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Episode 33 - 4/30/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 33 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena
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guys. And also it's not only the last
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day of April, but it's the eve of my birthday.
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That's right, May 1st. Today is my last day as a 36
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year old. I can't believe it.
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I'll be turning 37 tomorrow, so I'm excited for a big pre b-day
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night in the Betting arena with you guys.
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See if we can cash some tickets and steam into a big birthday
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day for me on May 1st. Again, 37.
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Boy, do the years fly by. I feel like I was 17 the other
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day playing baseball with my boys in high school and and look
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at me now, 37 years old. But anyway, I can't complain,
1:09
but we got a big, big pod for you today, guys.
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I have a six pack of sweats that I'm excited to break down with
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you and share Forte, including four Major League Baseball bats
1:19
including one in particular that I can't believe this line is
1:22
getting steamed so much. It seems gross.
1:24
That's the team. That's played very poorly this
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year, but man, the wise guys seem to like him tonight.
1:28
So that's where I'm going to go for MLB bets as well as an NHL
1:32
bet. And I'm going to give you an
1:33
update here on a series price that we bet prior to the series
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starting, which is looking, knock on wood, pretty good right
1:39
now. And also I'm going to finish up
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today's pod with an NBA bet. This is going to be a player
1:43
prop which is going to come to us directly from the analytics
1:46
of rhythm which has a very good angle on this particular player
1:50
to go under his points and rebounds combination here for
1:53
tonight. So 6 pack of sweats, 4 MLB
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sides, one NHL side, one NBA player prop.
1:59
Now looking back toward last night, guys unfortunately
2:01
couldn't get our week start off on our on the right Note 2 and 4
2:05
-, 2 units. I had a big one with the stars
2:08
late night, really needed that one because we didn't have many
2:10
breaks go our way prior to that. But stars came through with a
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big four to two win. Remember we saw that big kind of
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dog to fave or pick them to fave steam move in favor of Dallas.
2:19
Weird series there. It's tied two to two and the
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road team is 4 and O in that series.
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Then we did get a plus one dog which was nice.
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The Washington Nationals around plus 120 came through for the
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team and had a clean sweep there four and O in the series against
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Miami. But that was frustrating last
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night were those NBA overs I mean the Celtics over and you
2:37
can look at it and say man it was a low scoring series what
2:40
what are we doing taking the over What idiots we are.
2:42
I don't really think we're that that much, that that stupid.
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I don't think we're that much of an idiot here because number
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one, we beat the closing line on that Celtics game.
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We got over two O 3 1/2. You see where it closed 2O four
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and a half, one book closed two O 5.
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So we kind of did our part, predicted the move, anticipated
2:59
the move and bet it had a better number.
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But just nothing offensively going from the Miami Heat.
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And if you look at the second quarter, I actually missed and I
3:07
DVR the game and watch it later because we had our our Monday
3:09
night softball league play last night, which you can tell I'm
3:12
getting old because I feel like I pulled like a hamstring or
3:15
something. I'm dying here in my right leg
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today. Talk about getting old every
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day. But anyway, the second quarter
3:20
of the Celtics in the Heat game, they scored a combined 31
3:24
points. So every other quarter was well
3:26
above that second quarter, you know cold as ice couldn't get
3:29
the over, then the Pelicans over, same sort of thing.
3:32
You know, we had a pretty good number on that Pelicans over.
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I want to say let me double check to to my notes from
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yesterday. But OK, see, we got over two O 6
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1/2 for two O 7, it closed two O 8 1/2 for two O 9.
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So that's what's frustrating about sports betting you you
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anticipate the move, you beat the market, you get a good
3:48
number, you get closing line value, but the teams just don't
3:51
show up for you. So tells us that we're right.
3:53
We're right there, We're finger on the pulse.
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We're reading the market correctly.
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We're just not getting the breaks that we want.
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And then, unfortunately, Yankees get blanked to nothing.
4:01
And the Mets were kind of a heartbreaker there because they
4:03
had the lead much of the game and gave it up late.
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So 2 and 4 -, 2 units, let's see if we can claw our way back
4:09
today and get back to our winning ways on Episode 33 of
4:13
the All Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast powered by
4:16
Rhythm. So without further ado, let's
4:18
dive right in to a big MLB slate here for tonight.
