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The Favorites - NFL Week 2 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are parts of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman, chief content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: We are live from our Tommy John home studios. I
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: just love the fact that Tommy John is basically sponsoring
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: my office. I'm joined as always by my co host,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: my companion, Michael Padre might BFF professional better signon Hunter,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Hello som it.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Hello Chad.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Week two a reaction week. Brother, what are we overacting to?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Oh? Basically everything I know? Like I know the second
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: we mentioned the Carolina Panthers, We're just gonna blow up
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: our YouTube chat and uh bring the the power of
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: vikings upon our head from our listeners. And we deserve
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: it for that look. Wild and wacky Week one that
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: ended with the Jets Niners game on Monday night, which
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: we had included in our Phase five picks, and we
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: had the Jets. Because of that game, we finished two
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: and three for the week. Our foxhole was very lonely
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: because that pick was the Giants. My exact decision was
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Carolina enough said there, Your assignment says was indeed very
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: well done. Our first Tommy John, Big balls better the
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: season was Detroit and we won that. Simon, Is it
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: possible we're the Cincinnati Bengals of podcast prognosticators because this
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: is the second year in a row where we started
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: off a little bit slow.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: No, I think I think it was two years ago
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: we started five and now I think it just says
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: more that it's good to be Joe Public. Right, four
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: and oh five the Favorites with four in the primetime games?
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: Was it thirteen and three straight up favorites?
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Yep? Yeah, last year the Favorites. By the way, if
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: you were betting the Favorites, you were ROI positive for
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: the first time in the entire generation. We've been tracking
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: that in the Action Network with all of our data.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So listen, I don't want to dwell on the week.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: This is what our Sunday recap episode is for. You
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: can catch that episode in every episode of the Favorites
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: live only on the Action Network YouTube channel. Be sure
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: to like and subscribe. In a moment, we'll recap the
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: results of week one in our contest, will announce the
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: winner of our first one thousand dollars weekly cash prize.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: If you're new here, you need to sign up for
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: the Free Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Pick Them contest presented by BED three six five. Remember
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: we will drop your worst score after week five. So
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: even if you've forgot to sign up and didn't make
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: any picks, you've still got time five picks against the
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: spread each week one hundred grand in cash prizes up
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: for grabs. First place gets forty thousand dollars. Sign up
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Favorites that Action Network dot Com Again, Favorites that Action
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Network dot Com. No reason to be listening to the
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: show and not signing up for that if you can
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: win money every week just by just putting picks in
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: a free game as a reminder of the Favorite podcast's presented
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five and now new BET three
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: when you bet five bucks. Sign up using promo code
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used for spreads, totals, player props, futures,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary at bet
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older and
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem one eight
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: hundred gambler one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa, terms
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: conditioned restrictions apply. Finally, Contest Recap Tough Week. In the contest,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: only one point three percent of participants went five to oh, sigmon.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Congratulations to our first weekly winner the season. See J
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Childs nineteen ninety three went five and oh in the
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: contest and missed the tiebreaker by one yards. So did
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: another entry. However, c J submitted picks first and the
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: earlier submission time wins, So enjoy your thousand dollars cash, CJ.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: As always, our producer Matt Mitchell, has selected his Producer's
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Cup award for the entry that finished dead fucking last
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: in the contest.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Lord and lose?
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: He's a louis About He's still kidding try.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to Seth Dog, who went
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: zero to five and missed the tiebreaker by four hundred
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: and fourteen yards seth Dog. Please email Matt Podcasts at
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize time for week two.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: So some of this season long props that we are
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: going to be tracking. Trevor Lawrence with the league in
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: passing twenty two to one in the first half. He
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: looked like a world beater. Aiden hutchinsonid to lead the
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: league in sacks at fourteen to one. If anyone watched
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Convince Me, our Sunday morning YouTube show eleven am in
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: the Action Network app on YouTube, Sean Kerner gave out
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson over seven point seventy five sacks. He got
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: that on the second and last play of the game
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: and he was in Matthew Stafford's grill all freaking night.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: So that was a deserved win. Cooper Cup thirty to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: one to lead the league in receiving yard it pretty strong.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: That started ten to one, ten to one, Yeah, so
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: that was a nice one.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Dude, Simon, you know what, You're so good.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: That's all it takes.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks, Jeff, You're so good man. I love you. I'm
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: gonna give a couple of friends that are relevant. I
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to repeat them every time, So if I
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: if I say the trends are relevant during the game
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: during one of our breakdowns. It's referring to these Week
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: one and two one to five and a half point
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: underdogs are sixty four percent since two thousand and eighteen,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: but they did go four and eight in week one,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: So should we expect a regression at this point? Favorites
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: of one to three and a half forty three percent
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: in September the past twenty years, and those small favorites
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: especially don't perform well in the first three weeks when
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: they are just forty two percent two thousand and fourteen,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: flip side eight and four in week one. So either
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: the trend is dead this year because the public is
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: doing so well as we've seen, or there's going to
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: be a regression. Here we go, buddy, Here we go.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Thursday night football, Buffalo, Miami. A lot of intrigue here.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen injured practicing. Game opened at one Miami at
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: one on Sunday night. Moved up, got up to two
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: and a half, and I was back down to two
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: at bet three six five seeing one and a half
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: at some at some books, give me the under I don't.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I don't have any Wow.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: Now the only play here is Miami and Miami is
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: the play definitely in the spot short week the Bills
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: coming off that win they had compared to this Miami
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: team that they know they stole one, right, I just
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: think it they played as bad as they could possibly
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: play and they still won that game, where I think
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: we might have seen one of the best games you
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: possibly see at a job shound that Bills team.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Right, there's number one rule when you when you love somebody,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: tell him my God.
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: I love Josh Allen, so we love love God.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: Goodbye.
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: I think he had four total touchdowns and he was
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: just it was all clicking, especially in that second half
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: against an Arizona defense. I think Miami's defense is much
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: better than Arizona's defense, especially their secondary and offensively. I
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: like the matchup for Miami, man, like they're the speedsters.
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the counter to that is for
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: this Bills team. So we talk all the time. Chat
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: if it's under three and it's two at home, we
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: take this spot, don't we like? Unless unless they're playing,
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: you know, one of the better teams of football. If
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: they're playing the forty nine ers or the Chiefs, I
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: would definitely be hesitating less. They're a big dog. But
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: in this spot, this doesn't feel like this is the
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: same old Bills man, Like there is a weakness to
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: this team. There is a reason to doubt this Bills team.
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: So yeah, before he came on, Matt Mitchell gave me
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: a little bit of relief, said that the the the
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: whatever is going on, Josh Allen, It's not a break, right,
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: That's what the fear was that he had maybe broken
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: his wrist. It's you know, we don't know what it
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: is yet, right, it's still early.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: In the week.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, God forbid, the forty nine ers didn te
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: Us McCaffrey was out until an hour before. Like, we
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: might not really know until right before kick what is
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: happening with his wrist. But if you can't take snaps
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: under center, that's a huge deal going forward for this
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: Hill's team. That he's always gonna have to be in shotgun,
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: that is a big deal. So yeah, this this feels
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: that kind of spot we like to play Miami. I
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: know we can't take them to contest, but if people
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: are gonna ask me what side do I like here
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: at minus two? As long as it you know, hopefully
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: maybe goes back down on one and a half, but
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: it might go up to two and a half. But
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: as long as it's two or down to one and
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: a half, I like Miami at that number.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So I guess what was confusing to me is this
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: seems to me like you're playing what you saw on
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the field in one game for each team and discounting
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of the trends that we usually rely on
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: in the first two weeks, all of which I just mentioned.
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: And well you said historically I always take my like
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: I take two in the spot, so this is not
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: this year.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: This is last year too.
