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Tariff Market Chaos Looms!🔥Crypto Macro Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:06
Speaker 1: All right, so today we're going to get into tariff
0:08
Speaker 1: chaos and how this is affecting the crypto market. Stick around.
0:11
Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barreon. Welcome back in a tech path.
0:13
Speaker 1: All right, I want to thank our sponsor today and
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Speaker 1: get into your own crypto IRA, you can jump over
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Speaker 1: down below to get a one hundred dollars funding reward
0:24
Speaker 1: to get started. All right, let's go into a couple
0:27
Speaker 1: of things today. I want to kind of start with tariffs.
0:30
Speaker 1: I think everybody's obviously kind of looking at this, but
0:33
Speaker 1: at the same time that we see this inbound tariff
0:37
Speaker 1: possible chaos hitting tomorrow, the market seems to be up.
0:41
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is actually rising. There's a few things to look
0:44
Speaker 1: at here. Let me kind of zoom in on that
0:45
Speaker 1: for you guys. Total market cap rising by approximately almost
0:48
Speaker 1: four percent in the last twenty four which is two
0:50
Speaker 1: point seven up to two point seven trillion on April second,
0:54
Speaker 1: could hit Bitcoin taking a nice move. And of course
0:57
Speaker 1: everybody's looking at this of maybe just a reprieve prior
1:01
Speaker 1: to tomorrow when we start to see a lot of this
1:04
Speaker 1: chaos or resolve itself. But recent weeks have seen crypto
1:07
Speaker 1: obviously retreat. Many people have seen it. I kind of
1:10
Speaker 1: thought we'd see a little bit lower bitcoin than what
1:13
Speaker 1: we have now. It doesn't mean we won't get another
1:15
Speaker 1: seventy nine k bitcoin, but I was a bit surprised
1:18
Speaker 1: as it started to move. Possible shift in sentiment could
1:21
Speaker 1: be underway, and also investors are positioning themselves maybe ahead
1:24
Speaker 1: of tomorrow's market moving news. So I want to go
1:27
Speaker 1: over to Arthur Hayes. He's explaining why bitcoin's price could
1:30
Speaker 1: skyrocket this year, and there's a few points within this.
1:34
Speaker 1: He's claiming around two fifty would be the high for
1:38
Speaker 1: this year twenty twenty five QT twist will flood the
1:41
Speaker 1: markets and weeken the dollar. He's saying that could make
1:44
Speaker 1: things get very interesting as we parallel gold as possibly
1:48
Speaker 1: a QE search quantitative eavening searche. Hayes also views bitcoin
1:52
Speaker 1: as its current bottom at the start of the strong
1:56
Speaker 1: upward trend that we saw. So that was around seventy six,
1:58
Speaker 1: So we believe that. Let me know, because I'm kind
2:01
Speaker 1: of curious. I don't think we're going to see it
2:04
Speaker 1: below that again. At least with the current narrative that's
2:07
Speaker 1: playing out now. Granted, things could get dicey with what
2:11
Speaker 1: Trump is doing, but under what we know right now,
2:13
Speaker 1: which is still very limited, it's possible we could have
2:17
Speaker 1: already seen Bitcoin's bottom, And of course Hayes agrees with that,
2:20
Speaker 1: already bodying at seventeen or seventy six five. He also
2:23
Speaker 1: likens this current position to gold's reaction to q Ean
2:27
Speaker 1: eight and nine. If you go back and look at
2:29
Speaker 1: the market at that time, liquidity injections led to this
2:33
Speaker 1: huge run up of anti fiat assets, and I think
2:36
Speaker 1: that would be very similar to what could happen with
2:39
Speaker 1: bitcoin as well. I want to also go over to
2:43
Speaker 1: this right here, because this is goal prices right now,
2:45
Speaker 1: absolutely insane twenty percent year to date. I mean, we
2:48
Speaker 1: haven't seen these kind of numbers, I think, for a
2:51
Speaker 1: very long time. And gold up to thirty one to
2:54
Speaker 1: sixty one per ounce right now.
2:56
Speaker 2: Will it hold?
