Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - The Democrats’ 2028 Primary Map Is a Nightmare for Progressives

Transcript

Super Tuesdays - The Democrats’ 2028 Primary Map Is a Nightmare for Progressives · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Well, we think we now know what the twenty twenty
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: eight Democratic presidential nominating calendar is going to look like.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna talk about it. Welcome to Super Tuesday's
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: on Chris Liza. That's Chuck Todd. Yeah, and my look,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna apologize now.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: I went forty five minutes calendar on the chucktotcast, done Monday,
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: and I don't know if there's a nook or a
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: cranny in the six states that I haven't smidt.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I'm happy about that because I think I disagree a little.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: We disagree a little, but I think it's we disagree
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: on a candidate, we don't disagree in the larger.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I think that's right. All right, So let's let's just
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: quickly roll out so uh the DNC Rules and Bylaws
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: committee literally like it's like Russian nesting dollars. A committee
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: within a committee voted here here is we think again,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: it has to be approved by the full DNC, but
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: this is what we think the nomineaing calendar won't look like.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia. You
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: will notice if you're paying attention that's two more states
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: than usually are in that early voting window. They used
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: to do four, now they're doing six. Iowa's out, Michigan's in.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Virginia wasn't in, they're now in. All right, so what
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: can we Let's talk about South Carolina first, Chuck, because
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: it's I think there's only two states that matter, South
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Carolina and New Hampshire.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: Nope, I'm a Rickey Bobby person. What's the Ricky Bobby rule?
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Buddy? If you're not first, your last? So either North
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: so South Carolina in Virginia you a hundred percent correct, buddy.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I think it's sad that I know that we know
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: each other too well. Exactly.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: There's only two states that matter, in my opinion. We
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: can discuss everything else. There's a third state that was
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: a mistake, and we can discuss that down the road.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: But look, the big news is starting in a state
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: that the Democratic Party has never started first before.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: I know, technically it happened four years blah blah blah.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: We really tested primary. Joe Biden was going to be
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: the nominee. Dean Field.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: Time's not our livelime right in our lifetime, Okay. George
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: McGovern took advantage. Believe it or not, there were Iowa
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: coxses in seventy two. Jimmy Carter's getting gets credit for
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: seventy six, but Gary Hart actually hacked it in seventy two,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: essentially for the lifetimes of one Chrystal Is and one
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: Chuck Todd.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: And we're not in.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: One state that has had a contested leadoff campaign. And
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: you know the only other time that Iowa really didn't
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: start in was when Tom Harkin ran for president and
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: I essentially eliminated Iowa from being contested, and everybody in
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: New Hampshire became the default.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Because it was like, well, we're not going to compete there,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: He's just going to win home state, like he give
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: them an excuse to skip it.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: I think what will is going to be underestimated and
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: what is I think the most fascinating part of this
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: calendar for me is starting in a brand new state
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: that has never had this kind of attention. You know,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: when you're second, third, fourth in the lineup, you get
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: a week of attention. That's pretty good. It's better than
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: not being in the first win, yeah, totally, But when
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: you're first, you get six months at least.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say it is. It is.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: It is not just a drive by, you know, it
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: is you you have people who move there.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, we have people who moved
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: to Iowa. That's your national politicians who move to.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: Iowa, and now politicians is gonna be really excited about
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: moving to golf courses on Myrtle Beach.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, it's no offense to Iowa,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: but South Carolina nicer in January than so, Chuck. My
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: initial read, I think you're exactly right that we are
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: right certainly to focus on South Carolina. My initial read.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: And in this I heard you say someone I can
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: never remember where, maybe it was on tw her. My
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: initial reid was, and you've been You've been more right
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: on her than I have. Minus reet is this is
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: good for Kamala Harris in that she's an African American candidate.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: She's the best known candidate in the field. She's probably
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: not the only African American candidate who runs. And this
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: probably gets to your appointment. Wes Moore almost certainly runs.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I think Corey Booker probably runs. But and then look
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: for this one. I wish I think the Raphael Warnock
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: is on in the mix this is a state that
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I just went back quickly and looked. It was between
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: eight sixteen and twenty. So the three last big competitive
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: presidential primary Democrat primaries in South Carolina. It's somewhere. The
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: black voote is somewhere between about fifty six and sixty
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: one percent of the overall vote. You win the black boote,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: you win period. Obama won it in a way. Clinton
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: won n sixteen by twenty. So my initial reid was, Okay, well,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: you need to win. If you're her, you need to win,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: and you need to win early. You start losing early,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: it's bad. But tell me why that means. Tell me
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: why that may be shortsighted on my part. Oh look,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I just it is.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: Here's the thing I don't Her problem is is exactly
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: what you wrote, which is on paper, this should be
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: a slam dunk for her. The problem is this stuff
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: isn't done on paper now. And so number one is
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: she's she basically has one state to prove the nomination.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: She has that whole backup plan you wanted.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: She use the South Carolina. She's out correct every other
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: candidate running.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: That's a good point.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: You know, has a second state that could prove that
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: she loses South Carolina, Well, where the hell are you
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: gonna win? You know, type of mindset, right, if you
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: can't bring it home at the beginning. So, and the
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: worst place to start in president in an open presidential race,
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: not obviously not if you're the incumbent president, but in
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: an open race, or you know, especially if you're not
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: a sitting vice president. That is a distinction sitting vice
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: president versus the most recent vice president. Slightly difference there.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Is is just that.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: So I think this is I think it only ratcheted
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: up expectations for her. It means and and the thing
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: is is that I don't buy that the black vote
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: is hers.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I think it's a monolith, and.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: It isn't you know, I think we now how many
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: times does do analysts need to be taught that the A,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: the black vote isn't monolith? But but B you've got
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: to that you know, it can be definitive, like the
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: black vote will rally to the same candidate in a
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: binary choice.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: And I think that's really importantly. Going to have a binary.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: Choice, you're going to not at the start, not at
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: the front end entot right, JB.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Pritzker is going to for sure.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Manuals going for sure, Joshua, because if you have a
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: dream of being the nominee, the African American vote is
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: going to be absolutely crucial. By the way, this primary calendar,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: it's not just South Carolina, Virginia, and Michigan. Those three,
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: so three of the six states. Arguably the most important
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: constituency in the Democratic primary is the African American vote.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: True in Virginia, and it's not Detroit.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: But large is It's still.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Important as it is in South Carolina, but it's important,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: and ditto in Michigan. So the idea that it's going