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: So my guy, Evan Abrams, you got this in the
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: chat chat. Yeah, it's just sad two of favors of
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: three or less at home nine to three against the spread.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: So suck on that, mister. One week chat.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: It wasn't the criticism what you're saying, but no, it's observation.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Just that.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: No, I'm with you.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: You know, like normally we like at least two weeks
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: of sort of data, and I always feel like week
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: three is when we can maybe be a week ahead
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: of the public, like we will have been able to
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: see things in the games and then apply that to
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: how bookmakers are lining these games after two weeks efectively
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: than we can after one week. And so to me,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: all I'm saying is you're seeing on the fields some
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: things that make you feel like after both teams kind
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: of snuck out of the game at home for each
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: of them with a win. Right the Bills, they were
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: kind of they were getting blown out early, they were
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: down ten. I think they had to come back. They
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: got that game.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: It was seventeen to three in that game.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Seventeen to three. So they came back with like you know,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: because the Cardinals did Cardinals things. They made mistakes. Their defense,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: you know, wasn't very good, which we expected. Kyler Murray
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: was playing as we hoped he would, and the Jags
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: basically gave that game away to Miami. So neither team
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: showed anything on the upside. They played like the teams
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: that are fallible that we expect them to be. That's
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: why I'm surprised a little bit by your strong opinion here.
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: And wait on the injury report to ken because Miami
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: also both their starting runbacks might be hurt. And again
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: we don't know what the deals with Josh Allen. So
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: if you want to wait, I tell that A and
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: I'm just grabbing this number now just in case it
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: does go up.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I am going to spare our listeners time on the
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: next game, LA Chargers of Carolina. Carolina is a six
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: and a half point undered up. Should we even bother?
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Of course, the right side is the Panthers. I refuse
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: to subject our listeners to this kind of torture or
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: open ourselves up to even more ridicule.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: No, just know this is the pro side. Of course,
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: it's bet in Carolina and the Chargers. If you have time,
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: go and watch Herbert.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: In that game.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, oh my god, this man did not look
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: like the Herbert we all know and love. So the
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: horrball identity of just the run scheme I love so much.
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: So I understand why the movements come in here because
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: they do have an identity where this Carolina team has
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: zero and they have zero leadership. So Chad's Hesitation's right.
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: I won't be giving this out on this show people.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: If you're gonna ask what side I'm on, obviously I'm
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: on the side of Carolina and probably gonna put them
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: in our money line round robin that I like to
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: give out.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: So I know it's gross, but it's.
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: Like giving me plus two point fifty at home against
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: this Chargers team on the road. I have to do it.
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: So we'll not be one of our one of our five.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: I promise you that. But yeah, Chad's right, we'll keep
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: it moving.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: This is the hard part about what we do and
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: doing it for public consumption, is we love the Panthers.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: We talked about the Panthers. You know, we were standing
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: our ground on the Panthers. We also stood our ground
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: on the Lions. We also stood our ground on the Colts.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: And like each game is only one game, but because
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: the Panthers were such an ugly dog, and because we
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: leaned into them so hard, even though it only counts
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: as one loss and the same way the Colts only
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: count as one win, it has just become so much
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: harder for us to swallow that that they've become a
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: little bit of poison for us. We will both probably
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: be on the Panthers. We will not put this in
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: the contest naked a big balls or anything else, as
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: tempted as we are going to be. When this game
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden rockets to seven on Thursday, Like
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: we just can't do it to people.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: We can the Panthers.
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: It's what people hate about someone like me who does profession,
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: which is like you think you're so smart, you think
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: you know what so much more than me. I could
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: have told you six months ago that was a bad bet,
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: that the Panthers suck and they're a shitty team. It's
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: like you got me, like there is no rebuttal to that,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: Like you got me after one week. So that's why
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: I'm praying, praying shad that that was mirage and they'd
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: turn around here. But man, me and you talked about it.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: We watched that game tape. I broke that film down.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: There is not much hope to grab onto. It just
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: all looks bad. So you are you and the fans
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: all right, we are not putting this team in. Even
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: if they do win and cover this game, I'm still
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: not gonna be convinced to put this one in for
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: a little bit.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Well, that's also the hard part about the trends and
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: doing this on a week to week basis, and especially
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: like making big bets and taking big risks in week one,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: is people hear that and we try to say with
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: the trends, you got to bet them every time, because
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: that's how you get the ROI, and that's how you
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: win fifty three percent of the time. Because if you
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: pick and choose your spots, then it could be that
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: you only choose it the four and a half to
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: five times that you lose. So you kind of once
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: you're in the game and you're grinding, you kind of
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: got to be in the game. It's it's like playing craps.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: You can't just decide, like retenth role, you're gonna put
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: your money on the table. You got you gotta go
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: with it.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: Man. Even even last night, right we had the best
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: of the number and we were in a spot of
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: a trend we loved. Right, the team that loses the
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl, they're five and nineteen against the spread in
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: those spots. The forty nine ers have had covered a
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: home game in seven straight games up to that point.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: So it was like all these little things we loved
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: all let up to it. We got waxed.
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: We looked like an idiot, eg in our face are
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: we We're nineteen and six on that bet. So it's
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: just like it is brutal right, you're so right, Like
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: it didn't work out for this time, but long term
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: that's a winner.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: So it's one we're gonna stick to long term.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: We're long term players here. We're not looking to score
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: big wins and then cash out. We just want to
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: keep going for the rest of our lives. New Orleans
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: at Dallas. Dallas is a six and a half point favorite.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: The line was six on Sunday and it was moving.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: We talked about it on Sunday night. Is one of
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: the first games that we talked about and sort of
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: our look ahead, we both hit it. You thought it
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: might get the seven. It's currently headed that way. Where
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: do you have this power rated? Actually, before I get into.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: That seven, and like, I liked it at the six, and
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: now it's at six and a half, it's like, all right, really,
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: do we still really want to play this one or
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: really that confident because this is pretty chalky.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: Yes, So we'll see as week.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: Goes along here if this is one of the favorites,
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: we do put in. But I'm assum we're all the
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: other favorites we like more than this one. But like
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: at six, that felt like a good number to take
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: Dallas at that number at home in this spot, you know,
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: we crossed that key number of six into six and
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: a half now, so it's like, yeah, my model says
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: there's still value here, But I can't tell you how
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: many times me and chat had been burned by that
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: extra point when we take a favorite in this spot.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: So I don't want people here just to take the
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: six and a half just thinking, well, the guys are
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: on at six, I'll take the six and a half.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: It is a big deal to me.
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: So if this is a game me and you pass
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: on this week, I have no issue with that. But
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: still like the Cowboys in this spot against a team
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: that we don't think they're that great just because they
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: put up fifty points against bad Carolina team. It's just,
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: you know, my hope is that this would have got
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: bet down and we would have got great value. And
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: that's a game I would have gave it on the show.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: If this was five and a half, I would have
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: played this in contest. But actually it's called the other way.
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: I don't think the public's behind the bullshit. The Saints
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: are selling. So yeah, this is up to six and
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: a half of most books.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: Job.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Well, look, that's what's really interesting. That's what I was
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: going to say, is you've got two teams coming off
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: of blowouts. Yeah, except the Cowboys. If you unpack it,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: it's just so much more impressive. Right, And at the
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: end of the day, we're still talking about Dennis Allen
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: and Derek Carr, who are historically bad as coach and
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: quarterback straight up in this spot. So I have no
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: fear of betting the Cowboys here. This is a game
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: where Dak and the Cowboys tend to overperform. We like
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Dallas at six six and a half. It's a question mark.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: This game may steam to seven because Dallas was so
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: good and people may realize how bad the Saints really
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: are and that they beat up on just a really
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: bad team. Yeah, Las Vegas at Baltimore.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: I know this number is way too high. I want
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: to tell you something. I read this in The Athletic
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: this weekend the other day, and I thought this was
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: great in a wrap up of the Raiders game, because
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I thought the decision making by Antonio Pierce was atrocious.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Now that game.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: All the way around, it cost them the game.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: It definitely did.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: In the fourth quarter, they were down sixteen to ten.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: They were on the Charger's forty three yard line. With
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: seven minutes fifteen seconds remaining, they had a fourth and one.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: He decided not to go for it, and the camera
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: actually caught him saying, as they're lining up for the punt,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: should I be going for this? For the Athletic, it
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: was the first time an NFL team had punted on
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: fourth and one from the opposing team's territory while trailing
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter since September eleventh, twenty sixteen, so
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: eight years. The Athletic rowth this was funny. It was
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the league's most timid play call in that situation in
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: nearly eight years. I mean, what, how can we count
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: a coach like that, even as a nine and a
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: half point dog?
