Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Alright for Fighting | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/9/26

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Saturday BEST BETS | Alright for Fighting | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/9/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chase the black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something on somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Nine. Hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: hold up and me.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: And stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: back with you with Toadstool Sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: It is Saturday, May ninth, two, two and one. On
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: the show yesterday we sprayed the board.
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: It was a mixed bag.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: We did get the win with the under in the
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: first five Anaheim in Toronto.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: The full game went way under. It was a two
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: nothing final.
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: I think it was one nothing going to It might
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: have been two nothing already at the end of the fifth,
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: but we still got that under. Four Minnesota Cleveland was
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: a push and then that game did go over.
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: Full game well, we had the.
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: First five under, but I was thinking, oh man, if
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: this game goes under. It almost looked like it was
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: about to go under full game. That's the situation you
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: don't want. But at least it was a push and
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: not a loss. But then the full game did go over,
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: so I'm like, okay, I feel smarter about that. The
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: final I think landed ten, but we pushed in the
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: first five. I think it was a four to nothing
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: game going into the fifth.
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: Seattle and the White Sox was just out of control
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: right away. That game went way over the total, but
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: it was not what it looked like.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, we had it wrong.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: But you look at the just look at the box
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: score of that game, dude. The teams combined for twenty
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: runs on twenty two hits. You rarely see that, Like
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: every single base runner is gonna score in the game.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: Is that really what you're gonna tell me?
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: Like it got to a point where the teams had
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: already scored ten runs and they'd combined for like seven
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: hits or something like that, Like you never see that
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: scoring more and the amount of hits everybody that reached
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: base scored in that game, it was ridiculous. We got
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: an easy win with the Montreal Canadians. My grandfather's team,
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: So we did get that right.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: That was easy.
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: Statistically, the game probably wasn't exactly what it looked like,
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: but it was a blowout win for Montreal, So nice
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: armchair winner there. And then I'm pissed about the Minnesota
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: Tea wolves. Man, they absolutely could have covered that number.
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: They were hanging around in that game the whole way,
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: and then if you look at the box score, they
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: should have. They could have won the game outright. If
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: you look at the box score, they had like twelve
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: more field goal attempts.
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: Then the Spurs did.
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: Like statistically, there's no way they should have lost that
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: game by any sort of margin. I think they lost
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: it by seven, maybe eight. I'm not happy about that
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: at all. Yeah, statistically it looked like a Minnesota cover.
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: You don't have that many more field goal attempts than
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: your opponent and wind up losing the game by a
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: margin like that. It just doesn't usually happen. So I
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: don't think that one was the wrong call. I think
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: that one was a correct handicap and just a bad loss.
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: So we have not done very well in the NBA playoffs,
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: and I'm pissed about it because I usually kill the
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: NBA playoffs Last year was really good. This year, I
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: think we're one or two games below five hundred, which
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: is not good. We can still try to turn it around,
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: but we're gonna be probably close to five hundred throughout
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: the playoffs.
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: I am gonna give out a playoff bet as well. Today.
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna have three baseball plays. We're gonna jump into
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: the w NBA. I'm gonna give out one play there,
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give out a hockey play, and I'm gonna
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: give out an NBA play today.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: Six plays.
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: Let's not lose too much money here, Charles, what's up, Sparrow?
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: What's up? All right?
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna try to do this, man. I want to
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: find a way to do this faster.
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: We have games that's starting in the later ish afternoon.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: In baseball, Anaheim at Toronto is the first game. Toronto
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: won last night two to nine.
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: Thing.
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: We got the first five undercorrect in that game. Starting
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: pitching was good. Bullpens are actually good, which is strange
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: because I don't think either of these bullpens is that good,
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: especially not Anaheim. Anaheim used four relief pitchers that looks
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: like Toronto used two, although sometimes they bring in guys
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: that are just not listed as being bullpen arms as well.
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: But this at least shows you, like how many bullpen
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: arms are gonna be available. It's not a horrible thing
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: here for either team, but Toronto has had the better bullpen.
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: They're thirteenth right now, I arrange this by Whip. Anaheim
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: is bad, twenty seventh, one of the worst eras as well.
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: Hitting wise, Anaheim is better than Toronto.
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: They're fourteenth.
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: Toronto is twenty fifth, although I still kind of expect
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: Toronto to get better in that department. Jack Kohanowitz is
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: gonna pitch for Anaheim today.
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: He's actually been a lot better. He seems to be improving.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: After he was he looked like he was gonna be
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: out of baseball, so he has turned it around. Uh
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: three point zero five ERA, one point two to one Whip.
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: He's been not so good on the road though, four
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: point one eight. Roady ra pitched pretty well in his
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: last outing, but it was against the Mets, very bad offense,
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: and he did walk three guys. So I'm still not
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: ready to, you know, fully jump on board this train
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: here with Kohanowitz. But he's allowed three or fewer earned runs,
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: and all of his outings except his first one. He
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: does not strike guys out thirty strikeouts and forty one
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: in the third innings only twenty nine hits a lot,
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: but he still has walk issues. Twenty one walks is
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: not good, so that is a concern. Against Toronto. He
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: does not have good numbers and forty eight bats two
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: to two strikeout walk ratio three point fifty average allowed
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: eight oh six ops. I'm not gonna really trust Kohanowitz,
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: although you do have to admit that he is pitching
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: better this year, better than what those numbers against Toronto
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: make it look like when he was pitching. Those numbers
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: are from like his past when he wasn't pitching as well,
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: because I don't believe he faced Toronto this year, although
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: I could be wrong.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: No, he did, my mistake.
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: He actually he held Toronto to one run in five
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: to two thirds innings on April twenty first, So yeah,
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know how much weight I would
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: put into his bad matchup numbers here, because he did
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: actually pitch okay in that game except for two walks
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: in one strikeout, not being a good ratio there. But
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: he's also gonna have to go up against trey Ya Savage,
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: who is the better pitcher here. Point nine to six ERA,
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: one point two to nine whip is not very good,
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: but he's only made two starts so far this year.
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: He does have his zero home yra right now, but
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: that was one start against the Red Sox.
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: He was not as good in his last start.
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: He went to Minnesota, walked three guys, only lasted four innings.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: He's a good pitcher though he's a talented young pitcher.
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: He's still only twenty two years old, and he had
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: some really good starts last year, although he did have
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: some pretty bad ones as well. He's a bit of
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: a mixed bag. Anaheim has had two hitters who have
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: faced him. They're one for four lifetime with a single
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: from Adam Fraser.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: They have one strikeout, no walks against him.
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: I think the edge does go to your Savage here,
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: but it's a tough game to figure out.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: Man. The money is indicating towards Anaheim Toronto.
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: Sixty eight percent of tickets, fifty eight percent of the cash.
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: Toronto's very heavily favored, though around the minus one eighty range.
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: Like does a young pitcher like you Savage like, should
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: he be that much of a favorite here?
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: I don't know about that.
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, Toronto does have the better bullpen, they haven't
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: had the better hitting.
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to tell you. I mean, I
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: think the.
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: Price is probably a little bit too high there. There
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: is some money coming in towards the under total at
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: eight and a half. I mean, I don't necessarily disagree
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: with that. Both of these pictures are definitely capable of
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: putting together a good performance here. I would worry about
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: the bullpens again, though, I might think first five inning
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: under again. Maybe I don't know, man, I mean, that's
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: not a game that I want anything to do with.
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: Dirty sock. What's up.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: Strickland? Is he fighting tonight? I don't know what's going
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: on in the UFC. I would not bet on Strickland though,
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: as and Baltimore. Baltimore lost the game yesterday four to three.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: They were returning home from a road trip. So I
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: talk about this. We have a few teams in a
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: spot like this today. When a team returns on from
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: a road trip, a lot of times they're distracted. They
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: have to get back to home life. Bad things can happen.
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: And then if they play badly in that game, A
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: lot of times they bounce back in the next game,
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: so Baltimore could potentially be in that spot, in a
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: positive spot.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: But then you start digging into this.
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: The pitching matchup does not look very good for Baltimore,
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: so I'm not gonna be doing that. Baltimore didn't use
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: any relief pitchers. They actually did use one guy out
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen yesterday, but he was somebody who's been
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: in their starting rotation. I think it was that young
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: guy they had start the other day, Gibson I think
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: is his name, whatever, I think he came out of
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: the bullpen yesterday. So their bullpen is rested, so you
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: can give them that A's used a lot of bullpen
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: arms yesterday. They used five, and they do not have
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: a good bullpen, so Baltimore does have a bullpen advantage here,
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: even though their bullpen's not good. They ranked eighteenth. The
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: A's are twenty sixth, so we're looking at some not
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: very good bullpens there. Hitting wise, the A's are seventh.
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: I arranged this by ops Orioles are seventeenth. Both teams
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: do have the ability to hit. Aaron Savallee is pitching
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: for the A's. I actually think he has the upper
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: hand here. He does have a good ERA two point
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: nine to five. His whip is not that good one
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: point three four, so his ERA should be higher than this.
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: But he's been a decent pitcher the last couple of years.
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: Really throughout his career he's kind of been. I mean,
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: he's a journeyman pitcher, but he stays in the league
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: for a real and he's better on the road, which
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: makes sense because pitchers can't really pitch well.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: In this as stadium.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: Savalle is a two point five to seven ROADIRA right now,
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: which is good. He's coming off two pretty good outings
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: in a row against Kansas City and Cleveland, not really
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: good offenses though. He's faced a lot of weak offenses,
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: but he did have a decent start against the Yankees
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: and actually won against Atlanta as well in his first
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: two starts. Since then, he hasn't really faced any offenses
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: that are very good though, although Baltimore was kind of.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: A mediocre one.
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: Savally's got twenty seven strikeouts, ten walks, doesn't strike a
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: lot of guys out, hasn't put a ton of guys
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: on base thirty nine hits in thirty six to two
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: thirds innings. It's too many hits, but it's not that bad.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: I don't like that.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: He's not really a huge strikeout guy, but he does,
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: you know, kind of go under the radar because of that.
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: And he's certainly a capable pitcher. And he has good
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: numbers against Baltimore and forty two at bats fifteen to three,
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio one ninety batting average allowed five to
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: forty seven and ops.
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: Those are good numbers.
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: And whenever I look at this, we're looking at the
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: active roster on the opposing team. So this is like
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: because some guys will tell you, oh, I don't buy
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: into like this starting pitcher does bad against this team
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: or does well against this team. Yeah, I mean that
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: doesn't matter as much because teams, you know, have turnover
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: and they have different players every year.
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: But that's why you look at this.
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: ESPN gives you the batter versus pitcher stats against those
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: specific hitters. That's a better indicator because then you're focusing
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: on the actual matchups that are gonna be happening, you
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: know what I mean. At baseball, I think it is
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: kind of this discrete sport where I think those matchup
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: numbers do matter. H So, yeah, that's what I have
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: to say about that. Savali does have good matchup numbers.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: Shane Bosse is pitching for Baltimore. He hasn't been that good.
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: Four point nine to nine ERA, one point.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: Five to four whip is pretty bad.
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit better at home four point
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: five RA pretty bad start last time out against the Yankees,
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: especially five walks.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: In five to two thirds innings in that game. That
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: was not good.
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: He got knocked around a bit in that game overall,
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean, his strikeout rate has gone down
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: a bit from what it was last year, thirty three
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: strikeouts and thirty nine to two thirds innings.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: And on top of that, he's allowed sixteen.
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: Walks, which is really bad, and forty five hits as well.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: He's putting way too many guys on base, dude, although
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: he hasn't really allowed as many runs as you would think.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: But I don't know.
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: He's been not great and consistently not great. His numbers
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: against the A's are not too bad though, in fifty
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: seven at bats eighteen strikeouts, three walks to twenty eight
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: batting average allowed seven O five ops Longoliers hits him
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: pretty well four for ten with two doubles in a
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: home run. A's don't really have anybody else that does
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: that amount of damage to him. Still, I mean, I
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: don't know. I think I lean slightly A's here. Baltimore's
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: about a minus one twenty something favorite here. Looks like
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: A's are getting the money sixty eight percent of tickets
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: ninety percent of the cash on them. I think Savale
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: might have the matchup edge here and might be the
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: preferable of the two pitchers they're getting him as an underdog.
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: I would probably do it first five though, because as
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: I showed you, I think Baltimore does have a pretty
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: big bullpen edge here. So it's one of those games
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: where I think the starting pitching is in opposition to
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: the bullpen advantage. So I don't want to do anything
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: with the game though. Next game up will be a
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: play for me. If Fox sports one Houston at Cincinnati,
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: you might be able to figure out what this is
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: because Cincinnati is in one of those spots where they
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: return home from a road trip. They lost every game
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: on the road trip. Mean, while yes, I think Cincinnati
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: is not as good as their record looks. I think
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: we now have reached a point where the stock is
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: very low on Cincinnati.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: After it was too high.
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: I think it's completely swung in the other direction now
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: that they've lost eight games in a row or whatever
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: this is, and they're in one of those spots where
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: they return home from a road trip yesterday and they
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: got a absolutely annihilated ten to nothing.
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: So I think they're gonna be in bounced back mode.
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: Dude, that is an embarrassing home loss, and we're talking
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: about they're facally Houston here. Dude, Cincinnati is going to
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: score more runs this time. You would have to think
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: Houston's pitching is bad. I know Cincinnati's is not good either.
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: I'm not saying otherwise, but I think Cincinnati is certainly
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: capable of winning this game, especially when you look at
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: what the pitching matchup is. Cincinnati US three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: Their bullpen is not good though Houston used two. But
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: Houston has the worst bullpen in baseball, both in RA
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: and in WHIP. Houston really really bad. Their ranked thirtieth.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: The Reds are ranked twenty ninth. Bullpen though, but their
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: era is almost well, it's like a run and a
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: half better than Houston's is, So Cincinnati still does have
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen.
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: Hitting wise, Houston is the way better team.
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: I'm not denying that, but we're going with the better
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: pitching to limit Houston hitting here. Houston's ranked fifth right
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: now in offense. Cincinnati not good at twenty third. But
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: this is about the spot and the starting pitching matchup.