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And I 'cause I have 4 bets for you, and I want to start off
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with a team that probably I should have been betting against
4:26
since day one. No one's got a crystal ball, but
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I I feel like I've only bet against them maybe once or twice
4:31
this year. I should probably do it more
4:32
often. You know who I'm talking about
4:34
fading? The Chicago White Sox.
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So I'm going to go with the Minnesota Twins tonight.
4:38
Twins are at the White Sox we saw yesterday, Minnesota.
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They posted a what was it? I want to say, yeah, three to
4:45
two. They won as a like -160 favorite
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at the White Sox yesterday. Back at it for today.
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Now the pitching match up for today we have Simeon Woods
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Richardson, a righty going for Minnesota.
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He's been good to start the year one and O 2.45 ERA.
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Meanwhile, Mike Soroka, Remember at one point he was really good.
5:02
He was a young stud for the Atlanta Braves and has fallen on
5:05
hard times since he went to the White Sox.
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Not much has gone his way, but Soroka's O and three with a 6.83
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ERA this season. Just from a pitching standpoint,
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you kind of like this Minnesota spot.
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And actually if you look at this pitcher, Simeon Woods
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Richardson, he actually just pitched against Chicago.
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Was it his last turn out? It was a six to three win.
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He went five innings and only gave up two runs.
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You look at Soroka, this guy's been getting lit up.
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Hopefully that continues here tonight.
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But Soroka went five innings, 2 earned runs.
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His last time against Minnesota was the game he lost against
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Simeon Woods Richardson, but prior to that gave up five runs
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to the Phillies, five runs to the to the Reds, 4 to Cleveland,
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4 to Detroit. So hopefully we can get the bats
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of Minnesota to light up Soroka here tonight.
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But it's not just a blind fate of the White Sox.
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This is a game where the market is also with our with our Fate
5:54
of the White Sox system match play here.
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Because Minnesota opened this game as low as a like -155 -,
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160 Rd. favorite. We've now seen Minnesota get bet
6:05
up to around -170 some books even a little bit higher around
6:08
-175 S Right off the bat we got pretty good steam in favor of
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the Minnesota Twins. Now the Twins would match a
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couple betting systems that I like.
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One in particular would be road favorites.
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Very simple system, but Rd. favorites this year in Major
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League Baseball are 93 and 5862% with a 9% ROI.
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If you had bet 100 bucks on every Rd. favorite this year,
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you're up almost $1400. That's been a good angle.
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Now fading of the White Sox. Fading of the White Sox is now
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22 and 6 on the year, 79% with a 21% ROI.
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If you'd put 100 bucks against the White Sox every game, you're
6:44
up nearly $900 this year. So that's in our back pocket.
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But then also you'll get aside from the steam in the system
6:51
matches, Minnesota's playing really good ball right now.
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They've won eight straight. They're five and O head to head
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against the White Sox this season.
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They have the better bats starting 234 versus 2O8 for
7:01
Chicago and also better team pitching staff, 3.91 ERA verse
7:05
five point O2. And a little feather in the cap
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of the Twins for tonight is the fact that their stud player
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Carlos Correa, who was a big free agent signing a couple
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years ago from Houston, he's back in the lineup.
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He was banged up, he was on the injured list.
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He's back. He played last night.
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So you can say, hey, it's a blind fate of the White Sox, you
7:23
know, or you can say, yeah, we're fading the White Sox.
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But that's not the main reason. The main reason is that we got
7:27
big steam here on the Minnesota Twins.
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You know, -160 up to -170 -, 175 S Shop around guys.
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I was able to find the Minnesota Twins at -170.
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Let's go, Twinkies. Next one up.
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I tease this one because it doesn't make much sense.
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And yet that's really what makes me love it even more.
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Looking at the Guardians tonight visiting the Houston Astros,
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there's an 8:10 PM Eastern Time game.
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Now, the Guardians great record 19 and 9:00, but they did just
7:55
lose two or three against the Braves.
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They lost Sunday's series finale 4 to 3 and extras as a + 135 row
8:00
dog. You know the Astros?
8:02
Unbelievable. I don't know.
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It's more surprising. Guardians 19 and 9 or Astros 9
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and 19. They've just really struggled.
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Haven't been able to put it together this year, however,
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maybe they're turning it around a little bit.