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: Ah?
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: Man, I know what if it's ten points, does that
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: intrigue you a little? Because I think it's going to
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: get there. I just I think the public'sent of the
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: view just as you're viewing it. And my hope is,
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: you know, someone gets in his ear and says, listen,
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: last year, when you were playing for a job, you
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: were winning, you were aggressive, it worked out for you.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: Now you're playing to keep your job and you're going
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: to lose your job if you play to keep if
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: you're playing this way.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: So my fear with him is he doesn't know what
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: he's doing.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: Right in the first half, he was going for it
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: on their own side of the ball, like he was
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: super aggressive, and then it didn't work out for him.
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: So now he's going the other way and playing really conservative,
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: and it's like, dude, you're the team that has the
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: two turnovers in this game.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: You can't be going conservative.
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: You're You're they're out gaining them and doing everything they
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: wanted to against that charges team and they only put
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: up ten points.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, Minshew had a good game.
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: I know people want a bag on them, but it's
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: like he actually played pretty well in that game all
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: things considered.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: So uh yeah, I get I get.
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: The hesitation, Chad, but you probably don't remember it. I do,
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: just because I remember a lot of our fun, ugly wins.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: But we took the Raiders this exact scenario, you know,
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: not even I don't know, two years ago, and they
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: were like a ten point dog I think against the Ravens,
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: and I'm pretty sure they won outright, So.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: How do we not play this spot.
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: I'm just I'm so tempted to take it because it
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: is one of the ugly dogs of the week, and
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: this this feels like what since he was last week, right,
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: since he losing outright broke all the survivor pools, That's
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: what feels like this Ravens team could be this week
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: where it's like everyone looks at like an easy game
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: where I like the guys up front match up again,
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: says Ravens front. Like again, that's the questions, right, the
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Ravens front. I don't think they looked that great against
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: that Chiefs team.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Chet so about their offensive line.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I don't know. Maybe I'll better get you
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: there by Thursday show. But if it's ten ten and
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: a half, how do we not get this in contest?
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: That's such a huge number for a Ravens team that
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: I don't think they deserve that type of respect yet.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Well, look, I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm feeling
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: a little chalky today. A lot of games. I like, Okay,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: we're chalky. I wasn't saying I wanted to bet the
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Ravens at minus nine and a half. I was just
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: saying I wasn't committed to the Raiders yet, even though
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: of course this is the right side part of it
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: is a bias, Like you know, I don't think this
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: is a very good team, and you and I just
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: happened to disagree on this. I know you like the
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Raiders and they're over. We couldn't get together and decide
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: that we liked the Raiders in the game last weekend.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I just don't trust them as a team right now. Minshew,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: it was great twenty five or three three, I think,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: yeah for two fifty seven in a touchdown one thing.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: And the Ravens were not great on Thursday night. They
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: were not great on Thursday night, and they were a
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: toenail away from tying the game against the Kansas City Chiefs,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: who will make all of this look so freaking easy,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: right And so like then, I know John Harbaugh, if
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: he is coming off a buy or has at least
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: ten days to prepare twenty seven and eight straight up
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: twenty thirteen and two against the spread. Technically this is
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: nine days. So do I count this as nine days?
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Do I count this as ten days?
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Do I put this in the spread?
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: The lad brother, I mean it was seven seven and
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: a half and now it's up to nine and a half. Ten,
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: So like that's that is a lot of movement as well.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, we're probably gonna have to bet this
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: gonna be. This is gonna be a hold your nose
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: and bet the number game. It is not right now,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: we're not announcing it's a foxhole. It's definitely not assignment
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: says it's not an exec decision. Bucks at Lions another
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: big number. That number has moved from six to seven. Look,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: we wanted to bet the Rams last week, and the
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: more we broke it down foundationally roster wise, we truly
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: believe this Lions team was just better all the way around,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: and in the end we were proven right. It had
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: to be a terrible sweat because the Rams realized their
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: offensive line is so bad. Matthew Stafford basically had to
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: look at his first read and get rid of the ball,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: and even doing that, Aiden Hutchinson nearly got to him
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: about fifteen times. For those of us who were on
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Convince Me and if you watched Convince Me, our pregame
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: show on Sunday mornings in the Action Happen on YouTube.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: We hit our same game parlay for that because we
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: had the Lions minus four and a half, we had
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: the under and we had Aiden Hutchinson over point seventy
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: five sacks, So we had to wait until the second
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: or last play of the game and then an overtime
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: dominant drive to cover both of those bets and cover
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: the SGP. But the Lions proved in the overtime. Why
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: are we bet on them? They just forced their will
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: on the Rams and ran down the field. They're just good.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: They're really good.
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: Every week is different and you don't know what it's
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: going to take. Do not, do not ever feel bad
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: about a win, man, They're too hard to come by.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: You earn that win, no matter what you say. You
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: earn that win, and we will accept it.
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: I know, I'm so torn on this game because it's
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: like I wanted to do the Lions and now it's
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: up to seven, and it's like they put it all
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: the way up there just so that I'd have to
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: question this where it's like I did like the value
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: on them, because let's face the Bucks, they might have
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: just played the worst defense on football. The Commanders they
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: might be atrocious on defense. We talked that head into
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: the season. They just they kind of sold it all,
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: got rid of everybody. You expect it to be like this,
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: but yeah, Yeah, this is tough, brother, this is this
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: is up to seven now, it's like, you know, seven,
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: seven and a half, I kind of want to be
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: on the Bucks there. It's like I just I still
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: see the Lions having some issues that can be taken
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: advantage of by this Bucks team. And even in the
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: playoffs last year, right like if if Baker had played well,
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: this is a totally different game, right Like this is
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: they they could have upset them, like they did have
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: some some things that we're working for them. So this
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: Detroit team, like we talked about, I think they're much
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: better than they were last year. So I'm gonna give
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: them the benefit of doubt here and I'll take this
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: if it gets down to six and a half again
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: on the Lions. But seven I'd pass on that.
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say it feels like a pass overall.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Like I don't trust the Bucks.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: No.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I feel like against the Commanders they're going to get
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: too much credit. They're not a good team yet. And
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: this Lions team and Dan Campbell best coach against spread
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: the past five years, Jared Goff twenty six and nine
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: indoors against the spread the past three years. I think
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: like it's just they're really really good. Yeah, really good.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Line's average five point three years per carry.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: All of it too.
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: It's just like we said, they can beat you in
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: so many different ways offensively, and we just, you know,
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: we saw what our hope was when we're like, okay,
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: we think this is one of the three best teams
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: in NFC. I know, I said I might have them
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: even ranked the number one.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: At one point.
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: Jamis and Williams seen him take that next step for them.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: That was probably the most exciting part of that game
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: to me. It's like, Okay, not only do they have
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: maybe a shutdown corner, their number two receiver might be
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: the guy they drafted, you know, whenever he was a
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: top twelve, top thirteen pick. Yeah, you got to be
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: feeling pretty damn good if you're Detroit Lions fan.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah. I mentioned at the top of the show
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: that we are coming to you live from our Tommy
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: John Home studios. That is because the good people of
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Tommy John are the show's newest sponsor. If you haven't
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: heard me glow about Tommy John, let me just say this.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Sunday was an excruciating day in which my bets included
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: sweating the Detroit Lions to cover in overtime, the Aiden
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Hutchinson sack and the Colts miracle backdoor cover against the Texans.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I was comfortable the whole day, the whole day, never
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: lost my cool because I was wearing my Tommy John underwear.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: It is like a second skin, Simon. It makes me
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: feel so better on Sundays, I'm so much less stressed
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: because I'm wearing my Tommy John's. I'm just staying cool
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: only because of how comfortable and confident we feel in
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Tommy John underwear. We were able to nail our big
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: balls better the week that Lions game, and Tommy John
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• 29:30
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• 29:37
  Speaker 1: New York Tennessee Titans. Help me not overreact to what
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: we saw, which was Will Levis being confused making rookie
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: mistakes that cost his team the game. Evan gave us
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: that great stat about the Titans collapse on the Sunday
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Night Show. They led the Bear seventeen nothing and lost
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: twenty four to seventeen. They failed to cover the spread
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: dogs of four plus points to lead by seven. Team
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: at any point in the game were sixty six one
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread since two thousand and nineteen.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: What are we doing here?