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: to vote in one that somehow the African American vote
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: is going to vote one block and do so for
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: the most recent failed Democratic nominee, I.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Think is pretty presumptuous. I just do so.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Look, I think it's a you know, I look at
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: it at this calendar and you're like, you know, first
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: of all, you say to yourself, to me, there's only
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: one candidate. This calendar is totally made for more than
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: any other, and it's Wes Moore. Three states African American,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: large African American vote, two states with huge military population.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: South Carolina.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, I mean, it is a dream scenario
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: if Virginia too. I mean, if you want to put
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: together well, but Virginia only matters if you get there.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: That's got to get to the ends at.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: This story Wes Moore wants to tell, and the story
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: and the narrative that Wesmore wants to build about his candidacy,
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: there is no better state for him to start off
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: in than South Carolina. So that's why I think the
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: biggest winner of all. Look, I've seen it. Our friend
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Peter Hanby thinks it's John ossof I agree, a Georgia
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: presidential candidate certainly would benefit from being able to start
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: next door, just like Jabe Pritzker wishes Iowa, where of
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: course in the nation there is truthiness to that. We've
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: seen Massachusetts Democrats do extraordinarily well in New Hampshire. So
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: the neighbor's state thing is not a small thing. It's
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: a it's a big old Bernie.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Sanders in New Hampshire, right, I mean, it's the same
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: you know John Kerry in New Hampshire. Right.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: But the problem to declare as off the winner is
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: you have to assume Warnock's not running.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: And I know because we're not. I don't assume that either.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: And you know, given what we saw the last two cycles,
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: when I never thought you'd have multiple guys and gals
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: from the same state running in the same primary, it
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: happened in Colorado. I think that's all happened in Florida
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: with with with Trump and Jeb and Rubio, none of that,
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: you know, and as you know, so I don't assume
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: that either as Off or Warnock's gonna operate.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Worry about what the others planning. They're not gonna I
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: don't think either of them is going to turn the
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: wheel to avoid a crash there, right, Like, I think
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: it's they both may well run, and.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: I do think they cannibalize each other though I do
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: think it's kind of like Colorado. It'll probably guarantee that
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: neither one of them could be the nomine if they
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: both run.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we're inveering off here a little.
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: I have to it is is I do think we've
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: all circled, you know, the other part of this calendar
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: that I think is the much bigger story.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: And I look, I've got my own laments.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: About this calendar if it's not a party building calendar
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: per se. But Dan Pfeiffer reminded me that there there
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: were limitations that they had. They only could basically consider
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: states where they could control the legislatures. They sometimes you
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: can't change the law and move the primary up. So
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: I get all that, and South Carolina is already pre
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: baked on that. But to me, the biggest thing is
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that the Rules and Bylaws Committee created
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: a calendar to make it as hard as possible for
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: a progressive insurgent to win the nomination. However, if I
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: were to design a calendar to make it very hard
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: for Bernie aoc or or wrote Kanna to win this nomination,
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: the calendar would look an awfully like a lot of
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: the calendar that came up with Okay, kicking off in
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: a less in the least progressive early state in South Carolina,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: and ending in one of the least progressive blue state
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: that's interesting in Virginia.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: So that's your first. If you're not first, your last theory,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: which which I think is generally true. We usually remember
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the first series in the movie in the last, we
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: very rarely remember the middle. To make you a case, quick,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: tell me about Temple of Doom. Right the Temple related
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: to Little Ummid there was doom all the time. I
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: don't really remember that at all. I think is kind
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: of in it stale, But I can't remember Jaws two. Okay,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: let me make you. Let me make the Devil's Advocate case.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: That's why we do this. South Carolina. South Carolina, you
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: were exactly right, the least liberal friendly, certainly like ds
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: a wing friendly of Oven of the early date that
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: they were considering. But I assume you're going to have
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: it's you're going to have the most candidates in that
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: out of any of the the other six, right, because
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: everyone will go probably through South Carolina or close to it,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: because why not, which I would assume means a significant splintering, right.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think anyone's going to win with sixty five
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: percent of the vote. To me, if i'm and I'm
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: going to make I'll make the case through four states,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: and then I want to hear what you say to me.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: If I'm AOC, I probably figure I've got, let's call it,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: like somewhere between fifteen and eighteen percent that are probably
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: going to be for the most liberal candidate. Maybe it's
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: fifteen in a really splintered field, but let's just say
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: I get fifteen, dude, Bernie got twenty. It is okay.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: It was a two person race. I mean, well, it
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: was a two person race, all right, so let's say it.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Let's go ten, then Chuck, let's go stocking. How he
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: didn't get and it was very well for the progression.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I think she has a little bit more appeal in
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: that community broad but we'll see. I just think in
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: a splintered field. Let's say she finishes fourth. Okay, tell
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: me why these next three states aren't good for her.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Nevada if not a majority Hispanic voting population close in
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: a Democratic caucus, Bernie one New Hampshire. Pole. Now it
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: is a primary. I know which will help which will
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: hurt her, no question, But it is Nevada, New Hampshire.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Now I don't totally know that this is one poll,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: and I'm always kept with one poll, but it has
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: her and Pete Footage udge close at the top. And
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: then New Mexico, which is another similar looking state to
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Nevada in terms of that the demographics. In a Democratic primary,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Let's say she finishes fourth in South Carolina, she wins Nevada,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: she comes in second. New Hampshire and she wins New Mexico.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Why tell me what's wrong with that scenario. Now I
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: haven't gotten in Michigan in Virginia, but she's now finished fourth. First.
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: Second, First, you've explained the path the progressive is likely
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: to take, and I think then what you'll have is
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: Michigan and Virginia will be this basically one on one.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: He'll be the South Carolina of past elections, the Progressive
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: versus the party that's run by Abigail Spanberger. Yeah, and
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: Terry mccaf I like Terry mccalluff, who sort of orchestrated this.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: You know, once a DNC chair, always a DNC chair.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: But look, I I now I'm gonna I.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Thought you were going to go in a different direction.
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: So okay, tell you now, I'm going to be the
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: devil's advocate to my own argument, and I will I'm
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: going to pick up a little bit on where you go. Okay,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: I agree, I'm splintered field. I use the example I'm
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: going to also use. I'm going to go back in
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: time a little bit. South Carolina as a democratic sort
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: of race ender has only been a twenty first century phenomenone.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: Carolina primary has not been a big deal in the
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: Democratic side until really did it really something Withama?