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They just swept the two game series against the Rockies.
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Yeah, the Rockies aren't very good, but they did win that
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series finale 8 to 2 as a big -250 Rd. favorite.
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So for tonight's series opener, Cleveland is starting the
8:24
ageless wonder Carlos Carrasco, the righty veteran one and two
8:28
4.63 ERA. Meanwhile, Houston is going with
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Rady. Hunter Brown was O and four 9.68
8:34
ERA. So number one, we had this game
8:37
open at a very peculiar opener. I mean, this game opened around
8:40
Astros -140 with the Guardians around plus 1/20 and the public
8:45
is saying this is just makes no sense.
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If Cleveland in this spot is so bad or sorry, the Houston Astros
8:52
in this spot are so bad, only 9 and 19 on the year, why are they
8:56
opening as a favorite -140? And believe it or not guys,
8:59
they've been steamed up all the way to like -165 -, 170.
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I see a -, 175 out there. Why on earth is this line moving
9:07
so much toward Houston now searching for an injury?
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Is Jose Ramirez out? No.
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Couldn't really find anything. Maybe this is just a spot where
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the wise guys have been hammering Houston and saying
9:16
hey, even though it makes no sense because Cleveland's 19 and
9:19
9 and Astros are 9 and 19, even though it's so fishy.
9:23
Looks like wise guys are taking that fishy side with Houston.
9:25
Because why? Here's the other thing, guys.
9:27
Publix on the Guardians. They're saying this makes no
9:30
sense. Wrong team is favored.
9:31
Nearly 70% of bets are on the Guardians, yet the line's going
9:35
to the Houston Astros. So if Cleveland wins this game,
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it's like, don't overthink it. Take the better team getting
9:40
plus money. But if you've been betting in
9:42
this style for as long as I have, you learn to embrace plays
9:46
that don't make much sense. And this one doesn't make much
9:48
sense, which is why I like it. Especially.
9:50
You know, the line moving toward Hunter Brown, who's got an ERA
9:52
almost of 10 hopefully pitches? Well here tonight, but this line
9:55
is going to Houston, even though everyone's been Cleveland now,
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the Astros have the better bats. They're rating 264 versus 250
10:02
for Cleveland and also have a system match here when both
10:05
teams had a day off the previous day.
10:07
So both these teams were off yesterday, didn't play, take the
10:10
favorite. It's a very simple system, but
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it's 460 and two 8062% with a 3% ROI.
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And Houston does have that classic non division favorite
10:19
edge there with the lack of familiarity benefiting the
10:22
better team who is expected to win.
10:24
So again, if Cleveland's great record and Houston's terrible,
10:27
why did Houston open as a favor and become more of a favorite?
10:30
I don't know. But I do know that wise guys are
10:32
at Houston and I always want to be on the sharp side of every
10:35
place. So I'm going with the Houston
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Astros. So fishy, so expensive.
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Makes no sense. That's why I like it.
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Give me the Stroh's shop around. I got the Astros a little bit
10:44
earlier today around -165. Keep on cruising.
10:48
Another late game here. 9:38 PM Eastern Time.
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Philly and the Angels. I'm going with the Philadelphia
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Phills now. Last night we did see the Angels
10:56
win the opener 6:00 to 5:00. Angels, by the way, are now 11
11:00
and 18. They won last night's game as a
11:02
+ 130 home dog. I think it was Philly up early
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and then you had a comeback there with the Angels.
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But Phillies are 19 and 11. They're going to start Spencer
11:11
Turnbull tonight, who's two and O with a 1.33 ERA.
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Knock on Woody continues. He's been great thus far.
11:17
You know the Angels are going with lefty Tyler Anderson.
11:19
He's also been great two and three 1.78 ERA.
11:23
But this to me guys is all about the steam on Philly.
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The Phillies open around a -, 130 Rd. favorite.
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Phillies have now been bet up to -140.
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So line is moving toward Philly now they're getting 88% of bets,
11:35
90% of money. So again, this is a combination
11:38
of both public and sharp support.
11:39
One way action, really no let up here on the Angels or toward the
11:43
Angels. It's just consistent steam in
11:44
favor of Philly. And if you look at the Philly
11:47
advantages here, they have quite a few.
