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Transcript

Predictable with Stu Burguiere - The Countdown Is ON: Two Weeks Until Crucial Midterm Elections · Blaze Media

• 0:00
  We are 2 weeks away
• 0:02
  from the midterms.
• 0:03
  Oh my gosh,
• 0:04
  I've got the state of the race for you,
• 0:06
  for the Senate,
• 0:07
  for governor's races,
• 0:08
  some House as well.
• 0:09
  We'll get into all that today.
• 0:11
  We also have NBA basketball kicking back off tonight.
• 0:13
  I will,
• 0:14
  I wanna watch closely to see
• 0:16
  if we can potentially stop LeBron James
• 0:19
  from uh winning another championship,
• 0:20
  very important in my life.
• 0:21
  And I've got a new candidate countdown as well.
• 0:24
  We like to look at a different candidate every
• 0:25
  day that not only is an interesting race,
• 0:27
  but also one that might make you a little bit of money on prediction markets.
• 0:30
  All of that and more is coming up on today's Predictable with Stu.
• 0:48
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:51
  So much to get to.
• 0:52
  14 days until the midterm elections where
• 0:54
  we are hopefully going to be very profitable
• 0:57
  and hopefully get some good results for the country too,
• 0:59
  cause that's kind of important.
• 1:00
  I don't know if you knew that,
• 1:01
  uh,
• 1:01
  very,
• 1:01
  very important.
• 1:02
  By the way,
• 1:02
  early voting already happening
• 1:04
  in 35 states,
• 1:05
  so the election is well underway
• 1:08
  already.
• 1:09
  Maybe later in the week,
• 1:10
  uh,
• 1:10
  Adam,
• 1:10
  we should look at a little bit of that,
• 1:11
  uh,
• 1:12
  early voting data that is coming in.
• 1:13
  There's some interesting stuff going on.
• 1:15
  Look,
• 1:16
  you're gonna see early voting data online.
• 1:18
  You should know to be very,
• 1:19
  very hesitant to make vast conclusions based on it.
• 1:23
  It is
• 1:24
  always,
• 1:24
  it,
• 1:25
  the main thing early voting data does is mislead people,
• 1:28
  but we'll try to cut through some of the noise maybe a little bit,
• 1:29
  uh,
• 1:30
  later this week.
• 1:31
  Um,
• 1:31
  uh,
• 1:32
  if you have not joined yet,
• 1:33
  the Senate Fantasy League that we have going on,
• 1:35
  you should get in it because it's free to join
• 1:37
  and it's there's thousands of dollars in
• 1:39
  cash prizes just for predicting the winners
• 1:41
  of the Senate.
• 1:42
  It takes like 5 minutes to get your team in.
• 1:44
  It's a lot of fun.
• 1:45
  We're doing it now,
• 1:45
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 1:47
  It's,
• 1:48
  uh,
• 1:48
  it's something I think you'll enjoy and hopefully,
• 1:50
  you'll definitely enjoy it if you win,
• 1:51
  because then you can,
• 1:52
  you know,
• 1:52
  either fill your prediction market account
• 1:54
  for investing in the future,
• 1:56
  or you can fill your belly with incredible amounts of Taco Bell.
• 1:59
  Uh,
• 2:00
  both of those things can happen with Senate Fantasy.com.
• 2:02
  And,
• 2:02
  and do we have the Senate Fantasy leaderboard,
• 2:04
  uh,
• 2:04
  up,
• 2:04
  by the way?
• 2:05
  This is,
• 2:05
  um,
• 2:06
  there's,
• 2:06
  you know,
• 2:06
  hundreds of people in it already.
• 2:07
  You start with 1000 points and then go up,
• 2:10
  up and down from there.
• 2:11
  The number 1 team right now is bring back the,
• 2:14
  the Redskins at number 1.
• 2:16
  Dave Landau for president is #2 currently.
• 2:19
  Interesting.
• 2:20
  Now,
• 2:20
  Dave told me today,
• 2:21
  uh,
• 2:21
  I do a show called Stu and Dave Do America
• 2:23
  as well on Blaze TV.
• 2:25
  Uh,
• 2:25
  something that I think you would enjoy.
• 2:27
  But,
• 2:28
  uh,
• 2:28
  Dave said he's gonna be putting a team in,
• 2:29
  but it's not in yet,
• 2:30
  so that's not Dave.
• 2:32
  Uh,
• 2:32
  so I don't know who this is,
• 2:33
  but Dave Landau for president,
• 2:34
  the Blue Tsunami,
• 2:36
  Dubbells,
• 2:37
  uh,
• 2:37
  Panic Day prophecy.
• 2:39
  And it's interesting if you look here,
• 2:41
  and I'm gonna skip over the 10th slot there.
• 2:43
  Well,
• 2:43
  first of all,
• 2:43
  number 9 is definitely not Stuber here.
• 2:46
  Now,
• 2:46
  that is not my team.
• 2:48
  However,
• 2:48
  I think I can plausibly claim it if it wins.
• 2:51
  Cause you're not gonna remember this segment.
• 2:53
  And if I say not,
• 2:54
  definitely not super good.
• 2:55
  That was a joke.
• 2:56
  It actually is my team,
• 2:57
  you'll believe that.
• 2:58
  I just,
• 2:58
  the,
• 2:59
  the sad thing I don't want to address here is that Adam,
• 3:01
  our producer,
• 3:02
  is somehow in 10th place in this competition,
• 3:04
  which is a travesty.
• 3:06
  It's a sham,
• 3:07
  it's a mockery.
• 3:08
  It's a Travis sham mockery.
• 3:10
  Um,
• 3:10
  but I will say this.
• 3:12
  If you look at Adam,
• 3:12
  Steve,
• 3:13
  click on your team there,
• 3:13
  Adam,
• 3:14
  for a minute.
• 3:14
  And this is,
• 3:15
  when you click on the team,
• 3:16
  is it,
• 3:16
  or if you're not,
• 3:16
  or if you're not logged in,
• 3:17
  this isn't gonna work,
• 3:18
  is it?
• 3:19
  Uh,
• 3:19
  you're probably not logged in.
• 3:21
  typical Adam.
• 3:21
  He could,
• 3:22
  he could pick a top 10 team,
• 3:23
  but he can't log in his own account.
• 3:25
  Anyway,
• 3:26
  uh,
• 3:26
  if you log in,
• 3:27
  you,
• 3:27
  you click on the teams and you can see.
• 3:30
  Everybody who's been picked.
• 3:31
  And we have this set up,
• 3:32
  like it's very easy for you to do.
• 3:33
  If you don't even know these races,
• 3:35
  you can still guess,
• 3:36
  uh,
• 3:36
  you know,
• 3:36
  you got a 1 or 2 chance in these,
• 3:37
  and,
• 3:37
  and they show the percentages.
• 3:38
  It's very easy.
• 3:40
  But,
• 3:40
  you know,
• 3:40
  you have to take certain things from certain areas.
• 3:42
  You can take,
• 3:43
  there's regional candidates,
• 3:44
  you have to take an east candidate,
• 3:44
  a south candidate,
• 3:45
  a west candidate,
• 3:46
  um,
• 3:47
  you know,
• 3:47
  you pick an MVP,
• 3:48
  you got to pick one Republican and one Democrat.
• 3:50
  So every single team
• 3:51
  has at least one of each.
• 3:53
  Some of these teams though I've noticed,
• 3:55
  are picking like,
• 3:56
  let's say,
• 3:56
  all Democrats.
• 3:58
  OK,
• 3:58
  now we can see it.
• 3:58
  Here's Adam's team.
• 3:59
  And this is an example of it.
• 4:01
  All Democrats,
• 4:01
  except for the one time,
• 4:03
  you have to pick a Republican.
• 4:04
  In this case,
• 4:05
  he picked a Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 4:07
  I mean,
• 4:07
  we know what Darlene Graham Nordone looks like.
• 4:09
  Can we get her picture up there?
• 4:10
  What,
• 4:10
  what's going on with the site?
• 4:12
  Adam Hamilton,
• 4:13
  just no picture.
• 4:14
  He's a major,
• 4:15
  uh,
• 4:15
  you know,
• 4:16
  uh,
• 4:16
  mega church pastor in Kansas,
• 4:19
  and,
• 4:19
  uh,
• 4:20
  just no picture of him.
• 4:21
  Uh,
• 4:21
  you mentioned this to Brett.
• 4:23
  Brett,
• 4:23
  he's,
• 4:24
  he's on the plane.
• 4:24
  He can fix it on the plane.
• 4:26
  Add some,
• 4:26
  add some pictures.
• 4:27
  Um,
• 4:28
  at the,
• 4:28
  at the,
• 4:29
  uh,
• 4:29
  double point MVP he has as Abdul El Sayed.
• 4:32
  He's got Tallarico and Troy Jackson and Ossoff and,
• 4:35
  Uh,
• 4:35
  Sherrod Brown and Pelt,
• 4:36
  he picked almost all Democrats thinking there's gonna be maybe a bluish wave.
• 4:40
  What's interesting about this,
• 4:42
  we built this tool really for fun.
• 4:44
  For you to be able to have a place to kind of just hang out,
• 4:46
  make some predictions,
• 4:48
  go against your friends.
• 4:48
  There's a share feature where you can kind of challenge your friends on this.
• 4:52
  I encourage you to use that.
• 4:53
  Uh,
• 4:53
  you can battle them on the leaderboard.
• 4:55
  It's just fun to see who can predict the election better.
• 4:57
  But what it's actually kind of done is it's almost
• 5:00
  turned into
• 5:01
  an interesting measure
• 5:03
  as to what's happening in the election.
• 5:05
  Go back to that leaderboard for a second.
• 5:06
  Um,
• 5:07
  if you go to the top of this list,
• 5:09
  um,
• 5:09
  and you'll see some of these teams,
• 5:10
  again,
• 5:11
  the number 1 team bring back the Redskins.
• 5:13
  Uh,
• 5:13
  if you click on that,
• 5:14
  I'm gonna just tell you without even looking at it,
• 5:15
  it's gonna be all look at us,
• 5:16
  all Democrats,
• 5:17
  right?
• 5:17
  Dave Landau for president,
• 5:18
  what's he got?
• 5:19
  Uh,
• 5:20
  let's see,
• 5:20
  uh,
• 5:21
  almost all Democrats,
• 5:22
  only one extra Republican outside of the minimum.