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: And then and then that's right, eight sixteen and twenty twenty.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: It's mattered, it's mattered, but it really wasn't a huge
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: you know, it's always been more of a Republican primary
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: that more.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Right, McCain.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: Bush is the one we all think of, and there's
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: his story, right. My favorite set of numbers is the following.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: John McCain got blown out in South Carolina by George W.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: Bush in two thousand and he got forty two percent
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: of the vote. In two thousand and eight, he got
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: thirty three percent of the vote. But this time it
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: was a winning number because there were four other four
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: to five other serious campaigns in the race, right, and
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: so he was able to change the narrative. So the
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: narrative became, oh, hey, McCain did something he couldn't do
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: the last time, right, So he won New Hampshire and
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: he had to prove hey, look, no other Republicans ever
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: won both New Hampshire and South Carolina not become a nominee.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: So he wins New Hampshire, wins a more splintered So, look, Conservatives,
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: you had Fred Thompson was running down there. I think
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Huckaby was still in the race then, right, you know,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: And there was this splintering, if you will, right of
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: the vote, and it allowed thirty three percent basically the
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: Nikki Haley Republican, the Moderate, the the Champ, the Charleston's Republican,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: if you will, right, totally that was enough Republicans. Yes,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: So if you're telling me in a campaign of let's
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: say it's Harris Moore and Newsome and you know, oh
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: for the black volk, yeah, meaning just well, and you
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: have this splintering and AOC's eighteen percent is good for
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: second or third, and she does it, you know, so
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: or even if it's so splintered, she could win it, right,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: And then the narrative of progressive in South Carolina, obviously
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: the subhead is yes, it's because the rest of the
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: vote wasn't very consolidated, but you still won.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: But you still so you know. I say this because.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: The best orchestrated primary calendars don't always produce the result
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: that they're intended. And I'll give you the example is
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: the eighties. So after the McGovern debacle, a bunch of
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Southern governors in the seventies, late seventies, and I can't
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: remember when they changed this, whether they did it in
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: eighty you know, you had the McGovern changed all the
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: rules that allowed for all this proportional stuff and all
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: this stuff to sort of open the door for But
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: there was a time where essentially, you know, the southern
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: governors Democratic governors at the time it was Chuck rob Bill, Clinton,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: zel Miller, Rubin Asque.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Anyway, they were pretty powerful for Uce inside the Democratic Party,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: and they created this Super Tuesday. These Southern people don't
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: realize that Super Tuesday was a Southern thing first and
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: then eventually it became a national connection. But it was southern.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: It was Super Tuesday. It was Southern Super Tuesday. And
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: the point of it was to not nominate a liberal,
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: was to give one of the Southern candidates a shot.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: The irony is that because Jesse Jackson runs in eighty
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: four and eighty eight, he cleans up the black vote
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: in the South, he cleans up on Super Tuesday and
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: allows more Liberal candidates Walter Mondale in eighty four, Docaccus
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: in eighty eight to essentially do better than they should
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: have on Super Tuesday because of what a three way
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: race that splintered the vote. Jackson basically held onto the
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: black vote, and then everything else got splintered away, and
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: then the mainstream liberal candidate with union backing in this
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: case mondale Mon eventually ducraccus he was able to do it. Now,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: Southern Super Tuesday did eventually deliver a Southern nominee, but not.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Till ninety two. That's right.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: That's why I'm like, look, it's clear to me this
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: calendar is intended to have as many fail safes to
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: stop the progressives as possible. That's the inclusion of Michigan.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: Michigan and Virginia are great in South Carolina, all three
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: of those. In New Mexico, you could argue is to
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: a lesser degree, this is this is a state that
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: does care about border law and order.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: This isn't an open border state. You know. Can you
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: have a Biden administration official who's going to be the governor,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: you know, dev hol it's a governor. Like I mean,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: it's not like some lefty You're not a super rifety state. No.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: So neither is Nevada.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: By the way, with all the union stuff, I mean
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: you got to kind of be a little pro you
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: can't be totally anti gun in a New Mexico.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, it's a rural state.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: You know, it's kind of like Colorado in that respect,
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: right that there's almost like New Hampshire in some ways.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's like Bernie was always conservative on that stuff.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: For the Latin.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: You know, Bernie has never right supposed gun issue because
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: he doesn't think it's a Troy Jackson, by the way,
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: is very similarly positioned to Bernie for the exact same reason.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: So you know, it is certainly a calendar designed to
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: do this, but there are you know, if the fields
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: why it's interesting, you could see it, you could see
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: a splintering. But I want to talk about one more
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: aspect to pick South Carolina and how you will be
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: able to judge whether this was you know, to me,
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: the primary. If you're not using your primary calendar to
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: build your party, then you're wasting the primary calendar. You'll
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: know whether this was a good idea if in twenty
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: thirty and twenty thirty four the Democratic nominees for governor
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: are receiving somewhere between four in South Carolina winning right, right,
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Because I do believe that I when you look you
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: could it's correlation, you can call it correlation whatever, and
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: not to say it's causation, but certainly looks that way
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: to me, Which is, the Iowa Caucus has become a
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: thing really eighty starting in eighty yees seventy six, right,
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: but basically mainstreamed it up where everybody starts in Iowa,
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: and by eighty four, from nineteen eighty four, essentially through
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: twenty fourteen, Okay, yep, Iowa had one D and one
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: R senator the whole time, and the same D and
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: the same R Senator.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: H Harkin and gressively.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: Is that an accident or is that due to the
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: constant party and both state parties? Chris, You know this
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: covering these state parties really closely in the nineties and
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: the odds, YEP always punched above their weight, of course,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: of all the resources.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Well funded talent, all the staff, talent, and Iowa.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: Is still to this day more competitive, arguably than its
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: demographics indicate.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: I'm interested. That is, I think that because growth in
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: South Caroline is through the roof, right, I mean, the
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: population is.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Growing, huge opportunity for Democrats to build their party registered
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: unregistered rural blacks, and this is their key. The Democratic
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: Party's problems in the South are as much of a
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: part not just with rural whites, but they also have
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: a rural a rural black problem too, and it really
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: just is touching that constituency. They don't go out in
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: the rural areas very much. And in the South there's
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: plenty of rural black counties just like the rural white counties,
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: and they matter.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: That's interesting because I believe other than Clyburne, there is
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: no Who's eighty six? There is and who they were
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: going to get rid of his district and then didn't
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: they probably will. There's no Democrat in the House delegation
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and there's certainly not obviously Senate is. And then I'm
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: trying to think of there's any statewide office I think
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Republicans hold. I mean it is, as of course, the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Superintendent of Public Instruction, Fritz Fritz Hollings, you know, I mean,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: there were there there's something there. But it's to your point.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: It is interesting because it's the criticism is why are
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: we Why are we starting? Why are Democrats starting in
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: a state that is not going to be competitive in
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the general election. That's the argument against it. Yeah, I
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: think because Nevada will be New Hampshire might be, Michigan
