Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 293 - 6/5/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 293 - 6/5/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 293 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week is coming to a
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close. We got today, we got tomorrow,
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then another big weekend here ahead.
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Guys, I got to tell you it is the hottest day thus far in New
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England for me. I'm on the outskirts of Boston
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and it is 90° today. So I guess summer is almost
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officially here. That's when you got to crank up
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the AC. And now that I'm a homeowner,
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we've been in our new house, first time homeowner, me and the
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me and the wife. But we've now been in here going
1:01
on our, our fourth year and every year I, I just pray,
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fingers crossed that my air conditioning still works and
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luckily turned it on for the first time today and boom, kept
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me cool. So that was, that was a minor
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victory. I guess first world problems
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trying to stay cool. But anyway, guys looking toward
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today. I do have another 3 pack of
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Major League Baseball plays for you, including a couple day
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games, couple late afternoon sweats here at some very, very
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short numbers. So see if we can get a couple
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day sweats as well as a game later tonight.
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We're going to go right back to the nation's capital.
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You might know where I'm going with this one, but right back to
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the well, see if a team can bounce back for us tonight.
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But either way, guys, 3 pack overall.
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We do have, of course, looking at the NBA, obviously the
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opening game of the NBA Finals tonight, and this was kind of a
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tough one for me. I was saying, hey, should I
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squeeze out a play here? But you know what, guys, this
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was an example of not trying to force something because if I
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just look at kind of the bet splits in the data, the way I
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always try to look at this game, it does look like OK C is kind
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of sharp. You know, Oklahoma City opened
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with the opener as low as -9 -, 9 1/2.
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They're up to 9 1/2 or even 10 at some shops.
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So the lines going to Oklahoma City, even though if you'll get
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the bet splits, the Thunder only getting 41% of bets, but nearly
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60% of spread dollars. So it looks like a low bets,
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higher dollars line move fade the trendy dog reverse line move
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play on OK C. But here's why I didn't play OK
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C1. I didn't have a great rhythm
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edge. Looked at all my rhythm props
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and models for this game and they're basically all right on
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the number 9/9 and 1/2. And then also the Pacers have
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really done well in this spot. The Pacers are 11 and five
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against the spread this postseason, 59%.
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They're six and two against the spread on the road, 75% and
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they're seven and three ATS as a dog 70%.
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So when they're getting big points, typically they do well.
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So for those reasons, and again, I try to when I'm betting on
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sports, I, you know, one of the one of the first, you know, you
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know, kind of problems I discovered about myself when I
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first started to bet on sports is I want to bet big games,
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games that are on TV, games that I'm going to go hang out with my
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friends and bet on and watch at a bar someone's house.
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But I learned, you know what, you shouldn't bet a game just
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because it's a big game, just because you want to, you know,
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because it's on TV and you want to participate.
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No, you should only bet a game if you have a clear, distinct
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set of reasons to play one side or the other.
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So the markets telling me, OK, see, but in the spot, the Pacers
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have done very well. That's why I'm going to lay off
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and say good luck to anyone who's playing this one here for
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tonight. So that being said, let's get
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right back to do what we love to do betting Major League
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Baseball. Now last night unfortunately had
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our two day win streak come to an end.
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Went 1 and 2 -. 1.37 units. Did have a great hit with the
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Twins. Remember the Twins were our
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example of using odds logic to your advantage identifying steam
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or the Twins got steamed up big in their bigly in their favor.
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As I like to say, like -160 up to -175 you and -190 the odds
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logic board lit up with all the odds for the Twins.
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You're able to jump on a slow moving book.
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Nice winner there in Minnesota. But then our other two games,
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the Yankees and the Cubs combined to score zero runs.
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Yanks got blanked 4 O Cubs got blanked 2O.
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So it's not often the Cubs and the Yankees get shut out, but
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just couldn't get anything going with the bats.
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So overall, 1 and 2 - 1.37 unit at night.
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Let's see if we can start a new streak for today.
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I do want to mention, of course, if you are around tonight and
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you have SiriusXM, I will be back at 8:00 PM Eastern Time on
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V Sin Live tonight with my buddies Patrick Maher and Dustin
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Swielsen. And again, you can always find V
4:30
Sin available to you on SiriusXM as I am not just a podcast host
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and author, but I'm a very proud V Sin sports betting analyst as
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well. So that being said, got a couple
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day sweats here. Let's not waste any more time. 3
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plays overall, you guys know the drill.
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Let's try to stretch a scratching claw.
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Get two of these and he got a winning day.
