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Top Shelf Talent: Navigating FPL’s Premium Assets · Top Bins With Twins - An FPL Podcast

0:00
Welcome back to Toppins with Twins and this episode we're going to discuss premium assets,
0:21
buy holds or sells and just have some fun. Hey Luke, do you hear that? What is it? It's
0:37
Vinny Venetius Jr. rolling by our house. He's still rolling from Madrid. Welcome back to
0:43
Toppins with Twins everybody. Hello everyone. If you all didn't know there were a Champions
0:48
League games today so had a little inspiration for the opening of the podcast. But we're
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here to talk about FPL so Luke, why don't you just, why don't let's just go into it.
0:59
This could be long-winded everybody but Luke's going to tell us about his FPL performance
1:03
team last week. Game week 10, I ended up on a total of 44 points. I, the average was 39
1:13
so I did have a slight green arrow which is the first slight green arrow and what feels
1:19
like years. It's been 84 years. But I mishandled my team this week. Big time. Join the club.
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I decided that the proper move for my team was to take Slanke out of the team, bring
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in Kunja. Kunja gets an assist but as we all know Slanke goes for the brace with an
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assist so he ends up on a 16 pointer and I did, going into the week I knew I wanted
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Kunja but sacrificing Slanke or something I did not want to do. Ultimately I just made
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the decision to do so. Should have sacrificed Holland. Should have, should have Kodawoda.
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That's the story of my season for this week. And then another frustrating point in my team
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as well is that I d Flecken locked in for a 12 pointer going into the 92nd minute and
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Fulham said we have different plans and Harry Wilson put in some two incredible goals. Can
2:23
t take anything away from what a performance coming off the bench. But Flecken went from
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a total of 12 points all the way down to four. But the most incredible part of this is after
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the first goal he was still on three bonus and another point for not conceding the second
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goal. So he lost four points on the second goal which is just maddening. Ultimately the
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best player in my team this week, Leaf Davis, he gets the goal, loses the clean sheet in
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the 90s, fifth, sixth minute, you know at this point what is time, what does it mean?
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And flat line. And I also managed to bench Morgan Rogers nine points. So slight green
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arrow but a horrible game week as far as I'm concerned. And I did captain Holland for his
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blank. So that's about how my week went. Paul, how was your week? Hopefully it was better
3:22
than mine. I think it was a disappointing week for me too. In a week where the average
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was 39, I had 43 points. And I basically had two returns in my team. So I had Salah who
3:38
is my captain where you got the goal and then bonus points. And then I also had Jedi who
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got an assist and not a clean sheet. So he was on six. And the big kicker for me is I
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was kind of flashing back to last year and I had Salah on my bench with 16 points which
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I would love to hear people in the comments or just on Twitter any discourse you would
4:00
have with us that do you think it's worse to have Salah on your bench or to transfer
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him out because me and liquor both feeling pain with Salah and I think maybe equivalent.
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I don't know which one's worse though, you know, the good thing for you is that you still
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have them in your team for next week. Yeah, it's which at home is good. That's that's
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the shining light amongst all that I think. But we do hope that you do not continue this
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trend because last season, binting points was your MO throughout the course of everything
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we were doing in FPL for that season. And we don't want that to continue because that
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that's just painful as an FPL manager. Yeah, I was what like top 100 K last year. If I
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would have finished easily top 100 K if I would have if those points on my bench would
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have been on my team. So we won't spend too much time on that. But I think overall really
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low scoring week, it's interesting there's been a lot of low scoring weeks lately. It's
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just I guess the layout of FPL right now and kind of I guess where the goals and assist
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and like the clean sheets are hard to find. So it's I think we're just kind of struggling
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right now as FPL managers to find consistent results. But I mean, there are consistent
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results, but a lot of it is just kind of the mid tier level. Yeah, I agree. There's we're
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going to go into the premium assets a little bit more in greater detail here in a little
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bit. But I really do find that this season there's not a set template. And I think there's
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multiple reasons right because there's lots of premium options. So people diversify their
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teams in that way. But we don't have midfield options outside of say Morgan Rogers who
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are cheap who are returning weekend and week out, right? There's a there's a huge discrepancy
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there and I think last season we had that across the board. Right? There were so many
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great options from even 6 million all the way up to 7.58 where you could put in four
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or five of those 8 million and they'd be just as good as the premiums are this season. And
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we just don't have that option right now. So it's the every week is so different across
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the board. I don't know if you've noticed the same thing as well, Paul. Yeah, I agree
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with you. I think it's I think there's a lot of fluctuation with how players performing.
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I mean, there's there's a couple assets like Chris would he's consistently performing.
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I'd say Salah is kind of ticking away a little bit. But I mean, I think there's just been
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a lot of migrations in the beginning of the season to Holland and kind of like the hat
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tricks and then that's dried up and the captain's choices are kind of like, I guess, scrambled
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now because the last couple years has just been perma Holland as a captain's choice.
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So I think people are having to adapt and I personally like that too, because I think
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it's more fun playing FPL where there's more variance. But then the day I mean, I think
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having players that consistently tick away at points is the best way to have most consistencies.
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And I think and Bomo is a good option to there. Like he's really he's done well. I mean, he's
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struggled the last couple weeks, I think. But he just feels like somebody that's always
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going to return. I don't know. It's it's tough, though, because I mean, if you look at like
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I know earlier, you mentioned you want to talk about Spurs attack a little bit, which
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we can kind of dive in that when we talk about our premiums more. But I think some of these
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teams you're seeing that they're getting goals from different places in different matches.
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So that's it's kind of hard to predict, you know, it is really hard to predict. And everyone
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out there who is getting ready for Game Week 12, we're going to have a good good note here
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to mention that we do have an international break between Game Week 11 and Game Week
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12. And so I'm so tired of all these international
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breaches. Fortunately, this is this is the last one
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before we go into the real holiday season, which is such a fun time and FPL and just
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football in general, you know, people are out of work out of school, there's more free
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time and spending time with family, more time to watch football. And that that makes it
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so enjoyable around this time of the year. And the games are coming thick and fast. So
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you got to be on your toes, you got to be ready to get your team in a place to where
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you have squad depth in case there are injuries that pop up. But you also have to be ready
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to dive into a midweek fixture when typically we've had Europe or we've had the Carabao
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Cup or EFL Cup being played midweek. So definitely an exciting time and we're going to go into
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that next week in our podcast, where we get you ready for that really enjoyable run of
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fixtures, but also challenging because there's a lot going on at that time.
