Latest / The Fourcast / Ukraine peace talks: what do Russia and US really want?

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Ukraine peace talks: what do Russia and US really want? · The Fourcast

0:00
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
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So the US says that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia must
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be fair, enduring and acceptable to all the parties involved.
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Not that all the parties like Ukraine itself, only the
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Europeans were invited to the first round of the talks.
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No one is being sidelined, said the US Secretary of State Marco
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Rubio. But other winners only going to
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be the US and Russia. Will America cash in on
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Ukraine's natural resources? Will Russia be brought in from
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the cold internationally? And who or what are the
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so-called irritants that the US says need to be addressed in the
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bilateral relationship between Moscow and Washington?
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With me to discuss all this is Bronwell Maddox, the director of
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the international think tank Chatham House, and our
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international editor, Lindsay Hilson.
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Welcome to you both. Thank you.
0:49
It's extraordinary how quickly extraordinary things become the
0:52
new normal. And someone said to me earlier,
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oh, not that much has come out of this meeting in Saudi Arabia.
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But the fact that you've got Lavrov facing the chap that
1:02
Trump used to describe as Little Marco, you know, across the
1:05
table, and of course all the other people involved is just a
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bit of a, you know. Extraordinary sight.
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I mean, the pictures coming out, as you said, Marco on one side,
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Lavrov on the other, Saudis at the end of the table.
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Just the fact that those three nations are getting together and
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trying to solve a crisis without, as you said, without
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the people in the crisis in the room is extraordinary.
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Hosted by the Saudis. You know, let's not forget this.
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The Saudis were shown not so long ago for what Mohammed bin
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Salman, you know, allegedly ordered to be done to the
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journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul.
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And here they are hosting this peace summit.
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And you've got Lindsay in the in the the shape of Sergei Lavrov,
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that Bloodhound of diplomacy, one of the most experienced
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diplomats on the planet. And I think that that's one of
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the issues, because the Russians are extremely experienced in the
1:57
art of diplomacy, in the art of manipulation.
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I was talking to somebody a few months ago, a Ukrainian who had
2:03
negotiated with them during the Minsk, of course, and who went
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through all the tricks of the trade that they played.
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Now President Trump likes to think that he's the man who can
2:13
negotiate. And it's very interesting that
2:15
his friend Steve Witkov, who's the real estate entrepreneur,
2:20
he's put him on the and he's. The Middle East envoy, but not
2:23
dealing with the Middle East edition.
2:24
Well, I think there's. Purpose Envoy.
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He's the go to, he's the go to man.
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And maybe he is a good negotiator.
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I don't know. It's perfectly possible that he
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is. But I think that you, you look
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at the experience on the Russian side and you look at the
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determination on the Russian side and we know what they want.
2:43
They want to come back on the world stage.
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They want all the sanctions lifted, and then they have all
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the secondary things like, you know, obviously they want to
2:51
control Ukraine, then they want to get NATO to go back.
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They have a very clear set of goals, which they're moving to
2:58
step by step by step. What do the Americans want?
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It's not completely clear what they want, but one of the
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interesting things is that they talked today in the readout of
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the meeting that they talked about economic as well as
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political outcomes. And that, of course, is the way
3:16
that President Trump thinks. Robin, I think what we know,
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what Trump wants at the end of this, which is the Nobel Peace
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Prize, I think he does actually want that.
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And he wants to be able to go down in history as the guy who
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forged some kind of peace. But we also know from the way
3:28
that he conducted talks with Kim Jong Un of North Korea the first
3:32
time he was in power. He's great at the photo op and
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then the follow up not so much. I think that's right.
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The best joke in this Munich Security Conference at the
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weekend not full of jokes was from Radical Sikorsky, the
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Polish defence secretary saying, ah, we Europeans do control the
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Nobel Peace Prize. But it's a very good question
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what Trump wants. I completely agree with Lindsay
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that the Trump who wants to be the great winner is in danger of
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being the big loser from this. Because if the things you want
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take him, you immediately into his psychology.
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Does he want to be liked? Does he want doesn't like
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bloodshed, doesn't like war, wants all this to end.
