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Pauline, Queen of the North · The Front

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: From The Australian, here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Monday, September 28, 2026. Pauline Hanson is now the
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  Speaker 1: Queen of the North, a political celebrity like nobody else
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  Speaker 1: on the scene today, as evidenced by Australia's most authoritative
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  Speaker 1: opinion tracker, NewsPoll. One Nation has overtaken Labor in the
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  Speaker 1: Coalition on primary votes and in New South Wales and Queensland,
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  Speaker 1: and is only one point behind Labor in WA and
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  Speaker 1: South Australia. That's according to exclusive NewsPoll quarterly analysis prepared
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  Speaker 1: for The Australian by Pixis Polling and Insights. And now
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  Speaker 1: Pauline Hanson's reformed, reorganised party is shaping the policy conversation
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  Speaker 1: rather than just blowing up about it. Today, can the
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  Speaker 1: major parties rediscover their riz or will the daggy old
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  Speaker 1: preferential voting system have to save their bacon?
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  Speaker 2: The greatest honour that I have is when people come
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  Speaker 2: up to me, shake my hand, give me a hug
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  Speaker 2: and say, never give up, you're a fighter.
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  Speaker 1: Pauline Hanson is the preferred Prime Minister of Queenslanders, according
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  Speaker 1: to a new news poll out this morning.
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  Speaker 2: People don't like me.
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  Speaker 1: It's bizarre, right?
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  Speaker 2: I'm just an ornery grassroots woman. I care about people,
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  Speaker 2: but I'm also.
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  Speaker 1: A tough nut. I'm joined by Richard Ferguson, who's the
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  Speaker 1: Australian's Federal Parliamentary Bureau Chief. Richard, this is a massive
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  Speaker 1: result for Pauline Hanson in Queensland, but it is her
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  Speaker 1: home turf. How do you think this compares to how
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  Speaker 1: One Nation is going in other parts of the country?
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  Speaker 3: Well, there's no doubt, Claire, that Pauline Hanson isn't just
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  Speaker 3: a head in Queensland, she is dominating Queensland. To steal
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  Speaker 3: the Game of Thrones reference that people used for Andy Burnham,
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  Speaker 3: she is the queen in the north. She's got a 36%
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  Speaker 3: primary vote. I mean, that's the kind of primary vote
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  Speaker 3: that you would expect the Labour Party or the Coalition
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  Speaker 3: to have had in that state or nationally just a
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  Speaker 3: couple of years ago. That's a dominating primary vote. She's
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  Speaker 3: also significantly ahead in the preferred prime minister question we've
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  Speaker 3: asked with her in albanese in queensland she's ahead 55
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  Speaker 3: to albanese's 45 but she's doing pretty well in the
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  Speaker 3: rest of the country too not those kind of numbers
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  Speaker 3: but it's more that kind of 31 30 29 area
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  Speaker 3: that we've had her nationally in news poll but you
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  Speaker 3: know you look at new south wales she's the top
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  Speaker 3: party by about a point in new south wales she
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  Speaker 3: is just in within a point with Labour in Western Australia.
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  Speaker 3: Western Australia, the state that Labour has dominated since COVID,
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  Speaker 3: the Mark McGowan, Roger Cook, one-party state of Western Australia,
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  Speaker 3: is now turning to Pauline Hanson in a massive way.
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  Speaker 3: The only state that she's not as dominant in is Victoria,
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  Speaker 3: where obviously the Victorian Liberals are a very good chance
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  Speaker 3: of winning a majority vote. at the state election in November.
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  Speaker 3: But on a federal part, she is still second, not
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  Speaker 3: the Liberals. So she's doing well everywhere.
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  Speaker 1: Traditionally, One Nation was kind of sucking votes away from
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  Speaker 1: the coalition parties, the Liberals and the Nats. Now she
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  Speaker 1: seems to be taking voters from Labour. And, you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's not surprising, I suppose, that in the middle of
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  Speaker 1: Anthony Albanese's second term, while he's swanning around in New
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  Speaker 1: York collecting awards for being a global citizen, that voters
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  Speaker 1: here in Australia would think, I'm not sure if you've
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  Speaker 1: really got my priorities at heart. But it has to
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  Speaker 1: be more than that, Richard. What else is Labour doing
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  Speaker 1: wrong that is making Queensland, in particular, turn so strongly
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  Speaker 1: to Pauline Hanson?