2:57
Speaker 1: Is the question? As it soares nineteen percent just in
3:00
Speaker 1: the quarter. A lot of people are asking that question
3:03
Speaker 1: right now. Would you sell your gold at this point?
3:07
Speaker 1: Or is this one of those things where we could
3:09
Speaker 1: hold through based on all this chaof take a look
3:12
Speaker 1: at this clip.
3:13
Speaker 3: If all this actually works out in our favor, I
3:18
Speaker 3: could imagine a different type of inflation issue, which is
3:21
Speaker 3: an employment problem, which is if you actually bring all
3:23
Speaker 3: the business back here, which would be a great thing
3:25
Speaker 3: in some respects, you'd also have an inflationary effect because
3:30
Speaker 3: you'd actually not have enough people for the jobs.
3:33
Speaker 4: But it takes time. I think the major issue now
3:35
Speaker 4: in inflation is that the supply chains are getting disrupted again,
3:40
Speaker 4: and people have a recent memory of inflation. That's the
3:44
Speaker 4: problem is they remember when we spiked at over nine percent.
3:49
Speaker 4: So people's companies, in particular agility and adjusting prices is
3:55
Speaker 4: much higher than it was a few years ago. That's
3:57
Speaker 4: a concern, so you get preemptive price increases starting to
4:00
Speaker 4: see that. That's my main word. You don't want a
4:03
Speaker 4: second inflation shock, so soon after you've had.
4:06
Speaker 3: One, given your optimism, you think you should short gold
4:09
Speaker 3: right now.
4:10
Speaker 4: No, I think gold has broken every correlation. And I
4:14
Speaker 4: said this last time on here. It is seen by
4:16
Speaker 4: many central banks as a way to diversify at themogin
4:21
Speaker 4: away from the dollar, and that's going to continue.
4:23
Speaker 5: Now.
4:23
Speaker 1: It's kind of interesting what Sorkhenmlsen was talking about, and
4:27
Speaker 1: that is the amount of onboarding of jobs back in
4:30
Speaker 1: the United States. I'm a little bit questioning that, but
4:33
Speaker 1: I do agree with Muhammad in the sense that there
4:37
Speaker 1: are a lot of companies. I look at the restaurant
4:39
Speaker 1: industry a lot of this because they're reacting quickly to
4:42
Speaker 1: these tariffs, and I think this could be preemptive pricing,
4:46
Speaker 1: which could again fuel inflation, which again gets back into
4:51
Speaker 1: the scenario where it would be good for risk assets.
4:53
Speaker 1: So not saying that inflation is good, but when you're
4:56
Speaker 1: trying to play against it, and hedge gold right now
4:59
Speaker 1: possibly bitcoin playing in very tightly, other things that are happening.
5:03
Speaker 1: This has never happened in history. US trade policy uncertainty
5:06
Speaker 1: index now twenty five percent above Trump's trade war one
5:10
Speaker 1: point oh high, and that was his last administration. But
5:14
Speaker 1: the S and P right now down ten and a
5:15
Speaker 1: half percent in six weeks and in correction, territory rationing
5:20
Speaker 1: about three trillion in four trading days. Guys, this is
5:23
Speaker 1: this is a big deal because it is taking a
5:26
Speaker 1: lot of wealth away from what has been traditionally big
5:31
Speaker 1: asset managers in a lot of the main primary people
5:34
Speaker 1: that are trading securities right now. This is not an
5:37
Speaker 1: April fool's joke. Commodities are historically undervalued and the media
5:40
Speaker 1: is four and now we're below one on this chart.
5:44
Speaker 1: So if commodities are undervalued, like gold, silver, you could
5:47
Speaker 1: look at those along with other commodities. Could we see
5:51
Speaker 1: the bottom in that right now? And currently maybe seeing
5:55
Speaker 1: the performance of what we've seen with of course gold
5:58
Speaker 1: and many people would say, well that bigcin coin as
6:00
Speaker 1: a commodity, it's no different, And I think that's another
6:02
Speaker 1: factor that we'll play into this. Mag Sevin also is
6:06
Speaker 1: playing into this because they have officially entered a bear
6:09
Speaker 1: market after falling twenty percent off its peak, so the
6:11
Speaker 1: market has completely corrected. If we see a continued downslide
6:15
Speaker 1: on this, that would concern me because that would start
6:19
Speaker 1: to have a lot of domino effects in securities in general.