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One would be better bats hitting 254 versus 241 for the Halos,
11:54
better pitching staff, team ERA, 3.46 versus 5 point O, five
11:58
point O1. And in particular anytime a
12:01
lefty's on the bump, I want to know, hey, how does that team
12:03
hit lefties? And actually Phillies are really
12:05
good against southpaws. They're hitting 271 against
12:08
lefties. That's the 5th best average
12:11
against lefties in MLB. So hopefully the Philly line up
12:13
here can get to Anderson tonight.
12:15
Now for system matches, Got a couple here favorites off a
12:19
loss. Very simple.
12:20
You're expected to win today. You lost yesterday.
12:22
Bounce back and get back in the win column.
12:24
Those teams are 112 and 7460% this year with a 3% ROI.
12:30
Then you also have Rd. favorites.
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Just mention that with who was it with Minnesota a couple games
12:35
ago. But Rd. favorites 62 percent, 9%
12:38
ROI. Also, you look at home Rd.
12:40
splits. Phillies are nine and five on
12:41
the road, Angels 4:00 and 9:00 at home.
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Phillies plus 24 and run differential Los Angeles -35.
12:49
And we did see some under movement here.
12:51
Total was 9 down to 8 and a half, 55% bets, 78% money is on
12:56
the under but again you kind of missed that triggering number of
12:58
nine. You might be able to find if you
12:59
like the under 9 around a -, 115, -, 120.
13:02
But a lot of these shops are down to 8 1/2.
13:05
But also if you look at the fills in the spot classic
13:09
interleague favorite system match.
13:10
So the lack of familiarity hopefully benefiting the better
13:13
team was expected to win. So a little bit of steam on the
13:16
fills. Favorite awful loss Rd.
13:17
favorite. They hit lefties.
13:19
Let's go Phillies here. I'm on the Phills at -140.
13:23
Then last night of the night in Major League Baseball.
13:25
Let's go to the West Coast. I guess we're already on the
13:28
West Coast. We just talked the Halos.
13:29
Let's go to San Diego though. Which by the way, I'm going to
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go to San Diego around 4th of July.
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Me and the wife to visit her family who lives in San Diego.
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So I'm very much looking forward to that.
13:38
I'm actually looking at getting tickets to a Padres game.
13:41
I believe they're playing the D backs at the time.
13:43
So I've never been to Petco Field, Petco Park.
13:45
I'm looking forward to that. Also my favorite brewery which
13:49
is the Ballast Point brewery anyway and also got to go to
13:52
Coronado. Love going to Coronado but you
13:54
didn't hear from here come you didn't come here for my San
13:56
Diego. You know reviews here but
13:58
hopefully the Padres can come through for us tonight.
14:00
I'm on the pods. Padres here at home against
14:03
Cincinnati. We saw Cincinnati take the
14:05
opener last night. They're 16 and 13.
14:07
They won the opener 5:00 to 2:00 as running -1 O five row dog
14:11
rematch. Tonight the Reds are going with
14:12
rating Nick Martinez, who's O and one with a 5.48 ERA.
14:17
Meanwhile, the Padres 14 and 18 on the air.
14:19
They're going with Rady U Darvish, the veteran.
14:21
Oh, and one 4.18 ERA. But once again, this is all
14:25
about the steam. Like, if you like Houston,
14:28
you're going to like San Diego. Very similar because San Diego
14:30
opened as low as a -, 135 -, 140 home favorite.
14:35
The San Diego Padres now all the way up to -170 -, 175 at one
14:40
shop I'm looking at. And when I wrote about this game
14:43
for the Sharp report for vc.com earlier today, which you can
14:45
always check out for my Twitter page around noon Eastern Time,
14:49
the Padres were -155. So they've not only have they
14:53
did they get, you know, open as a favorite and get hammered
14:55
early overnight, early morning, but throughout the early morning
14:58
into the afternoon continued movement and steam on San Diego,
15:02
San Diego now up to again as high as -170 -, 175.
15:06
But if you look at some system matches here, Padres well first
15:09
with the bet split. 66% bets, 72% money.
15:13
So a little bit of low bets, higher dollars bet split in
15:16
their favor, better offense. The Padres hitting 250 versus
15:19
220 for Cincinnati favorites off a loss.
15:22
We mentioned that with quite a few matches today, but the
15:25
Padres are a favorite off a loss 60% three percent ROI.