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: I wanted to go Jets, you know, to me, this
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: is me one of our chalkier picks, because I was like,
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: you know what, the Jets will covered last night and
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: then this number will probably get down or I mean
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: I should say go up to minus six. Didn't work
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: that way, right, I think there are still some major
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: questions about this Jets defense, still some questions about what
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: their identity is going to be on offense. So I
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: get the public being a little weary of this game, right.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: This numbers moved to three and a half now to
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: a couple of books. You know, professionals are just guys
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: taking this number here with Tennessee because I just I
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: can't see who publicly.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: Is betting Tennessee, right, I think, you know.
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: They were one of the more public dogs of the
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: week last week, and everyone got burned, Like everyone got burned.
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: So Tennessee was definitely gonna be a team that was like, Okay,
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: me and Chat will probably have to bet this next week. Now,
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: I'm not feeling as forced into it because I think
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: you have the same hesitation as I do. What confidence
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: do we have? And Will levis I just I have none.
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: I just if it's third and five, I'm just I'm terrified,
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: And especially when it's him thrown against Sauce and like
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: these other guys they got it's it's not good. So
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to view this of the Jets just ran
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: into maybe the best team in the NFC. Rogers, to me,
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: he looked like his old self. I don't know you
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: thought about a Chad, but like seeing a couple of
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: his throws, I mean it's just like, Wow, this guy's
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: arm talent is just out of this world, and you
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: kind of forget that sometimes.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: So oh my god, there was that laser, not the
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: deep ball, but along the sideline. Oh my god.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: That Yeah.
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: So that's where I'm mad at with it, where it's
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: like you're gonna give me three and a half, I'll
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: go with the public. I'll take the Jets here, But
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: I don't know if this will be one of our five.
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: I don't know if this is one of our favorites,
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: but it could be come Thursday, because right now I
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: have bet at minus three and a half. But I'm
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: just trying not to overreact too much to what happened
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: to this Jets team against the forty nine ers, and
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: I feel like I'm properly reacting with Will Levis against
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: that Bears defense, where it's like, if you have a
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: good secondary, I think that's gonna be this Tennessee's teams kryptonite,
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: where they're good at running the ball and everything like that,
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: but when it comes time to pass it, he just
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: he's not gonna be that guy for you. So I
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: think the Bears have a really good secondary. I think
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: the Jets have even better of a secondary. So I'm
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna back the Jets.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: In the spot.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, the trends are all over back in the Titans.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Everything I mentioned at the top of the show, they
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: all back the Titans. And then I'll give you a
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: couple others here from Evan. Teams that open as four
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: or higher at home in weeks one and two fifty
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: eight percent against the spread the past twenty years. Teams
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: that open at four or higher at home after losing
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: their previous game sixty four percent since twenty twenty and
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: this this is one that we usually love. Teams to
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: blow a ten point lead in week one, the next
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: week in week two, twenty eight, seventeen and one against
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: the spread since nineteen ninety That includes the Cardinals, the Jags,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: and the Titans.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: Interesting, I know, interesting.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: I know, But it's like, why are we making We
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: say all the time like we don't want to overreact,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: and I know you just said you're trying not to,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: but I have we just decided Will Levis is so
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: bad that he breaks the trend? Right? Is that is
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: that where we're at?
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: Well, like you say all the time, Chad, there's a
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: couple on the other side of those trends, there's winners, right,
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: So it's like they don't always win.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: I think we'll love us as part of that other
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: side of that trend. So interesting.
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: Tik though, on the game other games you mentioned, because
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: I do obviously reviewing those games that that could help
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: skew me towards the side I want to go to
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: with those those games.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: We're about to talk to you. You're gambler who bets
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: on the Jets. Have you not learned anything about betting?
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: The Jets are gonna come back, gonna Seattle in New England.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: New England is a three point underdog at home right now.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: So with this, this hits the trends. But I don't
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: like it. Ed ain't no go ahead.
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say. I just saw Brandon Anderson.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: He was telling me one of his early bets, I
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: believe with Seattle.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Which I'm about to say that.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair. I said to me, that's
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: a fair bet.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: But it's like, man, is that offensive line terrible for Seattle?
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: Like they're so bad it makes me a little scary
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: to bet them because most books are showing minus three
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: and a half.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that's that's crazy.
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: People are taking Seattle at minus three and a half
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: on the road in this spot.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: But Evan and Brandon Anderson and Brendan Glasheen, who's the
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: show the Action Network podcast Sunday Night wrap up show.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: One of my favorite segments that we do is Brandon's
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: very early lines breakdown. He's always got a nugget we
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: may have missed right, and you and I did not
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: talk about the Seahawks in early betting. On Sunday night
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: on our show, he was saying, you got to get
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: it before it gets to three and a half. It
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: was already getting into three and a half Monday morning,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: came back down, it's gone back up, so we know
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: that like Wise guys are hitting that three. It's not
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: the public betting Seattle early in the week, and I
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: think some of this is sort of carryover from the
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: week before. I think the Wise guys love Mike McDonald's defense.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: They love what he is going to be able to
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: do with that team. They only allow three point three
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: yards per play, even though it was against a rookie quarterback.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: But the truth is the Pat's O line is actually
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: worse than Denvers. So I can see why there is
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: sentiment to play New England or to play Seattle in
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: this spot.
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, to me, the three you take. If you can
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: get the three for Seattle, you take it. I just
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: the three and a half. I feel like that's where
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: we're having contest. That's gonna be hard to do. But
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: New England's bad. Like even when I went back and
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: watched the tape, it's like it really was just Cincinnati shooting.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: Themselves in the foot. Constant.
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Stevenson, he might being more underrated
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: running backs and all football for this Patriots team.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: I think it was like one.
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: Hundred and nineteen yards of his was after contact, Like
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: this guy is getting hit in the backfield and still
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: turning out three and four yards at a chunk.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I wish it was lower. Check is two
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: This is a no brainer. Seattle minus two and a half.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: I would have loved that. But that's my pause where
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to play this in the contest. It's like,
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: I don't want to put this in a minus three
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: and a half. This just feels like this game is
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: gonna land on three right. It just that's just how
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: I see it going where. Yeah, on paper, Seattle is
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: way better, like even we even talk about their offense
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: weapons here, like Kenneth Walker. I know this sounds crazy,
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: you say compared to Cincinnati, but I'd much rather have
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: Kenneth Walker than anything Cincinnati is running out there.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: DK Metcalf.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: I know he doesn't get the praise that Chase gets
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: because Chase was a top five receiver taken. DK is
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: not that far off, and now you're bringing in the
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: number two receiver Locket. We love Lockett, like he played
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: great in that game for them against Denver, Like whenever
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: you know, needed a big third down, he went to
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: Locket a lot. So yeah, I like it like I
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: like it at minus three. Chat, It's just we're talking
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: contests here.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: I know these son of the bitches that do our contest.
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: They're not gonna give us the two and a half.
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: They're gonna give us the minus three and a half.