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: will be Virginia might be right, Like, yeah, it's okay,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: one last one.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: I think if they had started with Nevada, that would
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: have been literally.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Shooting themselves in the foot. But we can talk. I
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: got one last one on this and then we can
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: move on. We have like a couple people that we
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: could say we think went Wes Moore, maybe Harris. Maybe
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: because with Harris, just one quick poet on Harris, I
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: wanted to go back and make I agree with you.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: If she loses South Carolina, that's it, but I'm not sure,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: like if she lost Nevada, would that be it? Anyway,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter, that's my point.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: That's my point, Like, yes, South Carolina's probably worse, but
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: it's a button done, it's a one and done for it. Look,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: if she wins it, then maybe she can't be stopped
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: and she's going to be the nomination. But yeah, I
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: think it's a double edged sword.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: It's a absolutely yeah, she's got to go earn it,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: and you know it's I'm not sure.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: Remember this is not they're not deciding what the nominee is.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: They're just simply winnowing the field. That's exactly, and that's
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: different than the role they've had last thing. If we
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: so you know, we can debate winners. Is there someone
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: when you saw this and you this this south growing
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: in about in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Vermont, Virginia,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: did you think, oh, that's bad for this person? Oh yeah,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I think AOC, I think I go back, this is
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: this is not it is built to be against her
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: in your mind. I think it's a map that is
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: a calendar, that is it's certainly not there to help her.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: You could say, I think that's probably right, even though
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: I think it might actually work in.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: The way that But I'm with you, it wasn't designed
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: to be. And in some ways I would if I
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: were in her camp, I would.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Say great, because the expectations are particulates for Michael.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: This is the whole narrative thing that you were talking about.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Good news is yeah.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, please if I were AOC, please Chuck Todd and
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: crystalizz yeah, talk about how hard this town you have
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: no chance? Right, so that you know that way there
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: is some like you have some sort of realism built
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: into her expectations about candidacy at this point, I just
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: think it's it's a It does feel as if it
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: was a map designed to make it harder.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: For the left, not easier. I will throw one other
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: one out there, and I just want to get your
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: take on it. When I saw this, I thought, Okay, well,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Michigan's in there, but towards the end and he's not
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: really from Michigan even though he lives there, Like I
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: don't see Boodhage edge one Iowa.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: Oh, I think this is a good map for boot
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: for people. Okay, tell me why because of the military veterans.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: I think now he's in the constituency he can work on.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: So for instance, in South Carolina, he just didn't have
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: time and you never actually did. We don't know how
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: Pete would have done it random pulled up states. We
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: know he's this issue with him and African Americans was
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: an issue the first time, so it's obviously.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: And it will be an issue this time. We know
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: he's at zero or one or two percent in most
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: of these light with black.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: The one upside for him is another constituency for him
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: to yeah, uh, spend a lot of time with and
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: to sort of brand himself with and that is the
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: veterans community of South Carolina. And I just think he
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: gets he'll get more opportunities talking to that constituency, just
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: like Wes Moore will and dinner with Mark Kelly.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Look, I'll give you another guy, you know. I mean,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: we don't talk about the Mark Kelly prospects enough, and
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: I know we don't.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: I've been dismissive of it, and people say why and
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: why It's because Kamala Harris's team has done this to us.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: Let's I'm gonna I'm not gonna say everything agree, but they.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Have during the vetting process, they completely have introduced skepticism
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: about whether quote unk quote Mark Kelly can vet.
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: And is that fair to him? Right, it's unfair when
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: you have this. You know, nobody provided any fodder. They
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: just there's nothing he can push back against. Right, Right,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: It's a terrible whisper campaign.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: It's like, well, you know the deal with Todd. No,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know the deal. Oh, I can't tell you what.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: I will tell you this.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: I thought Mark Kelly, uh, And I thought the Leibovich
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: piece in the Atlantic went.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: A long way to oh hell yes about his relationship
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: with Gabby whisper campaign.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Yes, it's not going to go to bed no, but
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: to quiet it down a little bit, and it seemed
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: to a un stated goal of that piece for Kelly.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: I wished to do that. I think guess is another
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: winner out of this calendar? Kelly is that? But is Kelly?
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: And then I think another winner here and it's simply resources.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Is anybody that can sell These are expensive states, particularly Virginia, Vegas,
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: Michigan and Michigan.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: I mean New Hampshire is the Boston media market. This
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: is a big deal.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: This, This is an advantage Pritzker has that none of
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: his other competitors, yep is willing to write his own
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: checks and he will and that allows him to have
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: you know, you'll hear I always say it's like, look, yes,
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: the early state. It's nice to be in the early
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: state window. But honestly, if he ain't first, your last,
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: you know, because all the other candidates, they'll do an
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: event here or there in Virginia, and an event here
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: there in Michigan, and an event there New Mexico, Nevada.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: But they'll always spend three days to everyone, of course, right,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: and I think state.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: Is yeah, and I we'll end on this. But I
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: think the point you made is really important, which is
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: the South Carolina first in the Nation primary started Friday.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Do you know what I mean? Like like this is
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: what anger life track keep track of Annie Andrews. A
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: lot of endorsements, a lot of money.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: Andrews is suddenly going to have a lot more now.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see who she says yes to
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: yes too, and who she says.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Probably yes to Andy Basher, no to AFC if she
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: wants to.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: But the point is is that she's suddenly going to
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: get a lot more attention in these last three months.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: That's competitive enough, right to not And you can't put
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: it this way. You've got to pretend that she's got
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: a shot at this, So you better, you know, behave
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: that way. And also the woman they got the Bennett
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: I want to say, I hope I have the name right.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: The first district Democrats, Oh yeah.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, the woman running a nest in Nancy Macy's Yeah,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: who's a military veteran.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Definitely think you'll see Wes Moore, Pete Bodagig and Mark
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Kelly make some.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: It's just it's a really important point because I think
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: I think people don't realize if you don't pay attention
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: as closely as we do. Like, really, the candidates spent
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: two thirds of their time maybe more three quarters in
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Iowa and New Hampshire and then like sure some Nevadas,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: some South Carolina, but really now it was like, well,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: if I can get it going in Iowa New Hampshire,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: then we got something in South Carolina. Well now it
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: all starts in South Carolina, which makes it a very
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: different race, right, It just does like the time you
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: can spend to your point people, but it just really
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: didn't do much in South Carolina because he was worried
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: about trying to win Iowa New Hampshire because he knew
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: if he didn't do that, South Carolina didn't matter. So
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: it's just a okay, we can end on that. But
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: it's all right, I have and there two more primaries.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Go go, go, go make your primary calendar points and
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: then we'll go we'll move on. I think just putting
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Michigan in the early window. And I'm sorry, Debbie Deanngle