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So first, but on the board for me, little afternoon sweat.
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Let's go to America's hat as I like to call them, the Toronto
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Blue Jays hosting Philadelphia Phillies up in Canada, 3 O 7:00
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PM Eastern Time. First pitch.
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Let's set the stage of this one. Talk some line movement system
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matches and I'll give you my play.
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So this is the rubber match of a three-game interleague series.
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We had the Phillies who are 37 and 24.
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They took the opener 8:00 to 3:00 one as a - 135 Rd.
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favorite. Then the Jays who are 32 and 29.
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They bounced back with a 2 to one win yesterday, catched as a
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-, 110 home pick and play now for this afternoon series
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finale. You got the Phillies going with
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the lefty, hey Zeus Lizardo. He's five and one with a 3.58
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ERA. Meanwhile, the Jays are
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countering with the righty Chris Bassett five and three 3.8 O
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ERA. So what do you see across the
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market here? Well, this game opened
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interestingly, Philly as a very short favorite.
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Philly was around a -, 120 -, 125 Rd. favorite.
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Toronto around a plus one O 5 home dog.
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And the public is saying, give me the Phillies all day.
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Phillies are good team, good record.
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They've made some deep postseason runs and they're
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laying a very short number against Toronto, who again about
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500. But public is really going with
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Philly here. However, even though 74% of
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money line wagers at DraftKings are going with the Phillies, the
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line hasn't moved further toward Philly.
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Philly's not up to -130 -, 140 No, this line is tanking toward
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Toronto. We've seen Philly fall -120 down
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to -115 some shops even now down to as low as -110 we're
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basically kind of moving toward a pick em after opening with
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Philly as a short favorite. So this tells me that we have
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some sharp reverse line movement on the Jays as the line is moved
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in the favor of Toronto even though they're the unpopular
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play. So plus one O 5, I got Jays
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+100. Are you still, I still still
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think you can get plus 100 either DraftKings or FanDuel,
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but shop around because some of their shops are, you know, even
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hopping the fence to -1 O 5, even maybe going to -110.
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Now aside from this kind of sharp reverse line move in
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Toronto's favor, we also have some good bet splits at circa
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45% of money line bets, but 82% of money line dollars are going
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with Toronto. So you have a good low bets,
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higher dollar sharp contrarian split out in Vegas.
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Also, since May 1st, if you isolate short dogs that are plus
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120 or less, they've done very, very well.
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They're 93 and 8353%. Remember, 53% on a favorite
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system is not very good. You're probably actually losing
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units because you're laying a minus #53% on a dog system
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really good because of the plus money payouts.
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That's a 9% ROI. You're up over 15 units playing
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those short dogs plus 120 or less.
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That would qualify with Toronto here.
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Now, the Jays have played pretty well as of late.
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They're hitting 270 with a 3.78 ERA over their last 10 games.
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Meanwhile, Philly is only hitting 223 with a 5.19 ERA.
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Jays also have done well in the spot.
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They're going up against Lizardo, A lefty.
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They're hitting 259 against lefties.
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That's the fifth best in baseball.
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Toronto, meanwhile, only hitting 264.
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Or sorry, Toronto is also hitting 264 at home.
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That's the 4th best in baseball, so their top five against
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lefties and top five at home in terms of offense, Jays also have
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the better bullpen. ERA of 3.36, eighth best versus
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4.64 for the Phillies. That's the sixth worst.
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Jesus survived to sweat Hoffman coming in for a save.
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If I might, I might lose it because he's blown it for us
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before, but hopefully that doesn't happen.
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But then also, if you look at Lizardo in particular, he's had
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a really good year, but he's kind of come back down to earth.
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He has a 5.56 ERA and six May starts.
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He gave up 21 runs and and 34 innings, but he really got blown
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up in his last start. He gave up twelve runs and 3.1
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innings pitched in a seventeen to seven loss to the Brewers.
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That's like a football score right there.
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Meanwhile, Bassett has been pretty good, especially at home.
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4 and O 2.73 ERA. On the road, he's just one and
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three with a 4.86 ERA. But Toronto is also five and one
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in his last six starts overall. So we have Philly opening as a
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favorite Publix taking Philly, but Lions moving down toward
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Toronto. We got a good short dog system
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match. Jays have played very well as of
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late. Knock on wood.
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Hope that continues. They're good against lefties,
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good at home and I want to fade Lizardo, hopefully hope we can
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get give up some some more runs today.
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If you gave up twelve, I'd be surprised again, but hey, can
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you give me four more? That's the goal.
