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NFL Divisional Round Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome, say the Favorites. We are live in the Action
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Network studio. We are presented by BET three sixty five
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: and we are part of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: our NFL Playoff Divisional Round Tuesday NFL episode. I am Schadmilman,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We did have
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: an amazing time Simon at our live event at The
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Hoboken, New Jersey on Sunday.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: What a thrill to spend Sunday sweating and winning bets
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: with hundreds of our closest friends. And I will emphasize
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: winning bets. We went four and zero with our Big
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Balls bet of the week, which was Green Bay plus
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, Foxhol Houston plus two and a half.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Simon says Rams plus three and a half an exec
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: decision which came through for us last night. The bills
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as Big Favorites minus ten. You can always follow our
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: picks in the Action app for the Foxhol Simon says,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Exec Decision Big Balls. Those are all under the Favorites
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: podcast handle. On today's show, of course, we will get
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: to our Simon tech. We will get to our exec
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: decision on Thursday. We will finalize Big Balls, we will
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: finalize Foxhole, we will finalize moneyline per Parlay. Now let's
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: bring in my co host, might Beff, my companion, my
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: compadre professional better Simon under Hello Son.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Like.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Look, we had a great weekend. The whole freaking weekend.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Everyone in Action Network to Get was together and it
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: just felt like everybody was cash and tickets. Even the
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Action Island crew. They crushed their Same Game Parlay. Nick
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Giffen was crushing his live bets from Bet What Happens Live.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: It was a glorious weekend. Now we have to retrench.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: We have to think about whereas what teams are overvalued
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: based on what they did this weekend, what teams are
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: undervalued based on what they did this weekend or did
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: not do? How do we manage the perception versus reality
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: versus what bookmakers are trying to trick us into doing.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: We already talked about how before we came on here,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: we talked about how there is one game in particular,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the books are trying to get us to make a bet.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Are we going to be strong? Are we going to
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: make the bet? Are we going to skip the bet?
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: We're going to bet the other side? As a reminder,
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  Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five.
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  Speaker 1: episode The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying it
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• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. I realize as
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: I'm talking I have to apologize for the frogginess in
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: my voice. I sound terrible, But you're not going to
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: get to hear today. But Matt Mitchell sounds so much worse.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: He's been very busy doing business things this past weekend.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to it. First came up Houston Baltimore.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is a nine point favorite at bet three sixty five.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: This line has steamed down a little bit, open to ten.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Now it's at nine. CJ. Shroud continues to defy all
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: of the expectations, the things you don't want to do
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: bet on a first year quarterback. I think we can
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: agree with this guy stapping a first year quarterback about
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: midway through the season. He is just that special first take,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: first instinct on this game.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: I think I talked about it with the crowd at
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: the show. It's like, if this is above seven, we
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: kind of are tied. Our hands are tied. We have
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: to take Houston. It's just too big of a number.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: And you know, we know Lamar struggled as a big
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: favorite chat, so you know the fact that we already
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: liked it, and then we have the trends to back
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: it up. Lamar since the last three years, he's one
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: and eight as a favorite seven or more. That's a
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: big deal, right, We have all all the time, like
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: we like to fade him. The lone win was a
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: bet me and you made. We took Houston week one,
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: and you look back now it kind of makes sense, right.
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: It's it's him making this first start, CJ. And it's
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: also the coach making this first start. It's a big deal.
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: Now they're like grizzly vets. They're they've been through it.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: They've already got their playoff win. So we know the
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: struggles for Lamar and the playoffs. We know this number
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: is too big. Let's not overthink it. We got to
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: just take the Houston plus nine. I mean it was
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: ten and now it's down to nine and a half,
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: down to nine. A couple books and now some books
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: are shown eight and a half. So if you're one
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: with the pros are betting, the pros are taking this,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: and the public will be all over the Ravens like
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: they're gonna parlay this. They'll tease it, we're gonna talk
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: another game like it's just a week where the favorites
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: do usually win, they usually do cover. So met Chat
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: aren't gonna go to blindly bet all these dogs. But instantly,
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: this is probably our favorite dog of the week.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the number is too big. Some more stats. Lamar
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: is a favorite of three and a half or more
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: in his career forty two percent against the spread. That's
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: a sample size of north of fifty games, so it's
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: not insignificant. One hundred and seventy fourth out of one
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: hundred and eighty one quarterbacks the past twenty years. In
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: terms of against the spread record, as a favorite of
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: three and a half or more, it gets worse seven
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: and a half or more. Forty two percent gets a
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: spread one in eight over the past three seasons. That
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: is the worst mark of thirty two qbs that we
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: have in our database. His only cover, like you said,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: was Week one. Here's my one concern. So CJ was
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: amazing at home, right, twenty five hundred passing years at home,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: seventeen touchdowns at home, sixty five percent completion rate at home,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I think nine yards per attempt at home. On the road,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of his passes completed, sixteen of his
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: sixteen hundred of his four thousand yards, six touchdowns. So
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: he is not the same quarterback on the road. It
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: could be a combination of a couple different things, one
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: different surfaces. Bobby Slovac is playing a different game. We
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: see j Shroud on the road, then he is at home.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So I do think there is something that makes me
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit more nervous about betting him on the
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: road as a big dog than when we were so
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: confident betting him at home as a dog.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and just going through his schedule while you're talking
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: about this and looking at his road record.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: So you already talked about their Week one.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: Loss to the Ravens, right, You only put up nine points,
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: the Ravens score twenty five. That's a bad loss if
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: you scroll through all the other games, though, every other
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: loss in the road is really close until you get
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: to the Jets game where they lost six six to thirty,
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: which I don't even know if you even played in
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: that one. I think he was banged up. But it's
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: just I get where you're coming from there. The splits
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: are different with him on the road. I just have
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: so much in faith in c J Y now, which
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: is probably might be getting me in trouble, yeah, but
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: it's honestly the Lamar factor as well.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: Though. Lamar in these big moments, he gets tight.