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: Spencer Arraghetti is pitching for Houston. His numbers look good,
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: one point nine to six ERA, he's four and oh
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: his hair looks.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: Good, you know. Yeah, I'm not gonna deny any of that,
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: but he's Yeah. People like this guy because of the
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: way that he looks and because he throws hard.
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: He gets a lot of strikeouts, but I think that's
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: gonna overrate him in this game. Man, He's got a
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: one point three whip, which is not really that good.
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: He's not quite as good on the road two point
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: seven ERA, so you can at least get to him
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: a little more on the road. And yes, I know
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: he hasn't allowed more of the two hour runs in
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: any of his starts so far, since Houston's won all
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: four of them, I get that, But the only one
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: that was against a good offense was the Yankees, and
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: yes he did stifle the Yankees. But you have to
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: worry about these walk numbers, dude. The Yankees start was
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: the only start where he walked fewer than four. You
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: cannot walk four guys in every outing and keep getting
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: away with it, man, I'm sorry.
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: Twenty three nigs pitch for him.
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: Sixteen hits aloud, that's good, twenty five strikeouts, that's good,
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: but he is wild. Fourteen walks, that's not good. And
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati most of their hitters have actually seen him, or
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: at least six of them have. Bledet actually dominates him
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: six for ten with three doubles, but overall they have
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: a nine for eighteen clip against him, five doubles against him,
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: three strikeouts, two walks. It's a five hundred average thirteen
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: to twenty eight ops. I'm not convinced that Araghetty's gonna
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: actually bitch well here, man, And in fact, I prefer
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: not only the situation for Cincinnati, but I prefer Chase Burns,
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: so I think is a more solidified pitcher already for
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: the Reds here. I mean, Burns is younger than Arragetty.
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: Burns is already his career is already on a better
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: trajectory in my opinion. Even though Araghetty's looked pretty good
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: this season, he's taken a while to even get to
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: this point. Burns already is really good, and at this
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: point I think he's under the radar, and the Reds
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: while they're not that good, I think again, I think
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: the stock is pretty low on the Reds at this point.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: By the way, yes I forgot. This is a best
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: bet and the Reds are heavy enough favorite. We do
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: have to split bet this minus one and a half
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: run line at plus one thirty eight and the rest
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: of it on the money line at about minus one fifty.
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: You know, if you want to just go money line
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: with it and lay a bunch of juice, I'm not
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: gonna disagree with that either. But I'm splitting it up
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: so it comes out to about a minus one oh
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: five number here.
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So this is the breakdown here.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: If we're doing it out of one hundred sixty three
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: or so of it going the money line part of it,
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: and then whatever that returns, you put that amount on
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: the money or on the run line part of it.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: So if they win by one, it'll push Burns has
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: a two point two ERA one point h two whip.
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: Not to be confused with Corb and Burns. By the way,
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: who's still injured. I think he's still on Arizona. I
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: don't know if he's coming back Chase Burns, though, yes,
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: he's not as good at home, I know two point
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: eight two ERA.
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: It's this is a more hitter friendly ballpark.
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: I understand whatever, But Burns, I mean, he's only a
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: lot more than tour in runs once this season as well,
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: in an off home start against Anaheim, and that is
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: skewing his home numbers as well.
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: Uh, looks like it was more of a fluke.
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: His overall numbers are more digestible than Araghetty's. He's gone
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: forty one innings, he's only a lot twenty nine hits.
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: He's got forty six strikeouts, so he strikes out a
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: lot of guys as well. And he only has thirteen walks,
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: so he only has like one more walk than Araghetty
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: does in like way more innings pitch so far.
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I prefer Burns here.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: Burns is also completely unknown to Houston, so he has
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: the unfamiliarity factor here as well. And again, even though
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati's bullpen has been bad recently. Houston's is such an
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: atrocious bullpen. I think every team has a bullpen edge
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: against Houston.
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: So yeah, the.
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: Reds should put up more than zero runs this time,
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: and they hopefully don't have to score that many in
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: backing of Burns here, So let's get it done. And yeah,
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: this game is probably gonna be lower scoring as well.
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: Will I will admit that the totals at eight and
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: a half. I don't really have that good of an
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: opinion on the total though, But yes, we were going
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: with Cincinnati. It looks like we have eighty percent of
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: the tickets on Houston. The public looks like they're on Houston,
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: and Houston not a particularly good team this year, fifty
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: four percent of the cash, so I think the real
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: money is backing Cincinnati here for all those reasons. It's
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: one of those situations I like where you get Situation
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: and matchup both are in our favor here, So let's
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: do it.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: Started pitching matchup. I mean, Cincinnati is the play all right?
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: Dale Cruz, Yeah, I mean he does he get a
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: lot of stolen bases?
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: I presume he does. Mister Burns, yeah, hopefully.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: I was gonna try to find some joke about the
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: referencing the uh the Baseball episode and where mister Burns
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: puts together the baseball team.
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: I don't fucking know. Tampa Bay at Boston.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: My Red Sox got a good outing yesterday from Connolly early.
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: He dominated, dude. Red Sox got the win yesterday. So
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: these teams have split the series so far. Red Sox
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: with a two nothing win yesterday. You know, Tampa, they're
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: pretty good, but I think they're not as good as
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: their record looks as I've been saying, like their run
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: differential would indicate that they should be. They should be
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: above five hundred, but not as far above five hundred
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: as they are. Red Sox may be starting to turn
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: this around.
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox are now going with this like young
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: pitching rotation. They actually have a lot of young pitching depth.
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: Even though I'm gonna continue to complain that they got
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: rid of Kyle Harrison because he is pitching today as well,
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: and we're gonna talk about that later. Red Sox used
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: two relief pitchers yesterday. They did use Chapman though, because
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: it was a save situation, but he hadn't pitched in days,
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: Tampa looks like they used nobody out of the bullpen.
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: I think they did use one arm out of the bullpen,
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: but it was somebody that's not actually listed as being
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: in their bullpen. I don't even know Nick Martinez pitching
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: for Tampa Bay or actually, wait a minute, my mistake.
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: Bullpen wise, yet, Boston seventh in bullpen, Tampa Bay is tenth.
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: So Tampa Bay has really improved their bullpen recently. So
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: I would say the Red Sox do have a little
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: bit of a bullpen edge, but it's not much. Hitting
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: at Tampa Bay has an edge here. They're eighteenth, the
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are twenty eighth. They really got to turn
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: that around.
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: Nick Martinez pitching for Tampa Bay, he's been good this
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: season one point seven to one ERA, one point oh
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: to whip.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's a decent pitcher.
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: You look at his numbers overall not bad, but his
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: career numbers are not this good. So there is going
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: to be some regression here, man, from a thirty five
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: year old Martinez. Just a question of when that is
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: going to happen. He's been good on the road, although
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: slightly less good one point eight five ERA. He is
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: pitching well. I mean, he hasn't a lot more than
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: tour and runs in any outing. He's faced a number
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: of really weak offenses in here, though. He had kind
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: of a shaky start against the Yankees, which is obviously
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: the best offense.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: That he faced.
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: Even though he only allowed one run in that outing
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: and they got they actually won the game, but he
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: did walk three guys.
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: He's got twenty eight strikeouts and forty two innings.
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: Not a high strikeout rate, but yes, he's not putting
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: a lot of guys on base at all. Thirty three hits,
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: ten walks. That's all good. However, the Red Sox have
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: seen a decent amount of him, and they've.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: Hit him pretty well.
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: Forty one career at bats, eight strikeouts, one walk. I mean,
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: that's a good ratio there for him. But three nine
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: average allowed oney fifteen ops.
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: Red Sox deftly capable of.
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: Getting to him, and the Red Sox are going with
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: Peyton Toley, who is putting up good numbers so far
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: this year. Two point zero four ERA, point seven to
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: four whip.
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: He's been good at.
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: Home one point five ERA. He's only made three starts
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: so far. One was not good on the road against Toronto.
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: His other two starts were against the better offenses, the
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: Yankees in Detroit, and he did really well in those starts.
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: He's got a twenty three to six strikeout walk ratio
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: and only seven hits allowed in seventeen to two thirds innings.
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: He's pitching well.
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: He's coming off of one hitting Detroit and unfortunately two
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: unearned runs scored while he was out there. Not his
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: fault at all, but the Red Sox won the game anyway,
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: and he picked up a win, which that might have been.
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: Was that his first career win?
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure, yes it was, so congratulations first career win.
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: Uh Timba Bay only four test has ever faced before.
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: He one for one with a single, So yeah, totally
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: has an unfamiliarity edge here. I am going to lean
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: to the Red Sox here, you know, I think they
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: have the starting pitching edge.
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: Not a play for me or anything. Hopefully they can
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: get it done because they are my team.
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: Totally or excuse me, Red Sox. Look like the money
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: is kind of agreeing with that. Tampa's got sixty nine
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets, only sixty three percent of the cash,
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: and you can see the Red Sox are favored at
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: about minus one fifty something. Well, why are the Red
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: Sox favored like that against a team with a significantly
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: better record? Right, the odds makers are telling you the
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are actually probably the better team here and
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: have the better of the pitching matchup here.
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: That is what's going into that number there.
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: You know, the odds makers are not just giving you
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: free money, so uh yeah, reading into that number a
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: little bit does kind of indicate that it looks like
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: the oddsmakers are telling you the Red Sox should win
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: that game. So that's what's going on there. Hopefully that's correct.
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: I'm just gonna root for them. As a fan Washington
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: at Miami. Miami lost yesterday three to two. I'm kind
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: of pissed because that was one of my stronger leans,
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: which was a first five under. Although actually no, I'm
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: not pissed because that was a loss all five runs
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: in the game, which came home in the first inning,
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: and then no runs.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: Scored after that.
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: But it was also extremely misleading because the team's only
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: combined for eleven hits in the entire game. It's ridiculous
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: that all five runs scored in the first inning imagine
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: if you had a full game over in that one,
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: five runs of the first inning and then you lose
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: the bet. Oh Man, But yes, we actually would have
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: lost because I would have gone first five in that one.
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: Probably. I think that was what my recommendation was. Anyway.
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: Bullpen usage.
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: Washington not a good bullpen, by the way, they only
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: used two relievers yesterday. Miami used three. But Miami does
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: have the better bullpen. They're actually ranked fourth in bullpen.
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: Washington is twenty first, pretty significant bullpen edge from Miami.
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: Washington has the better hitting their ninth right now, Miami
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: twenty first. Miami's definitely fallen off starting pitching, though, just
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: on the surface, you gotta think Miami's starting pitcher is
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: the better one. Zach Lttel is pitching for Washington. He
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: has been pretty awful. Seven point two forty RA, one
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: point six to one WHIP. He's been a little bit
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: better on the road six point five nine ROADRA. But
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: this is some bad stuff here, man. He's got seventeen
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: strikeouts in twelve walks and forty hits allowed and just
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: a ridiculous thirteen home runs allowed in thirty two and
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: a third innings. You have to be kidding me with
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: that number. That has to be the most in baseball
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: right now. He's allowing almost one home run every two winnings. Basically,
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: that is that's unbelievable. Yeah, I would not trust Latel.
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: Although the home runs tend to be a little bit fluky,
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: but it does mean he's putting two many pitches over
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: the plate. They're hit able pitches. People are hitting them
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: in the hitting them in the air. You know, his
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: numbers against Miami are actually good though they only have
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: fourteen at bats against him. They have no extra base hits,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: only one strikeout, no walks, one forty three average two
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: eighty six ops. So while Lattel has been awful this season,
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: this might be a matchup where he might actually pitch
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: a little bit better. And Miami is a more hitter
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: friendly ballpark, so he might allow fewer home runs than
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: this one. But Jansen junk is pitching for Miami.
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: He's pitching well.
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: Two point eight two eram one point zher four whip.
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: He's been good at home two point six y three
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: home e ram. Yeah, I mean, there's not a lot
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: to dislike about what he's done so far. Not a
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: high strikeout, Ray. That's the only thing you could really say.
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: Twenty seven strikeouts in thirty eight and the third innings,
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: eight walks, thirty two hits allowed, so he's definitely not
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: putting guys on base.
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: He's not allowing a lot of runs.
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: He's only allowed more than two hour in run twice
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: this season, and that includes, you know, a good start
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: last time out against the Phillies, although they haven't been
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: hitting well this year. He went on the road to
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: shut out the Dodgers for six innings and by the way,
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: we all lost on Miami in that last game because.
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: Miami's hitting didn't do their part at all.
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: Junk does not have great numbers against Washington, though the
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: only four hitters who have faced him but sixteen at bats,
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: they have some extra race hits in there. Three seventy
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: five average allowed, eleven thirty two ops. So his matchup
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: numbers aren't good. So if you buy into the matchup numbers,
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: they actually favor Lattel, believe it or not, I would
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: not want to do that though the money is coming
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: in on Miami. I mean, the matchup numbers that we're
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: looking at are such a small sample size that I
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: think you have to weigh that less than what are
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: these pitchers doing right now? And Junk has clearly been
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: the better pitcher, Plus Miami has a better bullpen. Plus
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: Miami's in a bounce back spot. Was not returning home
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: from a road trip. But they really haven't been playing well.
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: They've lost five of their last six games. But you know,
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: there's certainly capable of beating Washington at home with a
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup like this, and Miami's favored pretty significantly here.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: Washington's not a good team, dude.
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: Fifty three percent of tickets, sixty four percent of the
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: cash on Miami. They're in the minus one fifties, which
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: I know that's a bit of a price to lay.
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure that Junk should really be that much
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: of a favorite. The money is also indicating towards the
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: under in this game. Not quite sure that I would
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: want to go in that direction, you know, I it's
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: a tough call, dude, because the matchup numbers don't really
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: coincide with what these pitchers have done this year. I
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: think I would lean to Miami, though the money seems
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: to be agreeing with it. You know, it'd have to
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: be a money line run line split situation or something
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: like that.
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: I don't want anything to do.
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: With it, though, but I think just current form I
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: think matters more than these small, sample sized matchup numbers
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: at Philadelphia. I don't know there's an art to it. Man,
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia lost yesterday nine to seven. That's pretty embarrassing losing
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: to the Rockies. Philadelphia a pretty big favorite here.
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: Yesterday.