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Let's go Toronto, baby. I got the Jays plus 100 even
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money that's available. I believe still at DraftKings
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and FanDuel. But again, shop around some
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books at -1 O 5. Next one for you.
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If you like Toronto, I think you'll like San Diego here very
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similar spot, but let's go to a 3:45 PM Eastern Time first
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pitch. The father's visiting a Los
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Higantes. Now the Padres, who are 35 and
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25. They've taken the first two
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games of this four-game series. They won the opener 1 nothing in
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extras as a + 150 Rd. dog and then they won again an extras 3
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to 2 as a + 135 Rd. dog. However, he did see the Giants,
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who are 34 and 28 claw back with a six to five win yesterday in
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the third game of the series. They came through as a -, 105
10:09
home dog. So the pitching match up here we
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have the Padres go with the ready Dylan Cease.
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He's one and four with a 4.66 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the G men are going to go with the lefty Robbie Ray,
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who's had a really good year seven and one 2.43 ERA.
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And what have we seen across the market?
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Well, I mentioned this is similar to the Philly Jays game
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similar in this way. San Francisco open this game as
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around a -, 120 - 125 home favorite.
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The Padres getting around plus one O 5.
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And even though this isn't a huge public play on San Fran,
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this is a 5050 line move. So what that means to me is if
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you look at DraftKings right now, public is basically down
10:45
the middle 5050 and the money line tickets half on San Diego,
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half on San Francisco. What do we always talk about
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5050 split? Remember this is always ticket
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count, not money. Just the raw number of tickets
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are wagers on the game. Usually if it's 5050, you have
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no expectation to see a line move because theoretically the
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odds makers have balanced action.
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No need to bring the the odds up or down because the splits are
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right down the middle. However, sometimes you see a
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5050 split, yet you also see a line move and that's what you've
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seen here. Even though it's 5050, this line
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is falling away from San Fran toward San Diego.
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We've seen the Padres, or let me flip it, we've seen San Fran go
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from -125 down to -120 some shops now even down to -115 -,
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110. There's another game where it's
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inching down toward a pick em, which tells me we got smart
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money going San Diego because San Diego, excuse me, they were
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as high as, you know, plus 105 early.
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I got Padres plus 100. Now I'm seeing their -105 S
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Padres are actually hopping the fence.
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They're not a favorite, but there's still a dog.
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But now you're laying a minus number.
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So why is this line steaming so bigly towards San Diego?
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Well, it tells me they got smart money coming down in their
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favor. Now, San Diego has a couple
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things like 1 is a divisional dog.
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So both NLS teams, divisional dogs bark louder typically
12:07
because the built in familiarity leveling the playing field,
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leading to more upsets, basically benefiting the team
12:13
getting plus money, a variation of the same system that was on
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Toronto. If you just look at short Rd.
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dogs plus 120 or less, they are 54 and and 4356 percent, 16% ROI
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since May 1st. So they've actually done very,
12:29
very well. Those short Rd. dogs and in
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particular the Padres have done well as a dog.
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Padres are 14 and 11, 56 percent, 24% ROI as a dog this
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year. That's the 4th best dog team in
12:42
Major League Baseball. So again, if you like Toronto, I
12:44
think you like San Diego opening as a dog.
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Still a dog, but coming, you know, further toward a pick and
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play. And we have 5050 tickets split,
12:53
but line move in their direction.
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Good system match and they've been really good as a dog this
12:58
season. So I'm going to I'm going to
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play San Diego on this one guys. I got +100 again some books now
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minus one O 5 and I will add a little cherry on top.
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Popped open the juice reel app and noticed a 12% sharp mush
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edge on the father's. So let's go Dad's, let's go
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Padres. I got them plus 100 again.
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Some shops now hopping the fence to -1 O five last bed of the
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night. Let's get some revenge here and
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can, can Kyle Tucker play please?
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Kyle Tucker, can you be in the lineup?
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You actually pinched it last night with the game on the line
13:28
and grounded out. But anyway, let's go back to the
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nation's capital. For whatever reason, I'm I'm
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playing every game in this series.
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But we have the Cubbies visiting the Nationals. 6:45 PM Eastern
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Time. First pitch rubber match of a
13:40
three-game series. Now Cubs who are 38 and 23.
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They won the opener for us. Remember, eight to three.
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I was in play on Monday, cashed as a minus 1145 road favorite,
13:51
or that was Tuesday, I guess. And then yesterday the Nats were
13:54
29 and 32. They clawed back with A2 to
13:56
nothing win, much to my chagrin. Cashed as a + 120 home dog.
