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NFL Draft Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorite, the podcast part of the Action Network,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: proudly presented by Bett three six five. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my BFF, my companion,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: my compadre professional better Simon hunter HEADO.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Soymon, Hello, lot Shot. How are you doing? Brother?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Dude? Look at us, Look at us. We are live
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: on AMP right now. We are live on YouTube right now.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: We will be live on both of those channels for
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: every single show from now until the end of time.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: You and I together in our white Favorites hoodies, which
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I know Matt Mitchell is wearing as well. I think
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: it's cute that we decided to all wear our hoodies
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: today for our first live show on the YouTube. We
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: don't mean planning.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're slowly making a cult jet, slowly making a cold.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: It just takes three and right now. Yeah, that's what
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: we have. Listen, We're going to get deep, deep, eat deep,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: deep into the draft. There is some serious betting chaos
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: going on. Aaron Rodgers to the Jets happened yesterday? How
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: was that impacting the draft? How is it impacting futures?
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about that the draft is proving
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: to be through Will Levice, the greatest epitome of the
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: chaos that is betting the draft, the rumor mill that
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: is the draft, how technology and communications and social media
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: influence the Draft. We're going to get to all of it.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is proudly presented by
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: up with promo code action to get BET three six
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  Speaker 1: y five's exclusive sign up offer. Bet one dollar on
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  Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older. Offer is available in Colorado,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia. Gambling problem call or text
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler. Also, before we get to the convo,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: you guys have heard us talk about game Time so
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: much on this podcast. They're the fastest growing ticketing app
• 2:49
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• 2:52
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• 2:55
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• 3:01
  Speaker 1: on tickets to all of these. I'm actually going to
• 3:05
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• 3:09
  Speaker 1: What am I going to find? Let's see Teta. Oh
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: look at this tonight, I can go see the New
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: York Mets. Get in price Simon, Simon, what do you
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: think they get in prices for the New York Mets tonight?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Very good baseball team depends how's pitching, Simon, Just give
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: me an answer.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: I'd say thirty dollars seven dollars.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I can get in to see the New York Mets.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Great baseball going fast because of the pitching clock for
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: seven dollars. No matter where you live, download the game
• 3:42
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• 3:44
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• 3:46
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: download the app and undercode favorites for twenty dollars off.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So download Game Time today. Last minute tickets lows price guaranteed.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Dude.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Let's start with Aaron Rodger. Okay, trade finally goes through yesterday.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Nominal impact on everything you know, it's been expected. So
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: whatever Aaron Rodgers' value to the Jets was gonna be
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: is built into whatever price that's been going around already.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: What are your initial thoughts on Aaron Rodgers to the Jets.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Now that it's officially happened, I.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Guess from the fans that I'm really happy for Jets fans.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: I don't mean this is probably the best quarterback they've
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: ever had. I mean this is exciting for Jets fans.
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: This is their super Bowl, right, they finally got the guy.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: It's gonna take them over the hump. But from the
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: betting perspective, it's nothing. It's a shit number, the team
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: that's overrated. Maybe next year I'll get some down on
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: the Jets, or you know, if they start one to three,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: I'll take a position on the Jets. But they feel
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: like Denver last year. It's just it's gonna be all
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: hype and no subsistence. I feel like Miami's the bet.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: I mean you talked about that earlier. Yeah, that's gonna
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: be the play. You know, the Bills expecting me better
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: than they were last year, just because I think Josh
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: Allen will be healthy, you won't to have that arm issue,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: and you know he's got a fire under his ass.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: That's a motivated man right now. So in that division,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: I love it for Jets fans and it's exciting because
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: you actually have a chance now, where before you really
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: did it with Zach Wilson or Joe flaccol Right, that
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: was just yeah, that was fun. They're winning some games
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: around the year, but me and you never really took
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: them serious as an actual contender for Super Bowl. Now. Shit,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: if they start three to one, shed the rodds will
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: probably go down to ten to one, nine to one,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, they'll be an all hype teams.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So they're about twelve to one right now at bet
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: three sixty five.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So to me, Jets fans is exciting because usually
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: you guys just have nothing to look forward to. It's
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: all hope and gluster and that's over by week two.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: This year, it's gonna be a little different. So exciting
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: for them, but as a better nothing to do here,
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: no bets to make on this team.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So the other thing I'll note is bet three sixty
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: five has a boost for Aaron Rodgers to win MVP
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: from plus sixteen hundred to plus eighteen hundred. I was
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: reading Bill Barnwell this morning on ESPN dot com. I
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: love Barnwell, He's super smart, and he had an interesting
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: take on the Jets because look, The reason why everyone
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: is so excited about them for next year is because
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: their defense was so dominant. Right, they got Garrett Wilson,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: that's great. They'll get the running back from Tennessee or
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: from Iowa State who injured his knee, and was Bryce
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Hall who was on the path to sort of have
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: a Rookie of the Year kind of year. So he
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: does have pieces around him on offense, but it's really
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: about the defense. And I feel like the market is
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: so exuberant about the Jets because it's the Jets, because
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: it's Aaron Rodgers, that it's kind of not taking into
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: account the fact that there's always regression in these situations.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: So let me give you a little stat that I
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: stole from Barnwell. Last year, the Jets jumped from thirty