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: They had a very inexperienced pitcher on them, ould though Painter,
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: so he didn't do very well. I would assume I
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: haven't really looked at the box score, but Philadelphia is
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: the better team.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: They're a huge favorite here. You gotta think they're gonna
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: bounce back.
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: Colorado used a lot of relievers yesterday, but so did Philly.
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: Colorado use five, Philadelphia you six. So this is a
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: situation where you want to fade these bullpens. And they're
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: not even good bullpens either. They're ranked nineteenth and twentieth
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: respectively Colorado and Philly. Philly's era is a little bit
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: better though. Hitting wise, Colorado's been the better offense. They're
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: sixth offensively. Some of that because they hit better at home, though,
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: and they're not at home here. Philadelphia twenty fourth, offensively
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: not good, even though again their lineup should turn that
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: around to some extent. Kyle Frieland is pitching for Colorado.
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: He hasn't been great five point zero foury ray, one
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: point three to six whip. He's been better on the road.
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: Of course, pitching a course field is difficult.
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: He's got a.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: Four point four road ray and he was actually pitching
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: pretty well until he got lit up in his last
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: start by the Braves in Colorado. So that was one
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: of the best offenses in baseball this year in the
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: most hit or friendly ballparks, so you might argue that
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: was a little bit of a fluke.
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: He did have a lot of strikeouts in the outing.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: The rest of his numbers are not bad.
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: Twenty four to eight strike out walk ratio in twenty
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: six hits a lot in twenty five innings. None of that,
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: like jumps out at me as being bad. So I
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: don't really think Freeland is that bad, and he is
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: better on the road.
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: At least. His numbers a gets Filly are actually good
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: as well.
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: In a huge one hundred and forty eight at bat
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: sample size, forty two to nine strike out walk ratio,
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: two thirty average allowed ops so this is a decent
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: matchup for him. Man, So I'm not really you know,
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: I'm not running to fade Freeland here.
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: Aaron Nola is pitching for the Phillies.
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: And we faded him in his last outing, and he
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: pitched well against Miami. Nola is really a mystery because
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: he was good throughout his career and then he had
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: Tommy John surgery or whatever and did not bounce back
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: from it really last year. But it makes him really
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: difficult to predict because he has some really good starts
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: mixed in there, and he has other starts where he
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: does not look good. He's got a five point zero
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: six ERA one point four or five whip. Those are
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: obviously not good numbers. He's been a little bit worse
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: at home five point four homey Ram. He did shut
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: out Miami for six innings last time out and did
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: not walk anybody. So that was a very good looking
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: start after he had a few really shaky starts in
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: a row, but he had faced the Cubs and the Braves,
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: then he stepped down in class to face Miami. He
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: faced Colorado earlier this year in course Field, and he
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: pitched really well in that outing. He went six and
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: a third give up one on and run, nine strikeouts,
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: one walk, So obviously he is capable of beating Colorado.
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: His numbers are good against them, seventy two at bats,
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: thirty strikeouts and two walks against them. That is a
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: ridiculous ratio and a ridiculous strikeout right, two thirty six
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: batting average allowed six eighty seven ops. So yeah, to me,
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: it looks like both starting pitchers could actually do well here.
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: And I want to check to see if yeah, Friedland
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: did not actually face Philly during that series. He did
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: not show up in the rotation there. Yeah, you know
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: this game, I would lean first five under in this game.
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: It might sound crazy. I don't want anything to do
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: with the bullpens, but seventy two percent ticket sixty five
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the over, so the money
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: kind of indicating towards the under total eight and a
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: half for the full game, first five under makes some
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: sense to me in that one man, I think both
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: starting pitchers might actually do well in that one. Senate
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: tickets and only sixty four percent of the money on
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: Philly at about a minus one to eighty five minus
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: one eighty price. There, you know, I mean it does
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: seem like Philly is overpriced with that number. They're like,
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: I don't know if you could trust Nola that much
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: such that you should be favored to that extent, you
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: know what I mean.
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: So I think the money is coming in.
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: Towards Colorado just because of the value perspective of it.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: But on the other hand, I think Philly is embarrassed
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: with the fact they lost to Colorado yesterday, and a
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: lot of times a team that is the better team
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: will bounce back from that, you know, after being upset
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: in the previous game, kind of like a zigzag. All right,
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: Minnesota at Cleveland this game. We pushed on the first
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: five under in yesterday's game and then the game wound
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: up going over with some late runs there. You can't
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: trust Minnesota's bullpen, man, you really cannot. Cleveland wound up
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: winning the game six to four, a lot of it
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: because of Minnesota's bullpen not getting the job done, and
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: usually they don't. Minnesota had used four guys out of
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: the bullpen yesterday and Gomez only for two pitches, though
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: Cleveland also used four.
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: I don't really trust Cleveland's.
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: Bullpen either, even though they're ranked twelfth, their Eray is
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: above four, which worries me a bit. Minnesota is horrendous
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: though their rays is close to six. They're ranked twenty eighth,
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: and I think they're worse than that. I think they're
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: probably the second worst bullpen in baseball to Houston at
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: this point, very very bad. Cleveland's hitting has not been
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: very good though they are twentieth in hitting. Minnesota is twelfth.
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: Uh so, yeah, I think I agree in Minnesota is
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: the better offense. Joe Ryan is pitching for Minnesota. I
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: thought he was injured, but apparently not because he's pitching
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: I think on schedule here three point seven two ERA,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: one point six whip.
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, we know he's a.
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: Very good pitcher. He's Minnesota's ace. He's well established. He's
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: not been as good on the road this year though,
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: four point sixty four Roady ra Now, it looks like
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: he did get hurt because he came out he was
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: nine pitches into his last outing against Toronto and they
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: took him out of the game. So there was obviously
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: some sort of injury going on there. But he is
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: pitching on his normal scheduled rest here, and you could argue,
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: you know, he's extra rest and and on schedules still
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: because he got ready for that game, made the start technically,
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: and now he's pitching on normal rest. For a veteran
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: like him, I don't think it matters that much though,
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: Even though pitchers are creatures, have habit, they want to
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: stay on schedule. He's been good against Cleveland throughout his
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: career one hundred and three at bats, eighteen to seven
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: strike aut walk ratio is not that good, but two
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: fourteen batting average allowed six to sixty two ops. Yeah,
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: I mean I expect Ryan does pitch well here. Tanner
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: Biby is pitching for Cleveland. He's tough to figure out, dude.
• 37:51
  Speaker 4: I mean, he was their ace a couple of years ago.
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: He had a regression last year. This year, his numbers
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: don't really look very good. Four point five eighty RA,
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: one point four to seven WHIP. He's been really good
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: at home, though he has extreme home road slits. He
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: has a one point six six ERA at home, so
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: you could definitely back him at home, at least in
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: the right spots. Cleveland has lost seven starts in a
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: row of his though, now last year almost the opposite
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: was going on. If you remember last year he got
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: so much run support from his offense last year that
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: Cleveland was winning like every game that he was pitching,
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: even when he wasn't pitching that well. Well, now you
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: know the opposite is happening, or you know, we've seen
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: when when something like that is going on, you expect regression,
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: and we've seen a ton of it here. But really
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: he doesn't he kind of doesn't deserve you know this,
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: Like a lot of these starts, He's actually pitched fairly
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: well and the offense just hasn't done anything behind him.
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: His numbers overall don't look that bad to me. Thirty
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: six strikeouts is a little bit low. In thirty nine
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: to third innings, usually he strikes more guys out than
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: that sixteen is concerning. I will admit that that's too
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: many walks. Forty two hits allowed is a bit too
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: many as well. But these numbers, you know.
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're really that egregious. Though.
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Minnesota are pretty decent. In sixty nine
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: at bats fifteen to six strikeout walk ratio to forty
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: six average seven h seven ops. So I actually think
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: Biby can actually pitch well here, and he pitches well
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: at home this year. Like I said, I think first
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: five under is is the opinion for me in this
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: game as well, even though it was the same yesterday,
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: having a lot of deja vu today, I think, uh,
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: where is this game here?
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: It is? The money's coming in towards Minnesota.
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: By the way, Cleveland's about a minus one twenty favorite here,
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: but the fact that the oddsmakers are favoring Cleveland here
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: kind of tells you they do respect Biby a bit.
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: I mean, Joe Ryan being an underdog. But the money's
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: all coming in that way. Ninety one percent of the
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: cash on Minnesota, fifty seven percent of the tickets on Cleveland.
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: Again using wager talk here because pregame still has not
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: fixed their screen. Absolutely unacceptable from Pregame. Fucked them. You
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: know a lot of handicappers.
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: Actually used their tool because it was the best free
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: tool out there. Total for this game is at eight.
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: We don't see the percentages here, but I think first
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: five under does make sense in this game. The money
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: coming out of Minnesota. Probably just thinking like, how do
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: you possibly get Joe Ryan as an underdog here? But
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: it almost looks too easy, kind of like what I
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: said with.
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: Chris Sale yesterday.
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: Those Sale actually outpitched him at Shean and then the
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: Dodgers won that game late. So I don't know, man, Yeah,
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: that's not a game I want anything to do with.
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: But I think the under.
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: First five is my preference. Uh, Cubs at Texas. Texas
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: is in one of those spots. Like I said with Cincinnati,
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: Texas returned home from a road trip. They were coming
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: off a couple of big series against Detroit and the Yankees,
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: and then what happened. Yeah, they got blown out by
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: the Cubs yesterday seven to one. And I talk about
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: that return home spot. Sometimes it's bad, you know, return home,
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: you get distractions, whatever. Sometimes when that happens, you do
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: bounce back and you play better in the next game.
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: So Texas is in a positive situation in my opinion.
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: Texas used three relief pitchers yesterday. They do have a
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: good bullpen, but the Cubs also do. Cubs also use
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: three relief pitchers yesterday, including the dictator asad. Cubs are
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: sixth in bullpen right now, Rangers are eighth. But the
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: Rangers I believe have the best bullpen er and I
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: think the Rangers are the better bullpen here. But the
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: Cubs have a pretty good bullpen as well. Hitting wise,
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: the Cubs are obviously better. They're third in hitting now,
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: Texas is twenty sixth, so there is a big offensive
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: disparity here, but good pitching can even that out. And
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: on the surface, yes, I do think the Cubs do
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: have the better starting pitcher here.
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: Edward Cabrera. He's been pretty good.
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: Three point two seventy one point two eight whip is
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: a little bit high. He tends to get a little
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: bit wild man. He's been good on the road, a
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: two point three eighty R and this is a pitcher
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: friendly ballpark here in Texas. Cabrera seems to be very
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: consistently allowing three ear in runs in every single one
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: of his outings, and the Cubs have won most of
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: those outdays because they have enough offensive firepower that they
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: could certainly win those games. His overall numbers are pretty strong,
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: thirty seven strikeouts and forty one to third innings. It's
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: fine or they'll usually I expect more strikeouts out of him.
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: Fourteen walks is really the concern. Thirty nine hits allowed,
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: you know, fourteen walks, that's too many walks.
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: Uh So that's his one issue is he's too wild.
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: Cabrera does not have good numbers against Texas, but it's
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: basically all Brandon Nimo doing it though, So it's like,
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: how much weight do you put into this that Texas
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: has three hitters that have faced him before, they have
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: twenty one at bats. They have a three eighty one
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: averaging him nine eighty ops, six strikeouts, eight walks, but
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: seven of the walks are Nemo, who was on the
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: Mets for a while and has done a lot of
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: damage against them.
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: Cabrera was on the Marlins too, so they're in the
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: same division.
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I think you should not put too much
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: weight into this because Texas overall their lineup's not that
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: good and Cabrera is certainly capable of pitching well here,
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I don't think I would put that much
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: weight into this. If he pitches around Nemo, you know,
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: I think he should actually do okay here. Jack Lighter
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Texas. He hasn't been very good five
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: point four five ERA one point three to seven whip,
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: although I think he's certainly capable of pitching well and
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: he has been better at home four point five homey RA,
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: where it is more pitcher friendly. He had ten strikeouts
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: in his last outing against Detroit. He gave up five
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: e in runs, which might not look good, but he
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: got unlucky. He had one walk, five hits in that
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: one ten strikeouts. That wasn't bad. He threw one hundred
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: pitches though, so maybe he's a little bit tired after that.
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: But he has done that otherwise this year, and he
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: pitched okay in the next outing after that.
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: You know, he hasn't had it easy.
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: He's had to fase the Dodgers, the Yankees, So you know,
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: I think Lighter is maybe not as bad as maybe
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: his overall numbers would suggest him. When you dive into
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: these season totals here, these numbers are not really that bad.
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: He's got forty three strikeouts in thirty eight innings. He's
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: got good strikeouts stuff. Thirteen walks is a little high,
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: but the high strikeout rate makes that ratio not bad.
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: Thirty nine hits in thirty eight innings. You'd like to
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: see him be less hittable, but that's not that bad.
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I actually don't think Lighter is that bad.
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: And the Cubs only have nine at bats against him
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: and they're zero for nine against him with three strikeouts
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: in one walk. So I think Lighter is capable of
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: pitching well here. I am going to lean to Texas here,
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: although the money seems to be slightly against it. I
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: think Texas has the capability of doing this. Man, I
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: think it's a close call, and they're an under here
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: with the Cubs that are about minus one thirty something.
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: Here, you're getting a.
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: Decent Texas team where I think the matchup is close
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: to even in my opinion, as a home dog in
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: a positive situation, I would slightly lean that way, even
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: though I think Cabrera is probably better than Lighter somewhat.
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: Uh sixty five percent of tickets, seventy one percent of
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: the cash on the Cubs, you know, money slightly on
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: the Cubs. The totals at eight and a half. You know,
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: an under could be possibly a way to look at
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: this as well. Eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety four
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the under. You got a
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: lot of unfamiliarity with with both starting pitchers here and
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: two good bullpens, so an under is certainly not out
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: of the realm of possibility here. And that is probably
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: an opinion that I would have in this game as well.
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: Lean Texas and lean under from me in that game.