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: And we just saw a guy Dak which me and
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: you didn't want to back him because we kept talking
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: about his even though it was a small sample. We've
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: seen time again how mental football is and some guys
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: got it. Which I mean, say what you want about
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: how Houston won that game against the Browns. CJ missed
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: a couple of deep balls. Nothing changed right in that
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: first quarter. You missed one deep throw, right, I think
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: it might be Nico Conns. It was gonna be like
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: a walk in touchdown. Next play they went right back downfield.
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: It's like it's there's just so much veteran and just
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: savviness to CJ right now, where it's like I'm trying
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: not to treat him as a rookie, like going on
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: the road to Baltimore, anyone else, I'm right there with
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: you under ten anyone else. I would honestly take the
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: Ravens here. But the fact that Lamar struggled is a
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: big favorite. They're coming off rest against just a team
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: that keeps games close. Like again, going through this, he's
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: never really been blown out like he just he keeps
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: games close. He's just that competitive. So I just I
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: don't see how we don't take them and the money
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: line here, Like it's just the value is going to
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: be there. So like for my favorite dog of the week,
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: it's just it's just Houston. I knew this number was
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: going to be seven or above. I did not think
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: it was gonna be nine and a half ten, which
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: it was the pros of hit that chat.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: Now it keeps dropping.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: So I'm not making this, Simon says, because we've already
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: missed the ten. Yeah, but I do think this is
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: gonna end up being you know, either our big ball
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: is better whatever. Just once it dost settles, I do
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: think money will start coming on the Ravens. But right now,
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: looking at our app, it's it's all Houston money right now.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Isn't it interesting how you mentioned the mental components of it. Look,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: the stats bear this out. Lamar is not a guy
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: who when he has a chance to dominate against the
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: team where he's a huge favorite, where he is doing that.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Yet I don't think of Lamar and John Harbaugh as
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: two guys who get tight or make bad mental decisions
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: or can't handle the challenges of a big time game
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: or playing way above an inferior opponent. That's all I
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: think about. For Dak and Mike McCarthy. You know, like
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I just don't see it, Like that's what I mean, Like.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: We talked before he came on, like went to at
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: home in the playoffs. He's never won a game at
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: home in the playoffs. And yes, this is lined up
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: and get a first win. They should win this game.
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: But there's a lot to that, right, Like that's gonna
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: be in the back of his head. That's a real
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: pressure he's gonna feel. So this is obviously such a
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: huge game full of mare in his career. It's it's
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: set up right, Like their path is so set up
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: in that they have the one seed, they have all
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: the home advantage, like they're at home throughout the playoffs.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: But we've seen I mean this even this season, remember
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: that Colts game, Yeah at home where it's like there're
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: just little things they struggle with, even that game against
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: Pittlera against the Rams, Right, so there's just times where
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: they're not as untouchable as people perceive as usually one
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: seeds are very untouchable. Right last year we had the
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: Chiefs and the Eagles, both one seeds made a run.
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: I feel confident about the forty and iris will get
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: to later. I do not feel that same confidence in
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: this Ravens team, and I was hoping for a big
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: number to feed them on. I got my wish, like
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: if you were able to grab the ten, you're way
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: ahead of it. I still think nine and a half
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: great value. Even down to eight and a half, there's
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: obviously still amazing value there. I just don't see it
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: getting down below seven to you. So it's like, obviously
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: you guys are grabby in the half. But yeah, this
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: is hard for me.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: To have to make. Siven says.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to make just wait until Thursday, make our
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: big balls. But I do love this spot so much
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: for Houston.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: All right, next game on the board, Green Bay at
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, And this is the only game we could
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: discuss on Sunday night. It opened Green Bay as a
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: ten point underdog coming off of that demolishing of the Cowboys,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: and the line moved to nine and a half. I'll
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: say this right now, San Francisco executive decision, the choice
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Are you av your honor? STU executive decision.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I had the bills last week in minus ten, never
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: worried about it. I have so many thoughts and why
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is the right side here, but I'm not
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: sure you agree with me. No.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: What's funny though, if this was Aaron Rodgers, I would
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: be which sounds stupid, but if you go through our history,
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: me and Chad always faded Aaron Rodgers in this spot,
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: even if they're at home against the forty nine ers team,
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: we would always just take the forty nine Ers against Rogers.