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: second to fifth in defensive DVOA. Teams that make those
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: kinds of leaps typically drop back the following season. This
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: is from Barnwell again. Recent example is the Commanders, who
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: jumped from twenty seventh to third in DVA in twenty twenty,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: falling back to twenty seventh the following season. One other
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: thing to consider, the Jets benefited from playing second and
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: third Street quarterbacks, And we talk about that all the
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: time when we're betting on teams during the season. During
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: their seven and four start, they played five games against
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks who weren't the team's preferred starter if everybody was
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: healthy and available. So we're talking about Brett Rippon, Trevor Simeon,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Mitch Trubisky, Jacobe Brissett, Skyler Thompson. So I don't know, man,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: can I interest you in a Jets under nine and
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: a half wins at plus one hundred.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep waiting because I'm just gonna hope Jet
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: fans beted up like they did last year. Like last
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: year they got really lucky, like those couple of coin
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: flip games. I mean that Browns game really sticks out right.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: That game they're down thirteen points with a minute to go,
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: Joe Flack will pulled out a win. Those are kind
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: of things that they totally flip over under. So to me,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: I don't hate it, chat if you grab it now
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: nine and a half, I'll just keep waiting hopefully get
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: a ten. I can't see it dropping below nine and
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: tell you that much.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: So I kind of feel like they've sussed out a
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: little bit of an opportunity here. Oh so, because everyone
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: is going to be thinking about the Jets are set.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: The Jets last year fourth one of the league's healthiest defenses,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: one year after being the fourth most injured defense. Again, like,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: there's going to be some regression on the Jets defense.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: And also when you go after you've given up the
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: draft picks that you've given up, there's going to be
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: some sort of residual impact on the roster and how
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: you can build depth on defense. So last year we
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: were anti Jets and we bet the under and it
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: bit us. I think we're gonna do it again.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: I know it's gonna be tough though, where even if
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Rogers isn't what he used to be, isn't the MVP level,
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: he is going to be so much better than anything
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: they've had in the last ten, ten, twelve years, I
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: mean not since Sanchez that they had a guy that
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: you actually can think, Okay, this guy can actually win
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: a game. So you know, I still think a lot
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: of last year was Rodgers being hurt and having no weapons.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: This team has tons of weapons Jets. So that's my
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: only hesitation here is just like this guy is stepping
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: into the same situation Brady stepped into which is a
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: really really good offensive weapons with a pretty good defense.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: Like you know, as much I want to shoot on
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: the Jets, Sauce is probably on the best winners I've
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: seen since Revis. I mean, he really is that next level.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: You almost not that he almost got it, but he
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: was at the point where people are talking to him
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: for Defensive Player of the Year. So pretty special team.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: But you're right, Chad, if it gets to ten, how
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: do I not take that under in that division? It's
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: just that's too high a number for them.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Listen, if you're listening live on AMP, if you're watching
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: live on YouTube, do not forget. You can send us
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: questions in the chat for either either one of those things.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, who's also wearing his favorite hootie, paying attention
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: to all of it. He's a man on a keyboard
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: sending us notes and slack. He's producing. He's producing as
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: much as he possibly can right now. So we've been
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: talking a lot about the draft. Where is your head
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: right now? How are you feeling? You've been a roller
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: coaster of emotions the past couple of weeks. As the
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Bryce Young chatter has gotten louder, and that's that's against
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: what you need to happen to a significant degree.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all no sleep, Like I just have not
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: slept at all. It's one of those where, I mean,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: you've had kids, so when your wife's pregnant, the baby's
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: doing any minute. I think most men wake up every
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: hour or two and just either check on their wife,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: get up and pace for a little bit, then laid
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: back down. It's like that never ending feeling of just anxiety,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: like you know what's coming and you got you just
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: know you like you can't really help what's coming. That's
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: how I feel with the diraft, where it's like I
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: might sleep an hour here or too. I can't stop
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: checking my phone, can't stop calling guys, can't stop listening
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: to rumors. It's it's like a fun week, but it sucks,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Like you know, when you don't sleep and you just
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: feel gross. That's how I feel right now, Like I
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: just feel gross, like everything tastes gross. Uh, it's it's
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: the worst. Humans need sleep, so you start going a
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: little crazy, and you know when the will Levis stuff
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: starts happening, because obviously.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, hold on, like we gotta got
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: touch into that.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: So like say, I was good, sound asleep. I had
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: to get up at whatever. We had a meeting at
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: five am, Hawaii time, so I was like, all right,
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I'll set my alarm clock, get up at whatever it
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: is four four thirty for our meeting. I literally touched
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: my pillow. I fell like at ten o'clock and my
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: eyes were open at midnight to just never any amount
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: of calls and text So just been up all night.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: It's just one of those where when the market moves,
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: people go crazy. I think you know that being in
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: the sports media industry, it's just a week of hearsay.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: It's never any amount of your say. So it is.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: It's a bit much, Chad, but I love it. It's
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: just a fun week.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: All right. Couple things here. Number one, you've got a
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: strange sense of what it means when your wife is pregnant.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I don't remember doing any of that, but I do
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: remember being up every hour last night because I ate