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: All right, Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City won the
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: game yesterday four to three, so, you know, debatably a
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: bounce back spot for Detroit here, but when you look
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: at what Detroit's pitching set up is today, I don't
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: think you're gonna like it. Detroit used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: Kansas City used four. Kansas City's bullpen has been pretty
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: bad as well. They're twenty fourth right now. Detroit hasn't
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: been that good either, but their era is at least
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: below four now and they're twenty second. I'm gonna give
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: Detroit a little bit of a bullpen edge year. Detroit
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: is the better offense as well at ninth, although Kansas
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: City has moved up to thirteenth, so they've been a
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: capable offense, and recently they've been hitting pretty well since
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: they moved the walls in at home, it's been easier
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: to hit in this ballpark. And Detroit has Birch Smith
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: listed as their starting pitcher.
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think this is gonna go well.
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: Detroit is going with a bullpen game, and we know
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: Detroit they are the Kings of the bullpen game. We
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: know that they do bullpen games a lot, so they are.
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: Used to this.
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: They play, but they used four guys out of the
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: bullpen yesterday or whatever. Smith is a thirty six year
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: old and you look at his career. Yeah, I don't
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: know about this man. He's been in the league off
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: and on since twenty thirteen. He was actually out of
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: Major League Baseball for five years. I don't know if
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: maybe he went to another country or I don't know
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: what the deal was, came back into the league. He's
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: only had like two really full seasons in the majors
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: in twenty eighteen, and he was kind of a starting
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: pitcher to some extent way back then. Hasn't made a
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: start since then, and then he.
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: Was a reliever.
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: He did pitch a full season in twenty twenty four,
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: did not pitch in the majors in twenty twenty five.
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: His career numbers do not inspire confidence. Five point six
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: ERA one point five whip. But his numbers this year
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: one point five ninety RA one point one five whip.
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: It's like, which Burt Smith? That a you gonna get here?
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: He's only pitched eleven and a third inning so far,
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: sixteen strikeouts, four walks, nine hits loud. But he's only
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: gonna give you like two winnings here, man. Man, he's
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: an opener. He's gonna go one to two winnings here,
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: would be my guest. That's what he's done all season.
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: So you're gonna get a bullpen game from Detroit, so
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: act accordingly here. You know, I'm not even quite sure
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: that Smith is going to start the game. So this
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: might be one of those games that it will be
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: a game where if you have a good read on
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: this game, basically knowing it's gonna be a bullpen game
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: for Detroit, it's a game where you might play and
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: make an action bet on it. Michael Waka is pitching
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: for the Royals. Obviously, I prefer Waka over whatever the
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: hell Detroit is doing what they're pitching here. Again, maybe
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: I'm too old school. I don't like the bullpen games.
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: Waka has the three point oh five VRA one point
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: oh six whip. He's been a little bit worse at
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: home though, three point five four ERA, but it's still
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: pretty solid. He's a solid pitcher, dude. He goes unheralded
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: because he's not a strikeout guy. That's been the case
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: throughout his career. Man, You've been able to find value
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: betting Waka a lot of time because he's just not
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: a flame thrower. But he gets the job done. He's
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: had one bad start, basically against Baltimore.
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: It wasn't home though.
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: He actually pitched pretty well against the Yankees before that,
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: pitch well in his opener against the Braves. He's faced
• 49:14
  Speaker 4: some good offenses and then he struggled to been on
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: the road at the A's and we know that's a
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: horrible ballpark. He bounces back pretty nicely with a pretty
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: good start against Cleveland last time out. He's allowed two
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: or fewer runs in all but those two outings against
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: Baltimore in the A's thirty six strikeouts, fifteen walks. It's
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: not a great ratio. It is too many walks. So
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: he's only allowed thirty two.
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: Hits and forty four and a third innings. So yeah,
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: even though Walker is a little bit of a walker,
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: you know it's not that bad.
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: He's gonna be using a walker pretty soon though, because
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: he is pretty old. Detroit has hit him fairly well,
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: though one hundred twenty one at bats, nineteen to three
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio is not bad for him, though
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: he doesn't walk guys against Detroit at least, but throughout
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: his career he hasn't really walked that many guys. Uh
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: two eighty one batting average allowed seven forty five ops.
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: So overall those numbers they're not horrible, but they're not
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: great either. So I don't know, man, I mean, I
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: don't have a good read on this game.
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: Really. I still think I prefer Waka over this Detroit
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: bullpen game. But the money is all coming in on Detroit.
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: It looks like fifty to fifty on the tickets, ninety
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: two percent of the cash on Detroit. I don't like it, man,
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: And the totals at nine, I guess because of this
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: new phenomenon in Kaufin Stadium where they move the walls in.
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: Kansas City's about minus one thirty four. I think I
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: leaned Kansas City maybe just first five, so you don't
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: have to deal with Kansas City's bullpen. But I think
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: Waka is still preferable to whatever the hell bullpen situation
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: Detroit is doing. But do with that information what you
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: want again. I think maybe I underrate the bullpen games
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: too much as well.
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: So that's what I think pregame ritual. I don't know.
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't drink anymore. I don't, dude, I
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: don't even watch games. So mister Pinsey, what's up?
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: No?
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: I mean I was not good on the show yesterday,
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: flat Earth grappl Er, what's up?
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: Man? UFC? I don't really do.
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: UFC, man, I mean, I take too much on as
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: it is. I've made a few UFC bets in my life,
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: but it has to be like I have to actually
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: like focus on a particular fight and actually have a
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: really good reason to uh to deal with it. I
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: don't know, it's it's an individual sport, it's a money
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: line sport.
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know. I don't know what else
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: to say about it.
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: But no, I don't know anything about the UFC card tonight, Tyson,
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: what's up?
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, So if you want UFC,
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: you're gonna be disappointed. Yankees at Milwaukee.
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: This is gonna be one of my plays, and then
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: I have one more play somewhere in here.
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: This one. You probably know what this is because you
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: know how I am. This game is gonna be an under.
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: We're gonna go under seven and a half Yankees Milwaukee here.
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: I don't mind the bullpens in this one, so I
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: think we can leave them in. Yankees only use one
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: guy out of the bullpen yesterday, so all their high
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: leverage bullpen arms are available. Milwaukee had an easy win yesterday.
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: Same goes for Milwaukee.
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: They used Drohan, who was a long relief man.
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: All their better relievers are available as well, so I
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: think the bullpens are good to go here. Both bullpens
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: rested the day before. No excuse me, Milwaukee's rested the
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: day before that, the Yankees didn't. But either way, the
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: bullpen's set up pretty well in this game. The bullpens
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: are also not bad.
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: The Yankees are.
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: Ninth now in bullpen. Their bullpen's been a lot better
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: than last year. Milwaukee's hasn't been great, but seventeenth. I
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: mean that's not horrible. They're eras in the threes. Nothing
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: really bad about that, so I'm fine with this bullpen
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: set up. Yes, the Yankees are a good offense. They're
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: ranked fourth right now, the Brewers twenty second.
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: I still think the Brewers are.
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: Gonna start climbing offensively a bit now. The Brewers did
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: win the game yesterday, I believe, six to nothing behind
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: Jacob Mizerowski had I don't know, seven pitches in the
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: first few innings of that game that were one hundred
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: and three plus miles an hour. He's setting records for
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: how many pitches, like how many of the fastest pitchers
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: ever recorded in a Major League Baseball game? Or his
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: it's getting ridiculous, his miss whatever. The Brewers got the
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: job done in that game yesterday. The game did go
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: under as well. But I think this sets up to
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: be another under here, man. You'll get this starting pitching
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: matchup here. Cam Schlittler is pitching for the Yankees.
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: We have two.
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: Young talented pitchers on them out here, man. And while
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: Schlittler's becoming more of a known commodity, on the other side,
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: Kyle Harrison is still not a known name. So I
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: like this under here. Schlitzler's been awesome one point five
• 53:56
  Speaker 4: two ERA point eighty seven whip. I mean, he's actually
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's got
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: an even better erra on the road one point one seven.
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: He's allowed.
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: One or fewer and runs and all but two outings,
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: which are both in somewhat early April. He's got a
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: fifty three to nine strikeout walk ratio on top of
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: more ground ballouts than fly ballouts, and only thirty two
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: hits allowed, forty seven to a third innings, and only
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: one home run allowed, which was the Red Sox, by
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: the way, in a game that he won. Anyway, Milwaukee's
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: also never seen him before, so we know how good
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: he is. And he's facing the lineup it's never faced
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: him before, so you know, I talk about that's an
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: extra advantage to the pitcher having never been seen before
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: by the opposing lineup. Meanwhile, on the other side, the
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: guy the Red Sox got in the Devers trade, and
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: I liked the Devers trade, and I think I was
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: right about that, Kyle Harrison Jordan Hicks, who by the way,
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: has thrown one hundred three miles an hour multiple times
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: in games as well. Although he's somewhere off the raidar
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: and I don't know where he is, Kyle Harrison is
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: starting to pitch really well. Red Sox traded him for
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: fucking Caleb Durban. Probably not probably not the best move
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: man even though the Red Sox do have a lot
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: of starting pitching depth. I'll give them that, so that's
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: part of the reason they did it. And Durban at
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: least is a good fielder, I guess. But yeah, I mean,
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: I would like to have Kyle Harrison right now, man,
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: and the Red Sox traded Tibbs for Dustin May, which
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: is even worse. Sorry, I'm a Red Sox fan.
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: I'm venting. Uh.
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: Tibbs looks like he's gonna be a great hitting outfielder,
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: and he is on the Dodgers in their Triple A
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: affiliate right now, I believe. But yes, that was a
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: horrible trade, Red Sox trading TIBs for Dustin May. The
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: Devers trade was good. Devers has been ass since they
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: got rid of him. He's a chemistry killer. If the
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: Red Sox had Tibbs and Harrison still, we'd be uh,
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: we'd be feeling pretty good about that anyway. Harrison as
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: a two point one two e RRA one point one
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: to one whip. He's been really good this year, little
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: bit better at home to one point seven to six HOMEYRA.
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: on the season. Hasn't exactly faced the most potent offenses though,
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: so yeah, the Yankees are going to be a step up,
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: I'll admit that. But he's got a thirty five to
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: nine strike out walk ratio, twenty four hits allowed in
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: twenty nine to two thirds innings. These are all good numbers.
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: He's only allowed two home runs, and the Yankees have
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: seen him, but not much. They have twenty one at
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: bats against him.
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: Four strikeouts, one walk.
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: He's held him to a two thirty eight average seven
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: oh one ops. But for the most part, the Yankees
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: are pretty unfamiliar with Harrison, so I think that's an
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: extra edge for him as well. Under is the call
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: in this game. Seven and a half money seems like
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: it's not agreeing with me. Seventy seven percent of tickets
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: on the under, sixty four percent of the cash on
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: the under, So I do worry about that a little bit.
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: That market read is not really telling me the same thing,
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: but I like it. The money is coming in on Milwaukee, though,
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: but that tells me that the money is expecting Harrison
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: to do well.
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: And do you really think the money is fading the
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: Yankees because it because they think Schlitzler's not going to
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: do well.
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: There's no way that's the case.
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: So I think the money is backing Milwaukee because they
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: expect Harrison to pitch well. So that kind of supports
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: my under So the money's telling me different things here.
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: Fifty eight percent of tickets on the Yankees, seventy eight
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Milwaukee Yankees are about minus
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: one forty or so here.
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: You know, I'm going under here.
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: That's the way I'm going Seven and a half is
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: the total there, it's you know, I.
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: Mean, it's you expect the total to be that.
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: That's a total that you get in a good pitching matchup,
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: and I think that is what we have here. So
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: with bullpens that can get the job done as well.
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: So that's what we're gonna do. I'm gonna take a break.
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: I'll be right back. We'll talk about the rest of
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: these games. I have one more play in the later
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: games here, and you might be able to figure out
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: what it is if you know how I do it.
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: Chimaia is overvalued. I'm not sure about that. Those types
• 58:05
  Speaker 4: of like grapplers, they're almost always undervalued because the public
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: always likes guys that punch hard and hit hard.
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: They like hard hitting baseball teams. They're like hard hitting
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: strikers in fighting, so they always they always underrate the grapplers,
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: the wrestlers.
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: I'm not so sure about that, mister Penzy, get out
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: of here with your Yankees bullshit.
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: It's gonna be I think it's gonna be a close call.
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: I think it's a tough call.
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: Maybe they bounce back after getting shut out yesterday, but yeah,
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: I mean I think it's a close call. I'm going
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: under in the game, as I showed you.
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: I'll be right back. All right, where did I leave off?