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: So yeah, looking at this, Chad, I get where're coming from.
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: This's is hard for me, Like I WOA say all
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: the time, it's just hard for me to back favorites,
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: But you're probably right this, Probably there is the right
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: spot to back is forty nine Ers team. Not only
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: do you have the experience, it felt like the green
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: Bay win last week was more about Dallas than it
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: was about green Bay. Even though Jordan Love did make
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: the throws and LaForce schemed it up incredibly and their
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: defense did play so well, It's like, man, that was
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: a complete total meltdown from the whole Dallas team, Like
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: even their defense looked like they never played before. So
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: you're exactly right, Like if you're trying to like I
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: wanted to be on green Bay. Chad's right, though, if
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: you're looking at what this number should be and where
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: the value is, it is too low.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: This probably should be closer to twelve twelve and a half.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: You're getting two free points here just because they beat
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: quote unquote America's team in Dallas last week. So it's pain.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: It's paining me to do. But with me, I do
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: agree with you. I just think the number is too low.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Where I really wish this was what it should be,
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: which is closer at twelve and a half.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Thirteen. Would have loved to take Green Bay at that number.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: But the fact that you can still get it a
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: couple of books that I'm looking, you can still get
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: the nine and a half. I don't hate it. And
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: we talk all the time. This is this is gonna
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: be the game that people are gonna tease together, like
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: this is the move. People are gonna take the one seeds,
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: They're gonna throw them together. And I just I mean,
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: the forty nine ers are what down a plus one
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: seventy five to win.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: The Super Bowl. They're the best team in football.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: Like the fans, I mean, we met a couple of
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: our show on Sunday, Like I said, you guys should
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: have your chest puffed out, like you're by far the best.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: Team, you have the best path.
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: Now you're getting to play the seventh seed at home again,
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Dallas made history. We never saw a seventh seed beat
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: a two seed before green Bay. They clearly should not
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: be a seventh seed. Right, they're better, Like they're better
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: than Eagles, like, no doubt if they would have played
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: the Eagles, I would take green Bay.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: If the seasons started in November instead of September and
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: went to February, the Eagles might not have made the
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: playoffs and the Packers might have been a two seed.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Like that's how well they've been playing. So you think so,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: you think so. Look, we loved the Packers on Sunday night, right,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: we immediately were smashing the Packers at plus seven and
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: a half two Sundays ago, where like, this number doesn't
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: make any sense. How is this number at seven and
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: a half. So we played it, and it played out
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: exactly as we thought it would be. McCarthy, terrible coach
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: and terrible play caller who we knew talk about getting tight.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: We knew he would get tight in that game. The
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: defense plays too much man and it was overrated as
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: a pass rush. So you had the polar ends where
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: in the high profile spots everyone thinks they're amazing, but
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: they're kind of not that amazing, and their numbers were middling.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: They just made really high profile plays that looked fancy.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, the Niners have a better overall offense against a
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: still suspect defense. Let me give you some games that
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: during this streak since November, when Green Bay started to
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: get hot, Jordan Love all of a sudden found his groove. Right,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: that's what everyone's talking about, thinking they're so good. They
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: lost to the Steelers, they lost to the Giants. They
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: beat the Chiefs, but don't forget they beat the Chiefs
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: on a no call pass interference that could have forced
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: them to lose the game. They barely beat the Chargers.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: They gave up thirty three points to the Panthers. The
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Panthers didn't score thirty three points in the second half
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: of the year combined, but they gave up thirty three
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: thirty points to the Panthers. So if this were a
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: regular season game, we would be fading this Packers team.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Because even Sean Kerner, he did projections for every team
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: had into the playoffs and every game, every matchup heading
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs, the projection for this game was green
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Bay plus eleven and a half. And I was talking
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: to Stucky yesterday. We were in the office and we're
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: all hanging out this weekend, and we were like, green Bay,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: if not for the way they beat up on Dallas,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: they'd be a twelve thirteen point underdog in this game.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Let me give you some more stats. Okay, even though
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: I know, I feel like I finally convinced you to
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: come to my side and that we're gonna be betting
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: buddies on this San Francisco was ranked higher than Green
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Bay in each of the following categories. Yards per game,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, points scored
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: per game, third down percentage, yards allowed per game, rushing
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per game, points allowed per game, third down
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: percentage against. They have been a dominant team all season long.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: There's no reason not to be betting the forty nine
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: ers as a fait it. Don't be fooled.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just you know, I just say taking big favorites.
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: But I mean, you nailed all with all the stats
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: there too. And it's also fort nitars at home. We
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: talk all the time we like back in Shane and
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: at Home as a favorite. It's been good to especially
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: the last couple of years. So yeah, the more we
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: talk about the more I feel like it is a
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: good bet. And it also feels like you should go
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: grab that nine and a half, like it's out there.