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: too much and drank too much and went to bed
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: too late. So that's the feeling when I'm mostly am
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: uncomfortable at night.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: Well, Chad, you're a scientologist. You're kids grown in a laboratory,
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: so you didn't meet your kidn't tell you? Was like,
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: so that makes sense. I laughed through the pain.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I'm a real person. Let's talk about this Will level
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: stuff because we have to frame it. And and Luke
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: swayin Vegas refund who has just been crushing his draft
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: coverage and sort of the on the on the Action
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Network podcast which everyone should be listening to. Uh, and
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: obviously he did it with Nick Carrisco UH a couple
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: of weeks ago, but actually was yesterday. He's been tracking
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: all this. So the Will lets story is at some
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: point today a someone in Reddit posted that Will Levis
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: is going number one, that he's been telling people around
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: him that Charlotte is taking number one, taking them number one.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Shortly thereafter, his odds to go number one moved from
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: forty to one to seven to one. And remember, over
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: the past couple weeks he was not even considered to
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: be like top two on anyone's board, right, so this
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: post goes viral. The reporting of the odds move causes
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the line to drop even further. People look into the
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: reddit user, it's shown that he is likely a troll.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: So the question is right now, Levis odds are currently
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: anywhere from plus two fifty to plus eight hundred, obviously
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: a massive gap. But Bryce Young, who has had his
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: odds go as high as minus three thousand, we've talked
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: about over the past couple of weeks, are now down
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: to minus seven hundred. What are we doing here, Simon?
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Why would anyone want to bet this market? Explain this
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: to people.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: I've been trying to tell people though, this is this
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: is the whole point of why we bet. What the
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: public doesn't thing is going to happen. It's like, no
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: one really knows they can move the odds all they want.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: In the end, they really don't know until the GM
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: or the owner of Carolina Panthers tell them exactly what
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: they're doing. They don't know they're letting the money in
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: the market dictated. So how does the money in the
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: market dictate these picks? Chat? We've seen it all the time.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: If a well known name puts out a mock, it
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: moves the market, and you know, you can say what
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: you want about this Reddi kid. Pros have been taking
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: a position on this Levis guy, Like I've talked to
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: multiple pros who keep saying this guy's going to Houston.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: This guy's going to be a top five pick. This
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: guy's going to be a top four pick. I don't
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: see it. I get I've graded the kid. I watch
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: all his film. Man, it's just a weird time. This
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: draft is really weird, Chat, and we keep talking about this.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: If there is no consensus number one guy, it's gonna
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: be chaos. And it felts like we kept talking about
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: the Baker draft, and that's what this draft feels like.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: It's like, I mean, Sam Darnold all months, for multiple months,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: was talking about being the number one pick. He got
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: up to a minus one thousand at one point, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: then we talked about that Baker Mayfield news came out,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: and then by Thursday morning, Baker Mayfield was a favorite
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: to go to the Brown. So me and Chat I
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: both have opinions on this draft. To me, the Levis
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: thing is just crazy, Like I mean, Matt Mitchell's losing
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: his mind about it. He doesn't get it at all.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: He was talking about him being a bum months ago,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: so it cracks me up thinking about what he's thinking.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: But from the betting perspective, I love it because it
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: just I had my doubts about the Bryce Young thing.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: I kept telling you. I even when I was up
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: to minus twenty five hundred, I was like, I guess
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: he's the pick, but I don't believe it until I
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: hear his name called and see it actually happen. I
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: just can't believe a guy who's five ten one eight
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: is going to be a number one pick. So I
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: talked to a bunch of pros over the night. They're
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: happy about it. They love the public movie this number.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: So the way they we all talked about it goes
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: okay on Reddit. There's millions of people on Reddit. They're
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: gonna see this post, right, So say just twenty thousand
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: of these people each bet one hundred dollars, Right, that's
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: how much you're limited to on this Levis bet. That's
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: a lot of money being portant to the market at
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: really weird hours. Right. You said it got posted either
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: in the morning or last night, whenever it was. The
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: book makers. They're gonna wake up. The big time guys
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: are gonna be like, okay, we need to move this number.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: So we saw a big overreaction. The market is starting
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: to settle a little bit, right, like you talked about.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: So to me, the Levis thing gives me hope in
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: the sense it won't be I need anyone with Bryce Young.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: You've been in one pick. Literally anybody but Bryce Young
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: will be amazing for me. I will I need desperately
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: to If it's well Levis, I'd be amazing. But I'd
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: be pulling my hair out if I was a Carolina
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: Panthers fan. I mean, I'm sure you as a as
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: a Bears fan, you lose your mind too if you're
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: a drafting this kid. So yeah, chat, this is as
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: someone that loves betting the draft. This is as as
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: it gets. It's nobody knows any people are gonna do
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: all their little mocks. They're gonna make all their predictions.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: No one knows. It's all based off of their own information.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: They're hearing from different people. So that's why it's the best.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: We spend our entire existence as people in the betting space.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: You at the very high end, me, you know, just
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: below you at the at the next level, a very
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: high end. I don't know why you're laughing. And all
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: of our time is spent looking for an edge. Our
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: entire lives, everything we do, it's spent looking for some
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: edge in some way. That's how you win. That's how