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: We have.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: Seattle and the White Sox all right, this game. Don't
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: want to talk about what happened yesterday. It was it
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: was an over. We got it wrong. But I think
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: how high scoring it was was pretty misleading. I mean,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: twenty runs scored on twenty hits. You usually don't see
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 4: their twenty two hits whatever, You usually don't see that.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: Just every base runner that reached scored in the game.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: Ridiculous.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: But I don't know if I'm gonna I'm not gonna
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: be recommending an under in this game. I don't know, actually,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: what I even would want to do with this game.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: This game is not gonna be one of my plays,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: needless to say. Uh, the White Sox use four relief
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday Seattle used three.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: Seattle has the better bullpen. Uh, There's no doubt about that.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: Seattle's sixteenth, but their era is quite good. One of
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen the Rays. I think they're like a
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: top five bullpen. The White Sox are pretty bad at
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: twenty fifth. Offensively, Seattle has started getting better. They're at
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: fourteenth now. Like I said, I thought they would start
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: turning it around. White Sox are actually tied with them
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: in ops. I think you could definitely argue Seattle actually
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: has the better offense here, although it is close.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: Right now, Luis Castillo is pitching for Seattle, and I
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: don't know what's going on with Castillo because he's not
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: that old and we've seen what he's done throughout his career.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: He's been a fine pitcher. I don't know what he's
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: doing this season. He has not been able to pitch
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: well six point two to ninety ra one point six
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: y six whip Usually he's worse on the road, which
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: he still is, but his numbers are just all awful.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: Seven point oh seven, Roady Ram, I mean he's usually
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: better at home because it's Seattle Pitcher friendly park, but
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: he's usually not bad. I don't know what the deal
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: is here, man. You know, you look into his numbers.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's just been way too hittable. Forty four
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: hits in thirty four and a third innings. It's not good.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: Thirty one strikeouts, thirteen walks, thirty one strikeouts. Excuse me,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: thirteen walks. You know it's too many walks as well.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: But you know, I mean that doesn't look that bad
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: to me. It's just that the hit ability has been
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: really bad. I don't know what the deal is. His
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: last start wasn't that bad. He gave up four and
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: runs against Kansas City in six innings but had five
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: strikeouts two walks.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: Maybe he is starting to turn around.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: He's he's had three alright starts in his last or
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: two in his last three starts.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: I don't know, Man.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 4: Numbers against the White Sox are good, so if he's
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: gonna start turning it around, it might start here. He's
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: got thirty career at bats against some eight to one
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, one hundred average allowed to sixty two
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: oh ps. Those are not bad numbers obviously at all.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: Anthony Kaye is pitching for the White Sox. I don't
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: think he's trustworthy. Five point seventy RA one point six
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: Evan Whip. I thought he was kind of more of
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: an opener type of guy, but they've been basically letting
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: him be a starter sort of. But he still doesn't
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: go deep into out is. He did pitch pretty well
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: in his last downing, but it was against San Diego
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: on the road. They haven't hit well this year, and
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: that's a pitcher friendly ballpark, so I don't think that's
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: really much of an indicator of anything. He has a
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: really bad strike out walk ratio twenty to fifteen and
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: thirty innings plus thirty five hits allowed.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: That's not good.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: So I if Castillo is what he normally is, he
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: should be able to easily outpitch k in this game.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: But Seattle Mariners don't have much experience against K. They
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: only have four hitters who have faced him, only one hit,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: which is a double from Joe Connor, Joe the guy
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: with two first names. They have no strikeouts, one walk
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: against him, two hundred average seven to thirty three ops.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: I think I still just kind of I think I
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: have to lean to Seattle here.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: Man, you're getting a price there that's it seems not
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: really that expensive to me. It minus won thirty years
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: though money looks like it's backing the White Sox. I
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 4: don't get it. Eighty three percent of tickets, ninety percent
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them. The oddsmakers are telling you
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: Seattle is the better team here Castillo. I mean again,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: my concern is that Castillo has looked awful this year.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what the deal is because I
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: don't know if he's hurt, Like, we gotta figure this out,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: because usually he's usually pretty easy to predict.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: He's usually not that bad.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: So I don't know what the deal is. But in
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: a normal.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: Circumstance, I would say he's certainly the better pitcher here.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: Plus Seattle has a better bullpen. Yeah, I mean, my
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: lean would be Seattle in that game. Castillo has good
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers. Maybe he finally starts turning it around Mets
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: at Arizona.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: This game is gonna be on Fox.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: There are two games on Fox competing with each other,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 4: and neither of them are that interesting, really, Arizona's lost
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: three in a row. They've been playing bad. They lost
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 4: seven of their last eight games, although granted a number
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: of those are to the Cubs. They lost yesterday three
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: to one, so the Mets were able to get the win.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: I think that was an extra inning game. Yes, that
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 4: is correct. The other extra inning game was Colorado and Philly.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 4: I thought that the Dodgers was one, but I think
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers won in like the ninth inning or something.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: All Right, anyway, this game, this is actually kind.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: Of a weird game.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 4: Looking at the starting pitching matchup, Arizona used four relief
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: I mistake, but they only.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: Used lo A Siga for four pitches, so he's probably
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: available again if they want to use him again. Mets
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: used four relief pitchers as well. I don't like Arizona's bullpen,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 4: as you know. Even though arranging it by WHIP they're
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: ranked third, I don't buy it. Their e RA is
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: still in the mid fours. I don't like their bullpen.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: The Mets have a better ERA, at least it's sub four,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: but they ranked eleventh and WHIP but I still lean
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: towards the Mets being the better bullpen. Arizona is the
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: better offense, but they have fallen off to nineteenth. Now
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: the Mets are dead last again though. This Mets offense, yeah,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: they've been struggling. Clay Holmes, though, is pitching for the Mets,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: so that should help them out because he's had a
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 4: good season one point six to ninety array point nine
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: to eight whip. He's been only slightly worse on the
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: road one point eighty five Roady Ray.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: He's pitching in.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: Arizona here though, which is a pretty hitter friendly ballpark.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: But you know, I mean he's he faced the Dodgers
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: earlier this year, did pretty well in that outing, so
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 4: he's looked pretty good. He's given up two or fewer
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: runs in every outing. Thirty one to fourteen strike a
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is not that great. It's a low strikeout rate,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: but twenty eight hits a lot of forty two and
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 4: two thirds innings. He's inducing a lot of ground ballouts, man,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: So that does mean that he might be even a
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: little bit undervalued because he's not a strikeout guy and
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: he gets a lot of guys to just hit balls
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: into the ground. But I tend to not like guys
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: like that if they're putting too many guys on base,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: but he's not really so Holmes is pretty good right now.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: Numbers against Arizona checkout as well. Twenty two at bats,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: four strikeouts, two walks, two twenty seven batting average allowed
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: at five nineteen ops.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: Not bad numbers here.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: Holmes certainly capable of pitching well here, which I think
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: he may do. Merril Kelly is pitching for Arizona. I
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 4: do not know what's going on with him in his
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: return to Arizona. I mean, he's thirty seven, so has
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 4: he fallen off a cliff? I don't know, because I
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: don't think Kelly is really a guy that was, like,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: you know, ever a hard, hard thrower, so, like, you know,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: not a guy that you'd expect, like he just fall
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: off a cliff because his velocity is gone or something
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: like that. But his numbers have been awful. He spent
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: most of his career, I believe with Arizona. He pitched
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: pretty well with Texas last year. He's back with Arizona
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: and he's been awful. Nine point nine to five RA,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: two point three.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: To two WHIP.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: He's unbackable right now. Dude, He's a six point sixteen
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: point six y two home ye r. I know it's
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: in very few starts, though, but he's given up five
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: or more on runs in his last three outings. And
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: that's three out of the four of them. Yes, two
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: of them are on the road against Milwaukee and the Cubs.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: Maybe he'll do better here, but he's walked three or
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: more in every outing. He has more walks than strikeouts
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: fifteen walks fourteen strikeouts in nineteen innings.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: He's walking almost.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: A guy in inning. Plus he's allowed twenty nine hits
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: on top of then in six home runs.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: This is just crazy stuff. Dude. You just can't back
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: this guy right now. You can't do it. But he might.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: Actually pitch well here because he's facing the worst lineup
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: in baseball currently, at least based on the stats, and
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: he does well against the Mets generally fifty eight at bats,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: thirteen strikeouts, five walks. That's not great, but one ninety
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: batting average allowed five to eighty two ops. He's held
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: this lineup pretty much in check, man, So I don't know,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: I don't know what we're gonna get here. Holmes is
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: obviously the more trustworthy pitcher here right now. That's I
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: probably would would have to lean to the Mets. You know,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: the money's not agreeing with me. The money is backing
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: Merrill Kelly. Like, I see no indication that he's going
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 4: to turn it around, man, So I think it's a
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 4: wait and see approach with Kelly, other than the fact
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: that his career numbers are way.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: Better than this.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: So it's almost like he has to turn it around
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: and he's facing a lineup he typically does well. Again,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: so I'll give you that. Uh sixty six percent of
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: tickets on the Mets.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: The Mets being public makes me laugh.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: Seventy five percent of the cash on Arizona. Mets are
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: a small favor here at minus one sixteen. Again, I
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 4: think the Mets have the better story pitcher here and
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: the better bullpend though, so I kind of have to
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: lean that way just because of that. But yeah, that's
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: those are my thoughts. The totals of nine. I mean,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 4: the money seems to be indicated towards the under. It
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: all depends is Merrill Kelly actually gonna have a decent
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: star for once. If yes, then the under first five
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: innings could make some sense there. But I would not
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: want to have my money on that Saint Louis at
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: San Diego. These teams have already played twice and Saint
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: Louis won both games. I don't even know what to say.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: I don't Saint Louis. I don't think they're this good.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: They're starting, pitching has overperformed, in my opinion, their bullpen stinks,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: and they're hitting has been good.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: I'll give you that. Saint Louis has.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: Some young hitters that are doing well, but you know,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I don't know if that's enough
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: to sustain what they're doing here. San Diego used three
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. They did not use Mason, though they
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: didn't really use any of their better relievers, so they're
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: better relievers are available here.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis not a good bullpen.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: They used two relief pitchers yesterday, but obviously San Diego
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: is the better bullpen. They're currently ranked fifth. I think
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: they're debatably the best bullpen. Saint Louis twenty third.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: Not a good bullpen. Offensively, Saint Louis has been good.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: They're eighth in hitting and San Diego is twenty seventh,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: So yes, Saint Louis is the better offense Dustin May
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Saint Louis here. Overall numbers not good
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: five point one five RRA, one point five to three WHIP.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: But of course you know, because the Red Sox traded
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: m to get him. The Red Sox traded uh Tibbs away.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: May was terrible for the Red Sox. He's basically been
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: terrible since his surgeries and whatever. But it only makes
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 4: sense that now he's just pitching well for the Cardinals,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: and he actually is. Even those overall numbers don't look good.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna show you his game log in a minute.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: He's been good for like the last month. He's been
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: bad on the road though, six point one four Roady Ray.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: But because he's spent all those years with LA and
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: this is a pitcher friendly park that he's used to
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: pitching in San Diego, pitcher friendly park, he's pitched there before.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: I don't I really think he's gonna pitch that badly here.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: He's given up three or fewer earned runs in every
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: outing going all the way back to his first two
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: outings of the season, and his team has only lost
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: one of those games, and it was to the Dodgers,
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: where he's still held them with three earned runs. May
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: is actually pitching, okay, twenty five to nine strike out
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: walk ratio.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: That's not that bad.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: But he's allowed forty seven hits in thirty six to
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: two thirds innings, So yes, he's been too hitable. But
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: his command numbers aren't that bad. But his strikeout rate
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: is also down. His numbers against San Diego were kind
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: of mediocre though, in seventy six at bats fifteen strikeout,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 4: seven walks, two sixty three average, allowed seven to sixty ops.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: So that's the other The other side of it is
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: that this is a lineup that is familiar with them
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 4: and they've hit him okay, so you know, I'm not
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: really jumping out of my seat to back May here.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 4: Randy Vasquez is pitching for the Padres here three point
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: two ERA, one point one seven whip Those are good numbers. Surprisingly,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: he's been worse at home four point three to five HOMEIRA,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: even though it's a pitcher friendly stadium. I don't know
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 4: what the deal is there. He got knocked around by
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 4: the Cubs and the Mariners in the home starts that
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: are skewing all those numbers. Overall numbers are not horrible. Still,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: too many walks like he he's always walked too many guys,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 4: but at least it's not as bad as it used
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 4: to be. Thirty six strikeouts, thirteen walks in thirty nine
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: to third innings, only thirty three hits allowed overall. I
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: think he's a pretty decent pitcher. Numbers against Saint Louis, though,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: are not good. In thirty three at bats three zero
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 4: three average allowed, seven to ninety seven ops, five to
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: two strikeout walk ratio, Coupled with the fact that he
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 4: doesn't pitch well in this stadium this season so far.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: You know, you would think that San Diego should bounce
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: back after losing two games in a row. But you know,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: I think I might go Saint Louis first five innings
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: here because I don't want the bullpen. Saint Louis does
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: not have a bullpen edge. San Diego clearly has the
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 4: bullpen edged. If you are gonna go San Diego, full
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: game is the way you want to do it. They're
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: at minus one forty three or so. Money is hitting
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis, though sixty four percent of tickets on San
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: Diego sixty two percent of the cash on Saint Louis.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: I mean I could definitely see.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: May being able to outpitch Vazquez here, unfortunately, so first
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: five Saint Louis is an underdog. Makes some sense there,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: and maybe they're gonna get another overperformance out of one
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: of their starters. Next game up will be my last
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 4: play in the baseball slate. This is Pittsburgh got San Francisco,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: and because it's at San Francisco, you probably know what
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 4: I'm doing here. Under is the play here under seven
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: and a half at minus one oh nine.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: I found it.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: A slightly reduced juice here. I like this one for
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: a number of reasons. San Francisco is a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is a very bad offense right now. Their
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: bullpen is quite good, so that all lines up as
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: being a pitching type of game. San Francisco used three
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday, but I think we could still roll
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: with their bullpen here. Pittsburgh used three as well. I
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 4: don't even know what happened in the game last night.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 4: Didn't really look San Francisco won five to two, so yeah,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: they might have actually used some of their better relievers.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: That worries me a little bit, but I'm still gonna
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: do this one. Yeah, it looks like I don't know,
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 4: it became a non save situation. It looks like though,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 4: I think, yeah, they gave up a run. Killian was
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 4: in and gave up a run late. They were winning
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: by four. It looks like late, so I don't think
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: they did use like they're some of their better relievers there,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 4: or some of their best I think remained out of
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 4: the game. Bullpen wise, yes, I like the bullpens here.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: The Giants, they're ranked fourteenth, but their ERA is one
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 4: of the best. I think they're one of the better
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: bullpens for sure. Pirates are fifteenth, and yeah they're eras
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: in the fours, but they're not a bullpen that's that bad.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: So I think we're okay leaving the bullpen's in here. Offensively,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, Pittsburgh has been decent eleventh. San Francisco has
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 4: not twenty ninth, But again, I think the pitching can
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: kind of counter the hitting, and I don't think either
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: of these teams are teams that really rip.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: The cover off the ball.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh also on the road in a more picture friendly environment. Here,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 4: Braxton Ashcraft this pitching for Pittsburgh.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: He's been good dude.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 4: And I think what we have here is two very
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 4: unheralded starting pitchers. And you know that's where I like
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: to look mostly for unders, even though I know we're
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 4: going with Schlittler in one of the unders here, but
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 4: this one. You know, sometimes I do that. Sometimes they'll
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: go with these pictures that people do know, but this one.