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: to say this dud, because you've been working on this
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: for thirty years, I mean literally thirty Love you for it.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: I love you for it.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: And Michigan in so many ways deserves this opportunity. But
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: of all the gin joints, of all the campaign cycles,
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: of all the years, to have Michigan have its own
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: week to itself on the calendar at a time when
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: the Israel's story is as divisive as it is. We'll
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: probably get to abduasi A in a few minutes.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, you could have you could
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: have Abdul lsa At as a sendo or presidential candidate. Yep.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: And I do think that Democrats are going to hate
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: the week they spend debating the Israel issue in the
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: middle of their presidential primary season. Yep. And Nevada.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: I know why Nevada got picked. Nevada doesn't get picked
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: because of the voters. It gets picked because of the
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: special interest groups behind it. It is not a good
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: test of the Democratic candidates on how to win over
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: Latino voters. This is a one endorsement state. This is
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: a It matters what you say in an interview room,
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: It doesn't matter what you say to voters. And I
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: say this, and I'm sorry to John Ralson, and I'm
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: ragging on this because I love Nevada per se. But
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: the way this system is set up on the Democratic
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: side doesn't feel like the test it should be. I
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: think Arizona would be a much better first time.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: I agree, John Ralson is going to kill us. I
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: love you. I agree. All right, let's do you have
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: I want to just tie the tie a string around
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: this because when we talked about this in April, you
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: were at the first White House correspondence dinner this year
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: that was interrupted by this guy rushing the security. Did
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: you go again? I don't think you did, but I'm
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: not sure did you go again? And number two, I
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: watched it because I I didn't have anything else to do,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: which speaks to my social calendar. It it felt even
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: more off than most years, like just so incongruous. Like
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: we're giving the Wall Street Journal an award for its
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: reporting on Trump. Trump has said that reporting is fake.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: He in the speech says Caitlyn Collins needs to smile more.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: He says, Josh Darcy at the Wall Street Journal is unhireable.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Like I'm in the end. It don't mend it category,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: but I wanted to get your take on it because
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: you actually covered the White House. I never did, so
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: I don't interact with these people.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: Well, I know I was not at it, and I've
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: said it before. I got like roasted by right now.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, I remember. We talked about not being
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: around that kind of stuff.
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to be around Like why should I
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: because I know I know that my safety is a
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: big prioritize.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: How's that?
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: And I'll just leave it at that. And by the way,
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: that's not their job. You know, they're not there for
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: our safety. They're there for one person's safety. But you
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: have to make a decision for yourself too, correct exactly.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: I'm going to just pass on the idea that I
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: shared with my listeners. It was it's missus toodcast idea
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: as a spouse of somebody who covered the White House.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: It is a There is no harder.
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: The job of White House correspondent is both a fantastic
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: thing for your for an opportunity, it's great on your resume,
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: and it really sucks for your personal life because constant
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: you are you are at the another person's in charge
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: of your schedule.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: Yep, and especially under Trump. Oh my god, but it
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: was true. It's probably true all of them like crazy.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Savannah Guthrie used to have a
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: She used to joke that, like Robert gibbs was our warden,
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: we were on work release. And literally it's like we
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: walked around with buzzers on us.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Up you gotta go or up you got to go
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: back to the White House and do a stand up up.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: You got to go on a trip you weren't expecting,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: you know.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: And and let me tell you, after your there's no
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: better title than former White House correspondent.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Talk about all the great worst, all the story. You
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: will believe this one time I had it.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: We were an abu Jabi, I did thirty one life
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: shots and I was doing this here.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: It is. It is brutal. So it is it. Look
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: it is not roofing houses in one hundred and fifteen
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: eree weather, but in terms of in terms of reporting,
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: and it's in your own schedule, in your family life,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: it's very difficult. It's unpredictable.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: Look as as somebody who worked at the White House
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: once said, remember the White House is family friendly for
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: one family, and that is if you're the press score
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: you're there. It is literally it's family friendly for one family.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: And it is it ate Robert Gibbson's family either, No,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: it was definitely the first family. So her idea is, look,
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: I resent the idea that the White House Press Association
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: doesn't get to have its own dinner, like let them
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: celebrate their degree. Every trade association gets to have it.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: Of course, salesman the year, blah blah blah. Yeah, it's
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: the same White House as you need. Here's what she'd
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: like to see that the White House essentially hand over
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: the South lawn to the White House Press Association once
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: a year for members and their families. And it's a
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: great event that does celebrate scholarships, you do the awards,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: you do all of this thing, but it's in some
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: ways like an old fashioned high school football banquet or
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: band banquet. I of course am familiar more with the
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: band banquets. Then that's the same football bank. But the
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: point was who was at the band banquet? Your college
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: and your parents, spouse and the kids.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: And it's not intelvision and the president it speak at it. Look,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: television ruins everything. Yeah, you're not wrong, you know, and
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: especially in politics right, television is ruined, you know. Look,
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: it was TV cameras that ruined the OJ Simpson trial
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: and created stories that didn't exist. Literally, if it wasn't
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: for TV and the cameras in the courtroom, we will
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: manufactured to race. Now this is this is basically a
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: TV camera. So that's what it is. That that ship
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: is not going back, right.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: I know I'm not fighting that, but I like the
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: idea that the People's House, which the President's House does
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: I know to the president blocks to people, is an
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: appropriate place for those that make their living off the
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: First Amendment to celebrate how they make their living.
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: So I think missus toodcast had a great idea.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: I love that that open up the South lawn once
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: a year for the White House Press Association for it's
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: invited guests and family to celebrate their hard work and
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: let them at the because guess what, like my kids
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: only once got to see where I worked.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, and you go to the
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: White House every day. They don't write.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: And I had to sneak them in during an Easter
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: egg role for one of where they just wanted to
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: come in with me, and literally it was just sort
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: of like you know, because I was, you know, I
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: have a nice place and person and that's that secrets
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: to talk to you that day and let me in
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: with my kid but you know it is, it's a
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: more appropriate way. The President shouldn't be involved in it nowsoever. No,
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: and I think the forced it's this forced. You know,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: the press needs to ask itself why it needs the
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: president at its dinners to make it feel as if
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: they've done their job. Like, I think it's weird that
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: you demand if the President wants to come to the Gridiron,
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: he's welcome, but it shouldn't be like a necessity. Ditto
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: with the White House Correspondence Association. Ditto with radio TV.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: This doesn't great job with that radio. And it's not like,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: well Johnson and Mike Johnson can't come, so we can't
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: have it. It's like just get some member who's funny.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: But that's fine.