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: you get by right. And so you've talked about this.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Luke has talked about this, framing it as it's the
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: only test where you know the answers. We don't know
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: any fucking answers. This feels like misery to me. Why
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: is this a Why is this something you want to
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: invest six figures in when it feels like there is
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: so much unpredictability you can't find any edge.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Because when I hit, I hit big. And that's what's
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: so much fun about I mean, we tall all the time,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: but that Trey Lance that was that's gonna be one
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: of my biggest ones ever and like it's funny thing
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: back that I'll ever forget. You wanted me to do
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: a live hit with you about Trey Lance being the
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: third pick, And I was driving down to AC and
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: I pulled over and say it was just I don't know,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: say it was thirty minutes. I mean, you're setting up
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: doing a little quick hit. And then I got down there,
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: the number moved from plus six hundred to plus three hundred,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: and so this was even before we even posted anything.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: And then once we posted, it dropped all way down
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: to I think whatever, plus one hundred by the time
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: the draft even came around. So it's one of those
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: where there is good info Like that's why I try
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: to be very patient about it, because good info does
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: eventually come out, But some years you're not gonna get
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: the right stuff because you don't know the right people
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: that know the right gms, don't know the right owners.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: Like that's why this year, I mean, it's truly I
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: had tip to the Panthers. They've been really smart about
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: everything they've done. Like every week they're saying the right
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: things to try to not just throw people off the scent.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: But they knew what we talked about Bryce Young Houston.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: The Texans won in Bryce Young, so they talked all
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: week about how great he was without ever saying, no,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be our pick. You know, people are like, well,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: the NFL doesn't want them to leak that stuff. I
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: think we knew Turl Larrence and I'm gonna pick chat
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: what like two months before he was actually the numer
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: one pick by the Jaguars. The NFL doesn't really care
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: that much. Right, people are going to tune in. It's
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: a spectacle. It's it is what it is. So to me,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: it's it's interesting that nothing has been leaked, because stuff
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: gets leaked this week. But if Will Levis is really
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: the leak, I mean some pros you can say you want,
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: the public got on that, but someone was on it
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: because that numbers moved a lot, like you just talked about,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: it went from sixty to one just twelve hours ago
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: to what it's down to now, which is like plus
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: two fifty at some books. So I think that's why
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: I love betting. It is because of that, where it's like,
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: if you get the right info and if you hit
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: it right, you can make a ton of money on
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: the draft. It really is like a thief to these
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: books because there's no system they can build to stop it.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: They're just going off rumors and what they're hearing. So
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: it is one of my favorite things to bet, but
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: it's also, like you just said, it's very dangerous. You
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: can lose a lot of money on it if you're
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: listening to the wrong people.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: Will Levis right now bet three sixty five plus five hundred,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Bryce Young minus nine hundred. Again, a week ago, Bryce
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Young was probably minus three thousand. Will Levis was nowhere
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: close to plus five hundred. He was closer. He was
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: lower than Will Anderson I think at that time, and
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Will Anderson now is like two hundred to one. I
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: know now to go number one. And Evan Abrams, our
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: director of research, has said this, if you've got four quarterbacks,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: you've got no quarterbacks. And I think that's what is
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: making this draft so interesting.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: The next question becomes, we are forty eight, you know,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: fifty hours from fifty four hours from the draft. Let's
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: say we don't really know who's gonna go where what
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: bets are making us the most comfortable right now? I've
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: got ideas, but but like when you look at this,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: where are you feeling? Okay? This is the one where
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: I do think I know what's going to happen.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: I'm on the few that I've just stuck to that.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: I do think the quarterbacks will be the ones to
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: go up top. Like I know that Will Anderson to
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: you know, they're suposed to Arizona and all these rumors
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: boy him going to the Cardinals at pick three. I've
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: been saying it feels like for two months the Cardinals
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: aren't going to make that pick unless their GM is
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: a total idiot. There is no way they should be
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: making that pick. Of number three. They have to trade down.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: They just they need so many more assets, and they're
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: in a division where, yeah, the forty nine ers are
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: really good, the Seahawks are really good, but you need
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: to start building around caller Murray're giving the guy all
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: this money. You just can't make a pick there. I mean,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: there's no one player fixed to this team. So to me,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: I still think there'll be one ghost quarterback, two goes quarterback,
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: three ghost quarterback, and four ghost quarterback. And it just
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: lines up where I either think it's gonna be Tennessee
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: or Vegas that trades into that little three spot and
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: makes the pick there. It just makes sense these teams
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: that want a quarterback of the future, that's a nice
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: spot to move into. Both of them have a quarterback
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: Tennessee as Tannehill, Vegas still as Jimmy Garoppolo. So those
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: are both teams where you can draft the guy and
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: let him sit for a year or so. Will Anderson
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: over three and a half, I couldn't bet enough on that,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: I really couldn't. I mean it was one of those
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: bets Ip making over the weekend, and we've seen it
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: now that if they do stay there, if the Cardinals
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: do stay there. It seems like they're gonna take this
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: offensive tackle from Ohio State. So to me, you know,
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: it's one of those where I'm making this bet off
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: a lot of knocks, But then it's also based off