6:22
Speaker 1: I want to go to another clip because this is
6:24
Speaker 1: the impact on businesses that could be coming. Take a look.
6:28
Speaker 2: Not scientific, but our calculations are. Then about fifty two
6:32
Speaker 2: percent of the sample, which is about four hundred comments,
6:34
Speaker 2: disapprove of the tariffs, forty eight percent approve, opposing retailers
6:40
Speaker 2: and importers supporting manufacturers, agriculture and commercial fishing divided. Interestingly,
6:47
Speaker 2: we're exporters, some of who face trade barriers getting into
6:50
Speaker 2: other countries. Others fear retaliation.
6:53
Speaker 3: Once the tariffs are put in place or announced, at
6:57
Speaker 3: least historically, how long of the debates about them and
7:01
Speaker 3: the reciprocal debate taken place before they get either locked in?
7:05
Speaker 3: I mean, they may get locked in, but does the
7:08
Speaker 3: reciprocal taraffs then force the hand for everything to change
7:11
Speaker 3: all over again.
7:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have a definitive take for sure. I
7:15
Speaker 2: guess that's why you've been debating it all morning. I mean,
7:18
Speaker 2: I think that the problem has always been both the
7:23
Speaker 2: process and the policy. What you find, Andrew, is that
7:27
Speaker 2: there's a lot of people who are figured out a
7:29
Speaker 2: way to do business in the current system. You blow
7:32
Speaker 2: it up. Everybody has to figure out how to do
7:34
Speaker 2: business all over again. We've somehow arrived at a I
7:38
Speaker 2: don't know a daton between all the countries, and now
7:41
Speaker 2: it's all going to be thrown up in the air.
7:43
Speaker 2: I think the other question, Andrew, is what's the greater
7:47
Speaker 2: macro good here? And most economists think it's with lower tars.
7:53
Speaker 1: All right, So two things to really consider here is
7:55
Speaker 1: the business impact. I think this is maybe the issue
7:59
Speaker 1: that Trump's White House has not really taken into full consideration,
8:03
Speaker 1: and that is the looming effect that are incremental, so
8:07
Speaker 1: to speak. When you look at businesses, because we'll go
8:09
Speaker 1: back to the restaurant industry, any import industry that are
8:13
Speaker 1: bringing in products and goods out of the country. What
8:16
Speaker 1: they're dealing with is a trickle down effect into the markets.
8:19
Speaker 1: And obviously that will affect jobs, that will affect prices,
8:22
Speaker 1: and I think it's going to affect the largest sector
8:24
Speaker 1: out there, which is retail. Retail I think is going
8:27
Speaker 1: to be the one to watch very closely. Another clip
8:30
Speaker 1: that they get into is where markets are maybe in
8:34
Speaker 1: denial with all of this, because it's very possible this
8:37
Speaker 1: could have get a lot worse before it gets better.
8:39
Speaker 1: Take a look.
8:40
Speaker 5: But basically, we've unwound about sixty to seventy years of
8:43
Speaker 5: tariff reductions in two and a half months now. The
8:46
Speaker 5: way I think about that is every hundred basis points
8:49
Speaker 5: you raise that weighted average tariff is about ten basis
8:52
Speaker 5: points of core inflation. Takes months for that to show up. Obviously,
8:56
Speaker 5: a lot of importers tried to front load their purchases
8:58
Speaker 5: before the inauguration wing tariffs were coming. So I think
9:01
Speaker 5: you're going to start to see this in inflation. We
9:03
Speaker 5: have to May or June. And why I'm going through
9:05
Speaker 5: all of this is that's the inflation. Then the GDP
9:08
Speaker 5: impact really occurs. And at some point corporate profits do
9:11
Speaker 5: get affect margins because you know, when you go to
9:14
Speaker 5: Walmart or Target, or when the prices go up by
9:17
Speaker 5: a material amount, you don't buys Mouchy.
9:19
Speaker 3: You don't think that's reflected in this equity market right now?