• 5:25
  The Blue tsunami
• 5:27
  is the next one.
• 5:28
  there's only one Republican outside of the minimum.
• 5:31
  Um,
• 5:32
  Dobbells is the 4th-place 1.
• 5:34
  Again,
• 5:35
  a couple of them in there,
• 5:36
  a couple of Republicans,
• 5:38
  but generally speaking,
• 5:39
  all the teams at the top of this list
• 5:41
  are people that just basically picked all Democrats.
• 5:43
  Now,
• 5:43
  look,
• 5:44
  the,
• 5:44
  the leaderboard is fun to look at.
• 5:45
  Um,
• 5:46
  Adam is bragging about it constantly and it's infuriating.
• 5:49
  Um,
• 5:49
  but
• 5:50
  it doesn't really make much of a difference until election day,
• 5:53
  right?
• 5:54
  You're gonna look at it on election day and say,
• 5:56
  hey,
• 5:56
  if,
• 5:56
  if your candidates lose,
• 5:57
  you're gonna be weighed out at the bottom.
• 5:58
  If your candidates win,
• 5:59
  you're gonna be weighed up at the top.
• 6:00
  That's how this works.
• 6:02
  So,
• 6:02
  uh,
• 6:02
  check it out,
• 6:02
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 6:03
  And,
• 6:04
  and basically,
• 6:04
  it's telling us since
• 6:06
  we launched this competition,
• 6:07
  which is a couple of weeks ago,
• 6:09
  there has been movement in prediction markets toward Democrats
• 6:12
  all over the board.
• 6:14
  And that has been true every time I've checked it.
• 6:17
  I will say too,
• 6:18
  if you look at the leaderboard,
• 6:19
  you will see my team,
• 6:20
  and I'm not at the top,
• 6:21
  but I'm doing OK.
• 6:22
  I'm,
• 6:22
  I'm,
• 6:23
  uh,
• 6:23
  I don't know.
• 6:24
  I don't know what place I'm in.
• 6:25
  I don't know if you could find me real quick.
• 6:26
  The other thing I did notice is
• 6:28
  right behind me is now my son.
• 6:29
  Look at that,
• 6:30
  oh,
• 6:30
  no,
• 6:30
  now he's ahead of me.
• 6:31
  Oh no.
• 6:32
  No,
• 6:32
  this is terrible news.
• 6:34
  Edit this,
• 6:34
  edit this out of the show.
• 6:36
  Uh,
• 6:37
  get,
• 6:37
  get this out and post.
• 6:38
  ZB cards is my son,
• 6:39
  big sports card collector.
• 6:40
  I'm back to,
• 6:41
  I'm back to even,
• 6:42
  like,
• 6:42
  I haven't.
• 6:43
  I mean,
• 6:43
  you know,
• 6:44
  1000 points is basically where you start.
• 6:45
  So I'm at even it's,
• 6:46
  that's,
• 6:47
  uh,
• 6:47
  53rd place,
• 6:49
  uh,
• 6:49
  give or take,
• 6:50
  uh,
• 6:51
  and Zach and I are now tied.
• 6:52
  Um,
• 6:53
  but
• 6:53
  they have our employees,
• 6:54
  there's,
• 6:54
  there's a bunch of Blaze people who are adding their team.
• 6:56
  So anyway,
• 6:57
  that's just fun.
• 6:57
  Just do it.
• 6:58
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 6:59
  does tell an interesting story though
• 7:01
  about the Senate,
• 7:02
  and polling tells a story,
• 7:04
  and prediction markets tell a story.
• 7:07
  I wanna show you,
• 7:08
  this is the Calci midterms hub.
• 7:10
  This is an interesting place for you.
• 7:12
  If you are a person who's like,
• 7:13
  I,
• 7:13
  I just wanna see
• 7:14
  who's gonna win.
• 7:15
  I don't care about your stupid fantasy leagues.
• 7:16
  I don't care about your,
• 7:18
  uh,
• 7:18
  your,
• 7:18
  your prediction markets.
• 7:20
  I don't really care about any of that.
• 7:22
  You're not alone,
• 7:23
  by the way.
• 7:24
  A lot of people who watch the show
• 7:26
  don't
• 7:27
  go on prediction markets at all,
• 7:28
  and that's totally fine.
• 7:29
  Um,
• 7:29
  getting the best election
• 7:31
  coverage and election information is the goal.
• 7:34
  Calci has a,
• 7:35
  an election,
• 7:36
  election midterms hub.
• 7:37
  Let's bring that up,
• 7:38
  um,
• 7:38
  that,
• 7:38
  uh,
• 7:39
  shows you kind of a map of the states.
• 7:40
  This is,
• 7:40
  these are all the states,
• 7:41
  uh,
• 7:42
  this is a Senate map.
• 7:43
  And it shows you where everything is with the percentages
• 7:46
  next to it,
• 7:47
  so you can kind of just see where states are leaning,
• 7:49
  at least according to these prediction markets.
• 7:51
  What do people
• 7:52
  who have their money on the line actually believe?
• 7:54
  Let's go to our Senate map.
• 7:55
  This is another tool,
• 7:56
  by the way,
• 7:57
  um,
• 7:57
  the Senate,
• 7:57
  uh,
• 7:58
  the Senate board,
• 7:59
  um,
• 8:00
  uh,
• 8:00
  that's another tool that we have for you
• 8:03
  to kind of be able to see.
• 8:06
  And play with Senate control.
• 8:08
  If you're saying,
• 8:08
  well,
• 8:08
  this state's kind of a toss-up,
• 8:10
  this state's leaning this way,
• 8:11
  and you can kind of drag the states around yourself
• 8:13
  and be able to see
• 8:15
  who has control of the Senate and who doesn't.
• 8:16
  And I thought it'd be an interesting exercise.
• 8:18
  We did this the other day with the,
• 8:19
  uh,
• 8:19
  with the election model,
• 8:20
  another free tool that we have up
• 8:22
  at predictableShow.com.
• 8:24
  Tons of this stuff is up there,
• 8:25
  and I built this.
• 8:26
  Honestly,
• 8:27
  for myself,
• 8:28
  uh,
• 8:28
  because I,
• 8:29
  this is how I think through the elections,
• 8:30
  and I,
• 8:31
  I thought,
• 8:31
  well,
• 8:31
  if I'm doing this,
• 8:32
  and I'm doing this for my prediction market positions,
• 8:34
  I want you to have access to this as well,
• 8:36
  and you can drag these states around wherever you want,
• 8:39
  and you can,
• 8:39
  it'll calculate for you in real time.
• 8:41
  So this is the predictable Senate board where we are right now,
• 8:44
  and I put all of these states that are,
• 8:46
  uh,
• 8:47
  in the toss-up category,
• 8:48
  we're gonna drag these,
• 8:49
  uh,
• 8:49
  to both sides
• 8:50
  as the prediction markets are predicting them right now.
• 8:54
  Um,
• 8:55
  we're gonna look at that and just.
• 8:57
  Make this sort of like,
• 8:58
  uh,
• 8:58
  if prediction markets are exactly right,
• 9:00
  and they probably won't be exactly right,
• 9:02
  I will say,
• 9:03
  when you're talking about 2 weeks out from any given
• 9:05
  data point,
• 9:06
  they are incredibly well calibrated.
• 9:08
  Millions of markets have been looked at.
• 9:10
  And if something it says it's a 20% chance to happen,
• 9:13
  happens about 20% of the time,
• 9:15
  20% of the time.
• 9:16
  So if you see a candidate that's at 20%,
• 9:18
  that doesn't mean they've lost.
• 9:19
  It just means that,
• 9:20
  uh,
• 9:20
  they will win about 20% of the time
• 9:23
  according to prediction markets,
• 9:24
  which have been proven incredibly accurate over long periods of time.
• 9:27
  You can always find mistakes.
• 9:28
  You can always find some that don't fit the bill,
• 9:30
  but generally speaking,
• 9:31
  they've done very,
• 9:32
  very well.
• 9:32
  So let's go through this right now.
• 9:34
  Let's start with Florida.
• 9:35
  Florida is,
• 9:35
  uh,
• 9:36
  kind of at the edge
• 9:37
  of the conversation of,
• 9:38
  uh,
• 9:39
  most,
• 9:39
  uh,
• 9:40
  Uh,
• 9:40
  of competitive,
• 9:42
  uh,
• 9:43
  Florida is,
• 9:43
  is leaning Republican for sure.
• 9:45
  Uh,
• 9:45
  so Florida will go to the Republican right now,
• 9:48
  that is Ashley Moody.
• 9:50
  And Moody is at,
• 9:52
  uh,
• 9:53
  let's see,
• 9:53
  90.
• 9:56
  90,
• 9:57
  90% chance to win.
• 9:59
  Ashley Moody.
• 10:00
  Uh,
• 10:00
  sorry,
• 10:00
  my,
• 10:00
  uh,
• 10:01
  my phone is acting up here as I'm doing this live.
• 10:03
  Uh,
• 10:04
  90% chance to win
• 10:06
  in,
• 10:07
  uh,
• 10:07
  Florida for Moody.
• 10:08
  So we'll drive it over to the right side and we'll reveal the top of this at the end,
• 10:11
  Adam,
• 10:11
  so don't,
• 10:12
  let's not go off of the screen.
• 10:13
  Uh,
• 10:13
  next up we will go with Minnesota.
• 10:16
  Minnesota is Peggy Flanagan going up against Michelle Tafoya.
• 10:19
  Been a competitive race and,
• 10:20
  and,
• 10:21
  and a race that I think Democrats are upset about
• 10:23
  it being
• 10:24
  competitive right now though,
• 10:26
  prediction markets don't see it as that close.
• 10:28
  They see it as a lean Democrat,
• 10:30
  an 88% chance for Peggy Flanagan
• 10:33
  to win that race,
• 10:34
  according to the Calci markets currently.
• 10:36
  Um,
• 10:37
  Alaska is up next.
• 10:38
  Alaska is,
• 10:40
  by the way,
• 10:40
  if you have,
• 10:41
  if you are a predictable
• 10:43
  premium member,
• 10:44
  you get access to every Senate race and
• 10:46
  how it matches up against prediction markets.
• 10:48
  The biggest gap
• 10:49
  in the entire,
• 10:50
  on the entire board is Alaska.
• 10:51
  The prediction markets are much more aggressive
• 10:54
  than the prediction model is.