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: Don't be stuckish to one book. People, We tell you
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: all the time you have to shop around. So I'm
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: looking at two of the more public books. They're still
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: hanging it and it's only minus one fifteen and one
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: book minus one eighteenth. The other book the Juice, So
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: I would go grab that before it moves to ten.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Evan just put this note into the script. The last
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: nine quarterbacks against the Panthers sixteen touchdowns for interceptions. Don't
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: forget Dak lit up that defense. I know they were
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: passing NonStop at the end of the game, but they
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: completely lit up that defense.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and we're also getting a four Niners defense at
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: home that you know, I expect them to be able
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: to scheme up something to stop the Jordan love just
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: because I talked about it before. Lafleur had struggled against
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: his forty nunders team in the past. Like you can
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: go back and look at his days with Aaron Rodgers.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: There's a couple of time there too. Rogers got home
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: at Lambeau favorite against his forty Nineers defense has struggled,
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: So that's just not a laflort thing, right, I mean,
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: we saw Jordan Love is kind of like a carbon
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: copy of Rogers throwing off bounds, throwing the side and passes.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: It's kind of the same offense. Nothing's really changed.
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: So the e fact of that in the past they've struggled.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: We'll see if Jordan Love could take that enormous step.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: But I feel like he's already done it in his
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: first season, right, like that game with Dallas, that was it. Right,
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: They're gonna be feeling so good this week we expect
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: to let down. I mean, they're a young team, like
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: Green Bay's a young team, so Chad, right, don't let
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: the ten scarry off. I would grab it now though,
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: because there are still nine and a half's out there.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Look, it feels like the Packers can be happy with
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: making it to the second round of the playoffs, and
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be like, oh my god, this is so exciting.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: We have so much to build in. The Niners are
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: not happy with anything less than winning the Super Bowl.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: So there's just different expectations in this game. In fact,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I know what the final score is.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Do you want to know what's gonna be?
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: Oh God, Chad, go ahead, forty.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Two to fourteen. It just this, This has all the
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: makings telling you right now.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: So Chad likes the over. If you're keeping track at home,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: Chad likes the over.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I do I do? All right? A quick word from
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  Speaker 1: number one meal kit. Okay, the game we're gonna be
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: talking about Kansas City APT Buffalo. The line right now
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: is two and a half. It's been all over the place.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: It was at three for about thirty seconds, two and
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: a half, got down to two. Now it's back up
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: to two and a half. It's trending back towards three,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: which means.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: I'm making the bills. My Simon says.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Chad says, when Simon says, do it, we do.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: What Simon says as the least confident as I can sound.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: But I have to do it.
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm doing it, And like even now,
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: I just had a buddy text me and he's just
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: like another pro and he's just like, do not, do
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: not take the Bills.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: I have to do it. He just knew he knew
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: me too well.
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: But it's just I just love this Bills team and
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: I love this spot, and like the fear for me
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: right now is what injuries happened?
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Right because they're playing again. It's a joke the NFL.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: They have him outside playing the game on concrete like
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: that that field was concrete.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: Anytimes someone got tackled, they.
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: Would get up and they look like they're in such
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: ping and someone's like, why they why did they all
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: look I have to get tackled.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: It's like they're literally being tackled the concrete.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: It was crazy. So obviously I get the pushback on
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: the Bills. But before we went on chat, I told
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: you my my big thing is I don't I don't
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: think people are understanding this Chiefs team just isn't right right.
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: People are getting sucked back in on this Chiefs team
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: and I'm not like they scored two touchdowns and then
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: struggled in the red zone against the Miami team Miami
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: gifted them that whole game, right, Like they could not
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: do a single thing on offense. They had a ton
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: of injuries to their defense, so the Chiefs could move
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: the ball anyway they wanted up and down the field.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: And people are back in.
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: Everyone's like, well, it's the playoffs, right, Mahomes is back,
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: this is the team, this is them back in the playoffs,
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: and it's just I can't get there. So I think
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: the public will be on this side. And I know
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: a couple of pros are where it's like I can
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: see it being the same thing with the Rams that
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: we're gonna look in the app and it's gonna be
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: a lot of money skewed.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Towards the bills.
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: If they make this plus three, that will change, like
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: so much money will come in on the Chiefs team
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: a plus three because I when we know all the stats,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: Mahomes is a dog. I think I haven't talked about it.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: He's like eight and one in his last nine as
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: an underdog. Yeah, it's amazing.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: You remember that because I needed all the stats written down.
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: So now, because that one sticks with me where it's
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: like me and you love Betty, Mahomes is a dog,
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: and it paints for it pains me not to do
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: it here, but it's this number should be three and
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: a half four Like maybe because of the Bills injuries
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: to defense, this number would start making more sense to me,
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: where it's like, okay, this should be under a three
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: two and a half. But me and you have been
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: riding this Bills team now for months and we keep
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: talking about they've been in these playoff games four months.
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: They've made huge changes to their offense, which obviously benefit them,
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: and bringing in Rusull Douglass totally changed the identity that
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: the second half, where like their secondary was easy to
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: be passed on, he came in there start getting turnovers
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: just picks. He was able to add to their run
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: stopping game too, like he is incredible attack. Yes, so
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: all these little things that Bills did really changed our
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: perception number. The Chiefs have done.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: None of that.