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These are mysterious things because the US looks like it is
4:13
giving up a lot of advantages it had and giving up some of the
4:16
best cards it had to play like Ukraine not be could it Ukraine
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one day be in NATO and so on. I mean, this is interesting,
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isn't it, Because we talk about Lavrov being that, you know,
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seasoned diplomat even before his seasoned diplomacy, you
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know, was, was, you know, bore fruit at the table last week.
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The Americans seem to have given up their trump cards with the
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Russians and of course they deny this officially, but what's
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going on there? Do you think?
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Why would they give all that stuff away?
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You know the author of The Art of the Deal or the co-author
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and. As many said, including the
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German defence minister, this is not the art of the deal, this is
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the art of the exit. So they gave away their two best
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cards. Could Ukraine be in NATO and
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could American troops be in Ukraine to protect it?
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I think it is about a quick resolution, but you put your
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finger on it on something important.
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I think when you talked about the economics of this, someone
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has said to Donald Trump, Mr. President, you've got to worry a
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little bit about the economy and this thing called the deficit
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because he suddenly started talking some quarters about
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inflation, but particularly about how to get money back from
5:19
the world. And so suddenly this drive to
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get minerals from Ukraine, to get money back from Europe to,
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to get Ukraine to pay for its own defence.
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But that's always been a trumpet session, hasn't it?
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I mean, he always wants something in return for
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something else. That's part of his transactional
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nature. Just correct me if I'm wrong,
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Lindsay. I thought it was Zelensky who
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originally offered up Ukraine's so-called rare earth minerals in
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in the hope of kind of, you know, assuaging the Americans.
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Is that right? My understanding is that he
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mentioned it, but he was rather taken aback by the alacrity with
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which the Americans then went for it.
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It was. It was offered explicitly, so he
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did formally. It was several weeks ago, but he
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he suggested that it would be in return for American defence,
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quite explicit. Yeah, as opposed.
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And that's not happening. For the future, instead of which
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the Americans appropriated this and said OK, we'll have that as
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payment for the past. Which seems to me is an
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indication of how sort of loose the Americans are about all
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this, that they say that they want all these rare earths.
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And rare earths are important minerals.
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Matt knows I can bore for Britain on rare earths, but
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please. Don't.
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The point about rare earths is they have rare earths in
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America. There is a mine in California
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where they are mining rare earths, but the problem is they
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can't process them. So where do you think they send
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them to be processed? Go on guess.
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I don't know Europe so much, China, of course.
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They send them to China because China controls 90% of the
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processing capability. So that's the problem that the
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Americans have with rare earth and the idea that you can just
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suddenly go into Ukraine and start digging the rare earth,
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about 20% of which are on the Russian side of the current
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line, by the way, and that you could quickly make a profit out
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of it. It's just not like.
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That So do you think Zelensky said that because he thought
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that would be one way of getting Americans to help him recapture
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some territory? Because that's all the the rare
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answer. He's been trying to, if you'd
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like, shape a negotiation, get it started in some ways.
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But one thing he's been saying for weeks now, I want a security
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guarantee. What could he put into onto the
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table to get that? And it's really interesting that
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when just going back to last week, very briefly, the day that
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Hexif, you know, was was reading the riot act to Brussels for the
7:34
first time on Wednesday, the day of the phone call between Trump
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and Putin was also the day that Scott Besant, the Treasury
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Secretary, was in Kiev, obviously talking about rare
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earth minerals and money. You know, and guess who the
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Russians sent in today, You know, the negotiation, you know,
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on the day in Saudi Arabia, they sent in the head of their
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sovereign wealth fund, Kiril Dmitriev.
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So obviously everyone is getting the the message here that
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there's money to be made. And what he said at the end of
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the talks was, oh, because of the sanctions on Russia,
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American companies have lost $300 billion.
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So he's obviously trying to appeal directly to President
8:12
Trump by saying you've got to lift the sanctions because it's
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American companies are suffering.
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What do we actually know about the day of the, you know, the
8:20
first round of talks in Saudi Arabia?
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What has been decided? What has not yet been decided?
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Bronwyn. Not very much seems to have come
8:26
out, not very much may have happened there.