• 10:56
  Um,
• 10:57
  the markets like Alaska
• 10:59
  quite a bit for the Democrats,
• 11:01
  and,
• 11:01
  uh,
• 11:01
  Mary Peltola,
• 11:03
  she is.
• 11:04
  Uh,
• 11:05
  coming in at 76% chance to win.
• 11:08
  So we'll drag that over to the Democratic side.
• 11:10
  Peltola at 76%.
• 11:13
  Up next is the state of South Carolina.
• 11:15
  We've mentioned that before,
• 11:17
  uh,
• 11:17
  with Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 11:19
  We don't know what she looks like.
• 11:20
  We have no,
• 11:21
  there are no known photographs
• 11:23
  of Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 11:25
  Uh,
• 11:26
  uh,
• 11:26
  but she has an 82% chance to win.
• 11:28
  So,
• 11:29
  uh,
• 11:29
  we're driving over to the Republican side.
• 11:31
  We'll drive these all just to the leanners for now,
• 11:32
  uh,
• 11:33
  Adam,
• 11:33
  as we go,
• 11:33
  as we go.
• 11:34
  OK,
• 11:34
  um,
• 11:35
  next up is the state of Mississippi.
• 11:37
  How is this a state that's not like decided?
• 11:40
  It's freaking Mississippi.
• 11:42
  But Mississippi,
• 11:42
  when it comes to prediction markets,
• 11:44
  they have,
• 11:45
  uh,
• 11:45
  Scott Colom,
• 11:46
  the Democrat,
• 11:47
  a chance to win,
• 11:48
  uh,
• 11:48
  uh,
• 11:48
  that is in double digits,
• 11:49
  which is a lot if you think about the state of Mississippi,
• 11:52
  but Sydney Hyde-Smith still the heavy favorite,
• 11:53
  89%
• 11:54
  will go over to the Republican side
• 11:57
  there.
• 11:58
  Then
• 11:58
  the next state we will go to is Kansas.
• 12:00
  We're getting into the real toss-up territory now.
• 12:03
  Kansas.
• 12:04
  Is Adam Hamilton versus Roger Marshall.
• 12:07
  Marshall,
• 12:07
  the Republican,
• 12:08
  still with a lead according to prediction markets,
• 12:10
  61% chance
• 12:11
  for Roger Marshall.
• 12:13
  We'll drag that over to the Republican side.
• 12:15
  Uh,
• 12:15
  and that is a race where the polling is not necessarily
• 12:19
  in line with the markets.
• 12:21
  Polling seems to be leaning in the very slightest bit
• 12:24
  towards Hamilton,
• 12:25
  though I believe Roger Marshall led the most recent poll,
• 12:27
  very,
• 12:27
  very close state.
• 12:29
  Certainly a toss-up at this point,
• 12:30
  but we're gonna drag it no matter what,
• 12:32
  uh,
• 12:32
  into the,
• 12:33
  uh,
• 12:33
  into one of the two categories.
• 12:35
  Next up,
• 12:35
  we will go with,
• 12:37
  let's go Texas.
• 12:39
  Texas up next.
• 12:40
  Uh,
• 12:40
  James Tallarico has been leading in the polls,
• 12:42
  although
• 12:43
  Paxton led a poll recently and has closed the gap from these
• 12:46
  4 and 6-point margins to more like 1 or 2-point margins.
• 12:50
  One of our kind of thesis statements on this program is to say,
• 12:52
  hey,
• 12:53
  you know,
• 12:53
  when you get closer to an election,
• 12:55
  What you generally see happening
• 12:58
  is people coming home.
• 13:00
  Um,
• 13:00
  and,
• 13:00
  uh,
• 13:01
  if you're a Republican voter,
• 13:02
  you maybe you're a little upset with Paxton,
• 13:04
  yeah,
• 13:04
  you get to that voting booth,
• 13:05
  you kind of say,
• 13:06
  you know what,
• 13:06
  I don't want a Democrat,
• 13:08
  uh,
• 13:08
  Senate,
• 13:09
  uh,
• 13:09
  so you might come home.
• 13:10
  Texas right now,
• 13:11
  however,
• 13:11
  still favored
• 13:12
  for Democrats,
• 13:14
  a 62% chance for James Tallarico to win that race,
• 13:17
  according to
• 13:18
  Calie right now.
• 13:19
  We'll drag that over to the Democratic side.
• 13:21
  Uh,
• 13:21
  a few more races to go here.
• 13:23
  Let's go to Ohio.
• 13:25
  Uh,
• 13:25
  Ohio is a,
• 13:26
  is a,
• 13:27
  is an interesting race.
• 13:28
  It is,
• 13:29
  uh,
• 13:29
  Sherrod Brown,
• 13:30
  former senator from the state of Ohio,
• 13:33
  going up against the current
• 13:34
  appointed senator,
• 13:36
  John Husted.
• 13:37
  He was appointed when JD Vance became vice president.
• 13:39
  Uh,
• 13:40
  and right now,
• 13:40
  prediction markets like Sherrod Brown to win the race,
• 13:43
  65% chance
• 13:45
  for Sherrod Brown.
• 13:45
  That'll go to the leading Democrat
• 13:47
  in this particular
• 13:49
  race in a special election in Ohio.
• 13:52
  Michigan,
• 13:52
  we know this one.
• 13:53
  Abdul El Sayed,
• 13:54
  big debate tomorrow night,
• 13:55
  by the way.
• 13:56
  El Sayed again going up against Mike Rogers.
• 13:59
  It was a really vicious debate last time.
• 14:01
  They're both got each other's throats.
• 14:02
  Uh,
• 14:03
  I don't know if you,
• 14:04
  uh,
• 14:04
  personally,
• 14:04
  not a huge fan of the style,
• 14:06
  um,
• 14:07
  of,
• 14:08
  of El Sayed,
• 14:08
  but,
• 14:08
  you know,
• 14:09
  I'm not a fan of his politics either,
• 14:10
  frankly.
• 14:11
  Um,
• 14:11
  so Michigan though is still leaning Democrats,
• 14:14
  68% chance for El Sayed to pull that one off.
• 14:17
  The polling's been very close there.
• 14:19
  We pulled that over to the Democratic side.
• 14:21
  Two more states to go,
• 14:22
  Maine,
• 14:23
  of course,
• 14:23
  Susan Collins versus,
• 14:25
  um,
• 14:26
  Jackson.
• 14:26
  Troy Jackson is there.
• 14:28
  This is one of the closest races in the entire Senate,
• 14:31
  and right now,
• 14:32
  63% chance
• 14:33
  for Troy Jackson to pull it off
• 14:36
  over Susan Collins.
• 14:37
  Jackson,
• 14:37
  who told Collins to shut up in the middle of the debate
• 14:40
  the other night.
• 14:42
  Which I guess is a positive in Maine.
• 14:43
  I don't,
• 14:44
  I,
• 14:44
  maybe,
• 14:45
  I don't think she was saying it.
• 14:46
  All she said was,
• 14:47
  I think someone was protesting in the crowd and I think I,
• 14:49
  she said,
• 14:49
  I think that's one of Tory Jackson's supporters.
• 14:51
  She,
• 14:51
  she goes,
• 14:52
  oh,
• 14:52
  shut up.
• 14:54
  He's quite a character.
• 14:55
  I don't think he's a very good candidate,
• 14:57
  but he is leading 63% chance,
• 14:59
  uh,
• 14:59
  for Troy Jackson
• 15:01
  in prediction markets.
• 15:02
  And that leaves us with,
• 15:03
  uh,
• 15:03
  that we've read that to the Democratic side,
• 15:04
  that leaves us with only Iowa.
• 15:06
  Iowa is the closest state by most measures
• 15:09
  when it comes to prediction markets.
• 15:10
  Polling is back and forth between Turk and Hinson.
• 15:13
  This is a race,
• 15:15
  another tool that we have built here at PredictableShow.com.
• 15:19
  Is,
• 15:20
  uh,
• 15:20
  the Republican freak out index,
• 15:23
  which kind of shows you which states you could see real problems
• 15:26
  and for Republicans,
• 15:27
  uh,
• 15:27
  and Iowa is up there near the top of the list with factors like fuel prices,
• 15:31
  uh,
• 15:32
  going up the most,
• 15:33
  diesel prices,
• 15:34
  um,
• 15:35
  uh,
• 15:35
  also tariffs,
• 15:36
  uh,
• 15:36
  affecting that area quite a bit.
• 15:38
  Uh,
• 15:38
  so Iowa goes,
• 15:40
  uh,
• 15:40
  in this particular race,
• 15:41
  however,
• 15:41
  still sticking
• 15:43
  with the Republicans,
• 15:44
  only a 58% chance for Henson to win there.
• 15:46
  Uh,
• 15:47
  that was one of my favorite races coming into this election.
• 15:49
  I really like that position quite a bit,
• 15:51
  and it is making me nervous.
• 15:53
  I will,
• 15:53
  I will be honest with you,
• 15:54
  it's making me a little nervous.
• 15:56
  It's the polling has been very,
• 15:57
  very close.
• 15:57
  So that's it.
• 15:58
  Let's reveal the top of this list.
• 15:59
  What is our count here in the Senate?
• 16:01
  da da dun dun dun.
• 16:03
  Ah,
• 16:04
  Democrats,
• 16:04
  52,
• 16:06
  Republicans,
• 16:07
  48.
• 16:08
  Holding up a little bit low,
• 16:10
  uh,
• 16:11
  for the Republicans in this particular race.
• 16:14
  This is the same count,
• 16:15
  I believe
• 16:16
  that the predic predictable midterm consensus,
• 16:19
  our election model showed last week,
• 16:22
  52-48,
• 16:23
  a slight.
• 16:24
  Lean to Democrats,
• 16:25
  although you have very close races.
• 16:27
  Republicans could easily win Texas,
• 16:30
  Maine,
• 16:30
  Michigan,
• 16:31
  Ohio,
• 16:32
  Alaska,
• 16:33
  Minnesota.
• 16:33
  I mean,
• 16:34
  the polling is showing it very close.
• 16:35
  I'd be pretty,
• 16:36
  uh,
• 16:36
  I'd be pretty surprised,
• 16:37
  frankly,
• 16:38
  if Republicans win in Minnesota.
• 16:40
  Um,
• 16:40
  you know,
• 16:40
  Michelle Tafoy is there,
• 16:41
  run a pretty good campaign.