15:28
Corey Blazer, nothing amazing, but he is a good home play.
15:30
Dump 55% to the home team historically and we do have some
15:34
correlative betting value. Favorite in a low total game
15:37
total in this game is 7 1/2. Now it is juiced up a little
15:39
bit. It looks like some liability on
15:41
the over here but favorite low total always a good thing.
15:44
Fear amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from
15:47
quote UN quote that better team. So the pods are matching with a
15:50
big steam move bunch of system matches as well as a correlative
15:54
betting fav low total. So I'm going with the fathers,
15:57
hopefully get it done for us again I got San Diego a little
16:00
bit earlier today around -155. Now you're looking at around a
16:03
-, 165, -, 170 for the Padres. So our four bets tonight, can we
16:08
get three of them? Minnesota, Houston, Philly and
16:12
San Diego. Now over to the NHL Because my
16:16
Boston Bruins can just brush aside the Leafs.
16:19
Then I put the Leafs and the leaf blower and end this series.
16:22
That's what I'm looking for tonight.
16:24
But the Bruins who are up three, one and again can win tonight
16:27
and finish the series, which I'm hoping that they do.
16:29
I'm playing them now #1 if you guys remember we mentioned a
16:32
series bet for this Toronto Boston series.
16:35
Got the Bruins at -125. Excuse me.
16:39
And part of the reason for that was goaltending and defense.
16:42
And that's really what we've seen thus far with Jeremy
16:44
Swayman being incredible. I'll tell you, just from a
16:46
Bruins standpoint as a fan going into this postseason, it was,
16:50
hey, are they going to do the platoon every other game?
16:52
Well, it looks like they came to their senses and said, hey, why
16:55
are we stubbornly sticking with the platoon when Jeremy Swayman
16:57
is playing incredible, like Dominic Koschek.
16:59
So Swayman is back in net for tonight and I like the Bruins.
17:03
Hopefully cash our series bet tonight, but I'm playing them on
17:06
the money line tonight as well. Now shop around.
17:08
I got the Bruins at -150, but what I like is that the Bruins
17:13
got steam pretty hard today. The Bruins opened as low as -135
17:16
again, now bet up to -150. And a couple reasons to like the
17:21
Bruins tonight in particular. One is the goaltending.
17:24
Now the Bruins are going to go with swimming as I mentioned and
17:26
now on the regular season 2.5 three goals against 9/16 save
17:30
percentage. But he's been in the heads of
17:33
Toronto, the Leafs for whatever reason they cannot solve
17:36
swimming. Hopefully that continues
17:37
tonight, but in the post season swimming is 3 and O with a 1.34
17:41
goals against. He's only given up four goals in
17:43
three games. So swimming has been the balls.
17:46
Now tell me it's not going to be Samsonov or Sampsonov, it's
17:50
going to be Jarrett Wall or wool for Toronto.
17:53
He came in relief of Sampsonov the last game.
17:56
This is a guy that I want to bet against hasn't started a game of
17:58
the post season. He's got a 2.94 goals against,
18:01
only a nine O 7 save percentage, so you have a great goal.
18:05
He was in the zone right now, swimming against a backup in a
18:07
desperation spot. And to make matters worse for
18:11
the Leafs is that Austin Matthews is questionable for
18:14
this game. He is going to be a game time
18:16
decision. He's had an illness, some kind
18:18
of virus. Something's going on with with
18:21
Matthews. We all know from game two in the
18:23
Bruins lost he made that incredible play.
18:24
It was a looped looped pass where he beat Charlie McEvoy and
18:28
had the game winner. Well, without Matthews, I mean
18:30
he totally changes his team. So will he play or will he not?
18:34
And then if he plays, how effective will he be?
18:36
But if you're giving me a questionable Matthews with a
18:39
Bruins team who's ready to close it out with a great goaltender,
18:41
I'm going to play that every time.
18:43
Now the Bruins also mention this as a reason to play the series
18:47
price, but defensively only giving up 2.7 goals a game
18:50
versus 3.2. Better penalty kill, 83% versus
18:53
77%. And you are likely going to see,
18:57
I believe, Derek Forebort tonight, who was a pretty good
18:59
defensive defenseman who has been injured and hopefully will
19:03
be a boost to the blue line. But we're holding that -125
19:06
series ticket. They're -1200 right now.