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 4: Both these pitchers are good and people have no.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 3: Idea who they are.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: Ashcraft for Pittsburgh three point two ERA one point eight Whip.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: He's been good.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: He's been better on the road, actually, two point five
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: roady are and his only really bad start was where
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 4: he was coming off bereavement leave and he gave up
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: six earned runs to a Saint Louis team that is
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: hitting pretty well. San Francisco is not hitting well. And
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 4: also he did face the Cubs earlier this year on
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: the road and actually pitched well in that game. Overall,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 4: forty five strikeouts, fourteen walks, thirty one hits a lot
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: in forty one and two thirds innings. There's not a
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 4: ton that you could really pick at there. Those are
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: pretty good numbers. The walk numbers a little bit too high,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: but he's been pitching well. Man and again he did
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 4: have three walks in that one bad start that I'm
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: chalking up to being the fact that he came back
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: from bereavement leave and just kind of had a bad
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: outing there against Saint Louis. He bounced back nicely after
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: that with an outing against Cincinnati's, shutting them out for
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: seven to two thirds, and was extremely efficient with his
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: pitches as well, eighty two pitches and he almost went
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: eight innings in that one, so he was basically he
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: almost averaged ten pitches an inning in that outing. His
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: numbers against Francisco were also good. In a small sixteen
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: at bat sample size. They have one extra base hit
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: a double from Uh Yung Ho Lee uh three strikeouts,
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: no walks, two fifty average allowed, five sixty two ops allowed.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: Ashcraft does have good statistics there In the matchup. Landon
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 4: Roupe one of my favorite guys to play on man
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 4: because uh, that sounds gay almost Yeah, I'm gay for him,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: you know, because I think he just goes under the
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 4: radar because he doesn't throw that hard, but he has
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 4: nasty breaking stuff and he's been good three point one
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: eighty r and one point six whip. We've won a
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: couple of games where we've gone unders with him this year.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure let's do it again. Although yes, his
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: home road splits don't look good. Four point sixty seven
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: homey ram, I know that's not great San Francisco. By
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: the way, he has actually won five of his seven stars,
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: so obviously he's doing something right.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: You know, why is his home why is home number?
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: Is that bad? I don't know.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're all just getting skewed by one bad
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 4: start against the Mets. But if you look at I
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 4: mean it's bad because it's the Mets. I know the
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: Mets can't hit well, but that was only a second
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: start of the season. He had seven strikeouts in one
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: walk in that outing, so it's not like that outing
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: was bad.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, it was just a weird outing.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: I think it's kind of fluky. He did just have kind.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: Of a bad outing against Tampa Bay, but still had
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: six strikeouts and two walks in that one that was
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 4: on the road, four and a third innings pitched there.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: I think Roupe is gonna bounce back. I mean, if
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 4: you take that start out and the Mets start out.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 4: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 4: and if you take the Miami one out, he's allowed
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 4: one or fewer, and all the rest he's got a
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: forty three to sixteen strike out walk razer kind of
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: similar to what we just saw with Ashcraft, and a
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 4: very low twenty six hits allowed in thirty nine to
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 4: two thirds innings, so he is not easy to hit.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 4: Even those walk numbers a little bit high. He's only
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 4: allowed one home run, it was at home against the Marlins,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 4: but whatever. Overall good stuff, and Pittsburgh does not have
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: a lot of history against him. They only have seven
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 4: at bats against him. Three of their hitters have faced
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: him before. They only have two hits, both singles from
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 4: O'Hearn and Ozoon, two strikeouts, one walk, two eighty six
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: average allowed, six nineteen ops. So I think Roupe has
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: some unfamiliarity advantages here against these opposing bats, and they
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 4: haven't really hit him for power or anything like that
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: the ones that have faced him so under is my
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 4: call in that game that is a play. We don't
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 4: see percentages on this yet. The total seven and a
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 4: half across the board. Money is coming in at San Francisco,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: which I like that because that means the money is
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 4: backing Lynn and Route to actually pitch. Okay, here, fifty
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: him or on San Francisco. I mean, so don't want
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 4: to overweigh the starting pitchers, but they do factor pretty
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: heavily into baseball games.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 3: So that's my other play.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 4: We have two full game unders today, all right, now,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: the last game is kind of an interesting one Atlanta
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: and the Dodgers. Like I said, the Dodgers won even
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: though Emmett Sheen came out of the game fairly early.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: Last night.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: Chris Sale outpitched him, but Sale went multiple innings further,
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 4: gave up another run and that was it, and the
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: Dodgers wound up winning the game barely. This is a
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: huge weekend series due between possibly the best two teams
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 4: in baseball. Perhaps both bullpens have been good this year.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 4: Atlanta only used one guy out of their bullpen yesterday,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: Bummer for only nine pitches, so Sale allowed them to
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 4: save their bullpen. The Dodgers you cannot say that about
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: them because she and exited early. The Dodgers used five
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen. That's not good. Uh So
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: Atlanta has a bullpen head year because they're more rested.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 4: These teams are number one and number two in bullpen
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: right now by the way and Whip, they're actually tied
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: with Atlanta's era being better Atlanta number one, Dodgers number
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: two hitting. They were also nonumber one and number two
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: right now Dodgers number one, Braves number two.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: So we have two of the.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 4: Best bullpens right now, two of the best offenses right now,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 4: Dodgers obviously legitimately the best offense, and the starting pitching
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: is interesting. Spencer Stryder made his return in his previous
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 4: outing and he did not do well for the Braves here.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: He went three and a third, but it was at Courtsefield.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: Maybe you gotta give him a little bit of a
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 4: pass for that. And it was his first game back,
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 4: so maybe you know, he was shaky whatever, trying to
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: get back in rhythm.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: He wasn't good though.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 4: He walked five guys, did have six strikeouts, so that's
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: a good sign that he was striking a lot of
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: guys out. Four hits allowed though, and three and a
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 4: third inning, so overall, it wasn't a good start. The
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: question is is he going to bounce back and is
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: he going to pitch better? Is he going to be
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: what he once was? Very difficult question to answer, man.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 4: He was awesome back in twenty twenty two to twenty
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: twenty three, like almost right out of the gate. He
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: started off his career awesome. Twenty twenty four, he got injured.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: Then he came back in twenty twenty five, which was
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: last year, and he wasn't as good. It looks like
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate was still high, but he walked a
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 4: ton of guys last year. He was out of control
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 4: last year, man, Usually that's something you could fix, Like
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: the fact that his strikeout rate was still high, although
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 4: it wasn't as high, his strikeout rate was way higher before,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: so it does mean something. Looks like it was a
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: little bit gone from his velocity, but he was still
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 4: striking out more than one guy an innings. So the
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: walks were more of a problem. Like, I don't know
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: what's going on with that, but that is something you
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 4: could fix, the control issues. But I don't know if
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 4: he's fixed it yet, man. I mean, based on that
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 4: last start against the Rockies, it looks like it's not fixed.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 4: Now he's going up against a Dodger's lineup that will
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 4: make you pay if you do that, but he does
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 4: have good career numbers against them forty one at bats,
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 4: eleven strikeouts, one walk, two twenty average allowed five h
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: six ops. Now, the question is were those numbers back
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 4: when he was an ace pitcher or were they like
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 4: last year even during his rough season last year. Well,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 4: the answer to that is they were not last year.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: He did not face the Dodgers at all last year,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 4: so all of his numbers against the Dodgers are from
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 4: when he was a better pitcher. So I don't think
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 4: you can put that much into these numbers because you know,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: he just looks not as good since he came back
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 4: from injury last year. So I need to see more
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: out of Strider before I can really trust him in
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 4: a matchup like this. And speaking of guys coming back
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: from injury, Blake Snell is making his return for the
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: Dodgers here.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: He was good last year.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: He walked too many guys last year, but he was
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 4: so you know, he was striking out so many guys
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 4: and so unhittable that it didn't even matter he had
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: a two point three five yard or a one point
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: two to six whip. He's been good throughout his career
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: and I mean, it's always been the case that he's
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 4: walked too many guys and he just kind of bears down,
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 4: bears through it.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 3: Whatever.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: He's a pretty dominant pitcher outside of the walks and
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: against the braves. He does have good numbers and sixty
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 4: nine at bats twenty four to nine strike at walk ratio,
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 4: one to eighty eight, batting average allowed, six forty four
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: ohps allowed. I didn't look at what Strider did in
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 4: the miners this year. I could look right now, or Snell,
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 4: excuse me, Snell. Let me see what he did in
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: the minors this year in his rehab. I am looking
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 4: right now. He had a three point three eighty RA.
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: He only pitched eight innings in the miners, had a
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: one whip. He made three starts, but only a total
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: of eight innings ten strikeouts. I don't see the walk
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 4: number here. It must be somewhere. He actually pitched in
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 4: single A a little bit as well, so actually those
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: are his overall numbers. The Triple A was a little
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 4: bit worse. He had a four point five ERA this
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: season in Triple A in two starts, so that's not
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 4: that great, but a point seventy five whips, so he
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 4: wasn't putting guys on base, so whatever, it was only
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 4: four strikeouts one walk. I mean whatever, We know who
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 4: Snell is, dude, unless we think he's completely off, I
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: don't think it really matters. Like I think he's gonna
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 4: pitch fine. The money's coming in on Atlanta fifty three
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets eighty six percent of the cash on them,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: possibly because the Dodgers are just favored way too heavily here.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 3: And minus one seventy.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: I might agree that that line is too heavy on
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers here, but there's also a reason why the
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are favored by this much. The oddsmakers are kind
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 4: of telling you Snell is better than Strider by that much.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: So I don't know, man, But I again, I don't
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 4: like the Dodgers' bullpens set up here. Atlanta does have
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen set up here, So if Strider is
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: able to pitch well here enough to battle Snell, then
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 4: I think the edge does go to Atlanta late in
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: this game because they have the more arrested bullpen. So
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 4: do what you want with all that information, man, but
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 4: I don't have a good read on the game. The
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: money's coming in somewhat on the over as well, total
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 4: at eight and a half. Really, this I think Snell
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 4: will do well. So really it comes down to how
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 4: well is Strider gonna pitch? And that is a huge mystery.
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 4: So I think if you want to go Atlanta first
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: five inning under their teams, all, I think that makes
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 4: sense and just go with Snell to pitch well, but
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 4: I don't have a great way to attack that game.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: Really.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 4: Okay, now let's go to WNBA. I'm gonna give you
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 4: a play in the w NBA. At this time, we
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 4: have four games here. My WNBA reads were not great
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: last night, so you know, I apologize, I guess, but
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 4: I didn't have a strong opinion on any of those.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 4: Dallas and Indiana is going to be an interesting game, man,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: as we have three number one draft picks. The last
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 4: three number one draft picks are all playing in this game,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 4: two of them for Dallas and they're also dating each other,
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: and then one for Indiana, which is Caitlin Clark.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: Obviously, this is on ABC.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: And Disney Plus because Disney Plus wants to promote gayness,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 4: so why not have a team that has a lesbian
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: relationship on it, which is Dallas they're the two wings
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 4: of the Dallas Wings. I like Indiana in this game, though, manment,
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: Indiana might be a little bit under the radar because
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 4: they didn't play as well at the end of last year.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 4: But you remember Caitlyn Clark was hurt, Sylvie Cunningham was hurt.
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 3: Those are their two best players.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: They're both back, so Indiana should be a pretty good
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 4: team this year. Man like, they should be one of
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 4: the top teams in the league. I would imagine as
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 4: long as those two women stay healthy. They're healthy right now,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: Indiana is favored by five and a half here. Dallas
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: should eventually be improved as well, but they have to
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: kind of coalesce. So they have Page Beckers, who was
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: their draft pick last year. Kaitln Clark I think was
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 4: the number one pick the year before that. Beckers was
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 4: number one last year. Dallas did start playing a bit
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 4: better towards the end of the season. Dallas had the
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 4: number one pick again this year though, because they still
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 4: were the last place team and they picked but Becker's
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 4: lesbian lover out of Yukon.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 3: They both went to Yukon.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: Asi Fud no relation to Elmer Fudd Hunting Rabbits I
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: think it's a bad idea, dude, Like, why would you
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: want two chicks.
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: Who are dating each other to be on your team?
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 4: To me, it seems like, yeah, they might have some
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 4: chemistry because they played together in college, but they were
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: a year removed from that, because of course, fud was
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: playing in college last year while Becker's was in the
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: w NBA, So they might have to regain that chemistry.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: But also I saw some pictures of Becker's possibly cheating.
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 4: This is the WNBA, man, We're talking lesbian drama here,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 4: lesbian love triangles, pitting triangle on or sleeve. Yeah, like
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 4: Becker's looks like she was cheating, maybe with another chick.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what the deal is, man, And
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 4: if their relationship falls a party, think that's gonna be
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: a real negative for this team either way you look
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: at it. I think they have to regain some chemistry.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 4: The other players on the team have to gain that
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: chemistry with the new pieces here, So I don't think
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: they're gonna just be great right away, you know what
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 4: I mean. So I like Indiana here, but Indiana does
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: have to kind of regain their chemistry as well, because
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: Clark and Cunningham were both out at the end of
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 4: last year, but they played well without them. They made
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 4: the semi finals in the playoffs without them. But that
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: also tells you Indiana is a pretty strong team.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: I would lay it with Indiana and this one.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 4: This is not my play, though, and we see some
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 4: percentages here eighty four percent of tickets eighty nine percent
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Dallas and Indiana dropped from seven
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 4: and a half to five and a half here.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on with that.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 4: I tried to see if there were injuries going on there,
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: but I don't think there are. So I think actual
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: money moved that line, but I don't know whatever. Yes,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 4: it's in duracial the PMS. You have to fade the teams.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 4: They're no that's easy because they're cycles sync up. So
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 4: you just fade the team where they're all on their
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 4: period together. That's what you have to do. You have
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 4: to chart their menstrual cycles. And then I don't do
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 4: that though, I just do what I usually do. I
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 4: do the normal handicapping. Next game is my play, So
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: we have an afternoon play here in WNBA.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: To kick off my bets for the season. Phoenix and
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 3: Las Vegas.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 4: And if you follow the WNBA, you might know where
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: I'm going with this. This is also on ABC and
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: Disney Plus. Now, if you remember, I had Vegas correct
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 4: in my bracket, they won the championship last years as
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 4: the two seed out of the eight.