8:28
So they're beginning to pitch them as the beginning of the
8:30
beginning. We just warm up but but
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delighted to meet each other again after these mysterious
8:36
years of chill. OK.
8:38
Any red lines that? Were emerged.
8:40
They were positive, upbeat and constructive.
8:42
I thought you'd like to know that that's from I'm.
8:44
So reassured. That's from Steve Vitkov, who
8:48
the the President Trump's real estate envoy.
8:51
Look, I nothing very specific has come out, but it's quite
8:54
interesting that both Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State
8:57
and Mike False, they are seen as how should I put it just
9:02
slightly more on normal is that I'm allowed to say that they are
9:06
they have a less. They have a.
9:09
Less extreme view than Pete Hegg says they are the good cop as
9:14
opposed to the bad cop. And so they were trying to
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reassure Europe and Ukraine, say nothing would be decided and
9:19
obviously Ukraine had to be part of discussions and so did Europe
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because Europe had sanctions on Russia and Europe would have to
9:25
lift sanctions if things were agreed.
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So they had to be part of it. So they did row back to some
9:30
extent on some of the more extreme statements that we've
9:33
we've seen in the last week. So one thing I've heard quite
9:35
interesting from Washington last week is that Mike Walter was
9:37
also at the table, National Security advisor, Florida
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congressman, you know, much more interested in China than he is
9:44
in Russia or Europe. You know, is, is not that
9:47
popular in the White House at the moment because he apparently
9:49
tried to hire someone onto his staff who used to work for USAID
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and, and for, you know, a Democrat around USAID.
9:58
So in this sort of tribal atmosphere of the White House,
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that didn't go down particularly well.
10:02
And the guy who's probably really got the president's ear
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of all those 3 little Marco, you know, Mike Walls is Steve
10:08
Witkoff, the the real estate tycoon from the Bronx.
10:11
He's he's. Already got 1 success under his
10:13
belt in Trump's view, which is getting the ceasefire in Gaza if
10:17
that holds. Too, actually, because also he
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was sent to get Mark Fogle, this teacher who was in prison.
10:23
Which happened the day before the phone call, right?
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So that was the precursor to this.
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OK, so I'm still reeling in my mind from what happened in
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Munich last week. You were actually there.
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Just describe to us what that was like, especially when Vance
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stood up and gave his speech. What was the reaction like from
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the audience? Give us a second scene for us.
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It was it was stunned. Well, Vance, first place the
10:46
conference had given what the US delegation had told them, which
10:50
is the word that this was going to be about U.S. troops in
10:54
Europe and and the shock brace yourself for the shock that the.
10:57
Reduction troops. Yeah, I'm going to pull down the
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number of troops. Then the Wall Street Journal
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just a few hours before got news.
11:03
No, it's going to be more more cultural.
11:05
More cultural, cultural and they thought maybe talking about both
11:08
sides or no no they. They, they got the, they got the
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gist of it, which was this attack from the beginning on
11:15
Europe's cultural decline and the UK and Romania and for
11:20
shutting out right wing parties and for shutting our minds.
11:24
And I, I've talked to some of those round vats who said, look,
11:27
we really think we're, we're trying to, we, we love Britain,
11:30
we love your, we're trying to save it from itself, from the
11:33
people, The Who the voters have elected and so on.
11:36
And so anyway, in the hall, which is very intense, it's got
11:40
balconies. It's an old hall.
11:42
Which is the Bagoshaw Hotel. It is.
11:44
It is the very grand old grand and.
11:47
Old hotel and all these people and lots of them in military
11:50
uniform and ever and and. National dresses.
11:53
Cheap bags. Packed.
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No smoke, but packed, packed in sitting there and and overflow
11:59
rooms plural for the bad speech. And then this weird silence
12:03
afterwards and people sort of started clapping, but not
12:07
really. And it it and then they burst
12:09
out and went into the kind of coffee rooms and meeting rooms
12:11
and everything. And there was this explosion,
12:14
particularly from the Germans who said cannot believe this.
12:18
He he is, you know, using these words about telling us to
12:21
welcome the far right in Munich. We do not believe that he is not
12:25
ten days. Before an election.