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Yeah, it's that's kind of the time where you really make or break your season. In my opinion,
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an FPL is through the fixture run. If you've had a bad 10 game weeks, you can easily make
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that up in these run of fixtures because people get distracted, people don't pay attention
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to their teams or honestly with with the congested fixtures. I mean, there's already
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congested fixtures anyways, but if more injuries happen, it's kind of just like being able
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to adapt and problem solve and especially plan is the biggest thing, you know, through
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the fixture.
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Another thing about that too, that I think we should note when we're talking about this,
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and we'll talk about more next week, the consistency of playing in the same league actually does
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go decently far in my opinion, because players, the level is established. They know that they're
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not traveling to, let's say France to play in Europa League midweek or going to Greece
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or going to Croatia, right? All of that traveling does take a toll on players and being able
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to have shorter duration trips, sleep in their own beds. I think it goes a long way.
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Be around your family.
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Yeah. And but another thing we do have to consider with that on the reverse side of
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the coin is that a lot of teams who don't have midweek fixtures do have that now. And
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someone like Ipswich, for example, if they pick up multiple injuries before that quick
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stretch of games, they don't have the squad depth to cover that.
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Yeah. That's a great point, Luke, because if you bring up to a lute and fan when their
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season turned last year, it's probably the tail end of like the Christmas season whenever
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they just got the injury, injury, injury, injury. And like, it's one thing for me to
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complain about Arsenal's injuries, but I mean, with the resources, the squads up they have,
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it's manageable at times, you know? But like if you're Ipswich, what are you going to do?
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Yeah, I completely agree. You just don't have options, you know?
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And here's the thing. Luton are in the championship right now. They're in the relegation zone.
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Yeah.
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That is, that just shows how quickly things change in football. And this festive, these
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festive fixtures show that through and through that you, as an FPL manager, you have to be
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able to react quickly because things do change so fast. Let's look at City, for example,
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the last three fixtures they've lost, which I could not tell you the last time that's
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happened. Yeah, Paul, calm down over there. Does Paul dislike more Vinicius or Man City?
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Who knows?
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Man City.
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After that, I'm sure, yeah, that's very true.
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Man City, no doubt. That was just on the moment, Luke, you know?
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Yes.
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I'm a culture reference for everybody, but no, I hate Man City more, but go ahead.
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Yeah. My point here though is that we need to be ready to adapt very quickly to how teams
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are setting up, to how they're approaching lower tier sides. There's a lot of variance
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here amongst Premier League teams and keeping an eye on that to make sure that we are prepared
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as FPL managers is going to be the reason if you make it or break it going into the
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festive fixture.
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Yeah. No, I kind of agree more, Luke. And I think a good way to do that is to have like
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maybe like three or four players that you want to build a team around, you know, and
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then just start from there. So I think a good way to figure that out is just by deciding
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which premiums you think are viable and necessary to a team going forward. So I think we should
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go ahead and give people some input on that, Luke.
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Let's do that.
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Where would you like to start?
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I think we work our way from the top down. So we'll go by cost. So the very first one,
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obviously, is going to be Erling Holland. Holland is currently sitting at 15.3 million
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in the game, selected by about 69% of the game. No pun intended there. And he's sitting
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on a total of 77 points for the value that you're getting for his price. 77 points at
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this point in the season is not exactly what you'd be hoping for with how much you're paying
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for Holland. No, with that little intro, I'm going to hand it over to you, Paul, and then
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I'll come back to my final thoughts. What do you think about Holland? Is he a buy, keep,
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or sell?
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Well, if I had the ability to, if he was in my team, I would sell him ASAP. I don't have
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him in my team, so I can't, but I would highly recommend people to get rid of Holland because
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I think that it enables you to play the game in a different way. Like when you have that
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much lock, money, I can't talk, you have that much money locked up in one asset. It just
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really limits the things you can do. And there's so many other great premiums that if you even,
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like if you drop a little bit, I think you're giving yourself a lot more flexibility in teams.
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And I mean, if we look at cities next round of fixtures, they play Brighton away. They
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play Tottenham, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest. And then going into 15, they play Crystal
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Palace, United, Villa. So I mean, if you look at those fixtures up to 17, they do not. This
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is probably their most difficult, this is easily their most difficult stretch run of
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fixtures.
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Um, I don't, okay, I don't know if it's their most difficult at this up to this point in
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the season. Definitely their most difficult because if you look in 23, game week 23, they
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have Chelsea, then it goes Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Spurs. That's a really difficult
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stretch run of five feet.
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Five fixtures there, but then it clears up beautifully, right? After that in 28, they're
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the rest of their 10 remaining fixtures are against probably low, I'd say like below the
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top six currently in the table.
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But to me, I think for the next probably four to five game weeks, I mean, we're always running
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the risk when we don't own Holland of him just going stupid and having like a hat trick
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and the next week having a hat trick. But I just don't think the city team with the
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way they're currently playing right now with their lack of creativity with it's just so
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evident how much they miss Roger E. Like they just can't break teams down whenever they're
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whenever they have those like really low blocks, like they're just struggling so much to do
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that, which I think Pep will figure it out. I mean, he's the best manager in the world
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for a reason. He has assets at this team to really like make that an easier process. He
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just has to figure out how he wants to do it.
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But to me, Holland just isn't creating chances. And even when he has chances, he's not finishing
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them right now. Yeah, my okay, I think that is an excellent side to be on right and you
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presented your points very well that city have a very tough run of fixtures coming up
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city aren't they're struggling to break down a low block. I if I knew that Kevin de Bruyne
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wasn't going to be back sometime soon, I for sure would sell Holland. He's currently in
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my team. So my answer for Holland as far as buy, keep or sell, I'm going to say keep as
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of now, because with Kevin de Bruyne coming back.