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  Speaker 3: So the interesting thing about Queensland is nobody really expected
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  Speaker 3: that sweep of seats that Albanese won in 2025, especially
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  Speaker 3: because it was Peter Dutton's state. You know, Peter Dutton
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  Speaker 3: epitomised the conservative, pro-business, anti-crime, anti-woke nature of Queensland. But
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  Speaker 3: he ended up losing because his policies were all over
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  Speaker 3: the places. We all know what Peter Dutton, and he
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  Speaker 3: ceded a lot of ground wherever it came to climate,
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  Speaker 3: wherever it came to taxes. And now we've got Anthony
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  Speaker 3: Albanese in the second term going, Oh, remember the Bill
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  Speaker 3: Shorten that Queensland hated? Well, let's start pushing those policies through.
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  Speaker 3: Who needs a Bob Brown caravan when you have Jim Chalmers'
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  Speaker 3: fifth budget? So I'm not particularly surprised at Queensland. And
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  Speaker 3: I think our political editor, Jeff Chambers, in The Australian
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  Speaker 3: Today has made it pretty clear the Queensland result of
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  Speaker 3: 2025 was an aberration.
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  Speaker 2: Today the Australian people have voted for Australian values.
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  Speaker 1: And I acknowledge the traditional owners of.
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  Speaker 3: The land of Western Australia. This is not going to
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  Speaker 3: happen again. Those are the seats, those seats that Anthony
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  Speaker 3: Albanese took off the Liberals in 2025, they will be
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  Speaker 3: the first to go if this one nation sweep goes
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  Speaker 3: all the way to 2028.
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  Speaker 1: It's not going to be just those seats though. It's
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  Speaker 1: Labor strongholds like Rankin, Jim Chalmers' seat, regional seats like
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  Speaker 1: Capricornia and Dawson. They're all seeing massive shifts towards One Nation,
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  Speaker 1: even though they're quite diverse. I mean, Rankin is much
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  Speaker 1: more an urban seat than the other two. So there's
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  Speaker 1: something particularly about Queensland. One of the factors that I
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  Speaker 1: wonder about, Richard, is the Ben Roberts-Smith factor. Pauline Hanson
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  Speaker 1: has very cleverly made herself the minister for Ben Roberts-Smith.
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  Speaker 2: I see Ben Robert Smith as a highly decorated war
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  Speaker 2: hero and he always will be that to me. I
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  Speaker 2: highly respect that man and what he's done.
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  Speaker 1: That's a really interesting part of it, isn't it? It's
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  Speaker 1: almost like a new culture war that she's starting about
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  Speaker 1: patriotism and, you know, Queenslandism.
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  Speaker 3: Well, in a way, Ben Robert Smith has kind of
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  Speaker 3: become Pauline Hanson's John the Baptist. He's been the first fro.
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  Speaker 3: He's become the martyr that has... allowed Pauline Hanson and
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  Speaker 3: her apostles to rise. Her apostles, of course, including Gina Reinhart,
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  Speaker 3: the nation's richest woman, who, you know, one of the
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  Speaker 3: reasons why she turned against the liberals and particularly against
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  Speaker 3: Andrew Hastie was Andrew Hastie's opposition to Ben Robert Smith.
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  Speaker 3: Though it must be said, Andrew Hastie has clearly decided
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  Speaker 3: that being an enemy of Ben Robert Smith is not
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  Speaker 3: such a bad thing because he is the first person
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  Speaker 3: to have really went for Pauline Hanson personally after so
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  Speaker 3: many politicians have avoided doing that for fear of a
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  Speaker 3: Hillary Clinton deplorables moment.
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  Speaker 1: You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put
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  Speaker 1: half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket
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  Speaker 1: of deplorables.
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  Speaker 3: There is a lot of support for Ben Robert Smith
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  Speaker 3: out there, especially in Queensland, especially in Western Australia, where
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  Speaker 3: obviously He has the support of the West Australian media magnate,
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  Speaker 3: Kerry Stokes. Let's see how that holds up. But right now,
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  Speaker 3: it's been a great boon for her.
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  Speaker 1: In Western Australia, of course, One Nation just won the
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  Speaker 1: state seat of secret harbour from the Liberals after the
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  Speaker 1: incumbent was decided to leave Parliament. What's happening in WA
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  Speaker 1: for One Nation, according to this quarterly analysis of Newspoll?
