Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / $2,000 Tariff Checks Sparking Altcoin & ETF Surge?🚀Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg

Transcript

$2,000 Tariff Checks Sparking Altcoin & ETF Surge?🚀Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's dive into maybe an all coin season. Starting to
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: correct here xrpetf's launching, and of course Trump is announcing
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: a stimulus check. All of that will break it down
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: for you. It's going to be a good one. Before
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: we get started, I do want to thank our sponsor,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: and that is Coinbase a great place for you guys
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: to get into crypto, maybe.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: For the first time.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: And by the way, we have a lot of brand
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: new viewers that are coming out of the channel. I
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: know you guys are thinking about crypto, maybe getting into
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: digital assets. Coinbase is the spot for you.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: All you have to do is, of course, use our link.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: You're going to get up to two hundred bucks to
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: get involved there and you can earn up to two
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: thousand when you buy your first fifty bucks in crypto.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: So check it out.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Use our link. It does help the channel. I'm going
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: to open up with Stephen mcclerk, who's coming in from
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Canary Capital. You guys have seen Canary over the years
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: and months that we've talked to Stephen.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: How are you fantastic, Paul, how are you doing.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So it's a big week for you, by the way,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: you kind of have something going on.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: Oh, it's a huge week for us.
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: We're very excited about the possibilities that we're seeing on Thursday.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Well we're not talking in code here.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: The reality is this bit wise Franklin Templeton, twenty one Shares,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Canary and coin Shares all getting the x r P
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: ETFs now listen on the DTC platform. That usually means
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: that we have something brewing on an ETF actually going alive,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: and of course Canary Capital being one of them that
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: will go. Well, first of all, let's talk about XRPC.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Tell me a little bit of why this is better
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: than some of the others that are going to launch.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Sell it to me, Sell it to me.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: Man, I'm involved, of course. Look, you know, we we've
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: we've been a we've been a big fan of x
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: RP for a long time, you know. I you know,
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: even during the even during the time when when when
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: Ripple was going through all of it, I would call
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: it persecution. They went through a persecution. They took one
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: for the team. And when I say the team, everybody
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: that's involved in crypto. A lot of the things that
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: they did and they fought for ended up playing out
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: to to be you know where we are today if
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: it wasn't for them, you know, fighting back against against
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: that persecution. So we've been right there alongside them with
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: them supporting them. They've they've they've supported us. I'm a
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: big fan of Brad Garland House. I'm a big fan
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: of that team, and uh, you know, we can't wait
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: to really, you know, get this thing out there and
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: to let the world have an.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: X r P E t F in the US.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: So you feel that right now that because I think
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: a lot of companies that have been with Ripple since
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: the beginning, or at least during the a lot of
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: their trials are being rewarded. You know, I'll mention a
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: handful out there I'll pull of course is in crazy
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: growth scale. Possibly Canary could be leading the charge in
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: terms of an x r P E t F and
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: a handful of other companies that have kind of recognized
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Ripple as being one of the star warts of the industry.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: You think that is going to be one of the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: convincing factors of investors saying if I'm going to buy
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: an et F, it's going to be over here at Canary.
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: Look, I mean the reality is they're all good. I mean,
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: you know a lot of the issuers that are that
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: are that are doing this, they ETFs are a bit
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: of a commodity.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: I'll just be honest.
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: It's you know, it's not going to make a huge
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: difference going from one or another. I think the big,
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: the big deciding factor for us is because you know,
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: we have been in the crypto space for a very
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: long time, our security is top notch and that's actually
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: probably you know, one of the few deciding factors on
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: this right because you know, we actually are responsible for
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: cyber secure and us moving coin from one exchange to
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: another or selling it and buying it into the market.