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: of what teams are saying, and it seems like a
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: lot of the scouts, especially the ones in Arizona, they
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: didn't they weren't all in on will Anderson. It seemed
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: like there was other guys in the mix. So you
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: can still get his over, but it might be juiced
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: up down over minus two hundred and minus two fifty
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: just because people have been betting it. But I still
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: like that at over three and a half. I just
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: I don't see Arizona taking them. I don't see Tech
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: the Texans taking them either. I just people keep saying
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: that Texas will take a quarterback at twelve. I don't
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: see any of these guys making it at the top ten.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: It's just it just seems like every team at different
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: grades on these quarterbacks, and each team is gonna be
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: willing to trade up to get one of these guys.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: This could go down as the greatest draft in history
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: or the biggest bust draft in history. I don't think
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: they're the middle ground for this draft, because if you're
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: saying people are not sold on Will Anderson, they're not
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: sold on Bryce Young, they're not sold on Will Levis,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: They're not sold on Anthony Richardson. Like there's no surefire consensus,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: which the last couple of years we have felt like
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: we've had some surefires, right Like Sauce Gardner came in
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: and people thought sauce Gardner would immediately be what he was.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence got drafted, people thought he would turn into
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: what he turned into this year. It only took longer
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: because he had such an epic imbecile as a coach
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: in his rookie year and was surrounded by so much incompetence.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: So there's no surefire in this draft unless unless unless
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: it's Jalen Carter.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Well, again, he's got a lot of question marks too,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: But I think Chad, it's honestly, I'm just I'm one
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: of those people where I try to keep it as
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: real as I can because everyone's in the mindset of
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: this is like we talk about this is like before
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: week one, where your team doesn't suck yet it's all happiness,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: It's all hype, and that's what this draft is like.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: Everyone's like, oh, well, my team's drafted this guy. There's
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: no way he's gonna be a bus and that's just
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: not the truth. And when we talk all the time
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: first round quarterbacks, I think it's over sixty percent now
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: end up being nothing's right, it's a very small number.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: So you know that draft of Mac Jones, Trey Lance,
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence. I said it on this show,
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: if you're lucky, there'll be one All Pro out of
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: this draft and maybe two Pro Bowlers. So right now,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: what it's looking like, Chad, you're feeling pretty good. You
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: got justin Fields. He looks like he's gonna be a
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: Pro bowler. Trevor Lawrence looks like he's gonna be a
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: Pro bowler. Zach Wilson's on his way out of the league.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: I mean he's already been replaced. Trey Lances apparently on
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: the trading block. So I mean Mac Jones as well,
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: could be out of town. Like it's one of those
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: where it's getting weird now with the Patriots. So I
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: hate being that guy because I know exciting all this
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: is for teams, but it's just realistic. So that's why
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: the Anthony Richardson I've been pounding the table for him
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: for so long. It's just he has the most upside
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: if he goes to the right team. The kid's twenty.
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: He turns twenty one and may twenty second, so you
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: put him on the right team. This kid, when he
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: signs his new contract in five years, he'll be twenty
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: six heading into his prime. There's other guys on this list.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: This Will Levis will be twenty nine when he signs
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: his next contract. So that's something that I weigh into
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: all this where it's like, Okay, I want to take
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: the young athlete with a ton of upside that I
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: can mold into why I want him to be, rather
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: than the guy that's already is what he is, Like
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Bryce Young. Yes, this kid has an incredible amount of talent.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: I think he is what he is. I just can't
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: see him building that much off off of it. Like
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: his body, he doesn't have the shoulders for it, Like
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: there's not much of a body frame to build on,
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: and there's only so much you can build on with
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: his body, Like he's five ten one e. How much
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: arm trains do you think you can put into this
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: kid's body. It's just not possible. So a lot of
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: that goes into when I when I build out and
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: model these quarterbacks. And that's why I like I like Anderson.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: I think Anderson's a really good player. But I would
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: like you just talked about Carter. I know Carter's issues
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: off the field, I would still take the kick because
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: I just think his his floor is so low. Like
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: this guy, you draft him, you're just gonna make him
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: your nose tackle or whatever, your detackle, and he's just
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: gonna change the whole the whole vibe of your whole
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: team will be changed with this guy and that defensive
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: line because he's gonna eat up two linemen every time.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: Like that's a big deal. So it's just the way
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: it is, Chadwick. At this time of year, you're just
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: gonna hear so much negatives about guys because of we
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: talk all the time. It's like, who has the best
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: agent right now? In my opinion, the best agent is
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: Well Levis, Like, holy shit, is this guy's age? You
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: really taking this to another level? I mean, hop on
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: Twitter today you never will not see this guy's name
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: and his biggest night of his life is in two days,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: so it's just a big, big week for agents and owners.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Tell him lies, all right.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: There's also a big conversation happening right now at running
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: back Jean Bijon, Dijon Robinson and Jamiir Gibbs from Alabama,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: and Bijeon has been the guy. We talked about him
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: a lot last week. Everyone has talked about is potentially
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: being the best overall player in this draft, but all
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: of a sudden there's conversation that Gibbs could overtake him
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: as the first running back taken. So here's my question
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: for you.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Do you bet?