12:27
Is interfering in our national elections.
12:29
We cannot believe he is innocent of the resonance of these words.
12:34
This is this is the end of the transatlantic relationship.
12:36
So. This is not just, you know,
12:38
growing apart and an acceleration that this is
12:40
actual, you know, a, a declaration of divorce of the
12:44
most brutal nature, Europe. 'S worst enemy is itself, says
12:48
you know, top Americans as they reach out their hands to Putin.
12:52
Europe must pay more to defend itself against Russia, who
12:56
America is now bringing in from the cold.
12:58
Bizarre messages, but cold as ice for Europe.
13:02
Lindsay, America's gone from being a in a kind of
13:07
insufficient solution to becoming a really big problem,
13:10
isn't it? Well, I.
13:10
Think, you know, I think what we got from the Vance speech was
13:13
that the way in our generation since Second World War and
13:19
during the Cold War enough was what we see is you have the idea
13:22
of the free world, which is America and Europe versus the
13:25
unfree world which is China and Russia.
13:28
And now what Vance said is that is not the division in the
13:31
world. The division is between those
13:35
who are infected by the woke mind virus, IE liberals and also
13:42
welcome immigrants against those who are against that.
13:46
Now Putin has for many years been talking about what he calls
13:50
family values. And that is what we would think
13:53
of as very conservative cultural, you know, it's part of
13:57
comes from the Orthodox Church and so on.
14:00
Anti-gay, anti feminist, anti transgender anti a lot of the
14:06
the things which are are seen as quite normal in Western
14:10
countries now. And so he's what I think Vance
14:13
did was he completely he completely reset who are them
14:19
and us, if you want to put it that way.
14:21
And he said that them they was Europe but.
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That's really important, isn't it?
14:27
Because he's drawing a Direct Line between the culture wars
14:30
that have dominated domestic American politics for years now
14:34
and putting them on a geopolitical, you know,
14:37
international level and saying. That and those people.
14:39
Have wondered why is the. Right of the political spectrum,
14:42
only these people who we suddenly find an affinity with,
14:45
whether it is in Hungary or wherever.
14:48
Only these people can save other cultures from themselves.
14:53
And what? I find so extraordinary about
14:54
that is that, you know, here's Vladimir Putin, who's invaded a
14:57
sovereign nation in Europe. You know, most Republicans
15:00
certainly of the George Bush, you know, senior and junior era
15:03
would have been utterly appalled by that.
15:05
I remember Mitt Romney debating with Barack Obama in 2012.
15:09
He was asked by George Stephanopoulos, what's the
15:11
biggest foreign policy challenge?
15:12
And Romney said it's Russia. And Obama laughed, actually
15:17
laughed at him at the time. And Romney turned out to be
15:19
right. But he's also Romney's
15:21
Republican. I mean, it was a Republican on
15:23
paper at least. But the fact that the culture
15:26
wars or the anti work alliance that links, you know, Vance,
15:31
Tucker Carlson and Vladimir Putin is more important than
15:35
your geopolitical, you know, principles or spheres of
15:40
influence. And then, of course, Vance left
15:42
that speech. He left all those German jaws on
15:45
the ground. And then he went to meet Alice
15:47
Weidel, the head of the Afd, who is, you know, for dinner.
15:51
So. Yeah, exactly.
15:52
For dinner. And he didn't meet the German
15:54
Chancellor, Olaf Schultz. He did not meet or have dinner
15:56
or eaten tea or cafe on kuchen with the head of the opposition
16:00
Mets. You know, who's who's going to
16:03
be probably the next chancellor. So, you know, this is all this
16:06
is important stuff, isn't it? I mean.
16:08
It is. It's a.
16:09
Declaration of war against the German establishment, if you
16:11
like German. And and beyond, I mean, if you
16:13
want to meet people even angrier than the Germans, talk to the
16:15
Canadians. I mean, probably the mildest.
16:17
I mean, just saying, you know, should we regard the US as an
16:20
enemy now? OK, so let's go back to Russia.
16:23
What are the Russians ultimately, What are they
16:26
prepared to put up with in Ukraine that the Ukrainians
16:30
might interpret as guarantees for their sovereignty and
16:33
security? Lindsay.