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But how do we know when De Bruyne is going to be back? And do you think De Bruyne will
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even be able to play that big of a role in their attack? Because I mean, when I feel
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like when he comes back, I mean, he's probably going to be used like to a lower amount, you
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know, his X minutes are down. Yes. But I do think that Holland with KDB is different than
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anyone else in city side. They have an understanding amongst each other and Kevin de Bruyne sees
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passes that no one else does. I agree with that.
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But is Holland in good form right now? No, he's not. He is in a place where he's getting
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pretty good chances and just today alone against supporting. He has a penalty with a chance
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to make it two to three with about 30 minutes left. And he just sends it off the crossbar.
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Right. He's just someone who's not in form right now. I don't think his confidence is
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quite shaken, but it's taken a hit. It's, you can tell when he's out on the pitch. So
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I will leave it up to the individual managers at the moment. He's a hold for me. That could
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change because there are plenty of other great options out there. And let's just say, Earling
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Holland is not Chris Wood. So I hated every piece of that sentence just now. So I do want
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that to be known that every week when I see Chris Wood score a goal, part of me dies.
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I've vomited my mouth a little bit. I'm not going to lie. Every time it kills me every
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time, but it's horrible. Good for Chris Wood. It's incredible that he's in such great form,
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but it is frustrating to say the least. So, um, all right. So Paul, you said Holland is
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a sell. I have Holland as a keep with the caveat and Katie bees back may be a buy in my opinion.
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What I want us to go to next is to go to Liverpool. We're going to talk about Mohammed
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Salah. Salah is currently the highest score in the game with a total of 93 total 93, a
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total of 93. He has 93 total points up to this point in the season. He's averaging 9.3
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points per match, which is incredible. And he's sitting at 12.8 million pounds at the
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moment. Do you think Salah is a buy sell or hold? I think if you don't have him, you
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should buy him right away. Okay. I'm just, I'm just so high on Salah this year. And it's
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like, I think he just always turns up in those moments. Like for, for what he, the way the
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position he plays in that right wing, he is such a poacher's mentality that he always
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seems to find the right position. State goals because I mean, he can be checked out of games.
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I mean, in the, in the Arsenal match, he was basically checked out of that match. Like he
19:15
really was not, he did not like, if you watch that whole match, you're not like, Oh, Salah
19:19
had his fingerprints all over this match. Like it's a vintage, whatever, but because
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he just, he just drifts through matches a little bit, which I totally understand. But
19:27
as an FPL manager, I mean, like, how do you not want somebody that's already on 93 points,
19:34
10 games in the season in your team, you know, and his price point at 12.8, it's not that
19:39
crazy compared to other midfielders. So it's like, there's not a huge golf like it's not
19:43
like Holland where like, if you have Salah in there, you don't have flexibility to build
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other teams too. And I mean, we look at their run of fixtures, it's going to be a little
19:51
more difficult because they play Villa at home. They play Southampton away. We will
19:55
be there for that. That's, that's probably a captain C shot right there, especially Southampton
20:00
playing at home. I think maybe more dangerous for Southampton than playing away.
20:05
You think they're going to be more courageous playing at home?
20:07
I would think so, which could really open it up for Salah. And we know what Southampton
20:11
are going to be like this year with kind of playing their own brand of football, which
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is, I respect that. But like as an FPL manager with an attacking asset playing them, I kind
20:19
of like that too, you know, and then they play city at home. I think Salah could go
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kind of crazy in that match. I don't know. Just, just, just to kind of a thought there
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and they played new castle way, which I think is going to be a tough fixture for them. I
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think that's probably the toughest one they'll have.
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St. James is always a tough place to play. Yeah. I mean, look at Arsenal last weekend,
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they, they struggled. They couldn't, they couldn't create anything against new castles.
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That's what it felt like. I think this new castle match and sorry, just a brief tangent.
20:52
This was the one that really felt like they, there was the realization that Oh, Oh, to
20:59
guard is not here. Yeah. No, for sure. They just didn't have the
21:03
bill. I'm not, I'm not going to sidetrack stuff, but we can talk about it later. Yeah,
21:05
we want, but, um, yeah, to me, it just feels like he is probably the asset to own an FPL
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right now. Bottom underline, bold, highlight. So he's a buy in your opinion. Yeah. Whatever,
21:22
send, send it all. Yeah. Under, understood there. I would have to say, I think I'm in
21:29
a similar position because one, I am thoroughly impressed with how slot has managed to come
21:38
into Liverpool and make some slight tweaks here to start out with, but he has Liverpool
21:45
playing the brand of football that he likes to play. They're not as open. What's the
21:52
best way to say it? Open is one way to say it, but they don't press as high up the pitch.
21:57
They're much more practical on how they approach the match. And I think that while Salah isn't
22:03
getting those positions in the final third that he was with Klopp in the early days,
22:09
when they were just press teams like crazy and they would turn them over, he's still
22:13
getting plenty of great chances. And we know one thing about Salah, usually he's going
22:20
to be clinical. And that's why he can fade in and out of matches as you were talking
22:24
about Paul, because he doesn't have to be locked in 90%, 100% of the time to still return.
22:31
I mean, he can be all right for some of the match and then he returns in the 75th minute
22:36
because he gets one chance with an XG of 0.2. That's just who he is. So there's a reason
22:43
why people call him the king of FPL. That's just, it is who he is. So in my opinion, I
22:51
think he's a buy as well. And the second reason why I think that's true. So yes, he's in really
22:56
good form and I really like what Salah's built, but I do like their fixtures. I know they
23:01
have City and Newcastle away, they have Spurs away, but I think Liverpool are getting to
23:08
the point now of where they're a little fixture proof because they've shown it week in week
23:13
out out of their last 12 fixtures across all competitions. They have won 11 of those 12
23:20
fixtures. And on top of that, they only drew the one, no, they lost one and that was denoting
23:28
enforced, which how crazy is that? And then they did your all against Arsenal, but they've
23:35
been incredible in the Premier League so far and equally as good in the Champions League
23:39
against some pretty high caliber teams. So I mean, if you look at their run of fixtures
23:46
going forward, I think we're going to see a lot over the next five, which we said that
23:50
earlier and they've done so well so far with this hard tough run of fixtures where they're
23:53
going to play Villa, Southampton, and then they play Real Madrid, Man City and Newcastle
24:00
away. So I think those three fixtures on the tail end of that run are really going to tell
24:06
us a lot. And I have my own thoughts about Liverpool that I think they've been relatively
24:10
pretty lucky so far this year with injuries and kind of like, I don't think they've had
24:15
the problems that City and Arsenal have had. But I mean, if they can keep up their luck
24:19
right now, it seems like it could actually really be a three team title race and Sala
24:24
is obviously going to be a large part of that.