• 16:42
  Peggy Flanagan dresses very oddly.
• 16:45
  Uh,
• 16:47
  Very strange dresser.
• 16:48
  You can bring us up,
• 16:48
  uh,
• 16:49
  back up to the window if you want.
• 16:50
  Um,
• 16:50
  but,
• 16:51
  uh,
• 16:51
  bottom line is,
• 16:52
  uh,
• 16:53
  It's a very close race.
• 16:55
  Very close,
• 16:56
  and it is 52-48 in that particular measure.
• 16:59
  Now,
• 16:59
  let me show you the polls,
• 17:00
  just so we can get a sense as to where these polls go,
• 17:02
  because
• 17:02
  one thing I have seen
• 17:04
  over the past couple of days,
• 17:05
  you can put me in a little window box if you want on some of these,
• 17:07
  uh,
• 17:08
  uh,
• 17:08
  Adam,
• 17:08
  uh,
• 17:09
  but
• 17:09
  they,
• 17:09
  they have this situation
• 17:12
  where,
• 17:13
  uh,
• 17:14
  you know,
• 17:14
  you have a really weird
• 17:16
  vibe
• 17:17
  going on.
• 17:18
  Because prediction marks,
• 17:19
  as I showed you with the Senate Fantasy League,
• 17:21
  the Democratic teams are rising to the top.
• 17:24
  Over and over and over again,
• 17:25
  the Democratic heavy teams are near the top of the list.
• 17:28
  Which would indicate movement in the past couple of weeks toward Democrats.
• 17:34
  But we're not really seeing that that much in the polls.
• 17:37
  Let me show you,
• 17:37
  click on Senate at the top here.
• 17:39
  We're doing Senate now and,
• 17:40
  and we'll come back maybe with the governors here in a little bit,
• 17:42
  but this is the Senate races.
• 17:43
  If you click on Senate,
• 17:44
  this will sort it by the Senate,
• 17:45
  and you see Peltola,
• 17:47
  um,
• 17:48
  uh,
• 17:48
  toward the top there.
• 17:49
  Peltola up by 2.
• 17:50
  That is
• 17:51
  probably a good poll
• 17:54
  for Republicans.
• 17:55
  Uh,
• 17:55
  we've seen wider margins in Alaska than just 2 points.
• 17:59
  Pretty close.
• 18:00
  Then you see Ricketts,
• 18:01
  uh,
• 18:02
  in Nebraska,
• 18:02
  just go looking a few down,
• 18:04
  plus 3.
• 18:05
  Now,
• 18:05
  that is a Republican sponsor,
• 18:06
  always important to understand who's taking the poll,
• 18:09
  but Ricketts leading by 3 points
• 18:12
  in that race,
• 18:12
  a pretty good poll for Republicans.
• 18:14
  Um,
• 18:15
  New Hampshire,
• 18:15
  Pappas plus,
• 18:17
  what is that,
• 18:17
  6
• 18:18
  and 7,
• 18:19
  depending on,
• 18:19
  uh,
• 18:19
  who,
• 18:20
  what the measure is there,
• 18:21
  but
• 18:21
  Um,
• 18:22
  that is a
• 18:24
  bit about average,
• 18:25
  maybe a little bit better for Republicans.
• 18:27
  Uh,
• 18:28
  Sununu,
• 18:28
  um,
• 18:28
  a little closer than it has been previous polls we've seen.
• 18:32
  Then you have Iowa,
• 18:33
  Hinson leading.
• 18:35
  She's led,
• 18:35
  led in some polls,
• 18:36
  but trailed in some polls.
• 18:38
  Uh,
• 18:39
  here she's up by 3 points over Josh Turrick
• 18:42
  in Iowa.
• 18:42
  Again,
• 18:43
  Republican sponsor,
• 18:44
  but a good result for Republicans.
• 18:45
  Um,
• 18:46
  generally speaking,
• 18:47
  Montana,
• 18:48
  uh,
• 18:48
  uh,
• 18:48
  is,
• 18:48
  uh,
• 18:49
  Almay up by 16.
• 18:51
  Good result for Republicans from Qantas,
• 18:53
  South Dakota,
• 18:54
  uh,
• 18:54
  Rounds up by 17.
• 18:56
  Again,
• 18:56
  this is a Rounds poll,
• 18:57
  you could take a grain of salt there,
• 18:59
  but that's,
• 19:00
  A pretty good result for Republicans.
• 19:01
  North Carolina,
• 19:02
  Cooper up by 11,
• 19:04
  about where we've expected it,
• 19:05
  maybe a little bit leaning toward Democrats there
• 19:07
  as far as where we've seen recent polling go.
• 19:10
  Alabama,
• 19:11
  Moore up by 21,
• 19:12
  should win easily there.
• 19:13
  Reed up by 23 for the Democrats in Rhode Island and blah,
• 19:16
  blah,
• 19:16
  blah blah blah.
• 19:16
  Markey way up,
• 19:17
  we know that.
• 19:18
  Um,
• 19:19
  Sherrod Brown up by 4,
• 19:20
  a smaller
• 19:21
  lead than we've seen recently.
• 19:23
  Henson again leading in the next poll,
• 19:25
  uh,
• 19:25
  Florida Republicans leading.
• 19:27
  Um,
• 19:28
  Ossoff up by 7 is about where that one's been.
• 19:30
  So,
• 19:30
  bottom line is,
• 19:32
  over the past couple of weeks,
• 19:33
  the polling.
• 19:36
  Has been relatively stable.
• 19:37
  If
• 19:38
  anything,
• 19:38
  I would say it's slightly leaned towards Republicans.
• 19:41
  It's moved towards Republicans,
• 19:43
  the slightest amount.
• 19:44
  Now,
• 19:44
  I wouldn't go crazy with that.
• 19:46
  I wouldn't say that,
• 19:46
  oh gosh,
• 19:47
  Republicans have tons of momentum.
• 19:48
  I wouldn't say that's true,
• 19:49
  but
• 19:50
  what I will say is I don't see the evidence
• 19:52
  for movement in prediction markets toward Democrats
• 19:55
  at the levels we've seen it.
• 19:57
  And what's interesting about that is I think there's a couple of explanations.
• 20:02
  And they're more internal
• 20:04
  prediction market,
• 20:06
  uh,
• 20:06
  explanations than they are,
• 20:08
  um,
• 20:10
  outside election
• 20:11
  type of um relationships.
• 20:14
  First of all,
• 20:15
  we are now starting to see money
• 20:18
  really flowing into these markets.
• 20:20
  We're 2 weeks away.
• 20:21
  We saw this constantly through the primary process where people,
• 20:24
  there would be tons of money in,
• 20:25
  you know,
• 20:26
  two states that had primaries.
• 20:27
  The money would uh resolve from that primary,
• 20:29
  they'd move to the next primary.
• 20:31
  We saw that over and over and over again to a point that during primary season,
• 20:34
  we started trying to get ahead of those primaries a little bit more
• 20:37
  to catch more value.
• 20:38
  Because,
• 20:39
  uh,
• 20:39
  you'd see these favorites,
• 20:41
  maybe they should have been 92%,
• 20:43
  91% favorites,
• 20:45
  constantly cracking in at 98% and 99%.
• 20:48
  Eliminating all the value from the heavy favorites.
• 20:51
  That's because money was flowing in from big time players,
• 20:54
  right?
• 20:54
  Moving the markets
• 20:55
  a few points
• 20:56
  and making those favorites a little bit more of a sure thing
• 20:59
  than they otherwise would be.
• 21:01
  I think that's starting to happen in these big election markets now.
• 21:05
  We're starting to see a point where I think I'm starting to see things,
• 21:08
  uh,
• 21:08
  people who are.
• 21:09
  You know,
• 21:10
  should be around 90%,
• 21:12
  92%
• 21:13
  showing up at 95%,
• 21:14
  96,
• 21:15
  97%.
• 21:16
  People who should be,
• 21:17
  uh,
• 21:17
  you know,
• 21:17
  I,
• 21:17
  I'll give you those,
• 21:18
  some of those races,
• 21:19
  those mid-level races for Democrats,
• 21:20
  the Peeltolas of the world,
• 21:22
  um,
• 21:23
  you know,
• 21:23
  Sherrod Browns of the world.
• 21:24
  Like Sherrod Brown's polling has not necessarily
• 21:26
  improved over the past couple of weeks.
• 21:28
  Yet his numbers on prediction markets are up considerably.
• 21:31
  I know that he's on my fantasy team.
• 21:32
  Um,
• 21:33
  uh,
• 21:34
  Peltola,
• 21:34
  same story.
• 21:35
  El Sayed,
• 21:36
  same story.
• 21:37
  Their polling hasn't gotten any better.
• 21:39
  There's no real external reason for these markets to be
• 21:43
  moving except that just money starting to settle in,
• 21:45
  in places where people believe the winner's going to be.
• 21:48
  We are getting a lot of internal polling as well.
• 21:50
  You're starting to see the rating agencies,
• 21:52
  if you will,
• 21:53
  the,
• 21:53
  uh,
• 21:54
  the sites,
• 21:54
  the Cook Politicals and the,
• 21:56
  the crystal the uh Sabato's crystal ball.
• 21:59
  They're starting to move more races towards Democrats.
• 22:02
  That's kind of part of it too.
• 22:03
  Um,
• 22:03
  you're seeing these prediction models start to move this as well,
• 22:06
  and that's another big part of this.
• 22:09
  We have the predictable midterm consensus.
• 22:11
  It is a kind of a,
• 22:12
  a consensus view of
• 22:14
  all sorts of different measures from election models to prediction or to,
• 22:18
  uh,
• 22:18
  not,
• 22:18
  not prediction models,
• 22:19
  uh,
• 22:19
  prediction data.
• 22:20
  Uh,
• 22:21
  we left that out intentionally so you can look at
• 22:23
  the,
• 22:23
  the other data against that.
• 22:25
  Um,
• 22:25
  but you've got,
• 22:26
  uh,
• 22:26
  election modeling,
• 22:27
  you've got,
• 22:27
  uh,
• 22:27
  uh,
• 22:28
  polling averages,
• 22:30
  you've got fundamentals and,
• 22:31
  and history and all the things,
• 22:33
  fundraising
• 22:34
  that make up
• 22:35
  the picture of any given election.
• 22:37
  And we put those all together in one place.