16:34
Was talking about a list. I think that list is getting
16:36
longer by the hour. They cannot believe the luck
16:38
that they have been given. So but the Ukrainians.
16:41
Will want something, weren't they?
16:42
Ukrainians are going to want want a security guarantee.
16:47
So Ukrainians would like Europeans, like Brits, French,
16:50
whatever, and Ukrainians to be there in presence.
16:53
They'd like the Americans as well.
16:55
At a minimum, they'd like Americans to say, OK, we'll
16:57
provide air cover. But I don't think Russians are
17:00
going to put up with that, not in the first round of
17:01
negotiations. They're going to say no, We said
17:03
no to Ukraine being part of NATO.
17:06
Well, that's NATO forces in Ukraine, not going to have that.
17:09
How about Chinese, how about Indians, how about Russians, all
17:13
this, all this. So they're going to push very
17:15
hard for that, those kind of forces.
17:18
So I think that you know what, it's very instructive.
17:20
I don't speak Russian, but I, I do have a look at Russian
17:24
television every morning at the moment.
17:26
And you don't need to speak Russian to see the Glee on the
17:30
faces of the presenters. You know, they, I mean, all
17:34
their Christmases have come at once.
17:37
You know, they are so excited and you know, they, they're
17:40
having all these sort of marvellous, you know, all these
17:43
graphics with Putin striding along and on the phone and Trump
17:47
and best of friends and all of this kind of stuff.
17:50
So that tells you how they are greeting all of this.
17:54
But I think that in the, in the longer term, what they, what do
17:58
they really want? They want to control the
18:01
government in Kiev. They want a a supplicant
18:06
government, a puppet government in Kiev as they have in Minsk,
18:11
in Belarus. What they want is those three
18:14
countries, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, basically to be 1
18:17
union. Now that is something which
18:21
obviously the Ukrainians do not want, the Europeans are dead set
18:26
against and that is why Ukraine has been fighting and America
18:30
has been supporting them. But I think that Russia now
18:33
looks and thinks they might just get it.
18:35
Do you think the. European could ever be persuaded
18:38
or strong armed into accepting a kind of Ukrainian vessel state
18:43
of Russia. Well, what it depends on you.
18:46
What is it going to do? It depends on what is the
18:48
outcome of this Russia. Pretty close to the rest of
18:52
Europe. And Russia said, oh, we don't
18:55
mind Ukraine being part of the EU.
18:57
You can see how it might use that as a Trojan force, get
19:00
Ukraine into the EU and then put its own government in.
19:02
I'm sure that's part of the 11 of the strands of planning, do
19:06
you think? Because of course, the whole
19:07
thing started with Maidan in 2014, which you know, you and I
19:10
both covered. Lindsay, don't know if you were
19:12
there as well, but it was all about Europe and not getting too
19:14
close to Europe. Have the Russians now changed
19:17
their tactic? And are they saying, well,
19:18
actually it's quite useful, you know, look at Orban, look at
19:21
the, you know, look at what he's doing inside the EU tent.
19:24
Do you think that's a new Russian strategy?
19:26
I think. Lindsay caught the spirit of it,
19:28
that Putin really has this obsession, which goes back
19:31
decades of getting the key Russian heartlands back, making
19:35
Russia great again. And that's what this is about.
19:37
And he wants Ukraine, does he? Want Poland?
19:40
If he can get it, you know, it's it's to do with what, what can
19:43
you, what, what can you get? I mean, clearly he one of the
19:49
main things is that Ukraine may never join NATO, which President
19:53
Trump has given him for free. Very nice.
19:55
He'll pocket that one. But then amongst the people who
19:59
are the most worried at the moment or frightened at the
20:02
moment are the leaders of the Baltic states.