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: So that that is tough, knowing that it's just it's
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: just a bad number.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: But yeah, grab grab the three.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: If you want to be on the chalky side and
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: take Seattle, don't forget.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: You can still sign up for the contest, win some
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: money every single week. Plus you get to drop your
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: worst score after the first five weeks, so you still
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: got a shot. Favorite dot actionnetwork dot com.
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: They are a mature, physically powerful squad with a special
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: confidence that allows them to reach for heroism instead of
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: merely trying to avoid mistakes.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: San Francisco at Minnesota. Minnesota is a six point dog.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: This one moved a point off of the Niners win
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football, and it's not hard to see
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: why they had zero problems moving the ball against what
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: is supposed to be the top ranked d line in
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: the league. What's interesting to me last week against the Giants,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Brian Flores, who's known for bringing pressure, did not really
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: bring pressure very often and they still dominated Daniel Jones,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: because you know, it's the Giants or whatever. But if
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: they do that this week, I don't know that it
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: would impact Rock Party all that much because Brock Party
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: last year one of only six qbs to allow fewer
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: than fifteen percent of their pressured dropbacks to become sacks.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: He's just nifty, He's nifty in the pocket. He's very crafty, Simon.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to bet this game.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like I like the forty nine ers.
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: I think it's still public perception here of like a
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: little bit of questioning this forty nine ers team.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: I can't believe this isn't seven.
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: So me and Chatt when we did our show Sunday night,
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: they were minus five just because the Vikings had played
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: so well and people are still a little unsure this
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: forty ures team. Terrifying that this only moved to point
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: Chad like this. This feels a lot like the colch
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: Houston game where the books are taking that position here
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: and they know this will be in every money line teaser,
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: like everyone's gonna throw this game in because they're just
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: like me. And you're right that the forty nine Ers
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: were the best team in football or number two behind
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: It's like nothing changed.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: They came out and what were they dominant at. They
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: were dominant running the ball, and they were dominant at
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: the linebacker position. I mean, it's incredible if eyone wer
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: just changes the whole game, right like that strip sack
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: in the very beginning of the game, I go, yeah,
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: that's the best linebacker in football.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Not shocking.
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: Oh, they have some undrafted free agent running the ball
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: for them, and he's runs for one hundred and forty
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown for the forty nine Ers.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Not that shocking.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan is calling one of the best run blocking
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: schemes in all of football. We all know this, So yeah,
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: crazy number here. I'll take the six for now. Maybe wow,
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: just because I think I'll keep going up. But yeah,
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: this is a this is an interesting game here, Chad,
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: where it's like I still think they're a little bit
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: undervalue in this forty nine ers team.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think we really have so far. We don't
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: have many games that we are dying to take in
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: this contest right now. I've got four games listed that
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: were kind of looking at, but we have not planted
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: a flag in the sand on any game at this point.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: I just want you to know that, Yeah, And.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: I definitely think it's because of all these high six lines.
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: We have a lot of six six and a half's
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: right now. So it's making me a little uneasy here
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: because it's like I immediately want to take the dogs,
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: right I think I even't had a great stat last week.
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: I think every dog that was six points are more covered,
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: and so it's like I'm trying not to do what
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: I did last week of just taking all dogs again
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: because it seems like the favorites have been good to
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: these Joe public bets. So I'm trying not to let
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: the public money scare me off, just because again, me
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: and you a year ago, we would have been all
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: over this Vikings in this spot, like this feels like
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: the exact game we like to play. But it's just like,
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: you know, these have not been cashing for me and
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: Chad like they used to, So I'm trying to adjust
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: to that.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we got to be smart, got to look at
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: the market as it is, not as we want it
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: to be. Hey man, I thought that was pretty good.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: It was right there Indianapolis at Green Bay. So look,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: this game was two and a half on night. We
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: knew that we had a feeling Jordan Love wouldn't be playing.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: We had seen the injury on Friday. You said, bet
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: the Cults to two and a half. If you were
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: smart enough to get the Cult to two and a half,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: good for you. It is now at three and a half.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: Malik Willis will be the starter. This one scares me
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: as it gets higher because all of these trends are
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: in play, and this is exactly when the public is
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: going to jump off the Packers bandwagon. But you know,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: the backups coming into games as dogs in their first
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: start the past three seasons fifty five percent against the spread.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: So it's not crazy for a backup to come in
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: and perform better than the public expects them to perform.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: And it's not like the Cults are super Bowl team
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: right now. It's ANTHONYA. Richardson's nineteenth start since college, right
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: and now he's going to Green Bay. They're not going
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: to roll over. Like they still have a good defense,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Like there's still going to be a team that tries
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: to confuse a young quarterback. They're just not going to
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: be as effective with Malik Willis, at least we don't
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: think they will be. But no one's ever seen the
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: guy play.
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and we last week of the Colts, we played
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: the number and we got lucky, Like the guy was
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: nine for nineteen, right, and so lucky a couple of
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: those completions. It's like, like we said, him missing a
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: guy wide opening the end zone and throwing a pick,
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: You just you don't come back from that, especially a
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: guy like him who's only made four or five starts
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: in the NFL. So you wanna play roulette again, Chad,
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: that's what you're kind of doing here, trying to take this.
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: It's I felt good about the Colts when we got
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: two and a half in three. Now that it's up
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: to three and a half and maybe going to four,
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: it's like this is usually where me and you like
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: to back the floor in these kind of spots, Like he's, yeah.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: This is a no brainer to me to back the floor,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: even though it's Phillips. Yeah, like like to me, I
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: just added green Bay A plus three and a half
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: to our list of games to review on Thursday, because
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: I feel like la Floor early season is also a
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: brilliant coach against right, we got a lot of numbers
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: to back it up. So it's hard not to think
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: about backing Green Bay in this point. Matt Mitchell, Man,
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: Mitchell here going, it's distracting me right now, Matt Mitchell
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: like he is losing his mind that we were talking
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: about back in the league. Willison wown.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: I gotta say, I'm a little ashamed of you. How
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: much is enough?
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: But look like it's it's like I'm backing the number
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: at this point.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: Back That's what I feel about it. I'm a little nauseous. Yeah,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: it's outrageous. It's like I trust Lafloor.
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: If this kid can't complete it two yards, Lafloor is
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: going to know that and they will run some type
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: of spread off. He's just another running back. Like it's
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: going to be ugly. It's going to be I mean,
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: trust me, Matte. No one here wants to make this bet.
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: We're doing this because we have to. Like Chad, you said,
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: we're playing the numbers here and the trends, so I
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: feel like they're all gonna point to see I'm like,
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: we have another game coming up that's even grosser that.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: I know Evan's gonna have some amazing trends on that
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: just backs this team, and it's like eating me.
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: That we have to bet them.
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: But this is another team that's like, I hate that
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: we have to do it, and I know our fans hate.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: But this is what makes this show so great.
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: This is why we always have a winning record, is
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: we do bet these ugly dogs on long term, they
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: pay out for us. So yeah, three and a half,
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: I'll take Green Bay, But the hope is this gets
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: the four.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, here's the problem right now. The games that
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: we've shown the most passion for Raiders at nine and
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: a half and the Packers at three and a half.
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, come on, oh my god, we are just
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: thank god I got those times.
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: You have some favorites done. You just hate betting favorites.
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: I'm I'm trying to give you favorite. You just hate
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: betting favorites.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: I hate betting favorite. Look, I want to bet the
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: favorites too. I actually do want to bet.
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: The county to the trends.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: You know, I think the Cowboys are going to blow
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: the Saints out. I don't think it's going to be
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: even close. So okay, I think I think we'll get
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: there with them. But Jesus, I cannot believe we were
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: taking the Packers seriously right now.
• 46:22
  Speaker 5: So go on side in it's raining bull shit.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: Not I do think. I do think it will be
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: proven out. We still owe assignment says, we still owe
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: an exact decision. We'll probably do Foxhole like on Thursday,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: as we do Big Best. Yeah, I saw New York
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Giants at Washington Commanders two and a half. Look, I
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: saw a lot of bets this week piloting into the
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: action app for Jaydon Daniels at Offensive Rookie of the
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Year plus five hundred. Overall home favorites in the division
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: are five hundred against the spread or worse in six
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: straight seasons. So not a trend where you wouln't necessarily
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: want to back the Commanders. Home division favorites four points
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: or less forty five percent against the spread weeks in
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years weeks one to three forty forty
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: one percent against the spread, so I'm not betting the Giants.