24:26
Yes, he will be. He will be. He's there. He's their talisman at the end of the day. And
24:33
as we talked about, he fades in and out of matches sometimes, but overall they can rely
24:38
on him.
24:39
So did Messi too. And I do think Jota will be back after the international break from
24:44
everything I've seen coming out of Liverpool's camp. Having him back is going to be really
24:48
good for them because while Darwin has been better and shown up decently well in his performances
24:54
while Jota has been out, Jota is so important how they play with the way that he presses
25:02
and the pressure he puts on opposing teams, not to mention his intelligent runs in the
25:07
box. And historically he's been a clinical finisher this year. He hasn't looked quite
25:13
at that level, but I'm all on board for Liverpool and I think Sala is a buy.
25:20
Yeah, we are in the grants of that. Where would you like to go next?
25:25
Well, we're going to go to the north where it's ice, ice cold, too cold Palmer.
25:31
It's a rat boy fall, you know, it's a rat boy winner.
25:34
We're getting closer to winter, I guess. He he's just he's going through all the seasons
25:39
at this point.
25:40
Yeah.
25:41
So you go ahead and give us your thoughts on cold Palmer.
25:44
Cold Palmer is currently price that 11 million pounds started out the season at 10.5. So
25:50
he's risen point of 5 million pounds averaging 8.2 matches, 8.2 points per match, excuse
25:58
me there with a total of 82 points and an ownership of 56%. That 50% 56% ownership kills
26:08
me every single week. Every week there's there's easily something you could do about it.
26:15
I know, I know. And that's we can touch on this later, but we'll talk about it next week
26:21
during the podcast, but my wildcard will be played very soon and the team might be a little
26:27
icy. That's all I'm going to say.
26:29
It's going to be a little chilly. It's going to be a little chilly.
26:33
Here's the thing, Cole Palmer, his underlying numbers are really good. They're not pop off
26:43
the board crazy, especially if you remove the fixture against Brighton where he just
26:49
went absolutely bonkers, crazy wild, scored 25 points in one game week. If you take out
26:57
that XGI of essentially what was three, his numbers aren't incredible.
27:05
I mean, you're also forgetting to mention the game where you had what three assists
27:09
versus Wolves two.
27:11
Yeah, but the X, XA his XA in that match was 0.15 with three assist point one five. That
27:20
is insane. He out of his three assists, each one average an XA of point zero five.
27:27
Yeah, that's insane.
27:29
I mean, I mean, Luke, but if you think about it too, I mean, if you just watch him play,
27:33
like there's always the numbers, all that stuff. But I mean, think about the, what match
27:38
was it? The one two weekends ago where he plays the ball to Netto where he has basically
27:42
the hockey assists.
27:43
Yes.
27:44
I mean, he just, he's kind of like, I think don't, don't strike me down, but he's probably
27:51
the closest thing we've seen to KDB and the Premier League to prime KDB.
27:58
Here's the insert regards like his ball playing ability, I think is up there.
28:02
What you just said was the point that I was working my way to.
28:06
I'm sorry.
28:07
In fact, the, yes, maybe the underlying numbers are not as great as we'd wish they would be,
28:17
but he, it feels like he is going to return every single week.
28:23
It doesn't matter who they're playing. If we think about Liverpool, for example, it
28:28
felt like he should have returned in that match.
28:29
If someone was going to return for Chelsea, it felt like it should have been Cole Palmer.
28:35
Although he did not and he ended up with two points. He still was in good positions and
28:39
it's all about positions. He is in those positions that he's a threat for getting assist, but
28:47
also for scoring goals and we know he's on pins too.
28:50
So Cole Palmer, the out of the premiums we've done so far, he is the most emphatic buy that
28:59
I have up to this point.
29:01
Yeah. For me, it's almost impossible to distinguish between Salah and Palmer because to me, Palmer
29:08
is the highest upside player in the game right now, just because Holland's probably not in
29:14
great form at the moment, but Salah is more consistent.
29:18
So they're kind of like on both sides, different sides of the spectrum.
29:22
But honestly, I think Palmer is such a good person to have in your team because we've
29:26
seen, I mean, he has the weeks where you can go for 17 points, 25 points.
29:30
And if you have him in your team and think about what ownership rate did you say he's
29:33
at?
29:34
He's currently at 55.8%.
29:35
So he's at 55.8%. If you have, if you think about last week, like the week where the average
29:41
was what, 32, 34, right?
29:43
I think so.
29:44
I think it was 34. But I mean, if he has one of those performances, you're basically already
29:51
almost there at the average.
29:52
Yes. I mean, that's with 55% of other managers, but think about the other percentage that
29:57
don't, the minority that don't own him. You already have that leg up.
30:01
I think he just gives you so many good options going forward that he, to me, it's just really,
30:07
I think it'd be really hard to not play the rest of the field without him in your team.
30:11
With Palmer, I think we're going to get to the point probably, you know, game 15 onwards,
30:17
maybe a little bit later than that, where he, his ownership is going to be so high,
30:23
you're going to have to have another Chelsea asset in order to really get a leg up.
30:28
Similar to what we saw last year with Arsenal's defense, the people who went really early had,
30:32
let's say, Sleba, for example, you had to get that second Arsenal defender to really
30:37
have it make a difference in your team because the ownership was so high.
30:41
I think it's a great point, Luke.
30:42
I think we could see that with Palmer because the fixtures, we need to talk about their fixtures.
30:48
Coming up, Chelsea do have Arsenal at home in game week 11, but after that, that's a
30:56
big L for Chelsea.
31:00
Following that though, following the big L against Arsenal, they have an incredible run
31:06
of fixtures going from game week 12 all the way to game week 22, which gets us to the
31:12
20th of January.