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: So security is probably probably the biggest factor, which which
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: we're really up to speed on. That's that's probably you
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: know where most of our team is cryptonative. We understand
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: the nuances, we understand flaws of the past, mistakes of
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: the past. You know, if you go back over the
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: last dozen or so years, you know, there's there's there's
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: a lot of issues that you have to overcome, and
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: we've seen it and we've avoided it. For instance, you
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: know ft X when it went down, we didn't have
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: a dime in FTX, so you know, We're pretty good
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: at evaluating software and exchanges and people that we work with,
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: and we feel like that we've we've done the best
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: that we can here.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Well, I think security is and could be one of
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: the big differentiators out there at rates will be another one,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I think to a certain extent, you know, because there
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: will be competitive elements around that. When you look at
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: the flow that we've seen with Solana, the b sol
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: bitwise did a great job getting that one out on
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: the on the.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: Ground and absolutely crazy numbers.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: One of the best performing ETFs that we've seen so far,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: especially in digital assets. How do you think these XRP
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: ETFs will perform against that?
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually think that XRP will probably double what
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: Solana did in its first week and even today as
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: far as volume and as far as total aum. If
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: you just even look at the market caps of the
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: two tokens, xrps about fifty percent higher than Solana. But
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: the difference is and we experienced this with HBAR last
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: week or two weeks ago now, the h BAR ETF
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: experienced seventy million dollars in inflows just in the first
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: three days. And it's because it's really well known among
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: institution circuit circles enterprise investors. So even though it's not
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: a big retail product, it doesn't have a ton of volume,
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: it's got the right kind of interest. And that's how
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: XRP is. Solon is probably a little bit more of
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: a retail token. Xrpiece much more of a financial services
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: enterprise institutional token. And when you put that into an ETF,
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: even though it's only fifty percent more market capital'll probably
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: be one hundred percent or two hundred percent more inflows
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: because of the institutional weliance.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, the retail if you want to call it retail,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: is looking forward on this right now. That's the XRPCHR
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: guys looking at the four hour with the likelihood of
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: being the top performer on the day, which is up
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: like seven percent right now comparison to say, just Bitcoin
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: up about one percent. Even if you compare it to Solana,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: which just had their launch last week, currently up about
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: one point six. So maybe the market is starting to
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: gravitate toward XRP because of these ETF launches. Not that
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: necessarily that will move the token, but it will definitely
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: bring more awareness around XRP as a whole. What about
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: when you look at us, because I'm looking at some
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: other assets out there that have the potential for maybe
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: going next level, and the one I'm watching right now
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: is Sweet.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: This was a tweet by you three.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Highest convictions light Coin stoci light we know about that.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Then you had Swee in here. Obviously we've had the
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Sweet team on here coming in from Facebook, Evan and
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: his team and Vine and then injective protocol. What do
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: you think about a suite ETF would that work?
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: Oh? Absolutely so?
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: And maybe even to back up a little bit, just
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: to just to point out light Coin, there has been
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: a massive resurgence in the demand for privacy, total privacy.
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: Light Point just recently integrated a privacy feature via a
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: mimble wimble. So if you look at the charts, you're
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: seeing a narrow z cash both jump into the top
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: twenty in the last week. And white coin is also
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: benefiting from that resurgence in in in privacy tokens. Even
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: though it's not fully private, you can make your wallets
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: private and that so that's that's really starting to come in.
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: So so that's a big area right now that I
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: want to be watching. As far as protocols, Goh suite
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: and you know, in my opinion, is one of the
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: top points out there. I think, you know, it's already
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: it's already surpassed Ethereum as far as functionality. It's surpassed
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: Solana in my opinion as far as functionality goes. And
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: it's just a matter of time before it replaces Solana
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: as the next protocol token coming out. And you know, so, look,
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: I I've got I've got a lot of respect for
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: that team and what they're building, and they're doing it slowly, they're.
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: Doing it right.
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: It's not a big you know, VC pumping up like
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: some of these other ones are.
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: It's it's it.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: They truly are building first and it's it's really amazing.
