
- 44:12Speaker 2: know that because I don't know if wrong three is
- 44:14Speaker 2: good enough or whatever it may be in the day,
- 44:18Speaker 2: I think i'd bey on maybe the last of all
- 44:20Speaker 2: of them, because of her price, and she can spend
- 44:23Speaker 2: a whole round off her back or something, fighting off
- 44:25Speaker 2: takedowns and Landa's shot in the second round and that's
- 44:28Speaker 2: still not enough. So yeah, I'm fading Yan. I'm playing
- 44:31Speaker 2: Ricci just because her style fits so well on a win.
- 44:34Speaker 2: But my pick is Yon by decision because I think
- 44:37Speaker 2: she out points, she outstrikes, she hurts Ricci, but Ricchie
- 44:41Speaker 2: can survive. So I just took that a million ways.
- 44:44Speaker 2: But hey, you could have your own real life thoughts
- 44:46Speaker 2: on a fight and DFS wise can be a little different,
- 44:49Speaker 2: and that's what we play here, a salary based game.
- 44:52Speaker 2: How do you see this fight going down?
- 44:55Speaker 3: Yeah, I basically disagree with everything that you said. I'm
- 44:58Speaker 3: pickingy On to win because I think she a better
- 45:00Speaker 3: overall strikeer, gonna keep it on the feet for the
- 45:03Speaker 3: most part.
- 45:05Speaker 4: But I'm just not interested in eighty eight hundred dollars
- 45:07Speaker 4: because if she's not getting a knockdown, she's probably just
- 45:10Speaker 4: not gonna have high enough volume to get there, and
- 45:11Speaker 4: she probably does spend a little bit of time on
- 45:13Speaker 4: her back. My preferred play is gonna be Ricci because
- 45:17Speaker 4: if Ricci wins, there will be wrestling involved. It could
- 45:20Speaker 4: be multiple takedowns, it could be domination in top control,
- 45:24Speaker 4: and she has some striking too. She can land some
- 45:26Speaker 4: strikes along the way. So Ricci is my preferred play
- 45:30Speaker 4: of the two, even though I'm picking her to lose. Yeah,
- 45:33Speaker 4: it's another one where Yhon's in that group. I'm fine
- 45:35Speaker 4: getting rid of all of them. Let's use the underdogs
- 45:38Speaker 4: in those four fights and then mix in these higher
- 45:41Speaker 4: priced favorites.
- 45:42Speaker 2: I like it. I'll be doing a lot of that
- 45:44Speaker 2: as well. The fight I always can never get out
- 45:47Speaker 2: of my head is the Carlos Barza Yan fight. I
- 45:50Speaker 2: got way too much on Yan and I had zero
- 45:53Speaker 2: chance the whole way and it was absolutely milk centers
- 45:57Speaker 2: like domination, literally domination on the map, second round, finish,
- 46:01Speaker 2: bloody elbows, crucifix. Karla did whatever she wanted. Don't think
- 46:06Speaker 2: Tabitha is that level of wrestling. Do you think she's
- 46:09Speaker 2: a better grappler? But and I do. As twenty twenty one,
- 46:12Speaker 2: Yan is a much. She worked on her takedown defense
- 46:16Speaker 2: and defense are wrestling a lot. We saw it in
- 46:17Speaker 2: the Duram fights, but way Lee still took her down
- 46:20Speaker 2: plenty of times last fights. So yep, that's my thoughts
- 46:23Speaker 2: on that one. No, Yan, give us Ricci as the
- 46:26Speaker 2: favorites or as our preferred play as the underdog made
- 46:30Speaker 2: iBOT Tom big Marley great work as always, curious to
- 46:33Speaker 2: hear your take on this one. You have five stars,
- 46:36Speaker 2: but you have the stars relatively close. Peter Jan taking
- 46:39Speaker 2: on Davison figuredo minus three ten is Yan plus two
- 46:44Speaker 2: sixty is figuredo plus one twenty for this fight to finish,
- 46:48Speaker 2: Yan plus one seventy five inside the distance figy plus
- 46:52Speaker 2: five point fifteen. My question you throw right away. Are
- 46:56Speaker 2: you going to make a rule to have one hundred
- 46:58Speaker 2: percent of this fight? If so, why, If so, why not?
- 47:02Speaker 2: And then how are you gonna approach this fight for DFS.
- 47:05Speaker 3: Now, I'm not gonna make a rule.
- 47:06Speaker 4: I could see just other people in Yan's range outscoring him, So.
- 47:13Speaker 3: Not gonna make a rule.
- 47:14Speaker 4: But I'm gonna be high on Yon, Like, give me
- 47:17Speaker 4: Yan over all those people that we just mentioned that
- 47:20Speaker 4: we don't want to play, Like, yeah, that'll up my
- 47:22Speaker 4: exposure to Yan. I'll get more fang for that reason too.
- 47:27Speaker 4: But Jan will be one of my highest stolen guys
- 47:29Speaker 4: on the entire card. I just think he's a little
- 47:31Speaker 4: bit better everywhere. I like the pace that he pushes
- 47:33Speaker 4: on the feed. I think he's a better striker and
- 47:36Speaker 4: he can go hard for five rounds too. He can
- 47:38Speaker 4: mix in takedowns if he wants to. The Only real
- 47:42Speaker 4: edge i'd give to Figuredo is he's the better or
- 47:44Speaker 4: more dangerous grappler, but he is live to win in
- 47:48Speaker 4: a five round matchup. So I want Figgy exposure to
- 47:51Speaker 4: the way I see them. My head is something like
- 47:53Speaker 4: sixty five percent Yon twenty twenty Figuredo something like that,
- 48:00Speaker 4: seventy twenty five, something.