31:15
That is a stretch run of two months where they have an incredible run of fixtures.
31:23
We know Cole Palmer is going to be at the heart of pretty much everything that's happening.
31:28
If you don't have Cole Palmer in your team from game week 12 onwards, you got to figure
31:34
out a way to get him in, in my opinion, because you're going to be terrified anytime Chelsea
31:40
is playing that he is going to return.
31:44
I'm telling you now, he's going to return in these fixtures coming up because they are
31:50
so, so nice.
31:52
They're just great fixtures to own Chelsea asset for.
31:56
Keep that in the back of your mind.
31:58
I agree with you.
31:59
I think this could be a little bit of a hot take.
32:04
I don't really want to say it, but it's a thought that is in my mind that with that
32:08
run of fixtures, if Chelsea are currently sitting fourth in the table at 18 points and you have
32:15
Liverpool, I mean, basically they're tied with Arsenal right now.
32:20
If they go, if they win six of those seven and we know Man City are faltering a little
32:26
bit, there's a situation where after the festive fixtures, they could be top, top two in the
32:31
table.
32:33
Maybe top three.
32:34
Let's even say they managed to pull out three points against Arsenal in Game Week 11.
32:41
That's a tough loss for Arsenal there, I think, because we never know how the table is going
32:47
to shake out.
32:48
By the time we come near the final, you know, Game Week 36, 37, we have no idea what teams
32:53
are going to be like then.
32:55
But if you're giving up those three points to Chelsea now at this point, if you're Arsenal,
33:01
you might be a little concerned about that.
33:03
That might be a little hyperbolic, but it's just something to keep in the back of your
33:06
mind.
33:07
Yeah, it's, um, let's not think about that reality, but I just a second, Luke's thoughts.
33:14
I think Cole Palmer is probably one of the easiest buys in this game.
33:18
I think he really is.
33:19
Yeah, based on all the points we've got over.
33:21
Okay, so Cole Palmer and very easy buy for both Paul and I, we're going to move on to
33:29
Bukhaya Saka Saka Saka is currently at 10.1 million pounds.
33:37
He is averaging 7.2 points per match and sitting on an ownership of 25.4%.
33:46
That ownership has really significantly dipped over the past three to four weeks.
33:52
He did return against Liverpool, very nice, tidy finish in the top corner, but out of
33:59
his last three fixtures, he's blank two out of those three with Liverpool being the only
34:03
return.
34:04
So my question to you, Paul, do you buy, sell or hold Saka?
34:12
So I'm just going to give you a little bit of basically, I think that if you have Saka
34:19
right now, keep him in your team, if you don't have him, I would wait till it after the Chelsea
34:25
match and probably after nottingham force for West Ham going into 13 and then buy him
34:32
because the run fixtures get really good.
34:34
Odegard's going to be back.
34:36
Saka's, I think ceiling goes up so much higher when Odegard's healthy and they have a functional
34:41
creative like, honestly, the system that Arteta had to turn to with like Trissard and like
34:47
Habritz is almost like false nines, both is two false nines.
34:52
Sometimes it's hard under him.
34:53
Just really depends on how they were setting up for the match.
34:55
I think that doesn't enable Saka to really do what he wants to do, you know, right?
35:01
And with Odegard back, it's just going to be so much easier for him to find those little
35:05
half spaces and Odegard and Saka have a great relationship.
35:08
I think it just makes Saka's life so much easier and the goals are going to be so much
35:11
easier to find for him.
35:13
Completely agreed.
35:14
Odegard is the type of player that he passes players open because he sees the spaces before
35:22
the players making the runs, even see it themselves.
35:25
Yeah.
35:26
I'm not saying he necessarily does that for Saka.
35:28
I'm sure he has at times and I can recall sometimes.
35:32
So yes, he does.
35:34
But Saka is someone he needs people to interplay with.
35:40
And not having Odegard tucked into that middle right channel where he can interplay with
35:45
Saka and been wide as well, who can overlap or invert, not having that relationship has
35:51
really damaged Saka, but Arsenal as a whole.
35:56
And like I was saying previously in the pod against Newcastle, that became very readily
36:03
apparent.
36:04
And watching, you could see another matches, but it felt like Arsenal was kind of running
36:09
out of gas at this point because they didn't have answers.
36:14
And Newcastle set up tactically in a way that frustrated and made them just circle around
36:21
that you right without getting any actual possession in the middle of pitch to be able
36:25
to break them down.
36:27
That's what every team is going to do if Arsenal does not have Odegard.
36:31
And the fact that Odegard is coming back and hopefully stays fit, that makes Saka's potential
36:37
exponentially higher with having Odegard on the pitch.
36:42
And seeing him at 25% ownership, that excites me if I know Odegard's going to be back.
36:48
And we know Odegard's not going on international duty, which is great.
36:53
There may be a God.
36:56
I sent the tweet to Paul about Odegard not going on to Norway for international break.
37:03
And he, I think he was probably like at that point 20, 30 miles away from me.
37:07
I think I could hear him yell because he was so excited.
37:10
Yeah.
37:11
Odegard being back just changes things for Arsenal.
37:13
It does.
37:14
It does.
37:15
Yeah.
37:16
So all this being said, in regards to Saka, having Odegard back is the most important
37:21
thing in my opinion.
37:24
With Odegard back, Arsenal are fixture proof.
37:29
I think they can return against anyone.
37:30
The defenders are better.
37:32
Specifically, I think Havertz and Saka can return against anyone if they have Odegard.
37:39
So with that being said, I think Saka is a must buy because he's at 25% ownership right
37:47
now that I would imagine it'll go up, right?
37:52
Because the news of Odegard's going to have a lot of people thinking this way.
37:55
He'll probably going into game 12, he'll probably be around 35, maybe 30% ownership.
38:01
Yeah.
38:03
And I'm telling you, you're going to want to have him in your team.
38:05
I know Forrest have been good, but Arsenal are going to be out for blood come game week
38:09
12.
38:10
Yeah.
38:11
When Odegard gets back, I mean, I think the energy is probably going to shift a little
38:15
bit already.
38:16
But whenever Odegard's back in that team, it's going to be fun again.