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Do you bet over one and a half total running
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: backs to be taken in the first round of the draft?
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: I bet it, I'll be honest. I'm one of those people.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: I did just because of Peter King's mock draft, Like
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: he put it out there and I was like, okay,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: this has because I like the kid. But we talked
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: about time teams just don't take these running backs in
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: the first round. Now, when you break it down like
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: he didn't make sense, like the Eagle is Detroit, there's
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: a bunch of teams I want a running back at
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: the end of that first round that they don't get
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: Robinson in the top ten, why not take him in
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: the back end. The guy can plast block and catch
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: up on the backfield. I mean, we talk all the
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: time these bam are running backs. They do eventually break down,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: like all running backs too, but for the first five
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: years they're pretty damn good. I mean, Derek Henry's first
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: five years were pretty incredible. So the whole notion that
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: a team would trade back into the first round and
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: take a running back that seems a bit far stretch.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: But there are teams at the back end of this
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: draft I could say to see taking a running back there.
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: So I like a chat over one and a half
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: running backs taking their first round. I think it was
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: plus one ten Peter King put out as mock. I
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: think a dropped down on minus one fifteen minus one
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: twenty in most books. Now, I'd still take that number
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: at bet three six y five, But it's it's tough
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: where you know that's just gonna be the public play, right,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: the public gloves betting overs. We've seen the QB market
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: move the over four and a half has just been
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: absolutely pounded, So same thing with the running back. I
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: can see it get up to minus one thirty, minus
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: one forty by the time this draft starts on Thursday.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: It's just a lot a lot of people talking about
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: two running backs in the first round.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: Now, all right, so I follow you in the app.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: I want you to break down right now the picks
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: you've posted in the app for the draft, so people
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: can know exactly what you're betting.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, I can tell you that off the top
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: of my head. I know for a fact I bet
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: the z Flowers under we talked last year. I just
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: love that. Bet the sky is a five nine, five
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: to ten speed stair that plays on the outside. There's
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: so many different ways you're gonna be able to use
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: this kid. So you know, I didn't know where he
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: was going to go. Now, talking to Evan, it felt
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: like it made sense that when he said he would
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: go to the Seahawks A picked twenty, that just makes
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: sense to me. You can still get it a plus
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: number two, just because there's just so many teams that
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: not that this is a bad wide receiver class, but
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: this is this is a dawn wide receiver class. Like,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: let's be honest, this isn't that great of a group.
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: So it's one of those where it's making sense. Its
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: plus no, it's plus money. But I think it's one
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: of those that when he gets drafted, i'd say the
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Seahawks do take him where a team does around there,
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: like you know Green Bay now might be a team
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: that might take this kid. Like there's a bunch of
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: different teams that need a wide receiver. It would just
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: make sense for a team to reach and take this
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: kid because there's not that many good receivers in this draft.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: So that was definitely when I made her away. Robinson
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: be a top ten pick. Chat, I love it. I
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: love this pick so much.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: He's just do you think it'll be Howie?
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because I have someone I really really
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: am well connected with on the Eagles, and I thought
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: all week it was going to be him, and I
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: would say two weeks ago, this kid this he honestly
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: made it seem like it was definitely gonna be Robinson,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: Like if he was there, I picked ten for the Eagles.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: It was either Ham or Carter was the guy that
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: really wanted a ten. Carter seems like that's gone. We've
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: seen his over under drop from seven and a half
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: down to six and a half after he met with Detroit.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: Apparently Campbell absolutely loved him, So that makes sense, right,
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: that Campbell loves the kid. Detroit would take Carter now.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: It wouldn't shocked if the Eagles did take an old alignment,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: but it just doesn't make sense for an Eagles team
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: that's to win now mode. It's just the Robinson pick
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: makes so much sense for this team. It's literally, you know,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: not that this kid's gonna be j Peterson, but that's
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: the upside you have here, like the Saquon upside. Like
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: it's just I hate taking running backs as high. But
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: when you're a team like the Eagles, where you already
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: have the old line, you have an aging defense, like
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: our D line is pretty damn old like a lot
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: of these guys, this is it for them, right, So
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: you know, I argue with a bunch of people about it.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: But the skuy I talked to, he seems like the
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: Eagles are gonna go D line just because they're line
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: is getting older. So if you want to make that
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: a bet, I understand it. But to me, I'm in
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: on Robinson. Do you think the Eagles are going to
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: take them? I still think the Seahawks are outside chance
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: to take them at pick five. We talked about that
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: sixty six to one to be a top five pick.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: I know it sounds crazy people, but the Seahawks think
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Gino's legit. They paid them. I've talked to a couple
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: of different scouts for them, and they love Robinson like
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: they can't go to how good this kid is. So
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: they're from a point of view of, well, we'll do
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: the Hurts move. We'll take a quarterback there. If one
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: of these guys we like slips the five, they're gonna
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: take a quarterback to Seahawks. I talked to multiple people
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: within that organization that like a quarterback of that spot.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: If not, they like Robinson, and if Anderson's still there,
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: they're gonna take them apparently. So the Seahawks are in
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: a great spot, dude. They're going to trade out right,
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: get a good bounty on in trade back, or they're
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: gonna take a really high level player at that pick five.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: So the Robinson pick just makes sense. We saw the
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: the number move too. We did our show. I think
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: this was plus one twenty five. Now he's minus you
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: know one twenty minus one thirty be the top ten pick.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: It just seems like it's either gonna be those teams
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: up there, Detroit at picked six to take them, or Atlanta.