19:08
Let's cash that one and let's get the Bruins on the money line
19:12
to win this game tonight. I got the Bruins with some good
19:14
steam. -135 up to -150. Let's go bees whoa, oh, oh, oh,
19:20
oh. Let's go bees -150.
19:26
Now over to the NBA to finish up the pod here for tonight.
19:30
Now I was tempted to look at some totals tonight, but of
19:34
course with my luck recently I say hey let's take a night off
19:38
of totals. But there's one player prop
19:40
tonight that caught my eye. Now this player prop is brought
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and game pics. And if you haven't done it yet,
19:58
I want you to go download the Rhythm app.
20:01
Because I try to pick out a rhythm bet each day.
20:03
But here's the thing. There are dozens of them from
20:06
the NBA game bets, player props all across all the different
20:09
sports, golf. I mean, you could have a field
20:11
day with the rhythm app. So my whole goal is to get you
20:13
introduced to rhythm. Then you can play around and
20:15
make smart bets on your own. You can tail, you can fade, do
20:17
whatever you want. But there's great edges here
20:19
within the rhythm app. So I want you first to go
20:21
download that rhythm app. You can do it by just going to
20:25
the top of my Twitter page at Josh under Score Insights and
20:28
click that pin tweet where there's a custom link to sign up
20:31
for rhythm. Or if you're on Spotify, you can
20:33
just click the custom rhythm link to get yourself linked up
20:36
here with that, with that referral.
20:39
But for tonight, I'm going to go in a little bit bit of a
20:42
different direction. So a lot of the player props
20:44
that I've been targeting on Rhythm with some decent success
20:47
have been combos and overs. So remember we had our Struce
20:51
over. You know who else have we had?
20:53
Jaime Hawke is over points and rebounds.
20:55
There's one tonight that I found a pretty good edge on and it's a
20:58
bit of a contrarian play. So it is a part of the Magic and
21:01
Cavs game, which by the way that series is tied 22 and I am
21:05
holding a Cavs series ticket so they better win tonight.
21:08
Cavaliers are about a five point favorite.
21:10
They open -4, 1/2 at some shops they've ticked up a little bit.
21:13
The total has gone up. I was maybe leaning over here
21:16
but with my luck in totals I'm going to lay off and it's going
21:19
to hit but if I play it, it'll lose.
21:21
That's how it's gone recently. But anyway, total open like 200.
21:23
It's up to like two O 1 1/2 so it looks like there is some over
21:27
money there. But there's a player prop here
21:29
that has a great rhythm edge and it is Darius Garland, the point
21:33
guard for the Cleveland Cavs under 9 1/2 combined rebounds
21:40
and assists. So rhythm is projecting for
21:43
tonight with Darius Garland 6.8 rebounds and combined assists.
21:48
So that is nearly a three, three-point or three, you know,
21:51
rebound, assist difference there again, 9 1/2 under.
21:55
They're projecting 6.8. We can round that up to seven.
21:58
You're still at a, you know, 2 1/2 point difference there.
22:00
But if you look at Darius Garland in game one, he had to
22:03
combine 11, so it would have gone over.
22:06
But in game two he had to combine 7.
22:08
In game three he had to combine 9.
22:09
In game four he had to combine nine.
22:12
He has gone under 9 1/2 rebounds and assists combined.
22:15
In four of his last five games, he's gone under 9 1/2 rebounds
22:20
and assists. Seven of his last 10 Rd. games,
22:24
I'm sorry. Seven of his last home games, I
22:26
should say. And then also the Magic are the
22:28
number 2 defensive efficiency team in the NBA.
22:32
So he's going up against a really stiff defense here.
22:35
He's gone under this number quite a bit here recently, and
22:37
in the series he's gone under in three or four games.
22:40
So rhythm is projecting. Again, 6.8 combined rebounds and
22:44
assists. We're going to go under 9 1/2.
22:46
Now shop round. I got that under 9 1/2 at -130.
22:50
So let's go Garland under 9 1/2 rebounds and assists.