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: And then you go down the line to Injective, that's
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: sort of like the you know, to me, that's the
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: dark horse, It's it's a it's a it's a much
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: smaller market cap token. But they're doing everything right there.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: Their team is very solid, they're not spending crazy money
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: on marketing. They're they're really building things. And one of
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: the really cool things that they're building right now is
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: actually some integrations with with with XRP Ledger.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: So I'm very excited to see that.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking at the four hour chart on injective.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: It has come off the floor a little bit back
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: on the sixth, So nice a little move there. That
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: was a big statement that you're talking about Sui that
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: could possibly take over as one of the major protocols A.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Salona has a very good market position and has had
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: for quite some time. Beyond the team and what Sui
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: has done in general. Is there anything that kind of
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: draws you into the Sui network more importantly and that
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: you would say over Salona? Is it the gaming side
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: of it or is it something else?
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: Well, and it actually came out of the gaming side.
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: Is I don't know if we've talked about this, Paul,
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: but I actually worked at a video game company for part.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Of my count Wow, okay, oh you.
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: Were Yeah, I was a ea, you know I was.
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: I was there when we launched the very first mobile game.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: On the right.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: You're you're dating yourself here, Steve.
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I took a little break from financial services and
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: enjoyed a video game company building, you.
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: Know, for leading application. It was a lot of fun.
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: But so I pay really close attention to to to
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: things that are built for games because it really is
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: mass adoption. I mean, that's that's what people care about.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: Everybody plays games on their phone, yea at some point
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: in the day. But when when Sweet first came out
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: and it was really focused on that, I mean I
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: remember going back to Facebook Games and it's a lot
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: of the same team. So even though they haven't put
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: a massive focus on games recently, the technologies there and
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: they're utilizing that technology for other applications. So I really
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: care about things like speed, security, and uptime, and those
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: are the three areas where they've where they've really beat
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: out the Salona And if they're at now, Salona also
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: has a very they have a great team as well.
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: I'm not you know, I'm not really you know.
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: Trying to compare there, but but it really is it's
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: a it's a newer protocol that has all the elements
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: to be a you know, a really great network.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Well, I think the key is execution, as it is
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: with many of these companies, partnership execution. I you know,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: we keep thinking that Suh, He's going to do some
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: pretty crazy things in terms of big announcements, which we've
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: talked about and speculated around Pokemon and many of the
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: other things that could flow into that chain. So we're
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: definitely watching that one closely. I want to move over
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: to more of the macro side of things because if
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: you look at the all coin season right now and
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: you kind of compare in general to what's happening with
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the potential of a Trump stimulus check. This of course
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: was Trump saying every American who isn't a high come,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: high income earner is going to get two thousand, is
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: going to get two grand back in cash.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: So there was this statement right there.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Including not including high income people, will be paid to everyone.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: This could the last time we had stimulus like this,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: We saw this go into the crypto markets. Uh, do
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: you think we'll see this going into trad crypto or
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: do you think they'll go into more of the dejon
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: crypto side, mean coins things like that.
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: Well, look, you know, if I were to receive a
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: two thousand dollars stimulus check, it's going straight into DraftKings.
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: That's why we do with it.
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: But you know, but yeah, but that what that tells
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: you though, is you know, I'm an interesting case. But
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: but usually when people get found money like that, it's like,
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: I mean, are they are they going to save it
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: or are they going to buy grocery. Now, They're gonna
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: they're gonna invest it, they're gonna gamble with it, They're
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: going to.
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: You know, take some risk with found money.
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: It always happens, right, So what I think will happen
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: will It'll probably more benefit the trad side of crypto
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: because most people have access to you know, brokerage accounts
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: that they can trade in as opposed to you know
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: defy or exchanges.
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: So anything that has an ETF around.
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: It, I think will definitely benefit from these stimulus checks,
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: even more so than more more of the pure DeFi
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: side of things.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: You wouldn't go with like hey, I'm gonna put fifty
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: in trad and ETFs and maybe fifty pudge penguins.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: You know some people would do that, of course, but
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: but but look, it's it's all about access too, and
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: most people just don't have access to the ability to
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: buy pudgy penguins or invest in and DeFi.