14:00
So in tonight's series finale, the Cubs are going to go with
14:03
the lefty Drew Pomerans. He's 2 and O with an ERA of 0
14:07
Nationals. Meanwhile, going to go with the
14:09
ready Jake Irvin. He's five and one with a 3.93
14:12
ERA. So what are we going to cross
14:14
the market here? Well, some good movement and
14:16
wait for some good system matches here in favor of the
14:19
Cubs. Cubs open this game around a -,
14:21
140 Rd. favorite Washington around a + 120 home dog.
14:25
And we've seen the Cubbies now get steamed up as high as -150
14:29
across the board. So I jumped on the Cubs at -142
14:33
at DraftKings here. Again, shop around.
14:35
You still won't be able to find her on a -, 145, but you have a
14:38
lot of shops upwards of -150 right now.
14:41
I like the bet splits on Chicago at DraftKings, 77% of money line
14:46
bets, 88% of money line dollars on the Cubs.
14:49
And then at Circa out in Vegas, we have more than 90% of money
14:55
line bets in dollars on Chicago. So you basically have a heavy
14:58
overload one way prone prone Joe action in favor of the Cubs at
15:02
both DraftKings and FanDuel. Now, I do like the Cubs as a non
15:06
division favorite, lack of familiarity, benefiting quote UN
15:09
quote the better team, but also sweet spot non division Rd.
15:13
favorites. If you're a sweet spot non
15:15
division Rd. favorite between -135 and -160 again, Cubs around
15:19
-145 -, 150. So they would fit this model.
15:22
Those teams are 38 and 21 this year, 64% with a 9% ROI.
15:27
And then here's another little system if you're a road favorite
15:30
after just getting shut out. Those teams are 17 and 771% with
15:36
a 23% ROI. Chicago is also the second best,
15:39
quote, UN quote bounce back team in baseball.
15:42
When they suffer a loss, they come back the next day and
15:44
they've gone 16 and 480 percent, 45% ROI.
15:49
Going to bank on the Cubs offense again.
15:51
Hopefully Tucker's in the lineup because he jammed his finger and
15:55
sat the first couple games. Definitely could have used them
15:57
last night. But anyway, they have the better
15:59
offense overall. They're hitting 260 on the year,
16:02
81 homers, 249 runs scored. Nats, meanwhile, hitting 24361
16:07
homers, 270 runs scored. And we do have Chicago hitting
16:14
274 on the road. That's the best in baseball and
16:17
262 against righties. That's the third best in
16:20
baseball. So their top five on the road
16:22
and against righties. And also the Cubs better bullpen
16:25
here I was I was hoping that who was it Finnegan, the closer for
16:29
Washington would would blow it last night.
16:30
It got a little interesting because Cubs got a couple guys
16:33
on, but they do have an ERA of Washington 5.87.
16:38
That's the second worst in baseball Cubbies kind of, you
16:41
know, early or middle of the pack there 3.56 ERA.
16:45
So we have basically a good steam move, 510 cent move on
16:49
Chicago. Really what I like Chicago in
16:51
the spot is the bounce back the favorite after getting shut out
16:55
system as well as some non division favorite value as well.
16:58
So add it all up guys. I got the cubbies at -142 again,
17:03
shop around some books now as high as -150 so Toronto and San
17:07
Diego and then we got the Cubs late.
17:10
Let's try to find a way to get two out of these 3 eek out a
17:12
winning day. So that about does it for
17:15
episode 293 of the all systems go sports betting podcast
17:19
powered by rhythm. Of course, this is the part of
17:21
the pod where we wrap things up and I start first by saying
17:24
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
17:26
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
17:29
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp, data-driven breakdowns
17:32
with me. If you do enjoy the pod, if you
17:34
value the insights, if you want to let me know you appreciate
17:37
the the content and the breakdowns each day, could you
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please do me a solid and give this podcast a five star review
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on Spotify or iTunes? If you want to leave a nice
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comment under the review section, hey, I enjoy the
17:48
breakdowns or whatever the case may be, I will take it.
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And then also if you want to click the follow button that way
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you get alerted as a pop up notification on your smartphone
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as soon as the pod comes out each day.
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That would also be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy the style of
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bedding breakdown, data-driven sharp contrarian bedding,
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otherwise known as grinding the data place.
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If that's the case and you want to let me know you appreciate
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the pod or you want to learn more about data-driven bedding,
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or maybe you have someone in your life who could use a few
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While you're still on Amazon.com getting the everything guide,
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19:01
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I cannot believe it. We're almost like 2 months away.