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: It's it's and I don't even have to be that
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: so right, I just what did we learn about Trump
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: during World Cup and the fact that Spain's and men's
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: national team had to photoshop him out of the photo
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: out of my cold dead hands, whether it's the Bress
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: giving itself an award, right, Donald Trump's going to show up,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: It's going to be about him, right, He is always
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: going to make it about him, So you know that's
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: it's just I am.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: I am. Here's why I am exhausted. I'm tired of.
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: I don't like what I've seen from some of my
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: fellow journalists. And and I've really tried and hard not
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: to do this, which is, oh, just get rid of
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: the dinner already. Well it's easy for you to say
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: you don't do this anymore.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: I want to buy for them to have a dinner.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Just don't make it, don't put it on TV, don't
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: invite the president, make it like the I was watching
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: the episode of the Office where Dwight is the best
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: salesman in scrant and he has to give a speech
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: to like salesman of northeast Pennsylvania, and he gives that
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: he gives a Mussolini speech. Accidentally, wait a minute, Wait
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: a minute, we really are living parallel lives.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: So we ran out of stuff to watch, and we
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: started watching reruns of the Office two weeks ago.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: So we were just watching that Musolans thing. Is hilarious.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: He's pounding, he's bounding, by the way, though only brush
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: moves the wheels of history. How precious was that? This
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: is pretty trumps pre Trump. It's like pre Trump. And
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: it basically said, if you just banged the table. People
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: will start following with you. People start clapping. He's literally,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: if you're unfamiliar with it, he is literally reading a
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Mussolini speech.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's like, you know, it's funny. It's like
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: it has been a while. My son's an obsessive office guy.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: He's done every office ten times and all that.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: I've watched a lot, and I have not done it
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: in a while. Oh guy, he's so good. It gets me, like, Holy,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: the middle seasons are incredible. Once they got away from
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: just repeating the British one, it gets great. I mean, look,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: although the British one is I mean, Ricky Gervais is
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: the King, like you can't. No, there's no doubt about it.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I have a question. This popped up today. We're filming,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: by the way, for people who don't know, we usually
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: film in the afternoon on Monday, so we're in the
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: afternoon on Monday. So if anything comes out after that,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: we'll do an update, But as of right now, Mix
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: m'connell fell at his home on June fourteenth. Chuck. On
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: July twelfth, we got an update that said with the
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: picture of him and Elane Chow saying I'm doing fine.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: I'm in this rehab facility. It started to bubble up again,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: and on Monday, July twenty seventh, they put out another
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: picture of my client of McCain, McCain, McConnell, and Elaine
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Chow saying I'm not ready to come back in. I'm
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: gonna miss I'm gonna miss Fancy Farm, which is the
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: big political event every year in Kentucky, which if you
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: have not been, you should go because it's super fun.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna miss this. I'm not coming back to the
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Senate right now. But Chuck, we have not heard the
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: man say a word since June four, Like if he
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: is doing these intense rehab workouts, which is what they
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: said on Monday, the man isn't said anything. And I'm
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: not a conspiracy theorist. I'm really not. I don't think
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: he's dead, But what the hell is That was a
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: proof of life photo. But it's not a proof of
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: speech photo. Yeah, it's not a proof Look, we've had
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: I said he did not have a stroke. He said
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: he did not have a heart attacks. He is on
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: the record with these things. It's like he can record
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: a thirty second video stroke Like, yeah, I had a
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: relative who had something that is technically not a stroke,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: but it had broke. Like, there's something more going on here. Right,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: here's the problem that I have with the conspiracy theories.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Explained to me.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: One of one of my favorite things to sort of
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: blow up a conspiracy theory is like, Okay, walk me
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: through it. Why what's the upside?
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: Explain? Right, he's lead. I can't like, but I can't
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: figure out is what the upside is? Right, It's not
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: like he got re elected.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: Right, there's no scenario that bisheer you know, all it
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: would do if he'd resign, it might trigger a court
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: fight to decide whether Bisher has his loan power has
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: to follow the legislature, but he'd be even that is
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: a temporary thing and it will be two months me.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: So it is what nobody is fully explained to me
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: that goes down these rabbit holes of conspiracies. Is Okay,
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: play it out. Explain to me why this is a
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: why this would be necessary to do? And nobody has
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: offered me that. There's no rationale for why other than
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: sometimes what it is is what it is. If he
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: could speak, he would speak correct, That's right. He can't
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: that's exactly right. Something something has gone wrong with his speech.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: For whatever, there's something wrong with his speech. It's pretty clear.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: I think all of us that something is afoot there.
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: But you know, I go back to something else I
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: said the last time we talked about this. He's a
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: pretty private guy. He never likes he would never would
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: talk about his relationship with his own kids and all
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: sorts of stuff that it's always been. In fact, it's
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: been always part of his biography of how sort of
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: aloof he is sometimes with his own family.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: So the likelihood that this guy wants.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: To give as little as possible about his medical history
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: is sort of on brand for the ms connell I've
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: covered for forty years, and.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: I did a Paul kait our friend Paul Kaine, who
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: was at the Washington Post forever is now at notice
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: they got to change the name of that. But he
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: and I were talking. He covered they are, he's covered
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: the Senate for a very long time. He knows the
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: Senate better than Chuck and I do. And he said
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: almost exactly what you said, which is like, look a
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: little weird. Sure has Mitch McConnell, even when he was
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: a much younger man, like in his sixties he's eighty
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: four now. Was he very private?
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: Was he.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Sort of snappy with reporters who would ask him about thinks?
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: And he was? So I think both things are true.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: Something is going on with this speech. It's exactly what
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: you said, if we would always notice the thing that
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: isn't there as much as the thing that is there.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: Right, no one that's like our last number one, always
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: pay attention to what didn't happen, exactly so.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: But I also think number two, you know, I think
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: he's an old man who is in extremely poor, fragile health,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: and he's never been someone to share anything publicly. So
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: I think both of those things can be true. And
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, Like, even if Andy Bsher could appoint someone,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: it would probably by the time the litigation end, it'd
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: be for like a month. I mean that the race
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: has already happened to replace it.