22:53
Hopefully rhythm can come through for us with a winner
22:56
here for tonight. Now that about does it for the
22:59
pod, but of course leave you guys with a couple things here
23:01
before we finish up Episode 33 of the all Systems Go Pod number
23:04
one, can you help me to grow this podcast as we try to teach
23:09
the data-driven model. Looking at line movement system,
23:11
matches, bet splits, trying to make smart bets based on reading
23:14
the market, not based on what we think or want or hope will
23:17
happen. No opinion based betting, just
23:19
following the data. So #1 if you want to help me
23:22
grow this pod, first, thank you for listening.
23:24
Secondly, can you please give this pod a five star review?
23:28
Whether you're on Spotify or iTunes, click five stars.
23:30
That will really go a long way to helping us rise up up the
23:33
ranks, which has been happening, which is great.
23:35
Of course we want to recommend this pod to a friend or follow
23:38
the pod. Whether you know how you can
23:39
follow on Spotify or iTunes, that will be great as well.
23:42
Or if you also want to retweet it or like it.
23:44
When I tweet it out from my account at Josh under score
23:47
Insights or the All Systems Go Twitter page, that would really
23:50
help to engage, engage the pod with more people.
23:53
So that would mean a lot to me guys.
23:55
Secondly, if you enjoy these breakdowns, obviously I hope
23:59
they all win. They all won't because that's
24:01
just betting you're not going to win every time.
24:03
Maybe some breaks don't go your way even though you beat the
24:05
closing line like last night with our totals.
24:07
But do you enjoy the updates here?
24:09
Do you enjoy me breaking down these games from a data-driven
24:12
perspective? Again, you can tail fade, do
24:13
whatever you want, but has to become a staple of your day.
24:17
Something you consult, Something you are interested in hearing
24:19
about each day. Looking at games from a
24:22
data-driven perspective, taking your bias, leaving that at the
24:24
door, looking at line moves, system matches, bet splits,
24:28
going contrarian you know, looking at fading, trendy dogs,
24:32
dog to fave line moves, flat bedding, no parlaying.
24:35
If any of that is the case and you want to learn more about
24:37
data-driven betting, then I have something for you.
24:40
You can go buy my book. Pick up a copy of the Everything
24:43
Guide to Sports Betting. You can get it on Amazon.com.
24:45
Just type in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting on
24:47
Amazon. It's got everything I've learned
24:49
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
24:51
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
24:53
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
24:56
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
24:59
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
25:01
Betting. So if you want to pick one up
25:02
for Father's Day or somebody's, you know, birthday or you have
25:07
no idea what to get somebody for, you know, I don't know
25:10
their anniversary whatever it may be 20 bucks.
25:13
The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
25:15
I I would meant sure to say that it would be a pretty good gift
25:17
better than getting a pair of you know, a flannel shirt or
25:20
some underwear. Got to get them the Everything
25:21
guide to sports betting. But that about does it,
25:23
everyone, of course. Whether I see you at the Borgata
25:26
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, The Brook in New
25:29
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
25:31
Down in Connecticut. At the Encore in Boston or Plain
25:33
Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
25:36
Or my neck of the woods, of course, in Massachusetts.
25:38
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
25:41
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
25:43
Where the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
25:45
Or sweating sharp contrarian plays Jumping in the stadium
25:48
swim pool at Circa, getting a victory burger at the end of the
25:51
night, wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
25:53
You're going to show me a Dallas Stars ticket coming through for
25:56
the team. A Nats plus 1/20 plus plus
25:59
money, dog. Whatever you do, though, Celtics
26:02
over, Pelicans over. Come on, man, we beat the
26:04
closing line and you can't even come close to going over those
26:06
numbers. Just pathetic.
26:08
But hey, we're going to bounce back.
26:09
Have a winning, winning night here tonight.
26:11
So leave you with this. Stay sharp, stay contrarian, Bet
26:15
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
26:16
house. Always be with the smart money,
26:18
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
26:21
Of course not. But remember, we're always
26:22
playing that long game. And if we can consistently find
26:25
games that fit our model against the public, with the house, with
26:28
the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get some closing
26:32
line value. If we can do that, we're going
26:33
to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the sweats, everyone.
26:37
Have a fantastic Tuesday. Be back at it tomorrow for
26:40
episode 34, the David Ortiz edition of the All Systems Go
26:44
Sports Betting Podcast, presented and powered by rhythm.
26:47
Have a great Tuesday, everyone. And tomorrow it's my birthday.
26:50
Let's have a good night. Good luck everybody.