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: That's to the pros are on.
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: It's already down at one and a half in almost
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: every book, So well.
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: Then we're definitely not betting the Giants because we're not
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: even getting the best of the number.
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: Dan, I just don't want to fucking do it. I'm
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: sick of it like that. That just left the worst
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: taste you can possibly in my mouth. I don't really
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: have a read on either team here. It's like, Okay,
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: the biggest weakness in this game is the Commander's defense.
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: Do we really believe Daniel Jones in this offense can
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: take advantage of that. No, but they're going to They're
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: gonna find a way. Like they're not going to play
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: as bad as they were last week. I guarantee you
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: that they're gonna have more than six points. The question
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: is can they outscore this Commander's offense that does seem
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: to have somewhat of an identity. They have a rookie
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: quarterback that can panic and pull the ball down and
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: he can run for days.
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: And you know, we talked about it before the season started.
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: I just I said, I can't see this kid, Daniels
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: last in the season I stand by it, like he
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: just feels a little bit of pressure on him. He's off,
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: he's doing one or two reads and he's off, and
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: he doesn't slide either. He goes for the contact. Like
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: this kid, he's gonna learn the hard way. So yeah,
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: the the pro pro money's gonna come in the Giants.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: So not shocked that this number has moved down here.
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: I'm with Chat. This left such a bad daste in
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: my mouth. I don't want to bet either team in
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: this one.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville and Cleveland here, I think it's a really interesting game,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at Jacksonville. Look, we had another lawsuit file against
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: Deshaan Watson. There are questions about wherehether or not he
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: is cooked or should even be starting at this point.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: He genuinely looks like he doesn't know what is what
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: he was doing out there. I think the only person
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: coming out of the Dallas game with more criticism is
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady. But I'm bump, you're that at you right,
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: It's true, But look the Jags like they withered, They
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: completely withered in the heat against the Dolphins. Like Doug
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: Peterson lost his ever loving mind. He went for it
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: on fourth down deep in his own territory in a
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: close game. What was he thinking, like to just give
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: up field position like that. It didn't really matter because
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins ended up missing a field goal. But like,
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: to me, that was the mindset we got Trevor Lawrence.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: And like in the first half he looked like he
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: was on pace to throw, pace to throw for thrive
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: five hundred yards, ended the game with less than two hundred.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Like they couldn't operate in the second half.
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's also rare in life for like, you know,
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: bad people sometimes get away with it in life, right,
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: they can go through life, they can succeed, they have
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: a good life. It seems like all this horrible karma
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: is finally coming back on Watson, which is just I
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: love it. He just seems like everything you read about him,
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: he just seems like truly a horrible, horrible person. And
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: even the last one I just read about it, it's like,
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: oh my god, this guy's so horrible, so uh looking
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: out that we're supposed to me and Chad be on
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: Cleveland here like this is this is the bet me
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: and Chad always make the last six years and even
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: the trends.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: I couldn't believe.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: I was looking through our data and pulling up trends
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: and trying to see, like, okay, all the trends also
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: point too this Cleveland team here. But then I went
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: back to what me and Chad talk about all the time,
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: which is up front, right, the guy's up front. And
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: you know, before the Jaguars blew that game to Miami,
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: their front four was getting an incredible amount of pressure
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: on Tua.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Yes, what will be different there?
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: And then for this game, they're going against even worse
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: offensive line here, Like you know, I you know Joshua Allen,
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: say what you want about the kid.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: He was incredible last game.
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: Even the you know, they have a couple guys up
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: front they can get pressure for this Jags team. So
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: I'm having a tough time because this is up to
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: minus three and a half chat. But there are a
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: couple of books out there that have the minus three
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: because the pro money is going to come in on
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: this Cleveland team. Like I said, there's a lot of
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: benefits to betting Cleveland team if you like just betting trends.
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: The human part of me, I can't get over there.
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: I just think this Jaguars seems the better team, and
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: I do have questions like you talked about you and
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: you nailed it.
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: Like Callahan leaving this that Browns organization and going down
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: to Tennessee and leaving that offensive line that was such
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: a huge deal. And now yeah, they got two or
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: three backups coming into the offensive line, which to me,
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: he would have helped, right, he would have coached them
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: up to make it work for a game or two.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: They don't have that luxury.
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: So I think the line's right, Like I think the
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: Jaguars should be mine three and a half. So again,
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: another chalky pick by me. But it's like, I just
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: can't get there with this this Cleveland team.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: So I'm hoping Evan's.
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: Gonna put out his trends article maybe he can try
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: to get me on the other side. But right now
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty dug in on the Jaguars.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson had one hundred and sixty nine passing yards
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: on forty five attempts. No quarterback has ever had fewer
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: than two hundred yards on forty five attempts in a
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: week one, and it has only been done twice in
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: the regular season since two thousand.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, it doesn't even sound real.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Forty five attempts one hundred and sixty nine yards. That's insanity,
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: it really is. But what I'm getting is you you
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: said this game is lined right, but you're also on
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars. So does that mean you're finding an edge
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: in the Jaguars or because you said you're betting it?
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, because I had this four so to me minus three, Like,
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: I like the value there. I told you my fear
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: is I talked to a bunch of professionals and they
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: are giving me all the reasons why they're back in
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: Cleveland here and apparently a bunch of trends point to it.
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: And I found a couple of trends they did.
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: But I'm hoping again Evan has an article about what
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: these trends are, because it's just like, I don't really
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: see their reasoning for it.
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: Like they're.
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: Everyone with eyes watched Watson play that game. I know
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: they the same people say, well, what about the Jaguars?
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: And Trevor Lawrence has been incredibly disappointing. They're not even
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: on the same planet, the disappointment between him and Watson,
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: Like we can attribute a lot of what failed Trevor
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: Lawrence up to Doug Peterson, right, and so I think
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: there's stuff there you could correct. Stefanski's putting Watson in
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: the best position he could possibly put this guy in.
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: He's getting the entire offense to him and it's not working.
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: So that's that's my big takeaway from this one.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: Feel bad for Stefanski. I think he's a brilliant coach
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: and he has just been saddled with an albatross of
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: a quarterback and a contract that they can not get
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: out of.
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: I think he had an opinion though, and he had
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: an opinion on Baker.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: I think he was part of it. So don't feel
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: too bad for him.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right. He doesn't feel bad for me if
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: things don't go right, like if I go to if
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: I go to and during in the contest, it's not
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: like he's sitting there saying, you know what, I feel
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: bad for Chad, Like they did good work, they made
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: the right.
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: Thing, Dallas against me.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: You know he's not that Uh, don't forget sign up
• 54:23
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• 54:25
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• 54:41
  Speaker 2: First, Lads of takes.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: All Right, really interesting game. Rams at Arizona Cardinals. Arizona
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: is a one and a half point favorite. They open
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: is a two and a half point underdog. Teams to
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: open as the underdog and close as the favorite forty
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: two percent against the spreads two thousand and eighteen one
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: in one so far this year, Vikings and Browns in
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Week one. Look, I thought the Rams were outperformed. I
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: thought the Rams outperformed the Lions, especially in the second half.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: Like I said, Stafford knew he was going to get
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: rocked if he didn't get rid of the ball, and
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: he did that brilliantly. They really lost just because at
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, the Lions are a better team.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: Arizona came out hot and then did what Arizona always dogs.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: It made the mistakes. I don't think their defense is
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: good enough, and I think there's enough on film for
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: the Rams to figure out, Okay, here's what we can
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: do against the Cardinals. And I was really impressed with
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: the Rams defense in that game.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: Make this line a pick so IBOs.