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: What's the prize for conspiring to prevent this right in
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: a Supreme Court.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: Opening or something that they need to see. I just
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: it's it's right. You're right.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: When you dig down, it becomes inner, it becomes a
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: half court bank shot off of one rim, and you
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: hope gets.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Totally Arnold, the Triple Lindy, the Rodney dangerfield, off the
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: four different diving boards. All right, I want to I
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: want you mentioned this earlier, and I don't want to not.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: We'll obviously talk about this next week as well, because
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: it will be the day of the primary. But is
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: the Michigan Senate primary between Abdul Elsa Ed and Haley
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Stevens the most important Democratic primary in the country, Senate, governor,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: House anything? Boy, Certainly, I'm just trying to think if
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: there's another one. We thought it might be Platner Mills
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: that didn't kind of happen.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: Certainly feels more consequential for a variety of reasons. One
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: Abdull l s I Ed is but already running for president. Like,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: that's interesting.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: You mentioned that he's remember there's a lane there, there's
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: a lane there, and.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: He's already got the URLs, which he explained the way
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: as he didn't want other people poking.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Sure. Yes, that's why I got the Crystalista president of
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: CNN Business cards. I didn't want anyone else to get him.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: It's interesting to me he seems to almost be leaning
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: into the idea that he's trying to lead a movement,
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: yeah one, rather than saying no, I'm just running to.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: Lower the costs. Correct, I'm running for Michigan Anders. Yes,
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: he never says that first.
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: I think if he loses, we will say his eyes
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: got bigger than I agree, because.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: He started off being very resistant to you're the leader
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: of a national move Now he's decided, Yeah, that's interesting.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: They're all after me.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Well now I'm fine half them, yam, and you will
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: make me, you know, more powerful than ever. Right, But
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you I think you want to know, and
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: look I will. You can prepare the meal of crow
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: and I will eat it. But if a duel, said loses,
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: I think you can have you can credit Mam Donni
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: for the loss. I think Mam Donnie's decision to do
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: his speech to the city on bb and basically arrest
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: arrest Yahoo, Yeah, to lean into this and essentially say no,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: all my all my critics are correct. I'm really here.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: I'm not here to lower the call. I'm not here
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: to make New York training better. This isn't about buses.
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: This is about Israel. I know what I said during
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: the campaign, but pay no attention to I said about
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: a campaign because I'm I am literally doing a speech
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: to the city.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: I'm creating this big event, and I want to have
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: this on the record.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: I want I want to run form policy out of
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: New York City. Now, look, I think if he could
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: run for president, he'd be running for president. Can't run
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: for presurse, that's all dulaied. So my point is is
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: that I do think Mom Donnie, in his own way,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: helped crystallize a little bit of the of of this
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: of this movement.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: He gave it even more shape and direction it very
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: much is now. You know, being anti Israel is sort
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: of almost it's it's about the It's about the only.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: Thing you have to be to get in to the
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: DSA movement, right like.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: That seems to be if you're sort of table sakes,
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: if you put them on everything else. But Israel, I
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: don't think they let you in, right, that's the town, right,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: And so I just think that it is set up.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: It is the stakes keep getting raised. Gary Stevens coming
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: off the sidelines tells you how high this is.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Gary Peters Peters, Yeah, yes, with.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Even former offensive coordinator for the University of Miami. Back then,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: I knew it had I knew it had some kind
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: of sports educator, because I do that all the time,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: big wretch coming out the sideline, and I think it's
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: one of those. I don't know if it's the most
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: important Democratic primary, not in for a presidential race in
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: a few years, but I can tell you this Democrat
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: are behaving like it is.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: Right, ybody's sides arrest. Everybody's all in.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: Whether you're pushing the ships a yeah, everybody's all in
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: on this and it is now.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you this.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: If Stevens wins, Rogers can't paid his toast right, it
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: is because she doesnt perfectly positioned for a general election.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: It is completely because everybody's all in. And I'll do
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: a set, including Mike Rodgers right basically saying, well, as
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: long as he wins, will be okay. So it really
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: it does feel like everybody said, okay, you want to
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: you want to raise the stakes, let's go right, and
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: I'll du it's got ogres on a pike yep, big
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: gretches in.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: I mean it is, and he is leaning maybe he
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: is leaning it. I think what's interesting is that both
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: sides in some ways. Stevens may be less, but the
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: people for Stevens. Both sides are leaning into this. See
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: is the first in a series of exis dential fights
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: for this what the Democratic Party is right? And that's
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: when it gets very very interesting. Like that's when it
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: becomes like because no matter what, let's say he wins. Okay,
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: let's see he wins the primary. He will general see
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: you will see he does. But chuck, you know this
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: as well as I do. The primary is a week
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: from today, August fourth. If Siad wins fifty two forty
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: six or something like that, the story the next day
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: will be Fox will be running Left is taken over.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: The AOC wing will be super energized. There'll be a
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: million quotes from kind of moderate Democrats being like, oh,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: tut tut, you know, like on like, and then they'll
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: be well, beteve it. They'll probably trash Stevens.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: Well she was.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: She was a terrible candidate. Was it a good candidate?
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Right, we could already tell you, of course, if I could,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: I could write.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: You've seen it one forries right, the losses, you know,
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: if I'll duels outside, well, he took his eye off
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: the ball. He got too big for his bridges, like I,
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: you know, we already could there you go, this is
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: what they hate us, right I nobody's true.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: We know true, it's going to work. Two narratives that
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: are coming exactly. And by the way, that's to your point.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: I think I think people always need to keep in
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: mind how important perception is in politics. That you're McCain
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: point forty two in a crushing loss in two thousand
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: and thirty three in a triumphant win eight years later, like,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: it just kind of matters what direction you want you
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: looking at it. True, it is.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: It goes back to the greatest quote Joe Biden never
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: uttered and it's the one that I think it is
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: his best quote. You know, don't judge me by the almighty,
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: judge me by the alternative.
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: Yep. You know.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: Ultimately, politics is about that moment, that that choice you
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: make in the moment you.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: Have to make it.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: It's not some larger nope thing that we all that
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: we turn it into backwards on and yes, you see, yeah, of.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Course history we we always are smart and right twenty
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: twenty hindsight, I've never been wrong on his Chuck, who
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: do you think eight days a week out, who do
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: you think is going to win that primary? I've got
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: I have mine, but I want to hear yours first.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: Well, I know there's a lot of I don't love
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: the polling I'm seeing out of there, right, meaning it's
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: just not not great. And the problem with primary polling
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: is is you can have two ecurate polls and just
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: two different theories. The case correct, but the who's going
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: to vote going to be yeah, you know, yep, thirty
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: five percent and a small difference.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: It's the butterfly effect. A small difference on the front
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: end can lead to a massive alcohol. Right.