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  Speaker 3: Well, according to this quarterly analysis, Labour is still ahead
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  Speaker 3: in Western Australia, but by one point compared to One Nation.
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  Speaker 3: Only one point. Because Labour will not direct preferences to
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  Speaker 3: One Nation, they will always preference the Liberals above One Nation,
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  Speaker 3: you would imagine. If Liberals get into a first or
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  Speaker 3: second spot in most elections, they could actually do okay,
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  Speaker 3: like they did in South Australia where Liberals survived, not
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  Speaker 3: a lot of them, but they survived enough to remain
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  Speaker 3: in opposition because of Labour preferences. Labour does not have that,
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  Speaker 3: especially in these Conservative seats, these Queensland seats, these outer
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  Speaker 3: suburban Western Australian seats, where they're not getting the kind
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  Speaker 3: of preference flow they get in the cities from the
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  Speaker 3: Greens or, you know, Teal-like candidates. So they are very
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  Speaker 3: exposed in these outer suburban areas because basically they'll either
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  Speaker 3: be fighting the Libs or One Nation and Libs and
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  Speaker 3: One Nation preferences will be swapping between the two. So
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  Speaker 3: Labour may end up having more to fear from One
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  Speaker 3: Nation than the Liberals do because there's just not enough
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  Speaker 3: Liberals to be scared of. And they're going to benefit
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  Speaker 3: from Labour preferences. Labour are not going to benefit from
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  Speaker 3: really anybody's preferences in some of these contests.
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  Speaker 1: The tide started turning for Anthony Albanese after the December
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  Speaker 1: 2025 Bondi Beach Massacre. That's when we really saw his
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  Speaker 1: numbers start to slide. But then the decline was, you know,
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  Speaker 1: really cemented in May when the Labor government tried to
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  Speaker 1: do something that I think they thought was sort of populism.
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  Speaker 1: We're delivering a fairer tax system for workers, first-time buyers
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  Speaker 1: and young people. It was like they tried to do populism,
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  Speaker 1: but not as well as One Nation does it. One
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  Speaker 1: Nation has now become the party that makes policy that
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  Speaker 1: gets people talking. So they came up with this superannuation policy.
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  Speaker 2: Our treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is saying that I want to
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  Speaker 2: shut super down. That's the furthest thing from the truth.
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  Speaker 2: We're allowing those struggling Australians to be able to access
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  Speaker 2: their super and use now for a period of up
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  Speaker 2: to three years. It is by their choice.
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  Speaker 1: God knows how they would actually implement that. But that
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  Speaker 1: policy seems to have resonated with One Nation supporters and
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  Speaker 1: even people who Labor thought its budget would appeal to, right?
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  Speaker 1: They're capturing something in voters that Labor itself cannot get
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  Speaker 1: to anymore.
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  Speaker 3: What's really interesting in these numbers and the quarterly analysis, Claire,
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  Speaker 3: is that in that 18 to 34 mark, so Gen
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  Speaker 3: Z and late millennials, One Nation have a primary vote
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  Speaker 3: of 23%. That is a big chunk. You never saw
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  Speaker 3: numbers like that for the coalition. In fact, the coalition
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  Speaker 3: are 12% in that 18 to 34 bracket, which makes
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  Speaker 3: you think that the coalition have become a party of
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  Speaker 3: old people because in the oldest age bracket that the
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  Speaker 3: quarterly analysis looks at, that is where the coalition's vote
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  Speaker 3: is holding up the most. That's where it's the strongest.
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  Speaker 3: It seems to be the elderly who are not into
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  Speaker 3: One Nation as much. But when it comes to Gen
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  Speaker 3: Z and millennials, they're doing pretty well. And I think
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  Speaker 3: it's because the coalition never had policies that appear to
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  Speaker 3: be targeted at young people, ever. They didn't have any policies.
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  Speaker 3: Labour went and then did these tax policies that they
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  Speaker 3: thought that young people would like, only to misunderstand that
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  Speaker 3: a lot of young people build wealth through stocks now.