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: When it opened, I was like, okay, we'll be on
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: the Cardinals here now, like you had just said, it's
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: moved so much.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: The Rams are probably the play here. But it's like, man,
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: this this is a coin flip game.
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: There really isn't that much value either side to me,
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: and I think you did nail a chat where it's
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: like both defenses are terrible, so whoever as the ball last,
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: they win and cover this number, right, And that's yeah
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: to us, that's impossible for us to know.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: You know, my.
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: Safe cowardly play here. It's the tease number. It's perfect.
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: It's it's minus one and a half. It's plus one
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: and a half right now for the Rams, you can
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: take it up to seven and a half.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: So do it.
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: Take that Take that teaser right now, take it up
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: to seven and a half. Because Chad just nailed it.
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: It's like, I don't know how professionals don't come in
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: on the Rams at this point.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: How does that money.
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: Not come in on them as this week goes alonger
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: Because you just said it, It's like, okay, the Rams
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: big weakness right now, what's failing them is their all
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: offensive line and all those injuries.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: Who's taking advantage of that for this Arizona team.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: We just watched it.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know it's Josh Allen. It's like he's
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: the ultimate cheat code.
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: But they had no push up front, and especially that
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: second half when they got tired, like their legs were
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: just gone by the second half.
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, Chad this maybe.
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: On Thursday, I'll have a clear view on it. Right now,
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: but I hate when it's just these one one and
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: a half numbers where it's like, I don't really feel
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: like I'm getting any value here. You know, maybe we'll
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: get it like the Colts, right maybe the bets will
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: come in on Arizona and we'll get it up to
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: two and a half, such a key number, and we'll
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: take the Rams there. But one and a half, I'm
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: just teasing this number.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Look, I think Arizona is still a trendy public dog.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: I think people love them against the Bills, and I
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: think the way they performed against the Bills is going
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: to have people more excited and more enthusiastic. I'm hopeful
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: this number will move in our direction because I would
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: I would like to take the Rams in the spot
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm purposely not talking about tickets and money
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: percentages yet because it's still just too early, like there's.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: Nothing to Yeah, it's too early for that, you.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Know, So like I don't, I know people like it
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: when I do that. I'm just there's not enough volume.
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: Once once the public gets weed it out, like in
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: four or five weeks, then we can really do the
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: Tuesday money because that's that's literally professional money.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: Well, they better read on it.
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: Right now, it's still the next bag early in the season.
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: Kind of everyone's like, you know, throwing the money around
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: early in the year.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: Simon, we still owe a Simon says, we still own
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: exec decision. Oh, it's going up on a game.
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: We're probably gonna play over the same game, aren't we.
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: No, No, I know, I know. How strong will you
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: feel about one of the games coming up? I'm deferring
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: to you Cincinnati and Kansas City. Kansas City is a
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: six point favorite. You set it on Sunday night. You
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: were all over it on Sunday night. It was at six,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: it moved down to five and a half. You liked
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. You were on the side of the money
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: moving the number back to six.
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: Go ahead, yeah, And it's a funny thing where we
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: talk on the show Sunday Night and I have a
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: guy called me up and he's telling me all the
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: reasons why he likes the Chiefs, and I said, fuck you,
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: then keep ben the Chiefs to get me a seven, Like,
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: don't fucking tell me about it.
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: Put your money up so I can get a better number.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: I get where.
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: Everyone's coming from this. It's like Joe Burrow Evan might
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: have a stat on this. I don't think he's never
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: won a Week two game, Chad, I could be wrong.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Well, look I can tell you right now that Joe
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Burrow is now two and seven in weeks one and
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: two against the spread. Yeah, he's terrible. Obviously lost and
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: didn't cover in week one, so keep going.
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: So with all that said, Simon says, give me.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: The Simon say.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: When we do what Sion say, I do think what
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: Chad just says. True though, I think this will go down.
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: I just I see the professional money coming in, like
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: we said us Sunda Night. When I got to six
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: and a half, it's like, did did he really get
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: three points worse than he was a week ago? I
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: just I think that was the game from hell, everything
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: went wrong and maybe I am overlooking that DJ Reader
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: left and you know he isn't right. His throwing wrist
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: isn't right, and you know T Higgins might miss another game.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: And they did lose Joe Mixon. Now they don't have
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: a running game for Joe. Burt will fall back on
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: in We have overrated Joe Burrow just because he beat
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: Mahomes at one time to make it to the super Bowl.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: And it's like, Okay, I hear all this noise.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: I still got to trust the number. It's like Mahomes
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: at this price point. He does not blow teams out.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: We always talk about this. It's like, Okay, put him
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: in your teaser. He's gonna win this game, no doubt. Right,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: this is the games he usually wins. He doesn't roll
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: teams in these kind of scenarios. So the fear is
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: what you just talked about. Joe Burrow in his career,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: he has struggled early in the season. The first two weeks.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: He is bad Evan just putting on our his thing.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: He's zeroing four straight up in week two. Joe Burrow
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: in his career, So I'm not asking to bet that
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: money line here.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: I won't.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: I promise I won't put the money line around Robin,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: but I am asking to grab the six now just
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: because this could go down to five and a half.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: And six is such a key number.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I feel confident in taking making the Simons says,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: if this is six and a half in our co
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: I think meetchad no doubt we'll have this one in.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: At five and a half, that's a discussion. But at
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: six and a half, I definitely feel confident in putting
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: it in.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: So look, everybody knows that I love the luck rankings.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: We talk about it all the time. It's become a
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: really important signal for us when we talk about these games.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: And Nick Giffen is now coming on convince me one
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: of the predictive analytics gurus we have in our team
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: who helped create the luck rankings. This is one of
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: our two luck ranking sides of the week. We're going
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: to talk about the other one. But this is one
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: of the games where if you separate the signals from
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: the noise, you are looking at a game in which
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs might have been overly lucky the week before
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: and the Bengals might have been unlucky the week before
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: and if you bring those two factors together, you're finding
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of value on the plus six. Also, Patrick
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: Mahomes has more than a field goal favorite forty eight
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: percent against spread seventy five percent by the way three
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: or shorter, so well above three. As Simon said, this
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: has moved more than three points since last week, from
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: three to three and a half to six. Mahomes ten
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: thirteen and two against the spread. When the line moves
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: two plus points towards his team, we're betting the overreaction here,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Like we can't be timid, we can't be shy. We
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: still got to exercise the same best practices we know
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: to exercise. The game hasn't changed that much, just because
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: the public hasn't lost in nineteen freaking weeks, including eighteen
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: last year and one week this year. Like some things
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: need to be true. We need something to be freaking
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: true right now. But yes, Simon says, on the Bengals,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: I bet at plus six, you're betting at plus six.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: We're all betting at plus six. Pittsburgh at Denver. We
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: miffed last week, but what.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: No one had counted on was the surprising resolve of
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: these young Steelers.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: Like we should have bet the Steelers. It was the
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: prime Mike Tomlin spot. I don't know why we didn't.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: We got cowardly because of Justin Fields, which was stupid.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: The aggressive Steelers turned the game around.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin just kept with too much noise. I think
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: you're the same boat as me.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: You just you had too many people in your ear
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: telling you too much shit and just stare us off it.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: I agree, And also I think, honestly, I think we
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: were too locked in on games from from the offseason.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: We firmly had bias. That was just the problem. Mike
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: Tomlin has a dog on the road. You book it
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent. Book it. Mike Tomlin is a road favorite.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: Forty four percent spread.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: Last week was last week, This week was this week,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: next week will be next week.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: When Tomlin opens is three or higher on the road
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: thirty eight percent that alone, and this has been a
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: spot we have bet for years. Right, So we're gonna
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: have to bet Denver plus three here. I will say
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Denver is another team that fits into the luck rankings.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: There is a caveat Week two, home locked teams are
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: five hundred against the spread, so there isn't I can't
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: give you that as a factor, but I do like
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: everything else going the Broncos way. To be honest, I
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: was impressed with the Broncos last week. Like I thought
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: they were super competitive. It was a backdoor, you know,
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: sort of pushed for them because the game landed on six.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: But I was impressed with the bank with the Broncos.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: I'm still glad because I was so worried You're gonna
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: come in Pittsburgh with this is a no brain or Denver.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: I dare the sports books to move this up to
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: three and a half. Oh my god, I can't have
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: that much money I'd put on this If it's justin
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: Fields as a minus three and a half favorite on
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: the road, It's like, man, too much love and respect,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: and you know, unlike whatever the hell Atlanta did last week,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: Chempaign's going to have it schemed up just for JJ Watt.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: Everything they do will be either throwing him off balance
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: or moving the ball the other way. Just keep him
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: totally out out of involvement of this entire game. So yeah,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: I love this number. And it also wouldn't even talk
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: about Denver at home. This is another thing I need
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: to get off. Evan but it's like in my lifetime,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: in the first two weeks, whatever the number used to be,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: I used to always take Denver at home. And now
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: you know, these last four or five years I've taken
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: I've taken a step back from just betting it blindly
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: just because Denver had drafted so terribly and they just
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: kept putting out terrible teams.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: Chad nailed it, though.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: Like this team we talked about going the year, I
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: felt like they were going to be hungry and they'd
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: have some fight in them.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: We saw that in Seattle game.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: They could have laid down and died when they were
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: down by double digits, and they didn't. Like I'll admit
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: I had, you know, Seattle in the survivor pool. I
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: thought for sure they were going to get the ball
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: back and bone Mix was going to drive the field
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: and just ruin our lives again. So it's like, I
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: can't believe I'm giving any fear to this kid who
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: you know, on all Temper's purposes, he did not look
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: great in that game, but like Chad said, when he
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: had to make big plays, he was able to make it.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: So I like this matchup for Denver, not just offensively,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: but defense will be I like they're gonna be able
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: to do against fields. I think they're gonna be able
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: to give him problems. And this Pittsburgh offensive line, we
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: saw it against Atlanta. They're they're banged up, they got injuries.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: They really can't move the ball like they want to either.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: So let's buy a low one Denver here and sell
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: high on this Pittsburgh team in this spot chat.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: You know what, I'm making it my exact decision, the.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: Choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: Are you your honors?