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Buy a beer or ginger ale or truly or whatever you want a
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Diet Coke. We'll get some nachos.
19:31
We'll get some. I don't know, it's a Thirsty
19:32
Thursday. What are we going to do?
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Maybe we'll take a shot if we can get a winner.
19:35
And then we'll also, I don't know, get some mozzarella
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sticks, sweat some games here tonight.
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whatever you want, but you know, hopefully some of these games I
20:43
put in the app earlier, if you were following Toronto Padres,
20:46
you get them like even money and now you're kind of a minus
20:48
number at this point. So it's cost $4.99 a week.
20:52
Again, I consider it a tip jar. If you enjoy the pod, the pods
20:55
free. Throw in a $5.00 bill each week.
20:58
Support the pod by getting the ASG Podcast Best Bets from Juice
21:02
Reel. You can always search buy sell
21:05
bottom right corner click that tab click ASG under score
21:07
podcast or you can click the link that I tweet out each day
21:10
at Josh under score insights on Twitter, but also juice reel is
21:14
going to give you the robo Jackson best bet pics.
21:16
The AI model plays each day the which are their official best
21:19
bets as well as the sharp motion indicators.
21:22
The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures, syncing
21:25
up your sports books to the app, getting a running report card of
21:28
your action all available when you download Juice Reel.
21:31
So download rhythm, download Juice Reel, give him a five star
21:34
review in the App Store. Next, have you given odds logic
21:39
a shot yet? Because you need a live odds
21:41
page. If you're betting on sports, you
21:42
got to know number one, what are all the games being played
21:45
today? What sports are in action?
21:46
What are the start times? You need live scoring.
21:49
You need live lines giving you live in game wagering odds once
21:52
the games get going because you might want to place a live line
21:54
bet if you see a good opportunity.
21:56
You also need to shop for the best line, get access to all the
21:59
different sports books, get an opening column, then the current
22:02
prices, see which direction the line is move.
22:04
We mentioned it yesterday, but identifying Steam, seeing the
22:07
Twins get hit, that was a big reason why I played the twins
22:10
yesterday. They came through.
22:11
That was a winner that would have been given to you hopefully
22:14
if you had used the odds logic. So again, there are a lot of
22:17
live pages, live odds pages out there, but you should really
22:20
give Odds Logic a shot. All you got to do is go to
22:23
oddslogic.com, Josh 123. You got to make sure it's Josh
22:28
123 at the end because then you'll get a 7 day free trial
22:31
and then 50% off your first month of service.
22:35
So that about does it for episode 293 of the ASG Pod.
22:38
As always, guys, I'll leave you with a couple things.
22:40
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
22:44
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
22:46
Foxwoods, Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
22:49
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my
22:53
neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
22:55
Or of course, by the Nash National, New Hampshire, where I
22:57
live now, close to it. Or out in the desert, where the
23:00
true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his number
23:02
runners, where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
23:05
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
23:07
plays, jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
23:09
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, what you're going to do
23:12
is you're going to walk up, walk up to me and show me a nice
23:15
Twinkies ticket coming through for the team with that good
23:18
steam. But Yankees and Cubs can't,
23:20
can't get one run across the board.
23:22
Both shutouts. That was that was frustrating.
23:25
That was annoying. So Yankees, Cubs, you let us
23:28
down. We'll RIP those tickets up,
23:29
recycle them, but hey, hopefully we can post some winners here
23:32
for today. So as always, guys 1 and 2, two
23:35
and one, O and three, three and O Hot, cold grinding.
23:39
You know, when we're up big, we got to stay grounded or when
23:42
we're down low and struggling, we can't get 2 down on
23:44
ourselves. We got to stay the course, think
23:46
long term, stay disciplined with the bankroll management and just
23:49
continue to grind the system matches.
23:51
And maybe you know by now or maybe you don't if you're new to
23:53
the pod. We're always looking in the end
23:56
for plays that fit our model against the public with the
23:59
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
24:03
line value. If we can do that and can stay
24:05
true to that long term, then guess what?
24:07
We're going to be successful sports bettors.
24:09
So have a great Thirsty Thursday, everybody.
24:11
I will see you later tonight, 8:00 Eastern Time, probably
24:14
talking some more NBA Finals with my buddy Patrick Maher and
24:18
Dustin Swedelson on SiriusXM. But if not, I will just see you
24:22
guys right back at it tomorrow for a big Friday edition episode
24:25
294 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
24:30
Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
24:32
great Thursday night.