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: We've heard a lot of chatter about Atlanta take them
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: at pick eight. So again, just a lot of teams
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: on the board that would take them. The only team
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: that would shock me would be your Chicago Bears to
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: that that would shock me if they took them there,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: just because you know, you guys have a lot of
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of holes. You still need to fill an
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: offensive line and defensive line. So I could see that's
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: that's gonna play for the Bears. So that's the one
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: team I'm pretty sure will not be taking Robinson.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: But the other teams, it makes no sense for the
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Bears to take a running back. As we've been saying,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: the theme in the way rosters are constructed right now
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: is very much running backs are worth taking in the
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: first round if you are one running back away from
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: having a roster that is ready to make a run.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: The Bears are not one running back away from making
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: a run. They are many. No, no, don't give me that, No, no, no.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: No, no. I got high hopes.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: The Bear don't have anyone in the front seven that
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: scares anybody.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Say with me though, ding Dong, the Witch is dead,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Rogers is gone, brother, Yeah, but wide open spaces.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: For a running back to run all over the field, that.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: Would just be fun. To have Robinson with justin fields.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: That'd be an insane combination. It would.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: I feel like the Bears have built up a lot
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: of good will during acquisition season with the way they've
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: managed the cap, the way they've managed their draft assets. Yeah,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: to not draft Jalen Carter or to not draft somebody
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: who can play left tackle would send the fan base
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: into such a tizzy. People would lose their minds. If
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: you drafted a running back top ten, they would absolutely
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: lose their minds. That's what I think about the Bears now.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: It's all the staff from Matt Mitchell. It's make me
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: feel pretty good. Good. Since nineteen two or more running
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: backs have gone in the first round thirty five out
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: of forty three drafts. So that's that's pretty pretty insane people.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: If you think about betting those odds, feels like it's
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: it's pretty good bet. The bet two runningbacks going in
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: the first round.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Current odds for bijon team Atlanta plus two fifty Houston
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: six p fifty Philly seven fifty, Washington eight point fifty,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: New England, Dallas plus twelve hundred, Tennessee, Detroit plus fourteen,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Chicago fifteen to one, Chargers eighteen, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Seattle not
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: on that list. That's interesting. Here's the question from and
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: by the way, Jamiir Gibbs, he's currently being mocked. The
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: average pick is thirty two point three.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: So only thirty one picks in the first round? Though,
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: is Miami last?
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: I know, it's just outside the first round. That's awesome.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Right now, we've been talking about Will Anderson. Tyree Wilson
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: has been making a lot of noise moving up. Yeah,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: and so the truth is, while we've talked about Will Anderson,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: the first defensive player drafted, Tyree Wilson right now minus
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: one twenty five at bet three six five, Will Anderson
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: plus one hundred.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: Again the shot out to Vegas Refrunt. He was on
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: this a month ago, was talking about this guy could
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: move up a draft ward to think he gave him
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: out in our slack group at nine to one. I
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: didn't agree with it because I just couldn't see it happening. Now,
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: everything you hear it seems like Houston loves this guy,
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: and same with Arizona, so you know I could see
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: it happen for sure. I just again, I just see
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: it going quarterback quarterback, and that's where the Seahawks fall
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: into us. I think they're gonna be their first team
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: to decide who gets defensive player drafted. That's why I
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: know it sounds crazy, but still I still have a
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: little bit of money on Jalen Carter to be the
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: first defensive player take and just in just in case
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: the Seahawks don't take a defensive player, there they go
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: offense that I picked six, Detroit will be the first
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: team to take a defensive player. I think they just
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: love Carter. So I've seen a couple of books having
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: that fifty to one for Carter to be their first
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: defensive player just because he's just had terrible press this
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. Yeah to me, Chad, it might
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: be seven teams. Now I have to check my notes again,
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: but I literally talked to seven different teams that they
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: have him off their board. So I means they would
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: even take Carter if he fell out of the first round.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: That's how bad they think his personality is, his worth, ethic, everything,
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: so just something to keep in mind with people that
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: you know, I might be alling on Carter, there are
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: a lot of teams that are not. And that's definitely
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: a scary scary thing. You're talking about teams giving these
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: guys and millions and millions of dollars in a five
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: year contract.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: It's a lot currently sixteen to one at BET three
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: six five to be the first defensive player taken is
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Jalen Carter? All right, I think it's one thing you
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: said about Za Flowers. Wouldn't it be funny if the
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Packers decided they're taking a wide receiver in the first round.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Didn't Evan go over it with us a couple of
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: weeks ago where he noted how they have basically spent
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: every first round draft pick on an offensive lineman, a
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: defensive lineman, or a linebacker during Aaron Rodgers' career, and
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: then the second he leaves, they take a wide receiver
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: to help his bet his replacement.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: I know, but I was one of the few people
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: that I think it's smart. Like I thought what they
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: did all those years was smart, which was if you
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: have an all pro, all world QB, you can find
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: really good receivers in the second third rounds, which is
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: what they did. Like they found a Jordan Nelson, they
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: found a DeVante Adams, like they found these guys in
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: the second third rounds that turned into all pros because
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: they had Rogers. So I got where people are coming
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: from that they never supported him, but it's like, holy shit, people,
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: didn't he go to four NFC Championship games and then
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: he lost them, three of them at home. I don't know.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: I think that. I think that Green Bay did it
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: pretty well. Again, I'm all in on the Bears, but
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: the Jordan Love stuff is exciting, like I think all
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: of us. I mean, it sounds fucked up, but Packer
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: fans we all want you guys have a shitty quarterback.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: You literally went from Bev far to Aaron Rodgers, Like
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: no one should be so lucky. So if Jordan Love
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: is the truth, it's gonna hurt. But they got a
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: decision to make. I think they have a week left
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: and they have to pick up the fifth year option.