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, go through just what they've done, even in December, right,
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: we always tak you never fade Mahomes in November December.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: This year we are fade him all November all December.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: And I think people are overacting too much of this
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: one game. Go watch that tape. People, all those field goals,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: like they just they're not the same team in the
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: red zone. There's no imagination there in the red zone.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: Like that first drive was vintage Mahomes and the Chiefs. Right,
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: they drove right down the field. He was making the
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: perfect passes. I think Rice was wide open, right. It
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: was like an underneath play where the linebackers dropped back.
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: There was no one to the right. He just walked
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: right in. That was vintage. The rest of the game
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: it was not like that, like there's just it's just
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: not there. Even the drops too, kept showing up right,
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: even Kelsey having multiple drops. It's like, this is just
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: not the same team. So if if the Bills, if
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: this game had been closer and they had struggled, and
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: it was just like, okay, this this Josh Allen can't
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: stop turning the bull ever, stop can't stop making stupid plays.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: I think he played really smart in that Pittsburgh game.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: He pulled it down Randy when he need to, he
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: hand They handed it off. And like the run blocking
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: scheme as well has looked so much better. It's just
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: it's just all there. And then new factor as well.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: Mahomes has never played a road playoff game. So this
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: is a big deal, right, He's going to Buffalo where
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: we you talk all the time. That's a hard place
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: to play. Like, tell people to be quiet while he
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: does his snap count. It's gonna be loud and rowdy.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: So we're getting under two and a half, Come on,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: join me take this number. I know it's scary going
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: against my homes, but at three and a half, homes
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: makes sense.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: At two and a half, it feels like the Bills
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: is to play here.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: So let me let me throw some water.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Do it.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: On your very hot take, you mentioned Patrick Mahomes eight
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: one and one. Yeah, in those ten career games, including
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: the postseason in which he has been an underdog eight
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: one and one, he's six and three straight up, seven
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: and one, seven to one and one against the spread.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: In those nine regular season games one to oh straight
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: up and against the spread as an underdog in the playoffs.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: That was last year's Super Bowl.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they used to be a good team, the Chiefs.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not discounting that his record is actually better away
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: from home thirty nine and eleven straight up on the
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: road thirty five and eleven at home. He's more profitable
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: against the spread as the Visitor going twenty eight to
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: twenty and two on the road in games twenty twenty
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: five and one at Arrowhead. And that makes sense, right,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: Like on the road the numbers are going to be
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit less inflated. That are always going to
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: be super high at Arrowhead. The market has never cut
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: up to the fact that they play a more conservative
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: game at Arrowhead. They score fewer points at Arrowhead. They
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: just assume at home. Patrick Mahomes got to tee off,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: so that makes sense. And look, I agree with you.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: We have loved the Bills all week. We have loved
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: the Bills all month. I felt like going to the playoffs,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: they might have been the best team in the AFC
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: for sure, maybe the best team in the NFL with
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: the way Joe Brady has changed that offense in Josh Allen,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: he had a lot of picks, but it's much more
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: running focus. And we've talked a lot about how teams
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: and their time of possession against the Bills has decreased.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: You mentioned Russell will Douglas didn't play, got to Steelers,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: was inactive knee injury. We don't know if he'll play
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: this weekend. They lost more linebackers and more dbs playing
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: on that turf last night. No, Stefan Diggs looked like
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: every time he went to the ground like something was breaking.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: When the Steelers on Monday, when they started to make
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: a game of it was when those players went out
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: and all of a sudden they had so many more
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: opportunities in the middle of the field. I know Travis
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Kelsey hasn't have a great year, but that is how
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: they can beat the Bills. That is their strength against
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: a Bill's weakness.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and just throw water on I love you and
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: I love all the statue gave those are with Tyreek
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: Hill and the ble on me like the OC that's
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: no longer there. And we just talked about their struggles
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: this season. But I mean, anyone can open up the
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: app and go through their games this year and it's
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: just the offense just has not been there, even when
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: you go down the home stretch here. You know, we
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: bet against them with the Bills. The Bills went to
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: since the Chiefs and they beat them twenty to seventeen in.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Their regular season.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know it's just like I can't overreact
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: to what the Chiefs just did last week, where I
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: get the pushback, and I get all these stats, and
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: I really did wanted to be on the Chiefs, but
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: it's just they're just not the same team. And I
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: think people still have to come to full terms with that.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: Just because they did win their division and they did
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: just blow out a team in the playoffs, it feels
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: like it's all the same, but it's not. And that's
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: like my biggest issue is, so Chad's right about the injuries,
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: Like it's terrifying the injuries that Bills have had to
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: their defense. But they're just they're that magical team and
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: like we keep talking about, like the fact that everyone's
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: out on them, everyone doubted them, that you could have
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: got them at fifty to one to win the Super
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: Bowl in December, that's just like why I love this team.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: Like that's the year the teams make runs and win
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: super Bowls when no one believes them, everyone counts them out,
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: and they make these crazy runs. And they're just on
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: a crazy run right now. So every counterpoint you've said
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: is so fair. I'm just trusting the number, the fact
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: that the number is under three three, three and a half.
