Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Weekend Rally?📈Crypto Market Update

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Weekend Rally?📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today, let's get into a market rally. Could it be
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: impending over the weekend. We'll break it down for you.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: My name is Small Barrel. Welcome back to the show.
• 0:06
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• 0:29
  Speaker 1: get you guys into the crypto game. One thing that
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: was a piece of news today that came out that
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: was kind of interesting to me is this announcement from
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Morpho on coinbase where now Morpho is doing lending. So
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: you guys have talked about lending, but most of the
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: time it's you taking out loans. Now you can actually
• 0:48
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• 0:52
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• 0:55
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• 0:59
  Speaker 1: by that in terms of what they're paying on USDC
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: to get going. PC inflation came in FES preferred inflation
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: measure rises to two point seven. This is in line
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: with expectations. That's why I think the market was a
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: little bit soft on it and why we might be
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: seeing a little bit of an uptrend here right now
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: in the markets as we close on Friday. Other things
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: that are happening. Of course, is still quite a bit
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: of pressure coming in from the Trump administration over on
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: share Pal, and this is all in relationship to he
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: wants higher cuts basically is what Trump's after. But I
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: think we are in for two more quarter basis point
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: cuts coming in toward the end of the year. If
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: you look at polymarket, you can kind of see it
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: right there, holding in at a twenty five BIPs about
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent probability. So looks like this is going
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: to happen in October. And this is the end of
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: October for that FOMC meeting. So just to let you
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: guys know, October could be a bit of a volatile
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: market because there's still a lot still pending for what
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: we'll see in the market structure. Because remember we got
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: a shutdown potentially looming here, and if you look at that,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: there is other things that are playing into this. One
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: is the dollar index jumping after a strong economic data dent.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: This of course could cut rate hope or rate cut hopes,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: and I think this will play into how Chair Pale
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: actually pulls the trigger in the next two FOMC meetings.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Let me go to a clip real quick, because this
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: kind of explains it a little bit more. Take a look.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Some of the narrative around this is that you know,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: the dollar really hasn't been able to break lower, even
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: though we saw US yields kind of crater in recent weeks,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: and therefore that kind of an asset which can't go
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: down means it's probably right to go higher the short
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: term market. What's interesting now is what that means for
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: other assets. I think it could finally mean this time
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: for goal to have a short term correction. Does it
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: mean risk off for stocks? That's where a bit of
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: the debate is. My view would be, this is not
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: necessarily a risk negative catalyst. More broadly, unless it's a
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: very fast or quick dollar bounds, and that's a seem
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: to be the case of the moment. So you're looking
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: for external risk to have to be black swans, which
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: means we can't predict them by definition. Now, the other
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: chance is an internal dynamic, as in just the price
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: becomes its own self fulfilling narrative. And that's what you're
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: kind of seeing a bit in crypto at the moment.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: You're getting a little bit of shake out and some
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: of the alternative coins because they just went too far
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: too fast. Maybe that spills over to some of their assets.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: And that's where the dollar story comes into this, because
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: if you get a bit of a dollar bounce fueled
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: by people looking for a new theme to play and
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: the fact that you know yields may have bottomed for now,
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: and the fact that we've got month then rebalancing kind
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: of feeding it, maybe that could feature to other assets.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: But I'd be reluctant to put too much kind of
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: a conviction on that idea that we're gonna get a
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: self fulfilling price lad move, which means your base case
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: has to be that the current trends continue for now
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: until we see that external catalyst.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: All right, So external catalyst, everybody's looking for that one
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: thing that everybody is asking us in that is have
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: we topped?