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: So really it's going to be through TraFi rails and
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: things that are probably a little bit more risk involible,
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: which would be crypto.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Well, and I think the scenario is the comparison to
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: back then, the last time we saw stimmy come through
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: and where we are today, because I think a lot
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: more people are either on robin Hood, maybe on Coinbase,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: on traditional you know exchanges out there. They may not
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: be in the DeFi market, but you can get access
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: to a lot of this stuff out there. But also,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: you know, you can be able to buy us some
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: ETFs out there, some high flying ETFs.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: So I understand, listen, understand su that too. That too.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit more about where we could
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: see the issue with bitcoin because this is something that
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: we've talked about here on the show. Here recently, Kathy
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Wood came out basically said, hey, we're we're reducing our
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: long term outlook for bitcoin by a significant amount. It
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: was three hundred K and this was the twenty thirty prediction.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: When you look at what we're seeing right now. Well,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: first of all, what were your thoughts on Kathy flip
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: flopping a little bit on this?
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: I saw that as a sign of the bottom.
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: So when you have high profile people adjusting their price
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: targets down because they've been in so much pain. And
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: it wasn't just Kathy, as several other people as well,
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: like Okay yeah, now we're at the bottom because now
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: you're seeing real capitulation and that could and sure enough,
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: when a lot of these new price targets came out,
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: whether twenty thirty or this year, yeah, you know, we
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: saw novocrats come out and kind of backstepped. Yeah maybe
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: it's like one twenty Okay, yeah, not Now we're at
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: the bottom. All this capitulation is gonna is really that sign?
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: So sure enough we're here we go and I do believe,
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm still holding firm to my one forty
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: for the year twenty thirty.
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: Who knows what happens?
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, five years old.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Well, but I think she's you know, her positioning was
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: really built around stable coins as being one of the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: arch nemesis, I guess overall, and if you look at
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: the growth that we've seen in a fairly significant town,
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: what are your thoughts in general about the market condition,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: because you know, I've kind of talked about this one
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: forty being a bitcoin target for end of year. Who
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: knows what twenty twenty six will hold. Are you pushing
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: into twenty twenty six on the market in terms of
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the next bulltop or do you feel like this could
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: still happen this quarter.
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: You know, it's one of those things where I'll you know,
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: you'll know it when you see it. I'm not certain
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: if we hit a top in November or January or
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: February or even December, but I think we will know
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: it when we see it. It does seem that things
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: were delayed a little bit this year versus other years.
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: But but again, you know, if you look at every
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: four your cycle, the top is in a different month,
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: it's not going to be you know, an exact science
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: of saying, well, Okay, it's going to happen every October,
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: it's going to happen every December.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: So it is possible that this gets pushed out a
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: little bit.
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: But but yeah, it's kind of hard to say now
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: when that's going to be, but we're certainly bullish in
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: them up in November.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Do you think that the Clarity Act slow down potential
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: could cause us to see another crash if we see
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: Clarity get.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Pushed into twenty twenty six.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, because right now polymarket has this thing continuing
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: to decline in terms of probability for twenty twenty five.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: Does that have any factor going into to the market.
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: Don't I don't think it has a massive factor. I
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: do believe that it is a small contributor. But at
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: the same time, we have so much regulatory clarity now
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: under the new SEC, under the Trump administration. You know,
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: you've seen a lot of the lawsuits dismissed against some
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: of the exchanges, against Ripple, against some some other folks,
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: you know, cz getting pardon. I mean, these are really massive,
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: massive actions that prove out, you know, what what what
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: true clarity is. So and then and then of course
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: all the all coin ETFs that are that are that
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: are going out right now. I mean, you know they're there.
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: It's it's not it's not a complete free for all,
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: you know, I think I think some people believe that
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: that's the case. But it's not a complete free for all.
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: The SEC is not reviewing every application that comes in.