• 22:40
  In there are prediction models,
• 22:42
  and these prediction modelers,
• 22:44
  really smart people who crunch this data for a living.
• 22:47
  Uh,
• 22:47
  there's a wide gap between them,
• 22:49
  however,
• 22:50
  some people say the House is a 99% chance for Democrats,
• 22:53
  some people say it's 70%.
• 22:55
  Some people say it's 65%.
• 22:56
  And that's pretty low.
• 22:57
  But generally speaking,
• 22:58
  there's some people in the 70s all the way up to 99%.
• 23:02
  We take that,
• 23:03
  put it all together,
• 23:03
  so you get one set number.
• 23:05
  But one of the things that's happening with these prediction markets,
• 23:07
  um,
• 23:07
  excuse me,
• 23:08
  the,
• 23:08
  uh,
• 23:09
  election models right now.
• 23:10
  Is
• 23:12
  They,
• 23:13
  they all take into account.
• 23:15
  History,
• 23:17
  fundamentals.
• 23:19
  Um,
• 23:19
  everything
• 23:20
  other than polling,
• 23:22
  a bunch of different measures that and,
• 23:24
  and,
• 23:24
  and then also the polls.
• 23:25
  So it takes both of those things out.
• 23:27
  It's not just a polling average,
• 23:28
  they're putting a lot more into it.
• 23:30
  And
• 23:30
  what's fascinating about that
• 23:33
  is that
• 23:34
  that
• 23:34
  uh percentage,
• 23:36
  the split,
• 23:36
  when you're very,
• 23:37
  very early before there's any polling at all,
• 23:39
  it's all fundamentals,
• 23:40
  right?
• 23:41
  As more polling comes in,
• 23:42
  it starts to move.
• 23:43
  The balance of an election model moves
• 23:46
  from focusing on fundamentals when you're far away from an election,
• 23:49
  to focusing on polling more
• 23:52
  as you get closer,
• 23:52
  because the idea is the polling's more accurate
• 23:54
  because the election's right around the corner.
• 23:57
  That is happening right now
• 23:58
  in these election models where
• 24:01
  over time,
• 24:01
  polling is a much bigger factor
• 24:03
  than what you believe about the states.
• 24:05
  If you go back a couple of months,
• 24:07
  what you see is you might see the same polling,
• 24:09
  but people are like,
• 24:10
  well,
• 24:11
  no one ever wins in Kansas as a Democrat,
• 24:12
  so,
• 24:13
  you know,
• 24:14
  Republicans are heavily favored.
• 24:15
  Even though the polling hasn't moved that much in Kansas,
• 24:18
  what we are seeing now is
• 24:21
  the election models moving toward.
• 24:23
  Uh,
• 24:24
  Democrats.
• 24:24
  And if you,
• 24:24
  if you say,
• 24:25
  well,
• 24:25
  well,
• 24:25
  wait a minute,
• 24:27
  so what?
• 24:28
  Why?
• 24:28
  Cause it's moving towards that polling.
• 24:30
  And
• 24:31
  the reason that is,
• 24:32
  uh,
• 24:33
  important to you if you're on these prediction markets
• 24:36
  is
• 24:37
  those are very influential to the markets.
• 24:40
  The markets are looking to synthesize data.
• 24:42
  Prediction markets are what you're trying to do.
• 24:45
  What
• 24:45
  the data is doing for you
• 24:48
  is synthesizing everything into one place,
• 24:50
  into one number,
• 24:51
  so you can understand it better.
• 24:52
  That's why these things are so great,
• 24:53
  to help you understand
• 24:55
  what's going on in the world,
• 24:56
  because they're taking all available information and synthesizing,
• 24:58
  crystallizing it
• 24:59
  into one
• 25:01
  available number that everybody can access,
• 25:02
  by the way,
• 25:03
  for free.
• 25:04
  You get this information for free from Calshi.
• 25:07
  Um,
• 25:08
  and that is a great tool for you to understand the world better,
• 25:11
  but that is part of the reason why these markets are moving toward
• 25:14
  Democrats right now and why if you're in the Senate Fantasy League,
• 25:17
  and you got a bunch of Democrats,
• 25:18
  and you're at them and you're on your high horse.
• 25:23
  That's what he's seeing right now.
• 25:25
  It is partially because people believe the Democratic year is here,
• 25:28
  right?
• 25:28
  And that's probably true at some level.
• 25:30
  It is partially because the polls are pretty good for Democrats,
• 25:33
  but they're not moving necessarily toward them.
• 25:36
  And it's partially because a bunch of money
• 25:38
  is coming into these markets right now,
• 25:40
  looking for favorites,
• 25:41
  looking to take a couple,
• 25:43
  you know,
• 25:43
  10,
• 25:43
  12%
• 25:44
  on a two-week uh timeline.
• 25:47
  And then also,
• 25:48
  you have the situation where these
• 25:50
  election modelers
• 25:51
  are,
• 25:51
  are starting to emphasize just straight polling,
• 25:55
  cause you look at a place like Kansas,
• 25:56
  where,
• 25:56
  you know,
• 25:57
  Hamilton might lead by 1 or 2 points,
• 25:59
  and you say,
• 25:59
  well,
• 25:59
  he's leading the polling,
• 26:00
  so he should be ahead.
• 26:01
  Prediction markets and also election models take into account a lot more than that,
• 26:06
  and they are moving things
• 26:08
  toward those directions and holding back from
• 26:10
  like giving Hamilton a lead in that race
• 26:12
  because they're saying,
• 26:13
  well,
• 26:13
  wait a minute,
• 26:14
  Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
• 26:18
  Should we be taking this seriously?
• 26:21
  That's the game.
• 26:22
  That's why I love these things.
• 26:23
  It's figuring all of that out,
• 26:25
  understanding all that data,
• 26:26
  bringing it down in your own mind and saying,
• 26:27
  well,
• 26:27
  wait a minute,
• 26:28
  where is the weakness in this market?
• 26:30
  I think they're wrong in this state,
• 26:31
  in this state,
• 26:32
  in this state.
• 26:32
  I think they're right here,
• 26:33
  here and here.
• 26:35
  Going in there,
• 26:36
  finding the value
• 26:37
  and profiting a little bit off of,
• 26:38
  uh,
• 26:39
  of,
• 26:39
  of these politicians.
• 26:40
  God knows they've been,
• 26:41
  you know,
• 26:41
  profiting off of you
• 26:43
  your entire life.
• 26:44
  It's about time you turn the tables a little bit on them,
• 26:46
  don't you think?
• 26:47
  All these tools,
• 26:48
  by the way,
• 26:48
  are available
• 26:49
  for free
• 26:50
  at predictableshow.com.
• 26:52
  Become a free subscriber.
• 26:54
  Just get on,
• 26:55
  get on,
• 26:55
  get on board.
• 26:55
  It's a great community.
• 26:57
  You get the free chat,
• 26:58
  you get the free emails,
• 27:00
  you get the,
• 27:00
  uh,
• 27:00
  all these tools that I'm talking about at predictableShow.com.
• 27:03
  And then if you wanna upgrade and get all the individual Senate races,
• 27:06
  you can do that well,
• 27:07
  as well,
• 27:07
  plus a free stream of the show.
• 27:09
  I answer your questions all the time,
• 27:11
  all sorts of cool stuff.
• 27:12
  If you wanna be a premium subscriber.
• 27:13
  I would highly
• 27:15
  Highly encourage that.
• 27:16
  That would be at predictableShow.com.
• 27:19
  Uh,
• 27:19
  just join up.
• 27:19
  You can do it by the month,
• 27:20
  you can do it by the year,
• 27:21
  whatever you want.
• 27:22
  And Senate Fantasy.com is free.
• 27:25
  There's thousands of dollars on the line.
• 27:26
  You can win $2500 for winning this thing.
• 27:28
  And $2500 will go a long way to fund your prediction,
• 27:31
  uh,
• 27:32
  market account
• 27:33
  and grow that even bigger on the show.
• 27:35
  Uh,
• 27:35
  you can also,
• 27:36
  um,
• 27:37
  you,
• 27:37
  you can donate it to some worthy charity,
• 27:39
  um,
• 27:40
  or you can donate it to,
• 27:41
  um,
• 27:41
  your spouse who wants something nice for,
• 27:43
  for Christmas.
• 27:44
  Whatever you wanna do.
• 27:45
  You can also just keep it and pocket it.
• 27:47
  Frankly,
• 27:48
  you can do whatever you want with the money,
• 27:49
  but you can win it at Senatefantassy.com.
• 27:51
  All right,
• 27:51
  gotta take a break back in a second with more.
• 28:08
  Spent a lot of time on the Senate,
• 28:09
  and that's,
• 28:10
  you know,
• 28:10
  we,
• 28:10
  it's that kind of
• 28:11
  marquee thing.
• 28:13
  It's with prediction markets though,
• 28:14
  it's diff different,
• 28:15
  right?
• 28:15
  Like it's not just about what is the biggest news topic
• 28:18
  or what's the thing that you're looking for.
• 28:20
  Also,
• 28:21
  there's a lot of races that are under the radar where you can
• 28:23
  make more profit and so we wanna focus on those as well.
• 28:26
  We got a lot to,
• 28:27
  we got a lot on our plate here at predictable with Stu.
• 28:29
  Uh,
• 28:29
  that's why we also have predictableShow.com to get into a lot of that extra stuff,
• 28:33
  but
• 28:33
  I wanted to highlight something,
• 28:34
  uh,
• 28:34
  this is from Decision desk,
• 28:36
  uh,
• 28:36
  they did a really good job with election data which states
• 28:39
  will split tickets for Senate and governor,
• 28:41
  and this is an interesting thing because.
• 28:43
  I am depending on this happening
• 28:46
  multiple times.
• 28:46
  I think it will,
• 28:47
  and it's,
• 28:47
  what's weird about that is it almost never occurs anymore.
• 28:51
  What this means,
• 28:51
  of course,
• 28:51
  is when you're talking about a Senate and a governor,
• 28:53
  are they from the same party or not?
• 28:54
  Do you have one like a Democratic senator and a Republican governor or vice versa?
• 28:58
  It's very,
• 28:59
  very rare as we've grown into a more partisan era,
• 29:01
  as people are more focused on politics,
• 29:04
  there's just a lot less
• 29:06
  of that type of activity going on
• 29:09
  where you have those splits.