- 48:02Speaker 3: Along those lines. But give me Yan to win four
- 48:06Speaker 3: rounds and take it on the cards.
- 48:09Speaker 2: I can't add anything more. I think it's probably forty
- 48:12Speaker 2: nine forty six, something like that. Yan. You get Figgy
- 48:15Speaker 2: runs one or two when he's most fresh, maybe gets takedowns,
- 48:19Speaker 2: some control time. Yan always notorious, slow starter, He gets reads,
- 48:23Speaker 2: turns it on as the fight goes. And yeah, our
- 48:27Speaker 2: odd or our ownership. Right now, we have Yon forty seven,
- 48:30Speaker 2: Figgy forty one. Let's just say I think it's something
- 48:33Speaker 2: like fifty two thirty seven. I still want something like
- 48:37Speaker 2: sixty seven percent Yan, twenty five percent Figgy. I totally agree.
- 48:42Speaker 2: I think Yan is volume advantage. You can turn it
- 48:45Speaker 2: on Yan right there, and again, I do see Big
- 48:47Speaker 2: Marley making some changes with ownership everything. That's why we
- 48:51Speaker 2: talked through the show. Everything will be up tomorrow. I
- 48:55Speaker 2: want overweight to Yon, even though I think he's the
- 48:58Speaker 2: highest on the slate, and maybe he is the only
- 49:00Speaker 2: one in fifty, I still want more. You have so
- 49:02Speaker 2: many pass there's plenty of ways to get difference. Figgie,
- 49:05Speaker 2: I think will be over owned because he's a dog
- 49:08Speaker 2: in the main event and a big name, so I
- 49:10Speaker 2: want to be under him. But any win of his
- 49:13Speaker 2: is almost always optimal. So it's not like I want
- 49:15Speaker 2: to fade. So I play a lot of teams, balance
- 49:17Speaker 2: my portfolio. Then this fight will be again. We have
- 49:20Speaker 2: it about ninety percent combined ownership. I want a small
- 49:24Speaker 2: percentage of a fade because if Yan wins a decision,
- 49:27Speaker 2: but saying out scores all Burgout scores Hernandez, whatever it
- 49:31Speaker 2: may be, and one hundred and three isn't enough, well,
- 49:34Speaker 2: tons of lineups are dead. You're playing against very few
- 49:37Speaker 2: for a lot of cheese. I can see that happening.
- 49:40Speaker 2: Big Marley Elsa could see that. So I'm not making
- 49:43Speaker 2: a role on any of these fights. And you and
- 49:45Speaker 2: I were in agreement on a lot of this card,
- 49:47Speaker 2: and we listed that like eight four, eight, five eight six,
- 49:50Speaker 2: Like there's a lot of dead spots that we think
- 49:52Speaker 2: you can avoid. I'm gonna be avoiding those big boy dogs.
- 49:56Speaker 2: I hope to get the right combo from there, Big Marley.
- 49:58Speaker 2: I feel good going to this one. Any final thoughts
- 50:02Speaker 2: on this card and great work as always.
- 50:04Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't feel good, but I have an alarm
- 50:07Speaker 4: set to just check for any late cancelations, any discord.
- 50:12Speaker 4: Tweets from titled thanks to Siggy, who knows that that
- 50:16Speaker 4: actually could have been the reason I took down the
- 50:19Speaker 4: qualifier last week, because I mean I was heavy on Tybora,
- 50:22Speaker 4: but I global swapped Andrews to Tybora, So that could
- 50:28Speaker 4: have been why I want to Yeah.
- 50:30Speaker 2: You never know. I mean it definitely didn't hurt. It
- 50:32Speaker 2: also helped main cast value. I saw a lot of
- 50:35Speaker 2: people in there thinking again, I didn't even give it
- 50:37Speaker 2: a lot of people didn't get it as well. Its
- 50:39Speaker 2: four minutes. I'm not trying to take credit again. It
- 50:42Speaker 2: was all Siggy, but four minutes you could still have
- 50:45Speaker 2: room to global swap. If you're on your computer, you
- 50:48Speaker 2: can make that work. And that was I think like
- 50:50Speaker 2: thirty five percent of the field like those are those
- 50:52Speaker 2: little edges that you can get. And it's all the sports.
- 50:55Speaker 2: NBA Rio's doing it all the time, NFL Tamo's doing
- 50:58Speaker 2: it all the time. We're in there hagging people. No
- 51:01Speaker 2: better spot to go. Ship a Nation again, We're talking NHL.
- 51:05Speaker 2: Jason on the show Ship a Nation dot com. Join
- 51:08Speaker 2: the Nation right here. Check out all of our packages again.
- 51:11Speaker 2: All of them do include Discord except weekly Shiptomizer upgrades
- 51:16Speaker 2: as well. Would love to see it in there. Great
- 51:19Speaker 2: stuff is always Big Marley again three eight m Eastern
- 51:22Speaker 2: on Saturday. Set your alarm, do your lineups on Friday.
- 51:25Speaker 2: If you're not gonna watch it, hopefully you wake up
- 51:27Speaker 2: with a little more cheese in your pocket. I will
- 51:30Speaker 2: be up watching it. I know plenty of you guys
- 51:33Speaker 2: will be as well. Stay safe out there, let's make
- 51:35Speaker 2: some money this weekend. Good stuff is always Big Marley
- 51:38Speaker 2: for Big Marley. I'm a title town. Peace, Be safe.
- 52:02Speaker 2: I've never still have the step, have never step anything
- 52:15Speaker 2: and never do