9:21
Speaker 5: I don't. I think there's still more risk to the downside.
9:23
Speaker 5: And by the way, we haven't we talked about retaliation, right.
9:26
Speaker 3: How much more risk to the downside now?
9:28
Speaker 5: I can easily see another five to ten percent downside
9:30
Speaker 5: in the S and P five hundred from here. I
9:31
Speaker 5: don't think it's apocalyptic, but if.
9:34
Speaker 3: Five or ten percent is sort of the limit to you, I.
9:37
Speaker 5: Think it's early to be just trying to step in now.
9:39
Speaker 5: But the way I'm thinking about is this is an
9:41
Speaker 5: opportunity to reconfigure your portfolios. All right.
9:45
Speaker 1: So I don't know how to respond to that guy,
9:48
Speaker 1: because that is an apocalypt five or ten percent off
9:51
Speaker 1: of where we are now. That would be thirty percent
9:55
Speaker 1: off of the MAG seven, which really drive most of
9:58
Speaker 1: the market. What is getting at though, is we could
10:01
Speaker 1: see a pretty big impact in summer in terms of
10:05
Speaker 1: where this impact is going to come on inflation. And
10:09
Speaker 1: I think that's a bigger issue because when you look
10:11
Speaker 1: at summer, a lot of spending by retail is done,
10:15
Speaker 1: consumers is done during the summer months. Obviously, ifications all
10:18
Speaker 1: sorts of doneing out you know, travel, you name it,
10:21
Speaker 1: that may be having a much larger and looming impact.
10:25
Speaker 1: And I think this is the factor that you've got
10:27
Speaker 1: to look at. The Atlanta Fed right now just revise
10:29
Speaker 1: their Q one GDP estimate lower again to minus three
10:34
Speaker 1: point seven and adjusting for gold imports and exports, the
10:37
Speaker 1: Fed now sees about negative one point four on a
10:40
Speaker 1: GDP contraction just in Q one this year. So we
10:43
Speaker 1: are wrapped up here in Q one the likelihood of
10:48
Speaker 1: us seeing this go because remember just two months ago
10:50
Speaker 1: it was plus three eight.
10:52
Speaker 4: This is a huge.
10:52
Speaker 1: Swing, and I think that's the thing that you have
10:55
Speaker 1: to look at because this starts to point to a
10:58
Speaker 1: possible recession and I know you guys don't like hearing that,
11:01
Speaker 1: but again, if we start to see hard times, then
11:05
Speaker 1: you have to start to look at assets that can
11:07
Speaker 1: possibly make it through that. Now, maybe if we will
11:09
Speaker 1: say okay gold, that's why we're seeing the gold move.
11:12
Speaker 1: I believe bitcoin and other digital assets will probably start
11:15
Speaker 1: to take their place at the table as well. Another
11:19
Speaker 1: key thing I want to get in is kind of
11:20
Speaker 1: the playbook that Trump is trying to keep up with here,
11:24
Speaker 1: and Kevin McCarthy kind of explains it in this clip.
11:27
Speaker 1: Take a look.
11:28
Speaker 6: Oh look, Republicans got elected for three main reasons. Biden
11:33
Speaker 6: was terrible in inflation, but the border and the economy.
11:36
Speaker 6: He's done fantastic on the border. But my point is
11:40
Speaker 6: he's not celebrating that he made it look too easy.
11:42
Speaker 2: Almost.
11:42
Speaker 6: You need to explain that to the American public. We're
11:45
Speaker 6: not talking. When President Trump talks tariffs and he uses
11:49
Speaker 6: twenty five percent, to me, that means I want to negotiate.
11:54
Speaker 6: This is reciprocal.
11:55
Speaker 3: It's going to be a long he said. They said
11:58
Speaker 3: they're gonna be permanent some tariffs.
12:00
Speaker 6: Yeah, but everything he does is a new negotiation. Everything
12:03
Speaker 6: the president's saying is he's trying to set the table.