38:22
Not that it's always fun, I guess.
38:24
No, the interesting thing too is by game week 13, Arsenal will be playing West Ham away.
38:30
I'd imagine that, you know, West Ham probably have a new manager at that point.
38:35
Maybe Graham Potter, bringing a little Garis Southgate, you know, something a little spicy
38:40
to get the fans excited again.
38:43
West Ham have been here.
38:45
But what I'm trying to say there is...
38:47
What about Greg Burrhalter?
38:48
Oh my God.
38:51
Don't get me started.
38:52
Cross it out.
38:54
But real quickly, I just want to highlight Arsenal's fixtures after Nottingham Force,
38:58
they play West Ham away, United at home, Fulham away, Everton at home, Crystal Palace
39:04
away, Ipswich at home, Brentford away.
39:07
Those fixtures from 13 and 19, I think that's prime territory.
39:12
So let's look at those fixtures real fast.
39:14
I have a question for you.
39:15
So game week 13, they start with West Ham and then going down to Ipswich in game week
39:20
18.
39:21
That is six fixtures right there.
39:23
Out of those six fixtures, how many do you think Arsenal will clean sheet?
39:28
We'll get a clean sheet.
39:29
Yes.
39:30
West Ham should be a clean sheet, United.
39:33
I think there's a lot of question marks about what they're going to be going forward.
39:38
That one's speculative.
39:39
I'm going to say yes, though.
39:42
It's United at home.
39:43
So two for two at that point.
39:45
Yes.
39:46
Fulham away, don't think they'll keep a clean sheet.
39:48
I really don't.
39:49
Everton at home should keep a clean sheet.
39:51
We'll say yes.
39:52
Crystal Palace away, keep a clean sheet.
39:53
Ipswich at home, keep a clean sheet.
39:55
Okay.
39:56
So you see five out of six.
39:57
Five out of six.
39:58
Interesting.
39:59
Okay.
40:00
Would you agree?
40:01
Would you go?
40:02
I bet you'd probably go more like four or three, right?
40:03
Yeah, I'd be more in the four ballpark.
40:04
I think United would probably score a goal.
40:07
Well, so I think the reason why I say that is if Odeguard comes back, he's fully healthy
40:11
and everything, it's going to make the defense, it's going to make their lives so much easier.
40:15
Because a lot of these situations where like, I don't know, there's a lot of spec, a lot
40:20
of things behind this, but like, I think a lot of the positions that defenders have been
40:24
put in by Arsenal and like the Red Card situations or some of those different situations, that's
40:28
the one with Saliba, like you just don't have the match control.
40:31
So like you put people in positions where they make bad decisions, like playing the
40:34
ball back over your center back's heads and then they have to make a horrible decision,
40:37
you know?
40:38
Here's what, as you're saying that, and I am in complete agreeance with what you're
40:44
saying, I'm thinking back to my environmental scientist day.
40:48
And Martin Odeguard is the key stone species of Arsenal.
40:54
He's the one that provides the structure for their entire ecosystem.
40:59
Think about gray wolves when they disappeared from Yellowstone.
41:02
I won't go into it.
41:04
But you know, inherently, we're basically saying the same thing that Odeguard is one
41:09
of the most important pieces of the machinery that makes up Arsenal.
41:15
He's what makes them tick.
41:16
He's what gives them the heart and the push, the drive.
41:21
Without him, they haven't had that soul.
41:23
They haven't had their heart in their attack.
41:26
And also, as you're saying, defensively too, that feeds back onto the defense.
41:31
Odeguard back changes things.
41:33
And I think Arsenal are going to really, really start beating teams the way that people are
41:39
talking to.
41:40
I think we're going to see through the festive run of fixtures.
41:43
Like we said, we'll talk about that next week when we do a podcast.
41:47
But it's going to be it's as an Arsenal fan.
41:49
It's kind of scary.
41:50
It's kind of exciting that we're going to see after the effective after the end of the
41:55
fact, I cannot talk.
41:56
What is wrong?
41:57
Spitted out.
41:58
I talk all day.
41:59
I just there's certain things.
42:01
But after the festive fixtures, we're going to see, I think how the title race is going
42:09
to play out for the rest of the season.
42:11
We're going to learn a lot about these different teams and obviously Arsenal are getting Odeguard
42:16
back, but then City not getting Roger out, not getting him back.
42:20
Are they going to figure it out is the question.
42:23
And is Liverpool legit?
42:24
It seems like they are.
42:26
But like we said, like we talked about earlier, they have probably four more very, very difficult
42:31
fixtures in their near future where we're going to kind of learn more about them too.
42:34
So we'll see.
42:36
I agree with that.
42:39
I think it's time for us to move on from premiums for a little bit.
42:44
What I want to talk about right now is trusting your gut as an FPL manager.
42:51
I have been really bad about this this season where sometimes I trust my gut too long, Phil
42:57
Foden, and then not trusting my gut long enough when it's still telling me to stick
43:03
with someone.
43:05
And the person is Slanke.
43:06
I sold him before his massive haul in Game Week 16.
43:09
Sorry, Game Week 10.
43:10
16 points.
43:11
He had 16 points in Game Week 10.
43:14
I made a big mistake by selling him because I find myself in a situation now where he's
43:21
got a great fixture coming up.
43:24
And if you haven't already guessed, I will be using my wild card in Game Week 12.
43:30
So we had no idea.
43:32
With that in mind, I did not trust myself to make the right choice here.
43:40
And that's really frustrating for me because in the past I've been really good about doing
43:46
that.
43:47
The big reason here with Slanke is he has looked really good playing for Tottenham.
43:53
He hasn't quite gotten the returns that indicate he's a great FPL asset.
43:58
And Paul and I talked about this a couple of weeks ago where Paul and I were kind of
44:03
on the same boat where we were like, you know, I don't know, Slanke's been great.
44:10
And he hasn't been for FPL, but he's been so good for Spurs.
44:13
And one of the things that I brought up to Paul was he's still making the runs.
44:18
He's just not being found on the crosses or a through ball.
44:22
The ball wasn't finding his feet.
44:24
And this week the ball found his feet.