• 29:11
  And just to show you a quick,
• 29:12
  uh,
• 29:12
  graph,
• 29:13
  this is from,
• 29:13
  uh,
• 29:14
  DDHQ.
• 29:15
  Um,
• 29:15
  you'll notice the splits,
• 29:17
  split tickets going back to 1990,
• 29:19
  you see,
• 29:19
  you see it more often.
• 29:20
  It's,
• 29:21
  it was never super common,
• 29:22
  at least in recent history,
• 29:23
  but there used to be 34,
• 29:25
  5% of the vote
• 29:26
  where you'd see a little bit of a split.
• 29:28
  Now,
• 29:29
  the projections here look like it could be the smallest gap,
• 29:31
  at least since 2014.
• 29:33
  Uh,
• 29:34
  on the record,
• 29:35
  and
• 29:35
  so you,
• 29:36
  you,
• 29:36
  what you're expecting here is people to vote all Republican or all Democrat,
• 29:40
  not splitting that ticket
• 29:41
  with one or the other.
• 29:42
  Now,
• 29:43
  there are several races where there's a real possibility of a split ticket.
• 29:47
  Here's,
• 29:47
  uh,
• 29:47
  the,
• 29:48
  the breakdown.
• 29:49
  The same party clearly favored in 18 of the 25 states,
• 29:53
  um,
• 29:54
  that are doing both races.
• 29:56
  Uh,
• 29:56
  and this is what this kind of looks like.
• 29:59
  You see a gap,
• 30:00
  uh,
• 30:01
  between,
• 30:01
  when you see those long gaps,
• 30:02
  and I'll explain this for those on podcasts,
• 30:04
  the,
• 30:04
  the wide gaps between the two dots on this chart
• 30:07
  indicates a most likely,
• 30:09
  uh,
• 30:10
  situation to split.
• 30:11
  New Hampshire is the,
• 30:12
  by far the biggest one.
• 30:14
  We have a heavily favored Republican Governor,
• 30:16
  Kelly Ayotte.
• 30:17
  And a heavily favored Democratic senator in Chris Pappas over John Sununu.
• 30:22
  Uh,
• 30:23
  you know,
• 30:23
  that might not happen.
• 30:24
  Uh,
• 30:25
  either one of those could potentially fail,
• 30:26
  but that's the biggest split,
• 30:27
  the most likely split ticket that we have.
• 30:30
  Georgia,
• 30:31
  uh,
• 30:31
  likely as well,
• 30:32
  where you have,
• 30:33
  um,
• 30:33
  uh,
• 30:33
  Ossoff and Jackson.
• 30:35
  Uh,
• 30:35
  the,
• 30:35
  the favorites in those races,
• 30:37
  um,
• 30:38
  also have a heavy favorite,
• 30:39
  really,
• 30:40
  uh,
• 30:40
  you know,
• 30:40
  uh,
• 30:41
  uh,
• 30:42
  you know,
• 30:42
  a fifty-fifty race basically for governor there.
• 30:44
  Maine,
• 30:45
  you have a heavy favorite in the governor's race,
• 30:48
  a fifty-fifty race in the Senate.
• 30:50
  Uh,
• 30:50
  Iowa,
• 30:51
  you have a,
• 30:52
  uh,
• 30:52
  a Democratic favorite in the governor's race,
• 30:55
  and a fifty-fifty race in the Senate.
• 30:58
  Um,
• 30:59
  Alaska,
• 30:59
  pretty,
• 31:00
  they're pretty close to split both ways,
• 31:02
  could really go either way.
• 31:03
  Both races are very close there.
• 31:05
  Uh,
• 31:05
  Ohio is another one,
• 31:06
  and then Texas,
• 31:07
  uh,
• 31:08
  you have,
• 31:08
  uh,
• 31:08
  Abbott is a,
• 31:09
  uh,
• 31:09
  moderate favorite,
• 31:10
  72% favorite,
• 31:12
  um,
• 31:12
  where,
• 31:13
  uh,
• 31:13
  the underdog is,
• 31:14
  uh,
• 31:15
  Paxton.
• 31:16
  And then in,
• 31:17
  uh,
• 31:17
  in Ohio is another interesting 1,
• 31:19
  50%,
• 31:20
  uh,
• 31:21
  to 40%.
• 31:22
  Ramaswamy is an underdog.
• 31:24
  You got a,
• 31:24
  a closer race,
• 31:25
  uh,
• 31:25
  in,
• 31:26
  according to DDHQ when it comes to,
• 31:28
  uh,
• 31:28
  Sherrod Brown.
• 31:30
  Um,
• 31:30
  so,
• 31:30
  uh,
• 31:31
  that's the situation for those split tickets.
• 31:33
  One more quick,
• 31:34
  interesting,
• 31:34
  uh,
• 31:34
  chart they had on there.
• 31:36
  If you
• 31:36
  only knew the outcome of one race,
• 31:38
  what is the likelihood of the Democrats winning the Senate?
• 31:40
  Uh,
• 31:40
  this is just a dumb exercise that I think is fun to look at.
• 31:43
  But
• 31:44
  if,
• 31:44
  if,
• 31:44
  like,
• 31:44
  for example,
• 31:44
  if the Democrats win South Carolina,
• 31:46
  they have an 88% chance to win the Senate knowing no other results.
• 31:49
  Kansas is their next best,
• 31:51
  86%.
• 31:52
  Um,
• 31:53
  if they win Iowa,
• 31:53
  they've got an 81% chance of winning the Senate.
• 31:56
  If they win just Ohio,
• 31:57
  it's the only race we know,
• 31:58
  79% chance to win,
• 32:00
  and it goes on down from there.
• 32:01
  Kind of an interesting look at the Senate percentages.
• 32:04
  Um,
• 32:04
  let me look at the,
• 32:05
  uh,
• 32:05
  Calci
• 32:06
  map here.
• 32:07
  This is for the governors.
• 32:07
  I wanna go through some of these because I think,
• 32:09
  you know,
• 32:09
  we have spent more time on the Senate.
• 32:11
  Uh,
• 32:12
  it's kind of the marquee thing plus you have control of the Senate,
• 32:14
  which is at charge.
• 32:15
  It doesn't really matter necessarily.
• 32:16
  There's no voting block
• 32:18
  of governors,
• 32:19
  but it is important,
• 32:20
  more important to you in your home state.
• 32:22
  If you're thinking about,
• 32:23
  oh gosh,
• 32:23
  well,
• 32:24
  um,
• 32:24
  who am I really hoping for in my home state to be in the party that I want,
• 32:28
  you want the governor.
• 32:29
  The governor is more important to your day to day life
• 32:32
  than a senator is.
• 32:33
  A senator is one of 100 votes.
• 32:35
  Still very,
• 32:35
  very important,
• 32:37
  but not as important to your everyday life,
• 32:39
  in my opinion,
• 32:40
  at least.
• 32:40
  Um,
• 32:40
  this is what that looks like.
• 32:42
  Let's go through some of the races here.
• 32:43
  There's a bunch of solid races we don't have to touch on.
• 32:46
  Uh,
• 32:46
  that are,
• 32:47
  you know,
• 32:48
  anywhere from 89% on up.
• 32:50
  The closest one for the Republicans,
• 32:52
  if you're looking for a solid state is Nebraska,
• 32:54
  an 89% chance for,
• 32:56
  uh,
• 32:57
  Jim Pille to win there.
• 32:59
  Uh,
• 32:59
  nothing else really even remotely close to talk about.
• 33:02
  On the solid side for,
• 33:04
  um,
• 33:05
  Democrats,
• 33:05
  you have races like Colorado,
• 33:07
  Delaware,
• 33:07
  Georgia,
• 33:08
  Illinois,
• 33:08
  Massachusetts,
• 33:09
  nothing really clear.
• 33:10
  They do have,
• 33:10
  um,
• 33:11
  uh,
• 33:11
  96% chance for Roy Cooper now to win.
• 33:14
  Um,
• 33:14
  which is,
• 33:15
  uh,
• 33:15
  uh,
• 33:16
  oh,
• 33:17
  wait,
• 33:17
  wait,
• 33:17
  a minute,
• 33:17
  let me change it back.
• 33:18
  Sorry about that,
• 33:19
  I clicked on the wrong button.
• 33:20
  Oops,
• 33:21
  sorry about that.
• 33:21
  Let me go back,
• 33:22
  uh,
• 33:22
  here we go.
• 33:23
  Um,
• 33:24
  OK,
• 33:24
  so over on this,
• 33:27
  sorry about this.
• 33:27
  This is what live television is like,
• 33:29
  guys,
• 33:30
  people clicking around on phones and websites.
• 33:32
  Um,
• 33:32
  that's how it's always been.
• 33:33
  Katie Hobbs is in the solid Democratic category.
• 33:36
  That was one I know Republicans had high hopes for,
• 33:38
  uh,
• 33:39
  California,
• 33:39
  Becerra,
• 33:40
  uh,
• 33:40
  Colorado,
• 33:41
  Connecticut,
• 33:41
  Hawaii.
• 33:42
  Yeah,
• 33:42
  you're gonna be surprised to hear,
• 33:44
  uh,
• 33:44
  Josh Green's gonna win in Hawaii,
• 33:46
  Illinois,
• 33:46
  Massachusetts.
• 33:47
  Those are,
• 33:47
  uh,
• 33:48
  uh,
• 33:48
  Maine is another one.
• 33:49
  Michigan is a,
• 33:50
  uh,
• 33:51
  probably the closest race
• 33:52
  over here.
• 33:53
  Still a 92% chance for Benson to beat James,
• 33:57
  uh,
• 33:57
  in,
• 33:58
  uh,
• 33:58
  in,
• 33:59
  um,
• 34:00
  Michigan,
• 34:00
  according.
• 34:01
  To prediction markets.
• 34:03
  So let's go to the closer races here.
• 34:05
  Uh,
• 34:05
  let's start with likely Democrat.
• 34:06
  You've got
• 34:07
  Alaska,
• 34:08
  uh,
• 34:08
  is an 80% Democratic state.
• 34:10
  Iowa,
• 34:11
  86% Democratic state.
• 34:13
  Again,
• 34:13
  it's kind of a shocking development
• 34:15
  when you talk about,
• 34:16
  uh,
• 34:16
  um,
• 34:16
  Iowa.
• 34:17
  Oregon is probably the most perplexing race in the union
• 34:22
  right now.