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: I get the Chiefs love, but a two and a half,
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: it's just like that's such a big deal that number
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: is under it, especially when we know, like we're looking
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: at this guys, the fact that Buffalo went there and
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: won twenty to seventeen, and I know peoplere gonna push
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: back and be like, well that was the no call.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: I think the guy dropped a touchdown where they could
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: have beat the Bills. Where it's like you can say
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: that with any game, like there's always gonna be calls.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, we didn't talk about the Lions game yet,
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: but like there's always gonna be calls and non.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: Calls that it determined a lot of these games.
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: But just the way the Bills have played the fact
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: that this is such a revenge spot, right, Like Mahomes
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: and Josh Allen, you know they play cute and like
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: they're good friends. Allen has been sitting on that loss.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah to Mahomes from two three years ago
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: for this whole time, and like this it's poetic justice,
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: Like you win this game, you somehow go and beat
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: the Ravens and that's how you make the Super Bowl run.
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: Like it just feels like whenever you look at the
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: NFL history and how it all lines up with these
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: guys had the cock with these. I mean, Michael Jordan,
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: your favorite guy. He had to overtake the Drui Piston team.
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: He had to hit the gym, get jacked for three
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: years to get big and strong enough to overtake that team.
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: That's what it feels like here with the Bills, where
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: it's like the Chiefs had didn't that stop for for them.
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: It's the reason they never got to the super Bowl.
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: And this sold Josh Allen there and now it's finally
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: lined up. They got a bad Chiefs team at home,
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: first time Mahome has ever been on the road in
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: this kind of scenario. It just feels really lined up.
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: So I'm trying hard to convince people on this guy.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: No hart is to take them, but so what I'm
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: telling you take the two and a half, don't be
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: scared off by this numb or take the Bills here.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Last night, even Josh Allen said he was, and he
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: said this as a compliment. Aj Klein came off the
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: street to play great. Ajklin might be starting in the
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: middle for the Bills in this game, which means it's
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: going to be aj Klin trying to read Patrick Mahomes
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: like I want to be on the bill so bad.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: In this game, I do think Josh Allen looks amazing,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: and I think Patrick Mahomes. You know, you have mentioned
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: many times on this show this year that mahomes ve game.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: Just two weeks ago, three weeks ago.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: I do, Yes, I totally do. And you've mentioned many
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: times this year like they're broken Mahomes, this is not
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the right team, and then Mahomes has been really whiny
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: all season long. You've totally said that. And I think
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen looked amazing last night, and I thought like
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: he played within himself, right, you know how when you're
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: a great athlete and you you sort of think you're
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: a wild horse, right, you need to be broken a
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: little bit.
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: I didn't see that though, because he did struggle against Miami,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: Like he did not play great in.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: That Miami game. No, but last night, Yeah, that's what
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: I mean. I need to see him have a great game.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: He had a great game, made the right calls. He
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: felt like an adult, do you know what I mean?
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: And like you don't always see that you don't like
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen. You see him making boneheaded plays that it
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: kind of plays when you think looking like I'm the
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: best athlete. I can do anything, and like last night,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: he didn't try to do that. He tried to play
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: with control.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: He took what the defense gave m.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: So I can if if they can play with control,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: I can see it. I feel a little guilty cause
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: you decided to be my betting buddy on Green Bay
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: and I'm on the Niners, and I'm having a harder
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: time being your betting buddy.
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: I totally get it, Dudie. I want to bet my
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: homes as a dog too. I like betting dogs.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Great note from owning here are Chiefs from Evan. Chiefs
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: has scored ten total points in the first queter in
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the first quarter of the last five games versus the Bills,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: meaning if we like the Chiefs, we're gonna get a
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: better number live. Okay, So there you go, all right, Sam,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: And I know it's playoff time. Life is full of
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: distractions right now in your world, but that's still not
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: a good excuse for forgetting the fastest growing ticketing app
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: in the United States. Can you name it?
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love Game Time for
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they sponsored this show. Second, I actually
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last
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  Speaker 1: I am going to a Yukon basketball game using tickets
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: used on Game Time. I'm going to open the app
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: right now here from our studio, live in New York City.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: And what do I see? I see right now I
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: can get into, let's say, a New York Knicks basketball
• 33:15
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• 33:43
  Speaker 1: By the way, I should say, and you didn't give
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: me your projections. How you have these games power rated
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: for these games? But Kerner had the Bills Chiefs game
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: power Raider two. He had the Texans Ravens game power
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: rated at ten. So we're taking the Texans in there,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: which I agree with. But there's about a point of value.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: According to Kerner on the Ravens, I said that he
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: loved the Niners. In this spot, he has the Tampa
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Bay visiting Detroit Lions. That game is currently at six.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Kerner had projected at seven and a half. The line
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: opened at seven, got bet down to six and a half,
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: got bit down to six. My instinct here is Lions.