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: I think it's twenty million dollars for Jordan Love. So
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: at times they are changing green Bay. I mean, you
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: look at that team on paper chat. They are bad
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: at so I would agree for the first time in
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: a long time. They probably should take a wide receiver
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: with that first pick in the first round.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: The last time Brett Farvar Aaron Rodgers weren't playing quarterback
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: regularly for the green Bay Packers. I was watching Dan
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: magic Kowski in my college dorm room.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: What is that like? Ninety ninety three?
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: I think it's ninety one.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: Holy shit. Yeah, green Bay has been spoiled.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Honest to god, Damn, that is insane. One more staff
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: from Crack researcher Evan Abrams before we get out here,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: get out of here. We were talking about the New
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: York Jets season win totals earlier. It's currently at nine
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: and a half. Sitting at nine and a half, you're
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: hoping it will go up a little bit. The last
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: time since twenty twenty so the past twenty three years
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: that the Jets have had preseason double digit wins since
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: two thousand, twenty eleven, and that year they finished eight
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: and eight. I'm starting to like that. Jets under nine
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: and a half. Last year we bet Jets under I
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: think six and a half.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: Six and a half. Yeah, And Rogers in his career
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: is a double digit win total. He is three and
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: five to the under when it's greater than ten. So
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: that's another stat that benefits off as if it's ten.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: Once again, if it's ten, that's just gonna be automatic underslam.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: We're finding ear lean reminder. The Favorites Podcast is proudly
• 43:10
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• 43:30
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler. Also Matt Mitchell reminding us Green
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Bay hasn't gone running back, wide receiver or tight end
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: in the first round since did you look at his
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: slack yet, Simon? Because if not, I will, oh two
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: thousand and two, twenty one years.
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: How you about how many championship games they've been to
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: compared to these other franchises'. I get where people are
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: coming from, but it clearly works.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: Any bet you make right now based on where you
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: see the market moving before Thursday, I got I got one.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: I'm just thinking about.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: I can't stop doing what I keep doing. But I
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: keep betting more money on CJ. Stroud to be a
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: top three, top two, top one pick, and I keep
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: betting money and INTHI you, we're just going to be
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: a top two, top three, top four pick. So I
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: still it's gonna hurt Chad. I still don't think Bryce
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: Young's number one pick. I still think it's gonna be
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: someone else. So uh yeah, well we'll know even more Thursday,
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: our pregame show before the actual draft. I can't wait
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: for our Thursday show.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: I would bet over four and a half quarterbacks in
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: the first round right now.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: How dare you're going to get to Matt and Mitchell?
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: Though I don't care about Matt Mitchell.
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably it's probably the right bet. I can't
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: fucking do it, man. The hooker thing I keep, I keep,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: I keep, and a bunch of pros are on that
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: bet with you, Chad, A lot of pros. I know
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: we're on that bet. They've really moved that number. Can't
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: do it that. You're telling me a kid who just
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: comeing off a major knee injuries twenty five years old
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: is going to be a first round pick. I really
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: can't wrap my head around it.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: Five years from now, are we talking about Hendon Hooker?
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Are we more likely to be talking about Hendon Hooker
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: as a great quarterback who has led his team to
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: three consecutive playoff runs? Or Will Levis?
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: I would say Will Levis because I just I hate
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: that guy more. I hate him even more than the Hooker, honestly,
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: So that's I will not be shocked if he has
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: a great career, just because I'm so down on him.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: All right. This has been the Favorites podcast from the
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: Action Network, probably presented by Bett three six five. We
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: are back eleven a m. Eastern Time on Thursday with
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: our final live show before the draft. Thank you for
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: joining us live on YouTube. Thank you for joining us
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: live on AMP. I am Chad Milman. He is Simon Hunter,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: producer extraordinary Matt also extra extra producer extraordinary. Charlie desterco
• 46:04
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• 46:09
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