• 34:22
  The polling is very,
• 34:23
  very close.
• 34:24
  People don't really like Tina Kodak in Oregon.
• 34:27
  It's a Democratic year in a Democratic state.
• 34:29
  But Drazen really has a chance in that race.
• 34:32
  It's,
• 34:32
  I have a Koech position that's relatively large.
• 34:35
  I'm nervous about it.
• 34:36
  I don't know that
• 34:37
  I've trimmed it a little bit in the past week.
• 34:39
  I'm nervous about that position,
• 34:40
  but it is hanging out there.
• 34:42
  And Wisconsin's another interesting one.
• 34:43
  David Crowley at 80% to win.
• 34:45
  I'm terrified of any poll
• 34:47
  in Wisconsin in particular.
• 34:49
  The polling's been notoriously horrible there,
• 34:52
  uh,
• 34:52
  but does have Crowley with a slight lead over Tom Tiffany.
• 34:55
  Prediction markets think it's about an 80/20
• 34:57
  race.
• 34:58
  On the Republican likely side here,
• 35:01
  you've got Florida.
• 35:02
  David Jolly is the Democrat,
• 35:03
  Byron Donald's the Republican.
• 35:05
  Donald's up to about 80%.
• 35:07
  I still like that race and like the value there
• 35:10
  for Donald's.
• 35:11
  Florida is one of those races.
• 35:12
  I think Republicans
• 35:13
  are going to draw a line around Florida and
• 35:15
  hold most of the stuff that they have there.
• 35:17
  We will see.
• 35:18
  Kansas,
• 35:19
  uh,
• 35:19
  has Ty Masterson at 77% favor,
• 35:21
  the Republican
• 35:23
  ahead in Kansas.
• 35:24
  Oklahoma,
• 35:24
  Mike Maizey
• 35:25
  at 91%.
• 35:27
  And,
• 35:28
  uh,
• 35:28
  Greg Abbott in my own state here in Texas,
• 35:30
  73% favorite over Gina Hinahoza,
• 35:33
  uh,
• 35:34
  who's running a lot of ads now.
• 35:35
  Now it's gotten to the point where every single ad is one of these candidates
• 35:38
  in Texas.
• 35:39
  They're spending hundreds of millions of dollars.
• 35:41
  It's amazing to watch
• 35:43
  in action.
• 35:44
  They do,
• 35:45
  Democrats do have a chance to win.
• 35:46
  I still think Abbott is the favorite
• 35:48
  there.
• 35:49
  Uh,
• 35:49
  some lean Republican races right now,
• 35:51
  uh,
• 35:52
  Vermont is an interesting one.
• 35:53
  And if you wanna go to the fringes of the blue wave,
• 35:56
  this is an interesting one to investigate.
• 35:58
  Phil Scott has been very,
• 35:59
  very,
• 35:59
  uh,
• 36:00
  popular.
• 36:00
  He is a Republican,
• 36:01
  a Republican governor of Vermont,
• 36:03
  of all places,
• 36:04
  the Bernie Sanders state.
• 36:06
  But
• 36:07
  Scott has been a very popular moderate Republican governor.
• 36:11
  Uh,
• 36:11
  he's done by all accounts,
• 36:12
  a very good job there for the state,
• 36:14
  and Vermont voters tend to like him.
• 36:16
  Amanda Janou is much more like Bernie Sanders.
• 36:19
  Basically,
• 36:20
  she was endorsed by Sanders.
• 36:22
  The question is,
• 36:23
  in this Democratic year,
• 36:24
  Vermont,
• 36:24
  who's already very open to a Bernie Sanders type candidate,
• 36:27
  do they surprise us
• 36:29
  and knock Phil Scott out?
• 36:30
  I think there's a chance of it.
• 36:32
  She's at 24% right now.
• 36:34
  Um,
• 36:35
  you also have,
• 36:36
  over on the lean Democratic side,
• 36:39
  there is Amy Acton going up against,
• 36:41
  uh,
• 36:42
  Vivek Ramaswamy.
• 36:43
  That is an interesting race,
• 36:45
  uh,
• 36:46
  likely because,
• 36:47
  uh,
• 36:47
  of the back and forth between the candidates there.
• 36:49
  I want to get into that maybe here in a second if I have time.
• 36:52
  Yeah,
• 36:52
  I'm pretty long on this break.
• 36:53
  We might have to hold that till tomorrow.
• 36:55
  Uh,
• 36:55
  toss-off,
• 36:55
  you got Georgia,
• 36:57
  which is Keisha Lance Bottoms against Rick Jackson.
• 37:00
  That's a 50/50 race basically exactly.
• 37:02
  Um,
• 37:03
  and then Nevada is a 58% Democratic favor,
• 37:06
  Aaron Ford over Joe Lombardo.
• 37:08
  That one could go either way for sure.
• 37:11
  Very,
• 37:11
  very close race
• 37:12
  there.
• 37:12
  I want to focus on Ohio for one more second there.
• 37:15
  Um,
• 37:15
  Ohio is Vivek Ramaswamy against Amy Acton.
• 37:17
  Acton was,
• 37:18
  uh,
• 37:19
  you know,
• 37:19
  had some issues.
• 37:20
  She doesn't seem to be a great candidate.
• 37:22
  Um,
• 37:22
  Vivek Ramaswamy,
• 37:23
  not very popular,
• 37:24
  not very well liked for whatever reason in Ohio.
• 37:26
  It's a very strange race.
• 37:27
  Uh,
• 37:28
  it seems like if Ohio had the choice,
• 37:29
  they'd pick,
• 37:30
  uh,
• 37:30
  neither,
• 37:31
  none of the above would probably be their pick.
• 37:33
  Um,
• 37:34
  the polling has been
• 37:35
  relatively close here,
• 37:36
  3 or 4 points
• 37:37
  favoring,
• 37:38
  um,
• 37:38
  Acton in the most recent polls.
• 37:40
  Ramaswamy had one pretty close recently.
• 37:43
  They pulled out all the stops there though,
• 37:45
  I will say,
• 37:45
  maybe tomorrow we should feature the new ad by Ramaswamy featuring,
• 37:49
  I kid you not.
• 37:51
  Amy Acton's mom.
• 37:53
  In an ad for her opponent,
• 37:56
  Vivek Ramaswamy.
• 37:57
  We'll get into that tomorrow and,
• 37:58
  uh,
• 37:59
  so much more.
• 37:59
  I wanna take a break,
• 38:00
  come back on the other side.
• 38:00
  It's NBA kickoff,
• 38:02
  uh,
• 38:02
  tip-off tonight.
• 38:03
  They wouldn't really kick off in the NBA,
• 38:05
  uh,
• 38:05
  tip-off NBA tonight.
• 38:07
  I wanna tell you a little bit about that with a
• 38:08
  couple of interesting positions we can look at in prediction markets there
• 38:11
  and so much more to come.
• 38:24
  LeBron James on his own new team.
• 38:26
  He's gonna make a regular season debut as a Philadelphia seventy-Sixer.
• 38:31
  Yes,
• 38:31
  against the New York Knicks.
• 38:33
  Uh,
• 38:33
  that's tonight.
• 38:34
  NBA season kicks off.
• 38:37
  Uh,
• 38:37
  there is a,
• 38:38
  uh,
• 38:38
  more of course,
• 38:38
  there's markets on all of these games.
• 38:40
  That's not typically how we use prediction markets here.
• 38:43
  A lot of people,
• 38:43
  uh,
• 38:43
  do use them,
• 38:44
  uh,
• 38:44
  for that purpose.
• 38:45
  Um,
• 38:46
  we're kind of look more longer term.
• 38:47
  Uh,
• 38:48
  I do like sports,
• 38:49
  um,
• 38:50
  uh,
• 38:50
  and,
• 38:50
  uh,
• 38:51
  I do like sports markets.
• 38:52
  We find a lot of value in them and have done very,
• 38:54
  very well in sports markets,
• 38:55
  including
• 38:56
  a big position that I won earlier this year of whether LeBron would retire or not.
• 38:59
  Give me a break.
• 39:00
  He's not retiring without a,
• 39:01
  uh,
• 39:02
  everybody focusing on him for an entire year of farewell.
• 39:05
  You're not gonna just announce it on a Tuesday.
• 39:07
  Anyway,
• 39:08
  um,
• 39:08
  this is what the market for that game looks like.
• 39:10
  Sixers are,
• 39:11
  you know,
• 39:11
  the big buzz team.
• 39:13
  Our,
• 39:13
  our underdogs,
• 39:14
  of course,
• 39:14
  the defending champs,
• 39:16
  uh,
• 39:16
  39% chance for the Sixers to win,
• 39:18
  uh,
• 39:18
  61% for the Knicks.
• 39:21
  Um,
• 39:21
  I wanna,
• 39:22
  though,
• 39:22
  I like looking at the over-unders for the year,
• 39:24
  uh,
• 39:24
  when it comes to win totals,
• 39:26
  and I like that because you can find value there.
• 39:29
  And the way that prediction markets do this is different than if you've ever seen,
• 39:32
  uh,
• 39:32
  something kind of similar,
• 39:34
  uh,
• 39:34
  on a,
• 39:35
  uh,
• 39:35
  you know,
• 39:35
  uh,
• 39:36
  a more traditional sports gambling site.
• 39:38
  Um,
• 39:39
  they give you all sorts of different options here.
• 39:41
  Um,
• 39:41
  let me show you what this looks like if you are interested in this.
• 39:44
  Maybe we should do an,
• 39:44
  uh,
• 39:45
  a draft.
• 39:45
  We did a draft for over-under for NFL wins.
• 39:48
  Um,
• 39:48
  uh,
• 39:48
  you guys seem to like that show.
• 39:50
  Maybe we'll do one for the NBA as well.
• 39:51
  But,
• 39:52
  uh,
• 39:52
  if you look here,
• 39:53
  you're like the Wizards are the,
• 39:54
  why would the Wizards be the number one on this?
• 39:56
  Come on,
• 39:56
  Calhi,
• 39:57
  what are you,
• 39:57
  you're putting the Wizards up there?
• 39:59
  Uh,
• 39:59
  the Wizards are 30,
• 40:00
  like,
• 40:01
  will they win 35 games or more?
• 40:02
  Uh,
• 40:02
  55% chance of that.