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually honestly have this at five. So it's
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: technically for me the value is on Tampa. But I
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: justtally don't really like Tampa on the spot. No, no,
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: And I think it's more honestly about golf. It just
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: played so bad last week. I know, people like again
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: media is the dumbest thing ever. But because they won
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: by one point, people were just blowing smoke up Golf's
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: ass and Detroit's ass and be like, look how well
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: they played against Stafford and holding them to all those
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: field goals.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: They scored three points to.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: The second half like against a Rams defense that the
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: guy had just torched the half before. So the fact
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: that he struggled with the adjustments made by the Rams
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: a little scary, like a little scary because now we
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: have Todd Boles coming in, which you know, I don't
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: like him, and it's just because he's a dinosaur, like
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: he runs a very dinosaur defense where it said more
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: about the Eagles and it did about Todd Bowles last
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: night where he didn't disguise anything. He literally would have
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: nine guys walk up to the line and either all
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: eight were blitzing or all nine were blitzing, or he
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: might drop two back into coverage. It was just very like,
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: we're not gonna change what we're doing here, and we're
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: gonna show you exactly what we're doing. Just because they're
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: kind of making fun of Hurts in that offense, they
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: were just like you guys that don't have a hot route,
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: you don't have the offense to combat us just blitzing it.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: And they didn't have the receivers.
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: Yes, and the flip side Detroit, I mean again, God,
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: I mean they're not mobile, but they do have We
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: talked about Laporte at one of the best tight ends ever.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: He'll be able to get him the ball. I'm not
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: saying Brown can always get open anytime he needs. Like
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: the Bucks are not as good as well perceiving. But
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: the fear is this Detroit team is not that good either,
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: Like they're also a team that can be passed on.
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: And we just seen Bakers looked so well, like even
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: against Eagles, like he was throwing to the exact spots
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: he should be throwing to, like guys were wide open,
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: and it's like, Okay, not only has he seen the
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: feed field, well, he's really trusting the offense, like he
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: was just in such a rhythm last night that that's
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: the hardest part for me. So I really, I really
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: do want to take Tampa, but I just can't get
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: there right now.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: So maybe I'll change by Thursday.
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: But yeah, golf to me is just he's bad, Like
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: he's just he's inconsistent where it's like he looked incredible
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: in that first half. In the second half, it looked
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: like a got to him, like he just could not
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: play well. So it's it's scaring me a little bit.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Well, look, we didn't love the can't the Eagles and
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Bucks game a week we kind of waffled on that
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: game ended up being a game we didn't want to play.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I didn't bet anything in the game other than Kadatt
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: and over because Stuckey, you know, called it in the
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: Sunday six pack his over twenty one, and he got
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: that in two catches. But Baker, I think for us
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: is a conundrum because he's been he's been great this year,
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: and so are we betting on Baker to continue to
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: be accurate, to continue to be careful with the ball.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: If so, this Lion secondary can be passed.
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: On, Right's back door is always gonna be open.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Here's some stats from Evan and uh the last four games.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Stafford and the Rams twenty five of thirty six, three
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: and sixty seven yards to touchdowns and no picks. Nick
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Mullins nearly four hundred yards, Justin Jefferson had nearly two
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: hundred yards receiving. By the way, Puka had one hundred
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: and eighty yards receiving. Dak twenty six of thirty eight
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: three hundred and forty five yards, Ceedee Lamb two hundred
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: and twenty seven yards receiving, and then Minnesota the week
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: before Mullens four hundred and eleven yards, Justin Jefferson one
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty one yards. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: one of those guys might have two hundred yards receiving
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: against this Lion's secondary.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: But you saw what they did a combat that is
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: again it's football. I know Lions fans are very sensitive,
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: but your guys team did play dirty, Like your defense
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: were taking an incredible amount of cheap shots hitting guys
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: low where it's like where also, are they supposed to
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: hit him? You're not supposed to take a guy's kneecap
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: out when he's going over the middle, Okay, like you
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: can hit him in the thigh or in the mid section.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: But it's just like they took on Campbell's identity, like
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: they know they they know their defense is terrible. So
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: what they did to the Rams, anytimes Puke caught it,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: even if the first guy hit him and he's going down,
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: the second guy would come in and clean him up, right,
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: because in football you can get away. That's a physical sport.
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: And that's what they did against the Rams. Why would
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: they not do the same against Tampa Here It's like
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: they're just gonna be hitting the hell out of them
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: so they know that they know they stink.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: And I'm in total greense.
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: That's why I don't want to take the six where
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: it's like I can't believe, Like Chad was talking bet
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: before it came on this had gone up to seven
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: at one point, so open to five and a half.
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: All the money came and all the teasers, all the
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: bets came in on Detroit. This guy driven up to seven,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: the pros have coming back. Now it's down to six
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: at most books. It's just like, yeah, seven's too big
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: because they're always being able to get back door like
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: that numbers too big.
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: Six feels right.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: Like I said, I do have value slanted towards this
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: Tampa team, but it's just hard for me to get
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: there where it's like, you know, I look at what
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: Chad just talk about this Lion's team, and it's just
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: like they can't protect leads.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: And even then it's like we just.