20:05
Because obviously they see Russia on their doorstep and
20:09
Russia saying, well, they shouldn't be members of NATO and
20:12
they. But also see an American
20:13
government which is very likely to withdraw American troops in
20:16
the Baltic states, but just. To be clear, so one of the ideas
20:20
floated both of the weekend in Munich, but also the the summit
20:24
in Paris, the emergency summit was European boots on the
20:27
ground. Now the Germans didn't like it
20:29
without American security guarantees, the Brits first
20:32
offered it. Keir Starmer valiantly, you
20:34
know, there he was saying, come on, you know, lads, let's go to
20:37
Kiev. I mean, we now know that the the
20:40
deputy, the deputy Russian foreign minister, I don't know
20:42
if he speaks for the Kremlin. I assume he does said no
20:44
European boots on the ground, whatever their role is.
20:47
So whether they're officially part of NATO or they're
20:50
peacekeepers or a trip by call it what you like, these are
20:53
fundamentally different positions.
20:54
Yes, they are. Which one?
20:55
Prevails well. Each side's trying it on at the
20:58
moment the Russians are trying it on.
21:02
They're scooping up what they're being offered by Americans.
21:05
And of course, Ukraine can always say no and Europe's can
21:07
say no for these things. This has got some way to play
21:10
out. But Russians, the Russians are
21:12
going to push this very, very hard.
21:14
So it's a bit premature of Europeans to be saying, oh, how
21:16
many boots can we get on the ground when there isn't even a
21:19
deal to let them there? If the rupture gets really bad
21:23
between the EU and the US, Lindsay, is it possible, do you
21:27
think, that the Europeans will deploy peacekeepers on the
21:31
ground in Kiev, you know, with Ukraine's blessing, without the
21:35
kind of guarantees that they need from the Americans, but
21:39
have them there to say basically to everyone, Europe has a voice
21:42
in this and a state. I think that that.
21:43
Would be extremely dangerous thing to do because for a start
21:46
you've got 1000 kilometre frontline, which is not easy to
21:49
police anyway and secondly, you know you do that and then two
21:55
British soldiers get killed what will public what will you know
21:59
the public mood be in the UK about that and and it'd be.
22:04
Quite easy just to have a mistake even even.
22:06
And even without mistakes, I mean, the Polish defence
22:08
Minister so made, the foreign secretary made.
22:12
I think the key point was you can't put troops there without
22:14
being prepared to go to war with Russia.
22:16
Yeah, I. Mean we've seen peace look what
22:18
far you're. Going to take it, but we know
22:19
from the. Yugoslavia experience what?
22:20
This looks like. Yeah.
22:21
What? It looks like is, it looks like
22:23
Dutch peacekeepers watching as 7000 men and boys are
22:26
slaughtered as Srebrenica. And you cannot have that again.
22:29
So you can only have peacekeepers only work if
22:32
they're empowered to fight back should one side or the other
22:36
destroy the peace. Now, that is very difficult
22:39
because then if you have, and this is a real complicated
22:41
problem because if you have NATO troops who are supposedly
22:44
enforcing the peace and Russia attacks NATO troops, well, where
22:49
does that come on Article 5? Does you know what kind, What
22:53
kind of response do you expect from that?
22:55
Just one. Other point here, I mean, the,
22:58
the red line for the Russians does seem to be that Ukraine has
23:02
to be part of, you know, the Roschemia, the Russian world.
23:05
It cannot be its own independent sovereign state with its with
23:08
its own borders defended by its own viable army.
23:11
That seems to be a Russian Red line.
23:13
The red line, if we take the American rhetoric from Marco
23:17
Rubio, for instance, at face value and the Europeans is
23:21
Ukraine has to be an independent sovereign state that gets to
23:23
look after its own borders. So that's the most fundamental
23:26
point where these two differ. So it's quite possible, is it
23:30
not, that this might actually just fall apart at some stage?
23:33
I don't know, the Russians have been given so much.
23:35
I think they've got every interest in playing this out a
23:38
bit to see how far they can get. So even if they gave way on that
23:41
one for for the moment, but tried some other things that
23:45
constrain Ukraine. OK, No, you know, no troops
23:47
there. No, it can't arm, no all this
23:50
talk that's floating around. Could Ukraine ever host nuclear
23:52
weapons again? Because of course it gave it's
23:55
it's nuclear weapons under an American guarantee just shut
23:58
down done all that stuff try and undermine the electoral process
24:02
and get their own government in there in a few years time they
24:06
can play a a long game. I'm.