• 40:05
  I'm,
• 40:05
  I'm thinking under on these,
• 40:07
  uh,
• 40:07
  40 wins at a 36% chance of that.
• 40:10
  The Sixers,
• 40:12
  kind of that buzzy team,
• 40:13
  50 wins,
• 40:13
  uh,
• 40:13
  48% chance of 50 plus wins.
• 40:15
  I mean,
• 40:16
  if you think about that team,
• 40:17
  they added LeBron,
• 40:18
  but again,
• 40:18
  they already had a lot of talent.
• 40:20
  You add,
• 40:21
  uh,
• 40:21
  uh,
• 40:22
  Jalen Brown.
• 40:23
  Um,
• 40:24
  you have Edgecombe,
• 40:25
  you have Maxie.
• 40:26
  I mean,
• 40:26
  it is,
• 40:27
  uh,
• 40:27
  of course,
• 40:27
  in beat if he plays,
• 40:29
  it's a heck of,
• 40:30
  they really got a lot,
• 40:30
  they got a great team,
• 40:31
  um,
• 40:32
  if
• 40:32
  people are healthy,
• 40:33
  but they are depending a lot
• 40:35
  on older players.
• 40:36
  One of the things we went against in the NFL was against the Rams having this,
• 40:40
  uh,
• 40:40
  dream team season,
• 40:41
  and so far that's paid off very,
• 40:42
  very well,
• 40:43
  uh,
• 40:44
  for,
• 40:44
  uh,
• 40:45
  for us in the prediction markets
• 40:47
  because,
• 40:48
  you know,
• 40:48
  those teams don't usually do that well,
• 40:50
  and especially when you're depending.
• 40:51
  On a team
• 40:53
  to drag a couple of,
• 40:55
  uh,
• 40:56
  older players,
• 40:56
  like,
• 40:56
  you know,
• 40:56
  LeBron James is in his 40s,
• 40:58
  and Joel Embiid's body is 80.
• 41:01
  He's,
• 41:02
  it is,
• 41:02
  uh,
• 41:02
  as fragile as a,
• 41:03
  uh,
• 41:04
  Biscoff cookie.
• 41:05
  Uh,
• 41:05
  so,
• 41:06
  and if you've ever been on a,
• 41:07
  a flight where they have Biscovoff cookies as the treat,
• 41:09
  you know,
• 41:10
  the second you take a bite into one of those,
• 41:12
  everything crumbles
• 41:13
  and you're covered in dust,
• 41:15
  Biscoff cookie dust,
• 41:16
  which is delicious dust,
• 41:18
  but it's dust.
• 41:19
  And the,
• 41:19
  that's basically what the bones are of Joel and Bede at this point.
• 41:22
  So,
• 41:23
  um,
• 41:23
  gonna be an interesting season.
• 41:24
  Maybe on Thursday's show,
• 41:26
  we'll do,
• 41:27
  an NBA over-under draft
• 41:29
  and look at this season and see if I can,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:31
  you know,
• 41:32
  uh,
• 41:32
  I mean,
• 41:33
  Adam's doing well in the Senate Fantasy League,
• 41:34
  but he'd do terribly,
• 41:35
  uh,
• 41:36
  in the NBA over under him.
• 41:37
  Maybe we'll bring him into the draft too,
• 41:38
  so we can,
• 41:39
  we can beat up on,
• 41:40
  on him.
• 41:41
  Um,
• 41:41
  OK,
• 41:41
  we're gonna take a break,
• 41:42
  back in a second.
• 41:54
  All right,
• 41:54
  it's time for candidate countdown.
• 41:56
  We pick a race that we think there's some value in,
• 41:58
  and this one is,
• 41:59
  this is legitimately my favorite,
• 42:01
  uh,
• 42:02
  one in the entire,
• 42:03
  I think the entire,
• 42:04
  uh,
• 42:05
  prediction market space right now.
• 42:07
  Our candidate countdown candidate of the day,
• 42:09
  14 days until the election is.
• 42:12
  Obviously,
• 42:13
  Bernie Sanders,
• 42:15
  independent
• 42:16
  from Vermont.
• 42:16
  A nice picture of Bernie there.
• 42:18
  Looks very,
• 42:18
  very pleasant as usual.
• 42:20
  Now,
• 42:20
  Bernie isn't running for anything,
• 42:22
  so it makes it hard to make him candidate of the day,
• 42:24
  but there's a specific market that I absolutely like.
• 42:26
  And let me highlight it with this New York Times
• 42:28
  article from
• 42:28
  Today,
• 42:29
  drawn by Nixon's surprise surge,
• 42:31
  Sanders makes a rare Florida trip.
• 42:34
  Now,
• 42:34
  uh,
• 42:34
  Nixon is Ashley Moody's opponent.
• 42:36
  Um,
• 42:37
  at no point
• 42:38
  in the article do they identify any piece of evidence that would,
• 42:42
  I would tell you that there is a surge for Nixon.
• 42:45
  I don't know what they're talking about.
• 42:47
  There's no
• 42:48
  surge for Nixon.
• 42:49
  Moody leads in the polls and has led in the polls pretty consistently.
• 42:53
  Uh,
• 42:53
  there's been a couple of polls where it's been close,
• 42:56
  but there's no big surge,
• 42:57
  there's no big momentum going towards Nixon.
• 42:59
  Um,
• 43:00
  but
• 43:00
  I guess,
• 43:01
  uh,
• 43:01
  you have to accept the premise to,
• 43:03
  uh,
• 43:03
  subscribe to The New York Times.
• 43:05
  Uh,
• 43:05
  so Democrats are surging everywhere,
• 43:06
  just so you're aware.
• 43:07
  This is what,
• 43:07
  uh,
• 43:08
  this is the market though that I love,
• 43:09
  which is she did,
• 43:10
  he did endorse Cynthia Nixon,
• 43:12
  which I will say Cynthia.
• 43:13
  What's her name?
• 43:13
  I can never remember her actual name.
• 43:15
  It's Nixon.
• 43:16
  Uh,
• 43:16
  what's her name?
• 43:17
  Ms.
• 43:17
  Nixon,
• 43:18
  is what they say in the New York Times story.
• 43:19
  Angie,
• 43:20
  thank you.
• 43:20
  Angie Nixon.
• 43:22
  Um,
• 43:22
  who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?
• 43:25
  I
• 43:26
  love this market.
• 43:27
  I can't get enough of this market.
• 43:29
  And it is premised on the idea
• 43:31
  that
• 43:32
  Bernie Sanders.
• 43:34
  He is a,
• 43:34
  is a cog in the Democratic wheel here.
• 43:37
  He wants his candidates to win.
• 43:39
  First of all,
• 43:39
  Bernie Sanders is not very giving with his endorsements.
• 43:42
  Um,
• 43:43
  he is a guy who actually will only really go after and,
• 43:47
  and endorse people
• 43:48
  with a few exceptions in races he really,
• 43:51
  really cares about with candidates that are
• 43:52
  very closely aligned with his version of
• 43:54
  being a Democrat or a socialist.
• 43:56
  Um,
• 43:56
  Cynthia Nixon,
• 43:57
  or
• 43:58
  Cynthia Nixon also fails,
• 43:59
  but,
• 43:59
  uh,
• 44:00
  also Angie Nixon in Florida is,
• 44:01
  is in that bucket.
• 44:03
  But there's a bunch of candidates that aren't.
• 44:04
  In fact,
• 44:05
  the entire premise of their candidacies is that they are not socialists.
• 44:09
  Now,
• 44:10
  I gotta tell you,
• 44:10
  I don't see any real room between these people and socialists.
• 44:13
  So that's my opinion.
• 44:14
  I'm just telling you that upfront.
• 44:16
  But
• 44:16
  the whole pitch
• 44:18
  to voters.
• 44:19
  About
• 44:20
  James Tallarico,
• 44:21
  is he's a moderate.
• 44:23
  He's almost a Republican.
• 44:25
  Uh,
• 44:25
  Mary Peltola,
• 44:26
  oh my gosh,
• 44:27
  so Republican.
• 44:29
  Dan Osborne in Nebraska,
• 44:31
  he's,
• 44:31
  he's so not a Democrat
• 44:33
  and so not a socialist,
• 44:35
  he's an independent.
• 44:37
  All these people,
• 44:38
  the whole pitch is to basically fool normal independent voters,
• 44:43
  uh,
• 44:43
  that these people are not Democrats because
• 44:45
  they wouldn't normally vote for Democrats.
• 44:47
  They're trying to fool them into voting
• 44:49
  for these independent candidates and moderate candidates.
• 44:52
  So
• 44:52
  an endorsement from Bernie Sanders would be the worst possible thing for them.
• 44:56
  So why would he do that?
• 44:58
  So I have no on tons of these people.
• 45:00
  Tallarico,
• 45:00
  by the way,
• 45:01
  here,
• 45:02
  a rally with Bernie Sanders in the same state.
• 45:04
  What did Tallarico do?
• 45:06
  Tallarico skips the Bernie Sanders rally in Texas.
• 45:09
  They're,
• 45:10
  they're campaigning for him.
• 45:11
  He didn't even go to the rally.
• 45:13
  Bernie Sanders,
• 45:14
  one of the biggest,
• 45:15
  you know,
• 45:16
  figures in the political space.
• 45:17
  So.
• 45:18
  Uh,
• 45:18
  every,
• 45:19
  every piece of these types of candidates,
• 45:20
  Peltola,
• 45:21
  uh,
• 45:21
  a lot of them are up in the 90s now.
• 45:23
  I've been buying them all the way up.
• 45:24
  Uh,
• 45:25
  but I've mentioned this,
• 45:25
  uh,
• 45:26
  before,
• 45:26
  it's one of my favorite markets on all of the prediction market space
• 45:29
  right now because I just don't see why there would be any reason.
• 45:31
  There's always risk because it's just one guy and he can just blurt something out.
• 45:34
  So there's a little risk there.
• 45:35
  But generally speaking,
• 45:36
  I feel pretty good
• 45:37
  in that market that Bernie Sanders will not
• 45:39
  endorse any moderates
• 45:41
  in this campaign.
• 45:42
  OK,
• 45:42
  that's all the time that we have for today.
• 45:44
  Join us at predictableShow.com and get your Senate Fantasy League team in.
• 45:48
  It's at senatefantassy.com.
• 45:49
  It's free and you can win thousands of dollars in prizes.
• 45:52
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 45:54
  We'll see you tomorrow.