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: Saw last week that offense got so tight in the
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: second half, Like I can't get over the effectively put
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: three points up at home. It's pretty insane. So yeah,
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: I just like, again, me and Chad, we don't need
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: a force bets who really have four games up. But
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: it's like, you know, we're probably gonna have to make
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: a pick on us, either a side or a total
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: in this game as we're city right now. It's like
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: I want to take Tampa, but I'm not gonna rush you.
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: The seven is already gone. If you can get the seven, great.
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: The book that sponsors our show doesn't have a seven,
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: it's a six. There's no point in giving it out
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: right now.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: I feel like as we're talking, we're going to convince
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: ourselves to be on the box. I said, Lions instinctive.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: Now it's up to six and a half.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: And now that I'm watching, I'm reading all this, by
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: the way, the most Baker stat ever. We love Baker.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: We've talked about Baker Moxie all season long. Yeah, twenty
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: seven to twenty one against the spread as a dog
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: in his career, four in a row as a dog,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: including seven and one against spread the last eight.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: So he's been good to us.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: He's been great.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: And like, the more you think about this matchup, the
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Lions are gonna win, but Baker could keep this in
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: the game. So it's very possible, I hate to say it,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: like this is gonna be Foxhole or big Balls. Like
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: we know at this point, we know that the Niners
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: are exec decision, we know that the Bills are, Simon says,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: so it could be Texans are big Balls and Bucks
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: or Foxhole or vice versa. I do think we need
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit of some sharp calls to help us
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: out as we get to Thursday show. Before we can
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: make that call, here's a question from the chat. As
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: soon as I remind everybody to catch every episode of
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: The Favorites live on YouTube, and if you were watching
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: like overall, subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Okay,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: here's from the chat. If you have a long shot
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: future on Houston Super Bowl, what's a good way to
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: head it right now?
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it all depends for someone like me that bet
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: that Houston one that I really thought was a joke,
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna let her ride, just because I didn't
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: put that much into it, Like I only have a
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: couple of thousand where that Rams wonder was a killer,
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: Like I had a lot invested into it to win
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: a lot, and like that would have been great to
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: take a position on it.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: But you can't where this Houston one.
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: You know, if you listen to us, you either got
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: one hundred to one or a hundred and fifty to
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: one their Super Bowl odds. For me personally, like I'm
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna let it ride, just because I already
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: talked about like I'm gonna take Houston's money line. Now
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: I don't need to. I can just let that bet ride.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: If I think Houston's actually gonna win, I'll let it ride.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: If you want to do play it smart and you
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: want to hedge, just bet. Yeah, there's a bunch of
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: different things you can do. Like you can play the
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: Ravens money line right and get a nice chunk out
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: of that, cause again you have if you bet one unit,
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: you have one hundred units to play with here, So
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: you can't take a position on their money line and
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: really keep it simple. Or you can do what I did
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: last week, where like I had Pittsburgh's future, I just
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: took the Bills money line. I payed it with a
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: team I felt for sure was gonna win, which was
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs. That was a no sweat and that was
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: a big winner. So that's what you can do. If
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: you're trying to eat away at the juice and take
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: a little risk your opponents, you can put these these
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: ones together. I mean I already talked about it like
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: I can't see a word while the forty nine ers lose.
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: So if you do want to hedge it. Why not
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: do the chalkiest thing ever and just put the forty
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: nine ers with the Ravens money line. But I just
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: I'm scared to tell you people to do it because
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: I just I like Houston in the spot. I know
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: I might look like an idiot come Sunday, but it's
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: like we talked about, they're a live dog. Lamar's never
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: won a home playoff game. That's a real pressure. These
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: guys feel with that real pressure. So yeah, it would
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: be shocking. But me personally, because I mean him taking
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: Houston's money on, I'm just gonna let it ride. Like
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: if you if you're trying to hedge out, I just
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: gave you a couple of different things you can do
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: with it. But me personally, it was such a great bet.
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: It's such a lucky bet. Just let it ride. Like
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: Evan already talked about teams that have those kind of odds,
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: they usually don't make it this far.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: The craziest run we've had was the Bengals at one
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one. The year after Joe Burrow
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: had a surgery on his knee at the acl fixed
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: made a run to the Super Bowl. You just don't
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: see these gooes kind of runs. So the fact that
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: we've had two of them now last you know, three seasons,
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: it's like definitely something to keep betting. Like you just
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: clearly these things keep happening. The books are ketchup these
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: ne qbs coming into the league. CJ's one of them. So, yeah,
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: great question. You can do the Chalky money line thing.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: But if you want, you're gonna come sweat it out
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: and ride it with me. I'm gonna ride out of
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: Houston one hundred and to one.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way, for what it's worth, Evan, who
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: was brilliant at hedging math, basically said the same thing.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Simon just said, this isn't the week to hedge, it's
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: next week. At this point, the bet is the bet
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: and you're riding with it.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: And it's a great bet.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: If Houston goes next week, then you got a shot
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: next week. As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented
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