44:27
It's funny is that, um, recharleson was one that helped the ball find his feet and recharleson
44:33
got hurt.
44:34
So yeah, I'm not, I'm not saying that's a big discourse in this discussion, but like
44:39
it's just funny that, um, it was recharleson on the left wing that found Slanke striking
44:44
through the middle, you know, poor recharleson.
44:47
I do feel bad for him.
44:48
Get it picking up an injury after being on the field for what five, 10 minutes.
44:52
Got an assist though.
44:53
He can't.
44:54
To all the recharleson FPL owners out there, we fill your pain, but at least you got some
45:00
points.
45:01
Yeah.
45:02
At least you got something out of it.
45:03
Yes.
45:04
But so this is my ultimate point here that if you have a gut feeling about a player and
45:09
everyone in the community saying go one specific direction, if your gut tells you, I'll get
45:15
to go the opposite direction and you trust it there or you have some stats to back it
45:19
up.
45:20
You're just sitting on the pitch, no one else's and it makes sense to you trust that
45:24
gut feeling because that's what I should have done.
45:27
I should have trusted my gut and said, no, you know what?
45:30
I see Slanke making the runs.
45:32
He's holding up play really nicely and Ville's high line is a perfect chance for him to feast.
45:39
Yeah.
45:40
I should have trusted my gut.
45:41
I mean, I think that's very fair, but I actually looked at that match leak and I assumed wrong.
45:46
I thought Watkins was going to feast in that match on Spurs' back line, which was what
45:52
they had, who was it?
45:53
Vanne Vanne was out.
45:55
It's just a Spurs team that I mean, I think it's really hard to read exactly who they
46:00
are right now because I mean, they've had some really good, I mean, they beat City.
46:04
They beat the performance last week.
46:07
I mean, like they are a really good team, but I think they're just really still figuring
46:11
it out, you know, which is kind of crazy because it's already year two of age.
46:15
But I mean, when you have sawn out, when you have injuries, when you have all these different
46:18
things, it's really hard to like put the pieces together, but it seems like maybe Slanke
46:25
turned a corner last week.
46:26
And here's another point that I want to bring up for the potential of Game Week 11.
46:33
Second game of the season.
46:37
Spurs beat Everton 4-0 at home.
46:42
Game Week 5, they have Brinfurt at home.
46:44
They win 3-1.
46:47
West Ham at home, they win 4-1.
46:50
Astonville at home in Game Week 10, they win 4-1.
46:55
So there's a trend here, right?
46:57
At home, they're a completely different team than they are when they're away.
47:03
And Ipswich at home is one of the best fixtures we're going to see a team have throughout the
47:09
course of the season.
47:10
That's a prime fixture.
47:11
Because there's so many different variables here, but Tottenham have created, I think
47:17
created the most big chances.
47:18
I know they've created the highest XG in the league.
47:23
Ipswich have conceded the highest XG in the league.
47:26
And it just feels like that there's a storm brewing to have Tottenham just go out and
47:34
thrash Ipswich.
47:36
We'll see what happens.
47:38
It would fit the Spurs narrative of this year that Ipswich wins 1-0.
47:43
It would just fit the narrative so well about, I think, like this isn't my arsenal bias slipping
47:48
through it all, but I think they've been really just like bringing their fans high, dragging
47:54
them low.
47:55
And they just need to find that balance.
47:57
And I think that's partly due to how they play.
47:59
I think they're trying to figure out who they think they are.
48:02
There's a lot of things going on at the end of the day.
48:05
But they have to find more of a solid baseline realistically, I think, for them to do this
48:11
over the long season.
48:12
But it is a great fixture then the day.
48:15
What you were saying just now, I think it does apply to Tottenham very well.
48:19
But I think that also applies to Citi.
48:21
Because Citi find themselves in this point in the season where they've had a lot of injuries.
48:27
A lot of players haven't been available.
48:29
But they, casting my memory back, I cannot remember a time where they struggled this
48:35
much before, I mean, they stuck up last year before Christmas.
48:40
They did, but not at this level.
48:42
I mean, they losing three fixtures in a row.
48:45
That is unheard of for them.
48:47
I don't know, but it's fucking great.
48:49
Let me see.
48:50
Coming from the arsenal fan here.
48:53
This is, this is, I had a dream like this once and now I'm, now I'm awake and it's great.
48:59
Oh my, my.
49:01
But yeah, I don't, I don't know.
49:02
Like I think, do you want to kind of highlight some fixtures next week?
49:07
I know we've talked more a little bit about fixtures, but we can maybe highlight some
49:10
different things and then probably sign off because I'm getting a little sleepy.
49:14
Yes.
49:15
I think the best way to approach that is I'm going to give you my best one week punt.
49:21
Just going into game week 11.
49:22
Are you going to give a player or?
49:24
Yeah, a player.
49:25
Okay.
49:26
I'll give one to the player that I think is the best punny option out there at the
49:30
moment is no one other than Hume and Son.
49:34
I think that's a good show.
49:36
Son is currently at, let's look at, he's currently owned by 6.2% in the game.
49:43
Crazy.
49:44
When I looked at this yesterday, he was 5%.
49:45
So quit transferring him in people.
49:49
Son has been in and out of the squad.
49:52
He's been injured.
49:53
His underlying stats do look pretty good when he's on the pitch though.
49:58
He's averaging about a goal of goal involvement every, I would say he's averaging about half
50:08
a goal involvement every match, which is really good considering everything.
50:11
So when you look at Son though, a lot of people worried about how he's very wide out
50:16
of left on the pitch that they think he's not entirely involved.
50:21
I think he's instrumentally important to how they play because he opens up that's half
50:26
space.
50:27
Yeah.
50:28
So in this fixture against Ipswich, I think Son could absolutely feast with the caveat.
50:36
We need to make sure he's healthy for the fixture because I'm a little worried because
50:41
he did play 55 minutes in this match.
50:44
Postacogli came out and said that we knew he wasn't going to play more than 50 to 60
50:48
minutes.
50:49
It just wasn't going to happen.
50:50
So maybe with an entire week's worth of rest, he's able to go 70 minutes, 80 minutes.
50:58
But against Ipswich, it's possible they only need him for a half.