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 3: Teams they won.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: The one seed was Minnesota I think, and they fell apart.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 4: They had some injuries, they fell off and whatever Vegas won,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 4: I got that correct.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 3: But now we're gonna go in the opposite direction here.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 4: We're gonna take Phoenix plus nine against Vegas here. And
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 4: why is the well because guess who Vegas played in
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 4: the championship last year? Oh yeah, they played Phoenix in
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 4: the finals last year, So this is finals revenge for
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: Phoenix here man Vegas swept them out of the playoffs.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: Vegas won those games by three and thirteen at home,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 4: and then they won by two and eleven on the road,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 4: So they covered this number in two out of the
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: four and split as far as this number was concerned
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 4: at home as well.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 3: Now I don't know which pieces are still the same.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: I think Vegas might have lost one of their better
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: players coming into this year. I'm not sure, but this
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 4: is still a huge revenge spot. Man, I think people
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 4: are only gonna want to take Vegas. Vegas won the championship.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 4: They beat Phoenix in the finals to do it, swept them,
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 4: so I think Vegas might take Phoenix a little bit lightly.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: This is probably the rings ceremony. You know, Vegas gonna
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 4: be getting their rings. That's probably gonna piss off Phoenix
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 4: and it's probably gonna make Vegas over confident. This is
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 4: the only type of revenge that really matters is who
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 4: eliminated you, who ended your season. So I think Phoenix
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 4: is definitely gonna get up for this game. I don't
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 4: even know which personnel are the same here, but I
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 4: like it. We're getting a lot of points here, let's
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: do it. We don't see the percentages on this yet.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 4: The number's gone all the way up to nine from seven.
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 4: But whatever, we're gonna fade Vegas here. Take Phoenix plus
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: the points. And normally I want to fade the runner
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 4: up because the runner up gets so close and then
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 4: they lose. But that's not what I'm doing in this case, man,
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 4: because the runner up is in a major, major revenge
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 4: spot here, So let's do it.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 3: Phoenix Mercury plus the points.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 4: The next game is Atlanta and Minnesota Minnesota. I'm gonna
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: lean Minnesota here for a couple of reasons. Now, Minnesota
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: did lose some of their players. That's why they're a
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: four and a half point underdog here, but I don't
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: know if that's really deserved. Minnesota, they fell apart during
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. That's because some of their best players got hurt.
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 4: And they still have Collier, who was on her way
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 4: to be the MVP last year until she got.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 3: Hurt, so they do still have her.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 4: So this is I think, still not a bad team, Minnesota,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 4: and you're giving them four and a half points at home.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 4: They're playing Atlanta, and yes, Atlanta was a good team
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 4: last year. I believe Atlanta still has Britney Griner. But
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 4: the other thing is, oh, wait, no, they don't actually
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: never mind, I guess they don't. So here's the thing
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 4: though about Atlanta. They added Angel Reese, and I think
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 4: that's a negative.
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 3: Dude.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: I know she's one of the most well known w
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 4: NBA players. She's a good rebounder, but she cannot she
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: can't score at all. She can't shoot, Yeah, she can't.
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 4: She can't score in a locker room full of lesbians. Man,
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 4: she's that ugly, all right, But no, I don't think
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 4: this is a good move, honestly, Angel Reese. I know
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 4: she was not doing well for Chicago. She seems to
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 4: be kind of a chemistry killer. I think she's a
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 4: very overrated player. So I don't like that move for Atlanta.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: And I think Atlanta, where is Britney Griner Now Atlanta
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 4: doesn't have her anymore? Him, I mean, oh, sorry, maybe
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: Grinder is back in Russia.
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: Griner is on Connecticut now. So Grinder played last night.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: It is on one of the worst teams in the league.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 3: That's great. I didn't even realize Connecticut had Grinder. But whatever.
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: Anyway, I'm gonna lean Minnesota in this one. The money's
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 4: not agreeing. Atlanta's sixty six percent of tickets seventy four
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Atlanta. I just don't understand
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 4: why Atlanta would be favored by this much, even though
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 4: I know I said that about well like Golden State yesterday,
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 4: like them being favored looked weird, but I knew why
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 4: because Golden State put a lot of money into that team,
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: and I told you Golden State was actually good and
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 4: they actually did win in covery yesterday Atlanta. I just
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 4: think that this is a move because they picked up
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: Angel Reese and whatever.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 3: I just don't buy it. Minnesota is still not that
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 3: bad of a team.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 4: I would probably take the points, and then we have
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: Chicago at the Portland Fire.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 3: Is that what they are?
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 4: I feel like every team is named the Fire. I
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: feel like, what is it the I don't know, there's
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 4: some other team called the Fire. I think in MLS maybe,
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I don't fall soccer.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: Whatever, it's a dumb name. Also, it's hilarious when the
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: West Coast has all these wildfires. Portland fire sounds like
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 3: a historical event. You know, you remember that fire that
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 3: burned down half the city. Dude, Chicago playing against them too,
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 3: Chicago Fire.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 4: Oh man, this is on NBA TV, even though it's
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 4: a WNBA game.
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 3: Give me a break, man.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: And Chicago they were pretty bad last year and people
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 4: were gonna be like, why is Chicago laying five and
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 4: a half here?
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 3: You know?
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 4: But I actually probably would lay it with Chicago. I
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 4: think Chicago's gonna be better without Angel Reese. I'm sorry,
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 4: but I'm not a rece fan. Obviously, I think she's
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 4: the most overrated player in women's basketball. She's not good.
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 4: Chicago picked up Cardoso. I think that's a good move.
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 4: They got her Diggins van der Slout was injured last year.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: She's one of their best players. I think she's back,
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 4: although she's not playing tonight, but she is gonna play
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 4: this season. But yeah, she's not playing it tonight's game,
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: but that's gonna be. That's gonna help Chicago when she
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 4: comes back as well. I don't think Chicago's that bad.
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 4: And I think again, getting rid of Angel Reese, I
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: think is actually a positive. Portland is just like I
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 4: said with Toronto, and Toronto did losethough it was a
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 4: close game last night. Portland is the other expansion team,
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 4: so they went through the expansion draft where they pick
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: up the scrubs that teams don't protect in the draft.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 4: Sometimes that means the team's gonna be overrated or excuse underrated. Actually,
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 4: sometimes that means that team's gonna be underrated because it's like, well,
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 4: this team is a bunch of scrubs, but I don't
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 4: want to play on them. But then, on the other hand,
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 4: like I said with Toronto, even though I did lean
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 4: to Toronto yesterday because Washington sucks. But the chemistry might
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: not be there yet, right because you pick all these
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: players from different teams, they're not used to playing with
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 4: each other. So the team has to get their chemistry going,
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. It's not gonna happen right away,
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 4: So I would lay it with Chicago in that one.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 4: All right, let's go to hockey, all right. Reese is
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 4: a joke, yeah, because it's the race rivalry. Clark keeps
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 4: getting attacked by non white players on the court. There,
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 4: don't get my channel nuked or whatever. Clark is way
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 4: better than Reeese. Especially Clark is just way way better
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 4: on the offensive side of things. Carolina at Philadelphia, this
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: is not gonna be where I have my play These
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 4: games are on TNT, True TVHBO Max, just like all
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: the other NHL playoffs. Carolina is up three to zero. Now,
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 4: it's happened before in hockey. I think four teams have
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 4: come back from three to Oh, it's not gonna happen
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: in this series. Carolina, they're just the better team, man.
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 4: They play a similar style to Philadelphia, but they're better
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 4: and more experienced at it. Now, does that mean Carolina
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 4: is gonna win this game. Definitely. No, I don't really
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 4: think so. And Carolina is laying almost minus two hundred here,
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 4: and I believe in the previous game they were laying
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 4: about minus one sixty. So obviously the price is high
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 4: on Carolina here, and I think it's too high. Again,
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 4: usually a lot of times you do see the team
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 4: down three to zero.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 3: This is hockey, dude. Teams do not give up.
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 4: Like in the NBA, a team down three to oho
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 4: is gonna give up because no team's ever come back.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 4: NBA is not as manly as hockey is. These hockey players, dude,
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 4: they'll play with broken arms and shit, they don't care.
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: They're gonna go out there and give you an effort
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: until like you have to basically kill a hockey team,
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 4: you know, to get them to not put an effort,
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: you know what I'm saying. So I think Philadelphia is
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 4: going to give effort here. I think it's gonna get physical.
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 4: Can Carolina win this game? Yeah, Obviously they've been the
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 4: better team. They're favored pretty heavily here. They've been a
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 4: pretty decent road team as well. They're gonna win the series.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 4: But I do think Philadelphia is gonna give a fight here.
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 4: And I think Carolina's favored by too much because again
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 4: they were favored, what was it, minus won sixty something
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 4: in the game three, Game three, let me see, Yeah,
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 4: minus won sixty six. Now they're like minus two hundred. Yeah,
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 4: I mean that's just too much of a line adjustment.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 3: You know, you look at the game.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 4: Carolina did win a lot of the stats in the game,
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 4: They had more shots in the game despite being winning,
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 4: you know, being ahead for most of the game. Philadelphia
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 4: did out hit them though, and did win the face
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 4: off battle a little bit. But yeah, I just think
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 4: the line.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 3: Is just too high.
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 4: I think there's probably some value looking at Philadelphia here.
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 4: It's not gonna be a play, but eighty four percent
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 4: of tickets, only seventy four percent of the cash on
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 4: Carolina tot is it five and a half six ish
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 4: or no, five and a half juice to the under heavily,
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 4: it's almost five. It's a low total, man, So that
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: again helps Philadelphia. Like you could take Philadelphia on the
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 4: puck line here plus one and a half and get
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 4: them to just come within one goal.
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 3: They could definitely do that.
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 4: That's how I would play that game, probably and they
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 4: did do that in one of the road games in
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 4: the series.
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 3: They were able to cover. They sent one of the
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 3: games to overtime.
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 4: So I don't think Philadelphia is going down without a fight, man,
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 4: That's what I'll say, even though, yeah, they.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 3: Might lose by one.
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's certainly a possibility, but if it's a
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 4: one goal game late, you have to worry about the
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 4: empty net.
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 3: You'd basically need them to like have it tied late
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 3: in the game. We'll see.
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: The other game will be my play, though. We are
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 4: going to zigzag this and it looks way, way, way
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 4: too easy to play Colorado here. We're gonna take Minnesota
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 4: as an underdog plus one two. I know I talked
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 4: about how looking at the regular season series, it was
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 4: a split series, but Colorado clearly outplayed Minnesota during the
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 4: regular season. Colorado is the better team. They're going to
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 4: win this series. But this is a two to zho
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 4: series going back to Minnesota. Man, I think this is
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 4: a zig zag spot. Nobody's gonna want Minnesota because Colorado
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 4: has been the best team in the league. Minnesota lost
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: nine to six and five to two in the first
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 4: two games.
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 3: Who's gonna want to play.
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 4: Minnesota here, Nobody but Minnesota's gonna have the adjustments to make.
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 4: And this is an interesting scheduling spot too, which is
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 4: pretty rare because usually they're gonna have two days off
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 4: when they're switching venues. Right, So they played on Tuesday,
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 4: Usually that means they're gonna play the next game on Friday.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 3: And I think because Minnesota.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 4: Because the Tea Wolves were playing at home, and I
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 4: think they played in the same arena. I'm guessing the
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: Tea Wolves played on Friday, so the Wild could not
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 4: have their game the same night, so they had to
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 4: move that game to Saturday. I think that's gonna help
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 4: the Wild. Dude, they're gonna have extra time off, you know.
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 4: I talk about this when a team. Things are not
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 4: going well for a team and they have an extra break,
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 4: they have extra rest. That usually helps that team break
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 4: that losing momentum and fix things. It's like having a bye.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: Whereas for Colorado, everything went well for them in the
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 3: first two games, so that could serve as a momentum stopper.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 3: Now that they have two days off or excuse me,
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 3: three days off, excuse me. You know, it's as opposed
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 3: to the normal two days off. Yeah, I think it's bad.
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 4: I think it's a momentum stopper for both teams, which
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 4: is going to help Minnesota. Hear, Minnesota was pretty decent
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 4: at home, although yeah, Colorado was good on the road too.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: You know, I'm not gonna put too much weight into that.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 4: I do worry a little bit about Minnesota's goaltending because
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 4: it looked like Valstaed was the guy.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 3: He played well.
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 4: Against Dallas and then they took him out of the
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 4: game against Colorado in that first game where he gave
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 4: up that barrage of goals, and I don't think they
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 4: should have taken him out. I think they should have
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: let him. But Minnesota switched to Gustafson in Game two.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 4: So that does worry me a little bit because you
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 4: don't want to not know who your goalie is, and
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 4: I honestly don't even know who Minnesota is gonna have
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 4: as their goalie today. But I just think the situation
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 4: puts us on Minnesota here man and down.
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 3: Two to zero at home.
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 4: That's a good zigzag spot in both the NBA and
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 4: the NHL. Usually that home team puts in a huge effort,
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: and that's especially if you know the if Game two
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 4: was like some sort of outlier that you know, just
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 4: was kind of misleading, and I think we could say
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 4: that it kind of was. Minnesota had more hits than Colorado,
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 4: though they lost the face off battle really bad. But
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 4: Minnesota had more shots and more hits in the game.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 4: And yes, more shots was a product of them being
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 4: down in the game, but Minnesota played better than this
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 4: score makes it look. Colorado had an empty net goal
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 4: at the end. The game was closer than that. Colorado
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 4: also scored two hour play goals in the game, whereas
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 4: Minnesota didn't score any. So two power play goals plus
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 4: an empty net goal, that was the difference in the game.
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 3: So when the teams were when the teams were even.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 4: You know, five on five, the game was two to two,
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: you know, when the teams are five on five, So
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 4: that game was definitely closer than it looked on the scoreboard.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 4: Colorado is getting the money, but they do look very
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 4: public To me, it looks way too easy, dude, after
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 4: we've seen Colorado just look absolutely dominant throughout the whole season, uh,
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: dominant in this series so far, it looks like a
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 4: really cheap price to play Colorado. It looks like the
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 4: books are begging you to play Colorado here at around
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty.
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 3: It looks so easy to play them. That is not
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 3: what we're gonna do.
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 4: They have eighty six percent of tickets, ninety one percent
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 4: of the cash. No, we're gonna take Minnesota on the
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 4: money line. Uh at around plus one twelve, plus one
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 4: ten whatever total in that game is high again at
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 4: about six six and a half.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 3: By the way, I.