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: Is this a.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Signal that we've started to top out on both crypto
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: markets and also maybe on the S and P five
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: hundred gold as he just mentioned all time high. I
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: want to go to Mark Newton because he talks about
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: not only the PCEE data that's coming in, but he
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: also talks about the government shutdown. Take a look.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: Look, I think the consumer has proven pretty resilient throughout
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: all this. Look, the spending numbers are much better than expected.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: PC data is in line. I don't think that causes
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: the FED any sort of concern. You know, most of
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: the things that people think are going to cause really
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: issues with the market really haven't materialized. That being tariffs,
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: at being inflation. That's one thing to really you know,
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: continue to pound the table on. You know, even with
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: regards to a potential government shutdown, we look back at
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: twenty thirteen, twenty eighteen, you know, most of that has
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: been really short lived. It's not really anything materially that
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: ever causes a serious sort of sell off, and normally
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: that's resolved.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So all right, so shutdown, I think it's going to happen.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: You know, I was on with some guys in DC
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: this morning, and they were all leaning in on that
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: this most likely will occur. In fact, polymarkets showing a
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: seventy percent probability that we're going to get one by
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: October first, right there, So that in itself, and if
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: you thought, well, let's go in and do a little
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: research over on perplexity to see what kind of SMP
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: performance that we've had over government shutdowns in the past.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I'll throw out the seventies, but if you go in
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: here into the nineties and in its two thousands, really
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the twenty thirteen sixteen days out we basically had a
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: little bit of a push upward. January of twenty eighteen
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: three days push upward, and then even December and January
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen had a thirty five day shutdown that
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: was the biggest, and that actually the market went up
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: ten percent, so plus two points. So I think the
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: point here is to back to what Mark was saying,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: is that this is probably not going to have much
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: of an effect on markets in general, and I think
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: maybe the crypto market might follow along on that. All right,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: so you guys have been asking, is this the top?
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Are we frothed out? Are we going to see a
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: little bit of a sideways action and slow down movements.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Mark Newton of funstrat which remember this is Tom Lee,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: pretty much the king of eth out there right now.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: He breaks it down in this interview right here. Take
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: Your colleague Tom Lee says it's too early to call
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: a top because of all of the things that you're
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: looking at.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Technically, Mark, Yeah.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: CORRECTO morning, Maria. Look, Tom and I look at a
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: lot of the same things, and technically we just haven't
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: really seen sufficient evidence to think the market's beginning any
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: sort of larger seasonal correction. I mean this, we've seen
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: a three day pullback. Now it's fallen in the line
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: with the traditional seasonal period of Rassashana Diyam Kapor and
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: I've studied that data going back since nineteen fifty and
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: we do tend to see weakness to the tune of
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: about seven tents of a percent, and thereafter we almost
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: always see a very strong rally. So but for the
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: time being, you know, pullbacks, if they persist over the
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: next couple of days, there's still going to be something
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: to really look to buy dips and thinking markets press
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: up into right around sixty eight hundred or so into
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  Speaker 3: mid to late October. Economies come in quite strong of late,
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: and so it's actually reduced the number of rate cuts
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: between now and your end. You know, we have about
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: one and a half now priced in by FED fun futures,
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: still about four between now and next summer. Obviously they're
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: expecting three times of a percent. We'll see what comes out,
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: all right.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So he just remember, guys, Newton also was the guy
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: that called the local bottom on eth at around forty
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: two to forty one hundred. Ether of course slipped in
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: under four thousand, So let's just assume that, you know,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: there was a little bit of an adjustment there. So
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: maybe they're still on track here in terms of their predictions,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: and specifically talking about Tom Lee and Funstrack, because they've
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: been on point pretty much with bitcoin and obviously now
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: with eth and very involved in the eth ecosystem with
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: bit minor. If you compare a lot of what's happening
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: in the market to the dot com bubble, this is
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: back in the late nineteen nineties and in two thousand.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Remember that that push up had several legs in and out,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: and is this area where we are right now. This
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: is the current chart compared to the dot com bubble
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  Speaker 1: that occurred when we saw the two thousand starting to slide,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: and almost I think it was almost seven to eight
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: trillion came off the market cap of the S ANDP
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  Speaker 1: with mostly a lot of this high end froth business
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  Speaker 1: that came out of the Internet era. If you look
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: fear and greed, we have almost retraced the entire summer.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: And look at this right here, we're at thirty two
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  Speaker 1: right now. Last time we were at thirty two right
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: there was in April. So granted we kind of dipped
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: right there in June, but it was thirty seven. This
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: is a full retracement down on fear and greed. If
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: you look at the traditional markets right now neutral and
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: remember one week ago we were setting it still on greed,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: so they are responding to this right now of where
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: the market is. Mini analysts are very split on this
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: is that there's still that they're still on the upside.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Whether you think about what Funstrast's doing, or you look
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: at for to Macro with Darius, or you look at
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: some of the other analysts are kind of going the
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: other direction saying that this is actually the end of
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: this market. Other things that are playing into this crypto
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: market extends losses on bitcoin exhaustion signals, and I think
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are in that framework right now.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Many of the top twenty assets by market cap are
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: seeing double digit losses this week. Prices are drifting lower.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Many people would say, well, is this still a good
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: time to get in when you see these kind of
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: retracements that are going back. If you look at not
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: only that, but also how bitcoin could potentially go below
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: one hundred k, which right now it's still a little
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: bit high, I would say that this is probably low
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: probability fifty seven percent that it does dip under one
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: hundred k, but if it does, expect some pretty significant
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: all coin bleeding overall. One other thing to consider here,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: as we've seen some significant liquidations over the last ten days,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: and it's been multiple so all time highs in some cases.