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: Text to.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: Executive decision, Wow the rookie.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm okay. I was debating between this and another game,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: and no it's not the Bears game, as must be
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: the last game. And I think I've just convinced myself
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: and you've convinced me that I'm going with this as
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: the execut Yeah.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: It's definitely a good spot to take Denver.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football Chicago at Houston. Houston is a six
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. This one opened a three
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's now at six and a half.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think we know what we know yet about
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams and the Bears. You got to throw that
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: game away. It was just freaky in Week one. Yeah,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: he did all these bad things that he used to
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: do in college and can't get away with that in
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: the NFL. The scrambling back, the throwing off his back foot.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: It was just a bad game for him, and the
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: CJ was CJ like. The Texans were aggressive, they won
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: on the road and a vision against a really well
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: coached team. I don't really have a strong opinion here.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: I said it Sunday night.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: I would have taken Houston at minus six, minus six
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: and a half.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, this sumber will keep going up. Now.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: I think you're right, Chack. Now the dust is settle.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: We've had time to relax.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: A little bit, probably overrating a little bit.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: On this Houston team just because the Beary's defense is
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: really good. But my fear of Chat is like, Okay,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: if CJ's in his back and he's cooking a little bit,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: this game is totally overfast. Because you just can't can't
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: expect no Caleb Williams to really step up in these
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: kind of moments. He just has so much to learn
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: and he is learning on the fly here. So yeah,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 3: for us, this this makes sense of we're passing this
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: one just because this is a weird number. And again
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 3: everyone's gonna be teasing this with the Eagles, like this
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: is going to be the chrukiest Sunday Night and Monday
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: Night two team teaser of the season. So as wish
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: I want to shot on it, it already hit in
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: Week one. Like everyone was teasing the Lions with the
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: forty nine ers and they're like, well, I'm taking them
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: through zero and getting them at a plus number. It's like, yeah,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: I would love to tell you're an idiot. You're a
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: winner though, So yeah, that's this one. This one will
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: keep it moving. We both want to take the Bears,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: we know, we just we just can't do it because
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: we're just so terrified of the Texans.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Monday Night Football, Speaking of Atlanta, Atlanta Philly six
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, the Eagles are like, look.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: Producer Tito showed a great clip from the Falcons game
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: of Kirk Cousins dropping back to throw and basically not
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: being able to plant office reconstructed achilles. He threw one
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: hopper off of one leg. We expect rust the Steelers
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: D line and the edge dominated a really great Falcons
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: offensive line. This line has moved two and a half
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: points towards the Eagles. Simon, and this is our second
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: luck side of the week. It would have been my
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: exac decision. Feel like we got to take the Falcons.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: We do, but let's wait and see. Evan will have
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: some numbers for us. I feel like in his career
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: he has not done well in these spots, Kirk coming
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: to Philadelphia in these prime time games. The question here
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 3: with Kirk is this man can't move. What's the ego's
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 3: only true strength on the D line. There are two
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: D tackles who push up the middle, Jalen Carter Jordan Davis.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 3: That's a terrible match for them. Next week Kirk gets
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs and you know, guess who's coming up the
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: middle of there.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: You know Christians.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: So it's just like he's gonna get back to back
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: weeks of really talented D.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: Lions coming up the middle.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: So the movement here feels warrant to compare to a
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: lot of the other lines because people did have high expectations.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 3: I moved him down in my own ratings and moved
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 3: him down number wise with Kirk just because he is
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: not the Kirk. We saw in the Vikings, right, this
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: is Kirk in a new offense, getting comfortable, and they're
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: really dealing with baby gloves. Right, everything is a little predetermined,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: like if he was in shotgun and it was like
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: basically a guarantee he was going to drop back and pass.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: If he's in you know, underneath center, he was gonna
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: hand it off. And it was just like they were
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 3: literally dictating exactly what they were gonna do in Pittsburgh
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: by the second half, just dominate him because they knew
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: exactly what plays they were gonna run if it was
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: gonna be run her pass, which is just like I
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: can't believe that happened at the NFL levels.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: It's pretty mind boggling. So Chad's right. Professional wise, it's
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: just like the Bears.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: It's like everything in my body's telling me to take
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: this other side, especially the six and a half.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: But it's like, you know, is this moved enough? Should
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: call this? Not be up to seven at this point.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: It's just I feel like we already know for a
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: fact the Eagles are going to put up thirty points.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: Is Kirk kind of get us to twenty fours? That's
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: the question here. So I'm with Chad. I'll pass on
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: this one for now. Hopefully we come back Thursday, this
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: will be seven. Now I'll be able to take this
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: Atlanta side.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The one thing that's interesting to me about this
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: game versus the Steelers game, I think the Steelers are
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: much better on the edge than the Eagles are.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, no doubt.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: I do think like the strength of the Falcons offensive line,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: which is one of the best in the league, is
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: their right guard in their center. So if there's any
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: spot where they can match up well with the Eagle strengths,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: it's the center of the line, which gives Bejon a
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: better chance to get to the edge. I agree like
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: it's a scary game. That's why I didn't ultimately pull
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: the trigy ground exact decision. But it is a luck
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: game if we're looking for if we're looking for reasons.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: And before we hop off, Chad, the Miami Dolphins are
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: up to minus two and a half now against the
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: Bills on Thursday night, So grabbed the two if.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: You can moving.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: Because we're saying it. We say it, we say it here,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: it happens there. It's like broadcast news. It's like you
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: and I are are Albert Brooks and the rest of
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: the world is William Hurt. I'm referencing a movie from
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: the eighties. I don't care, doesn't matter. You know what.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: The old heads are going to get it. They're gonna
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: be like I appreciate check.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: Here you go.
• 1:12:19
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• 1:12:22
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• 1:13:09
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