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 4: Think I would lean on to be honest, because both
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 4: games have gone over that number so far. Obviously, if
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 4: you like the underdog, you're kind of expecting them to
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 4: slow the game down a bit whatever, like keep the
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 4: game closer, keep it in checks. So I think Minnesota's
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 4: kind of correlated to an under in that game. You know,
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 4: even though Colorado does play well defensively too, these are
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 4: good defensive teams, man, So the offensive onslaught has been
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: kind of ridiculous. And of course I gave out the
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: under in game two, and the only reason it went
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 4: over was that empty net goal, so fuck that, you know,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 4: So that was a little bit misleading. Yeah, I think,
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 4: especially after the long layoff, having an extra day layoff,
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 4: I think that means the offenses might come out a
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 4: little bit slow, so under or under first period kind
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 4: of makes sense in that game as well. Okay, NBA,
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 4: we're gonna have one play as well, and it is
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 4: in the first game up in the afternoon in the
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 4: Eastern Conference Finals. Oh, we have a team down too well,
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: returning home?
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 3: What am I.
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 4: Doing here in Detroit and Cleveland on NBC and peacock, Yeah,
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 4: you know what we're gonna do. We're gonna do it, man,
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 4: nobody's gonna want to do this after Detroit's won both
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 4: games so far as three point favorites. And I told
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 4: you Cleveland was gonna be favored by more at home
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 4: because the odds makers are telling you Cleveland is actually
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 4: the better team over Detroit, which is also why Detroit
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 4: was only a very small favorite to win the series,
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 4: only because they have the home advantage. Cleveland is favored
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 4: by more. And I think this line is exactly what
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 4: I thought it would be. We're gonna lay it with
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 4: Cleveland minus four and a half. And now I know
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 4: we could have gotten a better number, which would have
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 4: been awesome. Uh, the line looked like it opened at three,
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 4: which was low again with Detroit being a three point
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 4: home favorite Cleveland minus four minus four and a half
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 4: is exactly what I expected the number to be, So
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 4: I think we're still good laying this number. It's like
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 4: four and a half everywhere. But I think you're gonna
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 4: get a huge effort out of Cleveland here.
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 4: They lose the first two games on the road, and
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 4: Cleveland has been a just an extreme home team in
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. Man, even back when they were like playing
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 4: those series against the Magic the last couple of years
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 4: in the playoffs and whatever, the games were so lopsided
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 4: towards the home team, and that's been the case again
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 4: in Cleveland's playoff games so far. The home team has
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 4: literally won every game and covered every game as well,
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 4: except for one game where Cleveland didn't cover. They won
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 4: by five and didn't cover as a nine point favorite,
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: and we did take a loss on that one against
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 4: Toronto in Game five, but that's the only game where
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 4: the home team didn't both win and cover. And the
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 4: home team has won every game in Cleveland's playoff run
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 4: so far.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 3: So I like Cleveland for that reason. Nobody's gonna want
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 3: Cleveland because the odds makers are. But the oddsmakers are
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 3: telling you Cleveland's a better team, but nobody's gonna want
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 3: them because Detroit. As you know, again, Detroit's two to
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 3: zero in the series, they're the one seed. Nobody's gonna
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 3: eight points with Cleveland here, You know what I mean.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 4: It's one of those lines where the line is telling
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 4: you something completely different than what the normal person would think, Like,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 4: how could the higher seeded team, the better seeded team,
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: be an underdog as big as this when they're.
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 3: Already winning every game in the series.
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 4: Right, So that makes me like Cleveland seventy three percent
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 4: of ticket seventy seven percent of the cash on Cleveland.
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 4: So I think the money's agreeing with us here. I mean,
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 4: I just I agree, just because the spot makes sense.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 4: And yes, there are some outliers that we can look
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 4: at from the previous game. Look at the three point shooting.
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 4: In Game two, Detroit hit fifty percent of their threes.
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 4: Cleveland hit twenty two percent of theirs. Detroit was plus
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 4: twenty one from three point range. They hit seven more
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 4: three pointers, and they won the game by ten. So
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 4: that is an outlier. Detroit is not going to shoot
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 4: fifty percent from three again, most likely Cleveland is known
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 4: for hitting, not necessarily hitting threes, but they're a.
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 3: Decent shooting team. They're an offensive team.
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 4: They're not gonna to shoot twenty two percent from the
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 4: field again and twenty two percent from three excuse me,
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 4: but forty two percent from the field probably is going
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 4: to turn around as well. So I think the biggest
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 4: regression points here are the shooting. I think Detroit is
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 4: in line to regress, especially from three point range. And
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 4: we saw what Detroit looked like in the Magic Series.
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 4: Detroit's not a good scoring team, dude. Like, if you're
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 4: able to take Cunningham out of the game a little bit,
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 4: Detroit doesn't have that many other scoring options. So Cleveland
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 4: has a way more diverse offensive team. So I think
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is going to shoot better. Yeah, Detroit won the
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: rebounds by a little bit. I still expect Cleveland's bigs
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 4: to somehow start winning out in the series, though, Like,
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 4: Detroit's not that good on the interior, man, So I
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 4: don't know. Even though, yes, Detroit is the better defensive
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 4: team and getting points here, I get it. That is
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 4: the one thing where normally, yes, I like the better
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 4: defensive team getting points, but Cleveland's on the ropes here. Man,
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 4: If they go down three, series is over. They got
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 4: the urgency. They've been way better at home during the playoffs.
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 4: I think they're gonna win, and if they win, I'm
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: pretty sure they're gonna cover as well.
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 3: It's a slim margin.
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 4: There were it would be, you know, it's such a
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 4: slim margin where they would win and not cover.
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 3: I think they're gonna win and cover. Uh.
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 4: Cleveland decent at home twenty seven and fourteen on the season.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 4: Detroit is way better at home than on the road.
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 4: By the way, they were still pretty good on the
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 4: road twenty eight and thirteen, but they had single digit
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 4: losses at home. Dude, So Detroit throughout the season was
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 4: a better home team than road team, and now they
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 4: got to go on on the road. Totals at to
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: eleven and a half, which.
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 4: The over kind of makes some sense here, even though
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 4: the last the last game actually only landed at what
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 4: is that.
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 3: Is that? Two oh four?
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 4: Am I doing the math right there? The over I
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 4: think makes a little bit of sense here too. I
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 4: think a high scoring game helps Cleveland more. Detroit wants
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 4: to muck the game up and slow it down, but
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 4: I think the home team is more likely to control
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 4: the pace. Cleveland wants to speed it up and score more,
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 4: so I think that kind of makes sense as well.
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 4: I think Cleveland and the over are probably correlated in
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 4: this game, so I would probably slightly lean over as
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 4: well here, but I like the side better money is
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 4: indicating on the over. With seventy eight percent of tickets
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 4: and fifty two percent of the cash on the under,
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: total is mostly two twelve and a half out there,
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 4: so it has gone up a little bit already from
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 4: two eleven or two eleven and a half. Yeah, he
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 4: lost one point of value there, but I think there
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 4: might still be some value in that over. But we're
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 4: gonna lay the points instead, even though I know we
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 4: lost a little bit of value on that as well.
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 3: And then the second game.
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 4: Is a two to oh series going back to La
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 4: Oklahoma City at La okac is up two oh. You know,
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 4: unless the Lakers somehow get back into the series. I
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 4: don't think Lucas coming back, dude, He's not coming back
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 4: in this game. Oklahoma City is an eight and a
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 4: half point favorite here. However, it is one of those
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 4: games where.
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 3: A team's down two to oh coming back home, and
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 3: I think if if La is gonna steal a game
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 3: or anything like that. In this game.
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 4: I think it might be this type of spot down
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 4: two zher because if they fall down three to zero,
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 4: probably they're just gonna, like, you know, just not bother
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 4: bringing Luca back.
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? Three to zero, you're dead
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 3: in the NBA.
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 4: So if that happens, I don't really think LA is
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 4: gonna put up a huge fight if they get into
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 4: that scenario.
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 3: So I think this is gonna be the game where
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 3: they go all out. This game's on ABC.
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 4: By the way, Oklahoma City covered each of the other games,
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 4: winning by exactly eighteen. But if you look at the
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 4: previous game, LA was actually winning.
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 3: The game two at halftime.
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 4: They actually played all right in the game, and Oklahoma
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 4: City shot pretty well fifty six percent from the field.
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 4: There weren't really any huge outliers here, but it is
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: interesting that LA only lost the rebound battle by two,
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 4: so the Lakers did actually play better in that Game
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 4: two than it looks like on the scoreboard. So yes,
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: I think if LA is gonna play their best game
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 4: in the series, it is going to be this one.
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 4: I think if they win any game in the series,
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 4: it will be this one. You know, even if they win,
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 4: I kind of think Oklahoma City is gonna wind up
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 4: winning the game in five or winning the series, excuse me,
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 4: in five, but whatever. I would lean towards taking the
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 4: points with the Lakers in this one, But the money
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 4: seems to disagree. Sixty ticket seventy percent of the cash
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 4: on Okase eight and a half seems about right based
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 4: on the fact that okay See.
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 3: Was fifteen and a half.
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 4: Still, I mean, the oddsmakers are basically moving every line
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 4: when it goes to the other home team.
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 3: They're, oh, we just.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 4: Lost the board here. They seem to move every line
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 4: by seven. Yeah, everything's off the board now. Moving all
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 4: these lines by seven is kind of weird to me,
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 4: but you know, because I don't think three and a
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 4: half is an appropriate home court advantage in the NBA,
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 4: even in the playoffs. I think it's closer to two
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 4: to two and a half. But I don't you know,
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 4: I'm not an odds maker, so do whatever with that information.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 4: But oh sorry, I didn't take the Cleveland play off
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 4: the board there or off the Banders.
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 3: Anyway. I leaned slightly to the Lakers, but I don't
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 3: want to play the game.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: This is.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 4: This has been a stay away series for me. It's
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 4: a lopsided series. Dude, Okay, see, is just the way
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 4: better team. So what can you do?
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 3: You know, the Lakers were I think a bit better
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 3: at home than on the road though, so there is that.
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 4: But the Lakers were pretty bad as an underdog throughout
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 4: the course of the season up until like the late
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 4: part of the season.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 3: They did play a little bit better. But Luca is
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 3: still out.
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 4: Like I said, okay see, I think it's still without
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 4: Jalen Williams.
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 3: He's a game time decision. Actually he's you know.
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, there's such a deep team it doesn't matter
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 4: that much if he's out or not. But he might
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 4: actually play in this game, so we will say.
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 4: I don't really have much else to say about this game.
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 4: The total can't read the market on it now with
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 4: the site being down, both sites being down.
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 3: Two eleven and a half is the total there? You
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 3: know that.
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 4: It seems almost low to me, But I don't know,
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 4: because the last game went way over that. The last
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 4: game landed whatever that is two thirty two. I guess
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 4: maybe an under makes a little bit more sense in
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 4: this game. I mean LA tends to play over types
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 4: of games though, because they're not that good on defense.
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 4: So you know, I don't really think LA loves playing
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 4: under games. But whatever, I don't have a good feel
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 4: for that total. Anyway, that's gonna do it, man. My
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 4: play is today one more time. We have a lot
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 4: of plays major League Baseball. We have a split run
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 4: line money line bet on the Cincinnati Reds. We have
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 4: under full game Yankees Milwaukee under the seven and a half.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 4: Get that hook man. Seven and a half is a
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 4: key number.
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 3: I think it's still available.
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 4: Same thing goes for under in Pittsburgh and San Francisco
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 4: also seven and a half.
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 3: That's my other baseball play.
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 4: We're getting involved in the NBA with Phoenix plus the points,
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 4: NHL Minnesota money line, and NBA.
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 3: We're gonna lay the points with the Calves.
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 4: I think they're the team I've laid the points with
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 4: the most and I think I'm one and two in
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 4: those games so far. So I apologize, but let's even
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 4: it out tonight. Man, Let's do it. That's gonna do it.
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 4: Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram.
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 4: You can subscribe to me on Twitter and that helps
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 4: me out tell everybody about this show. Please get it
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 4: out there. We're just totally stagnant. We're getting no subs
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 4: or lost a couple of subs recently.
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 3: We only have the regulars. Man, I want new faces
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 3: in here.
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 4: Even if they bashed me and they don't like what
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 4: I have to say, my results speak for themselves. There
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 4: you go, last thirty five days, sixty one, thirty three
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 4: and five.
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 3: You try to do that.
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 4: It's not easy to beat the books, man, I.
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 3: Should be acting.
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 4: I've bet some of those plays personally, but not enough
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 4: of them. But when I was actually betting full throttle
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 4: and I was backing it with my actual job, you
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 4: know money I was from my job. I was betting
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 4: literally every one of these plays, and I'm handicapping them
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 4: the exact same way.
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 3: So I endorse every play I give out here.
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 4: But yes, like subscribe, listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 4: That all helps me out. Covered in you because my
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 4: yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out Patreon,
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 4: dot com, slash and learn to toad support me there.
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 4: Loser cast every Tuesday night comedy show. One of the
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 4: best that exists right now?
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 3: Is it? I don't know? And the g Spot Giants podcast.
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 4: Ben has been talking to me about doing a show
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 4: to recap the draft at some point this weekend.
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know, we'll see.
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 4: And then I am going to do an NFL win totals.
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 4: I got three win totals that I like, and again
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 4: just like last year, I have two unders and one
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 4: over and it's very similar to what I did last year.
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 4: So I'm gonna do that season win total show probably
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 4: even regardless of if ESPN brings out that game again
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 4: or not. But I'm waiting to see if they bring
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 4: out that game. But I will do that, and like
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 4: I said, World Cup is coming in next month, I'll
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 4: do I'll at least fill out a World Cup bracket.
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 3: But that's gonna do it. Thank you everybody. I thank you,
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 3: sir Charles.
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 4: I think you're biased, though you think too positively of me.
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 3: I am not. I'm not worthy of any of that.
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 3: I appreciate it. Peace.
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something to somebody for show.
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 3: Put the glass.
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me.
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 2: No hold on.
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 3: Hold on letting, no.
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, let me for that bites, but
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 2: it don't get the crown.
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now