12:06
Speaker 6: So all we're saying is I'm just going to do
12:08
Speaker 6: what you're doing to me. And once I announced that
12:10
Speaker 6: to the rest of the country, it sees you've pretty
12:12
Speaker 6: been pretty unfair to America, Right, So how do I
12:16
Speaker 6: change that? Be fair to me, I'll be fair to
12:18
Speaker 6: you any foreign leader when they talk to me. The
12:20
Speaker 6: number one thing President Trump wants is respect, and if
12:24
Speaker 6: you respect him, he'll respect you.
12:27
Speaker 1: Well, I get, I mean, yeah, sure, everybody wants respect.
12:31
Speaker 1: But I think also you have to look at the
12:32
Speaker 1: current situation right now. If you consider all the countries
12:36
Speaker 1: that are going to be coming to the negotiation table
12:39
Speaker 1: in some way, some may just say that we're not
12:41
Speaker 1: I can't imagine that would be the case, just because
12:43
Speaker 1: of the size of this market. But if you look
12:45
Speaker 1: at Israel, they eliminate all tariffs on US goods. Now, granted,
12:49
Speaker 1: Israel small small country, you know, from a GDP standpoint,
12:54
Speaker 1: but definitely a key ally of the United States. Now,
12:57
Speaker 1: does that mean we get other Western nations possible saying okay,
13:01
Speaker 1: let's just do a quid pro co. We'll charge no
13:04
Speaker 1: tariffs on your stuff, you charge no tariffs on our stuff.
13:07
Speaker 1: Everybody wins open free trade. That could possibly be the
13:11
Speaker 1: case in some of Central Europe. I think that's going
13:13
Speaker 1: to be a big factor because that is one of
13:15
Speaker 1: the larger hot zones for tariffs. Obviously, China will be
13:19
Speaker 1: the biggest one, I think overall, Australia to a certain extent,
13:22
Speaker 1: because of their goods in terms of products around wine, beef,
13:27
Speaker 1: a lot of commodities that come into the United States.
13:30
Speaker 1: So those are the ones I'm watching for. But if
13:32
Speaker 1: we start to see more react like Israel did, then
13:36
Speaker 1: maybe there is a possibility that Trump could be winning
13:39
Speaker 1: a negotiation. We'll see. It's yet to be proven, and
13:43
Speaker 1: the problem is is the uncertainty could cause a lot
13:46
Speaker 1: more problems in the market overall. Let's go look in
13:48
Speaker 1: crypto projects in general, because everybody's asking me, Paul or
13:52
Speaker 1: what crypto projects would you go into right now? I'm
13:55
Speaker 1: gonna just be honest with you guys. The scenario that's
13:58
Speaker 1: playing out right now within crypto. First of all, most
14:01
Speaker 1: of these projects are really struggling. And when I say struggling,
14:05
Speaker 1: first of all, the meme coin craze has almost gone away.
14:09
Speaker 1: We've seen a lot of companies even within the gaming
14:12
Speaker 1: and the AI sector that's started back off obviously because
14:15
Speaker 1: of the macro environment. And that's the takeaway I want
14:17
Speaker 1: to give you is that the macro environment is the
14:20
Speaker 1: most important thing right now to be watching. It is
14:24
Speaker 1: the guiding light of how these digital assets will move.
14:28
Speaker 1: I believe you're going to have maybe the top twenty
14:30
Speaker 1: to top fifty pretty much be the core of what
14:33
Speaker 1: we're going to see coming out of innovation. So watch
14:35
Speaker 1: those as close as you can. Most of them we
14:37
Speaker 1: talk about in this channel quite a bit, but I
14:39
Speaker 1: think a lot of the other projects are going to
14:42
Speaker 1: take time to recover as the market starts to see
14:46
Speaker 1: an adjustment. Just as a reminder, because I want you
14:49
Speaker 1: guys to remember, it is still a very bullish market.
14:52
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is up twenty four percent since election day, after
14:57
Speaker 1: all of what we've gone through, after everything that has
15:01
Speaker 1: been done on the macro side of things. The challenge
15:04
Speaker 1: is the tariffs, the issue with Russia and Ukraine. Twenty
15:08
Speaker 1: four percent up, which is still almost double that of gold.
15:12
Speaker 1: So maybe gold has gotten some more room to mount
15:14
Speaker 1: and maybe bitcoin is just getting started. Let me know
15:17
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