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  Speaker 3: So they're worried about that. And Labour are the ultimate
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  Speaker 3: guardians of the integrity of the super system. And therefore,
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  Speaker 3: they will always lock them out of that. And then,
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  Speaker 3: of course, they grandfathered all these tax changes. So a
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  Speaker 3: lot of people just went, they can still have their
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  Speaker 3: negative gearing property. How is this actually helping me?
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  Speaker 1: The other part of that I reckon that they misinterpreted
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  Speaker 1: is how articulate and good at explaining things a whole
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  Speaker 1: new generation of social media people are, you know, influencers basically,
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  Speaker 1: but who have access to those young people, right? So
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  Speaker 1: their policy was just being demolished within days by very
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  Speaker 1: smart people on TikTok who Labor kind of like hadn't
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  Speaker 1: seen coming.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it shows like, I mean, the memes were just flowing.
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  Speaker 1: Sweet, I just passed Guy. I get 200 bucks. Whoa there, buddy.
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  Speaker 1: This is an Australian monopoly.
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  Speaker 2: 50% of your income is taxed.
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  Speaker 3: Are you serious? The CGT thing especially was very difficult
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  Speaker 3: for the more young people. As you say, these influences
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  Speaker 3: were everywhere. You know, at The Australian, we really leaned
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  Speaker 3: into telling these stories because these stories were everywhere. And
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  Speaker 3: then Jim Chalmers was saying it's just sectional interest. So
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  Speaker 3: it wasn't sectional interest. It was widespread. And that's been
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  Speaker 3: seen in these quarterly analysis numbers from News Bowl for sure.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, what's the Pauline Hanson formula for keeping your
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  Speaker 1: finger on the pulse? Music So there's a couple of
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  Speaker 1: tests coming for One Nation now. First up is the
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  Speaker 1: Victorian state election, where the old tired Labor government might
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  Speaker 1: have a new premier, but they've got a serious opposition
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  Speaker 1: now with the new opposition leader, Jess Wilson. Then comes
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  Speaker 1: New South Wales state election, where the dominant Labor premier,
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  Speaker 1: Chris Minns, and his Labor Party, I think, are seriously
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  Speaker 1: worried much more about One Nation than they are about
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  Speaker 1: the coalition. And then a federal election at some point
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  Speaker 1: in the future. Something that's really interesting, I reckon, Richard,
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  Speaker 1: is the difference in One Nation's popularity at the state
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  Speaker 1: level in Queensland, where they actually have a sort of dynamic,
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  Speaker 1: fairly popular, you know, new-ish state premier in David Chris Foley.
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  Speaker 1: Is that the other part of the problem, that Pauline
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  Speaker 1: Hanson is just more appealing as a figure than Anthony
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  Speaker 1: Albanese and Angus Taylor? Like, she can express herself, actually, weirdly,
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  Speaker 1: she can express herself better in language that is more
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  Speaker 1: resonant with ordinary voters than Either of those people can.
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  Speaker 3: Pauline Hanson is a celebrity, Claire. That's what puts her apart.
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  Speaker 3: Like Donald Trump, she is a celebrity. She is not
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  Speaker 3: just a politician. And if this was a direct presidential election,
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  Speaker 3: you would bet on Pauline Hanson to win. What is
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  Speaker 3: going to be her enemy is going to be the
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  Speaker 3: preferential voting system for a parliamentary Westminster system. It is
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  Speaker 3: the preferential system... that will be her biggest trouble in
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  Speaker 3: ever getting to, say, a majority in the House of Representatives.
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  Speaker 3: In terms of the states, I think that's also very interesting, too,
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  Speaker 3: because the same is true of Anthony Albanese. Anthony Albanese
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  Speaker 3: is nowhere near as charismatic as Peter Malinowskis in South
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  Speaker 3: Australia or Chris Minns in New South Wales. And it's
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  Speaker 3: the same true of Angus Taylor. He's not as good
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  Speaker 3: as David Christofili, and he's definitely not as good as
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  Speaker 3: Jess Wilson. One person who does not have that problem
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  Speaker 3: is Pauline Hanson. Pauline Hanson is the star of the
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  Speaker 3: show wherever she goes.
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  Speaker 1: Richard Ferguson, thank you very much.
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  Speaker 3: Thanks so much, Claire.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Richard Ferguson is The Australian's Canberra Bureau Chief. Check out
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: that news poll analysis and be the first to know
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: about all the big yarns in politics by joining our
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: subscribers at theaustralian.com.au.