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: I feel like abdul Lsied had the momentum a week
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: or so ago, and I feel like it is it
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: is fate been fading, but it feels like he's in
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: the lead and she's closing the gap fast.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: That's what the race feels like to me, And that's right.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: I think that's right. DVH has it forty seven forty one.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: They're polling average. But to your point, there has not
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: been a ton of great polling inside, which is weird
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: that Misschigan does not have great polling because it's a
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: big competitive state, but it doesn't. Wisconsin is much better.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: Well, you got the market polling well and there's not
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: been a an equivalent of it.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: Our friend, University of Michigan, Come on, University of Michigan. Well,
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: they do the consumer Confident survey, which is that great.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: I know that is really good.
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: You're pretty big, trust me. I've tried to get Dante
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: to get Michigan State. He's at Michigan State, right, yeah,
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: into the polling business. So hopefully, well, I think a duel,
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: said will win. I don't think you win by a lot,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: but I think he will win.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: I think he's a better candidate, and I think he
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: will close better because he's a better candidate. I don't
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: think she's a particularly good cannot if they will with
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: the black vote, and I know he has to do
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: well in Detroit, right.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: I agree the anecdotes are terrible for him in the
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: black community. Now that doesn't mean anecdotes are he sometimes
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: just say, of course, but there's been quite a few
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: of them. I mean he is not getting traction in
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: the black community at all, particularly, and.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: That's obviously a prominent Democratic primary, and that's the that's
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: the why. If it were any other state, i'd agree
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: with you that this.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: I think it's up due LSI ed like definitely gonna win. Now,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: I'm only have my doubts because man, do progressives and
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: Muslims have a hard time sometimes?
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they don't black commit, They don't play well in
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: the black community, no question. I mean that's what Bernie Sanders.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: I mean dsa kind of aligned. Okay, I got three
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: minutes for this, Chuck. The Washington Nationals our team are
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: the biggest day for us, maybe the trading deadline, not
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: the Michigan primary, which is also coming up in early
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: all day before the Missigan. Yes, they've done a one
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: for one swap. They got a pitcher from the Red
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: Sox for Curtis Mead. We had a lot of hitting
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: at third base and he was kind of blocking that up.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Are we should we be? Okay, do you want us
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: to be buyer sellers or standpat at the t a deadline?
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: And then do you think we will be buyer sellers
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: or broadly sort of stand pat? And I would say
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: stan pat would mean don't trade Foster Griffin and don't
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: trade c J. Abrams. I would assume what is untouchable?
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: All right? I don't let's Foster Griffin's on a one
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: year deal. Dude. Yeah, so we trade though I think
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: you trade it. I totally. He's thirty years old, it is,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: he says at fifty. But like he's a journeyman who's
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: having an amazing year.
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: Who maybe figured it out in Japane and is going
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: to have three great years and we're gonna go, God damn.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: It, we had him and no, no, no, no, right,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: but we would have to sign him to a big
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: deal no matter what. So you know, either you make
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: the decision to sign him right now before he gets
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: a chance to go to the open market, which I
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: bet he would do no matter what.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know who the hell knows, because you got
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: the baseball blockout that's coming.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: That's right and burd in the hands. And he's not
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: a guy who's made three hundred million dollars.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: I think if you believe in Foster Griffin, he's actually
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: signed him to like a three year deal, three year
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: deal right now, because I bet.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: He take it. He's not had a three year dealome
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: So anyway, yeah, either here or there. It's not a
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: cj Abrams calculation where it's like I'm going or wan
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: so do I'm going to the open market? I have
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: with trading. C. J.
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: Abrams is that he's twenty five, Like, isn't this rebuild
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: supposed to be contending in the next couple of years?
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Well, if c J. Abram's going to be like totally agree,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: how long are we going to be in? And also
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: our trust the process?
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Do you know you do you have another all star
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: short stuff just in the cupboard?
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: Do you have any left handed hitting thirty plus home
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: run two sixty average? They don't come along.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: Then often, Well more importantly, I do think, Look, it
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: is true we were trying to trade CJ. In the
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: off season. I think now he's the price is too high. Yeah,
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: and maybe we won't. We have no interest in it anymore,
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: and we maybe we shouldn't. And can I just make
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: one other point of course, so we have a podcast, Chuck, Yeah,
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: you're right. I one of the things that I'm you know,
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: when you go to a Nationals game, it's it's a
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: there's only two or three other baseball crowds in the
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: major leagues that are as diverse as.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: The Washington d C. Base Yep, it's a very diverse city.
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: It's actually a very black city, which I think is
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: going to speak to your point, correct, And there's there's
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: not a lot of superstar African American athletes in baseball.
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: The Nationals have two correct of arguably the four best
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: African Americans in baseball, with Rookie Betts and Aaron Judge
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: being uh being the same, you have the same conversation,
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: and you know, there's I know Byron bust In and
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: I can ye there are.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Some, but it's just not a huge It's an Hispanic
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: dominated Hispanic and white dominated and then increasingly Asian, you know, yes,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: you know. So it just I want to see d
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: C to have embrace that totally and like.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: Don't trade the kid from only Maryland, mister James would
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: I know, And.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: He's literally from here, and and keep and keep CJ.
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: And to me, C James is you can make you
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: can build a DC brand around him. So I think
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: it's a good man. I hope we keep. I hope
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: we look.
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: We got to make this as a business case to
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: the learners. This is more money in your pocket if
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: you do it right.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: More butts and seats, more butts and seats. Okay, I
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: got a run the Chuck podcast many times a week,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: Dynastic Chuck's pod with Ja Donde just.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: Interviewed Patrick McEnroe and Chris mckendrey about about Wimbledon.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: About Wimbledon. Oh, that's awesome. I I think I love
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: Patrick McEnroe.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: I've gotten to know him a little bit. He's just
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: such a great guy.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: Chuck has Beyond the Pod with Chuck Todd on Substack
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: and we do Super Tuesday literally comes out every Tuesday
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: early like subscribe, comment, tell your friends, tell your enemies,
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: you know, all the good things. Thank you, my friend.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Next week, one day from the Michigan primary, we will
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: be a lot.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: The real commitment we have to make is do we
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: start taping before or after the trade deadline on August.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: I think we should do it after because we'll have
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: a lot to talk about, a lot to say about them.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe they'll have to break it into two several months,
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: the politics and then US Baseball Nerd Pod. Well, do
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: all right, my friend, I'll see you next week.