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: So this is.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Something that of course gets into that psychological fact because
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of people, you know, as they say, paper hands,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: they'll start to exit the market thinking it's all over.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: The holders and the people who have kind of the
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: intention of where this is going, who double down on
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: some of these prices, maybe they are the ones that
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: win here in the end. Other things you could look at,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: of course, is the bitcoin ETFs another two hundred and
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: fifty eight million in outflow, eight bleeds first four straight day.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So is this kind of leaning into a major crash
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: or have we finally hit the bottom here and started
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: to see a little bit of a recovery over this
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Friday going into the weekend. Take a look at the
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: ETF chart. You can kind of see typically when we've
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: had these low zones, we get these big spikes back
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: into it. And this course is the Bitcoin ETF and
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: here we are low zones, And then you could take
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: a look with ethereum has a lot of the same similarities.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Here's all these low zones right here of inflows and
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: then boom we get these big spikes. What we've been
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: doing here are we on a reversal setup? Here for
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: where ethan the ETFs could be going? For sure, with
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: this being the case, the market always has winners. There's
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: always an alternate trade. One of them that we've been
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: watching for a while has been silver and the setup
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: has been outlined. We've outlined it on our channel a
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: couple of times. We had Andy go back and just
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: search the Silver video. A couple of weeks ago we
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: called this in the sense that this is getting ready
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to really offset against gold, and silver could see some
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: significant moves. And the target price that everybody's looking at
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: if you look at the future side, is around fifty bucks.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: And if it hits that, many people are saying that's
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: when it becomes blue sky. We don't know where it
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: would go from there. Right now, it's edging it out
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: right now. We're looking, of course at the futures right
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: there and also whether you go into the ETF side
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: over on black rock, all of which have been up,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: so this be another one to kind of consider. One
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: last thing I want to hit on right here is
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Peter Schiff. Two days after this post, silver broke forty dollars.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: That was the big point that everybody was looking at today.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Less than a month later, silver traded above forty six
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: as a fifteen percent gain and then just four dollars
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: left to ride to validate his forecast that we would
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: see a big move to fifty bucks. And that's exactly
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: the number that Andy Sheckman called two and a half
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: weeks ago here on this show. Is that watch for
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: silver to break above fifty dollars. One last thing to
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: kind of consider is just the framework of the growth
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: in this market. One of the big participants that has
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: not been active has been Tether. And here's Tether's potential
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: twenty billion dollar run to get a funding round and
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: they're drawing in soft bank and arc as backers. That's
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: a big deal. I mean, when you draw in soft bank,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: you have arrived at the at really at private capital
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: and where we will see investment to really strengthen up
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: different kind of projects. Whether you look at open Ai,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: you look at Tasela, you look at all the different
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: investment opportunities that have been in the market like this,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: our soft bank leading the way. Could Tether be in
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: the right place at the right time as the market
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: starts to eat up institutional capital coming in, liquidity needed
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: in the market and a stable coin us AT now
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: getting ready to be regulated here in the United States.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: A lot happening, guys, make sure and getting on the
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: diamond circle. It is our free group. You guys can
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: join for free. Just click the link down below, follow
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: me on x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: time right here on the Paul Baron Show.