51:01
Maybe a little more than that, but it could be six nil at half.
51:06
It could be really bad.
51:07
It could be really bad for Ipswich.
51:10
For their sake, I hope it's not, but from an FPL perspective, strictly, I would love
51:16
to see Spurs go run rampant here.
51:18
I mean, Ipswich may be canceling Calvin Phillips alone during at halftime of this match.
51:22
We'll see what happens.
51:23
I wouldn't put it past them.
51:25
We'll see what happens.
51:26
I really like that choice.
51:28
I think Sans, he's such an underrated asset in this game.
51:31
He has price points a little high for somebody that's not going to play as much, but he is
51:35
a great option going forward.
51:38
If I had to pick anybody for this game week, I really like Bruno Fernandez.
51:44
I thought you'd go there.
51:46
I don't know, man.
51:47
I just think that with the new manager balance of an interim manager, he had a penalty last
51:53
week.
51:54
He's always going to be creating chances, and it seems like he's more of in that free-floating
51:59
roll up top rather than getting more of a box-to-box.
52:04
He's more in the creative side of things.
52:06
I don't know.
52:07
To me, it sounds like a little bit of a spicy option.
52:11
What is his percentage-owned?
52:16
Playing Lester at home?
52:17
I can figure that out real quick.
52:21
I'll tell you in a second.
52:23
How would you feel, Paul, about someone not wild carding free-hitting in game week 11?
52:30
I don't think it's horrible.
52:32
I think there's good fixtures to target.
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You have United playing Lester at home.
52:35
You have, of course, Spurs playing Ipswich.
52:41
You could argue that Wolves playing Southampton is really spicy for Wolves.
52:47
There's, let's see, Fulham playing Crystal Palace.
52:50
Fulham have some good assets there that are lower tier medium price assets.
52:55
If you're going to free hit, you could take a chance against Crystal Palace, who is also
52:59
going to be without, who Wharton this week, too.
53:03
They're just even more decimated than usual.
53:07
Then from there, I'm really interested.
53:11
This is a side topic that I won't go too much with tangent on.
53:14
I'm really interested to see Nottingham Force play to your castle.
53:18
Yeah, that'll be a fun match.
53:20
I think there's a chance that we're going to see this vaunted Nottingham Force defense.
53:26
I think we may see it fall apart this week.
53:28
Here's the thing though.
53:29
I think ESAC is going to terrorize them.
53:32
There are a ton of Premier League fixtures in game week 11 that teams are going to get
53:36
caught out, I think.
53:38
I could easily see something happening where City are struggling right now.
53:43
This Brighton team under Herzler has been moving really differently.
53:52
They have returned in a lot of fixtures that people didn't think they were going to.
53:56
I could see them stealing points against City.
54:00
You're going to see probably a Danny Wellbeck falling reamer, a screamer, or a goal where
54:06
he falls and then the ball bounces off his head and some outcomes.
54:10
Here's my question to you though.
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I mean, I'm one of our favorite podcast guests out there, Kyle.
54:18
He currently has Danny Wellbeck in his team.
54:21
How does he feel when Danny Wellbeck goes for a brace against City?
54:26
His beloved for four straight L's, his beloved men.
54:30
How do you think that would feel?
54:31
It would be very conflicting.
54:33
I would imagine.
54:35
I don't think he'd like it.
54:36
I think I think Kyle's in the same situation as me.
54:39
Where like, if I have enough BL asset that's ever playing Arsenal, which I had Salah last
54:44
week, I was still very upset Arsenal lost tonight.
54:48
To me, it's understandable.
54:50
One matters a lot more than the other, you know?
54:53
Fair enough.
54:54
Yep.
54:55
I think that's the thing.
54:56
I would absolutely love for Danny Wellbeck to score a couple of bangers against City.
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That'd be great.
55:02
It does feel like it's poetically.
55:06
From a storytelling perspective, Danny Wellbeck with a brace in City at home, that makes perfect
55:10
sense to me.
55:11
It feels like it is scripted perfectly by the Premier League.
55:15
Talking about the Premier League scripting things.
55:18
I mean, oh God, pause.
55:20
We're not going to let's not go there.
55:22
That could be another hour long podcast if Paul gets into it.
55:26
Yeah.
55:27
I think that is going to pretty much do it for us.
55:31
We will be back with you all next week during the Baron Wasteland that is the international
55:36
break.
55:37
We're going to talk about getting ready for the festive fixtures, probably go over a little
55:42
bit review of what's happened so far during that current international break, how players
55:48
are performing, what teams are performing well, and if there's any injuries as well.
55:54
With that being said, if you are going to be wild carding into Game Week 12, go ahead
55:59
and pop that wild card as soon as Game Week 3 starts.
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Game Week 11 is done because you want to make sure you're catching those price rises over
56:08
the international break.
56:09
So keep that in mind as you're going through that.
56:11
Paul, do you have any final thoughts for the listeners out there?
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Well, I was going to bring up the playing the wild card early, I think, but you basically
56:18
cover that.
56:19
But no, I think, like we've talked about in the podcast, we're going to kind of do a
56:24
deep dive into the facts.
56:26
I cannot say it.
56:27
Festive fixtures.
56:28
Festive fixtures.
56:30
Sorry, my brain's just done, but that's going to be a like such an instrumental part of
56:37
your FPL season.
56:38
So go ahead and start doing research now.
56:40
It doesn't have to be anything too intensive, but kind of figure out what players you think
56:44
you need going forward.
56:45
And if you have a wild card, or if you don't like Kyle, go ahead and plan it out.
56:50
No, I'm sorry, I can't help but to put the ball on Kyle on the podcast when he's not
56:54
here and sitting here doing bad.
56:57
Then the podcast though, Paul, I just want to applaud myself.
57:00
I only talked about Fleck and once in the pod.
57:02
So we'll make that two now.
57:04
But yeah, as Paul said, we hope you guys have a great rest of your week.
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And thank you for joining us for this podcast.
57:12
It's been a lot of fun.
57:13
We'll be back with you next week to talk about getting ready for those festive fixtures and
57:17
the international break.
57:18
All right, everybody.
57:19
We'll talk to you soon.
57:20
Take care, guys.