24:08
Just channelling Donald Trump, who's in my head at the moment,
24:11
and he really wants that Nobel Peace Prize.
24:13
He's not going to get that Nobel Nobel Peace Prize.
24:15
You know, I mean, he probably won't get it anywhere, but he
24:17
certainly won't get it if Vladimir Putin walks into St.
24:20
Sophar Cathedral, you know, in Kiev as the Conqueror.
24:24
And there are, you know, Ukrainian bodies, you know, on
24:27
the outskirts of the city, as there have been before.
24:28
Yeah. But that's because that's a
24:29
Biden moment he doesn't want to repeat.
24:31
No, it's not gonna happen. It's not.
24:32
That's not how it's gonna. It's not gonna happen.
24:34
Also I how can you be so sure? I would also.
24:37
Say, remember that Barack Obama got the Nobel Peace Prize for
24:40
doing absolutely nothing for not.
24:42
Being called George Bush? Yes, exactly.
24:44
And so, you know, one shouldn't take this stuff too seriously,
24:47
but I think the Bronwyn's right in that we're talking about a
24:49
much more subtle game now. We're talking about the control
24:52
of Ukraine. I think that the Russians have
24:54
pushed almost as far as they can militarily for the moment.
24:58
They would love to have a bit of a pause for a few years while
25:02
they re arm and you know, re equip about them.
25:04
Being really on the back foot just a few months ago about them
25:07
having only six months more fight and that kind of all of
25:09
that sort of stuff. So they would love.
25:10
To have a little bit of a rest and then they can build up.
25:12
So if they need need inverted commas to fight again, they can.
25:16
But in the meantime, there's all sorts of ways of playing
25:18
asymmetric warfare. We know it goes on all the time,
25:21
doesn't. And the Russians are very good.
25:23
At this, they're very they really.
25:24
Are and their main way would they would want to get it.
25:28
So President Zelensky, he's in a very difficult situation.
25:33
He is admired more on the outside than the inside.
25:36
Last time when I was in in Ukraine, which was in December,
25:40
he really did seem to be less popular than he had been before.
25:43
And it's not at all clear that he would be re elected.
25:46
And the other thing is one should never forget that Ukraine
25:49
is still a society which is plagued by corruption.
25:53
And it is perfectly possible for somebody to be elected and then
25:57
to succumb to temptation. So those are the kind of games
26:02
that Russia will be wanting to play, and isn't it fascinating?
26:04
That one of the demands raised by, I think, Trump in his phone
26:08
call with Putin was Ukraine should have elections.
26:11
The Americans are obsessed with these elections.
26:13
Now, is that because that's one way of getting rid of Zelensky,
26:16
who could be an irritant, you know, in all this?
26:19
Yes, absolutely. And that's exactly the point.
26:22
And that, you know, this is Russia's game.
26:23
It's not a particularly hidden one.
26:25
They've tried war. They thought it'd be 3 days.
26:27
It wasn't. It's three years now, but they
26:29
can see another route through final one.
26:31
Very. Quickly, I think in the State
26:33
Department readout of the of the talks in Saudi Arabia, they
26:36
talked about irritants between the two nations.
26:39
What are they talking about? Edward Snowden, for instance,
26:41
could be well, it could be Edward.
26:43
Snowden, I mean, because I mean, Trump is very, he's obsessed
26:46
with that, I mean. When I spoke to Trump years ago,
26:47
he was obsessed with Edward Snowden.
26:49
Well, he wanted to get. It back and hanging trees, you
26:51
know. So I mean, you know, you never
26:52
know, it might be other people that are, you know, might be
26:55
other issues, might be financial stuff.
26:56
Oh, I wonder if the. Irritants of the US, we're the.
27:00
Irritants. Exactly.
27:01
I'm about. To say it's Europe which is the
27:03
you're an irritant. Lindsay, you're not an irritant.
27:05
OK. Lindsay Hilson, Brahman.
27:07
Alex, thank you very much to both of you for coming in.
27:09
That's it from this edition of THE Forecast.
27:12
Hope you enjoy it. See you next time.