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: They are still holding off on some but but but
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: but I do think the clarity UH in the market,
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: or the regulatory clarity, not necessarily the clarity hack UH
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: is pretty firm and uh, anything in addition to that
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: will make it better.
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: But but we're already in a great place. I don't
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: I don't think it'll hurt it.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, So government shutdown has been happening. Obviously the market
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: kind of take that on the chin. Likelihood though, is
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: we're going to see a government reopening, possibly this week
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: from the looks of it right now, at least early
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: in the week, So there are some indicators. But at
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: the same time, we could see another issue brewing in December,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: which would be the Republicans voting on the ACA distributions.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Would that be.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Another factor that could diminish the opportunity here for a
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: run up on bitcoin towards end of year because that
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: would be in December.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it could.
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, look, the economy already has a lot of cracks,
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: so it's the broad economy, not necessarily crypto that's in danger,
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: you know, I say it's not in danger, but there's
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: risk and anything that creates further cracks. I mean, even
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: the government being shut down, there's people that haven't been
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: getting paychecks, which means that they're not spending, which hurts
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: consumer confidence, which hurts retail sales, which hurts people getting paid.
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: There's been a lot of layoffs even Amazon ahead of
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: the Christmas season, which is really interesting to watch. So
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: it's it's it's going to be you know, I think
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: anything could certainly slow down the broader economy and broader
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: risk assets continuing to surge. Crypto is a bit behind
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: other risk assets right now, so we're probably going to
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: be in a big catchup phase in November. But outside
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: of that, I mean, we're watching the economy very closely
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: for further cructs. Employments important, inflation is important, and even
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: imports and exports are very important.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: What do you think comes in on all the data
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: that's been pent up in terms of kind of a
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: big release. Do you think we're going to see a
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: lot of negative impact on this in terms of data
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: flowing into the FED right now?
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: I don't. I don't think it'll be a lot of
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: necessarily negative impact.
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: What I think we're going to see the most of
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: is jobs data that forces the BED to cut rates
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: further in December. And look, if I was running the FED,
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: I would cut fifty basis points in December, you know.
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: And what people have to keep in mind, a lot
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: of people out there just think that you know, that
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: controls all rates, But right now we're still in an
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: inverted rate curve, which means that you're getting rewarded for
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: taking lower duration risk and higher duration risk because of
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: the way the curve is, and the FED really needs
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: to bring the lower into the curve back to a
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: level to where people are getting rewarded for risk in
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: a normal way. Right now that the fed's fund rate
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: is just artificially holding the short end of the curve up.
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: But if they were to.
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: Bring rates lower by fifty basis points, we'd have closer
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: to a normal curve and you might even see some
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: of the longer into the curve going up and rate,
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: which is which actually I think needs to happen.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: So what is your theory for December pause or do
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: you think we get a cut?
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, my theory for December is probably just another twenty
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: five basis point cut and which which won't be great.
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: But the other thing that the FED did too was
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: they've stated that they're going to pause unwinding the balance
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: sheet starting on December one. I actually think that that's
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: a that's a bad policy. I'd rather see. I'd rather
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: see two cuts in December and continuing on unwinding the
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: longer data assets.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, all right, man, we get a lot happening
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: here right now. Over the next few weeks. This is
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: going to be a very busy market going into the holidays,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: and of course December could be lining up for some
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: interesting things, even if we are looming into another government
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: shutdown in January.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: If this acc thing doesn't come through, so lots happening.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Steven will definitely have you back on to chat about that,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: and I definitely want to see how the x rp
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: ETFs perform and we might bring you back on to
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: do a victory lab here a few weeks.
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: I love that. Hopefully it's a victory lap.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Let's let's let's hope for that, all right, Stephen's great
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: having you, Thanks for coming in today.
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: Thanks Paul, you bet all right.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: You guys know what to do.
• 23:05
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• 23:06
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• 23:10
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• 23:11
  Speaker 1: It's just at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: right here on the Paul Baron Show.